E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Headed for 2602.75 Unless Buyers Overtake 2701.75

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures broke sharply early Thursday after a steady to better opening. Although buyers are trying to claw back earlier losses, the index remains in a weak position ahead of the cash market opening.

The blame for the break can be placed on concerns over U.S.-Chinese trade dispute negotiations. Triggering the latest round of worries was the arrest of the CFO of Huawei, a Chinese corporation.

According to the Eurasia Group, “The arrest and extradition request by the US government represents a new and major escalation in what has been a series of U.S. efforts to hold Chinese companies accountable for violations of U.S. law, some dating back years.”

At 0924 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2668.50, down 32.25 or -1.22%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2626.00 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 2814.00.

The index is also trading on the weak side of a series of major retracement levels, putting it in a bearish position. These levels at 2701.75, 2748.50, 2775.00 and 2815.50 are resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2668.50, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 2701.75.

Bullish Scenario

In order to generate any upside momentum, buyers are going to have to drive the index back over 2701.75. If the volume increases on the move then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 50% level at 2748.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2701.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under this level with the nearest targets the November 23 main bottom at 2626.00 and the May 3 main bottom at 2602.75.

Selling pressure could pick up under 2602.75 with the April 2 bottom at 2562.50 and the February 9 bottom at 2550.00 the next targets.

The market could go into a freefall unless it recaptures 2701.75.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Plenty of Room to Downside Under 24824

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. Although the blue chip average opened higher, it plunged shortly after the opening, taking out Tuesday’s low and a pair of Fibonacci levels in the process. The spike to the downside was caused by the arrest of the CFO of Huawei, a Chinese corporation, by Canadian authorities. Traders are saying the arrest raises concerns over U.S.-China trade negotiations.

At 0850 GMT, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 24739, down 307 or -1.23%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower with the formation of the secondary lower top at 26088. A trade through 24246 will change the main trend to down. A move through 26088 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The Dow is also trading below a series of retracement levels, which is helping to give it a downside bias. This levels are new resistance. They include a pair of Fibonacci levels at 24824 and 24950 and a pair of 50% levels at 25167 to 25233.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at 24739, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 24824.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and holding above 24824 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of 24950. A move over this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with targets at 25167 to 25233.

The daily chart starts to open up to the upside over 25233 with the retracement zone at 25526 to 25866 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24824 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough momentum then look for an acceleration to the downside. The next major target is the main bottom at 24246, followed by additional main bottoms at 24086 and 24000.

The trigger point for another acceleration to the downside is 24000. In this case, 23580 and 23500 will become the primary downside targets.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Choppy, Two-Sided Trade Between 6822.75 and 6609.00

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower during the pre-market session. After being closed on Wednesday, sellers picked up where they left off on Tuesday, driving the index to its lowest level since November 27.

The market is being pressured by an inverted Treasury yield curve, which indicates expectations of weak future U.S. economic growth. Furthermore, concerns over U.S.-China relations rose early in the session following the arrest of the CFO of Chinese company Huawei.

At 0810 GMT, December NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 6713.00, down 90.25 or -1.33%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 7139.00. A trade through 6449.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The market is currently trading inside a major retracement zone bounded by 6822.75 to 6609.00. It is also straddling a minor retracement zone at 6794.25 to 6713.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at 6713.00, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 6713.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6713.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into a pair of 50% levels at 6794.25 and 6822.75.

Taking out 6822.75 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6713.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into 6609.00. If this price level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 6449.50, followed closely by the February 8 bottom at 6385.25.

Basically, look for a possible choppy, two-sided trade between 6794.25 and 6713.00. Watch for accelerations under 6609.00 and over 6822.75.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX To Trade Bearish For Third Consecutive Trading Session

Germany equities were lower at the close on Wednesday, as losses in the Technology, Insurance and Software sectors propelled shares lower. At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX declined 1.19%, while the MDAX index declined 0.93%, and the TecDAX index declined 1.67%. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by 536 to 169 and 70 ended unchanged on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was up 9.75% to 20.15. European markets closed in red yesterday despite positive macro data and favorable Italian budget negotiation related headlines owing to cautious investor stance in response to bearish rout in global equity markets. U.S. stock futures and Asian shares tumbled on early market hours today after Canadian authorities arrested a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei for extradition to the United States, feeding fears of a fresh flare-up in tensions between the two superpowers.

Risk Averse Investor Sentiment Was Further Aggravated Owing to Arrest of Huawei’s Chief Executive

The news came as Washington and Beijing begin three months of negotiations aimed at de-escalating their bruising trade war, which is adding to lingering investor jitters over higher U.S. interest rates and other risks to global economic growth. Canadian authorities said they had arrested Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver, where she is facing extradition to the United States on charge of violations of U.S. sanctions. The arrest heightened the sense of dread already prevalent in market owing to global economic slowdown woes and two consecutive sessions of bearish rout in equities as this could complicate trade related talks between China & USA inspiring bearish price action across key Asian equities. Huawei is one of the world’s largest makers of smartphones and telecommunications network equipment and latest news has initiated a sharp slump in technology shares of companies involved in semi conductor business as pressure and urging of US has caused various telecom operators from Britain, Australia and New Zealand to reject Huawei’s products citing security concerns.

Recent macro data from Euro zone as well as Germany paint a positive picture of economic conditions and business progress in German market. Both German Composite & Services PMI saw better than expected data and the scenario is further boosted by declining spread difference between IT-DE government bonds over positive comments from Italy’s deputy PM Luigi Di Maio on budget negotiations which indicates a solid fundamental support for Germany economy. While bearish rout in global equities over last two days have inspired a risk averse investor sentiment in financial market resulting in bearish price action across key equity markets downside could be limited considerably over positive German economic climate. DAX futures trading in international market is down by 1.44% on the day ahead of European market hours suggesting possibility of range bound price action in German equities with bearish bias.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – important technical levels ahead

During the trading session on Tuesday, there was a massive amount of damage done to the S&P 500. We slammed into the 2700 level, only to stop dead in our tracks. When you look at the chart, there is a previous downtrend line that had been broken now acting as resistance in the futures market at 2718. Ultimately, there’s also the 50 day EMA which is at the 2750 handle, so I think that if we do get some type of rally from here, it’s that area that will cause a lot of problems. While the balance could be thought of as somewhat encouraging, keep in mind that the underlying index was not open so this probably was a bit of position squaring.

S&P 500 Video 06.12.18

If we were to break down below the 2700 level, I think that opens the door to the 2630 level underneath, the most recent low. If we break above the 50 day EMA, then we could go back towards the highs. Quite frankly, I don’t see that happening unless we get a good jobs figure. The other scenario of course would be a bit more clarity with the US/China trade war, namely and a good sense. However, clarity is something that we haven’t had much in the way recently, so I think that the market would love to hear some of that.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX To Trade With Bearish Bias On Widespread Fears of Global Economic Slowdown

Germany equities were lower at the close on Tuesday, as losses in the Transportation & Logistics, Media and Construction sectors propelled shares lower. At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX fell 1.14%, while the MDAX index declined 1.58%, and the TecDAX index lost 1.06%. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by 493 to 224 and 60 ended unchanged on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was up 1.16% to 18.36. Major equities across the globe closed in red yesterday on fears of global economic slowdown and waning influence from weekend headlines on Sino-U.S. trade truce. European market was also saw bearish influence from Brexit woes and protests in France over fuel tax hikes.

Major Equities Trade in Red Amid Fears of Global Economic Slowdown

Global stocks sank and the dollar fell on Tuesday as a flattening Treasury yield curve sparked recession warnings, while optimism that the U.S. and China would quickly resolve their trade dispute dwindled. Benchmark Treasury 10-year yield fell to its lowest point since mid-September. The spread between the 10-year yields over its two-year counterpart also shrank to the smallest since the start of the financial crisis in January 2008, signaling to some investors an approaching U.S. economic slowdown. This move triggered a bearish rout in US Wall Street with Dow Jones Index losing nearly 700 points. All major Asian indices have declined over 0.50% ahead of European market hours.

While France PM Philippe suspended fuel tax hike and few other energy and emission related hikes for next six months to give people more time to get adjusted new to new rules and regulations, fears of global economic slowdown is high in market which has resulted in investors moving funds from risky assets to safe haven instruments. DAX Futures trading in international market ahead of European market hours was up by 0.34% on the day despite a highly prevalent bearish investor sentiment. DAX index may open positive but is likely to trade with bearish bias gripped by wide spread fear of economic slowdown and influence from international markets.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 6822.75, Weakens Under 6794.25

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The biggest decline since the October sell-off was fueled by investors worried about an inverted Treasury market which may be signaling a possible economic slowdown. Lingering concerns about U.S.-China trade relations also added to jitters on Wall Street. Technology stocks fell back into correction territory, led by steep declines in shares of tech heavyweights Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook.

On Tuesday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 6803.25, down 255.00 or -3.75%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 I
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 I

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 7231.00 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a further rally into 7368.50. A move through 6449.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could lead to a test of the February 8 main bottom at 7385.25.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the upside momentum. A new minor top was formed at 7139.00.

On the downside, the major retracement zone is 6822.75 to 6609.00. Inside this area is a short-term retracement zone at 6794.25 to 6712.75.

On the upside, the major retracement zone is 7154.75 to 7290.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s close at 2803.25, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% support cluster at 6822.75 to 6794.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6822.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then we could possibly see a rally back to 7139.00 and 7154.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6794.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration into the short-term Fibonacci level at 6712.75. If this price level fails then the selling is likely to extend into the major Fibonacci level at 6609.00. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into the main bottom at 6449.50, followed by the February 8 main bottom at 6385.25.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing Major Fibonacci Level at 2701.75

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished sharply lower on Tuesday as investors raised concerns over the trade dispute truce between the United States and China, and an inverted Treasury market which could be an indication of a future economic slowdown.

Volume was well above average with the banking sector suffering the worst of the selling pressure. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Wednesday out of respect for former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral.

On Tuesday, the December E-mini S&P 500 Index settled at 2701.75, down 89.00 or -3.29%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2626.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could trigger a further decline into main bottoms at 2603.00 and 2602.75. The main trend will change to up on a move through 2818.00. This is followed by another main top at 2824.25. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The major retracement zone is 2748.50 to 2701.75. The short-term retracement zone is 2775.00 to 2815.50. This makes 2701.75 support and 2748.50, 2775.00 and 2815.50 resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s close at 2701.75, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index when it opens on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 2701.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2701.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the main 50% level at 2748.50. This is followed by the short-term 50% level at 2775.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2701.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart indicates the market is wide open to the downside with the next major targets coming in at 2626.00, followed by 2603.00 and 2602.75.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Strengthens Over 25233, Weakens Under 25167

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures plunged on Tuesday as investors expressed concerns over the impact of the trade dispute truce between the United States and China, and a Treasury rate inversion signaled a possible economic slowdown. In the cash market, the Dow posted its worst day since October 10. At its low of the day, the benchmark Dow had fallen more than 800 points.

On Tuesday, the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 25046, down 800 or -3.19%.

The U.S. stock market will be closed Wednesday out of respect for former President George H.W. Bush’s funeral.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the market has been rangebound since November 8. Tuesday’s sell-off, while dramatic, was only a normal retracement of the current six-day rally. A trade through 26088 will be a sign of strength, but a trade through 26268 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 24246, followed by another bottom at 24086.

The minor trend is also up. A new minor top was formed at 26088. A trade through this level will signal a resumption of the minor trend.

The market closed inside the main retracement zone at 25233 to 24824. The short-term retracement zone is 25167 to 24950.

On the upside, the retracement zone resistance is 25526 to 25866.

The tightest price cluster is 25167 to 25233. Another price cluster is 24950 to 24824.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Tuesday’s close at 25160 and the daily swing chart, the direction of the market when trading resumes on Thursday will likely be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 25233 to 25167.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25233 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see the rally extend into the major 50% level at 25526. This is followed by the major Fibonacci level at 25866.

Overcoming 25866 will put the Dow in a position to continue the rally with the minor top at 26088 and the main top at 26268 the next likely targets.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25167 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further decline into a short-term Fibonacci level at 24950, followed by a long-term Fibonacci level at 24824.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 24824 with the next major targets coming in at 24246, 24086 and 24000.

S&P 500 Forecast – stock markets giveback on Tuesday

The S&P 500 fell during the day on Tuesday, filling the gap from the weekend, and we are approaching the 50 day EMA. That of course makes this a very interesting place to be, and although the CFD markets will be open during the day on Wednesday, the United States won’t have stock markets trading due to the day of remembrance for former President George HW Bush. That being the case, I think that the CFD markets will be able to be traded, but when I look at the overall picture, there are some other things that I can pay attention to.

S&P 500 Video 05.12.18

I believe at this point, the 2750 level is very crucial, and if we can stay above there then it’s probably only a matter of time before we rally. However, if we break down through that level, I think that we would probably see an escalation of the downside, perhaps reaching towards the lows again which is roughly 2640. In general, I think that the market is at the precipice of making some type of decision, but we need to be patient enough to let the market make that decision. Because of this, stay out of the market, even if it is the CFD market during the day on Wednesday, and let the underlying asset determine where we go next. If we can hold 2750 then I think we make a serious run at the highs again. If we don’t, then it’s time to start selling. Let the daily close dictate where you put your money.

DAX Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX To Trade Bearish On Cues From International Market

Germany equities were higher at the close on Monday, as gains in the Technology, Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare and Food & Beverages sectors propelled shares higher. At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX gained 1.85%, while the MDAX index gained 1.34%, and the TecDAX index gained 2.13%. Advancing stocks outnumbered falling ones by 513 to 207 and 61 ended unchanged on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was down 7.73% to 18.15. German equities traded positive across the day supported by increased risk appetite and positive investor’s sentiment over headlines from weekend on Sino-U.S. trade truce.

Positive Cues From News of Sino-U.S. Trade Truce Evaporated

Asian shares fell on Tuesday as a relief rally petered out amid rising doubts over whether China and the United States will be able to resolve trade differences before a 90-day deadline. The temporary freeze on further hostilities in the trade war between the United States and China had sparked a global rally in equity markets on Monday, but even before the trading day ended, major U.S. indices pulled back from intraday highs as investors pondered unresolved issues between the two countries.Further, an inverted U.S. yield curve also raised concerns about a possible recession. Key Asian indices NIKKEI 225, FTSE STI, HANG SENG & NIFTY 50 all traded in red in late Asian market hours.

Investors have become disillusioned with trade truce between China & U.S. over lack of detail as no further updates were released and key issues such as forced technology transfer & Intellectual property infringement remain unresolved between two parties. Dax futures trading in international market was down by 0.69% on the day ahead of European market hours indicating possibility of bearish action in German equities today. Dax is expected to open subdued and trade with bearish bias influenced by cues from international markets.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – stock markets gapped higher to kick off week

The S&P 500 gapped higher during the day on Monday, reaching towards the 2820 level, an area that has been resistance a couple of times now. We pulled back almost immediately though, so it makes sense that a pullback is probably imminent. Filling the gap is something that we will do in these situations quite often, so I think what’s going to happen as we get a little bit of a fade from here, only to see buyers come back in and pick up value somewhere around 2755 or so.

S&P 500 Video 04.12.18

Otherwise, if we break above the top of the candle stick for the day on Monday, we could break to the upside towards the 2850 handle, possibly even the 2900 level. This of course makes a lot of sense that the market would rally the way we have, as the Americans and the Chinese have chilled out when it comes to the trade war, at least for the time being. Because of this, I think that we could get a bit of a “Santa Claus rally” towards the end of the year, so I do believe that the buyers will return. However, if we close on a daily chart below the 2750 handle, that would be very negative indeed, perhaps sending the market down towards the 2650 handle. That would of course have us back in consolidation. I do believe that the next couple of days will be crucial for the direction of the market for the entirety of December.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 3, 2018 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open sharply higher. The index gapped higher on the daily and weekly chart on the opening. The move was a reaction to the bullish event over the week-end. At the G20 summit in Argentina, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce regarding their trade dispute.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, today’s early rally has put the index in a position to take out the last main top at 2818.00. A move through this level will change the main trend to up. This is followed by the next main top at 2824.25.

The minor trend is up. This is helping to generate today’s upside momentum.

The main range is 2947.00 to 2603.00. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 2775.00 to 2815.50.

The major retracement zone support is 2748.50 to 2701.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 2815.75.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out and sustaining a rally over 2815.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 2818.00 will change the main trend to up. This will also signal that the buying is getting stronger. The next target is the main top at 2824.25. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 2947.00 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 2815.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the main 50% level at 2775.00.

If 2775.00 fails as support then look for selling to possibly extend into the major 50% level at 2748.50. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this level with the next target coming in at 2701.75.

Dax Index Daily Price Forecast – DAX Index To Trade Positive Across the Day On Positive Investor Sentiment & Increased Risk Appetite

Germany equities were lower at the close on Friday, as losses in the Retail, Transportation & Logistics and Construction sectors propelled shares lower. At the close in Frankfurt, the DAX lost 0.36%, while the MDAX index fell 0.76%, and the TecDAX index lost 0.54%. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones by 408 to 305 and 67 ended unchanged on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The DAX volatility index, which measures the implied volatility of DAX options, was down 0.20% to 19.67. Friday’s bearish closing of equity market could be attributed to investor’s caution over possibility of trade tensions escalating between China & U.S. during weekend’s trade talks in side lines of G20 summit. Asian shares rallied on Monday after U.S. and Chinese leaders brokered a truce in their trade conflict which is viewed by many as a relief for the global economic outlook and a tonic for emerging markets.

Risk Appetite in Equity Market is High On Headlines of Truce Between China & U.S.A

Trade-exposed currencies led the early gains, with the Australian dollar notching a four-month peak, while the dollar slipped against the yuan. Markets are opening with a knee-jerk boost to risk appetite but many investors and analysts still maintain a relatively cautious investor stance to see how market reacts to headlines that follow Sino-U.S. trade truce during this week’s market hours. China and the United States agreed to halt additional tariffs in a deal that keep their trade war from escalating as the two sides try again to bridge their differences with fresh talks aimed at reaching a deal within 90 days.

The main reason for lingering caution amid investors is due to deeply contentious thornier structural issues such as forced technology transfer remaining unresolved. Despite traders viewing current scenario as win-win for both parties involved, there are already very different official takes on what was achieved at the meeting. Dax Futures trading in international market was up by 1.14% on the day ahead of Frankfurt market opening. DAX index is expected to open positive supported by positive cues from Asian markets and maintain upward price action across the day on increased risk appetite surrounding equity markets and risky assets.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 7024.75, Weakens Under 6966.50

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished higher last week and in a position to resume the move on Monday if it continues to move along the path it has been following since the bottom on November 20. This Gann angle has been guiding the index higher at a rate of 64 points per day for seven trading sessions. The catalysts behind the price action are the outlook for a slower pace of Fed rate hikes and optimism that the U.S. and China would reach a trade agreement this weekend.

Last Friday, the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index settled at 6949.50, up 36.25 or +0.52%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 7231.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 6449.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 6949.50, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles 6966.50 and 7024.75.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 6966.75 will be the first sign of strength. Overcoming and sustaining a move over 7024.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the main top at 7231.00.

A breakout over 7231.00 will change the main trend to up. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next downtrending Gann angle coming in at 7376.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6966.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This Gann angle has been guiding the market higher for seven sessions. If this move attracts enough sellers then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the next uptrending Gann angle coming in at 6705.50.

Additional Gann angle targets are 6577.50, 6513.50 and 6481.50. This is the last potential support angle before the 6449.50 main bottom.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 2754.00, Weakens Under 2722.00

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled higher on Friday and in a position to continue the rally, but first it is going to have to chew through a number of potential resistance levels. Secondly, the rally is going to have to get some help from the outcome of the trade talks between the U.S. and China this week-end. The market was underpinned by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but it’s going to have to get additional help from a new trade deal in order to sustain the upside momentum.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend changes to up on a trade through 2818.00. A move through 2626.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 2818.00 to 2626.00. Its retracement zone at 2722.00 to 2744.75 is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

On the upside, the next target zone is 2775.00 to 2815.50.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 2758.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 2754.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2754.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the 50% level at 2775.00, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at 2786.00.

Look for selling pressure on the first test of 2786.00. Overtaking this angle will target the next downtrending Gann angle at 2802.00. This is the last potential resistance angle before the main Fibonacci level at 2815.50 and the main top at 2818.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2754.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the index back into a Fibonacci level at 2744.50, followed by the 50% level at 2722.00.

An uptrending Gann angle at 2722.00 forms a support cluster with the 50% level at the same price. This is the most important price on the chart.

If 2722.00 fails as support then look out to the downside with the next potential target angle coming in at 2674.00.

Basically, look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over 2754.00 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 2722.00.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Weekly Trigger Point for Major Upside Breakout 7240.00

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled higher last week and nearly closed on its high as the highest ranking Fed official signaled a slowdown in interest rate hikes and an official from China sounded optimistic about the crucial meeting between United States President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping this week-end at the G20 summit in Argentina.

Last week, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 6949.50, up 418.50 or +6.41%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell ignited last week’s rally when he said the Fed was nearing neutral and suggested the central bank would reduce the number of planned rate hikes next year. Trump and Xi will be meeting to put an end to the trade dispute that could escalate if a deal isn’t reached.

Technology stocks could soar, especially shares of Apple, if the U.S. and China decide to freeze tariffs and negotiate, or rollback tariffs with the latter being the best outcome.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Weekly December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The market is far from changing the trend to up, but it is in a position to put together a strong rally. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 7728.75. A move through 6449.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could lead to a test of a pair of bottoms at 6399.75 and 6385.25. The latter is potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 7231.00 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

Given the weekly close at 6949.50, retracement level support comes in at 6905.50, 6820.00 and 6607.00. Retracement level resistance is 7061.75, 7089.25 and 7240.00.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 6949.50, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 6905.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6905.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a resistance cluster at 7061.75 to 7089.25. Sellers may come in on the first test of this zone.

Overtaking 7089.25 could trigger an acceleration into the next major target at 7240.00. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside over this level with 7728.75 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6905.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is 6820.00. The daily chart begins to open up to the downside under this level with 6607.00 the next major target.

The index will continue to weaken under 6607.00 with targets at 6449.50, 6399.75 and 6385.25.

Lookout to the downside if 6385.25 fails with the next major target the September 25, 2017 main bottom at 5916.75.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Weekly Pivot Comes in at 25483

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were boosted last week by dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and increased bets that the crucial meeting from U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping would lead to a truce over the trade war.

Both moves fueled increased demand for higher risk assets. Powell said that the Fed was getting closer to neutral with its rate hikes and suggested fewer rate hikes in 2019. This helped lift some of the bearishness that had been pressuring the market since early October.

Last week, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 25539, up 1279 or +5.27%.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average
Weekly December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according the weekly swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 24086 will change the main trend to down. This is followed closely by other bottoms at 24000 and 23580.

A trade through 26268 will shift momentum to the upside while a trade through 26966 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main range is 24000 to 26966. Its retracement zone is 25483 to 25133. Trading on the strong side of this zone is helping to give the Dow an upside bias.

The short-term range is 26966 to 24086. Its retracement zone at 25526 to 25866 is the next target zone. Once this zone is cleared, the market will have a chance to breakout to the upside.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 25539, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 25483.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25483 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 25866. Overcoming this level could drive the market into the main top at 26268. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the next main top at 26966.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25483 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of the Fibonacci level at 25133. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with potential targets lined up at 24246, 24086 and 24000.

25483 is a key pivot, but the true breakout levels are 25866 and 25133.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weekly Pivot at 2748.50

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed sharply higher last week. The price action suggests investors are most interested in two factors, lower interest rates and a new trade deal with China. Most of last week’s rally was fueled by dovish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said that the central bank is nearing neutral. He also suggested a slower pace for future rate hikes. The market was also driven higher by optimism that U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping would reach a deal to possibly end the trade war.

Last week, the December E-mini S&P 500 Index settled at 2758.25, up 128.75 or +4.90%.

E-mini S&P 500 Index
Weekly December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2603.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This is followed by a pair of bottoms at 2562.50 and 2550.00. The main trend will change to up on a move through 2947.00.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 2818.00 will change the minor trend to up. A trade through 2626.00 will signal a resumption to the downtrend.

The main retracement zone is 2748.50 to 2701.75. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. The close on the strong side of this zone is helping to give the market an upside bias.

The short-term range is 2947.00 to 2603.00. Its retracement zone at 2775.00 to 2815.50 is the next upside target. Overcoming this zone will put the index in a bullish position.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2758.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2748.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2748.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the next 50% level at 2775.00. This is followed by the resistance cluster at 2815.50 to 2818.00.

The weekly chart is wide open over 2818.00 with 2947.00 the next major upside target so be prepared for an acceleration to the upside when it’s tested.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2478.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a spike into 2701.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with potential targets coming in at 2626.00 and 2603.00. This is followed by a pair of former bottoms at 2562.50 and 2550.00.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 6932.50, Weakens Under 6822.75

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed higher on Friday. After drifting most of the session, buyers came in strong after positive comments about the trade talks hit the news. Going into the close, investors seemed optimistic that something positive would come out of this weekend’s crucial meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping.

On Friday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 6949.50, up 36.25 or +0.52%.

Favorable results from the U.S.-China meeting this week-end at the G20 summit meeting in Argentina could launch a huge breakout to the upside, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has shifted to the upside. A trade through 7231.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 6449.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. It turned up on Friday on a move through 6934.50. This move also shifted momentum to the upside.

The market also closed on the strong side of a key retracement zone at 6822.75 to 6607.00. This is helping to give the index an upside bias. This zone is new support.

It is currently testing a short-term Fibonacci level at 6932.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with another retracement zone at 7154.75 to 7290.25 the next target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 6949.50, the direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 6932.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6932.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with the next target zone 7154.75 to 7290.25. Inside this zone is the main top at 7231.00.

Overcoming 7231.00 will change the main trend to up, however, overtaking 7290.25 could trigger the start of a major breakout to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6932.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick break into 6822.75. The daily chart starts to open up to the downside under this level with the next target 6609.00. This is the last potential support before the main bottom at 6449.50 and another main bottom at 6385.25.

Basically, we’re looking for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over 6932.50. A downside bias is likely to develop on a sustained move under 6922.75.