Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Sustained Move Over $1746.90 Will Target $1759.40 – $1767.60

Gold futures are edging higher on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields continued to pullback, dragging down the U.S. Dollar. Meanwhile, investors positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. weekly jobless claims and March retail sales reports that could offer further clarity as to the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

At 08:53 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1747.00, up $10.70 or +0.62%.

U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower on Thursday morning, ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims and monthly retail sales data.

The initial jobless claims report is expected to show another 710,000 claims were filed for the first time during the week-ended April 10. March retail sales are also set to come out at 12:30 GMT and are expected to have jumped 6.1%, versus a 3% decline in February.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1759.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The trend will change to down on a trade through $1723.20.

On the downside, the first support is a minor 50% level at $1718.40. This is followed by a major Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

The market is currently testing a short-term 50% level at $1746.90.

The next two resistance levels are another short-term 50% level at $1767.60, followed by a major 50% level at $1788.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1746.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into $1759.40 then $1767.60. Overcoming the latter could trigger an acceleration into the major 50% level at $1788.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1746.90 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main bottom at $1723.20, followed by a pair of retracement levels at $1718.40 and $1711.90.

The trigger point for the next acceleration to the downside is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Appeal for Gold Bounces Up Amid Weaker Dollar

The bullion asset recorded impressive gains at the fourth trading session of the week with global investors awaiting further signals on the U.S economy as the greenback traded near its three-week lows, further boosted gold bugs in breaking above $1745 an ounce.

Historically the U.S dollar, normally moves inversely to the yellow metal, giving gold bugs enough gas to take hold of the metal’s market momentarily with appetite for the safe-haven currency diminishing day by day.

Consequently, triggering more upsides for gold prices are recent comments coming from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that major risks include another spike in COVID-19 caseloads and perhaps resistant strains that might prove difficult to cure.

However, U.S economic recovery remains on course thanks to rising consumer optimism, as monetary officials added that the United States is on track for faster growth and better employment readings in the coming months.

Such macros might limit the precious metals, on the bias that investors will shun non-yielding investments thereby putting gold bugs on a herculean mission breaking above $1,800 price level, despite the weakening dollar. partly because investors have pushed in record levels towards the crypto-verse as the flagship crypto and other altcoins stay bullish.

Gold bulls have built a baseline around the $1730 pivot zone, suggesting that the bullion asset might stay within the current range, as the appetite for risk broadens with the greenback’s pullback and plunging Treasury yields.

That being said, the precious metal has lost much of its appeal this year compared to 2020 with price actions deteriorating in favor of gold bears rather than gold bugs, still, deep corrections of gold prices are viewed as buying opportunities.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Trades Lower Within A Narrow Trading Range

This high was hit after gold traded to a second low, or double bottom on the 30th and 31st of March. This follows the first low of the double bottom which occurred on March 8 when gold was traded to a low of $1673. The second low in the double bottom came in slightly above the former low at $1676.

Simply put, this shows that gold is still dominated by the bearish faction, with the bullish faction attempting to regain control now that we have had a higher low and a higher high than previous.

Today, gold futures basis the most active June contract gave up much of yesterday’s gains. Currently, June gold is fixed at $1736.50, a net decline of $11.10. Today’s close occurred just above the 21-day exponential moving average which is currently fixed at $1736 per ounce. Although gold has been trading sideways over the last eight trading days it is currently above the series of tops that occurred in mid-March. Our technical studies indicate that the selloff in gold which began at the beginning of January when gold was trading above $1940 concluded at the beginning of March. When the first lows of the double bottom occurred, that being said, momentum to the upside has been slow and tenuous at best but has the real potential to continue higher.

gold April 14

Resistance begins at gold’s 50-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1753.90, with the next level of resistance occurring at which is the 78% Fibonacci retracement. The data set used for this retracement begins at the new record high at $2088 and concludes at $1673, the first low of the double bottom we spoke about above.

Chairman Jerome Powell spoke virtually today at the economic club of Washington DC. He addressed the concern that many economists have about the ever-growing national debt that has been created from fiscal stimulus as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. In response to these concerns Chairman Powell said that “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning simply that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. The current level of debt is very sustainable. And there’s no question of our ability to service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future.”

Although he said that there is no question that the Federal Reserve and U.S. government could service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future the fact of the matter is that current estimates put our expenditures in 2021 at 1.25% of GDP. That being said, it will be hard to fathom exactly what steps will be necessary to service the current level of debt. Also, any major change in interest rates would make that debt even more difficult to service. Many such analysts, including myself, continue to believe that we have not even begun to deal with the economic fallout that will follow our mounting debt. While all are in agreement that the current U.S. budget is on an unsustainable path, real solutions are needed, and no viable solutions have been presented.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

Volatile Wall Street Tech Trade Expected to Drag Asia-Pacific Shares Lower on Opening

The major Asia-Pacific stock indexes are expected to open lower on Thursday, following Wall Street’s lead. The benchmark S&P 500 Index fell from its record high in a volatile trade on Wednesday amid a sharp drop in technology shares. The tech-weighted NASDAQ Composite posted a dramatic technical reversal top and the blue chip Dow was higher.

Ahead of the Asia-Pacific opening, key global stock indexes scaled new peaks on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. and European earnings pointed to a strong recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, while the dollar dipped to three-week lows as Treasury yields eased off recent highs.

Wednesday’s Recap

Shares in China led gains in the Asia-Pacific region during Wednesday’s trade as Chinese tech stocks listed in the city jumped. Shares of Chinese tech firms listed in Hong Kong saw a rebound on Wednesday after 12 companies, including Baidu, JD.com and Meituan, signaled compliance with antitrust laws.

That development came just a day after Beijing gave so-called platform companies a month to examine their actions and rectify any anti-competitive practices. Shares of most Chinese tech giants in Hong Kong tumbled on Tuesday amid those regulatory fears.

Australia Shares Hit 13-Month High on Gold, Tech Boost

Australian shares climbed to a 13-month peak on Wednesday, led by gains in gold stocks and technology firms.

Australia’s gold subindex posted its biggest jump since January 4 as bullion prices, a traditional hedge against inflation, rebounded from a more than one-week low. Newcrest, the country’s largest gold miner, added 4.2%.

Resolute Mining soared more than 20%, its biggest surge in more than a year, as a lease for its Bibiani gold mine in Ghana was restored after being terminated last month.

Technology stocks also surged 2.1% on the back of the U.S. consumer price data, tracking overnight gains on the NASDAQ.

Buy now, pay later bellwether and index heavyweight Afterpay jumped as much as 3.6% to its highest gains on the NASDAQ.

Japanese Shares End Lower as Virus Resurgence Hits Risk Appetite

Japanese shares ended lower on Wednesday, weighed down by cyclicals, as a resurgence in COVID-19 cases cast doubts over prospects of economic rebound, while falling interest rates dragged on banking and insurer stocks.

“The expectations for the reopening of the economy shrank because rollouts of vaccines in Japan is much slower than other countries, while the number of new COVID-19 cases is on the rise,” said Shoichi Arisawa, general manager of the investment research department at IwaiCosmo Securities.

“The interest rates could fall if the economy slows down. That has sent bank and insurer shares lower on Wednesday.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Slip Despite a Declining Greenback

Gold prices moved lower on Wednesday, despite a declining dollar. The rise in the 10-year yield came despite the budget deficit hitting an all-time high. Treasury yields appear to be topping out, which could lead to a rally in the yellow metal. All the focus seems to on cryptocurrencies, with Coinbase making its IPO.

Trade gold with FXTM

[fx-broker slug=fxtm]

Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower staying sandwiched below resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,754 and support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,736. As prices continue to squeeze between these levels, energy is growing and will likely lead to a breakout or break down. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 74, down from an overbought condition near 77, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

The Budget Deficit Hits an All-time High

The U.S. government’s budget deficit surged to an all-time high of $1.7 trillion for the first six months of this budget year, nearly double the previous record. In its monthly budget report, the Treasury Department said that the deficit for the first half of the budget year,  from October through March, was up from a shortfall of $743.5 billion for the same period a year ago. The deficit has been driven higher by trillions of dollars in support Congress has passed in successive economic rescue packages since the pandemic struck in early March 2020.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pull Back

Gold markets have pulled back a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. With that being the case, it looks as if the $1750 level is going to continue to be an area of interest, and it is worth noting that the 50 day EMA sits just above there, offering psychological and perhaps even technical resistance. That being said, I do not necessarily think that we need to pile in on shorting gold, but it is most certainly sitting there with its back against the wall.

Gold Price Predictions Video 15.04.21

If we did break above the 50 day EMA, and close above there on a daily chart, then I might consider taking a short-term trade to the upside, as it could open up gold towards the 200 day EMA which currently sits just below the $1800 level. Breaking above there then kicks off a longer-term uptrend. With this being the case, the market then should continue to go looking towards the $1950 level, where we had seen a major sell off.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below that double bottom near $1675, the market then probably drops another $175 rather quickly, as the $1500 level is the next major support level that I see on the chart. The market of course is going to be very noisy, but at the end of the day I think what we are looking at is a downtrend that is being very stubborn about giving up, but we also have significant support underneath. In other words, it is going to be very choppy going forward, but that is typical of gold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Shares Of Goldman Sachs Are Up By 5% Today?

Goldman Sachs Video 14.04.21.

Goldman Sachs Stock Moves Higher After Strong Quarterly Report

Shares of Goldman Sachs gained strong upside momentum after the company released its quarterly report. The company reported revenue of $17.7 billion and GAAP earnings of $18.60 per share, easily beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Goldman Sachs declared a quarterly dividend of $1.25 per share, in line with the previous dividend.

The company noted that its investment banking segment generated record quarterly net revenues of $3.77 billion, and the firm retained its first position in worlwide announced and completed mergers and acquisitions. Other business segments also performed well.

The unprecendented support provided by the world central banks boosted capital markets and deal activity which was bullish for Goldman Sachs. Reports from other financial companies that were published today were also strong so it’s an industry-wide trend.

What’s Next For Goldman Sachs?

Shares of Goldman Sachs reached all-time high levels back in March 2021 at $356.85. At this point, it looks that the stock has good chances to get to the test of this level.

Analysts expect that Goldman Sachs will report earnings of $33.06 per share in 2021 and $33.71 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at just 10 forward P/E which is cheap in today’s market environment. It should be noted that earnings estimates have been steadily moving higher in recent months, and analysts will likely increase them after the strong quarterly report.

The recent pullback in Treasury yields has put some pressure on financial stocks, but the solid quarterly performance should help Goldman Sachs gain more upside momentum. In addition, the risk of higher inflation (and higher yields) is real, which is bullish for the financial sector. Meanwhile, shares of Goldman Sachs look ready to test the recent highs as the company’s quarterly performance was strong while its valuation remains attractive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Does Gold Want to Move Lower?

The yellow metal has climbed, but only with lacklustre energy. If the USD Index is not rising, then gold should really be shooting up and breaking new monthly highs, but it isn’t. Readers have been asking what’s happening and some have been concerned with gold’s apparent strength. So, let’s break it down.

History tends to rhyme and what happened before, will – to some degree – happen again. Gold is not immune to this concept, and the current implications are bearish.

Let’s jump right into the charts for details.

Graphical user interface, chartDescription automatically generated

Gold topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal, just like it did in mid-March and in early January (please note the points that are marked on the above chart for confirmation – they are described in red). That happened on Thursday (Apr. 8), and since that time gold has continued to move lower.

Gold invalidated the breakout above its mid-March highs, proving that what we saw was nothing more than just an ABC (zigzag) correction within a bigger downswing. The moves that follow such corrections are likely to be similar to the moves that precede it. In this case, the move that preceded the correction was the 2021 decline of over $150. This means that another $150+ decline could have just begun.

It might appear bullish that gold rallied yesterday (Apr. 13), but it only appears this way until one compares this rally with what happened in the USD Index during the same time. Paying attention to today’s (Apr. 14) pre-market price moves further emphasizes the fake nature of yesterday’s rally in gold.

The point is not that gold rallied, but that it hasn’t rallied enough.

A picture containing chartDescription automatically generated

During yesterday’s session, the USD Index moved to new monthly lows and this decline continued in today’s pre-market trading. Consequently, if gold was at least reacting to the USD’s movement “normally”, it should move to new monthly highs. If gold “wanted” to rally, it would have likely exploded to the upside. But what happened instead? Gold moved higher only somewhat yesterday – not to new monthly highs – and in today’s pre-market trading it’s actually slightly lower.

This tells us that gold “wants” to move lower now.

The USD Index moved lower, and it can move even lower on a very short-term basis, perhaps to the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire 2021 rally, and the previous lows. And what would be the likely effect on gold? Based on what we saw yesterday, and what we see so far today, it seems that gold will likely ignore this decline in the USD Index, while waiting for the latter to finally show strength – so that it (gold) could decline.

After all, gold has already topped right at its triangle-vertex-based reversal point . Consequently, it’s no wonder that it now continues to trade sideways, waiting for a trigger to move much lower.

Moreover, please note that the recent zigzag makes the situation similar (approximately symmetrical) to what we saw about a year ago – between April and early June. Once gold breaks to new yearly lows, one could view this as a breakdown below the neckline of a major head and shoulders pattern where the April 2020 – June 2020 and the recent consolidations are the shoulders of the pattern. Based on such a pattern, gold would be likely to slide profoundly, probably well below $1,500. And the relative performance of gold vs. the USD Index tells us that such a short-term breakdown (to new yearly lows) is a likely outcome in the following weeks.

ChartDescription automatically generated

Gold stocks also failed to rally to new monthly highs, and they seem to be forming a relatively broad topping pattern, just as they did in mid-March and at the beginning of the year.

The sell signal from the Stochastic indicator as well as the fact that miners failed to invalidate the breakdown below their broad head-and-shoulders pattern points to a bearish outlook for the following weeks (and perhaps months).

All in all, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish and the recent rally didn’t change anything.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Is Losing Ground As Treasury Yields Rebound

Silver Video 14.04.21.

Silver Pulls Back After Yesterday’s Upside Move

Silver faced resistance near $25.55 and pulled back while the U.S. dollar remained under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the support at the 50 EMA at 91.80 and is trying to develop additional downside momentum. In case this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next support at 91.50 which will be bullish for silver and gold price today. Weak dollar is bullish for precious metals as it makes them cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Gold pulled back towards the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at $1735. This level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength. In case gold declines below the 20 EMA, it will head towards $1720 which will be bearish for silver.

It should be noted that Treasury yields are rebounding after yesterday’s downside move, which is a bearish catalyst for precious metals.

Meanwhile, gold/silver ratio is testing the support at the 50 EMA at 68.60. If gold/silver ratio settles below the 50 EMA, it will gain downside momentum which will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver april 14 2021

Silver did not manage to settle above the resistance at $25.55 and declined towards the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at $25.30. The next support level is located at $25.20, so silver will likely get material support in the $25.20 – $25.30 area.

If silver settles below the support at $25.20, it will head towards the next support level at $25.00. A successful test of this support level will open the way to the test of the next support at $24.70.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for silver is located at $25.55. If silver gets above this level, it will get to the test of the 50 EMA at $25.65. A move above the 50 EMA will push silver towards the resistance at $25.85. If silver manages to settle above this level, it will move towards the $26.25 – $26.30 resistance area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Use Yields as Your Trading Guide, Not Inflation Expectations

Gold futures are inching lower on Wednesday shortly after the regular session opening after an attempt to continue yesterday’s strong rebound rally fizzled due to the lack of fresh buyers. On Tuesday, gold prices rose after short-sellers were caught on the wrong side of the market following the release of the U.S. consumer inflation report.

Although the report indicated that inflation grew more than expected, the reaction by Treasury bond traders surprised the market, suggesting the report had already been baked into the market.

In my opinion, gold rose, not because of higher inflation, after all, investors also had high expectations for inflation, but because Treasury yields fell, dragging down the U.S. Dollar. And we all know that gold is a dollar-denominated asset and tends to rally when the gold market weakens.

Today, yields are moving higher and the U.S. Dollar is flat. These two factors are weighing on gold prices.

At 12:56 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1745.40, down $2.20 or -0.13%.

Treasury Yields Recovering

U.S. Treasury yields are up on Wednesday, following a slightly higher-than-expected inflation reading the previous session. The move suggests that Tuesday’s drop in yields may have been a false reaction, or a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move. If so then, gold traders may have been caught in a “bull trap”.

In recapping Tuesday’s main event, the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index, a core measure of inflation, rose 0.6% in March on the previous month. However, consumer prices jumped 2.6% on the same period last year, the highest year-on-year gain since August 2018 and much higher than the 1.7% growth reported in February.

Daily Forecast

Later today, volume and volatility could pick up as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to discuss the economic recovery from the pandemic at 16:00 GMT at The Economic Club of Washington.

Fed Chair Richard Clarida is also slated to talk about the central bank’s new framework and outcome-based forward guidance at 19:45 GMT at the Shadow Open Market Committee meeting.

Gold may have risen following the release of the CPI data, but it was not because of concerns over inflation. Expectations of higher inflation have been driving yields higher for months and gold prices have been falling.

So trade the yields, don’t trade the reports.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Set To Open Higher As Big Banks Report Strong Earnings Results

Treasury Yields Stay Close To Recent Lows

S&P 500 futures are gaining some ground in premarket trading as Treasury yields remain close to recent lows. Yesterday, U.S. inflation reports indicated that inflation was rising a bit faster than analysts expected.

However, this increase is not sufficient enough to trigger any response from the Fed so Treasury yields declined after the release of inflation reports. Today, Treasury yields remain close to yesterday’s levels which is bullish for tech stocks which look ready to continue their upside move.

Big Banks Report Earnings

JPMorgan has recently released its quarterly results. The company reported revenue of $32.3 billion and earnings of $4.50 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo reports also exceeded analyst estimates.

Financial stocks had a strong start of the year as yields moved higher, and it looks that investors have made a right move by betting on the financial segment as results look strong.

Interestingly, shares of Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are gaining some ground in premarket trading while JPMoran stock is down by about 0.5%, but the situation may change quickly when the regular trading session begins.

Oil Moves Higher As Iran Tensions Increase

WTI oil is currently trying to settle above the $61 level as the fate of renewed nuclear talks with Iran is under question. Recently, participants of the 2015 nuclear deal made an attempt to put Iran and U.S. back to the negotiation table, but the recent attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility increased tensions.

In response to the attack, Iran stated that it would enrich uranium up to 60% purity. It is not clear whether Iran has the technical capability to do so in the near term, but the move clearly raises stakes in the complicated game between U.S., Iran and other participants of the 2015 nuclear deal.

It should be noted that the recent API Crude Oil Stock Change report indicated that crude inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels and provided additional support to the oil market. If today’s EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports confirms API numbers, oil may gain additional upside momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Australian Dollar On The Rise

Gold traders are fighting to keep the bullish dream alive and they’re trying to create the right shoulder of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout of the neckline can possibly bring serious bullish sentiment.

Silver bounced from a crucial support on the 24.8 USD/oz.

Brent oil broke the mid-term down trendline and is aiming higher.

The Dow Jones is in the third wedge pattern in a row. The previous two ended in an upswing.

The EURUSD climbed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci.

The GBPUSD wasted a great chance for an upswing and failed to break the neckline of the inversed head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD on the other hand, is very close to activating the buy signal from its own inversed head and shoulders formation.

The USDCAD is locked in a tight rectangle below major down trendlines.

The GBPAUD is in a sweet long-term sell signal, after the price created a head and shoulders pattern at the end of the wedge. A breakout of the lower line of the wedge opens a way towards new mid-term lows.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, Apr. 14 – Gold’s Consolidation Despite Rallying Stocks, Cryptos

The gold futures contract gained 0.86% on Tuesday, as it fluctuated within a short-term consolidation despite rallying stock market, cryptocurrencies. The market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,763.30. In early March yellow metal’s price was the lowest since last year’s June. Today gold is trading along yesterday’s daily close, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Gold is 0.2% lower this morning, as it is trading within a relatively small daily range. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.04% higher, platinum is 1.9% higher and palladium is 0.2% lower today. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s CPI release has been slightly higher than expected at +0.6%. Today the markets will be waiting for the Fed Chair Powell speech at 12:00 p.m.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Wednesday, April 14

  • 10:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 12:00 p.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Beige Book
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 3:45 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Clarida Speech
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Thursday, April 15

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m , Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 11:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bostic Speech
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Daly Speech
  • 10:00 p.m. China – GDP q/y

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Bullish Tone Over $1746.90 with $1759.40, $1767.60 Next Targets

Gold futures are trading flat early Wednesday after bouncing off minor support the previous session following a report that showed a sharp rise in U.S. inflation data. The news didn’t surprise investors who had been anticipating a large number.

This encouraged investors to buy government bonds, driving down Treasury yields and consequently demand for the U.S. Dollar. As the greenback weakened, foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold rose.

At 08:32 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1746.80, down $0.80 or -0.05%.

U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in more than 8-1/2 years in March, kicking off what most economists expect will be a brief period of higher inflation.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1759.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A new secondary higher bottom was formed at $1723.20. A move through this level will change the main trend to down.

The first short-term range is $1677.30 to $1759.40. Its 50% level at $1718.40 is support.

The second support is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Another short-term range is $1817.60 to $1676.20. Gold is currently straddling its 50% level at $1746.90.

The main range is $1858.90 to $1676.20. Its 50% level at $1767.60 is another potential upside target.

The major resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1746.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main top at $1759.40, followed by $1767.60. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1788.50 the next likely target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1746.90 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the main bottom at $1723.20, followed by the short-term 50% level at $1718.40 and the major Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

The Fib level at $1711.90 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $1677.30 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Prices Surge As U.S Inflation Heats Up – What’s Next?

Gold prices surged on Tuesday from their lowest level in more than a week after a sharp rise in U.S inflation boosting the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in what customers pay for goods and services such as groceries, clothing and gas, climbed 0.6% in March – it’s biggest monthly increase since August 2012. This report follows last week’s PPI data, which showed producer prices rose 4.2% annually, the fastest pace since September 2011.

The U.S government and Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing programs have started to draw criticism and raise concerns about the long-term risks of overspending and overstimulating the economy at such an aggressive pace.

Inflation will remain the hot topic this week with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday.

So far, Jerome Powell has artfully dodged questions relating to the rapid rise in inflation, stating that any price acceleration will be temporary. But policy makers will have to address this problematic issue eventually before it snowballs into something they can no longer control.

Another macro event that has lend support to gold prices this week was news that U.S health officials’ have halted the use of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine, due to blood clotting occurrences in a few recipients.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

European Equities: Economic Data, ECB President Lagarde, and Corporate Earnings in Focus

Economic Calendar:

Wednesday, 14th April

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)

Thursday, 15th April

German CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Mar) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)

The Majors

It was a relatively bullish day for the European majors on Tuesday.

The CAC40 rose by 0.36%, with the DAX30 and the EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.13% and 0.12% respectively.

Impressive trade data from China delivered support to riskier assets, while a pickup in U.S inflationary pressures failed to weigh on the majors.

Assurances from the FED of low for longer left the markets desensitized on the day.

Economic data from the Eurozone pegged the majors back, however, as economic sentiment across Germany and the Eurozone waned in April.

The Stats

It was another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar on Tuesday.

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone were in focus early in the European session.

In April, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 76.6 to 70.7. Economists had forecast a rise to 79.0. The Current Conditions indicator rose from -61.0 to -48.8. Economist had forecast an increase to -53.0.

For the Eurozone, the Economic Sentiment Indicator fell from 74.0 to 66.3.

From the U.S

It was a relatively busy day, with inflation figures in focus.

In March, the annual rate of core inflation ticked up from 1.3% to 1.6%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 1.5%.

Month-on-month, core consumer prices increased by 0.3%, following a 0.1% rise in February. Economists had forecast a 0.2% increase.

Consumer prices increased by 0.6%, following a 0.4% rise in February. Economists had forecast a 0.5% increase.

From Elsewhere

Earlier in the day, trade data from China had set the tone ahead of the European open.

In March, China’s USD trade surplus widened from $103.25bn to $116.35bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $52.05bn.

Exports increased by 49.0%, following a 60.6% surge in February, with imports rising by 38.1%. In February, imports had risen by 22.2%.

Economists had forecast exports to increase by 35.5% and imports to rise by 23.3%.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental rose by 1.53% to buck the trend on the day. Volkswagen slid by 1.00%, with BMW and Daimler falling by 0.46% and by 0.55% respectively.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank declined by 1.06%, with Commerzbank ending the day down by 1.59%.

From the CAC, it was another mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas rose by 0.43%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen ended the day with modest losses of 0.08% and 0.05% respectively.

It was also a mixed day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rose by 1.39%, while Renault fell by 1.83%.

Air France-KLM took the biggest hit, however, sliding by 5.04%, with Airbus SE ending the day down by 1.50%. Talk of the French government planning to ban domestic flights delivered the downside for Air France-KLM.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red the VIX on Tuesday, marking a 4th daily loss in 5-sessions.

Reversing a 1.32% rise from Tuesday, the VIX fell by 1.54% to end the day at 16.65.

The NASDAQ and the S&P500 rose by 1.05% and by 0.33% respectively, while the Dow fell by 0.20%.

VIX 140421 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. Eurozone industrial production figures for February are due out later today.

Finalized March inflation figures from Spain are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the European majors.

From the U.S, import and export price figures are due out that should also have a muted impact on the European boerses.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak later in the day. Expect any chatter on the economy or monetary policy to influence.

From the FED, FED Chair Powell is also scheduled to speak but after the European close.

On the day, corporate earnings will also be in focus. The U.S banking sector will be in the spotlight, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo announcing results later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 32 points, while the DAX was up by 11 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Higher CPI Should Boost More Than Just Gold Prices

BTC futures hit a high of $62,000 before backing off slightly. As of 4 PM, EST BTC is trading at approximately $60,500. This marks the first close above $60,000 for Bitcoin futures, and I believe we will see $65,000 by week’s end.

Mponday main image

The consumer price index is set to be released tomorrow at 8:30 EST, and the expectations are mixed, but it would make complete sense if it continued to climb. January 2021, the U.S. CPI was at 262.231. February was the last month to be released, and it hit an all-time high in the index of 263.161. With the March numbers set to be released tomorrow, we could see a BTC price spike if it continues its current trend higher.

Monday main image #1

Usually, a higher CPI rate was good for gold, and it still is; however, I believe we will see more capital move into Bitcoin than into gold on inflationary fears. So, a spike in the Consumer Price Index tomorrow could quickly catapult Bitcoin futures towards $65,000.

As ETH follows moves in Bitcoin, expect a rise in Ether also, so traders who took our call last week to buy should remain long with stops at $1,900.

btc vs eth MONDAY CHART

Part 2: Higher CPI Should Boost More Than Just Gold Prices

BTC is trading at approximately $60,500. This marks the first close above $60,000 for Bitcoin futures, and I believe we will see $65,000 by week’s end.

-excerpt from previous article on 4/12/2021.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 20 of the 21 indexes rose compared to the previous month, most notable energy of which gasoline saw a 9% rise. Combined there was a 0.6% increase in the month of March. This beat out the increases seen over the last six months and brought the CPI up to a 2.6% increase over March 2020.

Tuesday main

This number came in above estimates and we did see a rise in the price of gold and silver but also Bitcoin and Ethereum. It looks like we will indeed see $65,000 in BTC as today’s record high came in about $500 short of that at $64,450. Where will Bitcoin go to from here?

Tues chart #2

My prediction of a new record this month in April is that we will reach at minimum $69,600 this is based on Elliot Wave models and Fibonacci extensions. Although it has the potential to go even higher. In tandem to this we will see Ethereum trade to the prices I mentioned yesterday, today we saw an equal rise of about 5% on the day. The month of April will be big for Bitcoin.

tuesday chrt 1

The Consumer Price Index Indicates Growing Inflation

Inflation via the CPI came in above expectations by economists. The numbers showed that the CPI gained +0.6%, which was 10 points above consensus and the highest single month tally since June 2009. When compared to year over year which is considered a more modest inflation metric the CPI is +2.61%.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 9.1 percent in March and accounting for nearly half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all-items index. The natural gas index also rose, contributing to a 5.0-percent increase in the energy index over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March, with the food at home index and the food away from home index both also rising 0.1 percent.”

According to Reuters, “The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 9.1 percent in March and accounting for nearly half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all-items index. The natural gas index also rose, contributing to a 5.0-percent increase in the energy index over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March, with the food at home index and the food away from home index both also rising 0.1 percent.”

The CPI, along with dollar weakness were both major factors in taking gold and silver futures higher. As of 5:36 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active June 2021 Comex contract is fixed at $1746.20, after factoring in today’s $13.50 (+0.78%) gain. Silver futures basis, the most active May contract gained almost $0.54 (+2.16%) and is currently fixed at $25.405. The dollar lost 0.314 points in trading today and is currently fixed at 91.83. Also, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was down by 3.9 basis points and currently has a yield of approximately 1.62%, declining after the release of today’s CPI data.

gold April 13

Spot or forex gold, according to the Kitco Gold Index, gained $13.10 in trading today. On closer inspection, dollar weakness accounted for $4.85, with the remaining $8.25 gain directly attributable to traders bidding the precious metal higher. Spot or forex silver is currently fixed at $25.33. Only $0.07 can be attributed to dollar weakness with the remaining $0.47 a direct result of trading activity.

silver April 13

The question with the most recent CPI numbers is whether or not the inflation pressure is temporary or a sign that inflation will continue to rise. Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at ThinkMarkets, said, “Inflation will probably pick up further and the numbers for the next few months may appear abnormally large as base effects from the 2020 lockdowns skew the data,”

The Federal Reserve’s revised mandate has indicated that they will let inflation run hot above its former 2% benchmark in lieu of focusing on their mandate of maximum employment. This will undoubtedly continue to have a bullish affect gold and silver.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rebounds as Yields Fall and Dollar Drops

 

Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday, rebounding as the dollar moved lower and yields dropped. The decline in the 10-year yield came despite a larger than the expected headline and core CPI report announced on Tuesday by the Department of Labor. Treasury yields appear to be topping out which could lead to a rally in the yellow metal.

Trade gold with FXTM

[fx-broker slug=fxtm]

Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher but failed to capture resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,756. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,730. Additional support is seen near the June lows at 1,670. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 77, down from an overbought condition near 81, which reflects accelerating negative momentum. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Consumer Prices Surge

Consumer prices surged in March, buoyed by a strong economic recovery and year-over-year comparisons when the Covid-19 pandemic was about to throttle the U.S. economy. The consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month but 2.6% from the same period a year ago. The year-over-year gain is the highest since August 2018 and was well above the 1.7% recorded in February. Expectations were for a rise of 0.5% monthly and 2.5% from March 2020. Gasoline prices were the biggest contributor to the monthly gain, surging 9.1% in March and responsible for about half the overall CPI increase.