Technical Checks For Important NZD Pairs: 31.10.2018

NZD/USD

Even after bouncing off the 0.6500 round-figure, NZDUSD couldn’t clear the 0.6575-80 resistance-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & a short-term descending trend-line, which triggered the pair’s pullback towards 0.6500 re-test. In case the pair refrain to respect the 0.6500 mark, the 0.6470 and the 0.6420 are likely following rests that can be availed but its slide beneath the same could highlight the importance of 61.8% FE level of 0.6345. Alternatively, a D1 close beyond 0.6580 can escalate the pair’s recovery to 0.6610 and then to another downward slanting resistance-line, at 0.6655. Given the pair’s successful rise above 0.6655, the 100-day SMA level of 0.6675 and the 0.6700 may please the buyers.

EUR/NZD

EURNZD struggles with 100-day SMA level of 1.7375 in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.7410-15; though, pair’s advances past-1.7415 might find it hard to conquer the 1.7520 trend-line. Should prices surpass 1.7520 on a daily closing basis, the 1.7540 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.7600 can appear in the Bulls radar. Meanwhile, the 1.7260, 1.7200 and the 1.7155, including 200-day SMA, might offer immediate supports to the pair prior to dragging it to the 1.7115-05 horizontal-support. Assuming the quote’s dip below 1.7100, the 1.7020 and the 1.7000 psychological magnet could become sellers’ favorites.

NZD/JPY

With its repeated reversals from 72.30-20 support-zone, NZDJPY is likely to confront 100-day SMA level of 74.50 but its further upside can be restricted by nine-month old descending TL, at 74.80. If at all the pair manage to cross 74.80, the 75.50 and 200-day SMA level of 76.00 may be observed if holding long positions. On the contrary, 73.55 can serve as adjacent support, breaking which 73.10 & 72.70 might act as intermediate halts before dragging the pair to 72.30-20 again. However, pair’s plunge below 72.20 opens the gate for 61.8% FE level of 71.00.

NZD/CAD

Having smashed 50-day SMA, the NZDCAD is expected to run towards eight-week long resistance-line, around 0.8650, which if broken could propel the quote to 0.8690 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.8730. In case the prices keep rallying above 0.8730, the 0.8780 and the 0.8825-30 area can challenge the optimists. Let’s say the pair closes beneath 50-day SMA level of 0.8555, then the 0.8520 support-line figure becomes an important number to watch as break of which can flash 0.8450 & 0.8390 on the chart. Moreover, pair’s extended south-run after 0.8390 may have 0.8320 and the 0.8245, comprising 61.8% FE, as supports.

Technical Outlook For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD & NZD/CAD: 05.09.2018

USD/CAD

Having breached 50-day SMA & near-term important TL, the USDCAD seems all set to challenge the 1.3265-70 horizontal-region but overbought RSI might question the pair’s further upside. Though, pair’s sustained rise beyond 1.3270 can help it aim for the 1.3330 and the 1.3385 resistances. Meanwhile, the 1.3160 could offer immediate support during the pair’s pullback before highlighting the resistance-turned-support confluence of 1.3100-3090. Given the sellers fetch prices beneath 1.3090 on a daily closing basis, the 1.3000, the 1.2910 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.2850 may gain market attention.

EUR/CAD

Even after taking a U-turn from resistance-line of short-term “Rising Wedge”, the EURCAD can’t be considered weak unless declining beneath the 1.5165 support-line. As a result, chances of the pair’s pullback to 1.5290 and consequent advances to 1.5320-25 horizontal-line can’t be denied. Should the pair crosses 1.5325 barrier, the 1.5370, the 1.5415 and the 1.5440 can entertain buyers prior to pleasing them with 1.5465 mark. On the downside, the 1.5185 and the 1.5165 may limit the pair’s nearby downside, break of which can confirm the bearish technical pattern with theoretical targets of 1.5050 and the 1.5010-5000. Moreover, pair’s weakness below 1.5000 might not hesitate testing the 1.4885, the 1.4830 and the 1.4800 rest-points.

GBP/CAD

GBPCAD’s bounce off the 1.6595-85 support-zone has to surpass the 50-day SMA level of 1.7035 in order to be capable of visiting the 1.7155 mark but its further upside might find it hard to conquer the 100-day SMA & five-month old descending TL, around 1.7240-50. Assuming that the quote closes beyond 1.7250 on a D1 basis, the 1.7465-70 may flash in the Bulls’ radar. In case prices fail to hold recent recovery, the 1.6800 can act as adjacent support for the pair, breaking which the 1.6750 and the 1.6585-75 could play their roles. It should also be noted that the pair’s drop below 1.6575 can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 1.6355-50 support-area.

NZD/CAD

With the five-week old descending trend-line restricting the NZDCAD’s immediate rise around 0.8660, the pair is likely to revisit the 0.8615 and the 0.8600-0.8595 support-region. Though, refrain to respect the 0.8595 can drag the quote to 0.8560 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 0.8495. Alternatively, a clear break of 0.8660 could escalate the pair’s recovery towards 0.8685 and the 0.8740 levels ahead of highlighting the 0.8775 and the 0.8825-30. If the pair continue trading north-wards after 0.8830 then the 0.8875 and the 0.8920 might become traders’ favorites.

USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Fading NAFTA Optimism Pressures Canadian Loonie.

The USD/CAD pair failed to capitalize on the weekly bullish gap and was now seen consolidating in a range, just above mid-1.3000s. The pair broke to the upside last Friday and reached a fresh weekly high at 1.3087. Price was holding near the highs, with a bullish tone, consolidating important daily gains. From the weekly low the pair raised almost 200 pips.

The move to the upside followed comments from Canadian negotiator Freeland who said “we’re not there yet” regarding the trade deal with the US and Mexico. PM Trudeau added that a “no deal” on NAFTA was better than a bad one. Also, the pair moved higher on the back of a stronger US dollar which gained momentum amid risk aversion market sentiment. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to exclude Canada from a new NAFTA agreement after the recent US-Canada trade negotiations ended without any agreement. Trump also warned the Congress not to interfere with these negotiations or he would simply terminate the trilateral NAFTA pact altogether.

Exit From NAFTA Looks Highly Likely For Canada

While Canadian Prime minister is ready for NAFTA exit instead of agreeing to a bad deal, Loonie struggles to come to terms on NAFTA proceedings which kept weighing on the Canadian Dollar at the start of a new trading week. The pair touched an intraday high level of 1.3077, albeit struggled to gain any follow-through traction despite a combination of supporting factors. A modest US Dollar uptick, coupled with a mildly negative tone around crude oil prices, which tend to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, did little to inspire the bulls and eventually led to a subdued/range-bounce price action through the early European session earlier today.

Moreover, traders also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets amid holiday-thinned liquidity conditions on the back of a bank holiday, both in the US and Canada. Moving ahead, this week’s important macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the keenly watched US non-farm payrolls data, and the latest BoC monetary policy update on Wednesday will play a key role in determining the pair’s next leg of directional move.

Despite last week’s strong up-move, the pair remains within a short-term descending trend-channel held over the past two months or so. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive move beyond the channel resistance, currently near the 1.3100 handles, before placing any major bets in Greenback’s favor. On the flip side, a slide back below the key 1.30 psychological mark would reinforce the trend-channel and turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards challenging the 1.2900 handle support.

 

Technical Overview of Important NZD Pairs: 22.08.2018

NZD/USD

Having taken a U-turn from 0.6720-25 resistance-confluence, NZDUSD highlights the importance of a week-long ascending trend-line, at 0.6655, which if broken can further fetch the quote to the 0.6640 and the 0.6610 supports. Given the pair’s additional downturn beneath 0.6610, the 0.6570 and the 0.6545 can entertain sellers. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.6725 can quickly propel the pair to 0.6765 and then to the 0.6800 resistance-mark. Also, pair’s successful advances past-0.6800 can confront the 0.6830 and the 0.6860 north-side barriers.

NZD/JPY

Alike NZDUSD, the NZDJPY also reversed from immediate resistance, namely the 74.05-10 horizontal-region, which in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s drop to the 73.55 and to the 73.20 TL figure. Should prices continue trading southwards after 73.20, the 72.80 and the 72.30 may please the Bears. In case the pair surpasses 74.10 resistance, its rise to 74.50 and 74.75 could well be expected. However, a month-long downward slanting trend-line, around 75.45-50, might challenge the buyers beyond 74.75.

AUD/NZD

AUDNZD is likely clubbed in a symmetrical triangle between the 1.0940 support and the 1.1030 resistance but oversold RSI levels indicate the pair’s strength to come. Hence, the 1.1070 and the 1.1125 to gain investor attention once 1.1030 is broken. If Bulls refrain to respect 1.1125 hurdle, the 1.1175 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.1230 may receive optimists’ eye-share. Meanwhile, break of 1.0940 can flash 1.0900 and the 1.0845-40 as quotes whereas 1.0775 and the 1.0710 could become important to observe afterwards.

NZD/CAD

Even after failing to clear the two-month old descending trend-line, the NZDCAD’s near-term declines can be restricted by the 0.8685 TL support. Given the pair drops below 0.8685, the 0.8630 and the 0.8600 may offer intermediate halts during its plunge to 0.8560 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.8500. On the upside, the 0.8745 seems crucial for short-term buyers as break of the same could escalate the pair moves to the 0.8785 and then to the 0.8825-35 resistance-zone. Assuming that the pair keeps rising above 0.8835, the 0.8870, the 0.8915 and the 0.8975 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart.

USDCAD defends the long-term up trendline

Last week was great for the USD. Dollar Index made new long-term highs and the EURUSD broke important supports. On almost all instruments with the USD, we can find interesting setups. Today, we present you the USDCAD, where the buy signal is still relatively fresh.

It seems like this pair is coming back to the uptrend, after being in a deeper correction since the end of June. Our positive view on the USDCAD is based on the few factors. First one is the long-term up trendline, which supports higher lows and highs since the beginning of February (green). At the beginning of August, the price bounced again, which confirms the uptrend in 2018. The second factor is the flag (blue lines). This is a trend continuation pattern, so we should see the breakout of the upper line soon. Last but not least is the breakout of the horizontal resistance on the 1.31 (red). The price being above that line is a confirmation of the positive sentiment.

USD/CAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD Daily Chart

With this setup, in the next few weeks, we should see the further upswing. All we need for a legitimate trigger is the daily candlestick closing above the blue line, which can happen as soon as today.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 09.08.2018

USD/CAD

Although 50-day & 100-day SMA has been restricting the USDCAD moves since last fortnight, the 1.2960-55 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & an ascending TL, could keep indicating the pair’s upside with 1.3060 being immediate resistances to tackle before confronting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115. Given the pair’s ability to close beyond the 1.3115, the 1.3190 and the downward slanting trend-line, at 1.3215, seem crucial to watch as they hold the door for the quote’s rally towards the 1.3265, the 1.3340 and the 1.3385 resistances. In case the pair dips beneath the 1.2960 on a daily closing basis, the 1.2900, the 1.2865 and the 1.2800 can mark their presence on the chart ahead of highlighting the 1.2730 and the 1.2625 rest-points.

EUR/CAD

Although 50-day & 100-day SMA has been restricting the USDCAD moves since last fortnight, the 1.2960-55 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & an ascending TL, could keep indicating the pair’s upside with 1.3060 being immediate resistances to tackle before confronting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115. Given the pair’s ability to close beyond the 1.3115, the 1.3190 and the downward slanting trend-line, at 1.3215, seem crucial to watch as they hold the door for the quote’s rally towards the 1.3265, the 1.3340 and the 1.3385 resistances. In case the pair dips beneath the 1.2960 on a daily closing basis, the 1.2900, the 1.2865 and the 1.2800 can mark their presence on the chart ahead of highlighting the 1.2730 and the 1.2625 rest-points.

NZD/CAD

Even after testing the lowest levels of 2018, mainly due to RBNZ’s dovish statement, the NZDCAD still has to close beneath the five-year old upward slanting trend-line, at 0.8640, on a weekly closing basis in order to stretch its downturn to 0.8580 and the 0.8510 supports. Should prices continue declining beneath the 0.8510, the 0.8430 and the 0.8350 can flash in the Bears’ radar. Alternatively, the 0.8730, the 0.8820 and the 0.8850 can act as adjacent resistances for the pair, breaking which the 0.8980 and the 0.9000 might play their role of upside hurdle. If the pair manage to surpass the 0.9000 mark, the 0.9100-0.9110 resistance-area, including the 200-week SMA level & descending TL, can be targeted if holding long positions.

CAD/CHF

Unless breaking the seven-week long ascending trend-line, at 0.7600 now, chances of the CADCHF’s pullback to 0.7650 and then to the 0.7665 can’t be denied; though, recent high of 0.7675, ascending TL figure of 0.7685 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.7700 could check the pair’s strength afterwards. Assuming the pair’s rise above 0.7700, the 0.7735 and the 0.7765 can become buyers favorite. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.7600 can drag the quote to the 0.7585 and the 0.7560 supports prior to increasing the importance of 0.7500 round-figure. Also, pair’s plunge past-0.7500 can avail the 0.7460, the 0.7425 and the 0.7390 rest-points during further weakness.

Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD & NZD/CAD: 02.08.2018

NZD/USD

As the month long symmetrical triangle restricts the NZDUSD moves, chances favoring the present downturn to be challenged by the formation support, at 0.6730, are quite high; though, failure to turn down the sellers can further fetch the quote towards the 0.6715 and the 0.6690 supports. In case Bears keep ruling trade sentiment past-0.6690, the 61.8% FE level of 0.6625 and the 0.6600 round-figure could mark their appearance on the chart. On the contrary, the 0.6790 and the 0.6810 might try to confine the pair’s immediate upside before the pattern-resistance, at 0.6850, comes into play. If at all the pair surpasses 0.6850 mark, the 0.6885, the 0.6915-20 and the 0.6955-60 may pop-up in the buyers’ radars to target.

EUR/NZD

Alike NZDUSD, the EURNZD seems also finding it hard to break the short-term symmetrical triangle, which in-turn can confine the pair’s recent recovery around 1.7260. Should prices refrain to respect the 1.7260 barrier, the 1.7315-20 and the 1.7380 are likely following resistances to observe as break of which may propel the pair to 61.8% FE level of 1.7465. Meanwhile, the 1.7125 can offer adjacent support to the pair during its pullback ahead of highlighting the pattern support of figure of 1.7095. Assuming that the pair continue declining after 1.7095 then the 1.7000, the 1.6960 and the 1.6920 may act as buffer prior to diverting market attention on the 1.6820-10 horizontal support-zone.

GBP/NZD

GBPNZD’s uptick on BoE decision still has to cross the 1.9425-30 horizontal-area in order to aim for the 1.9500 but four-week old descending trend-line, at 1.9530, could limit the pair’s additional rise. Given the quote’s ability to conquer the 1.9530 hurdle, it can extend the north-run to 1.9580 and the 1.9620 resistance-levels. If prices fail to sustain latest strength then the 1.9360, the 1.9300 and the 1.9255 can provide intermediate halts to their drop targeting 1.9220 support-line. Moreover, pair’s dip beneath the 1.9220 can make the 1.9140, the 1.9030 and the 1.9000 as sellers’ favorites.

NZD/CAD

Contrast to all the aforementioned currency-pairs, the NZDCAD has already broken an important support-line, now being resistance near 0.8850, and is likely to revisit the 0.8785 and the 0.8740 rest-points. However, the 0.8685-80 could question the pair’s weakness post-0.8740, if not then 0.8640 might be checked as strong support. Alternatively, a D1 close beyond 0.8850 can trigger the pair’s short-covering rally in direction the 0.8870 and the 0.8915 whereas 0.8970 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.9000 may disappoint the Bulls afterwards. If the pair stretch its up-moves above 0.9000, the 200-day SMA level of 0.9040 and the downward slanting TL figure of 0.9110 seem crucial to watch.

NZD/CAD with a clean technical setup

This week starts with the weaker USD and stronger EUR but we can see a great situation on the pair other than from the majors’ group – NZDCAD. Since the beginning of July, this pair was locked inside of the symmetric triangle pattern (blue). The volatility was decreasing and we were waiting for a breakout.

Breakout happened at the end of the week and it was to the downside. NZDCAD decided to use this pattern for a trend continuation as that what the trend was before the triangle was formed. After the breakout, the price went lower but met a very important support – long-term up trendline (black), where the take profit action took place. Currently, the price is testing the previous support as the closest resistance. Any bearish price action on the orange area will be a strong sell signal strengthened by the bounce from the 50% Fibonacci.

NZDCAD 4H Chart
NZDCAD 4H Chart

At the beginning of the European session, NZDCAD draws a shooting star on the H4 chart but as for now, this one is not respected. Sellers need to wait for something more encouraging. Possible sell signal will be denied, once the price will come back above the orange area but as for now, it is less likely to happen.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Will the USD/CAD Bulls Hold Their Nerve?

Any signs of recovery were hammered on July 20 when the pairing fell 140 pips on news that Canada’s May retail sales had shot up 2%, rather than the forecast 1.1%. Recent comments by US President Donald Trump about his disdain for domestic interest rate hikes have also put pressure on the US Dollar.

But are we seeing an end to the USD/CAD upward momentum, or is this simply a slight pullback before the chart begins moving north again? The answer will likely be determined more by what Mr. Trump and the US is doing, rather than anything happening in Canada. That’s not a dig at Canada, more a reflection of the importance of the US dollar to all world markets.

The Canadian dollar, steady as she goes

The Canadians are widely seen as being dependable folk, and their currency is also regarded as one of the world’s most stable, traded by long-term investors and intraday traders in large numbers. Interest has increased locally because residents now benefit from using brokers with $1 million protection offered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), which pays out if a broker goes belly up.

Because the Canadian dollar is the fifth most commonly held currency, it usually does not show the sort of hair-raising price volatility that befalls smaller currencies. But that’s not to say traders can’t take advantage. Intraday corrections come thick and fast on the back of regular scheduled economic news announcements, just like the Retail Sales one on Friday, July 20. This is a monthly statistic, along with Labour Force Survey (Canada’s employment figures), Consumer Price Index and Industrial Price Index. Traders also eagerly await the quarterly Gross Domestic Product figures.

But it’s commodity prices that have a huge impact on the Canadian dollar. The country relies heavily on its natural resources of oil, lumber and natural gas, and exports much of this abroad. This means that not only is foreign demand a pressure factor, but also the price of crude oil itself. When the price of crude slumped from US$105 to US$45 in 2014/15, Canada’s economy took a hit, sending it into a downturn for the first time in years. It’s often said that commodity prices, especially oil, have a greater influence on the Canadian dollar than economic news, and it’s no great surprise given the country’s reliance on its natural resources. Oil prices rise since the beginning of 2018 which helped the Canadain dollar to remain strong versus the greenback and other currencies. As long as oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar might be a correct position.

For the long-term investor, most of these volatility factors (economic news and the price of crude oil, for example) can be exploited by riding on the back of a long-term trend. But as we’ve seen, in a currency pairing like USD/CAD it takes two to tango. And when you’re dance partner is the US, it tends to take the lead.

USD volatility, the Trump effect

The US dollar is subject to volatility like any other currency, with changes to supply and demand, commodity prices and regular economic data all pushing or pulling the price up or down. As the most traded currency in the world, second-guessing which way the USD will go has become an art form. But now there is a new factor influencing the currency’s fortunes, and it’s one that is becoming rather hard to predict.

Step forward Donald Trump, the US President whose habit of speaking his mind often has ripple effects in the markets. While his imposition of trade tariffs with the European Union, Canada and China buoyed sentiment, the currency dropped when he openly questioned the Fed’s policy of interest rate hikes, suggesting it was keeping the dollar too high. Mr. Trump wants a lower dollar, making it cheaper for the US to do business abroad. And if there’s one thing we’ve come to learn about Mr. Trump, it’s that he likes to get what he wants.

USD/CAD long or short?

With all this variance and the unpredictability of looming trade wars, Brexit and maybe a currency war, too, how can you call what the future movement of the USD/CAD pairing will be? You can certainly look at our own financial market forecasts and analysis, but your willingness to jump in might be influenced by your desire to try to cash in on short-term movements or to hang in there for the long term.

As we’ve seen, the long-term trend for USD/CAD is bullish. The USD has been consistently strong, while the Canadian dollar less so. If you believe Mr. Trump won’t have any influence on the Federal Reserve’s decision making on interest rates, which he really shouldn’t as its meant to be impartial to political interference, then interest rates will continue on an upward curve, which in turn will keep the US dollar high. However, even Mr. Trump talking about interest rates has brought a dollar price correction, and any hint that the Fed might actually shift policy might make the dollar price fall further.

What is clear is that the Canadian economy is going through a purple patch. While retail sales are up, so too is inflation, with the figure at a six-year high of 2.5% in June, fuelled by increasing gas costs. What that means is the possibility of another increase in interest rates, which would drive up the Canadian dollar, and potentially drive down the USD/CAD, but only if the US dollar continues to weaken.

So, with all things considered, and without a crystal ball to give you the answer, the best bet might well be to follow the long-term trend and go long on USD/CAD. But intraday traders can lick their lips at short-term volatility, so long as they’re on the right side of any correction. Following Mr. Trump on Twitter now seems as important as watching out for key financial news, and it’s probably a lot more entertaining.

Technical Update For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, NZD/CAD & CAD/CHF: 26.07.2018

USD/CAD

USDCAD’s dip beneath the 50-day SMA & four-month old horizontal-region can’t be termed as strong Bearish signal as 100-day SMA level of 1.2955, an upward slanting TL stretched since early-February, at 1.2890, and the 1.2805 figure comprising 200-day SMA, still stand tall to challenge sellers. In case if the pair closes below 1.2805 on D1 basis, it can then aim for 1.2740 and the 1.2700 support-levels. On the upside, the 1.3045-50 horizontal-line and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3090 could try limiting the pair’s near-term advances, breaking which the 1.3110, the 1.3160 and the 1.3210 might offer intermediate halts before highlighting the 1.3270 trend-line barrier. Should the 1.3270 fails to disappoint buyers, the 1.3320-30 and the 1.3385 may appear in their radar to target.

EUR/CAD

Given the EURCAD’s daily closing below 50-day SMA, the 1.5200 is likely to appear on the chart but the 1.5140-50 region can confine the pair’s additional declines. Though, pair’s sustained downturn past-1.5140 can avail the 1.5060 and the 1.5000 mark as buffers prior to diverting market attention to recent low of 1.4915. If at all the quote closes above 50-day SMA level of 1.5290, it can revisit the 1.5320 and the 1.5360 resistances ahead of pushing bulls to aim for the 1.5440, the 1.5470 and the 1.5515 trend-line. Moreover, pair’s successful trading beyond 1.5515 may not hesitate questioning the strength of the 1.5580, the 1.5640 and the 1.5710 resistances.

NZD/CAD

Having reversed from resistance-line of short-term descending triangle formation, the NZDCAD seems all set to re-test the 0.8875-70 horizontal-support, which if fail to restrict the pair’s south-run can drag it to 0.8860 and the 0.8830 rest-points. Also, pair’s refrain to respect the 0.8830 mark can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 61.8% FE level of 0.8770. Alternatively, the 0.8915 and the 0.8950 can please counter-trend traders during the pair’s U-turn but the aforementioned TL, at 0.8960, may tame its further advances. However, break of  0.8960 could theoretically confirm the pair’s rise to the 0.9100 number with the 0.9000 and the 0.9065 being intermediate stops.

CAD/CHF

Unless clearing the 200-day SMA level of 0.7615 on a daily closing basis, the CADCHF can’t be termed strong enough to aim for the 0.7665 resistance, breaking which 0.7700-0.7705 becomes crucial to watch. In case the pair conquers the 0.7705 hurdle,  the 0.7740, the 0.7765 and the 0.7805 might lure the buyers. Meanwhile, inability to surpass the 0.7615 may reprint 0.7585 on the chart while immediate ascending TL figure of 0.7535 can restrict the pair’s following downside. Assuming that the prices drop below 0.7535, then the 0.7510, the 0.7445 trend-line number and the 0.7400 may please the Bears.

Three Great Trading Setups: One Rectangle and Two Triangles

Overnight, we received data important for the AUD. CPI came slightly worse than expectations, which caused a weakness of the Australian Dollar. On the EURAUD it did not come in a random place. The price again bounced from the support on the 1.571. We are still locked inside of the sideways trend, waiting for a breakout.

NZDCAD is also in a sideways trend, in a symmetric triangle pattern to be precise. It is a very interesting occasion because this pair loves directional movements so most probably, a breakout will be a great trading opportunity

USDJPY is still above the combination of crucial supports: long-term down trendline and mid-term up trendline. We also do have a short-term horizontal support here. As long as we stay above the lower pink area, the sentiment is positive. In the same time, we do have a triangle here so the breakout of its upper line will be a long-term buy signal.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Checks For Important CAD Pairs: 18.07.2018

USD/CAD

Even after clearing the 1.3215-20 resistance-region, USDCAD needs to conquer the 1.3260-65 horizontal-area in order to extend its recovery towards the 1.3300 and the 1.3340 resistances. Though, pair’s ability to surpass the 1.3340 can escalate its north-run in direction to the June high of 1.3385 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 1.3460. In case the quote fails to cross the 1.3265 immediate barrier, it can revisit the 1.3220-15 zone, breaking which 1.3160 and an upward slanting TL, at 1.3125, may confine the pair’s following declines. It should also be noted that the pair’s additional downturn beneath the 1.3125 can drag it to the 1.3060, the 1.3030 and to the 1.3000 psychological magnet.

GBP/CAD

While USDCAD has another resistance to break after clearing an intermediate hurdle, the GBPCAD’s recent break of ascending trend-line can’t be termed as a sign of its plunge unless closing below the 1.7160 TL-mark on a daily basis. If the pair closes below 1.7160, the 1.7050 and the 1.7000 are likely supports that it could avail before testing the 1.6860 and the 1.6750 rest-points. On the upside, a D1 close beyond 1.7320 can trigger the pair’s recovery to the 1.7400, the 1.7460 and the 1.7550 resistances. However, pair’s break of 1.7550 may find it hard to confront the four-month old descending TL, at 1.7600, adjacent to the 100-day SMA level of 1.7635.

NZD/CAD

NZDCAD seems preparing itself to reach the 50-day SMA level of 0.8995 for one more time with 0.8965 acting as a halt during its rise. Should the pair rallies above 0.8995, the 0.9030 and the 0.9100 can please the buyers prior to challenging them with 100-day SMA level of 0.9130. Alternatively, the 0.8925 and the 0.8875 may entertain short-term sellers but the 0.8840 level, comprising seven-month long ascending TL, could limit the pair’s further weakness. Given the Bears’ refrain to respect the 0.8840 support, the 0.8800 and the 0.8780 might appear in their radar to target.

CAD/CHF

Following its break of four-week old ascending trend-line, the CADCHF is expected to re-test the 0.7530 horizontal-line, which if can’t stop the pair’s drop can register the 0.7500 and the 0.7470 numbers on the chart. Moreover, pair’s extended downside below 0.7470 could have 0.7425 as a buffer  ahead of highlighting the 0.7390 for traders. Meanwhile, 0.7580 and the 0.7600 can provide near-term cap to the prices before the 0.7620 resistance-line. In case the pair crosses 0.7620 line, the 0.7665 and the 0.7700 might become Bulls’ favorites.

New Zealand Dollar Slightly Higher as Inflation Expected to Remain Steady

The U.S. dollar was seen posting gains on Friday as price action remained strong toward the close of the week. The economic data was quiet for the most part. Switzerland’s PPI figures released earlier in the day showed a 0.2% increase on the month as expected.

The U.S. import prices fell 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.1% increase instead. Previous month’s data was revised higher to 0.9%.

Earlier in the day, China’s GDP report showed that the economy advanced 6.7% matching estimates. Industrial production was, however, weaker, rising just 6.0% and falling short of the 6.5% forecast.

The economic data for the day includes the U.S. retail sales figures. Economists forecast that headline retail sales increased 0.4% on the month. This marks a slower pace of increased compared to the 0.8% gain seen the month before. Core retail sales are also forecast to rise 0.4%.

New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

EURUSD (1.1683): The EURUSD was seen falling to a fresh 10-day low on Friday as price action touched 1.1608 on the day. However, the intraday declines recovered as the currency pair managed to close slightly bullish. Price action was seen closing near 1.1695 on Friday’s close which marks the previously breached support level. A rebound off this level is required in order to confirm the upside in prices. If the EURUSD posts a reversal near this price level we expect to see further declines that could send the common currency falling toward 1.1600 regions.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

USDJPY (112.48): The USDJPY currency pair rallied to a six month high on Friday before giving up the gains. Price action quickly reversed back to 112.28 level. As long as this minor support holds, the currency pair could be seen consolidating at the currency levels. In the event of a break down below this level, then USDJPY could extend the losses toward the next lower support at 111.13. However, the major falling trend line is expected to act as dynamic support in the short term.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

XAUUSD (1243.21): Gold prices were seen posting declines on the day as price touched fresh intraday lows of 1240.81. The recovery in the declines saw gold prices trading back near the price level of 1242. A breakout above this level is required to confirm the upside momentum that could be building up. Failure to close above 1247 could, however, trigger further gains that could push the price of spot gold toward the 1258 handle. To the downside, we expect to see price action consolidating at the current levels.

This article was written by Orbex

Things to Consider When Trading the Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is an important currency part of the Forex dashboard. As part of the DXY (Dollar Index), where it holds almost a ten percent stake, the CAD reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the Canadian economy.

Speaking of Canada, the country stands for a symbol of capitalism and freedom. Part of NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement), Canada has a performant economic model many countries only dream about.

The CAD pairs in Forex trading are favorite among retail traders. The leading one, apparently, is the USDCAD pair, as it considers the CAD against the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. Dollar.

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The funny thing is that the two countries share a common border, so the two economies are interconnected in more ways that many traders believe.

In trading, when buying or selling a currency pair, traders analyze the two economies corresponding to the currencies that make up the pair. In this case, the United States and the Canadian economy.

Because the United States economy is the largest in the world, and the USD is the world’s reserve currency, the economic data out of the United States dominates the economic calendar.

As for the CAD and CAD pairs, here’s the most important economic data to consider:

  • Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and press conferences
    • Bank of Canada (BOC) meets every six weeks, on a Wednesday, to set the rate on the Canadian Dollar. Traders oversee the decision as the press conference that follows offers more details that influence the value of the Canadian Dollar
    • the higher the interest rate, the better for the currency
  • Unemployment Rate and the Employment Change numbers
    • The jobs data is typically released at the same time with the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) in the United States – first Friday of every month. However, sometimes a one week delay may exist between the two.
    • Positive data is good for the CAD
    • When released at the same time with the NFP, the USDCAD pair is difficult to trade due to bi-directional flows
  • CPI or Inflation
    • The Consumer Price Index or inflation is part of the BOC mandate
    • Higher inflation leads to higher interest rate, so it’s bullish for the currency
    • Lower inflation triggers lower CAD
  • Ivey PMI
    • In Canada, there’s only one PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) release, unlike in other countries
    • Values higher than 50 are positive for the CAD
    • Lower values than 50 signal contraction for the Candian economy
  • Oil prices and U.S. oil inventories
    • Canada is an energy-driven economy as it is a big oil producer. Hence, the price of oil has a big impact on the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
    • Lower oil prices trigger lower CAD
    • Higher oil prices lead to strong CAD
    • S. oil inventories cause fluctuations in the CAD pairs because most of the Canadian oil exports go to the United States
    • Lower U.S. inventories trigger a bullish CAD reaction
    • Higher U.S. inventories trigger a bearish CAD reaction
Canada is an energy-driven economy as it is a big oil producer

Conclusion

As a leading currency in Forex trading, the Canadian Dollar is part of essential currency pairs. It fluctuates freely, hence it is a source of potential successful speculation. Understanding what drives its moves is critical for Forex traders.

Canadian Dollar Steady as BoC Expected to Hike Interest Rates

The UK’s first monthly GDP release by the ONS showed that the economy had advanced 0.3% on the month in June. However, the positive GDP growth report was offset by manufacturing production which rose 0.4% missing estimates of a 1.0% increase. Construction output, however, beat estimates, rising strongly by 2.9% on the month. Industrial production, on the other hand, weakened, falling 0.4%.

Data from Germany showed that the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -24.7 while the Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to -18.7.

The economic calendar today will see investors shifting focus to the BoC’s monetary policy meeting. Chances of a rate hike remain high as the economists polled expect to see the BoC raising rates by 25 basis points at today’s meeting.

The BoC meeting will be concluded by the press conference. Later in the day, the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney is also expected to speak. From the Federal Reserve, the FOMC member, Williams is due to speak as well.

On the economic front, the U.S. producer prices index data is expected to show a modest slowdown to 0.2% increase in both core and headline PPI for June.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

EURUSD (1.1729): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting modest declines on the day as price action remains consolidating around the 1.1730 level. The daily chart signals a hidden bearish divergence to the Stochastics which suggests a near-term decline. The initial support at 1.1686 remains the first level of support that could be tested. In the event of a break down below this level, then the EURUSD could be seen testing 1.1600 level to the downside.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

USDJPY (111.07): The USDJPY currency pair was seen giving up the gains as the currency pair slipped below the 111.13 level. However, price action has seen currently making up for the declines. However, a retest of 111.13 is likely to occur. Failure to break out above 111.13 could signal a move to the downside. The USDJPY currency pair could be seen settling into a range between 111.13 and 110.62 level. A breakout from this level could trigger a short-term trend in the direction of the breakout.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

XAUUSD (1250.82): Gold prices continued to decline following the brief retest of the 1263 resistance. The decline back to the 1247 handle invalidated the bullish flag pattern as price action returns to the familiar support level. As long as 1247 support holds, gold prices could be seen holding on. However, in the event of a break down below, the next support level is seen in 1242. A reversal of this level is required for gold prices to maintain the range within the levels.

This article was written by Orbex

Technical Checks For Important NZD Pairs: 11.04.2018

NZD/USD

NZDUSD’s U-turn from 0.7345 horizontal-line again fuels the pair towards confronting the 0.7375 resistance-mark, break of which could escalate its up-moves in direction to the 0.7400 round-figure. However, pair’s rise beyond 0.7400 may only have 0.7410 as a barrier to clear before challenging the mid-February highs near 0.7435. Should overbought RSI continue restricting the pair’s strength and drag it beneath the 0.7345, the 0.7320, the 0.7300 and an upward slanting TL figure of 0.7280 are likely consecutive supports to appear on the chart. Moreover, pair’s dip below 0.7280 could avail the 0.7245 and the 0.7190 rest-points.

GBP/NZD

Having failed to sustain Friday’s pullback from 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence, GBPNZD re-tests the same support-zone around 1.9210–1.9190, which in-turn favors the pair’s another reversal targeting 1.9315 and the 1.9420 resistances. Given the Bulls’ ability to conquer 1.9420, the 1.9550 may act as intermediate halt during their journey to the 1.9600 trend-line. Meanwhile, a downside close below 1.9190 reignites the importance of ascending TL, at 1.9070 now, breaking which the pair could jump to 1.9000 psychological-magnet. If at all the pair keeps trading southwards after 1.9000, the 1.8900 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.8725 may appear in Bears’ radars.

NZD/JPY

Irrespective of the NZDJPY’s present struggle to maintain its strength, the pair can’t be termed weak unless it offers a daily closing below 78.35-25 horizontal-region. As a result, chances of the pair’s advances to 200-day SMA level of 79.40 become brighter if it surpasses the 79.15 nearby resistance but its following rise may have to clear the 80.00 and the 80.10 trend-line in order to please the NZD optimists. Alternatively, a daily closing beneath the 78.25 might not hesitate fetching the quote to 78.00 and the 77.60. Further, pair’s additional downside below 77.60 can have 77.00 and the 76.10 as strong supports to break prior to revisiting the 75.50 mark.

NZD/CAD

By taking support from three-month old ascending trend-line, the NZDCAD is trying to regain its status above 50-day SMA level of 0.9290 but a downward slanting TL stretched since mid-March, at 0.9320, could limit its upside then after. If the pair closes above 0.9320, the 0.9370 and the 0.9435 can be considered as buffers during the course of its rally towards 0.9460 & 0.9520. On the downside, a clear break of 0.9250 TL can trigger the pair’s profit-booking moves targeting 0.9190 & 0.9120 whereas 100-day SMA level of 0.9110 may challenge the sellers afterwards. Given the pair’s break of 0.9110, it becomes vulnerable to revisit the 0.9000 level.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important NZD Pairs’ Technical Overview: 21.03.2018

NZD/USD

With its sustained trading beneath 200-day SMA, the NZDUSD is likely to extend recent drop towards 0.7140 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 0.7120 unless it trades below the 0.7185 SMA figure. If prices continue declining after 0.7120, the 0.7070, the 0.7055 and the 0.7030-35 may become sellers’ follow-on targets. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond 0.7185 could help the pair to revisit the 0.7215 and the 0.7250 resistances ahead of confronting the 50-day SMA level of 0.7290. During the pair’s additional upside past 0.7290, a downward slanting TL figure of 0.7335 and the 0.7375 could become important to watch.

EUR/NZD

Alike NZDUSD, the EURNZD is also near to important resistance, i.e. the 1.7130-40 horizontal-line, which may confine the pair’s up-moves and signal chances of it pullback to 0.7040 and then to the 1.6970 immediate supports. Should the pair witness increased selling pressure after 1.6970, the 50-day SMA level of 1.6890 and an ascending TL support mark of 1.6845 may grab market attention. Given the pair’s ability to provide a D1 close above 1.7140, the 1.7220, the 1.7250 and the 1.7330 are likely consecutive resistances to appear on the chart. Assuming Bulls dominance over the quote beyond 1.7330, the 1.7400 and the 1.7480 could come-back as levels prior to highlighting 61.8% FE level of 1.7720.

AUD/NZD

Even if the AUDNZD took a U-turn from 1.0630, it can’t be termed strong even for short-term unless it clears the nearby TL resistance-mark of 1.0770 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.0810. Let’s say the pair manages to conquer the 1.0810 on a daily closing basis, the 1.0860 and the 1.0920 might please the optimists. Alternatively, the 1.0690, the 1.0655 and the 1.0630 could serve as adjacent rests during the pair’s pullback, which if broken could push the Bears to target 1.0605–1.0595 horizontal-area. In case of the pair’s extended south-run beneath 1.0595, the 1.0530 and the 1.0490 can be aimed while being short.

NZD/CAD

Ever since the NZDCAD broke 0.9435-40 horizontal-region, it kept declining and is presently struggling around the lowest point in nearly two-weeks. While oversold RSI indicates the pair’s pullback, expected dovish outcome of the RBNZ and comparative strength of the CAD favors the downward trajectory. Currently, the 0.9330 and the 0.9300 can offer immediate support to the pair before the 0.9290-85 zone comes into play. If the pair refrains to respect the 0.9285 support, the 0.9265, the 0.9240 and the 0.9200 can be considered as important levels to observe.  Meanwhile, the 0.9360, the 0.9385 and the 0.9410 can act as nearby barriers for the pair to clear in order to confront the 0.9435-40 resistance-region. Should the pair surpass the 0.9440 resistance, the 0.9480, the 0.9500 and the 0.9520 could be traders’ favorites.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Technical Checks For USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CAD & NZD/CAD: 01.03.2018

USD/CAD

Having successfully breached 200-day SMA, the USDCAD seems all set to challenge the 1.2910-20 horizontal-region, with 1.2880 likely offering immediate resistance to the pair; though, its further upside needs to confront overbought RSI levels in order to meet the 1.3000 round-figure, followed by 1.3010-15 resistance-area. Given the pair’s extended north-run beyond 1.3015, the 1.3040 and the 1.3200 could please the Bulls. In case if the quote witnesses a pullback from present levels, the 1.2800, the 1.2780 and the 1.2755 may entertain counter-trend traders, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 1.2700 again comes into play. Should prices drop below the 1.2700 mark on a daily closing basis, the 1.2635-30 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA and a month-long ascending trend-line, becomes important to watch.

CAD/JPY

Ever since the CADJPY broke fifteen month old ascending trend-line support, it kept trading southwards and is presently at the lowest levels since mid-2017 that signals 82.80 and the 82.50 as nearby supports. If the pair continued declining after 82.50, the 82.00, the 81.60 and the 81.20 are expected consecutive rests that it can avail prior to testing the 80.65-55 horizontal-line. Assuming oversold RSI plays its role and triggers the pair’s U-turn, the 83.75-85 and the 84.55 may act as immediate resistances for the pair to clear ahead of pushing buyers to target the 85.45-50 zone. Moreover, pair’s additional rise above 85.50 enables the optimists to aim for the 85.80, the 86.50 and the 86.70 resistance-levels.

AUD/CAD

Considering the AUDCAD’s recent reversal from nearly six-month long descending TL resistance, the pair likely dipping to 0.9900 support-level but its further downside can be confined by 0.9875-70 support-area, including 200-day SMA & an upward slanting trend-line. Should prices refrain to respect the 0.9870 mark, the 0.9855 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.9820 could gain market-attention. Meanwhile, 0.9975 may become adjacent cap for the pair before it can again confront the previously-mentioned TL figure of 0.9995. If the pair manage to surpass 0.9995, also clear the 1.0000 level above D1 close, the 1.0040 and the 1.0075 might be looked upon if holding a long position.

NZD/CAD

While NZDCAD’s trading above 0.9260 can help it claim the 0.9275 and the 0.9285-90 resistances, the pair may find it difficult to stretch its recovery beyond the 0.9305 horizontal-line. Let’s say the quote conquers the 0.9305 barrier, the 0.9325 and the 0.9350 can act as intermediate halts during its north-run towards 61.8% FE level of 0.9400. Alternatively, the 0.9260, the 0.9230 and the 0.9200–0.9195 horizontal-line might prove themselves as immediate supports, breaking which 0.9145 can acquire sellers’ eye-share. Furthermore, the 0.9100 and the 0.9075 can reappear on the chart if 0.9145 fails to hold the pair captive.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

NZDCAD, if You do not want to trade the USD today…

Today, all eyes are on Jerome Powell and his first big speech as a new FED Chairman. If You want attractions, feel free to enter any trade with the USD. If You try to avoid risk and excess volatility, maybe you should aim for other, more exotic instruments.

We have that covered. Currently, we see a nice setup on the NZDCAD, where we have high chances for a mid-term bearish movement. Why do we think that the price in the next few hours/days should go down? First of all, trendline. Yes, it is bullish but the price did not test it yet. Should the price do that? Well, it would be desirable movement, especially that we can see a beautiful correction equality pattern. That grey rectangles are around 170 pips. Three corrections that we saw so far had this amount of pips. The current one, less than 150. In other words, we see a big chance for the recent mid-term bearish correction to continue. Apart from that, we also have the 50% Fibonacci here, which also can be a big gravity source for the price.

NZDCAD 4H Chart
NZDCAD 4H Chart

In the long-term, the sentiment is still definitively bullish. The price touching the support around the 0.919 can be a great buying opportunity. Exactly, can be..so first, we need to get there and that is where we see a nice short/mid-term trading opportunity. That being said, our current view on this pair is bearish.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Outlook of Important NZD Pairs: 21.02.2018

NZD/USD

With the 0.7430-40 area again playing its role in restricting the NZDUSD’s upside, the pair seems coming down towards 0.7275 but the eleven-week long ascending trend-line, around 0.7250 now, might confine its declines then after. Should the quote refrains to respect the TL support, the 50-day SMA level of 0.7210 and the 0.7160, comprising 200-day SMA, could please the Bears. Meanwhile, the 0.7360 and the 0.7400 may try to limit the pair’s near-term advances before reigniting the importance of 0.7430-40 area. In case if Bulls manage to conquer the 0.7440 on a daily closing basis, the 0.7480, the 0.7525-30 and the 0.7560 should appear in their radars to target.

EUR/NZD

EURNZD’s sustained trading beneath the 100-day SMA level indicates brighter chances for the pair’s dip to six-month old upward slanting TL support of 1.6710. However, its south-run below 1.6710 has limited scope, but if happens could flash 1.6625 and the 1.6510 ahead of pushing sellers to aim for 1.6420 support-confluence, including 200-day SMA and more than a year long ascending trend-line. On the upside, the 1.6850 can act as immediate resistances for the pair prior to making it confront the 100-day SMA level of 1.6890 and then to the 1.7000 round-figure. Given the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.7000, the 1.7090–1.7100 horizontal-line becomes crucial to watch, breaking which the 1.7210 and the 1.7260 could entertain the buyers.

GBP/NZD

It’s been nearly a week that GBPNZD is clubbed in a small range between 1.9075-80 and the 1.8940-30. At present, prices are likely rushing towards the range support, i.e. 1.8940-30 zone, but higher than forecast UK Unemployment Rate may fetch them below the 1.8930, which in-turn could trigger the pair’s fresh south-run to 1.8860 and then to the 1.8800 support-level. If the pair smashes the 1.8800 mark, the 1.8730, the 1.8700 and the 1.8600 might come-back on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.9020 and the 1.9060 may pose as adjacent resistances for the pair, clearing which 1.9075-80 comes into play. Given the pair’s ability to surpass 1.9080, the 1.9100, the 1.9160 and the 1.9200 can please the optimists.

NZD/CAD

Even after testing the six-month high, the NZDCAD’s further advances might be capped by an ascending trend-line resistance, at 0.9305 now, which if broken could extend the pair’s rise in direction to 0.9355 and then to the channel-resistance of 0.9410. Assuming the pair’s successful break of 0.9410, the 0.9455 and the 0.9500 can be targeted while being long. Should overbought RSI performs its role and drag the pair downwards, the 0.9240 and the 0.9180 could gain traders’ attention, breaking which 0.9130, including channel-support, followed by 200-day SMA level of 0.9110, seem crucial to observe. Moreover, pair’s break of 0.9110, backed by a justification move-down beneath the 0.9100 round-figure on a daily closing basis, can recall 50-day SMA level of 0.9045 as a quote.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal