The pair looks like it is a little tired, but few traders are brave enough to test the SNB at the moment, and this could continue to keep this pair up in this area for a while. The 1.10 below should be supportive as well, and the 1.18 above has been support and resistance in the past as well, and could affect price as well when and if we get there. Either way, we feel the real signal will be based off of the weekly chart in the form of a large candle. At this point, we can only guess as to the direction as the market is being artificially propped up at the moment.
The 1.03 area is minor resistance, and we may see it hold. If it gives way however, we will see this pair test 1.01 and then parity before the move ends. Any bad news in a market like this can sell this pair off. We don’t sell yet – but we certainly don’t buy for the next 24 hours.
The EUR/USD had a bullish day to start with on Wednesday, but pulled back to form a bit of a shooting star at the top of the recent downtrend channel. It should also be noted that the 1.45 level proved to be too much as well. A daily close above the 1.45 level is our buying signal for a longer-term position.
With this failure, it becomes more likely that this pair falls. Quite frankly, if the USD wasn’t so hated, this pair would be in a free-fall. The breaking of the Wednesday lows is a massive sell signal down to the 1.41 or so. Until then, expect scalpers to be the main driving force of this market as it sits in a fairly tight range.
As the 76 handle gives way, one thinks that the risk of intervention goes way up. Because of this, we can only buy this pair, but there is absolutely no technical sign to do so currently. Unfortunately, this pair is almost untouchable because of all of the uncertainty – just the way the BoJ wants it.
The 1.65 level has been broken, and more importantly held above that level. Because of this, we see the pair attempting a move to 1.68 before it runs into the massive 1.68 to 1.70 resistance level. The breaking to the upside of the Wednesday candle is a buy signal in our opinion. 1.65 should prove to be support. If it gives way – this pair falls.
The technical analysis says that the 0.80 should hold if there is going to be a sell off. ).83 would be the next resistance area if that level gets overtaken. The candle for Wednesday represents confusion more than anything at this point. In the meantime, we are simply observing.
We think the 1.15 area should be rather resistive, and would be willing to sell on weakness at this level, but we are not seeing it currently. 1.20 would be the next possible selling opportunity in this pair. With all of the problems in Europe, one feels it is only a matter of time before this pairs starts to fall, overwhelming the Swiss National Bank yet again.
The AUD/USD pair rose above the 1.05 level, and managed to hold above that level on Wednesday. The pair now looks set to try and reach the 1.0750 level as the gold market is strong, and the USD is weak in general. The pair is now becoming a bit of a “buy on the pullbacks” type of currency pair again, and as such – we will trade it that way.
A break below 1.05 could get buyers to come back in, especially at the 1.02 level which should be support. Parity is important as well – naturally. The fundamentals in AUD are firmly tied to China as it supplies that country with a lot of its raw materials, and as long as China remains bullish – so does Australia.
The USD/CAD pair fell below the all-important 0.98 level on Wednesday, only to bounce back up and above it. The resulting candle looks a lot like a hammer and as such, we think this pair could consolidate in the 0.98 to 0.99 level yet again. The oil markets are vital to this pair, and they are going to have to overtake the $90 level in the CL contract in order to push this pair lower.
However, we should note that the trend is certainly down, and a bounce from here has a long way to go before that changes. Because of this, we like selling on a close below 0.98 or a failure to break above parity.
The NZD/USD pair rose on Wednesday, but managed to fall slightly at the end of the session. The pair is decidedly bullish, and it appears we could be building a bit of a base between 0.80 and 0.83 from which to launch the next bullish move. However, is also should be said that the pair looks like it might take a while to do this.
The NZD/USD has a long history of going nowhere for a long period of time, and then exploding in one direction or another. This is because the market for the Kiwi is relatively small, and as such – the moves become a bit more explosive. We recommend buying on the dips in anticipation of a large move to the upside.
The pair still looks like it wants to break to the upside as it fell on Tuesday, only to rise again to form a hammer. The breaking of the 1.45 level on a daily chart confirms that we are header much higher. Otherwise, a break of the low on Tuesday sends this pair back towards 1.40 or so.
The USD/CHF pair had a bullish day on Tuesday as session saw a retest of the bullishness on Monday. The Swiss National Bank is set to make an announcement on Wednesday as to their intentions to devalue the Franc. This has the markets on edge, and traders are simply not willing to buy the Franc because of this. The truth is that this pair needed a pullback from the massive downtrend, and this move makes a lot of sense. Of course, the announcement on Wednesday will be crucial, so any positions before seeing that and more importantly the reaction – would be foolish as this is likely to rock the markets back and forth.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to announce measures to stem the rise of the Franc against the Euro (and other currencies) on Wednesday, and as such – we think this market will be very volatile and dangerous during the Wednesday session. If the announcement is made, and the pair cannot rally above 1.15 for any significant amount of time – this becomes a screaming sell. If it does rise above that level – the pair is best left alone in our opinion.
The AUD/USD pair fell on Tuesday as the markets in general did, but then found a bid late in the day to form a bit of a hammer. Although it is at the top of the recent range, the candle means the same thing – potential bullishness. One of two things can happen here: Either the candle breaks to the upside, and we see that as a bullish move up to about 1.0750 or so, or we get a break to the downside, making that candle a “hanging man”, a very bearish signal indeed. The trend is up, so knowing that – you know which direction is more likely. However, waiting until one of the ends of the candle gets broken is the wise thing to do.
The USD/CAD pair initially rose during the Tuesday session, but then fell to form a shooting star of sorts just above the 0.98 level. This crucial support level needs to give way for this candle to be a confirmed sell signal, but the trend is in that direction so one has to like the odds. However, we are waiting to see if the pair can close below that level on the 4 hour chart before committing to new shorts. Buying isn’t an option until we break well above parity at this point. Watching oil markets will be crucial as it will more than likely be the catalyst to push this pair. If oil rises, the CAD will strengthen, driving this pair lower.
NZD/USD had a slightly confusing day on Tuesday as traders shunned risk for a large part of the session. However, the pair did manage a bounce in the latter hours to form a hammer. This is the second one in a row from the minor area at 0.83, and this could signal further strength ahead – at least until we see 0.85, which is the next major resistance area. We are buyers on a break of the Monday and Tuesday highs. We don’t sell this pair as the Kiwi has been far too bullish lately.
The EUR/USD pair continues to rise on Monday as the possibility of a bullish flag being formed is still contemplated. The flag look like the final target would be as high as 1.65, based upon the “pole” of the pattern. Also, there is the possibility that we are not in a flag pattern, but rather a downward channel. Either way, this pair will be beholden to the Tuesday meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel. The reaction to that meeting could be the key for the destination for the pair in the long-term. If the EU cannot come to some kind of solution to the debt crisis, this pair will sink like a stone. In the meantime, the top of the flag is roughly 1.45, and if we can close above that level on the daily chart, we will be long this pair for several weeks if not months or years. Tuesday really could be that important. A failure to come to terms will be a simple sell and watch it fall scenario. In the interim, we are sitting still in this pair.