GBP/JPY Forecast May 8, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rally during the day on Friday after initially dropping all the way down to the 144.80 region. Now that we have snapped back and have reach towards the 146 level, looks as if the market is going to continue to go much higher over the longer term. I believe that buying dips will continue to be a very strong trading tactic, as it has been since late April. The market will probably target the 150 handle given enough time, as it is a large, round, and juicy target for buyers. Remember, this pair tends to be very sensitive to risk appetite, which seems to be picking up after the stronger than anticipated jobs number out of the United States. With that in mind, it makes sense that this pair will continue to strengthen not only because of the risk appetite factor, but also the fact that the British pound has seen quite a bit of bullish pressure as of late.

Buying dips

Buying dips going forward I think is the best way to look at this market on short-term charts. On the other hand, if you can hang on to the trade for any real length of time, you may find yourself in a buy-and-hold type of mentality. Either way, I believe that the 145 level should now offer a bit of a floor in this market as we have seen an impulsive move higher during the day on Friday. Because of this, selling just can’t be done. I think that the British pound will continue to outshine most G 10 currencies, and that the Japanese yen will continue to sell off. While I am recording this, 146 is hanging tough, but I feel it’s only a matter of time before we get above there.

GBP/JPY  Video 08.5.17

GBP/JPY Forecast May 5, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the session on Thursday, initially dipped them below the 145 handle but then finding enough buying pressure to continue to the upside. The market looks like it is going to continue to be choppy but it also is in a longer-term uptrend, and that of course favors buying on the dips anyway. I think that the 146 level will continue to be the overall target, and the 145 level should offer a nice support level. I believe in the longer-term validity of this market, but keep in mind that the GBP/JPY pair tends to be very risk sensitive, so the jobs number today of course will have a significant effect on how the market plays out. If we break down below the blue 72 hour moving average, the market will offer more selling pressure, but currently I believe that this is a market that you have to buy and cannot sell.

Risk appetite

Pay attention to the overall moves in the stock markets as they have a significant effect on how this pair moves, and gives us a clear indication of how traders around the world feel about taking risk. The more buying pressure that we get in those markets, the more likely we are to see traders jump into this one. Either way, I think that we will continue to see quite a bit of choppiness but obviously, an upward bias has been the case for quite some time. The announcement will cause a significant move one way or the other in this pair as it typically does, but I still favor the upside overall. Because of this, looking for support of levels underneath might be nice buying opportunities in a market that still has much higher to go.

GBP/JPY  Video 05.5.17

Forex Trading Signals – May 4, 2017

  • Neutral models prevail across the table for traders’ favourite pair, the Euro/Dollar, which sees 5 neutral signals in the short-term, 6 in the mid-term and 4 in the long-term, but the interbank is actually quite bullish at more than 21% long.
  • The Cable sees 4 neutral models on its hourly chart. The 4-hour scale is mostly bearish, and the 24-hour chart is back to neutral. As to the interbank, it is also neutral at less than 3% long, matching the 1 and 24-hour models.

  • 4 studies predict no major price changes on Dollar/Yen’s short-term chart, while bullish signals dominate in the mid and long term. The interbank is neutral at less than 15% long, supporting the 1-hour studies.
  • Pound/Yen also has 4 neutral studies on its 1-hour chart. The 4 and 24-hour scales turn bullish with 4 and 5 signals, respectively, but the interbank is neutral at less than 5% long, and it backs up the short-term models.
  • And Euro/Yen sees 6 buy prompts in the short-term. The mid-term is, somewhat confusingly, split between red and green technicals, and the daily outlook is overwhelmingly bullish. In contrast, the interbank is neutral at less than 8% short.

GBP/JPY Forecast May 4, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound had a very eventful session during the day on Wednesday, as the 145 level of course attracts quite a bit of attention. I think that longer-term, we will continue to see buyers but it is going to be difficult to hang on to the volatility for most people. I believe that this is a “buy-and-hold” situation, and that every time we dip, it will find support given enough time. The 144.50 level underneath should be a bit of a “floor”, and this of course is a reasonable place to look for value in an uptrend. If we can break above the 145.40 level, I think that the market then reaches towards the 146 handle. Longer-term, I’m looking for moved to the 150 level above.

Risk appetite

This market is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and it’s easy to see what that is by looking at the stock markets around the world. This is especially true with the Nikkei 225, and the S&P 500. If they show signs of strength, I think that this market will continue to attract people going to the long-term. The 24, 48, and 72 hour moving averages all continue to show bullish pressure, so I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market. The market tends to move rather quickly, so by getting long this market on short-term dips you are prepared for the explosive moved that will more than likely occur. This is one of the most volatile markets that we cover, but when it makes up its mind, the rewards can be great. The one thing that you will have to pay attention to is that you have stops in place as obviously, a can work in the opposite direction as well. Currently, I believe that the buyers run the show.

GBP/JPY  Video 04.5.17

Forex Trading Signals – May 3, 2017

  • Euro/Dollar has 4 sell signals in the hourly scale, 5 neutrals in the mid term and most of the indicators are green in the long term, which is in line with the close to 21% long interbank.
  • Pound/Dollar’s 1 and 4 hour charts both bring 5 neutral signals, but outlook shifts to bullish in the daily picture. The only 3% long interbank is neutral, just like the 1 and 4 hour studies.

  • There’s green across all three time scales for the Dollar/Yen, but interbank sentiment is neutral at only 7% long.
    Pound/Yen has 5 neutrals in the short term, but most of the technicals are bullish in the mid and long terms. The less than 1% short interbank is neutral, just like the hourly studies.
    There are 5 neutrals in the Euro/Yen’s hourly chart. Mid and long term indicators bring 5 and 7 buy signals respectively. The only 4% long interbank is neutral, matching the short term models.

GBP/JPY Forecast May 3, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair continues to see bullish pressure during the Tuesday session, as we reached towards the 145 handle. A break above there happened early in the day, but we did see enough resistance to turn things around slightly. I still believe in the bullish pressure and the buying opportunity, especially on dips. The 24-hour moving average underneath continues to offer support, and I believe that dips will offer value that we can take advantage of. A break above the recent high should send this market towards the 146 handle next. A break above there should send this market much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 150 level.

I don’t have any interest in selling this pair, unless there is a general “risk off” attitude in the markets overall. If the stock markets around the world start selling off, then this market will do the same. A breakdown below the 72-hour moving average, pictured in blue on the chart, would be a very bearish sign in at that point I would have to think that a longer-term pullback is coming. Nonetheless, the British pound has broken out to the upside for a longer-term move against all currencies that I see, so I don’t understand that the Japanese yen would be any different. I believe that longer-term this offers quite a bit in the way of opportunity, but you’re going to be dealing with a significant amount of volatility on the way to the upside. Pay attention to the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, and of course the Nikkei 225 as they all represent a good look at global risk appetite. Bonds falling tend to help this pair as well, as it shows more risk appetite. Expect choppy conditions, but I still believe in the bullish picture.

GBP/JPY  Video 03.5.17

GBP/JPY Forecast May 2, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound continues to grind higher against the Japanese yen, as risk sentiment seems to be a little bit stronger. As you can see on the hourly chart, we have a nice uptrend line that we have been following, and it looks as if we are going to go looking for the 145 handle above. This of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and could cause a bit of bearish pressure. This is an area that’s been important on the daily charts as well, so quite frankly it would not surprise me at all to see this market test that level, and then turned right back around to find buyers at lower levels. I don’t think that selling this market is something that’s viable, as I feel it is only a matter of time before the buyers would return. So, having said that, I look at dips as buying opportunities and of course value that can be taken advantage of.

The market breaking above the 145 level would be a very strong sign, reaching towards the 150 level over the longer term. Remember that this pair tends to be very sensitive, and of course moves very erratically at times. You have to take a bit of a longer-term outlook on this market, as the volatility can be extreme. Having said that though, the rewards are much higher. You have to be able to deal with the volatility to be involved but I think there are plenty of reasons to think that we go higher over the longer term. I believe that the 143 level will be massively supportive for example, so pullback should only offer value that you can take advantage of and build up a larger position. Once we break above 145, we could have quite a bit of momentum unleashed.

GBP/JPY  Video 02.5.17

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair gapped higher during the week, fell to test the 140 handle, and then bounced rather significantly. In fact, at the close of the week we are approaching the 145 handle, and could go even further than that. This is a very explosive moved, and obviously, we have turned the tide to the upside and should continue to find buyers on dips. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market. I think that we will probably reach towards the 149-handle next. “Buy on the dips” will continue to look attractive.

GBP/USD Video 01.5.17

GBP/JPY Forecast May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY pair traded lower initially during the day on Friday but found enough support to turn around and continue the grind higher. In fact, we are starting to get close to the 145 level which has been my target. I think that could cause a little bit of a pullback, but quite frankly that pullback should be a buying opportunity. We are bit overextended, so having said that, it’s likely that the markets will continue to find buyers, but at lower levels. A lot of traders will have missed this move, and want to get involved.

GBP/JPY  Video 01.5.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 28, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound rallied against the Japanese yen again on Thursday, breaking the top of the shooting star from the previous session. This is always a very bullish sign, so I think we will continue to grind higher. However, we are bit overstretched so looking for short-term pullbacks might be the best way to trade this market. I don’t have any interest in shorting, at least not yet. I still believe that the market is going to try to get to the 145 handle above, and that is my longer-term target. Having said that, the easy money has already been made.

GBP/JPY  Video 28.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 27, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound has broken above the 143 level against the Japanese yen as we continue to shoot straight up in the air. This is one of my favorite markets now, and I believe that short-term pullbacks will continue to offer buying opportunities. Currently, I’m targeting the 145 area, as it is a significant amount of resistance. I believe that the market has broken out to the upside for a longer-term move, so I have no interest in shorting whatsoever. One of my most favorite currencies in the world right now is the British pound.

GBP/JPY  Video 27.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 26, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell on Tuesday but found enough support at the 140 level to turn things around and form a massive green candle. I believe that the market is going to try to break out to the upside even further, perhaps reaching as high as the 145 handle. The 140 level should now be the “floor” in this market, so having said that I feel that we are entering a longer-term uptrend now. The British pound has broken out everywhere, so this pair of course isn’t going to be any different longer term.

GBP/JPY  Video 26.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 25, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair gapped to the upside on Monday, and then spent the rest of the day falling back towards the gap. The 140 level has now been broken significantly, as the 141 level has as well. Given enough time, I expect to see a supportive action and a buying opportunity in this market as we have broken out and it shows that there is real underlying strength in this market now that the French elections have shown a proclivity to reach towards the centrist position. I have no interest in selling until we break below the 139 handle.

GBP/JPY  Video 25.4.17

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of April 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the week, slamming into the 140 handle. If we can break above the 141 level, I think that this market goes much higher. Pullbacks should be buying opportunities unless we can break down below the low of the week. Ultimately, I believe that this market should continue to find buyers as a British pound itself has strengthened so much. Remember that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so you will have to pay attention to stock markets as well. Ultimately, I think the real prize is somewhere near the 150 handle.

GBP/JPY  Video 24.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair found the 140 level to be overly resistive, so we pulled back. At this point, I believe a break above the 141 level is the next sign that we are going higher over the longer term. Either way, I don’t have any interest in shorting this market as we have seen such a massive moved to the upside. A break above the 141 level should send this market looking for the 143 handle. I believe that the 139 level below should be supportive as well. Either way, it’s going to be choppy

GBP/JPY  Video 24.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 21, 2017, Technical Analysis

In this show of strength, the GBP/JPY pair rally during the Thursday session, breaking above the top of the shooting star from the Wednesday session. If we can clear the 141 level, this market could go much higher. In fact, I think it would be a trend change and it looks likely that’s what’s about to happen. Short-term pullback should be buying opportunities, and I have no interest in selling a market that has clearly shown it wants to go much higher. Longer-term, we could be looking at a move towards the 143 handle.

GBP/JPY  Video 21.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 20, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair tried to rally during the day on Wednesday, testing the 140 level. We did pull back a little bit, so if we do pull back from here it could be a nice buying opportunity. Alternately, if we can break above the 141 handle, this market will take off to the upside longer term. I do believe that the British pound is starting to find serious pressure to the upside, so any shorting on a break of the shooting star would be a short-term selling opportunity at best. It will more than likely be volatile, but clearly things of changed.

GBP/JPY  Video 20.4.17

GBP/JPY Forecast April 19, 2017, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the day on Tuesday but found bullish pressure in shot straight through the sky. Because of this, looks as if we are going to reach towards the 140 level, as the market has seen so much in the way of a turn around. I have no interest in shorting, and I believe the pullbacks will be buying opportunities over the next couple of sessions. If we can break above the 141 handle, this market could turn around completely. In the meantime, expect choppiness but a significant bias to the upside.

GBP/JPY  Video 19.4.17

What is Next for the GBP?

Theresa May seeks earlier general elections in UK. The plan is to have them on the 8th of June. The comeback from the Easter holidays is eventful. News from London strongly influences pairs with the GBP. GBP/JPY – well known from its volatility is up already by 200 pips (from the daily lows).

GBP/USD escapes from the symmetric triangle formation. We were anticipating that for some time. The bullish movement gains momentum because it is additionally supported by the stop loss orders from the short side of the market. Sentiment is positive and the first target for this upswing is still 100 pips higher – around the 1.278.

EUR/GBP crashes through a crucial long-term support created by the lower line of the triangle and the up trendline. If the price will close the day below that area, we will have a legitimate long-term sell signal.

GBP/CAD finally adds something positive to the bullish engulfing created on a weekly chart at the beginning of the year. Most of the local resistances are broken and the closest important resistance is 500 higher. That is a good information for potential buyers.

GBP/JPY Forecast April 18, 2017, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially fell against the Japanese yen on Monday but turned around to form a hammer. Because of this, looks as if we are going to try and bounce, but we are most certainly in a downtrend and have certainly seen a breakthrough of resistance recently. Because of this, I’m waiting to see and exhaustive candle that I can start selling. I have no interest in buying currently, and I would also be a seller on a breakdown below the bottom of the daily candle for the Monday session. With this, I remain bearish.

GBP/JPY  Video 18.4.17