Silver Forecast June 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets continued to do very little during the Tuesday session as the consolidation between $27 and $29 holds true. The inability to break out above the $29 level shouldn’t be a big surprise at this point as it has held so firm. The lows are starting to get slightly higher though, and this could suggest a move higher in the near term. However, until we get above the $30 level we cannot consider this a break out. A break below $27 has us selling, and the aforementioned breakout above $30 has us buying. In the meantime, we are on the sidelines.

Silver Forecast June 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast June 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis June 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 28.358 adding 0.351. In today’s session, gold had little direction and clung close to its 1615-1620 range, while silver was able to break out and trade up almost 1.35% in a remarkable day of trading. Whereas gold only added 0.13%

Markets perked up after the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey results for May the US dollar remained weak against its major opponents. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of nonmanufacturing businesses rose to 53.7% in May from 53.5% in April.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 05

 

AUD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-14.9B

 

-14.8B 

 

-9.6B 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

 

3.75% 

 

3.75% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.9%

 

-1.0% 

 

3.2% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

-5.2%

 

-2.0% 

 

4.9% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

 

53.5 

 

53.5 

   

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 6

         

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

55.8

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

 

2.8%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

 

-3.3%

 

Jun 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

235.6B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.1%

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

53.3

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

325B

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

 

-1.5%

8:30

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

 

3.5%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

 

Gold and Silver During the “new” EU Crisis

Gold futures revived yesterday’s loss at the early Globex and the Euro edged up further from the pit ahead of the meeting by the Group of seven financial policy makers. Asian shares hold the nerves amid optimism that the leading chiefs will embrace emergency talks to lessen the Euro zone crisis. The Euro is therefore likely to be resilient today especially after France and the EU commission signaled support for an ambitious plan for a direct use of Euro zone’s crisis funds to shield banking default. On this back ground, gold is also expected to remain strong for the day but the gains may remain limited owing to the RBA’s cash rate decision. There are some crucial meetings lies in this week starting with the G7 today, followed by the ECB meet tomorrow and a verdict from the Fed chairman to testify the US economic condition on Thursday. It is therefore appealing to see the conversations of G7 ahead of the ECB meet and we expect some pressure to be built on the ECB for proactive steps. Hence, the week’s volatility has inspired speculation for an early stance by the ECB. However, it is unexpected for a sizable stance ahead of the much talked Greek re-election on June 17. Nevertheless, according to the need, any clue for supplementary cheap loans may support gold to climb.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cut its Cash Rate by 25basis points this morning. This will hurt the Australian dollar and in turn gold, since both of them shares a near 90% positive correlation. So, a deeper cut would upset gold’s strength today. Reports today from the eurozone and Germany are still expected to remain subdued. PMI numbers and a weak German factory orders may keep the Euro under stress for a while.

Silver futures prices are also quoting higher by 0.71% amid optimism of the G7 meeting where the ECB nay come under pressure for a policy action in terms of cheap loan or bond buying to support the wrecked financial condition in Euro zone. Euro therefore is likely to remain resilient for the day and that may also support silver prices. The week is full of events and today it is worth to watch the emergency talks of G7. We expect some pressure to be built on the ECB for proactive steps. However, it is unexpected for a sizable stance ahead of the much talked Greek re-election on June 17. Nevertheless, according to the need, any clue for supplementary cheap loans may support silver to climb. Reports today from the eurozone and Germany are still expected to remain subdued. PMI numbers and a weak German factory orders may keep the Euro under stress for a while. So, silver may also have a restricted upside today.

Global Exchanges, Metals and Energy in the Morning

All the Asian indices are trading the green. Shanghai and Hang Seng are up by 0.3% and 1% respectively. Nikkei and Kospi are trading in the green up by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively while Strait Times and Taiwan are up by 0.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Worries about a global growth slowdown and uncertainty surrounding Europe’s debt crisis kept investors on edge and trading choppy on Monday. Still, U.S. markets ultimately closed the day not far from where they opened. The S&P 500 closed flat. NASDAQ gained 12 points, or 0.5%. Dow Jones dropped 17 points, or 0.1%. Factory orders declined 0.6% in April, the government reported on Monday. The report was weaker than the 0.1% increase expected.  

Anxieties over the health of the Spanish banking system and the possibility that Greece could soon exit the euro remain high. Fear and Greed index remained deeply entrenched in extreme fear territory.

The European markets closed mixed on Monday, on a relatively light trading day. The U.K. market was closed due to the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and will be closed again on Tuesday. DAX in Germany fell 1.2%, while France’s CAC 40 rose 0.1%. British markets were closed for a bank holiday.

Gold eased slightly on profit-booking, after central banks refrained from adding additional stimulus measures to boost their economies amid Europe’s intensifying fiscal crisis and signs of a slowdown in the US.

Gold holdings  of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, increased to 1,273.88 tons, as on June 1.

Silver holdings of iShares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, increased to 9,638.9 tons, as on June 4. The dollar index, which measures the US unit against a basket of six major, fell to 82.878 from 83.035 on late Thursday.

In Europe, France and the European Commission signaled their support for an ambitious plan to use the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund to rescue debt stricken banks, in n effort to reassure investors that they can contain an escalating crisis.

Copper prices declined to an 8-month low on COMEX, but later rebounded on support from a rally in euro against the dollar and steadier tone in equities.  Copper fell for the fourth straight session, unable to sustain an early bounce from a 7-month low, as mounting fears over the global economy continued to weigh on the demand outlook for industrial metals.

Copper futures for July delivery closed slightly down at $3.307 per pound on the COMEX of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Some US copper fabricators have resorted to buying primary metal rather than scrap due to tightness in supply, which remains supportive to cathode premiums, traders said.

The premium for primary aluminum shipments to Japan in the July-September quarter has been set in a range of $200-$210 per ton for several deals, a trader said.

Crude oil futures close to 1%, as the euro strengthened against the dollar after European leaders agreed to discuss closer banking cooperation.

Natural gas rose from a four-week low, on speculation that warm-weather forecasts for the eastern US will increase fuel demand from power plants.

Silver Forecast June 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets continued to grind away on Monday as the consolidation pattern continues. The $27 level is the support, and the $29 to $30 level is the resistance. The market looks as if it really isn’t ready to go anywhere at the moment and with the industrial slowdown globally it doesn’t take much imagination as to why. The breaking of the two levels on a daily close would have us entering into the market in the same direction, but until that happens we feel as if there are better markets to trade.

Silver Forecast June 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast June 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis June 5, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver marched to its own drummer today, moving up to 28.313 or +0.199. Silver futures prices climbed slightly at the early session pressurized drop in the USD, tracing cues from the shattered US and European equities and a disastrous jobs data from the US. As discussed in gold’s outlook, market will be waiting for the meeting between EU commission president and the German chancellor for bank recapitalization amid Spain’s urge for a joint effort to safeguard the banking sector.

The  euro rebounded a bit and hence silver was able to climb. But, as proved earlier, silver too to follow the gold’s rally following from the haven demand and we therefore expect silver to revive during the week. The eurozone investor confidence remained weak while the producer price reduced a bit.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data DATE, 2012 actual v. forecast (virtually no eco data in Europe or the US today)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 04

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

2.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.0%

 

 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Profits (QoQ) 

-4.0%

 

-2.0% 

 

-6.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-2.40%

 

 

 

-0.80% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 5

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.3%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

 

2.2%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

6th-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

   

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

55.8

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

 

2.8%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1.00%

1.00%

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

 

-3.3%

 

Jun 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

235.6B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.1%

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

53.3

TBD

EUR

French 10-y Bond Auction

   

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

325B

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

TBD

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

   

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

 

-1.5%

8:30

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

 

3.5%

TBD

GBP

10-y Bond Auction

   

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

Silver Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver market popped on the Friday session as the Non-Farm Payroll number disappointed with adding only 69 thousand jobs in the month of May. The silver markets will continue to underperform going forward as the industrial demand for the metal is going to be weak. The silver markets are much less liquid than the gold markets, and as a result this market can breakdown or breakout much quicker than the gold market. The fact that the gold market rose $60 during the session while the silver market only rose 67 cents shows just how much this market will continue to lag the gold markets – all because of that industrial component to silver. 

A breakout above the $30 level has us buying though, but the support level at $27 is more than likely to be tested heavily as well, and as a result of that action – we would be aggressive sellers. In the meantime, we are on the sidelines as this looks like a very tight market.

Silver Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets printed a hammer for the week over the last five sessions for the third time in a row. This is a massively supportive look to this market, but there are many reasons to be concerned if you are long of this metal.

For example, the industrial demand for silver is simply broken. Unlike gold, silver can be both a precious metal and an industrial one depending on what’s going on. There is a lot of speculation that since the May jobs number in America came out so low, there could be a rush to quantitative easing. This will certainly push the value of silver and precious metals higher. The fact is that there are many other countries out there that are about to start easing, so any move higher based upon the idea of quantitative easing could be short lived. The market does however look as though the short term could be higher.

A break above the candle for the week has us buying, but we see the $35 level as a potentially resistive area, one that will be tough to crack. If silver gets above that level, this market will go much, much higher in the end. However, there is a higher probability that the market simply continues to bounce around between the $27 and $35 levels for the longer-term. The market looks very consolidative on the longer term charts, so selling at this point is going to be very difficult.

The one thing that could have us selling at this point is the breaking below of the $27 level as it could easily open the way to the $20 mark. The highs had been getting lower until we got to fall last year, so it is easy to see how important the $27 to $35 area is. The breaking out of this area is what we are looking for to make trades for the long-term. A break above $30 has the market aiming for $35. A break below $27 has us selling and aiming for the $20 level. 

Silver Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 4 – 8, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver concluded the week at 28.475 following in the shadow of gold. There is not much to say about silver overall this week, as it simply moved in relationship to gold and the DI.        

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 01, 2012

28.475

27.665

28.673

27.178

2.86%

May 31, 2012

27.683

27.888

28.188

27.513

-0.79%

May 30, 2012

27.903

27.728

28.142

27.358

0.66%

May 29, 2012

27.720

28.373

28.658

27.653

-2.31%

May 28, 2012

28.375

28.585

28.755

28.288

-0.74%

This coming week should be the same, stuck between a precious metal and an industrial metal; both sides of demand are down.

With worries over growth especially in China, the demand for physical metals has seen a plunge.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Historical:

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 27.592 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 5

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.3%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

 

2.2%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

6th-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

   

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

55.8

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

 

2.8%

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

 

-3.3%

 

Jun 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

235.6B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.1%

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

53.3

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

325B

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

TBD

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

   

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

 

-1.5%

8:30

GBP

Consumer Inflation Expectations

 

3.5%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Silver Fundamental Analysis June 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver moved up on the strength of gold, but its move was not as violent or as dramatic. Silver added 0.771 to trade at 28.528.

Shrinking manufacturing activities in the major economies amidst feeble financial situation in the Euro Zone continue to play havoc on the financial markets. Commodities as well as equities were seen to be under the stranglehold of bears and continued to move south ahead of the crucial economic releases from the US. Spot  gold slipped, stretching losses after dropping more than six per cent in May, pressured by the fragile euro. Euro was hovering near the two year low levels. The fall in silver was more pronounced than gold in early trading and shed around 1.5 per cent. Until gold and silver recovered and soared on negative eco data from the US.

 Contraction in manufacturing activity in eurozone and China intensified concerns over the global economic growth thereby, heightening worries over the demand for base metals. Eurozone manufacturing PIM hit its lowest since June 2009 while, official Chinese manufacturing PMI retreated more than expected to its lowest since last December.

Today’s releases in the US were almost all negative; the US created only 69,000 jobs, when they must create 200,000 jobs just to stay even. Unemployment climbed to 8.2%.

ISM manufacturing took a hit reporting in at 53.5 when economists had forecast 53.9. Core PCE also reported under forecast. This compounded with the lackluster reports of the past 10 days investors turned to gold as the words monetary easing, and QE were heard louder and louder. Markets are now hedging that the Feds will need to take aggressive action quickly to get the US recovery back on track. The Obama Administration is running out of time to lock in the election. They need to see things turned around with several months of supporting data before we get close to the fall elections.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 01

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Capital Spending 

3.30%

 

1.30% 

 

7.60% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

50.40

 

52.20 

 

53.30 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Man PMI 

48.40

 

 

 

48.70 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.1%

 

2.0% 

 

4.7% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

45.4

 

46.4 

 

46.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

 

44.4 

 

44.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.2

 

45.0 

 

45.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

45.0 

 

45.0 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.9

 

49.7 

 

50.2 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.0%

 

11.0% 

 

11.0% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

69K

 

150K 

 

77K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.2%

 

8.1% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

82K

 

160K 

 

87K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

53.5

 

53.9 

 

54.8 

 

 

 

Silver Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets continued to grind around in the recent consolidation area on Thursday. The market is essentially sitting just on top of a massive support level in the form of $27, and the $29 to $30 level is the resistance. The consolidation is forming what could be a bearish flag, and this has our interest. The selling of silver has been brutal, and it looks as if the move could continue. A break below the $27 level on a daily close has us aggressively selling this market. As for buying, we need to see a daily close above the $30 level.

 

Silver Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis June 1, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver continued in the shadow of gold, falling a bit, to trade at 27.69 to end the week and the month.

Amid the unending woes of eurozone debt crisis, commodities were seen paring their earlier losses. Now, markets are waiting for a slew of economic data releases that are scheduled for today and tomorrow, to assess the global economic situation. Spot gold, following an initial decline during morning trades started to move up, extending the previous session’s impressive recovery from 1530 levels. Rebound in Euro on anticipation of an Irish vote in favor of Europe’s fiscal pact, helped gold to sustain its gains. Base metals continued to reel under pressure due to the feeble financial situation in Euro Zone and slowing economic growth in China. However, a rise in euro improved the market sentiments to certain extent. In LME, copper was seen regaining some for its lost ground after hitting its lowest in 2012. Meanwhile, it was on its way to post losses for the third successive month. Currency fluctuations helped to limit the losses.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-8.7%

 

0.7% 

 

6.0% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

6.1%

 

4.0% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-2.6% 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.7%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

0K

 

-5K 

 

18K 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.5% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

133K

 

148K 

 

113K 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-11.0B 

 

-9.7B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

383K

 

370K 

 

373K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3242K

 

3250K 

 

3278K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Chicago PMI 

52.7

 

56.5 

 

56.2 

   

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

 

Silver Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets fell for much of the session on Wednesday, but managed to bounce in the end to form a hammer. The market stopped trading at the $28 handle, and this is right in the middle of the current consolidation area. The top of this range is the $29 to $30 zone, with the bottom being the $27 level. The trend is certainly down as of late, and the market could be forming a triangle or pennant to signal an impending move. On a break of either of these two levels, we are willing to follow the market, but must admit we are more comfortable selling.

Silver Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver once again followed in gold’s shadow. With the USD soaring and the dollar index close to 83.00 silver is suffering as investors cannot take advantage of the low prices with the USD being so costly.

Intensifying concerns over Spain’s debt dampened the market sentiments, sending commodities and equities down. Euro hit a 23 month low after Spanish bond yields increased, raising worries that it may spiral up to unsustainable levels. Spot gold hit a one week low earlier today stretching the previous session’s steep decline, tracking weakness in euro. In the MCX, however, gold was moving in the tight ranges. While, depreciating rupee provided lower level support, weakness seen in the international market capped gains. Market was waiting for fresh cues for further directional moves. Base metal complex in LME as well as in Shanghai were in red.  Base metals in LME dropped more than one per cent except for nickel and aluminum.  China indicating that it was unlikely to provide a massive stimulus measures to prop up economic growth weighed on the market too amid lingering concerns over euro zone debt crisis.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estímate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

 

Silver Forecast May 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver markets had a bearish session on Tuesday as the markets in general continue to shun risky assets. The silver market does tend to be very volatile in general, and times like we are in at the moment can be very risky to get involved in the silver futures. However, we have recently seen a nicely defined area that is containing prices between the $29 and $27 levels. The $29 level actually runs all the way up to the $30 mark, so it will take a break above that level and daily close to go long in our opinion. However, a break below the $27 level would have us selling. In the meantime, we are selling small positions when we get close to the top of the consolidation range as the trend is down overall.

Silver Fundamental Analysis May 30, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver gained along with gold today, as the metal pack saw positive moods. Silver is trading up 0.119 at 28.505. The white metal, traded up on bargain buying. 

Concerns are now shifting from Greece to Spain. Notably, the risk premium for Spanish bonds over the safe have German bonds rose to the Euro area high of 515 basis points. This would have raised the concern for Spanish failure in recapitalization plan.

They are expected to use the public money to do the same but this could further lift the country’s debt and the efforts will be more difficult to pay off the arrears amid surging borrowing cost. Hence, the Euro exhibits to a significant downside risk which may impact silver negatively. However, silver is in backwardation which may lift the future prices to have the parity with spot.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 29

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.8%

 

6.3% 

 

10.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

6.9%

 

 

 

-9.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

21

 

-7 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

64.9

 

70.0 

 

68.7 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 30

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.40

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

3.2%

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.4B

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-31

May 31

5:45

CHF

GDP q/q

0.1%

31st-3rd

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.8%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

-2.9%

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

19K

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.6%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 30  09:10  Italy

May 30  09:10  Sweden 

Silver Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets were fairly flat during the session on Monday in thin holiday trading. The Americans had their Memorial Day holiday, and as a result the volume was low for the session. The market looks to be resisted at the $29 level, and supported at $27. This area is a bit of consolidation and it is possible that we grind sideways in the near term until one of these areas is broken. It should be noted that the $29 area actually extends to the $30 level, and we wouldn’t feel comfortable gong long until we are above that level. As for selling, under $27 we do so aggressively. 

Silver Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Fundamental Analysis May 29, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 28.353 down just a couple of cents. Silver followed cues from gold in a quiet day, with US markets closed for a long holiday. Volume was extremely light along with news flows. Silver had climbed higher on the weakness of the USD, but by late in the session the DI has picked up momentum again and silver moved to hover between gains and losses at its close from Friday.

Markets are expected to remain quiet until some eco data begins to be released starting on Wednesday.Also markets will focus on Greece and Spain in the upcoming days.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly .

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

May 29

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

0.2%

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

-6

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-3.5%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

May 30

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.40

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

3.2%

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.4B

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-31

 

Silver Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets fell most of the time this past week, only to bounce and form a hammer by the close on Friday. Because this has happened two weeks in a row, there is a serious threat of a bounce at this level now, and it has also outlined and highlighted the $26 – $25 level as massive support. The $30 level would have to be overtaken for us to get overly bullish in this market, and to be truthful, it is going to feel better shorting this market as the trend is down and the highs are getting lower and lower. With this in mind, we hope to get that short signal very soon.

 

Silver Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

Silver Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The silver markets rose slightly during the session on Friday. The market has been selling off lately as the $30 level giving way was a sign that the bearish momentum was going to pick up. However, the $27 level has offered nice support, and it now looks as if we are going to grind sideways in consolidation. The high level is the $29 – $30 in this zone, and as such we need to see a daily close above that mark in order to buy a position in this market. In the meantime, we like selling rallies that fade, and would certainly be interested in selling a breakdown below the $27 level.

 

Silver Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
Silver Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis