FBS CopyTrade Launches A New Card Scanning Feature!

The FBS CopyTrade team has created a new feature for a more convenient app use! To make financial transactions like deposits or withdrawals, users can now scan their cards with their phone cameras.

No need to squint at all those symbols and put them in manually one-by-one. Now to complete a financial transaction, users can tap the card icon in the Card number field when filling in card information and let technology do all the dirty work. The app will fill in the card number, cardholder name, and the expiration date – the CVV2 code needs to be put in manually. The feature is available in the FBS CopyTrade app for both iPhone and Android users.

FBS CopyTrade app is the first of FBS products to introduce this feature. We will not stop here: our team is working relentlessly to make sure the investors have a great time using the FBS CopyTrade app. Our app has received awards as the most user-friendly social trading app – and we work hard to prove that we deserve these awards.

The FBS CopyTrade App is a dynamically developing platform for social trading. It is usually named the most user-friendly and easy-to-use copy trading application.

The app was launched in 2018. It is used by more than 5 million investors. FBS CopyTrade allows people who are less experienced in trading to increase their capitals by copying the selected skilled traders. The traders get an income from each copier’s deposit after a successful transaction. The support team of the app operates 24/7 with more than 15 languages.

FBS is an international broker with over 190 countries of presence and 11 years of expertise, providing knowledge via free seminars, special events, educational materials, and daily analytics.

FBS is an official trading partner of FC Barcelona from January 2020.

Bitcoin Sidetracks from $40,000. What Happens Now?

Bitcoin’s wild rally in 2020 was fueled by the Feds printing over $3 million to battle the COVID-19 crisis. The US dollar weakened with inflation, while BTC price soared. People discovered trading at home with brokers offering attractive no-commission services. All you need is a phone and an Internet connection to trade.

This year, the price trend continues with more money printing anticipated. US President-elect Joe Biden revealed last week his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief proposal, which could push Bitcoin prices further.

BTCUSD stalls at $34,437 after peaking at about $42,000 [1D], SimpleFX WebTrader

Surprisingly though, Biden’s announcement made a very weak bullish response from the Bitcoin market so far. As of writing, BTCUSD continues to trade sideways at $34,437, which is down by 20% from the new high but still up by 17% this year to date.

As people used their checks to invest in cryptocurrencies, big-time investors and Hollywood stars investing in Bitcoins strengthened the hype even more. Even billionaire Paul Tudor considers Bitcoin as the top hedge against inflation.

JP Morgan analysts have equated Bitcoin as the “digital gold” and said that it could hit $146,000 eventually. However, in the near term, if Bitcoin can’t reclaim the $40,000 level, an “investor exodus” could happen. Those who want to take profits are likely to cash out and fuel the recent correction, weakening Bitcoin’s momentum cues until the end of March.

BTCUSD performance since January 2020 [1D], SimpleFX WebTrader

The macroview and the on-chain analysis for Bitcoin give a “wildly bullish” impression to analysts like Jeff Ross from Vailshire. BTCUSD is also far above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, showing a favorable tone. According to Bitcoin bull PlanB, the strong performance and new trading volumes could spark a run to the $48K level.

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BTC/USD Breaks below Support and 35,000, ETH/USD Breaks down to 1,260 but Makes It Back above 1,325

BTC/USD

With the falling continuing, the price broke down below the local support level at 33,937between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC.

At 11:00 UTC, the pair slowed down the face of its downward price action and started finding support at around 33,450. From 12:00 to 18:00 UTC, the pair was mainly contained between 33,450 and a local technical level at 33,937, with a brief dip below 33,500 taking place between 16:00 and 17:00 UTC. But some measure of resistance was found at 33,450 between 11:00 and 17:00 UTC did not let the price break it down. At 17:00 UTC, BTC/USD attempted an upturn above the resistance level and was able to do it in the hour between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.

The exit outside the symmetrical triangle increases the chances of further downside dynamics for BTC/USD in the near future. It means that the 2.618 Fibonacci retracement level will be the next target level for the pair. There is a local support level at 33,817, but it should not pose a serious obstacle for BTC/USD on its way to 31,000.

ETH/USD

ETH/USD opened 20th January at 1,367.9 as per the exchange rate on CEX.IO. The overall dynamics were quite reminiscent of those of BTC/USD. The trading pair took a bounce to 1,405 in the first hour of the day and dropped to 1,343 between 03:00 and 04:00 UTC. Some certain sideways trading was taking place between 04:00 and 09:00 UTC.

Between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC, ETH/USD once again dropped handsomely to 1,300. The third big drop of the day took place between 11:00 and 12:00 UTC when the pair fell below 1,260 and quickly bounced off 1,240. But further falling was retraced with countertrade volumes, and the ETH/USD cross rate continued trading mainly between 1,260 and 1,310 for the most part of the time between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC.

A break back above the 4.326 Fibonacci retracement level occurred between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC, with the price suddenly rising 1,350. ETH/USD continued trading above 1,325 until 21:00 UTC.

The ETH/USD took a substantial downswing to 1,260 but the late retracement above 1,350 fairly nullified those downside efforts, showing a continuing bullish sentiment in ETH/USD. ETH/USD remains under temporary selling pressure, but the uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe remains unbroken with new lows going consistently above the previous ones. Therefore, the closest target for ETH/USD is an upside one at 1,430.

Konstantin Anissimov, Executive Director at CEX.IO

There’s a New Sheriff in Town

Market participants and investors are under the assumption that this new administration will aggressively continue to propose fiscal stimulus aid.

Before his inauguration, President-elect Joe Biden revealed his stimulus proposal which will add another $1.9 trillion to the national debt. The proposed relief package will concentrate on the immediate needs of the nation. In an evening speech in Wilmington Delaware, President Biden said, “Unity is not some pie-in-the-sky dream. It’s a practical step to get any of the things we have to get done as a country, get done together,”.

More importantly, this is only the first step to a much larger recovery package that will follow. The new administration will begin its term with more than one crisis stemming from the global pandemic. Healthcare and distribution of the vaccines will be first and foremost as the president will allocate a large portion of the $2 trillion expenditure to focus upon testing, production, and delivery of vaccines. The remainder of the funds from the “American rescue plan” will provide direct aid to Americans, communities, and businesses which have been directly impacted by the pandemic.

Today’s solid move in both gold and silver, as well as U.S. equities, is based upon the expectations that President Biden will announce additional fiscal stimulus actions which will be announced and detailed as one of his first acts as president of the United States.

Concurrently the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell has pledged to maintain an extremely accommodative monetary policy with interest rates near zero at least through the end of 2022 and simultaneously continue to purchase $120 billion monthly adding to their assets. These purchases will be primarily mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds, and U.S. treasuries.

There are also high expectations that the new head of the United States Treasury Department Janet Yellen will continue to allocate additional trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus. Janet Yellen is on record saying that the United States should “act big” on the economy. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the U.S. government has allocated almost $6 trillion for fiscal aid.

It is the massive expenditures by central banks globally in unison with the United States Federal Reserve and Treasury Department that will provide the underlying support which will weaken the dollar, and take gold and silver prices higher. The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting this week with the goal of keeping the accommodative monetary policy in place.

Gold

As of 5 PM EST, February 2021 Comex gold futures are up by $31.10 (1.70%) and fixed at $1871.50. March Silver futures gained approximately $0.60 (+2.33%) and is fixed at $25.91.

Silver

As far as the expenditures that have totaled approximately $4 trillion for aid goes according to President Biden, he believes that this allocation of capital is unfinished business and said that “I know what I just described will not come cheaply. But failure to do so will cost us dearly.”

Clearly there is a new sheriff in town, one who promises to provide the American public and businesses with the needed capital to stay afloat. As such we expect that our national debt to reach new record levels.

For more information on our service simply use this link.

Wishing you as always, good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

STICPAY Introduces Cashback Program at Forex Brokers

STICPAY, a London-based fintech company and e-wallet provider, introduces a new cashback program in collaboration with the firm’s merchant partners.

With a growing number of broker partners participating in the program, the cashback gets credited directly into the customers’ STICPAY accounts in weekly or monthly settlements.

The rewards STICPAY customers can earn at each broker varies by their account type and trading activity as well as the service provider’s terms.

For these reasons, the firm created a simple calculator app so clients can see how much cashback they can earn at each service. Customers can also use the following table to check their broker’s rates as well as the requirements to participate.

How to Earn Cashback

For traders, it’s easy to participate in STICPAY’s cashback program.

As the first step, users have to log into their STICPAY accounts and head to the cashback program’s official website.

Once ready, customers can choose their broker and use a link provided by STICPAY for the signup.

Upon successful signup, the cashback customers earned at brokers will automatically get credited into their STICPAY accounts in either weekly or monthly settlements (based on each service provider’s terms).

STICPAY credits the cashback at 6:00 GMT every Monday for weekly and 6:00 GMT every first Monday of the month for monthly settlements.

Customers can withdraw the cashback they earned throughout the program anytime using one of the payment methods offered by STICPAY. Alternatively, they can hold, convert, or spend their balance at the company’s verified merchant partners.

About STICPAY

Founded in 2018, STICPAY is a London-based fintech company that serves customers in over 190 countries with a global e-wallet service. With a Year-Over-Year (YoY) growth of 300%, STICPAY has a strong presence in Asia. Due to the firm’s partnerships with domestic financial institutions, STICPAY offers the option for customers in seven Asian countries to top-up and withdraw funds rapidly and cost-efficiently using the local bank wire service.

While featuring advanced security and anti-fraud measures, the company recently redesigned its mobile apps for iOS and Android, allowing customers to enjoy the full STICPAY experience at the convenience of their smartphones. Along with eCommerce, the company considers the forex industry as one of its top markets for merchants.

‘Acting Big’ On Stimulus

“Today’s appearance of Janet Yellen as the nominee for the top finance job in President-elect Biden’s administration is grabbing all the headlines today.”

She will make the case for large-scale stimulus to cushion the blow from the global pandemic. Her strong support for Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package is predicated on the fact that interest rates are at historic lows and the best thing to do is ‘act big’ with the borrowing benefits far outweighing the costs.

After the US holiday yesterday, markets have taken a liking to Yellen’s with risk sentiment on the rise once more. Bond yields are on the up and US stocks have found support at the 20-day SMA and are trying to regain lost ground from last week. Oil too is marching higher with similar price action while gold is flat on the day.

Dollar selling resumes

King Dollar of course, does not like risky markets and the bears are back trying to push the world’s reserve currency below 90.

Along with stating that bigger fiscal support will help reduce the dangers of a more painful recession and long-term economic scarring, Yellen is set to say that the US will not seek competitive devaluation and will allow markets to determine the value of the USD. Does this mean she supports the traditional ‘strong Dollar’ policy? The former Fed Chair knows the ropes when it comes to the importance of her remarks and their effects on markets.

This most likely means she will avoid being pinned down and use a more consistent voice as her strategy, in contrast to the previous administration. She is certainly a wise old owl!

A possible bullish signal and short-term base (inverse head and shoulders) looked to have been developing on the DXY but today’s selling may negate that if prices get near 90.

The target for the reversal pattern is above 92 over the next couple of weeks if bulls manage to push higher.

EUR halts the downtrend

The single currency is the strongest major on the week with support around the 9 December low managing to dampen bearish sentiment. A German business survey showed an improvement in investor expectations while there is some focus on the Italian confidence vote in the Senate. Market reaction is likely to be muted as the PM is expected to win by a small margin.

EUR/USD is aiming for a close above 1.2150 to bolster the rebound and reverse the downtrend from the last ten days. Any fall below 1.2053 would see traders gunning for 1.20.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Dollar’s Weakness is Back

Gold creates a double bottom formation with two hammers on a daily chart.

Nasdaq and DAX bounce from the upper line of a correction pattern.

Dollar index cancels the Inverse Head and Shoulders and drops lower.

EURUSD starts bullish correction.

AUDJPY is heading higher after testing the neckline of a giant iH&S pattern.

USDCHF bounces from the neckline and drops lower with a proper sell signal.

CADCHF goes lower after the false bullish breakout from the symmetric triangle.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Pepperstone Expands Its global Operations With Five New Licenses Around The World.

Find out more about Pepperstone’s range of instruments and markets available to traders at https://pepperstone.com/en-af or https://pepperstone.com/en-ae/

Pepperstone was first established in 2010 in Australia, where it received multiple awards from the notable Investment Trends for customer service, spreads and support. In 2019, Pepperstone was rated number one for overall client satisfaction and platform features.

As one of the largest MetaTrader brokers in the world, Pepperstone’s vision is a world of digitally-enabled trading for traders to embrace the challenge and opportunity of global markets. The financial technology company has more than doubled in size over the past 12 months in line with its growth targets, expanding and tailoring its product offering into hundreds of new markets including Germany, Cyprus, The Bahamas, Dubai and Kenya

“Nairobi and Dubai are exciting financial hubs and we look forward to continuing to strengthen our product offering, delivering exceptional pricing and building on our already strong relationships with our Middle East and African traders and partners” – said Tamas Szabo, Group CEO of Pepperstone

The broker’s commitment to compliance and regulation sees it licensed in ASIC, FCA, DFSA, SCB, CySec, BaFin and CMA, a total of seven licenses in multiple jurisdictions.

About Pepperstone

Established in 2010, Pepperstone is now one of the largest MT4 brokers in the world. The company has subsidiaries across the globe and holds licenses issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), the Capital Markets Authority of Kenya (CMA), and the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (SCB).

GBP/JPY Prepares for Break, Pullback and Bullish Continuation

The GBP/JPY made a deep decline recently. But the rebound up is equally impressive.

The volatile price action makes it difficult to read the charts properly. But we could see this improve if a clear bearish ABC pattern soon appears.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY 19.01.2021 1 hour chart

The GBP/JPY 1 hour chart seems to have completed a bearish ABC (pink) at the recent low. The current bullish price action is also unfolding in 5 waves. What does this mean?

It indicates that more upside is expected (green arrows) after price action completes an ABC (pink) down (orange arrows). The bearish retracement is expected after a bullish 5 wave pattern.

Once the ABC is finished, the bulls could retake control and push price action higher again within the larger uptrend (see moving averages).

Only a break below the previous bottom could indicate a pause of the uptrend (yellow and red circles).

On the 15 minute chart, we can see the fluent bearish price action down (red candles) and up (blue candles).

The 5 wave down, however, seems to complete a larger wave C (pink) whereas the 5 wave up is probably part of a wave A (purple).

The ABC pattern remains valid as long as price action respects the support zones (blue boxes). The uptrend targets are located at:

  • The previous top at 142.13
  • The long-term top and Wizz 7 at 142.67
  • A break of the top could indicate a move to 144

GBP/JPY 19.01.2021 15 minute chart

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

 

Gold Weekly Analysis: Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data

The price of gold has declined further amid incoming U.S. President Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus and poor economic data, which is a bearish sign.

The weakness in the gold market continued last week. As the chart below shows, the London P.M. Fix declined below $1,840 last Friday (the price of the yellow metal later declined even further, i.e., below $1,830).

The downward trend is a bit disturbing given the poor economic data reported last week. First, the jobless claims increased from 784,000 on January 2 to 965,000 on January 9, 2021 , as one can see in the chart below. This increase surpassed market expectations and indicates that there is a long way ahead for a full recovery in the U.S. labor market.

Second, U.S. retail sales declined 0.7 percent in December from the previous month . Importantly, the decrease was larger than the expected 0.1 percent drop. Third, the Empire State Index increased 3.5 percent in January. Although the index grew, it rose at a slower pace than in December and below expectations.

All these economic reports show that the U.S. economy has slowed down, and that we could see more stimulus coming in an effort to stimulate economic growth. Indeed, on Thursday, Jerome Powell excluded any tapering of the quantitative easing in the near future , saying that he “expect[s] that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time”. The recent weak economic data that show slack remaining in the labor market can only reassure the Fed that it should continue providing accommodation and not think about raising interest rates .

Moreover, on Thursday (Jan. 14), Biden unveiled a massive stimulus plan worth $1.9 trillion to support the economy amid the COVID-19 epidemic . The aid package, that would be on top of the $900 billion stimulus adopted by Congress in December, includes $1 trillion in direct checks to Americans, about $440 billion for small businesses particularly strongly hit by the epidemic, and about $415 billion to fight the coronavirus and speed up the distribution of vaccinations.

The continuation of the dovish monetary policy and expansion of the easy fiscal policy should theoretically send the price of gold higher.

Implications for Gold

They should, but gold has gone south instead. Therefore, the drop in the price of gold amid poor economic data, Powell’s remarks, and Biden’s announcement is a bearish signal .

However, it might be also the case that we will see a replay of March, when the first wave of the pandemic initially hit the precious metals market. Investors were stocking up cash then, selling both equities and gold. We observed a similar pattern on Friday, so we could see a reversal after some time.

Moreover, Biden’s fiscal aid, if adopted, would increase U.S. government spending, budget deficit and public debt even further. As a reminder, the federal government spent a record $6.5 trillion in fiscal 2020, while the national debt has already risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s presidency. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s projection from early January, the U.S. fiscal deficit would total $2.3 trillion for fiscal 2021. However, with Biden’s new stimulus, it would be much larger and could even surpass the record deficit of $3.1 trillion for the last fiscal year.

So, the ballooning fiscal deficits and debts, together with a recession caused by the pandemic and the Great Lockdown , should be sufficient reasons to be cautious and hold part of one’s investment portfolio in safe-haven assets such as gold . Yet many investors are still turning a blind eye to the negative effects of a fiscal stimulus. But just because they cover their eyes, the elephant will not disappear from the room. Indeed, the gold elephant – and gold bull , his cousin – will not disappear, although they may hide for a while .

If you enjoyed today’s free gold report , we invite you to check out our premium services. We provide much more detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. In order to enjoy our gold analyses in their full scope, we invite you to subscribe today . If you’re not ready to subscribe yet though and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Arkadiusz Sieron, PhD
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

 

Earnings Preview: Bank Of America & Goldman Sachs In Focus

Since the start of 2021, shares from boths banks have performed well with BofA up almost 9% while GS gaining over 14%. However, this does not necessarily mean that Q4 earnings may smash expectations.

As highlighted in our JPMorgan preview last week, banking stocks continue to derive strength from progress on the vaccine front and renewed hopes over global economic growth.

Bank of America – major challenges

Investors will be closely watching how well Bank of America handles two major challenges when it publishes its Q4 2020 earnings. It is widely known that the negative impacts of COVID-19 and low-interest rates environment punished many major banks including BofA.

“The multinational investment bank has seen revenues fall for fourth consecutive quarters with markets expecting a similar story in Q4.”

According to Bloomberg, the consensus earnings per share estimates stand around 55c per share on $20.51 billion in revenues. For a full year, earnings are projected to decline by 36.6% to $1.79, while full-year revenues are forecast to hit $86.28 billion – marking a 5.7% decline from 2019.

What to watch out for….

It’s all about the loan loss provisions and trading revenues.

The loan loss provisions may be defined as the portion of loan repayments set aside by banks to cover the portions of the loss on defaulted loan repayments.

“Investors are likely to keep an eye out for whether BofA was forced to top its loan loss provision in Q4 in the face of COVID-19. If this is indeed the case, sentiment towards the bank is likely to take a hit.”

In regards to trading revenues, the explosive levels of volatility in 2020 dished out extraordinary opportunities for banks to boost revenue. The jump in trading profits slightly soothed the negative impacts of low-interest rates. Given how volatility remains the name of the game and equity markets are flirting near record highs, BofA may report impressive trading revenue. According to Bloomberg Consensus, trading revenue is expected to hit $3.14 billion in Q4.

BofA bulls still in the building

Share prices remain bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. The solid weekly close above $31.50 may invite an incline towards $35.50 and possibly higher. Lagging indicators in the form of the MACD and 20 Simple Moving Average points to higher prices. Should shares sink below $29.50, this technical bullish setup becomes invalidated.

Will Goldman Sachs surprise markets?

Investors will also be closely scrutinizing Goldman’s earnings report for insight and clarity into the banks’ outlook for 2021. Adjusted earning per share estimates stand around $7.31 with net revenues seen hitting $9.94 billion. Interestingly, full-year earnings per share are forecast to dip 13% to $20.56 while revenues for the whole of 2020 are projected to rise 17% to hit $42.746 billion.

Buying sentiment towards Goldman Sach shares may receive a boost should earnings meet or exceed expectations.

“Given how the bank’s stock is flirting near record highs, positive earnings could provide bulls the green light to elevate prices to fresh records beyond $309.40.”

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

How Might Netflix’s Q4 Earnings Affect its Share Price?

While we await the confirmation of such numbers from Netflix, which is set to announce its Q4 results after US markets close on Tuesday, a lot of tailwinds for this pandemic darling has already been baked into its share prices.

NFLX Daily

How have Netflix’s share prices performed so far in 2021?

In fact, its stock prices have dropped by nearly 8 percent so far this year, and is still keeping to the same range since July. With its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) now flat, Netflix’s shares are clearly in need of a new major catalyst to break out of its sideways trend.

Though to be fair to the bulls, Netflix’s shares had a remarkable year in 2020, registering an annual advance of 67.1 percent.

Are the best days over for Netflix’s growth?

The forward-looking nature of the markets mean that Netflix shareholders have already trained their sights on this year’s prospects and beyond. Some market estimates see Netflix boasting 300 million subscribers by 2024, but will have to first overcome near-term challenges.

Netflix is likely to post subdued year-on-year comparisons in 2021, given that the pandemic had front-loaded much of the company’s growth in the first half of 2020. It’s difficult to imagine Netflix repeating or beating such a feat during this current quarter and next.

For example, the streaming giant added 15.8 million subscribers in Q1 2020. According to the Bloomberg consensus estimates, Netflix is expected to add “only” 7.3 million more subscribers in the current quarter, which would be less than half of the total added in the first three months of 2020.

More price hikes to come?

Besides being tested on its ability to lure even more subscribers, Netflix will also be tested on its ability to retain existing customers. The streaming giant began a new price hike cycle in September, with the US seeing an 8-13% price hike in Q4, while prices in the UK and Ireland were raised in December. Subscribers in Germany had to start paying more last week. More price hikes are expected in other markets soon.

As long as Netflix can limit the subscriber churn amid these price hikes, that should bode well for its top line, with revenue set to come in at $6.6 billion in Q4 2020, which would mark an increase of over 20 percent compared to the same period in 2019.

Still, such prices hikes should raise the ARPU (average revenue per user) – which means Netflix is becoming more efficient in generating more income per subscriber – even as the top line revenue sees slowing year-on-year growth for a 5th consecutive quarter.

What are Netflix’s plans for this year?

Amid the price hikes, Netflix has ambitious plans to keep its ever-demanding customers satiated.

The streaming giant is set to release 70 original films in 2021 (that’s more than one new title for every week), and that doesn’t include documentaries.

It remains to be seen how much this lineup of new titles can add to Netflix’s subscribers tally, given the tempting offerings by the likes of Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock and the like, all of whom are vying for a larger share of the streaming pie.

How do Netflix shares tend to react after earnings day?

Markets are already pricing in a 6.8 percent one-day move when Netflix shares resume trading after its earnings release. Also note that shareholders have seized the opportunity to book profits after the last four consecutive earnings announcements, while single-day declines have been registered in 8 out of the past 12 earnings announcements.

Netflix bulls are going to need an outsized positive surprise on Tuesday or a very bullish outlook from the company’s top brass that markets can buy into. Such rhetoric may put Netflix shares on a path towards breaking past the upper limits of its 7-month long-range and potentially set a new record high.

Written on 19/01/2021 08:30 GMT by Han Tan, Market Analyst at FXTM

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Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

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EUR/NZD 78.6 Zone Shows Fresh Sellers

The EUR/NZD is bearish and it’s having a retracement. We could see a bit of selling in the zone provided that the market gains volatility.

1.7005-30 is the POC zone. We can also see a descending trend line which adds to the confluence. D H3 camarilla pivot is resistance. The price should drop towards 1.6926 and 1.6821 which is also the ATR projection low. 1. 6802 is W L3 level, so pay attention to it once the price starts to move down. Only above 1.7077, bulls will gain momentum and the trend will change.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

 

How Might Netflix’s Q4 Earnings Affect Its Share Price?

While we await the confirmation of such numbers from Netflix, which is set to announce its Q4 results after US markets close on Tuesday …

“Note that a lot of the tailwinds for this pandemic darling has already been baked into its share prices.”

How have Netflix’s share prices performed so far in 2021?

In fact, its stock prices have dropped by 7.9 percent so far this year, and is still keeping to the same range since July. Though to be fair to the bulls, Netflix’s shares had a remarkable year in 2020, registering an annual advance of 67.1 percent.

“Still, with its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMA) now flat, Netflix’s shares are clearly in need of a new major catalyst to break out of its sideways trend.”

Are the best days over for Netflix’s growth?

The forward-looking nature of the markets mean that Netflix shareholders have already trained their sights on this year’s prospects and beyond.

“Some market estimates see Netflix boasting 300 million subscribers by 2024, but will have to first overcome near-term challenges.”

Netflix is likely to post subdued year-on-year comparisons in 2021, given that the pandemic had front-loaded much of the company’s growth in the first half of 2020. It’s difficult to imagine Netflix repeating or beating such a feat during this current quarter and next.

For example, the streaming giant added 15.8 million subscribers in Q1 2020. According to the Bloomberg consensus estimates, Netflix is expected to add “only” 7 million more subscribers in the current quarter, which would be less than half of the total added in the first three months of 2020.

What are Netflix’s plans for this year?

Amid plans to grow its global subscribers base, Netflix also has to keep its ever-demanding customers satiated. With such a goal in mind, the streaming giant is set to release 70 original films in 2021 (that’s more than one new title for every week), and that doesn’t include documentaries.

It remains to be seen how much this lineup of new titles can add to Netflix’s subscribers tally, given the tempting offerings by the likes of Disney+, HBO Max, Peacock and the like, all of whom are vying for a larger share of the streaming pie.

Earnings day volatility

Markets are already pricing in a 6.8 percent one-day move when Netflix shares resume trading after its earnings release.

“Also note that shareholders have seized the opportunity to book profits after the last four consecutive earnings announcements, while single-day declines have been registered after 8 out of the past 12 earnings announcements.”

Netflix bulls are going to need an outsized positive surprise on Tuesday, or a very bullish outlook from the company’s top brass that markets can buy into. Such rhetoric may put Netflix shares on a path towards breaking past the upper limits of its 7-month long range and potentially set a new record high.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

US Stocks Recap (15th Jan): Stocks Decline, More May be Coming

We’ve reached a very critical juncture in the markets. Last week, I mentioned how this reminded me of the Q4 2018 pullback ( read my story here ), and still maintain that there is way too much complacency in this market. Stock markets are risky for a reason, something many Robinhood traders are sure to find out this year.

My goal for these updates is to educate you, give you ideas, and help you manage money like I did when I was pressing the buy and sell buttons for $600+ million in assets. I left that career to pursue one where I could help people who needed help, instead of the ultra-high net worth. Hopefully, you’ll find the below enlightening from my perspective, and I welcome your thoughts and questions.

Stocks closed the week with their first weekly declines in nearly a month.

The pullbacks weren’t anything astronomical, but it could potentially be the start of the Q1 declines that I have been predicting.

For one, valuations are insane, and the tech IPO market is looking like clown school. The S&P 500 is trading near its highest forward P/E ratio since 2000, while the Russell 2000 has never traded this high above its 200-day moving average.

Signs are starting to point towards the return of inflation by mid-year as well. As the 10-year yield ticked up to its highest level since March, economist Mohammed El-Erian said “if we were to see another 20 basis point move in yields, that would be bad news.”

Expectations haven’t been this high for inflation in years either. According to Edward Jones , the 10-year breakeven rate hit its highest level since 2018 last week due to rising commodity prices, a weaker dollar, and broad stimulus policy. The 10-year breakeven rate is a market-based measure of inflation expectations.

What’s also concerning is that investors didn’t seem to bat an eye at Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package !

What does this tell me?

That maybe this was anticipated and priced in already. According to Jim Cramer on his Mad Money show on CNBC, “When an event occurs and the market gets exactly what it wants, but nothing more, it’s treated as a reason to sell, not to buy.”

Although this week’s decline was moderate, I still feel that a correction between now and the end of Q1 2020 is likely amidst a tug of war between good news and bad news.

Generally, corrections are healthy for markets and more common than most realize. Only twice in the last 38 years have we had years WITHOUT a correction (1995 and 2017). The last time we saw one was in March 2020, so we could be well overdue.

Corrections are healthy market behavior and could be an excellent buying opportunity for what should be a great second half of the year.

Therefore, to sum it up:

While there is long-term optimism, there are short-term concerns. A short-term correction between now and Q1 2021 is possible. I don’t think that a decline above ~20%, leading to a bear market will happen.

I hope everyone has a great day. Best of luck, and happy trading!

Time to Wager – Is the Dow Over/Under 31,000 Before the End of January?

Figure 1- Dow Jones Industrial Average $INDU

Is it possible to choose “push” on this gamble?

I have too many short-term questions and concerns about the Dow Jones to unequivocally say it’s overheated like the Russell or tech IPOs, or if it’s at the right buying level.

Although the Dow’s RSI is comparable to the Nasdaq’s on the surface, it has also not exceeded overbought levels as much.

I do like the Dow’s decline this week. But I’d like to see a more profound dip before buying back in.

If someone wanted to make an over/under bet with me on the Dow’s 31,000 level by the end of January, the truth is I’d probably choose “push.” You’d have better luck betting on the AFC Championship game this year (but only if Mahomes plays).

I don’t like how COVID-19 is trending (who does?), I am disappointed in the vaccine roll-out (although it’s improving), and I am concerned about short-term economic and political headwinds. But I think it’s more likely than not that the Dow hovers around 31,000 by month’s end rather than make any significant move upwards or downwards. It is very hard right now to make a conviction call on this index.

If and when there is a drop in the index, it probably won’t be anything like we saw back in March 2020.

While a 35,000 call to close out 2021 is a bit aggressive, the second half of 2021 could show robust gains for the index once vaccines are available to the general public.

With so much uncertainty, the call on the Dow stays a HOLD. I am closely monitoring the RSI if it exceeds 70.

For an ETF that looks to directly correlate with the Dow’s performance, the SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is a strong option.

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. I encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter – it’s absolutely free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to the premium daily Stock Trading Alerts as well as our other Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Thank you.

Matthew Levy, CFA
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

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All essays, research, and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Matthew Levy, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Matthew Levy, CFA, and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Levy is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Matthew Levy, CFA’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading, and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Matthew Levy, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees, and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

U.S. Dollar Index: Another Dead Cat Bounce?

“The former king of the currency markets is on a mission to reclaim the throne, appreciating against every single G10, most Asian and Emerging market currencies since the start of 2021.”

What is boosting the US Dollar?

A key theme stimulating appetite for the Dollar could be higher treasury yields.

It must be kept in mind that high yield bonds tend to attract foreign investors, which sell their local currency to buy the U.S Dollar in order to purchase the bonds. This results in the U.S Dollar appreciating against those currencies.

Bulls seem to also be deriving strength from the improving economic outlook. The prospects of more fiscal stimulus and vaccine rollouts continue to brighten the outlook for the largest economy in the world. Why wouldn’t you want to hold the currency of a country that could recover rapidly in 2021?

What could spoil the party?

“The great ‘reflation trade’ will most likely remain a thorn in the side of bulls.”

Reflation is a fiscal or monetary policy designed to expand economic output, stimulate spending, and curb the effects of deflation. Given how inflationary pressures may rise amid the jump in consumption, this may weaken the purchasing power of the Dollar. Another thing to keep in mind is that the Federal Reserve is keen to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary stance into the foreseeable future. The combination of lower interest rates and rising inflationary pressures may throw a proverbial wrench in the works for bulls.

Enough of the fundamentals, let’s talk technicals

The basis of technical analysis is formed by Dow theory.

  •  Prices are a comprehensive reflection of all market forces.
  • Prices are repetitive, history will repeat itself.
  •  Prices trend.

Taking a look at the Dollar Index on the weekly timeframe, we can see that prices are trending lower while history has repeated itself on numerous occasions with various pivotal levels.

The question that comes to mind is whether the current rebound is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. As the chart above illustrates, this is not the first time the Dollar has risen from the ashes like a phoenix…only to be smashed back down into the dirt.

If this rebound is the real deal, bulls will need a secure a solid weekly close above 92.00 which may signal the end of the downtrend. Above 92.00, the next key level of interest may be found at 95.00.

Things are looking spicy on the daily…

An inverse head and shoulders candlestick pattern can be identified on the daily charts.

The daily close above 90.50 could signal another leg up for the Dollar Index with 92.00 acting as the first and possible final destination for bulls before bears re-enter the scene.

Should 90.50 prove to be unreliable support, the Dollar Index may resume its descent into the abyss with 89.00 and 88.30 acting as the first of many bearish checkpoints.

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Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

FXTM Forex Trading Strategies Part 1 – Webinar Jan 19

The purpose of this webinar series is to explore the Forex Trading Strategies guide located on the FXTM website. In the first installment of this three-part series, both trading strategies and types of trades will be discussed and demonstrated on live charts. This presentation will help participants to gain confidence in their own trading skills. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from one of our experts from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented has been approved by the Company’s Key Individual, in accordance to FSCA guidelines.

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FXTM Trading Educator Theunis Kruger has always been fascinated by economics, with a particular interest in ‘wave’ formations and how they can be used to forecast and analyse trends in the financial markets. With a decade of solid trading experience to his name, Theunis now enjoys sharing his knowledge with others.

FXTM Forex Trading Strategies Part 2 – Webinar Jan 20

The purpose of this webinar series is to explore the Forex Trading Strategies guide located on the FXTM website. In the second installment of this three-part series, the Blade Runner Trade, the Daily Fibonacci Pivot Trade, the Bolly Band Bounce Trade and more will be discussed and demonstrated on live charts. This presentation will help participants to gain confidence in their own trading skills. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from one of our experts from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented has been approved by the Company’s Key Individual, in accordance to FSCA guidelines.
  • Log in or register
  • Click ‘Join Now’ on your chosen Webinar
  • Check your inbox for the webinar link
FXTM Trading Educator Theunis Kruger has always been fascinated by economics, with a particular interest in ‘wave’ formations and how they can be used to forecast and analyse trends in the financial markets. With a decade of solid trading experience to his name, Theunis now enjoys sharing his knowledge with others.

FXTM Forex Trading Strategies Part 3 – Webinar Jan 26

The purpose of this webinar series is to explore the Forex Trading Strategies guide located on the FXTM website. In the third installment of this three-part series, the London Hammer Trade, the Forex Fractal Trade, the Forex Dual Stochastics Trade and more will be discussed and demonstrated on live charts. This presentation will help participants to gain confidence in their own trading skills. Don’t miss out on the chance to learn from one of our experts from the comfort of your own home! All the material presented has been approved by the Company’s Key Individual, in accordance to FSCA guidelines.

REGISTER FOR FREE

  • Log in or register
  • Click ‘Join Now’ on your chosen Webinar
  • Check your inbox for the webinar link

FXTM Trading Educator Theunis Kruger has always been fascinated by economics, with a particular interest in ‘wave’ formations and how they can be used to forecast and analyse trends in the financial markets. With a decade of solid trading experience to his name, Theunis now enjoys sharing his knowledge with others.

GOOG Stock Could Offer 10% Discount After Pullback

The Alphabet Inc (Goog) is building a bearish retracement within a strong uptrend. Our article reviews the key bull and bear lines.

This will determine whether a deeper pullback against the trend will take place. Or will the bulls manage to continue higher in the trend.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

Google 18.01.2021 daily chart

The GOOG stock is showing a head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (red boxes). The support line (green) is the main decision zone for a potential reversal.

  • A bearish breakout (orange arrows) confirms the deeper bearish retracement towards the long-term moving averages and Fibonacci levels.
  • It also confirms the deeper wave 4 (pink) development rather than the shallower wave 4 (grey).
  • An immediate breakout (green arrows) above the resistance (orange) indicates a potential uptrend continuation.
  • The Fibs are expected to act as a bouncing spot (blue arrows).
  • Only a deeper retracement places the uptrend in question (yellow & red circles).

On the 4 hour chart, the sideways price action is an ABC (orange) pattern. The main question is whether the ABC pattern is complete OR will price action expand it.

  • The end of the ABC is confirmed by a bullish breakout.
  • The continuation of the ABC pattern can take place with 2 variants:
    • ABCDE triangle chart pattern
    • Deeper ABC retracement after bearish breakout

In all cases, an uptrend is expected eventually. Unless price pushes below the $1,500 round level.

Google 18.01.2021 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter