Dogecoin – Daily Tech Analysis – September 21st, 2021

Dogecoin

Dogecoin slid by 10.43% on Monday. Following a 3.48% loss on Sunday, Dogecoin ended the day at $0.2087.

A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $0.2335 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2394, Dogecoin slid to a mid-day intraday low $0.1990.

Dogecoin fell through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

Through the early afternoon, Dogecoin broke back through the third major support level at $0.2137 before ending the day at sub-$0.21 levels.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down by 2.43% to $0.2037. A mixed start to the day saw Dogecoin rise to an early morning high $0.2087 before falling to a low $0.1988.

Dogecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

DOGEUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Dogecoin would need to move through the $0.2137 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2285 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Dogecoin to break back through the first major support level to $0.22 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Dogecoin could test resistance at $0.25 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.2482.

Failure to move through $0.2137 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.1940 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Dogecoin should avoid sub-$0.18 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.1792.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.1940

Pivot Level: $0.2137

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2285

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3016

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3859

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5221

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

EOS, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – September 21st, 2021

EOS

EOS tumbled by 14.58% on Monday. Following a 10.23% slump on Sunday, EOS ended the day at $4.1976.

A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning intraday high $4.9318 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $5.326, EOS slid to a mid-day intraday low $4.0828.

The reversal saw EOS fall through the first major support level at $4.6805 and the second major support level at $4.4471 to end the day at sub-$4.20 levels.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 4.99% to $3.9881. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $4.2037 before falling to a low $3.8415.

EOS tested the first major support level at $3.8763 early on.

EOSUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move through the $4.4041 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $4.7253 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed to break out from $4.50 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance and Monday’s high $4.9318 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, EOS could test the second major resistance level at $5.2531 before any pullback.

Failure to move through the $4.4041 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.8763 back into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, EOS should steer clear of sub-$3.50 levels. The second major support level at $3.5551 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.8763

First Major resistance Level: $4.7253

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.52

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.68

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.77

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen slid by 9.98% on Monday. Following a 2.73% fall on Sunday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.2822.

A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning intraday high $0.3147 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3162, Stellar’s Lumen fell to a mid-day intraday low $0.2708.

Stellar’s Lumen fell through the day’s major support levels.

Finding late support, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.28 levels.

Late in the day, the third major support level at $0.2874 pegged Stellar’s Lumen back, however.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 3.55% to $0.2722. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.2824 before falling to a low $0.2700.

Stellar’s Lumen left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XLMUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through the $0.2892 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $0.3077 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.30 levels.

Barring an extended rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Stellar’s Lumen could test resistance at $0.32 levels. The second major resistance level sits at $0.3331.

Failure to move through the $0.2892 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2638 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Stellar’s Lumen should steer clear of sub-$0.25 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2453.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2638

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3077

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4277

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5690

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX tumbled by 11.50% on Monday. Following a 2.17% loss on Sunday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.09160.

A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning intraday high $0.1041 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.1066, Tron’s TRX fell to a mid-day intraday low $0.08929.

The sell-off saw Tron’s TRX fall through the day’s major support levels.

More significantly, Tron’s TRX also fell through the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890 to end the day at $0.091 levels.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 4.13% to $0.08782. A mixed start to the day saw Tron’s TRX rise to an early morning high $0.09160 before falling to a low $0.08648.

Tron’s TRX left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

TRXUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through the $0.09500 pivot to bring the 38.2% FIB of $0.09890 and the first major resistance level at $0.1007 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.10 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $0.1041 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Tron’s TRX could test resistance at $0.11 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $0.1098.

Failure to move through $0.09500 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.08589 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.07870. The second major support level at $0.08019 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.08589

First Major Resistance Level: $0.1007

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0787

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0989

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.1316

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 21st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 8.93% on Monday. Following a 2.24% decline on Sunday, Bitcoin ended the day at $43,025.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $47,327.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $48,127, Bitcoin tumbled to a midday intraday low $42,567.0.

Bitcoin fell through the day’s major support levels before briefly revising $44,000 levels.

Coming up against the third major support level at $44,416, however, Bitcoin slid back to end the day at sub-$44,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Monday.

Chainlink slumped by 13.82% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV (-12.60%) and Ripple’s XRP (-12.16%) close behind.

Things were not much better for Binance Coin (-10.91%), Cardano’s ADA (-8.87%), Crypto.com Coin (-10.28%), Ethereum (-10.58%), Litecoin (-10.55%), and Polkadot (-8.15%).

Early in the week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,122bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,863bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,870bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 41.89% before rising to a Monday high 42.76%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 42.38%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 2.51% to $41,943.0. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $43,028.0 to a low $41,935.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was down by 4.89% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $44,306 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $46,046 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $45,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $47,000 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rebound, Bitcoin could test resistance at $50,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $49,066.

Failure to move through the $44,306 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,286 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $39,546.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 21st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 10.58% on Monday. Following a 3.14% loss on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,976.48.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $3,346.58 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of 23.6% FIB of $3,369 and the first major resistance level at $3,431, Ethereum slid to a mid-day intraday low $2,911.81.

Ethereum fell through day’s major support levels to end the day at sub-$3,000 levels.

Through the afternoon, Ethereum had broken back through the third major support level at $2,996 before easing back.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.67% to $2,956.40. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,977.52 before falling to a low $2,952.09.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the $3,078 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,245 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $3,200 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,513.

Failure to move through the $3,078 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,810 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $2,644.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,810

Pivot Level: $3,078

First Major Resistance Level: $3,245

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 10.55% on Monday. Following a 3.08% decline on Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $157.23.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $176.13 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the 23.6% FIB of $178 and the first major resistance level at $181, Litecoin slid to a mid-day intraday low $153.49.

The reversal saw Litecoin fall through the day’s major support levels.

Through the afternoon, Litecoin had broken back through the third major support level at $160 before falling back.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.90% to $155.81. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $157.86 before falling to a low $155.75.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $162 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $171 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $165 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $178 and $180. The second major resistance level sits at $185.

Failure to move through the $162 pivot would bring the first major support level at $148 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$140. The second major support level at $140 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $148

Pivot Level: $162

First Major Resistance Level: $171

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP tumbled by 12.16% on Monday. Following a 2.51% fall on Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.92113.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.04991 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0312, Ripple’s XRP slid to a mid-day intraday low $0.87506.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the day’s major support levels.

Steering clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.8533, however, Ripple’s XRP briefly revisited $0.95 levels before easing back.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.96% to $0.9031. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.92162 to a low $0.90310.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the $0.9487 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $1.0223 into play. Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to move back through to $1.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $1.04991 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $1.1236. Ripple’s XRP would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659.

Failure to move through $0.9487 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $0.8533 and the first major support level at $0.8475 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.80 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.7739.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8475

Pivot Level: $0.9487

First Major resistance Level: $1.0223

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Gold Recovers as Worldwide Equites Sell Off

The worldwide equity selloff began overseas and then continued into the U.S. equities markets. At its low today the Dow Jones industrial average was down 900 points before recovering. The Dow gave up 614 points in trading today and closed at 33,970.47, resulting in a net decline of 1.78%. The NASDAQ composite lost 2.19% and is currently fixed at 14,713.9030. The S&P 500 lost 1.70% and is currently fixed at 4357.73.

gold sept 20

As of 5:56 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 contract is currently up to $13.30 and fixed at $1764.70. Silver did sustain a mild selloff closing lower by 0.41%, and after factoring in today’s decline of a little over nine cents, it is currently fixed at $22.245.

silver sept 20

Reuters reported that “Wall Street plunged on Monday as fear of contagion from a potential collapse of China’s Evergrande prompted a broad selloff and sent investors fleeing equities for safety.”

They also added that “the equity selloff in the United States was a result of concerns of solvency of the Chinese property group Evergrande. “Gold rose on Monday as fears about the solvency of Chinese property group Evergrande sparked a flight to safe-haven assets, but gains were capped by strength in the dollar ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,762.66 per ounce by 1753 GMT. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $1,765.40.”

The Chinese property to developers has accumulated over $300 billion in debt mostly with the Central Bank of China.

The Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow and begin September’s FOMC meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday. Market participants and traders hope to gain more clarity as to the timeline in which the Federal Reserve will begin to taper their monthly asset purchases of $120 billion (80 billion in U.S. debt and 40 billion in mortgage-backed securities).

There is genuine uncertainty as to what actions the Federal Reserve will take in regards to their current monthly asset purchases. Their asset balance sheet has swelled to above $8 trillion in assets. However, their primary focus has been upon maximum employment, a major component of their dual mandate which is maximum employment and annual inflationary levels of around 2%. They have let inflation run much hotter in lieu of achieving their maximum employment goal. Believing that the majority of the current level of inflation is transitory, the Federal Reserve has let inflation run to 5.3%, based upon the latest CPI numbers released last week.

However, the most recent jobs report was extremely disappointing and deeply below expectations and forecasts from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. The expectation was that the August jobs report would indicate an additional 700,000+ new jobs added to payrolls, and the actual number was a tepid 235,000 new jobs added last month.

The weak August jobs report will be weighed against the most recent report by the U.S. Census Bureau, which indicated robust consumer spending last month, resulting in $618 billion, up 0.8%. Economists polled were looking for August consumer spending to be down between -0.8 to -1.8. If you strip out consumer spending on automobiles and trucks, the actual gain for the month of August is 1.8%.

These two reports show an interesting mix between new jobs added and consumer spending. While the jobs report was disappointing and weak at best, consumer spending rose far past the expectations given by economists. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will be faced with making a decision based on strong consumer spending and weak growth in jobs. That will certainly influence their decision as to when they will begin to taper.

For those who would like more information, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

September 21st 2021: EUR/USD Eyes H1 Prime Resistance at $1.1767-1.1776 After $1.17 Support

Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Technical studies reveal movement hovering north of prime support at $1.1473-1.1583 on the weekly timeframe. Gleaning additional technical confluence through a 100% Fib projection at $1.1613 and 1.27% Fib extension at $1.1550, this base remains a key watch, long term. With respect to trend on the weekly chart, the market has largely been bullish since the early 2020.

Meanwhile, a closer reading of price on the daily timeframe reveals Monday spiked to within a stone’s throw of Quasimodo support at $1.1689. Albeit sponsoring a late August bid (black arrow), action from $1.1689 failed to find approval north of late July tops at $1.1909; therefore, this ranks $1.1689 as perhaps frail support. Assuming bearish leadership on the daily, the $1.1612 and $1.1602 (September/November 2020) lows signify downside support targets, followed by Fibonacci support between $1.1420 and $1.1522 (glued to the lower side of the weekly timeframe’s prime support at $1.1473-1.1583).

Charted a pip ahead of the daily Quasimodo, the $1.1690-1.1705 decision point put in an appearance on Monday, encouraging H4 sellers to dial back and hand the baton to buyers. Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1742 is now in range on this timeframe, with subsequent bullish interest to perhaps take aim at Quasimodo resistance from $1.1771.

Intraday action on Monday was interesting. The US dollar, in addition to other safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, gained traction Monday, elevated amidst clear-cut risk-off sentiment. Europe’s single currency, however, reclaimed a large slice of lost ground, aided (technically) not only by the H4 decision point mentioned above at $1.1690-1.1705, but also $1.17 on the H1. At the time of writing, H1 resistance at $1.1728 is active; rupturing the latter paves the way to $1.1742 on the H4, a level shadowed by H1 prime resistance coming in at $1.1767-1.1776, joined by supply at $1.1762-1.1774.

Observed Levels:

Extending recovery gains on short-term charts may have sellers move in on prime resistance at $1.1767-1.1776 on the H1 and supply from $1.1762-1.1774, which dovetails with H4 Quasimodo resistance at $1.1771. However, prior to this, sellers might engage with Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1742 on the H4.

An alternative scenario to be mindful of is a whipsaw south of $1.17 on the H1 to daily Quasimodo support parked at $1.1689. $1.1689 bids feeding off sell-stops below $1.17 could be enough to chalk up a bullish wave.

AUD/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Latest out of the weekly timeframe has AUD/USD touching gloves with prime support at $0.6968-0.7242. Since printing a two-week recovery in late August, the currency pair has been fighting to entice fresh bullish interest. Failure to command position from $0.6968-0.7242 opens up support at $0.6673. Buyers regaining consciousness, nevertheless, has prime resistance at $0.7849-0.7599 to target. Trend studies on the weekly scale show we’ve been higher since early 2020. Consequently, the response from $0.6968-0.7242 could STILL be the beginnings of a dip-buying attempt to merge with the current trend.

The daily timeframe’s technical landscape informs traders bids are perhaps thin within weekly prime support, at least until price shakes hands with Fibonacci support at $0.7057-0.7126. Those who follow the relative strength index (RSI) will note the value journeyed through the 50.00 centreline last week and had Monday dip a toe below 40.00. This highlights a bearish atmosphere until making contact with oversold territory.

Price action on the H4 timeframe came within touching distance of a half-hearted decision point at $0.7200-0.7218 on Monday. To the upside, two resistances are on the radar at $0.7281 and $0.7317.

Lower on the curve, a H1 decision point at $0.7269-0.7259 elbowed into the spotlight, an area formed in the early hours of Monday which saw price tunnel through demand at $0.7248-$0.7259. Continued interest to the downside has $0.72 to target.

Observed Levels:

Each timeframe analysed underlines a bearish energy.

Weekly prime support at $0.6968-0.7242 appears vulnerable due to the daily timeframe exhibiting scope to approach Fibonacci support at $0.7057-0.7126. This, on top of the H1 timeframe’s decision point at $0.7269-0.7259 making a show, implies a short term move to $0.72 (H1) could be in the offing (note $0.72 aligns with the lower band of the H4 decision point at $0.7200-0.7218).

USD/JPY:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Since mid-July, ¥108.40-109.41 demand has failed to stir much bullish energy on the weekly timeframe. Nevertheless, recognising the area derives additional backing from neighbouring descending resistance-turned support, extended from the high ¥118.61, an advance could eventually emerge to familiar supply at ¥113.81-112.22.

The uninspiring vibe out of weekly demand is demonstrated by way of a consolidation on the daily timeframe between prime support at ¥108.96-109.34 and resistance from ¥110.86-110.27. Range support, as you can see, is currently in the frame. In the event price deviates from range extremes, Quasimodo resistance at ¥111.11 is seen, along with a concealed Quasimodo support at ¥108.43. Based on the relative strength index (RSI), the value is confined to a consolidation surrounding the 50.00 centreline, between 40.87 and 56.85.

Broad declines observed in major US equity indexes elevated demand for the safe-haven JPY Monday. USD/JPY downside swings technical curiosity to the H4 double-top pattern’s (¥110.44) profit target around ¥108.71—sharing chart space with a 1.618% Fibonacci projection at ¥108.86 and a 1.272% Fibonacci projection at ¥108.72. However, in order to reach the aforesaid pattern target, the lower edge of the daily range support highlighted above at ¥108.96-109.34 must be taken.

Heading into early US trading on Monday, H1 crossed swords with Quasimodo resistance-turned support at ¥109.45, and clocked a ¥109.65 top before changing gears and heading towards Quasimodo support at ¥109.31. Territory below the latter reveals support at ¥109.11.

Observed Levels:

In keeping with the H4 timeframe, booking additional losses is possibly on the cards until the double-top pattern’s (¥110.44) profit target around ¥108.71. Still, to reach the aforementioned profit target, sellers must marginally defeat the daily timeframe’s range support at ¥108.96-109.34 and take on any bullish interest from weekly demand at ¥108.40-109.41.

Should we nudge through H1 Quasimodo support at ¥109.31, this could be an early sign of bearish muscle making an entrance, and with this, additional selling might take shape.

GBP/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

In the shape of a hammer candlestick formation (bullish signal), supply-turned demand at $1.3629-1.3456 on the weekly timeframe stepped forward in July. The aforementioned zone remains active, welcoming an additional test mid-August. Yet, pattern traders will also note August’s move closed south of a double-top pattern’s neckline at $1.3669, broadcasting a bearish vibe. Conservative pattern sellers, however, are likely to pursue a candle close beneath $1.3629-1.3456 before pulling the trigger.

Sterling kicked off the week on the ropes, clocking one-month lows versus the US dollar. GBP/USD remains comfortable beneath the 200-day simple moving average at $1.3831 and is within reach of Quasimodo support at $1.3609. Previous analysis underlined the daily chart has communicated a rangebound environment since late June between a 61.8% Fib retracement at $1.3991 and the noted Quasimodo support. Momentum, according to the relative strength index (RSI) value, extended position below the 50.00 centreline and scraped through 40.00 on Monday. This informs traders that momentum to the downside is increasing in the form of average losses exceeding average gains.

Yesterday’s bearish presence established a decision point at $1.3750-1.3721, an area forming a decision to tunnel through Quasimodo support from $1.3693 (currently serving as resistance). Daily Quasimodo support mentioned above at $1.3609 calls for attention as a downside objective also on the H4 scale.

From the H1 timeframe, mid-way through London on Monday clipped the lower side of $1.37 and also brought in resistance at $1.3689—a previous Quasimodo support level drawn from 26th August. Further softening places Quasimodo support at $1.3618 and the $1.36 figure in sight.

Observed Levels:

Having noted scope for the daily timeframe to test Quasimodo support at $1.3609, retesting either H4 resistance at $1.3693 or the H4 decision point at $1.3750-1.3721 could stir a bearish theme. Adding weight to $1.3693 is H1 resistance coming in at $1.3689 and the $1.37 figure.

The H1 Quasimodo support at $1.3618 forms a reasonable downside target, arranged just north of the noted Quasimodo support on the daily timeframe.

DISCLAIMER:

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USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Rise on Risk-off Trade

 

The dollar surged higher and hit key resistance levels as Canada went to the polls on Monday.  Riskier assets headed south which has benefited the greenback as a safe-haven currency. Prime Minister Trudeau and his Conservative challenger O’Toole appear to be running neck and neck.

Technical Analysis

The dollar moved higher against the Loonie, as the safe-haven lure of the greenback pushed the U.S. currency higher against most major currencies. The exchange rate hit resistance near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1.2910. Support on the exchange rate is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.2690 and the 50-day moving average at 1.2600. The exchange rate is overbought as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 81, above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a rising trajectory which points to a higher exchange rate.

The Debt Ceiling Generates Risk

Congress has been stalling any movement related to future spending despite urging from Treasury Secretary Yellen to act.  There are rumors that The House of Representation may take up a stop-gap measure to extend expenditures, but this attempted will have difficulty in the Senate.

Silver Price Prediction – Prices Test Key Support as Prices are Oversold

Silver prices moved lower but bounced off key support levels despite a rally in the dollar. The rise of the greenback on Monday generated headwinds for silver prices as risk-off speed accelerates. U.S. Yields moved. Gold prices have failed to become the security of choice during a risk-off period, edged slightly higher, which helped buoy silver.

[fx-broker slug=fxtm]

Technical analysis

Silver prices continued to trend lower but held key support levels seen near the August and December lows at 21.95. If prices are able to close above this level for consecutive days it will likely generate a bounce Prices remained below resistance seen near the 10-day moving average, at 23.51. Target support is seen near the August lows at 22.10. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 9, below the oversold trigger level of 20, which could foreshadow a correction.

Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover signal. This sell signal occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Debt Ceiling is not Under Control

The risk-off trade accelerated, continuing the trend experienced at the end of last week.  Congress has been stalling despite urging from Treasury Secretary Yellen to act.  There are rumors that The House of Representation may take up a stop-gap measure to extend spending, but this attempted will have difficulty in the Senate.

How To Visualize A Market Dip

So that got me thinking. If September is usually negative, is there a way to capture the dip? Well, here’s my way of visualizing a market dip.

I’m all about data…especially Big Money data. My favorite indicator is the Big Money Index. It’s my way to tracking what big institutions are likely doing in stocks.

When it falls, expect red markets. When it rises, get the rally hats out:

Chart, line chart

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Source: www.mapsignals.com

You can see that it’s in an uptrend because summer-selling has been slowing.

Inside of the BMI are the daily buys and sells. Below you can see how buying has been increasing lately. That’s why the BMI is perking higher. I’ve circled the increased buying:

Chart, histogram

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Source: www.mapsignals.com

But since this article is all about a market dip, look how using MAPsignals data can help us visualize a market dip.

Below is the same chart, but I’ve isolated those big red days. Those are days when there’s a lot of selling in stocks. Look:

Chart, histogram

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Source: www.mapsignals.com

Notice how each of those big red sticks marks the low for the market? That’s the S&P 500 (SPY ETF) I’m using as the market gauge.

But more importantly, look at the 2 week forward performance of SPY after those big sell days. It’s mega juice:

Table

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Source: MAPsignals, FactSet

That’s how I visualize a market dip with data. But what’s cool is we can see the same similar patterns in ETFs. Below are the daily Big Money buys and sells of ETFs according to MAPsignals. I’ve outlined big red sell days:

Chart, histogram

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Source: MAPsignals.com

Visually it looks like the stock sells chart. And for good measure, here’s the 2-week return for all of those instances above.

Table

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Source: MAPsignals, FactSet

Talk about a cool way to see a market dip through the eyes of data.

Here’s the bottom line:

Investors and traders like to talk about buying the dip. And it’s a real phenomenon. Recently, we can see that big sell days for stocks and ETFs have been dips to buy. Will that be the case in the future? Only time will tell.

But, one thing should be apparent. Data can be helpful to a solid trading process.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in SPY, QQQ, DIA, or IWM at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here: www.mapsignals.com

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Keysight Stock Attracts Big Money

So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock goes up in price alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.

Smart money managers are always looking for the next hot stock. And Keysight has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.

This sets up well for the stock going forward. But how the stock is trading points to more upside. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares for years.

You see, fund managers are always looking to bet on the next outlier stocks…the best in class. They spend countless hours sizing up companies, reading reports, speaking to analysts…you name it. When they find a company firing on all cylinders, they pounce in a big way.

That’s why I’ve learned how critical it is to gauge Big Money demand for shares. To show you what I mean, have a look at all the big money signals KEYS has made the last year.

The last few weeks have seen Big Money activity, too. Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:

Chart, histogram

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Source: www.mapsignals.com

In 2021, the stock has attracted 17 Big Money buy signals and zero sell signals. Generally speaking, recent green bars could mean more upside is ahead.

Now, let’s check out technical action grabbing my attention:

  • 1-year outperformance vs. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (+33.83% vs. SMH)

Outperformance is huge for leading stocks.

Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is strong too. As you can see, Keysight has been growing revenues and earnings rapidly. Take a look:

  • 3-year sales growth rate (+10.21%)
  • 3-year earnings growth rate (+110.51%)

Source: FactSet

Marrying great fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.

In fact, Keysight has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals, for years. That means the stock saw buy pressure, strong technicals, and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.

KEYS has a lot of qualities that are attracting Big Money. And since it first appeared on this report back on 1/15/2019, it’s up 162%. The blue bars below show the times that Keysight was a top pick:

Chart, histogram

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Source: www.mapsignals.com

It’s been an all-star stock for years according to the MAPsignals process. I wouldn’t be surprised if KEYS makes additional appearances in the years to come. Let’s tie this all together.

Keysight continues to fire on all cylinders technically alongside growing sales and earnings. I like the long-term story of the stock.

The Bottom Line

The Keysight rally could have further to go. Big money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a growth-oriented portfolio.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in KEYS at the time of publication.

Learn more about the MAPsignals process here.

Disclaimer

https://mapsignals.com/contact/

 

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide Through Support as Supply Increases

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday as fear of tropical storm activity abated.  The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next 6-10 days, but then becomes milder, according to a forecast from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The most recent report from the EIA showed a larger than expected build in natural gas inventories, but stocks remain well below the 5-year average. U.S. Supply increased in the latest week.

Technical Analysis

On Monday, natural gas prices dropped sharply, falling 2.75% and gapping lower through key support, which is now resistant near the 10-day moving average at 5.08. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 4.23. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic recently generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average converge divergence) histogram is printing in negative territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Supply Increases

U.S. supply increases as production begins to come back online in the Gulf of Mexico. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1.7% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 1.4%, or 1.3 Bcf per day, compared with the previous report week. According to daily reports from BSEE, on a weekly basis, natural gas production outages in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico decreased by about 0.6 Bcf per day this report week compared with the last report.

S&P 500 Update: Anticipated Correction Unfolding. Low-4000s on Tap as Expected

In my last update, see here, I showed by using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) that the S&P500 (SPX) had most likely completed a significant-top (wave-iii of 3) and would be heading down to the low-4000s on a break below the August low at SPX4368. Nine days later and the index is already trading at SPX4345. Thus the anticipated correction is unfolding, and the low-4000s remain IMHO in tap with an ideal target of SPX4250+/-20. Allow me to explain below.

Figure 1. S&P500 daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators

Today’s break below the August low makes for a lower low

In my last update, I showed that “since the early May low, the SPX has been in an overlapping set of regular interval rallies, lasting about 20 TDs with 3-day corrections, all bottoming around the 18th of each month. Each low and high was a higher low and a higher high: a Bullish pattern. Hence, because the most recent string of down days is already five, a drop below the August low at SPX4368 (orange wave-4 at the green arrow) will confirm a (red) intermediate wave-iv to ideally SPX4030-4235 is underway. I prefer the upper end of the target zone because, in Bull markets, the downside often disappoints, and the upside surprises.

Well, we got the break lower. Thus we have a lower low, and now SPX4030-4235 must be respected as the logical target zone with SPX4250+/-20 as the preferred narrowed-down level to watch. My premium major market members were already ahead of the curve as I identified five waves down last week and anticipated SPX4400-4300 after a bounce (see my tweet here, for example).

The beauty of the EWP is that we know with certainty in an impulse, the 3rd wave up is followed by a 4th wave correction down and then another 5th wave higher. Intermediate wave-iii of major-3 has topped, and wave-iv is now underway, which means wave-v of major-3 is still pending.

For now, I anticipate the SPX to bottom out soon (green minor wave-a in Figure 1 above) at ideally SPX4310-4335, and at a minimum, provide us with a strong bounce (green minor wave-b) before heading lower again. However, there are by then already enough waves in place to call the correction complete: three waves (a,b,c). Besides, I expect wave-v of wave-3 to complete around SPX4800-5000. Thus it is soon time to look for higher price, be it for a bounce (to possibly as high as SPX4600) or a new rally.

Bottom line: the correction I anticipated nine days ago is unfolding. I am now looking for a bottom soon in the SPX4310-4335 region before expecting a significant bounce at a minimum, possibly already a new rally. Namely, ideally, this correction should last longer and reach SPX4250+/-20, but there are soon enough waves in place to consider it complete. And in a Bull market, it is prudent to respect the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 14920.25, Strengthens Over 15069.75

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower at the mid-session as global technology shares take a hit across the board. No sector or subsector is safe from heavy selling pressure during today’s session. The catalysts behind the sell-off are worries over the strength of the global market recovery and fear that economic problems in China will spread to other financial markets.

At 17:10 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14887.50, down 438.50 or -2.86%.

In stock related news, Advanced Micro Devices Inc is the performing the worst, down 3.22%. Adobe Inc is down 2.28%. Align Technology is off by 2.50%, Amazon.com Inc is weaker by 3.53% and Amgen Inc is trading 1.70% lower.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower.  A trade through 14699.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through 15702.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 15532.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is 14437.00 to 15702.25. The index is currently testing the lower end of its retracement zone at 15069.75 to 14920.25.

The main range is 13450.00 to 15702.25. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 14576.00 to 14310.25.

The minor range is 14699.00 to 15702.25. Its 50% level at 15200.75 is additional resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14920.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14920.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 14699.

Taking out 14699 will change the main trend to down and could trigger an acceleration into the retracement zone at 14576.00 to 14310.25. Look for buyers on the first test of this area.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14920.50 will signal the return of buyers. This could create a lowered rally with potential upside targets coming in at 15069.75 and 15200.75.

Overtaking 15200.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Overcoming 15326.00 will put the index in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Weak Under 33826, Strong Over 34132

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down sharply at the mid-session on Monday as concerns about the pace of a global recovery spurred a sell-off across sectors at the start of a week in which the Federal Reserve will decide on potentially tapering its pandemic-era stimulus.

At 16:42 GMT, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 33739, down 723 or -2.10%.

In stock related news, Dow Component Caterpillar Inc is down 4.86%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc is off by 4.4%, followed by American Express and JPMorgan Chase & Co, which are both lower by 3.47%. Dow Inc is down 3.28%.

Daily December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next major downside target is the July 19 main bottom at 33533, followed by the June 21 main bottom at 32835.

A trade through 35383 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, traders should start watching for a closing price reversal bottom chart pattern. This would change the trend, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The main range is 32835 to 35429. The Dow just crossed over to the weak side of its retracement zone at 33826 to 34132, making it new resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 33826.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 33826 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move continues to generate enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into 33533. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 32835 the next likely target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 33826 will signal the return of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible intraday surge into 34132. Overtaking this area could put the Dow in a position to close higher for the session and thus form a closing price reversal bottom.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Experience Dead-Cat Bounce

Gold prices traded sideways and continued to experience a dead-cat bounce. The upward momentum was drained by the selloff last week. The rally in the dollar on Monday generated headwinds for gold prices as risk-off speed accelerates. U.S. Yields moved lower as the safety of U.S. treasury bonds lured traders. Gold prices have failed to become the security of choice during a risk-off period. The U.S. debt ceiling is approaching, which means that Congress needs to extend spending, or the government will shut down.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices consolidated and continue to form a bear flag pattern. This scenario is a continuation pattern that pauses before it refreshes lower. Generally, the recovery from a sharp selloff is muted forming a dead-cat bounce before prices start to move lower again. Prices remained below resistance seen near the 10-day moving average, at 1,782. Target support is seen near the August lows at 1,677. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term downtrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 17, below the oversold trigger level of 20, which could foreshadow a correction.

Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover signal. This sell signal occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Is Under Pressure At The Start Of The Week

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD made an attempt to settle above the resistance at 1.2900 but lost momentum and declined towards 1.2830 while the U.S. dollar lost momentum against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index faced strong resistance at 93.40 and declined towards 93.20. The nearest support level for the U.S. Dollar Index is located at 93.10. In case the U.S. Dollar Index declines below this level, it will head towards the support at 92.80 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

While it’s an Election Day in Canada, foreign exchange market traders focused on general market sentiment and dynamics of commodity markets which were under pressure on fears about financial problems of China’s Evergrande.

U.S. dollar was gaining ground against a broad basket of currencies as demand for safe-haven assets increased. However, traders were not ready to push the U.S. currency towards yearly highs as they remained cautious ahead of the Fed meeting.

Meanwhile, Canadian dollar was under pressure as WTI oil made an attempt to settle below the psychologically important $70 level. If WTI oil settles below this level, it will head towards the 50 EMA at 69.40 which will be bearish for commodity-related currencies, including Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad september 20 2021

USD to CAD is currently trying to settle back above 1.2830. RSI is close to the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

In case USD to CAD manages to settle above 1.2830, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.2850. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2865. If USD to CAD gets above 1.2865, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2900.

On the support side, a move below 1.2830 will push USD to CAD towards the support at 1.2785. In case USD to CAD declines below 1.2785, it will head towards the support at 1.2760. A move below 1.2760 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2730.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Break Trendline

The S&P 500 has fallen hard during the trading session on Monday, breaking below a major trendline. Furthermore, the market is below the 50 day EMA, something that catches a lot of people’s attention. With this being the case, it is very likely that the 4350 level is an area where we have seen a little bit of support. At this point though, it looks as if the market is trying to break down rather significantly, and if that is going to be the case, then I might be a buyer of puts. I will not get crazy to the short side, because quite frankly it is just so difficult to imagine a scenario where I am comfortable shorting a market that is so highly manipulated. At this point, the market is struggling overall, and I would be cautious about anything the Federal Reserve says or does.

S&P 500 Video 21.09.21

The 4300 level being broken probably opens even more stringent selling, but again, I would not be short of this market, rather I would be a buyer of puts. If we turn around to take out the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, that would be a very bullish sign, and eventually make this a “false breakout”, something that causes a lot of trouble for short sellers.

Regardless, this is a market that I think will eventually find a reason to go higher, if for no other reason than the Federal Reserve stepping in and jawboning the market, or perhaps getting involved in the bond market. Yes, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to credit situations in China, but that being said Wall Street always seems to have a narrative that it hangs on to to start buying again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Bounce From $22

Silver markets have fallen rather hard during the course of the trading session on Monday but found enough support at the $22 level to turn things around and show signs of life again. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility in this area, due to the fact that the $22 level is so important from a longer-term standpoint. Quite frankly, if we break down below the $22 level, it is likely that we could see massive selling pressure jump into this market, perhaps reaching down towards the $20 level.

SILVER Video 21.09.21

To the upside, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick it is likely that we could go looking towards the $23 level. That is an area that has offered support in the past, so it should in theory at least offer resistance going forward. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very noisy, and you need to pay close attention to the US dollar as it tends to move in a negative correlation to silver.

The market has been drifting lower for a while, and even though we have bounced a bit during the trading session on Monday, it is likely that we are going to see a little bit of a bounce in order to find more selling pressure. I would be a seller of signs of exhaustion to the upside, but I also recognize that at the US dollar suddenly gets sold off, that could provide a little bit of “rocket fuel” to send silver much higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Pull Back Towards 50 Day EMA

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday, to reach down towards the 50 day EMA. If we can break above the highs of the trading session, it is very likely that we continue to see the momentum to the upside. At that point, the market is likely to test the $74 level, possibly even the $75 level given enough time.

To the downside, the 50 day EMA and the downtrend line both offer a significant amount of support, so there is no way that I can justify shorting this market until we break down below the $67.50 level underneath, which had been a major support level.

Crude Oil Video 21.09.21

Brent

Brent markets also fell initially during the trading session but have turned around to show signs of life again. Because of this, I think that the buyers will continue to jump into this market to pick up any signs of value. For whatever reason, traders still believe that there is going to be a huge move into the energy sector, and at this point in time it is very unlikely to see a massive selloff. At this point, I think we probably go looking towards the $77.50 level over the next couple of days but pay close attention to the risk appetite out there. That of course could have a major influence on where we go next. As long as we stay above the $70 level, it is likely that there will be plenty of buyers in this market to take advantage of “cheap oil.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Pull Back Towards the $5.00

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday to slice through the $5.00 level, but as you can see you, the market has turned around to show signs of support. Previously, the market had shot straight up in the air, but quite frankly the market has gotten far too ahead of itself. The $4.80 level underneath should be supportive, so if we were to turn around a break down below that level, then it is likely that we go much lower.

NATGAS Video 21.09.21

The market breaking down below that level opens up the possibility of $4.50 being targeted, as well as the 50 day EMA underneath there. Ultimately, the market would have a massive “floor” in it at the $4.00 level. That being said, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then we could go looking towards the $5.50 level above.

The European Union is hurting for natural gas at the moment, so that has a lot to do with what we are seeing. That being said, there has also been a serious slowdown of refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico due to the recent hurricane. There is also a tropical storm floating around now, so at this point in time it is a bit of a “perfect storm” going forward. Nonetheless, chasing the trade is a great way to lose money so you need to see this market prove itself to the upside, or find value at much lower levels as mentioned previously.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.