Exclusive-India’s Reliance Jio to launch 4G enabled low-cost laptop at $184

By Munsif Vengattil

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Reliance Jio will launch a budget laptop priced at $184 (15,000 Indian rupees) with an embedded 4G sim card, aiming to replicate the success of its low-cost JioPhone in India’s highly price-sensitive market, two sources told Reuters.

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate has partnered with global giants Qualcomm and Microsoft for the JioBook, with the former powering its computing chips based on technology from Arm Ltd, and the Windows OS maker providing support for some apps.

Jio, India’s biggest telecom carrier with more than 420 million customers, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The laptop will be available to enterprise customers such as schools and government institutes from this month, with a consumer launch anticipated within the next three months, sources said. As with the JioPhone, a 5G-enabled version will follow.

“This will be as big as JioPhone,” one of the sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Since its launch late last year, the handset has been India’s top-selling sub-$100 smartphone, accounting for a fifth of the market over the last three quarters, according to Counterpoint.

The JioBook will be produced locally by contract manufacturer Flex with Jio aiming to sell “hundreds of thousands” of units by March, one of the sources said.

Overall PC shipments in India stood at 14.8 million units last year, led by HP, Dell and Lenovo, according to research firm IDC.

The launch of the JioBook will extend the total addressable laptop market segment by at least 15%, Counterpoint analyst Tarun Pathak said.

The laptop will run Jio’s own JioOS operating system and apps can be downloaded from the JioStore. Jio is also pitching the laptop as an alternative to tablets for out of the office corporate employees.

Jio, which raised around $22 billion from global investors such as KKR & Co Inc and Silver Lake in 2020, is credited with disrupting the world’s no. 2 mobile market when it launched cheap 4G data plans and free voice services in 2016, and later the 4G smartphone at a cost of just $81.

(Reporting by Munsif Vengattil in New Delhi; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Bounce From a Major Support Level

Silver Weekly Technical Analysis

Silver markets have fallen a bit during the trading sessions that make up the previous week, as the $18 level has been important more than once. Ultimately, this is a situation where the market continues to see a lot of volatility, and of course noisy behavior to say the least. The market has a negative correlation to the US dollar and the interest rates coming out of the bond market. Ultimately, you also have to keep in mind that this is a market that is highly sensitive to industrial demand, as there is a lot of usage of silver in the manufacturing sector.

You should also keep in mind that the silver market has seen the $18 level offer a lot of support previously, and if we could break down below there, it’s likely that the market could break much lower, perhaps reaching to the $16 level, but even the $15 level. The markets will continue to be noisy, and of course we have a downtrend line this is just above.

The $20.00 level could be an area of significant resistance, so therefore I think signs of exhaustion could be difficult to overcome. That being said, we did form a hammer for the week, so that is obviously a bullish sign, and this of course is a situation where certain traders will be looking to it as a buying opportunity.

However, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that the silver market will collapse, because breaking down below support is one thing, but also breaking down below a hammer is another thing as well.

Silver Price Forecast Video for the Week of 03.10.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Slams Into a Trendline

Silver Markets Technical Analysis

Silver markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of volatility around the markets in general. It’s worth noting that the downtrend line has been intact since late spring, and so far has been rather crucial. At this point, the market is likely to continue seeing downward pressure and a squeeze, and in fact you can also make an argument that the market has continually found plenty of negativity.

The 50-Day EMA sits right there with the downtrend line, and therefore I think it is a major resistance barrier that’s going to be difficult to break above. Beyond that, we also have the $20 level that offers resistance, and therefore it’s likely that we would see plenty of sellers in that area as well. In other words, it’s going to take a lot of effort to get through all of that, perhaps some type of major fundamental change in the overall fundamental situation and of course central-bank attitudes.

On the other hand, we could drop from here and go down to the $18.00 level, which is the bottom of the overall market. Breaking down below that level then opens up the floodgates for a lot of selling pressure. Keep in mind that silver has a negative correlation to the US dollar and interest rates, so keep an eye on those as well. After all, silver is a highly sensitive metal when it comes to industrial demand, and therefore it’s likely that we continue to see an economic slowdown work against the value of this market. Ultimately, this is a very negative market and that has not changed.

Silver Price Forecast Video for 03.10.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Tests Resistance At $1675

Key Insights

  • Gold moved higher as Treasury yields declined. 
  • WTI oil pulled back despite rising geopolitical uncertainty. 
  • Natural gas continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at $6.90.

Gold Gains Ground Despite Stronger Dollar

Gold is trying to settle above the resistance at $1675 as Treasury yields decline. The U.S. dollar gained some ground against a broad basket of currencies today, but this move did not put any pressure on gold markets. It remains to be seen whether the recent increase in geopolitical tensions will provide more support to gold, but this scenario should not be ruled out.

Gold

Gold is currently trying to settle above the 20 EMA, which is located near the $1675 level. Previously, gold faced strong resistance near $1675, so it may need additional catalysts to settle above this level. A move above the 20 EMA will signal that gold will try to develop additional upside momentum.

Other precious metals are also moving higher. Silver settled above the $19 level. Platinum moved towards $870, while palladium continued to trade near $2200.

WTI Oil Pulls Back Ahead Of The Weekend

Interestingly, rising geopolitical tensions and new sanctions on Russia (which did not include oil) did not provide any support to oil markets.

WTI oil moved back below the $81 level as traders were worried that demand will slow down in the remaining months of the year.

From a big picture point of view, WTI oil remains in a strong downside trend, and it will need additional positive catalysts to settle above the key resistance at the 20 EMA near the $84 level.

Natural Gas Tests Resistance At $6.90

Natural gas continues its attempts to settle above the resistance at $6.90. Compared to the previous days, today’s trading session is calm.

Natural gas found significant support in the $6.55 – $6.75 range, but it remains to be seen whether it can attract enough buyers to get above the $7.00 level ahead of the weekend.

Copper Is Mostly Flat As Traders Wait For New Catalysts

Copper is trading near the $3.42 level as traders are not ready for big moves ahead of the weekend.

It looks that stronger dollar has also put some pressure on copper markets. Most likely, the real test of the 20 EMA at $3.45 will happen next week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold Update: Friday, September 30 – Gold’s Short-Term Consolidation

Gold Price Forecast

The gold futures contract lost 0.08% on Thursday, September 29, as it went sideways following its Wednesday’s rebound of 2.1%. On Wednesday the market got back above the $1,650 price level after reaching new medium-term low of $1,622.20. It was the lowest since Spring of 2020. This morning gold extended its short-term uptrend, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.2% higher this morning, as it is trading above the the $1,660 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.2% higher, platinum is virtually flat and palladium is 0.2% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are higher this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Unemployment Claims release has been lower than expected at 193,000. Today we will get the important Core PCE Price Index release at 8:30 a.m., among others.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Friday, September 30

  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone – CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m
  • 9:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Brainard Speech
  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Chicago PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
  • 11:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bowman Speech
  • 4:15 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Williams Speech
  • All Day, Canada – Bank Holiday

Monday, October 3

  • 9:45 a.m. U.S. – Final Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices
  • 11:30 p.m. Australia – Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement
  • All Day, Eurozone – German Bank Holiday

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

QE To Infinity Is Back! What Does That Mean For Commodities?

The Bank of England Went Into Crisis Mode

In one of the most major U-turns in monetary policy, ever seen in history – The Bank of England went into full financial crisis mode this week, rushing out an announcement that the central bank was restarting its money-printing presses at “whatever scale is necessary” – officially confirming that “QE To Infinity And Beyond” was back!

The UK bank’s extraordinary new round of quantitative easing will involve suspended a program to sell gilts – part of an effort to get rapidly surging inflation under control – and instead revert to buying long-dated bonds at a whopping rate of up to 5 billion pounds ($5.31 billion) a day.

Economists have warned that the injection of billions of pounds of newly minted money into the economy could fuel even greater inflation. “This move will be inflationary at a time of already sky-high inflation”, which Goldman Sachs predicts will hit 23% by next year.

Central bank interventions of this scale have not been seen since the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the Black Monday stock market collapse in 1987, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and more recently, the 2020 Pandemic.

The Bank of England’s actions represent the first big intervention from a G10 central bank in this monetary cycle to avert a global financial crisis – And it may not be the last!

It serves as a reminder to policymakers around the world that any perceptions by the market of a policy error will be heavily punished. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank hiking aggressively into a weakening economy – the big question is who will be next to turn on their money printing machines?

Only time will tell, however, the one thing we do know is that extraordinary times create extraordinary opportunities and right now as traders, we are living in some of the most rewarding times ever in history.

Impact on Commodity Prices

Following The Bank of England’s announcement a long-list of metals from Aluminium, Copper, Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Silver, Lithium, Uranium and Zinc prices surged to multi-month highs – registering their biggest one-day moves this year.

The bullish momentum also split over into other commodities with energies to soft commodities notching up impressive double digit gains – And this could just be the beginning!

Throughout this month’s reports we routinely highlighted that the commodity markets we’re on the verge of a massive breakout – presenting savvy traders with the ultimate opportunity to buy in at the lows. Once again, everything we identified has played out exactly as predicted!

Commodity Price Forecast Video for September 30, 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Natural Gas Declines As Inventories Increase

Key Insights

  • Natural gas declined towards the $6.70 level. 
  • WTI oil gained ground as U.S. dollar declined. 
  • Weaker dollar has also provided material support to precious metals. 

Natural Gas Slides Back To Recent Lows

Natural gas moved back to $6.70 after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the $7.00 level.

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report indicated that working gas in storage increased by 103 Bcf. At current levles, the total working gas is within the five-year historical range, which is mostly bearish for natural gas markets.

Traders continued to ignore the recent developments in Europe, where Nord Stream pipelines were damaged by explosions. At this point, it looks that the U.S. market will stay focused on the dynamics of demand after Hurricane Ian.

WTI Oil Continues To Rebound

WTI oil is currently trying to settle above the $82 level as the U.S. dollar pulls back from recent highs.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently gained downside momentum, which was bullish for commodities.

WTI Oil

From a big picture point of view, WTI oil remains in a downside trend. The previous attempts to rebound in August – September faced strong resistance. To have a chance to gain sustainable upside momentum, WTI oil must settle above the 20 EMA, which is located near the $84 level.

Gold Tests Resistance At $1660

The recent pullback in the U.S. dollar provided material support to gold, which managed to get back towards the resistance at $1660. Interestingly, Treasury yields are moving higher, but this move does not put material pressure on gold markets. At this point, it looks that gold traders will stay focused on the dynamics of the American currency.

Meanwhile, silver found support at $18.50 and moved towards $18.80. Platinum made an attempt to settle above the 20 EMA at $875, while palladium settled back above the $2200 level. I’d note that palladium gets additional support as traders evaluate the potential content of the next sanctions package on Russia, which may include some measures against Russia’s Norilsky Nickel.

Copper Rebounds As Dollar Pulls Back

Copper moved back above the $3.40 level as commodity markets rebounded. Weaker dollar has likely triggered this move.

From a big picture point of view, traders will stay focused on the economic outlook. In case recession fears put additional pressure on commodities, copper will get back to recent lows near the $3.25 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Continues to Compress

Silver Markets Technical Analysis

Silver has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of negativity, but we also continue to see buyers jump in and try to stabilize this market. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you have a lot of noise and compression going on, and this typically leads to an explosive move sooner or later. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see a lot of movement in one direction or the other.

Speaking of this, there is a lot of resistance above that we would have to overcome in order to get bullish. The 50-Day EMA sits at the $19.32 level, right around the downtrend line. After that, you then have to worry about the $20 level, and it’s only after a break of all of that you can look at this through the prism of a turnaround and a potentially bullish market. Furthermore, you would also need to see the Federal Reserve change its overall attitude, as the silver market is highly sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar.

The $18 level underneath should continue to be supported, had a breakdown below that level would be extraordinarily negative. The markets will continue to be paying close attention to whether or not there is going to be enough industrial demand to drive prices higher. That being said, it is worth noting that the market has been grinding lower for a while, and it’s going to take a lot to change that overall attitude, especially as silver is so volatile under the best of circumstances.

Silver Price Forecast Video for 30.09.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold Update: Thursday, September 29 – Gold Price Fluctuates Following Yesterday’s Rally

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 2.07% on Wednesday, September 28, as it retraced its recent declines following stocks markets’ rebound and weakening U.S. dollar. The market got back above the $1,650 price level yesterday after reaching new medium-term low of $1,622.20. It was the lowest since Spring of 2020. This morning gold is retracing some of its yesterday’s rally, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is 0.8% lower this morning, as it is trading along the the $1,650 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.5% lower, platinum is 0.6% lower and palladium is 1.6% higher. So the main precious metals’ prices are lower this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Pending Home Sales release has been lower than expected at -2.0% m/m. Today we will get the Final GDP, Unemployment Claims releases at 8:30 a.m. and the FOMC Members speeches later in the day.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Thursday, September 29

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index q/q
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – GDP m/m
  • 9:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

Thursday, September 29

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index q/q
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – GDP m/m
  • 9:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Opinion of China in advanced economies sours ‘precipitously’ under Xi – Pew

By James Pomfret

BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Public opinion towards China in the United States and other advanced economies has turned “precipitously more negative” under President Xi Jinping, according to a global survey by the Pew Research Center.

Xi, 69, is widely expected to win a precedent-breaking third five-year term as leader at a Communist Party congress that begins in Beijing on Oct. 16, securing his status as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

While China’s economic rise and its investments were seen as a positive for some Latin American, Middle Eastern and African countries, economic competition with China was seen as a “serious problem” in advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, the United States and Australia, according to Pew.

The survey, published on Wednesday, found that unfavourable views of China in developed economies had hovered in a relatively narrow band between 2002-2017, before worsening amid concerns including human rights and military power, with some of the sharpest changes between 2019 and 2020, Washington-based Pew said.

The shift in opinion was triggered partly by perceptions of China’s handling of COVID-19, which emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019, as well as a trade war with the United States, aggressive foreign policy and a military buildup in the South China Sea.

In the United States, 82% of respondents this year expressed an “unfavourable opinion” of China, up from 79% in 2020.

The percentage of those who said they had “no confidence” in Xi to do the “right thing regarding world affairs” was 87% in South Korea in 2022, up from 29% in 2015. In Britain, the figure increased to 70% in 2022 from 44% in 2014.

“Across advanced economies, there is very little confidence in Xi’s handling of world affairs and very negative views of the country, overall,” Laura Silver, a lead author of the report, told Reuters.

Some of the consequences of the deterioration included a pivot by countries like Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea towards increasingly favouring economic ties with the United States relative to China, she said.

While most respondents in North America and Europe said their countries should prioritise human rights in China above economic ties, a majority in Israel, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea said it was more important to strengthen economic relations with Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry rejected Pew’s findings when asked about them at a regular news conference on Thursday.

“The poll you mention was conducted among a small number of developed countries and is not representative of the views of the vast number of developing countries that make up nearly 90% of the world’s population,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters.

“President Xi Jinping is a leader who is well supported by 1.4 billion Chinese people and enjoys high prestige in the international community,” Wang added.

(Reporting by James Pomfret; Additional reporting by Martin Quin Pollard; Editing by Tony Munroe, Robert Birsel and Kim Coghill)

Gold Pulls Back As Dollar Rebounds After Yesterday’s Sell-Off

Key Insights

  • Gold failed to settle above the resistance at $1660 and declined towards the $1640 level as U.S. dollar moved closer to recent highs. 
  • Higher Treasury yields served as an additional bearish catalyst for gold markets. 
  • A move below the support at $1640 will push gold towards the next support level at $1620.

Gold Retreats As Treasury Yields Rise

Gold moved back below the $1650 level as the U.S. dollar rebounded after yesterday’s sell-off.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a broad basket of currencies, found support near 112.50 and returned to the 113.50 level.

This move was bearish for gold and other precious metals. Silver moved back to $18.65. Platinum declined towards the $850 level, while palladium slipped to $2125.

Treasury yields rebounded after yesterday’s pullback, which was also bearish for gold markets. The yield of 10-year Treasuries moved from 3.70% to 3.84%. The strong rebound in Treasury yields indicates that bond traders remain nervous.

A combination of stronger dollar and higher yields may put significant pressure on gold markets, which remain in a strong downside trend. Traders will certainly stay focused on these key catalysts in the upcoming trading sessions.

If the U.S. dollar moves back to multi-year highs, gold and other precious metals will find themselves under significant pressure. Traders should note that there is no demand for gold as a safe-haven asset right now as all the safe-haven money goes into the U.S. dollar.

Gold Tries To Settle Below The Support At $1640

Gold

Gold failed to settle above the resistance at $1660 and moved closer to the support level at $1640. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. If gold manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the next support at $1620. A successful test of the support at the $1620 level will open the way to the test of the support at $1600.

On the upside, a move above $1660 will push gold towards the resistance at the 20 EMA at $1675. If gold settles above the 20 EMA, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located at $1690. In case gold climbs above $1690, it will move towards the resistance at the 50 EMA at $1715.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Attempts a Relief Rally as the Dollar Falls From Its Highest Value Since May 1, 2002

U.S. Dollar Historical Analysis

Since May 2021 gains in the U.S. dollar can be best described as parabolic. The dollar index was trading at approximately 89.60 in January 2021, and in one year nine months have moved from just below 90 to 114.745 a total gain of 24.745 points. In other words, the dollar index when compared to a basket of six foreign currencies gained 21.91% in value.

The last time the dollar index was strong occurred in May 2002 as seen on the chart below labeled – Chart 1 – Monthly dollar index. The first time the dollar index closed above 114.75 was in October 2000 approximately 22 years ago.

Chart 1 – Monthly dollar index

The highest level the dollar index reached occurred just after the “great inflation” which began in 1979 and ended in 1983. During that time period, the United States had the highest level of inflation in history at approximately 14%. By 1983 aggressive action by the Federal Reserve headed by Chairman Paul Volker was able to take double-digit inflation down to an acceptable target of approximately 3.6%.

Chart 2 – Three Month dollar index

The chart above titled – Chart 2 – Three Month dollar index shows the highest level available in our database for the dollar index which was at 128.894 in November 1985. However, our database does not go back to February 1985 when the dollar index hit its highest value ever at 164.72. To view the dollar index at its all-time high we need to view a chart created and sourced from Stooq.com that can be seen below.

U.S. dollar index chart, source: Stooq

The point of viewing three extensive charts of the dollar index is to illustrate that its current value at 112.635 is most definitely at a 20-year high but far from the highest level ever seen in the dollar index.

Gold Today and Technical Analysis

Since gold is paired against the dollar index today’s decline of 1.24% in the dollar index was highly supportive of moving gold substantially higher. As of 5:34 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active December futures contract is currently trading almost 2% higher (1.97%) which amounts to a net gain of $32.30 and is fixed at $1668.50.

Chart 4 – Daily december gold chart

Chart 4 (above) is a Japanese candlestick chart in which each candle represents three days of trading. We have created a basic Fibonacci extension from the low of $1170.50 that occurred on August 15, 2018, up to the record high of approximately $2088 that occurred on August 6, 2020. We have highlighted two key retracement levels; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1737.10 as well as the 50% retracement level at $1628.90.

We have also created a red horizontal line at $1680 which we believe is a key and critical level of former support that was taken out last week. Today’s strong $32 move in December gold took pricing from the low one dollar above the 50% retracement at $1622.20 and closed just off of the high today of $1671.60 at $1660.50.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels for Gold and Silver

Based on the technical studies we presented in charts one, two, and four we have derived the following support resistance areas for both gold and silver. First, December gold currently has support at the 50% retracement at $1628.90. We believe that any rally could easily be short-lived if as I believe the dollar will only briefly decline before returning to a rally mode.

Therefore, we see the first level of resistance at $1680 with major resistance at $1737 which is based upon the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as seen in chart four. The 61.8% in the retracement set of the chart occurs at $1515 which I believe would be an unlikely point that gold would find support. It seems more likely that gold will find support between $1600 and $1620.

Although the dollar index is at a 20-year high as seen in the charts we have presented on a technical basis it could go much higher. Therefore, our technical studies indicate that major resistance occurs just above 120 in the dollar index based upon the highs first seen in October 2000.

Bottom Line

Today’s respectable gain in gold is most probably a relief rally based upon short covering and those market participants believing gold is so oversold that this is an opportunistic time to buy the dip. However, since gold prices are so deeply correlated to dollar strength or weakness, likely, further rate hikes or increases at the next two FOMC meetings this year could reignite dollar strength taking it passed its current high just below 115.

For those who would like more information simply use this link.

Wishing you as always good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner

WTI Oil Rallies As U.S. Domestic Production Declines

Key Insights

  • WTI oil rallied after bullish EIA report. 
  • Natural gas remained under pressure. 
  • Precious metals rebounded as dollar pulled back from highs. 

WTI Oil Settled Back Above The $80 Level

WTI oil gained strong upside momentum and moved back above the $81 level. Today, traders had a chance to take a look at the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels from the previous week. Analysts expected that crude inventories would increase by 0.4 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories declined by 2.4 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories grew by 2.9 million barrels.

U.S. domestic oil production declined from 12.1 million bpd to 12 million bpd, which served as a significant positive catalyst for oil markets.

Natural Gas Is Losing Ground Despite Bullish Sentiment In Commodity Markets

Natural gas moved towards the $6.50 level as traders remained focused on Hurricane Ian, which is expected to reduce demand for natural gas in the near term.

The strong rebound in global commodity markets failed to provide enough support to natural gas. The big story in Europe, where Nord Stream pipelines may be permanently destroyed after explosions due to potential corrosion, also had no impact on U.S. natural gas markets.

Gold Rebounds As Treasury Yields Pull Back From Highs

Gold moved back above the $1650 level as the U.S. dollar pulled back from multi-decade highs. Treasury yields have also moved lower as the appetite for risk increased. Currently, the yield of 10-year Treasuries is trying to settle below the 3.75% level. In case this attempt is successful, it will move towards the 3.70% level, which will be bullish for gold.

Gold

Currently, gold is trying to settle above the resistance at $1660. In case this attempt is successful, gold will move towards the next resistance level, which is located at $1675. A move above this level will push gold towards the resistance at $1690. If gold manages to settle back above $1690, it will head towards the 50 EMA at $1720.

On the support side, the nearest support level for gold is located at $1640. If gold settles below this level, it will head towards the next support at $1620. A successful test of the support at $1620 will open the way to the test of the next support at $1600.

Meanwhile, silver moved towards $18.80. Platinum managed to settle back above the $860 level, while palladium moved closer to $2150. In the near term, traders will stay focused on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, which will have a significant impact on precious metals.

Copper Tries To Settle Above $3.35

Copper rebounded to $3.35 as global commodity markets rebounded. Today’s global market mood is bullish, which provides material support to copper markets. It should be noted that the current rebound looks technical, and copper will likely need more positive catalysts for a sustainable upside move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Bounce From Big Figure

Silver Markets Technical Analysis

Silver markets have been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, as we drop down to the psychologically and structurally important $18 level, but then turned around to show signs of strength again. By doing so, the market looks like it is ready to try to fight its way back to the top of the range, but I would also point out that each successive rally has been lower than the one before it. It is because of this that I am not participating in the rally from the $18 level, but will be looking for an opportunity to fade that move.

The 50-Day EMA is sitting at the $19.35 level and dropping, while the downtrend line is sitting just above there, which is then followed by the $20 level, an area that I would imagine attracts a lot of attention in and of itself. With that being said, silver is probably in a situation where is going to be hypersensitive to the US dollar as per usual, and of course any signs of a global slowdown. Keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to economic pressures, due to the fact that it is considered to be an industrial metal. Yes, I know that you probably have been inundated by the idea of silver being a precious metal, but with the new “green technologies” out there, silver has become much more of an industrial one.

As long as the US dollar and bond yields in America continue to climb, silver has no real chance of strength. I think you are still looking at a “fade the rally” market in the near term, and probably will likely see $15 before it’s all said and done.

Silver Price Forecast Video for 29.09.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Will UK’s Currency Collapse Trigger The Next Global Financial Crisis?

Crises and Opportunities, We Have Both Now

This comes as no surprise, considering that online searches for trading have hit the highest on record since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 – as savvy traders rush to capitalize on the biggest and most explosive macro themes driving the markets right now from Inflation, Rate Hikes, Recession Risk, The Global Energy Shock – And of course the Global Currency Crisis that is currently unfolding!

As the famous saying goes – “do not waste a good crisis”.

Right now we have crisis on top of crisis, which as traders know – translates to opportunity on top of opportunity.

This is the time that traders wait decades because its times like these that gift regular people with an ultra-rare window of opportunity to create life-changing wealth!

British Pound Collapses

There is no deny that central banks across the world have dialled up their ambition to combat inflation in recent weeks. In response, traders have boosted odds that a major financial and economic crisis can’t be ruled out. That means global monetary policy hawkishness may have hit its peak and something will eventually break.

Earlier, this week top U.S Federal Reserve officials warned that the next global financial crisis will stem from the UK’s historic currency collapse.

The British pound fell to its lowest level ever against the dollar on Monday, prompting economists to compare its trajectory to that of an emerging market currency.

In a statement following UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s £45 billion tax-cutting package, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said the plan “has increase the chances of the world tipping into its next financial crisis.

Bostic’s comments came on the heels of a warning from former U.S Treasury secretary Larry Summers, who blasted the UK’s tax cuts as ‘utterly irresponsible’ and signalled “a currency crisis in a reserve currency could have significant global consequences”.

The sudden sell-off in the British pound comes as traders brace for more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England.

Last week the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voted to increase its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% – the highest since the global financial crisis, with a firm promise of further rate hikes to come.

The Bank of England next meets in November and traders have already starting pricing in expectations rates could rise above 6% next year.

As the British pound hits all-time record lows this week – Gold and other precious metals priced In British Pounds, which are all tradable across varies platforms hits all-time record highs.

With global monetary debasement now in full swing, the big question is will other fiat currencies face the same outcome?

Only time will tell, however, the one thing we do know is that extraordinary times create extraordinary opportunities and right now, this market is a traders dream – packed with unlimited money-making opportunities to capitalize on the short-term macro-driven volatility!

Gold Price Forecast Video for September 28, 2022

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

The U.S. 10-Year Real Yield Hits Its Highest in Over a Decade

Real Problems

With gold and mining stocks enjoying oversold bounces on Sep. 27, the pace of the PMs’ recent drawdowns was poised to normalize at some point. Also, since asset prices don’t move in a straight line, daily declines of 1% or more often result in countertrend rallies along the way.

However, with the PMs’ medium-term technical and fundamental outlooks supremely ominous, a hawkish Fed, higher real yields, and a stronger USD Index are poised to inflict more pain. To explain, I wrote on Apr. 11:

With real interest rates poised to turn positive in the coming months, gold should suffer profoundly once its war premiums unravel. 

The historical fundamental playbook shows:

  1. When a crisis erupts, the Fed cuts interest rates and commences QE;
  2. Real yields turn deeply negative;
  3. Gold rallies sharply;
  4. The Fed normalizes monetary policy, real yields surge, and gold plunges.

Please see below:

To explain, the gold line above tracks the price tallied by the World Gold Council, while the red line above tracks the inverted U.S. 10-Year real yield. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising red line represents a falling U.S. 10-Year real yield, while a falling red line represents a rising U.S. 10-Year real yield. 

Moreover, while I’ve shown variations of this chart before, the long-term implications are profound. For example, if you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that the U.S. 10-Year real yield soared and gold plunged during the global financial crisis (GFC). However, when the Fed launched QE and the U.S. 10-Year real yield sank to an all-time low, gold hit a new all-time high along the way. 

Furthermore, the current situation is a spitting image. When Fed Chairman Jerome Powell performed a dovish pivot in late 2018, the U.S. 10-Year real yield suffered. Then, when the Fed fired its liquidity bazooka in March 2020, it pushed the metric to another all-time low. And surprise, surprise, gold hit another all-time high.

However, we’re now in stage four of the historical fundamental playbook. With the Fed normalizing policy, the U.S. 10-Year real yield has surged in recent weeks. Moreover, the Fed needs to push the metric above 0% to curb inflation. 

To that point, with long-term Treasuries continuing their sell-offs on Sep. 27, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield closed at another 2022 high of 3.97%.

Please see below:

More importantly, the U.S. 10-Year real yield ended the Sep. 27 session at 1.64%, its highest level since 2010. Therefore, my prediction has proved prescient, even though gold has been a relative outperformer amid the chaos.

Please see below:

To explain, the U.S. 10-Year real yield is at its highest level in a decade-plus, while gold is relatively uplifted. Furthermore, a U.S. 10-Year real yield of 0% implies a gold price of $1,500, while the current reading of 1.64% should have gold south of $1,300.

So, what gives?

Well, for one, it’s not uncommon for assets to operate with a lag, meaning that gold will reconnect with the U.S. 10-Year real yield at some point, only the timing remains uncertain. As evidence, remember when I presented this chart throughout 2021 and 2022?

To explain, the green line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, while the red line above tracks the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate. The unprecedented gap on the right side of the chart shows how a low nominal rate (the green line) and a high breakeven rate (the red line) created a major imbalance and pushed the U.S. 10-Year real yield into deeply negative territory. For context, the latter sank to an all-time low of -1.17% in August 2021 and hit -1.04% on Mar. 8 during the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

However, significant imbalances don’t last forever. In fact, if you analyze the middle of the chart, you can see that the two lines reconnected after the 2013 taper tantrum and remained in contact for years after that. Therefore, when the U.S. 10-Year real yield hit 0% in April 2022, the reconnection was complete, and the 2020-2022 imbalance was erased.

As such, we find ourselves in an identical situation now. While gold has outperformed the U.S. 10-Year real yield, the pair should reconnect once again; and with the Fed forced to play catch-up due to 40+-year high inflation, gold is much more likely to collapse than the U.S. 10-Year real yield. Remember, I wrote the Fed needs to push the metric above 0% to curb inflation.

However, there is no magic real yield that sinks inflation. In reality, the Fed needs to keep pushing the metric higher until progress materializes. Moreover, I noted that Powell understands this and made the point for me during his June FOMC press conference.

Please see below:

Source: U.S. Fed

Thus, while Powell has achieved his objective of “positive real rates across the [yield] curve,” it only matters if real rates are high enough to reduce demand and alleviate inflation. If not, they need to go higher.

To that point, with the Cleveland Fed projecting the headline and core Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) to rise by 8.20% and 6.64% year-over-year (YoY) in September, the metrics are nowhere near normalized. As a result, the U.S. 10-Year real yield has the wind at its back, and gold should fall to restore the imbalance.

Please see below:

Source: Cleveland Fed

Also, please note that while gold has showcased immense resiliency in the face of elevated real yields and a soaring USD index, the GDXJ ETF hasn’t been so lucky.

Please see below:

To explain, the gold line above tracks the gold futures price, while the black line above tracks the GDXJ ETF. If you analyze the relationship, you can see that the pair remained close pre-pandemic. Conversely, with the junior miners materially underperforming gold post-pandemic, shorting the GDXJ ETF has proven profoundly wise and lucrative, as the junior miners have followed the real-yield roadmap to a greater extent.

In addition, the USD Index paints a similar portrait.

Please see below:

To explain, the gold line above tracks the gold futures price, while the black line above tracks the USD Index. If you analyze the middle of the chart, you can see that when the USD Index hit its ~2017 high, gold sank below $1,200.

However, while the USD Index closed well above its ~2017 high on Sep. 27, the yellow metal is much higher.

In contrast, the GDXJ ETF’s price action has been more formulaic.

Please see below:

To explain, the gold line above tracks the GDXJ ETF, while the black line above tracks the USD Index. If you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that the junior miners’ Sep. 27 closing price is much nearer the low set when the USD Index hit its ~2017 high. Thus, it’s another example of why choosing the right asset to short is just as important as being correct in your investment thesis.

Hawk Talk

With Fed officials back to parroting Chairman Jerome Powell’s future plans, his deputies reiterated his hawkish message. For example, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Sep. 26:

“We have to understand that inflation is going to be continuing to be hard to predict (…). We can’t have wishful thinking replace really compelling evidence. So before I conclude that inflation has peaked, I will need to see several months of declines in the month-over-month (MoM) readings.”

As a result, Mester was ominously honest about the economic challenges that lie ahead.

Please see below:

Source: MarketWatch

Likewise, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Sep. 27:

“[Inflation] is a serious problem and we need to be sure we respond to it appropriately. We have increased the policy rate substantially this year and more increases are indicated.”

He added that the U.S. federal funds rate (FFR) may need to reach “the 4.5% range,” as inflation is more resilient than Fed officials expected. As such, with the U.S. labor market on solid footing, officials remain focused on the other half of their dual mandate.

Please see below:

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Sep. 27 that “My own viewpoint is roughly in line with the median assessment” from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

“I had a sobering assessment that we’ve got more work ahead,” Evans said. “I’m optimistic that the peak that we’ve set out is going to be sufficiently restrictive that it could be enough.”

Thus, while I warned for months that reality would re-emerge, suddenly, a 4.5% FFR is the low-end of the consensus range.

Source: Reuters

The Bottom Line

While gold has relatively outperformed the U.S. 10-Year real yield and the USD Index, the GDXJ ETF has not. Moreover, the prior imbalance between the U.S. 10-Year Treasury and breakeven inflation rates is a cautionary tale of how history is undefeated. Therefore, the yellow metal should reconnect with the U.S. 10-Year real yield at some point, and we expect the normalization to occur through lower gold prices.

Furthermore, with Fed officials hawked up and pressing ahead with further rate hikes, the medium-term outlooks are bullish for the USD Index and the U.S. 10-Year real yield. Absent short-term sentiment rallies, gold, silver, and mining stocks should struggle in the following weeks and months.

In conclusion, the PMs were mixed on Sep. 27, as silver ended the day in the red. However, while oversold conditions may provide some short-term relief, the medium-term implications are unchanged: the precious metals remain in downtrends, and the technicals and the fundamentals signal lower lows in the months ahead. While I’m not making any promises with regard to price moves or profitability, in my opinion, the above also indicates that profits on our short positions in junior mining stocks are going to increase even further.

Thank you for reading our free analysis today. Please note that the above is just a small fraction of today’s all-encompassing Gold & Silver Trading Alert. The latter includes multiple premium details such as the targets for gold and mining stocks that could be reached in the next few weeks. If you’d like to read those premium details, we have good news for you. As soon as you sign up for our free gold newsletter, you’ll get a free 7-day no-obligation trial access to our premium Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. It’s really free – sign up today.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investment through Diligence & Care

* * * * *

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, September 28 – Gold Bounces From New Multi-Year Low

Gold Price Recap

The gold futures contract gained 0.17% on Tuesday, September 27, as it fluctuated following its recent declines. The market remained below the $1,650 price level yesterday, and it was the lowest since Spring of 2020 yesterday. This morning gold is bouncing from the new medium-term low of around $1,622, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

Precious Metals Price Action

Gold is virtually flat this morning, as it is trading along the the $1,630 level. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 1.1% lower, platinum is 1.0% lower and palladium is 0.3% lower. So the main precious metals’ prices are mixed this morning.

Fundamentals and Economic News Schedule

Yesterday’s Consumer Confidence release has been higher than expected at 108.0. Today we will get the Pending Home Sales release at 10:00 a.m., and another speech from the Fed Chair Powell at 10:15 a.m., among others.

Where would the price of gold go following last Wednesday’s Fed release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 66-month-long period of time that contains of forty five FOMC releases. The following chart shows average gold price path before and after the FOMC releases for the past 45 releases. The market was usually declining ahead of the FOMC day. Then it was going up for a week-long period. We can see that on average, gold price was 0.68% higher 10 days after the FOMC Statement announcement.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days.

Wednesday, September 28

  • 3:15 a.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Goods Trade Balance, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Pending Home Sales m/m
  • 10:10 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 10:15 a.m. U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speech
  • 11:00 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bowman Speech

Thursday, September 29

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index q/q
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – GDP m/m
  • 9:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Bullard Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Member Mester Speech

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Ford, GM upgrade their heavy-duty pickup profit machines

By Joseph White

DETROIT (Reuters) – Ford Motor Co on Tuesday took the wraps off the latest version of its Super Duty pickup, providing a look at how the U.S. automaker will manage one of the biggest challenges confronting Detroit.

The problem: How to modernize the largest combustion pickups to keep demand strong and profits flowing, without over-investing at a time when automakers need to spend on developing electric vehicles and battery factories.

At Ford, many of the newest things about the new Super Duty relate to connectivity and business productivity software that Ford hopes will generate revenue over the life of the vehicle. Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has stressed the importance of software-driven features and is hiring more executives with digital commerce experience.

Ford will install 5G modems in 2023 model Super Duty trucks to enable services such as driver behavior monitoring and digital paperwork systems for fleet operators. Dashboards have been reprogrammed to make it easier for companies that install specialized equipment such as hoisting arms to connect controls for their gear into the truck’s displays. Onboard scales will measure payloads and the new Super Duties will have more power plugs.

The Super Duty, General Motors Co’s rival Chevrolet Silverado HD and GMC Sierra HD heavy duty pickups and heavy duty versions of Stellantis NV’s Ram pickup are among the most profitable vehicles sold today by the Detroit Three automakers, or any rival.

Ford said the Super Duty franchise generates “more revenue than many Fortune 500 companies, including Southwest Airlines, Marriott International or Nordstrom.” Southwest reported $15.8 billion in revenue for 2021.

Powered by big diesel or gasoline engines, Super Duty prices start at $41,240, but can range up to more than $100,000 for a fully loaded model.

Heavy-duty pickups such as the Super Duty and Silverado HD do dirty work in oil fields and on construction sites. But many are sold to individuals who use them to tow large trailers, and want the same connectivity and comfort features they would expect in a luxury SUV.

For now, battery electric powertrains cannot provide the same towing capability and driving range for heavy-duty pickups as combustion powerplants. Both Ford and GM are upgrading existing engines and transmissions, but not investing what it would take to develop new powertrains from scratch.

Ford on Tuesday unveiled the latest generation of the Super Duty at Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky, not far from the factory where most Super Duty trucks are built.

Ford said Tuesday it will spend $700 million modernizing the Kentucky Truck plant, and expects to hire another 500 workers at the plant to support Super Duty production.

One day ahead of Ford’s Super Duty reveal, Chevrolet outlined a list of improvements to its Silverado HD heavy pickup line, which trails the Super Duty in sales.

Chevrolet said it will now offer only a 10-speed Allison transmission on its heavy duty Silverado trucks. The 6.6 liter diesel engine’s horsepower and torque get a boost, and certain models get upgraded interiors with bigger display screens.

(Reporting By Joe White; Editing by David Gregorio)

WTI Oil Tries To Rebound After Sell-Off

Key Insights

  • WTI is moving higher amid reports about OPEC+ plans to cut production. 
  • Natural gas moves lower as Hurricane Ian may put pressure on demand. 
  • Precious metals gain some ground as dollar pulls back from highs.

WTI Oil Found Support Near $76.50

WTI oil is up by about 2% as traders react to Russia’s plans to reduce OPEC+ production by 1 million bpd at the next meeting. The reports have not received official confirmation but traders believe that they are credible.

OPEC+ fails to meet its quotas due to production problems in certain member countries. Saudi Arabia, which has the technical ability to produce more oil, did not commit to raising production amid recession worries.

WTI Oil

WTI oil is trying to gain some upside momentum after finding support near $76.50. It remains to be seen whether this attempt will be successful amid recession fears. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

Natural Gas Is Losing Ground As Hurricane Ian May Cut Demand

Natural gas is trading below the $7.00 level as traders prepare for Hurricane Ian, which will likely reduce demand.

In Europe, natural gas prices gained strong upside momentum after mysterious leaks in Nord Stream pipelines. At this point, it looks that these leaks were caused by explosions, and the pipelines will not work in winter even if EU and Russia reach a consensus deal on natural gas. Obviously, this is bullish for the European natural gas prices.

In the U.S., traders will stay focused on the domestic developments in the near term. Freeport LNG is expected to be partially operational by the end of November. Until then, the U.S. cannot increase its exports, which is a bearish factor for U.S. natural gas prices.

Precious Metals Attempt To Rebound

Precious metals are moving higher after yesterday’s sell-off. The U.S. dollar has pulled back from recent highs, providing some support to this market segment.

Gold managed to get above the $1630 level while silver moved towards $18.50. Platinum rebounded towards $850, and palladium climbed back to $2100.

It remains to be seen whether precious metals will be able to gain additional upside momentum as Treasury yields keep moving higher.

Copper Remains Stuck Near $3.30

Copper is trading near the $3.30 level as traders remain worried about the slowdown of the world economy.

Government bond yields are moving higher at a robust pace in most developed countries, which will put additional pressure on economic activity. This is a bearish development for copper markets.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Attempts to Balance

Silver Markets Technical Analysis

Silver markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to bounce a bit from extreme oversold conditions. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of resistance above, so I think this rally and stop offering a nice selling opportunity. This would be especially true as the US dollar is so strong, and of course interest rates have been rising. Remember, silver has a huge negative correlation to all of that, and therefore you need to be cautious of what’s going on.

$18 underneath is an area that people have paid attention to previously and has been an area of support a couple of times. If we were to break down below there, then it opens up the possibility of the market dropping down to the $15 level. The $15 level is psychologically and structurally important, but not nearly as important as the $12 level underneath, which I think it’s where we finally start to see significant buying pressure.

On the other hand, if we were to take off to the upside and break above the $20 level, it’s likely that the trend has changed, but we would need to see some type of difference in the Federal Reserve and its actions, and of course it’s monetary policies. Ultimately, the interest rates strengthening work against silver as well, and you need to pay attention to whether or not there is going to be enough demand out there for industrial metals, which of course silver is one of the biggest. With that, I think you have a “fade the rally” set up coming in the next couple of days.

Silver Price Forecast Video for 28.09.22

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.