S&P 500 Gains Ground After Powell’s Comments On Inflation And The Labor Market

Key Insights

  • S&P 500 gained strong upside momentum after the release of Fed Chair Powell remarks. 
  • The market focused on the potential slowdown of the pace of Fed rate hikes. 
  • A move above 4000 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 4015.

Powell’s Remarks Provided Support To Stocks

S&P 500 moved higher after the speech from Fed Chair Powell as his remarks contained no surprises.

Powell noted: “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting […] It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time.”

In general, Powell said the same things as Fed speakers in their recent public statements. The Fed will have to raise interest rates to a restrictive level and then hold them at this level for some time to make sure that inflation is under control.

Markets are focused on the potential slowdown of the pace of rate hikes. It looks that traders hope that inflation will start moving lower at a robust pace, and the peak rate would not be too high.

Treasury yields moved lower after Powell’s remarks, which was bullish for tech stocks. NASDAQ Composite gained strong upside momentum and made an attempt to settle above the 11,150 level. Tesla, Meta, NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Microsoft were up by more than 2% in today’s trading session.

S&P 500 Is Moving Towards The 4000 Level

S&P 500

S&P 500 moved above the 3960 level after Powell’s remarks. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. The next resistance level for S&P 500 is located at 4000. A move above this level will push S&P 500 towards the 4015 level. If S&P 500 gets above 4015, it will head towards the resistance at 4040.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3960 will serve as the first support level for S&P 500. If S&P 500 gets back below 3960, it will head towards the support at 3920. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next support near the 50 EMA at 3885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Moves To Session Lows After Hawkish Comments From Fed Officials

Key Insights

  • Protests in China raised worries about additional supply chain disruptions. 
  • Hawkish comments from Fed’s Williams and Bullard put more pressure on S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. 
  • A move below 3960 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3920.

Fed Speakers And Protests In China Hurt Market Sentiment

S&P 500 settled below the 4000 level as traders reacted to protests in China and hawkish comments from Fed officials.

China was shaken by protests after 10 people died in a fire in the Xinjiang province. Protesters believed that victims of the fire did not get timely help due to anti-coronavirus measures.

Markets fear that China’s zero-COVID policy and protests will put more pressure on the country’s economy and lead to additional supply chain issues. These fears pushed WTI oil towards yearly lows, although oil markets managed to rebound amid rumors about a potential production cut from OPEC+ on December 4.

Fed speakers put additional pressure on market sentiment. Fed’s Williams said that inflation remained too high and that unemployment rate may grow up to 5% at the end of 2023. He noted that Fed should continue to raise rates.

Williams has also said that the Fed may start to bring down interest rates in 2024, which was too hawkish for the market that hopes that Fed would start cutting rates in the second half of 2023.

Meanwhile, Fed’s Bullard said that markets were underestimating chances of higher interest rates. He noted that the rates should be raised to at least 5%.

Today’s pullback was led by tech stocks, which are sensitive to the changes in the market’s appetite for risk. Apple, Microsoft, and Meta were down by about 2% in today’s trading session.

S&P 500 Heads Towards The Support Level At 3960

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently moving towards the support level at 3960. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at 3920. In case S&P 500 declines below 3920, it will head towards the next support at the 50 EMA at 3885.

On the upside, the previous support at 4000 will serve as the first resistance level for S&P 500. If S&P 500 manages to settle back above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 4015. A move above the resistance at 4015 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 4040.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Was Mostly Flat In Quiet Trading

Key Insights

  • Trading was calm amid low trading volume.  
  • NASDAQ Composite declined as Treasury yields moved higher. 
  • S&P 500 remains close to the important 4040 level which could be tested next week. 

Traders Were Not Ready For Big Moves In The Shortened Trading Session

S&P 500 was mostly flat in today’s trading session. Trading activity was low as many traders have preferred to enjoy a long weekend.

Retailers’ stocks have been in focus today as traders tried to evaluate Black Friday activity. Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon have been mostly flat today as traders failed to find enough catalysts for big moves. That said, Ralph Lauren and PVH Corp. were the biggest gainers in S&P 500.

Activision Blizzard was among the biggest losers today amid worries about the fate of Microsoft‘s acquisition. According to recent reports, the FTC could file an antitrust suit to block the takeover. Microsoft stock was flat in today’s trading.

The recent pullback in the oil markets put some pressure on energy stocks in the last hour of trading. The pullback in WTI oil was caused by reports that indicated that EU delayed talks on the Russian oil price cap until next week. Problems in price cap negotiations are bearish for oil markets as they increase chances that Russian oil exports will not decline after December 5.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have moved higher today. Interestingly, these moves did not put any pressure on the S&P 500. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite declined by 0.5% as tech stocks are more sensitive to changes in yields.

S&P 500 Is Stuck In The 4015 – 4040 Range

S&P 500

From a big picture point of view, nothing has changed in the last two days. S&P 500 managed to settle above the 4015 level and found itself in a range between the support at 4015 and the resistance at 4040.

S&P 500 needs to settle above the resistance at 4040 to continue its rebound. A move below the 4015 level may lead to a sell-off as some traders will rush to take profits after the recent rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Declines Below 3960 As Energy Stocks Pull Back

Key Insights

  • Energy stocks reacted to the strong sell-off in oil markets. 
  • Tech stocks have also moved lower, pushing the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite below the 11,100 level. 
  • Some market segments are gaining ground today, indicating that the general market sentiment remains somewhat bullish. 

The Sell-Off In Oil Markets Hurts S&P 500

S&P 500 pulled back towards the 3940 level as tech and energy stocks moved lower. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite was down by 0.6%.

Energy stocks have been among the worst performers in the S&P 500 amid a strong pullback in oil markets. Diamondback Energy, EOG Resources, and Pioneer Natural Resources were down by 3-4% in today’s trading session.

Leading mega cap stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla, have also found themselves under material pressure today, which was bearish for the S&P 500. NVIDIA was down by 3% as traders continued to adjust their positions after the recent earnings report.

Treasury yields moved higher today, and the yield of 2-year Treasuries managed to settle back above the 4.50% level. While stock traders shrugged off hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard, bond traders paid more attention to his words. In case Treasury yields move higher at a robust pace, S&P 500 will find itself under more pressure.

It should be noted that today’s pullback is not broad, and market segments like utilities, healthcare, and consumer defensive are moving higher, which means that the general sentiment remains bullish.

S&P 500 Tries To Settle Back Below The 3960 Level

S&P 500

S&P 500 failed to settle above the 3960 level and pulled back towards 3940. The nearest support level for S&P 500 is located at 3920. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If S&P 500 declines below the support at 3920, it will move towards the next support level at 3885. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the support at 3865.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above 3960 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for S&P 500 is located at 4000. If S&P 500 gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 4015. A move above 4015 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 4040.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Layoffs in the Tech Industry on the Rise

Big Tech firms have dominated the US economy for the last decade. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have all surpassed the trillion-dollar value threshold, making them some of the most valuable companies in modern history.

However, during the last 12 months, cracks have started to appear in that domination. Industry leaders started issuing cutback warnings, and companies like Google, Microsoft, and Facebook implemented hiring freezes on the down low. The companies also issued conflicting signals during the summer, as economic confidence fluctuated between positive and negative.

Even further alarm has been raised in recent weeks as a wave of earnings announcements revealed that even the most enduring corporations are having significant difficulty maintaining the revenue growth they were able to display over the last few years.

Right now in response, across Silicon Valley and around the world, big tech companies are reducing their workforces in an effort to save expenses in preparation for a worldwide economic downturn.

Most of them are struggling with the same issues.

They grew too fast, inflation is too high, interest rates are rising, clients are low on purchasing power, borrowing to expand is more expensive, the strong dollar is eroding their profit margins, too many people were hired during the pandemic, supply chains were disruptive, and now growing recession fears.

Some in the industry are likening the recent activity to the dot.com crash from 20-odd years ago. Many are at least calling it the end of an era. Regardless, there will be plenty of talent looking for jobs in the near future, and it could just be the beginning.

Let’s take a look at just a few company examples that have been making the news over the last weeks.

Twitter

Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. Concerns about less moderating, fleeing advertisers, and threats to place the whole site behind a paywall followed the takeover, which was eventually achieved via a drawn-out litigation process.

Since then, it’s reportedly been losing millions of dollars a day and has been delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

One week after taking control, on November 3rd, news sites began reporting that Musk wanted to lay off half of Twitter’s 7,500 employees.

Former Twitter CEO, CFO, director of legal policy and safety, and chief marketing officer were among those who were terminated from their jobs. Twitter’s senior privacy, security, and compliance executives have also just recently left the company.

Up to this point, Twitter has had to lay off approximately 3,700 of its staff.

Meta

This week, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that the company’s parent company, Meta, will be laying off 11,000 workers, or 13% of its worldwide workforce. This comes as the company this year so far has seen its share price plummet by nearly 70%.

In the third quarter, Meta’s revenue was down 4% year over year to $22.1 billion, while costs and expenditures increased 19%. In contrast to the previous year, operating income fell 46% to $5.66 billion. Net income for the three months of Q3 was $4.4 billion, down 52% from the previous year’s $9.8 billion.

Zuckerberg owned up to the layoffs in a statement released by Meta, saying that he built the company too big and too quickly. He stated that he was misled by the sudden boom brought on by the pandemic and that he expected it to continue long after the outbreak.

He responded to the trend by increasing his workforce significantly. Ad spending has been falling, and Apple’s privacy update has gone into effect, so the company’s income can’t sustain the same investment in expansion and employees it had planned for before.

He went on to say that Meta would be taking “steps to become a leaner and more efficient company” Among these measures include cutting down on team budgets, eliminating perks, giving up certain office leases, and “extending our hiring freeze through Q1.”

Meta weekly chart – Source: ActivTrader platform from ActivTrades

Amazon

With online sales slowing, Amazon has seen its share price drop by more than 40% this year. This week, it was reported by The New York Times that the business intends to shed 10,000 employees, or around 3% of its workforce.

According to its Q3 earnings, the company reported that it had actually fared quite well compared to many of its tech peers, but was still below market expectations. Net sales in the third quarter were $127.1 billion, up 19% year over year.

The company hired thousands of new staff during the boom times of the pandemic, but is now having to come to terms with slowing demand. Recently they implemented a hiring freeze while stopping some of its warehouse expansions. Additionally, the company had stopped working on concepts like a robot that would deliver packages personally.

Jeff Bezos, the founder and CEO of Amazon, issued a warning last month, stating that the US economy was telling people to “batten down the hatches.”

Amazon weekly chart – Source: Online trading platform from ActivTrades

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S&P 500 Gains 4.5% As Traders Bet The Fed Will Raise Rates By 50 Bps In December

Key Insights

  • Weaker inflation report and dovish commentary from Fed members sparked rally in stocks.
  • Tech stocks enjoyed strong support as traders rushed to buy riskier assets. 
  • A move above 3920 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance at 3960.

Tech Stocks Rally As Inflation Rate Drops To 7.7%

S&P 500 is up by 4.5% as traders react to the U.S. inflation reports, which indicated that Inflation Rate declined from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is up by 6%.

Inflation data provided huge support to global markets today. In addition, Fed members signaled Fed may slow rate hikes, which was also bullish for stocks.

Tech stocks are leading the rally. NVIDIA and Amazon are up by 12%. Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla are gaining 6%.

The rally is broad and all market segments are moving higher, which is not surprising as a less hawkish Fed policy would benefit the whole market. Consumer defensive stocks lag the market as traders focus on riskier plays.

Tomorrow, traders will focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which is expected to show that Consumer Sentiment declined from 59.9 in October to 59.5 in December. Given the strength of today’s rally, traders will likely demand a strong report to continue the rebound. If Consumer Sentiment misses expectations, traders will likely decide to take some profits off the table ahead of the weekend.

S&P 500

S&P 500 managed to settle above the 3900 level and is testing the resistance at 3920. RSI remains in the moderate territory despite the strong rally, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 settles above the 3920 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3960. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 4000. If S&P 500 gets above 4000, it will move towards the next resistance level at 4015.

On the support side, the nearest support level for S&P 500 is located at 3885. In case S&P 500 settles below this level, it will move towards the next support at 3835. The 50 EMA is located at 3815, so S&P 500 may get material support in the 3815 – 3835 area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Retreats From Session Highs As Energy Stocks Pull Back

Key Insights

  • Energy stocks are under pressure as WTI oil settled below the $89 level. 
  • Take-Two Interactive declined by 15% as traders reacted to the disappointing earnings report. 
  • A successful test of the support at 3805 will push S&P 500 towards the support level at 3760.

Energy Stocks Decline Amid A Sell-Off In Oil Markets

S&P 500 pulled back from session highs as energy stocks moved lower due to the sell-off in oil markets. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has also found itself under material pressure in recent hours.

WTI oil has declined below the $89 level as traders remained disappointed that China did not relax its zero-COVID policy. This move was bearish for energy stocks.

It should be noted that leading mega cap stocks like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Tesla have been also moving lower today.

Meanwhile, basic materials stocks enjoyed strong support. Gold producer Newmont Corporation gained 6% as gold moved above the $1700 level. Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan was up by 2% as copper made an attempt to settle above the key $3.70 level.

Take-Two Interactive was down by 15% after the company reported revenue of $1.4 billion and a loss of $1.54 per share, missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue.

Traders will stay focused on the midterm elections, which may provide additional support to stocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields are moving lower, which is bullish for S&P 500.

From a big picture point of view, the lack of market enthusiasm in the mega cap stocks remains a serious problem. Former leaders like Amazon and Tesla are trading at multi-month lows, which indicates that traders’ risk appetite remains limited.

At this point, the market is mostly supported by energy and basic materials stocks. If traders focus on recession risks and energy stocks gain downside momentum, S&P 500 may move closer to yearly lows.

S&P 500 Tests Support At 3805

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently trying to settle below the 3805 level. In case this attempt is successful, S&P 500 will move towards the support at 3760. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at 3725. In case S&P 500 gets below the support at 3725, it will head towards the next support level at 3690.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above the 3805 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 3835. If S&P 500 manages to settle above this level, it will move towards the resistance at 3885.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Drops 2.5% As Powell Says It Is Premature To Pause Rate Hikes

Key Insights

  • Powell’s comments pushed stocks to weekly lows. 
  • The Fed remains ready to raise rates aggressively. 
  • A move below the support at 3760 will push S&P 500 towards the next support level at 3725.

S&P 500 Retreats As Powell Stays Hawkish

S&P 500 found itself under strong pressure and moved towards the 3760 level after Powell’s comments at the press conference. Nasdaq Composite was down by 3.36%.

Today, the Fed raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, in line with the analyst consensus. The original reaction to the FOMC statment was positive as the Fed noted that it would take into account the lags with which monetary policy affected economic activity and inflation. Traders interpreted this statement as a sign that Fed would move cautiously after raising rates aggressively.

However, Powell’s comments indicated that the Fed remained hawkish. The Fed Chair said that it was very premature to pause rate hikes. He also promised that the Fed would stay the course until the job was done.

Powell noted that over-tightening would not be a big problem as the Fed had the tools to provide significant support to the economy. At the same time, raising interest rates to an insufficiently restrictive level could lead to entrenched inflation and hurt the economy. The Fed Chair also noted that soft landing chances have narrowed.

Not surprisingly, these comments put significant pressure on the stock market. The sell-off was led by stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla, which were down by 3-5% in today’s trading session.

After the market close, traders focused on the Qualcomm report. The company reported revenue of $11.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.13 per share, mostly in line with the analyst estimates. The company cut its guidance and expects to report revenue of $9.2 billion – $10 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.25 – $2.45 per share in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023. The market did not like the guidance cut, and the stock was down by more than 5% in the post-market session.

S&P 500 Tests Support At 3760

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently trying to settle below the support level at 3760. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the next support, which is located at 3725. A successful test of the support at 3725 will open the way to the test of the support at 3690.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to get back above the 3760 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level is located at 3805. If S&P 500 moves above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 3835.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Retreats As Tech Stocks Decline

Key Insights

  • Tech stocks pulled back as Treasury yields continued to rebound. 
  • Meta declined towards the $93 level as traders reacted to the major Instagram outage. 
  • Energy stocks managed to gain some ground today despite a broad pullback in oil markets and Biden’s plans to impose a windfall tax on energy companies. 

Meta Tests New Lows

S&P 500 settled near the 3870 level amid a broad pressure in the tech segment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite retreated towards the 11000 level. The sell-off was led by Meta, which lost 6% in today’s trading session.

The major Instagram outage served as the main negative catalyst for Meta shares today. However, it looks that investors remain disappointed by the recent earnings report. Earnings estimates are moving lower at a robust pace, which is bearish for Meta stock. Other leading tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon were down by 1-2% today.

The yield of 10-year Treasuries has moved towards the 4.10% level today as traders remained nervous ahead of the Fed Interest Rate Decision, which will be released on Wednesday. Higher Treasury yields and stronger dollar put additional pressure on stocks.

Interestingly, energy stocks managed to gain some ground today despite the pullback in oil markets and Biden’s plans to introduce a windfall tax on energy producers.

NXP Semiconductors was down 2% in the post-market session after releasing its quarterly report. The company reported revenue of $3.45 billion and GAAP earnings of $2.79 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. NXP Semiconductors noted that its results were impacted by the weakening macro environment in its IoT business.

The company added that it remained cautious in the intermediate term due to the “uncertainties in the macro environment.” Traders also prefered to remain cautious, and the stock found itself under pressure in the post-market session.

It should be noted that semiconductor stocks have been mostly moving lower in recent months due to rising tensions between U.S. and China, which may hurt the semiconductor industry worldwide. It remains to be seen whether the situation improves in the upcoming months.

S&P 500 Settled Back Below The Support At 3885

S&P 500

S&P 500 faced resistance at 3915 and moved below the support at the 3885 level. In case S&P 500 settles below this level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located near the 50 EMA at 3835.

A move below the 50 EMA will open the way to the test of the support at 3805. In case S&P 500 declines below 3805, it will head towards the support at 3760.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle back above the 3885 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If S&P 500 climbs back above 3885, it will head towards the resistance at 3915. A move above this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance level at 3960.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Intel Rallies As Traders Cheer Job-Cut Plans

Key Insights

  • Intel gained 10% after the release of a better-than-expected earnings report. 
  • Traders cheered Intel’s plans for aggressive cost cuts. 
  • The market was able to shrug off the weak guidance for the next quarter. 

Intel Shares Test Multi-Week Highs

Intel gained 10% in today’s trading session as traders cheered the company’s job cut plans.

Intel announced revenue of $15.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.59 per share, meeting analyst estimates on revenue and beating them on earnings.

Intel stock declined from the highs near $68 in 2021 to the recent lows near $25, so market’s expectations were modest ahead of the report.

The company revised its full-year revenue guidance to $63 billion – $64 billion to reflect the continued macroeconomic headwinds. In the fourth quarter, Intel plans to report revenue of $14 – $15 billion, so the company’s revenue would decline compared to third-quarter levels.

Inteд’s capex forecast was cut from $27 billion to $25 billion as Intel remained focused on cutting costs. In the longer term, Intel expects to deliver $8 billion – $10 billion in annual savings by the end of 2025. The company will focus on optimizing its business and controlling costs.

Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, noted: “To position ourselves for this business cycle, we are aggressively addressing costs and driving efficiencies across the business to accelerate our IDM 2.0 flywheel for the digital future.”

The Market Is Ready To Buy Cheap Tech Stocks

The market sentiment in the tech segment has been weak in recent weeks. Traders’ reaction to Intel’s report shows that some market participants are ready to buy beaten stocks in the tech segment if companies present a viable plan for the future.

Intel is trading at levels that were last seen back in 2016, and it’s not surprising to see that some traders are ready to bet on a successful turnaround.

In the near term, traders will likely stay focused on general sentiment in the tech segment. Big names like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta have been under serious pressure in recent months, and it remains to be seen whether the tech segment will gain sustainable upside momentum at a time when the Fed is raising rates aggressively.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

BTC Fear & Greed Holds Steady on BTC Return to $21,000

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 3.41% to end the day at $20,790. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the first time since September 13.
  • Market sentiment towards the Fed Pivot delivered another breakout session for BTC and the broader market.
  • The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index consolidated Tuesday’s exit from the Extreme Fear zone with a modest decline from 33/100 to 32/100.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 3.41%. Following a 3.95% rally on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $20,790. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the first time since September 13 (US CPI report for August) before easing back to wrap up the day at $20,000 for the second time since October 5.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early morning low of $20,077. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,426, BTC surged to an early afternoon high of $21,022. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $20,607 to test resistance at $21,000 before easing back.

The US economic calendar was on the quiet side mid-week, leaving bets of a Fed pivot to drive crypto demand. BTC and the broader market decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which suffered at the hands of disappointing corporate earnings.

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) delivered disappointing earnings and warnings to leave the NASDAQ 100 in the red.

Going into the Thursday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of November and December rate hikes at 85.4% and 38.9%, respectively. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 77.0%.

Later today, US economic indicators will be back in the spotlight. Q3 GDP, inflation, and jobless claims will give the markets further clues on what to expect from the Fed. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was up 32.75 points.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 51.25 points, delivering crypto support ahead of today’s stats.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated
NASDAQ decoupling.

The Fear & Greed Index Slips to 32/100, But Supports a BTC Run at $25,000

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index slipped from 33/100 to 32/100. Despite the decline, the Index remained within the Fear zone, consolidating Tuesday’s exit from the Extreme Fear zone.

A shift in sentiment toward Fed monetary policy eased investor fears ahead of today’s data dump. Later today, a pickup in US inflation and a fall in jobless claims, coupled with better-than-expected Q3 GDP numbers, could refuel fears of a hawkish December move.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. However, a fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Fear & Greed Index holds steady.
Fear & Greed 271022

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.06% to $20,777. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $20,861 before falling to a low of $20,625.

BTC holds steady.
BTCUSD 271022 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $20,630 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,182. A BTC return to $21,000 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,575 and $22,000 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $22,520.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,237 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,685. Later today, BTC movement will be US data dependent.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,740.

BTC resistance levels in play above the pivot.
BTCUSD 271022 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,684.

After Wednesday’s bullish cross, the 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA to deliver bullish signals.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would signal another breakout session. However, a BTC fall through S1 ($20,237) would bring S2 ($19,685) and the EMAs into view.

EMAs bullish.
BTCUSD 271022 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE Leads the Crypto Top 100

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten, with dogecoin (DOGE) surging by 15% to lead the way.
  • A quiet US economic calendar left crypto investors to respond further to expectations of a Fed pivot.
  • The crypto market cap jumped by another $31.4 billion to $959.6 billion.

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten. Dogecoin (DOGE) led the way, with ethereum (ETH) also enjoying another breakout session. Notably, BTC visited $21,000 for the first time since September 13 before wrapping up the session at $20,000 for the second consecutive session.

Market sentiment toward Fed monetary policy remained the key driver throughout the Wednesday session. US economic indicators have supported recent FOMC member suggestions that the Fed could take its foot off the gas.

Housing sector numbers on Wednesday reflected weaker demand, with new home sales declining by 10.9%. The crypto market decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, which ended the day with a 2.04% loss. US corporate earnings left the Index in the red. Microsoft Corp (MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) delivered disappointing earnings and warnings to spook investors.

Later today, US economic indicators will be back in the spotlight. Q3 GDP and jobless claims will give the markets further clues on what to expect from the Fed. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 mini was up 32.75 points.

NASDAQ decoupling
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 271022 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Jumps by Another $30 Billion to Target $1 Trillion

A mixed start to the day saw the crypto market fall to an early low of $923.9 billion before making a move. A Fed pivot-fueled rally saw the crypto market surge to an early afternoon high of $972.4 billion before easing back.

A $31.4 billion jump to $959.6 billion, following Tuesday’s $39.9 billion surge, took the market cap up by $54 billion for the current month.

Crypto market nears $1 trillion
Total Market Cap 271022 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Wednesday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE led the way, surging by 15.22%, with ETH (+7.26%) also enjoying another breakout session.

ADA (+0.75%), BNB (+2.15%), BTC (+3.41%), SOL (+1.39%), and XRP (+1.75%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

DOGE led the way, with ethereumPoW (ETHW) and mina (MINA) seeing gains of 12.69% and 9.69%, respectively.

However, chain (XCN) led the way down, falling by 7.29%, with quant (QNT) and huobi token (HT) seeing losses of 0.53% and 3.14%, respectively.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Ease Back as Bulls Remain in Control

Over 24 hours, total liquidations slipped as investor sentiment continued to drive demand on the expectations of a Fed pivot. However, liquidations remained elevated as bullish moves pushed out short positions. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $746.96 million, down from $806.19 million on Wednesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 103,200 versus 119,682 on Wednesday morning. Liquidations were up over one, while down over four and 12 hours.

Crypto liquidations remain elevated as shorts get pushed out.
Total Crypto Liquidations 271022

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $796.59 million to $416.18 million, with four-hour liquidations down from $18.25 million to $8.89 million. One-hour liquidations rose from $0.613 million to $1.47 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Bullish session for the crypto market.
Total Market Cap 271022 Hourly Chart

S&P 500 Pulls Back As Big Tech Stocks Retreat

Key Insights

  • S&P 500 declined towards the support at 3835 as traders focused on the disappointing reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. 
  • Lower Treasury yields and weaker dollar did not provide sustainable support to stocks. 
  • Meta’s disappointing earnings report, which was released after the market close, may put more pressure on the S&P 500.

Meta Stock Tests Multi-Year Lows In The Post-Market Session

S&P 500 touched highs at the resistance at 3885 but lost momentum and moved towards the support at 3835 as it was dragged down by the leading tech names.

Alphabet was down by 9% while Microsoft lost 7% after disappointing earnings reports, which were released yesterday after the market close.

Boeing lost 8% after missing analyst estimates and recording an additional $766 million charge on the contract for two new U.S. presidential airplanes.

The negative impact of the disappointing reports from the leading tech companies offset the positive impact of lower Treasury yields and weaker U.S. dollar. The yield of 10-year Treasuries made an attempt to settle back below the 4.00% level as traders bet that the Fed may be forced to be less hawkish.

It should be noted that the Bank of Canada has already decided that aggressive rate hikes were putting too much pressure on the economy and raised the rate by 50 bps, compared to analyst forecast of 75 bps. This move provided some support to global markets.

While leading tech stocks found themselves under pressure, energy stocks like Hess, Halliburton, ConocoPhillips and others were moving higher amid a strong rebound in the oil markets.

In the post-market session, traders focused on Meta‘s quarterly report. Meta reported revenue of $27.71 billion and earnings of $1.64 per share, beating analyst estimates on revenue and missing them on earnings. The company noted that ad impressions increased by 17% year-over-year, while the average price per ad declined by 18%. Revenue declined by 4% on a year-over-year basis. Traders did not like the report, and Meta is down by 12% in the post-market session. Meta’s results may have a material negative impact on market’s mood tomorrow.

Ford reported revenue of $39.4 billion and a loss of $0.21 per share. The loss was driven by the $2.7 billion non-cash impairment of Ford’s investment in Argo AI, which was developing L4 advanced driver assistance systems. Ford’s results were also impacted by supply shortages and higher-than-expected supplier payments. The stock was down by about 1% in the post-market session.

S&P 500 Faced Strong Resistance At 3885

S&P 500

S&P 500 failed to settle above the resistance at 3885 and declined towards the support level at 3835. In case S&P 500 settles below this level, it will head towards the support at 3805, although it should also get some support at the 50 EMA at 3815. A move below the support at 3805 will open the way to the test of the next support at 3760.

On the upside, S&P 500 needs to settle above the resistance at 3885 to continue its rebound. The next resistance level for S&P 500 is located at 3915. If S&P 500 climbs above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 3960.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bank Of Canada Boosts Hopes Of A Less Hawkish Fed

Key Insights

  • The BoC surprised markets by raising the rate to 3.75%. 
  • The Bank looks worried about the negative impact of higher interest rates on the Canadian economy. 
  • Traders wonder whether Fed’s thinking process may be similar as higher interest rates have already hit the housing market in the U.S. 

Bank Of Canada Raises The Rate To 3.75%

The Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising the rate from 3.25% to 3.75%, compared to analyst consensus of 4.00%. This move had a significant impact on the world’s markets as it raised hopes that the Fed could do the same.

The BoC noted that Canada’s inflation remained high as households and businesses wanted to buy more goods and services than the economy could produce. At the same time, higher interest rates have started to weigh on growth, which was evident in areas like housing.

BoC noted that it was “trying to balance between the risks of under- and over-tightening”. The Bank also added that it was getting closer to the end of the tightening phase.

The markets interpreted BoC’s move as a sign that the central bank did not want to crush economy with high interest rates. The key decision for global markets will be released on November 2, when the Fed will announce its interest rate decision.

Markets Price In A 89.3% Probability Of A 75 Bps Rate Hike At The Next Fed Meeting On November 2

Currently, markets expect that the Fed will increase the interest rate from 3.25% to 4.00%. Traders had the same expectations for the BoC Interest Rate Decision, but the Bank pushed the rate to just 3.75%.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting is 89.3%. Markets expect that this rate hike will be followed by a 50 bps hike at the meeting in December. It should be noted that traders believe that the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2023, but any dovish signals may change the market’s view.

The Fed may not be ready for a surprising 50 bps hike, but it may signal that it will decrease the pace of rate hikes at the next meetings.

Markets have started to price in the rising probability of this scenario. S&P 500 tested multi-week highs despite disappointing earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. Bond markets rallied. Commodities like oil and copper gained strong upside momentum on hopes that the Fed will be less hawkish, which will be good for the economy.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500, Dow Recover from Early Session Losses but Tech Worries Weigh on NASDAQ

The major U.S. stock indices opened lower in cash market trading after the release of a disheartening first round of major technology earnings reports late Tuesday.

The NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 Index opened down 2.3% and 0.9%, respectively, as tech companies generated downward pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, bucked the mostly bearish tone with a 29 point, or 0.1% gain, on the back of strong earnings results from Visa.

The tech-driven indexes and sectors were mostly pressured by spillover selling from the premarket session. Leading the move to the downside were shares of Google-parent Alphabet and tech giant Microsoft. Other mega-cap tech stocks declined in premarket trading. Shares of Meta Platforms fell 4%, and Amazon slipped 3.8%.

Companies Outperforming the Major Indexes

Harley-Davidson shares rose 6.7% after the motorcycle maker reported beating expectations before the bell, CNBC reported. Shares of the hotel company Hilton increased 2% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The company also increased its full-year forecast, saying it continues to benefit from strong demand to travel coming out of the pandemic. Dow component Visa was up after beating profit and revenue expectations.

Food producer Kraft Heinz shares were up 3% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The company said it benefited from continued strength in its trash collection business and successful cost controls.

Waste Management shares jumped 3% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The company said it benefited from continued strength in its trash collection business and successful cost controls.

Additional Disappointments

Plane maker Boeing is putting in a mixed performance despite reporting a quarterly loss and revenue below expectations. Shares of toy maker Mattel dropped 5.5% after it cut its full-year forecast and revenue came in below expectations.

US Mortgage Rate Jump to Highest Since 2001, but New Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise

The average interest rate on the most popular U.S. home loan rose to its highest level since 2001 as tightening financial conditions weigh on the housing sector, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday.

In other news, US New Home Sales rose to 603K units, betting the 579K unit forecast. However, last month’s figure was revised lower to 677K units.

Looking Ahead…

Investors are going to be playing catch up most of the session on Wednesday as they try to recover the premarket losses fueled by the Alphabet and Microsoft misses. However, the trade could be a little tentative because Meta Platforms reports after the bell and they are expected to disappoint. Furthermore, megacap giants Amazon.com and Apple are scheduled to report after the bell on Thursday. This may be enough to keep risk conscience investors on the sidelines until early next week.

If investors decide to shrug off the bad news then this could only mean one thing, they are putting more emphasis on the possibility the Fed announces next Tuesday that it is willing to begin slowing the size of its rate increases in December.

Currently, traders are pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike in November and a 50 basis point rate hike in December.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Markets Look on Edge

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The E-mini S&P 500 contract gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Wednesday, which is not a huge surprise considering that both Microsoft and Google missed their earnings estimates. Furthermore, they both had less than stellar guidance, so perhaps a little bit of reality is starting to creep back into the market. If the big players in the stock market fall, these indices tend to do the same, mainly because they are not equal weighted. After all, the S&P 500 is much like other indices in America, designed to go up based upon all of the favorites.

Beyond that, we have GDP numbers coming out tomorrow, and that might have people a bit concerned as well, because a higher than anticipated GDP number has people looking at the possibility of the Fed actually doing what they’ve been telling the market for months. That being said, hope burns eternal so no one can really know where we go next in this type of emotional environment, but all things being equal it looks like we are setting up for a nice move lower, especially as Apple is reporting after the close tomorrow, and therefore that could add more downward pressure as we have seen Microsoft and Google absolutely body bag the futures overnight.

If we break down below the 3800 level, then it’s likely that we head back into the previous consolidation area that had been so important for so long. With that being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we drop again. Add to that the fact that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate meeting and statement next week, we could be heading into some rough seas.

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 27.10.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

NASDAQ Over 1% Lower as Weak Microsoft, Alphabet Results Fan Recession Fears

US stock market investors are bracing for a sharply lower opening on Wednesday led by a more than 1% drop in the technology-weighted NASDAQ Composite Index. The anticipated weakness is being fueled by disappointing earnings reports and warnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell on Tuesday. Additionally, the news is spreading amongst other megacap companies with investors being spooked by fears of slowing economic growth.

The catalyst behind today’s anticipated weakness on the opening are dismal performances by Microsoft and Alphabet, which are both down about 6% each in premarket trading. The weakness is even spreading to other major tech-driven companies such as Amazon.com and Apple, which are scheduled to report results later this week. Both were down 3.7% and 0.9%, respectively, ahead of the opening.

“The results of the big technology firms were seen as a key determining factor in market sentiment going into the U.S. third quarter reporting season and both Microsoft and Alphabet have given investors reason to worry,” said Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.

What Went Wrong at Alphabet?

Straight up, Alphabet missed analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines. The main reason for the misses is being attributed to a drop in revenue at YouTube, while analysts were expecting growth of about 3%. Additionally, total growth of 6% marked the weakest period of expansion since 2013, other than one period during the pandemic.

The details of the earnings report show that revenue growth slowed to 6% from 41% a year earlier as the company contends with a continued downdraft in online ad spending.

YouTube ad revenue slid about 2% to $7.07 billion from $7.21 billion a year ago. Analysts were expecting an increase of about 3%. Alphabet reported overall advertising revenue of $54.48 billion during the quarter, up slightly from the prior year.

Microsoft Beats the Street, but Poor Guidance Sinks Shares

Microsoft stock is taking a hit early Wednesday after the company reported softer cloud revenue than expected in its fiscal first quarter and gave weak quarterly guidance.

With respect to guidance, Microsoft predicts $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion in revenue for the fiscal second quarter, which implies 2% growth at the middle of the range. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had been looking for revenue of $56.05 billion.

Additionally, Microsoft’s implied operating margin for the fiscal second quarter was about 40%, narrower than the 42% consensus among analysts polled by StreetAccount.

One-Time Events or Tip of Iceberg?

Investors could extend the early losses or bounce back throughout the session, but are more than likely to hold prices in a range in anticipation of after-the-bell earnings from Meta Platforms on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon.com are both scheduled to report on October 27.

Their respective reports will be looked over closely to determine if there is a weaker trend developing or if we should anticipate only short-term weakness.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Investors Are Digesting Disappointing Earnings From Tech Giants

Earnings in Details

Google reported slowest revenue growth since 2013 and its fifth consecutive quarter of declining sales growth, including the first drop in ad revenue for its YouTube platform.

Similarly, Microsoft sales growth also slowed due to eroding personal computer sales while income fell to the lowest level in more than two years. Facebook parent Meta Platforms is the big tech highlight today and expected to report a second consecutive quarter of slowing ad revenue.

Meta’s struggles have been well broadcast, so bulls are hoping that unimpressive earnings won’t add to the bearish sentiment that’s threatening the entire tech sector right now.

Other earnings due today include ADP, Boeing, Bristol Myers Squibb, Canadian Pacific, CME Group, Edwards Lifesciences, Ford, Norfolk Southern, Suncor Energy, and Thermo Fisher Scientific.

Overall, bulls still expect decent Q3 results will help keep stock prices buoyed but are looking ahead to a bigger boost from a shift in Fed policy.

There is again a growing belief among many bulls that interest rate hikes will get smaller starting as soon as the central bank’s December meeting.

Economic Data

Bears, however, argue that inflation still remains too high for the Fed to consider easing up on its tightening program and any extended rallies will be short-lived as long as investors believe the Fed is going to keep lifting rates.

In particular, bears are pointing to bond yields that continue to surge, providing an increasingly attractive alternative to stocks.

Investors will be combing the details of updated monetary from the Bank of Canada today and the European Central bank on Thursday for clues as to where the US Fed might be headed next.

US data today will provide some more insights into how the overall economy is doing with advance reads on International Trade, and Retail and Wholesale Inventories today.

New Home Sales for September are also due today with analysts expecting a sizable drop to an annualized rate of around 585,000, versus 685,000 new home sales in August.

It’s worth noting that the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August showed a +13% year-over-year gain, down from +15.6% the previous month.

In a statement, S&P managing director Craig Lazzara said the decline “clearly” shows the growth of home prices peaked this spring and that the “forceful deceleration may well continue.” I continue to believe we are in the midst of yet another bear market rally that may continue for the next couple for weeks. I am staying overweight “cash” and am not interested in chasing the market higher.

S&P 500 Rallied Above The 50 EMA As Treasury Yields Declined

Key Insights

  • Weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields provided material support to stocks. 
  • The disappointing economic data also served as a positive catalyst for the market.
  • The market’s optimism will be tested by earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. 

Stocks Moved To Multi-Week Highs

S&P 500 gained strong upside momentum today as Treasury yields pulled back from their recent highs. CB Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller Home Price Index reports indicated that high interest rates have started to put material pressure on the economy. These reports were bullish for stocks as disappointing economic data may force the Fed to be less hawkish.

Today’s rebound was broad, and all market segments were moving higher. REITs enjoyed strong support due to lower Treasury yields.

PayPal  gained 7% after Amazon added Venmo as a payment option ahead of the holiday season. Amazon’s decision will boost PayPal’s results in the fourth quarter.

Meta gained 6% as traders bet that the worst has been already priced in ahead of the earnings report, which will be released tomorrow after the market close.

The market optimism was tested by major earnings reports, which were released after the market close.

Alphabet reported revenue of $69.09 billion and earnings of $1.06 per share, missing analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. The company’s stock has immediately found itself under pressure and moved below the $100 level.

Microsoft  reported revenue of $50.1 billion and earnings of $2.35 per share. The company noted that Microsoft Cloud revenue was $25.7 billion, up by 24% on a year-over-year basis. The strong growth in the cloud segment did not provide material support to the stock in the post-market session, and Microsoft moved below the $250 level.

Visa reported revenue of $7.8 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.93 per share, beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. The company increased its dividend to $0.45 per share and announced a $12 billion share repurchase program. While the increase in the dividend and the stock buyback were good news for Visa shareholders, the stock was mostly flat in the post-market session.

Traders should note that these stocks will be sensitive to comments made during the earnings calls, and tomorrow’s dynamics may differ from the price action in the post-market session.

S&P 500 Pulls Back From Highs After Alphabet Misses Analyst Estimates

S&P 500

From a big picture point of view, S&P 500 managed to settle above the 50 EMA at 3815 and continued its rebound. The nearest resistance level for S&P 500 is located at 3885. In case S&P 500 settles above this level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 3915. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 3960.

On the support side, the nearest support level for S&P 500 is located at 3835. If S&P 500 declines below this level, it will head towards the next support level at 3805. A move below 3805 will open the way to the test of the support at 3760.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Earnings Season Continues – “Big 5” Report Over the Next 72 hours

Stock investors await big tech earnings. The so-called “Big 5” tech companies – Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft – which account for nearly 25% of the S&P 500‘s total market value, all report over the next 72 hours.

Big 5” in Details

Alphabet and Microsoft kick things off after markets close today, followed by Meta on Wednesday, and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The results are viewed not only as a gauge of the wider technology industry’s health, but also the overall economy as these companies touch nearly every corner of American business and consumer life.

Growth for the “Big 5” is expected to have slowed to just under +10%, compared to +55% profit growth in full-year 2021 when revenue for these behemoths topped a record $1.4 trillion.

With the stocks of these 5 companies down by double-digits for the year already, many bulls think there is potential for a strong rally if they can deliver better-than-expected results.

Importantly, investors are looking for signals that lingering pandemic supply chain snags are mostly in the rear view, which would be positive for both corporate margins as well as the Fed’s inflation fight. The really big concern, however, is how they are handling their outsized US dollar exposure. This could be a tough headwind as these multinationals face serious exposure to the strength in the US dollar.

Data to Watch

Earnings are also due today from 3M, ADM, Biogen, Chipotle, Coca-Cola, General Electric, General Motors, Raytheon, UPS, Valero, and Visa.

On the economic data front, home prices take center stage with the FHFA House Price Index and the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, both for September.

For what it’s worth, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for August registered the first month-over-month decline since January 2019. While prices in the 20-city index fell by -0.8%, year-over-year home prices are still up more than +14%.

Investors may also be monitoring the Ukraine situation a bit more closely in the days ahead. Russia has been warning that Ukraine is going to deploy a so-called “dirty bomb” – a bomb that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives – in its own territory. Ukraine as well as Western officials have rejected the accusation, but some are worried that Russia is making the claim as a pretext for escalating the war.

Other military officials think it is just a scare tactic, with Russia hoping that the West’s support of Ukraine will weaken under the threat of global nuclear war.

Something else worth keeping an eye on is the 10-year Treasury yield posting a new multi-year high yesterday at 4.25%… money continues to circulate and certainly has some alternatives it hasn’t had in many years.