Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose at first during the session on Wednesday, but managed to fall back down during the session as the commodity continued the downtrend. The candle for the session is a fairly sizeable shooting star, and this suggests that we are ready for another leg downward at this point. Because of this, we are ready to sell this market on a break of the lows for the session on Wednesday. The market shouldn’t be bought in our opinion, as the trend is clearly down, even as we have seen large rips to the upside. In the end, the trend is down, and we choose to follow it.

Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 21, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.545 after having a wild ride up and down today, NG is trading close to its open. Investors are hoping to see a drop in inventory as the weekly supply will be announced tomorrow.

Markets were surprised today, by crude oil, which increased again this week, as markets were expecting a decline.

At present, there are no weather projections that would help with NG consumption, and there are no unexpected demands. There is little reason that prices skyrocketed this week, except for speculation and manipulation. As stated before, NG has been bouncing up and down with little supportive data, ever since crude oil fell from its highs. It is my view point that the speculators that drove crude to 106.00 when forced out of the market moved to NG.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 20, 2012 actual. v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.66T

 

-0.36T 

 

-0.51T 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 21  08:30  Spain

Jun 21  08:50  France

Jun 21  09:30  UK

Jun 21  09:50  France

Jun 21  15:00  US

Jun 21  17:00  US

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wait on the FOMC

Today is an important day for oil futures prices ahead of inventory data report and FOMC rate decision ending with FOMC meet.

As per American petroleum institute, crude oil and distillates stocks has been declined in the last week, whereas stock piling is witnessed in gasoline. Remember in recent months, the API reports has been more wrong then right, the markets are now ignoring these numbers.

The  US energy department inventory is due for release later today, where we can expect crude oil stocks to decline. However, ahead of summer season refiners are increasing their production to meet the demand which may lead to higher stocks of gasoline and distillates.

With the global slowdown, demand is currently weak. Markets are hoping a push from the FOMC may stimulate economic activity in the US, helping increase demand. Overall, inventory report may act as a positive driver for oil prices. Currently, most of the Asian equities are trading on higher side on optimism from FOMC meet with a monetary stimulus. Crude oil imports have been increased by more than 7 percent in the month of May, which is also expected to support oil price trend.

The third round of talk with Iran are scheduled to continue on a positive note, as geopolitical turmoil seems to be at an all time low. The embargo is set to go into full effect next month. Any threat with a mid point at Strait of Hormuz may support oil to take cues on supply concern. However, another round of talk is expected very soon though the date is not yet declared. Most importantly, market is eyeing for FOMC rate decision which may add positive stimulus for oil prices.

 This morning in electronic trading gas futures prices are trading above $2.561/mmbtu with gain of near than 1%. Today we may expect gas prices to continue the positive trend supported by its intrinsic fundamentals. As per National Hurricane centre, there are 60 and 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation near gulf coast region which may create supply concern to add positive direction in on gas prices.  As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 64 BCF in the last week. Consumption of power sector have also increased by 6 percent, which may support gas prices to remain on higher side. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption.

Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell for much of the day on Tuesday as the market retested the $2.50 level for support. The hot summer is causing a bit more demand in the US at the moment, and as a result the price of this market has been rising as of late. However, there are serious structural problems with the massive amount of supply in this market, and because of this we are will hesitant to buy. The $2.80 and $3.00 levels will be crucial for the bears to hold onto, and we would prefer to sell at one of those areas if we get weak price action. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 20, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas has spent the last 24hours on a crazy roller coaster, trading as high as 2.658 before investors began to take profits and sell off. Natural Gas rose yesterday on EIA reports showing that the injection levels were lower than estimated, showing a higher consumption then expected

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 19

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.3% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.8%

 

3.0% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.9

 

4.0 

 

10.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-20.1

 

-5.7 

 

-2.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.780M

 

0.728M 

 

0.723M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.708M

 

0.720M 

 

0.744M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

1.5%

 

1.0% 

 

0.3% 

   

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the session on Monday as the $2.50 level was overcome. The reaction in the markets was strong, and the $2.60 level was even overcome later in the day. The action is certainly very bullish, so we aren’t willing to step in front of this kind of action and sell at the moment. The $2.80 level will be crucial for the bears, and the $3 level even more so. If that $3 level gets closed above – we are ready to start buying finally. However, in the mean time we are looking at it as a market to fade rallies in, especially the $2.80 and $3 levels on a weak candle. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 19, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas added a few cents today, as speculators pushed up the commodity to trade at 2.501. To be very honest, I cannot find any substantiating data to account for the price increase. There has been little in the way of eco news, inventory or supply updates or weather data that should have direct effects on Natural Gas, but relief over the Greek crisis and election could account for positive market sentiment.

There is a busy week ahead for the markets and Ben Bernanke will be sure to turn things upside down after the FOMC meetings.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 19

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

3.0%

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-2.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the session on Friday as the massive up move on Thursday prompted traders to take profits during the session. The $2.60 level was the first level that we suggested there could be serious resistance, and it does appear that the level has started to work against the price of this market. The candle for the session is a bit of a doji, and as a result we think a break to the bottom would be a big enough signal to sell this down trending market. On a break higher, we are looking for weak candles near the $2.80 and $3 levels.

Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the previous week to push prices higher overall. The candle was a reasonably strong one, but much of the gains were predicated upon the Thursday announcement of a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories in the United States. While this was a bullish sign, it is far too early to suggest that the tide has turned. In the mean time, we are still bearish overall, and would have to look for weak candles to sell at this point. However, if we manage a daily close above the $3 level, we would be willing to change our bias to the upside. 

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas ended the week at 2.47 as it was a wild week for the commodity. Speculators with little real data or eco support were able to run up the prices as high as 2.5457 after opening the week at 2.194.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 15, 2012

2.470

2.537

2.557

2.445

-2.64%

Jun 14, 2012

2.538

2.187

2.543

2.170

16.00%

Jun 13, 2012

2.188

2.218

2.228

2.182

-1.33%

Jun 12, 2012

2.217

2.195

2.271

2.174

1.05%

Jun 11, 2012

2.194

2.260

2.284

2.193

-2.92%

 

The Energy Administration inventory remains high and there is no real increase in demand, so with the possibility of a hurricane, speculators pushed the prices up on Thursday and Friday and by late Friday began to sell of taking profits.

This commodity has been on a rollercoaster ride, that seems to have started the same day as crude oils drop from the 106. price. Kind of strange isn’t it.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical:

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.989 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 18, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas has been very active today, moving up and then falling as investors pulled profits from the markets. Most traders are positioning themselves before the busy week in EU politics, with the upcoming Green elections and the French polls and the Presidential election in Egypt.  Many traders are withdrawing to sit on the side lines, as markets most likely will be extremely volatile come Monday.

The Dollar Index has dropped due to negative eco data in the US and worries over the US economic slowdown.

The US National Hurricane Center has issued advisory on tropical storm Carlotta in eastern pacific, which may create supply disturbance. So, concern of supply disturbance may keep on gas on higher side. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage has been increased by 67 BCF in the last week, which is lower than last 5 weeks average at this time. Consumption of power sector have also increased by 6 percent , which may support gas prices to remain on higher side.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 15

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.5B 

 

-8.7B 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

1.00% 

 

1.90% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

2.3

 

13.0 

 

17.1 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 18

18th-22nd

GBP

Nationwide Consumer Confidence

45

44

 

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 19

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

3.0%

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-2.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had an absolutely smashing rally during the Thursday session as the US natural gas storage numbers came out much smaller than expected. This lead to a rally that had some people buying, and many more covering shorts. This move has smashed through several levels as this point, and it looks as if the market will have suddenly found some serious strength, and at this point we have to step back as we are massively bearish.

The supply simply is too strong at this point, even with the good news for the bulls during the session. The truth is that the market has seen a massive short covering rally, and although we still retain the same attitude of bearishness in this commodity, there is certainly going to be a period of “cooling off” after a move like this, and because of this we are going to stay out of this market for a couple of sessions.

The $2.60 level above could offer a fair amount of resistance, and we think that a weak candle at that level could be one to sell, but we won’t take the trade for at least a few days as  a large green candle like this rarely gets reversed right away. The bulls will simply have to be turned away by the lack of follow through in order to close their positions. For example, someone who bought at the start of the spike in price certainly will want to let their trade run a bit in order to see if it can continue. Because of this, it is very possible that it will take a few days of lackluster action in order to get these traders out of the market.

Because of this, we aren’t going to be looking for an entry until Tuesday or so, and will look to sell the first weak candle above. If the market manages to get above the $3 level before then, however unlikely, we would buy. A lot of attention will be paid to the $2.80 and $3 levels.

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 15, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas added 0.025 retracting its step to end at 2.21 while it hugs the 2.20 price line closely.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its estimate for domestic natural gas production growth in 2012 for a second straight month but still expects output this year to be up 3.4 per cent from 2011’s record levels. So, in one side lower production estimate may support gas to trade on higher side, where lower demand may limit the gains. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is likely o increase by 75 BCF, which may add pressure on gas prices. Most importantly, As per National Hurricane Centre, as of now there is no tropical storm formation is seen in North Atlantic region. Normal temperature in consuming region of US, may pressurize gas demand for the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 14

05:30

 

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

 

 

 

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:00

 

 

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00

 

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

10:00

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Current Account 

-137.3B

 

-132.3B 

 

-118.7B 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

386K

 

375K 

 

380K 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3278K

 

3269K 

 

3311K 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.8% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.2% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 15

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.6B

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

17.1

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

36.2B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.2%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

1.1%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

79.3

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets continue to fall in general as the weakness seems to be unending. The action for the Wednesday session was slight but weak. The market is without a doubt one of the most reliable from a trending point of view, and as a result we fancy selling this market. The natural gas supply has been far too great in order to buy it, and as a result we simply sell rallies on signs of weakness and will also sell a break of the low for the Wednesday session as well. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 14, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 14, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 14, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continues to bounce losing just over 2 cents in today’s session as investors are trying to pick profitable positions before the release of inventories tomorrow.

This weekend’s election in Greece could determine if that financially troubled country will leave the euro currency union. In other trading, heating oil was unchanged at $2.63 per gallon, gasoline was unchanged at $2.65 per gallon at natural gas rose 4 cents to $2.26 per 1,000 cubic feet. At the pump, the national average for a gallon of gasoline rose less than a penny to $3.542 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. That’s nearly 19 cents less than a month ago.

Natural gas futures declined for the second day and  to the lowest level since April, on forecasts for cooler weather that may reduce power-plant demand for the fuel.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 13

00:00

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

0.30%

 

 

 

0.80% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-1.0% 

 

-0.1% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.0% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

0.7%

 

1.1% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 14

7:30

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

7:30

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

   

7:30

CHF

SNB Press Conference

   

8:00

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

   

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

   

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

377K

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

 

0.0%

12:30

USD

Current Account

 

-124B

Jun 15

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

 

-8.6B

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

17.1

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

 

36.2B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

 

79.2%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

1.1%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

79.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jun 14 09:10 Italy

Jun 14 09:30 UK

Jun 14 15:00 US

Jun 14 17:00 US

Natural Gas Forecast June 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets continued to grind sideways at the recent lows on Tuesday. This is mainly because there simply isn’t enough demand to put a serious dent in supply at the moment, and as a result – selling natural gas has been one of the most reliable trades in any market this past year.

We are still sellers, and will fade rallies as they come. Also, we are willing to sell a break of the most recent lows as it would show a move to the downside again. We firmly believe that the $2 level will eventually be tested.

Natural Gas Forecast June 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 13, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas climbed today, trading at 2.24 adding 0.025. as investors anticipated a lower inventory this week and reduced production with a few wells closing down.

Also the national weather forecast, is calling for higher temperatures for the next two weeks which will increase electricity needs and hopefully turn to NG for production.

Natural gas demand is expected to increase on account of warmer weather expectation. As per US weather channel, weather is likely to remain seasonably warmer which may not pull demand of gas and ultimately weigh on prices. Currently, the storage level is at 2877 BCF, positioned storage volumes 732 Bcf above year-ago levels. In the coming week, also the injection level is likely to increase on the back of rising supply and lower demand, which may weigh on gas prices. Also as per National Hurricane Centre, as of now there is no tropical storm formation is seen in North Atlantic region.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 

WEEKLY

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Updates

During early Asian session, oil futures are seen hovering below $82/bbl with loss of more than 0.80 percent in electronic trading. Most of the Asian equities are trading in a negative note as euphoria over Spain bailout fades.

Question has come out that, who will pay for Spain bailout? So, we may expect the seventeen nation currency Euro to remain under pressure with the above question mark ahead of Italy bond auction on Thursday. So, weakening Euro may weigh on oil prices. From fundamental front, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said OPEC may need a higher output quota and the U.S. issued more exemptions from sanctions for buying Iran’s crude. The production quota is expected to increase by OPEC members above 30 billion barrels per day, which may have negative impact on oil prices.

On other side, due to fall in Iran crude oil import by some of the major Iranian oil consuming nations in last six months, US have expected them from the sanction. The list includes India, South Korea, Malaysia, Sri Lanka Turkey and Taiwan.

Most importantly, oil market is eyeing for OPEC meet on tomorrow, which may create a sluggish trend in oil prices. From economic data point, economic release in the form of fall in import prices index is expected whereas fall in monthly budget may create a negative picture of the US economy. So, oil prices may further come down during US session. Overall, we may expect oil prices are expected to trade under pressure throughout the day today.

Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia put itself on a collision course with fellow OPEC member countries on Monday by calling for an increase in the cartel’s output target despite a recent fall in crude prices.

The United States extended exemptions from its tough, new sanctions on Iran’s oil trade to seven more economies Monday, leaving China the last remaining major importer exposed  to possible penalties at the end of the month.

Output at the biggest U.S. refinery could be cut by more than half for up to five months after Motiva Enterprise’s failed to restart a major new crude unit at the Port Arthur, Texas, plant over the weekend, sources familiar with operations said on Monday. Any oil stock release would have to be motivated by a crude supply disruption, not by the price of oil, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday, adding there were currently no major gaps in supply.

Workers from   Britain’s Croydon oil refinery on Monday disrupted the supply of fuel heading to some petrol stations in the southeast of the country to protest against the plant’s closure and demand the government intervene to save 900 job

Currently, gas futures prices are trading below $2.220/mmbtu with loss of more than 1.2 percent. Natural gas demand is expected to decline on account of normal weather expectation. As per US weather channel, weather is likely to remain normal which may not pull demand of gas and ultimately weigh on prices. Currently, the storage level is at 2877 BCF, positioned storage volumes 732 Bcf above year-ago levels. In the coming week, also the injection level is likely to increase on the back of rising supply and lower demand, which may weigh on gas prices. Most importantly, As per National Hurricane Center, as of now there is no tropical storm formation is seen in North Atlantic region. Normal temperature in consuming region of US, may pressurize gas demand for the day.

Natural Gas Forecast June 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell again on Monday, and more importantly broke below the bottom of the lows from the Friday session. The breaking below of the hammer is a bearish sign in a market that is already very weak in general. We feel that selling this market is still the only way to go, and quite frankly wouldn’t even worry too much about the entry at this point. This market looks destined to test the $2 level and probably below for that matter. There are analysts out there calling for $1 natural gas. At this rate – this is very possible. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 12, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading down dropping 0.043 to exchange at 2.256.

A recent report in California, said that if the twin nuclear facilities are offline, and if the summer is hot that the state might have to start rolling blackouts. There is a plan to reopen two closed energy facilities that run on natural gas, this might be the boost that ng needs to use the excessive inventory. At present no final plans have been made.

Also, The number of rigs actively explored for oil and natural gas in the US was up by 4 last week to 1,984. 1,414 rigs were explored for oil and 565 for gas while 5 were listed as miscellaneous, as per Houston-based oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc.

As per the US Energy Department, demand from the residential sector is expected to decline in comparison to last year, as this year summer season is going to be less severe on account of lower number of Cooling Degree Days expectation, reported by EIA. Currently, the storage level is at 2877 BCF, positioned storage volumes 732 Bcf above year-ago levels. In the coming week, also the injection level is likely to increase on the back of rising supply and lower demand, which may weigh on gas prices. Most importantly, As per National Hurricane Centre, as of now there is no tropical storm formation is seen in North Atlantic region. Normal temperature in consuming region of US, may pressurize gas demand for the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 9-10-11, 2012 actual v. forecast ( today was very lite for all of Europe and the US. The Chinese Eco data, had the most effects on the markets )

Jun. 09

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

3.0%

 

3.2% 

 

3.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-1.4%

 

-1.1% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.1%

 

20.0% 

 

20.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.6%

 

9.9% 

 

9.3% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.8%

 

14.3% 

 

14.1% 

   

Jun. 10

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

18.70B

 

16.30B 

 

18.40B 

 

Jun. 11

 

JPY

 

 

 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

-5.7

 

-2.4 

 

-7.3 

 

                             

 

WEEKLY