GOLD with a Proper Occasion to End the Downswing. Waiting for a nice sell signal on the USDCHF

Hello Friday! Be or not to be for many trading signals as today we are about to finish another weekly candle. There are some instruments, were the last week’s candle brought us a proper signal and in this week it is all about the confirmation. An example of that one is NZDCAD and that will be the first instrument in our short review.

This week was all about the confirmation of that long-term sell signal and most probably (as the day did not finish), sellers did a great job as we are about to close this week on new lows. That kind of price action can be considered as bearish and that is our view on this instrument.

Next one is gold, which finally reached our target – neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. Contact was positive for sellers as the price draw a nice hammer on the daily chart. As long as we stay above the neckline there is no sell signal. Actually, with that yesterday’s bounce, we may say that the sentiment is bullish.

Last one is the USDCHF, where we have a very nice bearish setup. Setup not signal though! For the signal we need to see a breakout of the lower line of the flag. What is interesting here is that the price is approaching a combination of 4 crucial resistances. If that is not a good place for a bounce than I do not know what is.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

AUD and NZD climb higher. Bitcoin takes a break

Charts are full of sudden and unexpected changes of the direction, boring sideways trends and false breakouts. As an example, I do have AUDUSD, where first, the price went down due to the dovish RBA and most recently, went higher thanks to the good retail sales data and the positive rumors about the agreement between the US and China – Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Technically, the movement is rather typical: false bearish breakout of crucial support brings us a strong upswing. The price is now testing the dynamic mid-term resistance. Breakout of that red line will bring us a nice buy signal.

Next instrument is NZDCAD. Today’s rises here are correlated with the strength of the AUD but also it is a take profit action from the recent significant drop. Rising prices create a great selling opportunity. The sell signal is still pretty strong and what you are getting now are the higher prices, which can significantly improve the risk to reward ratio of the short position.

The last one is the Bitcoin. After the rocket upswing that we witnessed yesterday, we have a time to relax right now. The sentiment is still super positive and the target for this upswing is around the psychological barrier of 6000 USD.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

New Zealand Dollar Crumbles as RBNZ Signals Possible Rate Cut

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The New Zealand Dollar tumbled across the board during the early parts of Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish shift caught markets by surprise.

With the central bank abandoning its long-standing neutral stance on interest rates and signalling a possible cut, the New Zealand Dollar is likely to weaken further. This is already being reflected in the NZDUSD which dropped a staggering 100+ pips in a matter of minutes following the RBNZ’s dovish statement. Focusing on the technical picture, the currency pair is turning bearish on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below 0.6810 higher low as of writing. Sustained weakness below this level will signal further downside with the next key point of interest at 0.6750. Alternatively, if 0.6810 proves to be reliable support, prices have the potential to rebound back towards 0.6850 before resuming the downtrend.

NZDJPY knocks on 75.00’s door 

The NZDJPY collapsed roughly 110 pips following the RBNZ’s dovish shift to trade around 75.00 as of writing. Prices are looking increasingly bearish on the daily charts with a breakdown below 75.00 opening a path towards 74.30. On the other hand, a rebound from 75.00 could send the NZDJPY back to 75.40.

EURNZD pushes above 1.6550 

We see weakness in the New Zealand Dollar pushing the EURNZD higher in the near term. For as long as the New Zealand Dollar continues to weaken, EURNZD bulls will remain in the driving seat moving forward. A solid daily close above the 1.6550 is seen pushing prices higher towards 1.6730.

NZDCAD sinks towards 0.9100 

The NZDCAD is on route to sinking lower if bears are able to secure a solid close below 0.9100. This pair has broken the bullish channel on the daily charts with bears eyeing 0.9100 and lower. A solid daily close below this point will most likely invite a decline towards 0.9000.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Technical Update For Important NZD Pairs: 31.01.2019

NZD/USD

NZDUSD heads to nearly eight-month old descending resistance-line, at 0.6945 now, breaking which the 0.6970 and the 0.7000 may please the Kiwi Bulls. Should prices rally beyond 0.7000, the 0.7050-55 and the 0.7100 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. In case overbought RSI play its role and drag the pair downwards, the 0.6870 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.6800, adjacent to 0.6760 TL support, can limit immediate declines. Given the pair drops beneath 0.6760, the 0.6705 mark including 100-day SMA and another support-line around 0.6635 becomes crucial to watch.

GBP/NZD

Having breached 1.9070-65 horizontal-support, the GBPNZD may slip to seven-week long ascending trend-line, at 1.8850, which if not respected can further fetch the quote to 1.8750. However, the 1.8600-1.8590 may restrict the pair’s dip past-1.8750, breaking which the 1.8475 and the 1.8375 could play their roles. On the contrary, an upside break of 1.9070 can avail 1.9100 and the 1.9190 resistances before confronting short-term resistance-line of 1.9225. Assuming the pair’s successful rise above 1.9225, the 1.9300 and the 1.9425 may please the buyers.

NZD/CAD

Unless clearing the 0.9085-75 region on H4 closing, chances of the NZDCAD’s pullback to the 0.9040 and then to the 0.9015 support-line can’t be denied. Though, pair’s extended south-run under 0.9015, also below 0.9000 psychological magnet, can drag it to the 0.8940 and to the 0.8905 rest-points. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.9085 enables the pair to aim for 0.9110 ahead of looking at the 0.9165-70 resistance-area. Moreover, buyers’ dominance after 0.9170 might not hesitate challenging the 0.9200 and the 0.9255 numbers to north.

NZD/CHF

Alike NZDUSD, the NZDCHF also rises towards the medium-term resistance, namely the 0.6900 TL, but overbought RSI may question the pair’s afterward strength. If at all prices continue rallying beyond 0.6900, the 0.6940 and the 0.6965 can offer intermediate halts to its run up targeting 0.7000 round-figure. Alternatively, the 0.6815, the 50-day SMA level of 0.6740 and the 0.6700 mark comprising 200-day SMA seem adjacent supports for the pair. Should the 0.6700 SMA figure fall short of limiting the pair’s drop, the 0.6640-35 support-confluence, encompassing 100-day SMA & an upward sloping trend-line, could grab market attention.

Technical Overview of Important CAD Pairs: 18.01.2019

USD/CAD

Having reversed from 1.3325-15 resistance, the USDCAD is declining towards 1.3210 but the ten-week old ascending support-line, at 1.3185, could confine the pair’s downside then after. Should prices continue trading southwards past-1.3185, the 1.3125 and the 1.3080 may offer intermediate halts during the pair’s slip to 1.3055. If at all the pair manage to surpass the 1.3325 upside barrier, the 1.3380 & the 1.3420 can please buyers prior to challenging them with 1.3440-45 resistance-region. Given the pair’s ability to cross the 1.3445 mark, the 1.3500 & the 1.3565 might gain market attention.

EUR/CAD

Alike USDCAD, the EURCAD is also gradually slipping in direction to a TL support, at 1.5060, which if broken highlights the importance of 1.5000 psychological magnet. During the pair’s sustained dip beneath 1.5000, the 1.4950 & the 1.4900 seem to be buffers ahead of fetching the quote to 1.4845 support. Alternatively, the 1.5170 trend-line resistance can limit the pair’s nearby advances, breaking which 1.5180 & 1.5240 could appear on Bulls’ radars. However, the 1.5300-1.5310 horizontal-zone may restrict the pair’s rally above 1.5240, if not then 1.5400 can come back on the chart.

NZD/CAD

Failure to overcome the 0.9075-85 resistance-area presently drags the NZDCAD to 0.8950 support-line, breaking which the 0.8930, the 0.8915 and the 0.8900 may entertain the sellers. Though, pair’s refrain to respect the 0.8900 round-figure might not hesitate calling the 61.8% FE level of 0.8870 as a quote. Meanwhile, the 0.9000 & the 0.9030 can act as adjacent resistances for the pair before fueling it to the 0.9060 resistance-line. Should prices surge past-0.9060, the 0.9075-85 and the 0.9110 can become optimists favorites.

Important NZD Pairs’ Technical Update: 20.12.2018

NZD/USD

While inability to sustain 200-day SMA dragged NZDUSD to five-week low, 50-day SMA & short-term ascending support-line presently restricts the pair’s further downside around 0.6730-20. Should the pair registers a daily closing beneath the 0.6720, the 0.6700 and 100-day SMA level of 0.6665 might entertain sellers before pleasing them with 0.6600 mark. On the contrary, 0.6820 and the 0.6835, comprising 200-day SMA, seem nearby resistances for the pair to clear, breaking which the 0.6850, the 0.6880 and the 0.6900 can play their roles. However, the 0.6965-75 and the 0.7000 round-figure may confine the pair’s advances past-0.6900.

EUR/NZD

Break of two-month old resistance-line helps the EURNZD to confront 50-day SMA level of 1.6915, which if broken on a D1 basis could propel the quote to 1.7115-20 region. In case buyers refrain to respect the 1.7120 barrier, the 1.7225, including 100-day SMA, followed by 1.7300, might challenge the Bulls. Assuming the pair’s failure to cross 1.6915, the 1.6790-75 support-zone can regain market attention as break of which may not hesitate fetching prices to the 1.6630 and the 1.6500 rest-points. If at all the pair continues declining under 1.6500, the 1.6420 and the 1.6325 may flash on Bears’ radar to target.

AUD/NZD

AUDNZD’s recent pullback couldn’t surpass a downward slanting trend-line since early-November, which in-turn drags the pair towards 1.0490 and 1.0450 supports. Given the pair’s extended downturn beneath 1.0450, the 1.0430, the 1.0400 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.0380 may appear on the chart. Alternatively, the 1.0580-85 area can limit the pair’s upside beyond 1.0550 trend-line break but successful clearance of 1.0585 may escalate the recovery to 1.0625 and the 1.0670. Though, the 1.0690-1.0700 could try questioning the pair’s strength after 1.0670, breaking which 1.0765 and the 1.0800 might become optimists favorites.

NZD/CAD

Having bounced off immediate support-line, the NZDUSD is again aiming for the 0.9185 resistance prior to confronting the 0.9250-55 multiple-top region; though, a sustained break of 0.9255 enables the pair to look for 61.8% FE level of 0.9320 as a landmark. Meanwhile, pair’s dip below 0.9070 TL support can trigger its south-run to 0.9000 and the 0.8915 levels. Moreover, the 0.8860, the 0.8770 and the 0.8745 are likely consecutive supports that could try holding the pair under 0.8915.

Technical Outlook For USD/CAD, AUD/CAD & NZD/CAD: 07.12.2018

USD/CAD

Even after trading at the highest levels in eighteen-months, the USDCAD has to close beyond 1.3410 on a weekly closing basis in order to aim for 1.3450 and the 1.3500 resistances-levels; however, the 1.3585-1.3600 confluence-region, including upper-line of an ascending trend-channel & horizontal-barrier, can confine the pair’s upside if at all it crosses 1.3500 mark. In case prices rally above 1.3600, the 1.3650 & 1.3740 may offer intermediate halts prior to highlighting the 1.3800 resistance. Alternatively, the 1.3330 & the 1.3260 could serve as immediate supports for the pair, breaking which 1.3180 & 1.3125 might gain traders’ attention. Given the sellers’ refrain to respect 1.3125, the 200-week SMA level around 1.3000 seems crucial to watch.

AUD/CAD

Not only six-week old upward slanting trend-line but 200-day SMA could also challenge the AUDCAD’s downside, which in-turn signal brighter chances of its pullback to the 0.9700 and then to the 0.9770 numbers to north. Should the quote manages to hold its strength past-0.9770, the 0.9800, the 0.9840 and the 0.9885 are likely following resistances to appear on the chart. Meanwhile, a D1 close beneath the 0.9660 TL-support needs to conquer 200-day SMA level of 0.9635 to revisit the 0.9600 and the 0.9550 rest-points. Moreover, pair’s sustained downturn below 0.9550 can avail 0.9515 and the 0.9465, including 100-day SMA, as supports.

NZD/CAD

NZDCAD’s failure to hold 0.9185-75 breakout maintains the importance of resistance-turned-support, breaking which the pair can come back to an ascending TL, at 0.9120. If at all the 0.9120 fall short of limiting the price decline, the 0.9100, the 0.9035 and the 0.9000 could become Bears’ favorites. On the contrary, the 0.9260, the 0.9285 and the 0.9315-25 can keep trying to restrict the pair’s near-term advances, which if broken may escalate its rise to 0.9365 level. Additionally, the 0.9400 and the 0.9445 might please Bulls beyond 0.9365.

Technical Checks For Important NZD Pairs: 31.10.2018

NZD/USD

Even after bouncing off the 0.6500 round-figure, NZDUSD couldn’t clear the 0.6575-80 resistance-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & a short-term descending trend-line, which triggered the pair’s pullback towards 0.6500 re-test. In case the pair refrain to respect the 0.6500 mark, the 0.6470 and the 0.6420 are likely following rests that can be availed but its slide beneath the same could highlight the importance of 61.8% FE level of 0.6345. Alternatively, a D1 close beyond 0.6580 can escalate the pair’s recovery to 0.6610 and then to another downward slanting resistance-line, at 0.6655. Given the pair’s successful rise above 0.6655, the 100-day SMA level of 0.6675 and the 0.6700 may please the buyers.

EUR/NZD

EURNZD struggles with 100-day SMA level of 1.7375 in order to justify its strength in targeting the 1.7410-15; though, pair’s advances past-1.7415 might find it hard to conquer the 1.7520 trend-line. Should prices surpass 1.7520 on a daily closing basis, the 1.7540 and the 50-day SMA level of 1.7600 can appear in the Bulls radar. Meanwhile, the 1.7260, 1.7200 and the 1.7155, including 200-day SMA, might offer immediate supports to the pair prior to dragging it to the 1.7115-05 horizontal-support. Assuming the quote’s dip below 1.7100, the 1.7020 and the 1.7000 psychological magnet could become sellers’ favorites.

NZD/JPY

With its repeated reversals from 72.30-20 support-zone, NZDJPY is likely to confront 100-day SMA level of 74.50 but its further upside can be restricted by nine-month old descending TL, at 74.80. If at all the pair manage to cross 74.80, the 75.50 and 200-day SMA level of 76.00 may be observed if holding long positions. On the contrary, 73.55 can serve as adjacent support, breaking which 73.10 & 72.70 might act as intermediate halts before dragging the pair to 72.30-20 again. However, pair’s plunge below 72.20 opens the gate for 61.8% FE level of 71.00.

NZD/CAD

Having smashed 50-day SMA, the NZDCAD is expected to run towards eight-week long resistance-line, around 0.8650, which if broken could propel the quote to 0.8690 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.8730. In case the prices keep rallying above 0.8730, the 0.8780 and the 0.8825-30 area can challenge the optimists. Let’s say the pair closes beneath 50-day SMA level of 0.8555, then the 0.8520 support-line figure becomes an important number to watch as break of which can flash 0.8450 & 0.8390 on the chart. Moreover, pair’s extended south-run after 0.8390 may have 0.8320 and the 0.8245, comprising 61.8% FE, as supports.

Technical Outlook For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD & NZD/CAD: 05.09.2018

USD/CAD

Having breached 50-day SMA & near-term important TL, the USDCAD seems all set to challenge the 1.3265-70 horizontal-region but overbought RSI might question the pair’s further upside. Though, pair’s sustained rise beyond 1.3270 can help it aim for the 1.3330 and the 1.3385 resistances. Meanwhile, the 1.3160 could offer immediate support during the pair’s pullback before highlighting the resistance-turned-support confluence of 1.3100-3090. Given the sellers fetch prices beneath 1.3090 on a daily closing basis, the 1.3000, the 1.2910 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.2850 may gain market attention.

EUR/CAD

Even after taking a U-turn from resistance-line of short-term “Rising Wedge”, the EURCAD can’t be considered weak unless declining beneath the 1.5165 support-line. As a result, chances of the pair’s pullback to 1.5290 and consequent advances to 1.5320-25 horizontal-line can’t be denied. Should the pair crosses 1.5325 barrier, the 1.5370, the 1.5415 and the 1.5440 can entertain buyers prior to pleasing them with 1.5465 mark. On the downside, the 1.5185 and the 1.5165 may limit the pair’s nearby downside, break of which can confirm the bearish technical pattern with theoretical targets of 1.5050 and the 1.5010-5000. Moreover, pair’s weakness below 1.5000 might not hesitate testing the 1.4885, the 1.4830 and the 1.4800 rest-points.

GBP/CAD

GBPCAD’s bounce off the 1.6595-85 support-zone has to surpass the 50-day SMA level of 1.7035 in order to be capable of visiting the 1.7155 mark but its further upside might find it hard to conquer the 100-day SMA & five-month old descending TL, around 1.7240-50. Assuming that the quote closes beyond 1.7250 on a D1 basis, the 1.7465-70 may flash in the Bulls’ radar. In case prices fail to hold recent recovery, the 1.6800 can act as adjacent support for the pair, breaking which the 1.6750 and the 1.6585-75 could play their roles. It should also be noted that the pair’s drop below 1.6575 can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 1.6355-50 support-area.

NZD/CAD

With the five-week old descending trend-line restricting the NZDCAD’s immediate rise around 0.8660, the pair is likely to revisit the 0.8615 and the 0.8600-0.8595 support-region. Though, refrain to respect the 0.8595 can drag the quote to 0.8560 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 0.8495. Alternatively, a clear break of 0.8660 could escalate the pair’s recovery towards 0.8685 and the 0.8740 levels ahead of highlighting the 0.8775 and the 0.8825-30. If the pair continue trading north-wards after 0.8830 then the 0.8875 and the 0.8920 might become traders’ favorites.

USD/CAD Daily Price Forecast – Fading NAFTA Optimism Pressures Canadian Loonie.

The USD/CAD pair failed to capitalize on the weekly bullish gap and was now seen consolidating in a range, just above mid-1.3000s. The pair broke to the upside last Friday and reached a fresh weekly high at 1.3087. Price was holding near the highs, with a bullish tone, consolidating important daily gains. From the weekly low the pair raised almost 200 pips.

The move to the upside followed comments from Canadian negotiator Freeland who said “we’re not there yet” regarding the trade deal with the US and Mexico. PM Trudeau added that a “no deal” on NAFTA was better than a bad one. Also, the pair moved higher on the back of a stronger US dollar which gained momentum amid risk aversion market sentiment. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to exclude Canada from a new NAFTA agreement after the recent US-Canada trade negotiations ended without any agreement. Trump also warned the Congress not to interfere with these negotiations or he would simply terminate the trilateral NAFTA pact altogether.

Exit From NAFTA Looks Highly Likely For Canada

While Canadian Prime minister is ready for NAFTA exit instead of agreeing to a bad deal, Loonie struggles to come to terms on NAFTA proceedings which kept weighing on the Canadian Dollar at the start of a new trading week. The pair touched an intraday high level of 1.3077, albeit struggled to gain any follow-through traction despite a combination of supporting factors. A modest US Dollar uptick, coupled with a mildly negative tone around crude oil prices, which tend to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, did little to inspire the bulls and eventually led to a subdued/range-bounce price action through the early European session earlier today.

Moreover, traders also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets amid holiday-thinned liquidity conditions on the back of a bank holiday, both in the US and Canada. Moving ahead, this week’s important macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the keenly watched US non-farm payrolls data, and the latest BoC monetary policy update on Wednesday will play a key role in determining the pair’s next leg of directional move.

Despite last week’s strong up-move, the pair remains within a short-term descending trend-channel held over the past two months or so. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive move beyond the channel resistance, currently near the 1.3100 handles, before placing any major bets in Greenback’s favor. On the flip side, a slide back below the key 1.30 psychological mark would reinforce the trend-channel and turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards challenging the 1.2900 handle support.

 

Technical Overview of Important NZD Pairs: 22.08.2018

NZD/USD

Having taken a U-turn from 0.6720-25 resistance-confluence, NZDUSD highlights the importance of a week-long ascending trend-line, at 0.6655, which if broken can further fetch the quote to the 0.6640 and the 0.6610 supports. Given the pair’s additional downturn beneath 0.6610, the 0.6570 and the 0.6545 can entertain sellers. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.6725 can quickly propel the pair to 0.6765 and then to the 0.6800 resistance-mark. Also, pair’s successful advances past-0.6800 can confront the 0.6830 and the 0.6860 north-side barriers.

NZD/JPY

Alike NZDUSD, the NZDJPY also reversed from immediate resistance, namely the 74.05-10 horizontal-region, which in-turn signal brighter chances for the pair’s drop to the 73.55 and to the 73.20 TL figure. Should prices continue trading southwards after 73.20, the 72.80 and the 72.30 may please the Bears. In case the pair surpasses 74.10 resistance, its rise to 74.50 and 74.75 could well be expected. However, a month-long downward slanting trend-line, around 75.45-50, might challenge the buyers beyond 74.75.

AUD/NZD

AUDNZD is likely clubbed in a symmetrical triangle between the 1.0940 support and the 1.1030 resistance but oversold RSI levels indicate the pair’s strength to come. Hence, the 1.1070 and the 1.1125 to gain investor attention once 1.1030 is broken. If Bulls refrain to respect 1.1125 hurdle, the 1.1175 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.1230 may receive optimists’ eye-share. Meanwhile, break of 1.0940 can flash 1.0900 and the 1.0845-40 as quotes whereas 1.0775 and the 1.0710 could become important to observe afterwards.

NZD/CAD

Even after failing to clear the two-month old descending trend-line, the NZDCAD’s near-term declines can be restricted by the 0.8685 TL support. Given the pair drops below 0.8685, the 0.8630 and the 0.8600 may offer intermediate halts during its plunge to 0.8560 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.8500. On the upside, the 0.8745 seems crucial for short-term buyers as break of the same could escalate the pair moves to the 0.8785 and then to the 0.8825-35 resistance-zone. Assuming that the pair keeps rising above 0.8835, the 0.8870, the 0.8915 and the 0.8975 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart.

USDCAD defends the long-term up trendline

Last week was great for the USD. Dollar Index made new long-term highs and the EURUSD broke important supports. On almost all instruments with the USD, we can find interesting setups. Today, we present you the USDCAD, where the buy signal is still relatively fresh.

It seems like this pair is coming back to the uptrend, after being in a deeper correction since the end of June. Our positive view on the USDCAD is based on the few factors. First one is the long-term up trendline, which supports higher lows and highs since the beginning of February (green). At the beginning of August, the price bounced again, which confirms the uptrend in 2018. The second factor is the flag (blue lines). This is a trend continuation pattern, so we should see the breakout of the upper line soon. Last but not least is the breakout of the horizontal resistance on the 1.31 (red). The price being above that line is a confirmation of the positive sentiment.

USD/CAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD Daily Chart

With this setup, in the next few weeks, we should see the further upswing. All we need for a legitimate trigger is the daily candlestick closing above the blue line, which can happen as soon as today.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Important CAD Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 09.08.2018

USD/CAD

Although 50-day & 100-day SMA has been restricting the USDCAD moves since last fortnight, the 1.2960-55 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & an ascending TL, could keep indicating the pair’s upside with 1.3060 being immediate resistances to tackle before confronting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115. Given the pair’s ability to close beyond the 1.3115, the 1.3190 and the downward slanting trend-line, at 1.3215, seem crucial to watch as they hold the door for the quote’s rally towards the 1.3265, the 1.3340 and the 1.3385 resistances. In case the pair dips beneath the 1.2960 on a daily closing basis, the 1.2900, the 1.2865 and the 1.2800 can mark their presence on the chart ahead of highlighting the 1.2730 and the 1.2625 rest-points.

EUR/CAD

Although 50-day & 100-day SMA has been restricting the USDCAD moves since last fortnight, the 1.2960-55 support-confluence, comprising 100-day SMA & an ascending TL, could keep indicating the pair’s upside with 1.3060 being immediate resistances to tackle before confronting the 50-day SMA level of 1.3115. Given the pair’s ability to close beyond the 1.3115, the 1.3190 and the downward slanting trend-line, at 1.3215, seem crucial to watch as they hold the door for the quote’s rally towards the 1.3265, the 1.3340 and the 1.3385 resistances. In case the pair dips beneath the 1.2960 on a daily closing basis, the 1.2900, the 1.2865 and the 1.2800 can mark their presence on the chart ahead of highlighting the 1.2730 and the 1.2625 rest-points.

NZD/CAD

Even after testing the lowest levels of 2018, mainly due to RBNZ’s dovish statement, the NZDCAD still has to close beneath the five-year old upward slanting trend-line, at 0.8640, on a weekly closing basis in order to stretch its downturn to 0.8580 and the 0.8510 supports. Should prices continue declining beneath the 0.8510, the 0.8430 and the 0.8350 can flash in the Bears’ radar. Alternatively, the 0.8730, the 0.8820 and the 0.8850 can act as adjacent resistances for the pair, breaking which the 0.8980 and the 0.9000 might play their role of upside hurdle. If the pair manage to surpass the 0.9000 mark, the 0.9100-0.9110 resistance-area, including the 200-week SMA level & descending TL, can be targeted if holding long positions.

CAD/CHF

Unless breaking the seven-week long ascending trend-line, at 0.7600 now, chances of the CADCHF’s pullback to 0.7650 and then to the 0.7665 can’t be denied; though, recent high of 0.7675, ascending TL figure of 0.7685 and the 61.8% FE level of 0.7700 could check the pair’s strength afterwards. Assuming the pair’s rise above 0.7700, the 0.7735 and the 0.7765 can become buyers favorite. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.7600 can drag the quote to the 0.7585 and the 0.7560 supports prior to increasing the importance of 0.7500 round-figure. Also, pair’s plunge past-0.7500 can avail the 0.7460, the 0.7425 and the 0.7390 rest-points during further weakness.

Technical Overview of NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD & NZD/CAD: 02.08.2018

NZD/USD

As the month long symmetrical triangle restricts the NZDUSD moves, chances favoring the present downturn to be challenged by the formation support, at 0.6730, are quite high; though, failure to turn down the sellers can further fetch the quote towards the 0.6715 and the 0.6690 supports. In case Bears keep ruling trade sentiment past-0.6690, the 61.8% FE level of 0.6625 and the 0.6600 round-figure could mark their appearance on the chart. On the contrary, the 0.6790 and the 0.6810 might try to confine the pair’s immediate upside before the pattern-resistance, at 0.6850, comes into play. If at all the pair surpasses 0.6850 mark, the 0.6885, the 0.6915-20 and the 0.6955-60 may pop-up in the buyers’ radars to target.

EUR/NZD

Alike NZDUSD, the EURNZD seems also finding it hard to break the short-term symmetrical triangle, which in-turn can confine the pair’s recent recovery around 1.7260. Should prices refrain to respect the 1.7260 barrier, the 1.7315-20 and the 1.7380 are likely following resistances to observe as break of which may propel the pair to 61.8% FE level of 1.7465. Meanwhile, the 1.7125 can offer adjacent support to the pair during its pullback ahead of highlighting the pattern support of figure of 1.7095. Assuming that the pair continue declining after 1.7095 then the 1.7000, the 1.6960 and the 1.6920 may act as buffer prior to diverting market attention on the 1.6820-10 horizontal support-zone.

GBP/NZD

GBPNZD’s uptick on BoE decision still has to cross the 1.9425-30 horizontal-area in order to aim for the 1.9500 but four-week old descending trend-line, at 1.9530, could limit the pair’s additional rise. Given the quote’s ability to conquer the 1.9530 hurdle, it can extend the north-run to 1.9580 and the 1.9620 resistance-levels. If prices fail to sustain latest strength then the 1.9360, the 1.9300 and the 1.9255 can provide intermediate halts to their drop targeting 1.9220 support-line. Moreover, pair’s dip beneath the 1.9220 can make the 1.9140, the 1.9030 and the 1.9000 as sellers’ favorites.

NZD/CAD

Contrast to all the aforementioned currency-pairs, the NZDCAD has already broken an important support-line, now being resistance near 0.8850, and is likely to revisit the 0.8785 and the 0.8740 rest-points. However, the 0.8685-80 could question the pair’s weakness post-0.8740, if not then 0.8640 might be checked as strong support. Alternatively, a D1 close beyond 0.8850 can trigger the pair’s short-covering rally in direction the 0.8870 and the 0.8915 whereas 0.8970 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.9000 may disappoint the Bulls afterwards. If the pair stretch its up-moves above 0.9000, the 200-day SMA level of 0.9040 and the downward slanting TL figure of 0.9110 seem crucial to watch.

NZD/CAD with a clean technical setup

This week starts with the weaker USD and stronger EUR but we can see a great situation on the pair other than from the majors’ group – NZDCAD. Since the beginning of July, this pair was locked inside of the symmetric triangle pattern (blue). The volatility was decreasing and we were waiting for a breakout.

Breakout happened at the end of the week and it was to the downside. NZDCAD decided to use this pattern for a trend continuation as that what the trend was before the triangle was formed. After the breakout, the price went lower but met a very important support – long-term up trendline (black), where the take profit action took place. Currently, the price is testing the previous support as the closest resistance. Any bearish price action on the orange area will be a strong sell signal strengthened by the bounce from the 50% Fibonacci.

NZDCAD 4H Chart
NZDCAD 4H Chart

At the beginning of the European session, NZDCAD draws a shooting star on the H4 chart but as for now, this one is not respected. Sellers need to wait for something more encouraging. Possible sell signal will be denied, once the price will come back above the orange area but as for now, it is less likely to happen.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Will the USD/CAD Bulls Hold Their Nerve?

Any signs of recovery were hammered on July 20 when the pairing fell 140 pips on news that Canada’s May retail sales had shot up 2%, rather than the forecast 1.1%. Recent comments by US President Donald Trump about his disdain for domestic interest rate hikes have also put pressure on the US Dollar.

But are we seeing an end to the USD/CAD upward momentum, or is this simply a slight pullback before the chart begins moving north again? The answer will likely be determined more by what Mr. Trump and the US is doing, rather than anything happening in Canada. That’s not a dig at Canada, more a reflection of the importance of the US dollar to all world markets.

The Canadian dollar, steady as she goes

The Canadians are widely seen as being dependable folk, and their currency is also regarded as one of the world’s most stable, traded by long-term investors and intraday traders in large numbers. Interest has increased locally because residents now benefit from using brokers with $1 million protection offered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), which pays out if a broker goes belly up.

Because the Canadian dollar is the fifth most commonly held currency, it usually does not show the sort of hair-raising price volatility that befalls smaller currencies. But that’s not to say traders can’t take advantage. Intraday corrections come thick and fast on the back of regular scheduled economic news announcements, just like the Retail Sales one on Friday, July 20. This is a monthly statistic, along with Labour Force Survey (Canada’s employment figures), Consumer Price Index and Industrial Price Index. Traders also eagerly await the quarterly Gross Domestic Product figures.

But it’s commodity prices that have a huge impact on the Canadian dollar. The country relies heavily on its natural resources of oil, lumber and natural gas, and exports much of this abroad. This means that not only is foreign demand a pressure factor, but also the price of crude oil itself. When the price of crude slumped from US$105 to US$45 in 2014/15, Canada’s economy took a hit, sending it into a downturn for the first time in years. It’s often said that commodity prices, especially oil, have a greater influence on the Canadian dollar than economic news, and it’s no great surprise given the country’s reliance on its natural resources. Oil prices rise since the beginning of 2018 which helped the Canadain dollar to remain strong versus the greenback and other currencies. As long as oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar might be a correct position.

For the long-term investor, most of these volatility factors (economic news and the price of crude oil, for example) can be exploited by riding on the back of a long-term trend. But as we’ve seen, in a currency pairing like USD/CAD it takes two to tango. And when you’re dance partner is the US, it tends to take the lead.

USD volatility, the Trump effect

The US dollar is subject to volatility like any other currency, with changes to supply and demand, commodity prices and regular economic data all pushing or pulling the price up or down. As the most traded currency in the world, second-guessing which way the USD will go has become an art form. But now there is a new factor influencing the currency’s fortunes, and it’s one that is becoming rather hard to predict.

Step forward Donald Trump, the US President whose habit of speaking his mind often has ripple effects in the markets. While his imposition of trade tariffs with the European Union, Canada and China buoyed sentiment, the currency dropped when he openly questioned the Fed’s policy of interest rate hikes, suggesting it was keeping the dollar too high. Mr. Trump wants a lower dollar, making it cheaper for the US to do business abroad. And if there’s one thing we’ve come to learn about Mr. Trump, it’s that he likes to get what he wants.

USD/CAD long or short?

With all this variance and the unpredictability of looming trade wars, Brexit and maybe a currency war, too, how can you call what the future movement of the USD/CAD pairing will be? You can certainly look at our own financial market forecasts and analysis, but your willingness to jump in might be influenced by your desire to try to cash in on short-term movements or to hang in there for the long term.

As we’ve seen, the long-term trend for USD/CAD is bullish. The USD has been consistently strong, while the Canadian dollar less so. If you believe Mr. Trump won’t have any influence on the Federal Reserve’s decision making on interest rates, which he really shouldn’t as its meant to be impartial to political interference, then interest rates will continue on an upward curve, which in turn will keep the US dollar high. However, even Mr. Trump talking about interest rates has brought a dollar price correction, and any hint that the Fed might actually shift policy might make the dollar price fall further.

What is clear is that the Canadian economy is going through a purple patch. While retail sales are up, so too is inflation, with the figure at a six-year high of 2.5% in June, fuelled by increasing gas costs. What that means is the possibility of another increase in interest rates, which would drive up the Canadian dollar, and potentially drive down the USD/CAD, but only if the US dollar continues to weaken.

So, with all things considered, and without a crystal ball to give you the answer, the best bet might well be to follow the long-term trend and go long on USD/CAD. But intraday traders can lick their lips at short-term volatility, so long as they’re on the right side of any correction. Following Mr. Trump on Twitter now seems as important as watching out for key financial news, and it’s probably a lot more entertaining.

Technical Update For USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, NZD/CAD & CAD/CHF: 26.07.2018

USD/CAD

USDCAD’s dip beneath the 50-day SMA & four-month old horizontal-region can’t be termed as strong Bearish signal as 100-day SMA level of 1.2955, an upward slanting TL stretched since early-February, at 1.2890, and the 1.2805 figure comprising 200-day SMA, still stand tall to challenge sellers. In case if the pair closes below 1.2805 on D1 basis, it can then aim for 1.2740 and the 1.2700 support-levels. On the upside, the 1.3045-50 horizontal-line and the 50-day SMA level of 1.3090 could try limiting the pair’s near-term advances, breaking which the 1.3110, the 1.3160 and the 1.3210 might offer intermediate halts before highlighting the 1.3270 trend-line barrier. Should the 1.3270 fails to disappoint buyers, the 1.3320-30 and the 1.3385 may appear in their radar to target.

EUR/CAD

Given the EURCAD’s daily closing below 50-day SMA, the 1.5200 is likely to appear on the chart but the 1.5140-50 region can confine the pair’s additional declines. Though, pair’s sustained downturn past-1.5140 can avail the 1.5060 and the 1.5000 mark as buffers prior to diverting market attention to recent low of 1.4915. If at all the quote closes above 50-day SMA level of 1.5290, it can revisit the 1.5320 and the 1.5360 resistances ahead of pushing bulls to aim for the 1.5440, the 1.5470 and the 1.5515 trend-line. Moreover, pair’s successful trading beyond 1.5515 may not hesitate questioning the strength of the 1.5580, the 1.5640 and the 1.5710 resistances.

NZD/CAD

Having reversed from resistance-line of short-term descending triangle formation, the NZDCAD seems all set to re-test the 0.8875-70 horizontal-support, which if fail to restrict the pair’s south-run can drag it to 0.8860 and the 0.8830 rest-points. Also, pair’s refrain to respect the 0.8830 mark can make it vulnerable to plunge towards 61.8% FE level of 0.8770. Alternatively, the 0.8915 and the 0.8950 can please counter-trend traders during the pair’s U-turn but the aforementioned TL, at 0.8960, may tame its further advances. However, break of  0.8960 could theoretically confirm the pair’s rise to the 0.9100 number with the 0.9000 and the 0.9065 being intermediate stops.

CAD/CHF

Unless clearing the 200-day SMA level of 0.7615 on a daily closing basis, the CADCHF can’t be termed strong enough to aim for the 0.7665 resistance, breaking which 0.7700-0.7705 becomes crucial to watch. In case the pair conquers the 0.7705 hurdle,  the 0.7740, the 0.7765 and the 0.7805 might lure the buyers. Meanwhile, inability to surpass the 0.7615 may reprint 0.7585 on the chart while immediate ascending TL figure of 0.7535 can restrict the pair’s following downside. Assuming that the prices drop below 0.7535, then the 0.7510, the 0.7445 trend-line number and the 0.7400 may please the Bears.

Three Great Trading Setups: One Rectangle and Two Triangles

Overnight, we received data important for the AUD. CPI came slightly worse than expectations, which caused a weakness of the Australian Dollar. On the EURAUD it did not come in a random place. The price again bounced from the support on the 1.571. We are still locked inside of the sideways trend, waiting for a breakout.

NZDCAD is also in a sideways trend, in a symmetric triangle pattern to be precise. It is a very interesting occasion because this pair loves directional movements so most probably, a breakout will be a great trading opportunity

USDJPY is still above the combination of crucial supports: long-term down trendline and mid-term up trendline. We also do have a short-term horizontal support here. As long as we stay above the lower pink area, the sentiment is positive. In the same time, we do have a triangle here so the breakout of its upper line will be a long-term buy signal.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Technical Checks For Important CAD Pairs: 18.07.2018

USD/CAD

Even after clearing the 1.3215-20 resistance-region, USDCAD needs to conquer the 1.3260-65 horizontal-area in order to extend its recovery towards the 1.3300 and the 1.3340 resistances. Though, pair’s ability to surpass the 1.3340 can escalate its north-run in direction to the June high of 1.3385 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 1.3460. In case the quote fails to cross the 1.3265 immediate barrier, it can revisit the 1.3220-15 zone, breaking which 1.3160 and an upward slanting TL, at 1.3125, may confine the pair’s following declines. It should also be noted that the pair’s additional downturn beneath the 1.3125 can drag it to the 1.3060, the 1.3030 and to the 1.3000 psychological magnet.

GBP/CAD

While USDCAD has another resistance to break after clearing an intermediate hurdle, the GBPCAD’s recent break of ascending trend-line can’t be termed as a sign of its plunge unless closing below the 1.7160 TL-mark on a daily basis. If the pair closes below 1.7160, the 1.7050 and the 1.7000 are likely supports that it could avail before testing the 1.6860 and the 1.6750 rest-points. On the upside, a D1 close beyond 1.7320 can trigger the pair’s recovery to the 1.7400, the 1.7460 and the 1.7550 resistances. However, pair’s break of 1.7550 may find it hard to confront the four-month old descending TL, at 1.7600, adjacent to the 100-day SMA level of 1.7635.

NZD/CAD

NZDCAD seems preparing itself to reach the 50-day SMA level of 0.8995 for one more time with 0.8965 acting as a halt during its rise. Should the pair rallies above 0.8995, the 0.9030 and the 0.9100 can please the buyers prior to challenging them with 100-day SMA level of 0.9130. Alternatively, the 0.8925 and the 0.8875 may entertain short-term sellers but the 0.8840 level, comprising seven-month long ascending TL, could limit the pair’s further weakness. Given the Bears’ refrain to respect the 0.8840 support, the 0.8800 and the 0.8780 might appear in their radar to target.

CAD/CHF

Following its break of four-week old ascending trend-line, the CADCHF is expected to re-test the 0.7530 horizontal-line, which if can’t stop the pair’s drop can register the 0.7500 and the 0.7470 numbers on the chart. Moreover, pair’s extended downside below 0.7470 could have 0.7425 as a buffer  ahead of highlighting the 0.7390 for traders. Meanwhile, 0.7580 and the 0.7600 can provide near-term cap to the prices before the 0.7620 resistance-line. In case the pair crosses 0.7620 line, the 0.7665 and the 0.7700 might become Bulls’ favorites.

New Zealand Dollar Slightly Higher as Inflation Expected to Remain Steady

The U.S. dollar was seen posting gains on Friday as price action remained strong toward the close of the week. The economic data was quiet for the most part. Switzerland’s PPI figures released earlier in the day showed a 0.2% increase on the month as expected.

The U.S. import prices fell 0.4% missing estimates of a 0.1% increase instead. Previous month’s data was revised higher to 0.9%.

Earlier in the day, China’s GDP report showed that the economy advanced 6.7% matching estimates. Industrial production was, however, weaker, rising just 6.0% and falling short of the 6.5% forecast.

The economic data for the day includes the U.S. retail sales figures. Economists forecast that headline retail sales increased 0.4% on the month. This marks a slower pace of increased compared to the 0.8% gain seen the month before. Core retail sales are also forecast to rise 0.4%.

New Zealand will be releasing its quarterly CPI later tonight. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in inflation during the second quarter. The New Zealand Dollar gained 0.07% on Monday morning, trading at 0.6772.

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EURUSD intra-day analysis

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

EURUSD (1.1683): The EURUSD was seen falling to a fresh 10-day low on Friday as price action touched 1.1608 on the day. However, the intraday declines recovered as the currency pair managed to close slightly bullish. Price action was seen closing near 1.1695 on Friday’s close which marks the previously breached support level. A rebound off this level is required in order to confirm the upside in prices. If the EURUSD posts a reversal near this price level we expect to see further declines that could send the common currency falling toward 1.1600 regions.

USDJPY intra-day analysis

USD/JPY 4H Chart
USD/JPY 4H Chart

USDJPY (112.48): The USDJPY currency pair rallied to a six month high on Friday before giving up the gains. Price action quickly reversed back to 112.28 level. As long as this minor support holds, the currency pair could be seen consolidating at the currency levels. In the event of a break down below this level, then USDJPY could extend the losses toward the next lower support at 111.13. However, the major falling trend line is expected to act as dynamic support in the short term.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

Gold 4H Chart
Gold 4H Chart

XAUUSD (1243.21): Gold prices were seen posting declines on the day as price touched fresh intraday lows of 1240.81. The recovery in the declines saw gold prices trading back near the price level of 1242. A breakout above this level is required to confirm the upside momentum that could be building up. Failure to close above 1247 could, however, trigger further gains that could push the price of spot gold toward the 1258 handle. To the downside, we expect to see price action consolidating at the current levels.

This article was written by Orbex