Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Yields Rise on Strong Retail Sales Data, Pressuring Gold Prices

Gold futures are edging higher on Tuesday, helped by a weaker U.S. Dollar, but capped by rising Treasury yields. Well, how can that be? The best explanation is safe-haven buyers drove the dollar beyond its fair value area, meaning it’s overbought and has to come down.

Essentially, the dollar is currently being driven lower by safe-haven liquidation. But Treasury yields are being driven higher by the strong U.S. retail sales report.

At 13:18 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1825.30, up $11.30 or +0.62%. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is at $170.34, up $1.55 or +0.92%.

Just last week, investors were seeking protection in the safe-haven Treasury bonds and the U.S. Dollar in anticipation of a slowdown in the economy caused by the Fed’s aggressive interest rates. Today’s retail sales report shows that the U.S. consumer is still buying despite inflation hovering near a 40-year high.

This supports the Fed’s plans to hike rates by 50 basis points in June and July. That’s bearish for gold. The rate hikes have already been priced into the dollar so now safe-haven longs are bailing on the dollar because the retail sales report is a sign of strength for the economy. That’s helping to underpin gold.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher following the confirmation of Monday’s closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through $1910.70 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1785.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is $1910.70 to $1785.00. Its 50% level at $1847.90 is the next upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract into the close on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to $1822.90.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1822.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pivot at $1847.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1822.90 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at $1809.90.

Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of $1809.90. They will be trying to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. Taking out this level, however, could trigger an acceleration into the support cluster at $1785.00 – $1783.80.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish WTI Traders Targeting $116.43 – $121.17

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading at a seven week high on Tuesday. The catalysts behind the rally are the European Union’s ongoing push for a ban on Russian oil imports that would tighten supply and the possible easing of China’s COVID lockdowns that would drive demand higher.

So essentially, it’s the best of both worlds for crude oil bulls with both supply and demand positioned to drive prices higher. The market is likely to continue to rally until it reaches the highly elusive supply and demand balance point.

At 12:29 GMT, July WTI crude oil futures are trading $111.68, down $0.14 or -0.13%. On Monday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $83.11, up $1.83 or +2.25%.

Also in focus late Tuesday and early Wednesday are potential further declines in U.S. fuel inventories. Weekly inventory reports are expected to show a rise in crude stocks and declines in inventories of distillates and gasoline.

U.S. gasoline prices are currently trading at all-time highs due to low stockpiles. Furthermore, gasoline inventories are expected to drop further as the nation prepares for the start of the summer driving season.

Daily July WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at $113.20 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through the March 7 main top at $116.43 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $96.93.

The short-term range is $116.43 to $88.53. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $105.77 to $102.48, making it support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $111.57.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $111.57 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $113.20 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session surge into $116.43.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $111.57 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term Fibonacci level at $105.77.

Side Notes

A close under $111.68 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for May 17, 2022

The Euro is climbing against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday amid expectations of higher interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB). On Monday, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said a weak Euro threatened price stability in the currency bloc.

An ECB rate hike is not guaranteed, however, due to deteriorating economic conditions. The central bank is not in the same position as the Federal Reserve, for example, to raise rates, despite rising inflation.

At 11:30 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0533, up 0.0098 or +0.94%. On Monday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) settled at $96.63, up $0.28 or +0.29%.

The common currency is also being underpinned by a weaker greenback. Nonetheless, worries that escalating tensions with Russia could lead to a gas embargo, a recession in the Euro Zone and prevent the ECB from lifting interest rates are capping the Euro’s prospects.

“There is undoubtedly a risk that the ECB might have to delay its lift-off in the end or that it will not hike interest rates as much as it currently seems willing to do,” Commerzbank analyst You-Na Park-Heger wrote in a morning note.

US Retail Sales Could Fuel Volatility

Today U.S. retail sales report, due to be release at 12:30 GMT, is expected to show that retail sales increased by 1.0% during April and core retail sales rose by 0.4%. The report will reveal information on how consumers are spending in the wake of inflation hovering near a 40-year high.

A strong report will justify the aggressive tone from the Fed. Treasury yields are likely to rise on the news, which would likely cap the EUR/USD.

A weak report could be an early sign of economic weakness. Although it probably won’t derail the Fed’s plans for 50-basis point hikes in June and July, it could put a cap on future rate hike expectations. This may strenghen the EUR/USD, at least temporarily.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main bottom at 1.0354 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out the January 3, 2017 main bottom at 1.0339 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 1.0642.

The minor range is 1.0642 to 1.0354. The EUR/USD is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 1.0498, making it support.

The short-term range is 1.0936 to 1.0354. Its retracement zone at 1.0645 to 1.0714 is the nearest resistance.

The main range is 1.1185 to 1.0354. Its retracement zone at 1.0770 to 1.0868 is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the pivot at 1.0498 is likely to determine the direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0498 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the resistance cluster at 1.0642 – 1.0645.

Overtaking 1.0645 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 1.0714 – 1.0770 the next potential target zone.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0498 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the minor pivot at 1.0455. If this fails to hold then look for a test of the support cluster at 1.0354 – 1.0339. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major target the January 8, 2003 main bottom at .9860.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trade Through .6380 Shifts Momentum to Upside

The New Zealand Dollar is edging higher on Tuesday, basically tracking its Australian counterpart which is climbing on the back of somewhat hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes. Technical traders are also responding to oversold conditions that are encouraging weak shorts to trim some of their positions.

At 09:45 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6360, up 0.0049 or +0.78%.

While still early in the process, the NZD/USD could be building a support base after testing a major long-term retracement zone at .6231 – .5921 last week. Besides central bank activity, traders are also responding to expectations that China may be ending its lockdowns soon.

US Retail Sales Could Fuel Volatility

Today U.S. retail sales report, due to be release at 12:30 GMT, is expected to show that retail sales increased by 1.0% during April and core retail sales rose by 0.4%. The report will reveal information on how consumers are spending in the wake of inflation hovering near a 40-year high.

A strong report will justify the aggressive tone from the Fed. Treasury yields are likely to rise on the news, which would likely pressure the NZD/USD.

A weak report could be an early sign of economic weakness. Although it probably won’t derail the Fed’s plans for 50-basis point hikes in June and July, it could put a cap on future rate hike expectations. This may weaken the NZD/USD, but more than likely put a lid on any major price advances from current levels.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6217 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .6569 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through .6380 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6380 to .6217. Its 50% level at .6298 is support.

On the upside, the short-term resistance is a pivot at .6393. This is followed by a long-term 50% level at .6467.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to .6298 is likely to determine the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6298 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out .6380 will change the minor trend to up and could create the momentum needed to overcome .6393. This could trigger a surge into .6467.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6298 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the long-term Fibonacci level at .6231, followed by the main bottom at .6217. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the May 15, 2020 main bottom at .5921 the next major target price.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin (BTC) Rallies Despite the Fear & Greed Index at a 2022 Low

Key Insights:

  • On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 4.66% to end a 3-day winning streak and reverse a 4.15% gain from Sunday.
  • Monday’s pullback left the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index at 8/100, the lowest level since a March 14, 2020 low of 8/100.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) technical indicators flash red, with bitcoin sitting below the 50-day EMA.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 4.66% on Monday. Reversing a 4.15% gain from Sunday, bitcoin ended the day at $29,839.

A choppy session saw bitcoin rise to an early high of $31,296 before sliding to a day low of $29,104.

While resistance at $29,000 proved key to preventing heavier losses, the Fear & Greed Index sends a bearish signal.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Falls to a 2022 Low of 8/100

This morning, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell from 10/100 to 8/100, its lowest level since March 14, 2020, when the Index also stood at 8/100.

The Index falls to lowest level since March 2020.
Fear & Greed 170522

Monday’s BTC loss came as investors across the global equity markets and the crypto market responded to dire economic data from China.

The weak stats coupled with the threat of a recession left the NASDAQ 100 down 1.20%. Fed Chair Powell’s assurances on the rate hike front have delivered support. There has been little chatter on the economic outlook, however.

While the correlation between bitcoin and the NASDAQ strengthened marginally on Monday, the knock-on effects from last week’s TerraUSD (UST) de-pegging remain an area of focus.

In the aftermath of the TerraUSD collapse, the market will need to consider a shift in the regulatory landscape and investor sensitivity to any adverse news that could send another crypto into a tailspin.

TerraUSD breaks BTC correlation with the NASDAQ.
BTCNASDAQ 1705 Daily Chart

At the time of writing, the NASDAQ Mini was up 147 points to deliver BTC support.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 2.10% to $30,465.

A mixed start to the day saw bitcoin fall to an early morning low of $29,757 before striking a high of $30,508.

Bitcoin finds early support despite Fear & Greed Index slide.
BTCUSD 170522 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC will need to avoid the $30,083 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $31,058.

BTC would need the broader crypto market to support a breakout from this morning’s high of $30,508.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level at $32,272 and resistance at $32,500. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $34,464.

A fall through the pivot would test the First Major Support Level at $28,860. Barring another extended sell-off, BTC should steer clear of sub-$28,000 levels. The Second Major Support Level sits at $27,889.

A BTC move through $30,500 would support a breakout.
BTCUSD 170522 Hourly Chart.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it is a bearish signal. BTC sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $30,980. This morning, the 50-day pulled back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA; BTC negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a run at $35,000.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a run at $35,000.
BTCUSD 170522 4 Hourly Chart.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – US Retail Sales Report Sets the Tone

The Dollar/Yen is slightly higher early Tuesday as investors await the release of a slew of U.S. economic reports including retail sales and industrial production.

The futures markets are priced for consecutive 50 basis point hikes from the Federal Reserve in June and July and for the benchmark U.S. interest rate to reach 2.75% by year’s end. Today’s reports could confirm those expectations or cast doubts over whether the economy is strong enough to withstand the Fed’s aggressiveness.

At 06:50 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 129.340, up 0.230 or +0.18%. On Monday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY) settled at $72.54, up $0.13 or +0.18%.

Today U.S. retail sales report, due to be release at 12:30 GMT, is expected to show that retail sales increased by 1.0% during April and core retail sales rose by 0.4%. The report will reveal information on how consumers are spending in the wake of inflation hovering near a 40-year high.

A strong report will justify the aggressive tone from the Fed. Treasury yields are likely to rise on the news, which would give the USD/JPY an added boost.

A weak report could be an early sign of economic weakness. Although it probably won’t derail the Fed’s plans for 50-basis point hikes in June and July, it could put a cap on future rate hike expectations. This may weaken the USD/JPY, but more than likely put a lid on any major price advances from current levels.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 126.945 will change the main trend to down. A move through 131.348 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor range is 126.945 to 131.348. The market is currently straddling its pivot at 129.147.

Support is a pair of 50% levels at 127.410 and 126.316.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 129.147 is likely to determine the direction of the USD/JPY on Tuesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 129.147 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a surge into the minor top at 139.813, followed by the main top at 131.348.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 129.147 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move gains any traction then look for the selling to possibly extend into the nearest support cluster at 127.520 – 127.410.

Side Notes

The reaction by U.S. Treasury yields to the retail sales and industrial production reports on Tuesday will ultimately determine the direction of the USD/JPY.  Basically, higher yields, higher USD/JPY and lower yields, lower USD/JPY.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Prediction – Silver prices move higher despite a stronger dollar 

Key Insights

  • Silver prices rise above the $21 level after facing downward pressure last week.
  • Treasury yields eased as investors wait for hints about Fed monetary policy.  
  • Oil prices sustained upward momentum amid supply concerns about an embargo on Russian oil

Silver prices traded higher on Monday despite rising yields and a stronger dollar. However, the precious metal still has a bearish outlook as prices remain pressured around multi-month lows.

The dollar extended gains to two-decade highs as investors place bets on a stronger dollar. Benchmark yields slightly lowered as investors await economic data. The ten-year yield slid by 3 basis points today. 

Gold prices fell sharply as investors develop greater bearish sentiment. A stronger dollar underpins bearish gold prices. Oil prices moved higher on Monday as European diplomats showed optimism regarding an agreement about a potential Russian oil ban, which would reduce the oil supply.

The prospect of the oil embargo offset concerns about demand due to the sustained lockdowns in China.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in lower than expected. Investors await this week’s economic data about retail sales for clues about the size of the Fed’s next move.

April housing starts will be reported on May 18th, which will signal how interest rate-sensitive sectors like the housing market are faring in tightening financial conditions. 

Economists expect there to be a decline, but activity should remain elevated. Another sector to examine that will indicate how rate hikes are impacting financial conditions is foreign earnings for US companies.

The dollar is strengthening relative to other currencies and is acting as a headwind for economic growth.

Technical Analysis

Silver prices recovered from last week’s lows and held above the $21 level. However, XAG/USD faces a bearish outlook and will face a downward break of the $21 level before moving lower. The trend indicates downward momentum favoring bearish traders. 

Support is seen near the 2019 lows near the $19.60s region. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average near the 10-day moving average of 21.82. Short-term momentum turned positive as the fast stochastic had a crossover buy signal.

The medium-term momentum turned negative as the histogram prints negatively with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence). The trajectory of the MACD histogram is in negative territory, which reflects the downward trend in price movement.

Gold Price Prediction – Gold Prices Fall Sharply as the Dollar Nears Two Decade Highs

Key Insights

  • Gold prices rebound after today’s downward swing.
  • Rate tightening places downward pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. 
  • Treasury yields eased as investors wait for hints about Fed monetary policy.  

Gold prices recovered in volatile trading after hitting multi-week lows as higher yields and a stronger dollar placed downward momentum. The dollar rallies to two-decade highs as investors long the dollar. Benchmark yields pulled back as investors await economic data. The ten-year yield slid by 3 basis points today. 

The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in lower than expected. Investors await this week’s economic data about retail sales for clues about the size of the Fed’s next move. April housing starts will be reported on May 18th, which will signal how rate-sensitive sectors are faring in tightening financial conditions. 

Economists expect there to be a decline, but activity should remain elevated.  Furthermore, the dollar is strengthening relative to other currencies and is acting as a headwind for economic growth for US companies with foreign earnings.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices fell sharply as bearish sentiment builds among investors for XAU/USD. Gold prices face downward momentum toward the 1,800 level and are headed toward $1780, which was near the low of today’s trading session.

Support is seen near the late January 2022 lows near 1780. Resistance is seen at the former support level near the 200-day moving average of 1,837.18. 

Short-term momentum turns positive as the Fast Stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices remain oversold as the fast stochastic prints a reading of 19.82 below the oversold trigger level of 20.

Medium-term momentum turned negative as the MACD generates a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average crosses below the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. 

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Test Ten-Day Moving Average Amid Greater Open Interest

Key Insights

  • Natural gas extends gains to start the week.
  • The weather is expected to be warmer than usual throughout the South.
  • The CME Group preliminary readings indicated that open interest went up for natural gas futures.

Natural gas prices rallied in today’s trading session. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal during the next 6-10 days and 8-14 days throughout most of the South.

Temperatures have been cooler in the Northwest and the Northern part of the US. Inventories rose in the latest report.

The CME Group’s preliminary natural gas readings stated that open interest for natural gas futures increased by 8,000 contracts. prices face upward momentum despite that prices decline as consumption falls.

This scenario comes as a result of warmer and more moderate temperatures across the United States and less heating demand. 

Technical Analysis

On Monday, natural gas prices hovered near the 10-day moving average of 7.84 before edging slightly lower. Prices might be entering a consolidation phase amid rising interest but falling volume in trading. Target resistance is seen near the $8 level.

Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.

Medium-term momentum has turned negative. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This situation occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

USD/CAD Price Prediction – USD/CAD Stabilizes Near Friday’s Close Despite Stronger Dollar and Yields 

Key Insights

  • Gold prices recovered after volatile trading. 
  • Treasury yields eased as investors await clues about the Fed’s next move. 
  • Oil prices faced upward traction amid supply concerns over the Russian oil embargo.

USD/CAD remained little changed as the dollar continued to strengthen against most major currencies. The dollar moved higher nearing two-decade highs as investors long the dollar. Benchmark yields traded lower as investors await this week’s economic data. The ten-year yield declined by 3 basis points today. 

Gold prices whipsawed as investors develop greater bearish sentiment. A stronger dollar supports bearish gold prices.

Oil prices rose as European diplomats showed optimism regarding a potential Russian oil ban, which would reduce the oil supply. The prospect of the oil embargo offset concerns about demand due to the sustained lockdowns in China.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in lower than expected. Investors await this week’s economic data about retail sales for clues about the size of the Fed’s next move.

April housing starts will be reported on May 18th, which will signal how interest rate-sensitive sectors like the housing market are faring in tightening financial conditions. 

Economists predict that housing market activity will remain elevated despite a decline from the previous month. US companies with foreign earnings will also face a headwind from the dollar strengthening relative to other currencies, which will be evident in their earnings.

Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD held steady near the 1.289 level, but the pattern indicates that a top may be developing for the currency pair. A break below the 1.289 level will signal further downward pressure, putting the currency pair in the 1.27s region. 

Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average of 1.291. Support is seen near the May 5th low near 1.27. 

Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic had a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum turns negative as the MACD line might generate a crossover sell signal.

This scenario happens when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses the MACD signal line (the 9-day MA of the MACD line). The trajectory of the MACD is in positive territory, which reflects an upward trend in price movement.

Crude Oil Price Update – Uptrend Reaffirmed with $116.43 Next Major Target

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are soaring late in the session on Monday after confirming its uptrend by taking out a pair of main tops at $109.77 and $110.07. The move puts the market within striking distance of its March 7 top at $116.43. The nearby futures contract hit a high of $130.50 at the same time.

The rally was fueled by optimism that China would see significant demand recovery after positive signs the coronavirus pandemic was receding in the hardest-hit areas. Bullish traders were also betting on European officials to make a decision about a Russian oil embargo, which would affect supply.

Finally, U.S. gasoline futures set an all-time high again on Monday as falling stockpiles fueled supply concerns.

At 20:45 GMT, July WTI crude oil was trading $111.84, up $3.21 or +2.95%. On Wall Street, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $83.11, up $1.83 or +2.25%.

Daily July WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at $112.47 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $116.43 will reaffirm the uptrend. Taking out $96.93 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $116.43 to $88.53. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $105.77 to $102.48, making it support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the July WTI crude oil market late in the session on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to $108.63.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $108.63 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out $112.47 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the March 7 top at $116.43.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $108.63 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break back into the short-term Fibonacci level at $105.77. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at $102.48.

Side Notes

Look for a bullish tone in the market as long as July WTI crude oil holds above $102.48.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Confirmation of Reversal Bottom Will Shift Momentum to Upside

Gold futures are surging late in the session on Monday after a sudden drop in U.S. Treasury yields sent the U.S. Dollar to its low of the session. Earlier in the session, the market fell to a more than three-and-a-half month low.

At 19:22 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1823.40, up $15.20 or +0.84%. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is at $170.13, up $1.34 or +0.79%.

10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to Start the Week

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell on Monday to start the new trading week as investors looked ahead to fresh economic data and monitored any clues on the path of monetary policy.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 6 basis points to 2.877%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond declined 1 basis point to 3.086%.

The drop in Treasury yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold futures, triggering a short-covering rally. It also caused the U.S. Dollar to weaken, making dollar-denominated gold a more attractive asset to holders of foreign currencies.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Monday’s intraday chart pattern suggests momentum is shifting to the upside.

A trade through $1785.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, while a move through $1910.70 changes the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1858.80 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is $1910.70 to $1785.00. Its 50% level or pivot at $1847.90 is the nearest upside target.

The main resistance is a pair of retracement levels at $1897.70 and $1908.10.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to $1808.20 is likely to determine the direction of the June Comex gold market into the close on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1808.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for the move to extend into the minor pivot at $1847.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1808.20 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a retest of the intraday low at $1785.00, followed by the January 28 bottom at $1783.80.

Side Notes

Following the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, a close over $1808.20 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2-day counter-trend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Big Hurdle is 4079.00 – 4132.00 Retracement Zone

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher shortly before the close on Monday as the market attempted to bounce back from a relentless selling spree that’s punished tech stocks and pushed the broader market index to the brink of a bear market.

At 18:33 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4042.75, up 23.00 or +0.57%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $403.70, up $1.91 or +0.48%.

Early in the session, major tech names continued to take a hit on Monday. Shares of Apple, which fell into a bear market at one point last week, fell 1%. Tesla shares dropped 5%. Shares of Google-parent Alphabet declined 1.6%. Late in the session, Apple was up 0.14%, while both Tesla and Alphabet trimmed their losses.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3855.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4303.00 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 4303.00 to 3855.00. Its retracement zone at 4079.00 to 4132.00 is the nearest upside target.

The intermediate range is 4509.00 to 3855.00. Its 50% level or pivot is 4182.00.

The main retracement zone resistance comes in at 4327.50 to 4439.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 3949.25 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3949.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the short-term 50% level at 4079.00.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of 4079.00. Overcoming this level, however, could trigger another surge into the Fibonacci level at 4132.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3949.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly lead to a retest of the main bottom at 3855.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Update for May 16, 2022

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Monday as Euro Zone Government bonds rose back towards recent multi-year highs, after European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said a weak Euro threatened price stability in the currency bloc.

The Euro’s weakness on currency markets could threaten the ECB’s efforts to steer inflation towards its target, Villeroy said.

At 18:15 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.0423, up 0.0015 or +0.15%. The Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) is at $96.49, up $0.14 or +0.14%.

“Let me stress this:  we will carefully monitor developments in the effective exchange rate, as a significant driver of imported inflation,” Villeroy told a conference at the Bank of France, which he also heads.

“A Euro that is too weak would go against our price stability objective.”

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher following the confirmation of Friday’s closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 1.0642 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.0354 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is 1.0642 to 1.0354. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.0498 is the nearest upside target.

The short-term range is 1.0936 to 1.0354. Its retracement zone at 1.0645 to 1.0714 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 1.0397 will determine the direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.0397 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 1.0439 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an intraday surge into the pivot at 1.0498.

Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of 1.0498, but overcoming it could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next major target a resistance cluster at 1.0642 – 1.0645.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.0397 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly lead to a retest of the minor bottom at 1.0354, followed by the January 3, 2017 main bottom at 1.0339.

The main bottom at 1.0339 is very important because it is the last potential support before the January 8, 2003 main bottom at .9860.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Strong Intraday Rebound Puts WTI Crude in Position to Challenge $110.07 Main Top

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Monday, but clawing back most of their earlier losses after the market found some support on supply concerns.

Oil prices retreated after a strong close on Friday as widespread lockdowns in China and weak Chinese economic data fueled fears of a global recession. However, the market was underpinned as the European Union moved closer to an import ban on Russian crude.

At 12:54 GMT, July WTI crude oil is trading $108.07, down $0.56 or -0.52%. This is up from an intraday low of $106.27. On Friday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $81.29, up $2.06 or +2.60%. It is expected to open today’s session slightly lower.

Besides Chinese demand and European supply issues, traders are also monitoring U.S. gasoline stocks. U.S. gasoline futures set an all-time high again on Monday as falling stockpiles fueled supply concerns. Supply is expected to continue to fall and prices rise as traders prepare for the summer driving season.

Daily July WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at $109.82 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. Taking out $110.07 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through $96.93 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is $116.43 to $88.53. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $105.77 to $102.48, making it support.

The minor range is $92.15 to $109.82. Its retracement zone at $100.99 to $98.90 is additional support.

The combination of the two retracement zones makes a pair of 50% levels at $102.48 – $100.99 the major support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to $105.77 will likely determine the direction of the July WTI crude oil market on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $105.77 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at $109.82 will indicate the buying is getting stronger and could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the main top at $110.07.

A trade through $110.07 will reaffirm the uptrend and could trigger an acceleration into the March 7 main top at $116.43.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $105.77 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into a series of potential support levels at $102.48, $100.99 and $98.90.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XRP Takes a Dive Ahead of Wednesday’s SEC v Ripple Court Date

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, XRP rose by 5.07%. Following a 0.92% gain from Saturday, XRP ended the week down by 21% to $0.4475.
  • Stablecoin market angst, stemming from the TerraUSD (UST) de-peg with the dollar, sent the crypto market into the deep red.
  • Market reaction to Ripple’s court submission was upbeat ahead of the SEC’s submission this Wednesday.

On Sunday, XRP. Rose by 5.07%. Following a 0.92% gain from Saturday, XRP ended the week down 21% to $O0.4475.The downside came despite a positive reaction to Ripple’s Friday court submission on the SEC v Ripple case.

Last week, Ripple filed a reply to the SEC Attorney-Client Privilege brief relating to William Hinman’s 2018 speech and notes.

William Hinman, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance, remains a central figure in the SEC v Ripple case.

In a 2018 speech, Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. The SEC is looking to shield documents and emails relating to internal discussions and Hinman’s famous speech.

SEC to Submit a Reply to Ripple’s Friday Response on Wednesday

This Wednesday, the SEC is to respond to Ripple’s reply to the SEC brief. The Hinman files have become so pivotal that Ripple defense lawyer Matthew Solomon noted the SEC making at least six “filings in opposition to Defendant’s August 10, 2021 motion to compel.”

Last Friday, Ripple delivered a compelling argument. It remains to be seen, however, whether the SEC can convince the judge to do a complete about turn on the issue of attorney-client privilege.

In January and in April, the court ruled in favor of Ripple, forcing the SEC into requests for extensions and additional motions.

With the court ruling likely key for both sides, either side may contest any court ruling.

For the crypto market, an outcome in favor of the SEC would test XRP support ahead of any further motions.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 7.22% to $0.4152. A bearish morning saw XRP slide to an early morning low of $0.4084 before finding support.

XRP on the slide ahead of SEC v Ripple court date.
XRPUSD 160522 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP will need to move through the First Major Support Level at $0.4247 and the $0.4371 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level at $0.4595. XRP would need broader crypto market support to return to $0.45 levels.

In the event of an extended rally, XRP should test the Second Major Resistance Level at $0.4717. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.5062.

Failure to move through the First Major Support Level at $0.4247 would bring the second Major Resistance Level at $0.4026 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off throughout the day, XRP should avoid sub-$0.40. The Third Major Support Level sits at $0.3678.

XRP tests support levels early.
XRPUSD 160522 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bearish signal. At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.4608. This morning, the 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA also pulled back from the 200-day EMA, XRP negative.

A move through the 50-day EMA would support a return to $0.50. While sentiment from the broader crypto market will influence, this week’s submissions and any commentary will be the key.

Near-term, SEC v Ripple court rulings will be the key.
XRPUSD 160522 4-Hourly Chart

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Rebounding after Counter-Trend Buyers Defended $1783.80 Bottom

Gold futures are down on Monday but off overnight session lows as firm Treasury yields and U.S. Dollar weighed on demand for bullion. The market bounced after nearing a 3-1/2 month low early in the session. The catalyst behind the move may have been a drop in demand for riskier assets after China released gloomy economic reports.

Higher Treasury yields tend to raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while a stronger greenback tends to weigh on foreign demand for the dollar-denominated metal. However, signs of an economic slowdown tend to be supportive for gold because they could encourage central banks from raising interest rates too aggressively.

At 12:11 GMT, June Comex gold is trading $1799.50, down $8.70 or -0.48%. On Friday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $168.81, down $1.36 or -0.80%.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the January 28 bottom at $1783.80 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through $1910.70 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1858.80 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is $1910.70 to $1785.00. Its 50% level or pivot is the nearest resistance at $1847.90.

The key resistance is formed by a short-term Fibonacci level at $1897.70 and a long-term 50% level at $1908.10.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to $1808.20 is likely to determine the direction of the June Comex gold market on Monday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1808.20 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at $1783.80.

Taking out $1783.80 will reaffirm the downtrend and could trigger a further break into the December 15, 2021 main bottom at $1757.60, followed by the September 29, 2021 main bottom at $1726.40.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1808.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is a minor pivot at $1821.90. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with $1847.90 the next likely upside target, followed by the minor top at $1858.80.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 12622.25, Weakens Under 12121.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower during the pre-market session on Monday, after oil prices slid and riskier currencies took a hit during the Asian and European sessions as unexpectedly weak economic data from China highlighted fears about a slowdown in growth.

At 09:11 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12341.00, down 41.75 or -0.34%. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) settled at $301.89, up $10.74 or +3.69%.

China’s April retail sales plunged 11.1% on the year, almost twice the fall forecast, as full or partial COVID-19 lockdowns were imposed in dozens of cities. Industrial output dropped 2.9% when analysts had looked for a slight increase.

NASDAQ component earnings highlights this week include Take-Two Interactive Software on Monday, Cisco Systems and Analog Devices on Wednesday, and Applied Materials on Thursday.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 11689.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 12553.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The major support is a long-term 50% level at 11671.25. This is followed by a long-term Fibonacci level at 10468.25.

The first minor range is 12553.25 to 11689.00. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 12121.00, making it support.

The second minor range is 13555.25 to 11689.00. Its pivot at 12622.25 is the next upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 12121.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12121.25 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at 12553.25, followed by the second pivot at 12622.25.

Sellers could come in on the first test of this level, but overtaking it with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12121.00 will signal the return of sellers.

If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 11689.00, followed by the major 50% level at 11671.25.

The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the November 2, 2020 main bottom at 10913.75 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .6941 Pivot Sets the Tone

The Australian Dollar is edging lower on Monday after an early rally fizzled following the release of weak economic data out of China. The news raised concerns over a global recession, pressuring the higher-risk currency.

Chinese retail sales sank 11.1% in April from a year earlier, far beyond forecasts of a 6.1% drop and testimony to how tough coronavirus lockdowns have been there. Additionally, industrial output also fell a steep 2.9% on the year, in a grim omen for resource demand.

The Asian giant is Australia’s biggest export market and the Aussie is often used as a liquid proxy for the Yuan, according to Reuters.

At 08:23 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6917, down 0.0021 or -0.30%. On Friday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $68.59, up $0.67 or +0.98%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6829 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7266 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A new minor bottom at .6829 was confirmed overnight. A trade through .7053 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .7053 to .6829. The AUD/USD is currently straddling its pivot at .6941.

The second minor range is .7266 to .6829. Its retracement zone at .7048 to .7099 is the next upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action indicates the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .6941. ‘

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move under .6941 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor level at .6894. This is the last potential support before the minor bottom at .6829, and a pair of long-term bottoms at .6811 and .6777.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move over .6941 will signal the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a near-term surge into the resistance cluster at .7048 to .7053.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Focus Shifts to Retail Earnings Reports

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging lower early Monday after a tumultuous week ended with a strong recovery rally the previous session, ahead of a big earnings week for retailers.

Friday’s gains came as investors went into relief rally mode to cap off a bad week for stocks in which the benchmark S&P 500 index nearly descended into bear market territory.

At 07:08 GMT, the blue chip average is trading 31947, down 173 or -0.54%. On Friday, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average EFT (DIA) settled at $322.25, up $4.61 or +1.45%.

Retail earnings season kicks off this week with several big-box retailers set to report results for the first quarter, including Dow components Walmart and Home Depot.

Investors will also have their eye on retail sales data this week, which could give them insight into how retailers are managing inflation, which remains near 40-year highs.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31148 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 34027 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 34027 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 32588 to 32927 is the nearest upside target and potential resistance.

The short-term range is 35413 to 31148. Its retracement zone at 33281 to 33784 is additional resistance.

The major resistance is the price cluster at 33784 to 33928.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 31704 is likely to determine the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones futures contract early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 31704 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 32259 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor retracement zone at 32588 – 32927. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers to re-emerge on the first test of this area.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 31704 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 31148. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.