E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – February 12, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading sharply higher at the mid-session on Tuesday, led by strong responses in shares of Caterpillar and Intel. There are two catalysts driving the price action today. The first is the news that congressional negotiators struck a deal in principle that would keep the government open and avoid a shutdown on Friday. The second is improved prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal.

At 1734 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 25361, up 344 or +1.38%.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 25387 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A new main bottom was created at 24862. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 25387 to 24862. The Dow is currently trading on the strong side of its 50% level or pivot at 25125.

The index is also trading on the strong side of a long-term retracement zone at 24890 to 24234. Holding above this zone will put the index in a bullish position. This zone remains the major support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trade reaction to the main top at 25387.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out the main top at 25387 and sustaining the rally will indicate the presence of buyers. The daily chart shows that this price could be the launch site for an eventual rally into the December 3 main top at 26110.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 25387 or sustain a rally over this level will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor 50% level or pivot at 25125. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at 24890. Taking out the main bottom at 24862 will change the main trend to down.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Pressing Major Resistance

The S&P 500 initially pulled back during the trading session on Tuesday but found enough support at the 2700 level to bounce significantly and reach towards the top of the shooting star from the session on Wednesday. This is a very bullish sign, and if we can clear above this area and stay above there for the daily close, it’s very likely that the next move will be to the 2800 level above, which is massive resistance. At this point, I believe that the buyers are becoming more and more aggressive, so short-term pullbacks will probably be bought.

S&P 500 Video 13.02.19

However, if we break down below the 2650 handle, I think it’s likely that we will go looking at the 2600 level as the next question to be answered. At this general, I believe that the market has plenty of momentum underneath it, but I think it’s going to be difficult to get a clean move, because there is so much in the way of geopolitical concerns out there and of course the US dollar had strengthened so much. At this point, I believe that the upside still has the upper hand, but I would not think that it’s going to be obvious to all out there. It will take a certain amount of wherewithal to hang on to long positions at this point, but it certainly looks as if the resiliency should continue. Overall, I think that the market is one that will focus on short-term charts, and nothing more than that. If we can break above the 2800 level, that would be rather extreme and up bullish at that point. A break down below the 2600 level would be extraordinarily negative.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 12, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are surging on Tuesday at the mid-session in reaction to optimism over the start of U.S.-China trade talks and the news that another government shutdown may have been averted. The timing of the deal to avert the government shutdown is particularly important since it lifted a veil of uncertainty that was threatening to cap gains or even drive prices lower over the near-term. The start of the trade talks may be underpinning prices, but the news isn’t strong enough to trigger a breakout to the upside.

At 1639 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2740.25, up 32.00 or +1.19%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at 2737.75. The trend will change to down when sellers take out 2680.75.

The index is also trading on the strong side of a long-term retracement zone at 2711.50 to 2636.00. Holding above this zone will put the index in a bullish position. This zone remains support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the previous top at 2737.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2737.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then we could eventually see a retest of the December 3 main top at 2819.00.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold above 2737.75 will signal the return of sellers. This will also indicate that the selling is stronger than the buying at current price levels. This typically means that the buying was fueled by short-covering and buy stops rather than aggressive buying. In this case, we could see an eventual break back into the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Tech Surges, Markets Optimistic, Shutdown-Deal In Sight

Asian Markets Up On Tech, Japan Leads

Asian equities markets were up on strong gains in tech. The move was driven over growing optimism trade talks between the US and China will bear fruit. The Japanese Nikkei led with a gain of 2.61% with tech in the lead. Shares of Fast Retailing and Renesas Electronics were today’s top performers in Japan. Fast Retailing jumped 3.0% while Renesas Electronics surged more than 16%.

The Shang Hai Composite and Hang Seng were also both trading higher although gains in those markets were more reserved at 0.68% and 0.10%. The Australian ASX closed with a small gain as well, up 0.30%, while the Kospi advanced 0.45%.

In stock news, the Korean-based Samsung and SK Hynix were among today’s top performers with gains greater than 2.30%. Both indices are key to the global tech supply chain and sensitive to trade-related news.  LG Electronics, another heavy-weight in tech, led the market with an advance of 3.75%.

Europe Up On Rising Optimism

European indices were mostly higher in midday trading as a rising wave of optimism supported equities prices. The German Dax was in the lead with a gain near 1.10% with the CAC not far behind. The UK FTSE 100 was trading near the flat line despite reassuring news on Brexit.

Theresa May has returned from her trip to Brussels and says Parliament will be able to vote on the Brexit deal by February 26th. In the meantime, she will be working hard with the EU on rewording key issues so they are more palatable for UK lawmakers.

In stock news, shares of Michelin jumped more than 10% after the company issued positive guidance for 2019. Michelin now joins a host of international businesses able to profit despite depressed global trade, evidence global economic expansion is still assured for this year. Shares of Randstad, a Dutch-based staffing company, reported better than expected 4th quarter earnings and says a slowdown in hiring seen at the end of last year has not carried into 2019.

Government Shutdown Averted, Maybe

The Congressional bi-partisan commission on spending and immigration has reached a deal that would avoid a government shutdown. The deal includes money, $1.4 billion, for “physical barriers along the border” but not a wall. The question now is if President Trump will sign the bill or if he’ll push for more money or firmer wording.

US indices were higher on the news although the gains were capped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the market with a gain near 0.80% but the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite and broad-market S&P 500 were not far behind. While the shutdown news is good the bill isn’t signed yet and there are still trade-related issued at hand. The meeting between Mnuchin, Lighthizer and China’s top trade officials is expected to lead to another step in the process but there is no guarantee it will happen.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX to Trade Positive on Improved Risk Appetite

Optimism surrounding Sino-U.S. trade talks on weekend headlines inspired a fresh wave of risk-on trading activity in European markets which had great influence on Frankfurt equity markets as well. Sino-U.S. trade war is an issue that has had a great impact on the performance of the global equity market. An escalation of which is expected to drag the growth rate of the global economy further down the scale. However, the possibility of a trade deal between two parties following the upcoming meeting and the month-end meeting between Presidents of two nations is supporting the market bulls to great extent and this lead to all major European equities closing in green during yesterday’s trading session.

Optimism Surrounding the Sino-U.S. Trade Deal Continues To Underpin Market Bulls

German equities saw positive price action across its major stocks and futures yesterday. Out of total 778 stocks trading in the exchange, 530 stocks closed in green while 75 closed unchanged at end of trading session. As per data on the performance of sectoral indices from Frankfurt stock exchange, all sectoral indices closed positive for the day and stocks from bank, food & beverage and transport & logistic sectors were the top gainers of the day with all three indices seeing more than 2% increase in value. Further, all three major German indices also saw a sharp upside move and DAX, MDAX & TECDAX indices closed for the day with 0.99%, 1.17% & 1.49% increase in value respectively.

Asian equity markets today saw positive price action as optimism surrounding upcoming Sino-U.S. trade talks remain high in the broad market. Further news that another U.S. government shutdown in unlikely as U.S. lawmakers have managed to reach a deal on border security funding also supported positive price action and underpinned market bulls resulting in major Asian indices trading in Green. The German equity market is highly susceptible to positive price action in U.S. Wall Street and likely to trade positive today as the hawkish signal from the Asian market further adds to investors risk appetite. DAX futures trading in the international market was up by more than 0.60% ahead of the Frankfurt market opening suggesting that German equities and DAX index are likely to see positive price action today.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

S&P 500 Price Forecast – stock markets flat during Monday session

The S&P 500 and it’s done nothing during the trading session on Monday as we continue to dance around the 2700 level waiting for some type of conclusion to the US/China trade relations. Quite frankly, I don’t think that anything happens other than possibly some type of “kick the can down the road” solution. If that’s the case that’ll be good for the markets, but this looks like a market that’s running into a massive resistance here, so I would not be surprised at all to see a pullback.

The 2600 level underneath should be massively supportive, and if we were to break down below there I think the market really could come apart. I believe that the market is at a major precipice right now, and we could see some type of violent move. If we get a break above the Friday candlestick, then we could go looking towards the 2800 level. Otherwise, I would anticipate that this is a market that continues to struggle to find direction, and it probably won’t be until towards the end of the week that we get some clarity. Headlines will move the market as Robo traders continue to destroy flow in the financial markets. If we can break down below the 20 day EMA, that’s probably your first sign that we are going to go lower. Otherwise, if we break above that move to the 2800 level, then we could continue a longer-term move. At this point though, I don’t expect to see it.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – February 11, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the opening, but giving back some of its earlier gains. The early rally was fueled by optimism over U.S.-China trade negotiations that are expected to begin later this week. Investors are hoping the two economic powerhouses will strike a deal to end the ongoing trade dispute. Pessimism over another possible government shutdown may have stopped the rally, while dueling an intraday sell-off.

At 15:07 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 6929.75, up 9.00 or +0.13%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 7038.75 on February 6. A trade through this top will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A new minor bottom was formed at 6841.00. A trade through this level will change the minor trend to down. This will reaffirm the shift in momentum.

The short-term range is 7038.75 to 6841.00. Its retracement zone at 6939.75 to 6963.25 is the first upside target. Trader reaction to this zone will determine if the market moves higher, or if a secondary lower top forms.

The main range is 6592.25 to 7038.75. Its retracement zone at 6815.50 to 6762.75 is the nearest downside target.

The major retracement zone is 6792.75 to 6653.75. Inside this zone is the main 50% level at 6792.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 6939.75 and 6963.25.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above 6939.75 will indicate the presence of buyers, but overtaking 6925.00 will likely trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major targets coming in at 7022.5 and 7038.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6938.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the minor bottom at 6841.00. If the selling is strong enough to take out this minor bottom then look for the move to extend into a series of retracement levels at 6815.50, 6792.75 and 6762.75. Buyers are likely to come in on a test of these levels, dampening the selling pressure.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 11, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The rally is being fueled by optimism that the U.S. and China will strike a trade deal to end the ongoing trade dispute. This is a reversal from last week’s negative news about the trade negotiations, and the meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. These events prompted investors to reduce exposure in higher risk investments.

At 14:11 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2715.50, up 9.25 or +0.34%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2737.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 2612.50 will change the main trend to down. Taking out 2737.75 will also make 2680.75 a new higher swing bottom.

The minor trend is also up. A new higher minor bottom was formed at 2680.75. Taking out this bottom will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The major retracement zone that is controlling the near-term direction of the index is 2636.00 to 2711.50.

The main range is 2612.50 to 2737.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 2675.00 is new support.

The short-term range is 2737.75 to 2680.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 2709.25 forms price cluster with the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the retracement levels at 2711.50 and 2709.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2711.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then traders may take a run at 2737.75. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 2819.00 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2709.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible break into the minor bottom at 2680.75, followed by the support cluster formed by the minor bottom at 2680.75 and the main 50% level at 2675.00. She the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this area.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. 

Asian Mixed In Post-Holiday Trading, European Stocks Move Higher, Trade Talks Still In Focus

China Moves Higher On The First Trading Day Of The Year Of The Pig

Asian markets were mixed in Monday trading as markets wake up from last week’s Lunar New Year Holiday. Chinese markets led with gains greater than 1.25% and were followed by a less-robust 0.71% for the Hong Kong Heng Seng. The Australian ASX and Korean Kospi both posted moved less than 0.20% although one was up (the Kospi) and one was down (the ASX). Japan was closed for their Founder’s Day Celebration marking the anniversary of Japan as a nation.

In stock news, shares of Hong Kong-listed Tencent rose nearly 2.0% in Monday trading as tech led gains.

Market focus this week will be on the US/China trade talks scheduled for later this week. The talks are in Beijing and follow-up on a meeting held two weeks ago in Washington. The US is sending Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin and Lead Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer to the latest round of talks in effort to smooth out hurdles to reaching a trade deal. Last week US officials let it be known there was no Trump/Xi meeting on the table yet.

European Markets Move Higher On Trade Optimism

European indices moved higher in early Monday trading despite the cautionary tone from Washington. Traders in the region believe China and the US are on course to reach a trade deal even if the timing remains uncertain. Both nations are at risk of economic recession if a deal is not reached so incentivized to make concessions.

The French CAC led the gains with an advance of 1.10% as banks move solidly higher throughout the region. The DAX posted the second-largest advance in midmorning, about 1.0%, while the UK FTSE 100 came in at a slightly tepid 0.75%. Banks across the EU got a boost from good news in Italy. The EU just issued new capital requirements for the Italian banks and the news is good. Shares of most banks were up at least 1.0% with those in Italy advancing the most.

US Futures Move Higher

US futures move higher, pointing to a positive opening for US markets, on trade optimism despite a growing chance there will be another government shutdown. A key US Senator, Richard Shelby, has told reporters that the talks are stalled on immigration issues, the very issues that led to the longest shutdown in US history.

In trade news, there is not a lot of expectation on this week’s meeting, not anymore, but the market is still looking for positive development. Last week’s remarks from Larry Kudlow put the market back in its place but did not alter the outlook that trade relations are on the upswing.

In earnings news, more than 66% of the S&P 500 have reported so far for the fourth quarter and the results are better than expected. The problem is the outlook for earnings growth continues to suffer under the weight of trade tariffs and that will keep stocks under pressure in the near-term. There is not much data due out this week and what there is may be delayed because of the last government shutdown.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – February 11, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening, reversing earlier weakness. The rebound is being attributed to optimism over the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China. Investors are also hoping for signs of progress on Brexit. A 1-percent bounce in Chinese shares was also behind the rally. Chinese market were closed due to the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

At 11:33 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 25150, up 69 or +0.27%.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the downside last week. A trade through 25387 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this occurs then 24862 will become the new main bottom.

The short-term range is 25387 to 24862. Its 50% level or pivot at 25125 is controlling the direction of the index today.

On the downside, retracement level support comes in at 24890, 24802 and 24663.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 25125.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25125 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at 25387. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 26110 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25125 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move can generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at 24890. This is followed by the minor bottom at 24862 and the short-term 50% level at 24802.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX To Trade Range Bound On Mixed Cues

European markets on Friday saw sharp declines on all its major indices and stocks owing to the high level of bearish sentiment in the broad market. Disappointing macro data outcome from Germany and the European central bank’s reduction of growth forecast for 2019 revived concerns of a slowdown in European economic activity. This caused German 10-year government bond yields to decline and led to a widening of spread difference between major global counterparts such as Italian and American 10-year government bond yields leading to market fundamentals taking a dovish turn and influencing bearish investor sentiment.

Dovish Momentum From Friday Is Likely To Inspire  Dovish Price Action

This caused both EURO and major stocks/indices in all European markets to take a bearish nosedive during Friday’s market hours. German equity market on Friday closed with a sharp decline owing to prevalent risk-averse trading activity. Out of total 778 stocks trading in the exchange, 513 stocks closed in red while 84 closed unchanged at end of trading session. As per data on the performance of sectoral indices from Frankfurt stock exchange, stocks from Automobile, basic resources, and technology sector saw most declines with all sectoral indices closing in red for the week. All three major indices from Frankfurt exchange closed in red with DAX, MDAX & TECDAX down by 1.05%, 1.21% & 2.07% on the day.

Asian markets today opened on a dovish note with all major indices and stock trading in red on dovish cues from US Wall Street. Further, weekend headlines from the US indicated that Sino-U.S. trade talks are set to resume later this week, which caused tensions surrounding trade talks to remain high as the deadline is nearing by with no signs of a trade deal between the two nations. Given investors concerns of an economic slowdown in the Euro area and declining Treasury Yields, the European market is likely to see dovish investor sentiment. However, DAX futures trading in the international market were positive ahead of the European market opening. Mixed cues from the international market suggest DAX is likely to trade range bound during today’s market hours with directional cues likely to be inspired by headlines driven momentum.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trading Inside Weekly Retracement Zone at 6792.75 to 7022.25

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower early Monday. Investors are reacting to the mixed to lower trade in Asia. Traders are watching out for developments on the U.S.-China trade situation, as negotiations are set to continue in Beijing later this week after mainland Chinese markets were closed last week due to the Lunar New Year holidays.

At 03:21 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading at 6906.50, down 10.25 or -0.15%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Weekly March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom the week-ending December 28. A trade through 7169.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 5820.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

This week is the seventh week up from the last main bottom, which puts the index inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The main range is 7765.00 to 5820.50. Its retracement zone at .6792.75 to 7022.25 is controlling the near-term direction of the market. Currently, the index is trading inside this zone.

Weekly Technical Forecast

The index is currently sitting in the middle of the 6792.75 to 7022.25 retracement zone.

Bullish Scenario

If buyers take control then look for a potential rally into the Fibonacci level at 7022.25, followed closely by last week’s high at 7038.75. Taking out this level could trigger a surge into the downtrending Gann angle at 7157.00. This is followed closely by the main top at 7169.00.

Taking out 7169.00 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle coming in at 7461.00.

Bearish Scenario

If sellers take change then look for break into the main 50% level at 6792.75. This is followed closely by a steep uptrending Gann angle at 6716.50. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers on the first test of this angle.

Look for an acceleration to the downside if 6716.50 fails as support. This could trigger a break into another downtrending Gann angle at 6549.00. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 6268.50.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below. 

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weekly Failure at 2711.50 Could Trigger Steep Break into 2636.00

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures opened the week flat after posting a two-sided trade last week. Helping to support the index early in the week was optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and better-than-expected earnings. However, investors began to book profits and shed risky positions after negative news broke about U.S.-China trade negotiations. After hitting its highest level since December 4, the index finish only slightly better for the week.

At 01:49 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2701.00, down 5.25 or 0.19%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Weekly March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the closing price reversal bottom was formed during the week-ending December 28.

This week is the seventh week up from the last main bottom. This puts the index inside the window of time for a potentially bearish weekly closing price reversal top. If formed and confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The main range is 2955.50 to 2316.75. Its retracement zone at 2636.00 to 2711.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. The index is currently trading inside this zone.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2706.25 and Monday’s early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2711.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is last week’s high at 2737.75. Taking out this level could trigger a rally into the steep uptrending Gann angle at 2764.75.

Overtaking 2764.75 will put the index in a bullish position. This could extend the rally into the downtrending Gann angle at 2787.50.

Overcoming 2787.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with additional targets a pair of minor tops at 2819.00 and 2824.50. These are followed by another downtrending Gann angle at 2871.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2711.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for a potential spike into the main 50% level at 2636.00, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at 2619.50.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at 2619.50 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 2540.75.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Market Slams into Overhead Resistance

The S&P 500 has tried to rally during the week, breaking above a downtrend line. However, we have turned right back around to form a massive shooting star the weekly chart, which of course is a very negative sign. This doesn’t silly me that were going to break down right away, but it certainly is a bit concerning. The lack of volume on the move higher is something to be concerned about. I think at this point, you should also pay attention to the fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has shown itself to be important as well, so at this point I think that it’s likely that a break below the bottom of the candle stick should kick off another move lower.

S&P 500 Video 11.02.19

The catalyst are varied, not the least of which will be the US/Chinese trade issues, but I think also we have to worry about a government shutdown which seems all but certain. Quite frankly, with all of these political concerns, it’s not a surprise that the market would struggle to overtake the massive bearish candle stick that kicked off the major selloff recently. Because of this, I believe that we are more than likely going to see lower rather than higher pricing. However, if we were to turn on a break above the top of the shooting star for the week, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign and send this market looking towards the 2800 level rather quickly as it would be a breach of major selling pressure. Either way, buckle up it’s about to get volatile.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets run into Resistance Again

The S&P 500 pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of trouble. At this point, we have pulled back a bit and what is most important to pay attention to is the fact that the shooting star from the weekly chart has happened right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. At this point, I do think that we go lower if the political situation doesn’t get better. We are almost assured of a government shutdown rather soon, and of course the US/China trade relations aren’t going anywhere. If that’s going to be the case, stock markets are probably going to take it on the chin.

S&P 500 Video 11.02.19

I would also point out just how low the volume has been on the way out. There was a much more volume attic move to the downside, so you should pay attention to that. If we make a fresh, new high, then we can go higher because it is a break of a shooting star which is a very bullish sign and could send this market looking towards the 2800 level. If we do fall from here, then I think we could go down to the 2600 level, possibly even the 2500 level after that. Overall, I think we are at a major inflection point, so we are about to see the markets make a decision.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets sideways on Friday

Silver markets have gapped higher during the trading session on Friday, and then went back and forth in a relatively wild range. I think at this point we are looking at major resistance above at the $16 level, so it makes sense that on Friday traders would be a bit skittish about putting a lot of money into the market. However, it’s obvious that we have support just below at the 20 day EMA, pictured in green on the chart.

SILVER Video 11.02.19

Looking at this chart, I think pullbacks should be thought of as value, but if we were to break down below the 200 day EMA, the black moving average, then I think we may find quite a bit of trouble. This would more than likely coincide with a strengthening US dollar. All things being equal, pay attention to the EUR/USD pair, or the US Dollar Index to give you an idea of how the greenback works when it comes to the silver market. As the greenback falls, that should help silver overall as a softening Federal Reserve should continue to propel precious metals in general. That being said, there is a lot of noise and resistance just above, so a pullback makes quite a bit of sense. With this, I’m looking for value on these pullbacks and signs of support.

At this point, I like the idea of buying these dips and building up a position slowly if you are not already fully into the position. At this point, it looks as if the buyers are trying to take over, but you have a clear exit if the black EMA gets cross.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Downside Targets are 6815.50 and 6792.75

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower at the mid-session. The selling pressure is being driven by renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade negotiations and the slowing global economy. Investors are dumping risky assets because of uncertainty over the timing of a U.S.-China trade deal. Additionally, central banks have been lowering their outlooks for their respective economies, encouraging investors to book profits and move money into safe-haven assets.

At 1640 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 6857.00, down 50.50 or -0.71%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on February 6.

A trade through 7038.75 will negate the reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 6592.25.

The major retracement zone is 6792.75 to 7022.25. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. Currently, the index is trading inside this zone, neutralizing the rally.

The main range is 6592.25 to 7038.75. Its retracement zone is 6815.50 to 6762.75. Trading inside this zone is the major 50% level at 6792.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Bearish Scenario

If the downside momentum continues then look for sellers to drive the index into the minor 50% level at 6815.50. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the major 50% level at 6792.75, followed by the major Fibonacci level at 6762.75. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to step in on a test of any of these levels.

Bullish Scenario

The new short-term range is 7038.75 to 6841.00. If this range remains intact then look for a potential retracement into 6940.00.

Weekly Closing Price Reversal Top

A close under 6877.75 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top on the weekly chart. If confirmed next week, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week counter-trend break.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Close Under 24996 Forms Bearish Weekly Closing Price Reversal Top

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are breaking sharply for a second day in reaction to renewed concerns over U.S.-China trade negotiations as well as slowing global economic growth. Fear is creeping into the markets with many investors seeking shelter in safe-haven assets. Buyers are scare as investors take on more defensive positions.

At 16:16 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 24908, down 223 or -0.88%.

A close under 24996 forms a weekly closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A new main top was formed at 25387. A trade through this level will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. It changed to down earlier in the session when sellers took out 24924. This shifted momentum to the downside. The next minor bottom targets are 24284 and 24216.

The major retracement zone is 24890 to 24234. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The minor range is 24216 to 25387. Its retracement zone at 24802 to 24663 is the first downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 24890.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 24890 will indicate the return of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then we could see a retracement into 25129.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24890 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a fast break into the short-term 50% level at 24802. If this fails then look for the selling pressure to extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 24663.

The Fib level at 24663 is the most important level on the charts. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major targets coming in at 24284, 24234 and 24216.

Closing Below 2700 for S&P500 may Trigger new Selloff

At the end of the week, the demand for protective assets has increased sharply. The yield on long-term Japan and Germany bonds fell to two-year lows, and the US long-term bonds yield again decreases.

Separately, stock markets are under serious pressure. The Japanese Nikkei lost almost 3% in two days, which knocked him out of the growth corridor since December. Trump’s message that he does not plan a new meeting with the president of China before March 1, that is, before the deadline in trade negotiations, could have become a formal reason. Our fears are confirmed that we should not wait for breakthroughs in the negotiations. This is bad news for markets that are no longer hoping for positive news following the trip of the Treasury Secretary and US Trade Representative to China.

From the side of technical analysis, the markets have come to an interesting point. The S&P500 index turned to decline after approaching the 200-day moving average, which should be considered as a manifestation of market participants’ uncertainty in the future prospects. Reversal of the last two days calls into question the growth trend from the end of the year. If at the end of Friday the index will fail to close above 2,700, we can talk about the return of the tendency to decline. The Japanese Nikkei 225 feels even worse, turning sharply into decline this week.

The dollar index will have to pass its own stability test. Earlier this year, USDX twice turned to decline from around 96.30, where it is now. The first decline was 1.8%, and the second – 1.5%. A smaller second correction looks like a display of dollar bulls confidence. The development of growth above 96.3 will open the way for the dollar index to 97.50 – the peak levels of December, and a breakthrough of this resistance may increase purchases up to levels of 103.7 – the multi-year highs reached in early 2017.

This article was written by FxPro

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 8, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening, but inside yesterday’s range. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The catalyst behind the selling pressure is increasing worries about a broadening global economic slowdown. Uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations is also fueling the selling pressure.

At 14:20 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2690.75, down 13.25 or -0.49%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2737.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 2612.50.

The index is also trading lower for the week. A close under 2704.25 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The index is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at 2636.00 to 2711.50. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index. Trading inside the zone will neutralize the uptrend.

The short-term range is 2612.50 to 2737.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 2675.00 is the next downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of this level. Look for a technical bounce.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2711.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 2675.00. Watch for buyers on the initial test of this level.

Taking out 2675.00 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the major 50% level at 2636.00.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 2711.50 will indicate the return of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 2737.75.

Weekly Closing Price Reversal Top

Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 2704.25 all session. This is last week’s close. Bullish traders will try to overtake this level in an effort to defend the uptrend. A close under this level could set up the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.