E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Megacap Growth Stocks Post Impressive Gains

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market close on Tuesday as the tech-heavy index tries to recover from its bear market.

Semiconductor stocks are a few of the best performers. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices jumped more than 8% following an upgrade from Piper Sandler, which said the stock looked attractive after falling 34.5% this year. Nvidia’s stock price rose 5%, Qualcomm jumped 4% and Micron Technology rose nearly 6%.

At 19:55 GM%, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12541.00, up 296.25 or +2.42%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is trading $306.00, up $7.56 or +2.53%.

Other top performers were Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, and Tesla Inc which gained between 1.5% and 4.8%, providing the biggest boost to the NASDAQ Composite.

In economic news, retail sales numbers came in about as expected. Consumer spending on retail rose 0.9% in April, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.6% in April.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up, while a move through 11689.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend turned up when buyers took out the previous minor top at 12553.25. This shifted momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 13555.25 to 11689.00. Its pivot at 12622.25 is the first upside target.

The short-term range is 14298.00 to 11689.00. Its retracement zone at 12993.50 to 13301.50 is the next target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 12622.25 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12622.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger into the close. This would put the index in a position to open higher on Wednesday and possibly lead to an early test of 12993.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12622.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates some late session pressure then look for an early pullback on Wednesday into the pivot at 12133.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 12622.25, Weakens Under 12121.00

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower during the pre-market session on Monday, after oil prices slid and riskier currencies took a hit during the Asian and European sessions as unexpectedly weak economic data from China highlighted fears about a slowdown in growth.

At 09:11 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12341.00, down 41.75 or -0.34%. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) settled at $301.89, up $10.74 or +3.69%.

China’s April retail sales plunged 11.1% on the year, almost twice the fall forecast, as full or partial COVID-19 lockdowns were imposed in dozens of cities. Industrial output dropped 2.9% when analysts had looked for a slight increase.

NASDAQ component earnings highlights this week include Take-Two Interactive Software on Monday, Cisco Systems and Analog Devices on Wednesday, and Applied Materials on Thursday.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 11689.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 12553.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The major support is a long-term 50% level at 11671.25. This is followed by a long-term Fibonacci level at 10468.25.

The first minor range is 12553.25 to 11689.00. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 12121.00, making it support.

The second minor range is 13555.25 to 11689.00. Its pivot at 12622.25 is the next upside target and potential resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 12121.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12121.25 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers.

If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at 12553.25, followed by the second pivot at 12622.25.

Sellers could come in on the first test of this level, but overtaking it with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12121.00 will signal the return of sellers.

If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 11689.00, followed by the major 50% level at 11671.25.

The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the November 2, 2020 main bottom at 10913.75 the next major target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Late Session Surge Puts 12622.25 Pivot on the Radar

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher late in the session on Friday, putting the tech-weighted index in a position to close on a positive note, but still lower for the week. The price action throughout the period was tumultuous with volatility fueled by wild gyrations amid signs of peaking inflation and worries that the Federal Reserve might tighten policy too aggressively.

Rebounding megacap tech and tech-adjacent growth stocks led the market higher. These shares drove the major indices to record highs when interest rates were straddling historical lows and Fed monetary policy accommodative during the pandemic, but they have been crushed for several months.

In stock-related news, shares of Twitter Inc dropped 9.8% following Elon Musk’s tweet that he had put the $44 billion cash buyout deal on hold, as he waits for the social media company to provide data on fake accounts. Meanwhile, Tesla Inc jumped 4.9%.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 11689.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 12553.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

On the downside, the major support is the long-term retracement zone at 11671.25 to 10468.25.

On the upside, the first target and potential resistance is a pivot at 12622.25.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the market into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 12060.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12060.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough late session momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at 12553.25, followed by the pivot at 12622.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12060.50 will signal the return of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 11689.00, followed by the long-term 50% level at 11671.25.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Showing Early Signs of Closing Price Reversal Bottom

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher in the pre-market session on Tuesday after touching its lowest level since February 2021. Although it’s early, the price action suggests the buying may be greater than the selling at current price levels, putting the index in a position to post a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

At 07:20 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12376.00, up 182.25 or +1.49%. This is up from an intraday low of 12102.25. On Monday, the Invesco QQQ Trust settled at $297.21, down $12.04 or -3.89%.

The early weakness was a continuation of the sell-off from the previous session. That move came as inflation fears continued to hit markets on all sides. On Monday, shares of Meta Platforms and Alphabet fell 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Shares for Tesla dropped more than 9%.

Looking ahead, Peloton Interactive is set to report earnings before the bell. Coinbase, Roblox, RealReal and Allbirds are expected to report earnings on Tuesday after the market close.

Meanwhile, the volatility could continue as investors prepare for the release of Wednesday’s major U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 12102.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 13555.25 to 12102.25. Its pivot at 12828.75 is the nearest upside target. This is followed by a short-term retracement zone at 13685.50 to 14059.25.

On the downside, the major target is the long-term retracement zone at 11671.25 to 10468.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 12193.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12193.75 will indicate the presence of aggressive countertrend buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the move to continue into the pivot at 12828.75.

Since the trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of 12828.75. Overtaking it, however, could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 13555.25 a potential target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12193.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the intraday low at 12102.75. An aggressive move through this level could trigger an acceleration into the long-term 50% level at 11671.25.

Side Notes:  A close over 12193.75 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2-day countertrend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 in Position to Post Fifth Straight Weekly Loss

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower late Friday, but up off its lowest level since 2020. The tech-weighted index is also in a position to post its fifth straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since the fourth quarter of 2012. Megacap growth stocks led the index lower, with a few exceptions including Apple Inc, which rose 0.5%.

At 20:00 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 12654.75, down 203.25, down 1.58%. At the cash market close, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) was trading $309.40, down $3.60 or -1.15%.

Although investors were mostly focused on the direction of U.S. interest rates, there was some U.S. economic news. The Labor Department presented stronger-than-expected jobs data with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 428,000 jobs in April, versus expectations of 391,000 job additions, underscoring the economy’s strong fundamentals despite a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% in the month, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% against a forecast of a 0.4% rise. This figure was disappointing because it shows that wage growth is not keeping up with inflation.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 12519.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 13555.25 to 12519.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 13037.25 is the nearest resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 12858.00

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12858.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 12519.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This would put the index on a path toward the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12719.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12858.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a late session surge into the pivot at 13037.25.

Side Notes

A close over 12858.00 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum two-day counter-trend rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index: Steep Sell-off Puts 12179.50 on Radar

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are down sharply late in the session on Thursday, completely erasing a rally from the prior session in a stunning reversal that deepened the market’s losses for 2022. The move came after a major rally for stocks on Wednesday with the NASDAQ Composite cash index jumping 3.19%.

At 19:19 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12738.75, down 792.50 or -5.86%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $310.52, down $19.08 or -5.79%.

The catalyst behind the sell-off was investor worries about whether the Federal Reserve’s rate hike might not be enough to bring inflation under control, forcing the Fed to become more aggressive.

Large tech stocks were under pressure, with Facebook-parent Meta Platforms and Amazon falling 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Microsoft dropped 4.7%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 12709.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 13583.75 to 12709.75. The market is currently trading below its pivot at 13146.75, making it the nearest resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 13146.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13146.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a test of the main bottom at 12709.75.

Taking out 12709.75 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12179.50 the next major target.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking the pivot at 13146.75 late in the session will signal the return of buyers. This could lead to a surge into 13555.25 to 13583.75. Taking out this area could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 13989.25 the next major upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Dragged Lower by Amazon Weakness, Rate Hike Worries

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower at the mid-session on Monday on volatile trading. For a second session, prices are being dragged down by Amazon.com. The bearish price action indicates investors are focusing squarely on the two-day Federal Reserve meeting where policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates.

At 17:13 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading $312.07, down $1.18 or -0.38%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $312.07, down $1.18 or -0.38%.

Amazon.com slid 3.2%, adding to a 14% drop on Friday after a gloomy quarterly report. Apple dipped 1.3% as the iPhone maker faced a possible hefty fine after EU antitrust regulators charged it with restricting rivals’ access to its technology used for mobile wallets.

However, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms climbed 2.8% after falling 9.8% last month, while Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia rose between 0.5% and 1.5% after sharp declines in April.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A move through 14298.00 will change the main trend to up. A trade through the intraday low at 12742.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This will put the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12179.50 on the radar.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 13583.75 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 13583.75 to 12742.75. Its pivot at 13163.25 is the nearest resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 12852.00 will determine the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Monday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12852.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 12742.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into 12179.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12852.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the pivot at 13163.25. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with 13583.75 the next key resistance.

The chart pattern suggests the minor top at 13583.75 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index Continues Slide Amid Search for Value

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are lower shortly after the cash market close on Friday as disappointing forecasts from Amazon and Apple pushed the technology-weighted index toward sharp monthly declines, with the biggest surge in monthly inflation since 2005 adding to investor worries.

At 20:05 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12837.75, down 617.00 or -4.59%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $313.24, down $14.77 or -4.50%.

Amazon, Apple Weakness Weigh on Index

Amazon.com Inc slumped 11.9% to a near two-year low as higher costs hurt first-quarter results and the e-commerce giant said it expects to lose as much as $1 billion in operating income this quarter.

Apple Inc, the world’s most valuable company, slipped 0.1% after its glum outlook overshadowed record quarterly profit and sales.

US Economic News

Data showed the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, shot up 0.9% in March – the largest gain since 2005 – after climbing 0.5% in February.

Another Double-Digit Monthly Loss

The NASDAQ is down over 10% in April, putting it in course to match double-digit monthly losses last seen during the height of the pandemic-led selloff in March 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008.

Disappointing results and worries about aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have hammered megacap technology and growth stocks throughout the month.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 12801.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 14298.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 13583.75 will change the main trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

Short-Term Outlook

The index seems to have enough downside momentum to challenge the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12179.50. It also looks like we’re not even close to bottoming. We could continue to see short-term retracements, but don’t expect a lengthy rally until a solid support base is built. By my calculations, buyers haven’t even started the process yet.

Looking at the chart and comparing the current price to a support level in the past isn’t working at this time. For years investors did that, but that was when interest rates were near zero. You didn’t have to be an expert or a guru to pick winning stocks. Now you have to actually think about what you’re doing and which stocks you are picking.

Now the process has changed. Smart money is getting out because no one really knows what value is during a rising interest rate environment. Once they determine value then the smart buyers will return. Until then, look for more downside pressure and the selling of rallies.

First it was Facebook (Meta), now Amazon. Too many investors were in these two stocks plus the other FAANG stocks. Time to spread the money around instead of going with the herd and chasing momentum stocks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100: Trade Through 13583.75 Changes Minor Trend to Up

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the mid-session on Thursday as investors rode the wave created by strong earnings from Meta Platforms. The momentum spread to battered technology and growth stocks, which offset worries about a contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter.

At 18:04 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13399.75, up 390.75 or +3.00%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $327.55, up $10.79 or +3.41%.

Stock-Related News

The Facebook parent rose 14.3% after it reported a stronger-than-expected profit and the social-networking site eked out user growth.

Apple Inc, the world’s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc both rose more than 2% ahead of their earnings later in the day.

US Economic News

A U.S. Commerce Department report showed gross domestic product fell at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, after clocking 6.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy growing at a 1.1% rate.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 12801.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 14298.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 13583.75 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift the momentum to up.

The minor range is 13583.75 to 12801.50. It is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 13192.50, making it support.

The short-term range is 15268.75 to 12801.50. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 14035.25 to 14326.25 will become the next upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to 13192.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13192.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the minor top at 13583.75. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up and could create the momentum needed to challenge the short-term 50% level at 14035.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13192.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of this week’s low at 12801.50. If this price fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12179.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

NASDAQ-100 Index Plunges to New Low for Year

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading sharply lower just ahead of the cash market close on Tuesday. The price action reflects concerns about slowing global growth and a more aggressive Federal Reserve. Investors are also nervous ahead of quarterly reports from Alphabet and Microsoft, due to be released after the bell.

At 19:57 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13028.75, down 507.00 or -3.75%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is trading $317.57, down $12.01 or -3.64%.

Stock-Related News

Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp each dropped 2.8% ahead of their results after the closing bell. Apple, Wall Street’s most valuable company, fell 2.5% ahead of its report on Thursday.

Tesla, another technology stock, slumped almost 11%, with investors worried that chief executive Elon Musk might sell some of this stake in the electric car maker to help pay for his $44 billion deal to buy Twitter, announced on Monday.

Other News

Data showed U.S. consumer confidence edge lower in April, though households planned to buy automobiles and many appliances, which should help underpin consumer spending in the second quarter. The report had little impact on the stock market.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 12942.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 14298.00 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 13583.75 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

Daily Forecast

The late session break through the March 15 main bottom at 12942.50 has put the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12179.50 on the radar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100: Trying to Form Bullish Reversal Bottom

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are lower at the mid-session on Monday, but attempting to claw back some of its earlier losses. The tech-weighted index extended its sharp selloff from last week as fears over China’s COVID-19 outbreaks spooked investors already worried about faster U.S. interest rate hikes denting economic growth.

At 17:20 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13384.50, up 31.00 or +0.23%. This is up from an earlier low of 13184.00. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at $326.15, up $0.75 or +0.23%.

In earnings related news, investors were also on edge at the start of a week that will see megacap companies like Google-parent Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc and Apple Inc publish quarterly results.

In M&A news, Twitter Inc rose 3.9% after sources told Reuters it was set to accept Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk’s ‘best and final’ offer of $54.20 per share in cash.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 13184.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 14298.00 will change the main trend to up.

The short-term range is 12942.50 to 15268.75. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 13831.25 to 14105.75, making it resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to 13353.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13353.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 13184.00 will be a sign of weakness. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the March 15 main bottom at 12942.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13353.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a late session surge into the short-term retracement zone at 13831.25 – 14105.75.

Side Notes

A close over 13353.50 will produce a daily closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day corrective rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASD-100: Sellers Targeting March Bottom at 12942.50

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are down sharply shortly before the close on Friday with the tech-heavy index in a position to post its third straight week of losses. Sellers were pounding technology stocks on increased certainty around aggressive near-term interest rate hikes and general concerns ahead of Big Tech earnings next week.

At 17:55 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 13442.00, down 286.25 or -2.09%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is at 325.41, down 8.74 or -2.62%.

Weak Outlook for Tech Shares Ahead of Major Earnings Reports

The prospect of a more hawkish Fed has led to a rocky start to the year for the tech-weighted NASDAQ Composite. The trend is more pronounced in tech and growth shares whose valuations are more vulnerable to rising bond yields. The NASDAQ is down 17.9% in 2022.

Earnings are due next week for the four biggest U.S. companies by market capitalization:  Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 14298.00 will change the main trend to down. A move through the intraday low at 13435.75 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The short-term range is 12942.50 to 15268.75. The index is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 13831.25 to 14105.75, making it resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 13728.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13728.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 13435.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for an acceleration to the downside with 12942.50 the next major downside target.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking 13728.25 will signal the return of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the short-term retracement zone at 13831.25 to 14105.75. This is the last potential resistance before the 14298.00 main top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASD-100: Still Testing Short-Term Retracement Zone

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are edging higher early Thursday after posting a lower-close the previous session. The tech-heavy index fell on Wednesday as streaming giant Netflix slumped after shedding subscribers for the first time in a decade, stoking worries among investors about their bets on high-growth companies set to report results.

At 03:10 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14106.75, up 102.00 or +0.73%. On Wednesday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $341.05, down $5.21 or -1.50%.

In stock-related news, Netflix Inc plunged 36.6% and was set for its worst day since October 2004, as it blamed inflation, the Ukraine war and fierce competition for the subscriber loss and predicted deeper losses ahead, Reuters reported.

Megacap stocks including Amazon.com Inc, Tesla and Meta Platforms Inc fell between 2.3% and 5.3%, while streaming peers Walt Disney, Roku and Warner Bros Discovery dropped between 4.5% and 8.3%, according to Reuters.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on April 18.

A trade through 15198.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 13729.50 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. It changed to up on Wednesday when buyers took out 14296.25. This confirmed the shift in momentum.

The short-term range is 12942.50 to 15268.75. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 14105.75 to 13831.00. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The minor range is 15198.00 to 13729.50. Its 50% level at 14539.75 is the nearest resistance.

The main range is 16700.00 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14821.25 to 15264.75 is the major resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14105.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14105.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 14298.00. Taking out this level could trigger a surge into 14539.75. This is followed by another minor top at 14642.25 and the main 50% level at 14821.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14105.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term Fibonacci level at 13831.00, followed by the main bottom at 13729.50.

A trade through 13729.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. It could also trigger the start of an acceleration to the downside with 12942.50 the next major target price.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index Ready to Test 14821.25 – 15264.64

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading flat in the pre-market session on Wednesday as investors continue to digest the Fed’s latest assessment on inflation and interest rates.

Last week, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and forecast a plan to hike rates by a quarter point at each of the remaining six meetings of 2022. But on Monday, Fed Chair Powell ramped up the rhetoric even more, promising to take tough action on inflation.

At 07:23 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 14649.00, down 5.00 or -0.03%. On Tuesday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $356.96, up $6.88 or +1.97%.

Investors don’t seem to be too concerned about surging bond yields, a hawkish Fed and an intensifying war between Russia and Ukraine. Value may be the key price driver since technology shares were relatively cheap last week with the index hitting its lowest level since May 2021.

Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Alphabet Inc and Tesla Inc gave the biggest boosts to the NASDAQ Composite on Tuesday.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through Tuesday’s high at 14690.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 12942.50 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 15261.25 to 12942.50. The market is trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at 14375.50 to 14101.75, making it support.

The main range is 16700.00 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14821.25 to 15264.75 is the next objective.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14654.00

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14654.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 14690.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the main 50% level at 14821.25.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 14821.25, but overcoming it could trigger an acceleration into the main Fibonacci level at 15264.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14654.00 will signal the presence of sellers. It won’t change the main trend to down, but could trigger the start of a 2-3 day correction with a series of targets lined up at 14375.50, 14101.75 and 13816.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

E-mini NASDAQ-100: Strong Over 14375.50, Weak Under 14101.75

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are lower in the pre-market trade on Monday after failing to follow-through to the upside following last week’s stellar gains. During the week-ending March 18, the technology-driven NASDAQ Composite spiked over 8.0%.

The index surged last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25-basis points then signaled it expects to raise rates at its remaining six meetings this year. The rate hike was expected, but the number of additional hikes was not. However, investors appreciated the clarity from the central bankers.

At 07:55 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 14346.25, down 67.25 or -0.47%. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $351.42, up $6.98 or +2.03%.

In stock-related news, Nike and Tencent Music report quarterly results on Monday.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 14442.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 12942.50 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 15261.25 to 12942.50. The index is testing the upper level of its retracement zone at 14101.75 to 14375.50.

The main range is 16700.00 to 12942.50. Its retracement zone at 14821.25 to 15264.75 is the primary upside target.

The new minor range is 12942.50 to 14442.75. Its 50% level or pivot is 13692.50. This level will move up if buyers take out 14442.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 14375.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 14375.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at 14665.00, followed by the long-term 50% level at 14821.25. Look for sellers to return on the first test of this level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 14375.50 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the short-term 50% level at 14101.75.

Buyers could come in on the first test of 14101.75. If it fails, however, then look for a possible acceleration into the minor pivot at 13692.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

How To Use ETFs like TQQQ, SQQQ, QLD and QYLD during Volatile Times for Tech (QQQ)

For those who are still wondering about the reason for the fall of the mighty Nasdaq Composite Index, the chart below says it all. It basically shows the shares of the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index going steeply down as from January 3 with the fall coinciding with the rise of the 10-year treasury interest rate, which climbed to the 1.69% mark, a level not reached till January 24, 2020, or nearly two years back.

Looking back in hindsight, the volatility was already evident from the second half of 2021, as a result of QQQ (in blue) being inversely correlated to the 10-year rates in Orange.

Source: Initial charts obtained from Ycharts.com

Now, tech did stage a rebound on Wednesday with QQQ up by nearly 2.75% during the day, but the gains fizzled out after the Federal Reserve said it is likely to hike interest rates in March and reaffirmed plans to end bond purchases. There is also an indication that inflation risks are still present, as the U.S. central bank chief also mentioned the battle to tame inflation will have to be a sustained one.

Making sense of this new market regime

Now, inflation, especially high-inflation with the U.S. CPI (Consumer price index) at record highs is an issue for the whole economy, but more for tech stocks which normally exhibit higher growth but carry higher valuations as well. Thus, they are expected to deliver faster profit growth in the future to justify their high price to earnings multiples. This is in contrast to more “value” stocks coming mainly from the consumer staples sector possessing more pricing power to better face periods of inflationary pressure.

Still, during periods of high volatility as on Wednesday, QQQ, with its tech-heavy names ended the day in the green, slightly up at 0.08% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average which includes the more traditional sectors of the economy like cyclical more likely to benefit from the economic recovery, lost 0.38%.

Now, while some analysts think that it is too early to buy the dip, others at Goldman Sachs (GS) say that some tech sectors like semiconductors have been unduly punished while some defensive sectors have been rerated too much. Exploring further, results from a survey by Bank of America’s (BofA) Global Fund Manager reveals a bullish stance on stocks and expect inflation to fall in 2022.

Therefore with Wall Street analysts not aligned, this new market regime is likely to continue playing the yo-yo. On some occasions, you start by seeing the NASDAQ up by 1%-2%, but then, it finishes the day with only slim gains. At other times, the NASDAQ starts the day by being down by over 1%-2% and then finishes the day by reversing the losses.

These volatile market conditions constitute fertile grounds for traders.

Tools for trading

One solution, in case you have a trader profile, is to use highly leveraged ETFs like the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ) or the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ). First, TQQQ’s objective is simply to deliver triple the daily returns of Nasdaq-100. On the other hand, SQQQ also tracks the Nasdaq 100, but inversely at 3 times. This means that theoretically, if the QQQ jumps by 2%, TQQQ would deliver 6% of gains, and conversely, if QQQ falls by 2%, SQQQ would deliver 6% of upside. These are whopping gains considering that they can be obtained within a day or over a slightly longer period, but traders will obtain less than 6% in practice due to the compounding effect which is inherent in leveraged ETFs.

Consequently, due to compounding effects, do not expect TQQQ to deliver exactly three times the gains on the NASDAQ. The same is applies to SQQQ when tech names fall. Furthermore, far from forming part of a buy-and-hold investment strategy, these two leveraged ETFs are instruments best used over intraday time frames, and those betting on them should monitor news and economic indicators likely to sway the market. They should also be prepared to exit with a loss or, be “risk-tolerant”.

The two charts below show the 3%-4% gains made possible by these two leveraged tools, but here as seen by the rapidity with which the ups and downs occurs, timing is key in order to make a gain.

Source: Prepared by author using data from finance.yahoo.com

I now introduce two other ETFs for investors who are less risk-tolerant.

QLD and QYLD

My purpose for introducing the ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF (QLD) and the Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) together is that they both have delivered exactly the same one-day performance on Wednesday, at 0.2%, outperforming QQQ by 0.12%.

Source: Ycharts.com

First, QLD offers 2x daily long leverage to the Nasdaq-100 Index, which is less than TQQQ’s 3x. This ETF becomes interesting in current market conditions where QQQ’s daily price actions suggest that in addition to being highly volatile over a daily period, it is not producing much uptrend on a longer-term basis. In this case QLD, by providing two times QQQ’s gains over the same period of time can more rapidly “aggregate” these small daily gains, making QLD a powerful tool for investors with a bullish outlook. However, as a leveraged fund, QLD is also impacted by compounding and is better traded on a short-term (one-month maximum) with constant monitoring of daily performance.

Exploring further, there is the QYLD, which follows a “covered call” or “buy-write” strategy, in which the fund managers buys the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index and “writes” or “sells” corresponding call options on the same index. For this purpose, it tracks Cboe Nasdaq-100 BuyWrite V2 Index. This is more of a long term buy-and-hold investment vehicle as it is designed to provide protection in periods when the NASDAQ falls. Thus, while QQQ fell by 13.4% since the start of this year, QYLD’s downside has been more moderated, at 8.7%. In addition, it pays regular monthly income with dividend yields of above 14%, which is really enticing.

Conclusion

Finally, these four ETFs could form part of an equity portfolio strategy where the aim is to provide some hedging (protection) while investors continue to be invested in tech or already own shares of QQQ. In this respect, one strategy which worked well in the last twenty months consisting of dip-buying is no longer working in this new market regime. Thus, instead of buying the dip in the hope of an elusive upside, it would be better to seek alternative strategies in view of the 10-year yields not having gone down yet and QQQ having dipped below its 200-day moving average last week.

Disclosure: This is an investment thesis and is intended for informational purposes. Investors are kindly requested to do additional research before investing.

 

US Fed Playing With Fire – Bubbles May Burst While Bond Yields & Metals Rally

As a result, traders quickly attempt to adjust their capital allocation levels as risk assets, technology, and US major indexes roll lower because of expected Fed Rate Hikes and other Hawkish activities.

We will explore how the US Fed’s comments and potential future actions may prompt significant market trends in 2022 and beyond. We’ll also attempt to identify how and when the US Fed may disrupt the US markets. We know the actions of the US Fed will prompt some significant trends over the next 12 to 24 months. We know certain assets will likely rise in value as fear settles into the markets because of rising interest rates and deflating asset bubbles. It is just a matter of understanding how the speculative asset bubble of the past 8+ years and how the US Fed may move to pop these speculative bubbles soon.

Asset Bubbles Everywhere, The Global Markets Continue To Froth

Asset bubbles, such as those created in Cryptos, the US stock market, US Real Estate, and the art/collectible market over the past 5+ years, have visualized the US Fed’s easy money results in terms of bubbles.

Take a look at this chart showing the growth in certain asset classes since the start of 2019. It is incredible to think that these asset classes have rallied so far and so fast in just over 35 months:

  • The Grayscale Bitcoin ETF rallied more than 1200%.
  • The Technology sector rallied more than 200%. Real Estate rallied more than 85%.
  • The S&P 500 rallied more than 94%.

The US Federal Reserve’s move to lower interest rates after the 2018 market collapse, which resulted in a December 24, 2018, Christmas Bottom, prompted an incredible rally phase where traders followed the US Fed in piling into assets. As long as the US Fed continued buying assets and kept interest rates near zero, global traders had no reason to fight the US Fed.

Chart

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(Source: StockCharts.com)

Is The US Fed About To Pop The Bubble From The Stratosphere?

Our research suggests the US Federal Reserve is changing its policy a little late into the game. However, it appears the US and global markets have already “rolled over” in terms of growth trends and expectations. This SPY to QQQ ratio chart highlights that the US markets entered a peaking phase in late July/August 2020 and reached an ultimate peak in February 2021.

Chart

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(Source: TradingView.com)

S&P 500 PE Ratio Suggests Investors Are ALL-IN For The Next 90+ Years

In other words, it appears traders have reached their ceiling in terms of what they believe the US Fed is capable of doing at this stage in the rally. For example, the PE Ratio of the US Stock market ending in 2021 ended just below 30, with a historical high for 2021 near 37. The historical mean is 15.96 – which is still relatively high for the US stock market.

Remember, a PE level of 15.96 means any investor buying in at those levels would need a minimum of 15.96 years of a company handing over “every penny of revenue” to the investor (excluding all costs, payrolls, taxes, fees, and other operating expenses) to cover the PE multiple of the investment. So a PE level of 30, as we see at the end of 2021, suggests that stock price valuation levels are at least 60 to 90+ years ahead of real returns.

The only thing that can change this historic level of speculation in the markets is a deleveraging/revaluation event.

Graphical user interface, chart, histogram

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(Source: multpl.com)

From the US Fed’s Actions To How Traders Should Prepare For Shifting Markets

This first part of our ongoing research into the US Fed’s actions and where they are telegraphing their intents will continue. Part II of this article will investigate how traders should read into these shifting markets and where we’re attempting to highlight what has taken place over the past 3 to 5+ years.

We’ve managed to live through an incredible event in history. I can only think of one other time when a global superpower extended this type of credit and support for the worldwide economy. That was the Roman Empire many thousands of years ago.

What we experience over the next 20 to 40+ years could be the biggest and most incredible opportunity of your lifetime. The process of deleveraging all this debt and working all this capital through the global markets over the next few decades may present one of the most incredible investment/trading opportunities anyone has ever seen in over 1500 years.

Look for my Part II to this article, and we’ll continue exploring the current shifts in the US and global stock and asset markets.

Finding The Right Strategies That Will Help You Navigate Through Bulls & Bears

If you have struggled with finding opportunities over the past year or so and want to know which are the hottest sectors, or how to protect and grow your capital, then please take a minute to review my Total ETF Portfolio – Triple-Strategy Trading Plan to help you profit from these big market transitions.

Learn how I use specific tools to help me understand price cycles, set-ups, and price target levels in various sectors to identify strategic entry and exit points for trades. Over the next 12 to 24+ months, I expect very large price swings in the US stock market and other asset classes across the globe. I believe the markets are starting to transition away from the continued central bank support rally phase and may start a revaluation phase as global traders attempt to identify the next big trends. Precious Metals will likely start to act as a proper hedge as caution and concern start to drive traders/investors into Metals.

I invite you to learn more about how my three Technical Trading Strategies can help you protect and grow your wealth in any type of market condition by clicking the following link:   www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Founder and Chief Market Strategist of The Technical Traders Ltd.

 

Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I’ve had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.

#1 – Learned Through Expensive Experiences

I help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all:

  • walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.
  • focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules.
  • follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions.
  • protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management
  • only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor
  • focus heavily on index and bond positions
  • say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time
  • trade multiple strategies

#2 – Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based Moves

It’s hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It’s a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying, “don’t trade these stocks.” In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that’s what these types of trades are – small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.

For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it’s a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.

I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.

The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.

Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make Money

Text Description automatically generated with medium confidence

The above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.

People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.

Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.

Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules, and a proven strategy to win long-term.

Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.

Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.

As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.

Hottest Symbols vs Biggest Trends

Bottom line, I don’t care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.

Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:

Graphical user interface, text Description automatically generated

This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won’t find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason – they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital.

#3 – The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!

As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.

Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.

Table Description automatically generated

Source: Eagle Asset Management.

The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% – 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 – 21% max drawdown).

If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.

Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:

  • Protect Capital At All Times.
  • Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).
  • Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.
  • Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.

If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa

Chris Vermeulen

Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

 

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Momentum Shifts to Upside on Trade Through 16066.25

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are inching lower early Friday ahead of the November jobs report as the market nears the end of a roller-coaster week driven by COVID omicron variant developments.

On Thursday, the technology-driven index settled sharply higher, recovering ground lost over recent sessions as market participants snapped up bargains while digesting the implications of a shifting pandemic.

At 04:52 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 15972.50, down 16.00 or -0.10%. On Thursday, the ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 settled at $389.93, up +$2.81 or +0.73%.

The November jobs report is set for release Friday morning. Investors expect to see solid jobs growth last month, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicting 581,000 jobs added in November.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Thursday’s closing price reversal bottom suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the upside.

A trade through 16066.25 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

A move through 15762.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 16456.25.

Early Friday, the index is straddling a pivot at 16020.75.

On the downside, the first support is a pivot at 15676.50. This is followed by a retracement zone at 15567.50 to 15284.50.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a pivot at 16265.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16020.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16020.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 16066.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This will shift momentum to the upside with 16265.25 the next likely upside target. This is the last potential resistance before the 16456.25 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16020.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retest of the closing price reversal bottom at 15762.75.

Taking out 15762.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of a pair of 50% levels at 15676.50 and 15567.50. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 15284.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.