Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 26, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas soared today, with reason. The price reached 2.746 and is still climbing at this time. Today’s new is all about a report on Dow Jones Newswires that Japan hopes it can secure liquefied-natural-gas supplies from U.S. shale-gas deposits, although the two countries don’t yet have a free-trade agreement.

“We are conducting negotiations at the moment so that it can be exported unconditionally, even if we don’t have an FTA,” Yukio Edano, Japan’s minister for economy, trade and industry, said in an interview at St. Petersburg in Russia, according to the report.

In the absence of domestic production of such fuels, Japan pays high prices for LNG imports. Gas prices in the U.S. are relatively much lower.

Although new production techniques have boosted U.S. shale-gas output and turned the country into the world’s biggest gas producer, opposition to large-scale gas exports is rising, Dow Jones reported.

The report added that while the Department of Energy could be expected to approve requests for LNG exports to countries with which the U.S. has free-trade agreements, the agency has been delaying decisions on exports to other countries until it completes its studies on the potential domestic impact from exports.

Edano said he believed that the U.S. could meet Japan’s LNG needs without hurting domestic consumers. “There is plenty of room for [the U.S.] to export shale gas,” he reportedly added.

Ever since the tsunami that destroyed or caused the closure of all the Islands nuclear electric production the country has been facing difficult securing the energy it needs to produce electricity. This new agreement would help boost the US exports and help reduce the Japanese trade balance which has been distorted because of its imports of crude oil.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Forecast June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a very quiet day during the Friday session as traders were willing to consolidate near the $2.60 level. The recent action in the natural gas markets has been less than impressive, and will leave a lot of bulls wondering whether or not they have got it right. The natural gas supply in the United States and Canada is simply far too strong to support high prices. The market looks as if it is setting up for another fall, or perhaps even a larger consolidated area between the $2.20 level, and the $2.80 level above. However, the longer-term trend is definitely down, so we are planning to sell any significant break to the downside.

Natural Gas Forecast June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose for the previous five sessions as the consolidated feel of the market continues. The recent action will have given some of the bulls quite a bit of confidence, but in reality the trend is still far from being up. The market still looks extraordinarily weak, and as such we are not willing to buy it. However, we do admit freely that this latest action does in fact look like a market that is trying to find some type of base. Having said this, we are looking to sell for a long-term position, but at higher levels. Of course, if we break the recent low from two weeks ago, we would have to sell as well. We have absolutely no intentions of buying natural gas in the near term.

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 25-29, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas continues to keep speculators happy, surging to 2.639 as it bounced around like a yoyo all week, allowing speculators to make huge profits on its high volatility.

Prices spiked dramatically off the lows from earlier this month amid forecasts of simmering summer temperatures across the United States and a gradual, but consistent reduction in the storage surplus.

Price action in natural gas has been in-line with our expectations, which call for range-bound fluctuations between $2/mmbtu and $2.75. Given that prices are near the top end of that range currently, we would be more inclined to sell rather than buy.

Even so, the fundamentals for gas are still moving in the right direction to rebalance the market. This week, the EIA confirmed that storage levels continue to increase at a slower-than-normal rate. Operators injected 62 billion cubic feet into inventories last week, below the 98 Bcf of last year and the 89 Bcf five-year average. The inventory surplus remains substantial and prices will need to stay low to encourage demand, while discouraging supply. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 19-23, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 19

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.9

 

4.0 

 

10.8 

 

 

Jun. 20

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

19:15

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23:45

 

NZD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

   

Jun. 21

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.4%

 

1.2% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

387K

 

380K 

 

389K 

   

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.55M

 

4.57M 

 

4.62M 

 

 

Jun. 22

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

105.3

 

105.9 

 

106.9 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

Historical:

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.989 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 25

6:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.7

25th-30th

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

343K

Jun 26

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

-18.8B

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-2.6%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

Jun 27

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.2%

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

32.4K

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

21

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jun 28

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

0K

8:30

GBP

Current Account

-8.5B

8:30

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

8:30

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

Jun 29

29th-4th

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.6%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.81

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.5%

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

 

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 25, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas rose again today, surprising market speculators. The commodity is trading at 2.62 up 0.038 or 1.49%. Amidst economic slowdowns, drops in manufacturing and growth, reduced demand, there is little in the way to account for the increase in NG prices. The dollar is trading strong and crude oil is hitting new lows with excessive inventories.

Gas futures prices have rebounded from its nine month’s low on threat from tropical storm formation in Gulf coast region. As per National Hurricane Center, there is 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation very close to Gulf region, which may lead for supply and production disturbances. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 64 BCF in the last week .This represents an implied net injection of 62 Bcf from the previous week. This week’s injection was 25 Bcf below the 5-year (2007-2011) injection of 87 Bcf, and 28 Bcf below last year’s injection of 90 Bcf. Since April 27, injections of working natural gas into underground storage have fallen short of both year-ago levels and the 5-year average, although stocks remain well above historical levels. Demand has been climbed up by 2.21 percent, highly contributed by power sector in the last week. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption. Most energy producers will switch to NG for their overflow production but not for their basic production as they have long term contracts with coal suppliers.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

105.3

 

105.9

 

106.9

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

113.9

 

112.3

 

113.2

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

97.3

 

99.8

 

100.8

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.2%

 

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 25

6:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.7

25th-30th

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

343K

Jun 26

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

-18.8B

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-2.6%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

Jun 27

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.2%

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

32.4K

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

21

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jun 28

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

0K

8:30

GBP

Current Account

-8.5B

8:30

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

8:30

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

Jun 29

29th-4th

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.6%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.81

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.5%

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

Jun 27  09:10  Italy

Jun 27  09:10  Sweden

Jun 27  17:00  US

Jun 28  09:10  Italy

Jun 28  17:00  US

Natural Gas Forecast June 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets attempted to rally for the session on Thursday, only to fall back down and form a shooting star again. The last couple of sessions have produced very weak looking candles, and as a result we are ready to start selling again on a break of the bottom of the last couple of sessions. As a matter of fact, we are comfortable selling and holding on until we get at least a test of the $2 level for support. We feel that the downtrend is most certainly still on control, and as a result will hold onto selling positions as long as possible.

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 22, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 22, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 22, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.546 adding 0.029cents in today’s session. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 15 rose by 62 billion cubic feet, below market expectations for an increase of 64 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 90 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 87 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.006 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 680 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 641 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 2.365 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data Releases for June 21, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun. 21

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

48.10

 

48.40

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

44.5

44.7

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

45.2

45.2

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

44.8

44.9

45.1

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.4%

2.0%

-1.1%

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-11

-20

-17

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.5%

0.3%

0.4%

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

387K

380K

389K

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3299K

3275K

3299K

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose at first during the session on Wednesday, but managed to fall back down during the session as the commodity continued the downtrend. The candle for the session is a fairly sizeable shooting star, and this suggests that we are ready for another leg downward at this point. Because of this, we are ready to sell this market on a break of the lows for the session on Wednesday. The market shouldn’t be bought in our opinion, as the trend is clearly down, even as we have seen large rips to the upside. In the end, the trend is down, and we choose to follow it.

Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 21, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.545 after having a wild ride up and down today, NG is trading close to its open. Investors are hoping to see a drop in inventory as the weekly supply will be announced tomorrow.

Markets were surprised today, by crude oil, which increased again this week, as markets were expecting a decline.

At present, there are no weather projections that would help with NG consumption, and there are no unexpected demands. There is little reason that prices skyrocketed this week, except for speculation and manipulation. As stated before, NG has been bouncing up and down with little supportive data, ever since crude oil fell from its highs. It is my view point that the speculators that drove crude to 106.00 when forced out of the market moved to NG.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 20, 2012 actual. v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.66T

 

-0.36T 

 

-0.51T 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 21  08:30  Spain

Jun 21  08:50  France

Jun 21  09:30  UK

Jun 21  09:50  France

Jun 21  15:00  US

Jun 21  17:00  US

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wait on the FOMC

Today is an important day for oil futures prices ahead of inventory data report and FOMC rate decision ending with FOMC meet.

As per American petroleum institute, crude oil and distillates stocks has been declined in the last week, whereas stock piling is witnessed in gasoline. Remember in recent months, the API reports has been more wrong then right, the markets are now ignoring these numbers.

The  US energy department inventory is due for release later today, where we can expect crude oil stocks to decline. However, ahead of summer season refiners are increasing their production to meet the demand which may lead to higher stocks of gasoline and distillates.

With the global slowdown, demand is currently weak. Markets are hoping a push from the FOMC may stimulate economic activity in the US, helping increase demand. Overall, inventory report may act as a positive driver for oil prices. Currently, most of the Asian equities are trading on higher side on optimism from FOMC meet with a monetary stimulus. Crude oil imports have been increased by more than 7 percent in the month of May, which is also expected to support oil price trend.

The third round of talk with Iran are scheduled to continue on a positive note, as geopolitical turmoil seems to be at an all time low. The embargo is set to go into full effect next month. Any threat with a mid point at Strait of Hormuz may support oil to take cues on supply concern. However, another round of talk is expected very soon though the date is not yet declared. Most importantly, market is eyeing for FOMC rate decision which may add positive stimulus for oil prices.

 This morning in electronic trading gas futures prices are trading above $2.561/mmbtu with gain of near than 1%. Today we may expect gas prices to continue the positive trend supported by its intrinsic fundamentals. As per National Hurricane centre, there are 60 and 70 percent chance of tropical storm formation near gulf coast region which may create supply concern to add positive direction in on gas prices.  As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is expected to increase by 64 BCF in the last week. Consumption of power sector have also increased by 6 percent, which may support gas prices to remain on higher side. As per US weather forecast, temperature is expected to remain high in eastern region, which may create demand for gas consumption.

Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell for much of the day on Tuesday as the market retested the $2.50 level for support. The hot summer is causing a bit more demand in the US at the moment, and as a result the price of this market has been rising as of late. However, there are serious structural problems with the massive amount of supply in this market, and because of this we are will hesitant to buy. The $2.80 and $3.00 levels will be crucial for the bears to hold onto, and we would prefer to sell at one of those areas if we get weak price action. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 20, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas has spent the last 24hours on a crazy roller coaster, trading as high as 2.658 before investors began to take profits and sell off. Natural Gas rose yesterday on EIA reports showing that the injection levels were lower than estimated, showing a higher consumption then expected

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 19

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.3% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.8%

 

3.0% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.9

 

4.0 

 

10.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-20.1

 

-5.7 

 

-2.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.780M

 

0.728M 

 

0.723M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.708M

 

0.720M 

 

0.744M 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

1.5%

 

1.0% 

 

0.3% 

   

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the session on Monday as the $2.50 level was overcome. The reaction in the markets was strong, and the $2.60 level was even overcome later in the day. The action is certainly very bullish, so we aren’t willing to step in front of this kind of action and sell at the moment. The $2.80 level will be crucial for the bears, and the $3 level even more so. If that $3 level gets closed above – we are ready to start buying finally. However, in the mean time we are looking at it as a market to fade rallies in, especially the $2.80 and $3 levels on a weak candle. 

Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 19, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 19, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas added a few cents today, as speculators pushed up the commodity to trade at 2.501. To be very honest, I cannot find any substantiating data to account for the price increase. There has been little in the way of eco news, inventory or supply updates or weather data that should have direct effects on Natural Gas, but relief over the Greek crisis and election could account for positive market sentiment.

There is a busy week ahead for the markets and Ben Bernanke will be sure to turn things upside down after the FOMC meetings.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 19

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

3.0%

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-2.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the session on Friday as the massive up move on Thursday prompted traders to take profits during the session. The $2.60 level was the first level that we suggested there could be serious resistance, and it does appear that the level has started to work against the price of this market. The candle for the session is a bit of a doji, and as a result we think a break to the bottom would be a big enough signal to sell this down trending market. On a break higher, we are looking for weak candles near the $2.80 and $3 levels.

Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the previous week to push prices higher overall. The candle was a reasonably strong one, but much of the gains were predicated upon the Thursday announcement of a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories in the United States. While this was a bullish sign, it is far too early to suggest that the tide has turned. In the mean time, we are still bearish overall, and would have to look for weak candles to sell at this point. However, if we manage a daily close above the $3 level, we would be willing to change our bias to the upside. 

Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast for the Week of June 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas ended the week at 2.47 as it was a wild week for the commodity. Speculators with little real data or eco support were able to run up the prices as high as 2.5457 after opening the week at 2.194.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 15, 2012

2.470

2.537

2.557

2.445

-2.64%

Jun 14, 2012

2.538

2.187

2.543

2.170

16.00%

Jun 13, 2012

2.188

2.218

2.228

2.182

-1.33%

Jun 12, 2012

2.217

2.195

2.271

2.174

1.05%

Jun 11, 2012

2.194

2.260

2.284

2.193

-2.92%

 

The Energy Administration inventory remains high and there is no real increase in demand, so with the possibility of a hurricane, speculators pushed the prices up on Thursday and Friday and by late Friday began to sell of taking profits.

This commodity has been on a rollercoaster ride, that seems to have started the same day as crude oils drop from the 106. price. Kind of strange isn’t it.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical:

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.989 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

 

Economic Events: (GMT)

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 18, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas has been very active today, moving up and then falling as investors pulled profits from the markets. Most traders are positioning themselves before the busy week in EU politics, with the upcoming Green elections and the French polls and the Presidential election in Egypt.  Many traders are withdrawing to sit on the side lines, as markets most likely will be extremely volatile come Monday.

The Dollar Index has dropped due to negative eco data in the US and worries over the US economic slowdown.

The US National Hurricane Center has issued advisory on tropical storm Carlotta in eastern pacific, which may create supply disturbance. So, concern of supply disturbance may keep on gas on higher side. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage has been increased by 67 BCF in the last week, which is lower than last 5 weeks average at this time. Consumption of power sector have also increased by 6 percent , which may support gas prices to remain on higher side.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 15

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.5B 

 

-8.7B 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

1.00% 

 

1.90% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

2.3

 

13.0 

 

17.1 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 18

18th-22nd

GBP

Nationwide Consumer Confidence

45

44

 

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 19

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

3.0%

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-2.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

0.2%

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-4.0

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.2M

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

16:30

USD

Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had an absolutely smashing rally during the Thursday session as the US natural gas storage numbers came out much smaller than expected. This lead to a rally that had some people buying, and many more covering shorts. This move has smashed through several levels as this point, and it looks as if the market will have suddenly found some serious strength, and at this point we have to step back as we are massively bearish.

The supply simply is too strong at this point, even with the good news for the bulls during the session. The truth is that the market has seen a massive short covering rally, and although we still retain the same attitude of bearishness in this commodity, there is certainly going to be a period of “cooling off” after a move like this, and because of this we are going to stay out of this market for a couple of sessions.

The $2.60 level above could offer a fair amount of resistance, and we think that a weak candle at that level could be one to sell, but we won’t take the trade for at least a few days as  a large green candle like this rarely gets reversed right away. The bulls will simply have to be turned away by the lack of follow through in order to close their positions. For example, someone who bought at the start of the spike in price certainly will want to let their trade run a bit in order to see if it can continue. Because of this, it is very possible that it will take a few days of lackluster action in order to get these traders out of the market.

Because of this, we aren’t going to be looking for an entry until Tuesday or so, and will look to sell the first weak candle above. If the market manages to get above the $3 level before then, however unlikely, we would buy. A lot of attention will be paid to the $2.80 and $3 levels.

 

Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast June 15, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis June 15, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas added 0.025 retracting its step to end at 2.21 while it hugs the 2.20 price line closely.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its estimate for domestic natural gas production growth in 2012 for a second straight month but still expects output this year to be up 3.4 per cent from 2011’s record levels. So, in one side lower production estimate may support gas to trade on higher side, where lower demand may limit the gains. As per US Energy department, natural gas storage is likely o increase by 75 BCF, which may add pressure on gas prices. Most importantly, As per National Hurricane Centre, as of now there is no tropical storm formation is seen in North Atlantic region. Normal temperature in consuming region of US, may pressurize gas demand for the day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 14

05:30

 

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

 

 

 

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:00

 

 

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00

 

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

10:00

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Current Account 

-137.3B

 

-132.3B 

 

-118.7B 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

386K

 

375K 

 

380K 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3278K

 

3269K 

 

3311K 

   

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.8% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.2% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 15

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.6B

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

17.1

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

36.2B

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

79.2%

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

1.1%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

79.3