The Dollar/Yen lost ground on Friday as concerns about a surge in coronavirus infections in the United States and elsewhere supported the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
Investors were reacting to the news that more than 60,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported across the United States on Thursday, the largest single-day tally by any country in the global pandemic so far, discouraging some American consumers from returning to public spaces.
On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 106.92, down 0.29 or -0.27%.
The dollar also weakened after U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in June, following a 0.4% rebound in May, as the economy battles depressed demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 107.790 will change the main trend to up. The next downside target is the June 23 main bottom at 106.074.
The USD/JPY is down seven sessions from its July 1 main top at 108.163, which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.
The short-term range is 106.074 to 108.163. The USD/JPY settled inside its retracement zone at 107.119 to 106.872 on Friday, which suggests it can move in either direction on Monday.
The USD/JPY also closed inside the longer-term retracement zone at 106.706 to 108.008 after briefly piercing the bottom of this range on Friday.
The Dollar/Yen finally broke out of its narrow trading range last week despite the recent two-sided shifts in investor sentiment.
According to Monex, the one-month implied and historical volatility closed at a record low, indicating that the options markets are signaling investor concerns about a future outbreak in volatility.
Our daily chart indicates that 106.706 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 106.074 to 105.987 the next likely downside targets.
The New Zealand Dollar finished slightly better on Friday after recovering from an early session setback. Initially, the Kiwi was driven lower by increased demand for the safe-haven greenback as investors responded to renewed concerns about the surge in coronavirus infections in the United States and around the world.
The currency rebounded, however, as the U.S. Dollar lost its safe-haven allure on hopes of a potential vaccine for the novel coronavirus. That news helped drive up demand for higher-risk assets while pushing the U.S. Dollar lower.
On Friday, the NZD/USD settled at .6571, up 0.0002 or +0.03%.
The story that shifted sentiment on Friday was the news that Gilead Sciences said additional data from a late-stage study showed its antiviral remdesivir reduced the risk of death and significantly improved the conditions of severely ill COVID-19 patients.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, the closing price reversal top at .6600 on July 9 suggests that momentum could shift to the downside. A trade through .6600 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down if sellers take out the nearest swing bottom at .6385.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6519 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.
The short-term range is .6381 to .6600. If the minor trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .6490 to .6465 will become the primary target zone.
Demand for risk is likely to continue to set the tone. Risk sentiment will be lifted if scientists continue to make progress toward a coronavirus vaccine, However, investors will continue to weight this evidence against the rapid-rising cases of coronavirus around the world.
On the upside, taking out .6600 should lead to a test of the January 24 main top at .6629. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside since the next major target is way up at .6756.
On the downside, a pullback to .6490 to .6465 will represent a normal correction. However, longs will start getting nervous if .6465 fails as support.
The Australian Dollar finished lower on Friday despite a surge in demand for higher-risk assets. The Aussie finished well off its low, however, after the U.S. Dollar weakened.
Driving the price action on Friday were hopes of a potential vaccine for the novel coronavirus after Gilead Sciences Inc said additional data from a late-state study showed its antiviral remdesivir reduced the risk of death and significantly improved the conditions of severely ill COVID-19 patients.
That news helped push U.S. equities higher while dampening the appeal of the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven asset.
On Friday, the AUD/USD settled at .6948, down 0.0016 or -0.23%.
Gains were likely limited as sentiment for the Aussie continued to take a hit after coronavirus lockdown measures were reimposed in Australia’s second biggest city of Melbourne on Tuesday.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the downside on July 9 with the formation of a closing price reversal top. A trade through .7001 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at .6833.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6922 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.
The first short-term range is .7065 to .6777. Its 50% level at .6921 is potential support.
The second short-term range is .6777 to .7001. Its 50% support level comes in at .6889.
The next major move in the AUD/USD will be determined by how investors handle the two 50% levels at .6921 and .6889.
The bullish tone is likely to remain intact if buyers can hold above .6921. A bearish tone is likely to develop if the selling is strong enough to take out the 50% level at .6889.
Natural gas prices rebounded to close in the black after hitting new lows for the week. Demand could be mixed as the reclosing of some states in the US will ease demand and this will be offset by warmer normal weather which should buoy cooling demand. The only tropical cyclone activity is tropical storm Faye which is rising the east coast but is unlikely to generate any damage to natural gas infrastructure. The number of active rigs declined by 4 this week, with natural gas account for 2 and oil accounting for a decline of 2. Natural gas is one of the main sources of energy in the United States in 2019 according to the EIA.
Natural gas prices reversed its downward trajectory and rose for the session bouncing off support near the 10-day moving average at 1.77. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.90. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum also remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the black with a slowing trajectory which points to consolidation.
Production and Consumption in 2020 Hit Record in the US
In 2019, U.S. production of natural gas increased to almost 34 trillion cubic feet and consumption increased to 31 Tcf, both values were records. The magnitude of U.S. natural gas supply production, imports, and withdrawals from storage and disposition consumption, exports, and additions to storage were records in 2019.
Gold prices moved lower consolidating for the second consecutive session after hitting a fresh 8-year high on Wednesday. For the week gold prices where higher by 1.25%. The dollar moved lower on Friday following a softer than expected US PPI report. The 10-year US treasury yield dropped sharply declining below 57% but rebounded later in the session to close above 62-basis points. Fear that COVID continues to spread through the United States, is weighing on future growth prospects and deteriorating inflation.
Trade gold with FXTM
Gold prices consolidated on Friday after hitting fresh 8-year highs on Wednesday. Prices are now poised to test target resistance near the August 2011 highs at $1,921. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,786 and additional support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,738. Short term momentum has turned negative. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 80, down from 89 on and is just above the overbought trigger level of 80 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black but the upward movement is decelerating which points to consolidation.
US PPI Unexpectedly Declines
The US producer price index (PPI) dropped 0.2% last month after rebounding 0.4% in May. Year over year through the 12-months ending June, the PPI declined 0.8%, matching May’s decrease. Expectations were for a 0.4% rise in June and a 0.2% fall in May. Excluding the volatile food, energy producers’ prices rose by 0.3% in June. The core PPI dropped 0.4% on a year-on-year basis in May, which was the largest annual decrease since 2013.
September E-mini NASDAQ-100 index futures hit an all-time high shortly after the mid-session on Friday. The mostly technology stock index is gaining support on two fronts. Some investors are buying because they believe in a V-shaped recovery, and other buyers are betting on stocks that will benefit from another prolonged lockdown. It seems when there is a slowdown in the buying, it is in reaction to positive news about a COVID-19 vaccine.
The latter occurred earlier in the session on Friday after Gilead Sciences said its coronavirus treatment candidate, remdesivir, “was associated with an improvement in clinical recovery and a 62 percent reduction in the risk of mortality compared with standard of care.” The ness sent Gilead shares up more than 1%. The rally in the index slowed on news as some investors decided to cash in.
Investors this week have flocked into mega-cap tech names such as Amazon, Microsoft,Netflix and Apple amid fears this latest resurgence in coronavirus could lead to people staying home for longer. All four of these stocks are trading at, or near all-time highs. They are also up at least 3.9% each week to date.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed by today’s higher-high. The main trend will change to down on a move through 9728.75.
A change in trend is unlikely at this time, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, we have to keep watching for a closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend to down, but it will be one of the earlier indications that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 10505.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.
Based on the current upswing of 9728.75 to 10776.75, the nearest support is its retracement zone at 10252.75 to 10129.00.
The key level to watch into the close on Friday is 10727.50. A close below this level will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed next week, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction into at least 10252.75.
September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher at the mid-session. After drifting lower earlier in the session, the blue chip average turned around as bank stocks jumped. Later in the session, the Dow popped even higher as investors cheered positive coronavirus treatment and vaccine news from Gilead Sciences and BioNTech.
Dow Components JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs rose between 2.7% and 3.4% ahead of their financial results next week, which would mark the onset of the second-quarter earnings season.
In other news, JPMorgan said on Friday that Disney parks reopening “removes the largest overhang at the company due to COVID-19.”
“We remain overweight and have increasing conviction that the health of the company is returning throughout several of its segments, with a move toward profitability in F23 at Disney+, the reopening of the parks, and the return of live sports,” analyst Alexia Quadrani wrote. The firm kept its price target at $135. Shares are up 1.46% in midday trading.
Finally, another bright spot was data showing Gilead’s antiviral remdesivir significantly improved clinical recovery and reduced the risk of death in COVID-19 patients in a late-stage study. Gilead’s shares rose 2.5%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on July 7.
The main trend will change to down on a trade through 24409. A move through 26280 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The minor trend is down. It changed to down when sellers took out 25438. This confirms the shift in momentum to down.
The minor range is 24743 to 26280. Its 50% level at 25512 is new support.
The short-term range is 27466 to 24409. Its retracement zone at 25938 to 26298 is potential resistance. This zone stopped the rally at 26280 on July 7.
The main range is 22640 to 27466. Its retracement zone at 25053 to 24484 is the major support.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
We’re going to be watching a minor pivot at 25787 into the close on Friday.
A sustained move over 25787 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum into the close, then look for a move into the retracement zone at 25938. Once inside this zone, investors will have to decide whether or not to turn the Dow higher for the week.
A sustained move under 25787 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the 50% level at 25512. If this fails, then look for the selling to possibly extend into the intraday low at 25293.
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Friday after overcoming earlier weakness. The early price action was choppy until a surge in financial stocks drove the broad-based index sharply higher. Gains may have been limited by worries over the jump in coronavirus cases.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3184.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend after a two-day setback.
The market may still be feeling a slight shift in momentum to the downside following Tuesday’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top, but that chart pattern will also be negated by a trade through 3184.00.
The minor trend is down. A trade through 3105.25 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. A move through 3170.75 will change the minor trend to up.
The minor range is 3184.00 to 3105.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 3144.50 is controlling the direction on Friday.
The short-term range is 3220.50 to 2923.75. Its retracement zone at 3107.00 to 3072.00 is support.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at 3154.50, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3144.50.
A sustained move over 3144.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the minor top at 3170.75. Overtaking this level could lead to a retest of the main top at 3184.00.
A sustained move under 3144.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a pullback into the Fibonacci level at 3107.00, followed by the minor bottom at 3105.25. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the 50% level at 3072.00.
The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading week, reaching towards the 3200 level. We have not been able to reach that level yet though, and I do think that it is an area that is begging for a retest. Because of this, I think that you continue to look at dips in the S&P 500 as a potential buying opportunity. Keep in mind that the earnings season is about the start, so we could get some type of jolt to the market.
Nonetheless, I believe that it is only a matter of time before the market recovers. Even if we do break down from here, there is a massive amount of support around the 3000 level, so I think it is imperative that you pay attention to the possibility of the 50 week EMA offering support and value hunters coming in to pick up the S&P 500 at that point.
S&P 500 Video 13.07.20
If we somehow break above the 3200 level, then it is likely that we will then continue the uptrend, reaching towards the gap near the 3350 level, and then possibly the all-time highs near the 3400 level. I think we are certainly going to try to do that based upon Federal Reserve liquidity, so at this point in time I still think this is a bit of a “buy on the dips” scenario, regardless of the fact that the economy is a completely different story. When you are looking at the stock market, you can see this is all about the Federal Reserve.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market had a choppy week, but ultimately settled on reasonable bullish intent on Friday as the daily candlestick ended up forming a bit of a hammer. That of course is a good sign, as we have tested the same resistance above more than once. This looks like a market that is hell-bent on trying to break out, as there is a confluence of resistance above, but oil simply will not give up with that in mind, I think it is a good sign for not only this market, but for the Brent market as it has further to go.
WTI Oil Video 13.07.20
Brent markets have rallied on Friday to finish out the week strong, as it looks like we are trying to reach the top of the gap yet again. If that is going to be the case, then it is likely that the market will see a lot of noisy trading in general. At the very least, I would anticipate that the Brent market will try to fill the gap, but we could even go further depending on what happens with the US dollar. In the short term I think it is easier to buy dips than anything else, but I would not be looking for “homeruns” at this point. After all, there are plenty of headlines out there that could suggest less demand going forward, so this is not necessarily going to be the easiest of trades. That being said, it is obvious that the buyers continue to step in.
The S&P 500 initially fell during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so, the market continues to see a certain amount of bullish pressure and I think that the resiliency of the S&P 500 is something that should be paid close attention to. After all, when the stock market or any other market for that matter simply refuses to fall, you should be listening. I think there is a significant amount of resistance near the 3200 level, but ultimately, I think that the market does break through there. We will continue to see short-term pullbacks that offer buying opportunities time and time again.
S&P 500 Video 13.07.20
The S&P 500 forming a couple of hammers in a row is a strong sign but as I said there are massive amounts of sell orders above and therefore, I think it is going to take quite a bit of effort. If we do eventually break through there, then the market could go looking towards the 3400 level again. Ultimately, I do think that this market does have the momentum to do so but with the earnings season coming out rather soon, I think we may get the occasional pullback that offers value. I have no interest in shorting this market, because quite frankly this is a market that I think continues to attract a lot of money due to the Federal Reserve liquefying the markets. Quite frankly, I keep hearing a lot of “There is no alternative” by pundits, and at this point I would have to agree.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so we ended up forming a massive hammer which of course is a good sign, suggesting that there are plenty of buyers looking to step in and pick this market up as it falls. By showing this, it tells us that the 200 day EMA will be tested yet again. That makes quite a bit of sense considering that the Brent market still has to play a bit of catch-up and the two markets do tend to move in the same general direction.
Crude Oil Video 13.07.20
Brent markets have also pulled back only to turn around and form a hammer as well. However, the Brent market has not filled the gap yet, so I think we have further to go in this market. That might be done due to economic conditions improving, or for that matter it might just be the US dollar losing some value. After all, the US dollar has been hammered by several currencies, so it is possible that Federal Reserve easing will continue to devalue that currency in general.
The 50 day EMA underneath is at the bottom of the gap, while the 200 day EMA is at the top, so I think it makes sense that we simply bang around in this general vicinity, perhaps with a little bit more of an upward bias than anything else.
Silver markets broke higher during the week, clearing the $19.00 level finally. This is an area that has been extraordinarily difficult to overcome, so it is not a huge surprise that we would see a little bit of a breather being taken into the weekend. Having said that, if you look at the two previous weekly candlesticks, we had formed a hammer followed by a shooting star. If you remember, I said this normally dictates that we are seen a bit of a range be informed. When she break out of that range of those two candlesticks, then in theory should continue going higher. So far that has been exactly what happened. I fully anticipate that silver will go looking towards the $20 level, but it does not necessarily mean that is going to be easy.
SILVER Video 13.07.20
Everything being said, a test of the $20 level seems somewhat inevitable, but one has to be cautious about trying to get too cute with this, because silver does tend to be very volatile and if you are trading the futures contract, it can be quite expensive. However, if you have the ability to trade smaller contracts, perhaps in the CFD market, then it is a little easier to hang on through all of the volatility. Regardless of what market you are trading though, selling simply is not an option as you will probably get run over. Keeping that in mind, I believe that the market is probably going to continue seeing a lot of chop, but most certainly in the upward direction.
Better-Than-Expected Employment Change Report Provides Additional Support To The Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD tried to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3590 but reversed course after the U.S. dollar started to show weakness against the broad basket of currencies while oil rebounded closer to the $40 level.
The U.S. Dollar Index did not manage to settle below the nearest resistance at 97 and declined to 96.5 after Gilead Sciences revealed positive results of late-stage study on remdesivir which is tested against coronavirus.
Meanwhile, oil failed to gain downside momentum and returned back to recent levels, providing support to commodity-related currencies like the Canadian dollar.
Canada has just reported employment data for June. Employment Change report showed that the economy added 952,900 jobs in June as businesses reopened and hired workers. Analysts expected that the economy will add 700,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, Unemployment Rate decreased from 13.7% in May to 12.3% in June compared to analyst consensus of 12%.
Interestingly, the Employment Change report was better than expected while Unemployment Rate missed analysts’ expectations.
This phenomenon is explained by the increase in Participation Rate which grew from 61.4% in May to 63.8% in June.
A combination of better-than-expected Employment Change report, rising oil prices and renewed optimism about the potential drug against coronavirus provided material support to the Canadian dollar and forced USD/CAD back into the previous trading range between the support at 1.3500 and the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.3590.
As I mentioned above, USD to CAD is back to the 1.3500 – 1.3590 trading range. However, it maintains chances to settle above the 20 EMA and develop upside momentum.
In this case, USD to CAD will head towards the next resistance level at the 50 EMA at 1.3660. A successful test of this level will open the way to another major resistance level at 1.3730. The previous serious attempt to develop upside momentum was stopped at this level.
Nothing has changed on the support side for quite some time – the main support level is located at 1.3500, and a move below this level will likely lead to a sell-off which will quickly take USD to CAD to the next support level at 1.3440.
Natural gas markets have rallied during most of the week, giving up a little bit of the gains closer to the $1.90 level. However, this has been a rather impressive move I think it is only a matter of time before we see some type of pullback in order to build up the necessary momentum. I think that the $2.00 level will be a significant barrier based upon the fact that it is where we see both the 50 week EMA and the 200 day EMA.
However, I think it is likely that we will see quite a bit of noise in the process. Right now, it looks as if the $1.50 level is going to be a massive support level as we have formed a bit of a “double bottom” as of late. Furthermore, when you look into the past, the $1.50 level has been crucial more than once. With that in mind I like the idea of using it as a bit of a “floor” in the market.
NATGAS Video 13.07.20
Higher temperatures in the United States are helping propel natural gas prices higher, but of course we are also seeing quite a bit of bankruptcies when it comes to drillers and suppliers, as the pricing power of natural gas has been all but decimated. Ultimately, I think that is going to continue to be the story here, as the market gets flushed out and we start to see the stronger players take control again. Short-term rally to the $2.00 level makes sense, possibly even as high as $2.50 before seen selling again.
Gold markets have rallied during the bulk of the week, showing signs of strength as we continue to grind higher. There are plenty of geopolitical reasons to think that gold will go even higher, not the least of which will be tension between the United States and China. Pullbacks at this point should be thought of as potential buying opportunities as the market has been rather bullish for some time, especially as central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy.
That is typically exceptionally good for gold, and we have seen that well-known trade play out yet again. I think at this point it is likely that pullbacks all the way to at least the $1750 level should find plenty of buyers, so what I will be doing is looking for support of daily candlestick that I can take advantage of and start buying in the direction of the longer-term weekly candlesticks.
Gold Price Predictions Video 13.07.20
Longer-term I anticipate that this market probably goes looking towards the $2000 level above, something that will attract a lot of attention as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but at the end of the day it would make sense to see the markets pull back from that $2000 level, which I think would be a major target for most traders. However, some analysts and pundits are starting to talk about $3000 an ounce as well. If that is going to be the case, then it is highly likely we will see quite noisy trading in general to the upside, so I look at dips as buying opportunities.
Silver markets did very little during the trading session on Friday after forming a shooting star on Thursday. While this might be construed as a potential issue, the reality is that the markets are simply exhausted as it took a lot of effort to break through the $19 level finally. As we head into the weekend, it makes quite a bit of sense that traders may be on the sidelines in order to keep the books flat to avoid potential headline risk.
SILVER Video 13.07.20
Importantly for silver, it does have an industrial component so it is worth paying attention to. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will have a lot of noise involved in it, so at this point one would have to think that we are going to see a bit of a lag in the silver market when compared to gold. They are both moving on the precious metals trade though, as central banks around the world continue to show the proclivity to ease monetary policy regardless. With that being the case, I think that silver does rally but if you are looking to play the precious metals trade you are probably better off looking at the gold market for a bit of alpha.
To the downside I see plenty of support areas, namely the $18.70 level, the $18.56 level, and most certainly the $18.00 level. The 50 day EMA is reaching higher and it does look as if we are trying to complete the move to $20.
Natural gas markets have initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday, dipping below the 50 day EMA. By breaking down below there and turning around, it shows a certain amount of resiliency in this market. I think it is only a matter of time before we continue to see buyers jump in and push towards the $1.90 level again. Above there, we also have the $2.00 level, an area that has a certain amount of psychological importance built into it. Beyond that, we also have the 200 day EMA sitting at the $2.00 level so I think it is only a matter of time before that would come into play to cause issues.
NATGAS Video 13.07.20
To the downside I see a lot of support at various levels. The 1.50 level has essentially been a floor in the market for quite some time, well before the last couple of months. It is a long-term inflection point, and those typically stick with the market for some time. Pullbacks at this point should be buying opportunities, with the $1.70 level offering a significant amount of support as well. I think we are going to grind higher due to higher temperatures in the United States and a whole slew of bankruptcies in this industry, which should in theory drive down supply, allowing for the market to rise as far as price is concerned. This does not mean that is going to be easy, but in the short term it looks like we are trying to get to the $2.00 level.
Gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday as it looks like we have run out of steam going into the weekend. Quite frankly, this should not be a huge surprise considering that the market had finally pierced the $1800 level during the day. The $1800 level is an area that has attracted a lot of attention in general, so do not be surprised at all to see market participants take a little bit of profit. That being said though, there are a million reasons for gold to go higher, not the least of which of course will be central banks out there looking likely to continue loosening monetary policy. That of course helps the value of gold as fiat currency gets devalued.
Gold Price Predictions Video 13.07.20
Beyond that, there are concerns about the geopolitical risks out there, as the tensions between the United States and China continue to flare up. With that being the case I like the idea of buying dips, and I think that the 50 day EMA which is rapidly approaching the $1750 level is likely to offer a lot of support. A bounce from that area would be preferable, on a pullback that offers value. On the other hand, we could simply break above the highs of the Friday candlestick which would also be a buying opportunity in this type of environment. All things being equal, I think that the market stays in an uptrend and eventually goes looking towards the $2000 level, although it does not necessarily have to do it right away.