Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Sellers Defending $1788.50 Long-Term 50% Level

Gold futures are edging lower on Monday after an early session attempt to take out Friday’s high was met with selling pressure. Treasury yields are dipping lower early in the session, but the U.S. Dollar is trading higher against a basket of currencies, suggesting we could be seeing early signs of a risk off trading session.

At 01:30 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1776.60, down $3.60 or -0.20%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1784.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1723.20.

On the upside, the major resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

On the downside, the support is a series of 50% levels at $1767.60, $1754.00, $1746.90 and $1731.00. The major support is the long-term 61.8% level at $1711.90.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1788.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at $1767.60. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of $1767.50. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into a minor 50% level at $1754.00. Once again, buyers could step in to stop the price slide.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1788.50 will signal the presence of buyers. This move could trigger an acceleration to the upside with $1817.60 the next likely upside target price.

Side Notes

For bigger picture traders, the retracement zone at $1788.50 to $1711.90 represents 50% to 61.8%, respectively, of last year’s trading range. So overtaking $1788.50 could become a big deal if the buying volume increases on the move. Fundamentally, it’s going to need help from lower yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar. I don’t think gold will be able to sustain a rally over $1788.50 without help from those two factors.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Update – Strengthens Over $63.47, Weakens Under $62.29

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are inching lower early Monday, following a 6% gain last week. The market is being supported by friendly demand outlooks from IEA and OPEC and a rapidly improving global economy. However, lingering concerns over rising COVID-19 cases may be keeping a lid on prices, suggesting the weakness is being fueled by profit-taking.

At 01:04 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $62.83, down $0.36 or -0.57%.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $66.15 will change the main trend to up. A move through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend will change to down on a trade through $57.68. A new minor top has formed at $63.94. A trade through this price will reaffirm the minor trend.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47. Sellers are trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are trying to drive the market higher.

The minor range is $57.29 to $63.94. Its 50% level at $60.61 is a potential support price.

The main range is $67.29 to $51.04. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is potential support. It’s also controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $63.47.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.47 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first potential downside target is the short-term 50% level at $62.29.

Buyers could come in on the first test of $62.29, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor 50% level at $60.61.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.47 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at $63.94. Overtaking this level could trigger the start of a drive into $66.15, followed by $67.20.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 19th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 6.29% on Sunday. Following on from a 2.27% decline on Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week down by 6.43% to $56,172.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $60,279.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $61,197, Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $50,500.0.

The extended sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the major support levels

Finding support at the 23.6% FIB of $50,473, Bitcoin broke back through the third major resistance level at $55,104 to end the day at $56,100 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact in spite of the slide back to $50,500 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Sunday.

Crypto.com Coin tumbled by 15.14% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV sliding by 12.39%.

Litecoin (-8.92%) and Ripple’s XRP (-8.28%) also saw heavy losses.

Binance Coin (-6.24%), Cardano’s ADA (-6.50%), Chainlink (-2.17%), Ethereum (-3.35%), and Polkadot (-5.14%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

It was also a mixed week for the majors in the week ending 18th April.

Binance Coin slid by 8.23%, with Crypto.com Coin falling by 5.08% to join Bitcoin in the red.

It was a bullish week for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV jumped by 25.25% to lead the way, with Polkadot rallying by 15.72%.

Cardano’s ADA (+1.32%), Ethereum (+4.23%), Litecoin (+8.68%), and Ripple’s XRP (+4.67%) also ended the week in positive territory.

In the week, the crypto total market rose to a Friday high $2,305bn before sliding to a Sunday low $1,755bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,019bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.37%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.52%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.81% to $56,625.1. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $55,709.0 before rising to a high $56,666.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Polkadot (-0.77%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.55%) saw red to buck the trend early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was up by 3.69% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $55,650 to bring the first major resistance level at $60,801 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $60,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $60,279.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,429.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $55,650 pivot would bring the first major support level at $51,022 and the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$50,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $45,871.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 19th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.35% on Sunday. Following on from a 4.45% decline on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 4.23% to $2,241.45.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $2,341.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,439, Ethereum slid to an early morning intraday low $2,000.00.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,258 and the second major support level at $2,197.

Finding support at the third major support level at $2,016, Ethereum bounced back to end the day at $2,200 levels.

The partial recovery saw Ethereum break back through the second major support level at $2,197.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.60% to $2,228.01. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,254.00 before falling to a low $2,205.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $2,194 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,388.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $2,341.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,500 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,535.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $2,194 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,047 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $1,853. The 23.6% FIB of $1,966 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,047

Pivot Level: $2,194

First Major Resistance Level: $2,388

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 8.92% on Sunday.  Following on from a 2.51% fall from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week up by 8.68% to $274.20.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $305.33 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $325, Litecoin slid to an early morning intraday low $241.09.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $287 and the second major support level at $273.

More significantly, Litecoin also tumbled through the 23.6% FIB of $262.

Finding late morning support, Litecoin moved back through the 23.6% FIB and the second major support level to end the day at $274 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.12% to $271.13. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $275.62 before falling to a low $267.69.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move back the $274 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $306.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $305.33 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a bounce back, Litecoin could test resistance at $320 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $338.

Failure to move back through the $274 pivot level would bring the 23.6% FIB of $262 and the first major support level at $242 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the the second major support level at $209. The 38.2% FIB of $217 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $242

Pivot Level: $274

First Major Resistance Level: $306

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 8.28% on Sunday. Following a 0.62% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week up by 4.67% to $1.41371.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.56714 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.6802, Ripple’s XRP slid to an early morning intraday low $1.15000.

Ripple’s XRP slid through the day’s major support levels before finding support.

More significantly, Ripple’s XRP also fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

Steering clear of sub-$1.00 levels, Ripple’s XRP bounced back to end the day at $1.41 levels.

The partial recovery had seen Ripple’s XRP break back through the third major support level at $1.1848 and the second major support level at $1.3960.

Ripple’s XRP also broke back through the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 2.29% to $1.38138. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $1.43776 before falling to a low $1.36000.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 190421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.6039 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $1.80 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.7941.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $1.3770 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.2807 and the first major support level at $1.1868 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.00 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.9598.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.1868

Pivot Level: $1.3770

First Major resistance Level: $1.6039

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – New Support Moves Up to 13786.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures finished slightly higher on Friday. The index hit a new record high during the session, but it was a struggle with tech behemoths Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Microsoft Corp, slipping between 0.2% and 1.5%. In the cash market, the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite finished less than one percent below its own all-time closing high achieved on February 12.

On Friday, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 14029.50, up 15.50 or +0.11%.

The Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low despite inflation has also revived demand for richly valued technology stocks, although bond yields edged higher again on Friday after hitting multi-week lows a day earlier.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out Thursday’s high at 14034.25.

A trade through 12609.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index closed on Friday inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 13512.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 13512.50 to 14059.50. Its 50% level at 13786.00 is the nearest support.

The main range is 12609.75 to 14059.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 13334.50 to 13165.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The uptrend is very strong and it’s going to take some time to change the main trend to down. However, a higher-high, lower-close will be the first sign of selling pressure. The formation of a closing price reversal top chart pattern will give investors an early warning to start trimming long positions.

Some aggressive traders will choose to use this chart pattern as a shorting opportunity. This will be much better than trying to pick a top. However, keep in mind that a closing price reversal top does not change the trend. It only indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

The daily chart currently indicates that a combination of a closing price reversal top and a sustained move under 13786.00 could trigger the start of a steep break with 13334.50 the minimum objective.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

IBM Spin-Off Attracting Little Excitement

International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) reports Q1 2021 earnings after Monday’s closing bell, with analysts expecting a profit of $1.62 per-share on $17.35 billion in revenue. If met, earnings-per-share (EPS) will mark a 12% profit decline compared to the same quarter in 2020, which included the Wuhan outbreak and worldwide lockdowns. The stock fell nearly 10% in January after missing Q4 revenue estimates and failing to provide a detailed fiscal year outlook.

IBM Q4 Spin-Off

The stock rallied to a 52-week high in March, fueled by the spin-off of the legacy Managed Infrastructure Services (MIS) business into a publicly-traded entity, in a transaction expected to close by year’s end. A flood of partnerships and acquisitions is populating the new high growth core operation, including purchases of cloud and fintech firms TruQua Enterprises, Instana, Expertus Technologies, Nordcloud, 7Summits, Taos Mountain, and myInvenio,

The spin-off will isolate slow-growing segments responsible for the tech giant’s downtrend so that core operations, dubbed NewCo, can concentrate on rapidly-growing cloud and artificial intelligence businesses. NewCo should attract a higher price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) than the predecessor, marking IBM’s most ambitious initiative in decades. However, shareholders will also get proportional shares of the legacy company, which could perform poorly in coming years.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street is taking a ‘wait and see’ attitude with the upcoming spin-off, posting a consensus ‘Hold’ rating based upon 5 ‘Buy’, 10 ‘Hold’, and 2 ‘Sell’ recommendations. Price targets currently range from a low of $115 to a Street-high $165 while the stock closed Friday’s session just $2 below the median $140 target. This placement sets the stage for higher prices in reaction to an upbeat report that focuses on the benefits of the upcoming reorganization.

The stock entered a multiyear downtrend after topping out in 2012 and may have bottomed out in March 2020. Lower highs posted during the decline have carved a well-defined trendline that now places major resistance at 150. A breakout will confirm the first uptrend in eight years but that isn’t likely in the short-term because accumulation readings have slumped to two-year lows despite the first quarter uptick, predicting rangebound action into the foreseeable future.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Vulnerable to Reversal Top

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rallied on Friday, setting another record in the process amid strong earnings from blue-chip companies especially the bank stocks, which continued to rise on bumper quarterly earnings reports.

Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, helping to boost the performance of Dow components JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group as investors continued to bet on a swift economic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 34081, up 158 or +0.46%.

In other news, the University of Michigan said Friday its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to a one-year high of 86.5 in the first half of this month form 84.9 in March. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday the U.S. economy is set to take off, but there’s still no reason to start tightening policy.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 33862. A trade through 34144 on Monday will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 31951 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the Dow is ripe for a closing price reversal top.

We’re not going to guess when the pattern will form. We’re not going to sell a new high and hope for a lower close. We’re likely to let it form first then wait for the confirmation. The uptrend is strong so it doesn’t make sense to try to guess until we start to see evidence of sellers.

We do suspect, however, that the top won’t be formed by economic data, but rather a surprise event. Something has to happen that will create enough uncertainty to encourage the longs to start trimming positions.

Short-Term Outlook

A higher-high, lower-close will be the best sign that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. The next best sign will be a lower-low, which will make 34144 a new minor top.

A third sign of a top will be the failure to hold the minor 50% level at 33651.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – New Minor Support Moves Up to 4142.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher on Friday with the benchmark index breaking another record close. The strength was driven by strong economic data and bank earnings which served as signs of momentum in the U.S. pandemic recovery.

On Friday, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 4176.25, up 13.75 or +0.33%.

Nine of the 11 S&P sub-sectors rose on Friday. The energy and information technology indexes were the exceptions. The, dipping 0.9%, was weighed by lower oil prices, while the latter was marginally lower, the day after its highest-ever close.

In other news, Morgan Stanley reported a 150% jump in quarterly profit on Friday, joining other big banks in posting first-quarter numbers reinforcing hopes of a swift economic recovery.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous high at 4166.50.

A trade through 3843.25 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but since the index is up 15 days from its last main bottom, it closed Friday’s session inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4101.5 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4101.25 to 4183.50. Its 50% level at 4142.25 is potential support.

The main range is 3843.25 to 4183.50. If the minor trend changes to down then this will open up the possibility of a further decline into its retracement zone at 4013.25 to 3973.25.

Short-Term Outlook

There is no resistance so it’s important to watch for a few patterns that could signal a short-term top.

Taking out Friday’s low at 4154.25 will make 4183.50 a new minor top. This will be a sign that the selling may be greater than the selling at current price levels.

Taking out 4183.50 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed then this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

It doesn’t make sense to try to pick a top. When you try to short, you’re only feeding the bull.

If this market is going to form a short-term top, it’s not likely to be related to an economic event, but rather surprise news.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 18th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.27% on Saturday. Following on from a 2.98% decline on Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $59,927.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $62,450.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $63,226, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $59,662.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $59,711 before briefly revisiting $60,900 levels.

A bearish end to the day, however, saw Bitcoin fall back to end the day at sub-$60,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Polkadot rallied by 3.87% to lead the way, with Binance Coin rising by 1.08%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 10.95% to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-3.18%), Chainlink (-4.89%), Ethereum (-4.45%), and Litecoin (-2.51%) also struggled.

Crypto.com Coin (-0.08%) and Ripple’s XRP (-0.62%) saw modest losses on the day, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,305bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,136bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Saturday low 51.38%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.85%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.46% to $60,205.0. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $59,934.0 before rising to a high $60,279.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bullish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 1.42% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 180421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $60,680 to bring the first major resistance level at $61,697 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $61,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Saturday’s high $62,450.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $63,468.

Failure to move through the $60,680 pivot would bring the first major support level at $58,909 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$58,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $57,892.

Weekly Technical Market Insight: 19th – 23rd April 2021

Charts provided by Trading View

US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe):

According to the US dollar index, the greenback extended the recent retracement slide by 0.7 percent last week and concluded a touch off session lows.

Technical movement observed an early-week retest at the lower side of the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 92.21. This followed the prior week’s downside breach of the said SMA, movement typically interpreted as a bearish cue. Chart studies also shine light on nearby Quasimodo support coming in from 91.36, with subsequent selling unmasking additional layers of support at 91.00 and 90.00.

For those who read the previous week’s technical market insight, you may recall the report underlined that trend studies have displayed a downside bias since topping in March 2020, shaped by way of clear lower lows and lower highs (black arrows). Interestingly, the 93.43 31st March peak echoes the early stages of a bearish wave within the current downtrend (dashed black arrow).

RSI movement travelled south of the 50.00 centreline last week, implying momentum remains to the downside for the time being. This unearthed support at 41.24, though a break of the level indicates oversold space could be challenged.

  • While an obvious downtrend is evident, the combination of support at 91.00 and Quasimodo support at 91.36 may underpin a short-term bullish scenario this week. A 91.00 breach, on the other hand, hints at bearish conviction, targeting 90.00 support.

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the three-month retracement slide, demand at 1.1857-1.1352 sparked a resurgence of bullish activity in April, up 2.2 percent MTD. The possibility of fresh 2021 peaks is on the table, followed by a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Spinning lower, on the other hand, shines the technical spotlight on trendline resistance-turned support, taken from the high 1.6038.

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

A closer reading of price action on the daily scale reveals EUR/USD voyaged north of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1900 the week ending April 9th. While interpreted as a bullish signal, buyers and sellers squared off around resistance at 1.1966 at the tail end of last week.

Additional bullish sentiment this week directs the technical radar to another layer of resistance at 1.2058, with further outperformance throwing light on Quasimodo resistance at 1.2278.

Despite the 2021 retracement slide, trend studies show the pair has been trending higher since early 2020.

RSI analysis has the value hovering within touching distance of resistance at 60.30. This follows a trendline resistance breach (taken from the peak 75.97) as well as the formation of a bullish failure swing.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 1.1990, sited above daily resistance at 1.1966, capped upside attempts heading into the closing stages of last week. The lack of energy from sellers hints at the possibility of a 1.1990 breach this week, with any bullish bets likely targeting supply at 1.2101-1.2059, which happens to rest on top of daily resistance at 1.2058.

H1 timeframe:

As can be seen from the H1 chart, 1.1956-1.1945 demand proved an effective floor last week, withstanding numerous downside attempts (representing a decision point to break through remaining offers within supply at 1.1956-1.1935).

Trendline support, extended from the low 1.1738, and the 100-period simple moving average at 1.1954, represent additional areas of importance. To the upside, nonetheless, technical analysts will note the 1.20 figure, a widely watched psychological level which may serve as resistance this week. Note that 1.20 resides ten pips above H4 resistance at 1.1990.

Above 1.20 on the H1, resistance is parked at 1.2026 (previous Quasimodo support).

The view from within the RSI oscillator has seen the value weave around the 50.00 centreline since early Thursday. Support to be mindful of rests at 35.45, with resistance tucked inside overbought space at 78.97.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The technical landscape on the bigger picture has buyers at the wheel for now, with monthly price attempting to claw its way out of demand at 1.1857-1.1352. This helps explain the lack of selling around daily resistance at 1.1966.

The above hints at bullish attempts this week, at least until price shakes hands with daily resistance at 1.2058.

Short term:

The bullish vibe stemming from higher timeframes places H4 resistance at 1.1990 in question, along side the 1.20 figure on the H1.

This underscores two possible scenarios:

  • A H1 breakout above 1.20, movement that could interest breakout buyers to H1 resistance at 1.2026, and then daily resistance at 1.2058 as well as H4 supply at 1.2101-1.2059.
  • A test of H1 demand at 1.1956-1.1945 could come about, with buyers likely targeting 1.20, followed by the aforementioned resistances.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, AUD/USD has been consolidating just south of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776 high) and supply from 0.8303-0.8082.

Demand at 0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply) is featured to the downside, should we see a bearish showing over the coming months.

With respect to trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

The Australian dollar modestly snapped a three-day winning streak on Friday, within striking distance of resistance at 0.7817. North of the latter, supply at 0.8045-0.7985 is on the radar.

Lower on the curve, the 0.7563 February low has delivered support since March 25th.

Momentum remains above the 50.00 centreline, according to the RSI oscillator. Increased upside momentum this week is likely to elbow things to channel resistance, drawn from the high 80.12.

H4 timeframe:

Largely unchanged reading from previous analysis.

H4 shows price retested 0.7696-0.7715 as demand Thursday and held.

Quasimodo resistance at 0.7800 deserves notice as the next potential ceiling this week, closely stationed by demand-turned supply from 0.7848-0.7867.

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 0.7715-0.7737 served buyers in early trade on Friday, guiding the currency pair to tops around 0.7760, before collapsing back into the jaws of demand. Interestingly, this demand is glued to the upper side of H4 demand at 0.7696-0.7715.

Beneath 0.7715-0.7737, 0.77 is visible, fixed north of demand at 0.7679-0.7695. This is an important area as it was within this base a decision was made to break above 0.77. Should buyers command position off 0.7715-0.7737 this week, the 0.78 level is likely watched as probable resistance (also represents Quasimodo resistance on the H4).

RSI action dipped a toe in waters beneath 50.00 on Friday, threatening possible moves into oversold space, in particular support at 19.40.

Observed levels:

Long term:

The daily timeframe displays scope to approach resistance at 0.7817 this week. Overthrowing this level underscores a possible bullish phase to supply at 0.8045-0.7985.

Short term:

Lower on the curve, H4 is attempting to secure position above demand at 0.7696-0.7715, aided by H1 demand plotted at 0.7715-0.7737. Therefore, a run higher from the aforesaid demand areas this week is on the table, targeting 0.78 on the H1, closely followed by daily resistance at 0.7817.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and February’s outperformance, March concluded up by 3.9 percent and marginally cut through descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.

April, currently down 1.7 percent, is retesting the breached descending resistance, movement that may eventually ignite bullish flow. With respect to long-term upside targets, supply at 126.10-122.66 calls for attention.

Daily timeframe:

Largely unchanged from previous analysis.

Bids and offers were pretty much even on Friday, establishing what’s known as a doji indecision candle.

Despite supply at 110.94-110.29 limiting upside since the beginning of April, the monthly timeframe testing descending resistance-turned support questions further selling. Consequently, the collection of lows around 108.36ish (green oval) could limit downside moves.

Structure beyond said lows point to demand at 107.58-106.85, in conjunction with trendline support, etched from the low 102.59.

In terms of trend on the daily scale, we have been decisively higher since early 2021.

RSI action journeyed beneath support at 57.00, and recently dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. This implies momentum remains to the downside for the time being.

H4 timeframe:

The Fib cluster drawn between 108.44 and 108.66 (blue), a zone attached to the upper side of demand at 108.31-108.50, stimulated bullish interest on Friday. Sailing through resistance at 108.99 this week may stir additional buying, with the move perhaps underpinning an approach to supply at 109.97-109.72 (houses a 50.0% retracement within at 109.77).

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 108.60-108.71, an area sharing a connection with the H4 Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, supported price action into the second half of the week.

109 calls for attention to the upside, while any bearish flow could lead to support at 108.39.

Momentum dipped in line with price action on Friday, with the RSI oscillator now facing trendline support, taken from the low 20.94. It’s also worth pointing out the RSI crossed beneath the 50.00 centreline, indicating the possibility of increased strength to the downside.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Monthly action testing descending resistance-turned possible support, alongside daily price testing an area of support around the 108.36 lows, emphasises a potential bullish atmosphere this week.

Short term:

H4 crossing swords with a Fib cluster at 108.44-108.66, fastened to the upper side of H4 demand at 108.31-108.50, reinforces the higher timeframe bullish vibe.

While the above H4 zones may be sufficient to encourage bullish interaction, Friday’s lacklustre buying from H1 demand at 108.60-108.71 suggests the unit could be headed for H1 support at 108.39 before buyers attempt to make a show. Note the aforesaid support resides within the lower range of H4 demand noted above at 108.31-108.50.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The pendulum swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance, stirring major trendline resistance (2.1161). February subsequently followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018.

Contained within February’s range, however, March snapped a five-month winning streak and formed what candlestick enthusiasts call an inside candle pattern (represents a short-term consolidation with low volatility). A breakout lower would generally be viewed as a bearish signal.

April has offered limited action so far, currently up by 0.4 percent.

Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way (April high 2018).

Daily timeframe:

Sterling recovered earlier losses against the buck Friday and finished around session tops.

Despite the near-two-month corrective slide, GBP/USD has been trending higher since early 2020.

The technical arrangement on the daily chart remains unchanged. Quasimodo support at 1.3609 is seen, a level associated with a 1.272% Fib expansion at 1.3631, as well as 1.618% and 1.272% Fib extension levels at 1.3614 and 1.3607, respectively. In terms of resistance, April 6th top at 1.3919 is likely considered, closely shadowed by a trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.1409.

RSI movement finished Friday a touch above the 50.00 centreline, suggesting momentum to the upside could continue to gather traction this week.

H4 timeframe:

Latest developments out of the H4 chart reveal Friday crossed swords with trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 1.3670. Note this structure is sheltered just under resistance parked at 1.3852.

A rejection from the said resistances this week throws light back on a possible 1.3680 support test, while scaling above resistance tips the scales in favour of a push to April 6th top at 1.3919 mentioned above on the daily timeframe, with further outperformance to perhaps take aim at H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007.

H1 timeframe:

Friday swept through any offers around 1.38 on Friday and triggered buy-stops. Technicians will note that price formed a bearish outside reversal into the close, alongside RSI action testing a trendline support-turned resistance (taken from the low 27.61).

What’s also technically appealing on the H1 scale this week is the Fib cluster (resistance) around 1.3870.

Observed levels:

Long term:

Although the monthly trendline resistance breach in late 2020 promotes a long-term bullish vibe, traders will likely want to see 1.4376 taken out before committing.

Short term:

Over on the shorter-term charts, buyers face a potential ceiling on the H4 scale at trendline resistance and horizontal resistance at 1.3852. H1 also turns the headlights on a Fib cluster around 1.3870. Given this, between 1.3870 and 1.3840ish, sellers could make an entrance in early trading this week, perhaps zeroing in on the 1.38 figure on the H1.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – April 17th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.98% on Friday. Reversing a 0.46% gain from Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $61,322.0.

A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $63,520.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $64,027, Bitcoin slid to a late morning intraday low $60,005.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $62,182 and the second major support level at $61,169.

Finding afternoon support, Bitcoin broke back through the second major support level to revisit $62,000 levels before easing back.

In spite of the pullback, Bitcoin avoided a fall back through the second major support level late in the day.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact supported by the latest move through to $64,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Bitcoin Cash SV surged by 17.73% to lead the way, with Litecoin rallying by 7.89%.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% to lead the way down

Binance Coin (-6.15%), Cardano’s ADA (-4.51%), and Ethereum (-3.59%) also struggled.

Chainlink (-1.40%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.97%), and Polkadot (-1.84%) saw relatively modest losses on the day.

In the current week, the crypto total market fell to a Monday low $1,959bn before rising to a Friday high $2,307bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $2,177bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 56.61% before falling to a Friday low 51.50%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 52.59%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.25% to $61,167.3. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $61,675.0 before falling to a low $61,157.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV (-2.47%) and Crypto.com Coin (-0.64%) joined Bitcoin in the red to buck the early trend.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.09% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move back through the pivot level at $61,616 to bring the first major resistance level at $63,226 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $63,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s high $63,520.0 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at Wednesday’s swing hi $64,829.0 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $65,131.

Failure to move back through the $61,616 pivot would bring the first major support level at $59,711 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $58,101.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – April 17th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.59% on Friday. Reversing a 3.49% gain from Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,426.64.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high and a new swing hi $2,548.00 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $2,576, Ethereum slid to an early afternoon intraday low $2,307.21.

The extended sell-off saw Ethereum fall through the first major support level at $2,430 and the second major support level at $2,343.

Steering clear of sub-$2,300 levels, Ethereum broke back through the major support levels before a late pullback.

The pullback saw Ethereum fall back through the first major support level to end the day at $2,426 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 1.40% to $2,460.53. A bullish start to the day saw Ethereum rise from an early morning low $2,426.63 to a high $2,460.53.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall back through the pivot level at $2,427 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $2,547.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $2,500 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Friday’s new swing hi $2,548.00 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $2,700 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $2,668.

Failure to avoid a fall back through the $2,427 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,307 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$2,200 levels. The second major support level sits at $2,187.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,307

Pivot Level: $2,427

First Major Resistance Level: $2,547

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,976

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1,606

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,023

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 7.89% on Friday. Following on from a 2.67% gain from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $308.75.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $297.00 before hitting reverse.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $296 before sliding to an early afternoon intraday low $266.34.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $271 before rallying to a late intraday high and a new swing hi $319.94.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level and broke through the second major resistance level at $306.

A late pullback, however, saw Litecoin briefly fall back through the second major resistance level before wrapping up the day at $308 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 2.98% to $317.94. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rally from an early morning low $308.76 to a high $318.67.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $330.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s swing hi $319.94.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Litecoin could test resistance at $350 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $352.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $298 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the 23.6% FIB of $250. The second major support level sits at $245.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $277

Pivot Level: $298

First Major Resistance Level: $330

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $250

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $207

62% FIB Retracement Level: $138

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP slid by 11.92% on Friday. Following on from a 4.17% decline on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.54981.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.80892 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.8777, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late morning intraday low $1.42051.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.6468 and the second major support level at $1.5343.

Steering clear of sub-$1.40 levels, Ripple’s XRP revisited $1.75 levels before falling back into the deep red.

The sell-off saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the first major support level to end the day at sub-$1.60 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.86% to $1.56312. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $1.5390 before rising to a high $1.56443.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 170421 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to move through the $1.5931 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $1.7657 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from $1.75 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $1.80 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $2.00 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1.9815.

Failure to move through the $1.5941 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1.5426 and the first major support level at $1.3772 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$1.30 levels. The second major support level sits at $1.2047.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.3772

Pivot Level: $1.5931

First Major resistance Level: $1.7657

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1.5426

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.2807

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8573

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Gold And Silver Continue To Gain Value As Multiple Events Support Safe-Haven Assets

Rising geopolitical tensions, recent drops in the yield of 10-year Treasury notes, dollar weakness, a highly accommodative Federal Reserve and concern about the rising national debt all collectively moved gold and silver to multiweek highs.

The last time gold traded to $1784 occurred on February 25. On that date, gold opened above $1800 and closed at $1775. The last time gold closed above today’s highs occurred on February 22. This week gold opened at $1745 and gained approximately $30 based on today’s close.

june gold april 16

As of 4:30 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract is currently trading up $9.80 (+0.55%) and is fixed at $1776.60. Silver basis, the most active May 2021 Comex contract, is currently trading up $0.061 (+0.23%) and fixed at $26.025. This follows yesterday’s strong gains in both precious metals. Seeing as on Thursday, gold futures gained $28.10, and silver futures gained $0.40.

silver April 16

Dollar weakness provided mild tailwinds as the dollar index is currently fixed at 91.54. The dollar traded at 92.21 on Monday and lost 67 points on the week. The result is that the dollar index was devalued by -0.067% this week.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded lower this week and is now yielding approximately 1.56%. This week’s decline also provided solid tailwinds aiding the safe-haven asset class.

On Wednesday, April 14, Chairman Jerome Powell spoke virtually at the Economic Club of Washington DC. He addressed the concern that many economists have about the ever-growing national debt that has been created from fiscal stimulus as well as the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

In response to these concerns, Chairman Powell said that “The U.S. federal budget is on an unsustainable path, meaning simply that the debt is growing meaningfully faster than the economy. The current level of debt is very sustainable. And there’s no question of our ability to service and issue that debt for the foreseeable future.”

In addition to that there is rising tension between the United States and Russia. Yesterday President Joe Biden signed an executive order imposing new sanctions on Russia based on information suggesting that they had interfered with our election as well as an increased amount of Internet hacking and other “malign activities,” which include sending additional troops to Ukraine as well as the continuation of persecution of Russian dissidents in specifics to Alexei Navalny.

In response to these issues, the White House issued an “Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.” The full Executive Order can be read by following this link.

There is also increased tension with China. Today President Joe Biden met with the Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga. According to CNBC, “The two leaders will gather in Washington in what will be the U.S. president’s first in-person summit with a foreign leader since his January inauguration. The meeting comes as the U.S. seeks to challenge China on issues ranging from human rights to unfair trade practices.”

These events collectively have been the driving force moving both gold and silver to gain value this week. All things being equal, they could continue to drive gold back above $1800 per ounce and silver above $28 per ounce.

For more information on our service, simply use this link.

Wishing you, as always, good trading and good health,

Gary Wagner

 

NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rally Stopped Short of .7204 to .7266 Resistance Zone

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower late in the session on Friday as trader squared positions ahead of the weekend after driving the Forex pair into its highest level since March 22. The Kiwi was pressured during the session by a slight rebound in U.S. Treasury yields.

At 20:49 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .7143, down 0.0027 or -0.38%.

Daily NZD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7180 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6997 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A new minor top was formed at .7180.

The main range is .7465 to .6943. Its retracement zone at .7204 to .7266 is potential resistance. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the NZD/USD.

The short-term range is .7270 to .6943. The Forex pair is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .7145 to .7106. This is helping to generate a slight upside bias. It’s also potential support.

The major support is the retracement zone at .7027 to .6924. This zone stopped the selling at .6945 and .6943 on April 1 and March 25, respectively.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the NZD/USD into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7145.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7145 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the minor top at .7180. Taking out this level could extend the rally into the main retracement zone at .7204 to .7266. Look for sellers on the first test of this zone. Overcoming .7266 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7145 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session drop into the short-term 50% level at .7106. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Close Over 108.763 Forms Closing Price Reversal Bottom

The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly higher shortly before the close on Friday. The price action reflects the choppy trade in the U.S. Treasury bond market throughout the session.

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded on Friday after the 10-year rate slipped to 1.53% in the previous session. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.587% in afternoon trading. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 2.275%.

At 20:26 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 108.800, up 0.036 or +0.03%.

In U.S. economic news, housing starts jumped 19.4% month-over-month in March, according to the Commerce Department, while building permits rose 2.7%. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s consumer index rose in April to 86.5 from 84.9 a month prior.

Daily USD/JPY

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 108.407 will change the main trend to down. A move through 110.966 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 109.961 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The major support is the retracement zone at 108.230 to 107.154. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the USD/JPY.

The short-term range is 108.407 to 110.966. The Forex pair is trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 109.385 to 109.687. This zone is the nearest resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The USD/JPY is currently trading inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. The direction of the Forex pair into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 108.763.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 108.763 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough late session momentum then look for a spike into at least 109.385.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 108.763 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 108.407, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 108.230.

Side Notes

A close under 108.763 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Monday then look for the start of a 2 to 3 day rally into at least 109.385 – 109.687. The move will also shift momentum to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls in Front of Main Retracement Zone at .7770 – .7826

The Australian Dollar is trading lower late in the session on Friday as investors took profits ahead of the weekend after hitting its highest level since March 19 the previous session. The currency is also in a position to post a higher close for the week. The catalysts behind the Aussie’s strength were lower Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. Dollar, strong domestic labor market data and solid economic data from China.

At 20:00 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7732, down 0.0019 or -0.25%.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7761 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7586.

The main range is .8007 to .7532. Its retracement zone at .7770 to .7826 is potential resistance. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD.

The short-term range is .7849 to .7532. The Forex pair is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at .7728 to .7690. This is giving the Aussie a slight upside bias. It’s also potential support.

The minor range is .7532 to .7761. Its 50% level at .7646 is potential support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the AUD/USD into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at .7728.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7728 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible late session surge into .7761 to .7770. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold .7728 late in the session could trigger a break into the short-term 50% level at .7690. This is followed by the minor 50% level at .7646. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers on a pullback into this level. It represents value.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to $1788.50 Determines Near-Term Tone

Gold futures hit their highest level since February 25 on Friday, putting them in a position to post their best weekly performance since mid-December as a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields pressured the U.S. Dollar, lifting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.

At 18:09 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1779.10, down $12.30 or +0.70%.

Gold traders have put their faith in the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates at historically low levels until the economy makes a full recovery. Even if inflation does jump above 2% and holds there for several weeks or months, the Fed promises it has the tools to keep it from getting out of control.

Daily June Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A late session trade through the intraday high at $1784.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the nearest swing bottom at $1723.20.

Gold is currently trading within striking distance of a long-term 50% level at $1788.50. This level is potential resistance, but also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The first support is a 50% level at $1767.60, followed by additional 50% support levels at $1746.90 and $1731.00.

The major support is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.

Short-Term Outlook

The next major move in gold will be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $1788.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1788.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at $1817.60 over the near-term. This is the last potential resistance level before the February 10 main top at $1858.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1788.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a stair-step correction with potential support levels coming in at $1767.60, $1746.90 and $1731.00. Since the main trend is up, the best value level is $1731.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Predication – Prices Rise as Yield Drop for the Week

Gold prices continued to rally as the dollar moved lower and U.S. yields continued to decline. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped nearly 10-basis points this week. Consumer sentiment rose by less than expected while homebuilders surged to a 15-year high. The University of Michigan showed its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 86.5 from a final reading of 84.9 in March. Expectations are that the index would rise to 89.6.

Trade gold with FXTM

[fx-broker slug=fxtm]

Technical analysis

Gold prices continued to rally, pushing above resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,753, which is now seen as support. Target resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the February highs at 1,855. Short-term momentum reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 84, above the overbought trigger level of 86. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a short-term average is nearly in place.

U.S. Housing Starts Surged

U.S. Housing Starts surged to a 15-year high in March. Housing starts surged 19.4% to an annual rate of 1.739 million units last month, the highest level since June 2006. Expectations had been for Housing Start to rise to a rate of 1.613 million units in March.

Crude Oil Price Update – May Be Forming Potentially Bearish Closing Price Reversal Top

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower late in the session on Friday, but remained in a position to post a strong weekly gain. The market is being supported by signs of economic recovery in the United States and China and a stronger demand outlook from the IEA and OPEC. This week’s EIA inventories report also provided support, helping to offset concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in other major economies.

At 17:09 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $63.35, down $0.17 or -0.25%.

China’s first-quarter gross domestic product jumped 18.3% year on year, official data showed. That followed a big increase in U.S. retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims released Thursday.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher. The main trend will change to up on a move through $66.15.

A trade through $57.29 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the market is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $62.29 to $63.47. A failure to hold this area will form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

The new minor range is $57.29 to $63.94. Its 50% level at $60.61 is potential support.

The main range is $51.04 to $67.29. Its retracement zone at $59.17 to $57.25 is the best support. It’s controlling the near-term direction of the futures contract.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the market into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to $63.37.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $63.37 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking $63.47 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Taking out the intraday high at $63.94 could trigger a late session acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $63.37 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session break into $62.29. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the minor pivot at $60.61.

Side Notes

A close under $63.37 will form a closing price reversal top. This won’t change the main trend to down, but if confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with $60.61 the minimum downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Reach Towards Higher Levels

The S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of the week, as it looks like we are trying to reach towards the 4200 level. The 4200 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a certain amount of attention. With that being the case, I think that this is a market that will see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that given enough time we are probably trying to even break above the 4200 level.

S&P 500 Video 19.04.21

To the downside, it is obvious that the 4000 level is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to, as it is a market that pays close attention to these big figures and it is an area where we have broken out significantly. The 4000 level being broken as resistance should now be a support level. Underneath, the market should reach down to the 3800 as far as support is concerned. If we were to break down below the 3800 level, it is likely that I will be a buyer of puts, not necessarily shorting the market due to the fact that it is so heavily supported by the Federal Reserve and the liquidity measures that continue to be a major aspect.

You can see that the market has gotten a little bit overdone, but I think at this point any pullback will be thought of as a potential buying opportunity due to the fact that we are in such a huge uptrend. Pullbacks will be healthy, and therefore I think they should be encouraged as we have gotten a little overextended.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.