Natural gas markets have broken down significantly during the week, slicing through the $1.80 level. That’s an area that has been supportive in the past, and at this point the fact that the market has broken down suggests that we are going to go lower. The oversupply of natural gas continues to be a major problem with this market, as fracking continues to produce way too much. Furthermore, the warmer temperatures coming does not help the situation, and beyond that we have received a very bearish inventory report this past week, so at this point it’s likely that we will see plenty of sellers. The question now is whether or not we can break down below the $1.60 level, and if we do that would be quite remarkable.
NATGAS Video 02.03.20
To the upside, the market could very well try to reach towards the $1.80 level before selling off again, or perhaps even the $2.00 level. I have no interest in buying this market, because quite frankly this is a market that has been far too oversold for far too long to believe that it is suddenly going to change its tune. With warmer temperatures, and oversupply of natural gas, and quite frankly now the worry about the coronavirus killing off demand, it’s very unlikely that this market will be able to recover anytime soon. It is going to take several bankruptcies in the United States when it comes to natural gas suppliers and drillers in order to bring down the commodity supply. At this point, market participants continue to sell rallies.