Selling Puts – A Simple Options Strategy

This is especially true with options trading where puts and calls can be bought and sold in seemingly endless combinations with cute names like calendars, diagonals, butterflies, iron condors, ducks, lizards, and so on.

While more complicated strategies have their place, are they necessary to be a successful options trader?  No, not at all.  Quite often, simple strategies are all that are needed to make consistent profits.

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”.  That ironically is a paraphrase of something Einstein said – or is at least attributed to him.

Selling Puts

Buying a put gives the holder the right to sell stock at the strike price to someone else, but only up to the time when the option expires.  We might buy a put to have downside protection, i.e., “insurance”, against a decline in the price of a stock we own.  We might also buy a put as pure speculation on a decline in price in the underlying.  The price paid for a put is a sunk cost that can only be recovered if the put increases in value.

For every put buyer who is long a put, there is a put seller that is short a put.  The put seller receives the price, or “premium”, paid for the put.  In exchange for the premium received there is an obligation for the put seller to possibly buy shares at the strike price.

Two Simple Rules for Put Selling

  1. Like the stock
  2. Like it at the strike price

We should only sell puts on a stock that we would be willing to buy.  If we’re willing to buy shares of a stock, why not sell puts on it and buy shares at a discount?  Or perhaps just collect put premiums and never actually buy the shares?

We should only sell puts when we think the share price will go up, stay about the same, or if there is a drop it will be relatively small.  Here is where Technical Analysis comes in to help us assess the outlook for a stock.  We may be looking at an attractive stock that we wouldn’t mind owning, but just as with buying shares, we would only want to sell puts when we’re bullish on the stock at its current price.

Trade Management

There are a couple of possibilities for how to manage a short put trade.

If the underlying share price is above the strike price at expiration, we can simply let the put expire worthlessly.  We get to keep the premium collected and our obligation to buy shares ends when the option expires.

If the underlying share price is below the strike price at expiration, we’ll be assigned and must buy shares.  Keeping in mind the Two Simple Rules mentioned above, this is not necessarily a bad thing as we can:

  • keep the shares for appreciation and dividends (if there is a dividend).
  • sell the shares and be done with the position.
  • turn around and sell call options against our shares and continue to collect option premium and any dividends.

If the underlying is below the strike price before expiration, there is the possibility of early assignment – at least with American-style options.  Some underlying, in particular cash-settled index products, have European-style options that are only exercisable at expiration.

If there is a significant time value left in the put option, an early exercise is unlikely.  It would be better for the put holder to simply sell their option if they wanted to exit the position.  Otherwise, they would be giving away the time value in the option.  But if the time value is small, they may choose to exercise before expiration.

Rolling

As put option sellers, we are in the “business” of selling time value in exchange for taking on an obligation to buy shares at the strike price.  If the time value is getting small in a put we sold, we can buy back that option and sell another one further out in time.  We can almost always do that for a net credit because we’re selling more time value.  Every additional credit we collect by rolling our option further out in time reduces our risk and potential cost basis.

For example, say a stock is trading at $25.  We sell a $24 put for 30 days out and collect $1 of put premium.  Since we might have to buy shares at $24, our initial risk in the trade is $24 – $1 = $23.

Note that we’re already better off than if we had simply bought the shares at $25.

But suppose the share price dips to $23 and we think we’re likely to get assigned on the put.  We could wait for the assignment and buy the shares at $24. We could also buy back the put for a debit and sell one further out in time for a credit.  As we are selling more time value than we’re buying back, we should be able to extend the duration on that position for a net credit.

Going back to our example where we sold the $24 put for $1, perhaps we’ve rolled that forward several times, collecting an additional $0.50 credit with every roll.   After three rolls, our cost basis on the shares would be $24 – $1 – $0.50 – $0.50 – $0.50 = $21.50.   Where we originally thought we liked the shares at $25, by selling puts instead of buying the shares we now own them with a 14% discounted cost basis of $21.50.

Conclusion

After many years of buying and selling options using a wide variety of strategies ranging from the simple to complex, I find that a simple strategy like selling puts can be one of the easiest to manage and most reliable for generating regular profits.  Don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be!

Want To Learn More About Options Trading?

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits

But most companies, ETFs, and commodities don’t pay a dividend at all. When there’s no dividend, the only opportunity for income or a profit comes from a capital gain (or loss) from selling the position.

Wouldn’t it be nice to get regular payouts from “no dividend” investments? As a dividend, these payouts could be used for income. Or, if left invested, our cost-basis could be further reduced with every payout.

A Commodity ETF Example

While the strategy presented here can work on any stock or ETF that has options, it works best with relatively lower-priced products under about $25. A commodity ETF such as SLV – currently trading around $22 a share — is an ideal candidate.

Like gold, silver has historically been used as a physical store of wealth and a hedge against inflation. But long-term charts on gold and silver show that these products often go sideways for a long time before having a significant move. Historically such investments have required buying, holding, and waiting – sometimes for a very long time.

One way to compensate for the lack of a dividend on silver is to purchase shares of SLV and write Call options against those shares.  This is a relatively simple options strategy of writing “Covered Calls”.

Two Ways to Open the Trade

We want to buy low and sell high by purchasing shares on weakness and selling Calls on strength. We can also sell Puts on weakness as an alternative to purchasing shares. The Profit and Loss graph of selling a Put is the same as for selling a Covered Call.

If we sell Puts, we’ll likely have shares “Put” to us at some point and will then own the shares at the strike price we sold minus the premiums collected. Having shares put to us at a reduced cost basis is part of the plan. When we sell an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Put, we’re methodically nudging the statistics in our favor by “buying low” when there is a pull-back in the underlying. We can alternately think of selling a Put as a Limit Order to buy shares with the limit price equal to the strike price we sold.

When shares are “Put” to us, we then sell Calls against the shares we now own. And the cost (or basis) of the shares we purchased will have been reduced by the cumulative option premium collected by selling Puts.

Trade Management

We may not have a great opportunity to sell option premium in every possible cycle. There will likely be times where the underlying will be in a pullback, and we may want to wait for the price to recover before selling Calls. Actual expiration cycle outcomes are likely to be a mix of having Calls expire worthless in some cycles and having shares called away in other cycles.

Writing Covered Calls is a relatively low-maintenance strategy that doesn’t have to be watched continuously. Once we write Calls, the shares will either be called away or not. But we do have to be patient and let time decay in the options we sold work for us.

If the Calls we sold expire worthless, we still own the shares. In this case, we sell Calls again for some future expiration cycle and collect more option premium.

If our Calls expire In-the-Money (ITM), the Calls will be exercised, and the shares will be called away. The shares are purchased by our counterparty at the strike price we sold, and we no longer own the shares. As the Call seller, we keep the premium and any gain on the shares. In this case, we start the process again by buying shares or selling Puts.

Upside and Downside Risks

Writing Covered Calls (and selling Puts) is a neutral to bullish strategy. There can be sustained downtrends, price shocks, and changes in volatility that can affect strategy performance. As with any strategy, it’s important to ask and understand “What could possibly go wrong?” before getting involved.

There’s always a tradeoff when selling Covered Calls. In exchange for collecting option premium, profit is limited to the amount of premium collected plus any appreciation in shares up to the strike price. For that reason, I tend to sell Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Calls.

Keeping probability in our favor and letting time decay work for us are benefits of selling a Covered Call (or Put). As option sellers, we don’t need large up moves to make a profit. We have the statistical odds in our favor and option time decay working for us. The underlying share price can go up, sideways, or even down a bit, and we can still profit. The “Synthetic Dividend” is one of my favorite ways to generate repeatable profits.

What Else Is There To Know About Options Trading?

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to subscribe, click here:  TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Why Successful Traders Make More By Trading Less

During my 25 years of trading and mentoring others, I have been dragged through the coals a few times. And by that, I mean I have; blown up a few trading accounts; had some massive gains only to watch them turn into worthless penny stocks, and; I even had one trade based around the volatility index blow up and become worthless the day after I bought it. I’ve had many other painful and costly trading experiences between those as well, and I know there will be more in the future. This leads me to the first topic I would like to talk about – learning through experience.

#1 – Learned Through Expensive Experiences

I help a lot of traders each year from all walks of life. They range from 18 to 85+ years of age. Some are total newbies, financial advisors, money managers, all the way up to billionaires. What is apparent is that the most successful traders (those who make money year after year) have the same things in common with how they trade. They all:

  • walk a straight and somewhat unemotional line outside of learning from losses and trading mistakes.
  • focus on managing their capital because they understand just how quick and easy it is to lose money, which is why they focus and follow strict rules.
  • follow very specific trading strategies/rules and do not trade on emotions.
  • protect their capital ALWAYS with stops and position management
  • only trade specific trade setups that put the probabilities in their favor
  • focus heavily on index and bond positions
  • say their trading feels slow/boring most of the time
  • trade multiple strategies

#2 – Ignore High Flying, News, Manipulated, and Hype Based Moves

It’s hard not to participate in some of these wild rallies and stock crashes we have seen over the last couple of years. It’s a natural tendency to want to take part in what everyone else is doing, and the lure of instant oversized gains is powerful. But, unfortunately, most individuals who get involved in these trades lose money for a good reason. They are trading based on greed/emotions with no real measured trading plan.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying, “don’t trade these stocks.” In fact, many of these are incredible opportunities for experienced traders. These types of stocks generally become ideal for day traders and even momentum and aggressive swing traders. They can provide some quick extra cash. But that’s what these types of trades are – small, fast, higher risk trades that only a seasoned trader should trade.

For some reason, traders come into this business thinking it’s a game and believes these are the types of trades that should always be traded. They take oversized positions only to experience significant damaging losses to their account.

I conducted a survey a little while back, and the survey results blew my mind. Most people want to trade the volatile media-driven hype stocks and commodities. People fall in love with specific assets and want to trade only those, even if there are better assets and more efficient ways to pull money out of the market.

The results below frustrate the heck out of me because, to me, it makes no logical sense if you are in the market to make money.

Trader Survey Results Confirm Why it is Hard To Make Money

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The above results make sense as studies have proven that humans react seven times more based on emotions versus logic. This is why the stock market has such wild price swings with Euphoric blowoff tops and Panic washout lows.

People are highly addicted to riding their emotions (adrenaline/dopamine), and they love the rush of fast-moving stocks and gambling, which is why the markets are regulated, along with casinos, for that matter. Simply put, people lose control of common sense and logic when they are on tilt with emotion.

Fast-moving assets with extreme volatility act as a bug-zapper light, which attracts bugs, only to kill anything that gets too close. In this case, new traders think they can make quick and easy money from hot stock in the news.

Trading is a numbers game, and it requires logic, rules, and a proven strategy to win long-term.

Based on the survey we did with thousands of traders, you can see that making the same amount of money with fewer trades and lower risk is not that exciting. Instead, traders prefer high volatility assets like metals, and natural gas, which are manipulated and have large wild price swings.

Also, from a trading statics point of view, those two are among the most difficult to trade.

As a pilot, I know the importance of keeping calm, having checklists/rules, and systems in place. Without them, you will eventually crash and burn; it is just a matter of time. The same holds true for trading and investing in that you need to trade what makes the most money, trade only the best setups, and have the lowest risk.

Hottest Symbols vs Biggest Trends

Bottom line, I don’t care about trading every day or trying to catch the hottest symbols everyone is talking about. Instead, I care about catching and riding the biggest trends in the US stock index and the Treasury Bond ETFs. These are highly liquid sentiment trends that produce oversized gains each year. This is also the reason ETFs have taken over the mutual fund market and why financial advisors and hedge funds primarily trade/own stock index funds and bonds.

Through the Technical Index and Bond ETF Trading strategy, I help individuals and advisors trade more efficiently. This strategy trades SPY, SSO, SPXL, QQQ, QLD, TQQQ and TLT, TBT, TMF, which generate large, compounded returns as shown in the chart below:

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This proprietary ETF trading strategy is straightforward and only generates about 3 to 10 trades per year. Most traders dislike this type of strategy because it lacks lots of action and volatility. If you noticed, you won’t find many professional advisors telling you to jump into the fast-moving hype stocks, and for a good reason – they know better and want to protect your hard-earned capital.

#3 – The Power Of Slow & Steady Gains Are Mind-Bending!

As I learned a long time ago (and this holds true for almost everything across the board), learning something new, like mastering how to trade slower, consistent strategies, can take some getting used to. Everything new will always be a challenge, but once you master something, it becomes simple, low stress, and you will experience more consistent results.

Take a look at this data from an Atalanta Sosnoff report. This should get my point across about how powerful slow, boring, consistent returns pack a powerful punch and why thousands of traders from 82 countries follow my index and bond trading signals.

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Source: Eagle Asset Management.

The Technical Index & Bond ETF trading strategy has consistently produced positive annual results (CGAR average ROI 15% – 51% depending on ETF leverage, only 7 – 21% max drawdown).

If you traded with the 2x or 3x ETFs, you would have crushed the S&P 500 every year and experienced that rush feeling that leverage/volatility provides but within a safer/smarter way.

Passive trading styles like this are a bit different from those you may have traded in the past. My objectives consist of four very important concepts:

  • Protect Capital At All Times.
  • Trade Only When Strategically Opportunistic (probabilities are favorable).
  • Trade Efficiently Using Bonds As Trade When Fear Rises among traders and investors.
  • Move to cash or money market fund when the index and bonds are both out of favor.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I hope this has helped confirm your thinking of trading less and focusing on more solid trade setups. Or maybe it has opened your eyes to the world of slow and steady gains wins the race, with much less stress and effort.

If you are interested in learning more about TIBT – Technical Index & Bond Trader, I invite you to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/twa

Chris Vermeulen

Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

 

Are You an Options Buyer or an Options Seller?

They are a powerful trading “tool” that can be bought, sold, and combined in a seemingly limitless number of ways to achieve a specific objective.

One of the bigger questions for new — and even experienced traders — is whether to be an options buyer or seller. Or both.

QUICK REVIEW

The price of an option is the sum of intrinsic and extrinsic (time) values. Intrinsic value is the mathematical difference between the option strike price and the price of the underlying.  Extrinsic value is variably priced based on the expected volatility of the underlying and remaining time before the option expires.

Let’s go through some of the pros and cons of buying versus selling options.

BUYING OPTIONS

Buying options seems like a simple enough strategy. The trader picks a bullish or bearish direction and goes long (buys) a put or a call corresponding to the stock‘s anticipated directional move. Be sure not to confuse being long an option and being long underlying. For example, if a trader is long a put, due to inverse correlation that is akin to being short the underlying.

But being long an option is not as simple or easy as it appears. The first challenge with a long option is being right about the direction of the stock. The underlying has to move in the expected direction for the option to go up in value and possibly generate a profit.

The option buyer also has to be correct about the magnitude of the underlying move. If a trader buys an option and the amount of the move is not greater than what was spent for the time value, the option won’t be profitable. For example, if $2 is spent for options time value, but the stock only moves $1, it is quite possible to be right about direction but still not profitable.

Time Value

The time value in options is a wasting asset as it will always approach $0 at expiration, so that works in favor of option sellers and against option buyers. Think of time value like an ice cube, melting away slowly at first and then more rapidly.

Since all options have a fixed time when they expire, duration is a significant consideration. A trader could be right about the direction and magnitude of the underlying move, but perhaps that doesn’t materialize sufficiently during the option’s lifetime. So enough time value has to be purchased for the move to happen. And more time value, of course, costs more money.

Implied Volatility (IV)

There’s also the effect of volatility. The time value portion of an option is priced according to the underlying’s anticipated (Implied) volatility. If an option is bought when volatility is low, and there is an increase in volatility, that makes the remaining time value portion of the option price more valuable. That can work in the option buyer’s favor. But there’s also the opposite situation; when an option is purchased when volatility is high, and there is a contraction in volatility.

It’s important to be able to gauge if option premium is underpriced, overpriced, or “average” priced. Technical tools to do that include charting implied volatility itself and some version of IV Rank where current IV is evaluated as a percentile of the range of IV over some time period, typically one year.

So the inherent disadvantages of a long option are the necessity to be correct about direction, magnitude, duration, and possibly implied volatility. These considerations can make the probability of profit with a long option relatively low, often far below 50%.

So why buy an option?

Simple – unlimited profit potential! Long options can generate outsized profits when the trader is right about direction, magnitude, and duration.

When does it make sense to use a long option?

  • When a significant move in a stock is expected.
  • When there’s a trend.
  • When there’s a reversal in a range.
  • When there’s a breakout (up or down).

Solid technical analysis and a keen sense of the specific market are key success factors.

SELLING OPTIONS

For every buyer of an option, there is a seller (counterparty). Option sellers take on an obligation to either buy or sell and stock in return for collecting a premium.

There are a couple of disadvantages to selling options. The premium collected is the maximum profit possible. Selling an option also comes with a possibly substantial obligation to buy or provide stock. There are ways to reduce and manage that obligation risk, such as structuring trades as either vertical or calendar spreads, and these and others will be the subject of many future posts.

So why sell an option?

Probability of profit! Depending on how an option selling trade is structured, it’s possible to have a very high probability of success, sometimes 80% or more. It can be quite a bit easier to generate consistent, albeit smaller, profits with selling options.

So, in summary, buying options come with an inherently low probability of an unlimited profit. Selling options come with a relatively high probability of a modest profit.

What do I do?

Both. But I tend to be an option seller much more often than an option buyer. That better suits my personal style in trying to generate consistent profits for income. Other traders and investors with different objectives may find a different approach works best for them.

Want to learn more about Options Trading?

Every day on Options Trading Signals, we do defined risk trades that protect us from black swan events 24/7. Many may think that is what stop losses are for. Well, remember the markets are only open about 1/3 of the hours in a day. Therefore, a stop loss only protects you for 1/3 of each day. Stocks can gap up or down. With options, you are always protected because we do defined risk in a spread. We cover with multiple legs, which are always on once you own.

If you are new to trading or have been trading stock but are interested in options, you can find more information at The Technical Traders – Options Trading Signals Service. The head Options Trading Specialist Brian Benson, who has been trading options for almost 20 years, sends out real live trade alerts on actual trades, such as TSLA and NVDA, with real money. Ready to check it out, click here: TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Enjoy your day!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Is Social Trading the Key to Faster Crypto Adoption?

They often look to crypto influencers on these sites to acquire strategies that can help them boost their profits from trading.

The increasing interest in crypto, coupled with the explosion of social media, has led to a trading strategy called ‘social trading’. Here is a look at what this exciting aspect of the crypto space entails and whether it can help speed up widespread cryptocurrency adoption.

What is Crypto Social Trading?

Social trading allows crypto users to connect with other traders on a decentralized network. Newbies can view and monitor the investment strategies of more experienced traders and copy their actions to improve their chances of success in the market.

Social trading platforms offer users a venue to share their market analysis, investment strategies, predictions, and much more. They offer an excellent starting point to successful trading for new entrants in the often unpredictable crypto markets.

Why is Crypto Social Trading Important?

Unfortunately, most newbie traders often lose money due to a lack of basic technical analytics skills and a tendency to fall for market speculation. Social trading helps these inexperienced investors reduce the risks inherent in the capricious crypto market by offering them access to expert traders’ winning tactics.

Crypto investors on social trading networks can also interact with their favourite professionals and influencers, ask questions, and learn how to better their trading approaches.

Top platforms often include leaderboards that rank different pro traders based on various metrics, including a win to loss ratio, margin allocation, success, risk, etc. Each pro’s trading history and statistics are displayed transparently on the platform, allowing amateur traders to choose the best trades from top strategy managers.

Social trading platforms such as KuCoin S are stepping up to introduce brand new social trading functions to help simplify crypto trading for starters. The KuCoin S app, developed by KuCoin exchange, features an enhanced UI tailored to the tastes of generation Z investors.

How Novice Traders Earn via Copy Trading

Copy trading is an integral part of social trading that allows beginners in the digital assets market to boost their winning streaks. The strategy also gives pro traders an excellent opportunity to make extra money by sharing their expertise with the crypto trading community.

Top social trading networks open up opportunities for both pros and novice traders to cash in on trades by facilitating one-on-one interactions between users. Essentially, pros can leverage copy trading to monetize their strategies and profit from novice traders who duplicate their tactics to maximize their returns.

Some social trading networks offer beginners the option to invest in an expert trader with a proven track record of earning returns. They entrust their funds to the pro and get a redeemable token equal in value to the crypto they have invested.

The professional trader gets to work leveraging his experience in the market to invest the actual funds for a specified time while the user holds on to the token.

Upon expiration of the trading period, the novice user can submit the token to the smart contract and receive their crypto investment back, along with a share of the profits generated by the professional trader.

Can Social Trading Foster Crypto Adoption?

Many individuals are interested in crypto investments but lack time to analyze the complex trends in crypto markets. Copy-trading strategies allow these users to earn profits by following the lead of experienced investors who have the time and resources to monitor and react to the markets.

Moreover, social trading shortens the steep learning curve for novice traders by allowing them to mimic the strategies of expert investors. It also creates a hub for investment insights where newbie investors can learn about the best crypto gems, trending topics, the latest trading tactics, and much more.

Social trading networks also make the trading experience more immersive and fun by facilitating real-time interaction among users. Investors worldwide can get together on these platforms to discuss their trading experiences, predictions, market insights, etc.

Therefore, social trading allows the masses to participate in the crypto sector by saving amateur investors the time and effort needed to successfully understand the markets and trade.

Social trading platforms offer multiple social trading features aimed at helping traders make better investment decisions. KuCoin S, for instance, offers users various tools to help simplify trades and maximize returns, helping to bring crypto to the masses.

Features such as copy trading, portfolio check and an easy buy function allow users to purchase tokens quickly, manage their holdings and browse the most successful trading strategies on the platform.

Final Thoughts

The main aim of crypto social trading is to connect newbie traders with top professionals. The approach lowers the barrier to entry in the crypto space by allowing less-experienced investors to succeed by following top traders’ time-tested strategies.

Social trading networks such as Kucoin open up the cryptocurrency sector to novice and expert traders by simplifying the trading experience and allowing investors to interact and learn from each other. They also enable traders to better their skills by interacting with community leaders and other successful investors on the network.

In conclusion, social trading holds the potential to speed up the widespread adoption of digital currencies. The growing trend is equipping crypto starters with the tools to book easy profits with minimal effort and experience.

Here’s Why Short Term Trading is More Profitable than Long Term

Millions of merchants join the cryptocurrency world with a common goal of maximizing profits. As such, investors must grasp several trading strategies to become successful in the decentralized economy.

Today, there exist many types of traders within the digital asset market. What separates these investors is the long-term or short-term trading route they take. Long-term trading involves holding digital assets for extended periods. Traders under the long-term method usually believe that specific digital coins may turn out as profitable in the future.

Investors perform trades for shorter periods in a short-term setup, ranging between hours, days, or weeks. This piece uncovers why short-term traders have an advantage over long-term traders.

Why Short Term Generates More Income Than Long Term Trading

A lot can happen in the digital asset market, depending on the set timeline. Thus, durations play a significant role in determining the outcome of an investor’s trading strategy. Bearing that in mind, here’s why short-term trading is more profitable than long-term trading:

It Leverages Recent Trends

Short-term investments heavily rely on the recent events taking place in the crypto market. Here, users watch the market and make sound trading decisions based on their findings. For instance, influential figures such as Elon Musk embracing Bitcoin payments is positive news that can accumulate profits for users.

However, the mogul declined to use Bitcoin because of the environmental harm it causes during the mining process. As such, leveraging occurrences cannot be applicable for long-term trading since trends tend to change over time.

Requires Less Capital

In long-term trading, users make heavy investments because they are optimistic about a crypto asset’s future. However, the volatility rates of cryptocurrencies do not guarantee that investors can save their capital. Investors in the short-term trading field can make profits out of a small amount of capital.

It removes the pressure of requiring a bigger capital just to accumulate profits. As time goes by, short-term traders can continue upgrading their capital depending on their budgets.

The Market is Active

The cryptocurrency industry is a highly active market that operates around the clock. Being a broad and dynamic market, short-term investors vigorously make trading decisions that can uplift their incomes. So, short-term crypto investments are reliable for anyone at any given time.

Immediate Reinvestment

Investors using short-term methods can make immediate reinvestments from what they gain. Long-term strategies such as staking hold the investors’ assets and, in most cases, lock their holdings in digital wallets.

It, therefore, limits users from reinvesting in their growing coins. Short-term trading eliminates such barriers and enables investors to make an extra investment after making profits.

Limits the Hassle of Researching

Finding out more about a platform’s offerings is part and parcel of any investment journey. Nevertheless, short-term trading methods require less research time than long-term trading strategies. Short-term investors only need to grasp basic information and carry on with their trading activities.

Long-term tactics take a more comprehensive approach since users will commit their holdings for a longer time. In the end, long-term investors may experience losses even after dedicating their time to research.

Short Term Strategies Investors Can Use

Crypto traders can use the following types of short term strategies to secure adequate profits:

Scalping

Scalping involves making trades using a digital currency’s price movements. Under this strategy, traders act upon price shifts taking place within seconds or minutes. Experienced scalpers earn incomes by looking for time-sensitive opportunities. Thus, Scalpers develop consistency and chart reading skills as they gather continuous profits.

Arbitrage Trading

Arbitrage trading operates as a short-term strategy that relies on different market offerings. Investors buy digital assets from one exchange and sell them in another exchange, offering higher prices. The speed of an investor is what matters a lot in arbitrage trading. Another option is triangular arbitrage which uses the values of three assets on one exchange. Arbitrageurs make use of the price differences between exchanges to realize profits.

Leverage Trading

In leveraged trading, crypto exchanges allow investors to borrow funds and use that position to generate profits. Traders with smaller holdings can increase their buying power using the exchange’s long-short positions.

Trend Lines

Trend lines allow users to analyze the crypto’s momentum and enter into a trading position. On some occasions, traders hold the same positions for more extended periods. Nonetheless, the general idea behind trend lines is to watch for any upward or downward shift and speculate the asset’s next movement.

The most common trend indicators used include relative strength index, moving averages, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD)

Closing Thoughts

Short-term trading allows investors to exploit the current market movements and accumulate gains. More importantly, short-term trade caters to budget-sensitive traders who wish to stick to their plans.

Through short-term trades, investors can receive updates on what is happening in the digital asset market. In the long run, investors gain more experience in handling and executing different types of trades.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Technical Analysis – How Do Professionals Trade Gold?

Professional money managers use several technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators to determine the future direction of gold prices. The Metal is both precious and industrial and is viewed as both a commodity and a currency. The yellow metal, as it is often referred to as, is generally quoted in US dollars and trades both as an exchange-traded instrument as well as over the counter.

How Do Professionals Trade Gold?

Gold is considered a safe-haven asset that appreciates in value when investors are looking for an alternative to other currencies that are depreciating. When interest rates are declining around the world, the demand for a currency that will sustain its value provides a backdrop for rising gold prices. Gold is traded in the cash, futures, and forward markets.

Gold has a forward interest rate, like dollar rates or Euribor rates. This interest rate called the GOFO rate increases relative to the US dollar when gold demand rises. Officially, the Gold Forward Offer Rate, or GOFO, is the interest rate at which contributors are prepared to lend gold on a swap against US dollars, they can use gold as collateral and potentially pay a much smaller rate of interest to borrow the cash than otherwise.

Cash, futures, and forward traders will evaluate three dimensions that provide them with a view of the gold market. These include the technicals, the fundamental backdrop, and sentiment.

Technical Analysis of the Gold Market

Professional gold investors attempt to analyze the long-term trend in gold prices by evaluating a weekly chart. Gold prices trend and trade sideways like other capital market instruments. By using different tools you can determine if the price is likely to trend or remain in a range.

Weekly continuous gold futures prices in August 2021are trading sideways to lower based on its position relative to the 50 and 10 Weekly Moving Averages.

Momentum is confirming this assessment as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is generating a crossover sell signal, while the relatively tight distance between the moving averages suggest nearly flat momentum. The indicator is also suggesting momentum may be getting ready to accelerate.

The MACD is a very useful momentum index that uses moving average to generate a crossover signal that describes when positive as well as negative momentum is accelerating.

Weekly Continuous Gold MACD
Weekly Continuous Gold MACD

Momentum is Important

An often used momentum indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This momentum oscillator describes whether prices are accelerating relative to the last 14-periods.

After peaking during the week-ending August 7, 2020, the RSI has been trending lower. With a reading of 70 the high threshold and a reading of 30 the low threshold, the current reading of 47.56 indicates nearly flat momentum with a slight bias to the downside. Bullish gold traders are now waiting for the market to cross over to the strong side of the 50 level. This will give them an early jump on a shift in momentum to higher.

The key to using the RSI is to look at prior highs to determine how far momentum has accelerated in the past. The weekly RSI has hit levels of 82, 77 and 75 in the past, which means that positive momentum can still accelerate over the upper threshold at 70 as gold prices break out.

Weekly Continuous Gold RSI

Gold Market Sentiment

There are several ways to determine market sentiment within the gold market. One of the best indicators is using the Commitment of Trader’s report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report helps traders understand market dynamics.

The COT reports show position data that is reported by category. This information is reported to the CFTC by brokers and clearing members. While the actual reason that a trader has a position is not reported, experts make certain assumptions that provide information about those positions.

Gold Committment of Traders

Positions are reported by category. For gold futures and options, the categories include swap dealers, managed money, and other reportables. Swap dealers include banks and investment banks as well as industry-specific merchandisers. Managed money includes hedge funds, pensions funds, and mutual funds. Other reportables is retail trade.

The CFTC staff does not know specific reasons for specific positions and hence this information does not factor in determining trader classifications. For example, the CFTC does not know if a swap dealer is taking a speculative position or hedging risk. What experts need to evaluate is why positions are increasing or decreasing.

Gold Committment of Traders Small and Large Speculators

Professional traders generally assume that all the swap dealer positions reflect hedges from deals transacted with gold producers and refiners. Those positions are offset with speculative positions taken by managed money.

Managed money takes positions that provide you with information about sentiment. There are two concepts that you need to evaluate. The first is a trend in place. If the COT information shows that managed money or large specs are increasing their long positions, sentiment toward gold is increasing. If they are increasing their short positions, then the negative sentiment is increasing.

The second concept is whether the open long or short positions in managed money is overextended. If managed money is overextended, sentiment is too high and prices could snap back quickly.

Gold Fundamentals

The two most important gold fundamental indicators are the direction of US Treasury yields and whether the US dollar is likely to rise or fall.

Higher Treasury yields or interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. In another way to look at it, since gold doesn’t pay interest or a dividend to hold it, rising or high interest rates make gold a less attractive investment. When interest rates fell to near zero as they did in 2020 – 2021, gold became a more desired asset.

Since gold is priced in US dollars, when the dollar rises, it makes gold more expensive to holders of foreign currencies. This means gold prices need to fall to accommodate the higher cost of purchasing it in dollars. The reverse is true when the dollar declines.

A third fundamental factor to watch is consumer inflation. Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation, which can be caused by massive stimulus measures. When inflation is on the rise, gold prices will offset increases in a basket of goods or services.

Summary

Gold prices fluctuate weekly, and over the long term either trade within a trend or consolidate. There are several technical indicators, such as the MACD, RSI, and Moving averages that can help you determine the future direction of gold prices.

In addition, professional traders use a combination of technical analysis, sentiment analysis, and fundamental analysis to determine the future price of gold.

Sentiment analysis can include the Commitment of Traders report released weekly by the CFTC.

Additionally, professional investors will track the direction of Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar, which are the driving forces behind the value of gold.

How To Use Technical Analysis In Forex Markets

Charts are useful tools for investors and traders as they offer insight into herd behavior. In a book written in 2004, author James Surowiecki explained how crowds make better decisions than individuals. Markets are embodiments of Surowiecki’s thesis as the current price of an asset is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment.

When it comes to the global foreign exchange market, buyers and sellers of currencies determine the rates of one foreign exchange instrument versus others on a real-time basis. At the same time, governments manage the level of currency volatility to maintain stability. Technical analysis can be particularly useful in the currency markets as technical levels can provide clues about levels where government intervention is likely to occur.

Technical analysis includes support and resistance levels where currency pairs tend to find lows and highs. At the same time, price momentum indicators often signal where exchange rates are running out of steam on the up and the downside.

Technical analysis can breakdown at times when black swan events occur.

Futures are a microcosm of the OTC market

In the world of foreign exchange, the over-the-counter market is the most liquid and actively traded arena. The OTC market is a global and decentralized venue for all aspects of exchanging the currency of one country for another; it is also the largest market in the world. In April 2019, the average trading volume was $6.6 trillion per day. The OTC market operates twenty-four hours per day, except for weekends.

Futures markets for currency pairs are smaller, but they reflect the price action in the OTC market. When it comes to technical analysis, the futures market provides a window into the price trends and overall state of the strength or weakness of one currency versus another.

Volume and open interest metrics provide clues for price direction

The dollar versus the euro currency pair is the most actively traded foreign exchange relationship as both foreign exchange instruments are reserve currencies.

Source: CQG

The weekly chart of the dollar versus the euro futures contract displays the price action in the currency pair since late 2017. The bar chart on the bottom reflects the weekly volume, which is the total number of transactions. The line above volume is the open interest or the total number of long and short positions.

When volume and open interest are rising or falling with the price, it tends to be a technical validation of a price trend in a futures market. When the metrics decline with rising or falling prices, it often signals that a trend is running out of steam, and a reversal could be on the horizon. Volume and open interest are two technical metrics that aid technical traders looking for signs that a trend will continue or change.

Momentum indicators are powerful technical tools at times

Stochastics and relative strength indices can provide a window into the overall power of a trend in a futures market.

Source: CQG

Beneath the weekly price chart, the slow stochastic is an oscillator that aims to quantify the momentum of a price rise or decline. Stochastics work by comparing closing prices with price ranges over time. The theory behind this technical tool is that prices tend to close near the highs in rising markets and near the lows in falling markets.

A reading below 20 indicates an oversold condition, while over 80 is a sign of an overbought condition. On the weekly chart of the euro versus the dollar currency pair, the reading of 31.42 indicated that the stochastic oscillator is falling towards oversold territory in a sign that the downtrend could be running out of steam.

The relative strength indicator compares recent gains and losses to establish a basis or the strength of a price trend. A reading below 30 is the sign of an oversold condition, while an overbought condition occurs with a reading above the 70 level. At 45.55 on the weekly dollar versus euro chart, the indicator points to a neutral condition in the currency pair.

Technical analysis can fail at times

Technical analysts look for areas of price support and resistance on charts. Support is a price on the downside where a market tends to find buying that prevents the price from falling further. Resistance is just the opposite, as it is the price on the upside where a market tends to experience selling that prevents it from rising further. When a price moves below support or above resistance, it often signals a reversal in a bullish or bearish price trend.

Technical analysis is not perfect, as the past is not always an ideal indicator of the future.

Source: CQG

The chart of the currency relationship between the US and Australian dollar shows that the price broke down below technical support and experienced a spike to the downside. The price movement turned out to be a “blow-off” low on the downside that reversed after reaching a significantly lower price.

Technical analysis provides a roadmap of the past in the quest for insight into the future. Many market participants use technical analysis to make trading and investing decisions, which often creates a self-fulfilling prophecy as a herd of transactional activity can create or impede a price trend. Technical analysis is a tool that foreign exchange traders use to project the path of least resistance of exchange rates.

Some of the most influential participants in the foreign exchange markets are governments. Historical price volatility in foreign exchange markets tends to be lower than in most other asset classes because governments work independently or together, at times, to provide stability for exchange rates. Therefore support and resistance levels tend to work well over time.

What Is A Forward Contract?

A forward contract is an over-the-counter or exchange-traded financial transaction for the future delivery of a commodity or an asset. The buyer receives guaranteed access to the asset at an agreed-upon price. The seller receives a fixed price as well as a sales outlet from the buyer.

Forward contracts can call for payment upon delivery of the asset but may also include provisions for margin or other terms expressly agreed upon by the parties to the contract. A forward can be a useful hedging tool for both producers and consumers of commodities. However, they can also be fraught with pitfalls at times.

Forwards in the over-the-counter market

In the OTC market, a forward transaction occurs on a principal-to-principal basis between a buyer and a seller. The parties to the contract obligate themselves by contractual terms with the seller assuming the credit risk of the buyer and the buyer doing the same with the seller.

In the world of commodities, there are many derivations of the forward contract. A pre-export financial transaction is a forward where the buyer pays the seller a percentage of the value before delivery. Pre-export financial transactions require the buyer to take more risk than the seller. The price for the asset tends to reflect the higher risk undertaken by the buyer. Another form of a forward transaction is a swap, where a buyer and exchange a fixed for a floating price.

In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, changes in the regulatory environment caused many forward and swap transactions to move into clearinghouses where margin requirements lowered the potential for defaults.

Forwards are very popular in the highly liquid over-the-counter foreign exchange market. Forward transactions allow for the parties to negotiate all of the terms for the purchase and sale and they are non-standardized contracts.

Forwards on an exchange

Some exchanges offer products that are forwards rather than futures contracts. The London Metals Exchange, which is the oldest commodities exchange in the world, trades forwards on nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, nickel, lead, zinc, and tin. While each contract represents a standard amount of the metal in metric tons, the most actively traded product is the three-month forward. Producers and consumers favor the LME contracts as they allow for delivery of the metals each business day of the year. The LME also offers forward contracts for shorter and longer terms in all of the metals.

The difference between a forward and a futures contract

The most significant difference between a forward and a futures contract is that the forward is non-standardized. Futures have the following characteristics:

  • One stated asset or commodity
  • A physical or cash settlement
  • A fixed amount of the asset per contract
  • The currency in which the asset is quoted
  • The grade or quality of the asset that is deliverable
  • The delivery month and subsequent delivery months
  • The last day of trading
  • The minimum price fluctuation per contract, which is the tick value

Futures are subject to original and variation margin. In a non-standardized forward contract, the terms of margin when it comes to a good-faith deposit and payment of market differences are subject to negotiation.

A forward contract offers less liquidity than a futures contract as the future can be offset with any other party. Many forwards can only be offset by agreement of the original parties. In futures, the clearinghouse becomes the counterpart for all purchase and sale transactions. While both futures and forwards are derivative instruments, there are tradeoffs. Futures allow for far more liquidity, while forwards often meet the needs of those buyers and sellers looking for tailor-made solutions to financial risks.

Meta Trader 4: The Complete Guide

Most of these trading platforms are customized by MetaQuotes for a broker which is referred to as a White Label. The newest addition is MT5, but many traders like the tried and true Meta Trader 4, as it provides all the functionality you need in a forex trading platform.

Getting Started with Meta Trader 4

Meta Trader 4 is intuitive and relatively easy to use.  You can start by opening a demonstration account that allows you to test drive the system without making a deposit.  You simply need to provide a broker that uses Meta Trader Platforms, your personal information including your email and they will send you a login and password to open a demonstration account.

A demonstration account uses demonstration money and allows you to see how the platform works without risking real capital.  Don’t be afraid to place multiple trades so you understand how to execute and order and view your positions.

The first page you see when you open Meta Trader 4, can be customized as your default page. You might want to see forex quotes along with a chart as an example. On the left side is a quote sheet. It shows you a list of products that you can trade through the MT4 platform.

You can double-click on any of the items on the quote sheet and it will bring up an order page.  Here you can see a graph of a tick chart along with the asset you are planning to trade. You can fill in your volume and place a stop loss and take profit orders.  This allows you to set your risk management before you even place your trade.

Additionally, you can have a 1-click trading box in the upper left side that allows you to instantly place a trade. You can place your trade using market execution or pending order.  You also can determine the volume of your trade.  Below is the bid-offer spread. As a market taker, you buy on the offer (the blue) and sell on the bid (the red).

Navigating through Meta Trader 4 is intuitive and designed to give you easy access to all of the destinations available on the platform.  You can customize your home page to see any page, including seeing your positions.

The demo account has a tab system on the bottom left, that opens to the common tab, where you can see charts of the major currency pairs.  You can change that to see daily, weekly or any intra-day period.  You can create several tabs that provide a view that you want to see.

Above the tabs is a navigator that allows you to see technical indicators as well as expert advisors and scripts.  Technical indicators allow you to perform technical analysis of different assets. An expert advisor is a system that can be back-tested to understand the performance of an automated trading signal over time.  Scripts allow you to drive alerts and run automated trading scenarios.

If you double-click in indicators in the menu of the navigator, you will a plenty of technical indicators that can be customized. In the graph above, the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is shown, along with a pop up of a custom input that you can use to change the standard MACD.

You can change the number of units (days, weeks, months, etc…) as inputs along with the colors used to generate a MACD indicator. The MACD shows both the MACD lines as well as the MACD histogram. There are dozens of technical indicators. You can save your favorite indicators into a tab and name favorites.

Expert Advisor

Metal Trader 4, offer access to their expert advisor. An expert advisor is a system that places trades after they have been back-tested.  It will automatically execute your trades when specific criteria are met. The demo account gives you a choice of a couple of different sample expert advisors.  You can choose from a moving average crossover expert advisor or a MACD expert advisor.

You can choose the inputs you use for each of these advisors such as the number of days or hours that you want in the calculation of the signal as well as the risk management that you want to employ when trading.  Risk management is a key component of your trading. The use of a demonstration account in conjunction with an expert advisor is highly recommended.

Scripts

Within the scripts section, you will find a wide variety of trading mechanisms. This includes automated trading, along with trading signals. There is copy trading as well as specific risk-reward indicators.  You can use multiple scripts with reviews of these scripts on your demonstration account to determine if the trading performance is in tandem with your goals.

Summary

Meta Trader 4 is one of the most efficient and complete trading platforms available.  You can open a demonstration account to test drive Meta Trader 4, and determine if its right for you.  You can set up multiple pages, to see charts, quotes, along with your portfolio.  You can execute traders from the quote sheet or enter an order directly.

There is a navigator you can use to add indicators, as well as create an expert advisor.  The platform provides you with access to dozens of indicators. You also can program your indicator. MT4 also allows you to evaluate a plethora of scripts that allow you to copy other investor’s trades or set up a signal that has been reviewed by others who use meta trader to transact. This is one of the most widely used trading platforms and is the benchmark platform for retail forex traders globally.

The Benefits of Using Contracts for Differences

Contracts for differences (CFDs) are financial instruments that track many assets including forex, individual equity shares, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies. CFDs allow you to trade the capital markets using leverage.

What is a Contract for Differences (CFD)?

A contract for differences (CFD) is a financial instrument that tracks the movements of an underlying asset such as a stock, currency pair, commodity, cryptocurrency or index. It differs from the underlying instrument in that you do not have to post the entire amount of capital to buy the underlying instrument. Instead, you only need enough to cover the change in the price from where you plan to enter the trade, and where you will exit the trade.

This compares to a stockbroker who might require that you need to have nearly all the capital in your account to buy equity shares. In some cases, when you purchase a CFD, you might be entitled to the dividend that is granted by the company on the underlying shares. CFDs can be used to trade directionally, or you can buy one CFD and simultaneously sell a different CFD and capture the relative value change.

Do CFDs Provide Leverage?

A CFD has an imbedded leverage feature which will differ from broker to broker and asset to asset. Leverage is a feature that enhances your trading returns, as it allows you to increase the capital you control with borrowed capital.

For example, some brokers will allow you to purchase $4,000 of EUR/USD while only posting collateral of $10. To use leverage, you need to open a margin account. Each broker will have different criteria for opening a margin account. They will generally ask you questions about your trading experience as well as your investing knowledge.

It’s important to understand how leverage can impact your trading returns. If you can purchase $4,000 of EUR/USD using 400-1 leverage, it will only take a 0.25% ($4,000 * 0.0025 = $10) move to either double your money or wipe out your capital. So, while leverage is an attractive tool, it can be a double-edged sword.

When you open a margin account, your broker will require that you always have a specific amount of capital in your account.  Each time your place a new trade your broker will require that you post a specific amount of fund which is referred to as initial margin.  The margin required is the amount of capital needed if the price of the CFD moved against you by a larger than the normal amount.

Your broker wants to make sure that you have enough capital allocated to a trade that if there was a larger than normal change in the price, that you have the funds to cover the losses. As the market moves, the amount of margin that you need to hold against each trade will change. If the price of the asset that you are trading moves against you, your broker will take maintenance margin to cover additional losses in addition to your initial margin. If the price of the security you are trading moves in your favor, the initial margin will remain unchanged, but any maintenance margin that was collected will decline.

The margin calculation is in real-time, and it tells your broker the minimum amount of capital you must have in your account to continue to hold your position.  If your trade moves against you and you are unable to increase the capital you have in your account, your broker will have the right to begin to liquidate your position.  Make sure you completely understand the margin agreement you sign and your broker’s rights to liquidate your position before you start to trade CFDs.

Trading CFDs relative to Stocks

CFDs can be very efficient for investors who are looking to trade stocks. This is because the leverage that is used in CFD trading, is much higher than the leverage you can receive with a stockbroker. For example, Amazon shares are trading near $1800 per share.

This means that you would need $1,800 just to purchase one share of Amazon stock. Many CFD brokers offer leverage of 20-1 which would allow you to purchase 1 CFD of Amazon for as little as $90 per CFD. A 5% rise in Amazon shares will allow you to double your money. Additionally, for the same $1,800 that would allow you to purchase 1-share of Amazon stock, you could buy 20 Amazon CFDs. Lastly, CFDs allow you to short the stock without having to borrow the shares.

Managing Your Risk

CFD trading can be risky, especially if you use leverage, so you must have a plan in place before you make each trade. To avoid the risk of ruin, you should limit the amount of capital you place on each trade to 5-10% of your portfolio. For example, if you plan to trade a portfolio of $5,000 the maximum you should post for each trade should be $500. This will provide you with a strategy that will provide some forgiveness if you start slowly.

Another concept you should follow is to cut your losses and let your profits run.  If the market moves against you and hits your stop loss, you should exit and live to see another day. If the market moves in your favor, move your stop-loss up and let your gains compound as the market moves in your favor.

Summary

Contracts for differences (CFDs) are financial instruments that allow you to trade the capital markets without purchasing the underlying instrument. CFDs track underlying instruments and provide leverage to help you enhance your returns. This would include equity shares, commodities, indices, forex, and cryptocurrencies. To trade CFDs with your broker you will need to open a margin account. While leverage can significantly enhance your trading returns, it is a double edge sword and can also lead to robust loses. You must have a well thought out risk management plan that you can employ on each trade, before risking any of your hard-earned capital.

Decisive Action in the New Decade: How to Invest Wisely in the 2020’s

Sadly, we’re still having to cope with jittery markets and widespread instability due to a range of political, environmental and technological factors, but that’s not to say there won’t be some great investment opportunities which we can capitalize on in the coming years.

The previous decade gave us a taste of the almighty potential that disruptive technology possesses, and cryptocurrencies, in particular, taught us that the sky’s the limit if investors are shrewd, wise and, in many cases, lucky enough.

Of course, cryptocurrencies are way too volatile to consider as anything other than a gamble, but there are plenty of opportunities out there that hold potential for the coming decade. Though it’s important to note that there are lots of unforeseeable circumstances that could undermine the value of just about any investment in the future – so it’s advisable to keep on guard if you decide to buy specific assets.

Looking to the clouds

(Cloud robotics industry forecasts show that industry growth is expected in the 2020s. Image: EVA)

Hamish Douglass is the billionaire chairman of Magellan and is an expert when it comes to investing in tech companies in particular. Speaking to the Financial Review, Douglass is confident that cloud computing will be the star player of the 2020s. “Mobility, internet of things, edge computing, enables the whole cloud to come together and do things we can’t even imagine today and businesses we haven’t even thought of will be $100 billion businesses in ten years,” he explained.

The beauty of cloud computing is that it’s demonstrably effective already. As opposed to the industries of AI and Virtual Reality, which still rely on some degree of speculation, the cloud is already largely used for the storage of images, home entertainment, collaboration tools, and within a range of smart devices. Many speculate that it’s soon to infiltrate the world of gaming, too.

As technology becomes smarter, the necessity of communicating with other smart devices increases. Add to this the fact that wires are fast becoming redundant in a world that’s dependent on convenience and it leaves the Internet of Things and cloud computing as an essential development in everyday life. The massive processing power of the cloud will also be key for industries depending on the interpretation of big data and powerful calculations.

In a jittery financial landscape, it’s fair to say that shares in the cloud technology companies could be one of the safest investments of the coming decade. This isn’t to say it’s completely immune from extraneous circumstances, but it’s one of the best shots to build a healthy portfolio.

Safety in real estate

Writing for Market Watch, Mark Hulbert believes that real estate is set to offer value investments over the next 10 years.

Hulbert highlights a Bankrate survey that asked investors which type of investment they would pick if they were using money that wouldn’t be needed for 10 years. The choices were stocks, bonds, real estate, cash, gold or metals, or cryptocurrencies.

The winner by some margin was real estate, which goes some way in showing that the best investments can come from more traditional places. Nearly one-third of respondents chose the housing market, and given that the stock markets as a whole face an uncertain short-term future, it could be one of the wisest decisions.

Hulbert believes that the performance of real estate during bear markets – with the notable exception of the 2008 market crash – shows that homes are safer than equities should an economic downturn occur. “In every other stock market bear market since the 1950s, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose in all but one. And in that lone bear market prior to 2007 in which the index did fall, it did so by just 0.4%.”

There’s also the added perk of the housing market being much less prone to the level of volatility shown by the world stock markets, meaning that over a 10-year period, your investments are likely to fluctuate less.

Geographic diversity

(Image: Visual Capitalist)

Interconnectivity has been making the world a smaller place for some time, and when looking for future investments it’s vital to look beyond the western world.

Tobias van Gils, of Countach Research believes that the fastest GDP growth of the 2020s will come from Asia. Furthermore, Van Gils highlights neglected economies surrounding both China and India as possessing great potential for growth.

The driving force behind Asian growth in the 2020s will be China’s multi-trillion dollar Silk Road Economic Belt, as well as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road – two infrastructure investments that are designed to bring unprecedented levels of trade across the eastern hemisphere and beyond.

(Old and new: The new Silk Road infrastructure. Image: Benzinga)

Of course, such an ambitious project comes with more caveats. Firstly, much of the GDP forecast for Asia will be influenced by the successful arrival of the Silk Road. Secondly, with so many nations working together, it’s reasonable to expect some hitches in the development of such a large project.

Relationships with the US and China have been frosty to say the least, and the decade has arrived with fresh tensions in the Middle East. While China’s emerging economy still seems like a wise investment, its level of progress will depend on a more optimistic political climate.

Capitalising on disruption

Another safe set of investment options stem from the growing range of disruptive technologies set to become available in the coming decade.

There are five key areas where disruptive technologies are ripe for the future, and they include:

Green-tech and energy

Helping to propose solutions to the growing climate emergency comes renewable energy sources like wind power and fuel cells, as well as green buildings and carbon capture and storage solutions.

Advanced materials

Including nanomaterials, graphene and solid-state batteries.

Digital technology

Relating to both 5G and 6G, AI, quantum computing, blockchain and both augmented and virtual reality.

Smart machines

Involving exoskeletons, service robots, medical robots, 3D printing, driverless vehicles and industrial robots.

Biotechnology

Potentially disrupting healthcare could come technology like personalised medicine, gene therapy, nanobiosensors, cell therapy and 3D bioprinting.

Given the important role each piece of technology can play, it’s fair to assume that the future will see widespread implementation of many disruptive solutions. However, in the next 10 years, it could come down to which governments are more willing to spend money on developing the tech.

Once again, China could play a significant role in developing disruptive technology, and may focus on sectors that carry the most economic importance.

While investments in these sectors would appear generally safe, the issue is that most disruptive technology requires significant levels of funding, and in an economically unstable environment, it can be tricky to find a government or organisation willing to invest heavily in the implementation of such tech.

However, in a world that’s beginning to wake up to climate change, it’s worth taking a look at disruptive technologies in the field of sustainability and renewable energy as an area that could develop comfortably as the new decade rumbles on.

It’s Going to Take More Than the ” Surgical Face Mask Hedge”

Perusing the ASEAN market increasingly tilted landscape, it’s going to take more the “surgical face mask” hedge to reverse the trend, which is trading at 10 X premium in my neck of the woods (Bangkok), incidentally.

Fears are increasing again and should continue to weigh on global markets with Asian equities suffering harder knockdowns. I am skeptical investors will be as quick to jump into trades fading these moves until the transitory period sets in.

But the market is so finely tuned these days, and in a matter of days, its self-correcting mechanism takes hold without the need for central bank policy. One of the more undervalued market self-correcting mechanisms is how quickly financial conditions loosen. From last Friday’s tops to peak fear yesterday, the bond markets shaved off a whopping 15 basis points on ten-year US yields, which offset the stronger dollar and decline in the equity market and accomplishes much of the central bank heavy lifting. But I’m not sure that itself will be enough to paper over all the cracks.

To be sure, the weakness in underlying ASEAN bourses and soon to be global is transcending the usual suspects, luxury, travel, and tourism.
Investors could be forgiven for thinking that markets have it in for them at the moment. Just as the market puts phase one trade deal to bed, then we get hit with geopolitical concerns around a potential US-Iran war, and just as those fears died down, they were replaced by WARS of another kind (Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome)

The market was able to shrug things off quickly in the past, but the other risk here is that all the bandwidth is being taken up by the virus, and is taking focus away from other issues.

Frankly, I’m surprised there was very little attention paid to the progress Bernie Sanders had made towards the Democratic nomination.

FX Foreign outflows from SETi continued.  YTD outflows from Thailand approached $400mil, the highest outflows among Asian markets this year.  THB broke 31 as of this morning, and USDTHB continued to grind higher.

I’ve been a bit narrowly focused on THB and CNH for obvious reasons. Still, I think the ASEAN basket, and especially the Malaysia Ringgit will remain extremely vulnerable over the next few sessions on potential outflows as what supported the Ringgit entering the Year of the Rat is gradually evaporating. As discussions on the expected market fallout from the Novel coronavirus continue to send waves of negative across the bow and the market reaction is shifting from a knee-jerk USD adjustment to a full hedge buy-in as Asia’ key bellwether proxy nudges towards 6.99 (USDCNH). The Ringgit remain prone beyond the CNH correlation basis.

Traders Still Fear The Virus

Uncertainty is coming from the Coronavirus as we do not really know the real scale of the outbreak. The thing that it originated in China make it even more complicated. Traders did not really believe if the official GDP data is legitimate, so we should not be surprised that they are also suspicious about the numbers of the deaths or people affected.

SP500 ended last week and starts a new one in the same manner – with a huge drop. The heads and shoulders that we mentioned on Thursday, works. Price managed to break the dynamic support connecting higher lows since the beginning of December. Now, we are aiming one connecting lows since October. Buyers should not worry too much though. We still have many major supports that can stop the decline. Remember that American indices love V-shape reversals and for the past 10 years, every stronger drop was rapidly turned into a buying bonanza.

On Thursday we also warned about the correction od DAX. There was no surprise here and German Index also declined. Here, we also have a Head and Shoulders formation and currently, the price is breaking the neckline. As for now, it is nothing serious and European Bulls remain strong.

Risk OFF mode usually means stronger gold. It is not different now. On Gold, I can see a small Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. It is not the prettiest one but trading is not a beauty contest. Principle is here: the price made a double bottom formation, then tried to go down again and failed breaking the neckline. As long as we are above the neckline and the orange support, sentiment seems positive.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, Director of Research and Education at Axiory

Asia Update: A Risk-Off Sprint For The Exits

In lockstep, USDCNH has been in demand and is trading above 6.96 as traders begin to price in the unavoidable China GDP knockdown. All the while traders are waiting with fingers crossed for a signal of PBoC policy deluge, which could provide a suitable band-aid to stop the bleeding.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Sugga has already hinted at policy measures this morning to buttress the coronavirus impact on Japan’s tourism. so there could be some consorted regional policy  measure in the works

But with a risk-off sprint for the exits at the open this morning, gold traded to a high of $1589.00 and silver to $18.3800. The market has retraced since the initial clamber, but demand remains firm on dips.

Liquidity is at a premium with Lunar New Year holidays in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan as well as Australia Day which may have exacerbated moves

Oil prices got hammered to the tune of 2 % at the open as the market continues to move into full bear mode and price in worse case scenarios. This despite Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud performing his best Hans Brinker routine, suggesting the sell-off is “primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative expectations adopted by some market participants despite its very limited impact on global oil demand,” ( Reuters). But upticks continue to get sold. And with a possible 1 % haircut to Chinas GDP as a result of the domestic virus break out, it’s hard to argue the direction of travel, especially given the current oil price linkage to the Chinese economy.

Traders (or Algos) sliced through resting stops on the March 2020 contract on incredibly high volumes for an Asia holiday. Globex is showing 57,211 WTI contracts going through so far this morning. Oil positions could be at risk on a deeper dive as long oil contract bullish bets remain elevated on a 6-month context (Jan 24 +520.6 K vs. Oct 11 +355 K)

How bearish is it ?? traders hardly blinked at the news the US embassy in Baghdad came under attack from rocket fire overnight, mind you there was no damage and no threat of supply disruption.

This article was written by Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific Market Strategist at AxiTrader 

“WARS” Zones Of Another Kind, The Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome

So, traders will pivot from the other Wars, Trade and Iran, and into the “WARS” zones of another kind, the Wuhan Acute Respiratory Syndrome zone, where the latest travel restrictions now confine nearly 60 million Chinese.

Traders who would be typically discussing the weekend football results are now sadly focusing on mortality scores this morning. And trust me, absolutely no market professional likes making money off misery, but we all have a job to do to protect client’s savings. So, risk profiles need to be adjusted as the Wuhan frenzy factor kicks in, and risk markets enter the fear zone, a highly pandemic place in its own right. Even more so after President Xi calls the rapid spread of the virus a grave situation.

So defensive strategies will be priced at a premium out of the gate as investors shed China and global risk proportionally to the mounting reports of confirmed Wu- flu cases worldwide. Suggesting the market risk lights could start flickering between amber and red.

While much of the focus has been on the usual suspects’ luxury, travel, and tourism, just calculating the number of canceled tourist trips, declines in retail trade and similar factors are not sufficient to get a full picture of the impact of “WARS.” The structural changes to the global economy complicate the economic analysis of this because there are linkages within economies, across sectors, and across international trade and capital flows that need to be factored.

The biggest threat to the global economy is not just because the disease spreads quickly across countries through networks related to global travel. But also, because any economic shock to China’s colossal industrial and consumption engines will spread rapidly to other countries through the increased trade and financial linkages associated with globalization.

Unlike 2003 where SARS was less impactful on the developed world market, the rest of the world could feel the pinch this time around. And if the virus stunts China’s domestic economic growth in an echo of the SARS epidemic nearly 20 years ago, the falls could be even more precipitous than projected. And there are two reasons why: 1) consumption is now a more substantial part of China’s GDP, and 2) China’s overall growth trajectory. In 2002, retail sales accounted for 34% of nominal GDP; this share is now over 40%. And since China has been at the forefront of the global economic recovery this year, mostly driven by consumption, there could be a massive knock-on effect globally as China’s pivot from a brick and mortar economy to a services powerhouse means they import much more from abroad than they ever did

There has already been a significant markdown in China exposure and leisure stocks – as positioning had been extremely consensus in both. But not only could we see a multi-sector ASEAN equity market fire sale unfold, but a massive chunk of the nascent great global growth trade of 2020 could unwind. After all, a possible one percent haircut to China’s GDP is not a trivial matter, and indeed, when China sneezes, the world catches a cold.

According to the IMM commitment of traders, equity futures long positioning has continued to rise to new records, call volumes have surged to the highest since October 2018, and sentiment indicators are at the top of their historical band. Over the last three months, equity funds have also seen inflows of $75bn, the strongest since early 2018, with cyclical sectors being big beneficiaries, especially Tech, Financials, and Industrials. Indeed, the market’s fear factor has given way to greed, which could leave current positions precariously perched. Pullbacks of 3-5% in the S&P 500 have been typical every 2 to 3 months historically, but now we’re stretched to about 3.5 months, and if a significant Wu-Flu risk wobble occurs, we could see more profound positioning unwinds as a pandemic panic ensues.

There is nowhere that China’s economic influence is more on display than in Asia. The key driver of ASEAN’s steady growth over the past decade has been the rapid growth in bilateral trade with China. China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner in the past ten years, with two-way trade reaching $292 billion in the first half of 2019. And thus, makes the rest of Asia extremely vulnerable to a China economic slowdown.

And although I have the usual assortment of crazy trade ideas going through my head, unusual for me, I’m starting to think cash is the right place to be for the next few weeks instead of trying to stand in front of the Wuhan freight train. It’s too early in the year to go into a trading hole.

Oil market

Oil sold off aggressively last week on concerns about the impact on China’s economy of the outbreak of a SARS-like virus. Brent was down close to 6% on the week as trader moved to price in a worst-case scenario around Chinas travel and transportation demise. But now traders are left with the impossible task of factoring in the global demand impact as the outbreaks are getting reported worldwide, not to mention a potential 1 % hit to China GDP. Given the extremely tight linkage between China’s economic growth and its appetite for oil, there’s no place to hide for oil bulls and as we saw last week, taking a bullish leap of faith proved to be a fruitless exercise in frustration.

Since the Wu-Flu incubation period is estimated at between 5 days and two weeks, we’ll need to assess the true extent of the damage after the Lunar New Year holiday, so I suspect the balance of oil markets demand devastation risk remains on the wobble until then.

Gold Markets

Gold is performing well in large part because of the slump in US yields since the new year. This fact seems to be offsetting the impact of a strong US dollar to a more considerable degree. And with the Fed on hold, so a risk-off induced break lower in yields could be relatively unobstructed, which would be very bullish for gold.

Also, the details of Friday’s US PMI report were a little downcast. New business did rise, but at a slower pace. Both manufacturers and service providers recorded a more gradual expansion of new orders than expected. And new export orders placed with US private sector firms dipped into the contractionary territory at the start of 2020. Which supported also provided a fillip to gold priced on Friday

But a Wuhan flu triggered sell-off in equity markets will likely drive gold demand out of the gates today, and long-term strategic buyers could compound the move higher as they start to position for the Wu-flu to spread at a faster pace in the coming weeks. The more rapid pace of contagion will represent another significant headwind to global growth. Given how early we are in the newfound growth cycle, more policy easing will be needed to support growth, which could be viewed as bullish for gold. A policy response from the PBoC is a given. But the big question is if the Feds need to react at some point down the road. All of which would be bullish for gold

Still, the effects on the US economy are a long way’s off as trade flows between China and the US have been reduced to a trickle due to tariff wars. And with only two, at this juncture, reported flu cases stateside, it’s not going to have a significant impact on US consumers, but its the fear factor that’s impossible to gauge. None the less at this stage of contagion the Wu-Flu is unlikely to have a material effect on the FOMC policy.

But in case you needed more reasons to buy gold this week, all eyes and ears will be honed on Chair Powell’s FOMC presser. Still, more specifically, Powell will be grilled about the financial stability risks created via the Fed’s liquidity injection due to balance sheet expansion.

There’s no blueprint for unwinding the balance sheet without some element of risk. But the fear heading into this FOMC meeting is a communication misstep. At some point, the Fed will need to communicate a temporary pause in the Fed’s repo activities as it can’t go on forever. Still, a misstatement could easily trigger a huge adverse market reaction. This in itself demands some protection either via long gold or downside USDJPY structures.

ASEAN currency markets

Depending on how widespread the outbreak gets, we could see more shifts in the market long ASEAN axes with tourist-heavy THB and the global growth-sensitive TWD as most vulnerable in this case.

The preferred way to trade this through FX is THB – with the economy dependent on tourism, the loss over China New Year will weaken GDP and weigh on the Baht, precipitously.

The THB remains the most exposed to the new coronavirus outbreak as Thailand is a top destination for Wuhan tourists. Analysis of seat capacity on flights by OAG shows that the two largest international markets are Thailand, with nearly 107,000 seats and Japan with 67,000 seats available.
Coronavirus – Tracking Down the Bug (OAG)

Other analysts estimates suggest a 3% haircut to tourists during the Lunar New Year holiday week.

But if the virus stunts economic growth in an echo of the SARS epidemic narrative and triggers a deeper slowdown in China and weakens the RMB. Then the Yuan correlated basket of KRW and MYR have the most to lose so we could see a further unwinding of capital market risk in South Korea and Malaysia this week.

G-10 Currency Markets

G10 FX vols are holding in for now in though spot markets will be quiet in Asia due to the Lunar New Year holidays across the region. Implied levels are already low, and concerns regarding the new coronavirus outbreak continue, so market makers do not want to be short vol just in case fear escalation. If the virus outbreak continues to expand, it could significantly impact the currency market where the safe-haven JPY and CHF should shine while the USD will attract its lion share of safe-haven flows. I don’t like either of those trades mind you 1) due to Japan’s economic proximity to ground zero, and 2) the SNB doesn’t care about the US Treasury currency manipulators tag.

The Euro continues to struggle even in the face of a moon shot on this week’s ZEW data, and while hints of a move towards a symmetric inflation target are a small positive within the context of the ECB policy review. Still, without a more supportive fiscal policy input and a bounce in rates, the Euro could languish.

But the Euro has been a critical funding currency of the “carry trade” this year, especially into the ASEAN basket. Hence, as local currency bullish bets unwind, it could add some support to the underlying EUR risk as those shorts get covered.

As for the market short dollar narrative, the US dollar will undoubtedly be a big talking point during the US presidential election, and the Fed is likely to end up cutting rates following the strategy review. But these events are later in the year, and for now, it’s hard to fight safe-haven US bond driven currency inflows.

AxiCorp’s Innes discusses Wu-Flu on morning podcast 6:23 min

Gold Daily News: Thursday, January 16

Yesterday’s U.S. and China Phase One trade deal signing ceremony brought a lot of attention, but little has happened in gold and silver. However, we saw big movements in platinum and palladium. The first broke sharply above $1,000 mark as it gained almost 4% and the latter has reached yet another new record high nearing $2,200 mark.

Right now, the price of gold is flat and silver is retracing some of yesterday’s advance. On the other hand, both platinum and palladium extend their short-term gains this morning.

Today, the markets will await the U.S. Retail Sales number. It is supposed to be the most important piece of economic data this week. But that’s not all. At 8:30 a.m. we will also get the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and just before that, at 7:30 the European Central Bank will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. Then, the ECB President Lagarde will speak at 1:00 p.m. Last but not least, at 9:00 p.m. there will be China’s GDP number release.

Check more of our free articles on our website – just drop by and have a look. We encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter, too – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!

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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care


Chapter 6 “Expanding Trade.”

The Story?

But if there a story to be told, its the Phase One trade deal brings with it several issues for global trade. First, existing tariffs on the majority of Chinese goods remain in place. More importantly, if the overly ambitious purchase targets are reached, it suggests other countries will lose out as Chinese demand for their products rotates towards the US.

Still, the questions around the US tech in the supply chain remains unanswered. So, can China realistically hit these targets, especially when US firms are more motivated to produce abroad while China is trying to wean itself off a dependence on US technologies? Or does it even matter?? But it’s all here in black and white The Trade Agreement  chapter 6 is worth a read.  

But Phase one is not BAD  for risk and should boost global growth, plus the Feds will add all the money in the world to keep risk sentiment afloat, and when the ship lists, remember its an election year when US policy always turns positive. So onwards and upwards!!

China Credit

China December aggregate financing CNY2,100.0 bn vs. CNY1,650.0 bn consensus. December new yuan loans CNY1,140.0 bn vs. CNY1,200.0 bn consensus. December M2 money supply +8.7% y/y vs. +8.3% consensus. No noticeable impact on the forward market so far, although rates could nudge a little bit higher.

Asia currency markets

Fading short-term trade-war concerns and evaporating geopolitical risks continue to bolster global equity and credit markets. However, FX markets are more cautious; the rally in Asian currencies took a breather today.

The Chinese Yuan 

There was a test lower for USDCNH on the open, but no follow-through.

As we anticipated on this morning note, some clients are taking profit on their USD/EM downside positions, mainly in USDCNH and USDKRW, on the signing of the trade deal. I also think the proximity to LNY (I know it’s a week away) is causing traders to pare back risk as we know RMB liquidity will be sparse. With bullish targets reached, it’s unlikely we will see any significant move lower for no other reason than P2 discussion are unlikely to start until the LNY has passed.

My clients were asking me why I closed out of CNH so early, partly because I think we’ve hit a temporary floor on USDNCH, but primarily I don’t want to end up paying through the nose on a one-week funding squeeze carry. It could ease, but then again, it might not.

Plus, I’m weighing the odds of going dollar strategically long for only the 2nd time vs. the CNH since October 11. I think there is more risk tail risk than meets the eye, but no rush to trade given EM Asia vols continue moving lower across the board with the selloff accelerating in the last two days. One-month USDCNH is now at 3.9 from 4.6 at Wednesday’s open, 1m USDKRW at 6.0 from 6.6

The Korean Won

USDKRW is trading bid, with chatter on the street of corporate buying going through at the onshore fix market in the morning

The Indonesian Rupiah

Indonesian President Jokowi giveth and taketh after USDIDR gapped down to new lows as local bonds rally. President Jokowi hit the IDR rally pause button, saying a quick rupiah appreciation may hurt exports, so they must be cautious of rapid currency gains. Which immediately raised the yellow intervention flags and one-month USDIDR trades to 13700 from 13650 on this.

G10 Currency Markets

There has been a ton of USD selling across the board in the past 24 hours, but the market reaction has been “Meh.”

The Swiss Franc

Yesterday was the first day this year massive USD selling against EUR and CHF went through. The Euro flow is entirely uninteresting, given the tight follow-through ranges. But the fact there is any CHF buying at these lofty levels is the surprise indicating a considerable break down in the correlation with risk asset, which is both odd and bewitching. After all, positioning does seem to be the wrong way, but the resilience is unlikely to be offset by the SNB after the US Treasury report.  

British Pound 

Weaker UK inflation data yesterday has helped nudge market expectations of a BoE rate cut this month to above 65%. However, the UK PMIs on January 24 will remain important ahead of the MPC meeting on January 30. But I continue skeptical about building shorts as if we get a UK rate cut, it would not be the start of a cycle, but instead, a one-and-done insurance move before Mark Carney clocks out.

Despite the dovish BoE retort and weak data, policy transmission to FX markets has been poor lately. But the market could be getting that sense of déjà vu all over again that the opportunity of capital flows drifting back to the UK in 2020 is too big to ignore.

UBS Strategist Lefteris Farmakis suggests Governor Carney, rubberstamps a return to the ‘old normal’ for sterling, where the influence of economic data on monetary policy is its primary driver, and there you have it apparently  

Gold markets

The Stone Roses “Fools Gold” long hedge unwind trade is trying to unfold as gold is down around $5.00 buck from entry, although nothing to get excited about until the market clears the chunky stack of bids at $1550. So far, the 50 and 200 EMA have given way, but the bids are reasonably impressive down here.

Although we saw large dollar selling yesterday, there was a limited reaction, and at the heart of the trade deal, in my view lies a mildly positive dollar outlook on the margins over the short term. And I think this will be slightly negative for gold, but ultimately for gold, it’s where yields go and how the economic data evolves.

Time for the Stone Roses Trade, long gold hedge unwind “Fools Gold”?

Not all signals are aligned as risk sentiment endures, and while the long-term outlook for gold remains constructive, still, I’m struggling with the long gold strategy at the current price levels (1557-1558). In my view, the approach remains completely ill-defined at the moment, especially with S &P 500 making record highs. Until the yield on 10-year Inflation-indexed Treasuries starts to flash buying signals, bid on a deep dips remains a preferred strategy.

CTA’s are maxed long gold in their gold strategies, ETF positioning is stretched as is the IMM and given the Big gold trading banks’ ability to ramp up a gold paper and free up margins, the market could be ripe for a reversal if US bond yields don’t move lower quickly. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen this set up in the last 4-6 weeks.

This article was written by Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific Market Strategist at AxiTrader

The Battle Between Safe Havens And Risk On Continues

Chris Vermeulen joins Cory Fleck to share the way he is trading these markets and what he thinks will cause a breakout in either risk-on or risk-off.

Profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

Market News Report: December 23 – December 27, 2019

The week behind

Last week’s Monday’s and Friday’s U.S. economic data releases were pretty important for the financial markets. On Monday stocks, oil were gaining and the price of gold was declining. And on Friday the U.S. GDP number pushed the risk-on markets even higher. We highlighted those data releases in our last week’s Market News Report. The rest of the week has also been interesting. On Wednesday the Australian employment data release pushed the AUD higher, and then the Japanese Yen fell following overnight BOJ Monetary Statement, Policy Rate announcements. On Thursday the British Pound accelerated its short-term downtrend after the Monetary Policy Summary release.

The week ahead

What about the coming week? There won’t be any important economic data releases in the U.S. And in the middle of the week, most financial markets will be closed. However, on Thursday there will be a speech from the BOJ Governor Kuroda. On Monday, we will get the Canadian GDP number. Last but not least, oil traders will get the usual inventories data. Let’s take a look at key highlights:

• We will get a lot less economic data releases in the coming Christmas holiday week.
• On Tuesday and on Thursday the U.S. markets will close earlier.
• The most important releases will likely be Monday’s Canadian GDP number and Thursday’s Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda Speech
• Oil traders will await Tuesday’s and Friday’s inventories data releases.

You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of day trading, it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.

Our Market News Report consists of two different time-related perspectives. The investors’ perspective is only suitable for the long-term investments. The single economic data releases rarely cause major outlook changes. Hence, we will only see a handful of bold markings every week. On the other hand, the trader’s perspective is for traders and day-traders, because the assets’ prices are likely to react on a single piece of economic data. So, there will be a lot more bold markings on potentially market-moving news every week.
Investors’ Perspective

Investors’ Perspective

USD/JPY

Thursday, December 26
• Tentative, Japan – BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech

USD/CAD
Monday, December 23
• 8:30 a.m. Canada – GDP m/m

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today’s Market News Report – this analysis’ full version. The full Alert includes also the Traders’ Perspective which is very useful for the people who trade within shorter time frames. There’s no risk in subscribing right away, because there’s a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

Check more of our free articles on our website – just drop by and have a look. We encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter, too – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!

Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.