E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 16280.50, Strengthens Over 16486.75

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening as investors look to extend December’s strong performance. The technology driven index is getting a boost from shares in heavyweight Tesla, which jumped after the electric carmaker posted bumper delivery numbers.

At 14:41 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16449.75, up 129.00 or +0.79%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $398.50, up $0.65 or +0.16%.

Tesla’s shares rose 6.9% in premarket trading after the company’s quarterly deliveries exceeded Wall Street estimates, riding out global chip shortages as it ramped up China production.

The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 28.

A trade through 16659.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 15492.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also down. This confirmed the shift in momentum. A trade through 16313.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 16567.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The minor range is 16659.50 to 16313.75, making its 50% level at 16486.75 new resistance.

The nearest support is a Fibonacci level at 16280.50, followed by a 50% level at 16130.00.

The short-term range is 15492.00 to 16659.50. Its retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16280.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16280.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 16486.75. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a quick rally into 16567.50. This is the last potential resistance before the 16659.50 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16280.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 16130.00 the next target.

If 16130 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into 16075.75 to 15938.00. Look for aggressive counter-trend buyers to come in on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 16505.25 Sets the Tone on Friday

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading flat shortly after the cash market opening as investors prepare to close out one of the best annual performances on record.

The tech-focused NASDAQ-100 Index is set to finish over 20% this year, putting it on track for its ninth annual gain in 10 years. Names like Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms and Tesla have led NASDAQ’s gains this year.

At 14:39 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 16453.50, up 23.25 or +0.14%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $400.14, down $1.41 or -0.35%.

This year’s strong gains came as the global economy began its recovery from the 2020 COVID lockdowns, while the Federal Reserve maintained supportive measures first implemented at the onset of the pandemic.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 28.

A trade through 16659.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 15492.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This confirms the shift in momentum. A trade through 16567.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15492.00. Its retracement zone at 16280.50 to 16130.00 is the nearest support.

The minor range is 15492.00 to 16659.50. Its retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00 is the primary downside target and value zone.

On the upside, minor resistance is a pivot at 16505.25.

Daily Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16505.25. I wouldn’t be surprised if we closed there.

Overcoming 16505.25 will indicate the presence of buyers with 16567.50 the next target. A sustained move under 16505.25 could trigger a break into 16280.50.

MANAMA Stocks Should Continue to Empower SPY, VOO and QQQ till 2024 and Beyond

These are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), NVDIA (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) which I have aggregated under the acronym of MANAMA. Three of the ETFs which own them are the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/30/49663886-16408833269688747.png

Source: Prepared by author

The funds hold these mega-cap tech stocks as part of their top holdings, with the exact percentage held out of total assets held varying and depending on the objectives of the individual fund managers. Looking at the last one-year period, the three have delivered performances of above 28%, with the SPY and VOO gaining 28.54% and 28.59% respectively, slightly outperforming QQQ at 28.31%. Now, the fact that SPY and VOO, despite holding companies in the non-tech sector like pharmaceuticals and financials have managed to deliver such gains normally associated with QQQ would tend to show that in addition to their individual portfolio specifications, they have also benefited from the “MANAMA factor”.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/30/49663886-16408833273404047.png

Source: Trading View

For this matter, both SPY and VOO are passive ETFs with expense ratios of just 0.09% and 0.03% respectively, far below the tech-heavy QQQ’s 0.20%.

The case for technology

One certainty is that tech has been growing since man invented fire and tools, and will continue to grow as long as he inhabits the earth. Starting with Microsoft, its current CEO Satya Nadella has successfully transformed his company from a traditional software company to one whose revenues are based on the cloud, and this, despite embracing the SaaS (software as a service) model after Amazon. The latter, known primarily for its online marketplace, continues to grow at a frantic pace. After having been the first to market the commoditized cloud services since 2006, Jeff Bezos’ company now aims to provide private 5G services with its usual “as-a-service” approach as well as launch its own constellation of communications satellites.

Now, the market size for 5G and related services should grow from $53 billion in 2020 to $249 billion by 2026, whereas for cloud computing, it should reach  947 billion from 445 billion in 2021. This rapidly expanding market should also benefit Google, with its AI focus.

As for Facebook, its name change into Meta Labs marks a shift in its CEO’s vision of the future, namely from a social networking company to one which is increasingly oriented towards virtual reality. Also, knowing Mark Zuckerberg failed attempt to launch a cryptocurrency sometime back, it is highly probable that FB will most likely acquire one of these blockchain-powered metaverse projects like Sandbox or Decentraland where goods ranging from virtual land to digital art are being exchanged for millions of dollars.

As for Apple, with its smartphone and forthcoming augmented reality devices, it should play a key role in the transition from the metaverse to the physical world and vice versa.

Metaverse demand and huge addressable markets

Now, in order to build smartphones, 5G equipment, electric cars, or cloud, you need powerful chips, produced by the likes of NVIDIA. The company through its GPU-based processors has a niche position among gamers as well as Bitcoin miners. This is a company that has been very innovative in the type of chips it produces and is expected to benefit significantly from metaverse demands as evidenced by its share price surging higher as shown in green (in the chart below), with the start of the surge coinciding with Facebook’s change of name.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/30/49663886-16408833275020514.png

Source: Trading View

In this respect, the global metaverse revenue opportunity could approach $800 billion in 2024 compared to about $500 billion in 2020, out of which $400 billion would be made of online games and the rest by opportunities in live entertainment and social media. Interestingly, one company which should benefit as people’s purchasing habits evolve into more “experiential events” is Amazon, which only saw only a 3.79% appreciation this year.

Valuations and key takeaways

Consequently, with addressable markets in their areas of operations expanding rapidly and big techs having the cash to make acquisitions to power on with growth, I see share prices continuing to rise well into 2024. As for valuations, I foresee a 25% upside for SPY, VOO, and QQQ by the end of next year, based on the forecast of analysts at Wedbush Securities, according to whom the NASDAQ will reach 19,000 by the end of 2022, on grounds that mega-caps benefiting from continued tech spending as there is more focus on digital platforms, both for work and entertainment purposes.

Finally, the first part of 2022 should be volatile for stocks in general due to inflationary pressures and this is likely to impact valuations, but I am positive on tech generally, more specifically on MANAMA’s stocks as they take on the task of converging our physical and virtual worlds through an evolution as to the way we interact socially, purchase goods, work and entertain ourselves.

 

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trade Through 16452.25 Confirms Reversal Top

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching higher early Wednesday after posting a potentially bearish closing price reversal top in the previous session. The move followed a test of its highest level since November 22.

The price action suggests investors may be booking profits and trimming positions ahead of the upcoming New Year holiday. Despite five days of higher highs and higher lows, trading volume is well-below average and expected to tail-off as we approach the weekend holiday.

At 02:59 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16537.25, up 49.25 or +0.30%. On Tuesday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $401.71, down $1.77 or -0.44%.

In stock related news, the index was led higher by Activision Blizzard Inc, Exelon Corp and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which gained 1.86%, 1.46% and 1.38%, respectively.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the formation of a closing price reversal top on Tuesday suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 16659.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Taking out 16452.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction into the retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00.

On the upside, the major target is the all-time high at 16768.00.

On the downside, the nearest support is a short-term retracement zone 16280.50 to 16130.00. This is followed by a minor retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00.

Combining these two retracement zones creates a support cluster at 16130.00 – 16075.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16556.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16556.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a test of 16659.50.

Taking out 16659.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the rally into 16768.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16555.75 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 16452.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at 16280.50, followed by 16130.00 – 16075.75.

Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on any pullback into support.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022

The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing up expectations of a Santa Rally. Yet, here we are with only five trading days before the end of 2021, and the US major indexes are nearing all-time highs again.

PREDICTIVE MODELING SHOWS A CONTINUED MELT-UP TREND THROUGH JAN/FEB 2022

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) Predictive Modeling system may hold the answers you are looking for. Let’s look at a few charts to prepare for what may unfold over the next 60+ days.

First, this SPY Weekly ADL chart highlights the range of potential outcomes going forward into March/April 2022. The further out we attempt to predict using this technique, the more opportunity exists for outlier events (unusual price trends/activity). Yet, the SPY ADL predictive modeling system suggests a very strong upward price trend in January/February 2022, with a possible narrowing of price in late February – just before another big move higher in March/April 2022.

There is an outlier trend that appears below the current price trend. So far, this outlier trend has not aligned with price action over the past 5+ weeks and shows an alternate support level near $430.

The ADL predictive modeling system suggests a broad market uptrend is likely in the SPY, with an initial target near $490 possibly being reached by early February. If Q4:2021 earnings come in strong and revenues continue to impress the markets, we may see a rally above the $490 level before the end of February 2022.

After the tightening of price near the end of February 2022, it appears the SPY will consolidate near $480, then enter another rally phase and attempt to rally above $500. This type of price action aligns with solid Q4:2021 expectations and continued Q1:2022 economic growth.

Chart

Description automatically generated

ADL PREDICTS QQQ WILL RALLY ABOVE $430 BY MARCH/APRIL 2022

This Weekly QQQ ADL Chart highlights a similar type of price trend compared to the SPY. The QQQ appears to have a more consistent upward trend bias with a fairly solid upward price channel trending through the first four months of 2022. It appears the QQQ will rally to levels above $420 by mid-February 2022, then stall for a few weeks, then resume a rally trend through most of March 2022 and into early April 2022. After mid-April 2022, it appears the QQQ will consolidate, again, near the $420~$425 level.

This ADL prediction suggests Technology, Healthcare, Consumer stables/discretionary, Real Estate, and other sectors will continue to do well in Q1:2022 and beyond. A rally of 7% to 10% in the first few months of 2022 may send the US markets dramatically higher throughout the rest of 2022 if economic growth stays strong.

A screenshot of a computer

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

The ADL predictive modeling system has proven to be a valuable tool in understanding what lies ahead for the markets. Not only does it show a range of potential outcomes and price targets, but it also helps us understand if and when price breaks beyond these ADL predictive ranges (which translates into a unique price anomaly).

Price anomalies happen. The COVID-19 price collapse represented a unique price anomaly in 2020. This event, somewhat like a Black Swan event, hit the markets hard and quickly sent prices tumbling. It is important to understand that these events can still happen in the future and can dramatically disrupt expected price trends.

Still, if the ADL predictive price trends continue to be accurate, it looks like Q1:2022 and Q2:2022 may continue to see moderate upward price trends with bouts of sideways volatility taking place. The range of the ADL predictive levels (the MAGENTA LINES) shows the type or expected volatility in the markets for Q1 and Q2. It appears volatility will stay elevated over the next 6+ months – so get ready for some big, explosive price trends.

Watch for the markets to continue to melt higher over the next few weeks as traders prepare for Q4:2021 earnings to start hitting in early January 2022. We may see the US markets start another big upside price trend – possibly breaking to new all-time highs soon enough.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT PREDICTIVE MODELING?

Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn about our Total ETF Portfolio (TEP) technology and how it can help you identify and trade better sector setups. We’ve built this technology to help us identify the strongest and best trade setups in any market sector. Every day, we deliver these setups to our subscribers along with the TEP system trades. You owe it to yourself to see how simple it is to trade 30% to 40% of the time to generate incredible results.

Have a great day!

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist

 

HACK: Massive Opportunity Going Into 2022

When you compare the performance of cyber security ETFs to their technology heavyweights like Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), it becomes evident that Wall Street is probably underestimating the potential of the cybersecurity industry in 2022. For the sake of this comparison, I considered the ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF (HACK) and iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK) as shown below, but there are others too.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/27/49663886-1640601244360989.png

Source: tradingview

The above charts show that both the two cybersecurity ETFs have underperformed their technology peers by more than 20%, despite holding stocks that are active in the fight against network malware and computer viruses, similarly to biotechs like BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) producing cures to address the coronavirus threat.

Now, antivirus companies have been around for years, even decades, but the problem is that the threat level has increased exponentially as from the end of 2020 when Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) was hacked through the supply chains attack when hackers made use of SolarWinds(SWI)monitoring software. Moreover, as shown by the high degree of sophistication of the recent ransomware attacks impacting colonial pipeline where millions of dollars of ransom money had to be paid to attackers, there is the involvement of bad actors at the nation-state level.

This is synonymous with aggression against the U.S., thus prompting the Biden administration to come up with a Cybersecurity executive order in May literally “forcing” federal agencies to boost IT defenses. As a result, public institutions have started to increase related expenses.

As for private institutions, they are also at a higher degree of risk due to the rapid adoption of the cloud, with workloads now also residing on employees’ laptops at home, making them more vulnerable to hacking as they are less protected by centralized corporate firewalls. Hence, there are multiple threat vectors facing CIOs, with many large enterprises reassessing their approach to cybersecurity altogether.

Hence relative underperformance in 2021 and an escalated threat landscape have created a massive opportunity for well-positioned cyber security vendors with the right products and proposition. For this matter, companies that come to mind are Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO), Palo Alto (NASDAQ:PANW), and Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT), with their sophisticated zero trust protection (“ZTP”) mechanism. ZTP, in a way, resolves the problem which cannot be solved by the more traditional perimeter fencing security where the corporation is protected assuming it to be functioning within four walls. This is far from being the case in the current decentralized/WFH environment. Exploring further, HACK holdings also include companies that provide IT security for a wide variety of purposes including desktop as well as their web infrastructures.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/12/27/49663886-16406012442883983.png

Source: etfmg.com

Thinking aloud, unless you are prepared to invest in these individual stocks which implies tracking their performance on a regular basis, HACK provides you with the ability to invest in more than one, namely through an ETF. Another advantage is that it tracks the Prime Cyber Defense Index (PCYBERNR), which provides a benchmark for investors interested in tracking companies actively involved in providing cyber security technology and services. Its holdings also include companies involved in security protocols applied to private and public networks and mobile devices in order to provide integrity of data protection.

Along the same lines, the fund managers review holdings on a quarterly basis for eligibility purposes, with the weights (percentage of assets occupied by a holding) being reset accordingly.

Finally, nearly two years after the advent of Covid, many companies are still in the process of transforming their operations to optimize on the cloud paradigm and should subsequently increasingly focus on the security aspect as a lesser portion of IT workloads remains in corporate datacenters. For this purpose, HACK’s holdings should profit as part of the broader cyber security industry over the next ten years as the market size which was $183.34 billion in 2020 reaches $539.78 billion in 2030.

Calculating a target share price for the end of 2022, based on an appreciation of just 20%, HACK should reach $73.5-$74. This uptrend should however witness a lot of volatility as most cybersecurity names are considered as growth stocks and should be adversely impacted as inflation pressures continue to prevail in the first half of 2022.

 

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Set-Up Makes 16460.00 Trigger Point for Acceleration

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed near its high of the week last Thursday as positive news about the spread of the Omicron variant drove investors into higher risk technology stocks. Better-than-expected U.S. economic data also boosted prices. The price action also suggests that investors have downplayed the hawkish Federal Reserve announcement from the prior week.

Despite the solid gains, some investors remained cautious and questioned the validity of the rally due to the well-below average holiday volume.

On Thursday, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 16299.00, up 129.25 or +0.63%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) finished at $396.99, up $3.04 or +0.77%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The tech-weighted index settled on the strong side of a short-term retracement zone at 16280.50 to 16130.00, making it support. This area is followed by a minor retracement zone at 16088.25 to 15974.50.

Combining the two retracement zone forms an important support cluster at 16130.00 to 16088.25, which could determine the short-term direction of the index.

The major support is 15567.25 to 15284.00. This zone stopped the selling at 15492.00 on December 20.

Short-Term Outlook

The early direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16280.50.

Look for the bullish tone to continue on a sustained move over 16280.50. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the market to surge into the pair of main tops at 16457.00 to 16460.00.

Taking out 16460.00 will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the all-time high at 16768.00 the next major upside target.

A failure to hold 16280.50 will be the first sign of weakness. This could trigger a break into the support cluster at 16130.00 – 16088.25. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

If 16088.25 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into 15974.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Volume could be a problem on Monday because of the long Christmas holiday weekend and the upcoming New Year’s holiday weekend.

Although there are set ups for breakouts and breakdowns, be careful buying strength and selling weakness due to below average volume.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Investors Facing Challenge at 16130.00 – 16280.50

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are testing the high of the session late Wednesday, driven by upbeat consumer confidence and other economic data. Meanwhile, investors remain optimistic over new developments about the severity of the Omicron coronavirus variant that is sweeping the world.

Technology stocks are up for a second straight session as volatility has ratcheted up in the last month of 2021 following the arrival of Omicron and an otherwise strong year for equities.

At 20:37 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16117.00, up 137.00 or +0.86%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $393.96, up $4.75 or +1.22%.

In economic news, U.S. consumer confidence improved further in December, suggesting the economy would continue to expand in 2022. The survey from the Conference Board showed more consumers planned to buy a house and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances as well as go on vacation over the next six months.

In stock-related news, Tesla Inc shares rose 7.06%, boosting the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in an interview he has sold “enough stock” following several weeks of share sales by the billionaire.

Meanwhile, Paychex Inc and Xilinx Inc posted gains of 4.8% and 4.05%, respectively. Drug-maker Moderna Inc is down 6.11% and stay-at-home-stocks Zoom Video Communications and Peloton Interactive lost 3.1% and 4.21%, respectively.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 16457.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 15492.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 14587.25 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15274.00 is major support. This area stopped the selling on Monday at 15492.00.

The minor range is 16457.00 to 15492.00. Late in the session, the market is trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 16088.25 to 15974.50, making it support.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15492.00. Its retracement zone at 16130.00 to 16280.50 is currently being tested.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 16130.00.

If the rally extends then 16280.50 will be the first target and potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with 16457.00 the next target.

If the rally fails inside 16130.00 – 16280.50, then look for a possible pullback into 16088.25 to 15974.50. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Resistance Cluster Comes in at 16088.50 – 16130.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the mid-session on Tuesday as beaten-down big technology stocks bounced back from an Omicron-driven rout the previous session.

Mega-cap growth firms, including Tesla Inc, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Meta Platforms and Alphabet Inc rose between 0.4% and 1.7% after taking a beating on Monday.

At 19:30 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15942.75, up 321.50 or +2.06%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $389.22, down $8.53 or +2.24%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 15492.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out 15279.75 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 16457.00 will change the main trend to up.

The main support is the retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15284.00. This value area stopped the selling at 15492.00 on Monday.

The minor range is 16457.00 to 15492.00. Its retracement zone at 15974.50 to 16088.50 is the first upside target.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15492.00. Its retracement zone at 16130.00 to 16280.50 is the next target area.

Short-Term Outlook

Tuesday’s strong rebound rally is impressive especially since it helped identify a major value (support) area at 15567.25 to 15284.00. It is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

However, a follow-through to the upside could prove to be a labored event with resistance a series of levels at 15974.50 to 16088.50 and 16130.00 to 16280.50.

The combination of these two zones makes 16088.50 to 16130.00 a key resistance cluster. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this area. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top that could lead to a continuation of the downtrend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Big Money Sheds PayPal, Should You?

The digital payments company pulled back with the weakness in growth stocks. But another likely reason is Big Money dropping the stock.

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes down in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions selling the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And PayPal has many fundamental qualities that are attractive. But sometimes when values decline, money managers look to sell or may be forced to liquidate.

This downward movement creates uncertainty for the stock going forward. And as I’ll show you, the Big Money has been exiting the shares recently.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way. But Big Money sells too, especially when the situation changes.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the Big Money signals PYPL has made the last year.

We’ve recently seen Big Money selling activity. Each red bar signals big trading volumes as the stock price dipped:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

In 2021, the stock has attracted 20 Big Money sell signals. Generally speaking, recent red bars could mean more uncertainty is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

Vast underperformance is an obvious red flag for leading stocks.

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to understand the fundamental story too. As you can see, PayPal has been growing sales and earnings at a double-digit rate. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+18.0%)
  • 1-year earnings growth rate (+13.8%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term. But when there is disagreement between the two, it could mean the situation has changed. Or it could be a huge long-term value play on a great stock. In the case of PayPal, investors buying at each red mark prior to this year would have gained big:

Chart, histogram

Description automatically generated

In fact, PYPL has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock has had buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis. Usually when selling dries up, great stocks rally again.

PYPL has had a lot of qualities that attracted Big Money over the years. Since 2015, it’s made the MAPsignals top list 48 times, with its first appearance on 9/20/2016… and gaining 360.27% since.

Despite the recent decline, long-term investors can consider it a winner. The blue bars below show the times that PayPal was a top pick since 2015:

Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been a top stock in the technology sector according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if PYPL reappears on this list in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

The Bottom Line

The PayPal decline makes the stock look oversold. Big Money selling in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be a huge value play long-term and still worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds long positions in PYPL in personal and managed accounts at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 15567.50 – 15284.00 Sets Near-Term Tone

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures fell on Monday as mega-cap growth stocks extended their decline from the previous session, with Tesla Inc, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms and Microsoft Corp down between 1.4% and 2.2%.

Surging global infections from the new Omicron variant are raising concerns about the impact tighter restrictions could have on the global economy.

At 17:28 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 are trading15564.25, down 223.74 or -1.42%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $378.45, down $5.97 or -1.53%.

Denting sentiment further, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin said on Sunday that he would not support President Joe Biden’s $1.75 trillion domestic investment bill. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs trimmed its quarterly U.S. GDP forecasts for 2022, in response to Manchin’s comments.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed early Monday when sellers took out the main bottom at 15547.25. A move through 16457.00 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 14587.25 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15284.00 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 15567.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15567.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at 15284.00, followed by another main bottom at 15279.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15567.50 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 15788.00. Overtaking this level will turn the index higher for the session. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into 15975.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Value Buyers Could Be Eyeing 15567.25 – 15284.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures fell on Friday as Big Tech stocks succumbed to investor worries over Omicron and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster. Investors also partially blamed the massive retreat on year-end tax selling and “triple-witching.

On Friday, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 15788.00, down 78.75 or -0.50%. Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) closed at $384.94, down $1.90 or -0.49%.

During the session, Oracle tumbled 6.4% after the Wall Street Journal reported the enterprise software maker is in talks to buy electronic medical records company Cerner in a deal that could be valued at $30 billion. Shares of Cerner surged 12.9%.

In other news, Nvidia dropped 2.1% and Alphabet lost 1.9%. Additionally, many mega cap tech shares registered steep losses this week. Microsoft dipped 0.3% Friday, bringing its weekly decline to nearly 5.5%. Apple fell more than 4% this week.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Friday when sellers took out the last swing bottom at 15734.00. Taking out the next main bottom at 15547.25 will reaffirm the downtrend. A trade through 16457.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 15547.25 to 16457.00. On Friday, the index closed on the weak side of its retracement zone at 15895.00 to 16002.25, making it new resistance.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15547.25. Its retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75 is new resistance.

The main range is 14366.75 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15284.00 is the next likely downside target. This zone stopped the selling at 15547.25 on December 3.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to the minor range at 15895.00 to 16002.25 will determine the early direction of the index.

Overtaking 16002.25 will indicate the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of another retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75.

On the downside, the key area to watch is 15567.25 to 15284.00. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market so don’t be surprised if counter-trend buyers come in to stop the price slide.

If the main Fibonacci level at 15284.00 fails then look out to the downside. We could see an acceleration into the October 12 main bottom at 14587.25.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Main Trend Changes to Down on Trade Through 15734.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are down sharply shortly before the cash market close on Thursday, dragged down by weakness among large tech stocks.

Thursday’s trading action was marked by sell-offs in some technology heavyweights, with Apple falling more than 4% and major semiconductor stocks like AMD and Nvidia dropping 5.8% and 7.3%, respectively. Shares of Adobe fell after the company’s forward guidance came in lower than analysts expected.

At 20:54 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is trading 15876.50, down 409.75 or -2.52%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF is at $386.69, down $10.36 or -2.61%.

The tech-weighted index was also pressured by declines in shares of Tesla Inc, Amazon Inc, and Microsoft, which fell between 2.0% and 4.4%.

Traders said the price action was fueled by a rotation toward more economically sensitive parts of the market after the Fed said on Wednesday it would raise interest rates three times in 2022. Higher interest rates tend to work against technology stocks.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 15734.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through 16457.00 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The minor range is 15547.25 to 16457.00. The index is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 15894.75 to 16002.25, making it resistance.

The short-term retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75 is additional resistance.

The main retracement zone support comes in at 15567.25 to 15284.00. This area stopped the selling on December 3 at 15547.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close and early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15894.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15894.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the main bottom at 15734.00.

Taking out 15734.00 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger a further break into major 50% level at 15567.25, followed by another main bottom at 15547.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the major Fibonacci level at 15284.00 the next likely target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15895.00 will signal the presence of late session buyers. This could fuel a fast rally into 16002.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 16157.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Recovery Sets Up Test of 16438.75 – 16460.00

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher late Wednesday after cutting earlier losses as investors overcame another big hurdle heading into year-end. The Federal Reserve signaled a more aggressive unwinding of its monthly bond buying, as expected by the market, and forecast multiple rate hikes on the way next year.

The more aggressive moves by the Fed didn’t seem to rattle investors, who drove the index higher after prices hit bargain-basement levels earlier in the session.

At 20:20 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16192.75, up 270.50 or +1.70%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $394.87, up $6.73 or +1.73%.

After initially finding support following the release of the Fed statement, the index advanced further after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference that the labor market is not fully recovered, pointed to a sluggish rebound in labor force participation, but said it was still appropriate to roll back some of the Fed’s pandemic-era policies.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 16438.75 will change the main trend to up. A move through 15547.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down, but a new minor bottom has formed at 15734. 00.

The minor range is 15547.25 to 16438.75. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 15993.00 to 15887.75, making it support.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15547.25. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75.

The major support zone is 15567.25 to 15284.00.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16157.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16157.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next upside target is 16301.75.

Overtaking 16301.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger, putting the index in a position to challenge a pair of main tops at 16438.75 and 16460.00. Taking out these tops will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration into 16768.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16157.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session pullback into the minor retracement zone at 15993.00 to 15887.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Sellers Targeting 15567.25 – 15284.00 Support

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are down sharply at the mid-session on Tuesday as Big Tech stocks moved lower and new inflation data continued to show a sharp rise in prices.

The steep drop in technology stocks comes after the November reading for the producer price index showed a year-over-year increase of 9.6%, the fastest pace on record and above the 9.2% expected by economists, according to Dow Jones. The index rose 0.8% month over month, above the 0.5% expected.

At 18:22 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15773.50, down 308.00 or -1.92%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $384.61, down $7.65 or -1.95%.

Tesla shares were among the biggest droppers on the S&P 500, falling 2.3% after CEO Elon Musk announced that he has sold another $906.5 million in shares. Microsoft was also a major drag on the market averages, falling more than 4%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 15547.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 16438.75 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 15547.25 to 16438.75. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 15887.75 to 15993.00, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15547.25. Its retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75 is additional resistance.

The main range is 14366.75 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15284.00 is the primary downside target. This area is controlling the near-term direction of the index. It stopped the selling at 15547.25 on December 3.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15887.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15887.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this continues to generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend the break into 15567.25 – 15547.25.

Taking out 15547.25 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target a support cluster at 15284.00 – 15279.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15887.80 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a fast move into 15993.00.

Overcoming 15993.00 late in the session will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target area 16157.75 to 16301.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 16157.75 Sets Early Tone on Tuesday

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading sharply lower late in the session on Monday. With the market testing the low of the session into the close, traders are expecting follow-through selling early Tuesday. Fueling the downside pressure is worries about the Omicron coronavirus variant ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

At 21:25 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16080.75, down 250.75 or -1.54%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF settled at $392.25, down $5.76 or -1.45%.

Investors expect an increasingly hawkish tone out of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that wraps up Wednesday. The Fed will release its monetary policy statement at 19:00 GMT. The U.S. central bank is expected to signal a faster wind-down of asset purchases, which could move it closer to its first interest rate hike.

In stock related news, Apple Inc dipped 2.1%, even after J.P. Morgan raised its price target on the iPhone maker to its highest on Wall Street. The company is close to becoming the first in the world to hit $3 trillion in market value.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 16438.75 will change the main trend to up. A move through 15547.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 16768.00 to 15547.25. The index is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 16157.75 to 16301.75, making this area resistance.

The minor range is 15547.25 to 16438.75. Its retracement zone at 15993.00 to 15887.75 is the next downside target.

The main range is 14366.75 to 16768.00. Its retracement zone at 15567.25 to 15284.00 is potential support. This zone stopped the selling at 15547.25 on December 3.

Short-Term Outlook

The early direction on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 16157.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16157.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 15993.00 to 15887.75.

Look for aggressive counter-trend buyers on the first test of 15993.00 to 15887.75. If 15887.75 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 15567.25 – 15547.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16157.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into 16301.75. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 16438.75 and 16460.00 the next targets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 16152.75, Weakens Under 15987.25

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are little changed during Friday’s premarket session as investors brace for a report on U.S. inflation data due later in the day. Today’s early move follows yesterday’s profit-taking session that ended a three-day winning streak.

At 08:22 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16169.25, up 20.50 or +0.13%. On Thursday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) ETF settled at $393.74, down $5.87 or -1.47%.

In economic news on Thursday, jobless claims data showed the labor market recovery remains strong. The Labor Department reported initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled 184,000, below the 211,000 estimated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and the lowest reading since 1969.

At 13:30 GMT, traders expect the U.S. Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show a high reading, which could lead the Federal Reserve to hasten the taper of its $120-billion monthly bond-buying program.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 0.7% gain for the month of November, which would translate to a year-over-year growth rate of 6.7%. If that is the case, it will mark the biggest move since June 1982.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through 16456.25 will change the main trend to up. A move through 15538.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through the minor top at 16436.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The short-term range is 16767.50 to 15538.00. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 16152.75.

The minor range is 15538.00 to 16436.75. Its pivot at 15987.25 is the nearest support.

The major support area is a cluster of levels at 15676.50, 15567.50, 15419.00 and 15284.50. Last week’s low at 15538.00 fell inside this support cluster.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16152.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16152.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at the minor top at 16436.75, followed by the main top at 16456.25.

Taking out 16456.25 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 16767.50 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16152.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into 15987.25.

The pivot at 15987.25 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside. The first key downside targets are 15676.50, 15567.50 and 15538.00. Taking out 15538 will change the main trend to down.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strength Over 16374.50, Weakness Under 16318.00

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures posted its best three days since March on Tuesday, gaining nearly 2.91%. Tech stocks have recovered this week from last week’s market rout on fears of the omicron COVID variant and a possible faster-than-expected taper of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program. Technology stocks have lead the way, with the NASDAQ Composite up 4% since Monday.

On Tuesday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 16318.00, up 475.25 or +2.91%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF finished at $397.95, up $11.75 or +3.04%.

Investors piled back into tech heavyweights and semiconductors in particular after Intel announced plans to take its self-driving car unit public.

Tech giant Apple jumped 3.54% after Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty raised Apple’s price target from $164 to $200 and maintained an overweight rating. The analyst believes that new products from Apple, like an augmented reality headset or self-driving car, aren’t yet baked into the share price.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted its biggest rise since early March of this year.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 16456.25 will change the main trend to up. A move through 15538.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. It changed to up on Tuesday when buyers took out the minor top at 16121.75.

The short-term range is 16767.50 to 15538.00. The index is trading on the strong side of its pivot at 16152.75, making it support.

The major support zone is clustered at 15676.50, 15567.50, 15419.00 and 15284.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16318.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16318.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the main top at 16456.25. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 16767.50 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16318.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the pivot at 16152.75.

If 16152.75 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into a minor pivot at 15977.75. This is the last potential support before the main bottom at 15538.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – May Have Found Support; 16152.75 New Upside Target

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures plunged on Friday, leaving it down for the week for its fifth-worst week of the year. A disappointing jobs report to end the week coupled with omicron concerns led to the Friday meltdown.

Additionally, earlier in the week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is so concerned about escalating inflation pressures that it could begin tapering its bond buying designed to boost the economy.

On Friday, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 15717.75, down 270.75 or -1.72%. Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) finished at 383.20, down $6.71 or -1.72%.

Shares of Apple Inc, Meta Platforms, Google-owner Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp and Tesla Inc fell between 1.4% and 6.1% to weigh the most on the S&P 500.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 15538.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through 15273.75 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 16121.75 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The key support is a series of retracement levels at 15676.50, 15567.50, 15419.00 and 15284.50. This area stopped the selling at 15538.00 on Friday.

The minor range is 16767.50 to 15538.00. Its 50% level at 16152.75 is the nearest upside target.

On the downside, the major target zone is 14841.25 to 14386.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15676.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 15676.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a move into 15997.25, followed by 16152.75.

Although momentum shifts to up on a move through 16121.75, the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is 16152.75. This could lead to a surge into 16456.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 15676.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a labored break into a series of potential support levels at 15567.50, 15538.00, 15419.00, 15284.50 and 15273.75.

The main bottom at 15273.75 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 14841.25 to 14386.50 the next major downside target zone. This area represents value so look for aggressive buyers to show up on a test of this area.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Momentum Shifts to Upside on Trade Through 16066.25

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching lower early Friday ahead of the November jobs report as the market nears the end of a roller-coaster week driven by COVID omicron variant developments.

On Thursday, the technology-driven index settled sharply higher, recovering ground lost over recent sessions as market participants snapped up bargains while digesting the implications of a shifting pandemic.

At 04:52 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15972.50, down 16.00 or -0.10%. On Thursday, the ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 settled at $389.93, up +$2.81 or +0.73%.

The November jobs report is set for release Friday morning. Investors expect to see solid jobs growth last month, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicting 581,000 jobs added in November.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside.

A trade through 16066.25 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A move through 15762.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 16456.25.

Early Friday, the index is straddling a pivot at 16020.75.

On the downside, the first support is a pivot at 15676.50. This is followed by a retracement zone at 15567.50 to 15284.50.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a pivot at 16265.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16020.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16020.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 16066.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This will shift momentum to the upside with 16265.25 the next likely upside target. This is the last potential resistance before the 16456.25 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16020.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the closing price reversal bottom at 15762.75.

Taking out 15762.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of a pair of 50% levels at 15676.50 and 15567.50. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 15284.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.