Cardano Price Prediction: Can ADA Rally Above $0.5, Amid Bullish Momentum?

Key Insights:

  • The Marco-market conditions still looked sluggish, but the crypto market cap noted a bullish bounce.
  • MATIC and UNI noted the highest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
  • For ADA to chart a true recovery, the coin’s price would need a strong push from bulls above the $0.50 mark over the weekend.

A spike in inflation rates and elevated uncertainty led to investors’ appetite for risk-taking dropping in June. Last month, the US annual inflation rate was raised from 8.6% to 9.1%, as opposed to the forecasted 8.8%.

Reportedly, this month’s FOMC meeting discussed concerns around the effect of rate hikes on the US economy. Minutes of the meeting further showed that members considered a 50-basis point rate hike more appropriate.

The Marco-market conditions still looked sluggish, but the crypto market cap noted a bullish bounce on Thursday. On Wednesday, the NASDAQ 100 fell by 0.15% after losing 0.95% a day before and continued the downwards trend at press time. While S&P 500 saw a 0.40% fall towards the end of June 14.

In a previous FXEmpire article, analyst Bob Mason presented that on Wednesday, investors poured $38 billion back into the market to take the crypto market cap up $14 billion for July. Seemingly, the crypto market cap’s upward momentum started to take off on Wednesday amid rising pressure from bulls.

MATIC, UNI Lead Gains as ADA Pumps 5%

As bullish market updates strengthened the crypto narrative, certain projects like Polygon and Uniswap garnered more attention than others. MATIC and UNI noted the highest gains among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap at the time of writing.

MATIC price levels started gaining bullish momentum on July 14 after getting selected for the Walt Disney Company’s business development program. The coin’s price surged by over 22% to a high of $0.659 – its highest level in almost a month.

As bulls strength, the gains, MATIC’s price also climbed above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which has acted as a crucial resistance since MATIC’s gains in January 2022.

On the other hand, DeFi token UNI noted a close to 20% surge in price over the last 24 hours after broker Robinhood Markets added the token to its crypto trading platform. UNI’s price gained momentum as social sentiment for the coin turned bullish on Thursday after Robinhood announced in a Twitter post.

Some tokens like Cardano’s ADA still took it slow, despite BTC and ETH’s 5% and 10% gains on the daily window, respectively.

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis

At press time, ADA traded at $0.4436, noting a 4.52% rise on the daily price frame. However, the 8th ranked crypto by market cap was still down by 6.35% on the weekly window. Despite many cryptocurrencies providing a break-even opportunity, ADA’s price still risked a decline to the $0.40 barrier.

In the short term, a daily close above the $4.550 mark could ensure further gains above key resistance levels. For ADA to chart a true recovery, the coin’s price would need a strong push from bulls above the $0.50 mark over the weekend.

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ADA Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

On ADA’s four-hour chart, the relative strength index (RSI) presented a rise in buyers from June 14. A steady surge in buying pressure has favored ADA’s price. Thus, if buying pressure continues to dominate the market and RSI presents net domination from buyers, ADA price could see a healthy uptick.

Additionally, with the upcoming Vasil hard fork, development activity on the Cardano network has picked up the pace. Cardano saw higher Github commits than some competitors like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche.

Ahead of the hard fork, the technical director of open-source development at the Cardano Foundation revealed that the node, ledger, network, and consensus appear stable. However, can these positive developments in the larger market and developmental advances push ADA’s price?

ADA’s short-term price movement could be larger market-driven amid high volatility. That said, in the crypto market, nothing is certain it’s best to ‘do your own research,’ especially in a bear market.

Top 5 Cryptocurrency Pairs to Watch this Week: BTC, ETH, AAVE, QNT, RUNE

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin and ether looked at solid weekly gains as the top two crossed crucial support levels.
  • Ether and Aave rallied on high social sentiment alongside renewed bullish momentum.
  • Quant and THORChain’s RUNE also saw gains, but can they continue over the next week?

Despite the recent short-term bullish momentum and BTC’s high daily gains, macro uncertainty still left investors skeptical of a true recovery. Nonetheless, the larger sentiment turned for the better over the last week despite a rise in US yields and Fed tightening bets on strong US jobs and service sector survey data.

US tech stocks posted solid gains over the last week. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week with nearly 4.5% weekly gains. Of late, top cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have formed a higher correlation with tech stocks and indices.

The last week, was relatively bullish for the traditional market as well as cryptocurrencies as BTC rebounded to as higher as $22,500. The total crypto market cap resumed its upward trend, but weekend blues pulled down BTC’s price and the global crypto market cap.

Over the last few months, investors have constantly been concerned that the US and the global economy is weakening towards recession. Thus, market participants are steering clear of risky assets.

For now, however, the recent bullish momentum fetched decent weekly gains for the top crypto and a few altcoins. The crucial question remains whether the recent gains are, in fact, a recovery of another fakeout.

So, here are the top five cryptos to watch out for in this new week.

Bitcoin (BTC)

On July 7, BTC’s price broke above the crucial $21,400 mark, but bitcoin bulls could not keep up the bullish momentum above the higher $22,000 mark. Bitcoin’s price pullback from the $22,500 mark indicated that bears were still in control.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

On a daily chart, BTC’s price saw a green candle for six consecutive days alongside a rising relative strength index (RSI). A rising RSI indicates buying pressure rising in the market as buyers dominate the scene.

Daily RSI highlighted that until July 8, buyers gained strength in the market, however, bears defended the $22,500 resistance with their might reversing the bullish momentum. This week, BTC’s trajectory could be crucial to watch as larger market gains would depend on the top coin’s track.

Owing to the recent gains, many in the market believed that BTC’s price bottom was in, however, CryptoQuant analysts cautioned investors and traders to ‘be careful.’

Notably, the High Leverage Ratio shows that the crypto market is still moving by futures market.

From the end of 2021, the Leverage Ratio rose for a certain period and then always fell sharply with the BTC price down. This situation kept happening until recent days.

Furthermore, Funding Rates are near zero. Usually, when BTC reaches the bottom, the funding rate drops and rises sharply. That didn’t happen at the recent low of $17,600.

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Source: Crypto Quant

Additionally, the analyst said,

“We can’t ignore about possibility for Recession from Liquidity supply perspective. Even if BTC may rise a little more, we should also expect further BTC drop after that.”

Ethereum (ETH)

While the weekend saw decent profit-taking amid pre-macro event caution, ETH’s technicals presented a bullish scenario with the possibility of a breakout to as high as $1,700.

FXEmpire analyst, Joel Frank, in a recent article, presented,

“If Ethereum can muster a push above the $1,280 level, that would open the door for a swift rally towards its 50DMA around $1,440.”

At the time of writing, the top altcoin traded at $1,163.22 vs USD noting a 4.26% loss on the daily chart. However, ETH’s last week was fruitful as the coin was up by 10.65% on its weekly chart.

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Ethereum (ETH) Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

In the near term, if a push from bulls can place the coin above the $1200 mark, the same can ensure higher gains.

Aave (AAVE)

AAVE bulls led a recovery above the 50-day simple moving average just under the $80 mark on July 9. The rise in buying pressure indicated a likely change in trend.

With RSI in the positive zone alongside AAVE’s 36.46% weekly gains, it was evident that bulls are attempting to gain the upper hand in the market.
Over this week, the $85 and $93 mark could act as strong resistances for the token. A push from bulls above the said levels could point towards a solid recovery for the coin.

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Aave (AAVE) Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Quant (QNT)

Quant’s native token QNT saw some amusing gains over the last week as larger market momentum picked up. QNT’s bullish trajectory indicates that a bottom may be in place.

After almost two months, a significant price uptick took the token above the $77 mark. As QNT bulls pushed their way, the coin’s price picked up, establishing above $76. Over this week, if bullish momentum continues, the next crucial price levels to watch will be the $89 and the $100 mark.

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Quant (QNT) Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

THORChain (RUNE)

RUNE traded at $2.27 at press time, with a 4.64% loss on the daily price window. However, the token was in the top 5 weekly gainers of the last week. As the week closed, the coin presented 25.94% weekly gains at press time.

The altcoin’s price presented a tight range bound movement between the $1.77 and $2.40 mark since June 12. A move above the $2.50 resistance in the short term could help the coin regain market momentum.

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THORChain (RUNE) Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

A rise in RSI presenting a higher buying pressure could indicate a change in trend over this week.

Does the Crypto Crash Affect Web3’s Future?

Key Insights:

  • Over the last two months, the crypto markets have witnessed massive corrections.
  • The global cryptocurrency market cap has shrunk to $930 billion, but traditional markets are taking a beating too.
  • The Web3 and blockchain market is anticipated to register a CAGR of 45.20% despite the recent crash.

American internet entrepreneur Chris Dixon has defined Web 3.0 as ‘the internet owned by users and builders orchestrated with tokens.’ While Dixon’s definition of Web 3.0 doesn’t describe the entirety of the same, it does, however, present a decent picture of what Web 3.0 is truly capable of.

More often than not, mainstream media and newbies put words like blockchain, NFTs, Web 3, DeFi, and many others under a more significant umbrella term – cryptocurrencies.

Over the last two months, crypto markets have witnessed massive corrections. News pieces and blogs have been filled with narratives of ‘crypto is dead.’ Amid the larger bearish undertone, a lot of critics and analysts have argued whether the recent crash would derail the future of Web 3.0 and blockchain.

So, Is Crypto Dead?

Well, while some say ‘crypto is dead,’ others believe that it could just be playing dead. Even though crypto market enthusiasts are desperately waiting for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether, and altcoins to bounce back with their full might, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that a significant recovery could be a little optimistic for now.

The global cryptocurrency market cap has shrunk to $938.66 billion as of July 7, from the $3 trillion high it touched in November 2021. While numbers present a gloomy picture, it’s not just the crypto market that’s bleeding.

2022 has also been a year of losses for major indexes. High inflation, rising interest rates, and growing concerns about corporate profits and economic growth affect investors’ appetite for risk. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is down over 25% through roughly the first six months of 2022, while the S&P 500 Index is down by nearly 20%.

The crypto market has been ravaged by weak global cues amid heightened inflation and interest rate hikes. Crypto investors and traders are now wondering whether the market will bounce back again this year.

While tension and panic continue to plague crypto investors, it needs to be kept in mind that macro market conditions haven’t been ideal. In fact, the higher correlation between cryptocurrencies and the traditional finance markets could be viewed as a positive move as this cloud mean that cryptocurrencies as an asset are maturing.

Innovation Stays Intact

While cryptocurrencies being an asset class, are prone to volatility and price change, pretty much like stocks, blockchain technology on which Dapps are made, and crypto functions is an ever-growing technology.

Notably, a May 5 report by Prophecy Market Insights presented that the global Web 3.0 blockchain market accounted for $1231.54 million in 2020 and is estimated to be $87761.35 million by 2030. The sector is anticipated to register a CAGR of 45.20%.

On the other hand, according to another report, the IT services market is expected to register a CAGR of about 10.36 % during the forecast period, 2022-2027.

Thus, numbers indicate a healthy growth graph for blockchain technology and the Web 3 market. Seemingly, innovation continues to take place even though the price trajectory was largely disappointing for the crypto crowds.

Crypto narratives in mainstream media have also been plagued by standalone events like Terra and Celsius’s collapse over the last few months. The marketwide sell-offs, lower open interest, and larger-scale lay-offs in the crypto market added to the space’s bearish pressure.

A Crypto Recovery Incoming

This isn’t the first time the crypto market is seeing a significant pullback; in 2015, 2018, and then 2020, during the pandemic – the global crypto market has seen its ups and downs. Over the many bear markets and long-drawn price pullbacks, the technology behind cryptocurrencies has only evolved.

Taking a look at the previous market cycles highlights that market volatility and macroeconomic conditions have often affected the price of cryptocurrencies pulling the larger market down. While bear markets give rise to lay-offs and selloffs in the market, portraying doom for the space, it’s only the tip of the iceberg.

As the technology and the Web 3.0 narrative grows, a certain market maturation silently takes place on the side. Nonetheless, critics of the space have long argued that using digital currencies for online interaction gives users a financial motivation to take actions previously freed of commercial incentives. The same could financialize online services and lead to interactions becoming a business.

However, crypto geeks and supporters of the space argue that crypto critics fail to reflect the highly diverse nature of online services.

That said, a lot of traditional finance giants like Amazon, Meta, Google, HSBC, and IBM have also embraced crypto and blockchain. A majority of institutions cite consumer demands and the larger adoption of Web 3 as a reason behind turning towards the space.

Nonetheless, the adoption narrative has received a beating due to the larger bear market. In fact, the bearish blues have slowed down the larger crypto adoption, especially since newcomers are cautious about their entry into the space. However, the crypto crash hasn’t derailed the crypto or Web 3 adoption, if at all, it has delayed the pace of growth.

With Bitcoin Whales Accumulating, Can BTC Price Recover Above $20,000?

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin price fell below the psychological support at $20,000.
  • BTC’s price fall led to larger market sell-offs as the global market cap tested the $850 billion mark.
  • While minor accumulation trends still spark optimism in the market, positive momentum still lacks catalysts for a solid recovery.

As the second financial quarter of 2022 ends, the global crypto market remains largely bearish, with a majority of the top 100 cryptocurrencies trading in red on their daily charts.

The top cryptocurrency, bitcoin (BTC), recently governed further market losses as BTC’s price fell below the psychological support zone at the $20,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s price fall on 29 June can be considered a significant move in the coin’s trajectory as it wiped out the short-term gains made by the king coin throughout the week.

Now, the crucial question remains whether a massive pullback awaits the market or will minor setbacks lead the way to an eventual recovery?

Support At $20,000

Bitcoin retested the $19,000 level in Asian afternoon hours after central bankers renewed inflation warnings at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual forum on 28 June. At press time, the king crypto traded at $19,068, noting 4.62% daily losses and close to 8% losses on the weekly chart.

With the recent pullback in play, BTC is on track for a record 40% monthly decline. The traditional market also reacted negatively to Jerome Powell’s comments at the ECB meeting. Notably, the US equity market futures declined as S&P 500 futures lost 1.59% while Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%.

Bitcoin was down by over 55% this year alone and has fallen more than 70% from its all-time high of $68,990.90 made in November last year. Over the last month, the $20,000 mark has acted as a critical support for the top asset.

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BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: FXEmpire

After bitcoin’s price fell below the $22,800 support/resistance line, its price has moved in a rangebound trajectory with the $19,000 mark as support. The $19,000 level has acted as a solid long-term support.

Market analysts are of the opinion that the next price retracement could take BTC to the lower support level at the $12,000 mark. This, however, hasn’t deterred some cohorts from entering the market.

Bitcoin Whales and Shrimps Still Stacking

The buy the dip sentiment often echoes strongly when BTC price takes a big dip. However, during long-drawn periods of consolidation, participants are generally cautious about entering the market.

Recent Glassnode data highlighted a peculiar trend that Shrimps holding less than one BTC are stacking. Interestingly, whales or BTC holders with over 1K $BTC are also stacking up sats. On the other hand, miners were distributing.

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Source: Glassnode

Notably, small bitcoin holders or Shrimps have been adding to their balance at the most aggressive rate since March 2020. Shrimps are adding at 36.75K BTC/month, which is 0.2% of the circulating supply and 1.36x monthly issuance. This cohort now holds 1.12 million $BTC in total.

Whales are also adding to their balance aggressively, acquiring 140K $BTC/month directly from exchanges. On the other hand, bitcoin miners, who have been under immense income stress of late, are in distribution mode. Excluding Patoshi and Unknown miners (balance is flat), miners hold 65.2K $BTC in aggregate and are distributing 3K to 4K $BTC/month.

FXempire, Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC
Source: Glassnode

So, with Shrimps and Whales still accumulating, can BTC price see some gains? Well, for bitcoin’s price to recover, a price uptick above the crucial $19,500 and $22,000 support/resistance mark would be crucial in the short term.

However, with extreme macro-market conditions, it’s best to sit tight and watch the market unfold and, most importantly – Do Your Own Research (DYOR).

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch this Week: BTC, ETH, SOL, LTC, ETC

Key Insights:

  • The top cryptocurrency, bitcoin (BTC), was still below the crucial $20,000 support.
  • Volatile market conditions and BTC’s minor price upticks gave way to certain altcoin recoveries.
  • ETH, SOL, LTC, and ETC could be some altcoins to watch over the coming week closely.

While the global crypto market cap was still below the $1 trillion mark, there was some optimism in the market in the early trading hours of the Asian session on 20 June. The global crypto market cap stood at $899.00 billion, noting an 8.97% increase over the last day.

Bitcoin, the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization, traded at $20,379 noting a 9.81% rise in the 24-hour window. In tandem with BTC’s momentum, altcoins like ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and Ethereum Classic (ETC) enjoyed decent gains in the short-term window.

Seemingly, top altcoins such as ETH, SOL, LTC, and ETC could be worth watching in the coming week.

Bitcoin (BTC)

On 18 June, bitcoin’s price fell below $20,000, which has acted as a historic long-term support. The $20,000 mark was also the all-time high price of the last cycle when BTC made a new all-time high at that price range in the year 2017.

Bitcoin’s price drop came alongside the larger market correction, which resulted in most cryptocurrencies trading deep into the negative territory. Bitcoin’s price fell to the lowest price level since December 2020.

At press time, BTC traded at $20,379, noting a 9.81% rise in the 24-hour window. However, over the last 24 hours, the asset tested lower $18,926 levels before rebounding marginally above.

Last week, the US stock market started to show a minor recovery as the three major US stock indexes finished higher, marking an end to their longest weekly losing streaks in decades. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite were closed higher, making investors optimistic.

From a price perspective, BTC’s current short-term trajectory favored bulls as the price established above the crucial $20,000 psychological support.

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BTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

BTC’s recent pullback below the $20,000 mark disproved the market theory about bitcoin’s price not falling below its previous cycle’s highs. The last cycle ATH theory held true during the 2018 drawdown but has now been disproven for the current cycle.

With the short-term relative strength index (RSI) noting a significant recovery, the same presented a rise in buyers. Higher buying pressure in the market could fuel BTC for gains in the near term.

However, looking at technicals, it could be said that the upside would be limited for BTC unless bulls take control and a price action like July 2021 takes place.

All in all, the top cryptocurrency’s price action would be crucial to watch in the coming week and could direct the larger market’s trajectory.

Ethereum (ETH)

The king altcoin, ether (ETH), was one of the top gainers in the top 20 coins by market cap at press time, noting close to 20% gains on the daily chart. In the bigger picture though, ETH’s price chart didn’t look pretty.

While ETH was still down 76.49% from its all-time high, the coin managed to push itself above the crucial $1000 mark over the last 24 hours. ETH’s price made a parabolic recovery above the $1000 psychological price barrier.

FXempire, ETH, Crypto
ETH Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

As we advance, if bulls can push ETH’s price above the $1200 mark, a recovery could be confirmed from the lower lows. At press time, ETH’s price traded at $1,131.63 as the coin’s RSI presented a rise in buying pressure.

Solana (SOL)

In tandem with BTC’s price rise, altcoins, too, saw a decent price recovery on their short-term chart. Solana’s four-hour price chart presented the asset’s recovery above the $30 mark.

In the near term, if buyers are able to push SOL above the $35 mark and then above the $40 resistance, a recovery could be confirmed for the altcoin.

FXempire, SOL, Crypto
SOL Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

That said, the market looked largely volatile, and a price push in either direction could be seen in the short-term depending on BTC’s price action.

Litecoin (LTC) and Ethereum Classic (ETC)

In a bear market, when shorter periods of bullish price action take place, generally, coins with a high correlation with bitcoin do well. Both LTC and ETC have been highly correlated with the top cryptocurrency.
Additionally, the two coins often see lower volatility swings in a largely volatile market.

Litecoin’s price tested the $55 resistance, trading above the level briefly. At press time, the coin traded at $54.83, noting a 23.16% rise on the daily and a 9.21% rise on the weekly chart.

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LTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

In the near term, if LTC bulls can push the coin above the $60 mark, the same could fuel further gains. On the contrary, a pullback to the $50 level could be expected if bears take control.

ETC’s price action could take some interesting turns if BTC bulls support bitcoin’s positive momentum in the coming week.

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ETC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

In the short term, if buying pressure pushes ETC’s price above the $18.5 mark, further gains could be expected. Furthermore, a push to the $24 mark could reignite positive momentum for the coin.

While the downside for ETC looks limited, further downward momentum could bring the coin down to the $10 mark if another set of sell-offs follows.

‘Deadly Red Candle’ Engulfs Bitcoin: Here’s Why Price Fall Could Continue

Key Insights:

  • The bitcoin price closed with its 10th red candle in eleven weeks.
  • Bitcoin’s RSI ‘has never been more oversold on the weekly time frame than now.’
  • Despite the many macro valuation metrics continuing to flag oversold conditions, bitcoin price remained correlated with traditional markets. 

Bitcoin and digital assets have experienced yet another chaotic week of price losses. BTC’s price, after losing the open of $31,693 and trading down to a new multi-year low of close to $20,800.

In the larger financial landscape, macro headwinds remain a large-scale driver, with the latest US CPI print of 8.6% is higher than expected and another 2year-10year US Treasury Bond yield curve inversion occurring in the early hours on Monday.

BTC Highly Oversold

As bitcoin price closed with its 10th red candle in 11 weeks, the top cryptocurrency’s price hit as low as $20,816 on Bitstamp. The $20,816 mark is the lowest BTC’s price has gone since the week of December 2020.

Market analysts like Michaël van de Poppe said the recent BTC price candle was a ‘deadly red candle.’

The S&P 500 was down on the daily chart by nearly 3.9%. In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 4.7% ahead of critical comments from the US Federal Reserve on its anti-inflation policy.

Notably, a larger market sell-off that triggered before the weekend paced after Monday’s Wall Street opening bell as BTC and other digital assets fell in tandem with United States equities.

Even though the larger financial landscape looked bearish, the worst effect was seen on top crypto assets. At the time of writing, while bitcoin’s price had stabilized at the $22,449 mark, it was still down by 24.95% (close to 25%) on the weekly chart.

Renowned crypto trader and analyst Crypto Rover pointed out on Twitter that bitcoin ‘has never been more oversold on the weekly time frame than now.’

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, Bitcoin
Source: Crypto Rover Twitter

That said, looking at bitcoin’s daily RSI, it was evident that the metric saw a freefall from June 7 to June 14, trading in an extremely oversold zone. A major fall in RSI indicates selling pressure taking over the market.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin price
BTC Daily Price | Source: FXEmpire

Trading firm QCP Capital noted that the BTCUSD pair was ‘uncomfortably close’ to falling below the $20,000 mark, representing the all-time high from its previous halving cycle, which had never happened before.

Is the BTC Bottom In?

Glassnode’s weekly report highlighted on Monday that throughout last week, bitcoin network utility continued to languish, with macro metrics like the RVT entering the uncharted bearish territory.

Even though, until Monday, there was a continued accumulation across Shrimps (< 1BTC) and Whales (> 10K BTC) alike, price support was far from established. Additionally, despite the many macro valuation metrics continuing to flag oversold conditions, bitcoin price remained correlated with traditional markets, as BTC price and market cap continued to take a beating.

Moreover, the Glassnode report said that the market was ‘entering a phase-aligned with the deepest and darkest phases of previous bears.’ Notably, the market, on average, is barely above its cost basis, and even long-term holders were now realizing losses.

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BTC Liveliness | Source: Glassnode

Looking at the liveliness metric for BTC, it could be noted that the indicator has been in a structural downtrend since August 21. Liveliness helps understand the market preference for HODLing or distributional behavior by defining the balance between aggregate Coin Day Destruction and Coin Day Creation.

Looking at BTC, it could be said that it was firmly within a regime of aggregate Coin Day Creation as HODLing dominates. However, with only the HODLer class remaining, their demand-side remains too light to contain the current action sell-side.

There Could Be More Price Downside

Despite BTC’s price stabilizing near the $22,000 price range, many in the market anticipated further price fall for the top asset. CryptoQuant analysts highlighted that the ‘price reduction is not over yet’ looking at the SOPR metric for BTC.

The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator provides insight into macro market sentiment, profitability, and losses taken over a particular time frame. It reflects the degree of realized profit for all coins moved on-chain.

SOPR value less than 1 implies that the coins moved that day are, on average, selling at a loss or that the price sold is less than the price paid. Notably, a comparison of SOPR metrics with previous bottoms shows that the values are more than previous bottoms. This could be a signal that prices may fall further.

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BTC SOPR | Source: CryptoQuant

Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch this Week: BTC, AVAX, TRX, XMR, ETC

Key Insights:

  • The top cryptocurrency, bitcoin (BTC), fell below the crucial $29,000 support.
  • Volatile market conditions and BTC’s minor price upticks gave way to independent altcoin price recoveries.
  • AVAX, TRX, XMR, and ETC were some of the most popular altcoins over the last week.

The weekend saw Wall Street close sharply higher as signs of peaking inflation and consumer resiliency made investors optimistic that the Federal Reserve will be able to tighten monetary policy without tipping the economy into recession.

Over the last week, the stock market started to show a minor recovery flashing green signals as all three major US stock indexes brought a decisive end to their longest weekly losing streaks in decades.

Notably, S&P and the Nasdaq suffered seven consecutive weekly declines, while the blue-chip Dow’s eight-week selloff was its longest since 1932. While traditional markets turned their trajectory, BTC seemed largely decoupled, which didn’t act in the crypto’s favor.

Bitcoin was down by nearly 3% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite tech-heavy stock market index was up by close to 3%. That said, data from the United States Commerce Department presented that the personal savings rate fell to 4.4% in April to reach the lowest level since 2008.

Amid traditional markets rebounding, crypto traders worried that worsening global macroeconomic conditions could affect the popularity that risky assets enjoy.

While the crypto market still looked gloomy due to BTC’s rangebound momentum under the $30,000 mark, there was an anticipation of short-term gains for altcoins like AVAX, TRX, XMR, and ETC.

Here are the top five cryptocurrencies worth keeping an eye on over the coming week:

Bitcoin (BTC)

Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s fall below the crucial $29,000 support led to significant market losses. BTC has traded below the $31,000 resistance level for the most part of last week, as price action has stabilized in a tight range.

The rangebound price action points toward an increase in volatility, just like we saw in May beginning. Despite BTC’s negative returns over the last week, the larger market kept a distance from altcoins indicating a lower appetite for risk among traders. It has often been noted that BTC declines less than altcoins in bear market conditions due to its lower risk profile.

Nonetheless, BTC/USD was primed to end the month down around 22%. For now, BTC has the next lower support at $25,000, and if prices fall further, the 200-week moving average at $22,061 could stabilize price action.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
BTC Daily Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Relative strength index (RSI) on BTC’s weekly chart was the most oversold since March 2020. As the month-end approached, it was noticeable that May 2022 was the second-worst May in Bitcoin’s history, according to data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, ETC
Source: Coinglass

Avalanche (AVAX)

The recent BTC gains in the shorter time frame provided some momentum to AVAX’s price after the altcoin’s fall to the $23 zone. Ethereum killer Avalanche was one of the hardest-hit coins in the top ten cryptos by market cap over the last week; however, market anticipation for the coin’s recovery was high.

Avalanche’s native token, AVAX, was down by close to 20% over the last week despite the 13% gains presented on Saturday. At the time of writing, AVAX traded at $25.42, noting merely 1% gains on the daily chart.

FXempire, AVAX, Crypto
AVAX Daily Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

For AVAX’s price to gain some market momentum, the first resistance lies at the $27 mark, which could be critical to the coin’s bullish trajectory. Once the $27 mark is breached, AVAX could hit the $35 resistance if enough market pressure is built by bulls.

Tron (TRX)

As highlighted in a previous FXEmpire article, Tron’s TRX token has been one of the best performing top projects in terms of price gains over the last month. Notably, every non-stablecoin cryptocurrency in the top ten by market capitalization collapsed by more than 15% in the month-to-date, while TRX was up nearly 30%.

That said, TRX’s price has risen 7% year-to-date, while BTC was down almost 38% in 2022, and ETH’s price has slumped by nearly 50%. However, owing to BTC’s negative momentum, at the time of writing, TRX traded at $0.07972, noting a 2.59% decline over the last 24-hours.

FXempire, TRX, Crypto
TRX Daily Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Nonetheless, TRX was still up by 3.46% on the weekly. TRX’s exciting trajectory and ecosystem-centric developments could play a key role in the coin’s uptrend going forward.

Monero (XMR)

Privacy tokens have often turned bullish in response to larger market sell-offs. Monero, at press time, traded at $183.01, noting 2.78% daily gains and 1.52% gains on the weekly chart. The coin had recovered substantially from the May-mid lows of under $170.

XMR has held the psychological support at $175, which aided the coin’s rise over the last couple of days. While RSI for XMR had recovered from the oversold zone and highlighted that buyers were gaining momentum.

FXempire, XMR, Crypto
XMR Price | Source: FXEmpire

RSI’s slight uptrend on XMR’s daily chart reinforced positive market momentum. However, sellers still dominated buyers.

In the short term, a recovery above the $200 resistance would be crucial for XMR. However, if the market turns bearish again, XMR could fall back to the $145 zone.

Ethereum Classic (ETC)

As reported earlier by FXEmpire, ETC saw four consecutive green daily candles from 21 May to 24 May, owing to the substantial accumulation during the weekend. However, with a market downturn on May 25 and 26, ETC’s price fell to as low as $20.

Nonetheless, ETC bulls pushed the coin from around the $20 price range to a weekly high of $25.69. ETC noted considerable resistance around the psychological resistance at the $25 mark.

The altcoin traded at $23.07, noting 1.11% daily and 11.46% weekly gains despite the larger market’s bearish momentum.

FXempire, ETC, Crypto
ETC Price | Source: FXEmpire

Notably, the $25 price range has acted as a substantial support range for ETC even in the past. A push from bulls above the critical resistance at $25 in the near term could aid some positive momentum to the token’s price.

BTC Price Dips Below $28,000 – Bitcoin On Chain Analysis May 27

Key Insights:

  • BTC price took a dip below $28,000 in the later hours of May 26.
  • The crypto market sentiment reached ‘extreme fear’ yet again.
  • Analysts expect further price downside as selling pressure mounts.

On Thursday, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price briefly fell below the crucial $29,000 support level in European trading hours. While the top cryptocurrency by market cap quickly recovered above the psychological resistance, its fall to the $28,100 mark set a bearish tone for other major cryptocurrencies.

Notably, the global crypto market cap, in tandem with BTC’s price dip, fell to the $1.23 trillion mark noting a 4.38% decrease over the last day at press time. BTC’s drop to the $28,000 mark followed a relatively positive market response to Wednesday’s release of minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting held on May 3-4.

The S&P 500 gained close to 1% in the traditional markets, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up by around 1.90% over the last day.

So, as bearish pressure intensified in the cryptocurrency market, where could the top coin be headed?

BTC Price Drops to $28,000

After facing a solid resistance at the $30,300 mark, bitcoin price registered a downtick amid higher sell-side pressure. After a move below the $29,800 and $29,500 levels, bitcoin’s fall to the $28,000 mark was something the market expected.

BTC’s price declined below the 21 simple moving average around the $29,000 mark. A fall below the key $29,000 barrier gave way to bears, and a further decline to the $28,250 support zone was seen on Thursday.

FXempire, BTC Price, Crypto, Bitcoin
BTC Daily Price Chart | Source: FXEmpire

At the time of writing, despite BTC’s recovery above the $29,000 mark, a critical bearish trend line had formed at the $29,500 resistance. A move above the $29,500 resistance and the $30,000 mark could be essential to BTC’s recovery over the weekend if bulls can push prices up.

For now, if further price decline continues, major support at $28,500 could aid some relief to bulls. However, a daily close below the $28,500 could mark another price dip for the top crypto.

BTC Longs Liquidated

Data from Coinglass highlighted that over $350 million worth of long and short positions were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market over the last day as the crypto market cap slid to the $1.2 trillion mark.

FXempire, Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC price, BTC
Market liquidations | Source: Coinglass

The recent price drop also gave way to larger exchange inflows as selling pressure continued to rise. Furthermore, on-chain data presented that bigger players were offloading their BTC amid the recent meltdown.

Data from Santiment highlighted that whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC had redistributed more than 30,000 BTC, worth around $870 million, over the last day. Additionally, over 10,000 BTC was sent to exchanges as price decline pushed exchange inflows indicative of a larger bearish market tone.

That said, data from In/Out of the Money Around Price highlighted how the $29,190 and $30,070, where 1.46 million addresses purchased over 900,000 BTC, could act as a massive supply barrier. BTC’s fall under the $29,190 mark has added to further pressure in the market. However, a short-term recovery above this level could push prices ahead.

If bitcoin reclaims the upper support zone at the $30,070 mark, it may have a decent chance of rebounding. However, considering the rangebound price movement and lower lows made on a shorter time frame by BTC’s price, a revisit to the low at $25,370 or even $21,000 could be expected.

More Volatility to Come?

Looking at BTC’s estimated leverage ratio, it could be said that more volatility could push the market an extra mile in either direction. The estimated leverage ratio represents the open interest divided by the coins in circulation. It gives the average leverage used in the market.

When the estimated leverage ratio is high, more and more volatility is coming into the market, and vice versa.

FXempire, Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC price
Source: CryptoQuant

Cryptoquant analysts highlighted that the recent price fall looked similar to the December 2021 dip when the price fell to $42,00. On both occasions, the metric moved down when we saw the price spike and then recovered in the consolidation period that followed the impulse.

In December last year, Bitcoin went to $52,000 and then continued the downtrend. This time too if BTC witnessed an upswing in the near term a retest of the $35,000 mark could be expected however after that price could fall back to the $22,000 zone.

All in all, one thing looks certain that high volatility could rule the market in the days to come as BTC’s price continues to maintain the lower rangebound momentum.

How Can Inflation Affect Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum?

Key Insights:

  • Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have often been called an excellent inflation hedge.
  •  However, USD’s purchase power against BTC has been in an uptrend for the most part of this year.
  • Over the last two quarters, amid largely bearish market conditions, socio-political issues have played a key role in establishing BTC’s price trajectory. 

    Cryptocurrencies as investments are attractive for several reasons. For some, cryptocurrencies are a quick way to earn money as they chant ‘wen Lambo,’ while for others, it’s the trust in blockchain technology or a certain project. For some, getting into cryptos could be as basic as jumping on the hype train, primarily due to FOMO.

    All that aside, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have often been called an excellent inflation hedge and a store of value. So, as inflation continues to rise, where do cryptocurrencies and inflation cross paths?

    What is Inflation?

    Inflation is when the decreasing value of a currency, like the US dollar, increases the price of goods and services over time, thus helping the economy grow. However, unlike fiat currencies, cryptos can’t be manipulated to the same extent by changing interest rates, or so they said.

    In early May, bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) rallied on the news of interest hike by FEDs, rising about 3.5% and 1.2%, respectively. Soaring inflation has been one driver of broad losses across the crypto markets. The United States Federal Reserve announced a 0.5% hike in interest rates, the highest hike ever in interest rates in the last two decades.

    While cryptocurrencies saw short-term price spikes after the news of the interest hike, the price gains couldn’t sustain. Many analysts, however, still believe that cryptocurrencies have been behaving in line with equities, similar to a big tech stock.

    Bitcoin – an inflation hedge?

    In the post-pandemic era, USD’s buying power against BTC fell further, taking a significant dip in March 2020, followed by another drop towards the end of 2020, as seen above. Additionally, the USD’s value has further dipped due to the government’s continuous money printing.

    FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin
    United States Dollar purchase power against BTC | Source: Google

    Over the last 50 years, inflation has already reduced the value of the USD by 85%, which strengthened BTC’s narrative as an excellent alternative to fiat money. However, in November 2021, after making an all-time high of $69,000, bitcoin’s price began its downtrend. Around the same time, USD purchase power against BTC started to rise, appreciating in November-end 2021 and then again in March 2022.

    Notably, USD’s purchase power against BTC has been in an uptrend for the most part of this year. The same puts bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative at risk. Additionally, constant issues surrounding market volatility and the high price of a single BTC unit pose friction to investors, especially newcomers.

    While investment alternatives like bitcoin mining-backed ETFs and BTC ETPs have offered decent exposure to investors of all sorts, the constant volatility continues to haunt BTC traders and investors and newcomers in the market.

    Cryptocurrencies and inflation

    For the most part of bitcoin’s existence, BTC prices haven’t reacted negatively to policy uncertainty shocks, partly consistent with the notion of Bitcoin’s independence from government authorities. However, amid largely bearish market conditions, socio-political issues have played a key role in establishing BTC’s price trajectory over the last two quarters.

    Furthermore, BTC’s rising correlation with the two major indices—the S&P 500 and Nasdaq- could play a S&P 500 and Nasdaq could play spoilsport in the coin’s inflation hedge narrative as the market matures.

    Bitcoin’s price was down 57.02% from its all-time high price of $69,000, which also hampered the top coin’s narrative as a store of value. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $29,504.67, close to the $30,000 psychological support/resistance level.

    The coin has maintained a rangebound trajectory between the $31,500 and $28,380 mark since May 10.

    FXempire, bitcoin, Crypto, BTC
    BTC Price | Source: FXEmpire

    For now, with the larger market tilting more towards bearish, whether BTC could outperform traditional assets and fiat currency still remains a crucial question. Many analysts are of the opinion that the maturing bitcoin and cryptocurrency market has given way to diminishing ROIs over the years.

The Why and How of Investing In a Crypto Bear Market

Key Insights:

  • When the markets are experiencing sustained declines they’re called bear markets.
  • With Bitcoin and the global crypto market cap down by over 50% from its all-time high. 
  • This article looks at the art of investing in a bear market. 

Bear markets might be stressful for investors but they can be seen as good investment opportunities to buy in at lower prices.

In this article, you will learn what exactly defines a bear market, how you can prepare for it, and how you can profit from it.

While traders and investors dread the long and cold bear markets as though they’re the grim reaper, bear markets aren’t as bad. Sometimes, a bear market could provide decent opportunities to enter the market with lower risks, higher returns, and ‘dip-buying’ opportunities.

Nonetheless, bear markets give rise to notoriously volatile price actions and extreme losses in some cases, so without proper research, one could easily get Rekt during these times. This article will deep dive into the what, how, when, and why of crypto bear markets.

What is a bear market?

In simple terms, a bear market is when the prices of the prime assets of a sector or multiple sectors continue to decline for a considerable amount of time. For traditional as well as cryptocurrency markets, bear markets occur when the market as a whole experiences at least a 20% drop from recent highs.

A bear market can be identified by looking at the fall of the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite or bitcoin price for cryptos. Owing to the fall in the price of the top assets, small-cap and mid-cap assets also experience bearish price losses due to generally high price correlation.

During bear markets, supply is greater than demand, confidence is low, and prices are on a downtrend. Bear markets can be tricky for inexperienced or new traders. Additionally, it’s relatively difficult to predict when the end of a bear market or to find the exact price bottom to ‘buy the dip.’

Now comes the crucial question, are we in a bear market?

Are bears leading the market?

The global crypto market capitalization was down by almost 60% from its all-time high of $3 trillion as it stood at $1.25 trillion at press time. The top cryptocurrency by market cap, bitcoin (BTC), was down by 56% from its all-time high made in November last year.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
BTC price ATH | Source: FXEmpire

While ether (ETH), the top altcoin, was down by 58% from its all-time high price of $4,847. Thus, it seemed like cryptocurrency holders were, in fact, in a full-blown bear market. Additionally, the rangebound movement of the larger crypto market cap and most top coins’ prices confirmed the bear market doubts.

Notably, the global crypto market was experiencing double-digit percentage losses, with BTC dipping to as low as $25,000 briefly on 12 May for the first time since July 2021. The bearish market sentiment, lower social volumes, and the fall of the Terra ecosystem have many investors understandably worried.

This, however, doesn’t mean that you cannot function in a bear market. After all, the crypto market never stops or sleeps. So, how and why should you invest in a crypto bear market?

Why invest in bear markets?

Bear markets can undoubtedly be scary times for newcomers and even older market players, as nobody enjoys watching the value of their portfolios go down. On the other hand, bear markets can provide opportunities to put money to work for the long run while assets are trading at a discount.

Usually, newcomers enter the market on social hype or out of FOMO (fear of missing out); however, bear markets are actually good opportunities for investors to enter the market as most assets trade at a discount.

Additionally, bear markets provide a good opportunity for shorting assets as prices see large price drops. However, since the crypto markets are highly volatile, shorting assets is something experienced traders take up. While shorting coins could be profitable, it comes with its set of risks.

How to invest in a crypto bear market?

While there are no instant tips or quick strategies for surviving in a crypto bear market, analysts and traders often recommend some strategies. For instance, portfolio diversification can help reduce investment risk by spreading your capital among different assets during a bearish wave.

That said, thinking long-term would always help navigate through bear markets. Many new investors make the mistake of exiting early due to short-term losses, which could be a bad way to go about bearish market swings.

Lastly, trying to always catch the bottom could be futile in a market as volatile as the crypto space. Sometimes, a bear market ends as soon as the bottom has been reached. In an aim to catch the bottom or buy the final dip, one may end up investing at a higher price when assets start to recover.

That said, in the end, it is undeniable that bear markets are slow and unpredictable and are usually influenced by many external factors such as economic growth, investor psychology, and world news or events.

While advice and recommendation about how to invest in bear markets are aplenty, it’s always crucial to DYOR (do your own research).

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – May 17

Key Insights:

  • The global crypto market cap is back above the $1.3trillion mark. 
  • BTC’s price has tested the $30,300 resistance. 
  • Both bullish and bearish news is driving market volatility higher.

 The larger cryptocurrency market has been rangebound for most of this month, as the global crypto market cap oscillated between the $1.2 trillion low and $1.34 trillion. 

Data from Coin Market Cap top 100 suggested that Kadena (KDA) jumped by 14.70%, and Algorand (ALGO) saw 11% daily gains leading market the crypto majors. 

It has been an eventful 24 hours for the crypto market, with BTC jumping back above the $30,000 mark and several altcoins in the top 100 making gains. Sustained gains, however, still remain in question as the market continues to be volatile. 

BTC risks falling to $20,000

According to some market experts, BTC’s chances of revisiting the lower levels are still high. The Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) recently revealed that it had sold almost all of its BTC reserves during last week’s Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD meltdown. The higher amount of circulation BTC in the market added to price volatility. 

Famous trader Phoenix said in a recent Twitter post that if bitcoin’s price falls below the $29,494 mark, the next price range to watch would be $21,800-23,800. 

As highlighted in an FXEmpire article earlier this morning, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell from 10/100 to 8/100, its lowest level since March 14, 2020. 

The early-week BTC losses witnessed this week could be blamed on global investors in the equity markets and the crypto market responding to dire economic data from China.

Despite short-term price gains, weak technical signals and low buying pressure left bitcoin’s price in a rangebound movement. That said, in the traditional market, weak stats coupled with the threat of a recession left the NASDAQ 100 down 1.20%.

Even though Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s assurances on the rate hike front have delivered support, the same has failed to change the larger economic outlook. Furthermore, the correlation between bitcoin and the NASDAQ strengthened marginally on Monday.

On a one-day chart, BTC’s price made some positive progress; however, high gains didn’t seem to be on bitcoin’s cards as RSI highlighted high selling pressure in the market. 

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BTC 1-day price | Source: FXEmpire

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that the $20,000 zone is an area of interest should current levels fail to hold and buyers not materialize.

LUNA and UST Debacle Continues

The South Korean Conservative Party has requested a parliamentary hearing on the dramatic fall of Terra’s LUNA and its algorithmic stablecoin UST. 

On Tuesday, the South Korean National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee summoned Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon for a parliamentary hearing regarding the issue. The committee’s representative, People’s Power’s Yoon Chang-Hyeon, said,

“There is a part that raises questions about the behavior of exchanges during the crash. Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax stopped trading on May 10, Bithumb on May 11 stopped trading daily, but Upbit did not stop trading until May 13.”

However, amid the negative commentary, TerraUSD’s price managed to register 11.83% gains trading at $0.1216 at the time of writing. 

High Volatility Sends Altcoin Prices Up

A recent Santiment report highlighted that for those ‘expecting less volatility for crypto markets in the first weeks of May after the rocky first four months of 2022, a continued pattern of downswings shook even crypto’s optimistic traders to their cores.’

After the second FOMC meeting that resulted in the US Fed increasing interest rates by another 0.5%, crypto markets showed some life for 24 hours. At press time, some of the top gainers were altcoins like Elrond (EGLD), Kava (KAVA), Aave (AAVE), and Kadena (KDA)

Algorand (ALGO) also gained close to 7.82% as the token traded at $0.49 at the time of writing. On the other hand, BAYC’s ApeCoin (APE) also noted 7% gains, trading at $8.73. 

Interestingly, Litecoin’s price saw a bounce of over 6% in the last 24-hours as it traded at $70.83. 

One of the most interesting news came from China, as bitcoin mining was back in the news this week, with new data showing China as the second-largest bitcoin mining nation, despite an outright ban.

A recent, FXEmpire article also highlighted that the world’s largest digital currency asset manager, Grayscale, confirmed that it would be bringing its first European ETF called the Grayscale Future of Finance UCITS ETF (GFOF).

Thus, with both bullish and bearish developments taking place in the crypto market, volatility could continue to push BTC and the global crypto market’s boat in the near term. 

5 Coins to Watch Closely This Week: BTC, XRP, SOL, XMR, MKR

Key Insights:

  • BTC’s price has established the $30,000 mark as support again.
  • The global cryptocurrency market cap is back above the $1.3 trillion mark.
  • Altcoins like XRP, SOL, XMR, and MKR could be some tokens to watch out for this week.

The last week brought bearish waves for the larger crypto market, as the king coin’s price slid by almost 30% in the previous ten days to visit the near $25,000 zone for the first time since late 2020.

The BTC-induced losses and the fall of Terra’s LUNA and UST pulled the global crypto market cap down to $1.29 trillion at the time of writing.

However, towards the end of last week, bitcoin’s price started to recover from the $26,000 mark making its way above the $30,000 zone. As BTC trades just under the $30,000 psychological barrier, the current market sentiment remains in ‘extreme fear.’

That said, traditional assets were down too, S&P 500 was down 17% this year, and the Nasdaq was off 27% since January. These losses present the pain for the many investors who took bigger gambles on risky assets.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
Source: Alternative

Notably, more than $500 billion evaporated from the cryptocurrency market over the last week as the market cap slipped to a low of $1.2 trillion. Data from the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) suggested that cryptocurrencies delivered negative returns of about 33.9% over the last month.

Nonetheless, at press time, with bitcoin price’s short-term recovery above the $28,500 resistance, most altcoins traded in green, as highlighted in FXEmpire Weekend Wrap. So, as a short-term recovery takes off, let us look at some of the top coins to watch closely over the coming week.

Bitcoin (BTC)

On May 12, the Bitcoin market sold off to $25,400 and within 6% of the realized price ($23,960), as highlighted by Glassnode data. The realized price represents the average cost basis of all BTC and was last visited, only briefly, in March 2020.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
Source: Glassnode

The realized price has historically been strong support for bitcoin, and a rebound from the same could lead to short-term gains. However, analysts believe that the price isn’t expected to see parabolic gains soon.

Bitcoin’s price fell to as low as $25,800 over the last week, but pressure from bulls ensured a short-term recovery back to the sub-$29,000 zone. At the time of writing, the top cryptocurrency traded at $30,910, noting a 4.77% price rise over the last day.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
BTC Price | Source: FXEmpire

BTC’s recovery above the $28,200 support on May 13 pushed the top asset towards higher highs in the following couple of days. If bulls can ride out the sell-side pressure in the coming days and BTC’s price can settle above the $32,500 mark, the same can provide positive market momentum.

XRP

XRP rallied by close to 9% on Friday, recovering from a 7.44% loss the altcoin recorded on Thursday. After crossing the $0.380 mark, the altcoin saw considerable upside, which came amidst Friday’s SEC v Ripple court date, as reported by FXEmpire earlier.

While long-term key technical indicators for XRP continued to remain bearish, at the time of writing, XRP’s price rallied on the back of BTC’s freshly gained momentum. Additionally, the progress in the SEC vs Ripple case has fueled a bullish sentiment among XRP investors.

At press time, XRP traded at $0.4409, noting 4.20% daily gains, however, the altcoin was still down by 23.27% on the weekly charts.

FXempire, XRP, Crypto
XRP Price | Source: FXEmpire

XRP’s recovery above the $0.45 mark can further aid bullish momentum. In the short term, if bulls can push prices above the $0.48 mark, prices can see upside. However, volatility would continue to rule the market.

Solana (SOL)

Amid the larger market bounce, Solana gained over 18% in market value in the last 24 hours and traded at $58.68. SOL experienced a brutal crash as its price hit a low of $37 on May 12.

Over the last four days, SOL’s price has made higher lows presenting a bullish trajectory; however, trade volumes maintained low as investors remained cautious. The altcoin’s recovery above the $44 mark aided the positive price momentum.

Going forward, a recovery above the $62 mark would be key to SOL’s price recovery.

FXempire, SOL, Crypto
SOL Price | Source: FXEmpire

The sudden in buying pressure helped SOL regain the psychological $50 level as support. Buying pressure from bulls as the market embarks on a short-term recovery could push the token higher as technical indicators turn bullish.

Monero (XMR)

Privacy tokens have often turned bullish in response to larger market sell-offs. Monero, at press time, traded at $171.28 noting 11.25% daily gains, however, it was still down by 21.33% on the weekly chart.

XMR has held the psychological support at $145, which aided the coin’s rise over the last couple of days. While RSI for XMR had recovered from the oversold zone and highlighted that buyers were gaining momentum.

FXempire, XMR, Crypto
XMR Price | Source: FXEmpire

Even though RSI’s uptrend reinforced positive market momentum, sellers still dominated buyers. In the short term, a recovery above the $200 resistance would be crucial for XMR. If the market turns bearish again, XMR could fall back to the $145 zone.

Maker (MKR)

Defi token MKR was one of the top performing altcoins last week, as highlighted in a FXEmpire article. Amid high sell pressure in the larger market Maker Protocol’s MKR token recovered from the last week’s losses as the price pushed above the $1500 mark.

At press time, MKR traded at $1,550.23, noting 0.65% daily losses. MKR had reversed the losses made in the first week of May. With MKR’s recovery above the $1500 mark, sell-side pressure could ease in, giving way to short-term losses.

FXempire, MKR, Crypto, Maker
MKR Price | Source: FXEmpire

In the short term, if bulls can push MKR’s price above the $1650 level, the same could aid MKR’s positive price momentum. However, a bearish downturn could push the price back to the lower $1400 support.

Weekend Market Wrap: Top Updates From the Cryptocurrency Market

Key Insights:

  • With BTC’s price above the $30,000 mark, market confidence seemed to return.
  • Most of the top altcoins were trading in the green on a renewed market momentum.
  • The recent short-term gains seem to be temporary as the market could see further downside.

Most cryptocurrencies traded higher as Sunday approached with a wind of fresh air for crypto investors. While it wasn’t a full-blown recovery, markets headed towards gains, as bearish sentiment waned.

Over the last six months, the cryptocurrency market reached as high as $3 trillion and dropped to as low as $1.2 trillion. In the last half a year, the cryptocurrency market cap has lost $1.9 trillion; these losses are bigger than those witnessed during the 2007’s subprime mortgage market crisis.

The high losses and higher trading volumes have propelled fears of crypto market risk spilling over across traditional markets hurting stocks and bonds. The same also indicates the increased correlation in the high-risk and traditional finance markets.

A return of short-term buyers, as the cryptocurrency market cap inches close to the $1.5 trillion mark, shows optimism in the market. However, the return of traders isn’t indicative of larger market recovery as technicals present limited upside in the short term.

Nonetheless, with the global crypto market cap returning to the $1.30 trillion mark at press time, noting a 4.73% increase over the last day, the same pointed towards a short-term recovery.

So, let us take a quick look at how the market reacted over the last week and where it could go, moving forward.

Bitcoin staging a recovery?

The bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to the lows last seen in late 2020, amid the COVID-19 crisis. Recently, after a storm of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the scaling back of its massive $9 trillion balance sheet, and a huge $18 billion stablecoin meltdown, the same brought down the larger crypto market cap and the top crypto asset.

Bitcoin’s price fell to as low as $25,800, but pressure from bulls ensured a short-term recovery back to the sub-$29,000 zone. At the time of writing, the top cryptocurrency, traded at $30,284, noting a 4.11% price rise, over the last day.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin
BTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

While the BTC gains instilled some confidence in the market participants, analysts believed that market gains wouldn’t sustain for long with volatility still high. Data analytics site, Glassnode, tweeted that Bitcoin dropped below $30,000, as inflation fears and the Fed’s readiness for “short-term pain” rattled markets.

Notably, BTC was down by 58% from its all-time high price, while SPX was down by 18%, NDX was down by 30%, and US bonds have fallen by 15% from their ATH.

Top market movers

Despite the larger bearish blues, some altcoins took advantage of BTC’s short-term gains as their prices took a bullish turn. At the time of writing, with BTC back above the psychological $30,000 mark, most of the top altcoins like ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, and AVAX were trading in the green on their daily charts.

Ethereum traded at $2,079.78, noting 5.61% daily gains, while BNB was up by almost 9%, in the last 24-hours. Fantom’s price performance has also been decent in the last week. FTM traded at $0.3654, noting 19.87% gains, over the last day.

Privacy tokens like ZEC and XMR were up by 21.32% and 17% in the last 24-hours. Of late, privacy tokens have often charted bullish price trajectories when the larger crypto market is down.

That said, DeFi token MKR was one of the top gainers of the last week. At the time of writing, MKR traded at $1,575.27, noting 10.28% daily and 30.90% weekly gains. MKR had reversed the losses made in the first week of May.

FXempire, MKR, Crypto, maker
MKR Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Top news from the crypto verse

A positive development in the crypto space came from Nigeria, where the nation’s Securities and Exchange Commission has released new rules to guide the issuance, custody, and exchange of digital assets and classify them as securities.

In other news, Chile was still considering whether to move forward with a central bank digital currency (CBDC), despite the earlier disclosed plans to have a proposal ready by early this year.

That said, the Terra ecosystem fall still stood as one of the top stories, in the last week. Earlier today, an FXEmpire article highlighted how Binance’s Changpeng “CZ” Zhao cleared the exchange’s name as rumors about Binance investing in Terra surfaced on crypto Twitter. CZ also questioned the idea of hard forking the Terra blockchain to revive the LUNA and UST ecosystems.

As De-risking Continues, Is Bitcoin Price Eyeing the $28,000 level?

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin’s price has retested the lower $30,000 zone after July 2021.
  • BTC inflows from private wallets are presenting a rise in selling pressure.
  • Institutional investors are being cautious amid falling BTC prices.

As the global crypto market cap slid under the $1.5 trillion mark standing at $1.42 trillion at the time of writing, there was a 10% drop in the value of the total cryptocurrency market over the last day. The market’s top asset, bitcoin (BTC), had fallen by 10% in the previous 24-hours as market-wide-sell offs intensified.

Fear Overtaking Bitcoin Holders

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the more significant sentiment among crypto investors for the most part of this year has been ‘fear’ and ‘extreme fear.’ Notably, bitcoin inflows from private wallets accounted for 40% of total inflows across exchanges. Higher exchange inflows are indicative of a rise in selling pressure.

Seemingly, a crypto winter had arrived as analysts made predictions of a prolonged period of falling prices and negative market sentiment over the coming days.

Bitcoin had plunged to its lowest level since July 2021 as the crypto’s price fell in tandem with slumping U.S. equity markets. The larger market fall could be due to concerns about the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening path.

Notably, on Monday S&P 500 hit its lowest since April 2021. The declines were led by subsequent declines in mega-cap growth shares. Even Nasdaq was down by more than 3%, while Apple shares fell by over 3% and were the biggest weight on the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

At the time of writing, bitcoin had dropped to as low as $31,201.59 noting a 9.04% fall in 24-hours and an 18.62% fall over the last week. As BTC traded just above the crucial $29,300 resistance, a fall below the same seemed inevitable, looking at the rise in selling pressure.

FXempire, Bitcoin, Crypto, BTC
BTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Institutional investors de-risking

Bitcoin’s price dropped by almost 25% in the month of May and was down by nearly 55% from its all-time high price of $69,000 in November last year. Analysts predict a crypto winter for investors in early 2018; when a crypto winter set in, Bitcoin price saw an 85% pullback.

Notably, macro-bearish trends had also started to show up for BTC. Analyst, Lark Davis, pointed out that Bitcoin recently closed its sixth consecutive red candle on a weekly chart. The last time a similar trend occurred was in 2014, ahead of a Bitcoin bear market.

Crypto Quant data presented that Coinbase price premium was trading negative, indicating selling by institutional investors.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

The Coinbase Price Premium has started trading negative around May 2 on the hourly chart. Institutional investors and large investors often use Coinbase Pro to buy and trade bitcoin, and a negative price premium indicates that selling pressure might be coming from these types of investors.

The larger market trend indicates that the financial markets are currently trading risk-off. Analysts expect investors from the traditional finance sector to reduce exposure to bitcoin and other risky assets in such a situation.

The bearish sentiment was further seen in BTC long liquidations. There were over $724 million long liquidations in the market on May 9. This day resulted in the largest number of long liquidations this year.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin
Source: CoinGlass

For now, looking at BTC’s price action, alongside bearish investor sentiment, a revisit to the lower support zones could be expected in the near future.

5 Coins to Watch Closely This Week: BTC, ETH, ALGO, TRX, XMR

 Key Insights:

– BTC’s price has made lower lows for over five days.
– The global cryptocurrency market cap had fallen to the $1.58 trillion mark.
– Altcoins like Algorand, Tron, and Monero could be some tokens to watch out for this week.

The last week brought bearish waves for the broader crypto market, with bitcoin (BTC) sliding by almost 15% to visit the near $34,000 zone for the first time since late January. The BTC-induced losses pulled the global crypto market cap down by nearly 14%, bringing it to $1.58 trillion at the time of writing.

While the crypto market’s outlook was grim, the traditional markets didn’t glimmer either. Notably, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also continued declining for five straight weeks.

A significant correlation in bitcoin’s price with United States equity markets has resulted in BTC price continuing the downtrend. That said, a larger market downtrend for indices, stocks, and cryptocurrencies indicated that market participants were being cautious of their exposure to risky assets.

So, as another bear market takes off, let us look at some of the top coins to watch closely over the coming week.

Bitcoin (BTC)

On May 9, the king coin of the crypto market, BTC, slid to as low as $33,710 on some exchanges. BTC’s price last reached $33,000 at the end of January this year.

During the past couple months, bitcoin mainly had traded between $35,000 and $46,000. As BTC breaks the lower trendline with the price falling further downwards the same could indicate a new bearish trend taking over the market.

At the time of writing, a majority of indicators were leaning towards the bearish side with bitcoin’s price breaking below the three-month rising trend line. Notably, the top coin was unable to hold the $34,500 support. In the near future, if the price falls below $32,900, the same would mark a new low for BTC.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto
BTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

That said, if bears overpower at the $34,300 level, the same could lead to further price decline pulling BTC down to $32,900. As highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez, BTC can face trouble reclaiming $35,570 as support, and $38,550 remains the most significant resistance level for $BTC.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum’s price has been largely correlated to BTC over the last few days as the top two coins’ price trajectory moves more or less in tandem. Data from IntoTheBlock presented that the ETH-BTC correlation remained high.

FXempire, ETH, Crypto
Source: Into The Block

In terms of price, ETH traded at $2,563.39 at press time, noting 4.61% daily and 7.24% weekly gains. A fall below the $2510 mark which has acted as a strong support throughout this year, could result in further losses for the top altcoins.

FXempire, eth, Crypto
ETH Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Notably, the relative strength index (RSI) for ETH had been in a larger downtrend since April 6 as ETH prices made lower lows since then. At press time, RSI had entered the oversold zone, and recovery from the same in the near term could be a reversal signal. However, it looks like in the short-term, ETH could follow BTC.

Algorand (ALGO)

As highlighted in a recent article, Algorand’s total value locked (TVL) increased by 19.4% to $187.36 million in the last week. Notably, increased demand for ALGO as a staking crypto provided the price uptick over the last week.

Early last week, Algorand was in the news as FIFA announced Algorand as an official partner ahead of this year’s FIFA World Cup in Qatar. The coin’s price saw a decent price push as the announcement floated on media.

At press time, ALGO traded at $0.7292, noting a 4.69% loss on the daily chart, however, the coin was still up by 23.66% on the weekly window.

FXempire, Algorand, Crypto
ALGO Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

If bulls can hold ALGO price above the 20-day EMA at $0.69 then ALGO’s price could see some decent gains in the coming days. indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing.

Furthermore, the coin’s rise above $1.10 in the near term could see the token rally to $1.25 ensuring gains for ALGO holders.

Tron (TRX)

AS highlighted in a recent FXEmpire article, Tron’s ecosystem-centric updates have ensured a bullish narrative for TRX even as the larger crypto market falls in heavy losses. Tron’s algorithmic stablecoin USDD went live last week and has since been listed on several platforms for decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.

On Saturday, after Tron founder Justin Sun revealed that the team behind the project had purchased 504,600,250 TRX at an average price of 0.07727 per unit, the same led to TRX’s price rise.

Notably, TRX’s price has rallied in tandem with the ecosystem-centric announcements. TRX’s price jumped by almost 47% since May 1 amid heightened positive social sentiment for the ecosystem and its native token.

FXempire, TRX, Crypto
TRX Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

At the time of writing, TRX traded at $0.09067, noting 7.77% daily and 32.64% weekly gains. TRX’s RSI was in the overbought zone as buying pressure dominated TRX’s market.

Monero (XMR)

With the larger market falling, privacy tokens seem to be back on track for some gains. Monero, at press time, traded at $216.56, noting 3.86% daily gains and 2.57% weekly gains despite the larger market bearish momentum.

XMR has held the psychological support at $200, which aided the coin’s rise over the last couple of days. While RSI for XMR presented that seller dominated buyers, RSI’s uptrend reinforced positive market momentum.

FXempire, XMR, Crypto
XMR Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

In the short term, if bulls can keep price above the $220 mark, which is also the 20-day EMA, then the same could ensure further upside for the coin. The next resistance for XMR was at $240; once bulls can push price above that, the next level to look out for would be $290.

In a bearish case, if the price breaks below $200, the next level to watch for XMR would be $190.

With MicroStrategy Stacking More Bitcoin, Can the Rally Heat up?

Key Insights:

  • Microstrategy has bought more BTC.
  • The pro-bitcoin software firm now holds approximately 129,218 bitcoins.
  • BTC’s recent rally has been fueled by institutional buying.

MicroStrategy, the US-based enterprise software firm led by bitcoin (BTC) permabull Michael Saylor, has stacked more BTC in its portfolio. Its recent BTC buys have taken its total bitcoin holding to approximately 129,218 BTC.

Stacking Sats

On Tuesday, the Nasdaq-listed pro-bitcoin software firm announced that one of its subsidiaries had obtained a bitcoin-backed loan to purchase additional BTC.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor tweeted,

“MacroStrategy has purchased an additional 4,167 bitcoins for $190.5 million at an average price of $45,714 per bitcoin. As of 4/4/22 MicroStrategy Hodls 129,218 bitcoins acquired for $3.97 billion at an average price of $30,700 per bitcoin.”

MacroStrategy, a subsidiary of Microstrategy, closed a $205 million bitcoin-collateralized loan with Silvergate Bank to purchase over 4000 BTC. The purchases took place between February 15 and April 4.

In a detailed statement, it was revealed that Silvergate Bank ‘has issued a $205 million term loan under its Silvergate Exchange Network (SEN) Leverage program to MacroStrategy LLC.’

As per the agreement, MacroStrategy will use the loan proceeds to purchase bitcoins, pay fees, interest, and expenses related to the loan transaction, or for its or its parent company’s general corporate purposes.

SEN Leverage was launched in 2020 and provides institutional-grade access to capital through US dollar loans collateralized by bitcoin.

About the partnership, Saylor commented by saying,

“The SEN Leverage loan gives us an opportunity to further our position as the leading public company investor in bitcoin.”

BTC Rally to Heat-Up?

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has been supported by institutions buying bitcoin, which has added to the much-needed buying pressure in the market. At the time of writing, bitcoin traded at $46,674.09.

The news of MicroStrategy buying BTC gave its trajectory a minor push as its prices went up by 1.31% on the daily chart. In March, BTC’s price reached $48,200, the highest level seen in 2022.

FXempire, BTC, Crypto, bitcoin
BTC Price Action | Source: FXEmpire

Part of the recent rally has been fueled by large institutions accumulating BTC. BTC buying by the Terra community also contributed to BTC’s current strength. As of April 1, the Terra community had bought 30,727 BTC to give a push to their stablecoin reserves.

If institutions continue to stir buying pressure for BTC in the market the king coin could see a decent push in the near term.

Can this Firm Effectively Aid Bitcoin’s Carbon Footprint Reduction Efforts?

Key Insights:

  • Extending more sustainable bitcoin mining efforts, Stronghold Digital Mining is using coal ash. 
  • Coal ash is a coal by-product used to generate power for BTC mining. 
  • Analysts believe the BTC hash rate could see a short-term pullback. 

The crypto market has been called the wild west of the finance world. More often than not, the pros and cons of top assets and blockchain technology itself have been debated.

One such tedious and endless debate is around bitcoin’s carbon footprint or energy consumption.

Nonetheless, of late, organizations have tried to develop alternatives for greener bitcoin mining to flip the negative narrative around bitcoin mining that has ensued for years.

A New Green Mining Solution?

It is well-known that mining bitcoin is an energy-intensive procedure. In May last year, after China banned BTC mining, many news stories titled, ‘bitcoin consumes more power than so and so country’ was published.

Owing to this energy efficiency debate, many in the industry have argued whether the power required to mine the digital asset is worth the environmental issues it breeds.

Addressing this issue, a US-based firm claims to have discovered a method that puts the endless debates around cryptocurrency mining to rest. A recent Reuters report highlighted that Stronghold Digital Mining uses waste left behind by decades-old coal power plants to generate electricity.

Thus, the coal waste reportedly powers hundreds of supercomputers working on mining bitcoin.

The company collects coal ash from nearby mines and processes it at a waste coal processing facility. Coal ash is a by-product left over from burning coal that can be used to produce electricity.

Stronghold’s CEO Greg Beard, in an interview, stated,

“The bitcoin mining network itself is the largest decentralized computer network in the world, and it’s power-hungry, so co-locating bitcoin mining and a power plant makes a lot of sense.”

Bitcoin Mining Stats

Bitcoin set a new all-time high for hash rate last week; however, Preston Pysh, host of The Investor’s Podcast, thinks this could change. He noted how BTC’s hash rate could witness a short-term ‘lull’ in a recent Tweet.

Renowned analyst Willy Woo replied to Pysh, saying that the hash ribbons chart he shared headed into a bullish accumulation zone that backs up other positive fundamentals.

The ‘hash rate lull’ could most likely be due to short-term political disruptions like Kazakhstan confiscating nearly $200 million in mining equipment.

Notably, BTC mining metrics suggest that bitcoin’s difficulty is set to increase by an estimated 4.66% in the subsequent difficulty readjustment in eight days.

The last two difficulty adjustments were negative, which means that the upcoming increase could send difficulty to a new all-time high of 28.73 trillion.

Wall Street Week Ahead: Lennar, FedEx, Dollar General, GameStop and Fed’s Policy in Focus

The Ukraine-Russia crisis continued to dominate market movements, causing extreme volatility in the financial market and pushing the oil prices to a decade high and depressing stocks.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.5% on Wednesday. Still, analysts will closely monitor inflation and the economic growth outlook and how the central bank projects future rate increases. The fear of a vicious cycle of low growth and higher inflation could deter the Fed from raising rates faster than expected previously.

Last week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.9%. Stocks in the energy sector were the top performers, up nearly 1.9%. Energy stocks have rallied on concerns about tightening supplies that have driven up oil and gas prices. The rally would likely continue this week.

In addition, investors will focus on December quarter earnings for economically sensitive stocks, which should show better profits than technology stocks amid surging inflation.

Earnings By Day

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of March 14

Monday (March 14)

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
CVGW Calavo Growers $-0.01
CORR CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust $0.37
MTN Vail Resorts $5.73

 

Tuesday (March 15)

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
CAL Caleres $0.46
CHMI Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment $0.28
IHS IHS Holding $0.04
KNDI Kandi Technologies Group $-0.07

 

Wednesday (March 16)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: LENNAR

The home construction and real estate company Lennar is expected to report earnings per share of $2.80 in the fiscal first quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 37% from $2.04 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The Miami, Florida-based company would post year-over-year revenue growth of more than 16% to around $6.2 billion. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least.

“2020-2021 proved to be strong years for the U.S. housing market despite the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe favourable demographics will support steady residential construction activity this decade, with annual housing starts averaging 1.6 million units. We expect first-time buyers will be a key driver of future housing demand, and Lennar is well-positioned to capture these potential buyers with its increased mix of entry-level homes,” noted Brian Bernard, Sector Director at Morningstar.

Lennar controls an ample land supply, which affords the company the ability to meet future demand while focusing on improving cash flows and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The company has shifted to a lighter land acquisition strategy, which seeks to reduce the amount of capital tied up in land by purchasing smaller land parcels and relying more on land options to acquire land on a just-in-time basis. We think this strategy should help the company realize better returns on invested capital and cash flows over the business cycle.”

A list of other earnings reports mentionable

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
GES Guess? $1.16
JBL Jabil $1.24
LE Lands’ End $0.33
SMTC Semtech $0.49

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MARCH 16

Thursday (March 17)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: FEDEX, GAMESTOP, DOLLAR GENERAL

FEDEX: The Memphis, Tennessee-based multinational delivery services company FedEx is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings of $4.47 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 28% from $3.47 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The delivery firm would post revenue growth of over 9% to $23.58 billion. It is worth noting that the company has beaten earnings estimates only twice in the last four quarters.

“We are estimating adjusted EPS of $4.76, above the $4.69 consensus. FedEx (FDX) beat on the top and bottom lines last quarter as demand held in while costs remained manageable. We expect most strategic questions to be deferred to the June 28 /29 investor day,” noted Helane Becker, equity analyst at Cowen.

GAMESTOP: The world’s largest multichannel video game retailer GameStop is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $1.06 per share, an improvement from a loss of -$1.39 per share seen in the third quarter. The Grapevine, Texas-based company is forecast to post year-over-year revenue growth of about 4% to around $2.2 billion.

DOLLAR GENERAL: The discount retailer is expected to report earnings per share of $2.59 in the fourth quarter of 2021, which represents a year-over-year decline of over 1.1% from $2.62 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The Goodlettsville Tennessee-based company is expected to post a net income of $8.69 billion. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least.

Dollar General (DG) is a best-in-class operator offering a rare combination of 1) consistent, high-quality top-and bottom-line results; 2) visible store growth; and 3) a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy. The ’22 investment setup is less favourable given decelerating momentum from recent initiatives, a tougher macro backdrop, and ramping expense pressures (particularly on labour). Street estimates look full/fair with less upside potential in our view,” noted Simeon Gutman, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Dollar General’s (DG) valuation (~20x P/E multiple) is in-line with the market and screens relatively fair vs both relative and absolute history. Emerging initiatives (Popshelf, healthcare, produce) are longer-term drivers but likely won’t move the needle in ’22.”

A list of other earnings reports mentionable

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
ACN Accenture $2.36
DG Dollar General $2.59

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MARCH 17

Friday (March 18)

No major earnings are scheduled for release.

FedEx Is Well Worth Watching Ahead of Q3 Earnings

The Memphis, Tennessee-based multinational delivery services company FedEx is expected to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings of $4.47 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of over 28% from $3.47 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The delivery firm would post revenue growth of over 9% to $23.58 billion. It is worth noting that the company has beaten earnings estimates only twice in the last four quarters.

“We are estimating adjusted EPS of $4.76, above the $4.69 consensus. FedEx (FDX) beat on the top and bottom lines last quarter as demand held in while costs remained manageable. We expect most strategic questions to be deferred to the June 28 /29 investor day,” noted Helane Becker, equity analyst at Cowen.

At the time of writing, FedEx stock traded 2.51% lower at $213.77 on Friday. The stock tumbled more than 17% so far this year after falling 0.4% in 2021.

Analyst Comments

“We expect a miss for F3Q22 as ongoing pandemic tailwinds are offset by headwinds from Omicron, weather and labour challenges. The sentiment is cautious and the stock has underperformed but the risk to numbers (esp. FY23/24) remains high and we will not have answers until the June analyst day,” noted Ravi Shanker, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We see EBIT growth slightly down in FY22 as volume pandemic related tailwinds begin to fade and the company grapples with very difficult comps. We continue to see secular threats to Parcel and remain skeptical that these trends will be sustainable but believe that until there is evidence of a reversal in earnings momentum, the stock can trade at its historical multiple (14-15x PE) on current EPS.”

FedEx Stock Price Forecast

Sixteen analysts who offered stock ratings for FedEx in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $309.63 with a high forecast of $345.00 and a low forecast of $260.00.

The average price target represents a 44.49% change from the last price of $214.29. Of those 16 analysts, 14 rated “Buy”, two rated “Hold”, while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price to $260 with a high of $375 under a bull scenario and $125 under the worst-case scenario. The investment bank gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the delivery firm’s stock.

Several analysts have also updated their stock outlook. JP Morgan cut the price objective to $297 from $312. BofA lowered the price target to $297 from $310. Bernstein raised the target price to $353 from $339. Cowen lifted the price target to $310 from $283.

Technical analysis suggests it is good to sell as 100-day Moving Average and 100-200-day MACD Oscillator shows a selling opportunity.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Rivian Shares Tumble As 2022 Production Outlook Disappoints

Shares of electric vehicles manufacturer Rivian fell over 8% on Friday after the company cut its production outlook in half as surging input costs and supply chain bottlenecks continue to bite.

Irvine, California-based EV start-up warned that supply-chain problems could halve its planned production this year to just 25,000 vehicles. Net loss for the fourth quarter was $2.46 billion, or $4.83 per share, compared with a loss of $353 million, or $3.50 per share, from the year-ago period, Reuters reported.

The company’s reported revenue of $54 million, fell far short of analysts’ expectations of $60 million. Cash and equivalents amounted to $18.4 billion in the last quarter.

At the time of writing, Rivian stock traded over 8.0% lower at $37.82 on Friday, way below their IPO price of $78. The stock fell more than 60% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

Rivian is a well-capitalized pure EV start-up OEM that can leverage its strategic relationship with Amazon to derive scale and build software and services competencies for its consumer business. We forecast Rivian to sell 1.5 million BEVs annually in 2030 (801k Consumer / 653k Commercial). We forecast Rivian’s total revenues to grow at a 34% CAGR from 2025 to 2030,” noted Adam Jonas, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Rivian’s software services business can grow from $641 million revenues in 2025, $7 billion in 2030 and $36 billion in 2040, as the installed base grows in size exponentially. We value Rivian at $147, 1.3x 2030 EV/Sales, expensive vs Auto OEMs but not versus software/tech companies and in-line with EV startups such as Tesla and Lucid.”

Rivian Stock Price Forecast

Twelve analysts who offered stock ratings for Rivian in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $85.00 with a high forecast of $147.00 and a low forecast of $35.00.

The average price target represents a 119.47% change from the last price of $38.73. Of those 12 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold”, while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price to $94 with a high of $200 under a bull scenario and $40 under the worst-case scenario. The investment bank gave an “Overweight” rating on the electric vehicles manufacturer’s stock.

Several analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Barclays cut the target price to $115 from $120. Deutsche Bank initiated with a buy rating and set the target price to $130. Mizuho initiated with a buy rating and set the target price at $145.

However, technical analysis suggests it is good to sell as 100-day Moving Average and 100-200-day MACD Oscillator shows a selling opportunity.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar