The NZDUSD is in a false bearish breakout from the falling wedge pattern. That is possibly a very nice buying opportunity.
The GBPNZD is testing the combination of three important dynamic supports. A breakout can be an amazing sell signal.
The EURJPY broke the upper line of the wedge and is aiming higher with a buy signal.
The GBPCAD is in a giant symmetric triangle on the weekly chart. We will probably have to wait a long time till until the breakout but it will most probably be worth it.
The NZDJPY is in a flag formation. A breakout of its upper line will bring the positive sentiment back.
The GBPJPY is forming a head and shoulders pattern inside of the symmetric triangle pattern. A breakout of the lower line (and the neckline at the same time) can be a good bearish signal and a breakout to the upside can be a signal to go long.
The US dollar has rallied during the course of the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 50 day EMA and of course the psychologically important ¥110 level. That is an area that of course is an important area that we have seen tested multiple times in both directions. The market has a significant amount of resistance just above here at the ¥110.75 level, so whether or not we can break above there is a completely different question, and quite frankly would not be surprised at all to see that area fail. Furthermore, if you look at this chart you can make a little bit of an argument for a descending channel as of late.
USD/JPY Video 09.08.21
If we do turn around a break down below the 50 day EMA, then I think we will start granting down towards the 200 day EMA underneath, which is currently sitting at the ¥108.50 level. After all, the area of about one handle above or we are right now significant resistance that extends all the way to the ¥112 level. It is a longer-term area to worry about, so it makes quite a bit of sense that it would take a massive amount of effort to get through. With that being the case, I think it is only a matter of time before we roll over.
That being said, if the pair does tend to go higher over the longer term, I do not necessarily know that I would be a buyer of this one, but I might be convinced to buy pairs with a bit more alpha, speaking specifically of the GBP/JPY pair, AUD/JPY pair, and the NZD/JPY pair.
There’s an excellent long-term setup on the CHFJPY, where we are finishing a bearish correction. The price is bouncing from the combination of a horizontal and dynamic support and everything seems ready for another bullish wave.
The AUDNZD is in a short-term sideways movement but with a long-term negative outlook.
The NZDCHF is in a perfect flag formation. For the buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the upper line of this pattern.
The NZDJPY is in a similar situation but here we additionally have a bounce from the horizontal support. The sentiment is positive.
Silver uses every chance to go lower. Currently, we are testing the long-term support of a symmetric triangle. The outlook is rather negative.
The dollar Index broke the neckline of the giant inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and yesterday it defended it as a support with a hammer candle. That is definitely a positive and optimistic sign for buyers.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at 0.25% but cut short a NZ$100 billion ($70 billion) bond buying programme, prompting local banks to bring forward calls for a rate rise to as early as August, which would put New Zealand at the forefront of countries to raise interest rates.
“The RBNZ has absolutely done enough hand-waving today to tick the ‘market-prep’ box for an August hike, with CPI and labour market data set to do the rest,” said Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.
The move comes amid nagging inflation worries globally, with U.S. inflation data rising by the most in 13 years in June, adding to uncertainty about whether such inflationary pressures are transitory.
New Zealand’s pandemic-free economy has been growing on the back of a housing boom and strong retail spending, raising concerns that it may get overheated pushing inflation above the bank’s target and squeeze the labour market.
First quarter GDP swept past forecasts, rising 1.6%. A survey last week showed the business outlook was now better than pre-COVID levels, and hiring constraints and inflationary pressures were starting to bite.
The RBNZ noted that in the absence of further economic shocks, consumer price inflation pressure is expected to build over time due to rising domestic capacity pressures and growing labour shortages.
“Members agreed that the major downside risks of deflation and high unemployment have receded,” the RBNZ said in minutes of the meeting.
“The (Monetary Policy) Committee agreed that a ‘least regrets’ policy now implied that the significant level of monetary support in place since mid-2020 could be reduced sooner.”
CHANGE OF TACK
A rate hike this year would make New Zealand the first developed economy to kick off policy tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia said earlier this month that it did not expect a rate rise before 2024.
The New Zealand dollar rose 1.1% after the announcement to $0.7017. Yields on two-year bonds surged 9 basis points to its high for this year at 1.668%.
“The RBNZ has clearly changed tack to decide that the time for reducing monetary stimulus is very near. The risk of inflation and employment undershooting the objectives has switched to the risk of overshooting should the current level of stimulus remain in place,” said Nick Tuffley, Chief Economist at ASB Bank.
The RBNZ slashed its interest rate to record lows in March last year and pumped billions of dollars in stimulus as the COVID-19 pandemic raged through the country and the globe.
New Zealand, however, managed to contain the spread of the virus, with the last community case of COVID-19 reported in February, allowing the economy to bounce back faster than most others.
At its meeting in May, the RBNZ had hinted at a hike in September 2022.
But the central bank is likely to maintain its view the world’s third-largest economy is headed for a moderate recovery as robust exports and output offset some of the weakness in consumer demand, said four sources familiar with its thinking.
The expected downgrade highlights Japan’s struggle to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, as slow vaccine rollouts and a resurgence in infections force authorities to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo just 16 days before the Olympic Games begin.
“The foundations of a recovery are in place, but the timing may be delayed somewhat,” as the curbs weigh on the economy’s expected rebound in the current quarter, one of the sources said, a view echoed by three other sources.
In most recent forecasts made in April, the BOJ expected the economy to expand 4.0% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2022, higher than a 3.6% growth projected in a Reuters poll.
At its July 15-16 policy meeting, the BOJ will likely cut the current year’s growth forecast in fresh quarterly and inflation projections, the sources said. It is also widely expected to keep monetary settings unchanged.
In the new estimates, the BOJ will likely revise up this fiscal year’s consumer inflation forecast mainly reflecting the boost from recent rises in energy costs, the sources said.
The growth projections for next fiscal year ending in March 2023 will depend much on when households begin to feel safe enough to boost spending on leisure and travel, analysts say.
The central bank currently expects the economy to expand 2.4% next fiscal year and 1.3% the following year.
The BOJ estimates that households have 20 trillion yen ($182 billion) in “forced” savings accumulated last year due to stay-at-home policies, which could be tapped when vaccines are rolled out widely.
Japan’s economy shrank an annualised 3.9% in January-March and likely barely grew in the second quarter, as the pandemic took a toll on service spending.
Analysts and policymakers had expected the economy to enjoy a solid rebound in the latter half of this fiscal year, in part hoping that steady vaccinations and removal of curbs would spur pent-up demand for leisure and travel.
The US dollar rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday to test the top of the shooting star from the previous session, suggesting that we are going to try to break above it. If we do, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign, and could send this market towards the ¥110 level again. This is probably not about the US dollar, but more or less about the Japanese yen as it is getting hammered by several different currencies right now.
USD/JPY Video 30.04.21
The 50 day EMA is currently offering support, and it does look like the market is respecting that. Furthermore, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level has offered support, and we did form a couple of hammers in that general area. That being the case, I think that the uptrend can continue, but if we were to break down below this hammers, that could open up a move down to the 200 day EMA.
Ultimately, I think that the Japanese yen is a currency that is going to be in trouble going forward, due to the lack of yield coming from the bond market. With this being the case, I do look to buy the dip in not only this pair but multiple other ones like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and even the lowly CHF/JPY pairs. With this being the case, I think that we have much further to go, and, in this pair, I suspect that ¥110 will be the next target if we can break above that shooting star.
GBP/USD last week fell 236 pips from 1.4015 to 1.3776 while overbought GBP/JPY rose 257 pips from 148.14 to 150.71.
Known since the 1930’s, the Japanese pegged GBP/JPY to UK Gold for not only economic viability but the first incursion to the western world of finance. The standard to hold GBP/JPY to the UK held throughout Bretton Woods. Upon the 1972 free float, GBP/JPY became attached permanently with high +90% correlations to GBP/USD.
All JPY cross pairs followed with high and positive correlations as AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY while USD/CAD and CAD/JPY became polar opposites as both permanently correlate negatively. USD/CHF and CHF/JPY traditionally also hold opposite correlations.
The Japanese offered not only a double trade but GBP/JPY and GBP/USD as the same exact currency pairs. The same principle holds true for EUR/JPY and EUR/USD, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY and NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. The double trade is permanent for USD/CAD and CAD/JPY.
Why JPY cross pairs remain overbought into week 6 amd not falling with counterpart currencies is the USD/JPY problem to correlations. While GBP/USD correctly correlates to GBP/JPY at +94%, GBP/JPY also not correctly correlates to USD/JPY at +83%. A further problem exists as GBP/USD correlates to USD/JPY at +46 %. All correlations are not only running positive but this situation is the exact same for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and explains why prices remain high and overbought.
Positive correlations are the result of exchange rate prices and relationships to moving averages since correlations are found within the context of averages. USD/JPY trades above vital 105.70, GBP/USD above 1.3697 and GBP/JPY above 144.80. Correlations are positive because prices trade above respective high / low averages.
Required to assist GBP/JPY to drop is GBP/USD breaks 1.3697 or USD/JPY trades below 105.70. GBP/JPY then decides to fully correlate to USD/JPY or GBP/USD. GBP/JPY in every instant follows GBP/USD as the 91 year correlation and order of currency markets.
Current GBP/JPY trades 1156 pips above GBP/USD and 2506 pips below GBP/CAD. GBP/JPY larger range from GBP/USD becomes 144.08 and 1.5564. GBP/JPY above is located the 14 year average at 155.38 and the 10 year at 148.36.
Prior to the 2016 interest rate changes by the central banks, the market order to currency pair arrangement existed as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF then GBP/CAD.
The new order is arranged as GBP/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY then GBP/CAD and seen as GBP/CHF 1.2855, GBP/USD 1.3820, GBP/JPY 149.86 or 1.4986 then GBP/CAD 1.7292. Much daylight exists for GBP/JPY to trade freely between GBP/USD and GBP/CAD yet 250 pips traded last week from a distance of 1100 and 2500 pips between exchange rates.
Why GBP/CHF and all currency pairs arranged as Other Currency / CHF dropped from contention as support is due to the uniqueness to the SNB’s interest rate system. Libor is miles from actual interest rates as first comes Saron, Call Money rates and the most vital Debt Register Claims.
JPY cross pairs overall contain downside moves from GBP/JPY at 300 pips and 200 for AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.
USD/JPY for the week is not only light years overbought but the 5 year average is located at 109.01. A good target is found at 106.65.
GBP/JPY big break lower is located at the 10 year average at 148.38. A break then GBP/JPY trades 146.00’s easily.
GBP/USD this week opens between 1.3768 and 1.3840. Below 1.3768 challenges most vital 1.3697, above 1.3840 then GBP/USD travels much higher.
GBP/CHF and GBP/CAD run good and positive correlations at +93% and +96 % for GBP/CAD. For GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD remain problems as correlations run negative at -43% and -64% for GBP/AUD.
Included are GBP/JPY moving averages from 5 day to 253 days. The averages are perfect and derived from the ECB. The first number is the day average followed by trading days then the average.
A 20 day average is actually 15 days, a 50 day average is actually 36 days. Trading day averages to factor perfectly start at the beginning of every year then the numbers increase as days trade. A 50 day average is most stable as it only trades 36 to 50 days.
A 5 day average begins Monday at 2 days, then 3 for Tuesday and Wednesday and 4 for Thursday. A full 5 day average only trades on Fridays.
5 Day 5 149.2391
10 Day 9 149.1325
20 Day 15 148.3808
50 Day 36 145.2691
100 Day 71 142.5398
200 Day 143 139.9417
253 Day 180 139.1231
As GBP/JPY trades lower then the averages drop.
Targets are not only known miles ahead but targets stack to watch trades unfold.
Current targets: 149.7549, 149.8496, 149.5086, 148.1852, 146.0887, 143.7901, 143.0356.
The ECB and most central banks factor exchange rates to 6 decimal places and 4 for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs and I follow the ECB exactly.
AUD/USD broke its long standing and much written line at 0.7821 and traded 57 pips to 0.7877. Above 0.7821, AUD/USD ranges between 0.7821 to the 10 year average at 0.8305 or 484 pips. Below 0.7821, AUD/USD trades 0.7821 to 0.7308 or 513 pips. Below 0.7821 exists 0.7605.
DXY last week maintained its 148 pip range between 89.95 to 91.43. Above 91.43 next targets 92.78 in a 135 pip range.
GBP as written in the last post maintains deep overbought status across all GBP pairs except GBP/NZD. Watch 1.9136 this week for best moves.
EUR/USD opens in fairly perfect neutrality however ranges continue to compress. Problem pair EUR/JPY and all JPY cross pairs maintain deeply overbought status for week 4. EUR/CAD, EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD open the week massive oversold. EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD will provide the best moves.
Stand clear EUR/CHF as AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF will provide better movements.
NZD/USD 0.7267 then 0.7356 Vs 0.7267 and 0.7990. NZD/CAD is overbought while NZD/JPY heading into week 4 maintains richter scale overbought status.
Overall, NZD/USD traded 200 pips from 0.7100’s to 0.7300’s for the past 2 months and provided support to GBP and AUD to allow both to move higher. Explains the divergence seen in EUR/NZD Vs GBP/NZD this week.
USD/JPY watch 104.97 and USD/CAD 1.2587 Vs 1.2826.
Overall currency markets are in the great deadlock between natural opposites EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Current USD/JPY at 105.74 trades 84 pips above its vital high/ low point at 104.89. This line is rising. EUR/USD trades around its current high /low point at 1.2039. This line moved 1 pip lower since yesterday’s ECB at 10 A.M. EST. EUR/USD and USD/JPY achieved its crowning achievement by rhe great divide to currency pairs.
USD/CAD at 1.2600’s and GBP/USD at 1.3800’s or 1200 pips informs this distance is far to wide. GBP/USD trade to 1.4000’s while USD/CAD was located at 1.2500’s or 1500 pips assisted to diminish the distance yet 1200 pips informs a big move is ahead. Normal distance is 3 to 500 pips.
For the past four weeks as written, JPY cross pairs were and continue to trade in severely overbought territory. The degree of overbought is recognized as 500 pips from AUD/USD 0.7700’s and AUD/JPY at 82.00’s and 500 pips from NZD/USD 0.7100’s to NZD/JPY 76.00’s. Normal is in the vicinity of 100 to 200 pips maximum because NZD/USD and NZD/JPY are the exact same currency pairs much the same as AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
The divide grows wider at 800 pips from GBP/USD 1.3600’s to GBP/JPY at 147.00’s and 700 pips from EUR/USD 1.2000’s to 127.00’s for EUR/JPY and normal is 100 to 200 because GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are the exact same currency pairs much the same as EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.
USD pairs EUR/NZD at 1.6700’s trades 2500 pips to GBP/NZD 1.9200’s. Normal trades around 1600 to 1800 pips and 700 pips off kilter.
The EUR/USD and USD/JPY relationship is distinguished by the massive and extreme divide between and among currency pair prices, particularly USD and overall cross pairs as the primary driver to current prices.
Today’s trade is presented as a two trade option by matching significant day trade support, resistance and levels. Short the highs and long the lows.
USD/JPY highs Vs EUR/USD Lows.
USD/JPY up target 106.43 vs EUR/USD 1.1985 lows.
USD/JPY 106.36 Vs EUR/USD 1.1998.
USD/JPY 106.29 V EUR/USD 1.2011
USD/JPY 106.16 Vs EUR/USD 1.2015
USD/JPY 106.09 Vs EUR/USD 1.2023
USD/JPY 106.03 Vs EUR/USD 1.2028.
USD/JPY 105.96 Vs EUR/USD 1.2034.
EUR/USD Highs Vs USD/JPY lows
EUR/USD 1.2107 Vs USD/JPY 105.37
EUR/USD 1.2099 Vs USD/JPY 105.44
EUR/USD 1.2091 Vs USD/JPY 105.51
EUR/USD 1.2076 Vs USD/JPY 105.58
EUR/USD 1.2068 Vs USD/JPY 105.63
EUR/USD 1.2061 Vs USD/JPY 105.71
EUR/USD 1.2053 Vs USD/JPY 105.79
EUR/USD 1.2049 Vs USD/JPY 105.87.
EUR/USD is a complete opposite pair to USD/JPY however prices never match pip for pip as the relationship runs 7.62 pips for EUR/USD Vs 6.62 for USD/JPY.As a side note all market prices especially Stock Indices are factored the exact same as a currency price. The difference is in the name and number yet its all the same.
Not many pips trade anymore as the old days of trading therefore pips and profits are maximized by multiple longs and shorts per currency pair. All information is known in advance of the trade therefore no stops, charts and whatever is needed nor applied.
Monday starts with a slight optimism on the major exchanges but it’s hard to call it a game-changer as the volatility is rather low and we can sense a holiday mood on the trading floors. Worry not, in this environment we were still able to find three interesting trading setups, which you may find very interesting.
First one is a small update about the AUDNZD, which we mentioned a few times at the beginning of the month. Back then, the price was testing crucial resistance on 1.085. Price was trying to close a day above that level since September 2019. In ourprevious analysis, we said that price closing a day above that resistance will be a legitimate buy signal. And it did! Since that time, we got 8 bullish days in a row and price is currently 180 pips higher, what a move! With this, the long-term sentiment is definitely positive but a chance for a short-term bearish correction is rising.
As for the NZD, we do have a very negative situation on the NZDJPY, where we broke the lower line of the rectangle, which gave us a proper sell signal. Now, we are testing the neckline as we do have a proper head and shoulders formation. Priceclosing a day below the neckline will be a super strong sell signal, especially when we will consider a weekly chart and the shooting start candlestick bouncing from the long-term downtrend line.
Last but not least is the EURPLN, which is on the verge of breaking crucial horizontalsupport – 4,4. In the shorter-term, the price created a rectangle pattern and Mondaystarts with an attack on its lower line. First attack seems unsuccessful and it actually opens a way up north based on the possibility of a false breakout pattern. One is certain here. We are getting closer and closer to a final decision, sharp breakout and a slide or a bounce.
The US dollar gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, but then bounced enough to reach towards the ¥107 level rather early. With that being the case, the market looks highly likely to continue seeing selling pressure above, and I think that if we do rally from here, we are likely to see the ¥107.50 level offer even more selling pressure.
The ¥107.50 level has been a magnet for price for this pair and I think at this point we are simply killing time. We look at the longer-term charts, you can see that there is a massive symmetric triangle, which is looking highly likely to lead towards a bigger move given enough time. However, right now we are not quite ready to do anything so unless you are a short-term trader, this pair is not going to offer much.
USD/JPY Video 23.06.20
That being said, the chart is not completely useless. Notice how the Japanese yen is doing and you can translate that is a secondary indicator in other pair such as the GBP/JPY pair, NZD/JPY pair, etc. Ultimately, the market could show strength or weakness in the Japanese yen that you can use in other markets. Once we finally get an impulsive move, perhaps on the weekly chart, then we can start to take a look at bigger trades. Until then, this is simply an indicator or a five-minute chart type of market that is simply back and forth with a range bound system being the most effective way to trade until conditions change.
The US dollar has cracked below the ¥107 level during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of negativity out there. After all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down about 900 points at the open, and this typically favors this pair falling due to the fact that the market starts looking for safety in the form of the Japanese yen. If we can continue the momentum, the next support level is closer to the 160 and level.
USD/JPY Video 12.06.20
On the other hand, if the market saved itself yet again, then it is likely that we will go looking towards the ¥107.50 level, and then after that go looking towards ¥108. Moving above the ¥108 level allows for the market to go looking towards ¥109, and of course followed by ¥110. I do not necessarily think that we are suddenly going to rally, but then again it is easy to say what we “should” and” should not do”, because quite frankly the markets have not been paying attention to any of that for a while.
With this being the case, I continue to use this pair more or less as a Japanese yen strength or weakness indicator, and not necessarily trade it directly. At this pair continues to fall hard, then it is possible to short other pairs that will give you a little bit more momentum like the AUD/JPY pair, NZD/JPY pair, CAD/JPY pair, and so forth. This pair is a little congested and noisy, which makes quite a bit of sense considered both currencies are thought of as “safety currency.”
The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday again, as we continue to dance around just below the ¥108 level. At this point, if we can break above the ¥108 level we could go as high as ¥109 without much trouble. To the downside, the ¥107 level should cause major problems. Ultimately, the market breaks down below there could send this market towards the ¥105 level. At this point, this is a market that is fighting back and forth to determine which one of the safety currency is the world wants to own. At this point, it is an argument that I am not willing to have and therefore I am on the sidelines. Ultimately, I think that the market will make a decision but right now this is simply a gauge to determine which one of the safety currencies you want to own against riskier currencies.
USD/JPY Video 23.04.20
For example, if the US dollar rallies against the Japanese yen, then I want to short something like the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar as it is the stronger of the two safety currencies. Alternately, if this pair falls, I would rather short the NZD/JPY pair. That being said, once we break out of this tight range, then you can play this market by itself. In the meantime, the USD/JPY pair is essentially a technical indicator as to where I will be trading other markets. I think that we are in for a continuation of the quiet trading that we have seen for the last couple of weeks.
First pair is the USDJPY, where on Wednesday, the pair broke two ultra-important mid-term resistances. First one is the horizontal one around 109.3, which is with us since May and the second one the dynamic one (orange), which can be also described as a neckline of the iH&S formation. As long as we stay above those two lines, the sentiment is definitely positive.
Second pair is the NZDJPY, where the last few days were really great for the buyers. Weakness of the JPY is just the part of the equation. Strength of the New Zealand currency is an additional bullish factor here. Apart from breaking a crucial horizontal resistance, the price broke also blue down trendline. NZDJPY closing a day above that resistance will be a legitimate buy signal.
Last one is the GBPJPY, where the price is trying to escape from the rectangle sideways trend, which started almost 7 weeks ago. Once the price will close a day above the upper orange line, we will get a proper buy signal.
This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, Director of Research and Education at Axiory
The NZD/JPY is bullish. It’s a bit slow pair with only 39 pips of the ATR(5) so patience is needed for any trades that happen.
69.00-10 is the POC zone. We could see a bounce up due to different bullish confluence which add to overall signal. Bullish order block, ascending trend line, bullish hammer off support and re-entry dot indicating oversold price on 4h. Targets are 69.50 and 69.95. Ideally the price should stay above 68.70.
The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.
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Many green pips, Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
I’ve focused on positioning, where I have looked at the weekly Commitment of Traders (CoT) futures report. Skew, which is the demand for put option volatility over call volatility, which, for me, is the best guide around sentiment – the more negative the number the greater the expected move to the downside and vice versa. And volatility, where I have looked at both realised and implied volatility, which I use for risk management and position sizing. For more instruction, do watch the webinar recent conducted as part of TraderFest –
It’s the USD that interest us most this morning, as the rate of change is moving into the top of its range, and it’s attracting just as much attention from the US President, as it is momentum-focused traders.
JPY the place to be on open
At this stage, we can key off the FX open, where the USD has weakened 0.2% against the JPY, but this is not the USD finding fault, as the greenback is up against the higher beta AUD and NZD, and finding buyers against the CNH, although todays CNY fix was far stronger than the street expected – a risk positive function.
The move into the JPY a reflection that Trump’s 15% tariffs have formally kicked in on around $110b of Chinese exports (to the US), and we’ve seen China come back placing tariffs up on $75b of US exports, and one questions if there was an element of the market expecting the implementation of tariffs to be put on ice, given the positive noises from both camps of late. It seems not.
The news flow from Hong Kong would not have gone unnoticed, and we watch to see if there is an increased response from the Chinese authorities. A Chinese manufacturing PMI print of 49.5 (vs expectations of 49.6) has also been a consideration for AUD and NZD sellers here, where we see NZDJPY and AUDJPY lower by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. It won’t surprise then the S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures have re-opened and currently sit 0.5% and 0.7% lower respectively, with Asia markets down smalls. Here, we see the ASX 200 -0.1%, Nikkei 225 -0.3%, and the Hang Seng -1%.
EURUSD moves in focus
Despite a whole barrage of ECB speakers last week, including somewhat hawkish commentary from Knot, Lautenschlager and Weidmann, throwing some uncertainty into the” kitchen sink” approach expected from the bank at the 12 September ECB meeting. The focus has been specifically on the break of 1.10 in EURUSD, and certainly, it was significant enough to garner the attention of Trump, who said the EUR is dropping “like crazy, giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage”. Let’s see how things stand on Wednesday when ECB chief economist Lane speaks in London (21:00aest), and he could really move the dial in a market which currently places a 47.7% probability that the ECB’s deposit rate is taken to -60bp and 52.3% to -50bp. The argument, like it is in many other nations, seems to be a growing call on fiscal policy as a support driver for economic fragility.
The fact Trump said the USD is the “strongest in history”, highlights the weight he puts on the trade-weighted USD, which sits at 130.66, and at an all-time high. We trade the USD index (DXY) though and whether we are looking at the feel and structure on the daily or weekly timeframe the set-up looks so bullish.
The interesting aspect is, that while we will likely to see a better feel to this week’s US ISM manufacturing print, amid robust payrolls data, on Friday we saw a huge drop off in Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, with around a third of respondents highlighting concerns around trade tariffs. If the soft data goes lower, then the Fed will try and get ahead of the curve. Let’s hear what NY Fed president Williams and Chair Powell make of the data this week, with keynote speeches due.
USD intervention grows a touch
However, with the USD strong and Trump making more noises on his disdain here. The question is, at what stage do we genuinely start to consider US Treasury intervention? The US really is the missing link to higher FX volatility, and if the US Treasury team, perhaps alongside the Fed, intervene then we can start talking currency wars with increased conviction, and this is where gold and silver go wild. And, not just because these metals are a clear hedge against negative real or nominal rates, but would stick out as a currency in its own right, with EM FX also working well in this environment.
We are not there yet, and the first port of call would be Steven Mnuchin putting intervention on the radar to scare off speculators. But for now, we look at the trigger points, and a trade-weighted USD 3-5% higher, with an increased rate of change, or, a USD index above 100,00 and eyeing a test of the January 2017 highs of 103.82 would raise FX vols. These levels would suggest we see the EUR/USD into 1.0500, with USDCNY into 7.25 and that would not go down well at the White House.
EUR/USD is tracking a few pips lower this morning, but, for now, the pair is holding below the 1.10 handle and the 1 August low of 1.1027. The technical traders are focused on the 1.0960 area, representing trend support drawn from November 2017 low, and a move through here would only encourage the market to increase short exposures.
Trading the range in the S&P 500
The futures open will offer insights, and the lack of any inspiring news flow over the weekend offers no real bullish catalysts in a market which saw the S&P 500 close unchanged, with the market, yet again finding sellers into 2940/5 zone. The 2945 to 2822 range is clear and defined, and when this breaks, it will get great attention.
US Treasury’s found small buyers in the front-end, and 10s and 30s unchanged at 1.49% and 1.96% respectively, but we expect a stronger move lower on the re-open. The 2s 10s curve remains inverted, and that suggests staying cautious, even if we are coming into a seasonally strong period for risk, with the S&P 500 historically working well in the period up to 19 September, where we tend to fade the strength into options exportation, with gamma sellers and corporate buy-back blackout a driver.
Here, I have aggregated all the moves over the past 10 years into one index, to best show the seasonality of the index. The (small) white circle where we are today.
The New Zealand Dollar tumbled across the board during the early parts of Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish shift caught markets by surprise.
With the central bank abandoning its long-standing neutral stance on interest rates and signalling a possible cut, the New Zealand Dollar is likely to weaken further. This is already being reflected in the NZDUSD which dropped a staggering 100+ pips in a matter of minutes following the RBNZ’s dovish statement. Focusing on the technical picture, the currency pair is turning bearish on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below 0.6810 higher low as of writing. Sustained weakness below this level will signal further downside with the next key point of interest at 0.6750. Alternatively, if 0.6810 proves to be reliable support, prices have the potential to rebound back towards 0.6850 before resuming the downtrend.
NZDJPY knocks on 75.00’s door
The NZDJPY collapsed roughly 110 pips following the RBNZ’s dovish shift to trade around 75.00 as of writing. Prices are looking increasingly bearish on the daily charts with a breakdown below 75.00 opening a path towards 74.30. On the other hand, a rebound from 75.00 could send the NZDJPY back to 75.40.
EURNZD pushes above 1.6550
We see weakness in the New Zealand Dollar pushing the EURNZD higher in the near term. For as long as the New Zealand Dollar continues to weaken, EURNZD bulls will remain in the driving seat moving forward. A solid daily close above the 1.6550 is seen pushing prices higher towards 1.6730.
NZDCAD sinks towards 0.9100
The NZDCAD is on route to sinking lower if bears are able to secure a solid close below 0.9100. This pair has broken the bullish channel on the daily charts with bears eyeing 0.9100 and lower. A solid daily close below this point will most likely invite a decline towards 0.9000.
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