Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 5% Today

Improved Guidance Failed To Provide Sustainable Support To Moderna Stock

Shares of Moderna gained downside momentum today as traders took some profits off the table after yesterday’s rally.

Moderna has recently reported that it expected to record revenue of $18.5 billion from existing contracts for the delivery of COVID-19 vaccine in 2022. The company may also gain approximately $3.5 billion in revenue in case all options are exercised.

For the full year 2021, the company plans to report sales of $17.5 billion. In addition to the production and development of the coronavirus vaccine, Moderna has 40 programs in development, including 23 programs in ongoing clinical studies.

In its press release, Moderna highlighted its non-coronavirus vaccines and therapeutics, which will be vital for the company’s success when the coronavirus pandemic ends. However, it remains to be seen whether the market is ready to take a look at the post-coronavirus potential of Moderna at a time when the world faces a significant wave of Omicron.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $27.85 in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 8 forward P/E, which is certainly cheap for the current market environment.

However, the market remains skeptical about Moderna’s ability to maintain its revenue in 2023 and beyond. Other vaccine stocks like Novavax and BioNTech have also underperformed in recent weeks.

It remains to be seen whether Moderna will be able to raise revenue guidance for 2022, so that analysts can re-write their earnings forecasts. These forecasts have been improving in recent weeks, but this improvement failed to provide any support to Moderna stock.

At this point, it looks that Moderna stock needs a multiple expansion to have sustainable upside from current levels. However, it is not clear whether the market is ready to assign a higher price tag for the stock at a time when its 2023 revenues remain a mystery.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Is Up By 6% Today

Novavax Stock Rallies After Company Gets Emergency Use Authorization For COVID-19 Vaccine In India

Shares of Novavax gained strong upside momentum after the company received an emergency use authorization for its coronavirus vaccine in India.

Novavax stock has been very volatile in recent months and traded in a wide range between the lows near $120, that were reached back in October, and the highs near $235, that were reached a week ago.

It should be noted that other vaccine stocks like Moderna and BioNTech have also experienced significant volatility. It looks that traders are concerned about sustainability of current revenue and profits.

New anti-viral drugs appeared in the market, and there are hopes that Omicron, which has already became the dominant variant in the U.S. according to CDC, may be less dangerous than Delta. In this environment, market sentiment shifts quickly, which is visible in the recent dynamics of Novavax stock.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

Analysts expect that Novavax will report a loss of $12.12 per share in the current year and a profit of $25.71 per share in the next year, so the stock is trading at less than 7 forward P/E.

As I mentioned above, the key problem for Novavax and other vaccine stocks is poor earnings visibility. In addition, earnings estimates for the next year have been steadily declining, which served as an additional bearish catalyst for Novavax stock.

While Novavax is cheaper than its peers, the discount is not dramatic, so it remains to be seen whether speculative traders will choose Novavax stock over the above-mentioned Moderna or BioNTech if they decide to bet on the rebound of the segment.

In recent weeks, we have seen some rush to safety, and bigger, diversified players like AstraZeneca and Pfizer had good stock price dynamics while shares of  non-diversified vaccine makers found themselves under pressure. If this trend continues, shares of Novavax will move lower despite good news from India.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

HACK: Massive Opportunity Going Into 2022

When you compare the performance of cyber security ETFs to their technology heavyweights like Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), it becomes evident that Wall Street is probably underestimating the potential of the cybersecurity industry in 2022. For the sake of this comparison, I considered the ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF (HACK) and iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK) as shown below, but there are others too.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/27/49663886-1640601244360989.png

Source: tradingview

The above charts show that both the two cybersecurity ETFs have underperformed their technology peers by more than 20%, despite holding stocks that are active in the fight against network malware and computer viruses, similarly to biotechs like BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) producing cures to address the coronavirus threat.

Now, antivirus companies have been around for years, even decades, but the problem is that the threat level has increased exponentially as from the end of 2020 when Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) was hacked through the supply chains attack when hackers made use of SolarWinds(SWI)monitoring software. Moreover, as shown by the high degree of sophistication of the recent ransomware attacks impacting colonial pipeline where millions of dollars of ransom money had to be paid to attackers, there is the involvement of bad actors at the nation-state level.

This is synonymous with aggression against the U.S., thus prompting the Biden administration to come up with a Cybersecurity executive order in May literally “forcing” federal agencies to boost IT defenses. As a result, public institutions have started to increase related expenses.

As for private institutions, they are also at a higher degree of risk due to the rapid adoption of the cloud, with workloads now also residing on employees’ laptops at home, making them more vulnerable to hacking as they are less protected by centralized corporate firewalls. Hence, there are multiple threat vectors facing CIOs, with many large enterprises reassessing their approach to cybersecurity altogether.

Hence relative underperformance in 2021 and an escalated threat landscape have created a massive opportunity for well-positioned cyber security vendors with the right products and proposition. For this matter, companies that come to mind are Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO), Palo Alto (NASDAQ:PANW), and Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT), with their sophisticated zero trust protection (“ZTP”) mechanism. ZTP, in a way, resolves the problem which cannot be solved by the more traditional perimeter fencing security where the corporation is protected assuming it to be functioning within four walls. This is far from being the case in the current decentralized/WFH environment. Exploring further, HACK holdings also include companies that provide IT security for a wide variety of purposes including desktop as well as their web infrastructures.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/27/49663886-16406012442883983.png

Source: etfmg.com

Thinking aloud, unless you are prepared to invest in these individual stocks which implies tracking their performance on a regular basis, HACK provides you with the ability to invest in more than one, namely through an ETF. Another advantage is that it tracks the Prime Cyber Defense Index (PCYBERNR), which provides a benchmark for investors interested in tracking companies actively involved in providing cyber security technology and services. Its holdings also include companies involved in security protocols applied to private and public networks and mobile devices in order to provide integrity of data protection.

Along the same lines, the fund managers review holdings on a quarterly basis for eligibility purposes, with the weights (percentage of assets occupied by a holding) being reset accordingly.

Finally, nearly two years after the advent of Covid, many companies are still in the process of transforming their operations to optimize on the cloud paradigm and should subsequently increasingly focus on the security aspect as a lesser portion of IT workloads remains in corporate datacenters. For this purpose, HACK’s holdings should profit as part of the broader cyber security industry over the next ten years as the market size which was $183.34 billion in 2020 reaches $539.78 billion in 2030.

Calculating a target share price for the end of 2022, based on an appreciation of just 20%, HACK should reach $73.5-$74. This uptrend should however witness a lot of volatility as most cybersecurity names are considered as growth stocks and should be adversely impacted as inflation pressures continue to prevail in the first half of 2022.

 

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 4% Today

Moderna Stock Keeps Moving Lower Despite Worries Over The Spread Of Omicron

Shares of Moderna gained additional downside momentum today after Merck‘s COVID-19 drug molnupiravir received an emergency use authorization from FDA. Earlier, Moderna stock faced pressure when Pfizer‘s Paxolovid got an emergency use authorization from FDA.

The market’s logic is simple. Anti-coronavirus pills will serve as an additional tool in the fight against the pandemic. If the danger from coronavirus decreases thanks to new drugs, demand for vaccines will fall over time, which will be bearish for Moderna.

In addition, the competition in the vaccine space is intensifying. Novavax vaccine has recently recevied an emergency use listing (EUL) from the World Health Organization. EUL will allow Novavax to participate in the COVAX, which aims to distribute vaccines to less developed countries.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $25.89 per share in 2021 and earnings of $26.47 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 9 forward P/E, which is cheap for the current market environment.

However, earnings visibility remains Moderna’s key problem. While it is obvious that the company will enjoy strong demand for its vaccine for 2022, the picture for 2023 is less clear. At first glance, it looks that demand should stay strong as developed countries are already rushing to introduce boosters due to the spread of Omicron while developing countries have not completed their initial vaccination programs.

However, it is not clear whether the company will be able to deliver strong profits after the pandemic ends. These worries have already put significant pressure on Moderna stock, so news about new drugs or alternative vaccines serve as bearish catalysts for Moderna shares. It remains to be seen whether speculative traders will rush to buy Moderna stock after the recent pullback or wait for more data on Omicron to adjust their estimates.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is The Omicron Variant Setting Up For A Repeat of 2020 For Gold Prices – What’s Next?

Gold prices exploded higher after Fed chair Jay Powell signalled that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus could slow the U.S economic recovery and prolong global supply chain disruptions that are fuelling unstoppable inflation.

The remarks by the Fed chief are his first on the state of the economy since the World Health Organization dubbed a new strain of the coronavirus as “a variant of concern”.

Even before Powell spoke, the precious metal ticked higher amid comments from Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel.

Bancel raised alarm bells as he declared that existing vaccines would be much less effective at tackling Omicron than earlier strains of coronavirus. He also warned it would take months for pharmaceutical companies to manufacture new variant-specific vaccines at scale.

Gold’s price action over the past week is beginning to resemble the identical trend seen during the first wave of the pandemic in April 2020.

What comes next will be dictated by what scientists discover about the new COVID-19 variant, including how resistant it is to vaccines and how more transmissible it is than the delta variant.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Speculative Positioning Ahead of Fridays Omicron Dump

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. While a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since last Tuesday, it is nevertheless interesting, not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Finally, it also gives us an idea about the level of positioning ahead of Friday’s omicron related sell off.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, November 23. The report normally released on Friday’s was delayed due to last weeks Federal holidays, and while a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, its nevertheless interesting.

Not least considering the report encapsulated the market reaction to last weeks renomination of Fed chair Powell which helped send both treasury yields and the dollar sharply higher, as well as the oil market reaction to the coordinated SPR release announcement. Also it gives a good idea about how funds and speculators were positioned ahead of the sharp risk off to the new omicron virus variant.

Commodities

The commodity sector saw sizable shift out of energy and metals into the agriculture sector where all 13 futures contracts covered in this update saw net buying. During the week the energy sector lost 2.1% while precious metals dropped 4.3% after gold broke below key support at $1830. A 1.5% rise in copper was not enough to convince speculators who cut their net long by 20%. Most noticeable however was the strong buying seen across the agriculture sector, with strong demand and weather worries more than offsetting the headwind caused by the stronger dollar.

Energy

Crude oil, both Brent and WTI, were sold ahead of the coordinated SPR release announcement last Tuesday. The combined net long dropped by 14k lots to a one-year low at 514.6k lots. The loss of price momentum during the past few months has, despite an overriding bullish sentiment in the market, been driving the reduction, and following Friday’s 10% price collapse these traders have been rewarded for sticking to the signals the market was sending instead of listening to bullish price forecasts. Hedge funds are not “married” to their positions hence their better ability to respond to changes in the technical and/or fundamental outlook.

Metals

Having increase bullish gold bets by 65k lots during the previous two weeks, funds were forced to make 45k lots reduction last week in response to the Powell renomination sending gold sharply lower and below support in the $1830-35 area. Speculators have been whipsawed by the price action in recent weeks and it helps to explain why they are in no mood to reenter in size despite renewed support from Covid19 angst. Silver’s 6% sell off during the week helped trigger a 17% reduction in the net long to 30k lots while in copper a small price increase was not enough to stem the slide in net length.

Following seven weeks of selling, the net length has dropped by 64% to 19.5k lots, a 13-week low. Months of rangebound behaviour has reduced investor focus, and until we see High Grade Copper make an attempt to break its current $4.2 to $4.5 range, the level of positioning is likely to remain muted.

Agriculture

More concerned with other drivers such as weather, strong demand and supply chain disruptions helped trigger across the board buying of all 13 futures contracts split into grains, softs and livestock. The combined long held across these contracts reached a six-month high at 1.13 million lots, representing a nominal value of $43.5 billion. Buying was broad with the top three being corn, sugar and soybeans. Elsewhere the net long in Arabica coffee reached a fresh five-year high at 58k lots and KCB wheat a four-year high at 65.6k lots.

UPDATES from today’s Market Quick Take

Crude oil (OILUKJAN22 & OILUSJAN21) turned sharply lower in early European trading as the mood across markets soured on renewed concerns about the omicron virus strain. This after Moderna’s head told the Financial Times that existing vaccines will be less effective at tackling omicron and it may take months before variant-specific jabs are available at scale.

The news come days before the OPEC+ group of producers meet to discuss production levels for January. Brent crude oil already heading for its biggest monthly loss since March 2020 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year, a sign that more weakness may lie ahead, thereby raising the prospect for OPEC+ deciding to pause or perhaps even make a temporary production cut.

Gold (XAUUSD) received a muted bid overnight in response to the omicron virus comments from the head of Moderna (see oil section above). In addition, comments from Fed chair Powell helped reduced 2022 rate expectations from three to two after he said the omicron virus posed risks to both sides of the central bank’s mandate for stable prices and maximum employment.

Despite this development together with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, gold continues to struggle attracting a safe-haven bid. Silver (XAGUSD) looks even worse having dropped to a six-week low on weakness spilling over from industrial metals.

Forex

Broad dollar buying following Fed chair Powell’s renomination helped drive a 20% increase in the greenback long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar index to $25.4 billion and near a two-year high. All the currencies tracked in this saw net selling with the biggest contributors being euro (12.6k lots), CAD (11.8k) and JPY (4.1). The net short on the latter reached 97.2k lots or the equivalent of $10.6 billion, a short of this magnitude helps explain the strength of the sell off in USDJPY since last Thursday when safe haven demand picked up as the omicron news began to spread.

Despite hitting a 16-month low last week the euro short only reached 12.6k lots, a far cry from the -114k lots reached during the panic month of February last year when the pair briefly traded below €1.08.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other

Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other

Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 23% Today

Moderna Stock Rallies As Traders Focus On The New COVID-19 Variant

Shares of Moderna gained strong upside momentum on worries about the new variant of coronavirus.

S&P 500 is down by almost 2% today, but vaccine stocks are rallying. BioNTech is up by 19%, Pfizer gains 6% while Novavax is up by 10%.

The emergence of the new variant will likely boost demand for vaccines as countries rush to vaccinate their residents or to provide boosters for them. While it remains to be seen whether existing vaccines work well against the new variant, the world has little options to choose from, so countries will likely be forced to bet on increased vaccine adoption.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Moderna stock received strong support today as traders were trying to find a way to protect their funds against the risks posed by the new variant of the virus. In this environment, vaccine stocks served as safe-haven assets.

Analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $25.76 per share in 2021 and $26.21 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 13 forward P/E. As usual, the key question is whether Moderna will be able to enjoy strong demand for its vaccine in the next few years.

Back at the beginning of November, Moderna stock made an attempt to settle below the $210 level but managed to gain upside momentum and is currently trying to settle above the $340 level.

The near-term dynamics of Moderna stock will depend on the developments on the coronavirus front. In case the new variant is a real threat, the stock will have a good chance to gain additional upside momentum.

In fact, Moderna stock may get additional support even in the scenario when the current panic turns out to be unjustified. The emergence of a new variant with many mutations has already highlighted major risks, so demand for vaccines will likely increase in any scenario.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 4% Today

FDA Approves Moderna’s Booster Shots For All Adults

Shares of Moderna gained upside momentum after FDA approved its coronavirus vaccine booster shots for all adults. Pfizer stock also enjoyed support at the start of today’s trading session as its booster shots were also approved.

Trading in vaccine stocks would have been active even without FDA approval today as Austria announced a full lockdown. In addition, Austria plans to make vaccination obligatory from February 1, 2022. Germany is expected to follow Austria’s example while the situation in other European countries is also concerning, which means that demand for vaccines will continue to grow.

Vaccine stocks have been under pressure in recent months as several anti-coronavirus drugs have shown encouraging results. Meanwhile, the number of new coronavirus cases in the world is rising while governments continue their attempts to vaccinate as many people as possible.

In this environment, demand for vaccines will stay strong, which could provide additional support to Moderna stock which has lost roughly 50% of its value since August.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analyst estimates for Moderna’s 2021 earnings have been moving lower in recent weeks. Currently, analysts expect that the company will report a profit of $25.76 per share. In the next year, Moderna is projected to report earnings of $26.32 per share, so the stock is trading at roughly 10 forward P/E.

That’s cheap, but the key question is what happens to Moderna’s earnings in 2023? If the pandemic remains out of control and more vaccines are needed, Moderna will get more profits that can be used to expand its business into other segments and make the company’s financial position more stable.

Current coronavirus trends are not encouraging, and the market’s focus may shift from new antiviral drugs to vaccines, which will be bullish for shares of all vaccine makers, including Moderna.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 18% Today

Moderna Stock Falls As The Company Cuts Its Full-Year Revenue Outlook

Shares of Moderna gained strong downside momentum after the company released its third-quarter report. Moderna reported revenue of $5 billion and earnings of $7.70 per share, missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue.

The company stated that it expected product sales of $15 billion – $18 billion in 2021 compared to the previous estimate of $20 billion. Moderna expects that deliveries of its coronavirus vaccine would total 700 million – 800 million doses compared to the previous expectation of 800 million – 1 billion doses.

Moderna has also announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion over a two-year period. According to Moderna, no shares have been bought back through the end of the third quarter.

For 2022, the company has already signed $17 billion of advance purchase agreements. It also anticipates the exercise of options of up to $3 billion and plans that U.S. booster market sales could be up to $2 billion. Thus, Moderna estimates that its 2022 revenue would total $17 billion – $22 billion.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Moderna stock has pulled back from the highs near the $500 level towards $285, but it remains to be seen whether speculative traders and investors will rush to buy the stock.

The company has just cut its guidance for 2021, and the guidance for 2022 does not promise significant growth. Moderna will start to repurchase its shares, but the size of the buyback program is not material compared to the current market capitalization.

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $26.71 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 11 forward P/E. While such valuation levels look cheap in today’s market environment, there is little earnings visibility beyond 2022, and it looks that the stock will need additional positive catalysts to break the current downside trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Moderna Q3 Earnings to Swing From Year-Ago Losses; Revenue to Skyrocket

Moderna, the biotech company focused on drug discovery, is expected to report its third-quarter earnings of $9.13 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 1,800% from a loss of -$0.53 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The Massachusetts-based biotechnology company would post revenue growth of 3,500% to around $6.09 billion.

Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine demonstrated strong uptake in multiple countries where it received authorization for temporary use in the past few months. The company expects more than $19 billion in vaccine sales in 2021. Advance purchase agreements with several countries for 2022 worth $20 billion in aggregate is already in place. It is also developing several promising mRNA-based pipeline candidates, targeting a wide range of rare diseases and cancer indications,” noted analysts at ZACKS Research.

“Multiple partnerships with big pharma companies to develop some of its pipeline candidates provide funds to the company. The early to mid-stage nature of its pipeline runs a high degree of risk. Any development setbacks would be a major disappointment for the company. Estimates have improved ahead of Q3 results. Moderna has a mixed record of earnings surprises in the recent quarters,” ZACKS added.

Moderna shares soared over 230% so far this year. The stock rose over 1% to $352.50 in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Moderna Stock Price Forecast

Thirteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Moderna in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $366.56 with a high forecast of $468.00 and a low forecast of $115.00.

The average price target represents a 5.14% change from the last price of $348.64. From those 13 analysts, five rated “Buy”, five rated “Hold”, while three rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $337 with a high of $667 under a bull scenario and $23 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the biotechnology company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Brookline Capital Markets raised the target price to $475 from $468. Deutsche Bank initiated with sell rating and $250 target price. CFRA lifted to buy from hold; lifted the target price to $385.

Analyst Comments

“We are Equal-weight Moderna. While we believe there is long-term upside for Moderna, we believe the significant valuation increase associated with the success of the COVID-19 vaccine limits the near-term upside,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“The company has taken an industrialized approach to developing mRNA-based therapeutics and has rapidly generated a broad pipeline of 21 programs, 11 of which have entered clinical development. We believe Moderna’s mRNA drug development platform is more diversified and scalable compared with competitors and is validated through broad partnerships with Merck and AstraZeneca. We see vaccines and rare diseases as the key valuation drivers of the company.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Pharmaceutical Giant Pfizer to Deliver Healthy Q3 Earnings

The blue-chip pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is expected to report earnings per share of $1.08 in the third quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of about 50% from $0.72 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The pharmaceutical company, which ranked 64th on the 2020 Fortune 500 list of the largest U.S. corporations by total revenue, will report revenue of $22.7 billion, up nearly 90% from the same period a year ago.

Pfizer’s revenue and earnings have both reached new highs due to strong sales of its coronavirus vaccine. Orders of coronavirus vaccines have continued to flood-in this year, which has led the company to upgrade its guidance multiple times.

According to the company’s latest quarterly update back in July, it expects revenue of $78.0 billion to $80.0 billion with adjusted earnings per share of $3.95 to $4.05. That would be a significant improvement from the $41.9 billion revenue and $2.22 EPS the company generated in 2020.

The stock has risen on vaccine developments for over a year now, but most investors now wonder if vaccine stocks are still worth investing.

“We’re reaching a juncture where the markets are looking past the Covid-19 pandemic. Vaccine revenue is likely to see little growth or no growth over 2022, per consensus revenue estimates for the likes of Moderna and Pfizer. We think investors will need to evaluate vaccine stocks based on the potential of their future pipelines and other drugs,” noted analysts at TREFIS.

Pfizer Stock Price Forecast

Seven analysts who offered stock ratings for Pfizer in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $46.79 with a high forecast of $61.00 and a low forecast of $40.50.

The average price target represents a 7.22% change from the last price of $43.64. From those seven analysts, one rated “Buy”, six rated “Hold”, while none rate “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $48 with a high of $56 under a bull scenario and $37 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the pharmaceutical company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Citigroup raised the price target to $46 from $43. Independent Research lifted the target price to $51 from $49.

Analyst Comments

“We project solid growth prospects, and the company’s COVID vaccine offers significant accretion potential in 2021 and 2022. But we expect COVID vaccine sales and profits to decline significantly in 2023+,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Pfizer’s dividend is expected to continue to increase at current level despite Viatris’ dividend payment. Lack of clarity in near to mid-term pipeline potential. Pipeline execution and M&A will be key to investor perception, given late-decade patent expiration exposure.”

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Earnings Week Ahead: NXP Semiconductors, Pfizer, Ferrari, Expedia and Moderna in Focus

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of November 1

Monday (November 1)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: NXP SEMICONDUCTORS

The Eindhoven, Netherlands-based semiconductor manufacturer NXP Semiconductors will post earnings of $2.75 per share in the third quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 60% from $1.59 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The leading supplier of high-performance mixed-signal products would post revenue growth of about 26% to around $2.8 billion. It is worth noting that the company has beaten consensus earnings per share estimates in each of the last four quarters.

NXP Semiconductors (NXP) has attractive exposure to secular growth themes like EVs, increasing penetration of ADAS, connectivity and mobile payments. Furthermore, the company has executed well this cycle and in particular its lean channel inventory positions them well for a snapback as demand improves,” noted Joseph Moore, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“However, we move to the sidelines after a period of strong outperformance in the stock. NXPI’s multiple relative to peers has moved from a material discount to slightly above where it typically trades. Furthermore, we think meaningful EPS revisions are going to be more difficult to come by near term.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 1

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
CCC Computacenter £81.30
MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports -$1.08
RYAAY Ryanair $1.06
ON ON Semiconductor $0.74
TTM Tata Motors -$0.14
L Loews $0.63
CNA CNA Financial $0.66
TKR Timken $1.17
AMG Affiliated Managers $3.91
SANM Sanmina $0.99
CHT Chunghwa Telecom $0.34
BEN Franklin Resources $0.86
CXP Columbia Property $0.02
ANET Arista Networks $2.73
O Realty Ome $0.40
PCG PG&E $0.26
CLX Clorox $1.03
FANG Diamondback Energy $2.78
HOLX Hologic $1.00
SBAC SBA Communications $0.81
WMB Williams Companies $0.28
NXPI NXP Semiconductors $2.75
SPG Simon Property Group $1.06
MOS Mosaic $1.54
BRKR Bruker $0.44
CAR Avis Budget $6.85
CACC Credit Acceptance $11.74
NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences $0.61
CHGG Chegg $0.19
VNO Vornado Realty $0.29
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors $0.43
BRX Brixmor Property $0.09
ADC Agree Realty $0.46
NSP Insperity $0.86
CRUS Cirrus Logic $1.63
OGS One Gas $0.38
FN Fabrinet $1.33
AWR American States Water $0.75
KMT Kennametal $0.38
VRNS Varonis Systems $0.02
LEG Leggett & Platt $0.77
RIG Transocean -$0.16
OTTR Otter Tail $1.13
RMBS Rambus $0.33
BCC Boise Cascade $2.09
MCK McKesson $4.66
PSA Public Storage $2.14
TLK Telekomunikasi Indns Tbk Prshn Pp Pt $0.45

Tuesday (November 2)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: PFIZER, FERRARI

PFIZER: The world’s largest pharmaceutical giant is expected to report a profit of $1.08 in the third quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of about 50% from $0.72 per share seen in the same period a year ago. The pharmaceutical company, which ranked 64th on the 2020 Fortune 500 list of the largest U.S. corporations by total revenue, will report revenue of $22.7 billion, up nearly 90% from the same period a year ago.

Pfizer’s revenue and earnings have both reached new highs due to strong sales of its Coronavirus vaccine. Orders of coronavirus vaccines have continued to flood-in this year, which has led the company to upgrade its guidance multiple times.

According to the company’s latest quarterly update back in July, it expects revenue of $78.0 billion to $80.0 billion with adjusted earnings per share of $3.95 to $4.05. That would be a significant improvement from the $41.9 billion revenue and $2.22 EPS the company generated in 2020.

“We project solid growth prospects, and the company’s COVID vaccine offers significant accretion potential in 2021 and 2022. But we expect COVID vaccine sales and profits to decline significantly in 2023+,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Pfizer’s dividend is expected to continue to increases at current level despite Viatris’ dividend payment. Lack of clarity in near to mid-term pipeline potential. Pipeline execution and M&A will be key to investor perception, given late-decade patent expiration exposure.”

FERRARI: The luxury sports car maker is expected to report earnings of $1.19 per share in the third quarter, representing a nearly 30% increase from $0.92 per share seen a year earlier. The company, known for its prancing horse logo, would post revenue growth of over 21% to around $1.3 billion.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 2

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
BP BP £0.15
STAN Standard Chartered £0.22
NRZ New Residential Investment $0.35
MYGN Myriad Genetics -$0.05
ARNC Arconic Inc $0.52
SRCL Stericycle $0.60
IEP Icahn Enterprises $0.11
MPLX MPLX $0.72
TRI Thomson Reuters USA $0.38
MPC Marathon Petroleum $0.70
ZBRA Zebra Technologies $4.06
EIX Edison International $1.74
EL Estée Lauder $1.70
ETRN Equitrans Midstream Corp $0.16
LEA Lear $0.61
LDOS Leidos $1.62
FMS Fresenius Medical Care $0.56
TECH Bio Techne $1.72
LPX Louisiana Pacific $3.47
EXPD Expeditors International Of Washington $1.79
MKL Markel $13.64
SABR Sabre -$0.55
BP BP $0.89
WAT Waters $2.36
XYL Xylem $0.59
UAA Under Armour Inc $0.15
UA Under Armour C share $0.15
WEC Wisconsin Energy $0.78
SEE Sealed Air $0.82
INCY Incyte Corp $0.57
INGR Ingredion $1.45
PEG Public Service $0.92
RL Ralph Lauren $2.00
LGIH LGI Homes $4.12
ARCB ArcBest Corp $2.44
CTLT Catalent $0.65
GNRC Generac $2.37
OMCL Omnicell $0.91
HEP Holly Energy Partners $0.46
IART Integra LifeSciences $0.72
KKR KKR & Co LP $0.93
PFE Pfizer $1.08
MMP Magellan Midstream Partners $0.97
IDXX Idexx Laboratories $1.91
ETN Eaton $1.73
APO Apollo Global Management $1.09
AME Ametek $1.18
DD DuPont $1.12
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties -$0.28
EPD Enterprise Products Partners $0.51
WLK Westlake Chemical $3.96
IPGP IPG Photonics $1.28
COP ConocoPhillips $1.51
GPN Global Payments $2.15
ROK Rockwell Automation $2.16
MLM Martin Marietta Materials $4.23
IT Gartner $1.56
EXLS ExlService $1.06
HSIC Henry Schein $0.94
BCH Banco De Chile $0.44
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals $3.08
WES Western Gas Partners $0.62
TMUS T-Mobile Us $0.49
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical -$1.39
AMGN Amgen $4.27
AWK American Water Works $1.52
AKAM Akamai $1.39
LSCC Lattice Semiconductor $0.24
RACE Ferrari $1.19
CMI Cummins $3.93
DOX Amdocs $1.18
PACB Pacific Biosciences Of California -$0.22
EC Ecopetrol $2,419.00
NNN National Retail Properties $0.41
KAI Kadant $1.67
EXEL Exelixis $0.16
STE Steris $1.82
WU Western Union $0.58
RDN Radian $0.71
CRK Comstock Resources $0.35
LSI LIFE STORAGE $0.81
EXAS Exact Sciences -$0.84
HALO Halozyme Therapeutics $0.43
DEI Douglas Emmett $0.07
MANT ManTech International $0.85
VRSK Verisk Analytics $1.37
ENLC EnLink Midstream $0.04
GNW Genworth Financial $0.28
AIZ Assurant $1.37
MCY Mercury General $0.80
FNF Fidelity National Financial $1.65
IOSP Innospec $1.01
HLF Herbalife $1.09
LYFT Lyft Inc -$0.02
AMCR Amcor PLC $0.18
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions $0.63
OKE ONEOK $0.82
Z Zillow $0.15
PAYC Paycom Software $0.90
PEAK Healthpeak Properties Inc $0.10
LPSN LivePerson -$0.15
EGHT 8X8 $0.01
FMC FMC $1.32
ATVI Activision Blizzard $0.70
DVN Devon Energy $0.93
AMED Amedisys $1.36
BKH Black Hills $0.65
PKI PerkinElmer $1.71
MRCY Mercury Systems $0.40
VOYA Voya Financial $1.61
XPO XPO Logistics $0.91
NMIH NMI $0.71
CDK Cdk Global $0.68
SRC Spirit Realty Capital New $0.36
MTCH Match Group $0.57
CZR Caesars Entertainment $0.16
TX Ternium $5.22
FRSH Papa Murphy’s -$0.14
MDLZ Mondelez International $0.70
PRU Prudential Financial $2.76
UNM Unum $1.15
CIB Bancolombia $0.60
AFG American Financial $1.86

Wednesday (November 3)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
EMR Emerson Electric $1.18
EVRG Evergy Inc $1.74
SBRA Sabra Health Care Reit $0.14
OMI Owens Minor $0.61
CDW CDW $2.06
CRTO Criteo $0.35
ATRC AtriCure -$0.33
HZNP Horizon Pharma $1.54
CVS CVS Health $1.79
CLH Clean Harbors $1.02
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals -$0.51
ETR Entergy $2.40
MDU MDU Resources $0.82
EXC Exelon $1.08
MATX Matson $5.23
EQIX Equinix $1.61
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals -$0.29
BWA Borgwarner $0.72
BR Broadridge Financial Solutions $0.97
HBM HudBay Minerals Ord Shs $0.05
NVO Novo Nordisk A Fs $0.78
HUM Humana $4.67
CPRI Capri Holdings Ltd $0.94
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure $0.37
MAR Marriott International $0.99
DISCA Discovery Communications $0.38
DISCK Discovery Communications Disck $0.38
DISCB Discovery Communications Discb $0.38
NYT New York Times $0.20
CIM Chimera Investment $0.37
AVA Avista $0.06
SPR Spirit AeroSystems -$0.77
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle $3.53
BGCP BGC Partners $0.15
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide $4.30
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro -$0.87
HFC HollyFrontier $0.76
CRL Charles River Laboratories $2.58
BDC Belden $1.18
CWH Camping World Holdings $1.79
VSH Vishay Intertechnology $0.65
NI NiSource $0.09
LANC Lancaster Colony $1.51
LAMR Lamar Advertising $1.15
SUN Sunoco $1.06
MAC Macerich -$0.08
ODP Office Depot $1.51
FUN Cedar Fair $2.09
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line -$2.04
QGEN Qiagen $0.54
CORT Corcept Therapeutics $0.22
ES Eversource Energy $1.06
PCRX Pacira $0.67
UTHR United Therapeutics $3.59
SHOO Steven Madden $0.77
FOX Twenty First Century Fox $1.03
ITUB Itau Unibanco $0.12
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals -$1.57
CVE Cenovus Energy USA $0.34
CLR Continental Resources $1.21
REGI Renewable Energy $1.16
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources $3.88
MFC Manulife Financial USA $0.64
STN Stantec USA $0.55
TTWO Take Two Interactive Software $1.35
APA Apache $0.91
FNV Franco Nevada $0.85
SID Companhia Siderurgica Nacional $0.43
KW Kennedy Wilson -$0.05
SWN Southwestern Energy $0.21
MGM MGM Resorts International -$0.06
FLT Fleetcor Technologies $3.48
EPR EPR Properties $0.28
SJI South Jersey Industries -$0.17
FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox $1.03
OAS Oasis Petroleum $1.75

Thursday (November 4)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: EXPEDIA, MODERNA

EXPEDIA: The online travel shopping company would post its third-quarter earnings of $1.68 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 800% from a loss of -$0.22 per share seen in the same quarter a year ago. The Bellevue, Washington would post revenue growth of about 84% to around $2.8 billion.

“We see a favorable Expedia (EXPE) risk/reward given our expectation for a U-shaped room night decline and recovery as we see online travel room night growth returning to positive growth in ’21,” noted Brian Nowak, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We are bullish about EXPE’s recent strategic investments to increase its global property supply, invest in VRBO, and improve performance marketing and see these leading to faster long-term room night growth. While these investments are likely the correct long-term strategies for growth, we see higher execution risk, longer payback and more near-term margin pressure.”

MODERNA: The biotech company focused on drug discovery, is expected to report its third-quarter earnings of $9.01 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 1,600% from a loss of -$0.53 per share seen in the same period a year ago. The Massachusetts-based biotechnology company’s revenue would post revenue growth of 3,500% to around $6.09 billion.

“We are Equal-weight Moderna. While we believe there is long-term upside for Moderna, we believe the significant valuation increase associated with the success of the COVID-19 vaccine limits the near-term upside,” noted Matthew Harrison, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“The company has taken an industrialized approach to developing mRNA based therapeutics and has rapidly generated a broad pipeline of 21 programs, 11 of which have entered clinical development. We believe Moderna’s mRNA drug development platform is more diversified and scalable compared with competitors, and is validated through broad partnerships with Merck and AstraZeneca. We see vaccines and rare diseases as the key valuation drivers of the company.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE NOVEMBER 4

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
IBP Installed Building Products $1.63
BLDR Builders Firstsource $1.63
TM Toyota Motor $2.62
PZZA Papa John’s International $0.71
TRGP Targa Resources $0.47
ZBH ZIMMER BIOMET HDG. $1.76
W Wayfair Inc. $0.03
MELI MercadoLibre $1.25
PWR Quanta Services $1.45
PENN Penn National Gaming $0.84
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Inc -$0.85
APTV Aptiv PLC $0.37
IX Orix $2.27
GPRE Green Plains -$0.29
MUR Murphy Oil $0.14
BGNE BeiGene -$4.70
BBD Banco Bradesco $0.12
CVCO Cavco Industries $2.72
PDCE PDC Energy $1.60
ILMN Illumina $1.26
EXPE Expedia $1.68
CYRX Cryoport Inc -$0.15
QDEL Quidel $3.52
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics -$0.53
MNST Monster Beverage $0.67
EOG EOG Resources $2.02
NFG National Fuel Gas $0.69
PFSI Pennymac Financial Services $3.43
OXY Occidental Petroleum $0.66
PRTA Prothena $2.26
MTZ MasTec $1.70
GBT BMTC Group -$1.11
TDS Telephone Data Systems $0.27
BAP Credicorp USA $10.73
USM United States Cellular $0.48
NKTR Nektar Therapeutics -$0.80
SWKS Skyworks Solutions $2.55
AL Air Lease $0.71
AIG AIG $0.91

Friday (November 5)

Ticker Company EPS Forecast
MGA Magna International USA $0.64
HE Hawaiian Electric Industries $0.59
SRE Sempra Energy $1.70
PNW Pinnacle West Capital $2.81
TRP Transcanada USA $0.80
HMC Honda Motor $0.56
VTR Ventas $0.05

 

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 4% Today

Moderna Stock Gains Ground As The Company Is Expected To Take A Big Share Of Vaccine Market In 2022

Shares of Moderna gained upside momentum after a Financial Times report indicated that Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will control 3/4 of non-China coronavirus vaccine market in the next year.

According to the report, Moderna is projected to make $38.7 billion in revenue due to demand for booster shots in developed countries.

Moderna stock has declined from all-time highs at $497.49 to the $300 level as traders questioned whether the company’s valuation is justified, but the stock managed to find buyers in recent weeks and is currently trying to settle above the $335 level.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Earnings estimates for Moderna have slightly improved compared to the levels seen at the beginning of the month. Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report a profit of $29.34 per share in 2021 and $27.28 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 12 forward P/E which is cheap for the current market environment.

The sustainability of Moderna’s revenue remains the main question for traders and investors. If Moderna can generate strong earnings in the next few years and use its revenue to expand the business into other areas in order to ensure the firm’s financial health after the end of the coronavirus pandemic, its shares look attractive at current levels.

The report from Financial Times may serve as a significant catalyst for the stock which has found itself under material pressure after Merck announced positive results of its antiviral drug. Merck plans to produce at least 20 million courses of its drug in 2022, so the world will still have to rely on initial vaccination and booster doses which is bullish for Moderna. If the market stays focused on the recent revenue forecast from the Financial Times report, the stock will have a good chance to develop additional upside momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Wall St Ends Up With Goldman; Dow Posts Biggest Weekly Rise Since June

Goldman Sachs Group shares jumped 3.8% and gave the Dow its biggest boost, as a record wave of dealmaking activity drove a surge in the bank’s quarterly profit.

Goldman’s report followed strong results from Bank of America and others this week. Banks were among the biggest positives for the S&P 500 on the day, and the index’s bank index climbed 2.1%.

Results from big financial institutions provided a strong start to third-quarter U.S. earnings, though investors will still watch in coming weeks for signs of impacts from supply chain disruptions and higher costs, especially for energy.

Forecasts now call for third-quarter S&P 500 earnings to show a 32% rise from a year ago. The latest forecast, based on results from 41 S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest, is up from 29.4% at the start of October, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

“We’re starting to get into an earnings-driven rally here that I hope lasts. We’ll really see the results in the next couple of weeks as a great bulk of companies in all sectors report,” said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Alcoa Corp shares surged 15.2% after the aluminum producer reported stronger-than-expected results, announced a $500 million buyback program and initiated a quarterly cash dividend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 382.2 points, or 1.09%, to 35,294.76, the S&P 500 gained 33.11 points, or 0.75%, to 4,471.37 and the Nasdaq Composite added 73.91 points, or 0.5%, to 14,897.34.

The Dow jumped 1.6% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage gain since June 25. The S&P 500 had its strongest weekly advance since July 23.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported a surprise rise in retail sales in September, although investors still worried that supply constraints could disrupt the holiday shopping season. A preliminary reading for consumer sentiment in October came in slightly below expectations.

Moderna Inc shares fell 2.3%. A Wall Street Journal report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is delaying its decision on authorizing Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine for adolescents to check if the shot could increase the risk of heart inflammation.

On Thursday, Moderna shares jumped when an FDA panel voted to recommend booster shots of its COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older and high-risk people.

Shares of cryptocurrency and blockchain-related firms gained as bitcoin hit $60,000 for the first time since April. Riot Blockchain ended up 6.6%.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.24-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 57 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 124 new highs and 59 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.83 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Additional reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru and Federica Urso in Gdansk; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Arun Koyyur and Nick Zieminski)

Wall St Ends Up Sharply as Earnings, Economic Data Lift Optimism

The technology sector gave the S&P 500 its biggest boost, with shares of Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc rising.

Shares of Citigroup, Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley rose after they topped quarterly earnings estimates. The rebounding economy allowed them to release more cash they had set aside for pandemic losses, while sizzling deals, equity financing and trading added to profits. The S&P bank index jumped.

UnitedHealth Group Inc also climbed after the health insurer reported results and raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast on strength from its Optum unit that manages drug benefits.

Adding to optimism, data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell close to a 19-month low, and a separate report showed producer prices eased in September.

“Some of the things that worried the market in September, and even last week, as far as the inflation aspect and higher interest rates and the Delta variant, maybe have lessened,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc., an investment advisory firm, based in Toledo, Ohio.

“Not that it’s all over, but on a temporary scale at least, you can make a case for it trending in the right direction.”

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 74.35 points, or 1.70%, to end at 4,438.15 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 248.97 points, or 1.71%, to 14,824.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 532.21 points, or 1.55%, to 34,910.02.

Gains were broad-based, with all S&P 500 sectors higher.

Shares of Moderna Inc were sharply higher after a panel of expert advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted to recommend booster shots of its COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older and those at high risk of severe illness.

Also in earnings, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc jumped after the drugstore chain reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted profit above estimates and forecast growth of 11% to 13% in the long term.

U.S. companies are expected to report strong quarterly profit growth for the third quarter, but investors have been keen to hear what they say about rising costs, labor shortages and supply problems.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Additional reporting by Devik Jain in Bengaluru and Federica Urso in Gdansk; Editing by Arun Koyyur and David Gregorio)

Best Stocks, Crypto, and ETFs to Watch This Week

Third quarter earnings season starts this week, with reports from Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and a host of commercial banks that include Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC). Dow component JPMorgan Chase and Co. (JPM) looks like the best bet after earnings because it’s trading within pennies of an all-time high, with no overhead resistance. Accumulation hasn’t matched positive price action due to mixed messages about inflation but growing fears of rising rates could easily yield higher bank stock prices.

The smart trade on Bitcoin could be to the downside in coming weeks, but don’t sell short too early. The current advance has lifted within 2,000 points of the .786 Fibonacci retracement of the second quarter decline. This harmonic level is euphemistically known as the ‘place that rallies go to die’, with high odds for a reversal and decline that could reach moving average support below 50,000. In turn, that might be a perfect spot to go long for a ride into April’s all-time high.

Moderna Inc. (MRNA), one of the decade’s hottest stocks so far, should be watched for a buying opportunity in coming sessions. The stock posted an all-time high in August and broke down from a double top at the start of October, dropping to a three-month low. However, the selloff is rapidly approaching July’s unfilled gap between 261 and 271, which has narrowly aligned with the 200-day moving average. This level marks a high odds turning point for a high percentage relief rally.

The WTI Crude Oil futures contract tagged 80 for the first time since 2014 on Friday, rallying on limited supply and soaring demand. Energy funds that include SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE) have underperformed the commodity due to debate about climate change and the transition into alternative energy. Sadly, politicians don’t realize it will take years to replace fossil fuels, raising the potential for $200 crude oil that yields windfall profits and higher stock prices for producers.

Facebook Inc. (FB) got clobbered after a whistleblower told her story to 60 Minutes and Congress, prompting calls for new regulation. The selloff reached the 200-day moving average last week, setting up a key test of support. The stock has tested this level three times since April 2020 and has bounced three times, suggesting that dip buyers will go to work this week. However, aggressive profittaking may be needed, with the declining 50-day moving average above 350 likely to trigger another reversal.

For a look at all of this week’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Best ETFs For October 2021

Checking in on Big Money activity however, we see a tale of two markets.

Going to MAPsignals.com we can scan Big Money ETF Buys and Sells. We see ETF buying and selling activity is partly driving volatility. You’ll notice in 2020, there were clear patterns. Big selling (red bars) led markets lower followed by huge buying (blue bars) lifting markets. But this year is a washing-machine:

Chart, histogramDescription automatically generated
Source: www.mapsignals.com

Long-term investors should look for ETFs (and their stocks), with great setups for the months ahead.

Remember: ETFs are just baskets of stocks so we need to look at them. MAPsignals specializes in scoring more than 6,000 stocks daily. If I know which stocks compose the ETFs, I can apply stock scores to the ETFs. Then I can rank them all strongest to weakest.

Let’s get to the 5 best ETF opportunities for October.

#1 SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)

Financials are hot. We see Big Money has been buying KRE earlier this year. We saw fresh buy signals recently too as possible interest rate hikes could benefit lenders:

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KRE holds solid stocks; one example is First Bancorp (FBP). Here are Big Money signals for FBP:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

#2 iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF)

I’m looking for growth with a twist: Recently punished large-cap growth stocks should bounce at some point. IWF displayed lots of green signals this year. And when we see red selling on great ETFs (and their stocks) it can be a great opportunity.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

One great stock that IWF holds is Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG). It’s a long-time outlier with awesome fundamentals, recently announcing a 3-for-1 split. The multi-year chart below shows when red appears on great stocks, it’s usually an opportunity:

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#3 Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

We all know QQQ – the NASDAQ 100 Index tracker. It’s like the Dow Jones of the 1920s. After some solid green, it’s pulled back substantially and should eventually bounce.

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One big winner inside of QQQ is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). It’s an outlier stock:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

#4 Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB)

The first three ETFs were from the strong part of my ranked list. Now we look for bargains by identifying weaker ETFs holding stocks with strong fundamentals. The Materials sector faced pressure recently. Many companies face supply-chain headwinds. These are temporary. Long-term investors should see opportunity in temporary dislocations.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

It holds great stocks. One such winner is Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW). Big Money loves it. The multi-year chart says don’t bet against it:

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

#5 iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB)

Biotech pulled back substantially. News of Merck’s pill reducing hospitalizations and deaths by 50% hit the sector. I think it will recover nicely. The pullback offers a nice entry for a long-term investment:

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Great stocks in IBB are seeing reaction selling to the Merck news. One is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA). Vaccines will still get manufactured and sold. I believe stocks like these will recover and thrive:

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Here’s a Bog Money recap:

  • When Big Money buying pours in, stocks tend to go up
  • Red selling on great quality can be a great opportunity
  • Repeated buying usually means outsized gains

Let’s summarize here:

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KRE, IWF, and QQQ rank high. XLB and IBB however, rank lower on our list, due to weaker technicals. That’s why I think these weaker ETFs represent great potential bargains.

The Bottom Line

KRE, IWF, QQQ, XLB and IBB are my top ETFs for October 2021. Market volatility is hitting all stocks. They will eventually recover and thrive.

To learn more about MAPsignals’ Big Money process please visit: www.mapsignals.com

Disclosure: the author holds no positions in KRE, FBP, ISRG, QQQ, MSFT, XLB, SHW, IBB or MRNA but holds long positions in IWF in managed accounts at the time of publication.

Investment Research Disclaimer

Moderna Could Offer Low-Risk Buying Opportunity

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) fell 11.4% on Friday after Dow component Merck and Co. Inc. (MRK) announced positive clinical results for a pill to reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and death. If emergency use is approved, patients can take the pill after infection but it won’t replace the billions of vaccinations still needed to inoculate the planet. The decline added to a string of losses since late September, bringing the total weekly loss to a staggering 19.44%.

The Pure COVID Play

MRNA’s float is just 344 million shares, far lower than the billions at Merck, Pfizer Inc. (PFE), and AstraZeneca PLC (AZN), generating volatile price action that’s highly levered to pandemic catalysts, positive and negative. In fact, shareholders have been whipsawed by price swings of 80 points or more, higher and lower, four times since the end of July. Unfortunately, accumulation has deteriorated badly on the latest downturn, exposing the stock to a deep Q4 correction.

However, the future is bright for the Cambridge, MA juggernaut, which holds the most important biotech patents since statins hit the market in the 1980s. The company announced a host of “significant advances across its growing portfolio” at a Research and Development Day last month, with ongoing trials and treatments for the COVID booster, RSV + hMPV, Epstein-Barr, and forms of cancer. In addition, it announced that 37 programs are now in development, including 22 in ongoing clinical studies.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is mixed after Moderna’s historic gains, with a ‘Hold’ rating based upon 5 ‘Buy’, 7 ‘Hold’, and 1 ‘Underweight’ recommendation. In addition, three analysts recommend that shareholders close positions and move to the sidelines. Price targets range from a low of $85 to a Street-high $485 while the stock closed Friday’s session more than $100 below the median $453 target. It’s instructive to note that analysts have been horrifically wrong about the pandemic’s trajectory since the start of 2020.

Moderna came public at 22 in 2018 and traded in a range between 11 and 30 into 2020 when it broke out in a powerful but highly volatile uptrend. It cleared resistance in the 80s in November and another barrier at 160 in June 2021, entering a final wave that posted an all-time high at 497.49 in August. The stock just broke down from a double top pattern, favoring downside that could offer a low-risk buying opportunity at the unfilled July gap between 260 and 271.

For a look at this week’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Merck COVID-19 Pill Success Slams Moderna Shares, Shakes Up Healthcare Sector

Merck shares jumped as much as 12.3% and hit their highest level since February 2020 after data showed the company’s pill molnupiravir  could halve the chances of dying or being hospitalized for those most at risk of contracting severe COVID-19. Experts hailed the news as potentially a huge advance in the fight against COVID-19.

At the same time, shares of vaccine makers such as Moderna Inc, Pfizer Inc and partner BioNTech SE were hit, with some analysts saying the promise of an oral drug that can be taken at home could change the public perception of risks associated with COVID-19.

“We see modest perceived headwind to vaccine stocks such as MRNA (Moderna) if the market thinks people will be less afraid of COVID-19 and less inclined to get vaccines, if there is a simple pill that can treat COVID-19,” Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said in a client note.

Moderna shares tumbled 13% in midday trading, while Pfizer, which is developing a COVID-19 pill of its own, fell 1.3%. U.S. shares of BioNTech dropped 11%.

For Moderna investors, the Merck news presented an opportunity to lock in gains after an already stunning run. Shares of Moderna, which were added to the S&P 500 in mid July, remain up some 220% in 2021 despite Friday’s declines. BioNTech’s shares were also still up about 200% for the year, even with Friday’s fall. The Merck news is a “great reason for folks to be taking profits off the table” in Moderna and BioNTech shares, said Sahak Manuelian, head of equity trading at Wedbush Securities. “These moves can get exacerbated to the downside given the momentum they have had to the upside.”

Shares of other companies with COVID-19 vaccines also fell, with AstraZeneca down 2% and Novavax falling 16%.

Companies with other COVID-19 therapies that are administered intravenously or through injection also traded lower, with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals In down nearly 5% and Gilead Sciences Inc off about 2%.

Healthcare was the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in negative territory in mid-day trading, falling 0.5%. “We see molnupiravir, with its oral format as a clear game changer that is likely to meaningfully impact not just the treatment paradigm for COVID-19 but also has potential utility in the prevention setting,” Piper Sandler analyst Christopher Raymond said in a research note.

Merck is conducting a late-stage trial to see if its antiviral pill can prevent COVID-19 infection, in addition to the study that showed it can significantly cut hospitalization and death in those already infected.

Merck, whose shares were last up about 9%, leads the race in developing the first oral antiviral medication for COVID-19. Rivals such as Pfizer and Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG with partner Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc are running late-stage trials of their pills. Atea shares were up 19%.

Merck, which discontinued its own COVID-19 vaccine program, had seen its shares fall about 4% for the year through Thursday, before they moved into positive territory for 2021 on Friday.

“Merck has kind of been dead in the water to investors for the past couple of quarters,” said Kevin Gade, portfolio manager with Bahl & Gaynor, which owns Merck shares. “This shows their R&D engine is not dead and they were first … in what could be a multi-billion dollar opportunity.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Manojna Maddipatla in Bengaluru; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Bill Berkrot)

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 15% Today

Moderna Stock Falls As Merck Reports Positive Results Of Its Antiviral Drug

Shares of Moderna found themselves under strong pressure after Merck announced the resuls of the study for its antiviral drug molnupiravir. The study found that the drug reduced the risk of hospitalization or death for coronavirus patients by 50%.

Not surprisingly, the news have pushed Merck stock to yearly highs. At the same time, shares of vaccine makers suffered from strong sell-off. BioNTech stock is down by 13% while Novavax stock is down by 19% in today’s trading session.

The market is worried that a successful anti-coronavirus drug will hurt demand for vaccines in the future. While demand for vaccines will certainty remain strong in 2022, the market begins to question whether demand will stay healthy in 2023 and beyond.

Before Merck’s announcement, it looked that vaccine makers can count on an annual coronavirus shot, just like in the case of a flu shot. However, if a successful drug emerges, the pressure on people to get these shots may wane over time, which will crash demand for coronavirus vaccines.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analyst estimates for Moderna’s earnings in 2021 have recently moved lower, and now analysts expect that the company will report earnings of $29.31 per share this year. In 2022, Moderna is expected to report earnings of $27.1 per share, so the stock is trading at roughly 12 forward P/E, which is cheap for the current market environment.

However, it looks that the market is ready to pay attention to the company’s longer-term potential which remains unclear. Moderna may continue to enjoy strong demand for its vaccines, which means that the stock is extremely cheap at current levels, or it may suffer from a rapid deterioration of this demand. The market looks nervous after Merck’s announcement, so traders should be prepared for volatility in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.