Corn and Soybeans Rally, Wheat Drags on Grain Complex

Corn and wheat prices surged on Friday and continued to remain buoyed Monday following an unexpected planting report from the on Thursday. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showed projected soybean and corn planting intentions below market expectations. Analysts had expected soybean planting intentions of a record 91.1 million acres and corn intentions at 89.4 million, but USDA reported soybean planting intentions of 88.982 million acres and corn intentions of 88.026 million. Despite the lower-than-expected intentions, soybean acreage is still expected to exceed corn acreage for the first time since 1983 and the second largest planted area in history. However, corn acreage would fall to its lowest level in the last three years and the second lowest level in the last 12 years.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke and of a downward sloping trend line and are poised to test the July 2017 high at 393 per bushel. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 377.  Momentum has turned positive the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal.  This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a down sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. The RSI reversed higher reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices broke out above trend line support on Thursday following a smaller than expected planting intentions number.  Prices sliced through trend line resistance which is a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1031. Prices are poised to test resistance near the March highs at 1071.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1030. Momentum has turned positive the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal.  This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a down sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices were unable to gain traction following a neutral to bearish planning report. Positive momentum has been driven by soybeans and corn. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 452 and the March lows at 441. Resistance is seen near the March highs at 506.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Grains Surge Following Surprise Planting Report

 

USDA surprised the market on Thursday when it released its Prospective Plantings report and projected soybean and corn planting intentions below market expectations. Analysts had expected soybean planting intentions of a record 91.1 million acres and corn intentions at 89.4 million, but USDA reported soybean planting intentions of 88.982 million acres and corn intentions of 88.026 million. Despite the lower-than-expected intentions, soybean acreage is still expected to exceed corn acreage for the first time since 1983 and the second largest planted area in history. However, corn acreage would fall to its lowest level in the last three years and the second lowest level in the last 12 years.

Corn Prices

Corn prices surged higher climbing 3.8% in the wake of the USDA’s crop planting report. Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 390. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 377. Momentum has turned and is now positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is moving higher and poised to cross the zero-index level. The fast stochastics surged higher reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices surged following the planting report that showed less than expected acreage. Prices were forming a wedge pattern which has now broken out. Support is seen near former resistance near a downward sloping trend line at 1037. Resistance is seen near the March highs at 1071. Momentum has reversed and is now poised to move higher.  The fast stochastics surged reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved higher but the planting report was not kind to this grain. Prices were able to recapture resistance which was former support near an upward sloping trend line near 450. Negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 5, well below the oversold trigger level of 15 which could foreshadow a correction.

Grains Consolidate Ahead of Quarterly Stock Report

Corn, wheat, and soybeans are consolidating on Thursday morning ahead of the USDA scheduled quarterly release of its Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for corn stocks to come in at a range from 8.55 billion to 8.88 billion bushels with an average of a record 8.703 billion bushels. Expectations for wheat stocks range from 1.45 billion to 1.64 billion bushels with an average of 1.498 billion bushels, and expectations for soybean stocks range from 1.81 billion to 2.11 billion bushels with an average of a record 2.03 billion that,

Corn Prices

Corn prices are consolidating and forming a bear flag pattern that is a pause that refreshes lower. The first level of support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 370. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 376. Resistance on corn prices is seen near the 10-day moving average at 375. Momentum is negative, but turning neutral as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with an upward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation. The fast stochastics is consolidating and appears to have made a double bottom which shows that negative momentum is decelerating. It is coming from oversold territory printing a reading of 17 on Wednesday morning and now above the oversold trigger level printing a reading of 25.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices edged lower early on Wednesday. Prices are forming a wedge pattern as energy is stored and prices consolidate. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1026.5, and then a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1015. Negative momentum is stable as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The fast stochastic is moving lower and printing a reading of 15, which is below the oversold trigger level which could foreshadow a correction.

 

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices broke through trend line support on Wednesday and are consolidating in early North-American trade.  Support is seen near the March lows at 444 and then target support at the January lows at 413. Negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 5, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 28, 2018

Grain prices edged lower early on Wednesday ahead of Thursday Grain stock report. The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly report tomorrow. Analyst expectations for March 1 corn stocks range from 8.55 billion to 8.88 billion bushels with an average of a record 8.703 billion bushels that, if realized, would be an 81-million-bushel increase from last year. Analyst expectations for March 1 wheat stocks range from 1.45 billion to 1.64 billion bushels with an average of 1.498 billion bushels, that, if realized would be a decrease of 376 million bushels from last year’s 1.87 billion bushels.

Corn Prices

Corn prices forming an inside day early with a higher low and a lower high. The first level of support is seen near and upward sloping trend line that comes in near 370. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 376. Momentum is negative as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The fast stochastics is consolidating but is printing a reading of 17, below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

Expectations for soybean stocks range from 1.81 billion to 2.11 billion bushels with an average of a record 2.03 billion that, if realized, would be an increase of 291 million bushels from last year’s 1.74 billion and 246 million bushels above the previous record of 1.79 billion that was set in 2007.

Soybean prices edged lower early on Wednesday. Prices are forming a wedge pattern as energy is stored and prices consolidate. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1029, and then a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1015. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The fast stochastics is consolidating but is printing a reading of 20, at the oversold trigger level which could foreshadow a correction.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are moving lower after breaking down through trend line support which is an upward sloping trend line which is now resistance near 449.  Support is seen near the January lows at 413. Negative momentum is accelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 1, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Why should we care about the Volatility?

For the longest time since the Emini S&P Futures failed to take out 2808 area on its move back up to the all-time highs of the indices in the 2872 region, it has followed the VX futures inversely. The Volatility Index futures have become seriously traded in recent days as traders and hedgers alike, use it as a hedge against their positions and there is a record amount of money that has poured into these instruments both as futures with a monthly roll and into instruments like the VIX which is an ETF for those who prefer to stay out of the monthly futures rolls.

In recent days, the VX futures have been testing their support levels early during the day when you notice the index futures rise and only to have volatility creep back in during the intraday timeframe or into the Globex sessions the following day and watch the VX futures go back and test resistance levels again while watching the index futures fall. It is almost a rhyme in this daily pattern which has played back so well in the past 11 odd days with the only exception being the attempt to make a move back to Fibonacci extension levels for the indices this past Monday.

At Trade Guidance, we attempt to show you how the market patterns have been rhyming with periods in the past and for the present day situation, we compare the markets to 1987 when Fed Chair exchanged hands from Volker to Greenspan, and in today’s’ environment the Fed Chair changing from Yellen to Powell. Markets have a tendency to repeat patterns and the current environment is oh so close in comparison to the 1987 environment. We invite you to do a bit of your own validation, pull up a chart of 1987 of the S&P and compare that to the first three months of 2018 and tell us if you see similarities.

For you intraday participants in the futures and currency markets, we present a playbook style trade suggestions with Suggested Entries, Stops, and Targets.

day trade suggestions

dt suggestions

dt suggestions2

While trading intraday in the current environment can have you all shook up, we make it our job at Trade Guidance to help you with succinct entry/exit suggestions. Email us at info@tradeguidance.com and give us a chance to take the mystery out of your entries and exits and then show you the way to be a consistently profitable trader each day!

Daily Grains Analysis for March 27, 2018

Dry weather in Argentina is supporting corn and soybean prices, with only a few showers over the weekend and little rain expected next week. Relief that US crops were not targeted by Chinese tariffs has also helped stoke buying interest and support those markets. Demand from dairies are declining according to commercials as milk prices are dropping reducing the demand for feed.

Corn Prices

Corn prices are down on Tuesday following whipsaw price action on Monday which saw corn attempt to move higher and then settle on its lows. The first level of support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 370 which comes in near last weeks lows. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 378. Momentum is negative as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The fast stochastics is consolidating just above the oversold trigger level of 20.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices whipsawed closing lower on Monday after attempting to push higher early in the trading session. Prices are forming a wedge pattern as energy is stored and prices consolidate. In the last two trading session prices have carved out a 30 point range.  Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1031, and then a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1015. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The fast stochastic on the other hand is moving higher bouncing from oversold territory which points to higher prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are consolidating in a relatively tight range forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes lower.  Resistance on wheat is seen near the 10-day moving average at 462. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 450. Negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with an upward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 12, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 26, 2018

Grain prices rebounded as reports show Chinese and U.S. officials are having discussions on how to ease trade tensions. After Trump levied 60-billion in Steel tariffs,  the Chinese retaliated on $3 billion in largely agricultural items, but hinted at more to come, including mulling “all options” when asked about ongoing Treasury purchases. Perhaps once the full scope of our tangled economic relationship is laid bare, both sides will have a greater appreciation for its complexity and benefits, while addressing its evident shortcomings as well.

Corn Prices

Corn prices rebounded sharply on Monday but ran into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 379. The first level of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 368. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downsloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices rebounded sharply after breaking down on Friday morning sliding nearly 1.5% and testing support near the 50-day moving average at 1014. A break of this level would lead to a test of the February lows at 967. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1033. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The relative strength index (RSI) which is a momentum oscillator is moving sideways and printing a reading of 52, which is in the middle of the neutral range and reflects consolidation.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices whipsawed but moved lower after testing higher prices.  Resistance on wheat is seen near former support and the 10-day moving average at 466. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 446. Negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with an upward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation.

The US Has All the Tools to Win a Trade War

Advocates of Trump and the current administration will be cheering the president on, but whether the U.S President will find his supporters by his side in the months ahead remains to be seen. Trump’s does have a point, however, it’s a risky path.

There are multiple implications to using the threat of a trade war to expedite the rebalancing of trade terms with America’s key trading partners and when considering the fact that the trade terms have evolved over many decades, ripping off the band-aid that has, not only provided support to the U.S economy, but also the global economy, is not going to come without pain.

U.S consumers and manufacturers are at greatest risk.

A sudden increase in the cost of imported goods from China, would likely to lead to a material pullback in domestic consumption. U.S manufactured goods are just unable to compete and to be frank, even with tariffs, goods from China may ultimately be the preferred option. A material pullback in domestic consumption, something that the U.S economy relies heavily upon, is certainly to the detriment of the economy and the voter.

On the flip side, China is a key market for many U.S multinationals, including the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Boeing, IBM and General Motors, to name but a few. China is more than capable of hitting U.S manufacturers where it hurts, ultimately slamming the U.S economy and the U.S Dollar.

However, the US, still, has more tools to win a trade war with China. Donald Trump plays chess with the Chinese. The US is the number-one consumer in the world and China would not be pleased to lose its biggest client.

China’s reserved response last week was likely to be in the hope of a resolution to trade indifferences that has led to the U.S President delivering on a campaign promise. The lack of a more aggressive response certainly suggests that China is looking to avoid a trade war, while demonstrating an unwillingness to sit by and be bullied by the U.S.

There are ultimately many ways that China can hurt Trump and the Republicans. A cut back on soybean and other agricultural imports would see Trump’s support lifeline from the mid-West be crippled, a move that would undoubtedly hit the President’s ratings and prospects for a 2nd term.

Another retaliatory approach could be through a sell-down of its current Treasury holdings and reduced participation in auctions, a move that comes at a time when the U.S is in serious need of foreign investment, protectionism in place or not. Domestic appetite for U.S Treasuries alone would just not cover it. China’s holdings of U.S debt surged by a reported $126.5bn last year, the largest increase in 7-years.

The downside to such a move would be a material decline in the value of China’s foreign reserves, though the Chinese government is more than capable of devaluing the Yuan, a move that would certainly rile the U.S President even further. Once again, China will be on the defensive side.

Granted that the U.S may be able to win the current battle, but winning the war will be an altogether different proposition, with a full-blown trade war likely to only see losers, with no winners.

Can Trump’s move really make an impact on the current U.S trade deficit?

Well, only if trading partners sit back, accept the tariffs without retaliation. As the markets saw last week, no major global economy is going to sit back, particularly China. The only question that remains, is whether Trump will really push through on a trade war and how aggressively China and the rest respond.

Recessions and a Global Depression have resulted from previous trade wars. While Trump spent much of the early part of the year boasting about the record highs in the Dow, the S&P500, and the NASDAQ, the bragging has stopped and it could soon be the U.S economy and the global economy begin to pay the price…

Daily Grains Analysis for March 26, 2018

Grain prices tumbled early Friday following news that China has prepared a list of products which include grains that they plan on adding tariffs.  This would make U.S. corn less attractive to Chinese buyers which would reduce demand and weigh on prices. Among the items on the list for targeting are soybeans, live hogs and sorghum, though those plans could yet change. The threat of a trade war with China has weighed on agricultural markets in recent days, with soybean farmers and others relying on exports to China.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke down through trend line support forming a bear flag pattern and then continued to slide on Friday. The first level of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 367. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 379.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices broke down on Friday morning sliding nearly 1.5% and testing support near the 50-day moving average at 1012. A break of this level would lead to a test of the February lows at 967. Resistance is seen near former support at 1021, and then the 10-day moving average at 1031. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.  The relative strength index (RSI) which is a momentum oscillator also broke down through resistance which reflects accelerating negative momentum and points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved lower on Friday but seemed to find support near the weekly lows at 446 per bushel.  A break of this level would lead to a test of the January lows at 421.  Resistance on wheat is seen near former support and the 10-day moving average at 467. Negative momentum is accelerating as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 23, 2018

Managed money remains offsides in all three major grain categories, leaving the market vulnerable to a further slide in prices. China is preparing to hit US agricultural goods with tariffs, which could further weigh on grain prices. Among the items on the list for targeting are soybeans, live hogs, and sorghum, though those plans could yet change. The threat of a trade war with China has weighed on agricultural markets in recent days, with soybean farmers and others relying on exports to China.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke down through trend line support and have consolidated below this level which is seen as resistance at 3.78. Additional resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 380.  The first level of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 367. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downsloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Soybean Prices

NOPA data showed that soybean oil stocks continued to rise and moved higher than expected.  Stocks were up 7.4% month over month to 1.856 billion pounds and are 4.9% higher than they were at this time last year. Weekly soybean oil exports were down 7% but were 7% more than the prior four-week average.

Soybean prices broke down and continue to trade below resistance which was former support near the 10-day moving average at 1033. Prices are poised to test the 50-day moving average which is seen as target support near 1010.  Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are rebounded from support levels and are higher by more than 1% in early trade on Thursday.  Target resistance on wheat is seen near former support and the 10-day moving average t 472. Support is seen near the March low at 446. Negative momentum is beginning to decelerate as the MACD histogram is printing in the red with an upward trajectory which points to consolidation.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 21, 2018 – Corn and Soy Bounce but Trend Points to Lower Prices

Grain prices are mixed in Wednesday, after a mixed session on Tuesday that saw corn prices moved lower, but soybean rebound. With China eyeing a tariff on soybeans which could weigh on prices, grains have been punished, moving below support levels. Managed money is offsides in all three major grain categories, leaving the market vulnerable for a further slide in prices.

Corn Prices

Corn prices are consolidating after breaking down on Monday through support near and upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.765 which is now seen as resistance. Additional resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 381.  The first level of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 366. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Soybean Prices

Soybean rebounded but the gains came despite fresh rainfall in portions of Argentina as technically driven trading continued to drive prices. In addition to technical buying, soybean prices were also supported by gains in soybean meal futures, which rose a. Soybean meal prices were supported by meal/oil spreading triggered by weakness in soybean oil futures. Meal/oil spreading also pressured oil share, which fell. The gains in soybean futures pressured nearby crush margins, which were mixed with nearby contracts down about two percent while deferred contracts past the October contract were marginally higher.

Soybean prices rebounded after breaking down through trend line support on Monday and are consolidating in early trade on Wednesday. Resistance is seen near the breakdown level at 1035 and then the 10-day moving average at 1036. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average which is seen as target support near 1009.  Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices broke down trough trend line support which was former support now resistance again at 454.  Support is seen near the February lows at 440. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 20, 2018 – Corn and Wheat Tumble Through Support

Grain prices rebounded on Tuesday after breaking down on Monday.  Corn prices were hammered as hedge fund liquidated positions following a week where they significantly added to long position and reduce short position in futures and options. Managed money is offsides in all three major grain categories, leaving the market vulnerable for a further slide in prices.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke down through support near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.765 which is now seen as resistance. Additional resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 382.1.  The first level of support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 365. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI has come from overbought territory to neutral territory as it moves lower reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

Soybean Prices

NOPA data showed that crush demand moved lower from January, but was record setting production for the month of February, up 7.7% from Feb 2017.  Export activity for the week was down 49% from the prior week but 30% more than the prior 4-week average.  2018/19 export sales were 77.4 TMT.  Combined season sales were down 49% week over week.    Total export commitments are 88% of projections with 25 weeks to go and need to average 277 TMT in weekly sales to meet forecast. Current export sales are 8% behind last year’s pace.

Soybean prices broke down through trend line support on Monday and are consolidating in early trade on Tuesday. Prices are poised to test the 50-day moving average which is seen as target support near 1007.  Resistance is seen near the breakdown level at 1029 and then the 10-day moving average at 1037. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices broke down trough trend line support which was former resistance now resistance again at 454.  Prices are now down for 4-consecutive trading session. Target support is seen near the February lows at 440. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a down sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 19, 2018 – Corn Prices Tumble Through Support

Grain prices were lower early North American trade on Monday, breaking down from support levels. A stronger dollar is weighing on prices, despite fundamentals that show that demand for bean meal is stronger than expected.  The most recent crush report from the National Oilseed Processing Association shows that demand for soybean meal continues to rise.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke down through support near the 10-day moving average at 382, which is now seen as resistance. Corn prices continue to hover near resistance which is near the July 2017 highs at 3.94. The first level of support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.76. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI has come from overbought territory to neutral territory as it moves lower reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

Soybean Prices

NOPA’s latest crush easily beat expectations.  153.72 million bushels crushed vs analyst estimates of 149.44 million.  The February crush was the largest for any prior February on record. The crush was down 5.76% from January, but 7.65% more than February of 2017. Meal exports totaled 755,103 tons, down 12.2% month over month but 2.2% more than last year. Soybean oil stocks far exceeded expectations. Analysts had been forecasting stocks to top out somewhere between 1.65 to 1.84 billion pounds and they came in at 1.856 billion. Month over month, stocks jumped 7.4% and are 4.9% higher than they were at the end of February 2017.

Soybean prices are moving lower early in North American trade dropping more than 1%. Prices are poised to test an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033.  Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1043. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices broke down trough trend line support which was former resistance now resistance again at 469.  Prices are now down for 3-consecutive trading session. Target support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 454. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving lower breaking through support which points to accelerating negative momentum.

Markets Daily Trading Tips – March 15, 2017

5 Year Daily Chart of the VX futures shows that as long as the VX futures remain over $16.28, the equity index futures will be weak. Last week we sold off in the VX futures and the markets rallied. For the VX, the next measured move up from current levels takes us to about $17.00.

For The Emini S&P (ES), as long as we stay below 2783.50, we are in a short setup for the S&P. The morning price action today may likely try a run-up into the initial resistance zone in the 2763.50 area and even into the secondary resistance line to about 2772.75 and this has been the usual practice in recent days, attempt a move up and fail to support levels. Key levels to watch for the Emini S&P today are as follows:

  • R3 (top resistance zone) – 2788.25
  • R2 (secondary resistance zone) 2772.75
  • R1 (Initial resistance zone) 2763.50
  • S1 (Initial support) 2744.50 (we  stopped exactly here last night in the Globex)
  • S2 (Secondary support) 2735.25
  • S3 (bottom level support zone) 2719.75

Daily Trading Signals

Futures

futures daily trading signals

Forex

FX trading signals

Commodities

Commodities trading signals

We analyze multiple markets daily and call the trade suggestions for a whole range of markets. This analysis on the Emini S&P futures is just one of the instruments we track daily and present to our subscribers. If you wish to find out more, please email us at info@tradeguidance.com.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 15, 2018 – Corn Breaks Higher

Grain prices are higher in early North-American trade on Thursday. Hedge fund significantly added to their long position in futures and options which is helping to buoy prices. NOPA delayed its crush report giving soybean a boost.

Corn Prices

Corn prices surged and broke out and are poised to test the July highs at 394. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.82 per bushel. Positive momentum is re-accelerating as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.  The RSI moved higher in tandem with price action reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

Soybean Prices

Hedge funds continued to add to long position in futures and options according to the latest commitment of trader’s report, helping to buoy prices. Expectations for month-ending soybean oil stocks at NOPA facilities range from 1.65 billion to 1.84 billion pounds with an average of 1.77 billion. If realized, the average would represent a 38-million-pound increase from last month and a 4-million-pound decrease from last year. Estimates of end-of-February stocks at 1.64 billion pounds, which implies industry-wide stocks of 2.33 billion pounds. These estimates represents 36.7 days of projected usage in March, which, if realized, would be down three days from January but would be generally in line with last year’s days of coverage.

Soybeans rebounded after closing at session lows on Wednesday but have been unable to take out Wednesday’s highs. Prices are forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes lower. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1047, while support is seen near the former breakout level at 1008. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices opened lower on Thursday and continue to form a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Support is seen near the former breakout level at 469. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.94. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Daily Grains Analysis for March 14, 2018 – Corn Attempts to Break Out

Grain prices were mixed on Tuesday with corn lead the grain complex higher attempting to break out. Hedge fund significantly added to their long position in futures and options according to the most recent commitment of trader’s report released for the date ending March 6, 2018. According to the CFTC, managed money added 64K contracts to long position in futures and options while reducing short position in futures and options by 40K contracts. The 104K contract change in corn positions has placed the open interest in corn futures and options at 349K long versus 186K short in the managed money category.

Corn Prices

Corn prices surged and broke out but were unable to hold on to elevated levels on Tuesday and are forming a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.80 per bushel. Resistance is seen near the July highs at 394. Positive momentum is decelerating as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.  The RSI moved lower but is above the overbought trigger level at 75.14 and could foreshadow a correction.

 

Soybean Prices

Hedge funds continued to add to long position in futures and options according to the latest commitment of trader’s report released for the date ending March 6, 2018.  According to the CFTC, managed money added 33K contracts to long position in futures and options taking the open interest up to 195K, 17.7-times the short position open interest in futures and options in the managed money category. This leaves the market open for a long liquidation.

Soybeans rebounded and closed up on the day on Tuesday and continue to remain buoyed. Support on soybeans is seen near the former breakout level at 1010. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1050. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices opened higher on Tuesday and closed at session lows which is an ominous sign. Support is seen near the former breakout level at 469. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.94. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Daily Grains Analysis for March 13, 2018 – Soybeans Rebound, Corn forms Bull Flag

Grain prices were slightly higher on Tuesday with soybeans and wheat leading the rebound after dropping on Monday. This follows Friday’s WASDE report which was somewhat bullish for corn prices and bearish for soybeans which settled closer to the lows of the session on Monday.  Trader’s will now be eyeing the inflation reports which are scheduled to be released in the U.S. on Tuesday.

Corn Prices

Corn prices were nearly unchanged on Tuesday and are forming a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.80 per bushel. Positive momentum is decelerating as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.  The RSI moved lower but is above the overbought trigger level at 72.14 and could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

The estimated soybean crush margin moved lower as soybean meal and oil price reductions outpaced lower soybean costs. Revenues fell 2.5% vs a 1% drop in costs. The value received from oil and meal per bushel of soybeans crushed fell 33 cents, moving from $12.90 to $12.57. The cost of soybeans decreased 10 cents to $10.36 per bushel, allowing the margin to narrow 23 cents to $2.44 per bushel. Despite the reduction, the margin is currently 73% more than the $1.28 seen at this time last year. Year over year, meal stocks are up 23% from what they were in December of 2016, and oil stocks are 5.5% higher. The USDA expects to grow the crush by 2.69% this year. five months into the current crush season, their projections appear to be on target. The crush is currently running 2.522% ahead of last season’s pace, and 0.17% below forecast.

Soybeans rebounded from session lows after gapping lower on the open on Tuesday. Prices closed higher on Monday after opening at a 14-day low. Support on soybeans is seen near the former breakout level at 1010. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1050. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices opened higher on Tuesday by nearly 1%, after closing lower on Monday. Support is seen near the former breakout level at 469. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.94. Momentum is turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which points to consolidate. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving sideways which reflects consolidation as it prints a reading of 62 at the upper end of the neutral range.

Daily Grains Report for March 12, 2018 – Soybeans Tumble – Corn is Steady

Grain prices were on Friday in North American trade, following a mixed WASDA report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The report was bullish for corn prices which settled on the highs of the session on Thursday, and somewhat bearish for soybeans which settled closer to the lows of the session on Thursday.

Corn Prices

Corn prices moved lower in early North American trade on Monday declining for the second consecutive session.  Prices are forming a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.787 per bushel. Positive momentum is decelerating as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.  The RSI moved lower but is above the overbought trigger level at 70.4 and could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

The estimated soybean crush margin moved lower as soybean meal and oil price reductions outpaced lower soybean costs. The USDA’s January crush data showed some variance from the data NOPA had previously reported.  Per the USDA, 174,516,800 bushels of beans were crushed during the month of January. This resulted in 1.998 billion pounds of oil and 3.867 million tons of meal. The crush slipped by 1.03% from December. Oil production declined by 0.87% and cake/meal output was 0.96% lower. Month ending stocks for soybean meal dropped 30% to 356,194 tons, partially reversing last month’s 40% climb. Crude oil stocks added to last month’s 15% rise by adding an additional 18% to 1.866 billion pounds.

Soybeans rebounded from session lows after tumbling on Friday following the USDA’s WASDE report. Support on soybeans is seen near the former breakout level at 1010. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1049. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving lower and printing a reading of 50, moving out of the overbought zone on Thursday, and into the neutral level which is generally considered a sell signal.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices opened lower on Monday after closing near session lows on Friday in the wake of the bearish WASDE report. Support is seen near the former breakout level at 469. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.91. Momentum is turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidate. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving sideways which reflects consolidation as it prints a reading of 58 at the upper end of the neutral range.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 9, 2018 – Corn Rallies Soybeans Slide

Grain prices were on Friday in North American trade, following a mixed WASDA report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The report was bullish for corn prices which settled on the highs of the session on Thursday, and somewhat bearish for soybeans which settled closer to the lows of the session on Thursday.

Corn Prices

Corn prices surged higher closing at the highs of the session on Thursday and opened nearly unchanged on Friday.  After forming a bull flag pattern prices broke out and are now poised to test target resistance near the July highs at 3.94 per bushel. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.776 per bushel. Positive momentum has reaccelerated as MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher corn prices.  The RSI surged higher and is now way above the overbought trigger level at 78 and could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

The USDA’s March WASDE report showed that the USDA raised its 2017/18 US soybean ending stocks projection 25 million bushels to 555 million, which, if realized, would represent 13.3% of its total usage forecast of 4.16 billion bushels. This is somewhat bearish and weighed on soybean prices. USDA’s ending stocks forecast was 25 million bushels above market expectations, which ranged from 490 million bushels to 580 million bushels and averaged 530 million. The increase was the result of a 10-million-bushel increase in USDA’s crush forecast, which was more than offset by a 35-million-bushel decrease in its export projection. The changes increased USDA’s 2017/18 US soybean crush projection to 1.96 billion bushels and reduced its export forecast to 2.07 billion.

Soybeans rebounded off support but closed lower following the bearish WASDA report. Support on soybeans is seen near and upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1047. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1052. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving lower and printing a reading of 64, moving out of the overbought zone, and into the neutral level which is generally considered a sell signal.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices are hovering near the weekly lows. Short-term support is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.89. Resistance is seen near the July highs at 5.53. Momentum is turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidate. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving sideways which reflects consolidation as it prints a reading of 64.5 at the upper end of the neutral range.

Daily Grains Analysis for March 9, 2018

Grain prices were under pressure early on Thursday in North American trade. Trade concerns are on the minds of trader’s as the White House announced that it would postpone revealing its Tariffs until later in the week. China’s appetite for U.S. soybeans has waned, and concerns abound bean exports could suffer further if President Donald Trump makes good on a promise to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Traders are concerned that China might retaliate by slowing imports of U.S. beans or by erecting trade barriers to them.

Corn Prices

Corn prices were lower but are still forming a bull flat pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.75 per bushel. The first level of target resistance is seen near the July highs at 3.94 per bushel. Positive momentum has stalled and is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a declining trajectory which points to higher prices.  The RSI continues to move sideways but the current reading of 72, is above the overbought trigger level and could foreshadow a correction.

Soybean Prices

Chinese officials in February said they would investigate whether the U.S. subsidizes sorghum exports to the country after the Trump administration slapped tariffs on goods like solar panels that are manufactured by Chinese companies. The American Soybean Association, said Chinese officials in Washington, D.C., told its leaders that soybeans also could face scrutiny.

Soybeans are trading on the defensive. Support on soybeans is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1050. Resistance is seen near the March highs at 1071. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving lower and printing a reading of 65, moving out of the overbought zone, and into the neutral level which is generally considered a sell signal.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices rebounded in electronic trade after closing at session lows on Wednesday. Short-term support is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.85. Wednesday’s outside day which had a higher high a lower low and a lower close is considered a reversal pattern. Resistance is seen near the July highs at 5.53. Momentum is turning neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a downward sloping trajectory which points to consolidate. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving sideways which reflects consolidation as it prints a reading of 64.5 at the upper end of the neutral range.