GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Pulls Back Again

The British pound initially rally during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 1.30 level which of course is a very significant large, round, psychologically significant figure. This large number has caused quite a bit of resistance so at this point it is not a huge surprise to see that we have pulled back a bit. Between the 1.30 and the 1.31 levels, there seems to be a significant amount of selling pressure. To the downside, the market continues to look at the 1.28 level as potential support, as well as the 1.2750 level. Just below there, we have the 200 day EMA which of course is very important to pay attention to.

GBP/USD Video 21.10.20

To the upside, if we were to somehow break above the 1.31 handle, then the British pound will more than likely go looking towards 1.33 level followed by the 1.34 handle. That being said, it would take some type of good news when it comes to Brexit or some other such event. Another possible driver of that move could be the stimulus package in the United States actually being shoved through, but at this point it is still difficult to understand exactly what it is that Congress can do between now and the election.

All things being equal, when you look at this chart it does appear that we are running into a significant amount of resistance that we could very easily find this market breaking back down. Regardless of what you choose or see, you need to keep your position relatively small.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As Traders Still Hope For A Stimulus Deal

Coronavirus Aid Talks Continue

Yesterday, S&P 500 lost more than 1.5% on signs that U.S. Republicans and Democrats will not be able to reach consensus on the new coronavirus aid package deal before the November election.

Today, S&P 500 futures are gaining ground in premarket trading amid renewed hopes for a stimulus deal. On Monday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin talked for about an hour and managed to narrow the gap between the positions of Republicans and Democrats.

Their talks will continue today, and traders hope that they will ultimately manage to agree to a new stimulus package. Failure to reach consensus on the new aid deal could lead to another sell-off.

Brexit Talks Have Stalled

EU and Britain continued to blame each other after they failed to reach consensus on the Brexit deal. However, it looks like both sides are not ready to walk away from the deal, and both EU and UK signaled that they were prepared to continue negotiations.

Despite the absence of any material progress, the market believes that the deal is imminent. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have gained ground in October as currency traders have mostly ignored Brexit risks. Meanwhile, stock traders are more focused on the U.S. stimulus deal and the second wave of coronavirus in Europe.

In this situation, a potential Brexit without a deal could turn into a real black swan event for markets as it looks like nobody is prepared for such a scenario.

U.S. Building Permits Increased By 5.2% In September

The U.S. has just provided Building Permits and Housing Starts reports for September. Housing Starts increased by 1.9% after declining by 6.7% in August (revised from -5.1%). Analysts expected that Housing Starts would grow by 2.8%.

Meanwhile, Building Permits grew by 5.2% compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 1.8%. Back in August, Building Permits decreased by 0.5% (revised from-0.9%).

The housing sector remains a bright spot in the U.S. economy, and the new reports are bullish for stocks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – British Pound Remains Sensitive To Brexit News

GBP/USD Video 20.10.20.

British Pound Is Flat Against U.S. Dollar After Yesterday’s Volatile Trading Session

GBP/USD failed to settle above the resistance at 1.3000 and returned to the 50 EMA level at 1.2945 as traders reacted to news on Brexit negotiations.

GBP/USD got a boost after British minister Michael Gove stated that European Union’s Michel Barnier agreed to intensify negotiations. Later, Britain’s negotiator David Frost signaled that the country would not continue talks until EU offers consessions. This statement put material pressure on GBP/USD and pushed it back below 1.3000.

Most likely, GBP/USD will remain highly sensitive to Brexit news in the upcoming trading sessions.

In addition to Brexit talks, GBP/USD traders will focus on UK inflation data which will be published on Wednesday. Inflation Rate is expected to increase by 0.5% year-over-year in September while Core Inflation Rate is projected to grow by 1.3%.

Currently, Britain is fighting against the second wave of coronavirus, and it is interesting to see whether problems on the virus front put pressure on prices. Previously, Bank of England stated that it did not rule out an adoption of negative interest rate policy.

Just like other major central banks, Bank of England is trying to bring inflation to the 2% mark. If the inflation reports are weaker than expected, the odds of negative rates will increase.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd october 20 2020

GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the 50 EMA at 1.2945. In case GBP/USD manages to stay above the 50 EMA, it will have a chance to develop additional upside momentum and get to the test of the highs of the previous trading session near 1.3030.

I’d note that GBP/USD has mostly ignored the resistance at 1.3000 in recent sessions but there’s a chance that it may still face some resistance at this level on the way up.

In case GBP/USD moves above the resistance at 1.3030, it will head towards October highs near 1.3070.

On the support side, the nearest support level for GBP/USD is located at 1.2890. If GBP/USD gets below this level, it will gain downside momentum and decline towards the next support at 1.2815.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves U.S Politics, COVID-19, and Brexit in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action early on, with the PBoC also in the spotlight.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets also responded to the lack of progress on Capitol Hill.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In the 3rd quarter, the NZIER Business Confidence

According to the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion,

  • A net 40% of firms expect business conditions to deteriorate in the 3rd quarter, compared with 63% in the previous quarter.
  • The building sector was the most confident, with a net 7% of firms expecting an improvement in the economy near-term.
  • Other sectors were more cautious. While manufacturers were less pessimistic, the service sector was the most pessimistic. A net 49% of services firms expect a worsening in general economic conditions in the coming months.
  • Uncertainty continues to plague the services sector after the adverse effects of lockdown and border restrictions.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66047 to $0.66027 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.30% to $0.6586.

For the Aussie Dollar

The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes drew interest early this morning.

Salient points from the minutes included:

  • Members observed that the global economy was recovering but that most economies were still some way off pre-pandemic output levels.
  • The continuation of the recovery was dependent upon the containment of the virus.
  • China’s economic recovery was the most advanced, while globally, inflation remained very low and below central bank targets.

Domestically,

  • While Australia saw its largest economic contraction since the 1930s, members noted that the decline in output had been smaller than expected.
  • Labour market conditions had improved, with the unemployment rate likely to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.
  • The RBA expects both unemployment and underemployment to remain high for an extended period of time.
  • Members considered that the economy would need fiscal and monetary support for some time.
  • Members also noted that the effects of monetary policy easing had been impaired as a result of restrictions on activity in parts of the economy.
  • As the economy opens up, however, members considered it reasonable to expect further monetary policy easing to gain more traction.
  • The Board also considered the nature of the forward guidance regarding the cash rate. Given the higher level of uncertainty about inflation dynamics, the Board agreed to place more weight on actual, not forecast, inflation for its decision-making.
  • Members also indicated that they would like to see more than just progress towards full employment before considering an increase in the cash rate.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70559 to $0.70582 upon release of the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.44% to $0.7043.

Out of China

The markets are expecting that the PBoC will leave Loan Prime Rates unchanged this morning. Currently, the 1-year LPR sits at 3.85%, with the 5-year at 4.65%.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.10% ¥105.54 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures for September are due out of Germany.

We don’t expect too much influence on the EUR, however, with COVID-19 numbers and any Brexit chatter in focus.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1771.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave any further chatter on Brexit and updates on COVID-19 in focus.

While Downing Street announced an end to negotiations, the markets are expecting talks to resume. Boris Johnson left the door open for further talks, though it remains to be seen whether the EU will compromise…

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.2948.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

September building permits and housing starts are due out later this afternoon.

Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect the markets to brush aside the numbers.

The focus will be on the U.S Presidential Election polls, the Senate polls, and chatter from Capitol Hill.

Expect updates on COVID-19 to also influence on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 93.404.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead. There are no key stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 and U.S politics on the day. A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases will continue to test support for the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3190 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar Comes Back to the Bearish Territory

Nasdaq is still below dynamic and horizontal resistance

SP500 is on a good way to break crucial levels and go higher

DAX sharply bounces from the 12960 points

Dollar Index ignores the inverse head and shoulders and creates a flag. Situation here is bearish

EURUSD are flirting with important dynamic resistance

GBPUSD are one step from breaking 1,3 – the most important level in the past few weeks

AUDUSD with a small bullish correction but the main sentiment is very negative

EURAUD makes another attempt to escape from the long-term rectangle

EURCHF breaks crucial support and later tests it as a resistance. Pretty standard price action move

Gold tries to go higher but the upper line of the pennant looks well defended

GBP/USD Price Forecast -British Pound Testing Major Figure

British pound traders started buying again at the beginning of the week on Monday, reaching towards the 1.30 level. Ultimately, the market continues to pay attention to this round figure in order to get some type of guidance. Quite frankly, with Brexit out there still causing headaches for a lot of traders, I believe that this is a market that will remain very volatile. The 1.31 level above is going to be the top of the overall range, but clearly the 1.30 level has been an area that has attracted a lot of attention.

GBP/USD Video 20.10.20

To the downside I see the 1.29 level offering a little bit of support, as well as even more support down at the 1.2750 level. That being said, the 200 day EMA is near there as well so that could cause a bit of support as well. Ultimately, I think that the market is going to continue to chop back and forth as we see a lot of noise. I do believe that the British pound has very serious risk out there when it comes to the idea of Brexit going right or wrong, and of course the US dollar looks to be making an argument to stabilize.

At this point, I do think that we are more likely to pull back then go higher, but quite frankly the real move will come later once we finally get some type of resolution to whether or not there is going to be a deal when it comes to Brexit. In the meantime, expect the latest headline or rumor to move the market back and forth as we continue to see volatility pick up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stimulus Hopes Keep Stocks Afloat

The dollar was little changed against its major peers, gold traded slightly higher and crude oil fluctuated ahead of today’s OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Meeting.

China’s Q3 missed expectations

China’s GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 compared to last year, coming up short of market expectations for 5.2% growth. Despite the miss, China remains the only major economy to post growth for the first nine months of 2020. Other indicators are also pointing towards a broader recovery which could be reflected in GDP for the final quarter of the year, if sustained.

Fixed asset investments turned positive for the year, increasing 0.8% in the first nine months of 2020. Retail sales rose 3.3% year-on-year in September in a clear indication that consumers are confident enough to open their wallets again. Finally, also released today was the industrial output figure which was another bright spot, growing 6.9% in September, the fastest since December 2019. This should make China more appealing to investors as fundamentals are catching up with stock market performance, while most major economies still have a tough road ahead towards full recovery.

Stimulus Hope

Market participants are fed up with US politicians as the deadline for coronavirus relief continues to be pushed further out, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi setting this Tuesday as the latest line in the sand. A stimulus package is certainly required at the moment with US infections topping 50,000 for a fifth straight day while millions of Americans need aid with rising economic stress. Given recent history, it’s hard to say whether a bill will be approved or not, however the earlier the bill is signed the better it is for households, the economy and equity markets. The slight rise in US Treasury yields and futures are signs of optimism that a deal could be reached before 3 November, but chances of disappointment remain high.

Prepare for a no Brexit deal

The pound moved sharply lower on Friday after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that it’s time to prepare for no trade deal. GBPUSD declined almost 100 pips in a matter of less than a minute after Johnson’s announcement. However, the currency managed to pare the losses throughout the day and closed where it started. Many traders might have been shocked by the Pound’s reaction, especially those who are not used to Johnson’s Brexit statements. Currency markets are simply saying do not believe what he says, as it could be just another tactic he’s using to get some concessions from the EU.

A no Brexit deal means that the Bank of England would take interest rates into negative territory and 10-year yields would drop below zero (they are currently 18 basis points above zero). That’s clearly not priced into Sterling. Markets still believe the base case scenario is a last-minute deal which could send GBPUSD towards 1.35. However, if they are wrong, get ready for a 1,000pip drop.


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GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Resistance At 1.2945

GBP/USD Video 19.10.20.

British Pound Starts The Week On A Strong Note

GBP/USD is testing the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.2945 while the U.S. dollar is flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains stuck in a tight range between the support at the 20 EMA at 93.60 and the resistance at the 50 EMA at 93.75. Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is located closer to the high end of this range.

If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 50 EMA at 93.75, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the 94 level which will be bearish for GBP/USD. A move below the 20 EMA will push the U.S. Dollar Index below 93.50 which will be bullish for GBP/USD.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the UK and U.S. today. In absence of economic news, traders will focus on Brexit negotiations and the fate of U.S. coronavirus aid package.

While UK and EU have intensified their preparations for a no-deal Brexit, negotiations continue. The currency market does not believe in a Brexit without a deal, and EUR/USD is flat at the start of the week while GBP/USD is gaining some ground.

However, the situation may change quickly, and traders should be prepared for a volatile week.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd october 19 2020

GBP/USD is currently trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.2945. If this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the significant resistance level at 1.3000.

A move above the resistance at 1.3000 will open the way to the test of the next resistance near the recent highs at 1.3070. In case GBP/USD moves above the resistance at 1.3070, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the resistance at 1.3110.

On the support side, GBP/USD will likely get some support near 1.2890.  A move below this support level will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.2815. If GBP/USD settles below 1.2815, it will continue its downside move and decline towards the support at 1.2780.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Riskier Assets Find Support, with China Stats, COVID-19, and U.S Politics in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a particularly busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action early on, with economic data from China also in focus. Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics and COVID-19 were also in focus.

Positive chatter from Capitol Hill and hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine supported riskier assets early on.

Nancy Pelosi raised hope of a pre-Election Stimulus Bill over the weekend, while also setting a deadline for talks.

At the end of last week, U.S Pharma Phizer talked of having a COVID-19 vaccine ready before the end of the year.

For the Japanese Yen

Japan’s trade surplus widened from ¥248.6bn to ¥675.0bn in September. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥989.8bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

  • Exports fell by 4.9% when compared with September 2019.
    • Exports to China jumped by 14.0%, while down by 2.0% to Asia.
    • Exports to the U.S rose by just 0.7%, while exports to Western Europe fell by 6.4%.
  • Imports tumbled by 17.2% when compared with September 2019.
    • Imports from China slid by 11.9% while falling by 12.6% from Asia.
    • From the U.S, imports fell by 9.9%, with imports from Western Europe sliding by 14.4%.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.426 to ¥105.443 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% ¥105.41 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

3rd quarter GDP, fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures were in focus this morning.

In the 3rd quarter, China’s economy grew by 2.7%, quarter-on-quarter, following 11.5% growth in the 2nd quarter. Year-on-year, the economy expanded by 4.9%, following 3.2% growth in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecasted growth of 3.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Industrial production increased by 6.9%, year-on-year, in September, following a 5.6% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 5.8% increase.

Retail sales increased by 3.3%, following a 0.5% increase in August. Economists had forecast a 1.8% rise.

The unemployment rate declined from 5.6% to 5.4% in September, which was better than a forecasted decline to 5.5%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71031 to $0.70961 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.7100.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.30% to $0.6622.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

A lack of stats leaves the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 and any further chatter on Brexit.

With lockdown measures being introduced in Europe, any further steps to contain the virus will test EUR support.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1712.

For the Pound

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the markets to react to any Brexit chatter and COVID-19 news.

Further COVID-19 restrictions are expected on Monday, which would be Pound negative.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.10% to $1.2928.

Across the Pond

It’s a quiet day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

With no material stats due out of the U.S, the focus will be on Capitol Hill and the U.S elections.

The markets are looking for a clean sweep, which will bring the Senate elections into focus. As Biden leads Trump in the Presidential Election polls, the Democrats will need to stay ahead in the senate polls to support riskier assets.

On Capitol Hill, any hint of progress towards a COVID-19 stimulus Bill would also support riskier assets on the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 93.697.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats due out of Canada include August wholesale sales figures.

We don’t expect too much influence on the Loonie, however. COVID-19 news updates and market sentiment towards the economic outlook and demand for crude will remain the key drivers.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.09% to C$1.3177 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Week Ahead – U.S Politics, COVID-19, Brexit, and Private Sector PMIs in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 57 stats in focus in the week ending 23rd October. In the week prior, 56 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, housing sector figures for September are in focus.

With mortgage rates hovering close to historic lows, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar.

On Thursday, however, U.S jobless claims figures will influence ahead of private sector PMIs on Friday.

October’s prelim services, manufacturing, and composite PMIs are due out at the end of the week.

Expect the Services PMI to be the key driver. The markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity…

Away from the economic calendar, we are just over 2-weeks away from the U.S Presidential Election. Wednesday’s final live televised Presidential debate will garner plenty of attention as will chatter from Capitol Hill. We can also expect increased interest in the Senate Election polls.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.67% to 93.682.

For the EUR:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Tuesday, German wholesale inflation figures are due out ahead of a busier 2nd half of the week.

On Thursday, Germany is back in focus, with November consumer climate figures due out.

Prelim October private sector PMIs from France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be the key drivers on Friday, however.

We can expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers. A new spike in new COVID-19 cases in France and other parts of the EU may have impacted activity at the start of the quarter.

Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 will need monitoring throughout the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week down by 0.91% to $1.1718.

For the Pound:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Wednesday, however, for the first set of numbers.

Inflation figures for September are due out ahead of CBI industrial trend orders on Thursday.

We would expect the Pound to be sensitive to the inflation figures ahead of a busy end to the week.

On Friday, retail sales figures for September and prelim October private sector PMIs will provide direction.

With the BoE open to negative rates, dire numbers will test support for the Pound.

Of greater influence in the week, however, will be Brexit and COVID-19 news.

The GBP/USD ended the week down by 0.93% to $1.2915.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

At the start of the week, wholesale sales figures for August are in focus on Monday.

We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

On Wednesday, September inflation and August retail sales figures will provide direction.

From elsewhere, expect GDP numbers from China and prelim private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to also influence.

Away from the economic calendar, risk appetite will likely be dictated by COVID-19 and the U.S Presidential Election polls. There’s also the final presidential debate to consider on Wednesday.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.52% to C$1.3189 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of Australia to provide the Aussie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Aussie Dollar firmly in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

Expect China’s GDP numbers and prelim PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S to influence

On the monetary policy front, the RBA meeting minutes at the start of the week will garner interest. There has been the talk of an RBA move next month, the minutes could reveal what is on the cards…

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 2.20% to $0.7081.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

In the 1st half of the week, 3rd quarter business confidence figures are due out. A pickup in confidence would provide support to the Kiwi ahead of a busy Friday.

Trade data for May and 3rd quarter inflation figures will influence at the end of the week.

While the stats will provide direction, however, economic data from China and COVID-19 will likely be the key drivers.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.96% to $0.6602.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Trade data for September will draw interest at the start of the week ahead of inflation at the end of the week.

We don’t expect the numbers to have too much influence on the Yen, however.

The key driver for the Japanese Yen, however, will be COVID-19 news and U.S politics.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.21% to ¥105.40 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

3rd quarter GDP numbers due out on Monday will be the key driver for the Yuan and market risk sentiment.

September’s industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures will also influence.

Barring particularly dire numbers, the fixed asset investment numbers should have a muted impact.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC is in action on Tuesday. The markets are expecting the PBoC to leave loan prime rates unchanged. Any unexpected rate cut could spook the markets…

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.04% to CNY6.6976 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that Brexit negotiations were over. Downing Street added the EU chief negotiator Barnier does not need to return to London in the week ahead.

Following the EU’s attempts to leave the ball in Britain’s court, with Fisheries a key issue, it now rests with the EU to compromise. Johnson has been clear that it would not leave fishing access unchanged, despite Macron’s attempts to strong-arm Britain into yielding.

For French fishermen, it would ultimately mean no access to UK fisheries should Britain leave without a deal…

Also at the start of the week, the British Prime Minister is due to announce more containment measures. With the number of new COVID-19 cases continuing to rise, further restrictions would be Pound negative.

U.S Politics

After last week’s individual town hall sessions, the final live televised debate will take place on Wednesday.

It will be a chance for Trump to narrow the gap ahead of the 3rd November Election.

If past performance is any indicator of future performance, however, it could just give Biden a greater edge.

As the markets begin to write-off a Trump victory, the focus will likely shift to the Senate Elections.

A blue wave is expected that would support further stimulus in the New Year.

The Weekly Wrap – Brexit, COVID-19, and U.S Politics Drive the Majors

The Stats

It was a busier week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 16th October.

A total of 56 stats were monitored, following 43 stats from the week prior.

Of the 56 stats, 24 came in ahead of forecasts, with 21 economic indicators came up short of forecasts. 11 stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 20 of the stats also reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 36 stats, 27 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was back into the green after 2 consecutive weeks in the red. The Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.67% to 93.682. In the week ending 9th October, the Dollar Spot Index had fallen by 0.87% to 93.057.

Market risk appetite waned in the week. There were a number of factors driving demand for the Dollar. A lack of progress towards a U.S stimulus bill and a spike in COVID-19 cases were front and center in the week.

Disappointing economic data and Brexit woes also supported the demand for the safety of the Dollar.

Out of the U.S

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Inflation figures drew interest early in the week. In the 2nd half of the week, however, jobless claims and retail sales figures were the key drivers. Prelim October consumer sentiment figures were also in focus late on Friday.

In the week ending 9th October, initial jobless claims stood at 898k, which was up from 845k from the week prior. The numbers reinforced the view that the labor market recovery had stalled.

A combination of dire labor market conditions, rising new COVID-19 cases, and a lack of further stimulus was a bad combination.

At the end of the week, retail sales impressed, however. In September, retail sales rose by 1.9%, with core retail sales rising by 1.5%. Economists had forecasted increases of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Aligned with the retail sales figures was a further pickup in consumer sentiment. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 80.4 to 81.2 in October, according to prelim figures. The Expectations Index increased from 75.6 to 78.8.

The only negative on the day was an unexpected 0.6% fall in industrial production.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rose by 0.79%, with the Dow and S&P500 gaining 0.07% and 0.19% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Key stats included August unemployment rate and employment change and September claimant count figures.

While claimant counts came in lower than expected, employment fell by more than expected over the 3-months to August.

A 153k fall in employment led to an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.5%.

While the stats provided direction, it was ultimately Brexit and COVID-19 that sank the Pound in the week.

A continued rise in new COVID-19 cases and a new round of containment measures were Pound negative.

More significantly, however, was a lack of progress towards a Brexit agreement, with the EU pushing for more talks next week.

On Friday, Boris Johnson announced that it was time to prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit unless the EU changed its stance. Downing Street also stated that there was no point in EU negotiator Michel Barnier returning to London in the week ahead.

In the week, the Pound fell by 0.93% to $1.2915. In the week prior, the Pound had risen by 0.78% to $1.3036.

The FTSE100 ended the week down by 1.61%, partially reversing a 1.94% gain from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Early in the week, key stats included ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for the Eurozone and Germany.

The indicators flashed red for October. Germany’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 77.4 to 56.1, with the Eurozone’s falling from 73.9 to 52.3. A lack of progress on Brexit and jitters over the U.S Presidential Election weighed in October.

Mid-week, industrial production figures for the Eurozone came up short of expectations, rising by just 0.7%. In July, production had jumped by 5.0%.

In the 2nd half of the week, Eurozone trade data and finalized inflation figures for September were in focus.

Inflation figures reaffirmed market concern over deflationary pressures. Trade data also failed to impress, with the Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowing from €27.9bn to €14.7bn in August.

While the stats provided direction, a marked increase in new COVID-19 cases weighed on the EUR in the week. France and other member states were forced to reintroduce containment measures amidst the 2nd wave.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.91% to $1.1718. In the week prior, the EUR had risen by 0.94% to $1.1826.

For the European major indexes, it was a bearish week. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 fell by 0.22% and by 0.77% respectively, with the DAX30 declining by 1.09%.

For the Loonie

It was a quiet week on the economic data front.

Key stats included August’s foreign security purchases and manufacturing sales figures.

Neither set of numbers had an impact, however, as the fresh spike in new COVID-19 cases weighed on market risk sentiment.

The threat of a reintroduction of lockdown measures pegged back crude oil prices in the week.

In the week ending 16th October, the Loonie fell by 0.52% to end the week at C$1.3189. In the week prior, the Loonie had risen by 0.87%.

Elsewhere

It was a bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 16th October, the Aussie Dollar slid by 2.20% to $0.7081. The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by a more modest 0.96% to $0.6602.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Key stats consumer confidence and employment figures.

It was a mixed bag for the Aussie Dollar. While consumer confidence continued to improve, employment figures were somewhat disappointing.

The unemployment rate rose from 6.8% to 6.9%, driven by a 29.5k fall in employment.

For the Aussie Dollar, it was ultimately market sentiment towards monetary policy and risk aversion that did the damage. There is the talk of an RBA next month…

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

Key stats included electronic card retail sales figures and business PMI numbers.

The stats were Kiwi Dollar positive, with retail sales up by 5.4% and the PMI rising from 50.7 to 54.0.

While positive, however, market risk aversion pegged the Kiwi Dollar back in the week.

For the Japanese Yen

It was also a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar.

August’s core machinery orders and finalized industrial production figures were in focus.

The stats were skewed to the negative in the week. Core machinery orders rose by just 0.2%, following a 6.3% jump in July. Industrial production was revised down from 1.7% to 1.0%.

Ultimately, however, it was market risk sentiment that delivered the support for the Yen.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.21% to ¥105.4 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.31%.

Out of China

It was a relatively busy week on the economic data front following last week’s holiday.

Key stats included September’s trade data and inflation figures, which were skewed to the negative.

China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus narrowed from $58.93bn to $37.00bn, driven by a 13.2% jump in imports. Exports rose by a more modest 9.9%.

Inflationary pressures also softened at the end of the quarter. China’s annual rate of inflation softened from 2.4% to 1.7% in September. Wholesale deflationary pressures picked up marginally. The producer price index fell by 2.1%, following a 2.0% decline in August.

In the week ending 16th October, the Chinese Yuan slipped by 0.04% to CNY6.6976. In the week prior, the Yuan had risen by 1.42%.

The CSI300 rose by 2.36%, with the Hang Seng gaining 1.11%.

GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Pulls Back From Major Figure

The British pound initially tried to break higher during the course of the week but found the area above the 1.30 level but pulling back from that area, we crashed into the 1.29 handle. By the end of the week, we have formed a bit of negativity, but ultimately the market looks as if it is trying to simply figure out which way to go. This makes quite a bit of sense that the market would be a bit confused considering that Brexit is a major issue.

GBP/USD Video 19.10.20

The 50 week EMA underneath is closer to the 1.2750 level, which of course is very important due to previous action, and if you draw a horizontal line at that level you can see that the market has flipped back and forth several times. Unfortunately for the British pound, we are still at the mercy of the latest Brexit headline, so that of course is going to cause major issues. I think at this point it is very likely that we will continue to be choppy so it is more than likely going to be a scenario where we have to trade from shorter-term charts more than anything else. In fact, you can make an argument for a consolidation area between the 1.31 handle and the 1.2750 level.

The other part of the equation is of course the US dollar and as you can imagine there is still a lot of noise around the idea of stimulus, so that something that we need to pay attention to as well. In other words, I think you can count on a lot of noise in this market so the default scenario for something like that is going to be choppiness.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – Continues to Struggle With Big Figure

The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, reaching back and forth through the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will probably go looking towards 1.30 level again, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. By breaking above there, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 1.31 handle, and then possibly make an even bigger move. Looking at this chart, it appears that we have a “zone of support” extending from the 50 day EMA underneath to the 200 day EMA underneath there. Because of this, it looks likely that we will continue to find reasons for buyers to get involved.

GBP/USD Video 19.10.20

If we were to break down below the 200 day EMA underneath, that means we would be trying to take out the 1.2750 level. If we break down below that level, then it is likely that we drop a bit further. With that being the case, I think that we continue to see plenty of value hunting, but we also have to worry about the possibility of the random Brexit headlines coming out and smashing any attempt to recover. All things being equal though, I do think that it is easier for this market arise than fall in the short term, but never underestimate the ability of both British and European politicians to come in and cause major issues with the markets. Brexit is part negotiation, part politics for the homeland.

Currently, we are watching the children argue about seafood, which shows just how absurd the entire problem has been.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher As Retail Sales Increased By 1.9% In September

Strong Retail Sales Report Could Provide More Support To Stocks

The U.S. has just provided Retail Sales data for September. On a month-over-month basis, Retail Sales grew by 1.9%. Analysts expected that Retail Sales would grow by just 0.7%. Year-over-year, Retail Sales grew by 5.4%.

Excluding Autos, Retail Sales increased by 1.5% compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 0.5%.

The better-than-expected Retail Sales report will likely provide additional support to stocks, and S&P 500 futures are gaining ground in premarket trading.

Later, the U.S. will provide Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports for September. Industrial Production is expected to increase by 0.5% on a month-over-month basis while Manufacturing Production is projected to grow by 0.7%.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson Tells Britain To Prepare For A No-Deal Brexit

EU stated that negotiations with UK lacked progress and told London to compromise on key issues or face a no-deal Brexit.

In turn, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that it was time to prepare for a hard Brexit. According to reports, EU officials did not take Johnson’s words seriously and believed that UK will continue negotiations next week.

Meanwhile, the currency market is not buying the idea of a hard Brexit. GBP/USD and EUR/USD are gaining some ground, indicating that traders believe that UK and EU will ultimately manage to reach a compromise deal. The safe-haven U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

A hard Brexit could hurt world markets as it will put pressure on EU and UK economies at a time when they try to deal with the second wave of coronavirus.

Oil Is Strong Despite Virus Worries

Yesterday, oil made an attempt to settle below the $40 level amid worries about new virus-related restrictions in Europe that could limit demand for oil.

However, oil managed to quickly rebound from lows at $39.25. Currently, oil is losing some ground but stays firmly above $40. The oil market has managed to ignore virus worries which indicates that oil gets strong support near the $40 level.

This strength could ultimately provide the much-needed support for the beaten oil-related stocks which significantly underperform the broader market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At 1.2890

GBP/USD Video 16.10.20.

British Pound Remains Under Pressure Amid Brexit Uncertainty And Second Wave In Europe

GBP/USD is trying to settle below 1.2900 as traders remain anxious about Brexit negotiations and the second wave of coronavirus in Europe.

Yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index gained significant upside momentum. Currently, it is trying to settle above the resistance at the 50 EMA at 93.75. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to gain additional momentum, it will head towards the 94 level which will be bearish for GBP/USD.

Brexit negotiations continue, and it looks like UK and EU are ready to negotiate for a few more weeks in order to reach a deal. It is still not clear whether they will be able to reach a compromise deal. This uncertainty puts some pressure on the British pound although the situation may change quickly in case negotiations make some progress.

Yesterday, U.S. reported that Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 898,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 10.02 million. Perhaps, the disappointing Initial Jobless Claims data could push Republicans and Democrats to intensify their stimulus negotiations. However, it may be hard to get any deal before the November election.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd october 16 2020

GBP/USD is currently testing the nearest support level at 1.2890. This support level has been tested several times during recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the support at 1.2890, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.2815. A move below the support at 1.2815 will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.2780.

On the upside, GBP/USD needs to stay above 1.2900 to have a chance to develop upside momentum. The nearest significant resistance level for GBP/USD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.2945.

If GBP/USD moves above the 50 EMA, it will gain upside momentum and head towards the resistance at 1.3000. A move above the resistance at 1.3000 will open the way to the test of the next resistance near the recent highs at 1.3070.

I’d note that the trading action in recent trading sessions was news-driven so GBP/USD easily moved between levels. Most likely, this volatility will continue next week due to Brexit uncertainty and virus fears.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Brexit, the EU Summit, and the Pound – Boris Johnson to Announce Next Steps

The EU Summit

It was all eyes on the EU Summit on Thursday, as negotiators and heads of states entered a final round of negotiations.

Ahead of the Summit, Boris Johnson had set a deadline of 15th October for a Brexit blueprint to be in place.

The deadline was imposed following a lack of progress from the week prior and a heated Macron–Johnson call from the weekend.

Prior to Johnson’s call with Macron, the EU had talked of compromise as the two sides remained deadlocked.

Macron made it clear that access to UK fisheries must remain unaltered, which drastically reduced the chances of an agreement.

For Boris Johnson and British negotiators, there was little progress made towards any kind of an agreement.

UK fisheries remained a stumbling block, with both sides refusing to yield.

On Wednesday, the British Prime Minister had extended his self-imposed deadline until today. The deadline was extended to consider any progress made at the EU Summit on Thursday.

With ‘no strong and credible’ sign of a breakthrough, the big question is whether Boris Johnson will pull the plug.

British negotiator David Frost appears to be of the view that a deal is reachable over the next 2-weeks.

For the British PM, however, another false deadline may prove to be damaging to his credibility. EU negotiator Barnier had mocked Johnson’s deadline earlier in the week.

When considering the EU conclusions released and summarised below, both sides have their work cut out should there be yet another round of talks.

The EU Conclusions

  • European leaders urged the UK government to take the necessary steps to clinch a UK-EU free trade deal.
  • The EU is eager to reach a fair deal, but not at any price.
  • All 27 member states agreed for Michel Barnier to continue negotiations.
  • In addition to UK fisheries, the EU cited other key areas of focus that included a level playing field and governance.
  • With regards to the Internal Market Bill, the Withdrawal Agreement and its Protocols must be fully and timely implemented.

Boris Johnson and the Pound

On Thursday, the Pound fell by 0.79% to end the day at $1.2909. It could have been much worse, with the Pound having visited sub-$1.29 levels before finding support.

For the day ahead, however, it all hinges on Boris Johnson and his view on the outcome of the EU Summit.

EU negotiators believe that talks can continue through to the middle of next month. Johnson’s latest deadlines suggest that Britain thinks otherwise. It is no coincidence that the EU’s mid-November timeline comes after the U.S Presidential Election. There is a view that the EU is stalling on the hope of a Biden victory. Johnson would lose Trump’s support, which could change the shape of negotiations.

Today’s comments from Downing Street will be pivotal, therefore, in what lies ahead.

If Boris Johnson agrees to extend talks for an additional 2-weeks, the EU may consider this as a small victory.

An unwillingness to yield on demands to access UK fisheries and a willingness by the British government to extend talks suggests the possibility of compromise.

It also means that the EU, and not Britain, will have greater control over the timelines for any remaining negotiations. If that proves to be the case, then talks can drag on until mid-November.

While this may ease some pressure on the Pound, it is worth noting that EU member states must now prepare for any eventuality. Perhaps a hint of submission that there may be no favorable outcome to further talks.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.06% to $1.2894, recovering from an early low $1.28864.

A decision by Boris Johnson to pull the plug on Brexit and further talks will send the Pound into a spin. Despite the outcome of Thursday’s Summit, hope has continued to prop up the Pound ahead of Johnson’s announcement later today.

It could be another flash crash or a move back to $1.30 levels and perhaps higher…

GBP/USD 16/10/20 Daily Chart

Brexit, U.S Stimulus Talks, and Economic Data Put the Pound and the Dollar in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action early on.

Away from the economic calendar, updates on Brexit and U.S stimulus talks were also in focus as the markets responded to disappointing economic data from the U.S.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In September, the Business PMI rose from 50.70 to 54.0. In August, the PMI had fallen from 58.8 to 50.7.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66015 to $0.65993 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.02% to $0.6599.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% ¥105.37 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.08% to $0.7088.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized September inflation figures for Italy and the Eurozone and August trade figures for the Eurozone.

Barring a marked downward revision to Eurozone inflation figures, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the EUR.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and Brexit will remain key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.02% to $1.1706.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

A lack of stats will leave the markets to react further to the EU Summit. Covid-19 containment measures, announced in the week, will also test Pound support on the day.

Following a disappointing outcome to the EU Summit, where no progress was made, Boris Johnson is due to make a statement today. The deadline has now passed and no framework for an agreement is in place. Will the British PM pull the plug?

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.05% to $1.2902.

Across the Pond

It’s another busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar.

Key stats include September retail sales and industrial production figures along with October consumer sentiment figures.

Expect the retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to be the key drivers on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics, and updates from Capitol Hill will also influence on the day.

The Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.51% to 93.856 on Thursday.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats due out of Canada include August manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we would expect the stats to have limited influence on the Loonie.

Expect updates on new COVID-19 cases and market risk sentiment to be the key drivers on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.03% to C$1.3225 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Breaking 50 Day EMA

The British pound went back and forth initially during trading on Thursday but found the area above the 1.30 level to be a bit too expensive, and therefore had to break down even further. By doing so, the market has tested the 1.29 handle, an area that has seen a lot of buying pressure recently. With that being the case, the market is likely to see a lot of back and forth, and I would also point out that there is typically a lot of support between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA. In other words, as bad as this candlestick looks, there is still a lot underneath to choose through in order to truly break down.

GBP/USD Video 16.10.20

If there is one thing the last couple of years has taught me, the British pound is very difficult to trade overall. After all, the latest rumor about Brexit can send the currency racing in one direction or the other, and of course we still have a lot of people paying attention to the possibility of stimulus coming out of the United States.

In other words, I think that we are not necessarily going to see big moves in one direction or the other, and that the choppy behavior will continue to be a bit of a hindrance to putting bigger positions on. Quite frankly, we continue to see a lot of nonsense surrounding Brexit and of course the British pound overall. Because of this, short-term back-and-forth trading with what looks to be a slight upward tilt continues to be the most likely scenario.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Trading Currencies: Not All One Way (But Close)

It’s interesting how strong ‘risk-on’ trading has been over the past 3 to 4 weeks. The US dollar basket since the first Presidential debate has almost been in a downward linear trend that suggests the market is actually backing a change of administration at the White House.

Today (Oct. 15) was originally scheduled for the second US presidential debate in Miami, but it was cancelled after President Donald Trump said he refused to participate. Final round will be held at Belmont University in Nashville on Oct. 22.

DXY since September 28:

However, there are a few issues outside of the US election that are creeping into the trades.

AUD/USD – Challenging relationship with China

AUD/USD had been pretty steady around $0.7210 for a little while. However, news that China might be looking to freeze imports of coal from Australia broke the trend and knocked the pair to $0.7175.

Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said in a conference this week that the linkages between China and Australia in terms of coal import are vitally important to the country, yet the relationship is mutually beneficial as well.

Australia’s economy has performed rather well through the COVID crisis and is likely to remain one of the better performing economies in the coming 12 months.

EUR/USD – Second wave is making a heavy comeback

EUR/USD is also coming under pressure as the second wave in Europe builds to levels not seen since the March peak with Italy’s active cases rising to 5,901 from 4,619, France now has 21,329 active cases while the Netherlands announced a partial lockdown by closing bars, restaurants and cafes from Wednesday as its active case start to impact hospitalisations. All this has seen EUR/USD down to $1.1743, a 65-pip fall, in 24 hours and is showing further weakness.

GBP/USD – Records highest daily rise of COVID cases since March

GBP/USD is suffering from the same issue as the UK’s second wave sees a new tiered lockdown structure. Currently there are 17,234 active cases, however it’s the fact that cases are now growing at a rate not seen since March that has GBP/USD on edge (~5000 cases a day). Hospitalisations stand at 3,905 but that number is sure to increase. GBP/USD fell 1% to $1.2935 and will likely fall further if numbers continue to spiral and/or lockdowns get stronger.

Vaccine news could drive the market

Given the fact that COVID is still impacting the market prices as the recent surge of cases has become increasingly worrying, headlines that evolve around the vaccine progress are likely to move the market prices dramatically. Just earlier this week when Johnson and Johnson paused its coronavirus vaccine trials after a participant experienced an unexplained illness, EUR/USD slipped below 1.18 and US stocks edged lower. Volatility will continue to be high in the coming weeks. Stay alert on news and manage your positions with risk management tools.

This article is prepared by Lucia Han from Mitrade and is for reference only. We do not represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete. The article content neither takes into account your personal investment objects nor your financial situation, and therefore it should not be relied upon as such. You should seek for your own advice.

GBP/USD Rollercoaster Continues

The GBPUSD Rollercoaster continues. Brexit deadline expires today and there is no agreement yet. Roller coaster continues.

Depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and whether talks continue or not, the Brexit rollercoaster continues. This is the market risk. Technically sellers come around 1.3045-56 zone, shile buyers show within 1.2885-98 zone. Targets are pivot point in-between. Breakouts to the upside are possible above 1.3080 towards 1.3120 and 1.3159. Breakouts to the bottom are possible below 1.2860 towards 1.2840 and 1.2805.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.