Silver Fundamental Analysis July 19, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 26.938 dipping in early trading. With little guidance or news flow markets have been relatively quiet.

Fed Chairman Bernanke continues his second day of testimony but no news is expected.

Gold is also down today, as markets were negative on precious and industrial metals.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 18

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

 

1.4% 

 

1.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

6.1K

 

5.0K 

 

6.9K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.755M

 

0.765M 

 

0.784M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.760M

 

0.745M 

 

0.711M 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 19  00:30  Japan

Jul 19  08:30  Spain

Jul 19  08:50  France

Jul 19  09:30  UK

Jul 19  09:50  France

Jul 19  15:00  US

Jul 19  17:00  US

Jul 23- n/a  UK

Jul 23  09:30  Germany

Jul 24  08:30  Netherlands

Jul 24  08:30  Spain 

Jul 24  15:30  Italy

Jul 24  17:00  US

Jul 25  09:30  Germany

Jul 25  15:30  Italy

Jul 25  17:00  US

Jul 26  00:30  Japan

Jul 26  09:10  Italy

Jul 27  09:10  Italy

Jul 27  17:00  US

Silver Forecast July 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets had a very neutral day in reaction to the testimony given by the Federal Reserve Chairman in front of the U.S. Congress. While he didn’t go out and explicitly suggest that quantitative easing is coming anytime soon, it certainly didn’t rule it out either. In a sense, he gave both the bears and bulls what they wanted at the end of the day. While he didn’t signal easing right away, he also mentioned that the Federal Reserve does have a few tools left in its tool bag in which to accommodate economic expansion. Because of this, this is a perception challenge for most traders, as it looks like it’s possible for easing, but we really didn’t learn much at the end of the session.

Since we can’t learn much, it makes sense that the market ended up basically unchanged, and as a result we still think silver is pretty much as short-term scalpers market at best. A break above the $30 level would be massively bullish, and have us buying and holding this metal. On the other hand of course, a break down below the $25 level has is massively short of the silver markets as it would show a serious swing in momentum. In the meantime, we only see very short-term setups and recognize that there are much easier markets to trade at the moment.

Silver Forecast July 18, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 18, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 18, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading post Bernanke at 27.078 down 0.243. Industrial metals and precious metals were down after Bernanke and on global growth revisions from the IMF. Markets had pinned their hopes on additional stimulus from the central bank after growth was revised slightly downward yesterday.

With contractions in China, and lower demand, the metals pack fell today, dragging silver down with it.

Gold also fell after earlier gains.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data Reported on July 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 17

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.3% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.8% 

 

2.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-19.6

 

-20.0 

 

-16.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-22.3

 

-28.0 

 

-20.1 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

1.00% 

 

-1.10% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.6% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

55.0B

 

45.7B 

 

27.2B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 

             

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

 

Silver Forecast July 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets had very little to say during the Monday session as the $27 level acted as a form of short-term support. The market still looks like it’s stuck between the $26 dollar and $30 levels. Because of this, we aren’t necessarily enamored with the idea of trading silver at this moment in time. Essentially, it would make more sense to wait until we get the breakout that has to come sooner or later, and would of course feature a daily close above the $30 level or a daily close below the $25 level. These are the two areas that we have been wanting for quite some time now, and as such this is exactly what we need to see in order to get overly enthusiastic about trading silver. In the meantime, it will be a scalper’s market at best.

Silver Forecast July 17, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 17, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 27.32, as precious metals traded little changed today, retaining gains from the previous session clocked up after China’s growth data came in on target and eased worries about worsening economic conditions, feeding risk appetite and boosting the euro.

Industrial metals edged down today after hitting a one-week high in the prior session as surging agricultural futures drew some buying power away from base metals, but expectations of further stimulus from China helped put a floor under prices.

Markets are also expecting the official release of the IMF global growth forecast which is weighing on industrial metals as the IMF is expected to adjust the 2012 growth rate downwards.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data Releases for Monday, July 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 16

 

GBP

 

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

-1.7%

 

 

 

1.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

26.11B

 

13.50B 

 

10.16B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

7.4

 

4.0 

 

2.3 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

 

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country  Auction

Jul 17  08:30  Spain    Eur 2.5-3.5bn Jul 2013 (12M) & Dec 2013 (18M) T-bills

Jul 17  09:10  Greece  Eur 1.25bn Oct 2012 (3M) T-bills

Jul 17  09:30  Belg     Up to Eur 3.0bn Oct 2012 (3M) & Jul 2013 (12M) T-bills

Jul 17  10:00  EFSF    Up to Eur 1.5bn Jan 2013 (6M) T-bills

Jul 18  09:30  Ger       Eur 5.0bn 0.00% Jun 2014 Schatz

Jul 18  09:30  Port      Eur 1.75-2.0bn new Jan 2013 (6M) & new Jul 2013 (12M)

Jul 19  00:30  Japan    Auctions 5Y JGBs

Jul 19  08:30  Spain    Eur 2.0-3.0bn 3.3% Oct 2014 Bono, 5.5% Jul 2017 &

Jul 19  08:50  France  Eur 8.0-9.0bn 2.5% Jan 2015, 2.5% Jul 2016 & new 1.0%

Jul 19  09:30  UK       GBP 1.75bn 3.75% Jul 2052 Gilt

Jul 19  09:50  France  Eur 1.0-1.5bn 1.3% Jul 2019 OATi,

Jul 19  17:00  US        USD 15.0bn 10Y Tips

Monday Morning Metals

Gold closed higher, trading up for the first in 4 days, after getting some support from a drop in the US dollar and as data showed China’s economy slowed in line with expectations in the second quarter. Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,269.73 tons, as on July 12. Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 9,696.71 tons, as on July 13.

Hedge funds and finance managers have cut their net long position in Comex gold futures and options by 19,305 to 88,973 lots in the week to July 10, as per CFTC.

The DX, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, last reached 83.366, declining from 83.666.

The EUR recovered from a two year low against the dollar, after Italy successfully completed an auction of 3-year debt at lower borrowing costs.

Moody’s downgraded Italy’s government bond rating by two notches to Baa2 and warned it could cut it further. Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook for the global base metal industry to negative from stable, blaming a slowdown in economic growth. However, prices will remain range bound, with a negative bias, although a broader price collapse as seen in 2008 is unlikely.

Copper moved to one-week high, after expected second-quarter growth data from China eased concerns about demand prospects from the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metals. Prices were also supported by a rally in EUR.  A strike has virtually shut down construction at its new nickel processing plant in southern Newfoundland for the second straight day.

Crude oil  closed higher, supported by a rally in the financial markets and concerns over supply after US imposed stronger sanctions on Iran.

Turkey is finding it difficult to import Iranian oil in July because of the embargo on ship insurance, trading and shipping, leaving Tehran battling to sell oil now stuck in storage tanks in Egypt

The number of rigs actively explored for oil and natural gas in the US was down by 12 last week to 1,953. 1,427 rigs were explored for oil and 522 for gas while 4 were listed as miscellaneous, as per Houston-based oil-field services company Baker Hughes Inc

Silver Forecast July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver markets were very quiet during the session on Friday as the precious metals complex itself was relatively calm. We are currently trading in an area that is just above a massive support zone, which of course we recognize as being said between the $25 and $26 handles. With this being said, it does look like the most comfortable in easiest move will be to the upside from here, and we suspect that a breaking of the Friday highs would lead to that. As for selling, we need to see $25 taken out to the downside.

Silver Forecast July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Forecast for the week of July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets had a very quiet week just as the gold markets did over the past five sessions. However, the silver markets may have more headwinds facing it than the gold markets. We can see that the chart is grinding lower, and it does appear fairly obvious that the $25 to 26th dollar level is massive support as well. However, there is still a very plausible descending triangle in this market and unlike the gold market – we have not drifted too far to the right to negate it.

On a daily close below $25, we are willing to short this market aggressively. We think that if that level gets broken we could see the $15 level before it’s all said and done. As for buying the silver markets, we don’t see a long-term trade until we break above the $30 level which of course is something that looks a bit unlikely at this point in time.

With all this being said, we find that this market is going to be difficult for the longer-term trader until we break out of this tight trading range. With the low volume is in the summertime, it may actually be this fall before we get a decent set up in the silver markets. However, this doesn’t mean that you should be paying attention to them. In fact, a lot of these “obvious moves” that tend to happen when traders come back from summer break are actually easy to see ahead of time if you are diligent in following the markets. After all, not all traders come back at the same time.

Looking at the silver markets, we can see that this potential triangle is huge. We would be looking at a roughly $22 drop at that point in time. Sounds crazy, but this would essentially be a return trip to the levels that silver was trading at four years and years before the bullish run over the last several trading years.

While we can’t necessarily suggest that the $4 level is going to be had, we do see that a break down below the $25 level opens the door to $20, and more than likely $15 as the $20 level looks to be only minor support. If we do manage to somehow break above the $30 level, we feel that this market will attempt to reach the $36 level at that point.

Silver Forecast for the week of July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast for the week of July 16, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 16-20, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is closing the week higher at current 27.28. This week was the 5th weekly session in the past 2 years to bounce off the $26 handle. Silver just seems to find good buying interest whenever we test these lower levels. We see 26.10 as the last line of support before liquidation selling emerges. The metal has been weak for the past 5 months having fallen from 37.46 since February. We would expect stop loss buying of Silver on a move above last week’s high of 28.44. The Gold Silver ratio at current 58.11 continues to trade within a 5 month bullish channel. Parameters lie at 56.92 and 59.92.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jul 13, 2012

27.283

27.115

27.545

27.063

0.66%

Jul 12, 2012

27.105

27.103

27.343

26.430

0.00%

Jul 11, 2012

27.105

26.925

27.237

26.798

0.68%

Jul 10, 2012

26.923

27.303

27.553

26.720

-1.40%

Jul 09, 2012

27.305

26.962

27.480

26.925

1.26%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks. 

Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul 9

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-29.6

-26.3

-28.9

 

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.4%

 

1.3%

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

-22%

-15%

-17%

Jul 10

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

-0.9%

1.4%

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

-0.3%

-2.0%

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

0.1%

-0.8%

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

-9.0B

-9.7B

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

 

0.1%

Jul 11

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

-48.5B

-50.6B

 

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.7M

-1.3M

-4.3M

Jul 12

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

0.6%

0.0%

-1.1%

 

USD

Unemployment Claims

350K

376K

376K

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

-1.5%

-1.2%

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

-91.7B

-124.6B

Jul 13

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.2%

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

-0.5%

-1.0%

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

73.5

73.2

 

Historical:

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 27.592 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 16

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

-7.5%

8.8%

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

2.3

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

 

0.4%

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

   

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

 

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

 

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

 

15.6B

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 16, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 27.223 adding 0.062 in a strong trading day. Silver benefited from the precious metals and the industrial metals pack today as investors were relieved that the Chinese GDP and other data reported in line with forecasts.

Market sentiments to some extent were on the positive side as weak economic indicators from China incited hopes that the country may resort to aggressive monetary policy easing to support economic growth. Commodities and equities were seen moving higher. Weakness in Euro following the downgrade of Italy’s credit ratings by the Moody’s near to junk weighed on the overall sentiments. Yet, Italy was successful in selling the planned amount of bonds in the auction earlier today. Precious metals were seen rising after the Chinese data, extending the rebound seen in the previous session. Spot gold and silver gained around 0.6 per cent and one per cent respectively probably heading to end the session on a positive note. Base metal complex in LME as well as in Shanghai were on a greener turf

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 13

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.1% 

 

20.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.6%

 

7.6% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.5%

 

9.8% 

 

9.6% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.7%

 

13.5% 

 

13.8% 

 

 

 

05:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-3.4%

 

-3.1% 

 

-3.1% 

 

 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

10:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

6.19% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

2.0% 

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.0% 

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

14:55

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

73.4 

 

73.2 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 16

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

-7.5%

8.8%

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

 

2.4%

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 

2.3

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

 

0.4%

Jul 17

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

2.8%

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-16.9

9:15

ALL

G7 Meetings

   

12:30

USD

CPI m/m

 

-0.3%

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

 

25.6B

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

 

-0.1%

Jul 18

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

8.1K

8:30

GBP

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-43.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.78M

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

 

0.71M

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-4.7M

Jul 19

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

2.48B

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

4.6B

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.55M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-16.6

Jul 20

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

 

-0.3%

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

 

15.6B

Silver Forecast July 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell during most of the session on Thursday, only to bounce back off of the $26 level that has been so supportive during the recent consolidation in this market. We don’t see any massive catalysts coming in the short term, so a bounce from here is more than likely. The fact that the day finished as a hammer suggests that we will see a bounce in the short term, perhaps to the $29 level.

Because of this, we are willing to buy this market for a very short-term trade if we can break the highs from the Thursday session. As for selling, we need to see the $25 level give way, something that we think will happen sooner or later – but not quite yet.

 

Silver Forecast July 13, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 13, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 13, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver  is trading at 26.663 off 0.470  as precious metals fell today after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting did not indicate U.S. policymakers were gearing up to take additional action to stimulate growth, thereby lessening the chances of a boost for the bullion price.

Industrial metals slipped also as markets remained cautious ahead of the release of second quarter economic growth figures from China and as sentiment soured after the U.S. Federal Reserve dampened speculation of further stimulus measures in the short-term. Gold also fell in today’s session, trading at midway at 1559.75 off over 15.00

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Jul. 12

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

3.25% 

 

3.25% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

-27.0K

 

0.3K 

 

27.9K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.2% 

 

5.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-2.7% 

 

-1.7% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

350K 

 

372K 

 

374K 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3304 

 

3300K 

 

3306K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

 

Metal and Energy Review

Gold futures closed lower, capping a seesaw session as investors were mostly sidelined, waiting for the Federal Reserve’s policy-meeting minutes from June for any clues about further easing. (1571.45)

Indian gold fell to its lowest level in more than a month, tracking weakness in overseas market and supported by stronger Rupee against Dollar. Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,271.24 tons, as on July 10. Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, increased to 9,729.89 tons, as on July 9.

There were also signs of concerns in Euro-zone with Italy saying on Tuesday that it may want to tap euro zone aid to ease its borrowing costs.

The minutes of the Fed’s meeting showed policy makers considered the risk that further easing might pose. Some members of the FOMC said that excessive purchases of Treasuries may “at some point, lead to deterioration in the functioning of the Treasury securities market that could undermine the intended effects of the policy.” A few officials said the central bank will probably need to take further action.

Copper futures eased slightly after hour’s trade, as minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting suggested economic conditions are likely to worsen before policymakers reach a consensus on more stimulus. Copper futures for Sept. delivery closed up by 1.5% at $3.4475 per pound on the COMEX of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

LME nickel has fallen toward 2-1/2 year lows, due to weakness in the stainless steel sector, for which nickel is a key material.

Crude oil rose above $85 per barrel; after a report showed US crude supplies fell for the second week, suggesting demand may be improving also refineries operated at the highest rate in almost 5-years.

The EIA cut has its world oil demand growth forecast for 2012 and 2013 while OPEC said that demand growth will slow in 2013 from what is already a weak level this year. The group, which produces a third of global oil, said daily average demand for its crude would stay below its current production levels.

Natural gas futures rallied the most in 3-weeks, as forecasts for hot weather to spread from the Mid-west to the North-east next week signaled stronger demand from power plants. Natural gas inventories are expected to increase by 26-30bn cubic feet, actual data will be released by EIA later in the day

Silver Forecast July 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets had a slightly bullish session on Wednesday, only to give up most of the gains. The FMOC minutes came out during the session, and there was no clear-cut mention of further quantitative easing by the Fed. Because of this, there was no run into the precious metals markets, nor was there a massive selloff. Quite frankly, it left a lot of questions unanswered.

The market still remains consolidative for us, and we think that in order to buy silver we need to see a daily close above the $30 level. As for selling, we will not do it until we see a sub-$25 print. In the meantime, will very neutral in this market although we do have a somewhat negative bias.

Silver Forecast July 12, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 12, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 12, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading up at 26.962 after a severe fall yesterday. Precious metals as well as industrial metals are trading strong today. Silver rebounded slightly from yesterday decline, but was still weak in today’s session. Whereas gold has seen small gains and losses throughout the day with no real direction

The base metals complex traded on a positive on the back of weakness in the DX along with decline in LME inventories. Copper, the leader of the base metals group gained around 0.4 percent on account of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.4 percent which stood at 252,350 tonnes

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 11

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.2%

 

3.2% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

3.70%

 

 

 

0.30% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

0.7% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.310%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.6B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-48.7B

 

-48.5B 

 

-50.6B 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 12  09:10  Italy

Jul 12  09:30  UK

Jul 12  15:00  US

Jul 12  17:00  US

Jul 13  09:10  Italy

Jul 13  10:00  Belgium

Silver Forecast July 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets fell during the Tuesday session as further concerns of European slowdowns dominate market headlines. However, with the relative quiet in the marketplace due to a lack of economic announcements, the silver markets stayed within a relatively tight range.

The chart looks like it’s trying to grind lower, and without a doubt we see the 26th dollar level as the beginning of support in this marketplace. We see a continuation of lower highs, and a building up pressure to the downside. There is a real chance that this market comes undone in the relatively near future, and this would be signified by the breaking below of the $25 level. Once we get a daily close under that market, we are more than willing to not only short this market, but do it aggressively. It should be noted that the next major looking support level underneath this level is the $15 level. As for buying, we need to see a daily close above the $30 level which looks fairly unlikely at this point.

Silver Forecast July 11, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 11, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 11, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver declined today, to trade at 27.22. Precious metals edged down today, pressured by a higher dollar as investors nervous about global economic growth piled into the greenback for safety. Industrial metals edged down today as Chinese imports of the metal fell 17.5 percent in June from a month earlier, with traders cautious ahead of China GDP data this week. The drop in imports reported as part of the trade balance surprised the markets and weighed heavily on the metals pack. Gold spent the day moving between small losses and gains, without much direction.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 10

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-22%

 

-16% 

 

-17% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

-3

 

 

 

-2 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

31.73B

 

21.00B 

 

18.70B 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish CPI (YoY) 

2.20%

 

2.20% 

 

2.10% 

 

 

 

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian Core Inflation (MoM) 

-0.30%

 

0.10% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian CPI (MoM) 

-0.50%

 

-0.10% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

1.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-8.4B

 

-9.0B 

 

-9.7B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.6%

 

-2.1% 

 

-2.0% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

222.7K

 

205.0K 

 

217.4K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

NIESR GDP Estimate 

-0.2%

 

 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

 

Silver Forecast July 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver markets barely moved during the Monday session as the market was fairly quiet overall. With few headlines to push the panic button, there was in a rush into the precious metals market during the trading day. As the markets, and especially these precious metal markets, have been reacting purely to headlines lately, there really was no reason for anyone to buy or sell.

In our opinion, the $25 level is massive support and if it were to give way would signal a fresh round of selling perhaps down to the $15 level. Alternately, we feel that $30 is massive resistance, and that would need to be overcome to see massive bullishness in this market. In the meantime, we feel that we are simply going to bounce around in the present area and therefore aren’t that interested in this market.

Silver Forecast July 10, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast July 10, 2012, Technical Analysis

Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Update

futures traded in a tight range but managed to close higher, as the dollar weakened while bargain buying was seen after previous week’s sharp drop in the prices. Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, declined to 1,275.46 tons, as on July 9.

Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, increased to 9,729.89 tons, as on July 9.

The dollar index, which compares the US unit to a basket of other currencies, declined to 83.161, down from 83.359 on late Friday.

Hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bets in US gold futures and options by 30% in the week up to July 3, after a European deal to shore up banks and cut borrowing costs increased bullion’s investment appeal.

Speculators also sharply cut their copper net shorts after prices rallied over 5% during the period covered, as per CFTC data.

China’s annual consumer inflation came in at 2.2%, a lower rate than the 3% in May, which left room for Beijing to ease policy without stoking upward price pressures. China’s Trade Balance widened this morning with exports report above forecast, but a huge drop in imports. Markets are disappointed with the data.

Copper closed in positive, recovering from its earlier dip to one-week low on hopes for more monetary easing by central banks, including in top metals consumer China.

Copper futures for Sept. delivery closed down by 2.4% at $3.4095 per pound on the COMEX of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices jumped 2%, with Brent futures rising back above $100 per barrel, as a strike by workers and a planned lockout by companies threatened to completely shut Norway’s crude oil production. By the end of the day, the oil strike was settled and oil prices returned to their prior levels.

Iraq’s government said crude oil exports from the semi-autonomous northern region of Kurdistan to neighboring Turkey are “illegal” and threatened on Monday to take “appropriate action,” in a continuation of recent of tensions between the two as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Natural gas futures closed higher, as forecasts for above-normal temperature in mid-July for much of the nation raised hopes of rising gas consumption. Natural gas futures traded on NYMEX has moved into backwardation for the first time in 10-months, as record heat boosted demand from power plants. (Backwardation occurs when the front month contract trades at a higher price than contracts for later delivery).

Silver Fundamental Analysis July 10, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver traded positive today, increasing more than gold to trade at 27.365 adding 1.65% whereas gold is trading at 1588.05 but only added 0.58%.

Precious metals traded mostly steady. Spot gold was little changed while, spot silver ticked up. Investors choose to stay on the sideline for fresh cues after the weekend fall on a sluggish US jobs data. Base metal threw mixed signals with complex in Shanghai Futures Exchange mostly in red while, in the LME metals traded steady. China’s inflation data for the month of June released earlier today indicated a cool off in price levels, which ignited hopes of further monetary stimulus. LME copper was tad up snapping three consecutive sessions of losses.

Global sentiment is fairly negative at this time, while investors sit and wait for news flow from the Eurogroup meeting, where Euro Ministers are discussing the implementation of the EU banking plan proposed at the EU Summit on June 29th.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 09

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.28T

 

0.42T 

 

0.29T 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.3% 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

-1.9% 

 

-1.4% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

06:45

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

3.2% 

 

2.9% 

   

 

13:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2