Energy Commodities Focus on ECB

Hope from European Central Bank in today’s meet is holding the market sentiments high. Investors are expecting ECB president Mario Draghi to announce the details of a new bond-buying program for euro-area governments that agree to certain terms. The program will involve unlimited purchases of bonds, which will be “sterilized” to ease concerns about printing money, according to Bloomberg.

 Thus, the effort of keeping the euro safe by ECB policy makers may support the shared currency to remain firm ahead of ECB statements later today.

Oil futures prices are holding above $96/bbl in international market currently driven by higher equity market and positive moving Euro.

Crude oil inventories fell by 7.2mn barrels, gasoline stocks declined by 2.3mn barrels, while distillates inventories declined by 132,000 barrels, as per API report. Expect the US energy department to show declining stocks data from the last week which may again support oil prices to remain high in the US session. With the closure of a good deal of production facilities in the Gulf last week due to Hurricane Isaac, inventories are expected to decline.

Crude oil exports from Iran have fallen below the symbolic threshold of 1mn barrels per day, according to an oil shipping tracker, reaching its lowest level in more than two decades as the impact of sanctions deepens. The decline was down to lower lifting from China and India – which have struggled to find tankers to transport Iranian oil due to a European Union insurance ban.

From economic data front, after the ECB we will see activity from the US including weekly unemployment numbers and the ADP jobs projections. And then tomorrow will unveil the all important Nonfarm payroll report. Market will be waiting for ADP data which is likely to improve in a slower pace.

Today session, we are expecting oil prices to react more to the ECB meet decision on its bond buying program and interest rate declaration. Overall, trend till European session is looking more bullish ahead of ECB meet and thereafter Inventory data from US energy department.

Natural gas prices are trading almost flat at $2.800/MMBTU. The US energy department projects that, natural gas storage is likely to increase in a slower pace than prior week, may support gas to trade on higher side. However, as per Commodity Weather Group LLC predicted mostly normal or below-normal temperatures in the eastern and southern U.S. from Sept. 10 to Sept. 14 after hot weather this week. Cooling demand in the U.S. may be 12 percent lower than average from Sept. 11 to Sept. 15, according to Weather Derivatives. This may keep gas prices under pressure ahead of inventory data releases.

Natural Gas Forecast September 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas market fell during the Wednesday session, as the $2.90 level holds as resistance still. We believe in the long-term downtrend in this market, and as such are willing to sell once we get below the lows of the Tuesday session.

We see the $2.60 level as a potential supportive and therefore preventative level for our short positions, but we think it is only minor and best. The longer-term downtrend will prevail sooner or later, and as such we fully expect to see $2.40 before too long.

As far as buying this market, we simply will not do it until we can get above the $3.30 level. We feel that there is a ton of resistance between here and there, and as such we would be more than willing to sell rallies that fail as well as the above-mentioned break of the Tuesday lows.

Natural Gas Forecast September 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast September 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas dipped a bit today ahead of the EIA injection report due the end of the week. Traders have been holding on tight to the commodity, hoping that increased demand will show a reduction in storage.

Otherwise NG is just trading high on the hopes of stimulus and the weakened USD. Tomorrow will see the beginning of the story unfold as Mr. Draghi gives his statement; parts of his plans were leaked today to the markets, but without details.

There is a new storm brewing in the gulf area, but not strong enough to cause any problems at this time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 05

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

 

1.8% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

   

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 06

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.2% 

-1.7% 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 06 00:30 Japan 

Sep 06 08:30 Spain 

Sep 06 08:50 France 

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 06 15:00 US 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Fundamentals

Wednesday morning, oil futures prices are holding almost flat at $95/bbl with a reaction to the inventory data expectation. As per US energy department crude oil stocks are likely to fall by more than 5 million barrels in the last week along with other petroleum stocks. However, refiners are likely to cut their capacity utilization due to hurricane season. On the other side, largest oil consuming nation US’s vehicle sales has been increased in the last month might be supporting prices slightly.

U.S. crude-oil futures fell Tuesday amid declines in broader markets as worries re-emerged about the economic outlook following weak data on the manufacturing sector. Prices tumbled from positive to negative territory early in the session as investors fled from a poor reading on the U.S. manufacturing sector. While U.S. fuel-product supplies have dropped in recent weeks compared with average levels, signs of weakness in the global economy, particularly in China, have tempered hopes about continued oil and fuel demand. Still, traders, worried about increasing tension in the Middle East, are reluctant to bet on big declines. Rhetoric from Israel and Iran about Iran’s nuclear program has grown more contentious in recent weeks.

ECB president Mario Draghi has said about buying bonds while may go for unchanged interest rate. Thus, ahead of tomorrow’s meet global market is getting skeptical which is showing in the equity market. The shared currency is likely to remain weak ahead of tomorrow’s meet and lower economic data expectation from euro-zone.

From economic data front, PMI numbers from Europe and German are likely to remain under growth which may weigh on the shared currency and weigh on oil prices. Increasing nonfarm productivity with slower pace rise in unit labor cost may support oil prices in the US session on speculation of higher demand on the back of increasing demand from US consumer.

Crude oil prices declined, as concerns about slowing economic growth and curbed demand for petroleum countered hopes for more monetary stimulus from central banks in the United States and Europe.

Global crude oil markets are reasonably well supplied, but there are signs of tightening in refined fuel products, as per the head of the International Energy Agency.

G7 finance ministers have voiced concerns about the effect of high oil prices on the global economy but officials in Italy and Germany last week indicated opposition to releasing strategic petroleum reserves.

Natural gas prices are trading almost flat at $2.854/MMBTU in Globex electronic platform. As per US energy department, natural gas storage is likely to increase in a slower pace than prior week, may support gas to trade on higher side.

An active hurricane season with presence of tropical storm Leslie which is becoming stronger but not moving much may keep threat of supply disturbances. This may support the trend in gas prices.

Natural gas futures rose nearly 2%, yesterday up for the fourth straight session along with stronger cash gas as industrial demand returned after the long US Labor Day holiday weekend.

The use of natural gas in U.S. trucks and fleet vehicles could skyrocket over the next two decades as low prices and new infrastructure provide incentive to switch to the cheap fuel was recently cited in an article in Reuters which is helping to support prices

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States slid by 13 last week to a 13-year low of 473, as per data from Houston-based oil services firm Baker Hughes showed.

Natural Gas Forecast September 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a positive session again on Tuesday, but failed to break above the $2.90 resistance level. This suggests to us that we are still in a very bearish market, and as such do not buy into this rally. In fact, if we break below the lows from the Tuesday session, we are more than willing to add to our position in this market.

Selling is the only way you can trade natural gas at this point, as the downtrend is so strong. Ultimately, there is far too much natural gas for the demand that’s out there, and as such we think that prices will continue to fall. Granted, we are going into the cooler months of the year for the northeastern United States which is typically a bullish season for natural gas, but we think that massive amount of supply will continue to weigh upon pricing.

Natural Gas Forecast September 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast September 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Monthly Fundamental Forecast September 2012

Outlook and Recommendation

Natural Gas ended a choppy month trading at 2.8003. Warmer weather and hurricanes in the gulf pushed prices up and down throughout the month. Now the hopes of stimulus from the Feds are pushing all commodities to higher levels.

Highest: 3.240

Lowest: 2.611

Difference: 0.629

Average: 2.808

Change %: -11.52

The most recent EIA data shows that it was another record-setting month for total consumption of natural gas for June with 1,847 Billion cubic feet (Bcf) consumed 12 percent above the previous high for total consumption reached for June in 2011. Deliveries of natural gas to the electric power sector of 884 Bcf led the strong consumption trend, again reflecting continued displacement of coal with natural gas and coming in at more than 25 percent of electric power use for June 2011. Dry natural gas production for June stayed relatively stable for the third straight month at 1,961 Bcf or 65.4 Bcf per day.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

The most recent EIA inventory report showed:

Working gas in storage was 3,374 Bcf as of Friday, August 24, 2012, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 66 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 429 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 361 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,013 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 109 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 47 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 189 Bcf above the 5-year average of 935 Bcf after a net injection of 16 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 63 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 3 Bcf. At 3,374 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

 

September 2012 Major Economic Events

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 5, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.857 adding 0.058 again today. Speculators hoping for monetary stimulus from the Feds have been buying up almost all commodities as the US dollar weakens and with the hopes of increased demands that will result with the injection of stimulus into the economy.

There are no storms in the gulf region at this time and temperatures in the US are moderate, therefore there is no increased demand for the energy future at this time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

 

AUD

 

 

Current Account 

-11.8B

 

-12.2B 

 

-13.0B 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Unemployment Change 

38.20K

 

 

 

-27.80K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6 

 

50.0 

 

49.8 

   

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 05

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

-0.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Services PMI 

51.5 

51.0 

 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

1.8% 

1.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5% 

1.7% 

 Sep. 06

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.2% 

-1.7% 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Natural Gas Forecast September 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a slightly soft session during the Monday trading day as the volumes absolutely dried up due to Labor Day in the United States. However, we are right at an area where we would expect to see a lot of resistance, so the fact that today lost a little bit isn’t much of a surprise in our opinion.

The fundamental outlook for natural gas still states that we will how far much more supply than demand, and as such we continue to sell this contract every time we get the chance. In the general vicinity that we are at right now, we would be more than happy to see a resistive candle from which to sell. In fact, we think the $3.00 level is going to be a bit of a barrier for the buyers to get through.

Looking at this chart, it appears that we have broken down below support, and are still retesting it for resistance. Because of this, we would be more than happy to sell a shooting star, bearish engulfing, or even just long red candle that appears between here and the $3.00 level. We still see the trend is been very much to the downside, and the fact that we have broken to a fresh lower low over the last couple weeks does suggest that the downtrend is picking up.

It should also be noted that we are coming out of the lowest liquidity time of the year as traders will focus less on the beach, and more on their charts. As volume picks up, we fully expect the sellers to step back into the market and push prices down. Obviously, we will look for the technical setups as usual, but overall the sentiment is pretty bearish on this commodity.

On a break of the lows from the Friday session, we would be more than willing to start selling again as it would be a confirmed “hanging man”, which of course is very bearish. This also would show that the resistance area has held up as well. We of course would also sell any of the resistive candles and mentioned previously in this article. As for buying, we aren’t even considering it until we get above the $3.30 level.

Natural Gas Forecast September 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast September 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.788 almost unchanged today, as commodities remain strong and the US dollar weakened with the hopes of Fed stimulus come September 13th. There is no supporting data for natural gas and US markets are closed for the holiday so volume is light and there is no action here.

The EIA reports that consumer demand is down, as weather remains fairly steady and the National Hurricane Center says that Kirk has dissipated and there are no storms threatening the Gulf region at this time.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Actual versus Forecast Economic Releases. US and CAD markets are closed for a holiday

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 03

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

1.2%

 

1.4% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Capital Spending 

7.70%

 

8.90% 

 

3.30% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) 

-0.7%

 

1.0% 

 

-3.7% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

0.2% 

 

1.2% 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.60

 

 

 

47.80 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-15.5B

 

-8.8B 

 

-10.3B 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

0.56%

 

0.25% 

 

-0.23% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.2%

 

4.3% 

 

3.3% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

46.7

 

49.0 

 

48.6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

43.60

 

45.00 

 

44.30 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

46.2 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

 

45.1 

 

45.1 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

45.3 

 

45.3 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

49.5

 

46.2 

 

45.2 

   

WEEKLY

 

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.0 

 

49.8 

 

 

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

14:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

5.0K 

 

14.0K 

 

 

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

Sep. 07

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

58.0 

 

62.8 

   

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Gas and Oil Surge on Hopes of Stimulus

Nymex crude oil prices gained by 0.3 percent in the last week taking cues from expectations that Tropical Storm Isaac will disrupt the oil fields in Gulf of Mexico coupled with weakness in the DX.

Additionally, statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that he won’t rule out for stimulus measures to boost the economy acted as a sportive factor for the prices. However, further upside in the prices was capped as a result of unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories.

U.S. October crude rose $1.85, or 1.96 percent, to settle at $96.47 a barrel. For the month, U.S. crude rose $8.41, or 9.55 percent, a second straight monthly rise and the biggest percentage gain since October 2011.

U.S. crude futures rose on Friday by 1.96% and posted a 9.55% gain for August after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed stood ready to boost the economy if necessary, though he did not give any definite signal that more monetary easing was on the way.

Crude prices got support from reports Germany and Italy remain opposed to a release of emergency consumer oil stocks, which created further uncertainty about the timing of any possible release as sanctions on Iranian exports have tightened the market and boosted prices.

U.S. crude futures were steady on Monday due to the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend and also a possible correction after a rally on Friday over Bernanke’s speech.

China manufacturing activities declined to the lowest level since 2009, as data reported today early morning in the form of HSBC flash manufacturing index. Causing concern of declining manufacturing activities in second largest oil consuming nation might be weighing on oil prices currently. However, most of the Asian equities are trading high on speculation of easing by major central banks of the World. Fed’s chairman Bernanke positive hint on Q3 in last Jackson Hole meet ahead of ECB meet on 6th September are holding the expectation of easing high. In the upcoming ECB meet, central bank is likely to keep interest rate unchanged however, may go for bond buying program to support the debt ridden countries.

Economic data today include PMI numbers from Europe and German which are likely to remain under growth may limit the gains during European session. The Labor Day holiday is being celebrated in the US, NYMEX will remain closed

The National Hurricane Center says that, tropical storm Kirk has become post tropical storm which may not create concern of supply disturbances in Gulf region. However, already 90 percent of production shut down has already happened in the last week. Thus, oil market tightening may support oil prices to take positive cues.

Natural gas prices are trading almost flat at $2.800/MMBTU in Globex electronic platform. U.S. natural gas futures ended higher on Friday for a third day, by warm weather that should boost air conditioning demand for the next few days, but overfed supplies and the milder mid month outlook were expected to keep buyers wary.

Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange ended up 5.1 cents, or 1.9 percent, at $2.799 per million British thermal units after trading between $2.707 and $2.801.

China might weigh on gas prices. However, speculation of easing by major central banks is keeping the sentiments high, which may support gas prices in today’s session.

The US Energy department said that natural gas demand has been increased in the last week with rising consumption by residential sector. So, we may expect gas prices to remain on higher side for today session.

Natural Gas Forecast September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets initially fell during the Friday session, but bounced off of the $2.70 level in order to form a hammer. This hammer shaped candle is at the top of the recent up move, and it should be noted that the $2.80 level where it sends currently is the beginning of serious resistance.

Because of this, we feel that a break below the hammer lows at $2.70 would be a significant sell signal. We are currently looking for weak candles to sell all the way up to the $3.25 level, but truthfully would prefer them below the $3.00 level. As for buying this market, we have no interest in it currently.

Natural Gas Forecast September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast for the week of September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a fairly supportive week over the last five sessions as we saw the market bounce in order to form a hammer by the time we closed on Friday. It appears that the $2.60 level has held as support, and as such we remain within the up trending channel that has been a feature of this market since the middle of March.

However, we can make a case for a bearish flag although it does have a little bit of a ridiculous target. Nonetheless, it suggests the same thing to us: that if we break this up trending line that we bounced off of this previous week, the market will continue much, much lower. In fact, it’s what were expecting sooner or later. However, we fully understand that the market looks ready to bounce at this point in time. The trend is decidedly bearish in this market though, and as such we are simply going to look for a decent sell signal. Breaking the bottom of this hammer from the previous five sessions would be an excellent sell signal, as would some type of week candle between here and the $3.25 handle.

Natural Gas Forecast for the week of September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast for the week of September 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 3-7, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the winter. Natural Gas is growing much faster than either of its non-renewable fossil fuel competitors, oil and coal.

Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.

When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.

A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Natural Gas  was driven this week by Hurricane Isaac until it make landfall mid week and the threat dissipated. Although global sentiment saw commodities raise on Friday after Mr. Bernanke’s speech. As the USD fell to recent lows, dollar denominated commodities soared.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 31, 2012

2.803

2.757

2.808

2.708

1.56%

Aug 30, 2012

2.760

2.697

2.767

2.655

2.36%

Aug 29, 2012

2.696

2.631

2.701

2.611

2.47%

Aug 28, 2012

2.631

2.679

2.692

2.626

-1.76%

Aug 27, 2012

2.678

2.775

2.792

2.663

-3.46%

This week’s injection report from the EIA showed higher than expected increases but as you can see from the chart above, the report had little effect on prices, as NG climbed steadily this week.

Natural Gas is expected to decline after the elation from Mr. Bernanke’s address wears off.

As per US energy department, gas storage has been increased by 66BCF, higher than prior week and survey also. Though consumption has been increased in the last week after two weeks of fall, the demand level is still low in comparison to last year at this same time. Active hurricane season has created supply disturbances and weekly supply declined by 2.84% in the last week. As per National Hurricane Centre, tropical storm Isaac has turned as depression inland, which eased the concern of supply disturbances. As per U.S. Treasury Department, International Energy Agency, a 28-member group of oil consuming countries are prepared to call upon a meet to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Tier 1 and 2 Economic Releases for August 27-31, 2012

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 27

SEK

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.30%

 

0.20% 

-0.30% 

 

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.3

 

102.6 

103.2 

 

EUR

German Current Assessment 

111.2

 

110.8 

111.5 

 

EUR

German Business Expectations 

94.2

 

95.0 

95.5 

Aug. 28

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.6%

 

 

2.8% 

 

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

 

5.9 

5.9 

 

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

60.6

 

66.0 

65.4 

Aug. 29

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

1.0% 

7.8% 

 

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

 

1.50 

1.41 

 

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

1.5% 

 

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.4%

 

1.0% 

-1.4% 

 

USD

Beige Book 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

2.0%

 

3.0% 

5.7% 

Aug. 30

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.2% 

0.2% 

 

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-17.3%

 

-5.0% 

-1.0% 

 

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.4% 

7.7% 

 

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

8K 

9K 

 

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

0.2% 

 

CAD

Current Account 

-16.0B

 

-15.0B 

-10.2B 

 

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

0.0% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

374K

 

370K 

374K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3316K

 

3307K 

3321K 

Aug. 31

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

1.4% 

 

JPY

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

4.3% 

 

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

-0.6% 

 

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

0.4% 

 

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.1% 

-0.8% 

 

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

2.4% 

 

EUR

Unemployment Rate 

11.3%

 

11.3% 

11.3% 

 

CAD

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

USD

Chicago PMI 

53.0

 

53.5 

53.7 

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.3

 

73.6 

73.6 

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010

Average: 3.836 over this period

Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012

 

WEEKLY

 

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 04

05:30

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

50.0 

 

49.8 

 

 

Sep. 05

02:30

AUD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

14:00

CAD

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

Sep. 06

02:30

AUD

Employment Change 

5.0K 

 

14.0K 

 

 

 

02:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

Sep. 07

15:00

CAD

Ivey PMI 

58.0 

 

62.8 

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.744 after Mr. Bernanke’s presentation. Yesterday’s EIA inventory report showed a jump in inventory, which is weighing on prices. The overall energy pack is up today on the hopes of global stimulus, including the Feds, the ECB and the Chinese.

As per US energy department, gas storage has been increased by 66BCF, higher than prior week and survey also. Though consumption has been increased in the last week after two weeks of fall, the demand level is still low in comparison to last year at this same time. Active hurricane season has created supply disturbances and weekly supply declined by 2.84% in the last week. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Isaac has turned as depression inland, which eased the concern of supply disturbances.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 31

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian GDP (YoY) 

5.5%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.20%

 

0.50% 

 

-1.40% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.3%

 

11.3% 

 

11.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

53.0 

 

53.5 

 

53.7 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.3 

 

73.6 

 

73.6 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

 

Previous

 

 

Sep 03 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

 

 

48.6 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Natural Gas Forecast August 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell originally during the Thursday session, but bounced in order to form a fairly bullish candle. We close right around the $2.75 level, which is the beginning of serious noise to the upside. Because of this, we think that resistance will step back into the marketplace and we will see a selling opportunity over the next day or two.

We are more than willing to sell resistive candles all the way up to the $3.00 level, and believe that eventually the downtrend will take over yet again. The breakdown over the last several weeks needed a bounce, and it looks like that’s what we gotten. This will allow more people to step in and sell this already beat down market.

 

Natural Gas Forecast August 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast August 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

Oil and Gas in Holding Pattern

Finally the day has arrived the much awaited 31st August where all the eyes are at Fed Chairman’s Bernanke speech in Jackson Hole’s meet. Today Mr. Bernanke has more press coverage then the President or the Queen and more fans and headlines then the leading actor or singer. Move over Madonna.

Thoughts of easing by the Federal Reserve are there overshadowing the global financial market which is reflecting on the regional equity market.

Contraction in Japan’s industrial production reported today along with lower manufacturing activities concern in China is adding pressure on markets.

The third largest consumer of energy is Japan’s vehicle production which has increased by 16.7% in the last month, but at a substantially lower increase then the prior month of 20% rate. This will affect the import of crude oil to Japan and lessen demand.

The National Hurricane Center, says that tropical storm Isaac has turned as depression inland, which eased the concern of supply disturbances.

The U.S. Treasury Department, International Energy Agency, a 28-member group of oil consuming countries are prepared to call upon a meet to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied.

Crude oil prices are trading almost flat at $94.66/bbl in the international market.

From economic data front, the eurozone unemployment rate is likely to remain high at 11.3%, whereas German retail trade may climb up slightly. The euro is likely to remain subdued for today’s session ahead Mr. Bernanke.

Form US, declining wholesale inventory may reflect on higher factory orders for the last month. So, a little spike can be seen during US session. Ahead of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, oil prices are likely to trade under pressure with a speculation of releasing oil reserves and prevailing easing concern by major central bank.

Natural gas prices are likely to remain under pressure today. Yesterday the US energy department report showed that, gas storage has been increased by 66BCF, higher than prior week and survey also. Though consumption has been increased in the last week after two weeks of fall, the demand level is still low in comparison to last year at this same time. Active hurricane season has created supply disturbances and weekly supply declined by 2.84% in the last week. 

Gold Fundamental Analysis August 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1662.05. Ambiguity prevailed in the market over the possible monetary easing by the leading central banks to shore up the economic growth, keeping markets in tight ranges. Investors choose a wait and watch approach prior to the US Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech in Jackson Hole Symposium starting tomorrow in Wyoming. However, comments by the Chinese Premier that China may consider to buy more EU government bonds after evaluating risks soothed markets to certain extend. Base metals in LME were seen rebounding following the comments by the Chinese Premier. LME copper inched higher after three consecutive sessions of decline.

Nickel gained the most, rising about one per cent. Base metals were seen paring initial losses and inching higher. Yet, investors stayed cautious ahead of US weekly jobs data and Bernanke’s speech tomorrow capping gains. Meanwhile, precious metal continued to move in tight ranges, looking out for cues for further directional moves amid speculation roving over QE3.

Gold held steady in listless trading ahead of the speech from the US Federal Reserve Chairman, due on Friday. Fresh economic stimulus measures are widely anticipated strengthening hopes of another round of quantitative easing from US. Quantitative easing from central banks most likely lifts the inflation outlook which could benefit bullion due to its inflation hedge appeal. Even as gold continues to look towards currencies for direction, the Dollar and Euro remained steady due to cautious investors staying away from speculative trading before the key Jackson Hole symposium. Central banks and finance ministers are scheduled to meet at Jackson Hole on August 31 and September 01. Apart from the meeting, investors will also keenly watch the outcome of US Personal Consumption Expenditure and jobless claims data for an immediate direction on bullion. Physical demand from India, the biggest consumer of gold remains steady even during peak festive and marriage season due to record high domestic prices. At the same time demand for gold backed exchange traded funds stay unchanged.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 30

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-17.3%

 

-5.0% 

 

-1.0% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.4% 

 

7.7% 

   

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.60% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

8K 

 

9K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

5.96% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Current Account 

-16.0B

 

-15.0B 

 

-10.2B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

374K

 

370K 

 

374K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3316K

 

3307K 

 

3321K 

   

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Aug.31 

07:00

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

-0.7% 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5% 

2.4% 

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

53.5 

53.7 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6 

73.6 

Government Bond Auctions

Aug 31  14:30  UK  Publication of the Q4 Gilt operations calendar

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis August 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 2.696. Natural gas futures rallied nearly 1%, on news that Hurricane Isaac has prompted more production to go offline and on fears that flooding from the storm could damage the region’s natural-gas infrastructure.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 30

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-17.3%

 

-5.0% 

 

-1.0% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

3.4%

 

2.4% 

 

7.7% 

   

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.60% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

8K 

 

9K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

5.96% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Current Account 

-16.0B

 

-15.0B 

 

-10.2B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

374K

 

370K 

 

374K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3316K

 

3307K 

 

3321K 

   

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Aug.31 

07:00

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

-0.7% 

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5% 

2.4% 

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

53.5 

53.7 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6 

73.6 

Government Bond Auctions

Aug 31  14:30  UK  Publication of the Q4 Gilt operations calendar

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

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Sep 07  15:30  Italy

 

Metals and Energy Ignore Eco Data

Yesterday, markets were fairly quiet, with low volume and little activity. Traders seemed to be totally fixated on Friday’s address by Mr. Bernanke and the upcoming ECB meeting. Almost every news article fundamental and technical analysis report was focused on Jackson Hole and central banks. The upwardly revised US GDP or the skyrocketing housing data had little effect on the currency markets. This morning, Japanese retail sales tumbled, printing well below forecast and still no response.

Yesterday gold futures declined, as upwardly revised figures for US economic growth triggered profit booking in the precious metal after its recent rally above $1,675 per ounce, on speculation of new stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, increased to 1,289.52 tons, as on August 28. Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 9,763.53 tons, as on August 28.

The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 81.551, compared to 81.334…

Copper fell to a one-week low in heavy volume on Wednesday, pressured by signs of economic slowing in metals demand from China and nervousness ahead of central bankers meeting later this week.

Copper consumption in China, the world’s biggest user, is expected to expand this year at the slowest rate since 1997 as economic growth cools; according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Copper usage may increase 5% to about 7.7mn tons supported by demand from the power industry.

Japan’s nickel imports from Indonesia rose 85% from a year ago to 190,445 tons in July, as per customs-cleared data.

Crude and Brent oil prices declined after US crude stockpiles unexpectedly gained and Hurricane Isaac made landfall, reducing the threat to offshore platforms and rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.  Still WTI crude oil only dipped 1.00 to trade at 95.00.

Japanese crude oil imports from Iran fell sharply in July from a year ago, but imports continued despite a halt in loadings by Japanese buyers to avoid running afoul of a European Union ban on insuring cargoes from the Middle East nation. Japans July crude imports from Iran totaled 126,726 barrels per day last month (624,585 kilolitres), down 52.5% from the same month a year ago.

Crude stocks, excluding oil held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose by 3.78mn barrels to 364.52mn barrels, gasoline inventories fell 1.51mn barrels last week to 201.23mn barrels and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 873,000 barrels to 126.08mn barrels, as per EIA.

Natural gas rallied nearly 1%, on news that Hurricane Isaac has prompted more production to go offline and on fears that flooding from the storm could damage the region’s natural-gas infrastructure.

Natural Gas Forecast August 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets had a positive session during the Wednesday trading day to pop back up to the $2.68 level. After the reason break down below the 2.70 cents level, it makes sense that we could have a retest of that area for resistance, but we see absolutely no reason to think why it won’t hold. The market is in a vicious downtrend over the last couple of years, and nothing has changed fundamentally that makes us believe that the natural gas markets are about to turn around. With this being said, we are looking for some type of resistive candle near the $2.70 level in order to sell more of this contract. As for buying, we simply won’t do it.

Natural Gas Forecast August 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
Natural Gas Forecast August 30, 2012, Technical Analysis