Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Pound Crosses In Focus

Consumer prices rose 10.1% in July from a year ago after a 9.4% gain in June. This was the highest reading since February 1982 as prices rose for food, housing & utilities and alcoholic beverages among other products/services. Although this red-hot CPI report will reinforce expectations over the BoE aggressively raising interest rates, it will also create more uncertainty over the UK’s economic outlook.

We saw the Pound appreciate against most G10 currencies following the report as BoE rate hike bets jumped.

GBP/USD remains in wide range

The GBPUSD remains in a wide range despite the red-hot inflation figures. Support can be found at 1.2000 and resistance around 1.2155. A solid break under 1.2000 may open the doors towards 1.1900 and lower. Alternatively, a strong breakout above 1.2155 could spark a move towards 1.2250 and 1.2350.

GBP/JPY Set to Push Higher?

It has been a roller coaster ride on the GBPJPY. Prices have been volatile, choppy and all over the place. Prices are back above the 100-day Simple Moving Average and slowing approaching 164.00. A strong move above 164.00 signal an incline towards 166.00. If bears are able to pull the GBPJPY back below 162.00, the next level of interest cant be found at 160.00.

EUR/GBP in Downtrend

The EURGBP remains in a bearish trend as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades below zero. Sustained weakness below 0.8440 could encourage a selloff towards 0.8340. A breakout above 0.8440 is likely to encourage bulls to target 0.8500.

GBP/AUD Heading Into Resistance?

Pound bulls seem to be gaining momentum on the GBPAUD with prices pushing towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average. There could be some resistance here as the 100-day SMA resides just above. If these two obstacles can be cleared, prices may test the 1.7650 level and 1.7800, respectively. Should bulls tire and prices sink back below 1.7300, the next key point can be found at 1.7000.

For more information visit FXTM.

GBP/NZD Comes Back to the Bearish Trend

This piece is about the current situation on the GBPNZD, where we have a very handsome bearish situation with the pair respecting all major, price action principles.

End of The Flag

GBP/NZD 4 hour chart

Since the beginning of the year, GBPNZD is in an uptrend. Drop, traditionally was sharp and then we entered a correction stage, which had much lower volatility. Correction is a beautiful flag pattern (black), which actually came to an end this week. What’s remarkable here is that the price, apparat from respecting the flag lines, also respected the Fibonacci lines. 23,6% was a crucial support and the 50% was an ultimate resistance. In the meantime, we were also locally respecting the 38,2%.

One Last Thing

As we said, GBPNZD already broke the lower line of the flag, which technically brings back the major sell signal. Last obstacle to a full bearish mode is a 23,6% Fibo, once it will be broken, even those unconvinced yet could join the selloff. The potential target is at April low. Once the 23,6% Fibo will be broken, getting there should be just a matter of time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Indices Continue the Reversal

Indices and Forex Technical Analysis

SP500 pauses a drop precisely to the 38,2% Fibonacci. Potentially a nice double bottom in play.

Nasdaq with a similar situation but one level lower – on the 50% Fibo.

DAX holds slightly better but here we’re waiting for a bigger impulse, as the price is rather moving sideways.

EURUSD is finally allowing the small correction after few days of aiming higher. It’s precisely on a crucial resistance at 1.075.

NZDUSD climbs higher after the rate rises from the RBNZ. A crucial horizontal resistance is near.

GBPNZD escapes from the flag to the downside, that’s a proper sell signal.

Traders Edge: Market Briefing Video for 25.05.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

New Zealand Raises Rates for First Time in Seven Years, More to Come

The 25 basis point rate hike marks the start of a tightening cycle that had been expected to begin in August, but was delayed after an outbreak of the coronavirus Delta variant and a lockdown that is continuing in its biggest city Auckland.

The increase in the cash rate to 0.50% by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had been forecast by all 20 economists polled by Reuters.

The New Zealand dollar briefly rose after the announcement but fell back to $0.6930, in line with broader market moves.

“It was pretty much in line with what everyone was picking,” said Jason Wong, senior market strategist at BNZ in Wellington. “We’re on a path towards a series of rate hikes and the market is well priced for that.”

Announcing its decision, the RBNZ said further removal of monetary policy stimulus was expected, with future moves depending on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment.

The rate hike puts New Zealand ahead of most other developed economy nations as central banks look to wind back emergency-level borrowing costs, although countries including Norway, the Czech Republic and South Korea  have already raised rates.

In neighbouring Australia, the central bank held interest rates at a record low 0.1% for an 11th straight month on Tuesday.

Economists expect the benchmark rate to reach 1.50% by the end of next year and 1.75% by the end of 2023, the Reuters poll showed.

CAPACITY STRAINS

The South Pacific nation has enjoyed a rapid economic recovery since a COVID-driven recession last year, partly because it eliminated coronavirus and reopened its economy before others.

But with its borders still shut, labour and goods shortages are pushing up inflation, as well as contributing to a surging property market, which has been driven by ultra-low interest rates.

“Demand shortfalls are less of an issue than the economy hitting capacity constraints…,” the RBNZ Committee noted in the minutes of the meeting.

The central bank said headline CPI inflation is expected to increase above 4% in the near-term but return towards its 2% midpoint over the medium term.

Recent COVID-19 restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, and economic activity will recover quickly when the measures are eased, it added.

But economists said the RBNZ may not race ahead with its hiking cycle in view of the current global uncertainty and the Delta variant outbreak dragging on in Auckland.

“(We) remain of the view that further rate hikes will be in 25 basis point increments rather than 50 basis point moves,” said Citibank economist Josh Williamson.

New Zealand abandoned its strategy of eliminating COVID-19 this week, with the government saying it will have to live with the virus and step up vaccination rates to control it.

In August, a central bank official confirmed it had also considered a 50-basis-point move that month, before taking a rate hike off the table altogether due to the lockdown.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Richard Pullin)

GBP/NZD Still Bullish as the Price is Slow

1.9480 is the breakout point of the bullish pattern where we might expect a continuation move. Yesterday, the market was slower but today we see another attempt for bulls to push the price further up. We can expect a bullish continuation move if the price closes above 1.9526 on a daily basis. The target is 1.9665.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

GBP/NZD Bulls are Continuing with Uptrend

1.9480 is the breakout point of the bullish pattern where we might expect a continuation move. The intraday target is 1.9523 but we could probably see a swing if the daily candle closes above it. In that case the target will be 1.9660 followed by 1.9770. The GBP/NZD is showing a confluence structure at the bottom and I only see bulls.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

Dollar Continues The Decline

SP500 is in a pennant waiting for a bullish breakout to set new all-time highs.

Gold is in a very similar situation but here we’re far from the ATH.

Oil aims for the upper line of the flag formation with an appetite to end the bearish correction.

EURUSD is up with a double bottom formation.

GBPUSD aims for the upper line of the wedge. The breakout would mean the end of a bearish correction.

USDCAD drops after the negative price action on the weekly chart.

AUDCAD aims higher after the price escapes from the wedge and climbs back above the 38,2 Fibonacci.

USDPLN drops after speculation on interest rate raises in Poland gain traction. The triple top formation is also here.

NZDJPY continues the upswing after the price broke the upper line of the flag two days ago.

GBPNZD continues the downswing after the price broke the combination of three major dynamic supports.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Reversal on USD and JPY

Stocks are rising higher, again. DAX broke an important dynamic resistance and is ready for the new all-time highs.

Gold is slowly climbing up the stairs supported by the weaker USD.

The EURUSD recently broke the upper line of the wedge and is back above the neckline of the H&S formation. That’s very positive and the buy signal is ON.

The GBPNZD broke a combination of three dynamic resistances. That could mean only a sell signal.

The EURJPY is out from the falling wedge pattern. Sentiment is back to positive.

The NZDJPY on the other hand is out from the flag pattern but also to the upside with a proper buy signal.

The GBPJPY is still waiting for its turn. We are in the middle of the symmetric triangle, still waiting for the breakout.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

New Zealand Dollar end The Bearish Correction

The NZDUSD is in a false bearish breakout from the falling wedge pattern. That is possibly a very nice buying opportunity.

The GBPNZD is testing the combination of three important dynamic supports. A breakout can be an amazing sell signal.

The EURJPY broke the upper line of the wedge and is aiming higher with a buy signal.

The GBPCAD is in a giant symmetric triangle on the weekly chart. We will probably have to wait a long time till until the breakout but it will most probably be worth it.

The NZDJPY is in a flag formation. A breakout of its upper line will bring the positive sentiment back.

The GBPJPY is forming a head and shoulders pattern inside of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout of the lower line (and the neckline at the same time) can be a good bearish signal and a breakout to the upside can be a signal to go long.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/NZD Bearish Continuation Possible

I am already short and have protected more than 350 pips. You can clearly see my shorting levels and the price is following. For the downside continuation we need to see the market breaking below 1.9787. Targets are 1.9638 and 1.9384. In the case markets gets higher I will sell again (no brainer trade) 2.022 zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

New Zealand Central Bank Ends Bond Purchases, Paving Way for Possible Rate Hikes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at 0.25% but cut short a NZ$100 billion ($70 billion) bond buying programme, prompting local banks to bring forward calls for a rate rise to as early as August, which would put New Zealand at the forefront of countries to raise interest rates.

“The RBNZ has absolutely done enough hand-waving today to tick the ‘market-prep’ box for an August hike, with CPI and labour market data set to do the rest,” said Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.

The move comes amid nagging inflation worries globally, with U.S. inflation data rising by the most in 13 years in June, adding to uncertainty about whether such inflationary pressures are transitory.

New Zealand’s pandemic-free economy has been growing on the back of a housing boom and strong retail spending, raising concerns that it may get overheated pushing inflation above the bank’s target and squeeze the labour market.

First quarter GDP swept past forecasts, rising 1.6%. A survey last week showed the business outlook was now better than pre-COVID levels, and hiring constraints and inflationary pressures were starting to bite.

The RBNZ noted that in the absence of further economic shocks, consumer price inflation pressure is expected to build over time due to rising domestic capacity pressures and growing labour shortages.

“Members agreed that the major downside risks of deflation and high unemployment have receded,” the RBNZ said in minutes of the meeting.

“The (Monetary Policy) Committee agreed that a ‘least regrets’ policy now implied that the significant level of monetary support in place since mid-2020 could be reduced sooner.”

CHANGE OF TACK

A rate hike this year would make New Zealand the first developed economy to kick off policy tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia said earlier this month that it did not expect a rate rise before 2024.

The New Zealand dollar rose 1.1% after the announcement to $0.7017. Yields on two-year bonds surged 9 basis points to its high for this year at 1.668%.

“The RBNZ has clearly changed tack to decide that the time for reducing monetary stimulus is very near. The risk of inflation and employment undershooting the objectives has switched to the risk of overshooting should the current level of stimulus remain in place,” said Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB Bank.

The RBNZ slashed its interest rate to record lows in March last year and pumped billions of dollars in stimulus as the COVID-19 pandemic raged through the country and the globe.

New Zealand, however, managed to contain the spread of the virus, with the last community case of COVID-19 reported in February, allowing the economy to bounce back faster than most others.

At its meeting in May, the RBNZ had hinted at a hike in September 2022.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

($1 = 1.4253 New Zealand dollars)

(Reporting by Praveen Menon; Editing by Richard Pullin)

Indices Start a New Month With a Drop

Gold is still holding above the 1760 USD/oz support.

The Dow Jones bounced from the upper line of the symmetric triangle pattern.

The DAX is aiming for the lower line of the rectangle formation.

The EURUSD is back inside the wedge formation, sentiment is back to negative.

The USDCAD bounced from the lower line of the wedge formation.

The EURCAD bounced after Friday’s heavy drop.

The NZDCHF broke the lower line of the rectangle pattern and then tested it as a closest resistance.

The GBPNZD broke from the sideways trend to the upside. This perfectly shows the recent negative sentiment towards the New Zealand’s currency.

The USDHUF tested the broken supports as closest resistances. When the price stays below the resistance levels, a strong sell signal will emerge.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Forex Commentary March 14, 2021

EUR/USD ranges this week severely diminish due to problems within the EUR universe. EUR/JPY remains light years overbought while EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD maintain oversold conditions. EUR/CAD broke its 5 year average at 1.4955 and trades ranges from 1.4955 to 1.4547 then 1.4427. EUR/GBP is oversold however it trades between 0.8740 to 0.8414 to the 5 and 10 year average. EUR/USD cross pairs will determine EUR fate this week to direction. 

GBP/NZD from this week’s close at 1.9374  sits on supports at 1.9330 and 1.9246. Last week vitals from 1.9318 to 1.9188 and the week prior 1.9318 to 1.9176. GBP/AUD from its close at 1.7927 contains resistance at 1.7934 then 1.8134 and last week 1.8130 to 1.7905 then 1.7885 to 1.8130. Both are problem pairs entering into the new week.

Week 7 to massively overbought JPY cross pairs. For the month, NZD/JPY rose 100 pips, barely 200 for AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY, 400 for GBP/JPY and a rare day for 400 pips to CAD/JPY. CAD/JPY beat USD/CAD by 100 pips as USD/CAD traded 300 pips. traditionally, USD/CAD always trades wider ranges than CAD/JPY as CAD/JPY is the follow pair to USD/CAD.

USD/CHF and USD/JPY begin the week deeply overbought while USD/CAD is severely oversold. The strategy this week is long USD/CAD, short CAD/JPY and refrain from trading laggard currencies, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. For problem pair USD/JPY lower must break the 5 year average at 108.98 then 106.43. Above at 109.00’s and 110 is maximum to USD/JPY averages dating to 1999. 

While GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are overbought, GBP/CAD matches EUR/CAD to oversold and GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD as problem pairs. GBP/USD like EUR/USD is hostage to its cross pairs for direction. 

AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD both broke below vital points at 0.9737 and 0.9073. With NZD/CAD’s break lower, NZD/USD’s close at 0.7173 sits 53 pips above its vital break at 0.7120. Overbought NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF will assist NZD/USD’s eventual break at 0.7120. Then AUD, GBP and EUR slide further. 

AUD/USD big break lower is located at 0.7641. AUD achieves this challenge by breaks lower at 0.7716 and 0.7679. 

Gold remain inside 1815 to 1642. DXY 91.43 Vs 92.78 and 89.95 below. The 2 year yield broke above reported 0.1511 to trade 2 points higher to 0.1711. The 10 year yield at its 1.625 close, trades inside its wide ranges from 1.3305 to 1.8448. 

Respectfully readers, I work extraordinarily hard consistently over 17 years to write the most accurate levels, entries and targets, to bring the most accurate data and market concepts. Don’t believe my words as all is documented here.

GBP/JPY Vs GBP/USD and USD/JPY – March 6th, 2021

GBP/USD last week fell 236 pips from 1.4015 to 1.3776 while overbought GBP/JPY rose 257 pips from 148.14 to 150.71.

Known since the 1930’s, the Japanese pegged GBP/JPY to UK Gold for not only economic viability but the first incursion to the western world of finance. The standard to hold GBP/JPY to the UK held throughout Bretton Woods. Upon the 1972 free float, GBP/JPY became attached permanently with high +90% correlations to GBP/USD.

All JPY cross pairs followed with high and positive correlations as AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY while USD/CAD and CAD/JPY became polar opposites as both permanently correlate negatively. USD/CHF and CHF/JPY traditionally also hold opposite correlations.

The Japanese offered not only a double trade but GBP/JPY and GBP/USD as the same exact currency pairs. The same principle holds true for EUR/JPY and EUR/USD, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY and NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. The double trade is permanent for USD/CAD and CAD/JPY.

Why JPY cross pairs remain overbought into week 6 amd not falling with counterpart currencies is the USD/JPY problem to correlations. While GBP/USD correctly correlates to GBP/JPY at +94%, GBP/JPY also not correctly correlates to USD/JPY at +83%. A further problem exists as GBP/USD correlates to USD/JPY at +46 %. All correlations are not only running positive but this situation is the exact same for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and explains why prices remain high and overbought.

Positive correlations are the result of exchange rate prices and relationships to moving averages since correlations are found within the context of averages. USD/JPY trades above vital 105.70,  GBP/USD above 1.3697 and GBP/JPY above 144.80. Correlations are positive because prices trade above respective high / low averages.

Required to assist GBP/JPY to drop is GBP/USD breaks 1.3697 or USD/JPY trades below 105.70. GBP/JPY then decides to fully correlate to USD/JPY or GBP/USD. GBP/JPY in every instant follows GBP/USD as the 91 year correlation and order of currency markets.

Current GBP/JPY trades 1156 pips above GBP/USD and 2506 pips below GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY larger range from GBP/USD becomes 144.08 and 1.5564. GBP/JPY above is located the 14 year average at 155.38 and the 10 year at 148.36.

Prior to the 2016 interest rate changes by the central banks, the market order to currency pair arrangement existed as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF then GBP/CAD.

The new order is arranged as GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY then GBP/CAD and seen as GBP/CHF 1.2855, GBP/USD 1.3820, GBP/JPY 149.86 or 1.4986 then GBP/CAD 1.7292. Much daylight exists for GBP/JPY to trade freely between GBP/USD and GBP/CAD yet 250 pips traded last week from a distance of 1100 and 2500 pips between exchange rates.

Why GBP/CHF and all currency  pairs arranged as Other Currency / CHF dropped from contention as support is due to the uniqueness to the SNB’s interest rate system. Libor is miles from actual interest rates as first comes Saron, Call Money rates and the most vital Debt Register Claims.

JPY cross pairs overall contain downside moves from GBP/JPY at 300 pips and 200 for AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.

USD/JPY for the week is not only light years overbought but the 5 year average is located at 109.01. A good target is found at 106.65.

GBP/JPY big break lower is located at the 10 year average at 148.38. A break then GBP/JPY trades 146.00’s easily.

GBP/USD this week opens between 1.3768 and 1.3840. Below 1.3768 challenges most vital 1.3697, above 1.3840 then GBP/USD travels much higher.

GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD run good and positive correlations at +93% and +96 % for GBP/CAD. For GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD remain problems as correlations run negative at -43% and -64% for GBP/AUD.

GBP/JPY

Included are GBP/JPY moving averages from 5 day to 253 days. The averages are perfect and derived from the ECB. The first number is the day average followed by trading days then the average.

A 20 day average is actually 15 days, a 50 day average is actually 36 days. Trading day averages to factor perfectly start at the beginning of every year then the numbers increase as days trade. A 50 day average is most stable as it only trades 36 to 50 days.

A 5 day average begins Monday at 2 days, then 3 for Tuesday and Wednesday and 4 for Thursday. A full 5 day average only trades on Fridays.

5 Day     5             149.2391

10 Day  9             149.1325

20 Day  15           148.3808

50 Day  36           145.2691

100 Day               71           142.5398

200 Day               143       139.9417

253 Day               180       139.1231

As GBP/JPY trades lower then the averages drop.

Targets

Targets are not only known miles ahead but targets stack to watch trades unfold.

Current targets: 149.7549, 149.8496, 149.5086, 148.1852, 146.0887, 143.7901, 143.0356.

The ECB and most central banks factor exchange rates to 6 decimal places and 4 for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs and I follow the ECB exactly.

Weekly Commentary – EUR, USD and GBP

EUR/USD 1.2061, AUD/USD 0.7657 and USD/CAD 1.2783 decide future and current direction to all 28 currency pairs. EUR/USD and AUD/USD breaks then much lower or much higher. USD/CAD breaks 1.2783 then much higher or a failure to break then much lower.

JPY cross pairs remain overbought and reveal EUR/USD and AUD/USD will eventually break lower and USD/CAD breaks higher. GBP and NZD will then follow lower.

Not a driver to market prices this week are the typical alarm bells written by market writers with specialization in marketing rather than expertise in markets, trading and market prices. Elections, Covid, lockdowns, vaccines, central bank meetings, yields, month-end, Fed, Powell and the Mars rover landing failed to move market prices. Not at the time of release nor in subsequent trade days did prices move except to the degree intended from the start of the day or week.

A market price will achieve its destination by mathematical certainty without regard to outside events yet professional alarm bell ringers are surprised at a rise in yields, no movements to NFP and central bank meetings and to a price that fails to respond to their sounding of the bells in the market square.

NFP and fed meetings barely moved EUR/USD 20 pips in each of the last 6 and 8 months. Whistleblowers month-end and rebalance will be heard this week. Meanwhile, monthly averages haven’t changed in many months and a rebalance nor month-end changes to prices fails to exist as price fail to move enough to require changes to averages.

DXY monthly averages remain inside 89.95 to 91.43, Gold 1815 -1642. EUR/USD traded 1.1900’s -1.2200 in February, 1.2000’s to 1.2300’s in January. The 2 year yield traded 0.11 to 0.23 in the past 9 months. The S&P’s traded 300 points from 3900 to 3600 for February, 200 points for January. WTI traded 10 points in February from 51.00 to 61, and 6 Points for January.

Our professional alarm bell ringers are long on whistles but short on market competency. A Necessary yet least favored aspect to market prices, trades, and economics is the requirement to run and enter data for a clear picture of entries and exits and to understand the economic condition. But market prices and profits were never nor will ever be the ultimate goal to reporting.

The Week

The ultimate revelation to a cautious market this week is found in GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. GBP/AUD at 1.8059 resides inside vital range points from 1.7885 to 1.8130 and GBP/NZD at 1.9318 to 1.9176. Both GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD from oversold last week drifted higher directly into a neutral zone for this week.

EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD however are deeply oversold and contains the ability to travel higher while GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD remain stuck in neutrality.

EUR/USD led the charge higher for non USD pairs upon the break of the 5 year average at 1.1300’s last July and is in the position to take down GBP, NZD and all non USD pairs. GBP/USD must break 1.3600’s and NZD/USD 0.7100’s to assist in a wholesale trend change.

Deeply oversold USD/CHF at 0.9084 broke higher from 0.9001, CAD/ZAR trades above 11.86 and USD/CAD is on the verge of a break higher at 1.2783.

GBP/USD retains slightly overbought status while next highest exchange rate GBP/JPY is deeply overbought and next lowest GBP/CHF also opens the week in richter scale overbought. Same situation exits for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD as EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY are both overbought. NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD offer no assistance as leaders to NZD/USD and AUD/USD direction as both sit in neutrality.

EUR/GBP challenges 0.8732 on a break of 0.8573 or a drift to 0.8400;s. EUR/GBP traded to exactly 0.8728 Friday then lower to close at 0.8655.

DXY remains in a 89.95 to 91.43 range and a break higher at 91.43 challenges 92.78.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Weekly Round Up – February 21st, 2021

AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.

DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.

GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.

EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.

Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.

NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.

Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.

USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.

 

 

USD Weakness at Key Levels

USDCAD, for example, is creating a descending triangle and has tried to break support at $1.26.

If we zoom out to the weekly chart we can see many key levels below and a long way to fall especially if the price of crude oil increases and helps the Canadian Dollar.

We see a similar situation with AUDUSD.

Regarding USDJPY we see that the bearish trend which ran most of last year, has been broken.

We also note that price action is at a key level of resistance just above 105.5 yen with many key levels above.

Looking at the current GBP strength, we see runaway trends against weaker currencies and some opportunities as well with stronger currencies.

For example, GBPNZD is forming a rising wedge consolidation pattern which can often signal a bearish reversal so we will keep an eye on that.

Next week we will take a look at the meteoric rise of Platinum and we see that price action is in a small pullback this morning so let’s keep an eye on that.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/NZD is at the Crossroads

The GBP/NZD is at the crossroads and the price will move either to the upside or bounce lower below resistance.

The POC zone is 1.8840-50 and we should see the price moving up as the price is still technically in uptrend. If we see a bounce, targets will be 1.8915, 1.8950 and 1.9011. However, a close below D L3 1.8840 will possibly target 1.8804 and 1.8744. As the price is at its final support, my bias is to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

New Zealand Dollar Finally Recovers

In today’s Trading Sniper video, we will focus on the strength of the New Zealand Dollar. NZD is coming back to life after rather unsuccessful past few weeks. All this is happening rather without any support from the fundamentals. We did not have any important news from the New Zealand economy, actually if so, then negative as New Zealand stock exchange is halted for the third day following the cyber attack. Currency does not care about that though and the buyers are continuing the shopping time.

We will start with the NZDUSD, where the pair is climbing higher after the bullish breakout of the upper line of the flag. That gives us a buy signal with a potential target on the long-term down trendline. Chances that we will get there are pretty high.

Now GBPNZD, where the price is going lower after creating the head and shoulders pattern. We already broke the up trendline and the neckline of this formation. Sentiment is negative and the price should go as low as to 38,2% Fibonacci.

EURNZD is having pretty much the same situation. We also have a head and shoulders pattern with the already broken neckline. After the breakout, the price fell sharply and is currently aiming the mid-term up trendline. It looks like we will get there pretty soon.

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GBP/NZD Massive Bullish Wave 3 Seems Unstoppable

The GBP/NZD made a very strong breakout and bullish impulse above the 21 ema zone. The current consolidation pattern will probably be a base for multiple higher highs.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/NZD 1 hour chart

The GBP/NZD bullish momentum is strong. More than 20 candlesticks have not retraced back to the 21 ema zone (see green diamonds). This means that the impulse is probably a wave 3 (orange). And that any pullback is likely a wave 4. This is only invalidated if price retraces below the top of wave 1 (red x). In fact, multiple waves 3-4-5 could be remaining.

The next target is aiming at the 2.03-2.0325 zone. A bearish pullback could take place as the new high creates divergence. But a pullback is expected to retest the support zone (purple box) and use it for another bullish bounce and uptrend continuation.

GBP/NZD 15 minute chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter