Important GBP Pairs: Technical Update

GBP/USD

Although GBPUSD’s gradual recovery from 1.2135-30 multiple-support-zone pleased some of the counter-trend traders, the 1.2325-30 horizontal-line, also including 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent downtick, continue restricting the pair’s upside; however, an immediate upward slanting trend-line support of 1.2265 acts as a trigger to witness its fresh decline. Considering the pair’s repeated failures to clear 1.2325-30, chances of its drop to 1.2220 are more likely on the break of 1.2265 while further downside of the quote below 1.2220 can reprint 1.2180 rest-point. Given the pair continue trading below 1.2180, the 1.2135-30 might act as intermediate halt during its plunge to 1.2090 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. On the upside, a clear break of 1.2330 can activate the pair’s rally to 1.2365 and then to the 1.2400 round figure before fueling it to 1.2480, which if broken enables the pair traders to aim for 1.2530 and the 1.2600 resistance levels.

EUR/GBP

eurgbp

Unlike GBPUSD, the EURGBP gives more confirmation of further downside as a short-term descending trend-line remains present on the chart while the pair slowly dips from 0.9255. Currently, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – October upside, at 0.8860, could act as nearby support for the pair before the pair can test 0.8800 round figure; though, its further declines are confined by a medium-term ascending TL mark of 0.8790, which if broken can fetch the price to 0.8715-20 horizontal support. If the pair keep on declining below 0.8715, the 38.2% Fibo level of 0.8620 and the 0.8560 are likely figures to appear on the chart. In case if the pair clears the immediate 0.8995 – 0.9000 TL resistance, it can quickly rise to 0.9040 and the 0.9130 prior to raising hopes for 0.9250 mark. Should the pair continue trading high beyond 0.9250, the 0.9310 and the 0.9420 can entertain the Bulls.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

GBPJPY presently tests a short-term support-line at 126.85, breaking which it could dip to 126.15-20 and to the 125.80 while pair’s additional weakness below 125.80 can make it see 125.30 and the 124.80 levels ahead of reprinting present month lows around 122.80. Should the pair-bears command its move below 122.80, chances of witnessing 120.00 can’t be denied. Alternatively, 127.80 and the 128.50 can offer nearby resistances to the pair prices, breaking them might favor its upside to a month-old descending trend-line of 129.50. Given the successful break of 129.50, the pair can quickly flash 130.50 and the 131.30 on the chart.

GBP/CHF

gbpchf

Having failed to clear last week’s high around 1.2200, the GBPCHF seems now declining towards 1.2100 re-test, breaking which 1.2025 and the 1.1990, followed by 1.1950, might offer rest-points during the pair’s south-run. Given the pair breaks 1.1950, it might witness 1.1850 and the 1.1700 as intermediate halts prior to revisiting the “Flash-Crash” low of 1.1616. Meanwhile, a break of 1.2200 can trigger the pair’s upside to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of June – October downturn, at 1.2295, but three-month old descending trend-line mark of 1.2330 could restrict its further advances. In case if the pair manage to surpass 1.2330, it becomes capable to flash 1.2490-95 horizontal resistance area.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

GBP/JPY Forecast October 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the session on Tuesday, testing the 128 level. If we can break above here, I think that there is a significant amount of resistance all the way to the 130 level above, some waiting to see whether or not we get some type of exhaustive candle in order to start selling again. I don’t think we’re going to break above the 130 level anytime soon, so at this point in time I am waiting to see selling opportunities going forward. Being patient will be paramount.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the day on Monday and formed a very tight and neutral candle. Because of this, I suspect that there is a massive amount of support just below, especially near the 125 level, which I see as the “floor” in the market. If we did break down below there, it’s likely that the market would fall rather rapidly, because I believe that this is a massive supportive barrier. Rally should offer selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion though, and I believe that the 130 level is the “ceiling” at this time.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of October 17, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found the 125 level supportive enough to cause a bounce and form a bit of a hammer for the weekly candle. This is preceded by a hammer like candle as well, so I think we are going to see a bounce in this pair. However, keep in mind that the 130 level will be resistive, so with this it’s only a matter of time before the sellers return. Ultimately, it might be a little bit tight for longer-term traders to be involved.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 17, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the day on Friday, but turn right back around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a very negative sign, and as a result it looks as if we are going to continue to trade to grind lower. However, the 125 level below is massively supportive. It’s not until we break down there that we can make a longer-term sell position, but rallies at this point in time continue to offer short-term selling opportunities that I plan on taking advantage of. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this market at this point in time, because quite frankly the British pound continues to be punished for the exit vote that we got a while back. I think that the 130 level above is massively resistive, and as a result I think that any time we rally we have to start thinking about exhaustion. That exhaustion will offer nice selling opportunities so therefore we continue to sell every time the markets show signs of exhaustion in the form of shooting stars, bearish engulfing candles, and the like.

Once we get below the 125 level, the market should continue to drop down towards the 120 handle over the longer term. At this point in time, I believe that the Japanese yen could be slightly supported by the Bank of Japan, although its value against the British pound is probably the least of concerns by the central bankers in Tokyo. With this being the case, I think that this pair could be one of the softest yen related pairs, because of the exit vote.

If we did somehow get above the 130 handle, there is a lot of noise all the way to roughly 132.50 above. Any exhaustive candle in that area will more than likely attract sellers but if we do break above the aforementioned 132.50 level, the trend will probably change at that point in time. If that happens, the market could go much higher, perhaps reaching towards 139, and then perhaps even higher than that.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 14, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair had a slightly negative session during the day on Thursday but did find enough support to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. If we can break higher, it’s very likely that there will sooner or later be a selling opportunity between here and the 130 handle. I’m waiting to see whether or not an exhaustive candle appears that I can start selling again. I believe that the market will continue to grind its way down to the 125 handle given enough time. I have no interest in buying at this point.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the course of the day on Wednesday, showing a significant amount of support near the 127 level. However, even though I think that the market might rally from here I think that the 130 level above is going to be massively resistive, and as a result it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which short-term rallies to offer selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion. With that, I remain bearish but recognize that it will more than likely have to stand on the sidelines in the short-term as we get this bounce.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 12, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the day on Tuesday, but then fell rather significantly and towards the 126 handle. Ultimately, I believe that this market will test the 125 handle below and that short-term rallies will be selling opportunities on short-term charts. I believe that the 130 level above is the “ceiling” in this market, and that the market will eventually break down below the 125 level and reach even lower levels from there. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this market as it continues look very bearish.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 11, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell on Monday but turned around to form a little bit of a supportive hammer like candle. However, I think that there is a significant amount of resistance at the 130 level that we would have to break over in order to start buying. At this point time, I believe that sooner or later the sellers will return, and of course a break down below the bottom of the hammer could be a sign to start following them. Exhaustion or break down, either way I’m looking to sell.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of October 10, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke down significantly during the course of the week, but a lot of this would’ve been done during the day on Friday, as it was some type of major move in the British pound. However, we turned right back around to form a bit of a hammer, so if we can break above the top of that hammer I think that the market will then try to bounce towards the 140 handle. A break down below the bottom of that hammer would be very negative, perhaps reaching down to the 120 handle.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 10, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Friday, forming a neutral candle. With this being the case, it looks as if the 130 level above should be massively resistive, as we have seen it so supportive previously. Any type of exhaustive candle in that region should be a selling opportunity as the market will more than likely try to drift back down towards the 125 handle. I have no interest in buying this market at the moment, because quite frankly the British pound is so toxic at the moment.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 7, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the day on Thursday, but bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer. I think we’re trying to form some type of base down here, so pullback should be a buying opportunity as long as we can stay above the 130 handle. Alternately, if we can break above the 132 handle, the market should then go to the 135 handle given enough time. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is trying to work against the Japanese yen, so with that being the case I think sooner or later the support comes back into play.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 6, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Wednesday, turning right back around to form a bullish candle. At this point in time, it looks as if we can break above the 132 level traders may continue to push towards the 133 handle. I still believe that the 130 level below is essentially the “floor” in this market, and as a result a break down below there would be extraordinarily negative. At this point in time, I think we continue to go back and forth with a slightly bullish attitude.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 5, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we continue to see the 130 level offered quite a bit of support. If we can break down below there, I feel that this market can continue to drop. However, it has to be said that most of the XXX/JPY pairs have been rising, so this is more or less a function of the British pound itself. With that, it’s going to be difficult to break down as the natural weakness of the Japanese yen will continue to work against that. I think we go sideways.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 4, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Monday, testing the 130 handle. However, the British pound is struggling in general, so it’s likely that every time we rally we will more than likely find sellers again and again, as the Japanese yen is much more “safe” than the British pound at the moment as we are still seeing the currency markets punish the British pound for the exit vote. With this being the case, I believe that short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion will be excellent selling opportunities going forward.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of October 3, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair had a very volatile week, but eventually settled for a relatively neutral candle. It appears that the 130 level below is massively supportive, and therefore if we break down below it and close below it with any type of strength, this is a market that should continue to see sellers get involved. At that point in time, I would anticipate that the market would probably reach towards the 125 handle. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the candle for the week, we could very well find yourselves try to reach towards the 140 handle.

GBP/JPY Forecast October 3, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Friday, but found enough support near the 130 level below, to bounce and form a nice-looking hammer. However, there is a shooting star from the Thursday session that we have to worry about and as a result I feel that this market is probably to continue to grind sideways overall and just above the 130 handle. A move below that level would be massively negative, as it should send this market down to the 125 handle. If we break above the top of the shooting star from Thursday, it could be a short-term buying opportunity, but short-term is the key word there.

GBP/JPY Forecast September 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Thursday, but found quite a bit of resistance above and therefore we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately, if we can break down below the bottom of the candle for the day I feel that the market should then reach towards the 130 handle below which has been massively supportive. I believe that every time this market rallies, you have to look for exhaustion in order to take advantage of value in the Japanese yen.

GBP/JPY Forecast September 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Wednesday, as we continue to bounce just above the 130 handle. Because of this, I think we are testing serious support, and if we can break down below the 129 level, because at that point time I feel we could go to the 125 handle. However, the Bank of Japan is starting to get a little less than enthused about the strengthening Japanese yen, so be aware the fact that the central bank may trying to do something that cause a bit of a bounce.

GBP/JPY Forecast September 28, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Tuesday, bouncing off of the 130 handle. I believe that the 130 level is a significant support level, and it coincides nicely with the 100 level in the USD/JPY pair. With this, I think that we could get a little bit of a bounce but ultimately we will more than likely see some type of exhaustive candle after that bounce and be able to start selling. If we can break down below the bottom of the range for the session on Tuesday, I believe at that point in time the market breaks down rather significantly.