The EUR/USD rose for a while on Thursday, but started to pull back in the later hours as the markets continue to go back and forth around the world. The pair is still grinding lower overall, and we prefer selling until the pair can break above the top of the downtrend channel drawn on the chart. The 1.40 area giving way would be a massive sell signal, and we would then become very aggressive at that point in our selling. Any weakness near the 1.44 area, the recent highs, we will sell as well.
The EUR/CHF pair rose on Thursday as traders ran from the Franc due to a comment from SNB officials suggesting that a peg to the Euro might be a possible solution to the rapidly appreciating Franc. This spooked the Franc bulls, and the buying of this pair kicked off. The trend is down, and it remains so. This move is setting up as another pop in the pair that could be sold if we see bearish action. The 1.10 area is just above, and we are very interested in selling at that area if we get negative candles. We do not buy this pair under any circumstances.
The AUD/USD pair rose again on Thursday as the trading world continues its tug-o-war on a global scale. The AUD/USD caught a bid in a risk-seeking move, and we are presently at the top of the most recent consolidation area between the 1.04 and 1.01 areas. The pair has resistance just above at 1.05, and we feel that is the real fight to come. Because of this, we buy only on a daily close above that area. If not, we are willing to sell a break below parity if we get it on the close. In the meantime, it is a decent scalping pair as it continues to go back and forth.
EUR/USD continued its choppiness on Wednesday as the pair fell back to the 1.41 level again, and then promptly started to bounce back up again. The pair looks like what it truly is: a fight between two currencies most people don’t want to own. The consolidation area between 1.41 and 1.44 should continue to hold for a short time. Once we break either higher or lower – that will be your signal as to what direction you want to be trading in. In the meantime, it is a good market to scalp.
USD/JPY fell on Wednesday again, but managed to form a hammer, at the 77 support area. The pair is certainly being watched by the Bank of Japan, who has intervened recently and has been making statements about doing it again. Because of this, we won’t sell this pair anymore as the risk simply isn’t worth it. The pair rising past 77.50 would be enough for us to try a small long position.
GBP/USD fell on Wednesday, breaking below the 1.63 support area that had been the bottom of a recent rectangle pattern. We see this pair as being in two rectangles at the same time, with one being between 1.63 and 1.65, and the larger one being within the 1.60 and 1.65 levels. The pair will continue to be choppy, but with the unrest in England at the moment, as well as fears around the world in various markets – the USD is probably the stronger of the two currencies at the moment. Because of this, we look to sell any rallies now.
USD/CHF barely moved on Wednesday, even as the rest of the markets around the world fell apart. The pair was unusually quiet, and as such – we feel that a bounce could be coming. This would only be a selling opportunity of course, and the 0.75 level would be a great place to short from, but we will have to wait to see if this comes about. The breaking of the lows would be a selling opportunity as well, and we wouldn’t hesitate to take that signal. The market being this quiet certainly has us becoming more and more patient for the longer-term set up that surely will come soon.
EUR/CHF rose, and then fell on Wednesday as traders sold off the world’s stock markets in a fear that the banking crisis in Europe is getting worse. The pair has been falling for a very long time now, and as such – we still prefer selling rallies. The 1.05 level held on Wednesday, and we think it holds again if we get there. The real question is whether or not we get that chance again. The breaking of new lows would have us selling as well.
The AUD/USD pair fell again on Wednesday as the world shunned risk in the marketplaces. The pair has broken down below the 1.02 support level, and looks set to continue the move downward, although it must be said that the area is support, and a bounce could come. But you never see two plunges like this in such a short amount of time without there being some kind of truth to them. We are selling rallies in this pair, but won’t sell at the 1.02 area as we see a real fight brewing here.
USD/CAD rose on Wednesday as traders ran from anything even remotely risk related, and the CAD suffered as a result. It should be noted that we stopped at the 0.9920 level, and that since then, we are pulling back. The trend is down, and as such we feel this will still be a “sell the rally” pair until we close above parity. The pair looks set to consolidate between parity and 0.98 for a while, which this pair can do. It often consolidates in tight ranges, and then breaks hard in one direction or another. We still prefer selling when the set ups arrive. At the moment, it is a scalper’s market.
NZD/USD fell hard on Wednesday as the markets around the world fell. The pair most certainly has plenty of support in the .80 area, and a bounce could come there, but we are starting to see that it is a bullish market that seems easy to knock back down. Because of this, we are starting to consider selling all rallies. Our advice is to let this market finish out the week, and then look at our weekly video for possible clues to the future direction of this pair as it appears to be at a crossroads of sorts now.
EUR/USD rose as the Fed announced that it was keeping rates on hold until the middle of 2013. This sets up the USD for more weakness over time, but in the interim, the markets will continue to be nervous as there are so many unknown variables out there right now. The EUR/USD is still in the downward channel, and as such – we only sell at this point. If we can break the 1.45 level, we would have to reassess our opinion. We are looking for weak candles to sell at this point.
The USD/JPY pair managed to pierce the 77 level during Asian trading, but fears of an intervention took over the psyche of the markets as traders would not push the BoJ any harder. This is probably going to be a bit of a floor for the pair for a while, and as such – we will not sell. In fact, we are looking for supportive candles at this area to buy for a short-term trade.
The GBP/USD pair had an absolutely wild day on Tuesday as trader pushed and pulled the pair, only to end the day unchanged. The recent price action suggests that the cable is happiest between 1.65 and 1.62, and the price action on Tuesday does little to change that opinion. We think that this pair will be choppy for a while, and that the market will more than likely be a short-term trade scenario as we reach both of the above mentioned levels.
The USD/CHF pair fell hard on Tuesday, as the global markets have been out of control. The pair even went so low as to test 0.7050, and the trend is certainly intact after Tuesday’s action. However, we feel that the pair is oversold, and are looking for a rally to sell into in order to profit from the obvious downtrend. We are especially interested in selling near 0.75 if we get the chance.
The EUR/CHF pair continues to keep falling. The pair even went so far as to approach parity during the Tuesday session. We have long said this pair was going to parity, but are truly surprised at how fast this is happening. The pair is still “sell only”, but we expect a bounce at this point as it is simply oversold. We will wait at the 1.05 and 1.07 levels to see if we get a weak candle.
The AUD/USD pair had a wild day on Tuesday as traders first sold off the Aussie, and then returned to buy it up later in the session. The pair even went slightly below parity for a while during the Asian session, but popped back up as the markets began to rebound. By the time it was said and done, the pair travelled in a 500 pip range. The pair is heading right into the 1.05 area, which could be very resistive. We are happy to simply watch and wait until the pair decides this next hurdle before we get involved as the move has been far too volatile for safe trading.
The USD/CAD pair slammed into the parity level on Tuesday as traders sold off everything risk related. However, as the Asian markets stabilized we saw the risk trade put back on and as such, the Loonie was bought back up. Oil rose, and this always puts pressure on the Loonie – which is exactly what happened on Tuesday. We the trend is down and we suspect that although the 0.98 level might serve as some kind of support – this pair ultimately goes down again.
The NZD/USD pair fell, and then rose again as the market sentiment around the world changed wildly over the course of Tuesday. The pair eventually ended the day higher – and in fact had been in a 400 pip range. The 0.85 level just ahead could be resistance, and as such – we want the market to decide if it will hold before we place any new longs.
The EUR/USD pair fell on Monday, continuing the downward pressure that we have seen in this market for a while. The two purple lines on the chart point out how this pair has gradually fallen over the last several months. This pair is a “sell only” pair now, and as such we don’t buy. The idea of owning whatever issues going on in Europe is ridiculous. The pair may bounce, and if it does – we sell.