Gold Silver Copper Platinum and Palladium Trade In The Green This Morning

Gold Silver Copper Platinum and Palladium Trade In The Green This Morning
Gold Silver Copper Platinum and Palladium Trade In The Green This Morning
Gold is more or less flat this morning trading at 1245.35 in the Asian session. Gold has seen small gains and losses this week but remains in a tight range between the 1240-1250 price level as traders look for higher profits in equities. Wall Street continues to break records as speculators look for higher yielding assets as the year draws to an end. The pact sealed between Western Allies and Iran over the weekend, may not last long, it may not be good or practical but in the near term has helped drop global tensions to their lowest levels in years allowing traders a comfort zone. Gold is a safety net against uncertainty and inflation, neither of which are on the rise as trader sell of gold. Gold lost 26 percent this year, tumbling to a 34-month low of $1,180.50 in June, amid speculation that the Fed will begin trimming its $85 billion-a-month of asset purchases that helped bullion cap a 12th year of gains in 2012. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, were unchanged at 848.91 metric tons yesterday, the least since January 2009, after a six-day contraction that was the longest slump since August. As we approach the FOMC meeting on December 18th traders will once again focus on the tapering issue, but with Janet Yellen taking the reigns over in January, traders are booking odds that nothing will happen in December now that Yellen is pushing to tie stimulus not only to unemployment and inflation but to growth. The US economy is chugging along nicely, but it is sporadic and hectic.

Traders will be closely eyeing today’s durable goods data along with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report which might cause some market volatility but is unlikely to have an effect on precious metals. Silver, which dropped 1.9 percent yesterday, rose as much as 0.3 percent to $19.9224 an ounce before trading at $19.8716. Metal in ETPs dropped to 19,762.4 tons yesterday, the least since Aug. 13. Platinum traded at $1,374.90 an ounce from $1,375.50 yesterday, when prices dropped to a six-week low of $1,369.29. Palladium was little changed at $717.50 an ounce.

Copper gained 4 pips this morning as the US dollar eased a bit. Copper is trading at 3.215 well above last week’s price range with the US dollar at 80.60 down 4 pips today. Copper swung between gains and losses as investors weighed indications of strong demand against consensus of increasing supplies next year. Stockpiles slid to the lowest since Feb. 25 yesterday while the premium buyers in Shanghai pay on top of LME prices to secure the metal was $192.50 a ton today, near the record $210 set in August. These signs of demand contrast with estimates from Barclays Plc and the International Copper Study Group of a worldwide glut in the metal that may almost triple to reach a 13-year high of 272,000 tons in 2014.

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 25-29, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 25-29, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 25-29, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week near recent lows as precious metals eased with silver trading at 19.862 while Copper ended at 3.21 climbing after falling to trade as low as 3.16 this week. Chinese PMI data weighed on the commodity along with growing inventories. Platinum ended near 1383.40 down for the week and Palladium closed the week below its trading range at 713.20. Commodity pressures won’t show up until later in 2014, making it difficult to position early on the sector, says Wilson. Iron ore in particular, where Goldman has the strongest downside view, is tough as a direct play. But shifts in iron ore and other markets, will pressure commodity currencies on the south side, such as the Australian dollar for iron ore and copper, the South African rand for gold and the Brazilian Real for soybeans and iron ore.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Nov 22, 2013

19.862

19.985

20.043

19.815

-0.63%

Nov 21, 2013

19.987

19.898

20.043

19.712

0.46%

Nov 20, 2013

19.895

20.383

20.487

19.783

-2.40%

Nov 19, 2013

20.385

20.365

20.478

20.203

0.08%

Nov 18, 2013

20.368

20.758

20.767

20.298

-1.89%

Copper dipped near three-month lows as expectations of a growing surplus of the metal and a lack of immediate measures to boost commodities demand in China’s reform package offset a softer dollar.

Beijing unwrapped its boldest set of economic and social reforms in nearly three decades relaxing its one-child policy and freeing up markets further to put the world’s No. 2 economy on a more stable footing. The reforms may take years, however. But for copper, expectations of rising mine supply weighed on prices, with the metal unable to draw support also from expectations of continued economic stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to present

Highest: 44.188 on Aug 22, 2011

Average: 31.108 over this period

Lowest: 18.183 on Jun 28, 2013

METALS 1123W

Major Economic Events for the week of November 18-22 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 Nov. 18

10:00

EUR

Trade Balance 

14.3B

14.2B

12.3B

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

25.5B

21.3B

-9.8B

 Nov. 19

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

54.6

54.0

52.8

 

10:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

60.2

63.1

59.1

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Current Conditions 

28.7

31.0

29.7

 

13:30

USD

Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

 Nov. 20

07:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.0%

1.0%

1.2%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

5.12M

5.13M

5.29M

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales (MoM) 

-3.2%

-2.6%

-1.9%

Nov. 21

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.4

50.8

50.9

 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

47.8

49.5

49.1

 

07:58

EUR

French Services PMI 

48.8

51.0

50.9

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

52.5

52.0

51.7

 

08:28

EUR

German Services PMI 

54.5

53.0

52.9

 

08:58

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

51.5

51.5

51.3

 

08:58

EUR

Services PMI 

50.9

51.9

51.6

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

11

1

-4

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

323K

335K

344K

Nov. 22

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

 

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

109.3

107.7

107.4

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

112.2

111.6

111.3

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

106.3

104.0

103.7

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Nov. 25

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.0%

-5.6%

Nov. 26 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.930M

0.926M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.913M

 

 

13:30

USD

Building Permits (MoM) 

 

-2.9%

 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

72.5

71.2

Nov. 27 

09:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

7.0

7.0

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.8%

0.8%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

1.5%

1.5%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

10

2

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

-0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.5%

3.8%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

62.0

65.9

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

72.0

Nov. 28

08:00

EUR

Spanish GDP (QoQ) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

3K

2K

Nov. 29

07:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.4%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

-0.1%

The Comex Halts Gold Trading For 60 Seconds On Sharp Decline

The Comex Halts Gold Trading For 60 Seconds On Sharp Decline
The Comex Halts Gold Trading For 60 Seconds On Sharp Decline
Industrial metals, base metals and precious metals all took major falls over the last days. Gold tumbled to trade at 1246.20 declining almost $12.00 in the Asian session after tumbling from the 1275 range early on Wednesday. Silver followed on the heels of gold to trade at 19.810 down by 248 points. Platinum actual bucked the trend this morning adding $3.75 as traders took advantage of yesterday’s huge declines to buy up the precious metal on the cheap. Palladium remains at 713.20. Copper remained flat trading near recent lows at 3.148. Federal Reserve minutes seemed to upset the applecart on Wednesday evening as traders read too much into the minutes. Mr. Bernanke and Ms. Yellen have both been on the speaking circuits continuously saying that the Fed stimulus would continue into 2014, but traders reading the minutes have concluded that the Fed could begin to taper its huge monthly purchases regardless of the improvement in the jobs market.  Metals should have and would have most likely rebounded this morning until the lackluster release of Chinese manufacturing sent metal traders running for the hills. China manufacturing growth fell to a two-month low as export orders swung to a decline, according to preliminary results from HSBC’s monthly PMI report issued this morning. The “flash” version of the HSBC/Markit China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index eased to 50.4, compared to last month’s 50.9 reading. The result was also well below the official government version of the PMI, which hit 51.4 in October. Among the sub-indexes, new export orders slid below the 50 mark dividing growth from contraction, while overall new orders rose, but at a slower rate than in October. Traders pay more attention to the HSBC private data release as the official numbers are always suspicious and have been fixed in the past.

Gold is heading for a significant decline in 2014, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report yesterday that outlined investment themes for next year. Bullion may drop to $1,050 by the end of 2014, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote. Prices slumped 26 percent this year, heading for the first annual loss since 2000, amid expectations that the Fed will trim its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases as growth picks up. Policy makers expected data would signal further improvement in the labor market and “thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months,” according to minutes of the Fed’s October meeting released yesterday.

The Comex stopped trading in December gold futures for about 20 seconds yesterday after the December contract fell about $11 within a minute before trading was suspended.

There is little data for traders to look at today, so markets are expected to be quiet with Chinese and the Bank of Japan decision behind the markets. This morning the BoJ held rates and policy. The US dollar is trading at 81.21 while the JPY is trading right on the 100 price.

 

Fed Chairwoman Nominee Sends Precious and Industrial Metals Climbing

Fed Chairwoman Nominee Sends Precious and Industrial Metals Climbing
Fed Chairwoman Nominee Sends Precious and Industrial Metals Climbing
Comments from soon to be Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, helped support precious metals yesterday. On Wednesday, Yellen’s three page prepared statement indicated that she would continue to support the current Bernanke, easy money policies after her appointment. On Thursday, Yellen was drilled by the US Senate Banking committee as she easily answered questions and comments and seemed sure to be headed towards approval. “This is a virtually unprecedented situation,” she said, referring to the 4 million Americans who have remained unemployed for more than six months.

“We know that those long spells of unemployment are particularly painful for households, impose great hardship and costs on those without work, on the marriages of those who suffer these long unemployment spells,” she added. “So I consider it imperative that we do what we can to promote a very strong recovery.” Asked about the risks of more stimulus, Yellen repeatedly told the senators she currently sees no major bubbles forming, including in the stock market and housing market.

Yellen’s testimony seemed to indicate that tapering at the December 18th meeting was not on the table giving traders direction. If confirmed, Yellen faces a daunting task: How to wean the economy off Fed stimulus at the right time. Yellen, however, seems convinced that the bond-buying program could still help the economy. The benefits continue to outweigh the costs, she said.

Gold traders seemed relaxed by her comments and have continued to push up prices steadily over the past days. Gold is trading at 1288.00 in the Asian session this morning. Gold fluctuated near a one-week high as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintain stimulus. Billionaire investor John Paulson kept his holdings in the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund.

Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,288.. after climbing to $1,294.42 yesterday, the highest since Nov. 8. Prices that are set for a third weekly loss advanced 1.5 percent. Silver added 66 points this morning to trade at 20.788 but remains well below its 22 price range. Silver has been able to gain on the back of gold, as precious metals are on the upswing. Copper also rose y 17 points but remains weak at 3.182 as traders remain uneasy about the future of Chinese economic policies. Copper rose for a second day, paring a weekly decline, after Federal Reserve Chairman Nominee Janet Yellen backed U.S. stimulus measures until the economy improves. Copper’s losses were however limited after upbeat readings from China boosted the industrial metal’s demand prospects in its number one consumer. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, consumer inflation jumped by an annualized 3.2% last month, slightly up from September’s 3.1% advance. Despite trailing the median estimate of analysts surveyed by both Reuters and Bloomberg for a 3.3% surge, last month’s reading matched February’s 10-month high. The recovery of the US dollar is also keeping copper at its lowest trading range in month. The US dollar is trading at 81.10 while platinum gained $7.70 to trade at 1454.70 and palladium added $3.90 to trade at 742.80

 

 

Base Metal, Precious Metals and Industrial Metals React To Janet Yellen

Base Metal, Precious Metals and Industrial Metals React To Janet Yellen
Base Metal, Precious Metals and Industrial Metals React To Janet Yellen

Base metals continue to trade with a negative bias. Silver and copper have rebounded from recent lows this morning after taking major tumbles this week. Silver has added 356 points to trade at 20.789 well below its have range at $22.00 while copper rebounded adding 20 points to trade at 3.179 below its near term trading range at 3.25. Industrial metals have been steadily falling on worries from China and the possibility of tapering of asset purchases by the US FOMC in December.

Copper tumbled to its lowest level in 90 days after a Federal Reserve official raised the prospect of a retreat from monetary stimulus next month. Uncertainties about policy reforms in China and weak eurozone factory output also weighed on the metal. Copper prices fell on Wednesday as disappointment from the Chinese Communist Party meet and looming market surplus weighed on prices. Eurozone industrial production fell by 0.5% from growth of 1% in the previous month, which also hurt base metals prices. Base metals are expected to move down as investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of Yellen’s testimony and Eurozone GDP data today.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 2 percent at $6,980 a ton, after touching a low of $6,956, the weakest since Aug. 7. Copper extended losses from the previous session when it broke through its 100-day moving average of $7,118. The move lower sent the market crashing through the floor of a $7,000 to $7,420 range it had held since early August.

Gold saw a mini rally in the Asian session this morning gaining $15.50 as traders took advantage of the lower US dollar and cheap prices to buy up the shiny metal. Gold prices fell on Wednesday as gains in US equities dented gold’s safe haven appeal. However, a weaker dollar after the Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen supported Fed’s stimulus program and said that the economy and the labor market were performing far short of their potential while inflation remained low limited the downside in prices. Yellen is likely to testify before the Senate Banking Committee today. Gold prices are expected to remain in range today as investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of Yellen’s testimony which would give cues on the Fed’s future course of monetary policy.

The other factor pushing up gold is demand from China, where volumes on the Shanghai exchange were near a month’s high on Wednesday. A bearish factor could be paring of holdings in gold in exchange-traded funds. SPDR Trust, the world’s biggest gold exchange-traded funds, reported that the holdings fell to 865.71 tons.

After a fairly muted response at the beginning of the week, platinum prices were boosted by South African supply concerns before better-than-expected US economic data towards the end of the week acted to dampen prospects for platinum. Platinum has climbed $10.95 this morning to trade at 1443.70. A wage-related strike called by the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) at Northam Platinum saw 7,000 workers down tools at the company’s Zondereinde operations over the weekend. Initially this seemed to have little impact as the platinum price started the week at $1455, lower than it had ended the previous week. Palladium gained $4.80 as auto sales were once again climbing in the US. Palladium proved more resilient, shrugging off news that US car and light-truck sales in October declined to the lowest annualized rate since April.

Metals Traders Waiting For Chinese Leaders Reforms

Metals Traders Waiting For Chinese Leaders Reforms
Metals Traders Waiting For Chinese Leaders Reforms
After taking a major tumble on Friday, gold remains directionless adding just 0.15% in the Asian session to trade at 1286.50 falling steadily at the end of the week after the US nonfarm payroll report showed that the US had created in excess of 200k jobs against a forecast of 120k, this was followed by a revision of the previous jobs added upwards. Earlier in the week, US data showed that its GDP was much stronger than forecast printing at 2.8% while expected to only grow by 2%. This raised the possibility that the US Federal Reserve might move up its timetable to being tapering their asset purchases.

On the other side, unemployment ticked up a drop, which is the gauge that the FOMC has set for changing its policy. Despite the stronger than expected job growth, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3 percent in October from 7.2 percent in September. The modest increase by the unemployment rate, which matched economist estimates, largely reflected the way furloughed federal workers were counted in the household survey.

The major event from last week was the ECB’s decision to reduce its cash rate to its lowest level of 0.25%; this news pulled down precious metals prices and rallied the US dollar against the Euro. This week traders will be closely watching U.S industrial production, German GDP for the third quarter, China’s new loans, U.S federal budget balance, Yellen testifies, ECOFIN summit, and U.S. jobless claims. The price of gold decreased by 2.19% last week; moreover, the average price reached $1,306.70 which was 2.24% below last week’s average rate. Gold ended the week at $1,284.50. Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust ETF rose for the first week in the past ten consecutive weeks.  Nonetheless, during the month, the ETF’s gold holdings decreased by 0.41%. The ETF was also down by 35.71% for the year (up-to-date). Current gold holdings are at 868.418 tons. If the ETF’s gold holdings continue to pick up, this may signal the demand for gold as an investment is picking up.

Strong Chinese industrial production and export data has helped lift market sentiment, but the euro remained under pressure as looming deflation fears in the eurozone saw the ECB cut rates to a record low 0.25 percent last week. Inflation remains below expectations in the US, Japan and the Eurozone, which is pressurizing the prices of gold, which is a hedge against inflation.

Silver and copper are trading in the green this morning, silver is holding at 21.362 up by 45 points and copper is at 3.262 adding 4 points. Platinum and palladium are both in the red, fighting the trends. Platinum is trading at 1443.85 while platinum is down 2.50 at 756.50. Copper prices rose on Friday on optimism over positive Chinese trade data. However, a stronger dollar after US jobs report limited the upside in prices. China’s inflation climbed to 3.2%, raising fears of another tightening the central bank to curb credit supply and control inflation. However, Chinese factory output rose by 10.3% while fixed asset investment also rose to 20.1%. Base metals are expected to remain in range as investors would await the announcement of reforms at the Chinese Communist Party meet ending on November 12 to gauge the growth expectations for China. Tomorrow will be a big day for metals and commodities.

Copper Takes A Big Fall While Gold Remains Flat

Copper Takes A Big Fall While Gold Remains Flat
Copper Takes A Big Fall While Gold Remains Flat

Gold is trading at 1316.20 down by $1.60 in the Asian session while the US dollar holds completely flat. Silver eased by 33 points as Chinese economic worries continue to weigh on the metals markets. After six days of a losing streak, gold rebounded on short covering. Earlier, the yellow metal declined on speculation that recent upbeat economic figures from the US will force the Federal Reserve to pare stimulus measures. Yesterday, an economic release from the world’s largest economy showed that the service sector in the region expanded faster than previously anticipated. On the other hand, the dollar index continued to trade near multi week highs. While the market mood was rather mixed-up owing to uncertainty lingering in the market over the future of the Fed massive bond buying program, investors’ attention has now essentially shifted towards a slew of economic releases scheduled for the latter half of this week. These key releases include the ECB rate announcement and US GDP on Thursday, Chinese trade balance and US nonfarm payrolls on Friday as well as Chinese inflation and industrial production data on Saturday, which will spur wide swings in the market.

The U.S. economy probably grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with a 2.5 percent gain in the previous period, shows a Bloomberg survey before today’s report. Economists predict data Nov. 8 will show payrolls climbed by 120,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous month. The U.S. economy probably grew at a 2 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with a 2.5 percent gain in the previous period, shows a Bloomberg survey before today’s report. Economists predict data Nov. 8 will show payrolls climbed by 120,000 in October and the unemployment rate increased to 7.3 percent from 7.2 percent in the previous month. Gold fell to $1,305.98 on Nov. 5, the lowest since Oct. 17, after the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. non-manufacturing index rose. The central bank won’t reduce stimulus until March, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey Oct. 17-18.

Copper gained by 5 points to trade at 3.247 remaining well below its 3.36-3.30 range. Copper climbed after touching  the lowest price in almost a month before the release of U.S. data that may help investors gauge when the Federal Reserve will begin tapering bond purchases and ahead of Chinese trade figures. China, the world’s largest copper user, is scheduled to announce its October trade balance tomorrow, followed by inflation and industrial production data on Nov. 9. Chinese Communist Party leaders will meet for four days starting Nov. 9 to discuss policies. Data firm Markit said its October composite purchasing managers index for the euro area slipped to 51.9 from 52.2 in September, but was revised up slightly from an earlier reading. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. In addition, the services PMI for the eurozone fell to 51.6 in October from September’s 52.2, but topped expectations of 50.9. And UK industrial production for September rose 0.9 per cent on the month versus expectations of a 0.5 per cent increase. The positive data limited the metal losses on Wednesday. Platinum climbed this morning to 1466.55 while palladium dipped by $2.10 to 762.80

Metals and Energy Commodities Respond Mixed After Fed’s & Data

Metals and Energy Commodities Respond Mixed After Fed's & Data
Metals and Energy Commodities Respond Mixed After Fed's & Data
The commodity markets seem to be making sense once again, crude oil has declined to 96.54 a good range based on supply and demand and the easing of geopolitical tensions. Natural gas is at 3.641 a bit high as it should find a bottom to sit between seasons but we will see what will happen after the EIA releases this week’s inventory report later today.  Gold continues to make big moves up and down but keeps ending at the same place, trading at 1338.90 down a bit over $10 in the Asian session. Whiles is cousin silver dropped 565 points to 22.418 taking a very hard fall after a major climb on hopes of increased demands for industrial metals. Copper on the other hand seems to be trading in its longer term range at 3.306 after falling to 3.26 last week and recovering above the 3.32 price yesterday on lower inventories. Copper hit a 1-week high as the Federal Reserve’s decision to retain its stimulus efforts for the U.S. economy pushed several commodities higher.

Overall US data has been weak reducing demand for most of these commodities as the Fed sees an ongoing slow and sluggish “moderate” recovery. The Fed met expectations by leaving its stimulus program unchanged at its policy meeting, though it did surprise with its upbeat assessment of the economy. Some investors were looking for the central bank to downgrade its economic outlook after the government shutdown and budget impasse earlier this month.

Yesterday the Energy Administration released its week crude oil report which showed   that crude supplies rose 4.1 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 25. Analysts polled by Platts were looking for a climb of 3.5 million barrels but the American Petroleum Institute had reported late Tuesday a much bigger 5.9 million-barrel climb. Gasoline supplies fell by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles shed 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said. Gasoline stockpiles were expected to rise 1.5 million barrels, while forecasts called for a decline of 1.2 million barrels for distillates.

Copper rallied in European trading on bets the Fed will stay its course on the U.S. stimulus. The metal closed the New York session up too and remained positive in post-settlement trade after the Fed affirmed at the end of a 2-day policy meeting that there will be no slowdown in its bond-buying.    Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended up more than 1 percent at $7,298 a ton, versus Tuesday’s close of $7,200, but down from a one-week high of $7,299.50 hit earlier in the session. Silver, used heavily in industrial applications despite being grouped in precious metals alongside gold, was the CRB’s biggest gainer of the day, rising more than 2 percent.

Platinum eased to 1465.10 following precious metals down while palladium gave up $1.80 to trade at 744.50. Brent oil eased by 35 cents to trade at 109.60 with the spread widening to over $13.00

 

Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle

Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle
Gold Up, Copper Down Leaving Silver Stuck In The Middle
In a surprise market turn around this week gold continued to climb trading on a high note through Thursday to trade just under 1350.00. In the Asian session this morning traders are booking profits and pushing down prices, gold is trading at 1342.90 down by $7.40. On Thursday, gold rallied to its highest close on the New York Mercantile Exchange since Sept. 19, getting a boost from improved manufacturing data out of China, a massive gold buyer. The overall metals market is mixed this morning as platinum fell $6.30 to $1,449.90 an ounce, while palladium slipped 89 cents to $747 an ounce. High-grade copper for managed to hold steady at $3.27 a pound. Strong Chinese HSBC manufacturing data had little effect on industrial metals, after China reveal a surge in bad debts by local banks which might cause the government to tighten lending conditions. Gold headed for a second weekly advance as weaker-than-forecast U.S. data and concern that growth was hurt by a government shutdown boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will delay a cut in stimulus. Investors await economic data from the U.S. and Germany due later today. U.S. durable goods orders may have risen 2.3 percent last month, after gaining 0.1 percent in August, according to a Bloomberg survey. Germany’s Ifo institute business climate index probably rose this month to the highest since April 2012, according to another survey.

Gold lost 20 percent this year amid speculation the Fed will curb stimulus measures. More Americans than forecast filed jobless claims, data showed yesterday. The 16-day government shutdown that started Oct. 1 probably trimmed 0.25 percentage point from fourth-quarter growth and cost 120,000 jobs this month, according to Jason Furman, President Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser. Traders will focus on the FOMC meeting scheduled for the middle of the coming week although odds are that the Fed will keep everything as is until their December meeting after they access the damage caused by the government shutdown. Fed policy makers unexpectedly refrained from slowing the monthly $85 billion bond purchases last month and economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18 said the central bank probably will delay a reduction in the stimulus until March.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Oct. 19, the Labor Department said yesterday, compared with 340,000 forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Copper is doing just the opposite of gold which leaves silver stuck in the middle. Silver is trading at 22.663 down 159 points. Copper is poised for a weekly decline amid concern that China is tightening monetary policies to curb inflation, reducing the demand outlook for industrial metals from the biggest consumer.

The contract for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $7,182 a metric ton. The price has fallen 0.9 percent this week, set for the first monthly drop in four months. The benchmark money-market rate in China yesterday jumped the most since June as officials’ drained cash from the financial system amid a sign of a recovery in the second-biggest economy. Manufacturing strengthened more than economists estimated this month and inflation rose to the highest level since February.

Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green

Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green
Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trading In The Green

Gold is trading in the green this morning holding near a 4 week high at 1336.00 as silver really shines adding 106 points to trade at 22.723 after the release of stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing data. Traders are beginning to pay very close attention to the Federal Reserve with the FOMC meeting next week. Gold has often tracked shifting expectations as to whether the US central bank would start reining in nearly five years of super-easy dollars, a measure which had sparked fears of inflation and encouraged investors to buy the precious metal. Prices sank to a near three-year low around $1,180 in late June on worries over the Fed’s plan to wind down the stimulus. Odds makers have put the possibility of tapering at this meeting close to 0, with poor jobs data and the government shutdown effects remaining unknown. The prospect of the Fed staying the course on its easy-money policies through year’s end sent the Dow Jones to a one-month high, market participants said. The blue-chip index gained 75.46 points, or 0.49%, to 15467.66 and is once again nearing record territory, and the S&P 500 finished at a fresh record close, up 10.01 points, or 0.57%, at 1754.67. Treasury yields sank to a three-month low on the report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, fell to 2.512%.

HSBC’s China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index showed activity in the nation’s manufacturing sector expanded more than expected in October, rising to a seven-month high. The initial October reading for China’s manufacturing activity came out at 50.9, compared with a final reading of 50.2 in September. The score was a seven-month high; above the 50 mark that separates expansion and contraction in factory activity. Copper made an amazing turnaround this morning after the data release adding 12 points to trade at 3.278 after suffering a huge drop on Wednesday. Copper futures sank 2% as concerns about the stability of China’s financial system sparked worries over the country’s future demand for copper. China’s short-term interest rates jumped to levels not seen since July as some companies tapped money markets to fund deadline tax payments and as worries spread about bad debts in the banking system, analysts at Scotiabank said in a note.

Adding to the tension, while China’s central bank refrained from removing liquidity from the domestic money market on Tuesday, authorities also avoided pumping liquidity into the system in recent days. The lack of open market activity is a sign of concern that tighter liquidity will hamper growth in the world’s second-largest economy, analysts said. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for about 40% of global copper demand, and fears of slower economic growth there contributed to a 16% drop in copper prices during the first half of 2013.

The weaker US dollar is also helping the metals markets to trade on a positive note this morning. Palladium rose by 1.50 to trade at 747.00 while Platinum added 9.30 to reach 1443.60.

Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat

Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat
Palladium Soars On Chinese Import Demand While Gold Remains Flat
Global focus will return to the US later today, as the US begins to release delayed data due to the budget crisis lasting from October 1, 2013. The 16 closure stopped the flow of data from most government agencies. US lawmakers managed to fund the government until early 2014 allowing agencies to reopen. Data will begin to flow today, with the US releasing the much watched nonfarm payroll report.  Gold has held steady as investors await US employment data, while palladium has rallied to an eight-week high amid hopes of stronger demand from China. Gold slumped 22 percent this year on expectations the Fed will slow its $85 billion-a-month of bond buying as the economy improves. Fed policy makers, who meet again Oct. 29-30 after unexpectedly maintaining stimulus at the last meeting, will make the first cut to buying in March, according to the median estimate of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18. A poll last month forecast the first reduction in December.

Gold on Monday rose $US1.20 or 0.1 per cent, to settle at $1,315.80 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold gave back yesterday gains to trade at 1314.80 in the Asian session. Many investors look to the employment gauge as a prognosticator of future monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve has said a stronger labour market is a key ingredient for winding down the central bank’s stimulus program. The program has buoyed gold prices by keeping interest rates low and burnishing the allure of zero-yielding assets such as precious metals. The weight of gold sales in China totaled 832 tons last year, the strong growth pushed greatly by sales of gold bars, sales of which rose 87 percent to nearly 279 tons. Jewelry sales rose 44 percent to 383.86 tons. At the same time, industrial use of gold fell 1.6 percent.

Palladium rose $US9.60, or 1.3 per cent, to settle at $US750.25 a troy ounce on the Nymex. This was the highest settlement since August 23. China, the world’s largest car market, stepped up its imports of palladium by 25 per cent in September from a year earlier to 62,500 ounces, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Palladium is widely used in car exhaust filters. Still, with prices hovering near $US750 a troy ounce, palladium futures are likely to face pressure as Russia, the world’s largest producer of the metal, steps up sales of its government stockpile.

Copper climbed on the LME after imports of refined metal into China reached a 19-month high, indicating continued demand in the world’s biggest consumer. Shipments jumped 32 percent from August to 347,305 metric tons last month, customs data showed today. That was the highest level since February 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Copper also gained on expectations the Federal Reserve will delay slowing economic stimulus in the U.S., the second-largest consumer of the metal. Copper is trading at 3.30 in the Asian session this morning. Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME fell for a 33rd straight session to 494,850 tons on a drop in Malaysia’s Johor. Orders to remove the metal from warehouses climbed 2.4 percent, the most since June, to 255,750 tons on a gain in New Orleans

 

 

 

Gold Continues To Trade In The Red Along With Metals

Gold Continues To Trade In The Red Along With Metals
Gold Continues To Trade In The Red Along With Metals
Gold is down in the Asian session trading at 1279.90 off by $2.40 as President Obama signs the deal to reopen the US government and to fund the debt ceiling through February 2014 easing global tensions. The US theatrics played out just as expected, no default and no accomplishments. US politicians simply kicked the problems down the road. The new agreement sets up a committee to resolve the budget by mid-December. Gold traders seemed to have little reaction to the ending of this crisis. Traders quickly turned to sights to the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. There is little likelihood that the Fed will announce and tapering and many Fed speakers have said that this crisis has pushed tapering thoughts towards June 2014, as some suggest that the Fed will have to help jumpstart the economy with additional stimulus. Yesterday any sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of decline in SPDR gold holdings by 0.4 percent to 885.53 tons. Strength in the DX also restricted upside movement in prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1286.90 and closed at $1281.

Yesterday the Federal Reserve released their “Beige Book” which serves as a guide for the FOMC ahead of their meeting and their decision on monetary policy. The economic snapshot was prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and is based on anecdotal information from other regional banks gathered through Oct. 7. It comes two weeks before the Fed’s Oct. 29 and 30 policy meeting and may be one of a diminished number of data points the central bank has to determine the state of the economy. The partial government shutdown since Oct. 1 has shuttered the agencies that produce major economic reports. Already, the Labor and Commerce departments have postponed publishing data covering employment, inflation from consumer-price data, and retail sales, among others.

The Fed determined at its last policy meeting that the economy still needed support and continued its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying stimulus program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs and encouraging hiring and spending. The central bank pointed to risks and uncertainty in the economy as reasons to leave its program unchanged, according to minutes released last week.

Copper fell sharply on Wednesday, as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at 3.269 a pound during European morning trade, down 1.15%. Industrial metals prices rose yesterday on signs U.S. politicians would agree a last-minute deal to prevent federal debt default. With the deal done, copper remains weak giving up 12 points this morning. China copper smelters have lowered their expectations on copper treatment and refining charges for term imports of concentrates in 2014 as expected supply growth may be smaller than they had anticipated.

Silver is trading at 21.275 down by 90 pips while platinum gained 5 pips to trade at 1399.90 and palladium eased by $1.80 to 715.90. Traders are hoping that US data that was delayed by the government shutdown will begin to be released as early as Friday.

Gold and Metals At The Mercy Of Washington Politics

Gold and Metals At The Mercy Of Washington Politics
Gold and Metals At The Mercy Of Washington Politics
Gold recovered in after-hours trading as US politicians close meetings for the day on a positive note. Lawmakers from both sides of the bench are all saying that progress has been made and a final deal to avert a government default and to reopen government agencies is nearing and the US will avoid a default. Gold December 2013 fell 0.3% to 1,273.2 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, silver futures slid 0.7% to USD 21.19 per troy ounce. Gold slipped for a fifth session out of seven on Wednesday as safe-haven bids slowed on hopes U.S. lawmakers would hash out a last-minute agreement to raise the debt ceiling before a Thursday deadline.

Fitch Ratings warned it could cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States from AAA, citing the political brinkmanship over raising the debt ceiling. While “Reckless” U.S. fiscal policy will likely force the Federal Reserve to stand pat on monetary policy this month, said Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher in a speech late last evening.

Gold premiums in India, the world’s biggest buyer of the precious metal, hit a record $100 an ounce, about 8 percent over London prices, on a shortage of supplies to meet festival demand, traders said on Tuesday. Chinese gold output rose 8.2% to 270.167 tons from January to August 2013, year over year, according to data from the China Gold Association. The association also said that August production was down slightly to 37.978 tons from 39.367 tons in July. China is the world’s largest gold producer for the 6th year in a row and is on track to soon overtake India as the top consumer. In 2012, Chinese gold consumption rose 9.35% to 832 tons. And in the first half of 2013, consumption jumped a remarkable 54% year over year. The boost in demand has been credited in large part to Chinese weddings, which account for roughly 50% of all Chinese domestic bullion consumption. Chinese and Indian customs is to give items of gold for wedding and personal holding of gold jewelry as a sign of wealth.

Unfortunately for gold investors, ETF’s are selling off the precious metal holding at a record pace which continues to weigh on the value of gold. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against economic turmoil, and prices have generally pointed lower in recent weeks as investors bet that politicians would avert a breach of the U.S. borrowing limit. But gold prices pushed higher in after-hours trade following reports that a Senate effort to craft a bipartisan plan had stalled. Futures snapped as high as $1,287.70 an ounce, a rise of 0.9%, before paring those gains. Thursday is the deadline set by the Treasury Department to raise the federal borrowing limit. The markets are still unsure if there is an actual movement forward or backward (on the shutdown),” a CME Group analyst wrote. “However, if it appears that the U.S. is likely to encounter a default, gold prices might return to a safe-haven status.”

In other metals trading, December high-grade copper lost about one cent to $3.30 a pound. January platinum climbed $3.10, or 0.2%, to $1,386.50 an ounce and December palladium added $1.65, or 0.2%, to $707.95 an ounce 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper and Palladium All Trading In The Green

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper and Palladium All Trading In The Green
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper and Palladium All Trading In The Green

Gold prices closed higher as a protracted US government shutdown supported metal prices. Meanwhile, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged at 899.99 tons on Friday, which also aided prices. Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust ETF dropped again for the fifth consecutive week.  During the past several weeks, the ETF’s gold holdings declined by 2.28%. The ETF was also down by 33.37% since the beginning of the year (up-to-date). Current gold holdings are at 899.98 tons – the lowest level in years. If the ETF’s gold holdings keep falling, this will signal the demand for gold as an investment is further softening. However, a stronger dollar limited gains. Going ahead, markets will closely track developments related to the US government shutdown for further cues Gold is trading at 1327.10 up $2 in the Asian session after closing at 1325 on Monday.  Precious metals moved up as investors assessed the impact of a lower dollar after politicians in Washington showed no signs of making progress to resolve the US budget standoff. The government shutdown has gone for a week and could continue until the Senate and Congress reach an agreement with the President regarding next year’s budget. This situation resulted in no government publications to be released such as non-farm payroll. This alone could also affect FOMC members to hold off their decision about tapering until they will have clear data regarding the progress of the U.S economy. Moreover, this shutdown could eventually play in favor of bullion investors: The uncertainty around the U.S budget and the debt ceiling could pull up the demand for safe haven investments such as gold and silver.
 
The progress of the U.S economy may also affect the forex and commodities markets: Next week, the consumer sentiment, and jobless claims reports will be published. If these reports don’t meet expectations, they could pull up gold and silver prices.

Silver has surprised traders climbing above the 22 price level, trading at 22.39 in the Asian session on Tuesday, while copper recovers by 3 points but remains under the 3.30 level at 3.299. Markets are waiting for updated Chinese data due this week but continue to be weak after the IMF downgraded growth in China for 2013-2014.

Platinum prices and, mining shares are forecast to start picking up as a large inventory works its way out of the system, SBG Securities said on Monday. In its quarterly report on the platinum group metals market the report argued the price of platinum was behaving in a manner that showed a market with large stockpiles. The above-ground inventory of platinum was estimated at 1,153 days worth of consumption but a large portion of this was tightly held, leaving an excess of 305 days’ worth, which would contract at an accelerated rate over the next two years, they said. Platinum is trading at 1404395 up by $2.30 and Palladium is following cues to trade at 705.80

Precious Metal Ignore Politics

gold silver copper bnsnlaPrecious metals are trading positive note this morning with gold climbing just a few dollars to trade at 1329.10 well within its current range and silver is trading at 21.735 up by 27 points. Precious metals seem to be immune to the political stage paying no attention to the budget and debt ceiling negotiations, and debate. Late on Monday night, the Senate rejected the last stopgap proposal to keep the government open and operating as President Obama ordered government offices to prepare for shutdowns beginning today. Gold prices fell on Monday as decision on US debt ceiling was awaited after the Senate rejected a House proposal to delay the Health care program for a year. Gold prices ended the second quarter yesterday, gaining 8% after a drop of 23% in the previous quarter. China is likely to ease restrictions on individuals for buying gold and will allow more firms to trade gold. However, physical demand from China will be absent this week due to the holidays. Gold shipments in India stuck in customs are likely to be cleared today while some bankers resume imports. Gold prices are expected to remain in range as US lawmakers proceed towards government shutdown, supporting gold prices. Overall there the effects cancelled each other leaving the markets neutral. Platinum and palladium were also immune trading in the green this morning but only by small amounts with platinum at 1409.80 and palladium at 725.40.

China released its official government PMI data which seemed to have little effects on the market after the release of the HSBC data earlier. The official release showed that manufacturing met expectations at 51.5 which were fairly close to the HSBC numbers. Copper prices remained flat on Monday ahead of US decision on government spending. China’s manufacturing PMI came close to expectations at 51.1 from 51 in August. Chinese markets will remain closed for a week starting today for Golden Week Holidays. SHFE will also remain closed. Japanese Manufacturing index rose to 12 from 7 in the previous month. We expect copper prices to move down in absence of demand from China. US, UK and Euro zone manufacturing PMI would be closely monitored. Copper is trading in the green this morning as the US dollar weakened after the Senate was unable to get a final approval on stopgap measures to keep the US up and running. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.1 percent in yesterday’s trade taking cues from positive economic data from the country. Further, rising concerns regarding the US debt ceiling which lead to potential threat of shutdown in US government exerted downside pressure on the currency, which has helped metals gain as the cheap dollar makes them a more attractive investment. 

Metals In The Morning – Chinese Data & Fed Speakers In View

Metals In The Morning - Chinese Data & Fed Speakers In View
Metals In The Morning - Chinese Data & Fed Speakers In View
Precious metals spent last week on a roller coaster ride all on hopes and dreams of Fed tapering. Those dreams were dashed on Wednesday after Mr. Bernanke and team, held rates and policy in place for the time being. Gold is down at 1320.80 falling close to $12 in the Asian session to start the week. Silver fell harder to trade at 21.473 giving up 2% this morning. Platinum and palladium diverged with platinum trading at 1429.60 slightly in the red and palladium gaining 30 cents to trade at 717.10. Copper is the surprise this morning as industrial metals do not seem to be responding to positive data from China. Copper is down 33 points after the data release to trade at 3.272.

Precious metals slumped as comments from a slate of Federal Reserve officials cause traders to reassess their expectations for the duration of the central bank’s bond-buying program. Gold had surged by nearly five per cent during the previous session, the largest rally in percentage terms since March 2009.

Bearish gold traders scrambled to close out their bets on lower prices following the Fed’s decision late Wednesday to leave its $US85 billion-a-month bond-buying program unchanged.

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, said on Bloomberg TV on Friday that “a small taper is possible in October”. Bullard also said the Fed’s move this week to hold to the pace of bond purchases was a “close decision”.  Also on Friday, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said she was worried that the Fed’s ongoing efforts to stimulate the economy fail to account for economic progress already made. George was the lone dissenting vote at the Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday.

Indian gold imports could fall during this year, which may also curb down the rally of gold prices. According to one report, India’s gold imports may fall by 11% (y-o-y). Conversely, the Rupee gained more than 8.9% of its value in the recent month. If the Rupee continues its upward trend, this could pull up gold and silver prices. In China, the ongoing recovery of the economy along with the strong demand for gold and silver are likely to keep the prices of gold and silver from further falling.  China’s economy showed new signs of strength in September as an initial gauge of manufacturing activity rose to a-six month high The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.2 in September compared with a final reading of 50.1 in August, HSBC Holdings PLC said on Monday.

Lastly gold holdings of SPDR gold trust ETF slipped again for the third consecutive week.  During the month, the ETF’s gold holdings fell by 1.18%. The ETF was also down by 32.62% since the beginning of 2013 (up-to-date). Current gold holdings are at 910.19 tons. If the ETF’s gold holdings keep falling, this will signal that the demand for gold as an investment is weakening.

Industrial metals prices edged lower after hitting their highest in almost a month as investors, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to stick to its stimulus program, shifted focus back to fragile fundamentals but declines were limited by Chinese data this showing that manufacturing rose to a six-month high in Sep, signaling that a rebound in the Chine’s economy is gaining steam. The preliminary reading of 51.2 for PMI by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a 50.9 by Bloomberg. The gauge was at 50.1 in Aug.

Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300

Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300
Gold Surprises Traders And Falls Below $1300
With the big day upon us, markets are expected to remain stable until the FOMC announcement due late in the US trading session. As traders positioned themselves ahead of the announcement the question of whether or not the Fed will taper its monetary policy seems to be all but decided. The question seems to remain, exactly how much will the Fed cut. Traders are making a leap of faith ahead of the actual announcement. Gold took a major tumble falling below the all important 1300 level to trade at 1297.20 this morning down by $12. Gold hovered just above a five-week low yesterday as traders waited for guidance on when the US Federal Reserve will begin tapering its massive economic stimulus. Bullion has lost more than 20 percent of its value this year as a recovering US economy has dented its safe-haven appeal and raised fears the US central bank would scale back its commodities-friendly bond purchases. Traders said prices would find their next support level at $1,270-$1,280 an ounce.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, were unchanged for a second day at 911.12 metric tons yesterday. Assets have shrunk 33 percent this year, wiping more than $34 billion from the value of the fund, as the global economy recovers and inflation fails to accelerate. The U.S. consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent in August from July, compared with economists’ estimates for a 0.2 percent gain, data showed yesterday. Gold futures had risen above $1,315 an ounce after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on Monday dropped out of the race to become the head of the Fed. Summers was widely viewed as more likely to push for a faster end to the central bank’s easy-money policies that have been credited for supporting gold prices and weighing on the dollar.

Gold, often seen as a hedge against inflation and a slowing economy, benefited when central banks around the world launched stimulus measures to support their economies. The metal hit an all-time high of about $1,920 an ounce in 2011. But this year several analysts have cut their forecasts for gold prices in anticipation of the U.S. central bank curbing its stimulus measures. Goldman Sachs expects prices to drop to $1,050 by the end of next year. Due to the volatility in prices, physical demand has failed to pick up rapidly in key consumers India and China. Expectations that prices could fall further once the Fed announces a cut in stimulus have also restrained purchases.

Silver for immediate delivery slid 1.2 percent to $21.4763, dropping for a third day. Platinum declined as much as 0.6 percent to $1,414.55 an ounce, the lowest level since July 26. Palladium decreased 1 percent to $697.53 an ounce, halting a three-day increase. The overall metals pack is trading on a negative note with little data or guidance today. Copper eased by 3 points to trade at 3.222. Today trading will be flat as traders await Mr. Bernanke’s decision later in the day.

Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed

Gold is trading at 1355.50 down by $8.30 this morning, while silver continued to ease trading below the $23 price level at 22.943. Copper tumbled along with the rest of the metals as sentiment shifted. Precious metals have been trading in the red as tensions over Syria continue to ease. Palladium is trading at 688.90 after trading above 700 yesterday. Platinum fell by $7.50 to trade at 1467.65. The US dollar is also trading in the red, at 81.63. Traders shifted investments yesterday to equities as President Obama asked congress to delay their vote on military action in Syria.

Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed
Precious Metals Trading In The Red Ahead Of The Fed

Gold prices increased on Tuesday by around 0.2 percent on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings which stood at 917.13 tons. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1367.9 and closed at $1366.10 in yesterday’s trading session.

Precious metal traders are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC meeting which will begin on the 17th. Stanley Druckenmiller, who heads one of the hedge-fund industry’s best long-term track records of the past three decades, said it would be a “big deal” for financial markets if the Fed Reserve were to completely end its asset purchases as outlined over the next 12 month. Gold has declined 19 percent this year amid expectations that the Fed will pare its $85 billion a month of bond-buying as the economy improves. While data today may show U.S. jobless claims rose for the first time in three weeks, a Bloomberg survey on Sept. 6 showed that the central bank will taper its quantitative easing by $10 billion at the Sept. 17-18 meeting. 

Gold prices fell as tensions in Syria eased after speech by US President Obama showed a diplomatic route along with Russia after Syria agreed to surrender its chemical weapons. Upcoming Fed meeting also raised fear about bond tapering which hurt gold prices further. GFMS in its report yesterday said that gold prices will contract further in 2014. Global gold demand will fall to 2,237 tons in the second half from 2,309 tons in the same period a year earlier and 2,533 tons in the first six months as bar buying drops from a record and central banks add less, Thomson Reuters GFMS said. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, were unchanged for a second day at 917.13 metric tons yesterday. Demand from India is seen surging as festival season approaches. Gold prices are expected to move down as easing tensions in Syria, stabilizing economy across the globe and fear of US tapering its bond buying can push gold prices further down.

 

 

 

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper
Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis September 12, 2013 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 23.133 recovering some of yesterday’s losses to trade at 23.133, copper climbed also to trade at 3.287. Other precious metals such as platinum gained slightly reaching 1477.65 along with palladium which gained over 1% to trade at 700.40. Silver prices decreased by 3.04 percent in Yesterday’s trading session on the back of decline in Spot gold prices coupled with downside in the base metal packs. Further, expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on the back of strong economic data from china, weakness in DX along with rise in risk appetite in the global markets.

Silver prices should trade on the negative note on the back of expectation among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying programme soon. Further, expectation of weak economic data from UK may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments may keep prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp downside in the prices.

Base Metals on LME traded on negative note on the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal reserve may start reducing bond buying program soon. However, strong economic data from China along with the rise in risk appetite in the global markets cushioned sharp fall in the prices. LME Copper decreased by 0.43 percent

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 11, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 11

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions 

15.2

 

7.2 

 

5.0 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

4.70%

 

 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.1%

 

1.2% 

 

2.2% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-32.6K

 

-22.0K 

 

-36.3K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

2.060%

 

 

 

1.800% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Portuguese CPI (YoY) 

0.2%

 

0.6% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Current Account (EUR) 

-178.00

 

-11.00 

 

574.00

   

 silver 0911bnsnla

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 12

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

1.8%

 

09:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.5%

-2.1%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.1%

0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.2%

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

328K

323K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2960K

2951K

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-152.0B

-97.6B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 UK

Sep 12 15:00 US

Sep 12 15:30 Italy

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 10:00 Belgium

Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling

Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling
Gold Traders Watch The FOMC And Look Forward To US Debt Ceiling
Wall Street climbed, extending the longest winning streak for the S&P’s 500 Index since July, as data showed China’s economy is improving amid signs of easing tensions over Syria. Gold continued to tumble as global tensions eased after President Obama called for a pause on authorizing a military strike on Syria, easing concern that a conflict will disrupt Middle East. Gold is trading at 1366.80 tumbling from a weekly high just under the 1400 price level. Gold swung between gains and losses, touching the lowest price in three weeks, after U.S. President Barack Obama asked Congress to delay a vote on military action against Syria, diminishing haven demand. Gold has retreated from a three-month high at the end of August as political tension in the Middle East eased. Obama has asked Congress to postpone a vote on military action while he pursues a diplomatic solution for Syria in light of Russia’s proposal for international control of the regime’s chemical weapons, he said in an address to the nation yesterday. The U.S. said Syria’s government used the weapons last month against civilians and had threatened a punitive strike in response.

With Syria moving off the front page traders are once again focusing on next week’s FOMC meeting. Traders are keenly watching US data for signs of what to expect from the Fed. Job openings in the U.S. fell in July to the lowest level in six months, signaling uneven progress in employment. The number of positions waiting to be filled declined by 180,000 to 3.69 mn, from a revised 3.87 mn the prior month that was weaker than initially reported. Gold has lost 19 percent this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will pare its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program as the economy improves. The Fed will taper asset purchases by $10 billion at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, according to a Sept. 6 Bloomberg survey, even after data that day showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than estimated in August.

Gold prices could rise if the Federal Open Market Committee does not trim its bond-buying program as much as market consensus expects, says B of A Merrill Lynch Global Research, according to kitco.com. The firm says expectations are that the Fed will taper its asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, by $10 billion to $15 billion. That view is priced into the market. “If the Fed is more dovish than that, i.e., tapers by less or delays tapering entirely, gold prices could rally in the short term. Yet, gains will in our view be limited, partially because real rates should continue trend higher in the coming quarters,” they say.

Traders are also closely watching the debt ceiling debate in the US which has been postponed several times since the “fiscal cliff” debates earlier in the year. The US could default on its obligations as early as Oct. 18 if Washington fails to agree on legislation to raise the government’s borrowing cap, a new study predicted on yesterday. The Bipartisan Policy Center analysis says the default date would come no later than Nov. 5 and that the govt would quickly fall behind on its payments, including Social Security benefits and military pensions. This could drive uncertainty back into the market and push gold prices upwards.

Silver is trading at 23.178 gaining 16 cents correcting its major tumble this week as Chinese data continues to support the metals pack. Copper is trading in the green at 3.279, while platinum gained over $12 to trade at 1486.15 and palladium added almost $6.00 to trade above the $700 price level.