Daily Gold News: Thursday, May 19 – Gold Price Extends Consolidation

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract lost 0.16% on Wednesday, May 18, as it continued to fluctuate following the recent declines. On Monday the market reached new local low of $1,785.00, but it closed above the $1,800 level. Gold retraced almost all of the February-March rally on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. It went back to the $1,800 level where it’s been fluctuating for months in 2021. This morning yellow metal is trading closer to the recent local highs, still within a short-term consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.7% higher this morning, as it is bouncing from the $1,800 price level. It is still trading within a short-term consolidation following a month-long decline. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.1% higher, platinum is 0.4% higher and palladium is 0.8% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are higher this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Housing Starts release has been slightly lower than expected at 1.72M, and the Building Permits release has been slightly higher than expected at 1.82M. Today we will get the Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales and CB Leading Index releases.

The markets will still continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Thursday, May 19

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m

Friday, May 20

  • All Day, Australia – Parliamentary Elections

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, May 18 – Gold Price Remains Close to $1,800

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.27% on Tuesday, May 17, as it retraced some of the recent decline. On Monday the market reached the new local low of $1,785.00, but it closed above the $1,800 level. Gold retraced almost all of the February-March rally on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. It went back to the $1,800 level where it’s been fluctuating for months in 2021. This morning yellow metal is trading within a short-term consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.2% lower this morning, as it remains close to the $1,800 price level. It is trading within a short-term consolidation following a month-long decline. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.3% lower, platinum is 1.0% higher and palladium is 0.4% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are slightly lower this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Retail Sales release has been slightly lower than expected at +0.9% (expected +1.0% m/m). Today we will get the Housing Starts, Building Permits releases at 8:30 a.m.

The markets will still continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Wednesday, May 18

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Housing Starts, Building Permits
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m/m
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • Tentative, Eurozone – ECB Financial Stability Review

Thursday, May 19

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported.

The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Want To Know Where Gold Prices Are Heading Next? Then Keep An Eye On Oil

Gold, Oil and Inflation

If you want to know where Gold prices are heading next, then just take a look at the bullish trend in Oil prices.

Oil prices started the week on a tear, surging to their highest level since March – in anticipation of higher demand as China – the world’s largest importer of crude began easing coronavirus-related restrictions.

Shanghai, China’s largest city with 26 million people, which has been under lockdown for more than six weeks – announced plans to start reopening on Monday and gradually return to more normal life from June 1.

Expectations are now running high, that the Oil market may see an identical V-shape recovery in demand as seen in 2020 when China ended lockdown. That event triggered an historic bull run taking Oil prices from sub $40 a barrel in April 2020 to a decade high of almost $140 a barrel in April 2022. That’s a whopping gain of more than 450%, in the last two years.

The timing of Shanghai’s reopening comes at a pivotal moment when global Oil inventories are at the lowest since 1987, OPEC+ and U.S shale producers continue to restrain output increases due to rising drilling costs and sanctions threaten to disrupt Russia’s Oil production and exports.

Historically, surging Oil prices usually feed into inflation expectations and boost demand for assets with inflation-hedging capabilities, such as the Precious Metals.

According to a long list of leading Wall Street banks – Oil prices could very easily be trading back above $130 a barrel by summer and then surge towards $150. Once that happens, Gold prices won’t be too far behind.

Gold Price Forecast Video for 18.05.22

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Tuesday, May 17 – Gold Bounces From the $1,800 Level

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.32% on Monday, May 16, as it fluctuated following its recent declines. The market reached the new local low of $1,785.00, but it closed above the $1,800 level again. Gold retraced almost all of the February-March rally on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. It went back to the $1,800 level where it’s been fluctuating for months in 2021. This morning yellow metal is trading higher following U.S. dollar weakness, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.2% higher this morning after bouncing from the $1,800 price level. It is trading along its recent daily highs. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.5% higher, platinum is 1.1% higher and palladium is 0.1% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are higher this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Empire State Manufacturing Index release has been worse than expected at -11.6 (exp. 15.3). Today we will get the important Retail Sales release at 8:30 a.m., Industrial Production release at 8:15 a.m. and the Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 2:00 p.m., among others.

The markets will still continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Tuesday, May 17

  • 8:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 1:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

Wednesday, May 18

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Housing Starts, Building Permits
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m/m
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • Tentative, Eurozone – ECB Financial Stability Review

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Gold ticks up as dip in U.S. yields loosens dollar’s grip

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

(Reuters) – Gold rose slightly on Monday as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields offset headwinds from a relatively firm dollar, which, along with looming interest rate hikes, earlier pushed bullion to a more than three-and-a-half-month low.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,817.12 per ounce by 1:52 p.m. ET (1752 GMT), after earlier hitting its lowest since Jan. 31 at $1,786.60. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3% at $1,814.

Gold’s slight bounce was attributable to a dip in Treasury yields and a small pullback in the dollar, RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn said, adding that the overall trend for the dollar was “still high as the Fed is being aggressive with its rate hikes”. [US/]

“All things considered, gold is holding up, it should be significantly lower… it will find support slightly below the $1,800 level. Also, there is enormous demand for physical gold and silver.” [GOL/AS]

The dollar inched lower, but still held near a two-decade peak, making gold expensive for overseas buyers. [USD/]

Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates to tame rising prices curb appetite for bullion, which pays no interest.

“Many still regard gold as being significantly undervalued, and would be even more wiling to buy the metal now that prices have weakened,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index, said.

Spot silver gained 2.2% to $21.53 per ounce, after hitting its lowest since July 2020 on Friday.

Silver has found itself caught up in the broader sell-off in equities and gold, being punished for being an industrial metal at a time when growth forecasts are being trimmed, Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said.

Platinum rose 0.2% to $940.28, while palladium rose 3.9% to $2,019.70.

Autocatalyst maker Johnson Matthey said a surplus in the platinum market should shrink this year and the palladium markets are likely to move back into deficit.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Shailesh Kuber)

Daily Gold News: Monday, May 16 – Gold Price is at $1,800 Again

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract lost 0.90% on Friday, May 13, following its Thursday’s decline of 1.6%, as it further extended its downtrend. The market retraced almost all of the February-March rally and broke below the $1,800 level on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. Gold price went back to the $1,800 where it’s been fluctuating for months in 2021. This morning yellow metal is trading along its Friday’s closing price after bouncing from the new local low, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.3% lower this morning, as it is trading along the $1,800 price level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.1% higher, platinum is 0.7% lower and palladium is 1.1% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Friday’s Michigan Sentiment release has been worse than expected at 59.1 vs. the expectations of 64.1. Today we will get the Empire State Manufacturing Index release at 8:30 a.m. Investors will be waiting for tomorrow’s Retail Sales release and the important Fed Chair Powell speech.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Monday, May 16

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – EU Economic Forecasts
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 8:55 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – TIC Long-Term Purchases
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tuesday, May 17

  • 8:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 1:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 2:30 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

A Big Bounce Back In Commodity Prices Is Coming – Are You Ready?

Commodity Markets Fundamental Analysis

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its highly anticipated May meeting with a 50-basis point increase – the biggest and most aggressive interest rate hike in 22 years in what can only be described as a “belated response” to the fastest rise in inflation seen in over 41-years.

There’s no denying it, that the Fed is caught in a box of its own making because it didn’t move quickly enough on raising rates last year. Now it has to be seen to move aggressively, which ultimately means, Stagflation is now a major risk to the economy, or worst still a recession.

Historically, the Federal Reserve has never been right on monetary policy and has a proven track record of setting the economy up for an even bigger crisis.

Only time will tell if the Fed is right, or on the verge of yet another a major policy error.

However, one thing we do know for certain is that global equity markets tend to get crushed once the Fed begins raising rates. This inversely presents huge bullish tailwinds for the entire commodities sector ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities – as they are viewed as one of the most reliable hedges against economic risk, inflation and recession.

Looking ahead, more big moves could be on the horizon amid heighten concerns that the Fed won’t be able to deliver a soft economic landing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday and is expected to confirm that the Fed will stick with a half-point interest rate hike in June, July and possibly September.

Elsewhere, Shanghai, which has been under lockdown for more than six weeks will start to reopen on Monday and gradually return to more normal life from June 1.

Expectations running high, that the Oil market may see an identical V-shape recovery in demand as seen in 2020 when China ended lockdown. That event triggered an historic bull run taking Oil prices from sub $40 a barrel in April 2020 to a decade high of $130 a barrel in April 2022 – racking up a phenomenal gain of more than 425%.

Whichever way you look at it, the case for commodities in a well-diversified portfolio has never been more obvious than it is right now!

Week Ahead: Commodity Report Video for 16 – 20 May 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Russia risks speed up automakers’ switch from palladium to platinum, WPIC says

LONDON (Reuters) – Automakers are accelerating efforts to use less palladium and more platinum due to worries over palladium supply from Russia, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Monday, predicting a large surplus in the platinum market this year.

Automakers were already shifting to platinum, which is cheaper than palladium, to save money, but a faster transition would increase platinum demand and could lift prices while having the opposite effect on palladium.

Russia accounts for around 25-30% of the world’s supply of palladium and around 8-10% of its platinum.

There is no sign that Russian exports have been curtailed by sanctions on the country since it sent troops into Ukraine in February but with the war dragging on, more companies may boycott Russian metal and governments could impose restrictions.

“The substitution effort has gone up hugely,” said Trevor Raymond, the WPIC’s head of research. “The amount of savings an automaker can make are massive. What’s been added on top of that is concerns about availability (of palladium).”

At around $950 an ounce, platinum costs around half as much as palladium. Automakers use around 2.5-3 million ounces of platinum each year and around 8.5 million ounces of palladium.

In its latest quarterly report, the WPIC said the roughly 8 million ounce a year platinum market would be oversupplied by 627,000 ounces this year following a surplus of 1.13 million ounces in 2021.

In March, it forecast a surplus for 2022 of 652,000 ounces.

During the January-March quarter, platinum demand fell 26%year-on-year and supply fell 13%, leaving the market oversupplied by 167,000 ounces, the WPIC said.

It said that for the full year, supply would be 5% less than in 2021 and demand would be 2% greater, with auto industry demand rising 16% due to an increase in light duty vehicle production, higher loadings per vehicle to meet tighter emissions regulation and substitution from palladium.

Following are supply and demand numbers and comparisons.

ANNUAL PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

2021 2022f 2022f/2021

% change

SUPPLY

Refined Production 6,297 5,872 -7%

Producer Inventory +/- -93 0 -100%

Recycling 1,953 1,909 -2%

TOTAL SUPPLY 8,156 7,781 -5%

DEMAND

Automotive 2,643 3,055 16%

Jewellery 1,923 1,886 -2%

Industrial 2,508 2,109 -16%

– of which chemical 688 613 -11%

– Petroleum 172 193 12%

– Electrical 135 127 -6%

– Glass 715 331 -54%

– Medical 244 257 5%

– Other 555 588 6%

Investment -45 104 -331%

– Bars, Coins 332 254 -23%

– ETF Holdings -238 -50 -79%

– Exchange Stocks -139 -100 -28%

TOTAL DEMAND 7,029 7,155 2%

MARKET BALANCE 1,128 627 -44%

Above Ground Stocks 3,752 4,379 17%

QUARTERLY PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

Q1 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q1/Q1 %

change

SUPPLY

Refined Production 1,465 1,695 1,279 -13%

Producer Inventory +/- -29 -39 0 -100%

Recycling 518 453 415 -20%

TOTAL SUPPLY 1,953 2,109 1,695 -13%

DEMAND

Automotive 724 680 725 0%

Jewellery 479 499 437 -9%

Industrial 707 624 533 -25%

– of which chemical 119 200 111 -7%

– Petroleum 37 57 44 21%

– Electrical 33 32 30 -9%

– Glass 318 121 138 -56%

– Medical 57 67 65 15%

– Other 143 147 144 0%

Investment 159 -108 -167 -205%

– Bars, Coins 21 95 60 192%

– ETF Holdings 105 -155 -169 -261%

– Exchange Stocks 33 -48 -58 -273%

TOTAL DEMAND 2,069 1,695 1,528 -26%

MARKET BALANCE -116 413 167 -244%

* Source: World Platinum Investment Council, Platinum Quarterly Q1 2022

(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Gold set for fourth weekly loss on dollar strength, Fed hike bets

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

(Reuters) – Gold fell more than 1% on Friday and is set for its fourth straight weekly decline, as the dollar’s strong run with more aggressive U.S. interest rates on the horizon sapped appetite for bullion.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,808.89 per ounce by 01:54 p.m. EDT (1754 GMT), after hitting its lowest since Feb. 4 at $1,798.86. It has declined nearly 4% this week.

U.S. gold futures settled down 0.9% at $1,808.20.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the battle to control inflation would “include some pain”, as the impact of higher interest rates is felt.

“Gold is being weighed down as the Fed has been committed to raise interest rates at a fast pace and in addition, the dollar has been extremely strong,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

“Going forward, the inflation numbers are what the market will closely watch.”

The dollar index was set for a sixth consecutive weekly gain, hovering near a 20-year high. [USD/]

Although seen as an inflation hedge, bullion yields no interest and is sensitive to rising U.S. short-term interest rates and bond yields.

“A rebound in global stock markets amid less risk aversion in the marketplace to end the trading week is also a negative for the safe-haven metals,” said Kitco senior analyst Jim Wycoff in a note.

Growth stocks led a rebound in Wall Street’s main indexes. [.N] [MKTS/GLOB]

Spot silver rose 1.6% to $20.98 per ounce, but has fallen about 6% this week, the most since late January.

Platinum fell 0.8% to $936.51. Palladium gained 1.5% to $1,936.83, after falling over 8% on Thursday.

“Overwhelming concerns about supply disruptions in Russia take precedence in palladium market and there is active buying into dips as prices have come down dramatically,” added Meger.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Shailesh Kuber)

Daily Gold News: Friday, May 13 – Gold Falls to New Lows

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract lost 1.57% on Thursday, May 12, following its Wednesday’s gain of 0.7%, as it extended the downtrend. It retraced almost all of the February-March rally and got back closer to the $1,800 level on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. This morning yellow metal is trading the lowest since mid-February and it is trading below the $1,825 level, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.2% lower this morning, as it is trading within a relatively narrow trading range. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.8% higher, platinum is 1.4% higher and palladium is 1.7% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Producer Price Index release has been as expected at +0.5% m/m. Today we will get the Michigan Sentiment release, among others.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for today.

Friday, May 13

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Import Prices m/m
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
  • 12:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Will A Fed Policy Mistake Lead To Higher Commodity Prices In 2022?

Federal Reserve Rate Hike and Recession

This month, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its highly anticipated May meeting with a 50-basis point increase – the biggest and most aggressive interest rate hike in 22 years in what can only be described as a “belated response” to the fastest rise in inflation seen in over 41-years.

The Federal Reserve, which finds itself caught between a rock and a hard place, got even more bad news on Wednesday: Inflation is still rapidly accelerating in many places with April’s CPI data showing the biggest core increase since 1982.

11 of the last 14 Fed tightening cycles since World War II have been followed by a recession within the next 12 months.

Will the Fed Get it Right This Time?

Only time will tell, however one thing we do know for certain is that Equity markets tend to get crushed once the Fed begins raising rates.

The S&P 500 is now down nearly 22% year to date, and the Nasdaq is faring even worse, plummeting over 29% this year. This inversely presents huge bullish tailwinds for the entire commodities sector ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities – as they are viewed as one of the most reliable hedges against economic risk, inflation and recession.

Commodity Prices Forecast

After tallying up astronomical double to triple digit gains within the first quarter of 2022 – commodity prices are likely to undergo a much-needed and healthy correction in the short-term as trader’s book profits. Overall, it goes without saying that the fundamental backdrop for entire Commodities sector remains extremely bullish in the long-term.

Commodity Report Video for May 13, 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar rally accelerates slide in metals

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

(Reuters) – Gold and other precious metals dropped on Thursday, with palladium shedding more than 8%, as investors flocked to the dollar driven by bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will stick to aggressive rate hikes.

Spot gold fell 1.6% to $1,823.14 per ounce by 01:51 p.m. EDT (1751 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled down 1.6% at $1,824.60.

“Dollar is rallying as things potentially look negative in the U.S., which is hurting gold. Also, the market is realising the likelihood of seeing pretty aggressive interest rate increases,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Rival safe-haven dollar climbed to fresh 20-year highs – making gold less appealing for other currency holders driven by concerns tighter monetary policies to tame surging inflation will hurt the global economy.

Although it is considered a hedge against inflation and a safe bet during economic and political turmoil, gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“However, gold is holding relatively better when compared to the industrial precious metals,” the demand for which could be hurt in a recession environment, Melek added.

Declines in gold were, however, capped by a slide in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which hit the lowest level in two weeks.

Spot silver fell 4.3% to $20.63 per ounce – it hit its lowest since July 2020 earlier in the session.

“Silver is falling faster than gold, that’s a bearish sign for the whole complex. With the ongoing lockdowns in China, industrial metals are struggling and US institutional investor who’s bailing out a gold ETF by extension bails out of silver as well,” independent analyst Ross Norman said.

Palladium slid 7% to $1,892.69, having earlier slid as much as 8.2% to its lowest since January at 1,867.68.

Platinum dropped 5.2% to $940.51.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Shailesh Kuber)

Nornickel is first Russian firm to get OK to keep listing abroad

(Reuters) – Metals giant Nornickel has become the first Russian company to be granted permission by a government commission to keep its listing abroad – for one year for now.

Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of palladium and refined nickel, and other large Russia-registered firms have sought government approval to keep their depositary receipts traded on foreign bourses.

The approval has been needed since President Vladimir Putin in April signed a bill requiring Russian companies to delist their depositary receipts abroad in a bid to reduce foreigners’ control over these firms.

Nornickel said on Thursday a government commission had approved its request to maintain the circulation of its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) outside Russia until April 28, 2023.

The permission would give the metals producer time to assess available opportunities and steps to support its long-term investment attractiveness, it added.

“It is important that a precedent occurred for a Russian company to be allowed to continue trading depositary receipts (DR) abroad. In other words, it is likely that other companies will be able to retain the DR programme,” analysts at BCS said in a note.

Maintaining a foreign listing could indirectly mean that the company will continue to adhere to best corporate governance and disclosure practices. The decision is also positive for the company’s interaction with Western investors in the long term, BCS added.

Russian steel producers NLMK and MMK, gas producer Novatek, and firms like Sistema, Magnit and En+ have said that they have also applied for similar permission. The result of their applications is yet to be disclosed.

A request by Russian gas giant Gazprom was rejected and the company expects delisting of its depositary receipts on May 31.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Mark Potter and Bernadette Baum)

Daily Gold News: Thursday, May 12 – Gold Fluctuates Along the $1,950 Price Level

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.69% on Wednesday, May 11, as it continued to fluctuate following its recent decline. Yesterday gold was the lowest since mid-February. It retraced almost all of the February-March rally and got back closer to the $1,800 level on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. This morning the yellow metal is trading sideways, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.3% lower this morning, as it is still trading along the $1,850 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 2.7% lower, platinum is 2.4% lower and palladium is 3.4% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are lower this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s important Consumer Price Index release has been higher than expected at +0.3% vs. +0.2% m/m. Today we will get the Producer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m., among others.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Thursday, May 12

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims
  • 1:01 p.m. U.S. – 30-y Bond Auction
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Financial Stability Report

Friday, May 13

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Import Prices m/m
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
  • 12:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Gold bounces as dollar uptick halts after U.S. inflation data

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

(Reuters) – Gold resumed its climb on Wednesday after a knee-jerk retreat tied to the release of U.S. inflation data, as the dollar slipped with investors latching on to a slight cooling of consumer prices.

Spot gold was up 0.8% at $1,852.65 per ounce by 02:05 p.m. EDT (1814 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled up 0.7% at$1,853.70.

U.S. consumer price growth slowed in April as gasoline prices eased off record highs, suggesting inflation has probably peaked, though it is likely to stay hot for a while and keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to cool demand.

Helping gold advance, the dollar index, which initially strengthened on the CPI data, edged down 0.1%.

“The market saw the print and went ‘SELL, SELL, SELL.’ But gold has since bounced back with the thinking that the data is higher than expected, but not horrifying,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York.

“The Fed won’t get more hawkish with this report, but definitely won’t ease off either.”

U.S. central bank officials on Tuesday fortified their arguments for the swiftest series of rate hikes since at least the 1990s to combat inflation.

“Overall, gold hasn’t been a bad investment. It’s been holding a fairly tight range, I’d much rather own gold than Nasdaq, or Bitcoin,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

Although gold is considered a safe haven from inflation, rising U.S. interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while boosting the dollar, the currency in which gold is priced.

“We expect (gold) prices to revert to taking cue from real yields as the year unfolds, encountering downside pressure in H2 but remaining elevated relative to historical levels,” said Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered.

Spot silver gained 1.6% to $21.58 per ounce, platinum climbed 3.7% to $999.33, while palladium eased 1% to $2,044.17.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Kirsten Donovan)

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, May 11 – Gold Price Bounces From New Low

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract lost 0.95% on Tuesday, May 10, as it extended its Monday’s decline of 1.3%. Gold was the lowest since mid-February yesterday. It retraced almost all of the February-March rally and got back closer to the $1,800 level on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. This morning the yellow metal is bouncing from the new local low, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.7% higher this morning, as it is trading along the $1,850 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 2.6% higher, platinum is 2.8% higher and palladium is 1.2% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are higher this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Today at 8:30 a.m. we will get the important Consumer Price Index release. It is expected at +0.2% m/m.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Wednesday, May 11

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
  • 1:01 p.m. U.S. – 10-y Bond Auction
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Federal Budget Balance
  • All Day – OPEC Meetings

Thursday, May 12

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims
  • 1:01 p.m. U.S. – 30-y Bond Auction
  • 4:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Financial Stability Report

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported.

The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Daily Gold News: Tuesday, May 10 – Gold Trades Along the Recent Lows

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract lost 1.29% on Monday, May 9, as it extended a short-term consolidation below the $1,900 price level. Gold continues to fluctuate after declining from the resistance level of $2,000 in April on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. This morning the yellow metal is trading along its yesterday’s closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.2% higher this morning, as it is trading slightly above the $1,850 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is unchanged, platinum is 1.7% higher and palladium is 0.8% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Wholesale Inventories number release has been as expected at +2.3%. Today we will get speeches from the Fed members, and the markets will be waiting for the important Consumer Price Index release tomorrow.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Tuesday, May 10

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 6:00 a.m. U.S. – NFIB Small Business Index
  • 7:40 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Waller Speech
  • 3:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

Wednesday, May 11

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
  • 1:01 p.m. U.S. – 10-y Bond Auction
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Federal Budget Balance
  • All Day – OPEC Meetings

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

COT: China Growth Fears and Strong Dollar Drive Exodus From Metals

A week that saw a continued deterioration in the global growth outlook driven by extended China lockdowns, a stronger dollar and increasingly aggressive rate hike signals from members of the US Federal Reserve. The week highlighted how traders positioned themselves ahead of last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. During the week US ten-year bond yields jumped 25 basis points while the dollar reached fresh cycle highs against most currencies. Commodities were mixed with gains in energy and softs being offset by losses across grains, livestock and metals.

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index traded close to unchanged in the week to May 3 with a six percent gain in energy led by natural gas and diesel as well higher prices for cocoa and cotton in the softs sector, offsetting weakness in precious (-2.3%) and industrial metals (-5.2%), as well as grains (-2.8%).

Speculators and money managers responding to these price changes and the continued loss of momentum by cutting bullish bets across 24 major commodity futures by 7% to 1.85 million lots, a four month low.

Despite racing to a record high in recent weeks, the sector has increasingly become nervours about the global growth and demand look. In the short term due to Chinese lockdowns and longer term due to high inflation and tightening monetary conditions hurting demand. The drop in the total net long to a four months low also driven by elevated volatility forcing leveraged funds, targeting a certain level of volatiltiy to cut their exposure.

From a recent pre-war and pre-China lockdown peak on February 22 at 2.23 million lots, the energy sector exposure has been cut by 23%, metals are down 67% while the agriculture sector is up 2% led by softs.

Energy

Crude oil and refined product futures witnessed a small build in net longs held by funds while a 14% surge in natural gas helped trigger profit taking resulting in a 14% reduction in the net long held in four Henry Hub deliverable futures and swap contracts. Small buying of crude oil did not hide the fact momentum has slowed and traders have become more risk adverse given the number of multiple forces currently impacting the price of oil in both directions.

Latest: Crude oil (OILUKJUL22 & OILUSJUN22) trades steady near a one-month high with the general risk aversity from a stronger dollar, the economic damage from China lockdowns, inflation and monetary tightening being offset by continued supply concerns from Russia and other OPEC+ producers struggling to meet their production targets. G-7 leaders have joined the EU in making a commitment to phase out their dependency on Russian energy, including oil.

While the risk in our opinion remains skewed to the upside, the latest developments are likely to keep crude oil rangebound with focus instead on refined products where multi-year highs are already hurting demand. Monthly oil market reports from EIA Tuesday, followed by OPEC and IEA on Thursday.

Metals

Gold was sold for a third consecutive week with the net-long falling to a three-month low with rising yields and the stronger dollar driving a loss of momentum. The 17% reduction to 82.9k lots was driven by a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling lifting the gross short to a seven-month high.

Copper has recently suffered from extended China lockdowns hurting the outlook for demand from the worlds top consumer, as well as short selling from macro-based funds using copper as a short play on China. Four weeks of net selling culminated last week with the position flipping to a net short of 8.8k lots for the first time in two years.

Latest: Gold remains at the mercy of a continued rise in US Treasury yields and the stronger dollar with inflation data this week from the U.S. and elsewhere potentially driving additional volatility across market. China and India, two major sources of demand for gold, both seeing their currencies weakening against the dollar, thereby potentially negatively impacting the short-term demand outlook.

Overall, however, compared with stocks and bonds, gold’s relative strength continues. As of last Friday, an investor based in dollars holding gold was +16% ahead relative to the S&P 500 and more than 26% versus TLT:arcx an ETF that tracks the performance of long-dated US government bonds.

In Europe, an investor based in euros has seen an XAUEUR position outperform the pan-European Stoxx50 index by more than 25% and 20% versus an ETF tracking European government bonds. Support at $1850 and $1830.

Agriculture

The grains sector saw selling across all of the six futures contracts led by a 50k lots reduction across the three soybean contracts. The overall 66k reduction was generally driven by a combination of longs being reduced and fresh short positions being added.

Overall the total net long across the sector and the Bloomberg Grains Spot index remains close to a multiyear high, a reflection of current adverse weather uncertainty across the world raising concerns about production levels, together with the risk of the Ukraine war preventing production and exports of key food commodities from wheat to sunflower oil.

Forex

Broad dollar strength and with that broad demand against its major peers accelerated ahead of last week’s FOMC meeting. As the Dollar index climbed to levels last seen in 2003, all of the nine IMM futures tracked in this saw net selling with the aggregate dollar long jumping by $6.3 billion or 41% to $21.8 billion. Selling was most noticeable in EUR were 28.6k lots of selling flipped the net back to a 6.4k lots net short.

This was followed by CAD (-11.9k) and JPY where 5.3k lots of selling took the net short to within 90% of the recent peak at -111.8k lots. Sterling meanwhile was sold for a ninth week, driving an increase in the net short to a 2-1/2-year high -73.8k lots.

What Is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other

Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other

Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

What Does The Most Aggressive Tightening Cycle In Decades Mean For Commodity Prices?

Commodity Markets Fundamental Analysis

Central bankers and governments acknowledge that inflationary pressures could persist for years, driven in part by the on-going Russia-Ukraine war, lockdowns in China and soaring energy prices.

In the U.S, inflation is rising at its fastest pace in 41-years. In China and Japan, inflation is shattering records. While in many other economies, including the UK, Canada and Europe inflation is at its highest level in over 30-years and still accelerating.

If inflation continues to surge at the current pace across the world, then we’re only months away from a return to double-digit inflation on the same scale last seen in the 1970s.

To regain credibility, central banks across the world have come under pressure to move more aggressively on rate hikes, which ultimately means, Stagflation is now a major risk to the economy in the second half of the year, or worst still a recession.

Last week, the Federal Reserve executed their biggest interest rate hike in 22 years with a 50-basis point increase.

This is the first time since 2006 that the Fed has implemented rate increases at back-to-back meetings as rapidly surging inflationary pressures and the cost of living crisis continues to worsen.

Elsewhere, The Bank of England also followed in the Fed’s footsteps by raising interest rates to their highest level in 13 years.

Both the Fed and Bank of England have signalled they will follow up with more aggressive hikes of the same size at their upcoming meetings.

Historically, 11 of the last 14 major central bank tightening cycles since World War II have been followed by a recession within the next 12 months.

Will that be the same again this time around?

Only time will tell, however one thing we do know for certain is that global equity markets tend to crash once central banks begins their tightening cycle. This inversely presents huge bullish tailwinds for Commodities as they are viewed as one of the most reliable hedges against economic risk, inflation and recession.

Already within the first 4 month of 2022 – a total 27 Commodities ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities have tallied up astronomical double to triple digit gains.

And this is just the beginning!

To quote Goldman Sachs, “they have never seen the Commodities markets this bullish before”.

Commodity Price Forecasts for the Week 9-13 May 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Monday, May 9 – Gold Price Went Below $1,900 Again

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.38% on Friday, May 6, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation. Gold remained close to the $1,900 price level after declining from the resistance level of $2,000 in April on strengthening U.S. dollar, Fed’s monetary policy tightening fears. This morning the yellow metal is lower, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 1.4% higher this morning, as it is trading well below the $1,900 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 2.9% lower, platinum is 2.9% lower and palladium is 1.9% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are lower this morning.

Fundamentals

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls release has been better than expected at +428,000. Today we will get the Wholesale Inventories number release at 10:00 a.m.

The markets will continue to react to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war news.

Where Would the Price of Gold Go Following Last Wednesday’s Fed Release?

We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 62-month-long period of time that contains of forty three FOMC releases. The following chart shows average gold price path before and after the FOMC releases for the past 43 releases. The market was usually declining ahead of the FOMC day. Then it was going up for a week-long period. We can see that on average, gold price was 0.68% higher 10 days after the FOMC Statement announcement.

Economic News Schedule for Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Monday, May 9

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m

Tuesday, May 10

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 6:00 a.m. U.S. – NFIB Small Business Index
  • 7:40 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Waller Speech
  • 3:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.