The Weekly Wrap – The EUR and Yen Come Out on Top as the Equity Markets Hit Corrective Territory

The Stats

It was a relatively busy week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 28th February.

A total of 56 stats were monitored, following the 72 stats in the week prior.

Of the 56 stats,  26 came in ahead forecasts, with 21 economic indicators coming up short of forecast. 9 stats were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 25 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 31, 25 stats reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a particularly bearish week, as the markets reversed bets that the U.S economy would be unscathed from the spread of the coronavirus.

Not only did economic data continue to disappoint, but the markets also raised the probability of multiple rate cuts by the FED.

When gold takes a tumble as investors look for liquidity to meet margin calls, it’s never a good thing…

The Dollar Spot Index fell by 1.21% to end the week at 98.132.

Out of the U.S

It was a quiet first half of the week, with economic data limited to February consumer confidence figures.

A slight uptick in consumer confidence had a muted impact on the dollar on Tuesday.

Market risk aversion and updates from the U.S on the coronavirus pinned the Dollar back early in the week.

In the 2nd half of the week, durable goods orders on Thursday also failed to impress ahead of a busy Friday.

While core durable goods orders rose by 0.90% in January, durable goods orders fell by 0.2%, sending mixed signals to the market.

At the end of the week, the annual rate of inflation continued to fall short of the FED’s 2% objective.

Personal spending rose by just 0.2% in January, which was softer than a 0.4% rise in December.

Chicago PMI numbers were somewhat better than anticipated, however, with the PMI rising from 42.9 to 49.0.

The February numbers suggested that next week’s ISM numbers may not be as dire as the Markit PMI numbers.

It wasn’t enough to support the U.S equity markets or the Dollar, however.

Housing sector numbers and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter had a muted impact in the week.

In the equity markets, the Dow slumped by 12.36%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ tumbling by 11.49% and by 10.54% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was a particularly quiet week on the economic calendar.

There were no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats left the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter as the EU and Britain prepare to return to the negotiating table.

A visit to $1.30 levels early in the week was brief, with the British Prime Minister spooking the markets once more.

Johnson spoke on Thursday, stating that Britain would walk away from negotiations should there be a lack of progress by the end of June.

With so much to iron out and the 2-sides worlds apart, hopes of having a framework in place by June are slim…

In the week, the Pound fell by 1.09% to $1.2823, with the FTSE100 ending the week down by 11.12%.

Out of the Eurozone

It was a relatively quiet start to the week economic data front.

Germany was in focus, with February IFO Business Climate Index figures and 2nd estimate GDP numbers in focus.

On the positive side for the EUR was a slight pickup in the Business Climate Index. This came off the back of a rise in optimism, as the current assessment index eased back.

Ultimately, however, March numbers will give a better indication of whether the coronavirus has affected business sentiment.

With GDP numbers in line with 1st estimates, the focus then shifted to a busy Friday.

Key stats included French consumer spending and German unemployment numbers.

While Germany’s unemployment rate held steady, French consumer spending took a hit in January. The slide came ahead of the coronavirus news, which suggests that a further pullback in spending could be on the cards.

The stats failed to influence, however, as the markets punished the Dollar through much of the week.

Prelim inflation figures out of Spain and France, French GDP numbers and finalized consumer confidence figures out of the Eurozone also failed to move the dial…

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde spoke late in the week. She was of the view that the virus had yet to impact inflation to the point where the ECB needs to step in…

That is in stark contrast to the outlook towards FED monetary policy…

For the week, the EUR rose by 1.65% to $1.1026.

For the European major indexes, it was a particularly bearish week. The DAX30 tumbled by 12.44%, with the CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 ending the week down by 11.94% and 12.25% respectively.

Elsewhere

It was a particularly bearish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 28th February, the Aussie Dollar slid by 1.69% to $0.6515, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 1.62% to $0.6246.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a relatively quiet week for the Aussie Dollar on the economic data front.

Key stats included 4th quarter construction work done and private new CAPEX figures on Wednesday and Thursday.

Both sets of figures disappointed, though a 2.8% slide in new CAPEX in the 4th quarter was more alarming.

RBA monetary policy has not only been in favor of consumer spending but also business investment. The slide suggests a lack of confidence and raised the prospects of a near-term rate cut.

On Friday, the private sector credit figure also failed to impress, with total credit rising by just 0.3% month-on-month.

With the numbers skewed to the negative, risk aversion added to the downside in the week.

Negative sentiment towards the economic outlook led to a slide in commodities and commodity currencies.

For the markets, uncertainly over when the spread of the coronavirus will abate also influenced.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was a relatively quiet start to the week on the economic colander.

4th quarter retail sales figures failed to impress at the start of the week, with sales rising by 0.7%. In the 3rd quarter, retail sales had risen by 1.7%.

Later in the week, trade data and business confidence figures delivered mixed results that added pressure on the Kiwi.

While trade exports to China rose further, January’s trade was not impacted by China’s shut down.

Business confidence figures, however, suggested some doom and gloom ahead.

With exports to China accounting for 27% of total New Zealand exports in January, it could be quite dire reading next month…

For the Loonie

It was a busy week on the economic calendar. Key stats included wholesale sales figures on Monday and RMPI and GDP numbers on Friday.

A rise in wholesale sales in December failed to provide support at the start of the week, as crude oil prices got hammered.

Market fears of a marked slowdown in the global economy, stemming from the spread of the coronavirus, weighed.

At the end of the week, with the Loonie already under the cosh, GDP numbers also failed to support.

While the economy fared better in December, there was a marked slowdown in the 4th quarter. When considering the economic disruption anticipated in the 1st quarter and beyond, it doesn’t look good.

RMPI numbers also failed to impress, with the RMPI falling by 2.2% in January, reversing most of a 2.7% rise in December.

With the BoC in action next week, the chances of a rate cut certainly jumped in the week…

The Loonie slid by 1.38% to end the week at C$1.3407 against the Greenback.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a relatively quiet week on the data front.

The markets had to wait until Friday for key stats that had little to no influence on the Japanese Yen.

For the Government, the impact of the coronavirus on consumer spending is a blow following last year’s sales tax hike. That suggests that government support is likely to come.

In the meantime, however, retail sales fell by 0.4% in January, following a 2.6% slide in December.

The annual rate of core inflation also eased, with the Ku-area seeing core inflation easing from 0.7% to 0.5% in February.

With the jobs/applications ratio falling from 1.57 to 1.49, the only bright data set was industrial production.

A 0.8% rise in production in January was of little consolation, however, when considering the anticipated drop in demand.

Risk aversion ultimately drove demand for the Yen in the week, with concerns over the U.S economy restoring the Yen’s position as the “go-to” currency.

The Japanese Yen surged by 3.33% to end the week at ¥107.89 against the U.S Dollar. Risk aversion in the week weighed heavily on the Nikkei, which slumped by 9.59%, leaving the index down by 8.89% for February.

Out of China

There were no material stats to provide direction ahead of private sector PMIs on the weekend.

A lack of stats left updates on the coronavirus to provide direction that was ultimately positive for the Yuan.

In contrast, the sell-off across the global stock markets weighed on the CSI300 and Hang Seng, though they did fare better than the pack.

The CSI300 fell by 5.05%, with the Hang Seng falling by 4.32% in the week.

In the week ending 28th February, the Yuan rose by 0.50% to CNY6.9920 against the Greenback.

European Equities: A Week in Review – 29/02/20

The Majors

It was a week to forget for the European majors and beyond.

Market reaction to the continued spread of the coronavirus drove demand for safe havens in the week.

For the DAX30, it was 7 consecutive day in the red, sinking the German Boerse into corrective territory in the week. It was even more dramatic for the EuroStoxx600, which fell from an all-time-high 433.9 on 19th February into corrective territory, with a 10% loss coming in just 6 trading sessions.

So, looking at the numbers, the DAX30 ended the week down by 12.44% to lead the way. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 weren’t far behind with losses of 11.94% and 12.25% respectively. Heavy losses on Friday just added salt into the wounds, with the majors not only in corrective territory but also in the deep red for February.

The CAC40 fell by 8.55% in February, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 sliding by 8.41% and by 8.54% respectively.

We aren’t in bear territory yet, but we could be should economic data begin to spook investors alongside the coronavirus.

The Stats

It was a relatively busy week on the Eurozone economic calendar.

Through the 1st half of the week, key stats included German business sentiment figures and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter.

Business sentiment improved in February, with the IFO Business Climate Index rising from 96.0 to 96.1. The upside came off the back of a pickup in business optimism that was partially offset by negative sentiment towards the current state of the economy.

Interestingly, the figures failed to reflect any negative bias stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. The timing of the survey likely failed to capture the spread across Europe and the U.S.

Germany’s GDP numbers were in line with 1st estimates, affirming the stall in the economy in the 4th quarter. Not great with what’s on the horizon…

Later in the week, French consumer spending and 2nd estimate GDP numbers and German unemployment figures were in focus on Friday.

A slide in consumer spending in January will be yet one more concern for the ECB. It wasn’t all bad, however, with Germany’s labor market resilient at the turn of the year.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde was of the view that the spread of the virus had yet to have enough of an impact on inflation to warrant monetary policy support. Next week’s stats could change that narrative…

The Market Movers

From the DAX, it was a bearish week for the auto sector. Daimler and Volkswagen led the way down, with weekly losses of 11.62% and 10.67% respectively. BMW and Continental weren’t far behind, with losses of 9.37% and 9.42% respectively.

It was a particularly bearish week for the banking sector, with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank tumbling by 16.88% and 20.09% respectively.

From the CAC, things were not much better for the banks. BNP Paribas slumped by 17.74%, while Credit Agricole and Soc Gen seeing losses of 17.73% and by 17.64% respectively.

The French auto sector took a more modest hit, with Renault and Peugeot sliding by 16.35% and 8.57% respectively.

Travel and tourism stocks were worse hit, however. Germany’s Lufthansa tumbled by 21.17%, with Air France-KLM ending the week down by 23.90%.

On the VIX Index

The VIX rose by 2.43% on Friday. Following on from a 42.09% surge on Thursday, the VIX ended the week up by a whopping 134.84%.

Risk aversion plagued the global financial markets driving the VIX to its highest level since hitting 50.3 back in February 2018. On Friday, the VIX had hit a week high 49.5 before easing back.

Updates of the spread of the coronavirus led the U.S equity markets into corrective territory and the largest weekly slide since the Global Financial Crisis.

For the week, the S&P500 slid by 11.49%.

VIX 29/02/20 Daily Chart

The Week Ahead

It’s another busy week ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Through the first half of the week, private sector PMI numbers are due out of Italy and Spain. Finalized numbers are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Expect Italy’s manufacturing PMI on Monday and the Eurozone’s composite on Wednesday to have the greatest influence. There could be revisions to German and French numbers to look out for, however.

On Wednesday, German and Eurozone retail sales figures will also be in focus ahead of German factory orders on Friday.

The markets will be looking for some indication of what impact the coronavirus has had on the economy. February and March numbers will be a better guide.

From elsewhere,

Private sector PMI numbers out of China and the U.S in the 1st half of the week will also influence. Expect manufacturing PMI numbers out of China from the weekend and on Monday to have a greater impact, however.

It will ultimately boil down to updates on the coronavirus, however. The next big risk to the market is for the WHO to announce the coronavirus as a pandemic and for more cases in the U.S…

US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Drop and the VIX Surges as the Fed Stands Ready

US stocks continue to tumble on Friday, with the major averages down more than 3% at the lows of the session. Some of the larger tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple slammed lower but rebounded to close well off their lows. Gold prices tumbled on Friday, pulling down the metal mining stocks. The Fed was on the tape mid-day saying that they stand ready to lower rates if need be. The market is currently pricing in 3-rate cuts in 2020 with one coming in March of 2020.

All sectors in the S&P 500 index were lower on Friday, led down by Utilities, Energy was the best performing sector in a down tape. Inflation came out in line with expectations, but this did not affect the 10-year treasury yields which dropped to another all-time low. There is little word from the White House about how they will coordinate a response to the coronavirus which is also keeping inventors skittish. The VIX volatility index hit multi-year highs climbing up to 50%, the highest level since 2008.

Inflation Rises

The Personal-consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in January from December, according to the Commerce Department. Personal income advanced 0.6% last month, the largest gain in 11 months. Expectations were for a  0.2% increase in spending and a 0.4% gain in personal income. Gains in income and spending came against the backdrop of still-modest inflation pressures. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, rose 0.1% on the month and was up 1.7% from a year earlier. Year-over-year price gains were 1.5% in December and 1.3% in November.

Mortgages Continue to Buoy Housing Sales

The spread of the coronavirus and the fears associate with it sent bond yields tumbling, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.23%, an 8-year low. The lower yields are buoying housing sales. The 30-year fixed loosely follows the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is now at a record low.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have Worst Weekend Years

The S&P 500 has had a horrific week, showing extreme volume to the downside. By reaching all the way down to at least the 2900 level during the week, the market looks as if it is starting to change its tune in general. That makes quite a bit of sense as coronavirus is starting to spread, and there’s no way to price and what kind of damage a global epidemic could cause. At the very least, you will be looking at economies slowing down, if not grinding to a standstill.

S&P 500 Video 02.03.20

I believe at this point it’s very likely that the market participants will continue to see value hunters eventually, but we need to see some type of headway made when it comes to the coronavirus and its spread. There might be central bank coordinated efforts over the weekend, but quite frankly that will only be a temporary solution to this very major problem. At this point, rallies are to be sold into, and certainly can’t be trusted, at least not until some type of major change comes along. This has been absolutely brutal week, and typically weeks like this down end up being a “one-off event.” With this, I remain bearish but recognize that a relief rally probably comes relatively soon. That relief rally will simply be an opportunity to get short yet again or perhaps short covering done by others. It’s not assigned to start jumping into the market without some type of actual fundamental change in what’s going on.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have Wild Ride on Friday

The S&P 500 broke down significantly again during the trading session on Friday, showing signs of stability midday. Having said that, the market is extraordinarily oversold, and we have just seen one of the worst selloffs ever. At this point, the market is likely to see a hard bounce, but that bounce may or may not be sustainable. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s likely to happen. The 200 day EMA above will more than likely offer resistance, and it’s not until we clear that level on a daily close then I think the market can truly bounce.

S&P 500 Video 02.03.20

The weekend can bring anything, not the least of which would be central banks deciding to cut rates or do something to help markets. That being said though, it can only help so much and at this point I think that the markets are probably resigned to sell rallies in the short term, at least until the coronavirus disappears or at least gets under control before the market can truly gain for a longer-term move. To the downside, if we were to break down below the lows of the Friday session this could really start to unwind things in cause a lot of problems. At this point, I don’t see an argument to start buying, at least not without some type of major help from outside. Overall, this is a market that if you try to bite here you might be “catching a falling knife.” Any bounce later in the day could be simple short covering than anything else. At this point, the sellers are still very much in control.

Gold Price Forecast – Did Gold Prices Peak?

Since January, we’ve been calling for Gold to reach $1700 by March. Prices hit $1691.70 on Monday before reversing sharply. The massive liquidation in stocks this week may have forced a premature top in Gold.

On Monday I wrote, Gold Nears $1700 Target as Stocks Plummet. Our Gold Cycle Indicator jumped to 405 and entered maximum topping, suggesting the 6-month cycle was nearing maturity. I assumed prices would stretch a little higher, but the ensuing market liquidation proved overwhelming.

Correction Target

If the gold cycle peaked at $1691.70, then I won’t expect the next 6-month low until late April or early May. Preliminary analysis supports a decline to $1480 – $1520.

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What could change our outlook? If stocks continue to plummet, then the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates, and that could put gold back on its feet. With the S&P 500 down 13.40% for the week (as I write), the Fed could announce something as soon as this weekend.

Don’t Let The Bull Throw You

Despite all the volatility, precious metals and miners are in long-term bull markets. There will be pullbacks and corrections, sometimes deep – don’t let these events shake you. The bull is powerful and will do its best to throw you. Grit your teeth, cinch down that flank strap, and decide not to be thrown.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit https://goldpredict.com/

 

Gold Daily News: Friday, February 28

The gold futures contract lost 0.04% on Thursday, as it continued to fluctuate after retracing most of Friday’s-Monday’s rally. The daily trading range remained relatively big yesterday, as it reached over 25 dollars. It shows how high short-term volatility is. Investors were buying the safe-haven asset amid corona virus outbreak, economic slowdown fears recently. But gold has retraced a big chunk of that rally after bouncing off $1,700 mark.

Gold is 1.3% lower this morning despite stock market’s sell-off and the mentioned corona virus fears. What about the other precious metals? Silver lost 1.00% on Thursday. Today silver is 4.0% lower after breaking below January lows. Platinum lost 1.02% on Thursday, and right now it is trading 3.3% lower. The metal broke below $900. Palladium was the only gainer again, as it advanced by 1.68% yesterday. However, it is 3.9% lower this morning.

The financial markets went risk-off since last Friday, as corona virus fears came back again. Yesterday’s Durable Goods Orders release was mixed, the Preliminary GDP was in line with expectations and Pending Home Sales number was better than expected. However, stocks accelerated their sell-off and the S&P 500 index lost a stunning 4.42%.

Today we will have the Personal Spending and Personal Income numbers release at 8:30 a.m. Then at 9:45 a.m. the Chicago PMI will be released. There will also be Michigan Consumer Sentiment number release at 10:00 a.m. So a lot of news releases ahead of us this morning. However, economic data releases seem less important than the mentioned virus scare recently.

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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

The S&P 500 Enters Correction, Coronavirus Fear Grows, Consumer Data Still Solid

The U.S. Market Is Down In Early Trading

The U.S. index futures are down hard again in Friday trading. This is the 7th day of decline and puts the major indices deep in correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite are all down more than 10% in that time.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1200 points in Thursday action, its biggest one-day drop on record. This has been the worst week for equities since 2008 and the pain is not yet over.

The sell-off was sparked by the coronavirus and the market’s realization it will have a profound impact on global GDP this year. Yesterday’s warning from Goldman Sachs, that EPS growth would fall to 0% or lower, is the prime example. In virus news, the spread of the virus is not contained. New Zealand and Nigeria have reported their first cases while China and South Korean totals continue to rise. South Korea is now the center of the spread with 500 new cases. China’s epidemic appears to be slowing with only 327 new cases.

The virus is expected to gain a foothold in the U.S. and may already have done so. California reported its first case of community-based transmission and now has roughly 8,500 hundred people under observation.

 Stocks On The Move

Caterpillar is the worst-performing stock in the Dow. The bellwether of global economic activity was down as much as 3.0% in early pre-market trading but cut the losses to only -2.0% by the open of the session. Shares of Apple were also down about 3.0% in early trading while Chevron and Cisco both posted losses near 2.0%. Hard-hit S&P 500 stocks include Norweigan Cruise Lines and American Airlines are moving lower in today’s session and down more than 20% since the broad-market sell-off began.

Paypal is the latest to issue a warning about the virus. The global payments company says revenue will be impacted by the virus because the cross-border activity is slowing. Paypal says revenue will come in at the lower end of the previously stated range and below consensus.

Consumer Data Remains Strong

The day’s economic calendar is topped by the Personal Income and Spending data. The report shows income rose by a larger than expected 0.6% while spending increased only 0.2%. Analysts had been expecting income to rise by about 0.3% and spending the same. Looking in the rearview mirror, the previous month’s income was revised down by 0.1% while spending was revised higher. On the inflation front, PCE prices rose 0.1% last month and are up 1.7% YOY. At the core level, consumer inflation is up 1.6% from last year.

Global Shares Routed as Investors Ditch Risky Assets on Fear of Worldwide Recession

The major European stock indexes are trading sharply lower on Friday after entering correction territory the previous session, after falling 10% below the record highs seen on February 19. This follows steep sell-offs in seven major Asia-Pacific markets and the United States, which have also reached correction territory.

It took just six days for the benchmark S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Indexes to fall from record highs into correction territory. On Thursday, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,200 points, its biggest one-day drop ever.

In Europe, at 11:44 GMT, the UK’s FTSE 100 Index is trading 6602.33, down 194.07 or -2.86%. Germany’s DAX Index is at 11974.17, down 393.29 or -3.18% and France’s CAC is trading 5354.27, down 141.33 or -2.57%.

Global Stocks Set for Worst Week Since 2008 Financial Crisis

World share markets were headed for their worst week since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis as investors ditched risky assets on fears the coronavirus would become a pandemic and trigger a global recession, Reuters said.

Hope that Fed Comes to the Rescue

Hopes that that the epidemic that started in China would be over in a few months and economic activity would return to normal have been shattered, as new infections reported around the world now surpass those in China.

Hope remains, however, that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut interest rates as soon as next month to support economic growth.

“We don’t even need to wait for economic data to wee how badly the economy is being hit. You can tell that the sales of airlines and hotels are already falling by a half or something like that,” said Tomoaki Shishido, senior economist at Nomura Securities.

“It is fair to say the impact of the coronavirus will be clearly much bigger than the U.S.-China trade war. So the Fed does not have a reason to take a wait-and-see stance next month,” Shishido said.

Expectations the Fed will cut interest rates to cushion the blow are rising in money markets. Analysts say Fed funds futures are now pricing in about a 75% chance of a 25-basis point cut at the central bank’s March 17-18 meeting.

Fear of Major Global Economic Slump

Fear of a major economic slump is driving commodity and equity prices lower.

Fear as measured by the CBOE volatility index or VIX, jumped to 39.16, the highest level in about two years, well out of the 11-20 range of recent months, according to Reuters.

The index, which measures expected swings in U.S. shares in the next 30 days, typically shoots up to around 50 when bear market selling hits is heaviest and approached almost 90 during the 2008-09 financial crisis, Reuters wrote.

“The coronavirus now looks like a pandemic. Markets can cope even if there is a big risk as long as we can see the end of the tunnel,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “But at the moment, no one can tell how long this will last and how severe it will get.”

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Nearing Major Retracement Zone at 2876.75 – 2753.75

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished sharply lower on Thursday after taking out a number of swing bottoms. The sell-off was primarily fueled by a combination of profit-taking and protective sell stops being executed. Given the downside momentum, I’m sure some of the selling was driven by computer algorithms. For those who keep track of these sort of things, the index is down over 10% from its last major top, which puts it in correction territory.

On Thursday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2957.00, down 153.25 or -5.18%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a move through 3397.50. This is highly unlikely, however.

The market is also down six days from its most recent top at 3397.50. Usually we start looking for closing price reversal bottoms after seven sessions especially when a market is testing a major 50% to 6.18% retracement zone. So we’re going to wait until Monday before we start fishing for a bottom especially with China expected to release its Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI reports at 01:00 GMT on Saturday. This report could make or break this market on Monday.

The main range is the contract low at 2356.00 from December 24, 2018 and the contract high at 3397.50 from February 20. Its retracement zone is 2876.75 to 2753.75. Trader reaction to this zone should determine the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Early Forecast

We’re seeing some relatively light selling pressure early Friday. If this is able to generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the main 50% level at 2876.75. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level.

If 2876.75 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the series of main bottoms at 2855.00, 2818.75 and 2787.00. These are followed by the main Fibonacci level at 2753.75 and another main bottom at 2741.75. Watch for buying at these levels also.

The Fib level at 2753.75 is also the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the downside.

We’re going to learn a lot about how investors feel about this market by how they react to 2876.75 to 2753.75. I know it’s a day early, but I wouldn’t be surprised by a major reversal to the upside following a test of this value zone. It there is no reversal then we could see an attempt to build a support base.

We’re not issuing a buy signal. We’re just saying that a test of 2876.75 to 2753.75 could bring in the bargain-hunters.

Is This A Repeat of February 2018 Market Crash?

Back in early 2018, after a dramatic rally in early January 2018, the US stock market collapsed suddenly and violently – falling nearly 12% in a matter of just 9 trading days.  Our researchers asked the question, is the current collapse similar to this type of move and could we expect a sudden market bottom to setup?

Although there are similarities between the setups of these two events, our researchers believe there are two unique differences between the selloff in 2018 and the current selloff.  We’ll attempt to cover these components and setups in detail.

First, the similarities:

_  The contraction in market price just before the end of the year in 2017 was indicative of a market that had rallied to extended valuation levels, then stalled in December as the year-end selling took over.

_  The renewed rally in early January was a process of capital re-engaging in the market as future expectations continued to drive and exuberant investor confidence in the markets.

These two similarities between 2018 and 2020 seem fundamental.

Yet, there are differences that may drive a further price contraction event – beyond what we saw in 2018.

_  The US/China trade deal disrupted market fundamentals over the past 6+ months and established a more diminished function of global economics as the trade tensions continued

_  The foreign market capital shift process, where foreign capital poured into the US stock market over the past 12+ months and supported the US Dollar was a process of avoiding foreign market risks.  This process trapped a large portion of foreign capital in the US markets prior to the 2020 collapse.

_  Global geopolitical functions are far more fragile than they were in 2018.  After BREXIT was completed and prior to the signing of the US/China trade deal, a number of concerns existed throughout the world and are still valid.

_  The Wuhan Corona Virus has changed what global investors expect and how both supply and demand economic functions are being addressed world-wide.

The potential of an early price bottom setting up after this 2020 price collapse is very real.  Yet, the ultimate bottom in the markets may be much lower than the 11% or 12% price decline that happened in 2018.  The scale and scope of the Corona Virus event, should it continue beyond April 2020 (and possibility well into June or July 2020), could extend the price decline even further.  Ultimately, this extended risk function may push the US and global markets to deeper lows before a bottom sets up – yet the outcome may be very similar.

After the double bottom in 2018 setup, a slow and stead price advance continued until the SPY price rallied to new highs in September 2018.  A very similar type of price activity may take place in 2020 after the ultimate bottom in price sets up.

Our researchers believe the ultimate bottom in the SPY will likely happen near $251 – near the middle of the 2018 price range.  Ideally, the event that takes place to create this price decline will likely happen in a “waterfall” event structure.  This means we may see a series of 3 to 9+ day selloffs culminating in a major market bottom near $251.

If our research team is correct in this analysis, a bottom will likely form in the SPY and near $251 to $265 where and extended bottom pattern may setup.  We may see a double-bottom type of pattern as we saw in 2018.  Ultimately, we believe the bottom will setup sometime in mid-2020 and the remainder of the year will continue to support an extended price rally into the end of 2020.

Are we looking at a similar type of price event like we saw in early 2018?  Ideally, yes.  Although, we believe this downside price move will be deeper in terms of the total price decline (likely 18% to 25%) and will end when price valuation levels reach a point where global investors feel opportunity exists beyond risk.

Right now, we believe an incredible opportunity for skilled investors is present and that incredible market sector price rotations are taking place.  We believe the devaluation process will move the markets lower by at least 15% to 20% or more.  That suggests the bottom in the SPY is likely near $251 before we see any real opportunity for price to form a support base and begin to rally higher.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you visit my ETF Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com .

 

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Plunge Again but Find Buyers

The S&P 500 has broken down again during the trading session on Thursday, reaching all the way down towards the 3000 level in the S&P 500 E-mini futures contract. Having said that, the market has bounced hard from that level and it does look as if it is trying to hang on to the 200 day EMA. If it does, that could have been the final flush in the massive selloff and correction. If the market was to break above the top of the candlestick, it’s likely that there will be a recovery. Quite frankly, there are a lot of longer-term traders out there just waiting to happen for those who are willing to step in and pick up cheap stocks.

S&P 500 Video 28.02.20

That being said, if we break down below the 3000 handle, then the market could go even lower, reaching down towards the 2900 level. Ultimately though, the resiliency of the US stock market is something to pay attention to, and if we do in fact get a close that is closer to a hammer than not, it should be noted that the previous candlestick was an inverted hammer, and that is a two candlestick pattern the typically means that you are starting to see some indecision. In this case, indecision when it comes to the selling of the contract. At this point, it certainly looks as if value hunters will be coming back in and trying to pick this market up as it has sold off far too quickly in the last couple of sessions.

Virus Fears Scuttle Market, EPS Growth In Question, Data Still Holding Up

Equities Fall In Fourth Day Of Viral Rout

The U.S. futures market is indicating another deep decline on Thursday. The move, sparked by a growing fear of the coronavirus, shaved another -1.0% and more off of the major indices. Today’s news includes word of the first community-spread case of coronavirus in the U.S. Health officials in California report the first case in which there is no known trail of contagion. The news raises the stakes in terms of economic impact, if the U.S. shuts down like China and other countries global GDP could contract sharply in 2020.

Elsewhere in the world, China continues to report new cases despite signs its containment efforts are starting to pay off. In South Korea, the second hardest nation, the number of new cases spiked to set a new daily record. The disease is not yet contained in that country. Officials in Japan are taking precautionary efforts and have closed all schools, the number of cases is growing in the EU as well.

Stocks On The Move

Tech is among the days hardest hit. The sector has above-average exposure to China and international markets making it particularly vulnerable to the disease. Apple and Intel are among the days leaders but are not the biggest losers by far. Apple and Intell are both down about -1.5% while chipmakers NVDA and AMD have shed -2.5% and -3.9% respectively.

Microsoft and Goldman Sachs are the latest to issue warnings about the viral impact. Microsoft says it will not meet its Q1 revenue targets because the supply chain is re-ramping slower than expected. Goldman Sachs analysts issued a warning that EPS growth for the entire S&P 500 could come in well below expectations for the year, as low as 0.0% but I think their estimate is generous.

Best Buy issued a Q4 earnings report this morning. The company reports better than expected revenue and earnings that were driven by an increase in comp-store sales. Shares were up sharply following the news but have since given up their gains. Virgin Galactic got a major catalyst from analysts this morning. A double-dose of downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse have shares down more than -13.0%.

The Data Is Good, No Indication Of Weakness

The number of new claims for unemployment insurance climbed 8,000 over the last week but remains low and trending near historic lows. The continuing claims and total claims figures, both indicators of conditions within the broad labor market, were relatively flat over the past week. New orders for durable goods fell -0.20% over the past month. The figure is better than expected and accompanied by a double-digit increase in core capital goods orders. On the GDP front, the final read for 4th quarter GDP is 2.1% and unchanged from the previous estimate.

Asian Shares Mostly Lower; Bank of Korea Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged While Aussie Yields Hit Record Lows

The major Asia Pacific stock indexes traded mostly lower on Thursday as cautious investors digested the latest news over the fast-spreading new coronavirus while assessing the potential global economic impact of the virus that has so far infected more than 81,000 people and killed over 2,700.

Although most of the people infected and killed by the disease to-date are from China, the number of cases outside of the country has surged in recent weeks with countries like South Korea, Italy and Iran at the forefront.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday confirmed the first potential “community spread” of the coronavirus stateside. Additionally, late Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced that Vice President Mike Pence will be in charge of the U.S. response to the deadly outbreak. Trump also said the risk of the disease to the country remained “very low.”

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index settled at 21948.23, down 477.96 or -2.13%. South Korea’s KOSPI Index finished at 2054.89, down 21.88 or -1.05% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26687.89, down 8.6 or -0.03%.

China’s Shanghai Index settled at 2991.33, up 3.4 or +0.11% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 6657.90, down 50.2 or -0.75%.

Early in the session, U.S. futures markets are pointing toward a lower opening on Thursday after the benchmark S&P 500 Index wiped out $1.7 trillion in just two sessions.

Bank of Korea Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged

In an unexpected move, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged. Central bank policymakers surprised the financial markets by holding the benchmark interest rate at 1.25% when analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a rate cut. That was despite a recent spike in the number of coronavirus cases in the country threatening its economy.

Aberdeen Standard Investments’ Leong Lin Jing described the Bank of Korea’s interest rate decision as “a little bit curious.”

“Bank of Korea has had a habit of being a little bit behind the curve … when acknowledging that growth is slowing down,” Leong said.

Australian Shares Fall for Fifth Straight Session

Increased reports of coronavirus cases around the world saw Australian shares tumble of a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, wiping out all the gains achieved earlier in the year, the Brisbane Times reported.

All sectors aside from healthcare and utilities finished in the red, led by steep declines in technology and energy shares. As was the case earlier this week, the weakness was driven by uncertainty on the human and economic toll the coronavirus may bring.

In other news, Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell to a new record low of 0.845 percent after Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison said risk of global pandemic is very much upon us, while urging the need to take action.

Additionally, Australia private capital expenditure dropped -2.8% in Q4, much worse than expectation of 0.5% increase. In seasonally adjusted terms, building and structures dropped -5.9%. Mining dropped -2.7%. Equipment, plant and machinery rose 0.8%. Manufacturing dropped -10.1% and other selected industries fell -1.9%.

Trump: US Coronavirus Risk ‘Very Low’; Microsoft Warns of Windows Unit Revenue Miss

U.S. equity markets finished mixed on Wednesday with the S&P 500 Index falling for a fifth straight session, while the selling pressure was a little lighter than the two previous sessions, the price action remained volatile as investors continued to react to headlines about coronavirus and its potential impact on the U.S. economy.

In the cash market on Wednesday, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled at 3116.39, down 11.82 or -0.36%, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 26957.59, down 123.77 or -0.43% and the technology-based NASDAQ Composite closed at 8980.78, up 15.17 or +0.17%.

Trump Says Coronavirus Risk in US is Low

President Donald Trump told Americans on Wednesday that the risk from coronavirus remained “very low,” and placed Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the U.S. response to the looming global health crisis.

He also said the spread of the virus in the United States was not “inevitable” and then went on to say: “It probably will, it possibly will. It could be at a very small level, or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens we’re totally prepared.”

U.S. Coronavirus Update

Dozens of people were being checked for the coronavirus in the New York City area on Wednesday, officials said, but Governor Andrew Cuomo said the state has had no confirmed cases so far, Reuters reported.

“This situation is not a situation that should cause undue fear,” Cuomo told a news conference, saying that 27 people in New York have tested negative for the virus.

I’m happy to say right now, we don’t have a case,” county health commissioner Lawrence Eisenstein said.

In other news, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed an infection of the new coronavirus in California in someone who had not traveled outside the United States or been exposed to a person known to have the virus, a first for the country.

Microsoft Expects Windows Unit to Miss Revenue Outlook on Coronavirus Impact

Microsoft Inc. said on Wednesday it does not expect to meet its quarterly revenue forecast for its Windows and personal computing business as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, sending its shares down more than 1% in after-market trading.

“Although we see strong Windows demand in line with our expectations, the supply chain is returning to normal operations at a slower pace than anticipated,” the company said in a statement.

Microsoft is the second company in the trillion dollar club to withdraw outlook. Earlier this month, Apple said that it may not be able to meet its March-quarter sales forecast.

WHO, The Markets New Grim Reaper

Markets

After an up and down session with trader vacillating on the economic impact, the coronavirus will have on global growth, S&P500 was more or less flat heading into the close, having spent most of the session in slightly positive territory. Most European bourses saw very modest gains, though Asia was weaker. US fixed income rallied further, however, US10Y yields down a further 3bps to 1.33%. Oil down another 2.4%.

But for risk concerns, the bearer of the truth was WHO reporting that 427 new cases of the virus were confirmed Tuesday outside China, compared with 411 in mainland China: the first time that new case numbers outside China were higher than those from within. Of course, the spread beyond China borders has been at the core of the market’s worries since the weekend news flow pointed to a potential supper spreader around the globe and saw risk U-turn lower.

Previous crisis playbooks have all revolved around buying the dip in equities, so I wonder just how much further the fire sale will go before the market at least starts to scale in again. We saw an attempt at a bounce in the New York session before the markets new Grim Reaper, the WHO, raised its ugly head again.

But based on last night’s price action, it does appear that any bounce in stocks is likely to be short-lived. And eventually, the markets could fall deeper as investors start to think what’s the point of trying to pick the bottom in the short term.

Looking further down the line in 2020, the market continues to price in more significant haircuts to large parts of the global economy. At the same time, the idea of a v-shaped recovery seems to be the new castle in the sky. Admittedly things can pivot quickly, but if you believed in the narrative, that easy monetary policy was mainly fuelling the risk rally. Then arguably, you are going to want to see definitive signs of a Fed pivot, primarily as the fundamentals are pointing the other way before feeling confident about buying equities. But on that front, the Fed messaging continues to signal “still too soon.”

On the G-20 coordinated stimulus front and for those looking for shock and awe fiscal delivery from Europe was always likely to be disappointed. News about Germany intending to pause its debt brake sparked a recovery in stocks and a sell-off in Bunds, but it was short-lived. Still, ultimately, the cumulative effect of similarly measured responses around the world might be enough to grease the wheels of the global economy.

Oil Markets 

Traders remain hyper skittish, and oil rallies short-lived as self first ask questions later will be the theme if there is still even the slightest concern over the virus outbreak becoming a pandemic. There has been another big hit to oil on renewed super spreader coronavirus fears.

And as expected, the EIA inventory data which under normal conditions would have been bullish for oil price fell through the cracks as uncertainty over coronavirus will take its toll on oil demand sentiment until its impact can be adequately quantified.

Next week’s OPEC+ meeting should be a positive catalyst, but the fear here is that the outcome might be consigned to oblivion with the market singular focused on virus spread, which has unceremoniously shown up on the doorsteps of the US market. Still, OPEC + has enough weight, and with a hefty production cut at a minimum, it should offer a backstop, and with a problem G-20 concerted stimulus effort surely the bottom can’t be too far from here. In addition, with WTI below $ 48 it could also trigger the self-correcting US supply mechanism as more shale wells go offline due to breakeven concerns.

The Straw that could break the Oil market back?

The biggest concern and the straw that could possibly break the oil markets back is the susceptibility of the US market to this insidious virus, which from a risk perspective needs to rank beyond all other. If the virus spread rapidly in the US, you can’t unscramble that egg.

The most glaring problem is that the US has only tested 426 people, while South Korea has tested 35,000. The US guidelines were only to check those who displayed respiratory symptoms and had recently traveled to China or had close contact with an infected person. The problem is that coronavirus is asymptomatic — it is contagious before the symptoms show.

China had come in for some criticism over the handling of the outbreak. However, as the virus spreads global, those “harsh” measures appear to have been the right thing to do and arguably its Europe and US efforts that could be too complacent and porous. And not surprisingly, any excuse to sell still feels like the sentiment in the market right now.

Gold Markets

It’s too early to cap gold prices as we are not in business as usual market conditions. But of course, there is no denying gold’s safe-haven credentials have been questioned in light of a gold decline as Treasury yields also fell precipitously this week, which should have been extremely positive for gold.

But since we’re only into day three of demand depletion and given the position build of late, this week’s washout still fits into the “healthy correction” category although we might revise that view on a break of $1600.

However, as profit-taking and selling to cover margin calls in the equity markets is decreasing, so the chances of gold rebounding increase propelled by ongoing COVID-19 concerns amid volatile financial conditions.

Beyond the constant stream of buying the dip analysts banter and for investors that have sizable gold positions. there are some concerns

Government spending commitments to contain the virus and e might push bond yields higher and weigh on gold appeal, especially from the fiscal side of the equation. While the Fed advocating for patience doesn’t provide a significant impulse to push gold through $1700. But with yields so low suggesting gold downside should be limited a delayed policy market response could funnel more buying of gold as the longer the Fed sits on their hand, the worse stock market conditions could get

Currency Markets 

The US Dollar

The US dollar has lost its safe-haven status with the coronavirus arriving on the US doorstep. With Fed rate cut probabilities on the rise US bond yields sliding ,fortunately for the global risk markets, the US dollar has started to weaken as reverse Yankee mania sets in.

Asia FX

Outside of the KRW and THB, which remains high beta to further jumps on coronavirus cases withing ASEAN proxies. Asia FX has remained fairly rangebound despite all the coronavirus upheaval around the globe. To no small degree, much of the sell-off Asia FX were priced into the curve ahead of the global equity market meltdown, and at the same time, the Yuan has remained tethered to the PBoC policy anchor by maintaining a stable policy fixing.

The Ringgit

Foreign investors sidestepped Fitch warning (seldom have lasting legs) and have resumed their demand for Malaysia bonds as the BNM rate cut expectations get to move forward. Its a small but positive move in these politically charged times, which continues to weigh on the Ringgit despite the succession scrim looking a bit less messy than at the start of the week. But when it comes to Malaysia politics, all bets are off.

US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Close Mixed; Nasdaq Outperforms; The Russell Drops Sharply

US stocks were mixed on Wednesday after initially rising, but the Dow and S&P moved into the red and remain underwater for the latter half of the trading session. The Nasdaq broke a 4-day losing streak driven by the FANG stocks which outperform. The Russell 200 was the worst-performing average declining by 1.2%. Oil prices were under significant pressure falling 3%, as concerns over the coronavirus continued to weigh on energy. All sectors in the S&P 500 index were lower driven down by Energy, Healthcare was the worst-performing sector. US home sales surged higher rising nearly 8%, driven by rising mortgage applications. The VIX volatility index slipped slightly but still remain buoyed above 27%.

US Home Sales Rise

The commerce department reported that US single-family homes raced to a 12-year high in January. New home sales jumped 7.9% to an annual rate of 764,000 units last month, the highest level since July 2007. December’s sales pace was revised up to 708,000 units from the previously reported 694,000 units. Expectations had been for new home sales, which account for about 12.3% of housing market sales, which would advance 3.5% to a pace of 710,000 units in January. New home sales jumped 30.3% in the Midwest to their highest level since October 2007.

The gain in home sales was driven by rising mortgage application volume which rose 1.5% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 3.73% from 3.77%, with points decreasing to 0.27 from 0.28. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 1% for the week but were still 152% higher than a year ago.

Energy Inventories Rose

US crude oil inventories increased by 500 thousand barrels from the previous week. At 443.3 million barrels, crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week and are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Recover on Wednesday

The S&P 500 initially pulled back towards the 200 day EMA early in the trading session, but then turned around to form a massive hammer. Ultimately, if the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, it’s likely that the market then goes looking towards the 3250 level and trying to break above the previous uptrend line next. The 50 day EMA is starting to turn over at the uptrend line, so will see whether or not we can break back above there. Quite frankly, I think a lot of people out there will continue to look at this as a potential buying opportunity as the US stock markets have gotten cheap. Furthermore, the gap lower is trying to get filled if we do rally that high. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level has just been touched, so quite frankly there are plenty of reasons to think that at the very least people will be looking to get involved.

S&P 500 Video 27.02.20

If we break down below the 200 day EMA, then the market is likely to go down towards the 3000 level next, and then eventually the 2900 level. Stocks have gotten hammered, but people will look at US companies as a bit of a safety play again, as the coronavirus has certainly hurt most markets around the world, but these massive selloffs are healthy considering that the market was totally ignoring the rest of the world. It is still considered to be the most resilient economy, so that makes quite a bit of sense to see money flow into it. Ultimately, it certainly looks as if we are trying to make a stand.

Equities Attempt Rebound, Coronavirus Spreading, 2020 Growth In Question

The U.S. Futures Edge Higher

The U.S. futures are edging higher in early Wednesday trading following two days of massive declines. The broad market made its biggest drop in over four years over the course of Monday and Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite are all looking at opening gains in the range of 0.10% to 0.15%. Although early action looks bullish, traders are warned not to read too much into the move. The Coronavirus is still spreading and its impact on global economic activity only now being felt.

China reports an additional 406 cases in the overnight session with 52 more dead. South Korea says it has 169 new cases and a rising death toll as does Italy. France now reports its first case proving the virus can spread despite the best efforts of health officials. In the U.S. officials report over 50 cases, they are prepping the public for an epidemic the only questions are when it will start and how long it will last. Regardless, the economic impact of this event will be wide-ranging and long-lasting.

Stocks On The Move

The tech sector is trying to move higher in early trading despite its entering correction territory. Now down 10% from recent highs the sector is on the verge of a full-blown bear market. Shares of Apple are among the leaders, down -12% in the last two days, but up about 0.4% in early action.

Shares of Office Depot are among today’s hottest issues. The company reported better than expected results and positive guidance that lifted shares 5.0%. Shares of TJX, parent of the TJMaxx chains of apparel stores, are up more than 6.15% after it reported better than expected earnings. The company says comps rose 6.0% sparking a similar rise in share prices.

Fast-food retailers Papa John’s and Wendy’s are both moving lower. Both companies reported better than expected results due to strength in the U.S. consumer. the downside is outlook failed to impress and that has investors second-guessing their positions.

Volatility Is On The Rise

The VIX, a so-called “fear gauge”, spiked over the last two days. The index, a measure of options prices relative to the S&P 500, has reached levels above 25 and is fast approaching a two-year high. The index shows a high degree of demand for options, protection against a market downturn, and that spells lower prices for the S&P 500.

On the economic front, New Home Sales are due out later in the session. Sales are expected to rise from the previous month and may top estimates. Warmer than expected weather has had a positive impact on other housing data.

 

Is That The First (And Only?) Coronavirus Stock Bottom?

Situation on the world indexes is very dynamic. We wrote a piece about DAX and SP500 on Monday, when the sell-off was just after the take off. Bears did not lose the momentum on Tuesday and entered Wednesday with a very convincing slide (during the early hours of the European session). Stock Markets are not the bottomless wells though. Here, many traders love to catch falling knifes, cats (like in a dead cat bounce) etc. This is what we can witness today, in the middle of the European session.

As for now, DAX and SP500 are trying to establish first, Covid-19 fear induced bottom. I have to admit that it is going pretty well and on a daily chart, in both cases, we have beautiful pin bars. Hammers to be accurate. Should we be surprised? Yes and No. Yes, as SP500 broke already two major supports mentioned here on Monday (3210 points and major up trendline). Also, Dax managed to break the crucial 12900 support. No, as DAX is bouncing from a major up trendline and no, because V-shape reversals is what Stock traders do. We can say, that in the past 10 years it became their favorite movement. Crème de la crème of the Stock trading. We have already witnessed several sharp selloffs and after that, even more aggressive buying fiestas. If from those lows, we would make new all-time highs in a week, probably nobody would be surprised. Well at least those who are on the market longer than a year.

We should not get too optimistic though. The daily candle is not finished yet. Its good for a start but to establish a bottom, we need to keep the price around the current levels or higher. I think that in the current situation, only proper hammer can stop the panic. Daily hammer candle on the SP500 and DAX should definitely attract many investors spooked in the past few days. Some prices started to look pretty attractive, right?