Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Tries To Gain More Ground Ahead Of The Weekend

Silver Video 11.09.20.

Silver Tries To Stay Above The 20 EMA

Silver made an attempt to settle below the 20 EMA at $26.75 but managed to stay above this key support level as the U.S. dollar remained under some pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has managed to stay above its 20 EMA at 93.10 but stays well below the nearest resistance level at 93.50. The U.S. dollar may get some additional support from strong U.S. inflation numbers since both Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate  for August were higher than analyst expectations.

If the U.S. Dollar Index continues its rebound, silver will likely dip below the 20 EMA and gain more downside momentum.

Meanwhile, gold has also managed to stay above its 20 EMA at $1945 and maintains chances to gain more momentum and get to the test of the psychologically important $2000 level. If this happens, silver will get a boost.

Gold/silver ratio is still stuck in a rather tight range between 71 and 73. Gold/silver ratio’s 20 EMA is at 72.85, and a move above this level will be bearish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 11 2020

Silver continues to trade close to the $27 level and will likely remain sensitive to the trading dynamics of the American currency.

If silver stays above the 20 EMA, it will have a good chance to develop more upside momentum and get to the test of the next resistance level at $27.75. Yesterday, silver tried to move towards this level but its uspide move was stopped near $27.50 by the sudden rebound of the U.S. dollar.

In case silver manages to settle above the resistance at $27.75, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the test of the next resistance level at $28.50.

A move above $28.50 will provide silver with a chance to test the next resistance at $28.90.

On the support side, the 20 EMA remains the nearest support level for silver. If silver manages to get below this level, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the test of the next support level at $25.85.

If silver moves below the support at $25.85, it will head towards the next support level at $24.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Precious Metals Fluctuate Following Recent Gains

The gold futures contract gained 0.48% on Thursday, as it extended Wednesday’s advance of 0.6%. The market has retraced most of the recent decline from September 1 local high of $2,001.20. On Friday intraday volatility has been relatively low despite monthly jobs data release. And the stock market’s rout didn’t trigger any significant move in gold. Gold price is trading within a month-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Gold is 0.1% lower this morning, as it is trading along yesterday’s closing price. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 0.77% on Thursday and today it is 0.3% lower. Platinum gained 1.74% and today it is 0.4% higher. Palladium gained 0.55% on Thursday and today it’s 0.1% lower. So precious metals are slightly retracing their yesterday’s advances this morning.

Yesterday’s U.S. Producer Price Index release has been slightly higher than expected, and the Unemployment Claims have been at 884,000 vs. the expected number of 838,000. Today we will get the Consumer Price Index release at 8:30 a.m.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for today:

Friday, September 4

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – German Buba President Weidmann Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Federal Budget Balance
  • All Day, Eurozone – Eurogroup Meetings

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Gold Forecast – Gold Pattern Supports A Breakdown Below $1900

The grinding consolidation in precious metals has been frustrating. Gold is working on a B-wave triangle that should break below $1900 within the next week or two. Our analysis remains on track for a 6-month low and subsequent buying opportunity by late September or early October.

Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished Thursday at 295. After peaking at 450 in August, it continues the descent toward cycle bottoming (green zone). The 6-month low should arrive once the value dips below 100 (currently 295).

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-GOLD- Gold continues to grind out a B-wave triangle before its decline towards $1750 – $1800. Technically, prices could bounce a little higher to tag the upper triangle boundary near $1985, but it’s not a requirement. Once the triangle is complete, prices should turn lower and break sharply below the $1900 level. I think $1750 is likely.

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-SILVER- Silver continues to consolidate. As with gold, I think it’s just a matter of time before prices break lower. Initial support at $22.50 and then around $19.00 if prices selloff sharply. I’m very bullish on silver long-term.

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-GDX- The morning gap higher failed, once again. Prices continue to make lower highs with each rebound, which should eventually lead to a sharp break below $39.00 later this month. My ideal target for a 6-month low remains between $31.00 – $33.00.

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-GDXJ- Juniors also failed to maintain its morning gap, and I continue to expect a breakdown below $54.00. Ideal target between $40.00 – $44.00.

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-SPY- The attempted rebound in stocks failed to regain the 10-day EMA (341.76), and I see the potential for an accelerated decline below 330. Initial target 300 with 285 (or lower) possible if we get another panic type liquidation.

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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit here.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Rally Significantly

Silver markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the $28 level. That is an area that has been important a couple of times now, so do not be surprised at all to see this market react a bit towards that level. If we do break above the $28 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the $29 level.

At this point, the market looks very likely to see a bit of upward pressure, but there are some hurdles to clear between now and then. In the short term, buying dips should continue to work as the $26 level looks to be very supportive. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues offer value on dips, but you should be very cautious about your position size, as the market does tend to be very volatile and that is of course very expensive.

SILVER Video 11.09.20

The 50 day EMA is starting to reach towards the $25 level, and that could very well become the “floor in the market” going forward. I think at this point in time it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy trading, but more of an upward proclivity than anything else right now. Even if the US dollar rises, there is an argument to be made for silver rally in doing to the fact that the central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy, not just the Federal Reserve. In other words, people are going to be looking for a certain amount of wealth preservation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Weak U.S. Dollar Pushed Silver Above $27.00

Silver Video 10.09.20.

Silver Gained Upside Momentum After The Release Of U.S. Employment Reports

Silver managed to settle above the 20 EMA at $26.80 and is trying to get to the test of the next resistance level at $27.75 as the U.S. dollar is under serious pressure after the release of disappointing U.S. employment reports.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a broad basket of currencies, has developed material downside momentum and declined below the 20 EMA at 93.05.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports were worse than analyst expectations and indicated that the labor market recovery had stalled.

Weak U.S. dollar is bullish for silver as it makes silver cheaper for buyers who have other currencies. If the U.S. Dollar Index declines towards the next support level at 92.50, silver will have good chances to get above the nearest resistance level at $27.75.

Not surprisingly, gold has also benefited from U.S. dollar weakness. Currently, gold managed to settle above the $1950 level and is moving towards the psychologically important $2000 level. If gold gets above the $2000 level, the whole precious metal segment will likely get a material boost.

Gold/silver ratio continues to stay in a range between 71 and 73. The recent attempt to get above the 20 EMA at 72.80 was not successful, and gold/silver ratio maintains solid chances to develop more downside momentum which would be bullish for silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 10 2020

Silver is currently trying to gain more upside momentum above $27.00. If this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the test of the next resistance level at $27.75.

A move above the resistance at $27.75 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at $28.50. In case silver is able to get above $28.50, it will move towards the next resistance at the recent highs at $28.90.

On the support side, the nearest support for silver is located at the 20 EMA at $26.80. If silver manages to settle below the 20 EMA, it will gain more downside momentum and head towards the next support level at the recent lows at $25.85.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Precious Metals Mixed Ahead of ECB Release

The gold futures contract gained 0.60% on Wedsnesday, as it continued to fluctuate within a short-term consolidation following last week’s decline. The market bounced off $2,000 resistance level. On Friday the intraday volatility has been relatively low despite monthly jobs data release. And the stock market’s rout didn’t trigger any significant move in gold recently. Gold price is trading within a month-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Gold is 0.1% higher this morning, as it is trading along yesterday’s closing price. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 0.34% on Wednesday and today it is 0.5% higher. Platinum gained 1.60% and today it is 0.2% lower. Palladium gained 0.54% on Wednesday and today it’s 0.6% lower. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

Yesterday’s JOLTS Job Openings release has been better than expected at 6.62 million. Today we will get the ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 7:45 a.m. and the ECB Press Conference at 8:30 a.m. We will also get the U.S. Producer Price Index along with the Unemployment Claims releases at 8:30 a.m.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Thursday, September 3

  • 7:45 a.m. Eurozone – Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement
  • 8:30 a.m. Eurozone – ECB Press Conference
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • 12:30 a.m. Canada – BOC Governor Macklem Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech

Friday, September 4

  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone – German Buba President Weidmann Speech
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – Federal Budget Balance
  • All Day, Eurozone – Eurogroup Meetings

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Showing Signs of Support

Silver markets dipped a bit during the trading session on Wednesday only to turn around and show signs of life again. We are grinding higher and I think that makes quite a bit of sense as central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy regimes that they are in. This means that people will start looking for other ways to preserve their well, as fiat currencies lose value. Because of this, I think it provides a bit of a floor underneath the gold and silver markets, so I do like the idea of picking up silver “on the cheap.” I do believe that traders will continue to look at silver as a bit of a mixed bag though, because silver also has a significant industrial component built-in as well. After all, it is used in a lot of manufacturing.

SILVER Video 10.09.20

To the downside, I see the $26 level as massive support, and I think that it more than likely will continue to act as such. I do not have any interest in trying to short this market though, because even if we break down below there, the 50 day EMA will come back into the picture, and that of course the $24 level. In other words, there are plenty of potential support levels underneath that will come into play. The trend has been higher for some time, as we have been grinding up words, with all that in the back of my mind, I find it difficult to short silver from a longer-term structural standpoint. This does not mean that we cannot fall, just that the fundamentals are helping.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Gets Back Above The 20 EMA

Silver Video 09.09.20.

Silver Tries To Continue Its Rebound

Silver managed to stay above the 20 EMA at $26.75 as the U.S. dollar pulled back after the recent rebound.

Yesterday, silver made a very serious attempt to settle below the 20 EMA and traded as low as $25.85. However, it managed to rebound and stays near the key support at the 20 EMA.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a broad basket of currencies, made an attempt to settle above 93.50 but failed to gain sufficient upside momentum and declined towards 93.25.

The key catalyst for this move was the rebound of GBP/USD which managed to gain some ground after a major sell-off which was caused by fears of hard Brexit.

If the U.S. Dollar Index continues to lose ground and gets to the support at the 20 EMA at 93.05, silver will likely gain more upside momentum.

Meanwhile, gold is trying to get above its 20 EMA at $1945. If this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the psychologically important $2000 level and provide support to the whole precious metal sector.

Gold/silver ratio is still located in the range between 71 and 73. Gold/silver ratio has been mostly stable for a month which is a bullish factor for silver since gold/silver ratio did not manage to rebound after a very strong downside move.

Technical Analysis

silver september 9 2020

Silver is currently trying to gain more upside momentum above the 20 EMA at $26.75. If this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the nearest resistance level at $27.75.

A successful test of the resistance at $27.75 will open the way to the next resistance level at $28.50.

On the support side, the 20 EMA will continue to serve as the first important support level for silver. Silver needs to settle below the 20 EMA to have a chance to develop more downside momentum.

The support at $26.20 did not present itself during the recent sell-off, so the next support level for silver is located at the recent lows at $25.85.

If silver manages to settle below this support level, it will move towards the next support at $24.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Wednesday, September 9 – Gold Still Sideways

The gold futures contract gained 0.46% on Tuesday, as it extended its short-term consolidation following last week’s Wednesday’s decline of over 1.7%. The market bounced off $2,000 resistance level. On Friday the intraday volatility has been relatively low despite monthly jobs data release. And the stock market’s rout didn’t trigger any significant move in gold recently. Gold price is trading within a month-long consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Gold is 0.5% lower this morning, as it is trading within yesterday’s range. What about the other precious metals? Silver gained 1.04% on Tuesday and today it is 0.7% lower. Platinum gained 1.35% and today it is unchanged. Palladium lost 1.60% on Tuesday and today it’s 1.0% lower. So precious metals are lower this morning.

Today we will get the JOLTS Job Openings release at 10:00 a.m. At the same time, Bank of Canada’s monetary policy update will be released.

The market will wait for Thursday’s ECB Monetary Policy Statement along with the ECB Press Conference.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Wednesday, September 2

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings
  • 10:00 a.m. Canada – BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate

Thursday, September 3

  • 7:45 a.m. Eurozone – Main Refinancing Rate, Monetary Policy Statement
  • 8:30 a.m. Eurozone – ECB Press Conference
  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • 12:30 a.m. Canada – BOC Governor Macklem Speech
  • 1:00 p.m. Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Form Ugly Candle

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday overnight, but the American traders came back and punished the market as there is a significant amount of fear out there, and of course the US dollar strengthened slightly during the trading session as well. That being said, there is still a significant amount of support near the $26 level, and of course the 50 day EMA which is racing towards the $25 level right now. With that being the case, I do like the idea of buying silver on dips, but I also recognize that the volatility is going to continue to be a major problem.

SILVER Video 09.09.20

To the upside, I see the $28 level as a potential area of resistance that extends to the $29 level. After that, we have the psychologically important and significant $30 level which is a significant barrier to overcome. Ultimately, this is a market that breaking above the $30 level will start to take off to the upside rather significantly. Historically speaking, the silver market tends to go looking towards the $50 level over the longer term. Granted, that is a very long term call, but I do think that it is very possible that we get something like that.

That being said, pay attention to the US dollar as it is a major contributor to where the silver markets go, so if it starts the weekend, that will be very good for silver. All of this being said, it does look as if the silver market should continue to go higher given enough time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Strong U.S. Dollar Puts Pressure On Silver

Silver Video 08.09.20.

Silver May Gain Additional Downside Momentum

Silver declined below the nearest support level at the 20 EMA at $26.70 as the U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle above its 20 EMA at 93 and continued its upside move.

Finally, the American currency was able to continue its rebound against a broad basket of currencies, helped by the continued sell-off in S&P 500 which increased demand for safe-haven assets. This move put significant pressure on various dollar-denominated commodities, including silver.

The nearest resistance lvel for the U.S. Dollar Index is located near 93.50. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the 50 EMA at 94.10, which will be a bearish development for silver.

Stronger U.S. dollar has also put pressure on gold which has declined closer to the 50 EMA at $1905. In case gold moves below the 50 EMA, it will gain more downside momentum which will be bearish for the whole precious metal segment.

Gold/silver ratio continues to stay in the range between 71 and 73. Currently, it is trying to get to the test of the nearest resistance level at the 20 EMA at 73. In case gold/silver ratio manages to settle above the 20 EMA, it will gain more upside momentum and put additional pressure on silver.

Technical Analysis

silver september 8 2020

Silver managed to get below the 20 EMA at $26.70 and is trying to develop more downside momentum. RSI is in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum.

The nearest support level for silver is located at $26.20. If silver manages to settle below this support level, it will head towards the next support at $24.95. There are no material levels between $24.95 and $26.20 so this move may be fast.

In case silver gets below the support at $24.95, it will move towards the next support at the 50 EMA at $24.50.

On the upside, the previous support at the 20 EMA at $26.70 will serve as the first resistance level for silver. If silver is able to settle above the 20 EMA, it will move towards the next support at $27.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Stocks Set To Open Lower As Tech Sell-Off Continues

Tesla Sinks As It Was Not Added To S&P 500 During The Latest Rebalance

S&P 500 futures are losing more than 1% in premarket trading as the sell-off in the tech space continues. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is losing more than 3% ahead of the market open.

There is no clear catalyst for this sell-off. Some analysts believe that the market reacts to the news that Japan’s investment firm SoftBank amassed options of tech stocks and is trying to unload positions to take profits.

However, the rally in tech stocks was so powerful that many traders have considerable unrealized gains, which creates an environment for a significant pullback.

All high-flying tech shares are deep in the red in premarket trading. Tesla is under especially big pressure, losing roughly 15% ahead of the market open, as it was not included in S&P 500 during the latest reshuffle.

WTI Oil Remains Under Significant Pressure

The sell-off in oil intensified after Saudi Arabia decided to cut prices for its customers in order to protect its market share. The market viewed the move as a sign of a weak demand.

In addition, the U.S. dollar continued its rebound against a broad basket of currencies, and the U.S. Dollar Index moved towards the next resistance at 93.50.

A strong dollar serves as a bearish catalyst for all dollar-denominated commodities. Gold and silver are also under pressure today.

The oil market sell-off will certainly make things worse for oil-related equities which are already losing ground in premarket trading. Precious metals miners may also have a challenging session in case gold and silver continue to move lower.

Brexit Is Back Into Spotlight

UK set a deadline of October 15 to reach consensus on the trade deal with EU. According to recent reports, UK was planning to make changes to some parts of Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, which is unacceptable for EU.

Both sides are now increasing their preparations for the hard Brexit although negotiations will continue. At this point, the British pound is the main victim of this story, and GBP/USD lost a lot of ground in recent trading sessions.

A no-deal Brexit will put additional pressure on the European economy at times when it tries to recover from the acute phase of the coronavirus crisis. Other markets will also feel the shock waves of hard Brexit so traders around the world are watching the story closely.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Tuesday, September 8 – Precious Metals Continue Lower

The gold futures contract lost 0.18% on Friday, as it continued to fluctuate following Wednesday’s decline of over 1.7%. The intraday volatility has been relatively low despite monthly jobs data release. Today gold price continues slightly lower, as it trades 0.5% below yesterday’s closing price. The yellow metal remains within a short-term consolidation, as Friday’s gold futures chart shows:

What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.8% lower this morning. Platinum is 1.2% lower and Palladium is 0.1% lower. So precious metals are going down this morning.

Today we won’t get any important economic data releases.

The market will wait for Thursday’s ECB Monetary Policy Statement along with the ECB Press Conference.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Tuesday, September 1

  • 6:00 a.m. U.S. – NFIB Small Business Index
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Wednesday, September 2

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings
  • 10:00 a.m. Canada – BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Gapped Higher to Kick Off the Week

Silver markets gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday, showing signs of strength again. Ultimately, this is a market that has been bullish for some time so I am not surprised at all to see that we might see some strength here. Short-term pullback should be buying opportunities, as silver has been so strong over the last several months. The fact that we are grinding sideways with a slightly upward twist suggest that we are going to continue to go higher. All things being equal, the $26 level underneath should be supported, just as the 50 day EMA is starting to reach towards the $25 level underneath there.

SILVER Video 08.09.20

Looking at this chart, it is obvious that the $30 level above is a major resistance barrier, so it is very likely that we will see the market struggle to get above there. However, we do break above the $30 level it is likely that the market goes much, much higher. I think Federal Reserve monetary policy will continue to drive silver higher over the longer term, but we may have some choppiness to deal with in the short term. If we break down below the $24 level, that could suggest significant selling pressure, perhaps reaching down towards the 200 day EMA which is closer to the $20 level. With this, it is only a matter of time before buyers return in theory, so therefore I look at this as a potential “buy on the dips” type of scenario, just as it has been for some time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Stays Near The 20 EMA

Silver Video 07.09.20.

Silver Is Little Changed On Labor Day Holiday In U.S.

Silver continues to trade near the 20 EMA at $26.70 as the U.S. dollar remains mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies.

U.S. Dollar Index is once again trying to settle above the key 93 level. Today, the U.S. financial markets are closed due to Labor Day holiday, so trading dynamics of the American currency may be muted.

However, if the U.S. Dollar Index manages to gain upside momentum above the 93 level, silver may find itself under significant pressure.

Meanwhile, gold remains below the 20 EMA at $1945. In the recent trading sessions, the 20 EMA served as a significant resistance level for gold. In case gold fails to get above the 20 EMA in the upcoming trading sessions, it will likely gain more downside momentum which will be bearish for silver.

Gold/silver ratio continues to trade in a range between 71 and 73. Gold/silver ratio has been in this range since mid-August and made a single attempt to move out of the range when it tested the support at 69.50. If gold/silver ratio continues its previous downside trend, silver will have good chances to test the nearest resistance level at $27.75.

Technical Analysis

silver september 7 2020

Silver is currently trying to find support near the key 20 EMA level. In case silver manages to stay above the 20 EMA, it will gain more upside momentum and head towards the test of the next resistance level at $27.75.

Silver’s RSI is in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain more momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If silver moves above the resistance at $27.75, it will head towards the next resistance at $28.50.

On the support side, a move below the 20 EMA will be very problematic for silver bulls at it will indicate that silver lost its upside momentum. The next support level for silver is located at $26.20.

If silver manages to settle below the support at $26.20, it will gain more downside momentum and decline towards the next support level at $24.95.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Daily Gold News: Monday, September 7 – Gold Price Continues Sideways

The gold futures contract lost 0.18% on Friday, as it continued to fluctuate following Wednesday’s decline of over 1.7%. The intraday volatility has been relatively low despite monthly jobs data release. And the stock market’s rout didn’t trigger any significant move in gold last week. Gold price is extending its consolidation, as we can see on the daily chart:

Gold is 0.3% lower this morning, as it is flucutating within its Friday’s daily trading range. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 0.61% on Friday and today it is 0.5% lower. Platinum gained 0.97% and today it is 0.7% lower. Palladium gained 0.93% on Friday and today it’s 0.1% lower. So precious metals are slightly lower this morning.

Today we won’t get any important economic data releases. Because of the Labor Day holiday, there will be no regular trading in the U.S. today.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number has been as expected at +1,371 million. But the Unemployment Rate has declined to 8.4% vs. the expected 9.8%.

Where would the price of gold go after the monthly jobs data release? We’ve compiled the data since September of 2018, a 24-month-long period of time that contains of twenty four NFP releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the NFP release. We can see that the biggest 10-day advance after the NFP day was +6.6% in February of 2020 and the biggest decline was -12.7% in March of 2020. However, we’ve had an increased volatility following coronavirus fear then.

The following chart shows the average gold price path before and after the NFP releases for the past 24 months. The market was usually fluctuating for a week before advancing and closing 0.5% higher on the 10th day after the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Monday, September 7

  • All Day, U.S. – Bank Holiday

Tuesday, September 1

  • 6:00 a.m. U.S. – NFIB Small Business Index
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Thank you for reading today’s free analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. If so, we would like to invite you to sign up for our free gold newsletter. Once you sign up, you’ll also get 7-day no-obligation trial of all our premium gold services, including our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up today!

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

COMEX’s Gold and Silver Futures Market Trade Data Not Adding Up

So far in 2020, the exchange has seen 172k contracts of 100 oz gold delivered, valued at $25.7 billion. Silver deliveries in 2020 have been even more extraordinary, with 43,798 contracts of 5000 oz silver delivered, valued at $5.8 billion.

These are large numbers for the precious metals market which does not routinely see so much physical settlement in a year. The vast majority of contracts are rolled into the next available delivery months, or settled for cash.

This basically means players on the market are looking to take the metal off the hands of traders and put it into safe storage. And while the numbers of physical deliveries have been staggering this year, gold being taken off market has been a trend dating back to the tech crisis in 2000. The following chart, for instance, shows that majority of gold stored in COMEX allocated to the “eligible” category, which is vault storage and NOT used in futures market trading. See chart below from goldchartsrus.com.

So the fact that deliveries have ramped up on the metals is not surprising, and it could be that we are in a short squeeze in the market for the metals. While the COMEX claims there is enough gold in registered to satisfy current deliveries, we have started to see some anomalies in the data which potentially paint a different picture.

Shadow Contracts

On August 28th, the last day of the month to roll over an existing September contract to the next active contract month in December, we see CME group reporting open interest of 3070 contracts. See screenshot from the CME website below.

What is interesting is that you are not supposed to be able to deliver more contracts of gold ounces in a month for which you have open interest, because you can only deliver against open contracts. Typically, we see many contracts rolled until the last day and then the rest are settled. But so far for September, the CME group is reporting 3457 contracts posted for delivery, or 387 more than the 3070 that should have been available to be posted. And we are only 6 days into the month of September, at time of this writing.

What gives on the COMEX? We are not sure, but it sure looks suspiciously like we have a “shadow” contract being presented on COMEX for delivery. That, or all of the CME group accountants need to be fired for failing to do basic math correctly.

The errors could be forgiven if they miscalculated the amount of paper futures contracts rolling from one month to the next. Well not really, but at least it would have much less effect on the overall price of gold. Why is this? Because as we have shown numerous times this year on our site, when physical deliveries pick up, the prices of gold and silver always follow.

And this is to be expected, because while the COMEX allows as many paper derivative contracts to be placed as bets on the market price, we only have a finite amount of the real metals available on the market at any given time. Those cannot be printed up at the push of a button on a computer like the paper contracts can be. This has two effects on the market.

First, when the physical deliveries are miscounted, the paper contract derivative trades overstate short term speculative interest in the metals versus those willing to take ownership. Secondly, and probably more importantly, it overstates the amount of physical metals available for delivery on the futures market for those that want to take delivery. It basically amounts to fraud, much as if your bank claimed to have enough cash for your deposit, and then notified you when you showed up to the bank that you would have to wait 2-3 months to get your cash.

Contract Volume Discrepancies

Since we have been watching the COMEX so intently this year, we have noticed some other discrepancies in the reported contract volume on COMEX. The next series of screenshots shows various daily reports in which the CME group reported more physical deliveries that day than the amount of closed contracts.

That again appears to indicate physical gold and silver are being exchanged without closure of a corresponding contract. Does this mean gold and silver are being raided off the COMEX market without a corresponding futures contract settlement? You can decide this for yourself, since CME group has never provided the transactional data needed to “true up”, from an audit perspective, their aggregate trading volumes.

Gold

Silver

Concluding Thoughts

Looking at the shadow contracts and discrepancies in daily contract numbers makes on question all of the gold and silver market data reported by the CME group for the COMEX market. Who knows how long the mistakes in accounting have been allowed to exist. Just because the CME reports a number, I know of no audit of the transactional data published to guarantee its authenticity.

If the market is misreporting the amount of open contracts and the deliveries of physical gold and silver, then how can market participants rely on this data to make trading decisions on the futures market?

Further, how do we all now value the gold and silver prices used in our daily physical transactions? The answer is we don’t, and this will lead to a new era in how the public views the gold and silver market. While these shadow transactions exist in particular, I expect the market to heavily question COMEX’s reported physical inventories. Just like a fear of cash shortages would cause a run on the banking system, fears of physical precious metals could cause a run on whatever is left in the COMEX warehouses.

Then we would see a rapid change in the prices of gold and silver, which would have to be determined off-exchange. These would seemingly come from physical market exchanges by large parties, from banks to wealthy individuals. It may be much harder to pry gold and silver from their current owners if they are unsure current prices are high enough to properly value them.

And then what happens to the miners? If they do not have a legitimate pricing mechanism via the COMEX, how do they forecast metals prices for their mine business models? We may see a flurry of independent contract negotiations from merchants using the metal directly to the miners producing it, circumventing the whole futures exchange model.

We will see how long the issues persist in the CME futures data reporting. But it is becoming clear that the system that the world uses to value precious metals may about to undergo rapid changes when the world finds out how unstable that system currently is.

Bitcoin Down Almost 10% Today, You’ll Be Surprised to Hear What’s Next

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Bitcoin collapsed near Triple Fib Amplitude Arcs – is this a sign of pending reversal for other assets?
  • It is very likely that Bitcoin price levels will fall below the May through July levels, near $9k in an attempt to identify new support levels. The $8k level would be the next downside price target.  Beyond that, possibly $7k or even $6k.
  • Gold and Silver will move lower before going higher as a potential price collapse in Bitcoin suggests general market fear is hitting all global assets.
  • As other assets decline in valuation levels, the US Dollar will likely be viewed as the strongest currency to own and rise.

Many of you are familiar with my team’s advanced study of Fibonacci Price Theory and our use of our proprietary Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc indicators.  This technical analysis theory is a combination of Nikola Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory and traditional Fibonacci Price Theory.  We believe the innate frequency of price action (once found), can be used to identify future critical inflection points in price.  In this case with Bitcoin, three unique Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs aligned within 5 days to present a very real price inflection point.  The recent collapse in the price of Bitcoin may be inherently related to the frequency of price from past peaks and troughs using our advanced Fibonacci Price Theory.

We found it interesting that Bitcoin prices stayed below $10k through most of June and July, when other Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs crossed price, then began to move higher after the last Price Amplitude Arc completed near July 20, 2020.  After that Fibonacci Arc completed, the only Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs present in the future were the Triple Fibonacci Arcs shown on this Daily Bitcoin chart (below).

Our team also believes that once Bitcoin cleared the previous Fibonacci Arcs, a bit of a “reprieve” took place in price where a moderate upside price rally too place.  As we neared the Triple Fibonacci Arcs, price activity muted and reversed.  Could it be that price reacts to frequency levels we are not seeing on the charts?

The Weekly BitCoin chart, below, highlights many of the origination points (peaks and troughs) of the Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs.  We anchor them to price peaks or troughs as a way to use and study them, measuring critical price waves (up or down) using Eclipse drawing tools, then drag them and anchor them to current or past peaks or troughs.  Then we study the levels to determine if the frequency of price validity is accurate or not.  If we believe we have drawn a Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc that is valid, we’ll keep in on the chart for future reference.

We believe this current Triple Fibonacci Arc pattern may be present in other symbols given how the US stock markets have reversed recently.  It may be that these critical price inflection points operate across major indexes like tides in the ocean work across multiple ports and harbors.  When a big or critical Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc hits, we believe it results in a broad market reaction.

If this breakdown in Bitcoin Continues, the $8k level would be the next downside price target.  Beyond that, possibly $7k and maybe as low as $6k.  We will have to see how Bitcoin reacts to this Triple Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc and how deep price corrects at this time.  It is very likely that Bitcoin price levels will fall below the May through July levels, near $9k in an attempt to identify new support levels.

We also believe Gold and Silver will move lower as a price collapse in Bitcoin suggests general market fear it hitting all global assets.  The US Dollar may attempt to form support as well because of this move.  As other assets decline in valuation levels, some primary currency will likely be viewed as the strongest alternative asset – this will likely be the US Dollar.  Eventually, after what we believe could be a moderate downtrend in Gold and Silver, precious metals will begin to move dramatically higher as foreign currency and Bitcoin prices continue to fall.  Capital will always seek out the best, least risky, investment solutions at times of chaos and risk.  If Bitcoin becomes highly volatile and continues to fall, then alternate assets present very real opportunities.

Isn’t it time you learned how I can help you better understand technical analysis as well as find and execute better trades?  If you look back at past research, you will see that my incredible team and our proprietary technical analysis tools have shown you what to expect from the markets in the future.  Do you want to learn how to profit from these expected moves?  If so, sign up for my Active ETF Swing Trade Signals today!

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Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist
Technical Traders Ltd.

NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.

 

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Gives Back Early Gains for the Week

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week but gave back the gains as the market may have gotten a bit overdone. At this point, the market is going to continue to see a lot of volatility, but I do believe that there is a significant amount of support near the $26 level. If we break down below the $26 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the $24 level. That is an area that should continue to cause major issues as well, as we have seen a rejection of selling in that general vicinity.

SILVER Video 07.09.20

All things being equal though, we need to pay attention to the US dollar as it looks like it continues to stabilize a bit after losing 10% for the last couple of months. The question now is not so much as to whether or not the US dollar can recover, but whether or not it strengthens drastically? There are a lot of crosswinds at the moment, and that should continue to cause major issues. I think a pullback in the silver market does make some sense, and quite frankly we could drop all the way back down to the $20 level and still see buyers. Silver tends to overdo things, and it is most certainly overdone things recently.

The alternate scenario is that we break above the $30 level, which could send this market even higher, perhaps reaching towards $50 level over the longer term, as it has done a couple of times in the past. Needless to say, that is a long term, but right now I think we are more likely to see a bit of a pullback than anything else.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Pull Back Into the Weekend

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but then broke down again as the US dollar picked up a little bit due to the jobs number coming out better than anticipated. Nonetheless, we still have a massive amount of support underneath at the $26 level, and I think at this point we should see a lot of interest in this market. I believe that early next week we will probably see a turnaround, but even if we do not the 50 day EMA starts to come back into the picture near the $25 level.

SILVER Video 07.09.20

Breaking above the top of the candlestick during the trading session on Friday would also be a very bullish sign, reaching towards the $28 level, possibly even the $29 level. The $29 level begins massive resistance extending to the $30 level, so we can break above that level, then it is very likely that the market then starts to really take off, as the previous history has shown us that the market has a proclivity to go looking towards the $50 level over the longer term once we break this area.

That does not mean that it happens quickly, nor that it is easy, just that it tends to be the end result. If we break down below the $24 level, that could threaten the overall uptrend, perhaps unleashing a selling pressure that extends all the way down to the $20 handle. That would need to see massive US dollar strength though, and a serious break in US dollar selling overall.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.