Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – WTI Hits One-Year Low as China’s COVID Protests Spur Demand Worries

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading sharply lower as massive protests in China over strict COVID-19 restrictions have raised concerns over a global recession and lower fuel demand.

At 09:53 GMT, January WTI crude oil futures are trading $73.97, down $2.31 or -3.03% and February Brent crude oil is at $81.34, down $2.37 or -2.83%. On Friday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $66.66, down $0.75 or -1.11%.

Confusion over Group of Seven (G7) policy is also adding to the selling pressure as well as uncertainty ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4. The turmoil in China is also driving up the safe-haven U.S. Dollar which is weighing on foreign demand for dollar-denominated crude.

Escalating Protests in China Raise Concerns over Fuel Demand

Protests in China against the government’s strict anti-COVID policies are raising enough uncertainty about the strength of its economy to drive investors away from riskier assets like crude oil.

China’s stringent COVID restrictions have taken a heavy toll on its economy, raising concerns about fuel demand. Authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth, but there is no evidence that anything is working at this time. On Friday, for example, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the nation’s central bank, said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 25 basis points (bps), effective from December 5.

Inability of G7 to Determine Russian Price Cap Adds to Bearish Outlook

Group of Seven (G7) and European Union diplomats have been discussing a price cap on Russian oil of between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow’s military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets, according to Reuters.

For weeks, the anticipation of this plan has propped up prices, but all that fell apart when a meeting of European Union government representatives, scheduled for Nov. 25 evening to discuss the issue, was cancelled. Last Thursday, EU governments were split on the level at which to cap Russian oil prices.

The price cap is due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude also takes effect.

Wildcard is OPEC+ Production Levels

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will meet on December 4.

In October, OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023.

At this next meeting, OPEC+ will be focused on Western plans for a price cap on Russian oil as well as taking into account the condition and balance of the market.

OPEC+ is the wildcard. Oil prices are likely to head further lower until the group agrees on a further reduction of production quota.

Others are adding that the U.S. may save prices from falling fast if it moves to reload its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). But this may be difficult since the Biden Administration is committed to driving down gasoline prices.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

ETH and BTC Are Under NASDAQ Index Influence on China Protest News

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) had bearish sessions on Sunday while ending the week in positive territory.
  • Risk aversion sent BTC and ETH into the red on Sunday and through this morning’s session.
  • News of protests across China over lockdown measures sent riskier assets into negative territory this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 1.00% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.50% gain from Saturday, ETH ended the week up 4.67% to $1,193. Despite the Sunday loss, ETH revisited $1,200 for a fourth consecutive session.

A bullish morning saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,223. Coming within range of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,228, ETH slipped to sub-$1,210 before steadying. However, a late sell-off saw ETH slide to a final-hour low of $1,188. Finding support at the First Major Support Level at $1,189, ETH ended the day at $1,193.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.15%. Following a 0.36% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the day at $16,435. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fifth consecutive day while extending the losing streak to four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,603. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642, BTC slid to a late low of $16,410. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,435.

The end of the US Thanksgiving holidays left trading volumes on the lower side. While investor sentiment toward FTX contagion continued to improve, risk aversion hit the global financial markets in the final hour (UTC) of the Sunday session and this morning.

News of protests across China sent riskier assets into negative territory, overshadowing investor optimism of lower FTX contagion risk.

Later today, FTX news updates and the NASDAQ Composite Index will provide direction through the afternoon session. At the time of writing, the NASDAQ mini was down 90.25 points.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 1.93% to $1,170. A bearish start to the day saw ETH slide from an early high of $1,199 to a low of $1,158.

ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,180 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,166.

ETH on the back foot.
ETHUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through S1 and the $1,201 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,215 and the Sunday high of $1,223. An ETH return to $1,200 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the NASDAQ Index and the crypto news wires need to provide support.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,236. Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $1,271.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,166 in play. However, barring an extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,150 and the third Major Support Level at $1,131.

News of more crypto platforms freezing withdrawals would bring sub-$1,100 into play.

ETH support levels in play.
ETHUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,194. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through S1 ($1,180) and the 50-day EMA ($1,194) would support a run at R1 ($1,215) and the 100-day EMA ($1,226). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,194) would leave ETH under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.45% to $16,197. A bearish start to the day saw BTC slide from an early high of $16,487 to a low of $16,052. BTC fell through the day’s Major Support Levels before a move back through the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,097.

BTC under NASDAQ pressure.
BTCUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through S2, S1, and the $16,483 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,555 and the Sunday high of $16,603. A return to $16,500 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need the NASDAQ Composite Index and friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,676. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $16,869.

Failure to move through S2, S1, and the pivot would leave the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,097 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000.

However, negative FTX-related news or a risk-off fueled extended sell-off would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

BTC support levels in play.
BTCUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,504. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A BTC move through the Major Support Levels and a breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,504) would bring R1 ($16,555) into play. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,504) would leave BTC under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: Bears Target Sub-$0.300 on Risk Aversion

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, ADA fell by 0.32% to end the week up 0.32% to $0.313
  • ADA was range-bound until a final-hour reversal, fueled by the NASDAQ mini that responded to news of social unrest in China.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Sunday, ADA ended the day with a 0.32% loss. After a flat Saturday session, ADA ended the week up 0.32% to $0.313.

A bullish morning saw ADA rise to a mid-morning high of $0.319. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.320, ADA succumbed to broader market forces in the final hour, sliding to a low of $0.311. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.309, ADA wrapped up the day at $0.313.

It was another quiet session, with the US Thanksgiving Holidays leaving trading volumes on the lighter side.

ADA trading volumes remain depressed.
CMC ADA Trading Volumes 281122

Overnight, a lack of network news left ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Charles Hoskinson Fails to Distract Investors from China News

In the final hour of the Sunday session (UTC), the NASDAQ mini kicked off the post-Thanksgiving holidays with a fall into negative territory.

Crude oil prices, the Hang Seng, the CSI300, and the DAX were also in the red. With little else for crypto investors to consider, the ADA and the crypto market tracked riskier assets into negative territory.

News of protests across China over the Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy and lockdown measures raised red flags. With new COVID-19 cases on the rise on Monday, stringent lockdown measures could disrupt supply chains and create uncertainty over inflation and economic growth.

Weekend updates from Input Output HK (IOHK) were not impressive enough to distract investors. Charles Hoskinson was also unable to distract investors from the news wires.

On Sunday, IOHK republished the weekly development report that showed a modest increase in projects on the Cardano network. Investors continue to hold out for an influx of projects following the Vasil hard fork.

Media outlets also continued to cover Charles Hoskinson’s response to the announcements of Aradana and Orbis halting projects on the Cardano network. Hoskinson failed to provide comfort, with the collapse of FTX shattering investor trust.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was down 2.56% to $0.305. A bearish morning saw ADA slide from an early high of $0.314 to a low of $0.300.

ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.310 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.306.

ADA under pressure.
ADAUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA has to move through the Major Support Levels and the $0.314 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318. Avoiding sub-$0.300 and a return to $0.315 would signal a breakout afternoon session. The NASDAQ Composite Index and FTX news updates will likely be focal points beyond Cardano network updates.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.322 and $0.325 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.330.

Failure to move through the Major Support Levels and the pivot would leave the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.298 in play. However, barring an extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid the current-year low of $0.295.

Negative FTX-linked news would test support at $0.295.

ADA support levels in play.
ADAUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.316. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the Major Support Levels would bring the 50-day EMA ($0.316) and R1 ($0.318) into play. However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure and sub-$0.300 in view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 281122 4-Hourly Chart

GBP to USD Forecasts: Risk Aversion to Leave Sub-$1.20 in View

It is a quiet day for the GBP/USD. There are no UK economic indicators to influence the GBP/USD today.

Through the early part of the Monday session, risk aversion weighed on the Pound. News of protests across China over COVID-19 lockdown measures sent riskier assets into the red and drove demand for the Greenback.

Later today, a lack of stats will also leave the Pound in the hands of the BoE and government chatter. However, with no MPC members due to speak today, investors will need to monitor comments to the media.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was down 0.14% to $1.20693. A mixed morning saw the GBP/USD rise to an early high of $1.20822 before falling to a low of $1.20252.

The Pound fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2054 before finding support.

GBP to USD under early pressure.
GBPUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The Pound needs to move through the $1.2091 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.2123 and the Friday high of $1.21276. Risk-on sentiment and hawkish MPC member chatter would support a bullish session.

In the case of an extended rally, the GBP/USD would likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2160 and $1.22. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.2230.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2054 in play. However, barring an extended risk-off-fueled pullback, the GBP/USD should avoid sub-$1.20. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.2021 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.1951.

GBP to USD support levels in play below the pivot.
GBPUSD 281122 1 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bullish signal. The GBP/USD sits above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.19440. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($1.19440) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.2123) to target R2 ($1.2160) and $1.22. However, a fall through S1 ($1.2054) would bring S2 ($1.2021), S3 ($1.1951), and the 50-day EMA ($1.19440) into view.

EMAs remain bullish.
GBPUSD 281122 4-Hourly Chart

The US Session

There are no US economic indicators for the markets to consider, leaving FOMC member chatter to influence. FOMC member Williams will speak today.

However, investors will need to monitor FOMC member commentary with the media. Following last week’s FOMC meeting minutes, hawkish commentary would move the dial.

 

AUDUSD Forecast – Pressured as China’s COVID Protests Grow

The Australian Dollar is sharply lower on Monday as investors shed higher riskier currencies amid concerns that growing protests in China against the government’s zero COVID-policy would further undermine the world’s second-largest economy.

Over the weekend, waves of protests against China’s zero-COVID approach spread to many parts of the country as the number of COVID cases continued to hit record highs. That fueled concerns about the health of China’s economy and cast a pall over the global growth outlook, according to Reuters.

At 06:15 GMT, the AUDUSD is trading .6677, down 0.0078 or -1.15%. On Friday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (FXA) settled at $66.77, up $0.05 or +0.07%.

In economic news, traders showed little reaction to a report that showed Australia’s retail sales suffered the first decline of the year. This provided proof that the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) interest rate hikes were working to cool red-hot demand.

Looking ahead, financial market traders are factoring in another quarter-point hike to 3.10% at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting next week.

Daily AUDUSD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower following the confirmation of Friday’s closing price reversal top.

A trade through .6798 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through .6585 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is .6798 to .6585. The AUD/USD is currently straddling its pivot at .6692.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a long-term 50% level at .6760. On the downside, the nearest support is a Fibonacci level at .6631, followed by a 50% level at .6543.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the pivot at .6692 is likely to determine the direction of the AUDUSD on Monday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6691 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is .6631, followed by the main bottom at .6585. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down with .6543 the next target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6692 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into .6760, followed by a pair of main tops at .6781 and .6798. Taking out the latter could trigger a surge into the Sept. 13 main top at .6916.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XRP Coughs Up $0.40 Despite Optimism Toward the SEC v Ripple Case

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.15%. Marking the sixth gain from seven sessions, XRP ended the day at $0.39656.
  • XRP bucked the broader market trend, with investor hopes of a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple case providing support.
  • However, the technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a possible return to sub-$0.35.

On Sunday, XRP rose by 0.13%. Partially reversing a 2.93% loss from Saturday, XRP ended the week up by 9.91% to $0.39676. Notably, XRP revisited $0.42 for the first time since November 8.

After a bullish morning, XRP surged to a high of $0.42300. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4089 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4217. However, a late crypto market reversal led to an XRP fall to a low of $0.39468. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3880, XRP wrapped up the day at $0.39656.

China Protests Over COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leave XRP at Sub-$0.40

News reports of protests across China over the latest COVID-19 lockdown measures weighed on XRP and the broader crypto market.

XRP and the broader market hit reverse in the final hour of the Sunday session. The protests raise concerns over how the government will respond and what implications the lockdown measures will have on the economy and global supply chains.

The Hang Seng and the CSI 300 were down 1.73% and 1.47% in early trading, with the NASDAQ mini down 89.75 points in response.

XRP has shown increased volatility to bearish events as investors hold out for the November 30 Court filings. Investor sentiment toward the outcome of the ongoing SEC v Ripple case has turned positive, supporting an XRP return to $0.42.

On Wednesday, the SEC and defendants must file summary judgment reply briefs. The public can access redacted versions on December 5. The reply briefs are significant as Ripple could use the filing to corner the SEC into a settlement.

William Hinman’s speech-related documents and the Amicus Briefs will likely be areas of interest. While the defendants have the documents in their possession, the SEC will want to prevent the public from accessing the Hinman documents.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

By way of history, the SEC failed to shield the Hinman speech-related documents on more than six occasions.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 4.61% to $0.37826. A bearish start to the day saw XRP slide from an early high of $0.39853 to a low of $0.37312.

XRP fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3865 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3764.

XRP on the back foot.
XRPUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through S1 ($0.3865) and the $0.4047 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4148 and the Sunday high of $0.42300. A return to $0.40 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4331 and $0.4350. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4614.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3764 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3700 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3481.

Price movement today will likely hinge on updates from China and the global indices, FTX news, and any unexpected filings or rulings from the Court on the SEC v Ripple case.

XRP support levels in play.
XRPUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38999. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through S1 ($0.3865) and the 50-day ($0.38999) and 100-day ($0.39179) EMAs would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.40625) and R1 ($0.4148) into view. However, failure to move through S1 and the 50-day EMA would leave S2 ($0.3764) in play.

EMAs bearish.
XRPUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

DOGE and SHIB Slide as Sentiment Turns Bearish on China News

Key Insights:

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu coin (SHIB) bucked the broader market trend on Saturday, with DOGE revisiting $0.10 in a breakout session.
  • Elon Musk was behind the DOGE breakout, with Musk raising hopes of DOGE inclusion for Twitter 2.0 payments.
  • The technical indicators are mixed, with the DOGE EMAs signaling further price gains.

On Sunday, dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 10.67%. Reversing a 0.34% loss from Saturday, DOGE ended the week up 28.09% to $0.0985. Notably, DOGE revisited $0.10 for the first time since November 8.

A bullish morning saw DOGE rally from an early low of $0.0887 to a late morning high of $0.1079. DOGE broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0939 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0989. However, coming up against the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.1079, DOGE fell back to end the day at sub-$0.100.

Shiba inu coin (SHIB) rose by 2.89% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.85% loss from Saturday, SHIB ended the week up 5.58% to $0.00000927.

Tracking DOGE, SHIB rose from an early low of $0.00000899 to a late morning high of $0.00000962. SHIB broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000928 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00000956. However, a bearish end to the day saw SHIB fall back through the Resistance Levels to end the day at $0.00000927.

Elon Musk delivered a DOGE breakout session that provided SHIB with much-needed price support.

Musk posted a set of slides from a recent Twitter company talk on Sunday. A fourth slide, titled Payments, did not reveal which form of payments Twitter 2.0 will accept. However, investors took this as a cue for DOGE incorporation.

The latest tweet followed reports of Elon Musk planning to upgrade DOGE with the help of Vitalik Buterin.

However, the pair were on the defensive this morning. News of protests in China over COVID-19 lockdown measures weighed on riskier assets.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action

At the time of writing, DOGE was down 5.08% to $0.0935. A bearish start to the week saw DOGE rise to an early high of $0.0996 before sliding to a low of $0.0918.

DOGE on the slide.
DOGEUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

DOGE needs to move through the $0.0984 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.1080. A return to $0.10 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended afternoon breakout session, the bulls could take a run at $0.11 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.1176. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.1368.

Failure to move through the pivot ($0.0984) would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0888 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, DOGE should avoid sub-$0.0850 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0792.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0600.

DOGE support levels in play.
DOGEUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs sent a bullish signal, with DOGE sitting above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.0881. The 50-day EMA crossed through the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA. The price signals were bullish.

A hold above S1 ($0.0888) and the 50-day EMA ($0.0881) would support a run at R1 ($0.1080). However, a fall through S1 ($0.0888) and the EMAs would bring sub-$0.0800 and S2 ($0.0792) into view.

EMAs bullish.
DOGEUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action

At the time of writing, SHIB was down 4.75% to $0.00000883. A mixed start to the day saw SHIB rise to an early high of $0.00000936 before sliding to a low of $0.00000877.

SHIB fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000897.

SHIB in the red.
SHIBUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

SHIB needs to move through S1 and the $0.00000929 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000960 and the Sunday high of $0.00000962. A return to $0.00000950 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, SHIB will likely take its cues from the broader crypto market today.

In the case of an extended rally, SHIB would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00000992 and resistance at $0.0000100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.00001055.

Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would bring the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.00000866 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.00000850 and the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.00000803.

SHIB support levels in play.
SHIBUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.00000911. This morning, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through S1 ($0.00000888) and the 50-day EMA ($0.00000911) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($0.00000935) to target R1 ($0.00000960). However, failure to move through S1 and the 50-day EMA ($0.00000911) would leave S2 ($0.00000866) in view.

EMAs bearish.
SHIBUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Climbs to 28/100 Despite NASDAQ Pressure

Key Insights:

  • On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.15% to end another range-bound session at $16,435.
  • It was a quiet session, with no cues for investors until late into the session.
  • However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 26/100 to 28/100, consolidating the Sunday move into the Fear zone.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.15%. Following a 0.36% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the day at $16,435. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fifth consecutive day while extending the losing streak to four sessions.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,603. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642, BTC slid to a late low of $16,410. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,435.

With the US Thanksgiving holidays ending, there were no crypto news stories to provide direction. Trading volumes remained low, with investors likely taking a wait-and-see approach on FTX and further contagion.

However, investor sentiment towards FTX contagion has improved in recent sessions, which has prevented a return to sub-$16,000. Bets of a December Fed pivot have also been supportive, while regulatory risk will remain a crypto headwind.

This week, updates from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings will need monitoring. News of more assets to make creditors whole would be market positive.

Today, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index in the hands of Fed chatter. FOMC member Williams will speak today. Support for a 50-basis point rate hike would provide NASDAQ and BTC support.

However, the NASDAQ mini kicked off the week in negative territory (-83 points), with concerns over the new wave of COVID-19 cases in China influencing.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 281122 Daily Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Climbs Despite another BTC Loss

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 26/100 to 28/100. Significantly, the Index consolidated its return to the Fear zone, the first time since the collapse of FTX. The upside came despite BTC moving within a $193 range on Sunday.

BTC avoiding sub-$16,000 for a fifth consecutive session was likely a contributory factor. The latest Index move aligns with market chatter of a bottoming out, supported by subsiding FTX contagion risk.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run at $20,000.

Fear & Greed Index climbs higher.
Fear & Greed 281122

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.24% to $16,396. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,487 before falling to a low of $16,345.

BTC tested the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,362 early on.

BTC under pressure.
BTCUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,483 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,555 and the Sunday high of $16,603. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need the NASDAQ and friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,676. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $16,869.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,362 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. If BTC falls through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,290, the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $16,097 should limit the downside.

However, negative FTX-related news or a risk-off fueled sell-off would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

BTC support levels in play.
BTCUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,539. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,539) and R1 ($16,555) would support a move through R2 ($16,676) to target R3 ($16,867) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,539) would leave BTC under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

EUR/USD and a Return to $1.0450 in the Hands of ECB President Lagarde

It is a quiet start to the week for the EUR/USD on the economic calendar. There are no economic indicators from the Eurozone for investors to consider.

Following last week’s reaction to the private sector PMIs and business and consumer sentiment numbers, monetary policy will remain a focal point today.

Last Thursday, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes highlighted that “households were increasingly postponing major purchases and reducing their savings in order to maintain their consumption of basic necessities.”

Despite this, the ECB noted that there was still excess savings from the COVID-19 pandemic and, coupled with fiscal support and labor market conditions, should drive consumption.

Following the latest sentiment numbers, the markets will look for any shift in sentiment toward the economic outlook and monetary policy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak today. While ECB member commentary has delivered uncertainty toward the December policy move, Lagarde has maintained the need for further rate hikes to tackle high inflation. Clues on the likely size of the next move would influence the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.03% to $1.03819. A mixed start to the day saw the EUR/USD fall to an early low of $1.03655 before finding support.

EUR/USD holds steady.
EURUSD 281122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD needs to move through the $1.0390 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0425 and the Friday high of $1.04293. Risk-on sentiment and hawkish ECB member chatter would support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0464. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0539.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0350 in play. However, barring another sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.030. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0315 should limit the downside.

However, dovish ECB commentary could deliver a sharp pullback. The third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0240.

EUR/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
EURUSD 281122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bullish signal. The EUR/USD sits above the 50-day EMA ($1.03314). The 50-day EMA widened from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA moving away from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1.03314) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.0425) to target R2 ($1.0464) and $1.05. However, a fall through S1 ($1.0350) would bring the 50-day EMA ($1.03314) and S2 ($1.0315) into play. The 200-day EMA sits at $1.01209.

EMAs remain bullish.
EURUSD 281122 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a quiet start to the week, with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index numbers for November in focus. Barring a sharp decline, the numbers should have a muted impact on the dollar and the broader market.

However, we expect sensitivity to FOMC member chatter, with FOMC member Williams speaking today.

 

ETH Looks for a Return to $1,250 to Bring $1,300 into Play

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) had mixed fortunes on Saturday, with BTC extending its losing streak to three sessions.
  • Ethereum network updates continued to resonate as investors waited on news from FTX debtors and creditors.
  • After a mixed Saturday, it has been a bullish Sunday morning, with investor resilience strong despite lingering uncertainty.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.50% on Saturday. Reversing a 0.33% loss from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,205. ETH wrapped up the day at $1,200 for the second time in seven sessions.

After a bullish morning, ETH rose to an early afternoon high of $1,235. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,214 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,229. However, a bearish afternoon saw ETH fall to a late low of $1,196 before wrapping up the day at $1,205. ETH avoided the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,177.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.36%. Following a 0.52% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,460. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fourth consecutive session.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,697. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,639 before falling to a late low of $16,389. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,376, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,460.

Ethereum network updates resonated into the weekend, with ETH holding onto the $1,200 handle.

On Thursday, the Ethereum Foundation announced the next set of post-Merge and transition to PoS upgrades. Set to take place in H2 2023, a feature of the Shanghai hard fork will be the Beacon Chain Staked Ether (ETH). The hard fork will allow users with pre-Merge-staked ETH to access the tokens and rewards.

While the announcement was positive, the developers provided no timelines. Further updates on the Shanghai hard fork will provide ETH price movement.

For BTC and the broader market, returning investors from the Thanksgiving holidays could support a breakout afternoon session. This morning, the BTC Fear & Greed Index moved out of the Extreme Fear zone for the first time since the collapse of FTX.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.17% to $1,219. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,204 to a high of $1,223.

ETH on the move.
ETHUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,212 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,228 and the Saturday high of $1,235. An ETH return to $1,230 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to provide support.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,251. Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,290.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,189 into play. However, barring an extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,150. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,173 should limit the downside. The third Major Support Level sits at $1,134.

News of more crypto platforms freezing withdrawals would bring sub-$1,100 into play.

ETH resistance levels in play.
ETHUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,231. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA slipped back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A move through R1 ($1,228) and the 100-day EMA ($1,231) would support a run at R2 ($1,251). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($1,195) would leave ETH under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 271122 4 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.67% to $16,571. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,452 to a high of $16,603 before easing back.

BTC finds support.
BTCUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,515 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642 and the Saturday high of $16,697. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session. A lack of news could see BTC move within tight ranges.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,823 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,131.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,207 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could send BTC to sub-$16,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,899.

BTC resistance levels in play.
BTCUSD 271122 Houly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,545. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,545) would support a move through R1 ($16,642) to target R2 ($16,823) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,545) would leave S1 ($16,334) in play.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 271122 4 Hourly Chart

ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.320 Would Support a Run at $0.330

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, ADA ended the day flat, ending a two-day losing streak.
  • Network updates and founder Charles Hoskinson failed to deliver Saturday support.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

Following a 0.63% decline on Friday, ADA ended Saturday flat at $0.314. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the fourth consecutive session.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise to an early morning high of $0.322. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318. However, coming up short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323, ADA fell to a late low of $0.311. Avoiding the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.308, ADA bounced back to end the day at $0.314.

It was another quiet session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leading to a further decline in trading volumes. Despite falling volumes, network updates have prevented a price breakout. ADA fell short of $0.340 for a tenth consecutive session.

Founder Charles Hoskinson Addresses Ardana and Orbis Project News

In the wake of the FTX collapse, investors have become more sensitive to negative crypto news. This week, Ardana announced plans to halt its stablecoin development on the Cardano network. The Ardana announcement accompanied news of Orbis halting development.

On Friday, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson posted a video to clarify the reasons behind Ardana and Orbis halting their projects.

Hoskinson said,

“This was not a funding issue. This was not a platform issue. Looks like it was a leadership issue. Things happen, people sometimes don’t execute, people make mistakes, and usually, there’s something left behind for people to salvage from these situations. Good developers, good leaders, code something.”

Hoskinson went on to say,

“My hope is as the forensics work their way through that we as an ecosystem can discover what value if any has been produced.”

Despite the failings of Ardana and Orbis, Hoskinson continued to view a positive outlook for projects on the Cardano network.

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Cardano Weekly Development Update. According to the November 25 release, key stats include,

  • 106 projects launched on Cardano (up by two since November 12).
  • Projects building on Cardano totaled 1,146, up from 1,139 on November 12.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.32% to $0.315. A range-bound start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.316 before easing back.

ADA finds early support.
ADAUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to move through the $0.316 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.320. Avoiding sub-$0.315 and a return to $0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from the early high.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.327 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.338.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.309 in play. However, barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.305 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.294.

ADA support levels in play below the pivot.
ADAUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day, currently at $0.318. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.318) would support a move through R1 ($0.320) to target R2 ($0.327) and the 100-day EMA ($0.330). However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.309) in play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.350.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 271122 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Price Target Remains $0.45 as SEC v Ripple Court Date Approaches

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, XRP fell by 2.93%, ending a five-sessions winning streak.
  • There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to provide direction, leaving investors to lock in profits as November 30 approaches.
  • The technical indicators are less bearish, with XRP sitting above the 100-day EMA, signaling a possible return to sub-$0.45.

On Saturday, XRP fell by 2.93%. Reversing a 1.46% gain from Friday, XRP ended the day at $0.39604. Notably, XRP revisited $0.41 for the second consecutive session and the second time since the FTX collapse.

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.41365. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4213, XRP slid to a late low of $0.39277. However, finding late support, XRP revisited $0.3971 before easing back.

XRP bucked the broader market trend on Saturday. Investors likely locked in profits after five consecutive daily gains, with trading volumes sliding through the afternoon session.

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

November 30 Court Date the One to Watch for XRP Investors

While there were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to influence, the next Court date of November 30 is rapidly approaching.

On Wednesday, the parties must file summary judgment reply briefs. The public can access redacted versions on December 5. The reply briefs are significant as Ripple could use the filing to corner the SEC into a settlement.

William Hinman’s speech-related documents and the Amicus Briefs will likely be areas of interest. While the defendants have the documents in their possession, the SEC will want to prevent the public from accessing the Hinman documents.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

By way of history, the SEC failed to shield the Hinman speech-related documents on more than six occasions.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 0.90% to $0.39962. A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.39979 before easing back.

XRP finds early support.
XRPUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.4008 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4089 and the Saturday high of $0.41365. A return to $0.4050 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4217 and $0.43. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4426.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3880 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3850 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3799. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3591.

Unexpected updates on the SEC v Ripple case and from FTX debtors will need consideration, however.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a more bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.39103. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were bullish.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($0.40677) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4089) to bring R2 ($0.4217) and $0.43 into play. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($0.39103) would bring S1 ($0.3880) and the 50-day EMA ($0.38795) into view.

EMAs turning bullish.
XRPUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Breaks into the Fear Zone on BTC Movement

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.36% to end another range-bound session at $16,460.
  • There were no cues for investors, with the US Thanksgiving holidays sending crypto market volumes lower.
  • However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 22/100 to 26/100, returning to the Fear zone for the first time since the collapse of FTX.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.36%. Following a 0.52% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,460. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fourth consecutive session.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,697. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,639 before falling to a late low of $16,389. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,376, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,460.

There was no crypto news event to provide direction on Saturday, leaving BTC in a tight range. Trading volumes have fallen over the US Thanksgiving Holidays. Investors will also be holding out for updates from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings. News of more assets to make creditors whole would be BTC-positive.

Trading volumes fall.
CMC BTC Trading Volume 271122

Another quiet session would leave the NASDAQ mini to provide direction in the final hour of today’s session. A rise in the Fear & Greed Index suggests improved investor sentiment. However, downside risks remain, with the FTX contagion and regulatory risks being crypto headwinds.

For the broader market, the Binance pledge of $1 billion, interest in FTX crypto assets, and the $1.24 billion in FTX cash holdings will limit the damage on FTX creditors. However, the cascade effect could see other platforms face a different situation should liquidity dry up.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 271122 Daily Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Exits the Extreme Fear Zone

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 22/100 to 26/100. Significantly, the Index moved into the Fear zone for the first time since the collapse of FTX. The upside came despite BTC moving within a $308 range on Saturday.

BTC avoiding sub-$16,000 for a fourth consecutive session was likely a contributory factor. Debtor updates on FTX liquid assets, market interest in FTX assets, and a lack of news of more exchanges facing liquidity crises have been crypto-positive.

Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key near-term. The bulls will need to target the pre-FTX collapse high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run at $20,000.

BTC Fear & Greed Index exits the Extreme Fear zone.
Fear & Greed 271122

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.17% to $16,488. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,508 before easing back.

BTC finds early support.
BTCUSD 271122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $16,515 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642 and the Saturday high of $16,697. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session. A lack of news could see BTC move within tight ranges.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,823 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,131.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,207 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could send BTC to sub-$16,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,899.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 271122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,542. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,542) would support a move through R1 ($16,642) to target R2 ($16,823) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,542) would leave S1 ($16,334) in play.

BTC EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 271122 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – BNB Led a Top Ten Mixed Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten. BNB led the way, while XRP gave up some of Friday’s gains.
  • Trading volumes continued the downward trend during the US Thanksgiving holidays, leaving investors with little direction.
  • The crypto market cap rose by a modest $1.9 billion to end the day at $790.8 billion.

It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten. XRP led the way down while BNB enjoyed a breakout session. However, BTC had another range-bound session, moving within a $308 range. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a fourth consecutive session.

Trading volumes fall.
CMC Trading Volumes 271122

Trading volumes continued to fall over the Thanksgiving holidays, leaving the broader crypto market to move sideways. Adding to the lower volumes was likely investor wait-and-see sentiment before FTX updates hit the news on Monday.

In another quiet crypto session, there were no updates on FTX to provide direction nor cues from the NASDAQ Composite Index. However, uncertainty over the extent of the fallout from the FTX collapse continued to leave investors on the sidelines.

The crypto market remains at risk of another sharp decline in the event of an FTX-fueled crypto exchange collapse. However, FTX assets, including the $1.24 billion cash reserve, will cushion the blow, which has delivered BTC price support at $16,000.

After three quiet sessions, with the downward trend in trading volumes, the NASDAQ mini could reignite interest in the final hour of today’s session. The crypto market has recoupled with the NASDAQ Composite Index after the FTX-forced decoupling earlier in the month.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 271122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Moves Sideways Over Thanksgiving Holidays

It is a relatively choppy Saturday session. The crypto market rose to an early afternoon high of $807.6 billion before sliding to a late low of $784.5 billion.

However, finding late support, the crypto market wrapped up the day in positive territory, rising by $1.9 billion to end the session at $790.8 billion. The modest gain left the market down $181 billion for November.

Crypto market finds modest suppport.
Total Market Cap 271122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Saturday session for the crypto top ten.

BNB rallied by 3.53% to lead the way, with ETH (+0.51%) and MATIC (+0.20%) also finding support.

However, XRP led the way down, sliding by 2.93%, with BTC (-0.36%) and DOGE (-0.34%) ending the day in negative territory. ADA ended the day flat.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Apecoin (APE) led the way, rallying by 10.56%, with aptos (APT) and huobi token (HT) seeing gains of 7.45% and 6.67%, respectively.

However, binaryX (BNX) and GMX (GMX) ended the day with losses of 4.64% and 4.38%, respectively. Trust wallet token (TWT) fell by 3.95%.

24-Hour Liquidations Remained at Low Levels as Trading Volumes Fall

Over 24 hours, total liquidations slipped to lower levels amid lighter trading volumes. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $41.75 million versus $45.76 million on Saturday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also held steady. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,290 versus 15,477 on Saturday morning. However, liquidations were up over 12 and four hours while down over one hour.

Crypto liquidations fall.
Total Crypto Liquidations 271122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $16.36 million to $23.67 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $5.14 million to $6.96 million. One-hour liquidations fell from $2.27 million to $0.632 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market finds late support.
Total Market Cap 271122 Hourly Chart

DOGE Bulls Target $0.100 on Elon Musk and Vitalik Buterin Chatter

Key Insights:

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu coin (SHIB) bucked the broader market trend on Friday, with DOGE revisiting $0.0916 in a breakout session.
  • Elon Musk was behind the DOGE breakout, with reports of Musk planning to partner with Vitalik Buterin to upgrade DOGE the key driver.
  • The technical indicators are turning bullish, with the EMAs signaling further price gains.

On Friday, dogecoin (DOGE) rallied by 9.71%. Reversing a 0.49% loss from Thursday, DOGE ended the day at $0.0893. Notably, DOGE revisited $0.09 for the first time in nine sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw DOGE fall to an early low of $0.0806. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0799, DOGE rallied to a late morning high of $0.0916. DOGE broke through the day’s Major Resistance Levels before falling back through the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.0894 to end the day at $0.0893.

Shiba inu coin (SHIB) rose by 1.89% on Friday. Reversing a 0.44% loss from Thursday, SHIB ended the day at $0.00000918.

A bearish start to the day saw SHIB fall to an early morning low of $0.00000885. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000887, SHIB surged to a late morning high of $0.00000948. SHIB broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000917 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00000934.

However, SHIB slid back to sub-$0.00000910 before a late move back through R1 to end the day at $0.00000918.

While the US Thanksgiving holidays left crypto trading volumes lower, Dogecoin news delivered a breakout DOGE session.

On Friday, reports of Elon Musk planning to upgrade DOGE with the help of Vitalik Buterin delivered support. David Gokhshtein fueled speculation of a Mush-Buterin collaboration, saying,

“I feel that we’ll all see Vitalik and Elon working together to somehow upgrade DOGE.”

Gokhshtein went on to say,

“They won’t work on Bitcoin – well because Vitalik tried that in the past and was kicked and Elon is interested in turning something that started off as a joke into something serious.”

Momentum from Friday spilled over to today’s session, with DOGE and SHIB on the move.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action

At the time of writing, DOGE was up 5.04% to $0.0938. A bullish start to the day saw DOGE rise from an early low of $0.0890 to a high of $0.0955.

DOGE broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0937.

DOGE on the move.
DOGEUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

DOGE needs to avoid a fall through R1 and the $0.0872 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.0982. A return to $0.0940 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended afternoon breakout session, the bulls could take a run at $0.100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.1092.

A fall through R1 and the pivot ($0.0872) would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0827 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, DOGE should avoid sub-$0.0800 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0762. However, further signs of FTX contagion would bring sub-$0.0800 into view.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0652.

DOGE resistance levels in play.
DOGEUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs sent a bullish signal, with DOGE sitting above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.0862. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA. The price signals were bullish.

A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a breakout from R1 ($0.0937) to bring R2 ($0.0982) and $0.10 into play. However, a fall through the 200-day ($0.0862) and 100-day ($0.0859) EMAs would bring the 50-day EMA ($0.0834) into view.

EMAs turning bullish.
DOGEUSD 261122 4 Hourly Chart

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action

At the time of writing, SHIB was up 1.42% to $0.00000931. A bullish start to the day saw SHIB rise from an early low of $0.00000917 to a high of $0.00000937.

SHIB finds support.
SHIBUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

SHIB needs to avoid the $0.00000917 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000949. A return to $0.00000940 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, any further contagion news would test buyer appetite.

In the case of an extended rally, SHIB would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00000980 and resistance at $0.0000100. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.00001043.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000886 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.00000880 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.00000854.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.00000791.

SHIB resistance levels in play.
SHIBUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.00000939. This morning, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A move through the 100-day EMA ($0.00000939) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.00000949) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.00000980) and the 200-day EMA ($0.0000993). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.00000905) would bring S1 ($0.00000886) into view.

EMAs bearish.
SHIBUSD 261122 4 Hourly Chart

 

ADA Price Prediction: A Hold onto $0.320 Would Bring $0.330 into Play

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, ADA fell by 0.63% to end the day at $0.314.
  • Network updates failed to deliver price support, with ADA joining the broader market in the red.
  • The technical indicators remain bearish, with ADA sitting at the 50-day EMA, to leave sub-$0.300 in view.

On Friday, ADA fell by 0.63%. Following a 0.63% loss on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.314. Notably, ADA avoided sub-$0.300 for the third consecutive session.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA fall to an early morning low of $0.307. ADA fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.311. Finding mid-morning support, ADA rose to a late high of $0.317. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.321, ADA fell back to end the day in the red.

It was a quiet Friday session, with the US Thanksgiving Holiday leading to a slide in trading volumes. However, recent network updates have weighed on ADA, which fell short of $0.340 for a ninth consecutive session.

Input Output HK Weekly Development Update Fails to Impress

On Friday, Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Cardano Weekly Development Update. According to the November 25 release, key highlights include,

  • Ongoing work on core technology improvements.
  • Lace developments are progressing.
  • SECP implementation is in the final stages.
  • Hydra v.0.8.1 and Mithril 2246.1 distribution release.
  • Cardano improvement proposal for Voltaire released.

More importantly, statistics to date were as follows:

  • 106 projects launched on Cardano (up by two since November 12).
  • Projects building on Cardano totaled 1,146, up from 1,139 on November 12.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 55.3 million transactions, 6.9 million tokens, and 65,539 token policies.

The latest numbers showed that the influx of projects in response to the Vasil hard fork has yet to materialize.

Founder Charles Hoskinson was also vocal at the end of the week. Hoskinson responded to a tweet relating to building stablecoins on Cardano, saying,

“It reminds me of when Mark Karpeles blamed Bitcoin for MtGox.”

The tweet was in response to a tweet from Duo Nine, which said,

“Turns out building a stablecoin on #Cardano is not possible. Development on Cardano has been difficult […] the underlying network on #ADA is currently not ideal for any protocol dealing with liquidations […] best course of action is halting development.”

Duo Nine reacted to Ardana’s Wednesday decision to halt its stablecoin development on the Cardano network.

An ADA price headwind would be news of more projects halting project development.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.91% to $0.320. A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.314 to a high of $0.322.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.318.

ADA on the move.
ADAUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to hold above R1 and the $0.313 pivot to target the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323. Avoiding sub-$0.320 would signal a breakout session. Bullish crypto market sentiment would support a breakout from the early high.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.323 and $0.330 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.333.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.308 into play. However, barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.300. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.303 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.293.

ADA resistance levels in play.
ADAUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat at the 50-day, currently at $0.319. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($0.319) would support a move through R2 ($0.323) to target and the 100-day EMA ($0.332). However, failure to break out from the 50-day EMA would leave S1 ($0.308) in play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.353.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 261122 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Bulls Eye a Return to $0.4350 on Upbeat SEC v Ripple Sentiment

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, XRP extended its winning streak to five sessions.
  • As November 30 approaches, investor hopes of a settlement in the SEC v Ripple case delivered further support.
  • The technical indicators are turning more bullish, with XRP sitting at the 200-day EMA, signaling a possible return to sub-$0.45.

On Friday, XRP rose by 1.46%. Following a 5.38% rally from Thursday, XRP ended the day at $0.40798. Notably, XRP extended its winning streak to five sessions and wrapped up the day at $0.40 for the second time since November 8.

A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall to an early morning low of $0.38894. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3825, XRP rallied to a late morning high of $0.41838. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4121 before sliding back to sub-$0.40.

However, finding late support, XRP returned to $0.40 to wrap up the day in positive territory. XRP continued to outperform its top ten peers on Friday. While XRP was up 13.2% (Mon-Fri), BTC was up just 1.48%, and the crypto market cap by 3.25%.

XRP outperforms.
XRP – Crypto Market Decoupling

There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to influence as the next Court date of November 30 approaches.

SEC v Ripple Sentiment Delivers Further XRP Price Support

On Friday, XRP bucked the broader market trend. While there were no updates from the SEC v Ripple case, investor sentiment toward the prospects of a settlement continued to deliver price support.

Mindful that there are unlikely to be any material Court updates until November 30, expectations are that the SEC will need to settle. The William Hinman speech-related documents sit in the hands of the defendants. With the SEC wanting to shield the content from the public, plans to use the content in Court could make the SEC nervous.

In a famous 2018 speech, Division of Corporation Finance, William Hinman, said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities.

Following failed attempts to shield the speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege, the Court ordered the SEC to hand the documents over to the defendants in late October.

All of this makes the November 30 summary judgment reply brief filings all the more influential. The market consensus is that if Ripple plans to use the documents in Court, then the SEC may agree to settle.

The public will have access to redacted versions of the summary judgment reply briefs on December 5.

For XRP holders and the defendants, the Amicus Brief filings are another consideration. However, it will boil down to how much weight the Court gives the filings should the SEC allow the case to progress to Court.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 0.48% to $0.40601. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.40850 before falling to a low of $0.40352.

XRP on the back foot.
XRPUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4051 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4213. A return to the Friday high of $0.41838 would signal another breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4345 and $0.45. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4640.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3918 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3850 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3757. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3462.

Unexpected updates on the SEC v Ripple case and from FTX debtors will need consideration, however.

XRP resistance levels in play above the pivot.
XRPUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a more bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat at the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.40709. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The signals were bullish.

A breakout from the 200-day EMA ($0.40709) would support a move through R1 ($0.4213) to bring R2 ($0.4345) into play. However, a fall through S1 ($0.3918) would give the bears a run at the 100-day EMA ($0.38969) and the 50-day EMA ($0.38430).

EMAs turning bullish.
XRPUSD 261122 4 Hourly Chart

BTC Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher Despite the NASDAQ Effect

Key Insights:

  • On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.52% to end a range-bound session at $16,519.
  • The NASDAQ Composite Index left BTC in the red for the session while BTC avoided a return to sub-$16,000.
  • However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 20/100 to 22/100, reflecting a modest improvement in investor sentiment over the holidays.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.52%. Following a 0.04% decline on Thursday, BTC ended the day at $16,519. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the third consecutive session.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $16,617 to a mid-morning low of $16,354. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,445. However, finding mid-morning support, BTC revisited $16,600 before falling back into the red.

It was another quiet session, with the US Thanksgiving Holidays sending trading volumes lower. A lack of news updates from the ongoing FTX saga left the NASDAQ Composite Index to influence, which fell by 0.52% in a shortened holiday session.

Volumes fall.
CMC BTC Trading Volume 261122

Despite the quiet session, the range-bound session suggested a further fall in FTX contagion risk, cushioning a BTC return to sub-$16,000. News of sizeable asset discoveries and the Binance recovery fund softened the blow from the FTX collapse.

On Thursday, Binance CEO CZ pledged $1 billion for FTX-impacted crypto firms. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, CZ also said that Binance would make another bid for Voyager Digital.

Today, investors will need to monitor the crypto news wires for updates on FTX and other crypto events that could influence investor sentiment.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 261122 5 Minute Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher as BTC Moves Sideways

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 20/100 to 22/100. Another range-bound BTC session supported a pickup in investor sentiment. BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for a third consecutive session, raising hopes of a bottoming out.

Market angst over the collapse of FTX has eased, leaving the crypto market in a tight range. However, contagion risk and regulatory uncertainty continue to peg BTC back from a return to $17,000 and an Index move into the Fear zone.

Until there is clarity on the total impact of the FTX collapse on the crypto market, we expect the Index to hover within the Extreme Fear zone.

While sitting at 20/100, avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key for the bulls. A fall to sub-20/100 would see BTC face the risk of sub-$10,000.

Fear & Greed Index avoids sub-20.
Fear & Greed 261122

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was flat at $16,519. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,527 before easing back.

BTC flat.
BTCUSD 261122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,497 pivot to target the Friday high of $16,617 and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,639. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,760 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,023.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,376 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,234 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could send BTC to sub-$15,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,971.

BTC resistance levels in play.
BTCUSD 261122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,544. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,544) would support a move through R1 ($16,639) to target R2 ($16,760) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,544) would leave S1 ($16,376) in play.

EMAs remain bearish.
BTCUSD 261122 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and XRP Buck the Top Ten Trend

Key Insights:

  • It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE leads the way, with XRP also bucking the broader market trend.
  • A quiet crypto session, with a sharp decline in trading volume over Thanksgiving, left the NASDAQ Composite Index to weigh on sentiment.
  • The crypto market cap is down by a modest $2.8 billion to $789.1 billion, with 45 minutes of the session left.

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE leads the way, with XRP also finding support. However, BTC joined the broader market in the red while avoiding sub-$16,000 for the third consecutive session.

With the US Thanksgiving holiday, it was a quiet Friday session, with trading volumes down through the afternoon session.

Graphical user interface, chart, histogram Description automatically generated There were no material updates on FTX to provide direction, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index to test buyer appetite. In a shortened holiday session, the NASDAQ fell by 0.52%. Disappointing Black Friday updates and concerns over the fresh wave of COVID-19 cases in China weighed.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 261122 5 Minute Chart

While FTX contagion eased this week, investors need to wait for updates from FTX debtors. News of new asset discoveries would further reduce FTX contagion risk. However, contagion risk will remain over the near term, which will likely continue to peg the market back from a full recovery.

Investors await the identities of FTX’s creditors, which the Court agreed to redact this week.

Today, the crypto news wires will remain the investor focal point.

Crypto Market Set to End Three-Day Winning Streak on Thin Trading

It is a bearish Friday session. The crypto market slid to a mid-morning low of $776.6 billion before rebounding to a high of $798.5 billion.

However, easing back through the afternoon session, the crypto market is down $2.8 billion to $789.1 billion, with 45 minutes remaining. The market is down $182 billion for November.

Crypto market in the red.
Total Market Cap 261122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It is a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE leads the way, rallying by 9.83%, with XRP up by 1.85%.

However, the rest of the top ten are in the red, with 45 minutes (UTC) of the session remaining.

ADA (-0.32%), BTC (-0.43%), ETH (-0.28%), and MATIC (-0.81%) are heading for daily losses. BNB is currently flat for the session.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it is a mixed session.

Huobi token (HT) leads the way, gaining 17.6%, with DOGE and casper (CSPR) up by 9.83% and 3.7%, respectively.

However, binaryX (BNX) leads the way down, falling by 8.31%, with UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and kava (KAVA) down by 8.49% and 5.69%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Hold Steady as Thanksgiving Lull Continues

Over 24 hours, total liquidations held steady on Friday amid lower trading volumes. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $45.76 million versus $43.88 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also held steady. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 15,477 versus 15,589 on Friday morning. However, liquidations were up over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations hold steady.
Total Crypto Liquidations 261122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $15.10 million to $16.36 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $1.33 million to $5.14 million. One-hour liquidations were up from $2.27 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market range-bound in the US session.
Total Market Cap 261122 Hourly Chart

USD/JPY Weekly Forecast – US Dollar Tests Major Trend Line

USD/JPY Forecast Video for 28.11.22

US Dollar vs Japanese Yen Weekly Technical Analysis

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, testing a major trend line. It’s interesting that we could not break down below it, and it’s a lot to try to read the action of Thursday and Friday, due to the fact that it was Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday, and Friday is typically a day that most people don’t go back to work. It is because of this that the somewhat neutral candlestick tells me exactly what is going through the minds of the market right now.

On one hand, if we can take out the top of the candlestick, that would be a very bullish sign. That would involve taking out the ¥142.50 level. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the ¥137.50 level, it will almost certainly fall to the ¥135 level, and anything below there would be below the 200-Day EMA on the daily chart, sending a lot of selling pressure into this market.

Obviously, this is a market that has been overbought for a while, so a lot of the shaky behavior that we had seen recently is actually good for this market, because people became far too complacent. In that scenario, we may have shaken out all of the “weak hands”, and therefore we will have to see what the bigger money traders do. Keep in mind that this Friday features the jobs report coming out of the United States, which will almost certainly have an influence on what happens next, as the next data point is going to be all about the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement in December.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.