EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Running Into Familiar Resistance

The Euro has rallied significantly to kick off the trading session on Thursday but gave back enough of the gains to show signs of resistance yet again at the 1.19 level. Because of this, I think that we are going to be waiting on the Non-Farm Payroll figures for the bigger move, but it is very likely that the bigger move will be to the upside and perhaps reaching towards the 1.20 level.

In the meantime, short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities for those of you who are inclined to trade short-term charts. I believe that the 1.17 level is essentially acting as a bit of a “floor” in the market right now, so it may be worth paying attention to. A pullback to that area will represent quite a bit of value in people are most certainly going to be willing to take advantage of that.

EUR/USD Video 07.08.20

To the upside, I believe that we break above the 1.20 level as well but when you look at the trajectory of this rally, we clearly need to kill some time before trying to push too far to the upside as although this has been exacerbated by dollar longs being covered, the at the end of the day momentum can only last for so long. While I do believe in the uptrend and I have no interest in shorting, I also recognize that we are a bit stretched at these levels. Because of this, I would be very cautious here, but I do recognize that it is basically a question of whether or not you are flat, or long. Shorting is not even a thought.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Consolidating

The Aussie dollar was relatively quiet on Thursday as we await the Non-Farm Payrolls number on Friday. As we are sitting at the 0.72 level, it does make sense that we would see a little bit of a hesitation, as this area has caused resistance previously. Nonetheless, the sets up for a relatively straightforward trading environment if we get the correct move.

AUD/USD Video 07.08.20

On a pullback towards the 0.71 handle, or even just a bit below, I would be interested in buying the Australian dollar as it has shown itself to be rather supportive. Furthermore, it goes along with the massive trend that we have seen for some time. Regardless, you certainly cannot short this market due to the fact that the Aussie has been on fire and of course the Federal Reserve continues to devalue the US dollar in general, through monetary policy and loose financial actions. With that being the case, and perhaps the global economy trying to recover a bit quicker than some people thought, there is an argument to be made for the Australian dollar to rally.

When quite often overlooked factor is the commodity markets on the whole, and how hard commodities are doing, specifically metals. With copper, silver, and gold all doing very well, that clearly helps the Australians as they supply a lot of that to China. This does not even take into account the iron ore prices that have gone higher, nor does it look at the aluminum pricing. At this point, it looks like we will eventually go looking towards the 0.80 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for August 6, 2020

The Euro is edging lower against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday as risk appetite faded ahead of today’s U.S. weekly initial jobless claims report and as Washington policymakers remained unable to agree on a new financial aid package.

Risk appetite was boosted on Wednesday with ISM data from the Euro Zone showing the economy was starting to expand, and U.S. new service industry orders jumping to a record high.

At 12:12 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1842, down 0.0023 or -0.19%.

“Today’s jobless claims report will be closely watched:  should initial claims fail to re-enter a downward pattern, the dollar may be set for another leg lower,” wrote ING strategists. This could spike the EUR/USD higher. Today’s weekly unemployment claims report is expected to come in at 1410K versus last week’s 1434K, a slight improvement.

Meanwhile, investors continue to wait for lawmakers to agree on a new package of government support for the United States. With no sign of an agreement in sight, Republicans and Democrats remained trillions of dollars apart.

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but the early price action suggests a potentially bearish closing price reversal top may be forming. This won’t change the main trend to down, but it could shift momentum to the downside.

A trade through the intraday high at 1.1916 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend is safe for now. It will change on a trade through 1.1185. However, there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction of the more than month-long rally.

The minor trend is also up according to the daily swing chart. It changes to down on a trade through 1.1696.

The minor range is 1.1696 to 1.1916. Its 50% level at 1.1806 is potential support. However, it is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

The next support level and the first key downside target zone is 1.1644 to 1.1579.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1842, the direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1864.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1864 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a retest of 1.1916. Taking out this level could trigger a rally into the May 14, 2018 main top at 1.1998.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1864 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the pivot at 1.1806. If this level fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 1.1696.

A close under 1.1864 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Meets 1.19, USD/CAD Breaks 1.33 and GBP/JPY Aims Higher

Thursday starts with a continuation of the optimism on Gold and SP500. Traders seem in a good mood but in most of the instruments we do not have any spectacular movements. Do not worry though, as always, we managed to find the best three setups on the market today as well, they look really promising.

First one is the most popular instrument on the market – EURUSD. Today, the pair made new long-term highs and managed to test the psychological resistance on 1.19. This resistance looks pretty strong as another contact with this area ended with a very sharp reversal. It’s the third time that we are testing this resistance and the current bounce looks really promising for the sellers. EURUSD seems really overbought in the long-term, which can be a good occasion for a short-term downswing. In my opinion, as long as we stay below 1.19, the current sentiment is negative.

Now USDCAD, where the price managed to successfully break the 1.33 support. We can see that this area was extremely important since August 2019, so we can assume that this breakout is meaningful and traders should not ignore it. It is very common for the price to test the broken support as a resistance and currently that is the most probable option. The main sentiment remains negative though and will stay like this as long as the price will remain below the 1.33

I will finish with one of traders favorite pairs – GBPJPY, which attracts speculators thanks to its volatility. Here, the price broke the upper line of the descending triangle pattern, which gave us a buy signal. Overnight, the broken resistance was tested as a support and the price bounced higher. Today, we had tier-1 data from UK, which helped GBP to remain strong, so current highs are just a result for the technical and fundamental analysis working together. As long as we stay above the upper line of the triangle, the sentiment is positive.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Edges Up to Fresh Four-Month High Following BoE Decision

GBP/USD is nearing the 1.3200 level as the dollar once again came under pressure on Wednesday, despite better than expected PMI data out of the US.

The pair continues to carry a strong correlation with the equity markets with the S&P 500 trading at levels not seen since February.

The Bank of England announced its keeping interest rates unchanged and does not plan to raise them anytime soon. Policymakers unanimously agreed to continue forward with their bond purchase program, building towards their earlier target of 745 billion pounds in purchases.

The BoE expressed uncertainty regarding their economic outlook. They cautioned that their economic forecasts may not be as accurate as they normally would be. There are several variables when it comes to the Coronavirus that makes it more difficult to assess where the economy will go from here.

However, on balance, the BoE said that the economy has picked up and is headed in the right direction, based on looking at high-frequency indicators. Payments data has shown that spending has gone up, and reports last week indicated that the housing market has stabilized.

Inflation levels are expected to remain subdued, with a forecast of twelve-month CPI inflation hitting a quarter percent later this year.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD Daily Chart

GBP/USD is seen heading towards 1.3200 which is a possible first target. Beyond that, strong resistance is seen at 1.3262. This level has held the exchange rate lower, on a monthly chart, going back two years.

Immediate support the downside is seen near 1.3100 which marks the highest daily close from last week.

From a broader perspective, GBP/USD continues to show strong upward momentum and dips are likely to be bought. It might take a drop below the 1.3000 level to change the outlook for the pair.

The US Dollar is catching a bid from near last week’s lows which is something to be mindful of. While GBP/USD appears to be little impacted by the dollar bounce, some of the other major currencies are seen declining against the greenback in early trading on Thursday.

Bottom Line

  • GBP/USD is catching a strong bid following the Bank of England Meeting.
  • Major resistance is seen at 1.3260 for the pair.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Consolidates Near Prior Highs

The dollar initially looked like it was ready to continue dropping, in line with the trend we’ve been seeing since March. However, buyers have defended Friday’s low causing EUR/USD to hold below the 1.1900 level.

Economic data from Europe today has been fairly light. In the North American session, the US will release its latest unemployment claims figures.

New jobless claims had fallen for 15 straight weeks until last week when it rose slightly. Analysts expect the figure to hold steady at this point, and if that’s the case, the exchange rate is not likely to have much of a reaction.

The latest data from the CDC shows the rate of new daily cases rising for three consecutive days. However, the rise is marginal compared to before and still well below the peak.

The data showed new cases at 50 thousand on August 4th after peaking at 75 thousand on July 24th.

PMI figures from the US yesterday were better than expected with the non-manufacturing PMI at 58.1 and services at 50. Both are signalling growth which stands to underpin any extreme downside fluctuations in the dollar.

The ADP report showed 167 thousand new jobs added in the US during July. It was well below the expectation for 1.2 million jobs. There was, however, an upward revision to show a gain of 4.3 million jobs in June from the originally reported 2.4 million.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD 4-Hour Chart

EUR/USD appears to be holding in a range as the 1.1900 has once again proven to be a hurdle.

The dollar is attempting to recover and therefore the exchange rate might trade in a range below 1.1900 until this recovery has completed.

Dips in the pair should offer buying opportunities while EUR/USD holds above strong support seen at 1.1760.

A break above 1.1900 could lead to a run towards the 1.2000 level.

Bottom Line

  • EUR/USD showed signs of resuming higher in its bullish trend on Wednesday but sellers continue to defend the 1.1900 price point.
  • The latest unemployment claims data will be released from the US later in the day.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

BOE Economic Forecasts Could Sway Sterling

The Pound could react to the Bank of England’s outlook on the UK economy later today, depending on how far it deviates from market expectations.

The Pound has gained another 0.3 percent against the Greenback so far this month, adding to July’s 5.5 percent advance, which was the biggest monthly gain since the Global Financial Crisis. In fact, Sterling has posted a quarter-to-date advance against most of its G10 peers, except for the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone. Traders also appear content keeping GBPUSD in overbought territory for now, with its relative strength index well above the 70 line which denotes overbought conditions.

Such gains are rather uncanny, given the lingering threat of a no-deal Brexit by year-end, as well as market forecasts that the UK could adopt negative interest rates by February. Still, those are concerns with a longer runway, as investors are more preoccupied with the BOE’s verdict in just a few hours from now.

The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.1 percent, and maintain its asset-purchase programme at 745 billion Pounds. Perhaps more pertinent for investors today is the BOE‘s updated projections on growth and inflation, as well as any clues about potential policy tweaks.

Considering that the UK economy is struggling to break free from the coronavirus’s grip, a more downcast outlook should strengthen the case for additional monetary policy support. Keep in mind that, on the fiscal side, the UK government’s support measures for workers are set to expire in October. Pound bulls may feel uneasy at the threat of financial support being withdrawn at a time when the economy could still be struggling to stage its post-pandemic recovery. The notion that the economy will remain adequately supported is a necessary component to the Pound holding on to recent gains.

Markets will also be looking out for signs as to how much policymakers are open to lowering the benchmark interest rate into negative territory in order to help offset the economic pressures heaped on by the pandemic. More dovish signals surrounding the BOE’s policy outlook could see the Pound unwind some of its recent gains against the US Dollar.

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Oil Uptrend Should Continue Towards 44.35

Oil is pushing up strongly as new swings form. We have a zig zag to the upside, and fresh buyers might come soon.

41.40-41.73 is the POC. X Cross clearly marks the ATR projection low. With the confluence of X cross, W H3, ATR low, I assume this is where buyers are. Targets for the move are 42.27 followed by 42.85 and 43.45. Above 43.45 we should see 44.35, the final daily and weekly target. Oil is bullish and buying the dips continues.

The Analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.Core and Sit Systems

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Quick Rebound after Posting New Multi-Year Low

The U.S. Dollar hit another multi-year low against a basket of major currencies early Thursday before bouncing back to nearly unchanged on profit-taking and short-covering. The price action is essentially mirroring the movement in the heavily-weighted Euro.

The early price action suggests investors are jockeying for position ahead of today’s U.S. weekly unemployment claims report at 12:30 GMT. Initial claims are expected to come in at 1410K, slightly better than the previous week’s 1434K.

At 07:47 GMT, September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 92.735, down 0.115 or -0.12%. This is up from a low of 92.475.

In other news, Treasury yields fell ahead of the unemployment data and the Bank of England held rates steady while maintaining its current bond buying levels.

The dollar extended losses on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls growth slowed sharply in July, suggesting the labor market recovery was faltering.

Daily September U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out last Friday’s closing price reversal bottom at 92.510. The main trend will change to up on a move through the nearest main top at 97.810.

The minor trend is also down. The main trend will change to up when buyers take out 93.980. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 93.980 to 92.475. Its 50% level at 93.230 is potential resistance and a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

The short-term range is 96.380 to 92.475. If the minor trend changes to up then look for the rally to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 94.430 to 94.890.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The index continues to straddle a pair of former main bottoms at 92.820 and 92.580, however, the direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 92.850.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 92.850 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday low at 92.475. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with the next major target a long-term 50% level at 91.450.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 92.850 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the 50% level at 93.230. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 93.980.

A close over 92.850 will produce a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USDCAD Analysis – 06/08/2020

The clues of such an event have nothing to do with the economic situation and everything to do with the irrational tendencies of human nature.
The 1.3315 AREA is an important inflection point because it can lead to a failed low price formation. A failed low is when price goes proportionally lower than a previous low, but by a limited amount. The USDCAD is in such a location at the moment, even though bearish momentum continues. In order for us to justify taking risk in such a situation, we need to see a bullish reversal setup around the current level (1.3200s).
The reason why such a swing trade idea is attractive is because of the potential. It is proportionally within reason for this pair to revisit the 1.34 or 1.3500 areas within the next few weeks. As a short term momentum trader, all I am interested in is capitalizing on brief changes in momentum, no matter what the fundamentals or economists say.
In order to accomplish this, we measure extremes in sentiment as it expresses itself within price patterns. Right now the USDCAD is in such a high probability reversal location,  but we need a clear setup in order to effectively measure risk. Do not lose sight of the fact the current price action is part of a broad correction of the rally that lead to the April peak. Another compelling reason to anticipate a significant bullish retrace from current levels.
This article was written by Marc Principato CMT, Executive Director at Greenbridgeinvesting.com.

Bitcoin Bulls Breaks Ascending Wedge Chart Pattern

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is breaking above the bullish ascending wedge chart pattern. An uptrend continuation is again on track with short-term targets at 11,880 and 12,500.

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

BTC/USD 4 hour chart

The BTC/USD bullish burst to the upside after breaking the triangle (dotted purple) is a classical example of a wave 3. The choppy price action after the momentum up always respected the 21 ema zone (as the blue SWAT candles indicate). The bullish breakout is the expected price movement of the chart pattern. Price is now on its way to the -27.2% Fibonacci target at 11,880 but an extension is also possible.

If price action does build any type of pullback, then the support zone (dark green box) is a very strong area. Price is expected to stay above it and use the zone for a bullish bounce. Most likely, any retracement would be shallow and an uptrend continuation is expected. Only a massive and major reversal would invalidate (red x) the current bullishness.

BTC/USD 4 hour chart

Good trading,

Chris Svorcik

The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading). For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis –

The Australian Dollar is marginally higher on Thursday following a rally into an 18-month peak the previous session. The range is relatively tight and inside yesterday’s extremely wide price bar. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. Some negative domestic news is providing speculators with an excuse to book profits after yesterday’s generous gains.

At 06:53 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7196, up 0.0005 or +0.06%.

Aussie sentiment took a hit when Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison told a news conference the new lockdowns in Victoria state would cut around A$10-12 billion from national gross domestic product in the third quarter, or about 2.5 percentage points from growth.

Daily AUD/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7241 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through .7064.

The minor trend is also up. Taking out .7076 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is .7064 to .7241. Its retracement zone at .7152 to .7132 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of this area.

The main range is .6833 to .7241. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at .7037 to .6989 will become the main target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

With traders straddling yesterday’s close at .7192, the direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be decided by trader reaction to this level.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7192 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .7241. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into the January 31, 2019 main top at .7296.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7192 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the retracement zone at .7152 to .7132.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.3200 In Sight

GBP/USD Video 06.08.20.

Bank Of England Provides Additional Support To British Pound

GBP/USD has managed to settle above the resistance level at 1.3110 and continues its upside move as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to get below the nearest support level at 92.5. If these attempts are successful, U.S. dollar will likely gain additional downside momentum which would be bullish for GBP/USD.

Today, the Bank of England has announced its interest rate decision. The rate will stay unchanged at 0.1% while the size of the quantitative easing program will also remain intact at 745 billion pounds.

The Bank of England noted that housing market activity had returned to close to normal levels while spending activity had recovered significantly compared to the low levels that were reached back in April.

Importantly, the Bank of England concluded that the current stance of the monetary policy remained appropriate. These words will provide additional support to the British pound since they highlight that Bank of England is not ready to adopt negative interest rates.

Later today, the U.S. will release Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reports which may have a material impact on the dollar’s near-term trading dynamics.

Initial Jobless Claims are expected to stay mostly flat at 1.42 million while Continuing Jobless Claims are projected to drop from 17 million to 16.7 million.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd august 6 2020

GBP/USD has settled above the resistance at 1.3110 and is moving towards the next resistance level at 1.3200.

RSI is in the extremely overbought territory but GBP/USD maintains decent chances to continue the current upside move as the U.S. Dollar Index remains under significant pressure.

In case GBP/USD gets above 1.3200, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the next resistance level at 1.3290.

On the support side, the previous resistance level at 1.3110 will likely serve as the first support level for GBP/USD.

A move below this level will open the way to the test of the next material support level which is located at the recent lows at 1.2980.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

WW International Tumbles on Slim Earnings Miss

WW International, Inc. (WW) slumped nearly 8% Wednesday after the company formally known as Weight Watchers reported quarterly results that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

The firm disclosed second-quarter (Q2) adjusted earnings of 67 cents a share, missing analysts’ forecast of 72 cents a share. On the sales front, revenues for the period of $333.64 million came in 1.67% below consensus and declined from the year-ago figure of $369.02 million. Studio closures resulting from the health crisis weighed down the company’s top line.

Through Wednesday’s close, WW International stock has a market capitalization of $1.65 billion and is down 36.12% so far in 2020. However, over the past three months, the shares have recovered about 7%.

Adding Subscribers

The weight-loss program operator grew its subscriber base during the quarter by 23% to 5 million members thanks to a record level of digital subscribers. Moreover, management believes the transition to online fitness sessions will continue to benefit the company amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

“Creating exciting new coaching experiences, adding new digital features and producing creative content that is insightful, interactive and engaging will greatly increase our ability to attract new members to WW, retain them longer, help them achieve their weight loss and wellness goals, and deliver on our mission to democratize wellness for all,” the firm’s CEO Mindy Grossman said, per Barron’s.

Wall Street View

Riley Securities analyst Kara Anderson expects the company’s digital offerings to continue performing, given they meet consumers’ shift to online participation. The brokerage reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating after the Q2 result and bumped its price target to $36 from $30 – indicating a 47% gain from Wednesday’s $24.41 close. Elsewhere on Wall Street, the stock receives 6 ‘Buy’ recommendations, 1 ‘Overweight’ recommendation, and 6 ‘Hold’ recommendations. Currently, only one analyst has an “Underweight” rating on WW International shares.

Technical Outlook and Trading Tactics

Although the stock has trended steadily higher since plumbing its March low, it trades beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating price remains in a longer-term downtrend. Yesterday’s earnings-induced breakdown on above-average volume below a symmetrical triangle could drive further falls in the coming days. Those who want to buy the stock should look for entries between $17.50 and $20, where the shares find a zone of support from two key horizontal trendlines extending back over the past 12 months.

Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – August 6th, 2020

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.29% on Wednesday. Reversing a 1.54% decline from Tuesday, Litecoin ended the day at $58.97.

It was a mixed start to the day. Litecoin fell to an early morning intraday low $56.73 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $56.12, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $59.92.

Litecoin broke through the first major resistance level at $59.39 before falling back to end the day at $58 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.42% to $58.13. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $59.22 to a low $57.78.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early in the day.

LTC/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $58.54 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $60.35.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break back through to $60 levels.

Barring another crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $58.54 pivot would bring the first major support level at $57.16 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$55 levels. The second major support level at $55.35 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $57.16

First Major Resistance Level: $60.35

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $54

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $78

62% FIB Retracement Level: $104

Stellar’s Lumen

Stellar’s Lumen fell by 2.66% on Wednesday. Partially reversing a 5.51% rally from Tuesday, Stellar’s Lumen ended the day at $0.10760.

It was a bearish day. Stellar’s Lumen fell from an early morning intraday high $0.11134 to a late intraday low $0.10666.

Late in the day, the first major support level at $0.10670 limited the downside.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down by 0.65% to $0.10690. A mixed start to the day saw Stellar’s Lumen rise to an early morning high $0.10768 before falling to a low $0.10574.

Stellar’s Lumen tested the first major support level at $0.10573 early on.

XLM/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Stellar’s Lumen would need to move through the $0.10853 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.11041.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Stellar’s Lumen to break back through to $0.11 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high $0.11134 would likely limit any upside.

Failure to move through the $0.10853 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.10573 back into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Stellar’s Lumen should steer of sub-$0.10 levels. The second major support level at $0.10385 should limit any downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.10573

First Major Resistance Level: $0.11041

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.09960

38% FIB Retracement Level: $0.14336518

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.2050

Tron’s TRX

Tron’s TRX fell by 0.68% on Wednesday. Partially reversing a 2.35% gain from Tuesday, Tron’s TRX ended the day at $0.020309.

It was a mixed start to the day. Tron’s TRX fell to an early morning low $0.020112 before striking a late morning intraday high $0.020649.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.02072, Tron’s TRX slid to a late intraday low $0.019991.

Finding support at the first major support level at $0.01997, Tron’s TRX recovered to $0.020 levels to limit the loss.

At the time of writing, Tron’s TRX was down by 1.89% to $0.019926. A bearish start to the day saw Tron’s TRX fall from an early morning high $0.020316 to a low $0.019926.

Tron’s TRX fell through the first major support level at $0.01996 early on.

TRX/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the Day Ahead

Tron’s TRX would need to move through the first major support level and the $0.02034 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.02068.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Tron’s TRX to break back through to $0.020 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the first major support level would bring the second major support level at $0.01962 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Tron’s TRX should avoid a return to sub-$0.019 levels on the day. The third major support level sits at $0.01889.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.01996

First Major Resistance Level: $0.02068

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0322

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0452

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.0663

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

Thanks, Bob

EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – August 6th, 2020

EOS

EOS rose by 0.71% on Wednesday. Reversing a 0.53% decline from Tuesday, EOS ended the day at $3.0510.

A bearish start to the day saw EOS fall to an early morning intraday low $3.0015 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $2.9556, EOS rallied to a late afternoon intraday high $3.0986.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3.1055, EOS slid back to a low $3.0055 before finding late support.

A final hour move back through to $3.05 levels delivered the upside on the day.

At the time of writing, EOS was down by 0.16% to $3.0460. A mixed start to the day saw EOS rise to an early morning high $3.0670 before falling to a low $3.0447.

EOS left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

EOS/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

EOS would need to move through the $3.0504 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3.0992.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for EOS to break out from Wednesday’s high $3.0986.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Wednesday’s high would likely cap any upside.

Failure to move through the $3.0504 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3.0021 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, EOS should steer clear of the second major support level at $2.9533.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3.0021

Pivot Level: $3.0504

First Major Resistance Level: $3.0992

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $6.62

38% FIB Retracement Level: $9.76

62% FIB Retracement Level: $14.82

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 2.94% on Wednesday. Following on from a 0.92% gain from Tuesday, Ethereum ended the day at $401.21.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $383.86 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $379.11, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $408.00.

Ethereum broke through the first major resistance level at $402.08 before sliding back to sub-$400 levels.

Finding late support, however, Ethereum moved back through to $401 levels to end the day in the green.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.61% to $398.80. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $404.03 before falling to a low $398.13.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $397.69 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $411.52.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Wednesday’s high $408.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

A fall through the $397.69 pivot would bring the first major support level at $387.38 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$380 levels. The second major support level sits at $373.55.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $387.38

Pivot Level: $397.69

First Major Resistance Level: $411.52

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.38% on Wednesday. Following a 2.90% fall on Tuesday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.30239.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning intraday low $0.29086 before finding support.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2880, Ripple’s XRP rose to an early afternoon intraday high $0.30795.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.3157, Ripple’s XRP fell back to sub-$0.30 levels before finding late support.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 0.32% to $0.30141 A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning high $0.30353 before falling to a low $0.30070

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 06/08/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.3004 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.3099.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Wednesday’s high $0.30795.

Barring another broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level should cap any upside.

In the event of a breakout, the 23.6% FIB of 0.3134 and the second major resistance level at $0.3175 could come into play.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.3004 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2929 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should avoid sub-$0.29 levels, however. The second major support level sits at $0.2833.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2929

Pivot Level: $0.3004

First Major Resistance Level: $0.3099

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Continue to Rally Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved higher on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 31 Bcf build in natural gas inventories according to survey provider Estimize. The dollar moved lower which is helping to buoy natural gas prices. Since natural gas is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes it less expensive to purchase outside the US helping to buoy the price. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal for the next 2-weeks according to NOAA. There is one disturbance in the Atlantic which has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rose 0.9% on Wednesday but finished well of the session highs. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.94. Resistance is seen near the May highs at 2.50. Short-term momentum is flat to positive as the fast stochastic is poised to generate a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 94, above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Net Injections are Expected to Rise

The net injections into storage totaled 26 Bcf for the week ending July 24, which compares to this week’s estimate of 31 Bcf. This also compared with the five-year average net injections of 33 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 56 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,241 Bcf, which is 429 Bcf more than the five-year average and 626 Bcf more than last year at this time.

Gold Price Prediction – Prices Continue to Rally to New All-time Highs as the Dollar Slides

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday as the dollar moved lower. This followed a softer than expected ADP private payroll report. Despite the weak private jobs number that comes ahead of Friday’s US government employment report, US yields moved higher, rebounding slightly from the all-time lows that were hit on Tuesday.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices rose 0.87% on Wednesday and are now up 3% for the week after rising 3.5% during the prior week. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at $1,962. Short-term momentum is positive to neutral as the fast stochastic moved sideways and is poised to generate a crossover sell signal.  Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

 

US Private Payrolls Edge Higher

US private payrolls increasing by just 167,000, according to a report released on Wednesday by ADP and Macro-Economic Advisors. This was below the 1 million expected. Businesses with between 50 and 499 employees reported an outright decline of 25,000. Big business brought back 129,000 jobs while firms with fewer than 50 workers added just 63,000. All but 1,000 of the jobs came from the services sector, as professional and business services led with 58,000. Education and health services added 46,000 and trade, transportation and utilities contributed 41,000. On the goods-producing side, manufacturing added 10,000, but construction lost 8,000 and mining and natural resources fell by 1,000.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Gains Ground As Oil Breaks To New Highs

USD/CAD Video 05.08.20.

U.S. Dollar Index Is Testing Multi-Month Lows

USD/CAD declined towards 1.3250 as the U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against a broad basket of currencies while WTI oil rallied to new highs.

The U.S. Dollar Index remains under significant pressure and is currently trying to settle below 92.5. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar will likely gain additional downside momentum which would be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, the U.S. ADP Employment Change report showed that private sector added just 167,000 jobs in June. This was a major disappointment since analysts expected a gain of 1.5 million jobs.

The previous ADP Employment Change report received a major revision from 2.4 million to 4.3 million which helped cushion the negative impact of July numbers.

U.S. Services PMI increased from 47.9 in June to 50 in July compared to analyst consensus of 49.6. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

There are no reports about progress in coronavirus aid talks between Republicans and Democrats which may be putting additional pressure on the American currency.

Meanwhile, WTI oil has managed to get above the resistance level at $42.50 and gained more upside momentum after the recent crude inventory report showed that crude inventories declined by 7.4 million barrels. Stronger oil supports commodity-related currencies like the Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad august 5 2020

USD to CAD has managed to get below the support level at 1.3270 and continues its downside move.

The nearest support for USD to CAD is located at 1.3200. In case USD to CAD settles below this support level, it will head towards the next material support level at 1.3100.

RSI is not in the extremely oversold territory so there is plenty of room for USD to CAD to gain more downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for USD to CAD is located at the previous support level at 1.3270. In case USD to CAD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3330.

Currently, USD to CAD is in a downside trend which may get an additional boost in case the U.S. Dollar Index settles below 92.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Launch Even Higher

Silver markets continue to see a lot of buying pressure, as we are crossing the $27 level. That being said, the market looks very likely to find buyers on dips and quite frankly I am a bit surprised that we did not get more of a pullback in the market before rallying again. Ultimately, I think that silver goes looking towards the $30 level, and at this rate we could get there rather quickly. Obviously, pullbacks should offer value the people are willing to take advantage of, as the “FOMO” continues to be massive.

SILVER Video 06.08.20

I believe that the $23 level should offer massive support, and therefore it is very likely that there would be plenty of interest in that general vicinity. Unfortunately, this is a market that has been so parabolic that we could see a massive and quick pullback. When you see that, do not freak out, rather look for areas that you may be able to pick up silver “on the cheap.” Obviously, the trend is to the upside and there is no way to fight that and furthermore it is very unlikely that the trend changes anytime soon.

With that being the case, the market is likely to see plenty of opportunities if you are simply patient enough to take advantage of them. The $30 level will of course cause a significant amount of psychological resistance, so do not be surprised if the pullback from that level is somewhat stringent. However, I have no interest in trying to short this market regardless. With the Federal Reserve dumping US dollars into the system, Russia’s metals will continue to strengthen.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.