GBP/JPY Forecast September 6, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell slightly during the course of the session on Monday, as we continue to see quite a bit of volatility. As we pullback, I think there is a significant amount of support near the 135 handle, which of course was both supportive and resistive in the past. Ultimately, some type of pullback could offer the value that buyers are looking for, as we should then reach towards the 140 handle. A break down below there should send the market down to the 130 handle as the 135 level being broken is a sufficiently negative sign.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of September 5, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the 135 handle. Having said that, there is quite a bit of resistance above, especially near the 140 level, so I’m waiting to see whether or not we get an exhaustive candle. If we do break above the resistive candle from several weeks ago, we could very well reach all the way down to the 150 handle. Ultimately though, at this point in time I still think it’s easier to trade this market off of the short-term charts.

GBP/JPY Forecast September 5, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the day on Friday, breaking above the top of the range from the previous session. I still see a lot of noise above though, but I think we will more than likely try to reach towards the 140 level ever the next couple of sessions. Expect psychological and physical resistance in the 140 area, so I think that we could be sellers again fairly soon. After all, that’s on the longer-term trend is still showing itself and therefore sooner or later the sellers will return. Short-term though, we think the buyers are going to run with it.

GBP/JPY Forecast September 2, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke out during the day on Thursday, breaking above the 135 handle. I believe there is significant resistance near the 140 level though, so having said that an exhaustive candle could be a selling opportunity. I believe that the 135 level will be supportive, but if we can break down below there we could pick up quite a bit of downward momentum. This is a market that’s very sensitive to risk appetite, so be aware the fact that the jobs number could make this a very difficult market to deal with today.

Important GBP Pairs: Technical Checks

GBP/USD

Eleven month high of UK Manufacturing PMI triggered GBP’s across the board rally during mid-Thursday. The GBPUSD, not being an exception, also cleared downward slanting trend-line stretched since June-end, indicating further up-moves toward 1.3280 and 1.3365-70 nearby resistances. Given the pair manage to extend its recent north-run beyond 1.3370, the 1.3415 and 1.3480 are likely intermediate halts that it could avail before challenging the 1.3535-40 resistance-zone. On the downside, a dip below 1.3230 TL resistance-turned-support can again drag the pair to 1.3200 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of its late-June to early July dip, at 1.3165. However, a short-term ascending trend-line support of 1.3090 might give rise to the pair’s reversal, which if not respected can print 1.3060, 1.3030 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet on the chart.

EUR/GBP

eurgbp

Unlike GBPUSD, the EURGBP presently struggles around the 0.8400 – 0.8390 support confluence, comprising lower-line of short-term descending trend-channel and upward slanting TL connecting lows marked during end of June and July sessions. Though, oversold RSI levels favor the pair’s bounce towards 0.8430 and the 0.8470 nearby resistances, breaking which 0.8505 and the channel resistance mark of 0.8535 are likely important numbers to watch for the pair traders. In case the pair surpasses 0.8535, the 0.8565 and the 0.8580 can pose as minor resistances that should be broken before expecting 0.8600 round figure. Alternatively, pair’s break of 0.8390 can quickly flash 0.8350-45 and the 0.8310 supports, breaking which it could re-test mid-July lows of 0.8250. Should the pair continue declining below 0.8250, the 0.8200 – 0.8195 crucial support-region comes into play, which if broken can trigger its downside to 0.7980 support mark.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

Among other GBP pairs, the GBPJPY seems more promising when it comes to flaunt the UK currency’s strength. The pair sustained its break above immediate TL resistance and 50-day SMA, indicating further run-up to 138.30 and 139.85 resistances. During its further advances beyond 139.85, the 141.30 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – July dip, near 142.00, are likely consecutive upside numbers to witness. However, pair’s closing below 135.70 TL mark, also confirmed with a break of 135.00, including 50-day SMA, could negate its recent strength and may ignite chances of 133.70 re-test. Should the pair extend its south-run below 133.70, the 132.00 and the 130.80 can act as buffer supports prior to revisiting the July lows around 128.70.

GBP/AUD

gbpaud

With a sustained break of two-month old descending trend-line and 50-day SMA, GBPAUD seems all set to test the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – August decline, at 1.7620; though, a broader downward slanting TL mark of 1.7730, becomes a tough nut for the pair to crack and might trigger its pullback. If the pair surpasses 1.7730, the 1.7930 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.8170 are likely following upside numbers to watch before we can look for 100-day SMA level of 1.8450. Meanwhile, pair’s close below 50-day SMA level of 1.7395 can reprint 1.7250 and the 1.7090 supports before showing 1.7000 psychological magnet. In case of the pair’s additional weakness below 1.7000, the 1.6920 might offer intermediate rest before showing August lows of 1.6720.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

GBP/JPY Forecast September 1, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the session on Wednesday, clearing the 135 level. With this being the case, the market should continue to grind its way higher, perhaps reaching towards the 140 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candle for the session on Wednesday, I feel that the market will probably continue to go lower. Regardless, you can anticipate quite a bit of volatility in this market over the next several sessions as we await the jobs number out of America.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 31, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rallied during the course of the session on Tuesday, as we are testing the 135 level above. This is an area that should be rather resistive, so we can break above there, the market should continue to go higher and then reach to the 140 level above there. Ultimately, exhaustive candles could be a nice selling opportunity, but at this point in time we certainly don’t have that opportunity. Because of this, I am simply observing this market at the moment, but given enough time I think that I will be selling yet again.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Monday, but found enough resistance just below the 135 level to turn things around and form a bit of a shooting star. With this being the case it looks like the market is ready to roll back over, and as a result it’s very likely that we will see this market reach down towards the 130 handle. At this point, there’s no sign that the market should be bought, and it looks like it will only continue to offer selling opportunities.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair had a slightly positive session during the day on Friday, as we continue to bounce around in the general vicinity of the 133 level. I still believe that there is a massive amount of resistance at 135 though, so at this point in time and waiting to see whether or not we get an exhaustive candle after short-term rally the we concerned selling. I believe that the best way to play this market, as we most certainly have quite a bit of negativity when it comes to the British pound overall.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair Tire at the open on Monday, and then continue to go higher for the rest of the week. However, I see a significant amount of resistance above, especially near the 135 level sell I think that even if we get there, more than likely sellers going to reenter the market. At best, we could make a move towards the 140 level before we see massive selling. Remember, liquidity isn’t in the market right now as trader away at holiday, so you can take these moves with a grain of salt at best.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 26, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair pulled back a little bit during the course of the session on Thursday, as we continue to see negative pressure in a market that obviously should tilt to the downside considering all the things that happen. After all, the Japanese yen is a safety currency, while the British pound of course has been punished for voting to leave the European Union. Ultimately, this is a market that I think should continue to grind lower, so every time we show signs of exhaustion after a short-term rally am willing to sell.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair rose slightly during the course of the session on Wednesday, but we still see a significant amount of resistance above. Because of this, I would love to see some type of exhaustive candle closer to the 135 level which could be shorted. I’m not looking for any type of major move, but at this point in time I still prefer to short the British pound overall, and especially against safety currencies such as the Japanese yen. With this, I’m only on the sidelines waiting for the next selling opportunity and have no interest whatsoever in buying.

Technical Overview: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY And NZD/JPY

USD/JPY

Short-term symmetrical triangle on USDJPY becomes helpful for sellers as the quote is near to its 100.00 support-line, with the USD weakness favoring more of its downside towards 99.80 and 99.65 numbers. Given the pair continue trading down below 99.65, recent lows around 99.50 might act as intermediate halt before it could test 61.8% FE level of 99.00 and the Brexit-day lows of 98.85. Moreover, pair’s further weakness below 98.85 can trigger its plunge towards 100% FE level of 97.80. On the contrary, 100.50 is an immediate resistance for the pair before it could challenge a week-old descending trend-line mark of 100.65, which if broken Bulls to print 101.00 and the 101.25-30 on the chart. Should the pair successfully trades above 101.30, chances of its run to 101.80 and the 102.20-30 become brighter.

EUR/JPY

eurjpy

Having failed to clear the 114.00, the EURJPY signals the 112.25-30 horizontal support re-test, breaking which 111.85 and the 111.00 might entertain intermediate bears before dragging the prices to June lows around 109.35. If at all the pair continues declining below 109.30, 61.8% FE level of its April – June slide, around 106.80, can come into play. Meanwhile, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the said slump, around 113.75, quickly followed by 114.00 round figure, might restrict the pair’s near-term upside attempts, which if broken fuels the pair to short-term descending trend-line and 50-day SMA resistance confluence area of 114.65-70. In case the pair manage to surpass 114.70 on a daily closing basis, it can rise to 38.2% Fibo level of 116.50 and then to 117.30 ahead of challenging the 118.70-80 area, which comprises 100-day SMA, 50% Fibo and a broader downward slanting trend-line.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

With the help of immediate ascending trend-channel, the GBPJPY managed to clear a month old downward slanting TL, indicating further run-up to 134.00 round figure, including channel resistance; however, the same could restrict its following advances. If the pair maintains its strength beyond 134.00, the 135.50 and the 136.30 might pose buffer rests during its upward trajectory to 138.00. Alternatively, 131.80 and the channel support of 131.20, adjacent to resistance-turned-support line of 130.50, are likely downside numbers to watch. Given the pair breaks 130.50, 129.50 and the July lows of 128.70 become crucial, which if not respected can trigger fresh downside towards 61.8% FE of its June – July drop, near 123.70 support mark.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

NZDJPY has been struggling between 72.20 – 73.90 rectangle formation since the start of August and the recent upward slanting TL indicates the pair’s revisit to range resistance. If the pair manage to clear the 73.90, also surpassing the 74.00 round figure, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its Brexit-day plunge, at 74.35, and the two-month old descending trend-line mark of 74.80 are likely following upside numbers to watch. In case of the pair’s breakout of 74.80, the 75.30-35 and the 76.00 can comeback. Should the pair reverse from current levels, the immediate TL support of 72.95 and the 72.50 can precede the 72.20 rectangle support. Given the pair drops below 72.20, the 71.85 and the 71.10 can hold following slides before it could plunge to re-test Brexit-day lows of 69.00.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

GBP/JPY Forecast August 24, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair as you can see has found quite a bit of bullish pressure during the day, but in only a limited range. Because of this, I think that the buyers aren’t necessarily too strong at the moment, and will more than likely continue the overall consolidation that we’ve seen, and the 135 level above should be massively resistive. I’m simply waiting to see whether or not we can get an exhaustive candle in order to start selling again. I have no interest whatsoever in buying this market, because there far too many issues in the British pound.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 23, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Monday, as we continue to grind sideways. We are in the middle of holiday season, so having said that it’s likely that we will continue to see a fairly neutral and “hands-off” approach to the markets overall. I believe that rallies that show signs of exhaustion could be selling opportunities, but we don’t have anything yet that makes me want to start selling this market as it is simply going flat at the moment and I believe there should be easier trades out there.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell a bit during the course of the session on Friday, as we continue to grind sideways. I believe that the 130 level below could be supportive, and having said that if we can break down below there it’s likely that we grind away down to the 125 level. Any rally at this point in time should offer selling opportunities based upon exhaustion as well, so having said that this is a “sell only” market as far as I can see. At this point in time, I don’t even have a scenario in which a willing to buy this market.

GBP/JPY forecast for the week of August 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the week, eventually settling on a very neutral candle. However, we are at the bottom of a downtrend, so having said that it’s likely that we could get a little bit of a bounce. Any bounce at this point in time would be a nice selling opportunity in my estimation though. On the other hand, if we can break down below the bottom of the candle for the week, I think at that point in time the market then reaches towards the 125 level given enough time.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the day on Thursday, clearing the top of the shooting star on Wednesday momentarily. I believe that there is a massive amount of support just below at the 130 level, but I also think there’s quite a bit of resistance at the 135 handle. Because of this, I’m looking to sell an exhaustive candle above in order to take advantage of “value” in the Japanese yen. With this, this is a “sell only” market for me, but I am going to have to be patient in order to get the opportunity.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Tuesday, but turned right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. We had formed a hammer on Monday, so this shows that the market is trying to break down below the support. I think if we can break down below the bottom of the hammer for the Monday session, the market continues to go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the 125 handle. With that being the case, I am bearish but I recognize it might be a very bumpy road lower.

GBP/JPY Forecast August 17, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/JPY pair fell initially during the course of the day on Tuesday but turned around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign and therefore it looks like we could bounce from here. That bounce will more than likely just offer a selling opportunity above, based upon exhaustive candles after this bounce. I think that the 135 level above will be supportive, and I believe that this hammer is basically formed as a reaction to the 130 handle. If we can break down below the bottom of the hammer, that is obviously a selling opportunity.