Technical Outlook Of NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, NZD/JPY & AUD/NZD: 02.11.2017

NZD/USD

Having registered pullback moves from the May-month low, the NZDUSD couldn’t clear the 0.6930 horizontal-line and is again declining towards 0.6880 immediate support. Given the pair drops below 0.6880, the 0.6840 may offer an intermediate halt before reigniting the importance of 0.6815-20 region comprising recent low, which was also tested in May 2017. If at all the quote extend its south-run beneath 0.6815, the 0.6770 and the 0.6750 could quickly appear on the chart. Meanwhile, a clear break of 0.6930 could act as a trigger for the pair’s rise to the 0.7000 psychological mark but its following advances might be challenged by the descending TL figure of 0.7030, adjacent to the 0.7055-60 horizontal-area. In case if buyers propel prices beyond 0.7060, the 0.7100, the 0.7120 and the 0.7145-50 may become their next targets.

EUR/NZD

eurnzd

If we closely observe H4 chart of the EURNZD, the short-term “Head & Shoulders” bearish formation seems taking place in front us. The pair presently rests around the neck-line area of 1.6790-95, break of which could confirm the pattern and fetch it to 1.6520 and then to the 1.6455 while 1.6660 might offer intermediate halt during the plunge. Should sellers dominate trade sentiments after 1.6455, the October low around 1.6360 and the 1.6300 round-figure may please them. On the upside, the 1.6880, the 1.6930 and the 1.6955 are likely immediate resistances that the pair can witness if the short-covering takes place. However, pair’s sustained recovery above 1.6955 can fuel it to 1.7030, which in-turn negates the bearish formation and could signal further advances in direction to 1.7080, the 1.7130 and then to the 1.7215 resistance-levels.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

NZDJPY is another NZD pair which is heading to its short-term resistance, here it could be the 79.25-30 horizontal-line, break of which can accelerate its recent recovery to 79.80 but the six-week long descending TL, at 80.00, may limit its up-moves then after. If the pair successfully trades above 80.00, the 80.50 and the 80.85 may become good north-side numbers to watch. Alternatively, 78.45, 78.25 and the 77.85 can entertain short-term sellers ahead of pleasing them with the recent low around 77.30. Given the pair stretches the downturn below 77.30, chances of getting the 61.8% FE level of 76.70 as support can’t be denied.

AUD/NZD

audnzd

Even if the 1.1080-85 activated the AUDNZD’s U-turn, the pair’s present recovery can be challenged by an immediate descending trend-channel resistance of 1.1190.; though, break of which could help strengthen the moves towards 1.1220, the 1.1255 and then to the 1.1290 resistances. Should the pair continue trading up after 1.1290 break, 61.8% FE level of 1.1360 can flash in Bulls’ radar. In case if the pair fails to sustain latest uptick, the 1.1110, the 1.1085-80 and the channel-support of 1.1055 can be availed as nearby rests but the break of 1.1055 might drag the quote to 1.1020 and then to the 1.1000 support-marks.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Update: 11.10.2017

USD/JPY

USDJPY’s sustained trading below three week old ascending trend-channel indicates brighter chances of its additional downside with 111.80 and the 111.00 being likely nearby supports for the pair before it could avail the 110.65-70 horizontal-line as rest-point. Given the pair’s dip below 110.65, the 110.30 and the 109.80 may reappear on the chart. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance line, at 112.70, and the 113.20 could act as adjacent resistances, breaking which 61.8% FE level of 113.45 and the channel-resistance of 114.25 become important to watch. In case of the quote’s upside beyond 114.25, the 100% FE level of 114.65, followed by 115.00 round-figure, may please Bulls.

GBP/JPY

gbpjpy

With a short-term descending trend-channel confining GBPJPY’s up-moves, the pair signals the re-test of 147.40 and the 147.00 supports; however, its further downside might be curbed by 146.70-60 horizontal-area and the lower-line of channel, at 146.00 now. Should Bears refrain to respect 146.00 mark, the 145.30 and the 144.50 may flash in their radar. Meanwhile, the 148.75, comprising channel-resistance, could keep limiting the pair’s immediate upside, breaking which 149.00, the 149.45 and the 150.00 are expected levels to observe. Moreover, pair’s successful trading above 150.00 enables it to aim for 150.50 and the 151.40 resistances.

AUD/JPY

udjpy

While break of four-month old ascending TL already favors the AUDJPY sellers, the pair’s inability to extend latest pullback beyond 50-day SMA provides an extra sign that it is going south. At the moment, 87.20 and the 100-day SMA level of 86.55 are expected supports that prices may avail. Though, 86.00 is the only number that can please sellers before they have to confront the 85.65-70 region. In case if the quote manages to close above the 50-day SMA level of 87.60, it needs to surpass the 88.00 round-figure in order to justify its strength in targeting the 88.70 and the 89.20 north-side numbers. Additionally, pair’s advances beyond 89.20 could well challenge the September high of 90.30.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Even if 79.20 and the 78.70 TL figure might offer immediate stops to the NZDJPY’s downturn, the pair can’t be termed strong for short-term unless clearing the 80.30-40 horizontal-line. In doing so, the quote is likely to find 80.00 and the 50-day SMA level of 80.20 as buffers. Should the pair manage to clear 80.40 on a daily closing basis, the 80.90 and the 81.65 might become buyers’ favorite. Alternatively, pair’s breach of 78.70 TL can stretch its south-run towards 78.15-10 support-line, breaking which 77.50 and the 77.00 could be expected as supports. During the pair’s decline beneath 77.00, the 76.25 and the 75.60 may become crucial for traders.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Morning Market Update – NZD/USD

NZD/USD edged higher to 0.7228 but quickly retreated back into established range. Intraday bias stays neutral for more consolidations. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 0.7167 and bring rise resumption. Above 0.7167 the pair will turn bias back to the upside for the 0.7228 support-turned-resistance next. A break there will target 0.7247.

Looking at the bigger picture, the strong break of the 0.7167 key resistance now argues that the long term trend in NZD/USD has reversed. That is a key bottom that was formed back in 0.7148 on bullish convergence condition. Current rise from 0.7148 will target at 0.7197 next. In any case, medium term outlook will now stay bullish as long as the 0.7167 support holds.

On a strong breakout the market is looking for confirmation that the move will not simply and quickly be retraced. There has been a bit of a wobble on the pair breakout but as yet it is holding. The recent strong candle breakout was followed by a positive move towards upside. However the retracement has bounced today from the previous breakout support band 0.7167, having posted a low at 0.7148. The longer the market holds on to this band of old resistance that has turned into the new support, the more confident the bulls will be. Momentum is still strong with the Stochastics rising. The next task is for the bulls to breakout above high at 0.7197 and to continue the bull run. The four-hourly chart shows an unwinding of near term momentum to levels where the bulls have tended to support. Subsequent upside resistance is 0.7197 before 0.7228. The bulls will remain in control above 0.7167. The NZD/USD pair tested the critical support and keeps its stability above it until now, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic on the four hours’ time frame, which supports the chances of bouncing bullishly to resume the bullish trend, which its targets begin by breaching 0.7167 to open the way to head towards 0.7383.

We should note that breaking 0.7148 will stop the expected rise and push the price to test 0.71295 direct.

Expected trading range for today is between the 0.7148 support and the 0.7228 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish
For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Important JPY Pairs’ Technical Overview: 29.09.2017

USD/JPY

With a fortnight long ascending trend-channel support restricting the USDJPY’s downturn, chances of the pair’s extended recovery towards the 113.25, the 113.45 and then to the 113.70 seems quite acceptable. However, the 114.00 round-figure and the channel-resistance of 114.40 might confine its following advances, failing to which can further propel the north-run in direction to 114.65 and the 115.10 upside numbers. On the contrary, pair’s break of channel-support, at 112.30 now, can quickly fetch it to 111.40 and to the 110.70 rest-points. Moreover, during the quote’s sustained decline below 110.70, the 110.25, the 109.90 and the 109.20 could entertain the sellers.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Even if 100-day SMA triggered the NZDJPY’s U-turn during early-week, the pair couldn’t clear 81.65 resistance and is presently witnessing pullback moves to re-test the 80.75 and the 100-day SMA level of 80.45. Should the pair closes below 80.45, the 79.70 and the 79.20 can offer small barriers before the longer-term TL support of 78.45 gains importance. Meanwhile, a clear break above 81.65 may help the pair to aim for 82.00 and the 82.80 resistance-levels, surpassing which 83.60 and the 83.90 could reappear on the chart. In case if Bulls keep dominating the momentum after 83.90, it seems wise to expect the pair’s northward trajectory targeting 61.8% FE level of 85.35.

CHF/JPY

chfjpy

Following the CHFJPY’s bounce from 115.00–115.05 support-zone, the pair is heading to again confront the 116.15-20 horizontal-resistance that confined its upsides off-late. Should the pair manages to break 116.20, it can easily rise to 116.45 and then to the 61.8% FE level of 116.80 while 117.00 and the 117.70 could please Buyers afterwards. Alternatively, the 115.60 and the 115.30 may offer adjacent rests to the pair during its pullback ahead of highlighting the 115.05–115.00 area. If at all the south-run stretches below 115.00, the 114.70, the 114.25-20 and the 113.65 may act as consecutive supports for the pair.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

NZD/USD Moves In Falling Price Channel

NZDUSD stays in a falling price channel on its 4-hour chart, suggest that the pair remains in the downtrend from 0.7428. As long as the as the price is in the channel, the downside move could be expected to continue and further decline to test 0.7131 support would likely be seen in the coming days.

A breakdown below 0.7131 support would indicate that the longer term downtrend from 0.7557 has resumed, then next target would be at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from 0.6817 to 0.7557 at 0.7100, followed by the 76.4% retracement at 0.6990.

nzdusd2

Near term resistance is located at the top trend line of the price channel on the 4-hour chart now at around 0.7250, followed by 0.7300, only break above these levels could indicate that lengthier correction for the downtrend from 0.7557 is underway, then the following upside movement could take price back towards 0.7428.

For long term analysis, the NZDUSD pair might be forming a double top reversal pattern with neckline at 0.6817 level on its weekly chart. A breakdown below the neckline support could confirm the pattern, then the measured move target would be at around 0.6100 area.

nzdusd3

Technical levels

Support levels: 0.7131 (the August 31 low), 0.7100 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 0.6990 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement), 0.6817 (the May 11 low, the neckline of the double top pattern on the weekly chart).

Resistance levels: 0.7250 (the top trend line of the price channel on the 4-hour chart), 0.7300 (near term resistance), 0.7428 (the September 20 high).

Important NZD Pairs’ Technical Outlook: 13.09.2017

NZD/USD

Even if a fortnight long ascending trend-line favors the NZDUSD’s upside, the pair needs to surpass the 0.7335-40 horizontal-line in order to aim for the 0.7370 and the 0.7390 resistances. Should the quote clears 0.7390, the 0.7415 and the 0.7455-60 might hinder its follow-on recovery, breaking which prices may advance to 0.7500 and the 0.7530 numbers. In case if the pair witnesses pullback moves from present levels, which is more likely, the 0.7250 can act as immediate support ahead of reigniting the importance of 0.7220 TL figure. Given the sellers’ ability to fetch the pair below 0.7220 trend-line, the 0.7180, the 0.7150 and the 0.7130 might comeback on the chart. Moreover, pair’s sustained trading beneath 0.7130 could extend its south-run to 61.8% FE level of 0.7070.

EUR/NZD

eurnzd

Following the EURNZD’s bounce from 1.6320-30 horizontal-region, the pair might challenge the short-term descending trend-line resistance of 1.6515, breaking which 1.6555, the 1.6615 and the 1.6670 could act as barriers during its northward trajectory to re-claim the recent high around 1.6690. Given the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.6690, it could aim for 61.8% FE level of 1.6770 resistance-mark. Alternatively, the 1.6390 may offer an adjacent rest to the pair, if it reverses from current levels, ahead of dragging it towards 1.6330-20 re-test. However, break of 1.6320 could quickly trigger the pair’s drop in direction to 1.6250, 1.6190 and the 1.6150 consecutive supports.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Although NZDJPY’s break of 79.90 failed to surpass 80.30, the pair can’t be termed weak unless it again dips below the support-line. As a result, the pair continues being an aspirant to confront with 80.60 line, which in-turn could escalate its up-moves to the 81.00, the 81.40 and the 81.60 resistance-levels. Meanwhile, pair’s break of 79.90 may further pressure it to visit 79.40 and the 79.00 round-figure prior to witnessing the 78.70-65 multiple support-zone. During the course of pair’s additional downside below 78.65, recent low around 78.20 and the 78.00 round-figure could please the sellers.

NZD/CAD

nzdcad

NZDCAD’s inability to clear 0.8880 indicates brighter chances of its pullback to the 0.8800, the 0.8750 and the 0.8740 immediate supports; however, its follow-on declines below 0.8740 seems questionable, which if happens could make the quote vulnerable enough to plunge towards 61.8% FE level of 0.8660. On the upside, pair’s break of 0.8880 isn’t a guaranteed trigger for its advances as a month-old downward slanting trend-line, at 0.8900 now, could provide a tough resistance; hence, clearance of that might enable the buyers to look for the 0.8940, the 0.8980 and the 0.9000 resistances. Should the pair successfully conquer the 0.9000 mark, the 0.9055 and the 0.9155 might entertain the traders.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

Morning Market Update – NZD/USD

NZD/USD’s rally is still in progress and edges higher to 0.7277. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. A firm break of 0.7235 resistance will confirm resumption of a whole rebound from 0.7205 bottom. In such a case, NZD/USD would target a projection of 0.7277 to 0.7286 next. On the downside, the 0.72350 minor support will turn the intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as the 0.7235 support holds.

Consider the bigger picture, current development suggests that the rebound from 0.7205 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to go even further to 0.7286. A break of the 0.7235 resistance just confirms completion of the rebound. Otherwise, a further rise is now in favor.

A huge accelerating bull run has seen the market burst through the key high of 0.7235 to now see what looks to be a huge breakout above a high resistance. The market has been limited by the resistance band 0.7235 on numerous occasions in the past sessions, but the weakness of the dollar has driven a breakout. Chasing the Kiwi higher here, however, would be a move filled with significant risk. Staying with the bull run may be profitable in the very near term, however if profit taking takes a hit, it could be a sharp reversal, so watch out for exhaustion signals. It is also notable that the entirety of change is clear in current session. The bulls were looking tired before the sharp gains of today, but again the move would now be a corrective signal. Also this would now be a corrective signal that a closing level back inside the support area would now be a profit taking signal. The four hourly chart support around the upside move.

The NZD/USD pair fluctuates around the support area that its signs appear, waiting to confirm breaching this level located at 0.7235 to activate the positive effect of the mentioned pattern followed by rallying towards achieving positive targets that reach to 0.7277 followed by 0.7286 on the short term basis.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50, noting that breaking above will push the price to extend its bullish correction and head towards 0.7277 and might extend to 0.7286 before any new attempt to rise.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.7224 support and 0.7286 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish
For more detailed analysis from the author, please visit NoaFX.

Important NZD Pairs’ Technical Update: 02.08.2017

NZD/USD

Following its break of 0.7455 horizontal-line, the NZDUSD now rests around a month-old upward slanting TL support of 0.7420, break of which can quickly fetch the quote to 0.7390 and then to the 0.7360 support-levels. Should there be additional downside by the pair after clearing 0.7360, the 0.7300, the 0.7275 and the 0.7240 are likely stops that it can avail before meeting the 0.7200 round-figure. In case if the TL manages to trigger the pair’s pullback, the 0.7455 can act as immediate resistance that prices need to surpass prior to confronting the 0.7490 and descending trend-line, at 0.7515. Given the pair’s ability to rise beyond 0.7515, it can challenge the July high of 0.7560 and aim for 61.8% FE level of 0.7600.

EUR/NZD

eurnzd

Unlike NZDUSD, which is struggling with support-line, the EURNZD already cleared a ten-week old horizontal-line and is running towards 1.6000 psychological magnet. However, the 1.6015-20 might limit its following advances, failing to which can accelerate the pair’s recovery to 1.6150 and then to the May month high around 1.6235. Meanwhile, 1.5890 – 1.5900 horizontal-line can restrict the pair’s nearby downside, breaking which could shift sellers’ attention to 1.5820 and to the 1.5780 supports.  During the pair’s additional south-run following 1.5780, the 1.5720 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.5590 should be watched carefully, which if not respected can extend its downward trajectory to 1.5480 and ascending trend-line support of 1.5420.

GBP/NZD

gbpnzd

GBPNZD is another pair which stands strong against the NZD, like EURNZD; though, 1.7865-75 resistance-confluence, comprising two-month old descending trend-line and a horizontal-line, might limit its additional up-moves. If at all the pair successfully clears 1.7875, it can easily climb up to 1.7900 and the 1.7950-55 resistances ahead of aiming the 1.8000 psychological-mark. On the downside, 1.7750 seems at hands reach on the pair’s U-turn, passing which can drag it to 1.7700 and the 1.7650-45 rest-points. In case of the pair’s sustained downtrend after 1.7645, the 1.7550 and the 1.7490 should comeback on the chart.

NZD/JPY

nzdjpy

Break of six-week old ascending trend-line signals brighter chances for the NZDJPY’s dip to 81.70-65 horizontal-line; however, overbought RSI might limit the pair’s additional declines, which if not respected could attract sellers towards 81.30 and the 81.00 supports. During the pair’s further downside after 81.00, the 80.20 and the 80.00 seem to appear on Bears’ radar. Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance line of 82.60 and the 83.00 round-figure can entertain counter-trend traders before challenging them with 83.15-20 resistance-region. Given the buyers’ dominance remain intact after 83.20, the July high, around 83.90 holds door to accelerate the pair’s upward trajectory towards 61.8% FE level of 84.95 – 85.00 zone.

Cheers and Safe Trading,
Anil Panchal

NZ Dollar Driven Down by Employment Data

The New Zealand dollar fell today, dragged down by underwhelming employment data. The currency was in a retreat for four consecutive sessions versus the euro and for five against the Japanese yen.

New Zealand employment dropped 0.2% in the June quarter of this year from the previous three months, whereas analysts had expected a substantial increase by 0.7%. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.9% to 4.8%, in line with expectations. The Labor Cost Index demonstrated the same 0.4% growth as in the previous quarter, while economists had hoped it would accelerate to 0.5%.

NZD/USD declined from 0.7465 to 0.7420 as of 12:45 GMT today. NZD/JPY went down from 82.37 to 82.20 intraday (touching the lowest since two weeks) before trading at 82.23.

This post was originally published by EarnForex

What to trade after the FOMC? Gold, NZD/JPY and USD/CNH

FOMC was perceived dovish by traders worldwide, that is why we do have a come back to the main trends, so weaker dollar, stronger EM, higher stocks and commodities.

Gold climbed back above the 1258 USD/oz resistance. Currently that will be the closest support. That breakout creates a nice buying opportunity with the desired – high risk to reward ratio. Potential target for this movement lays slightly below the 1300 USD/oz

NZDJPY is a good one for the long-term position carry traders. Once the weekly candle will close above the neck line, we will have a great buying opportunity here. Huge inverse head and shoulder pattern has chances to lift the price hundreds of pips higher, additionally giving you positive swaps.

USDCNH – this one is slightly against the weak dollar trend. Here, the buy signal emerges. The price is bouncing of the long-term support and creates a hammer on a daily chart. In addition to that we are in a wedge formation, which promotes an upswing. All that together increases the chances for a bullish movement.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis