WTI Oil Stays Above $80 After EIA Report

Key Insights

  • Crude inventories declined by 12.6 million barrels from the previous week. 
  • Natural gas moved below the $7.00 level as rail strike risks declined. 
  • Copper rallied as traders bet that China would relax its zero-COVID policy after recent protests. 

WTI Oil Pulled Back From Highs But Stayed Above The Key $80 Level

WTI oil continues to trade above the $80 level after the release of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The report indicated that crude inventories declined by 12.6 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of 2.76 million. It should be noted that crude oil imports declined by 1 million bpd from the previous week.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories grew by 3.5 million barrels. Domestic oil production remained unchanged at 12.1 million bpd.

The sharp drop in crude inventories was driven by the fall in crude oil imports, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories increased significantly. In the near term, traders will stay focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the Russian oil price cap story.

Natural Gas Retreats As U.S. Lawmakers Are Ready To Prevent The Strike

Natural gas pulled back below the $7.00 level as traders reacted to the decreasing risk of a rail strike.

The U.S. lawmakers plan to pass legislation that would avert the strike, which is bearish for natural gas markets. At this point, it looks that natural gas has a good chance to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

Gold Pulls Back From Session Highs As Dollar Rebounds

Gold has recently made another attempt to settle above the $1760 level but lost momentum and pulled back towards $1750 as the U.S. dollar rebounded from session lows.

Gold

If gold settles below the $1750 level, it will move towards the next support level, which is located near the 20 EMA at $1730. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at the 50 EMA at $1715.

On the upside, gold needs to settle above the resistance at $1765 to gain additional upside momentum. The next resistance level for gold is located at $1775. A successful test of this level will push gold towards November highs at $1785.

Other precious metals are moving higher as traders hope that China will gradually ease its strict zero-COVID policy. Silver made an attempt to settle above the $22.00 level. Platinum moved towards $1050, while palladium rebounded towards the $1850 level.

Copper Tries To Settle Above $3.75

Copper rallied towards the $3.75 level as traders bet that China’s demand would increase when the country relaxes its anti-coronavirus measures. If copper settles above $3.75, it will head towards the next resistance at $3.80.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Pulls Back From Session Highs As OPEC+ May Keep Output At Current Levels

Key Insights

  • Recent reports about OPEC+ plans to keep production levels intact put pressure on oil markets. 
  • Natural gas is moving higher as traders stay focused on the potential rail strike. 
  • Precious metals rebound despite higher Treasury yields. 

WTI Oil Failed To Settle Above The $79 Level

WTI oil  moved back towards the $79 level as fears about Chinese lockdowns eased. It looks that protests in China are under control, which is also bullish for oil markets.

However, oil markets lost momentum after reports indicated that OPEC+ may keep its production policy unchanged at the next meeting.

WTI Oil

The nearest support level for WTI oil is located at $77.25. If oil settles back below this level, it will head towards the support at $76.75. A move below $76.75 will push WTI oil towards the support at $76.30.

On the upside, a move above the $78 level will push WTI oil towards the resistance level at $79.15. If WTI oil climbs above this level, it will head towards the psychologically important resistance at $80.

Natural Gas Keeps Moving Higher

Natural gas prices have moved towards the $7.35 level as the potential rail strike continued to provide support to the market.

The weather forecast remains unfavorable for higher natural gas consumption, but traders focus on the potential demand boost from the strike. The timing of the Freeport LNG restart remains uncertain, and the market will be extremely sensitive to any news on this front.

The nearest resistance level for natural gas is located at $7.55. In case natural gas climbs above this level, it will head towards the resistance at $7.80.

Gold Rebounds Despite Higher Treasury Yields

Gold managed to get above the $1750 level despite higher Treasury yields. From a big picture point of view, gold is stuck in the $1740 – $1760 range.

Meanwhile, silver moved back towards the resistance at $21.25. In case silver settles above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at $21.60.

Platinum made an attempt to settle above the resistance at $1015, while palladium pulled back towards $1825 after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the $1850 level.

Copper Rebounds As Traders Hope That China Will Gradually Relax Its Strict COVID Rules

Copper rebounded towards the $3.65 level as traders bet that recent protests in China would not put additional pressure on the economy. Copper bulls hope that China will slowly relax its zero-COVID policy, which will provide additional support to copper markets. It remains to be seen whether China is ready for any serious moves on this front in the near term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Exclusive: India asked by sanctions-hit Russia for parts for key sectors – sources

By Aditi Shah, Aftab Ahmed and Gleb Stolyarov

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery including parts for cars, aircraft and trains, four sources familiar with the matter said, as sanctions squeeze Russia’s ability to keep vital industries running.

The list, a version of which has been seen by Reuters in New Delhi, is provisional and it is unclear how many of the items will eventually be exported and in what quantity, but an Indian government source said the request was unusual in its scope.

India is keen to boost trade in this way, said the source, as it tries to narrow a ballooning trade deficit with Russia. Some companies have expressed concern, however, about potentially falling foul of Western sanctions.

An industry source in Moscow, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade asked large companies to supply lists of raw materials and equipment they needed.

The source added that further discussion would be needed to agree specifications and volumes and that the outreach was not limited to India.

Russia’s Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Indian foreign and commerce ministries and the prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Russia’s requests were made weeks ahead of Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow starting Nov. 7, two of the Indian sources said. It was not immediately clear what was conveyed by New Delhi to Russia during the visit.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has not joined Western countries in openly criticising Moscow for the war in Ukraine, and has sharply increased purchases of Russian oil that have cushioned it from some of the impact of sanctions.

During the Moscow visit, Jaishankar said India needed to boost exports to Russia to balance bilateral trade that is now tilted towards Russia.

He was accompanied on the visit by senior officials in charge of agriculture, petroleum and natural gas, ports and shipping, finance, chemicals and fertiliser, and trade – which he said showed the importance of ties with Russia.

RUSSIA’S STRUGGLES

Western sanctions have crippled supplies of some crucial products in Russia.

Airlines are experiencing an acute shortage of parts because almost all planes are foreign-made. Car parts are also in demand, with global automakers having left the market.

A source in Russia’s car sales industry said the trade ministry had sent a list of car parts needed to corresponding ministries and state agencies in other countries, including India.

The list of items from Russia, which runs to nearly 14 pages, includes car engine parts like pistons, oil pumps and ignition coils. There is also demand for bumpers, seatbelts and infotainment systems.

For aircraft and helicopters, Russia requested 41 items including landing gear components, fuel systems, communication systems and fire extinguishing systems, life jackets and aviation tyres.

Also on the list were raw materials to produce paper, paper bags and consumer packaging and materials and equipment to produce textiles including yarns and dyes, according to the document reviewed by Reuters.

Russian metals producers like nickel and palladium giant Nornickel have said Western sanctions and self-sanctioning by some suppliers have made it difficult for industrial companies to obtain imported equipment, spare parts, materials and technologies in 2022, posing a challenge to their development programmes.

The list includes nearly 200 metallurgy items.

Russia has been India’s largest supplier of military equipment for decades and it is the fourth-biggest market for Indian pharmaceutical products.

But with purchases of Russian oil soaring and coal and fertiliser shipments also strong, India is looking for ways to rebalance trade, the first Indian government source said.

India’s growing trade with Russia https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-RUSSIA/zgpobmlbdvd/chart.png

Indian imports from Russia have grown nearly five times to $29 billion between Feb. 24 and Nov. 20 compared with $6 billion in the same period a year ago. Exports, meanwhile, have fallen to $1.9 billion from $2.4 billion, the source said.

India is hoping to boost its exports to nearly $10 billion over coming months with Russia’s list of requests, according to the government source.

But some Indian companies are reluctant to export to Russia over fears of being sanctioned by the West, the lack of clarity over payments and challenges to securing insurance.

“There is a hesitancy among exporters … particularly on sanctioned items,” said Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), a body supported by India’s commerce ministry.

Sahai, who is aware of Russia’s request, said even small- and medium-sized exporters who could meet some of the requests and had previously exported to Iran after Western sanctions, were not enthusiastic.

Large Indian lenders are also reluctant to process direct rupee trade transactions with Russia, months after the mechanism was put in place, for fear of being sanctioned.

India’s imports from Russia at record high https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-RUSSIA/lgvdkwgkrpo/chart.png

India’s exports to Russia falls https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-RUSSIA/gkplwgkxdvb/chart.png

(Additional reporting by Manoj Kumar in New Delhi; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Louise Heavens)

WTI Oil Gains Ground After Testing Yearly Lows

Key Insights

  • WTI oil received support near $73.60 and moved towards the $77 level. 
  • Gold pulled back below $1750.
  • Copper found itself under pressure as traders bet that protests in China would hurt the economy. 

WTI Oil Rebounds As Traders Bet On Aggressive Production Cuts From OPEC+

WTI oil  tested lows near the $73.60 level as traders reacted to the protests in China, which were driven by strict anti-coronavirus measures.

However, oil prices managed to gain upside momentum and moved back towards the $77 level amid rumors that OPEC+ may decide to cut production aggressively at the next meeting on December 4.

Meanwhile, EU countries failed to reach consensus on the Russian oil price cap deal. Negotiations continue, and it remains to be seen whether EU officials will be able to strike a deal before December 5, when the EU embargo on Russian oil would be implemented.

Natural Gas Continues To Trade Above The $7.00 Level

Natural gas  is trading above the $7.00 level as traders wait for additional catalysts. The weather forecast points to moderate natural gas consumption in the near term, but there is no sell-off in natural gas markets.

Some traders continue to exit their positions after the recent rally, but demand for natural gas remains strong. Most likely, the market will need significant catalysts to gain additional momentum and move out of the current trading range.

Silver Retreats As Dollar Rebounds

Silver found itself under strong pressure today and moved below the $21.00 level. The strong rebound of the U.S. dollar served as a bearish catalyst for silver markets.

Silver

If silver settles below the $21.00 level, it will get to the test of the next support at $20.80. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the support at $20.60. In case silver declines below $20.60, it will head towards the support at $20.40.

On the upside, silver needs to climb back above $21.00 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for silver is located at $21.25. If silver moves above this level, it will head towards the resistance at $21.60.

Other precious metals are also moving lower today. Gold pulled back towards the $1745 level, while palladium declined towards $1825. Platinum is trading near the $1000 level.

Copper Is Under Pressure Amid Protests In China

Copper moved below the $3.60 level as traders reacted to the protests in China, which is the world’s main consumer of copper. If China maintains its zero-COVID policy or protests get out of control, its economy will get hurt and demand for copper will drop. The events in China will likely serve as the key catalyst for copper markets in the upcoming days.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Faced Strong Resistance Near The $80 Level

Key Insights

  • WTI oil tried to rebound but lost momentum and pulled back. 
  • Natural gas traders wait for additional catalysts. 
  • Copper remains stuck in the $3.60 – $3.65 range. 

WTI Oil Declined Below $78

WTI oil made an attempt to settle above the $80 level but lost momentum and pulled back below $78. Traders continue to wait for the news on the Russian oil price cap scheme. Yesterday, negotiations were postponed as Poland insisted on a $30 level, while other countries wanted to set the cap above the $65 level.

WTI Oil

In case WTI oil settles below the $78 level, it will move towards the support at $77.25. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the support at $76.75. In case WTI oil declines below $76.75, it will head towards the next support level at $76.30.

On the upside, WTI oil needs to settle back above $78 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. The next resistance level for WTI oil is located at $79.15. A move above $79.15 will push WTI oil towards the resistance at $80.00.

Natural Gas Is Mostly Flat

Natural gas markets are mostly flat as traders wait for additional catalysts. Trading activity will be low today as many traders have left for a long weekend and will get back to work on Monday.

In Europe, prices have started to move higher as traders expect that weather will become colder in early December. It remains to be seen whether the developments in the European markets will have any material impact on the U.S. markets in the near term as the restart of Freeport LNG has been delayed.

Gold Retreats As Dollar Rebounds

Gold pulled back towards the $1750 level as the U.S. dollar rebounded against a broad basket of currencies. Treasury yields moved higher, which was also bearish for gold.

Other precious metals have also found themselves under pressure in today’s trading session. Silver settled back below the $21.50 level. Platinum declined below $1000, while palladium moved towards the $1800 level.

Copper Needs Additional Catalysts To Move Higher

Copper  has recently made another attempt to settle above the $3.65 level but lost momentum and pulled back towards $3.62. Strict anti-coronavirus measures in China continue to serve as a significant negative catalyst for copper markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Tests Resistance At $21.60

Key Insights

  • Weaker dollar provided some support to precious metals in today’s trading session. 
  • WTI oil continued to trade near the $77.50 level as traders waited for the news on the Russian oil price cap. 
  • Natural gas made an attempt to settle below the support at $7.20.

Silver Tries To Continue Its Rebound

Silver  has recently made an attempt to settle above $21.60 but lost momentum and pulled back towards the $21.50 level. Weaker dollar provided support to silver in today’s trading session, but it looks that some traders decided to take profits off the table after the recent rebound.

Silver

The nearest resistance level for silver is located at $21.60. In case silver settles above this level, it will move towards the next resistance level at $21.80. A successful test of the resistance at $21.80 will open the way to the test of the resistance at $22.00.

On the support side, the nearest support for silver is located at $21.25. In case silver declines below this level, it will head towards the next support at $21.00. A move below the support at $21.00 will push silver towards the support level near the 20 EMA at $20.80.

Meanwhile, gold managed to gain some upside momentum and moved closer to the $1760 level. Platinum pulled back towards $1000, while palladium made an attempt to settle above $1900.

WTI Oil Is Mostly Flat As Traders Wait For News

WTI oil remains stuck near the $77.50 level as traders are waiting for the news about the Russian oil price cap.

Interestingly, rising coronavirus cases in China did not put additional pressure on the oil markets. In the near term, the Russian oil price cap story will remain the key driver for oil prices.

Natural Gas Tested Support At $7.20

Natural gas has recently made an attempt to settle below the support at $7.20 as traders took profits after the recent rally.

However, natural gas markets failed to develop additional downside momentum as rail strike fears provided some support to natural gas prices.

Most likely, natural gas markets will remain volatile in the upcoming trading sessions as traders will react to the developments in the rail strike story.

Copper Tried To Settle Above $3.65

Copper made an attempt to settle above the $3.65 level despite worries about the situation with coronavirus in China. Traders should keep in mind that trading volume will be low due to the holiday in the U.S., so it remains to be seen whether copper markets will be able to gain sufficient upside momentum to move above the $3.65 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Retreats Towards $77 As Traders Focus On Russian Oil Price Cap Rumors

Key Insights

  • WTI oil gained strong downside momentum as traders reacted to the latest rumors about the Russian oil price cap. 
  • Natural gas rallied as traders continued to prepare for the potential rail strike. 
  • Gold rebounded as U.S. dollar declined against a broad basket of currencies. 

WTI Oil Remains Under Strong Pressure After EIA Report

WTI oil remains under strong pressure after the release of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories declined by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories grew by 1.7 million barrels. Domestic oil production remained unchanged at 12.1 million bpd.

According to recent reports, G7 wants to set the Russian oil price cap at $65 – $70 per barrel. This is bearish for the oil market as such a price cap increases chances that all Russian oil will stay in the market. Traders are also worried that rising coronavirus cases in China will lead to slower economic growth and hurt demand for oil. China has already introduced additional curbs.

WTI Oil

Oil markets have been extremely volatile in recent trading sessions. Technical levels are not important when the market is focused on the news. In the near term, traders should be prepared for fast moves, which will be driven by the news on the Russian oil price cap.

Natural Gas Rallies As The Potential Rail Strike May Boost Demand

Natural gas rallied towards the $7.50 level as traders focused on the potential rail strike.

The weather forecast is not favorable for high natural gas consumption, but the market is worried that the rail strike would boost demand for natural gas as utilities will be forced to switch from coal to natural gas.

In case natural gas settles above the $7.50 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $7.75.

Gold Rebounds As U.S. Dollar Declines

Gold moved back above the $1740 level as the U.S. dollar found itself under significant pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

Silver gained strong upside momentum and moved towards the $21.30 level. Platinum declined towards $1000, while palladium made an attempt to settle above $1900.

Copper Remains Stuck Near The $3.60 Level

Copper continues to trade near the $3.60 level as traders remain worried about potential lockdowns in China.

In case copper fails to settle above the $3.60 level, it will get to another test of the support at the 50 EMA at $3.57.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Settles Above $81 As Traders Worry That OPEC+ May Cut Production

Key Insights

  • WTI oil continues to rebound amid worries that OPEC+ will cut production instead of boosting output. 
  • Natural gas is testing the resistance at $6.75 as traders stay focused on rail strike risks. 
  • Copper gained upside momentum after a lengthy pullback.

WTI Oil Climbed Above The $81 Level As The Rebound Continued

WTI oil  moved above the $81 level as traders worried that OPEC+ may cut production at the next meeting on December 4. Yesterday, oil markets found themselves under pressure amid reports that OPEC+ may increase production by 500,000 bpd ahead of the Russian oil price cap.

The market sentiment shifted quickly, and oil is gaining ground as traders fear that a production cut may be coming. Interestingly, the market ignores the problems with coronavirus in China.

WTI Oil

At tis point, it looks that WTI oil has sufficient support near the $75 level, and the oil market will need significant catalysts to settle below this level.

Natural Gas Tests Resistance At $6.75

Natural gas  continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at $6.75 as traders prepare for the potential rail strike.

The weather forecast has recently changed, and warmer weather is expected. The natural gas demand should be moderate, but the strike risk is sufficient enough to push natural gas prices towards the $6.75 level. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at $6.90.

Gold Gains Ground As Dollar Is Under Pressure

Gold has recently made an attempt to settle above the $1750 level as Treasury yields declined. Weaker dollar served as an additional bullish catalyst for gold and other precious metals.

Silver managed to get back above the $21 level after an unsuccessful attempt to settle below the support at $20.80. Platinum rebounded above $1000, while palladium settled near the $1865 level.

Copper Rebounds After The Strong Pullback

Copper moved back above the $3.60 level as some traders were ready to bet on a rebound after a lengthy pullback.

Problems with coronavirus in China remain the key risk for copper markets in the near term as China is the world’s main consumer of copper.

If China introduces additional curbs, copper markets will find themselves under pressure, and copper prices may settle below the $3.50 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum deficit expected in 2023 after bumper surpluses, WPIC says

LONDON (Reuters) – The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Tuesday it expected a deficit of the metal used in vehicle exhausts, industry and jewellery in 2023 after a hefty surplus this year.

It said use by auto makers would rise and investors would flip from net sellers to net buyers, pushing demand in 2023 up 19% to 7.77 million ounces, the most since 2020.

Power outages and maintenance at mines in top producer South Africa will meanwhile restrict supply, creating a deficit of 303,000 ounces next year, said the WPIC, which uses data from consultants Metals Focus.

The WPIC also said the market would be oversupplied this year by 804,000 ounces, less than the 974,000-ounce surplus it said it expected in its last quarterly report in September.

Platinum market balance https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/zgpobmnobvd/WPIC%20Q3%20BALANCE.JPG

Auto industry demand is being boosted by rising vehicle production and tighter regulations requiring more metal in exhaust systems to neutralise emissions.

Manufacturers are also replacing palladium with cheaper platinum to save money, with such substitution accounting for 340,000 ounces of platinum demand this year and just over 500,000 ounces in 2023, the WPIC said.

Purchases of platinum bars and coins will rise 49% next year as buying in Japan increases, the WPIC said, while outflow of metal from exchange traded funds and exchanges should slow considerably.

It said demand from industry would be the second highest on record in 2023 as use by glassmakers increases by 52%.

Global platinum demand https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/gkvlwgloypb/WPIC%20Q3%2022.JPG

Despite oversupply, availability of platinum has been tight because China has imported 2.5 million ounces since early 2021, the WPIC said.

These imports are not included in the WPIC’s demand data as it is unclear whether and how they are being used.

“These excess imports, whether used or held as inventory, exceed the 2021 and 2022 global surpluses combined, and will not be available to re-enter Western markets to address the deficit in 2023 due to domestic export controls,’ said WPIC chief executive Trevor Raymond.

“This could lead to an even further tightening of the platinum market next year,” he said.

Following are numbers and comparisons.

ANNUAL PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

2021 2022f 2023f 2022/ 2023/

2021 % 2022 %

change change

SUPPLY

Refined Production 6,297 5,643 5,726 -10% 1%

Producer Inventory +/- -93 -5 0 N/A N/A

Recycling 1,937 1,669 1,740 -14% 4%

TOTAL SUPPLY 6,204 5,637 5,726 -9% 2%

DEMAND

Automotive 2,635 2,964 3,288 12% 11%

Jewellery 1,953 1,953 1,954 0% 0%

Industrial 2,450 2,110 2,316 -14% 10%

– Of which chemical 658 627 666 -5% 6%

– Petroleum 172 200 180 17% -10%

– Electrical 135 110 107 -19% -3%

– Glass 697 316 481 -55% 52%

– Medical 267 276 283 3% 3%

– Other 522 581 599 11% 3%

Investment -45 -525 212 N/A N/A

– bars and coins 332 340 507 2% 49%

– ETF holdings -238 -550 -275 N/A N/A

– Exchange stocks -139 -315 -20 N/A N/A

TOTAL DEMAND 6,993 6,502 7,770 -7% 19%

SURPLUS/DEFICIT 1,147 804 -303 -30% N/A

Above Ground Stocks 3,623 4,426 4,123 22% -7%

QUARTERLY PLATINUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*

Q3 2021 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q3/Q3 %

change

SUPPLY

Refined Production 1,571 1,530 1,401 -11%

Producer Inventory +/- -43 -2 -43 2%

Recycling 452 439 391 -13%

TOTAL SUPPLY 1,529 1,528 1,357 -11%

DEMAND

Automotive 580 712 723 25%

Jewellery 485 496 482 -1%

Industrial 543 565 553 2%

– Of which chemical 161 167 174 8%

– Petroleum 39 50 51 29%

– Electrical 35 27 26 -26%

– Glass 112 101 92 -18%

– Medical 66 70 69 4%

– Other 130 150 141 9%

Investment -282 -137 -272 -4%

– Bars and coins 110 75 97 -12%

– ETF holdings -219 -89 -235 7%

– Exchange stocks -173 -123 -134 -22%

TOTAL DEMAND 1,325 1,636 1,485 12%

SURPLUS/DEFICIT 656 331 263 -60%

* Source: World Platinum Investment Council, Platinum Quarterly Q3 2022

(Reporting by Peter Hobson. Editing by Jane Merriman)

WTI Oil Rebounds As Saudi Arabia Denies Report About Output Increase

Key Insights

  • Saudi Arabia officially denied the recent report that it was discussing a production increase of 500,000 bpd. 
  • Natural gas rallied as traders feared that a potential rail strike would block coal shipments and force utilities to boost natural gas consumption.
  • Gold pulled back as dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies. 

WTI Oil Rebounds From Session Lows As Saudi Arabia ‘Categorically Denies’ Recent Report About Production Increase

WTI oil has suffered a strong sell-off as traders reacted to problems with coronavirus in China and Saudi Arabia’s potential plans to boost production at the next OPEC+ meeting.

However, Saudi Arabia stated that it did not have such plans. According to the Saudi Press Agency, “Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, categorically denies recent reports that Saudi Arabia is discussing with other OPEC producers an output increase of 500 thousand barrels per day.”

WTI Oil

The report from the Saudi Press Agency provided significant support to oil markets, and WTI oil moved closer to the $80 level.

Natural Gas Rallies As Traders Focus On The Potential Rail Strike

Natural gas gained 7% and tested the resistance level at $6.75 as the largest rail union rejected labor deal. The risk of a national strike is rising, which means that coal shipments could be hurt, and utilities’s demand for natural gas could increase.

The weather forecast is favorable for high natural gas consumption, providing additional support to the market. In case natural gas manages to settle above $6.75, it will move towards the next resistance level at $6.90.

Gold Declines As Dollar Rallies

Gold  settled below the support at $1750 and made an attempt to get below the next support level at $1730 as traders focused on the strong U.S. dollar. Treasury yields moved lower today, but this move did not provide any support to precious metals.

Meanwhile, silver tested the 20 EMA at $20.65. Platinum made an attempt to settle below $975, while palladium pulled back towards the $1850 level. Problems with coronavirus in China served as an additional negative catalyst for precious metals markets.

Copper Tests Support At The 50 EMA

Copper settled below the $3.60 level and is testing the 50 EMA at $3.57 as traders abandon hopes about rising demand in China.

In case copper manages to settle below the 50 EMA, it will gain additional downside momentum and move towards the $3.50 level.

Traders should note that China is the world’s main consumer of copper, so the continuation of the strict COVID curbs in China would have a significant negative impact on copper markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Retreats As Traders Focus On Rising Coronavirus Cases In China

Key Insights

  • The strong sell-off in the oil markets continued as traders focused on the problems with coronavirus in China. 
  • Gold made an attempt to settle below the $1750 level as Treasury yields moved higher. 
  • Copper is trying to get below the $3.65 level.

WTI Oil Managed To Settle Below The Key $80 Level

WTI oil declined below the $80 level and made an attempt to settle below $77.50 as traders feared that rising coronavirus cases in China will lead to lower demand for oil.

The number of new coronavirus cases in China continues to increase at a robust pace, and market participants are worried that China will abandon any plans to further relax its strict COVID policy.

Natural Gas Tests Resistance At $6.40

Natural gas continues its attempts to settle above the key resistance level at $6.40. Yesterday’s EIA report, which indicated that working gas in storage increased by 64 Bcf from the previous week, did not put material pressure on natural gas markets.

The weather forecast remains favorable for high natural gas consumption, which is bullish for natural gas prices. In case natural gas manages to settle above the $6.40 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and move towards the resistance level at $6.75.

Gold Pulls Back As Treasury Yields Keep Moving Higher

Gold is currently trying to settle below the support level at $1750 as Treasury yields continue to rebound. The recent hawkish comments from Fed’s Bullard put additional pressure on bond markets, pushing yields away from recent lows.

Gold

Gold managed to settle below the support at $1765 and is testing the next support level at $1750. If this test is successful, gold will move towards the next support level, which is located at $1730. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the support at $1715.

On the upside, the previous support at $1765 will serve as the first resistance level for gold. In case gold climbs above this level, it will move towards the resistance at $1775. A successful test of the resistance at $1775 will push gold towards the next resistance level at the recent highs at $1785.

Meanwhile, silver managed to get back above the $21.00 level. Platinum remained stuck near $1000, while palladium declined towards $1950.

Copper Is Moving Towards The Support Level At $3.60

Copper remains under strong pressure due to coronavirus-related news from China.

Currently, copper is trying to settle below $3.65. In case this attempt is successful, copper will move towards the $3.60 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Pulls Back From The $6.40 Level After EIA Report

Key Insights

  • Natural gas prices failed to settle above the important resistance level at $6.40.
  • WTI oil is under strong pressure as traders prepare for a recession in developed economies. 
  • Stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields caused a sell-off in precious metals markets. 

Natural Gas Faced Strong Resistance At $6.40

Natural gas prices faced strong resistance at $6.40 and pulled back after the release of the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by 64 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of 63 Bcf.

Natural Gas

Natural gas is currently trying to settle back below the support level at $6.20. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the next support at $5.90. A successful test of the support at $5.90 will push natural gas towards the support level at $5.75.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for natural gas is located at $6.40. If natural gas climbs above this level, it will head towards the resistance at $6.75. A successful test of the resistance at $6.75 will open the way to the test of the $6.90 level.

WTI Oil Settled Below $83

WTI oil declined below the $83 level as stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields, and recession worries hurt market sentiment.

The technical factors are also in play as WTI oil managed to gain additional downside momentum after the successful test of the support at $84.20.

Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the support at $82.60. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will move towards the next support, which is located at the $82 level.

Silver Falls As Dollar Rebounds

Silver fell below the $21 level as traders rushed out of precious metals due to stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields.

Platinum and palladium, which are sensitive to industrial demand, have also found themselves under significant pressure. Platinum moved below the $1000 level, while palladium managed to settle below $2000.

Gold faced resistance at $1775 and declined below the support level at $1765.

Copper Moved Back Below The $3.70 Level

Not surprisingly, rising recession fears had a negative impact on copper markets. Copper settled below the $3.75 level and gained additional downside momentum.

Currently, copper prices are trying to settle below $3.70. In case this attempt is successful, copper will find itself back in the $3.60 – $3.70 trading range.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WTI Oil Tests Support At $85 After EIA Report

Key Insights

  • WTI oil continues to move lower after the release of the EIA report. 
  • Natural gas declined towards the low end of the current trading range. 
  • Gold is trying to get above the resistance at $1785 as Treasury yields pull back. 

WTI Oil Is Trying To Settle Back Below $85

WTI oil is trading near the $85 level after the release of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, which indicated that crude inventories declined by 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. Analysts expected that crude inventories would decrease by 0.4 million barrels.

The surprising decline in crude inventories was caused by the significant decline in U.S. crude oil imports.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories grew by 1.1 million barrels. Domestic oil production remained unchanged at 12.1 million bpd.

WTI Oil

From a big picture point of view, WTI oil continues its attempts to settle below the $85 level. A successful test of this level may push WTI oil towards the next significant support level at $83.15.

Natural Gas Tested Support At $5.75

Natural gas faced resistance at $6.20 and pulled back towards the $5.75 level. Natural gas prices have been stuck in the $5.75 – $6.40 range in recent trading sessions, and the market needs additional catalysts to get out of this trading range.

Freeport LNG uncertainty remains a bearish catalyst for the market, which is offset by colder weather.

Gold Tests Resistance At $1785

Gold  continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at $1785 as U.S. dollar pulls back against a broad basket of currencies. Lower Treasury yields also serve as a bullish catalyst for gold markets.

Silver has recently made another attempt to settle above the $22.00 level but lost momentum and pulled back towards $21.50. The resistance at $22.00 has been tested many times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

Meanwhile, platinum pulled back towards the $1020 level, while palladium declined towards $2070.

Copper Retreats As The Market Needs Additional Positive Catalysts

Copper markets remain under pressure as traders fail to find additional positive catalysts that could push copper back to the $4.00 level.

Currently, copper is trying to settle below $3.75. In case this attempt is successful, copper will move towards the next significant support level at $3.70.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Are Gold Prices Going Higher Or Lower From Here?

Gold Prices Received a Further Boost This Week After the Producer Price Index

One of the primary catalysts behind the explosive move higher, came after the hotly anticipated U.S Consumer Price Inflation reading rose less than expected in October – boosting expectations that supersize rate hikes are likely now in the rear view mirror.

Last week’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Inflation data offered some relief to the Fed, potentially indicating that October could be the start of a disinflationary trend that lasts through next year.

The Producer Price Index – rose 8% in October compared to an 8.4% increase in September.

While still historically high, it was the smallest increase since July of last year and significantly better than forecasts. This is the second back-to-back inflation report this month to show signs of cooling in the rising prices that have plagued the economy.

The producer index is generally considered a good leading indicator for inflation as it gauges pipeline prices that eventually work their way into the marketplace. PPI differs from the more widely followed consumer price index as the former measures the prices that producers receive at the wholesale level while CPI reflects what consumers actually pay.

For most of this year, the Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates in hopes of bringing down inflation. The central bank has increased its benchmark borrowing rate six times for a total of 3.75% – including four straight 75-basis point rate hikes.

Following this week’s data Traders have started pricing in a strong possibility that the Fed will only hike rates by half a percentage point in December. Wagers are also increasing that the Fed will downshift the pace of rate hikes even further to a quarter percentage point increases by the first-half of 2023.

That view seems to be shared by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard who said this week that “if the economic data continues to show inflation is on the decline, then the central bank could scale back the extent of its future rate hikes”.

Gold Price Forecast Video for November 16, 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Russian blue chips tank after people killed in Poland near Ukraine border

(Reuters) – Shares of Russian blue chips including Gazprom, Rosneft, Sberbank, Polyus and Nornickel were down by down 2-3.8% in late trade in Moscow.

Two people were killed in an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine, firefighters said on Tuesday.

Russian defense ministry said no strikes near Ukrainian-Polish border were conducted by Russian weapons.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Mark Porter)

WTI Oil Tests Resistance At $86.20 As Dollar Rebounds From Session Lows

Key Insights

  • WTI oil is trying to settle back above the $86.20 level. 
  • Silver is losing ground amid profit-taking. 
  • Natural gas prices are moving back and forth near the $6.00 level. 

WTI Oil Rebounds After Testing Support At $84.20

WTI oil found support near the $84 level and rebounded towards $86.00. Today, traders focused on the economic data from China.

China’s Retail Sales declined by 0.5% year-over-year in October, compared to analyst consensus of 1%. Industrial Production increased by 5%, while analysts expected that it would grow by 5.2%.

The reports highlighted the negative impact of coronavirus restrictions. China has recently relaxed some of these restrictions, but it remains to be seen whether this move will provide a material boost to oil demand in the country.

WTI Oil

Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the resistance at $86.20. In case this attempt is successful, it will head towards the next resistance level at $87.75. A successful test of this level will push WTI oil towards the resistance at $88.50.

On the support side, the nearest support level for WTI oil is located at $85.00. If WTI oil declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at $84.20. A move below $84.20 will open the way to the test of the support at $83.15.

Gold Failed To Settle Above The $1775 Level

Gold made another attempt to settle above the resistance at $1775 but lost momentum as the U.S. dollar rebounded from session lows.

Silver gained downside momentum after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above $22.00 as traders decided to take some profits after the recent rally. Platinum pulled back towards the $1020 level, while palladium tested the $2100 level.

Natural Gas Is Stuck Near $6.00

Natural gas prices are stuck near the $6.00 level as colder weather was somewhat offset by the uncertainty regarding the timing of Freeport LNG restart.

Natural gas needs to settle above the $6.20 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the significant resistance level at $6.40.

Copper Markets Move Lower Amid Profit-Taking

Copper pulled back towards the $3.80 level as traders continued to take profits after the recent rally.

To have a chance to get above the $4.00 level, copper markets must stabilize after the current pullback.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold Update: Tuesday, November 15 – Gold Reached New Medium-Term High

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.42% on Monday, November 14, as it further extended its recent advances on weakening U.S. dollar, rallying stock markets. Last week on Thursday gold rallied following lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index release. This morning it’s trading sideways after reaching new medium-term high, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Today, gold is 0.2% higher, as it is trading above the $1,770 price level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.5% lower, platinum is 0.5% higher and palladium is 1.8% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Today we will get the important Producer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m., among others.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Tuesday, November 15

  • 5:00 a.m. U.K. – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 9:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Cook Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Barr Speech
  • All Day – G20 Meetings

Wednesday, November 16

  • 2:00 a.m. U.K. – CPI y/y, Core CPI y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Import Prices m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, Trimmed CPI y/y, Common CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 9:15 a.m. U.K. – Monetary Policy Report Hearings
  • 9:50 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index, FOMC Member Barr Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 2:35 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Waller Speech
  • 7:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • Tentative, Eurozone – ECB Financial Stability Review
  • All Day – G20 Meetings

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Commodity Prices Score Biggest Weekly Gain Since 1960 – What’ Next

Potential Big Moves Ahead, as Traders Focus On U.S PPI Data and the UK Autumn Statement

So far this quarter, a total 27 Commodities ranging from the metals, energies to agriculture have tallied up astronomical double-digit single day gains – not once, not twice, but on multiple occasions – outperforming every other asset class out there.

Just take last week for example – every possible commodity imaginable from Aluminium, Copper, Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Silver, Lumber, Zinc, Crude Oil to Natural Gas prices surged following Thursday’s U.S Consumer Price Inflation data – with a long-list chalking up spectacular gains of 10% or higher – literally in a single day!

The exact same thing happened in the previous week, following the U.S employment report. And yes, you guessed it – the week before that too following the Bank of Japan’s currency intervention.

As a result, there’s really nothing historical you can point to for what’s going on in markets today. We are routinely seeing Commodities across the sector whip up spectacular back to back gains of 10% or higher, almost on a weekly basis – fuelling an era of enormous wealth creation like we have never seen before.

Last week’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Inflation data offered some relief to the Fed, potentially indicating that October could be the start of a disinflationary trend that lasts through next year.

The headline Consumer Price Index rose less than expected – boosting expectations that supersize rate hikes are likely now in the rear view mirror. This week’s hotly anticipated U.S Producer Price Inflation reading will either boost or dampen expectations of a possible Fed “pivot” away from an aggressive interest rate hikes.

Elsewhere, this week all eyes will be on the UK Autumn Statement. After the disastrous “mini-budget” in September, which subsequently forced The Bank of England to revert back to unprecedented “Quantitative Easing” measures – this week’s Autumn Statement is already gearing up to be a major market-moving event, that traders will not want to miss.

Despite short-term UK borrowing costs stabilising since the market meltdown seen in late September, the Chancellor will need to present plans to address the 55 billion pound “black hole” in Government finances.

Should the Chancellor’s fiscal plan fail to instil confidence, then we could be on for a repeat of September announcement, which sent a long-list of commodities surging to multi-month highs – registering their biggest one-day move this year.

Commodity Price Forecast Video for the Week of November 14 to 18, 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Gold Tests Resistance At $1775

Key Insights

  • Gold tries to gain more ground despite stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. 
  • WTI oil is under pressure as coronavirus cases in China continue to grow. 
  • Natural gas rebounds due to colder weather. 

Gold Markets Ignore Stronger Dollar

Gold has recently made an attempt to settle above the resistance at $1775 but lost momentum and pulled back towards the support at the $1765 level.

Interestingly, gold continues its attempts to move higher despite stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. In addition, gold rallied from $1615 to $1775 without any notable pullback, so some traders may want to take profits off the table.

 

Gold

Gold needs to settle above $1775 to continue its rebound. If gold climbs above the $1775 level, it will head towards the next resistance at $1785. A successful test of the resistance at $1785 will push gold towards the $1800 level.

On the support side, the nearest support level for gold is located at $1765. If gold declines below this level, it will move towards the support at $1750. A move below the support at $1750 will open the way to the test of the support at $1730.

Meanwhile, silver made another attempt to settle above the $22.00 level. Platinum pulled back below $1035, while palladium declined closer to the $2000 level.

WTI Oil Is Losing Ground As Traders Worry About Rising Coronavirus Cases In China

WTI oil moved towards the $87 level as traders focused on rising coronavirus cases in China. The country has recently relaxed its coronavirus restrictions, but traders worry that it may quickly get back to the strict zero-COVID policy if the number of new cases continues to move higher.

From a big picture point of view, WTI oil needs more catalysts to gain sustainable upside momentum as traders remain worried about recession in developed economies.

Natural Gas Rebounds As Weather Gets Colder

Natural gas  rallied towards the $6.40 level as traders reacted to the change in weather forecasts. Natural gas consumption is expected to be high due to the colder than normal temperatures.

Traders will also continue to wait for clarity on Freeport LNG, which was expected to get back to work in late November. According to recent reports, Freeport LNG has not secured all regulatory approvals. If the restart of Freeport LNG is delayed, natural gas prices may find themselves under pressure.

Copper Pulls Back Amid Profit-Taking

Copper pulled back below $3.85 after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the $3.90 level.

Rising coronavirus cases in China and profit-taking after the strong rally served as the main catalysts for the move.

If copper manages to settle above the $3.90 level, it will move towards the psychologically important $4.00 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold Update: Monday, November 14 – Gold Price Remains Close to $1,750

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.90% on Friday, November 11, as it extended its uptrend after breaking above the $1,750 price level. On Thursday it rallied 2.3% following lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index release, weakening U.S. dollar and rallying stock markets. This morning gold is retracing its Friday’s advance, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Today, gold is 0.8% lower, as it is still trading above the $1,750 price level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.2% lower, platinum is 2.3% lower and palladium is 3.9% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are lower this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Friday’s UoM Consumer Sentiment release has been lower than expected at 54.7. Today we won’t get any new important economic data releases. However, there will be a speech from the FOMC Member Brainard at 11:30 a.m.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Monday, November 14

  • 11:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Brainard Speech
  • 7:30 p.m. Australia – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • 9:00 p.m. China – Retail Sales y/y
  • Tentative, U.K. – Monetary Policy Report Hearings

Tuesday, November 15

  • 5:00 a.m. U.K. – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 9:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Cook Speech
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Barr Speech
  • All Day – G20 Meetings

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.