Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Show Signs of Hope for Stimulus

Silver markets continue to see slightly bullish pressure, as we have broken above the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, the market is waiting to see whether or not we are going to get some type of stimulus coming out the United States. There is a bit of hope that we will see it, as Tuesday is anticipated to be the “do or die” session. That being said, there are a lot of concerns out there and therefore one would have to wonder whether or not the silver market will see as much demand going forward. Yes, there is the potential precious metals trade, but silver tends to be thought of more as an industrial metal for the longer-term move.

SILVER Video 21.10.20

Looking at this chart, the 50 day EMA is sloping slightly lower, so I do think that there is the possibility that we get a bit of a pullback, but I am not willing to short this market. I recognize that this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think longer-term we still have a lot of central banks out there looking to flood the markets with liquidity. If that is the case, that should continue to make an argument for hard assets, at least over the longer term. I think that silver probably drops a bit from here, but I would be very interested in buying at $24, $22, and then the 200 day EMA which will attract a lot of attention. Having said that, we have a lot of volatility ahead of us so keep it a small position will be the most important thing.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Tries To Settle Above The 50 EMA

Silver Video 20.10.20.

Silver Gains Ground On Weaker U.S. Dollar

Silver continues its attempts to settle above the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.50 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to settle below the 20 EMA at 93.50 and is declining towards the 93 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index settles below the support at 93.00, it will gain additional downside momentum which will be bullish for silver.

Meanwhile, gold is stuck at the 50 EMA level at $1905. Gold failed to develop any momentum in recent trading sessions but managed to stay above the $1900 level. If gold moves above the 50 EMA, it will have a chance to develop upside momentum and get to the test of the next resistance at $1930 which will be bullish for silver and other precious metals.

Gold/silver ratio continues its downside move and is currently declining towards the 77 level. If gold/silver ratio gets below 77, it will move towards the recent lows near 75.50 which will be a favorable scenario for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver october 20 2020

Silver is trying to move above the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA. Silver has already tested this resistance level several times but failed to gain sufficient upside momentum.

If silver manages to settle above the 50 EMA, it will move towards the highs reached during the previous trading session near $25.00. A move above $25.00 will open the way to the test of October highs at $25.55.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at $23.90. There are no material levels between $23.90 and the 50 EMA at $24.50 so silver may quickly get to the test of the nearest support level in case the right catalysts emerge.

A move below the support at $23.90 will push silver closer to the next support level at $23.30.

From a big picture point of view, silver needs to settle above the 50 EMA in order to continue its upside move. If silver fails to move above this resistance level, the risks of a sell-off will increase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Further Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally

Gold, mining stocks, and the USD Index have not been doing much recently. However, yesterday, this “inactivity” took quite a decisive shape, and unfortunately, things are not looking good for gold.

As you are all aware, gold tends to move conversely to the USD Index. Therefore, it’s useful to focus on the latter for signs that would influence the former. So, what does the current USDX outlook look like?

Well, it looks like the USDX is about to rally. It broke above its medium-term resistance line and verified this breakout. This verification took the form of a decline based on a more recent short-term breakout, which seems to have ended.

From a medium-term point of view, since the market had to correct before moving higher again, it’s no wonder that it had to do the same from a short-term perspective as well.

Based on the chart above, the outlook for the USD Index is bullish.

But, before we move to gold, please pay attention to the shape of the last candlestick. The USDX moved relatively lower, almost touching the declining support line.

Considering the above, one might have expected to see a visible daily gain in gold – maybe with a small correction, but again, with a substantial gain in terms of daily closing prices. So, did we witness something like that?

Not really.

Gold was marginally up, which is a notable bearish indication. The bearish confirmation comes from the fact that gold tried and failed to break above the declining resistance line.

Above the resistance line, gold took only a small comeback from the USD Index that made gold invalidate its intraday breakout. It is a clear sign of weakness.

And you know what precious metals sector sign of weakness is even more visible? It’s yesterday’s action in gold and silver mining stocks .

Namely, miners have declined adamantly– much more visibly than gold. This type of underperformance is what precedes the decline. Or, more precisely, it is often the very initial part of a more significant decline.

That is a perfect cherry on the bearish analytical cake that we’ve “baked” in our previous analyses. Over a week ago , we wrote that the situation was reminiscent of the earlier cases, marked with blue ellipses. Namely, the GDX ETF moved only a tad higher, which was the final top for at least some time. We argued that the strong daily rally that started with a bullish price gap was not so bullish after all. Indeed, over a week later, once again, miners are visibly lower.

Of course, based i.a. in the USDX situation, most probably, this is not the end of the miners’ decline, but rather, it is just the beginning. The situation relative to the 50-day moving average (marked with blue) confirms it. After all, back in March, miners moved slightly above their 50-day moving average only to plunge shortly after that, and the current situation is the only similar case to the above. There were no other cases when the miners broke below this MA and then moved back up slightly above it, declining once again afterward.

And due to the above, if the situation wasn’t bearish enough, the Stochastic indicator based on the GDX ETF has just flashed a clear sell signal.

All in all, currently, the outlook for the precious metals market remains bearish.

As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Open Up the Week With Bullish Pressure

Silver markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to figure out where to go next, so having said that it is a scenario where we are probably going to continue to see buyers on dips. However, keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to the trajectory of the US dollar, and therefore it is worth paying attention to the US Dollar Index if you are going to trade silver. As a general, and certainly over the last 90 days, we have seen a bit of a negative correlation. Having said that, if the US dollar is starting to strengthen, that probably works against silver insensate to lower levels.

SILVER Video 20.10.20

The $24 level should offer minor support, and most clearly the $22 level well. The 200 day EMA is sitting just above the $21 level, and of course the $20 level is psychologically and structurally important from previous trading. Because of this, I am not necessarily looking to short silver, but I do recognize that there is still a significant amount of headwinds out there that could come into play.

Given enough time, you also have to question whether or not we are going to see industrial demand as well, because the market also have to pay attention to whether or not there is going to be industrial usage, which is a major influence on what happens next with silver. While it is a precious metal, it play second fiddle to the gold market in that aspect.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Starts The Week On A Strong Note

Silver Video 19.10.20.

Silver Attempts To Gain More Momentum Above The 50 EMA

Silver has managed to get above the resistance at the 50 EMA at $24.55 and is trying to gain additional upside momentum as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index declined below 93.50 and is heading towards the nearest support level at 93.00 on hopes for a new coronavirus aid package deal. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets to the test of the 93 level, silver will get more support. Weaker dollar is bullish for silver as it makes it cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Meanwhile, gold is trying to settle above its 50 EMA at $1905. At this point, gold failed to develop material upside momentum but maintains solid chances to continue its upside move. If gold gets to the test of the next resistance at $1930, silver and other precious metals will get additional support.

Gold/silver ratio declined below the support at the 20 EMA at 77.95 which is bullish for silver. The next support level for gold/silver ratio is located at the recent lows near 75.50. A move towards this level will be a bullish development for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver october 19 2020

Silver is currently trying to get more momentum above the support at the 50 EMA at $24.55. If this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the next resistance level at the recent highs at $25.55.

Along the way, silver may face some resistance near the highs of today’s trading session at $25.00. If silver moves above the resistance at $25.55, it will quickly get to the test of the next resistance level at $25.85.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at $23.90. A move below this level will open the way to the test of the next support at $23.30.

From a big picture point of view, silver managed to get sufficient support near $24.00 and continues its upside move. If the U.S. dollar remains weak, silver will have good chances to get above the recent highs at $25.55.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Contines to Show Volatility

The silver markets initially tried to rally for the week, but then rolled over to show signs of weakness. The market broke below the $24 level, only to turn around and close above it. Nonetheless, we are looking to the markets in a very cautious manner. The market is likely to find buyers at lower levels, and this is how I am looking to trade the markets. The $22 level underneath is another longer-term area of demand that I think we might test. After that, the $20 level is a major figure that the markets will more than likely pay attention to.

SILVER Video 19.10.20

The fact that central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy should continue to drive up demand for hard assets such as silver and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we continue to climb. However, when I look at the huge red candlestick that we have not come close to wiping out yet, I anticipate that there is probably more downward pressure coming. This is not to say that I would be a seller of silver, rather that I would be looking for value underneath.

I believe that the $20 level is a perfect area, due to the fact that on the daily chart you see the 200 day EMA coming into play, and on the weekly chart you see the 50 week EMA coming into the picture. I do not know if we go that low, but I will be looking for buying opportunities on these pullbacks that I am almost positive are coming going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Have Gone Back and Forth

Silver markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday, and as a result it is likely that the 50 day EMA is going to continue to be noisy. At this point, I think that if we can break above the 50 day EMA it is likely that we will go looking towards the $25.50 level. After that, then we could go looking towards the $27 level.

SILVER Video 19.10.20

To the downside, the market is likely to go looking towards the $24 level, and then possibly the $23 level. This is a market that tends to move in one dollar increments, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward. The 50 day EMA is relatively flat, and that signifies that the market has run out of momentum. This makes quite a bit of sense considering that the US dollar continues to go back and forth ahead of the presidential election and of course the decision as to whether or not we are going to see any type of significant stimulus.

At this point, I do believe that the market is more likely to go higher than lower over the longer term, so I look at pullbacks as potential value opportunities, not necessarily something that I want to start selling. In fact, I believe that the “floor the market” is closer to the $20 level underneath, and therefore it is not until we break down below there that I would start selling. Pullbacks simply offers silver at her prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Tries To Get Above The 50 EMA

Silver Video 16.10.20.

Silver Continues Its Attempts to Gain Additional Upside Momentum

Silver is testing the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.55 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance at its 50 EMA at 93.75 and pulled back. The nearest support for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at the 20 EMA at 93.55.

If the U.S. Dollar Index moves below this support level, it will gain additional downside momentum which will be bullish for silver. A weaker dollar is a positive catalyst for silver as it makes it cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Meanwhile, gold is roughly flat. Gold is testing its 50 EMA level at $1905 but has so far failed to develop material upside momentum. In case gold moves towards the resistance at the recent highs at $1930, silver and other precious metals will get additional support.

Gold/silver ratio is stuck between the support at the 20 EMA at 77.95 and the 50 EMA at 78.40. In case gold/silver ratio moves below the 20 EMA, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards October lows near 75.50. This scenario will be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver october 16 2020

Silver is trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.55. If this attempt is successful, silver will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at the recent highs at $25.55.

There are no material levels between $24.55 and $25.55 so this move may be fast. A successful test of the resistance at $25.55 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at $25.85.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver is located at $23.90. Yesterday, silver made an attempt to settle below this level, but quickly rebounded back above the $24 level.

If silver manages to settle below the support at $23.90, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at $23.30.

From a big picture point of view, silver’s upside trend remains intact. However, silver risks losing its general upside momentum if it fails to get above the 50 EMA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Gold Still at $1,900 as Markets Remain Indecisive

The gold futures contract gained 0.08% on Thursday, as it continued to fluctuate following Tuesday’s retreat below $1,900 price level. Recently gold was retracing a rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. Then gold has bounced from the support level marked by mid-August local low of around $1,875, as we can see on the daily chart ( the chart includes today’s intraday data ):

Gold is unchanged this morning, as it is extending a short-term consolidation. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 0.7% on Thursday and today it is 0.3% higher. Platinum lost 0.24% and today it is 0.7% lower. Palladium gained just 0.03% yesterday and today it is 0.7% lower. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has been better than expected, however Unemployment Claims and Empire State Manufacturing Index releases have been worse than expected. Today we will get the important Retail Sales release at 8:30 a.m., among others.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for today:

Friday, October 16

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – Final CPI y/y, Final Core CPI y/y, Trade Balance
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m , Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories m/m

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Find Support at Big Figure

Silver is a very interesting place right now because it has dipped below the $24 level. That being said, we have also broken back above it midday, so the question now is whether or not we can continue to hold on to some semblance of support? I imagine that this is going to be a very difficult market to trade over the next couple of days simply because we have so much in the way of noise out there that could cause major issues. With that being the case I like the idea of taking advantage of “cheap silver” on the whole, but I also recognize that we cannot necessarily rule out that the market could go lower. After all, silver has been highly negatively correlated to the US dollar, so pay attention to what is going on over there.

SILVER Video 16.10.20

At this point, one could make an argument for silver rallying, based upon the $24 level, but you can also see that the $23 and $22 levels have both offered support so do not be surprised at all if we have to test those areas as well. Longer-term, I do believe that silver goes higher and therefore I look it dips as opportunities to buy silver, but I do so in very small increments. To the upside I see a significant amount of supply near the $27 level, so I think that will be very difficult to break higher. However, it looks as if central bank around the world will continue to loosen monetary policy, so that of course helps the idea of precious metals rallying.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Slides Amid Global Market Sell-Off

Silver Video 15.10.20.

Strong U.S. Dollar Puts Pressure On Silver

Silver declined below $24.00 as the U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies amid fears about the second wave of coronavirus in Europe.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 93.55 and is currently testing the next resistance at the 50 EMA at 93.75. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to get above the 50 EMA, it will gain additional upside momentum and move towards the 94 level which will be bearish for silver.

Gold is also under some pressure due to stronger dollar. Currently, gold is trying to settle below the $1900 level. However, gold’s losses are limited as it gets some support from its safe haven status.

Gold/silver ratio managed to get above the resistance at the 50 EMA at 78.45 and is located close to the 80 level. If gold/silver ratio moves above 80, it may develop additional momentum which will be bearish for silver.

At this point, fears about the second wave of the virus dominate the markets. If these fears continue to push the dollar higher, silver may find itself under significant pressure and test the support at $23.30.

Technical Analysis

silver october 15 2020

Silver is currently trying to settle below the nearest support level at $23.90. In case this attempt is successful, silver will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at $23.30.

A move below $23.30 will open the way to the test of the next support level at October lows at $22.90. If silver gets below this support level, it will decline towards the support at $22.30.

On the upside, silver needs to stay above the support at $23.90 to have a chance to develop upside momentum. If silver settles above $23.90, it will head towards the nearest significant resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.55.

Silver has clearly lost its previous upside momentum in recent trading sessions and settled below the 20 EMA and the 50 EMA. However, the situation may change quickly as key catalysts like the second wave of the virus, the next round of U.S. stimulus and Brexit will continue to boost volatility in the markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Lower Amid Fears About Second Wave In Europe

Coronavirus Is Back Into Spotlight

European stocks are pushing the world markets lower amid fears about the second wave of the virus. S&P 500 futures have joined the trend and are down by more than 1% in premarket trading.

Yesterday, President of France Emmanuel Macron imposed a curfew on the country’s biggest cities in order to deal with the second wave of coronavirus. Other European countries are also moving closer to serious restrictions.

London’s mayor Sadiq Khan has recently stated that Britain’s capital will soon be moved into the second tier of restrictions which will impose additional limits on public life in the city.

The U.S. dollar is showing strength as investors increase their purchases of safe haven assets. Not surprisingly, stronger dollar puts significant pressure on gold and silver. Oil, which has recently tried to get above the resistance at $41.50, returned back below the $40 level.

In this light, commodity-related stocks may take a double hit today from stronger dollar and general anxiety about future demand for commodities amid the second wave.

Hopes For A New Round Of Stimulus Fade

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the new coronavirus aid package was unlikely before the election in November. U.S. stocks have recently had a great run as traders hoped for a new stimulus bill so this statement put additional pressure on equities.

While the market believes that a stimulus package is inevitable, traders would prefer to see a new round of stimulus as soon as possible.

Without additional help from the U.S. government, traders will focus on companies’ reports during the third-quarter earnings season and the new developments on the coronavirus front.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Increased To 898,000

The U.S. has just provided Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports.

Initial Jobless Claims report indicated that 898,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in one week. Analysts expected Initial Jobless Claims of 825,000.

Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims declined from 10.98 million to 10.02 million compared to analyst consensus of 10.7 million.

Most likely, traders will focus on the disappointing Initial Jobless Claims report which showed that more people were losing their jobs amid the pandemic.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Gold Going Sideways After Tuesday’s Decline

The gold futures contract gained 0.67% on Wednesday, as it fluctuated following Tuesday’s retreat below $1,900 price level. Recently gold was retracing a rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. Then gold has bounced from the support level marked by mid-August local low of around $1,875, as we can see on the daily chart ( the chart includes today’s intraday data ):

Gold is 0.4% lower this morning, as it is trading within a short-term consolidation following Tuesday’s decline. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 1.10% on Wednesday and today it is 1.6% lower. Platinum lost 1.13% and today it is 0.8% lower. Palladium gained 0.94% yesterday and today it is 0.8% lower. So precious metals are lower this morning.

Yesterday’s U.S. Producer Price Index release has been higher as expected at +0.4%. Today we will get Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Index releases at 8:30 a.m. and some more Fed talk.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Thursday, October 15

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 11:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kaplan Speech, FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 5:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
  • 12:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech

Friday, October 16

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – Final CPI y/y, Final Core CPI y/y, Trade Balance
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories m/m

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Continue to Find Interest

Silver markets continue to grind back and forth, reacting to the idea of what is going on in the US dollar, and therefore I think it is worth paying attention to the US Dollar Index, as it tends to have a rather negative correlation to the silver market as of late. In other words, if the US dollar starts to rally, that works against silver. Having said that, you can see that we have fallen rather hard over the last month or so, only to bounce again. I think we probably still have further to go to the downside, especially as there is so much in the way of concern.

SILVER Video 15.10.20

Silver is a precious metal, but unfortunately it also has more of an industrial component as well. In other words, the demand for silver is a very real thing, unlike gold which although gold does have a bit of industrial demand, it pales in comparison to silver. With that being said, silver does tend to be a lot more fragile than gold when it comes to the robustness of the trade. Looking at this chart, I think if we break down below the $24 level, we are likely to go to the $23 level, followed by the $22 level. Quite frankly, I could see this market reaching all the way down to the $20 level, which is essentially what I considered to be the “floor the market.”

The best way to treat silver at this point I think is the trade officer the US dollar, and then only in small positions the board of a longer-term bullish position. I do think that it is only a matter of time before silver takes off, mainly due to what central banks are going to quantitative easing matters. That being said, be cautious about jumping “all in.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Tries To Settle Back Above The 50 EMA

Silver Video 14.10.20.

Silver Tests The Resistance At $24.55

Silver is trying to get back above the 50 EMA at $24.55 as the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index made an attempt to get to the test of the 50 EMA level at 93.75 but lost upside momentum and declined below the 20 EMA at 93.50. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 50 EMA at 93.50, it will gain downside momentum and move towards the recent lows at the 93 level.

This scenario will be bullish for silver as weaker U.S. dollar makes silver cheaper for buyers who have other currencies.

Meanwhile, gold is attempting to settle back above its 50 EMA at $1905. If this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the recent highs at $1930 which will be bullish for silver and other precious metals.

Gold/silver ratio is currently stuck between the 20 EMA at 77.90 and the 50 EMA at 78.40. If gold/silver ratio settles above the 50 EMA, it will gain upside momentum which will be bearish for silver. At the same time, a move below the 20 EMA will provide additional support to silver.

Technical Analysis

silver october 14 2020

Silver is currently trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at the 50 EMA at $24.55. If this attempt is successful, silver will gain upside momentum and head towards the next significant resistance level at $25.85. Along the way, silver may also face some resistance at the recent highs near $25.50.

In case silver manages to settle above the resistance at $25.85, it will move towards the next resistance area at $26.20 – $26.30.

On the support side, the nearest support level for silver has emerged at $23.90. This support level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case silver gets below this support level, it will head towards the next support at $23.30.

From a big picture point of view, silver’s upside trend remains intact. In order to keep its upside momentum, silver needs to quickly get back above the 50 EMA.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

On the Verge of USDX and PM Sector Pause

In Monday’s analysis , we’ve explained why rising stock prices might not lead to significantly higher gold prices after all before the latter turned south again. The manner in which this week’s trading was conducted seems to have confirmed our indications. With stocks ( S&P 500 ) up by 1%, and Monday’s close as its second-highest daily close this index has made – ever, did gold rallied that strongly as well? Not by any means. As a matter of fact, gold futures went down by 1.64% ($31.60).

This relative performance is a bearish indication, but it’s not as bearish as the fact that gold has just invalidated its small breakout above the declining resistance line.

At the same time, this means that:

  • Gold invalidated its small short-term breakout. However, the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line was not invalidated.
  • Silver declined after verifying its breakdown below the rising medium-term support line.
  • Miners are already well after the critical breakdown below the rising medium-term support line.

It all happened while stocks moved close to their all-time highs. Clearly, the rising stocks won’t be able to push the precious metals sector higher on their own.

In most cases, the most significant signs come from the USD Index, presented on the multi-chart above. However, to check what comes next for the U.S. currency in the near future, we’ll have to zoom in.

If we look at the index from a very short-term perspective (the chart above is based on 4-hour candlesticks), we can see that the USD Index just broke above its short-term resistance line and is currently verifying this breakout.

This means that while we might see a pause in both: USDX and the precious metals sector in the next several hours (or few days), more decisive moves are likely to follow then. By all means, in case of the USDX, this move is likely to be an upward one, and in case of the PMs, it will most probably be towards the downside.

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For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Daily Gold News: Gold at $1,900 Price Level Again

The gold futures contract lost 1.78% on Tuesday, as it retraced its last week’s advance. The market got back below $1,900 price level. Recently gold was retracing a rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. Then gold has bounced from the support level marked by mid-August local low of around $1,875, as we can see on the daily chart ( the chart includes today’s intraday data ):

Gold is 0.5% higher this morning, as it is trading within a consolidation following yesterday’s decline. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 4.52% on Tuesday and today it is 0.4% higher. Platinum lost 0.34% and today it is 0.4% higher. Palladium lost 3.35% yesterday and today it is 2.0% higher. So precious metals are advancing this morning.

Yesterday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index has been as expected at +0.2% m/m. Today we will get the Producer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m. There will also be a lot of Fed talk.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Wednesday, October 14

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
  • 9:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Clarida Speech
  • 10:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Quarles Speech
  • 5:45 a.m. Australia – RBA Governor Lowe Speech
  • 6:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • 9:30 p.m. China – CPI y/y. PPI y/y

Thursday, October 15

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 11:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kaplan Speech, FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
  • 5:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
  • 12:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Break 50 Day EMA

Silver markets have broken down significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, slicing through the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA of course is an area that attracts a lot of attention, and as you can see, we have seen resistance lately. At this point time, the market has broken down through the 50 day EMA, reaching towards the $24 level. The $24 level is an area that has attracted a certain amount of attention, so having said that the market continues to see a lot of questions.

SILVER Video 14.10.20

Looking at the chart, we could be forming a bit of a bearish flag, but quite frankly I think that even if we do break down from here it is likely that the $22 level would offer support, and then of course the 200 day EMA after that. Ultimately, I believe that the “floor in the market” is closer to the $20 level. At this point in time, I think that a lot of people will be interested in picking up value for the longer-term move.

After all, this is all based upon the US dollar at the moment, and people are looking at the central banks around the world ready to flood the markets with liquidity. That brings down the value of fiat currency, and as a result hard assets will more than likely continue to be desired. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, but from a longer-term standpoint I still believe that we are going higher. Looking for value is the best way going forward.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Test Of Support At $24.60

Silver Video 13.10.20.

Silver Remains Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Index Is Trying To Rebound

Silver declined below $25.00 and is testing the nearest support level at the 50 EMA at $24.60 as the U.S. dollar is gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the nearest resistance area at 93.20 – 93.25. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to get above this level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the 20 EMA at 93.50 which will be bearish for silver.

Gold is also testing its support at the 50 EMA at $1905. If gold settles below the 50 EMA, it will gain downside momentum and decline below $1900, putting pressure on silver and other precious metals.

Gold/silver ratio is currently testing the nearest resistance at the 20 EMA at  77.75. If gold/silver ratio moves above the 20 EMA, it will gain upside momentum which will be bearish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver october 13 2020

Silver did not manage to settle above the resistance level at $25.85 and quickly declined towards the 50 EMA at $24.60. The recent rebound of the U.S. dollar put significant pressure on silver.

In addition, there were no material levels between the 50 EMA at $24.60 and the next resistance at $25.85 so silver’s moves inside this range were very fast.

In case silver manages to settle below the 50 EMA at $24.60, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at $23.30.

There are no significant levels between the support at $23.30 and the 50 EMA at $24.60 so this move may be fast as well. In case silver gets below $23.30, it will decline closer to the next support level at $22.90.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for silver is still located at $25.85. Yesterday, silver made an attempt to get to the test of this level but its upside move was stopped at $25.56.

If silver settles above the resistance at $25.85, it will head towards the next resistance area at $26.20 – $26.30.

From a big picture point of view, silver is still trending higher, but a move below the 50 EMA will put its upside momentum under question.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Gold Continues Sideways After Breaking Higher Last Week

The gold futures contract gained 0.14% on Monday, as it fluctuated following breaking above $1,900 price level. On last week’s Tuesday volatility has increased following a tweet from the U.S. President ending stimulus talks. But overall, the market has extended its consolidation. Recently gold was retracing a rally from around $1,800 to August 7 record high of $2,089.20 in reaction to U.S. dollar advance, among other factors. Then gold has bounced from the support level marked by mid-August local low of around $1,875, as we can see on the daily chart ( the chart includes today’s intraday data ):

Gold is 0.1% lower this morning, as it is trading within a short-term consolidation. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 0.65% on Monday and today it is 0.4% lower. Platinum lost 2.01% and today it is 0.5% lower. Palladium lost 1.53% on Monday and today it is 0.3% higher. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday there were Bank Holidays in the U.S. and Canada and intraday volatility has been relatively low. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment has been lower than expected this morning. Today we will also get the U.S. Consumer Price Index . The German ZEW Economic Sentiment has been lower than expected this morning.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Tuesday, October 13

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m

Wednesday, October 14

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m
  • 9:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Clarida Speech
  • 10:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Quarles Speech
  • 5:45 a.m. Australia – RBA Governor Lowe Speech
  • 6:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
  • 9:30 p.m. China – CPI y/y. PPI y/y

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.
* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.