Novavax Is Down By 6%, Here Is Why

Key Insights

  • Novavax vaccine gets approval in Japan, but the news fails to provide any support to the stock. 
  • Vaccine stocks remain under pressure as traders worry that demand for coronavirus vaccines will decline in the upcoming years. 
  • Novavax is cheap at just 4 forward P/E, but falling earnings estimates signal that analysts remain concerned about the company’s future performance. 

Novavax Stock Declines Amid Broad Weakness In Vaccine Stocks

Shares of Novavax  moved to yearly lows after Japanese Health Ministry committee approved the company’s coronavirus vaccine.

While the news is positive for Novavax, the market believes that the company is “late to the party”. The world’s focus is moving away from the coronavirus pandemic, and it remains to be seen whether vaccines will enjoy strong demand in 2023 and beyond.

Shares of other vaccine makers are also under pressure during the current trading session. Moderna stock is down by 4%, while BioNTech stock is down by almost 7%.

It should be noted that recent reports about a potential waiver of intellectual property rights for coronavirus vaccines and treatments also put pressure on vaccine-related stocks.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

Analysts expect that Novavax will report earnings of $22.84 per share in the current year and earnings of $14.36 per share in the next year, so the stock is trading at just 4 forward P/E.

However, analyst estimates have declined materially in recent months, and traders are worried that they could move lower. In addition, it is not clear whether demand for coronavirus vaccines will stay strong in the upcoming years.

Earnings visibility is a problem for all vaccines makers, but Novavax stock is under more pressure as the company’s vaccine has lost competition for market share.

In this light, it remains to be seen whether speculative traders will try to “catch the falling knife” and buy Novavax stock at yearly lows. At this point, it looks that the stock has a good chance to develop additional downside momentum in the upcoming trading sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 18% Today

Key Insights

  • Vaccine stocks rally amid a major coronavirus outbreak in China.
  • Moderna starts a clinical trial of an experimental HIV trimer mRNA vaccine.
  • Earnings visibility remains the key problem for Moderna.

Moderna Stock Rallies As China Faces A New Wave Of Coronavirus

Shares of Moderna gained strong upside momentum after the company announced  that “the first participant has been dosed in a clinical trial of an experimental human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) trimer mRNA vaccine (mRNA-1574)”.

The company noted that while developing a vaccine against HIV has been difficult to achieve, it believed that mRNA technology offered a new opportunity.

The market has been worried that Moderna’s revenues will drop when the coronavirus pandemic comes to an end. The development of the HIV vaccine boosts hopes that Moderna will not be a “one-trick pony”, and the company will ultimately find other sources of revenue.

It should be noted that other vaccine-related stocks like BioNTech and Novavax have also been moving higher today as China was forced to impose new curbs amid the rapid spread of coronavirus in Shenzhen.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Earnings estimates for Moderna have been moving lower in recent weeks. Currently, analysts expect that the company will report earnings of $27.15 per share in 2022. The company’s profits are projected to decline to $10.13 per share in 2023, so the stock is trading at roughly 16 forward P/E for the next year.

It should be noted that earnings visibility remains the key problem for Moderna as it is not clear whether the company will be able to find additional sources of revenue when the revenue from its coronavirus vaccine declines.

While the recent news on the HIV vaccine make a good headline, it should not help Moderna financially in the near future. However, Moderna stock will remain a decent choice for those traders who are willing to bet on the long-term success of the mRNA technology.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

What Traders Have To Know To Start Their Week

Ukrainian-Russian negotiations

The good news, Russia is now agreeing to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “without preconditions”. The bad news, Putin ordered the Russian army’s nuclear deterrence forces to go on “combat alert”. According to a report from Russian state news operator TASS, Putin said he was giving the order because “top officials in NATO’s leading countries have been making aggressive statements against our country.”

A senior U.S. defense official, responding to those reports on Sunday said, “we have no reason to doubt the validity of this order. But how it manifested itself, I don’t think is completely clear yet.” “We believe,” the official added, “that this is not only an unnecessary step for [Putin] to take, but an escalatory one — unnecessary because Russia has never been under threat by the West or by NATO, and certainly wasn’t under any threat by Ukraine, and escalatory because it’s clearly potentially putting at play forces that if there’s a miscalculation could make things much, much more dangerous.”

At the same time, Germany is now saying because of Putin’s latest moves they are going to dramatically increase their military spending. In the past 48-hours there has also been a massive increase in global sanctions and banking restrictions against Russia. Many political and military leaders are saying this has turned into a massive miscalculation by Putin and the global blowback is perhaps much more than he may have anticipated.

Unfortunately, many worry that this might be like backing an opossum into a corner, where they tend to get very aggressive, pull out all their tricks, and make one last big stand. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen and that calmer heads prevail.

Sanctions

The other concern for the stock market is that this battle lingers on for an extended period of time and sanctions create larger global wrinkles and add more fuel to the already blazing inflationary fires. If banking sanctions get strong enough and are well supported globally it could crack the Russian ruble and cause massive hyperinflation inside Russia.

For what it’s worth, the ruble plunged in overnight trading by -28% to a fresh record low. Russia’s Central Bank is saying their banking system remains stable, yet rating agency S&P Global recently cut Russia’s debt rating to “junk” status. There are also talks that deepening banking sanctions against Russia may lead to some contagion or type of negative dominoing effect into other banks inside Europe and as well in other nations.

Wall Street bulls argue that all of this uncertainty and fear of global contagion will work to keep the Fed less hawkish and more likely to take a much slower approach towards raising interest rates.

In other words, the Fed knows the market is already spooked so they won’t want to make any sudden or unexpected moves that might cause some type of financial avalanche or stampede towards the exits.

Ultimately I think the market is most worried about “inflation” and how the Fed is going to turn their boat around in order to slow things down. Unfortunately, the situation with Russia has only made those matters worse and the Fed’s job even more difficult.

Most investors believe a rate hike of 50 basis points is more than likely off the table for the Fed’s upcoming March 15-16 meeting, with Wall Street widely expecting an increase of just 25 basis points. Unfortunately, however, there is little central banks can do to alleviate commodity supply shocks and the inevitable inflation effects that tend to follow. This has bears warning that much more aggressive Fed action is no longer a matter of “if” but rather “when.”

Data to watch

It’s worth noting that the PCE Prices Index, one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges, rose to a new 40-year high of +6.1% versus last year, with the core rate (excludes food and energy) at a new 38-year high of +5.2%.

Investors this week are very anxious to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. A few Fed officials last week said that the situation with Russia should not change the central bank’s plans to tighten policy but investors would like more insights as to how aggressive the Fed might be willing to get in its inflation fight.

Some of the more extreme hawkish views on Wall Street have been talking about the possibilities of price controls and/or raw material rationing, though most see such drastic measures as far fetched.

This week’s economic data highlight will be the February Employment Report on Friday with most expecting a gain of around +500,000 jobs. Today, economic data includes the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey as well as advance reads for International Trade, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories. Earnings of note include Lordstown Motor, Lucid, Novavax, Vroom, and Zoom Video.

Wall Street Week Ahead Earnings: Zoom, Salesforce, Domino’s, Dollar Tree and Broadcom in Focus

Traders have been rattled by geopolitical tensions over the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which has caused the global stock market to suffer. The S&P 500 plunged into correction territory. If tensions continue for long, analysts fear that it will be harder for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates after next month’s hike. Due to this, investors sought safe-haven assets and U.S. Treasury yields fell as tensions between Ukraine and Russia increased. In addition, investors will focus on December quarter earnings for stocks that are economically sensitive, which should show better profits than technology stocks amid surging inflation.

Earnings Calendar For The Week Of February 28

Monday (February 28)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ZOOM

The San Jose, California-based communications technology company Zoom is expected to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $0.67 per share, which represents a year-over-year decline of nearly 24% from $0.88 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The company, which provides video telephony and online chat services through a cloud-based peer-to-peer software platform, would post revenue growth of 19% to $1.05 billion.

“We have seen a reluctance of investors around Zoom given recent performance of WFH winners. Look to FY23 guide as opportunity to reset Street expectations, giving investors a cleaner path to getting involved. Remain OW on early days company at upselling large installed base with ancillary products,” noted Meta Marshall, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Zoom has established its position as the leader in video conferencing, now a growth market. Company has meaningful competitive moat built on more than just architecture. Position within customers makes an attractive opportunity to expand into broader UC market. Early wins encouraging. Opportunities to expand platform remain. Manageable churn post-COVID as move to hybrid work setups continues.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE FEBRUARY 28

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
AMBA Ambarella $-0.04
HPQ HP $1.04
NVAX Novavax $0.36
SBAC SBA Communications $2.62
SDC SmileDirectClub $-0.28
WDAY Workday $-0.19

 

Tuesday (March 1)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: SALESFORCE.COM, DOMINO’S PIZZA

SALESFORCE.COM: The San Francisco, California-based software company is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $0.75 per share, which represents a year-over-year decline of over 27% from $1.04 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

However, the leading provider of enterprise cloud computing solutions would post revenue growth of nearly 25% to $7.24 billion up from $5.82 billion a year earlier. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least.

Salesforce.com (CRM) is down 35% since reporting F3Q vs. IGV down 25% due to software selloff, investor fears around demand-pull forward and MuleSoft, and tougher compares in 1HF23. Our survey indicated 88% expect their pipelines to grow with 37% expecting growth of 20%+ in F23. Despite a tough set-up heading into the Q, expectations are low. CRM offers attractive risk-reward as it trades close to trough levels at 5x ’23 rev. vs. comps at 9x (40% discount). Maintain Buy,” noted Brent Thill, equity analyst at Jefferies.

DOMINO’S PIZZA: The world’s largest pizza restaurant by sales is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings of $4.30 per share, which represents year-over-year growth of about 12% from $3.85 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The Ann Arbor Michigan-based company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least. The largest pizza chain in the world would post revenue growth of 2% to around $1.38 billion from $1.36 billion a year earlier.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MARCH 1

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
AZO AutoZone $16.42
AVID Avid Technology $0.33
BIDU Baidu $1.49
DPZ Domino’s Pizza $4.30
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals $2.96
JWN Nordstrom $1.05
ROST Ross Stores $0.97
TGT Target $2.85

 

Wednesday (March 2)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: DOLLAR TREE

The Chesapeake, Virginia-based company Dollar Tree is expected to report earnings of $1.78 per share in the fourth quarter, down over 16% from $2.13 per share seen in the same period a year ago. But the discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less would post revenue growth of more than 5% to $7.13 billion.

“While supply chain disruptions and associated costs are top of mind given the unexpected magnitude of these costs in 2Q and ongoing impact in 3Q, we believe that Dollar Tree’s price-increase initiative will likely be a focal point for investors. More specifically, we think investors will look to better understand customer receptivity to these price increases, the degree to which these price increases can mitigate the aforementioned supply chain costs, and to what extent the company is utilizing higher price point items to diversify merchandising and sourcing,” noted Randal J. Konik, equity analyst at Jefferies.

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MARCH 2

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch $1.59
BOX Box Inc. $-0.06
PDCO Patterson Cos. $0.50
SGFY Signify Health $0.02
SPLK Splunk $-1.08
VEEV Veeva Systems $0.59

 

Thursday (March 3)

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: BROADCOM

Chipmaker and software infrastructure supplier Broadcom is expected to report earnings per share of $8.08 in the fiscal first quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of over 22% from $6.61 per share seen in the same period a year ago.

The San Jose, California-based semiconductor manufacturer would post revenue growth of nearly 14% to $7.6 billion. The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in most of the quarters in the last two years, at least.

Broadcom (AVGO) is a compelling franchise in semis with diversified end-market exposure, product cycle momentum in wireless and networking, and market leadership. Furthermore, we take a more constructive view than investors on the company’s software strategy, particularly its purchase of Symantec,” noted Joseph Moore, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“While sentiment has gradually improved, AVGO is still trading below the SOX on a P/E basis despite superior margins and FCF. We see an increase in 5G $ content, a rebound in enterprise, and reacceleration of cloud as tailwinds through 2021; and with the company’s net leverage reduced meaningfully it should be in the position to continue to execute on tuck-in deals in software.”

TAKE A LOOK AT OUR EARNINGS CALENDAR FOR THE FULL RELEASES FOR THE MARCH 3

TICKER COMPANY EPS FORECAST
BBY Best Buy $2.81
BIG Big Lots $2.19
COST Costco Wholesale $2.54
GPS Gap $-0.12
KR Kroger $0.70
WB Weibo $0.75

 

Friday (March 4)

No major earnings are scheduled for release.

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 6% Today

Key Insights

  • Vaccine stocks remain under pressure due to poor earnings visibility
  • Moderna is set to release its earnings report on February 24
  • The stock will need strong upside catalysts to change the current trend

Moderna Stock Falls As Traders Stay Bearish On Vaccine Stocks

Shares of Moderna gained downside momentum after the company announced a 15-year strategic collaboration agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific, which will produce the company’s coronavirus vaccine and other mRNA medicines in the pipeline.

However, the announcement did not serve as a bearish catalyst for Moderna, and the stock moved lower due to general market pressure and expectations for the end of the pandemic. Other vaccine stocks like BioNTech and Novavax have also found themselves under pressure.

Interestingly, analyst estimates for Moderna’s 2022 earnings have been moving higher in recent weeks. Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $28.32 per share this year, so the stock is trading at just 5 forward P/E.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Poor earnings visibility remains the key problem for Moderna. In the near term, the company’s financial results will be very strong, but the market questions the company’s ability to repeat this performance in 2023 and beyond.

In addition, Moderna is set to release its full-year 2021 report on February 24, so some traders prefer to cut their risks ahead of this event.

To have sustainable upside, Moderna must provide investors with a clear path to future profitability without the current reliance on the coronavirus vaccine. It remains to be seen whether this is realistic in the near term.

In case the market remains skeptical about Moderna’s future revenue, the stock will remain under pressure together with other vaccine stocks. The current market consensus implies that Omicron was the last significant variant of coronavirus, and the end of the pandemic is near. While this scenario is bullish for the world economy, it is bearish for Moderna.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 13% Today

Moderna Stock Drops As Skepticism About Future Vaccine Sales Grows

Shares of Moderna gained downside momentum after the FDA postponed a meeting on the authorization of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for children aged from six months to 5 years.

Moderna stock is already down by more than 70% from the highs that were reached back in August 2021, but there is no rush to buy the stock as traders question the future of vaccine sales.

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $28.32 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at 5 forward P/E. However, the market is worried that the company’s earnings will dive in 2023 as demand for vaccines may decrease.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

The dynamics of Moderna stock will depend on the market’s evaluation of the future trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic. The recent protests around the world highlighted people’s pandemic fatigue, and political pressure to ease coronavirus-related restrictions is clearly growing.

In addition, the rapid spread of Omicron did not lead to a collapse of the healthcare system, boosting hopes that the pandemic is finally coming to an end. This is bullish for the economy but bearish for the stocks of vaccine makers.

The original enthusiasm towards Moderna’s stock has almost evaporated, and the market is worried that the company is a “one-trick pony”. It is hard to predict the vaccine sales in 2023 and beyond as they will depend on the course of the pandemic and on whether any variants emerge, so traders will likely follow general market sentiment.

At this point, the market completely ignores the coronavirus pandemic and is focused on inflation and Fed’s interest rate decisions. In this environment, Moderna stock may have more room to fall in the upcoming trading sessions, together with other vaccine stocks like BioNTech and Novavax.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Are Biotech Stocks Still Worth Buying in 2022?

Even as most countries started seeing rapid vaccination campaigns being rolled out, major pharmaceutical companies including Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer saw their stocks slide as the year drew to a close.

Volatile Markets and Underperforming Stocks

At close on Tuesday, 8 February, vaccine makers, including Novavax (NVAX) and Moderna (MNRA) fell by 11.97% and 4.43%, respectively. Novavax is down more than 60% since its peak in November, with Pfizer (PFE) slipping 8.07% over the month, and still declining well into February.

On the other hand, J&J (JNJ) stocks fell by almost 1%, at 0.91% on average over one month between January and February 2022. The newest data showed that new pharmaceutical research, tools, and other medical devices helped give the company a boost in the fourth quarter.

The S&P 500 has been bearish in recent days, rallying red with day-to-day losses at the opening bell.

Over the last year, biotech stocks on the iShares Biotechnology ETF were down by 12.8%, below the Russell 1000’s return of 21%. Even as the new year closed in, major biotech stocks would slip below their peaks.

Now as the S&P is slipping out of control, biotech stocks look to regain their reputation on the market. Investors are reconsidering whether these stocks are still worth the high risk for the year ahead?

Approval Rates are Dropping

But it’s not just a volatile market that has kept biotech stocks from reclaiming their position among investors. Tightening of approval from drug and pharmaceutical regulators such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has left the lucrative sentiment for biotech stocks erratic.

Approval rates from not just governments, but the general public have also been decreasing, as evidence reveals that some vaccines aren’t as effective as initially proclaimed. When vaccines were first designed to boost immunity against alpha and beta variants, researchers found that newer and more contagious variants have decreased vaccine efficacy.

Although vaccines can perhaps still provide the needed immunity against the novel coronavirus, some are speculating that newer and more infectious variants of the virus will lower the trajectory of not just public support, but also how biotech stocks perform on the market.

J&J Shares a Different Outlook

Vaccine maker, J&J claimed that their vaccine sales will help boost annual revenue by more than 46% in a media release published by The Economic Times on 25 January. Vaccine sales in 2021 brought in more than $1.62 billion at the start of the fourth quarter. Once the company approved booster shots for its initial single-shot dose, sales jumped nearly double, ending the quarter with $2.48 billion in vaccine sales for the year.

Earnings for 2021 were around $2.13 per share, with sales topping more than $42.8 billion for the fourth quarter. The company reported that the coming year will see share earnings reach between $10.40 and $10.60.

While J&J is mostly riding on the success of their vaccines and booster shots which have been proven to still offer around 85% immunity against the Omicron variant, the company is still diversifying their research and product development – focussing on other niche product lines.

But it’s not just companies such as J&J that are looking to improve vaccine efficacy as the ongoing pandemic strains healthcare systems across the world. Some companies are struggling to keep up with demand, and manufacturing has been slowing as the U.S. experiences supply and labor shortages.

Biotech Stocks you should be looking at

Investors are still feeling somewhat reluctant to invest in biotech and biopharma stocks in the coming year. While share returns may have decreased over the last few months, and the market remains volatile, some under-the-radar companies are proving to provide more benefits and guaranteed returns for investors.

Seagen Inc. (SGEN)

Seagen develops therapies and pharmaceuticals that help treat oncology patients. The company has undergone major scrutiny in recent months following its approval of Tvidak in September 2021. Seagen Inc provides a more diversified outlook on the market, with experts citing that stock prices will jump between $40 and $50 in the next few months.

Gritstone Bio (GRTS)

Researchers at Gritstone Bio have been working to develop an almost “second generation” mRNA vaccine, similar to that offered by Pfizer. Over time, investors, and analysts have been keeping a close eye on Gritstone, with the company not only working to develop more highly effective vaccines but also for its research and innovation in the field of oncology.

Seres Therapeutics Inc. (MCRB)

The microbiome therapeutics giant helps develop drugs that work to restore and repair dysbiotic microbiomes. In the third quarter, the company reported revenues of more than $60 million, with year-over-year returns jumping above $120 million. In 2021, Seres underwent a collaboration with Nestle Health Science to boost efforts for ongoing research in therapeutic drug development.

Ascendis Pharma (ASND)

The Danish-based company, Ascendis Pharma has gained a reputation for Skytrofa, a treatment for pediatric growth hormone deficiency. The company has an exciting year lined up, as Ascendis is in to receive increased support and licensing collaboration from leading global biotech brands. Stocks are targeted to reach around $180, with prices currently hovering close to $110.84 per stock as of 25 January

Edgewise Therapeutics Inc. (EWTX)

Investors who are willing to bet less, Edgewise is a biopharma company focussing on treating rare muscle disorders. While some Wall Street analysts have claimed that Edgewise may still be a high-risk stock in its infancy, with stock prices below $15.00 as of January 2021, some expect stock prices to reach more than $30 closer to the fourth quarter.

Takeaway

While opinions over whether biotech and biopharma stocks are double-sided, some still feel that the year ahead will have leading vaccine and pharmaceutical manufacturers stocks slip below their highs of 2021.

Market volatility has raised concern over whether running the high risk with biotech stocks is worth it or not. There’s still a chance that 2022 will see some smaller names in the pharmaceutical industry surpass current predictions.

Investors will still need to consider the risk factor that trails biotech stocks in a volatile market. As the world, and investors hold their breath for the coming year, the development of more effective vaccines and better pharmaceutical research will help not only companies see more support from their regulators, but also help investors see the potential these companies can have for the biotech industry.

Why Pfizer Stock Is Down By 6% Today

Pfizer Stock Drops After Q4 2021 Report

Shares of Pfizer gained downside momentum after the company released its fourth-quarter earnings report. The company reported revenue of $23.84 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.08 per share, missing the analyst estimates on revenue and beating them on earnings.

In 2022, Pfizer expects to report revenue of $98 billion – $102 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.35 – $6.55 per share. Revenue guidance for Comirnaty was raised to $32 billion, while the revenue guidance for Paxlovid was initiated at $22 billion.

It looks that market expected stronger guidance from Pfizer, so traders rushed out of the company’s stock. Shares of other vaccine makers have also found themselves under pressure today. Moderna and BioNTech are down by 7-8%, while Novavax stock is losing about 14% of its value during today’s trading session.

What’s Next For Pfizer Stock?

Analysts believed that Pfizer would report earnings of $6.73 per share in 2022, so the company’s guidance of $6.35 – $6.55 per share missed their estimates. Assuming that Pfizer is able to report earnings at the midpoint of its guidance, the stock is trading at less than 8 forward P/E.

While the stock may look extremely cheap, the key question is whether Pfizer will be able to report such earnings in 2023 and beyond when the world gets back to normal after the coronavirus pandemic.

Analysts are skeptical and expect that Pfizer’s earnings will be moving lower in the next several years. The same worries put pressure on shares of other vaccine makers.

Pfizer is a big and diversified company, so its shares are less volatile compared to other vaccine stocks. However, coronavirus-related revenue is very significant for Pfizer stock, so the trajectory of the pandemic will remain the main driver for the shares in the upcoming months.

Pfizer stock has already declined by roughly 20% from the highs that were reached back in December, but it is not clear whether speculative traders will rush to buy the dip. If the market views Omicron as the last major variant of coronavirus, all vaccine-related stocks, including Pfizer, will have more downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 5% Today

Improved Guidance Failed To Provide Sustainable Support To Moderna Stock

Shares of Moderna gained downside momentum today as traders took some profits off the table after yesterday’s rally.

Moderna has recently reported that it expected to record revenue of $18.5 billion from existing contracts for the delivery of COVID-19 vaccine in 2022. The company may also gain approximately $3.5 billion in revenue in case all options are exercised.

For the full year 2021, the company plans to report sales of $17.5 billion. In addition to the production and development of the coronavirus vaccine, Moderna has 40 programs in development, including 23 programs in ongoing clinical studies.

In its press release, Moderna highlighted its non-coronavirus vaccines and therapeutics, which will be vital for the company’s success when the coronavirus pandemic ends. However, it remains to be seen whether the market is ready to take a look at the post-coronavirus potential of Moderna at a time when the world faces a significant wave of Omicron.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $27.85 in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 8 forward P/E, which is certainly cheap for the current market environment.

However, the market remains skeptical about Moderna’s ability to maintain its revenue in 2023 and beyond. Other vaccine stocks like Novavax and BioNTech have also underperformed in recent weeks.

It remains to be seen whether Moderna will be able to raise revenue guidance for 2022, so that analysts can re-write their earnings forecasts. These forecasts have been improving in recent weeks, but this improvement failed to provide any support to Moderna stock.

At this point, it looks that Moderna stock needs a multiple expansion to have sustainable upside from current levels. However, it is not clear whether the market is ready to assign a higher price tag for the stock at a time when its 2023 revenues remain a mystery.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Is Up By 6% Today

Novavax Stock Rallies After Company Gets Emergency Use Authorization For COVID-19 Vaccine In India

Shares of Novavax gained strong upside momentum after the company received an emergency use authorization for its coronavirus vaccine in India.

Novavax stock has been very volatile in recent months and traded in a wide range between the lows near $120, that were reached back in October, and the highs near $235, that were reached a week ago.

It should be noted that other vaccine stocks like Moderna and BioNTech have also experienced significant volatility. It looks that traders are concerned about sustainability of current revenue and profits.

New anti-viral drugs appeared in the market, and there are hopes that Omicron, which has already became the dominant variant in the U.S. according to CDC, may be less dangerous than Delta. In this environment, market sentiment shifts quickly, which is visible in the recent dynamics of Novavax stock.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

Analysts expect that Novavax will report a loss of $12.12 per share in the current year and a profit of $25.71 per share in the next year, so the stock is trading at less than 7 forward P/E.

As I mentioned above, the key problem for Novavax and other vaccine stocks is poor earnings visibility. In addition, earnings estimates for the next year have been steadily declining, which served as an additional bearish catalyst for Novavax stock.

While Novavax is cheaper than its peers, the discount is not dramatic, so it remains to be seen whether speculative traders will choose Novavax stock over the above-mentioned Moderna or BioNTech if they decide to bet on the rebound of the segment.

In recent weeks, we have seen some rush to safety, and bigger, diversified players like AstraZeneca and Pfizer had good stock price dynamics while shares of  non-diversified vaccine makers found themselves under pressure. If this trend continues, shares of Novavax will move lower despite good news from India.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Down By 4% Today

Moderna Stock Keeps Moving Lower Despite Worries Over The Spread Of Omicron

Shares of Moderna gained additional downside momentum today after Merck‘s COVID-19 drug molnupiravir received an emergency use authorization from FDA. Earlier, Moderna stock faced pressure when Pfizer‘s Paxolovid got an emergency use authorization from FDA.

The market’s logic is simple. Anti-coronavirus pills will serve as an additional tool in the fight against the pandemic. If the danger from coronavirus decreases thanks to new drugs, demand for vaccines will fall over time, which will be bearish for Moderna.

In addition, the competition in the vaccine space is intensifying. Novavax vaccine has recently recevied an emergency use listing (EUL) from the World Health Organization. EUL will allow Novavax to participate in the COVAX, which aims to distribute vaccines to less developed countries.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Currently, analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $25.89 per share in 2021 and earnings of $26.47 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 9 forward P/E, which is cheap for the current market environment.

However, earnings visibility remains Moderna’s key problem. While it is obvious that the company will enjoy strong demand for its vaccine for 2022, the picture for 2023 is less clear. At first glance, it looks that demand should stay strong as developed countries are already rushing to introduce boosters due to the spread of Omicron while developing countries have not completed their initial vaccination programs.

However, it is not clear whether the company will be able to deliver strong profits after the pandemic ends. These worries have already put significant pressure on Moderna stock, so news about new drugs or alternative vaccines serve as bearish catalysts for Moderna shares. It remains to be seen whether speculative traders will rush to buy Moderna stock after the recent pullback or wait for more data on Omicron to adjust their estimates.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Moderna Stock Is Up By 23% Today

Moderna Stock Rallies As Traders Focus On The New COVID-19 Variant

Shares of Moderna gained strong upside momentum on worries about the new variant of coronavirus.

S&P 500 is down by almost 2% today, but vaccine stocks are rallying. BioNTech is up by 19%, Pfizer gains 6% while Novavax is up by 10%.

The emergence of the new variant will likely boost demand for vaccines as countries rush to vaccinate their residents or to provide boosters for them. While it remains to be seen whether existing vaccines work well against the new variant, the world has little options to choose from, so countries will likely be forced to bet on increased vaccine adoption.

What’s Next For Moderna Stock?

Moderna stock received strong support today as traders were trying to find a way to protect their funds against the risks posed by the new variant of the virus. In this environment, vaccine stocks served as safe-haven assets.

Analysts expect that Moderna will report earnings of $25.76 per share in 2021 and $26.21 per share in 2022, so the stock is trading at roughly 13 forward P/E. As usual, the key question is whether Moderna will be able to enjoy strong demand for its vaccine in the next few years.

Back at the beginning of November, Moderna stock made an attempt to settle below the $210 level but managed to gain upside momentum and is currently trying to settle above the $340 level.

The near-term dynamics of Moderna stock will depend on the developments on the coronavirus front. In case the new variant is a real threat, the stock will have a good chance to gain additional upside momentum.

In fact, Moderna stock may get additional support even in the scenario when the current panic turns out to be unjustified. The emergence of a new variant with many mutations has already highlighted major risks, so demand for vaccines will likely increase in any scenario.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Is Down By 10% Today

Novavax Stock Drops On Fears About Manufacturing Problems

Shares of Novavax found themselves under strong pressure after a Politico report indicated that the company suffered from manufacturing problems.

The company has already issued a press release with its comments on the report. The press release stated: “In response to a recent news article citing anonymous sources, Novavax confirms our confidence in our ability to deliver our high-quality vaccine”.

The company added: “We expect to complete multiple ongoing rolling regulatory submissions within the next couple of weeks in key markets, including the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand”.

Novavax stock touched a bottom at $121.35 during the regular trading session but found buyers and rebounded towards the $145 level.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

Novavax experienced problems and delays in the past, so it’s not surprising to see that the market was sensitive to the report about potential manufacturing problems.

At the same time, it should be noted that the company quickly issued a press release highlighting its confidence in its ability to produce a high-quality vaccine, and it looks that some traders were ready to bet that the company did not have major problems on the manufacturing front.

Analyst estimates for 2021 have improved in recent weeks. Currently, the market expects that Novavax will report a loss of $8.37 per share in the current year. In the next year, the company is expected to report a profit of $32.3 per share so the stock is trading at less than 5 forward P/E.

The cheap valuation and the major discount to peers have served as main catalysts that provided support to Novavax stock after the major drop at the beginning of today’s trading session. However, this cheap valuation is due to the uncertainty highlighted by the Politico report, and it remains to be seen whether Novavax stock will be able to gain more upside momentum without additional positive catalysts.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Is Up By 9% Today

Novavax Stock Rallies As Company Submits Its Vaccine To WHO For Emergency Use Authorization

Shares of Novavax gained strong upside momentum after the company announced the submission to WHO for emergency use of its COVID-19 vaccine. The submission was made in partnership with Serum Institute of India and based on the companies’ previous regulatory submission to the Drugs Controller General of India.

Novavax stated: “Today’s submission of our protein-based COVID-19 vaccine to WHO for emergency use listing is a significant step on the path to accelerating access and more equitable distribution to countries in great need around the world”.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

The announcement is a major development for Novavax stock which has periodically found itself under pressure in 2021 due to delays and problems with regulatory authorization in the U.S.

At this point, it is already clear that the race for the U.S. market was won by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, but most developing countries remain undersupplied.

This is a big opportunity for Novavax, so it’s not surprising to see that its shares managed to gain strong upside momentum after the company submitted its vaccine to WHO.

Analyst estimates have been mostly stable in recent weeks, and the consensus estimate implies that Novavax will report a loss of $10.21 per share this year and a profit of $32.3 in the next year. The stock is trading at less than 8 forward P/E, which represents a discount to peers due to previous problems experienced by Novavax.

However, there is potential for multiple expansion as traders will start to prepare for the potential emergency use authorization from WHO. In addition, analyst estimates may also begin to increase. At this point, it looks that Novavax stock has a decent chance to gain additional upside momentum and move higher from current levels.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Is Up By 7% Today

Novavax Stock Rallies On Positive News From Japan

Shares of Novavax gained strong upside momentum and moved to multi-month highs after Takeda Pharmaceutical stated that Japan agreed to buy 150 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine which will be produced using Novavax technology. The vaccine will be produced in Japan.

In my previous article on Novavax, I noted that the market has quickly managed to shrug off concerns about the company’s problems in the U.S. and focused on its potential in the international market.

At that point, it looked that good news may come from India as the country was reportedly considering an approval of Novavax vaccine without emergency use authorization in the U.S. However, it turned out that Japan became a big market for Novavax, and analysts will have to re-evaluate their forecasts.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

Analyst estimates for Novavax have moved lower in recent weeks. Currently, analysts expect that the company will report a loss of $10.29 per share in 2021. In 2022, Novavax is projected to report a profit of $32.3 per share so the stock is trading at just 8 forward P/E.

This is cheap, but the company has experienced various problems and delays which explains the cheap valuation in comparison with peers.

That said, it’s important to note that Novavax stock remained a part of a “vaccine trade” together with more successful companies like Moderna and BioNTech despite the company’s problems.

Recent market action indicates that traders remain ready to buy vaccine stocks. For example, Moderna stock was not harmed by the problems in Japan where the company had to recall three batches of its coronavirus vaccine after they were contaminated with stainless steel.

In this bullish market environment, Novavax stock has a good chance to gain additional upside momentum unless there is another material delay in the U.S.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Why Novavax Stock Quickly Rebounded After Sell-Off

Novavax Stock Rebounds As Traders Focus On Company’s Potential Outside U.S.

Shares of Novavax have found themselves under strong pressure last week, after the company reported its second-quarter results. The market was concerned by the company’s decision to submit for the emergency use authorization of its coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. in the fourth quarter as it was previously expected to do this in the third quarter.

On Friday, the stock made an attempt to settle below the $190 level as traders rushed out of Novavax shares on concerns about new delays. However, the stock quickly gained upside momentum and moved towards recent highs. Today, Novavax stock made an attempt to get to the test of the $250 level.

It looks that the market decided to focus on Novavax potential outside U.S. According to recent reports, Novavax vaccine can be approved in India without emergency use authorization in the U.S. India is a huge market with a population of more than 1.3 billion, and its vaccination rate is less than 10%, so it needs all vaccines that it can get.

What’s Next For Novavax Stock?

In the previous article on Novavax, I noted that the stock’s near-term performance would depend on whether it remains a part of the big “vaccine trade”.

Judging by the stock price dynamics in recent trading sessions, the market has easily shrugged off worries about delays in the U.S. and decided to focus on the company’s potential in India and other markets.

It is also possible that traders who have taken some profits off the table in high-flying vaccine stocks like Moderna and BioNTech have shifted some of the funds to Novavax to bet on the vaccine stock which has not yet rallied to all-time high levels.

In case the company gets positive news from India in the upcoming months, the stock will have a good chance to develop sustainable upside momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.