GBP/JPY Forecast August 10, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the day on Tuesday, but at this point in time there seems to be quite a bit of noise in this general vicinity. Also, you have to keep in mind that the Bank of Japan will continue to make is a very difficult market to deal with as well, so I believe that this will be a slightly negative albeit choppy market on the way down to the downside target of 130. I believe rallies will be selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion above.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 9, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied slightly during the course of the session, but Monday was fairly lackluster. I believe that the 135 level above is massively resistive, so it’s only a matter time before we exhaust and start showing negativity again. An exhaustive candle is reason enough to start selling, and at that point in time I feel that it’s time to get involved. I don’t really have any other trade set up at this point in time, so with this I would be a seller only, but I need to see the market tell me it’s time to start doing so.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the day on Friday, but turned around to form a slight hammer. Quite frankly though, I think the 135 level above will continue to be very resistive, so I believe that it’s only a matter of time before we break down on this rally as we show signs of exhaustion. I believe that the markets look very vulnerable longer-term, and with that it makes sense that we continue to see sellers enter again and again. I have a target of 130 below but it will probably take quite a bit of back and forth trading the get there.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the week, breaking down below the 135 handle. With that being the case, it looks as if the markets are going to continue to go lower and I do recognize that it is a selling opportunity over the longer term. However, there’s a lot of noise in this market so I feel that it’s probably going to be easier to short this market based upon shorter-term charts more than anything else as volatility will more than likely continue to be a mainstay of this market.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 5, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, slicing down below the 133 handle. This is a market that should continue to go lower now, perhaps possibly trying to reach towards the 130 handle. I think short-term rallies will continue to be selling opportunities, at least on short-term charts. Ultimately, this is a market that should be negative on the longer term, but at this point I believe there is more than enough resistance above the 135 level to keep this market to the downside. Ultimately, expect a lot of volatility today.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 4, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair did almost nothing during the course of the session on Wednesday, testing the 135 level. This is an area that has been a bit of a magnet for price over the last several sessions, and as a result we will need to make some type of impulsive candle in order to decide which direction to go. If we can break out to the upside, then I feel that the market will reach towards the 142 handle. A break down below the lows of the last couple of sessions could very well drop down to the 130 handle.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 3, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we continue to hang about the 135 level. This is a market that looks very much like it wants to break down from here, and if we break down below the bottom of the range for the Tuesday session, I feel that the market will probably reach towards the 130 handle below. However, I do think that sooner or later the Bank of Japan will do something to work against the value of the Japanese yen overall.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 2, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Monday, testing the 135 handle. This is an area that of course has a longer-term interest formed and it due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. At this point, it is likely that we could drift a bit lower from here, but quite frankly it using market that seems fairly stagnant at this point in time. Any bounce from here could reach towards the 142 handle given enough time. With this, we are looking for the next move.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 1, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Friday, but turn right back around to slam into the 135 handle. That’s an area that had been previously supportive, and as a result it should be now. However, if we break down below the 135 level it’s likely that we will continue to drop from there. Any type of supportive candle or a bouncer here could be a buying opportunity for the short-term, but I only believe to roughly the 141 handle. With this, expect a lot of volatility in this market.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 1, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the 135 handle for support. This is an area that has been supportive previously as well as resistive. We are most certainly in a downtrend though, so I think it can be easier to short this market off of short-term charts more than anything else. With this, I have no interest whatsoever in putting a long term position on, so with this I feel that it’s only a matter of time before I am selling this market again and again on daily or even shorter-term charts.

Technical Plays of EURGBP, GBPJPY & EURJPY

EUR/GBP

Having failed to sustain the 0.8600 break, the EURGBP ended-up witnessing a pullback during mid-July; however, the pair took a U-turn from 61.8% FE of its November 2015 – April 2016 upside and is presently confronting with 0.8450 immediate resistance, breaking which 0.8485-90 and the 0.8550 are likely upside numbers that it has to confront prior to challenging the previous highs of 0.8627. Given the pair manage to clear 0.8630, 100% FE level at 0.8700 round figure becomes a tough mark for it to surpass, which if broken enables it to visit 2013 highs around 0.8820. On the downside, 0.8340, 0.8300 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.8260, are likely nearby supports that could confine the pair’s downturn. Should the pair drops below 0.8260, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July upside, at 0.8220, might act as intermediate halt, clearing which 0.8095-90 support-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & 50% Fibo level, becomes an important area for the pair traders to watch.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

GBPJPY’s immediate downtrend, as portrayed by short-term descending trend-channel, signals the pair’s readiness to test the 134.15-10 support-line. Though, further breaks below 134.10, also clearing 134.00, might be restricted by oversold RSI and can trigger the pair’s bounce to 137.50 and the channel resistance-line of 139.00. If the pair successfully breaks above 139.00, the 140.10 and the 141.40 might please intermediate Bulls ahead of confronting 143.20-30 horizontal resistance. Alternatively, pair’s excessive decline below 134.00 can drag the prices to 133.20 and the 131.90, breaking which 130.70 & 129.50 are likely following downside numbers to observe. If at all the pair refrains from stopping its south-run around 129.50, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 61.8% FE of June – July plunge, at 123.65.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Alike GBPJPY, the EURJPY also bears the burden of BoJ’s disappointment and indicates additional downside towards 113.70 immediate trend-channel support. Should the pair declines below 113.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June drop, near 112.80, and the 112.50 might hold its additional dips. If the JPY strength drags pair prices below 112.50, chances of its drop to 110.80 and then to June month lows of 109.30 can’t be denied. Meanwhile, pair’s reversal from the current prices needs to break above 115.80 resistance before targeting the 116.75-85 resistance region, including 50% Fibo and the channel’s upper-line. However, pair’s additional run-up beyond 116.85 might find it difficult to surpass two-month old trend-line resistance of 117.50, which if broken can trigger its upward trajectory towards 61.8% Fibo level of 118.50 and to 119.00 round figure resistance.

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GBP/JPY Forecast July 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the session, showing a slightly negative candle. With this being the case, the market looks as if there should be plenty of support just below, especially near the 135 handle. If we can break below there, that would be very negative. In the meantime, looks as if we are simply grinding sideways and bouncing around. Ultimately though, I don’t like the British pound sell you would have to think that there will be some bearish pressure in this market given enough time on bounces.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 28, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the day on Wednesday, but turned back around and form a slightly exhaustive candle. Nonetheless, I think the 135 level is massively supportive, so pullbacks should offer short-term buying opportunities. If we did break below the 135 handle, I think that would be the time to start selling. In the meantime, keep in mind that the Bank of Japan is willing to intervene against the Yen if we fall too far, but I am the first person to admit that it will more than likely be in the USD/JPY market, and any reaction over here would be a bit of a sympathy move.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Tuesday, but bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer. This of course is a very bullish sign, and if we can break above the top of the hammer, the market could very well grind its way towards the 144 level. A break above there sends this market looking for the 150 handle, if not beyond there. While I do not like the British pound in general, the Bank of Japan will continue to do what it can to support other currencies against the Japanese yen.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair did almost nothing during the day on Monday, as Forex markets were quiet in general. There is a significant amount of support below though, so we could bounce, but with the Bank of Japan working against the value of the Japanese yen, that could also be exacerbated by any action that the Bank of Japan takes in this market or perhaps other types of quantitative easing. If we do rally from here, I feel that the market will probably reach towards the 150 handle and could be rather quick. On the other hand, selling is going to be very difficult until we break down below the 135 handle.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally but then turn right back around form a slightly negative candle. It looks as if we could break down from here, and if we do break the bottom of the range for the session on Friday, the market should then reach down to the 135 handle. If we can break down below there, the market should then grind its way down to the 130 level given enough time. I do not have any interest in buying this market, I believe that we are starting to roll over at this point in time.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of July 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, and if we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star, I feel that the market will then reach towards the 135 handle, and perhaps even the 130 handle given enough time. The British pound continues to struggle in general, and as a result I believe that selling this market is the only thing that you can do, and as a result rallies should offer those opportunities.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, but as you can see we are still very much in the consolidation area that we have been in for several days now. We have broken out to the upside initially though, so I think there’s a slightly upward bias in this rather beat down market. The Bank of Japan could very well push as well, but at the same time you have to worry about the British pound being so soft. In other words, we could probably grind higher over the longer term, but it’s not can it be an easy trade.

GBP/JPY Forecast July 21, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair had a slightly positive session during the day on Wednesday, as we continue to grind sideways overall. With this, it looks as if the market is trying to go higher, but there’s quite a bit of resistance above. If we can get an impulsive candle to the upside, I be more than willing to start buying. However, it’s unlikely that we will have an easy way to go, as there are so many reasons the think that the British pound will struggle. On the plus side though, we do have the Bank of Japan willing to get involved if we fall too far.

Important JPY Pairs: Technical Overview

USD/JPY

With the recent risk-on market sentiment, backed by concerns of BoJ’s another monetary easing action, propelled the USDJPY to surpass 50-day SMA for the first time since June start; however, a six-month old descending trend-line resistance, at 107.20 now, still becomes an important resistance for the pair to clear before printing 107.55-60 on the chart. Should the pair successfully trades above 107.60, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of November 2015 – June 2016 downside, near 108.30, and the 109.00 round figure are likely crucial numbers that it needs to pass through in order to revisit 110.50 resistance mark. If the macro-economic uncertainty and the BoJ’s tendency to keep avoiding further measures drag the pair below 105.60-50 immediate support, it can drop to 23.6% Fibo level of 104.70 and then to 104.00 rest-point. Further, pair’s additional downside below 104.00 can have 103.30 and the 102.30 supports to cherish the pair bears, clearing which chances of its south-run to 101.40-30 can’t be denied.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Ever since the EURJPY cleared 116.30-40 horizontal area, it failed to clear a downward slanting trend-line resistance stretched since late-May. The pair presently confronts the same TL level around 117.60 which if broken can trigger its upside to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of May – June plunge, near 118.50. During the pair’s extended rise beyond 118.50, it can show 119.50 and the 120.00 round figure quotes ahead of marking 120.80 and the 121.30 resistances live. Alternatively, 50% Fibo level of 116.75 and the 116.40-30 can continue limiting its nearby downside, dipping below that can quickly mark 115.00 support, including 38.2% Fibo, and the 114.45-50 on the face of pair prices. Should the pair keep declining below 114.45, it becomes weaker enough to flash 113.20-25 and the 112.60 support levels.

GBPJPY

gbpjpy

Following the GBPJPY’s failure to surpass 143.40-50 resistance-zone, the pair dipped to a week’s low; though, immediate ascending trend-line support of 138.50 confined its further downside and is presently fueling the pair towards 141.00 resistance mark. Given the pair manage to clear the 141.00, the 141.60 and the 142.40 might entertain its intermediate up-moves ahead of revisiting the 143.40-50 region. If the pair successfully surpasses the 143.50 resistance, the 144.00 and the 145.30 are likely consecutive upside numbers to observe. On the downside, a dip below 138.50 can drag the pair to 137.30 and the 135.80 support levels, which if broken can recall 134.10 – 134.00 and the 133.00 southward figures.

CADJPY

cadjpy

Since late-last-week, the CADJPY have been trying to break a three-month old descending trend-line, at 81.70 now, but keep disappointing the pair bulls. Looking at the downward slopping RSI, chances are higher that the pair might revisit its 80.80 immediate support soon. If the pair declines below 80.80, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2015 – June 2016 south-run, at 80.00 psychological magnet, becomes important, which if broken can reprint 78.75-65 on the chart. Meanwhile, pair’s upside clearance of 81.70 still needs to surpass 50-day SMA level of 82.00 in order to visit 38.2% Fibo level of 82.60 and the 83.00 resistance marks. Given the pair maintains its upward trajectory beyond 83.00, the 83.80 and the 50% Fibo level of 84.60-65 bear more probabilities to comeback.

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