Crypto Market Daily Highlights – US CPI and Merge News Deliver for ETH

Key Insights:

  • It is a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten, with Ethereum (ETH) leading the way.
  • While network news updates delivered ETH support, softer US inflation figures eased bets of a Fed 75-basis point rate hike, driving demand for riskier assets.
  • The total crypto market cap is up by $36.4 billion to $1,110 billion.

It is a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. In a choppy session, bitcoin (BTC) revisited the $24,000 handle for the second time in ten sessions. However, Ethereum (ETH) leads the way, with sentiment towards the Goerli Merge and US CPI numbers delivering strong support.

There were no cues from the crypto market news wires to provide support, leaving the crypto market in the hands of market risk sentiment and US economic indicators.

On Tuesday, the broader crypto market endured a bearish session as investors turned their attention to US inflation and the Fed. Ahead of the Wednesday CPI numbers, the consensus was for a 75 basis point Fed rate hike, supported by the latest nonfarm payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers.

However, bets of a 75-basis point hike eased, with the markets pricing in a 50-basis point move in response to the July inflation figures. In July, the US annual rate of inflation softened from 9.1% to 8.5% versus a forecast of 8.7%.

Abating fears of a US economic recession and the Fed taking a more aggressive rate path to bring inflation to target were market positives. Market reaction was broad-based, with the NASDAQ 100 ending a three-day losing streak with a 2.89% breakout session.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 110822 5 Min Chart

The Total Crypto Market Cap Surges on Inflation Numbers

On Wednesday, the total crypto market cap slid to an early low of $1,050 billion before steadying. Before the US inflation numbers, the market cap remained in negative territory with a market cap of $1,072 billion.

In response to the softer US CPI numbers, the total crypto market cap surged to a high of $1,127 billion before easing back. Currently, $36.4 billion has flooded in, taking the market cap to $1,110 billion.

Crypto market reacts to US CPIs
Total Market Cap 110822 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten.

With three hours of the session remaining, ETH is up 7.52% to lead the way, with DOT gaining 5.02%.

ADA (+3.70%), BTC (2.62%), SOL (+3.27%), and XRP (+2.64%) have also found strong support, while BNB (+0.62%) trails.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Lido DAO (LDO) is among the front runners, rallying by 15.6%. Aave (AAVE) and Near Protocol (NEAR) aren’t far behind, with gains of 12.91% and 10.02%, respectively.

A handful of cryptos were in the red. Oasis Labs (ROSE) leads the way down, falling by 2.70%, with UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and Zcash (ZEC) down by 1.97% and 1.53%, respectively.

Total Crypto Liquidations Spike in Response to the US CPI Numbers

Late in the Wednesday session, total liquidations remained elevated due to the US CPI figures, due to closing shorts.

24-hour liquidations continued the upward trend after sitting at sub-$100 million levels for two consecutive sessions.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $282 million, up from $203 million on Wednesday morning.

However, liquidated traders decreased over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 63,664 versus 82,754 on Wednesday morning.

While 24-hour liquidations remain elevated, market conditions have improved. 12-hour liquidations stand at $208 million, while one-hour and four-hour liquidations have declined, reflecting a steadying in the crypto market.

According to Coinglass, four-hour liquidations stood at $16.52, up from $9.05 million on Wednesday morning. One-hour liquidations are down from $3.59 million to $2.56 million (see hourly crypto market cap chart below).

Crypto liquidations reflect steadying market conditions
Total Market Cap 110822 Hourly Chart

Daily News Highlights

  • Crypto giant Coinbase missed earnings estimates.
  • DeFi Protocol Curve Finance (CRV) lost $570k in a DNS hack.
  • Crypto exchange FTX formed a partnership with Reddit.
  • Ripple Lab eyes Celsius assets.
  • US Inflation figures delivered the crypto market a breakout session.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Breaks Through the 200 Day EMA

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has broken above the 200 Day EMA during the trading session in the E-mini futures market, suggesting that we are going to make a serious threat to breaking out above the 4200 level. If we do, that opens up the possibility of a move to the 4300 level, something that looks very likely based upon the momentum. Having said that, you need to be cautious because there are a lot of crosscurrents going on at the moment. I think the 4300 level will be very difficult to break up above, so you will certainly have to think of volatility through the prism of the VIX.

If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the impulsive candlestick that we have formed on Wednesday, that would be a very negative sign and could send this market back down. One thing is for sure, we are clearly at an area that’s a major inflection point on the charts. The initial reaction has been strong to the CPI number, so now the question is whether or not the market can continue its upward momentum and rally even further. I think at this point it looks more likely than not, so the next battle might be the 4300 level.

Expect extreme amounts of volatility, because even though the CPI number came in lower than anticipated, it is still about 3 ½ times where the Federal Reserve wants to see it. In other words, it’s probably only a matter of time before somebody out there on the Federal Reserve Board tries to talk this back down.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 11.08.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Can Build Over 33202

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading sharply higher shortly after the cash market opening on Wednesday after a government report showing slower-than-expected headline and core inflation in July induced traders to cut their bets on a third straight super-sized 75-basis-point interest rate hike at its September 21 meeting.

At 14:24 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33261, up 524 or +1.60%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $332.67, up $4.76 or +1.45%.

Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Drives Demand for Riskier Assets

U.S. consumer inflation did not rise in July compared with June, marking the slowest monthly inflation in more than two years, as fuel prices dropped.

Given the soft inflation figures, traders are now pricing in a 37.5% chance of a 75-basis-point increase in fund rates at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting in September, compared with 67.5% before the data.

Stocks sensitive to lower interest rates are producing the best results on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs Group is up 3.13%. American Express is 2.62% higher and JPMorgan Chase is experiencing a 2.49% gain.

The only loser in the group is Chevron Corp, which is down 0.69%, because of lower crude oil prices.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through the last main top at 33255 reaffirmed the uptrend. A move through 32342 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 32662 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 35405 to 29639. The market is currently testing the upper level of its retracement zone at 33202. On the downside, support is a 50% level at 32522.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 33202 will determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close on Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33202 will indicate the presence of buyers. A sustained move over the main top at 33255 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a near-term rally into the May 5 top at 34011.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33202 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the minor pivot at 32805. If this fails, the selling is likely to extend into the 50% level at 32522.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crypto Market Responds to Softer US CPIs with ETH Leading the Charge

Key Insights:

  • Tuesday’s bearish crypto session spilled over to today’s morning session, with Binance Coin (BNB) leading the top ten in the red.
  • An investor shift in focus to US inflation figures for July sent the top ten and the broader market into reverse.
  • Investors responded to July numbers with a sharp rebound as US inflationary pressures softened.

It was a bearish morning session, with the total crypto market cap sliding to an early low of $1,053 billion. Through the morning, the crypto market recovered from lows ahead of the all-important US inflation figures.

With 30-minutes before the release, the total crypto market cap was down by $1.41 billion to $1,072 billion.

Crypto Mkt Cap 30 mins pre CPI release
Crypto Market Cap Daily Chart 100822

Investor angst over Fed monetary policy resulted in a greater interest in today’s US CPI numbers. Last week, US non-farm payrolls and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI led to the market’s pricing in a 75-basis point rate hike in September. A sharp pickup in inflation could force the Fed to deliver a more hawkish move, which would weigh on riskier assets.

Across the top ten by market cap, Binance Coin (BNB) led the way down, with a 2.25% loss.

Polkadot (DOT), Ripple (XRP), and bitcoin (BTC) were also in the red, while Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) saw modest gains.

By contrast, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 54 points, with the markets betting on softer numbers.

US Inflation Comes in at 8.5%, Softer than Forecasts, and June’s 9.1%

According to the July report, the annual rate of US inflation softened from 9.1% to 8.5%. Economists forecast a rate of 8.7%. The energy index increased 32.9% for the 12 months ending July, which was softer than +41.6% for the period ending June.

The Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers was unchanged in July after rising by 1.3% in June. The gasoline index fell 7.7%, offsetting increases in the food and shelter indexes.

Crypto Market Rallies in Response to Softer than Expected US CPIs

The investor reaction to the softer US inflation figures was immediately evident.

In the minutes after the release of the CPI report, the crypto total market cap jumped from $1,070 billion to $1,102 billion, adding $32 billion in a matter of minutes before easing back.

Crypto Market Cap surges in response to softer inflation numbers
Crypto Market Cap Rally 100822 – 30 Minute Chart

Today’s inflation figures should remove bets of a percentage point rate hike and reduce the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike next month. While some caution is needed, with the Fed set for another round of numbers before the September FOMC meeting, the recent slide in crude oil prices currently supports a softer inflation outlook that is crypto market positive.

Looking across the crypto top ten, it was a sea of green as investors responded to the numbers.

At the time of writing, ETH was up 4.68% to lead the way. SOL (+2.91%), BTC (+2.36%), ADA (3.31%), and XRP (+1.93%) were also on the move.

BNB and DOT were also in the green, with modest gains of 0.46% and 0.47%, respectively.

In response to the CPIs, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 305.5 points.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Rally Fueled by Surprise Core Inflation Dip

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are testing the high for the session shortly after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 GMT. Yields are dropping, which is helping to give the benchmark index a boost.

The market is moving higher in the premarket session because the key inflation reading showed a better than expected slowdown in rising prices.

The headline consumer price index rose 8.5% in July less than expected as inflation pressures eased a little. Traders were looking for a reading of 8.7% in July from a year ago.

Core inflation rose 0.3% for the month versus a 0.5% forecast. The dip in core inflation was a surprise and that encouraged stock futures investors to buy aggressively.

On the earnings front, Disney quarterly results are due after the bell Wednesday.

At 12:50 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4196.75, up 72.25 or +1.75%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) settled at $411.33, down $1.66 or -0.40%.

Ahead of the opening, Tesla announced that CEO Elon Musk sold 7.9 million shares for $6.9 billion, according to SEC filings released Tuesday night.

After the dust settles from the consumer inflation report, investors may shift their focus back to the main driver of the selling this week – trouble in the chip sector. On Tuesday, Micron warned on revenue and negative cash flow. That came a day after NVIDIA slashed sales forecasts.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart.

The trade through 4188.00 signaled a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3723.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4103.75 will change the minor trend to down and reaffirm the shift in momentum. A move through the minor bottom at 4080.75 will also mean the selling pressure is getting stronger.

On the upside the nearest resistance is a long-term pivot at 4250.25. On the downside, the nearest support is a long-term 50% level at 4169.25, followed by a minor pivot at 4057.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at 4169.25 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4169.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the main top at 4204.75 will signal that the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into another long-term 50% level at 4250.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4169.25 will signal the return of sellers, while taking out 4124.50 will put the index lower for the session. This would put it in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slides to 31 on US Inflation Jitters

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) resumed the downward trend with a 2.78% fall to $23,157.
  • A shift in focus to US inflation figures sent the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index to 31/100, reversing Monday’s run at the Neutral zone.
  • A pickup in US inflationary pressure in July could see the Index at sub-30/100 and Bitcoin testing support at $20,000.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) slid by 2.78%. Reversing a 2.75% rally from Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $23,157. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $23,924 before hitting reverse. Facing resistance at $24,000, BTC slid to an early afternoon low of $22,881.

BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,238 before a partial recovery to $23,157.

Investor jitters over US inflation and the Fed weighed on riskier assets, with the NASDAQ 100 declining by 1.19%. Following the July nonfarm payroll and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers, the Fed may have the wriggle room to deliver a percentage point rate hike in the event of another spike in inflation.

A pickup in inflationary pressure would be crypto price negative.

NASDAQ 100 sends BTC into the red.
BTC-NASDAQ 100822 5-Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Slides to 31/100 on US Inflation Jitters

Today, the Fear & Greed Index slid from 42/100 to 31/100, reversing the Monday surge from 30/100 to 42/100. Tuesday’s BTC slide sent the Index back towards sub-30, which remains a critical level.

Fear & Greed Index slides back towards the Extreme Fear zone.
Fear & Greed Index – 100822

Having avoided sub-30, the BTC return to $24,000 had fueled hope of a reversal of the recent downswing. However, inflation and Fed monetary policy remain crypto headwinds.

Today’s US inflation figures will likely give the markets a better idea of what to expect from the September monetary policy decision.

For the bulls, weak numbers should support an Index run at Neutral (46/100), last visited on April 6. A return to Neutral would support a BTC move through $25,000 to bring $30,000 into play.

The Neutral zone remains unvisited since April 6.
Fear & Greed Chart 100822

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.11% to $22,899.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC slide from $23,157 to a low of $22,675. BTC tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,719.

BTC under early pressure
BTCUSD 100822 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $23,222 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,763 and the Tuesday high of $23,924.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a return to $23,500.

An extended crypto rebound would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $24,366 and resistance at $25,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $25,407.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,719 in play. In case of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,278 and support at $22,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,235.

BTC tests support levels early.
BTCUSD 100822 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $23,000.

The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price negative.

A 50-day EMA narrowing to the 100-day EMA would leave the Major Support Levels in play.

However, a break through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,265, to bring R1 ($23,763) into play.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A BTC move through the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,265, would support a run at $24,000 and the July high of $24,619.

From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ADA, ETH, and SOL See Heavy Losses

Key Insights:

  • It is a bearish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten, with Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) taking big hits.
  • Following a bullish Monday, a shift in investor focus towards US inflation and Wednesday’s CPI numbers sent riskier assets into the red.
  • The total crypto market cap is down $25 billion, leaving the market cap up by $17 billion for the month.

It is a bearish Monday session for the crypto top ten. In a choppy session, bitcoin (BTC) failed to revisit the $24,000 handle for the eighth time in nine sessions. Cardano (ADA), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) lead the way down.

Easing fears of a US economic recession took a backseat on Tuesday. The investor focus returned to inflation and Fed monetary policy. Investor jitters ahead of the US inflation numbers on Wednesday sent riskier assets into the red.

The NASDAQ 100 fell for a third consecutive day. A 1.19% decline weighed on the broader crypto market, with cryptos failing to break free from central bank monetary policy expectations.

On Wednesday, US consumer price index figures will be the key stats of the week. Following impressive nonfarm payroll and better-than-expected services PMI numbers, another spike in inflation could force the Fed into a percentage point move. A more aggressive path towards normalization would be crypto price negative.

NASDAQ correlation
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 100822 5 Min Chart

At the time of writing, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 14 points.

The Total Crypto Market Cap Tumbles on US Inflation Jitters

On Tuesday, the total crypto market cap rose to an early high of $1,113 billion before sliding to an early afternoon low of $1,036 billion. However, finding late support, the crypto market cap has reduced the deficit, with a return to $1,073 billion.

Down by $25.2 billion on Tuesday, the total crypto market cap is up by $17 billion for August.

Crypto market cap hits reverse on inflation jitters.
Total Market Cap 100822 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bearish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten.

With one hour remaining, SOL is down 3.96%, with ADA (-3.72%) and ETH (-3.71%) also struggling.

Things are not much better for BTC (-2.46%), DOT (-1.39%), and XRP (-2.64%), while BNB is down by 0.06%.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Celsius (CEL), Mina (MINA), and Zcash (ZEC) are among the front runners. CEL is up 14% to lead the way, with MINA and ZEC up 5.6% and 4.5%, respectively.

At the other end of the table, Curve DAO Token (CRV) is down 8.6%, with Filecoin (FIL) and Kusama (KSM) down 7.43% and 6.84%, respectively.

Total Crypto Liquidations Rise in Bearish Tuesday Session

This morning, 24-hour liquidations continued the upward trend after sitting at sub-$100 million levels for two consecutive sessions.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $203 million, up from $187 million on Tuesday morning.

Liquidated traders increased over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 82,754 versus 57,332 on Tuesday morning.

However, one-hour and four-hour liquidations declined, reflecting a partial recovery late in the session.

Crypto liquidations continue upward trend ahead of US CPIs
Total Crypto Liquidations 100822

According to Coinglass, four-hour liquidations stood at $9.05 million, down from $19.75 million on Tuesday morning. One-hour liquidations are down from $8.71 million to $3.59 million (see hourly crypto market cap chart below).

Crypto market cap finds late support
Total Market Cap 100822 Hourly Chart

Daily News Highlights

  • Australia’s central bank launched a one-year digital currency project.
  • Circle froze funds linked to Tornado Cash addresses.
  • China hit illegal websites and accounts for falsifying BTC returns.
  • A Deloitte report showed the crypto adoption outlook to surge over the next two years.

Nasdaq 100 Drops 1.15% Amid Further Pessemistic Chipmaker Guidance; Micron Dips 3.75%

Key Points

  • The major US equity indices fell across the board on Tuesday, led by downside in chipmakers amid further pessimistic guidance.
  • The Nasdaq 100 dipped 1.15%, but remained above the 13,000 level.
  • Hotter than expected Q2 Unit Labor Cost growth added to inflation worries, likely also weighing on sentiment somewhat.

Chipmakers Weigh on the Nasdaq 100 After Pessemistic Micron Revenue Guidance

The major US equity indices fell across the board on Tuesday, led by downside in chipmakers amid further pessimistic guidance, this time from Micron Technology. But the major indices for the most part remain close to recent multi-week highs, with investors in wait-and-see mode ahead of Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index data release.

The tech/growth stock dense Nasdaq 100 index was unsurprisingly the underperformer out of the major US indices, dropping over 1.0% on the day, though managing to hold above the 13,000 level. Micron cut its revenue forecast and warned investors of the likelihood it would see negative free cash flow in the near future amid waning demand for its chips as the personal computer and smartphone market weakens.

Micron’s gloomy update comes a day after the largest US chipmaker Nvidia issued a revenue warning to investors ahead of its earnings release on 24 August. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which is comprised of US chipmakers, tanked over 4.0% on Tuesday, taking its gains since last week’s highs to around 7.0%. The likes of Intel, AMD and Western Digital have all also recently issued pessimistic revenue guidance and warned about softening demand for their products. Despite this, the SOX index is still about 20% up from the annual lows it printed in early July.

Hot Q2 Unit Labor Cost Figures Add to Woes

The S&P 500, meanwhile, dropped about 0.4%, while the Dow Jone Industrial Average was down 0.2%. The worst performing of the eleven S&P 500 GICS sectors was Consumer Discretionary, which lost 1.5%. Information Technology was the next worst, losing 1.0%. Energy was the best performer, following a 1.8% gain, despite WTI prices ending the day broadly flat.

Data released on Tuesday showed US Nonfarm Productivity sliding 4.6% QoQ in Q2, roughly in line with expectations, while Unit Labor Costs surged 10.8% QoQ, above the expected gain of 9.5%, although lower than Q1’s 12.7% QoQ gain, probably weighed on sentiment a touch. Analysts said Tuesday’s data highlighted the fact that the US labor market remains tight and inflation concerns high. Rising wages can feed into higher consumer price inflation.

Traders were last pricing about a 70% chance that the Fed lifts interest rates by 75 bps for a third time in a row in September. Recent stronger than expected data (ISM PMI surveys and the US jobs report last week, plus this week’s data) and hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers have seen markets pare back on dovish bets made in late July that the Fed might slow the pace of tightening given a weakening economy.

Analysts said that traders could price in an even higher likelihood of a 75 bps rate hike in September if Wednesday’s US inflation figures print to the upside of expectations, which could weigh on equity market sentiment.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis –Down in Sympathy with Broad-Based Losses

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower on Tuesday, falling in sympathy with the broader-based NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 Index. Less exposure to technology shares is probably preventing the Dow from an even larger loss. Position-squaring ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report is also weighing on the blue chip average.

At 18:30 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 32740, down 52 or -0.16%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is at $328.04, down $0.38 or -0.12%.

The best performing stock in the Dow is Travelers Companies, up 1.59%. This is followed by Chevron Corp, up 1.26% and Merck & Co, up 1.17%. The weakest stocks were Salesforce, Nike and Home Depot, down 3.85%, 3.55% and 2.35%, respectively.

In economic news, preliminary second-quarter productivity figures came in slightly better than expected, but still showed a decline of 4.6%. Unit labor costs grew at an annualized rate of 10.8%, comfortably above the 9.5% expected, according to Dow Jones, but down from the prior quarter.

Looking ahead, traders are widely expecting Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report to show that decades-high-inflationary pressures eased in July following back-to-back 75-basis point hikes by the Fed in June and July aimed at combating soaring prices.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have risen 0.2%, down from last month’s 1.3% surge. Core CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% in July, lower than the 0.7% reading in June.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 33065 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 32342 will change the main trend to down.

The market is currently sitting inside a long-term retracement zone at 32522 to 33202.

The minor pivot at 32285 is the next support level.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to 32704 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini Dow into the close on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 32704 will indicate the presence of buyers. Turning higher for the session will indicate the late session buying is getting stronger.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 32704 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the long-term 50% level at 32522.

A break through 32522 could lead to a test of the main bottom at 32342, followed by a minor pivot at 32285.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Lilts Ahead of CPI

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday to show signs of hesitation and now looks likely to drop down to the 4100 level. You should also keep in mind that the market has rallied quite significantly for a while, so a little bit of a giveback would make a certain amount of sense. The 200 Day EMA also offers a lot of dynamic resistance, but perhaps most importantly, we have the CPI figures coming out on Wednesday.

Wall Street will be paying close attention to whether or not the Federal Reserve will have to tighten its monetary policy even further, or if they have to turn things around. At this point, Wall Street is all about the monetary flow more than anything else, because you need to remember that the stock market has nothing to do with the economy. We are most certainly in an area where we are going to run into trouble due to historical precedence, and the 4200 level is an area where we should see quite a bit of noise.

If we break down below the 4100 level, then it’s likely that we go looking toward the 50 Day EMA, which is sitting at roughly 4000. The 4000 level is an area that is going to attract a lot of attention, and therefore it might be a target for a short-term move. In general, we are at a major inflection point and therefore we need to get a little bit of clarity going. I believe that we will probably have that after the Wednesday session.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 10.08.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

BTC/USD Going Up as The Ascending Trendline Supports the Move Up

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

  • Move up as expected
  • I am holding the long position
  • Bullish trend slow but steady
  • M H3 then M H5 on strong breakout

MEGATREND MAs: Bullish

D1 Chart BTC/USD

  1. Trend line start
  2. Swing high
  3. Higher low
  4. Higher high
  5. Higher low
  6. Breakout target

The BTC/USD has become an asset. We can spot the strong correlation to US equities especially US100 and SNP500. The market is moving in slow but steady uptrend. You can see my position in the real account and I am of course holding it. When everyone were selling I was buying the BTC due to obvious reasons. The price is engaged in an ascending flat top triangle and the first target is around 25000.

Why do you need inflation? For equities to climb higher. Basically, when there is inflation it means goods and services are being priced higher. which means more revenue for companies. On the flip-side, it can mean more costs for companies. The positive correlation in the BTC/USD and Equity markets is evident and the market should move to the first target. If 25000 breaks we are on the way towards 31000 zone again.

This analysis, and all entry signals and targets are a part of the Megatrend trading course. I have 1 long position that I will maintain until the intraweek / monthly target and possible swing.The first target is 25000 while the swing target is 31300. Position management is very important once you are in a trade.

Cheers and safe trading,

Nenad

US Inflation Could Spark Volatility in Summer Markets

Written on 09/08/2022 by Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

US CPI set to spark fireworks in summer markets?

Summer markets historically mean low volumes and quiet flows. Traders are on vacation and risk taking is in go-slow gear until trading desks are fully manned again in September. But that doesn’t mean we don’t get volatility and certainly some head-scratching trying to rationalise price action.

Tomorrow sees the release of the latest US inflation data which is expected to show that price pressures still abound and are way above the Fed’s 2% target. Volatility could follow for sure, and it also means the world’s most important central bank should remain in rate hiking mode until the end of the year.

There’s no doubt some PMI surveys have been indicating slowing price pressures, especially as commodity markets have eased, while year-ago base effects will shift to pulling inflation rates lower. The headline inflation rate is forecast to rise just 0.2% on a monthly basis which would be the smallest gain since January 2021 and slow the annual figure to 8.7% from 9.1%.

But the core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy factors, is forecast to get a further lift from rising housing costs and post a 0.4% monthly gain. This should see keep the year-on-year rate at 6% and definitely focus the minds of policymakers.

After the blockbuster jobs report and full recovery in nonfarm payrolls seen last week, markets have priced in another 75-basis point hike for the Fed’s September meeting. Recession fears have abated with accelerating wage growth and unemployment falling back to multi-decade lows.

The recent pushback by numerous FOMC officials that it wasn’t done hiking rates has also gained increasing credibility. But we still have over six weeks until the next FOMC meeting, with more CPI and non-farm payrolls data to be released.

Bottom line

Pressure will grow on policymakers to hike rates by another jumbo-sized move if core CPI remains hot. Some Wall Street strategists are even suggesting a 100-basis point rate hike could be on the cards. Money markets have priced rates to go to 3.5% by year end and tomorrow’s data is likely to support this pricing and underpin the dollar bid seen recently.

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Markets Mixed as Spotlight Shines on US CPI

Overnight, Wall Street’s main indices were mostly flat with a sales warning from Nvidia dragging down the tech sector.

Looking at currencies, king dollar has retreated from recent highs while EUR/USD is trading around the sticky 1.02 level. Gold seems to be waiting for a fresh fundamental spark while oil prices are under pressure as OPEC’s monthly report and EIA data loom.

On the data front, Australian consumer sentiment slumped in August thanks to the horrible combination of soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and gloomy outlook on living costs. This marks the ninth consecutive month that sentiment has stayed negative.

Will US Inflation report spark fireworks?

The main risk event and potential market shaker this week will be the latest US inflation figures published on Wednesday. After accelerating by 9.1% in June, markets are forecasting a cooling in July annual inflation to 8.7%. Should expectations match reality, this could be a breath of fresh air for financial markets and fuel optimism around inflation plateauing.

Given how markets remain obsessive and incredibly reactive to any topic relating to rising prices, explosive levels of volatility could be on the cards.

If US consumer prices defy market expectations by rising again, this is likely to reinforce expectations around the Fed hiking rates by another 75 basis points in September. According to Bloomberg, traders are currently pricing in this scenario with around a 74% probability.

Alternatively, if the inflation report meets or misses expectations, this could raise hopes over consumer prices peaking. Such a development could encourage the Fed to step back from its aggressive approach toward hiking rates, which could send the dollar tumbling and Treasury yields declining.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold was able to recover from last Friday’s selloff after the strong jobs report cooled recession fears and fortified expectations for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. Bulls wasted little time in clawing back the post-NFP losses yesterday with prices trading around $1785.50 as of writing.

Although buyers have been in the driving seat for the past three weeks, the pending US CPI report could shift the balance of power between bulls and bears. A strong inflation report could deal zero-yielding gold a heavy blow as aggressive rate hike bets jump. Alternatively, a weak report may provide the precious metal an opportunity to push higher.

Looking at things from a technical perspective, there are a couple of tough resistance levels that bulls may face down the road. The first one is around $1785 where the 50-day SMA resides and $1830, a key point just below the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. If bears end up dominating the scene, prices may sink back towards $1752 and $1724.

For more information visit FXTM.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Jumps to 42 on BTC Return to $24,000

Key Insights:

  • On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rose for the second consecutive session, with a 2.75% gain reversing last week’s 0.55% loss.
  • An investor shift in sentiment towards the US economic outlook likely contributed to Monday’s bullish session.
  • After holding steady for two sessions, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index responded to a BTC return to $24,000 with a jump to 42/100.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 2.75%. Following a 0.98% gain on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $23,818. The bullish session marked only the third rise in eleven sessions. Significantly, BTC revisited the $24,000 handle for the first time in eight sessions.

A bullish morning saw BTC rally from an early low of $23,162 to a mid-day high of $24,245.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,435 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,691. However, a late pullback saw BTC fall back to sub-$24,000. R2 delivered late support.

It was another quiet day on the crypto news wires. Reports of another crypto lender, Hodlnaut, halting withdrawals failed to impact investor sentiment.

Ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation figures, last week’s better-than-expected US economic indicators continued to deliver support. The upside for BTC and the broader crypto market came despite the NASDAQ 100 seeing red for the second consecutive session. Fears of another sizeable Fed rate hike in September left the NASDAQ on the back foot.

BTC tracks the NASDAQ before a choppy post US market close.
BTC-NASDAQ 090822 5-Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Jumps to 42/100 in Response to BTC Rally

Today, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 30/100 to 42/100. Bitcoin’s third rise in eleven sessions included a return to $24,000, likely the key to the Index return to 42/100.

Fear & Greed Index gets BTC boost
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index – 090822

Having avoided sub-30, the BTC return to $24,000 fueled hope of an end to the recent downswing that saw BTC fall to sub-$22,500.

The Index return to 42/100 matched the previous high on July 30, bringing the Neutral zone back into view.

An Index return to Neutral, last visited on April 6, would support a BTC move through $25,000 to bring $30,000 into play.

Fear & Greed Index eyes a return to Neutral
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.10% to $23,842.

BTC on the move
BTCUSD 090822 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $23,741 pivot to target the Monday high of $24,245 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,322.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a return to $24,000.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $24,824 and resistance at $25,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $25,908.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,240 into play.

In case of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test support at $23,000 while avoiding the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,659.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,576.

BTC resistance levels in play
BTCUSD 090822 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,285.

The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price positive.

A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 to bring R2 and $25,000 into play.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring S1 ($23,240) and the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,980, into play.

EMAs bullish
BTCUSD 090822 4 Hourly Chart

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the June high.

From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

Trends
BTCUSD 090822 Trend Analysis

 

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – Ethereum (ETH) leads the Crypto Top Ten

Key Insights:

  • It is a bullish start to the week for the crypto top ten, with Ethereum (ETH) and Polkadot (DOT) leading the way.
  • Investors continued to brush aside fears of a more substantial Fed rate hike, with the recent US economic indicators easing concerns over a US recession.
  • The total crypto market cap is up by $26.61 billion to $1,101 billion.

It is a bullish Monday session for the crypto top ten. In a choppy session, bitcoin (BTC) revisited the $24,000 handle for the first time in eight sessions. Ethereum (ETH) leads the way, striking $1,800 for the first time since June 10.

Better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers from last week remained the key driver. Fears of a US economic recession had weighed on the broader crypto market ahead of last week’s stats.

However, in contrast to the US equity markets, crypto investors seemed less concerned with another sizeable Fed interest rate hike. The outcome was decoupling from the NASDAQ 100, which ended the day in the red for a second session.

Following the NASDAQ 100’s 0.50% loss on Friday, the NASDAQ 100 declined by 0.10%.

At the time of writing, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 14.25 points.

NASDAQ correlation weakens
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 090822 5 Min Chart

The Total Crypto Market Cap Starts the Week on the Rise

On Monday, the total crypto market cap fell to an early low of $1,072 billion before surging to a mid-day high of $1,127 billion. However, another late pullback saw the market cap slip to $1,095 billion before steadying. The crypto total market cap last ended the day at the $1,100 billion mark on June 11.

Up by $26.61 billion on Monday, the total crypto market cap is up by $45 billion for August.

Crypto market cap returns to $1,100 billion
Total Market Cap 090822 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bullish Monday session for the crypto top ten.

With one hour remaining, ETH and DOT lead the way, with gains of 4.73% and 4.58%, respectively, with SOL up by 4.01%

ADA (+1.52%), BNB (+0.40%), BTC (+2.78%), and XRP (+1.55%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

The Graph (GRT) leads the way, rallying by 15.5%, with Flow (FLOW) and NEAR Protocol (NEAR) close behind. With one hour to go, FLOW is up 14.11%, with NEAR up by 10.81%.

However, Lido DAO (LDO) leads the way down, falling by 6.26%, with Decred (DCR) and Theta Network (THETA) seeing losses of 6.25% and 4.19%, respectively.

Total Crypto Liquidations Jump in Bullish Monday Session

This morning, 24-hour liquidations were higher after sitting at sub-$100 million for two consecutive sessions.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $187 million, up from $63 million on Monday morning.

Liquidated traders increased over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 57,332 versus 27,681 on Monday morning.

One-hour and four-hour liquidations also increased, reflecting a late market pullback as investors locked in profits ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation numbers.

Crypto liquidations rise.
Total Crypto Liquidations 090822

According to Coinglass, four-hour liquidations stood at $19.75 million, up from $16.91 million on Monday morning. One-hour liquidations were up from $3.89 million to $8.71 million (see hourly crypto market cap chart below).

Crypto market cap eases back.
Total Market Cap 090822 Hourly Chart

Daily News Highlights

  • Crypto.com gets South Korea regulatory approval.
  • Vitalik Buterin sees transaction fees down to as little as $0.02.
  • Beanstalk’s stablecoin relaunches 4-months after a $182 million exploit.
  • Coca-Cola (COKE) celebrates International Friendship Day with Polygon (MATIC).

Wall Street Mixed As Investors Await US CPI Figures; Nasdaq 100 Loses 0.4%, Dow Gains 0.1%

Key Points

  • Wall Street was mixed on Monday, with the major indices pulling back from multi-month highs printed early in the day.
  • The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4% while the Dow rose 0.1%.
  • Investors were upbeat following last week’s strong US data, but cautious ahead of this week’s US CPI release.

Wall Street Mixed as Investors Turn Focus to Upcoming CPI Report

Wall Street was mixed on Monday, with stocks for the most part pulling back from fresh multi-month highs printed in the early part of the session. The S&P 500 at one point pushed as high as the 4,180s to surpass its early June highs in the 4,170s, before pulling back to below 4,150. The Nasdaq 100 nearly hit 13,400 before pulling back to close closer to 13,150, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average still managed to close about 0.1% higher just above 32,800, after briefly surpassing the 33,000 level for the first time since 8 June.

Investors were in a relatively upbeat mood on Monday as they focused more on the positive signals that last week’s strong US ISM PMI survey and jobs data sent about the US economy, as opposed to focussing on concerns about a faster pace of Fed tightening in order to contain inflation in a US economy that is seemingly still running quite hot.

Fed policymaker Michelle Bowman said over the weekend that the Fed should continue to consider 75 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings. Other Fed policymakers have recently doubled down on the fact that the bank is determined to tackle multi-decade high inflation, which has been seen by analysts as pushback against markets that in late July had moved to scale back Fed tightening bets in 2023.

The market’s optimistic take on things will be put to the test on Wednesday when US Consumer Price Index is released. The data is expected to show moderation in both the MoM and YoY headline rates of inflation to 0.2% and 8.7% respectively, though the YoY rate of core inflation is seen picking up to 6.1%. Markets are pricing a close to 70% chance that the Fed hikes interest rates by 75 bps in September and investors will be closely scrutinizing how the CPI data influences this pricing.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey data on Friday will also be closely scrutinized, especially the inflation expectations sub-component, given that inflation remains a key market theme. Further declines in consumer inflation expectations could ease concerns at the Fed about elevated inflation becoming embedded.

Chipmakers Weighed by Nvidia’s Revenue Warning, Energy Sector Outperforms Amid Oil Recovery

Chipmaking stocks suffered after a revenue warning from Nvidia, which warned investors that it expects its second-quarter revenue to drop by by 19% versus Q1 amid weakness in gaming. The widely followed Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended the US session 1.6% lower but managed to hold above the 3,000 level.

Healthcare names were mixed but in focus, after the US Senate passed the Inflation Reduction act in a 51 to 50 vote, part of which is aimed at lowering drug prices. The bill also creates a new $4,000 tax credit to encourage the purchase of used electric vehicles and includes further subsidies for their production, thus supporting upside in carmakers such as Tesla and Ford.

Tesla shares got a separate boost from a CNBC report that the largest electric carmaker in the world had signed contracts worth around $5 billion with Indonesian nickel processors. Nickel is a key battery component. Tesla shares subsequently gave most of these gains back amid the mixed tone to trade.

In terms of the S&P 500 GICS sectors, Information Technology lost 0.9% and was subsequently the worst performer. Energy, meanwhile, was the best performer, gaining around 0.5% amid a $2.0 rise in WTI prices back above the $90 level from multi-month lows hit last Friday in the $87.00 area.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Threaten a Breakout

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially fell during trading on Monday, but then turned around a rally again. By the middle of the afternoon, the market had hit the 200 Day EMA, sitting just below the crucial 4200 level. If the market were to break above the 4200 level, it opens up the possibility of a move to the 4300 level. However, keep in mind that Wednesday has the CPI number coming out of the United States, which will give traders a lot to think about when it comes to the inflationary picture.

The Federal Reserve does like to pay close attention to the Core CPI figure, and therefore a lot of people will put quite a bit of credence into this indicator, especially if it comes out hotter than anticipated. With that being the case, I think that we have a couple of days of walking on a thin line. That being said, if we were to turn on break below the hammer that formed on Friday, that could mean that the market is willing to dump stocks ahead of the number, something that I think is much more likely than most people realize.

After all, we do have a recession and there are a lot of concerns when it comes to inflation going forward. That does not necessarily mean that Wall Street has to price the market based upon reality, because quite frankly it’s made a career not doing that. However, we are most certainly an area where you can see a lot of technical resistance, so that all lines up quite nicely.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 09.08.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 30 in Response to Range-Bound BTC

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose for the second time in ten sessions, with a 0.98% gain leaving BTC down 0.55% for the week.
  • A quiet day on the crypto news wires left BTC range bound as investors continued to digest recent US economic indicators and the likely impact on Fed policy.
  • The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100, unmoved by bitcoin’s continued failure to revisit $24,000.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.98%. Partially reversing a 1.56% loss from Saturday, bitcoin ended the week down 0.55% to $23,180. The bullish session marked just the second rise from ten sessions. BTC failed to revisit the $24,000 handle for a seventh session.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $22,854. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,852, BTC rallied to a late high of $23,400.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,206 before easing back to sub-$23,200.

Another quiet day on the crypto news wires left investors to consider recent US economic indicators and Fed monetary policy.

ISM-based service PMI and nonfarm payroll figures may have alleviated immediate concern over a US economic recession. However, the numbers have fueled speculation of a percentage point rate hike.

Investors may have taken comfort in knowing that the Fed will have another round of economic indicators to consider ahead of the September policy decision.

For the week ahead, US inflation figures for July could give investors a more concrete view of what to expect. Another spike in consumer prices could test investor resilience. Therefore, we expect the correlation between the NASDAQ and BTC to remain in effect near term.

NASDAQ correlation
BTC – NASDAQ 080822 Daily Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Holds at 30/100 on Range Bound BTC Session

Today, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100. Bitcoin’s second rise in ten sessions failed to move the Index, with BTC currently experiencing a string of daily losses.

Fear & Greed Index holds steady
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index – 080822

Avoiding sub-30 suggests a possible bitcoin bottom, with bitcoin seeing a modest weekly loss despite five sessions in the red. Nonetheless, the Index remains deep within the Fear zone and well below the most recent high of 42/100.

For the bitcoin bulls, the Index needs to move back towards 40/100 and the neutral zone to deliver BTC support.

On July 30, the Index had stood at 42/100 to briefly border the neutral zone that starts at 46/100.

This week, avoiding a return to sub-30/100 could prove BTC positive and support a breakout from the July high of $24,619.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.22% to $23,230.

BTC finds early support
BTCUSD 080822 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $23,146 pivot to target the Sunday high of $23,400 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,436.

BTC would need a bullish start to the session to support a return to $23,400.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,692 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,237.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,888 into play.

In case of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test the Second Major Support Level at $22,600 and support at $22,500 before any recovery.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $22,053.

BTC pivot level the key
BTCUSD 080822 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $23,079.

The 50-day EMA widened on the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, the signals BTC price positive.

A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a run at R1 to bring R2 and $24,000 into play.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring S1 ($22,888) and the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,854, into play.

EMAs bullish
BTCUSD 080822 4 Hourly Chart

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the June high.

From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

Trends
BTCUSD 080822 Trend Anaysis

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ADA and BNB Lead the Crypto Top Ten

Key Insights:

  • It is a bullish end to the week for the crypto top ten, with Cardano (ADA) and Binance Coin (BNB) leading the way.
  • No cues from the crypto news wires left investors to juggle better than expected US economic indicators and the threat of another 75-basis point interest rate hike.
  • The total market cap increased by $10.12 billion to end the week up $15.25 billion.

It was a bullish Sunday session for the crypto top ten. In another range-bound session, bitcoin (BTC) fell short of the $24,000 handle for the seventh consecutive session. Cardano (ADA) and Binance Coin (BNB) led the way, though the gains were modest.

Recent US economic indicators eased investor jitters over a US economic recession. However, the better-than-expected data has fueled speculation of a one percentage point rate hike in September. In July, the Fed delivered a ‘dovish’ 75-basis point hike, with FOMC members concerned about the impact on the US economy.

ISM-based service PMI and nonfarm payroll figures may have alleviated that concern. However, the Fed will have another round of economic indicators to consider ahead of the September policy decision. The possibility of weaker numbers eased any immediate market stress.

Following the NASDAQ 100’s 0.50% loss on Friday, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 49.5 points this morning, leading to a crypto pullback.

NASDAQ 100 correlation
NASDAQ 100 – Crypto 080822 Daily Chart

The Total Crypto Market Cap Ends the Week on the Rise

On Sunday, the total crypto market cap slid to an early low of $1,055 billion before surging to a late high of $1,090 billion. However, weighed by the NASDAQ 100 Mini, the crypto market cap eased back to end the day at $1,075 billion.

Up by $10.12 billion on Sunday, the total crypto market cap increased by $15.25 billion to register a fifth consecutive weekly rise.

Crypto market cap increased to end the week up $15.25 billion
Crypto Market Cap 080822 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a bullish Sunday session for the crypto top ten.

ADA and BNB rose by 3.33% and 2.44%, respectively, to lead the way, with BTC (+0.98%) and SOL (+1.36%) finding support.

DOT (+0.57), ETH (+0.57%), and XRP (+0.27%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Oasis Labs (ROSE), Loopring (LRC), and Theta Network (THETA) led the way. ROSE jumped by 25%, with LRC and THETA up by 11% and 8%, respectively.

At the other end of the table, Filecoin (FIL) led the way down, with a 7% loss. Lido DAO (LDO) and Synthetix (SNX) fell by 5%, respectively.

Total Crypto Liquidations See NASDAQ 100 Mini Influence

This morning, 24-hour liquidations remained at sub-$100 million, reflecting the bullish Sunday session.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $63 million, up from $59 million on Sunday morning.

Liquidated traders increased over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 27,681 versus 24,204 on Sunday morning.

However, one-hour and four-hour liquidations increased as investors looked ahead to US inflation and responded to the early NASDAQ 100 Mini decline.

Crypto Liquidations remain at sub-$100 million
Total Crypto Liquidations – 080822

According to Coinglass, four-hour liquidations stood at $16.91 million, up from $1.44 million on Sunday morning. One-hour liquidations were up from $0.328 million to $3.89 million (see hourly crypto market cap chart below).

Crypto market cap sees NASDAQ 100 Mini effect
Crypto Market Cap 080822 Hourly Chart

Top 5 Crypto Pairs to Watch This Week: BTC, CHZ, FLOW, OP, and YFI

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) will need a bullish Sunday session to record a third consecutive weekly rise.
  • While market reaction towards US economic indicators and sentiment towards the Fed influence, network news updates were also key drivers.
  • The shift in sentiment towards the US economy was evident in the technical indicators for BTC, CHZ, FLOW, OP, and YFI.

For the week ending August 7, the total crypto market cap is on target for a fifth consecutive weekly rise. The current upswing saw the crypto market end a three-month losing streak in July.

Crypto market cap
Crypto market cap 070822 Weekly Chart

Bearish sentiment early in the week saw the market cap fall to a low of $1,017 billion. Investor fears of a US economic recession weighed on riskier assets ahead of the key US stats of the week.

The ‘dovish’ 75-basis point Fed rate hike and the US economic contraction in the second quarter had delivered support. However, the prospects of a US economic recession led to a six-day losing streak.

Impressive US nonfarm payroll figures changed the mood going into the weekend. In July, nonfarm payrolls surged by 528k, beating a 250k forecast. The NFP figures and better-than-expected service sector PMI numbers eased recession fears. However, bets of a 75-basis point rate hike increased.

Following the best monthly showing since 2020, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 2.15%. The upside was modest, with geopolitics and sentiment towards the Fed limiting the upside.

The correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and the crypto market remained firmly in place, as evidenced below.

NASDAQ correlation
NASDAQ-Crypto 070822 Weekly Chart

Recent crypto network news updates have put several coins back in the spotlight. While Ethereum (ETH) Merge updates remained the key focal point, other updates have highlighted a pickup in activity across the digital asset space.

Chiliz (CHZ), Flow (FLOW), Optimism (OP), and yearn-finance (YFI) are among the coins currently trending and enjoying positive price action.

In addition to further network updates, the US economic calendar will continue to provide direction. On Wednesday, US consumer price inflation numbers will be the key stats of the week. Following better-than-expected US nonfarm payroll numbers, another spike in inflation could fuel bets of a one percentage point rate hike, crypto market negative.

We expect the NASDAQ 100 to continue to drive appetite for BTC and the broader market. However, CHZ, FLOW, OP, and YFI could decouple from BTC and the NASDAQ 100.

Bitcoin (BTC)

This week, Monday through Sunday morning, bitcoin (BTC) was down 1.62% to $22,931. BTC struck a Wednesday high of $23,616 before falling to a Thursday low of $22,418. On Friday, US economic indicators delivered the single upswing of the week. However, BTC failed to revisit the $24,000 handle.

BTC movements reflected the market reaction to the US economic indicators and sentiment towards Fed monetary policy.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reflected investor caution, falling from 42/100 on July 30 to 30/100 on Sunday morning.

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At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.11% to $22,931.

Looking at the trends, a BTC move through the July high of $24,619 to $25,000 would support a run at the June high of $31,956. From $31,956, a move through $35,000 would bring the May high of $40,004.

However, a fall back to sub-$20,000 would give the bears a look at the current year low of $17,601,

BTC under pressure at sub-$23,000
BTCUSD 070822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,828.

The 50-day narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed BTC signals.

A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a break out from the July high of $24,619, with a return to $25,000 to give BTC a look at $30,000.

However, BTC would need to hold above the 100-day EMA to avoid the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,600, and a return to sub-$20,000.

EMAs bullish
BTCUSD 070822 4-Hourly Chart

Chiliz (CHZ)

This week, Monday through Sunday morning, Chiliz (CHZ) was up 18.00% to $0.1442.

A bullish start to the week saw CHZ surge from a low of $0.1214 to a Monday high of $0.1631 before easing back.

Network news updates delivered the Monday breakout session. News of Socios.com investing $100 million to support Barcelona FC’s Web3 goals was the key. The Scoville testnet launch for Chiliz Chain 2.0 added further support.

With the European football season underway, investor interest in CHZ could grow in the coming weeks.

At the time of writing, CHZ was down 1.37% to $.1442.

Looking at the trends, a move through this week’s high of $0.1631 would support a run at the May high of $0.1974. From there, CHZ would have a free run at the March high of $0.3312 to bring $0.40 into view.

A fall back to sub-$0.1250 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.10 and the current-year low of $0.0798.

CHZ finds support
CHZUSD 070822 Daily Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. CHZ sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.1377.

The 50-day pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish CHZ price signals.

Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after testing support at the 50-day EMA on July 27.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.1288, and the current week’s low ($0.1214) into play.

EMAs bullish
CHZUSD 070822 4 Hourly Chart

Flow (FLOW)

This week, Monday through Sunday, Flow (FLOW) was up 32.12% to $2.5500.

A bearish start to the week saw FLOW fall to a Tuesday week low of $1.81. However, network news updates drove FLOW to a Thursday high of $3.77 before easing back.

News of Meta announcing the introduction of digital collectibles to showcase NFTs on Instagram delivered support.

At the time of writing, FLOW was down 0.78% to $2.5500.

Looking at the trends, a move through this week’s high of $3.77 would support a run at the May high of $5.21. From $5.21, FLOW would have a free run at the April high of $8.17 to bring $10.00, last visited in December 2021.

A fall to sub-$2.00 would bring the July low of $1.37 and the June 18 current year low of $1.16 into view.

FLOW in a breakout week
FLOWUSD 070822 Daily chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal on Sunday. FLOW sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $2.2599.

The 50-day pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish FLOW price signals.

Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after the August 4 breakout from the 50-day EMA.

However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $2.0585, and sub-$2.00 into view. An extended sell-off would target the 200-day EMA, currently at $1.9297, and the current August low of $1.81.

EMAs bullish
FLOWUSD 070822 4 Hourly Chart

Optimism (OP)

This week, Monday through Sunday morning, Optimism (OP) was up 22.47% to $1.9400.

A bearish start to the week saw OP fall to a Tuesday low of $1.362 before surging to a Thursday high of $2.238.

News from Aave (AAVE) of the launch of the OptimismFND Liquidity Mining Program delivered OP price support. According to the announcement,

“The program will run for 90 days with a distribution of 5M OP to the Aave Protocol’s Optimism Market users.”

The latest network update followed news of Curve Finance submitting a governance proposal on Optimism for 100 million OP tokens for distribution on the Curve Pool that delivered support. In the previous week, the platform also released Drippie, a new transaction system, which added further support.

At the time of writing, OP was up 2.05% to $1.9400.

Looking at the trends, a return to $2.00 would support a breakout from the week high of $2.238 to target $3.00. However, market sentiment across the broader crypto market will need to remain bullish for OP to break down resistance at $2.50.

A fall back to sub-$1.70 would give the bears a look at sub-$1.50 and the August low of $1.362.

(There is no EMA technical analysis due to the available price points).

OP in a bullish trend
OPUSD 070822 Daily Chart

Yearn.finance (YFI)

This week, yearn.finance (YFI) is up a modest 5.51% to $11,472. YFI surged by 68% in the final week of July.

A mixed start to the week saw YFI give up Monday gains, falling to a Wednesday low of $10,382. Supported by the broader crypto market and US economic indicators, YFI struck a Friday high of $12,323 before easing back.

The planned August launch of veYFI delivered support.

At the time of writing, YFI was down 2.08% to $10,873

Looking at the trends, a breakout from the July high of $14,239 would give YFI a free run at the May high of $18,565. However, YFI needs to return to the $20,000 handle to avoid a reversal. A pullback to sub-$10,000 would see YFI face intense selling pressure.

YFI consolidates the previous week breakout
YFIUSD 070822 Daily Chart

Looking at the 4-hourly chart and the EMAs, the signal was bullish. YFI steered clear of the 50-day EMA, currently at $10,786.

The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA breaking out from the 200-day EMA, both positive YFI indicators.

A further widening of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from the July high of $14,239 to target the May high of $18,565. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$10,000 and the 100-day EMA, currently at $9,692, into view.

EMAs bullish
YFIUSD 070822 4 Hourly Chart