- Bitcoin (BTC) will need a bullish Sunday session to record a third consecutive weekly rise.
- While market reaction towards US economic indicators and sentiment towards the Fed influence, network news updates were also key drivers.
- The shift in sentiment towards the US economy was evident in the technical indicators for BTC, CHZ, FLOW, OP, and YFI.
For the week ending August 7, the total crypto market cap is on target for a fifth consecutive weekly rise. The current upswing saw the crypto market end a three-month losing streak in July.
Bearish sentiment early in the week saw the market cap fall to a low of $1,017 billion. Investor fears of a US economic recession weighed on riskier assets ahead of the key US stats of the week.
The ‘dovish’ 75-basis point Fed rate hike and the US economic contraction in the second quarter had delivered support. However, the prospects of a US economic recession led to a six-day losing streak.
Impressive US nonfarm payroll figures changed the mood going into the weekend. In July, nonfarm payrolls surged by 528k, beating a 250k forecast. The NFP figures and better-than-expected service sector PMI numbers eased recession fears. However, bets of a 75-basis point rate hike increased.
Following the best monthly showing since 2020, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 2.15%. The upside was modest, with geopolitics and sentiment towards the Fed limiting the upside.
The correlation between the NASDAQ 100 and the crypto market remained firmly in place, as evidenced below.
Recent crypto network news updates have put several coins back in the spotlight. While Ethereum (ETH) Merge updates remained the key focal point, other updates have highlighted a pickup in activity across the digital asset space.
In addition to further network updates, the US economic calendar will continue to provide direction. On Wednesday, US consumer price inflation numbers will be the key stats of the week. Following better-than-expected US nonfarm payroll numbers, another spike in inflation could fuel bets of a one percentage point rate hike, crypto market negative.
We expect the NASDAQ 100 to continue to drive appetite for BTC and the broader market. However, CHZ, FLOW, OP, and YFI could decouple from BTC and the NASDAQ 100.
This week, Monday through Sunday morning, bitcoin (BTC) was down 1.62% to $22,931. BTC struck a Wednesday high of $23,616 before falling to a Thursday low of $22,418. On Friday, US economic indicators delivered the single upswing of the week. However, BTC failed to revisit the $24,000 handle.
BTC movements reflected the market reaction to the US economic indicators and sentiment towards Fed monetary policy.
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reflected investor caution, falling from 42/100 on July 30 to 30/100 on Sunday morning.
At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.11% to $22,931.
Looking at the trends, a BTC move through the July high of $24,619 to $25,000 would support a run at the June high of $31,956. From $31,956, a move through $35,000 would bring the May high of $40,004.
However, a fall back to sub-$20,000 would give the bears a look at the current year low of $17,601,
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,828.
The 50-day narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed BTC signals.
A 50-day EMA widening from the 100-day EMA would support a break out from the July high of $24,619, with a return to $25,000 to give BTC a look at $30,000.
However, BTC would need to hold above the 100-day EMA to avoid the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,600, and a return to sub-$20,000.
This week, Monday through Sunday morning, Chiliz (CHZ) was up 18.00% to $0.1442.
A bullish start to the week saw CHZ surge from a low of $0.1214 to a Monday high of $0.1631 before easing back.
Network news updates delivered the Monday breakout session. News of Socios.com investing $100 million to support Barcelona FC’s Web3 goals was the key. The Scoville testnet launch for Chiliz Chain 2.0 added further support.
With the European football season underway, investor interest in CHZ could grow in the coming weeks.
At the time of writing, CHZ was down 1.37% to $.1442.
Looking at the trends, a move through this week’s high of $0.1631 would support a run at the May high of $0.1974. From there, CHZ would have a free run at the March high of $0.3312 to bring $0.40 into view.
A fall back to sub-$0.1250 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.10 and the current-year low of $0.0798.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. CHZ sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.1377.
The 50-day pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish CHZ price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after testing support at the 50-day EMA on July 27.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.1288, and the current week’s low ($0.1214) into play.
This week, Monday through Sunday, Flow (FLOW) was up 32.12% to $2.5500.
A bearish start to the week saw FLOW fall to a Tuesday week low of $1.81. However, network news updates drove FLOW to a Thursday high of $3.77 before easing back.
News of Meta announcing the introduction of digital collectibles to showcase NFTs on Instagram delivered support.
At the time of writing, FLOW was down 0.78% to $2.5500.
Looking at the trends, a move through this week’s high of $3.77 would support a run at the May high of $5.21. From $5.21, FLOW would have a free run at the April high of $8.17 to bring $10.00, last visited in December 2021.
A fall to sub-$2.00 would bring the July low of $1.37 and the June 18 current year low of $1.16 into view.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal on Sunday. FLOW sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $2.2599.
The 50-day pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, both bullish FLOW price signals.
Avoiding a fall through the 50-day EMA would continue to support the upward trend formed after the August 4 breakout from the 50-day EMA.
However, a fall through the 50-day EMA could bring the 100-day EMA, currently at $2.0585, and sub-$2.00 into view. An extended sell-off would target the 200-day EMA, currently at $1.9297, and the current August low of $1.81.
This week, Monday through Sunday morning, Optimism (OP) was up 22.47% to $1.9400.
A bearish start to the week saw OP fall to a Tuesday low of $1.362 before surging to a Thursday high of $2.238.
“The program will run for 90 days with a distribution of 5M OP to the Aave Protocol’s Optimism Market users.”
The latest network update followed news of Curve Finance submitting a governance proposal on Optimism for 100 million OP tokens for distribution on the Curve Pool that delivered support. In the previous week, the platform also released Drippie, a new transaction system, which added further support.
At the time of writing, OP was up 2.05% to $1.9400.
Looking at the trends, a return to $2.00 would support a breakout from the week high of $2.238 to target $3.00. However, market sentiment across the broader crypto market will need to remain bullish for OP to break down resistance at $2.50.
A fall back to sub-$1.70 would give the bears a look at sub-$1.50 and the August low of $1.362.
(There is no EMA technical analysis due to the available price points).
This week, yearn.finance (YFI) is up a modest 5.51% to $11,472. YFI surged by 68% in the final week of July.
A mixed start to the week saw YFI give up Monday gains, falling to a Wednesday low of $10,382. Supported by the broader crypto market and US economic indicators, YFI struck a Friday high of $12,323 before easing back.
The planned August launch of veYFI delivered support.
At the time of writing, YFI was down 2.08% to $10,873
Looking at the trends, a breakout from the July high of $14,239 would give YFI a free run at the May high of $18,565. However, YFI needs to return to the $20,000 handle to avoid a reversal. A pullback to sub-$10,000 would see YFI face intense selling pressure.
Looking at the 4-hourly chart and the EMAs, the signal was bullish. YFI steered clear of the 50-day EMA, currently at $10,786.
The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA breaking out from the 200-day EMA, both positive YFI indicators.
A further widening of the 50-day EMA from the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from the July high of $14,239 to target the May high of $18,565. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$10,000 and the 100-day EMA, currently at $9,692, into view.