ETH Targets $1,300 on BTC Return to $17,000 Ahead of Powell’s Speech

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) joined the broader crypto market in a bullish crypto session on Tuesday.
  • A shift in sentiment towards the Chinese government’s lockdown plans and hopes of a December Fed pivot delivered price support.
  • This morning, bullish sentiment continued to drive demand for riskier assets, with Fed Chair Powell in the spotlight.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 4.20% on Tuesday. Reversing a 2.18% loss from Monday, ETH ended the day at $1,216. ETH wrapped up the day at $1,200 for the first time in three sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,157. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,145, ETH rallied to a late high of $1,227. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,194 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,221 before ending the day at $1,216.

On Tuesday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.48%. Reversing a 1.36% loss from Monday, BTC ended the day at $16,452. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the seventh consecutive day while ending a five-day losing streak.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $16,101. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $15,980, BTC rose to a mid-morning high of $16,545. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,465 before a pullback to sub-$16,400. However, a bullish end to the session saw BTC retest R1 before easing back.

Hopes of China easing lockdown measures supported a bullish Tuesday session, with the Hang Seng Index and CSI300 reversing Monday’s losses. Easing FTX contagion fears was also market positive, with investors brushing aside the news of BlockFi filing for bankruptcy.

Later today, the US economic calendar will continue to draw interest, with ADP nonfarm employment change, Q3 GDP, and JOLTs job openings in the spotlight. The labor market numbers will likely have more influence ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

Fed Chair Powell could have the final say, with talk of another 75-basis point rate hike likely to weigh on BTC and the broader market. Talk of a Fed pivot would support further upside, however.

The NASDAQ mini was up 10.50 points this morning, while BTC and ETH were in breakout mode.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 4.31% to $1,268. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rally from an early low of $1,212 to a high of $1,282.

ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,243 and briefly through the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,270.

ETH targets $1,300.
ETHUSD 301122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH has to avoid a fall through R1 and the $1,1200 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,270 and $1,300. An ETH return to $1,280 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to provide support.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH would likely test the Third Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,340.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,173 into play. However, barring an extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,170 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,130.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,060.

ETH resistance levels in play.
ETHUSD 301122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,277. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A move through R2 ($1,270) and the 200-day EMA ($1,277) would support a run at $1,300 and R3 ($1,340). However, a fall through R1 ($1,243) would bring the 100-day ($1,223) and the 50-day ($1,200) EMAs and S1 ($1,173) into play.

EMAs turning bullish.
ETHUSD 301122 4 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 2.64% to $16,886. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $16,446 before rising to a high of $17,109.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,631 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,810.

BTC returns to $17,000.
BTCUSD 301122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through R2, R1, and the $16,366 pivot to target the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $17,254. A hold onto $17,000 would signal an extended breakout session. However, BTC would need US stats, Fed Chair Powell, and friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout from the morning high of $17,109.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test resistance at $18,000 before any pullback.

A fall through the Major Resistance Levels and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,187 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $15,922. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,478.

BTC resistance levels in play.
BTCUSD 301122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a more bullish signal. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $16,800 this morning. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA flattening on the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 100-day EMA ($16,800) and R2 ($16,810) would support a run at R3 ($17,254) and the 200-day EMA ($17,550). However, a fallback through R2 ($16,810) and the 100-day EMA (16,799) would bring R1 ($16,631) and the 50-day EMA ($16,477) into view.

EMAs turning bullish.
BTCUSD 301122 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – DOGE and ETH Lead the Top Ten

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way, with ETH returning to $1,200.
  • Investor sentiment toward China eased, supporting a broad-based crypto rebound.
  • The crypto market cap rose by $13.3 billion to end the day at $789.4 billion.

It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten. DOGE led the way, with ETH also making a move. Despite the bullish sentiment, BTC fell short of $17,000 for a thirteenth consecutive session while avoiding sub-$16,000 for a seventh successive session.

US economic indicators failed to curtail the Tuesday rebound despite consumer confidence deteriorating. In November, the CB Consumer Confidence Index fell from 102.2 to 100.2.

However, while the crypto market enjoyed a bullish session, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day with a 0.59% loss. Apprehension ahead of today’s Fed Chair Powell speech weighed.

Easing jitters over China’s zero-COVID policy, supported by the Hang Seng and the CSI300, delivered the Tuesday crypto rebound. Easing FTX contagion risk also contributed, however.

NASDAQ decoupling.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 301122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Bounces Back as China Risk Aversion Abated

On Tuesday, the crypto market cap slid to an early low of $770.2 billion before rising to a late morning high of $800.1 billion.

Bullish sentiment throughout the morning session supported the market recovery of Monday’s losses.

However, a mixed afternoon session saw the market cap fall back to $785 before finding support. A bullish end to the session left the market cap up by $13.3 billion to $789.4 billion on the day.

Crypto market on the move
Total Market Cap 301122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Tuesday session for the crypto top ten.

DOGE led the way, rising by 6.74%, with ETH gaining 4.17%.

However, ADA (+0.98%), BNB (+0.65%), BTC (+1.48%), MATIC (+2.00%), and XRP (+2.36%) trailed the front runners.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Huobi token (HT) led the way, rallying by 8.1%, with ETH and DOGE among the front runners.

However, binaryX (BNX) led the way down, falling by 2.92%, with kucoin token (KCS) and nexo (NEXO) seeing losses of 1.95% and 2.50%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Eased on a Bullish Tuesday and Wednesday Morning

Over 24 hours, total liquidations slipped below normal levels. Sentiment towards China and FTX contagion delivered crypto market support, leading to the fall in liquidations.

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $73.29 million, down from $91.98 million on Tuesday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also decreased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 19,696 versus 34,626 on Tuesday morning. However, Liquidations were up over 12 and four hours and over one hour.

Crypto liquidations spike over the last hour.
Total Crypto Liquidations 301122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $30.63 million to $49.01 million, with four-hour liquidations up from $1.53 million to $37.42 million. One-hour liquidations jumped from $0.275 million $36.06 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market spikes in first hour of the morning.
Total Market Cap 301122 Hourly Chart

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Deliver No Surprises

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. On the data front, the German Ifo Business Climate Index drew interest ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes.

What Did ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Reveal?

There were no surprises today. ECB members view inflation as too high and see inflation staying above target for an extended time.

However, the ECB also noted that there were no visible signs of widespread second-round effects, and longer-term inflation expectations remained broader aligned with the 2% target.

Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook were on the upside; Inflation could see a further pickup over the medium term.

Amidst persistent inflation, economic activity likely slowed in Q3, and the ECB expects economic conditions to deteriorate further over the remainder of 2022 and early 2023. There are clear downside risks to growth in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, compared with September 2022 projections.

However, the minutes made no reference to another 75-basis point rate hike in December. The minutes showed that the future path should be based on the ‘evolving outlook for inflation and the economy, following a meeting-by-meeting approach.’

Members argued that the Governing Council should continue normalizing and tightening monetary policy in the case of a shallow recession but pause in the event of a prolonged and deep recession.

The minutes reflected the ECB’s stance on tackling inflation, saying,

“The ECB now needed to show equal determination when inflation was above the target, countering far too high inflation and preventing it from becoming entrenched, irrespective of a deteriorating outlook for economic activity.”

Concerning the December meeting, the minutes noted that the Governing Council would have more information available, with projections extending to 2025.

In the October ECB Press Conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the ECB would be able to look ahead once the staff projections were available in December.

How Did the EUR Respond to the Minutes?

The EUR/USD responded positively to the minutes, recovering from a pre-release low of $1.03818 to a post-release high of $1.04144. A willingness to stomach a shallow recession and determination to push ahead with normalization and tightening delivered support.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD was up 0.13% to $1.04084.

EUR/USD responds to ECB minutes.
241122 EURUSD 30 Minute Chart

Earlier in the day, German business sentiment figures surprised to the upside.

How Did the Ifo Business Climate Index Compare with the PMI Survey?

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index increased from 84.5 to 86.3 in November. Economists forecast a more modest rise to 85.0.

According to the November survey,

  • Pessimism regarding the coming months reduced markedly, suggesting that the German recession could be less severe.
  • On Wednesday, the prelim November Composite PMI survey revealed a similar trend. The level of pessimism continued to improve from a September low.

As with the Markit survey, sentiment towards current conditions was dire. The Ifo Current Assessment Sub-Index fell from 94.2 to 93.1. The Markit survey highlighted widespread concern about the effects of high inflation, rising interest rates, and heightened levels of uncertainty on investments and economic conditions.

The pickup in business sentiment could incentivize the ECB to continue hiking rates to bring inflation to target. The EUR/USD responded positively to the numbers.

ADA Price Prediction: A Return to $0.335 to Bring $0.340 into Play

Key Insights:

  • On Saturday, ADA rose by 0.61%, marking the fourth gain from six sessions.
  • A quiet Saturday session left ADA in the hands of Cardano network updates and broader crypto market sentiment.
  • However, the technical indicators remained bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, leaving $0.300 in view.

On Saturday, ADA rose by 0.61%. Following a 0.31% gain on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.328. Notably, ADA fell short of $0.340 for the third time since the collapse of FTX.

Tracking the broader crypto market, ADA fell to an early morning low of $0321. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.320, ADA rose to a late high of $0.332. Coming up against the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.332, ADA eased back to end the day at sub-$0.330.

Stablecoin News Delivers Further Support

It was a quiet Saturday session, with no crypto events to influence ADA or the broader market.

The lack of events left news of the planned launch of a US Dollar-backed stablecoin to resonate. On Friday, EMURGO, the commercial arm of Cardano, announced the planned launch, saying,

“EMRUGO, the official commercial arm and a founding entity of the Cardano blockchain, announces the planned launch of its new US Dollar-backed stablecoin, USDA. A first fully fiat-backed, regulatory-compliant stablecoin in the Cardano ecosystem.”

EMURGO went on to say,

“EMURGO has partnered with a regulated financial services company based in the United States to custody cash deposits, assuring the stablecoin is fully compliant and adheres to regulatory guidelines.”

While the news of the stablecoin launch was positive, project migration onto the Cardano network remains an investor focal point. As November nears its end, investors will look for a pickup in project numbers to affirm Charles Hoskinson’s assurances of an influx following the Vasil hard fork.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.30% to $0.329. A mixed morning saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.327 before rising to a high of $0.331.

ADA finds early support.
ADAUSD 201122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.327 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.333. However, a return to $0.335 would signal a breakout session. ADA would also need the support of the broader crypto market to break out from R1.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.338 and $0.40 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.349.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.322 into play. However, barring a contagion-fueled sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.320 and Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.316.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.305.

ADA resistance levels in play above the pivot.
ADAUSD 201122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.336. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.333) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.336) and R2 ($0.338). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ADA under pressure and sub-$0.300 in view.

EMAs remain bearish.
ADAUSD 201122 4-Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – BNB Leads a Mixed Top Ten Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten, with Binance coin (BNB) leading the way.
  • An eventless day in the crypto market left the broader crypto market in a range-bound pattern throughout the session.
  • The crypto market cap rose by $3.5 billion to end the day at $790.2 billion.

It was a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten. Binance coin (BNB) led the way, while dogecoin (DOGE) fell for the third day in a row. Notably, BTC fell short of $17,000 for the second consecutive day.

Australia and the UK are among the nations revisiting crypto regulations. After increased regulatory activity in late 2021, which contributed to the beginning of the crypto winter, there had been little activity before the collapse of FTX.

According to the Financial Review, Australian regulators plan to roll out regulations for exchanges in 2023 in response to the FTX collapse. The government will reportedly ‘introduce custodial and exchange legislation.’

In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority aims to take a harder line by proposing to ban crypto platforms.

The FCA has reportedly rejected or withdrawn 85% of license applications from crypto trading firms. Before its collapse, FTX could not operate in the UK for not having FCA approval.

In the US, CFTC Commissioner Mersinger has called for action and for lawmakers to initiate collaboration between the respective regulatory authorities.

Away from the crypto market, there were no US economic indicators to distract investors. On Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day flat.

 

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 191122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Ends a Two-Day Losing Streak on a Quiet Friday Session

It was a bullish Friday session. The crypto market rose to an early high of $803.9 billion before sliding to a late afternoon low of $780.6 billion. However, finding late support, the crypto market moved back into positive territory.

The late recovery gave the crypto market cap a modest $3.5 billion gain to end the day at $790.2 billion.

Crypto market cap holds steady.
Total Market Cap 191122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a mixed Friday session for the crypto top ten.

BNB led the way, rising by 2.24%. ADA (+0.31%), BTC (+0.01%), ETH (+0.96%), MATIC (+0.64%), and XRP (+0.10%) saw modest gains.

However, DOGE bucked the trend, falling by 0.12%

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a mixed session.

Chiliz (CHZ) led the way, rallying by 15.73%, with chain (XCN) and algorand (ALGO) seeing gains of 8.84% and 11.31%, respectively.

However, apecoin (APE) led the way down, sliding by 7.69%, with kava (KAVA) and solana (SOL) seeing losses of 5.18% and 2.71%, respectively.

24-Hour Liquidations Continued to Slide as Trading Volumes Tumble

Over 24 hours, total liquidations fell further below-usual levels as trading volumes continued to trend lower.

Crypto trading volumes
Trading Volumes 191122

At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $33.67 million versus $43.31 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also declined. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 14,614 versus 19,228 on Friday morning. Liquidations were down over one and twelve hours while up over four hours.

Crypto liquidations fall further.
Total Crypto Liquidations 191122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations fell from $24.16 million to $16.84 million, with one-hour liquidations down $0.580 million to $0.370 million. However, four-hour liquidations rose from $2.54 million to $2.69 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market finds late support.
Total Market Cap 191122 Hourly Chart

Jeremy Hunt and the Autumn Statement Sink the Pound

It was a big afternoon for the GBP/USD, with Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement drawing market interest.

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer failed to fill the cracks, with the OBR delivering gloomy growth forecasts off the back of the Chancellor’s budget.

Jeremy Hunt opened his Autumn Statement to Parliament by saying Britain is now in recession. Hunt’s opening comments and gloomy OBR growth forecasts weighed heavily on the GBP/USD.

Considering the Autumn Statement, the OBR forecasts the UK economy to slow by 1.4% in 2023 before rising by 1.3% in 2024. In March, the OBR projected economic growth of 1.8% in 2023.

The OBR also projects real household disposable income to fall by 3.1% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023, another negative for the UK economy.

However, the markets showed little interest in large portions of the Autumn statement.

According to the Chancellor, the OBR sees the Autumn Budget statement easing pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates. The Chancellor expects pressure on mortgage rates to soften, supporting disposable income.

Other notable points from the Autumn Statement included,

  • Lowering the threshold for the top income tax bracket from £150,000 to £125,000, pushing an additional 250,000 into the top tax bracket.
  • Energy Windfall Tax will increase from 25% to 35% from January 1 until March 2028, raising £14 billion.
  • Maintain defense spending at a minimum of 2% of GDP.
  • Public spending to grow but at a slower pace than the economy.
  • Council tax increases.
  • Protect pension triple lock, with state pensions to increase with inflation.
  • No cuts in capital budgets.
  • Minimum wage to increase by 9.7%.
  • Investment in infrastructure, an increase in investment in schools, and more for the NHS.

Reaction to the Autumn Statement Raises Red Flags for the UK Economy

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD was down 1.00% to $1.17959.

GBP/USD on the slide.
171122 GBPUSD Daily Chart

Before the Autumn Statement, the GBP/USD rose to an early high of $1.19581. However, market reaction to the Autumn Statement sent the Pound to a low of $1.17845.

While the Pound responded negatively to the Statement, the market can take comfort in knowing that the Government will work hand-in-hand with the Bank of England to bring inflation to target.

However, whether the Autumn Statement takes the first steps in reuniting the Tory Party remains to be seen.

ADA Price Prediction: Breaking Down Resistance at $0.345 Remains Key

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, cardano (ADA) gained 1.51%, marking the third gain from eight sessions.
  • The launch of the Binance recovery fund and US economic indicators provided ADA support.
  • However, the technical indicators remained bearish, with ADA sitting below the 50-day EMA, leaving $0.300 in view.

On Tuesday, ADA rose by 1.51%. Following a 0.91% gain from Monday, ADA ended the day at $0.337. Notably, ADA wrapped up the day at sub-$0.400 for the seventh consecutive session while avoiding the November 9 low of $0.309.

A mixed morning saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.329. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.317, ADA rose to an early afternoon high of $0.344. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.345, ADA fell back to $0.332 before wrapping up the day at $0.337.

Limited Input Output HK Updates Leave ADA Range-Bound

Input Output HK (IOHK) updates have been few and far between, leaving ADA range-bound in recent sessions. While hopes of a large influx of projects onto the Cardano network continue to limit the downside, ADA has failed to break a downward trend on the daily highs.

Total Value Locked (TVL) and NFT stats have likely contributed to the current ADA price trends.

According to DeFiLlama, the TVL stood at $55.98 million this morning. While up 3.24% over 24 hours, the TVL has tumbled 21.5% since $71.27 million on November 6. In contrast, the market cap is down 19.71% over the same period. A pickup in TVL would support a breakout from sub-$0.350 as crypto market conditions stabilize.

ADA TVL sees modest upswing
ADA TVL 161122

However, the TVL movement aligns with the broader market, which is down 21.77% to $43.76 billion over the same period.

NFT numbers have also seen a downward trend, according to OpenCNFT, which has also capped the upside.

ADA NFTs
ADA NFT 161122

And finally, the most recent weekly development figures showed little movement in project numbers on the Cardano network. Charles Hoskinson’s promise of an influx in projects would need to materialize to support a breakout from the broader market trend.

Until there is a shift in the above, price action will likely remain in the hands of the broader crypto market. While contagion fear lingers, US economic indicators and the NASDAQ Composite Index could provide direction later today.

Retail sales figures for October will draw interest. On Tuesday, ADA responded to US wholesale inflation numbers suggesting more orderly market conditions. However, the threat of another crypto exchange collapse leaves downside risks in play.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 1.78% to $0.343. A bullish morning saw ADA rise from an early low of $0.336 to a high of $0.344. The First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.344 capped the upside.

ADA on the move.
ADAUSD 161122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to avoid the $0.337 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.344 and the Tuesday high of $0.344. A move through R1 would signal a possible breakout. However, ADA would also need the support of the broader market for a sustained rally.

In case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.352 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.367.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.329 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.325 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.322.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.307.

ADA resistance levels in play.
ADAUSD 161122 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.351. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.344) would bring the 50-day EMA ($0.351) and R2 ($0.352) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$0.330 support levels in view.

EMAs bearish.
ADAUSD 161122 4-Hourly Chart

XRP Bulls Target $0.40 on SEC v Ripple and Fed Policy Sentiment

Key Insights:

  • On Tuesday, XRP rose for the third time in eleven sessions, ending the day at $0.38848.
  • Contagion fear eased further on the launch of the Binance recovery fund, leaving XRP in the hands of sentiment towards the SEC v Ripple case.
  • However, the technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$0.35.

On Tuesday, XRP rose by 3.07%. Following a 10.76% rally from Monday, XRP ended the day at $0.38848. Notably, XRP ended the day at sub-$0.40 for the seventh consecutive session while avoiding the red for the third time in eleven sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.36658. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3389, XRP rallied to a late afternoon high of $0.39747. XRP briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3969 before ending the day at sub-$0.39 levels.

Going into the Tuesday session, market jitters over the collapse of FTX and contagion eased. Monday’s news of Binance launching a recovery fund provided price support. Materially, the shift in sentiment allowed investors to refocus on US economic indicators and the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Amicus Brief Filings and US Economic Indicators Deliver XRP Support

Amicus Brief filings drew interest following the Court ruling to extend the deadline for several counterparties until November 18.

The Crypto Council for Innovation, Reaper Financial, Veri DAO, six XRP holders, Paradigm Operations, the Blockchain Association, and Coinbase filed Amicus Briefs.

For XRP holders, the Court’s decision to allow the filings after the previous November 11 deadline was XRP positive. The move suggested that the Amicus Brief filings could have more weight in the Court, which tipped the scales further in favor of the defendants.

On Tuesday, US economic indicators also provided XRP price support. Softer wholesale inflation fueled the bets of a December Fed pivot, delivering NASDAQ Composite Index and crypto support.

However, risk aversion hit the global financial markets this morning. News of a Russian missile attack on Poland and an emergency roundtable at the G20 Summit tested buyer appetite.

News updates from the G20, US economic indicators, and SEC v Ripple news need consideration today. Investors will also have to monitor the reports of other crypto exchanges announcing withdrawal freezes. While the Binance recovery fund is a cushion, details about the fund remain limited until now.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was down 2.31% to $0.37952. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.38910 before falling to a low of $0.37926.

XRP under pressure.
XRPUSD 161122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

XRP needs to move through the $0.3842 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4018. A return to $0.39 would signal a bullish session. Geopolitics, contagion, the SEC v Ripple case, and US stats are in focus.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls would take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4151. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4460.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3709 in play. However, barring another extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.3650 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3533. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3224.

XRP support levels in play below the pivot.
XRPUSD 161122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.38478. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were mixed.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38478) would bring R1 ($0.4018) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.38478) would leave S1 ($0.3709) in view.

EMAs bearish.
XRPUSD 161122 4 Hourly Chart

 

China Retail Sales and Industrial Production Leave the AUD/USD in the Red

It was a busy morning on the economic calendar for the Aussie Dollar and riskier Assets. The Chinese economy was back in the spotlight, with industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales figures in focus.

The numbers were bearish for riskier assets, with industrial production up 5.0% year-over-year in October versus 6.3% in September. Economists forecast a 5.2% increase. Fixed asset investments also came in weaker, rising by 5.8% versus 5.9% in September.

Lockdown measures impacted spending, with retail sales down 0.5% year-over-year versus a 2.5% increase in September. Economists forecast a 1.0% increase.

The Aussie Dollar remained in the red as a result of the bearish numbers. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down 0.08% to $0.66939, up marginally from an early low of $0.66854.

AUD/USD remains in the red.
151122 AUDUSD Daily Chart

The latest stats from China followed the RBA meeting minutes, which were also Aussie Dollar negative. According to the latest minutes, the RBA delivered a smaller-than-expected rate hike this month ‘partly due to concerns of falling housing prices hurting consumer spending.’

COVID-19 Restriction Measures Remain Headwind for Commodities

While the stats were weaker, market reaction was more muted than usual. Plans to ease COVID restrictions cushioned the downside, though confusion remains as the number of COVID cases surged.

According to Reuters, a weekend surge in new COVID-19 cases has created uncertainty over whether the government will stick to the new restriction plans. Reportedly, Beijing was among the big cities to report record infections.

On Friday, China’s National Health Commission eased restriction measures, announcing shorter quarantine times for arriving travelers and close contact cases. However, the latest rise in new cases could force the government to reintroduce tighter restriction measures that would be Aussie Dollar negative and weigh on commodities.

This morning, WTI was down 0.55% to $85.40, with Brent down 0.25% to $92.91.

However, while crude was on the back foot, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and CSI 300 stood their ground. At the time of writing, the HSI was up 1.70%, with the CSI 300 up 0.15%. The NASDAQ mini also brushed aside the weaker numbers, rising by 63.75 points.

EUR/USD Eyes GDP and ZEW Economic Sentiment to Target $1.0450

It is a busy day for the EUR/USD on the economic calendar. Following the better-than-expected Eurozone industrial production figures on Monday, second estimate Q3 GDP numbers will be in the spotlight. Considering the EU Commission Growth Forecasts, revisions to the numbers will influence.

Other stats include finalized October inflation figures for France and Spain, wholesale inflation numbers for Germany, euro area trade, and ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers for Germany and the Eurozone.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment figures will have the most influence barring a spike in wholesale inflation. However, the ZEW numbers coincide with the release of the Eurozone’s second estimate Q3 GDP figures.

In line with or better-than-expected ZEW and upward revisions to GDP numbers should deliver EUR/USD support.

Economists forecast the Eurozone economy to expand by 0.3% in Q3, which is in line with the first estimate. However, economists forecast Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index to rise from -59.2 to -50.

Ahead of today’s numbers, market risk sentiment will provide direction. Industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales figures from China will set the tone.

Today’s economic calendar will likely draw the interest of ECB members. ECB member Frank Elderson speaks today (1830 CET).

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.01% to $1.03255. The EUR/USD fell to a low of $1.03246 before steadying.

EUR/USD holds steady.
EURUSD 151122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD needs to avoid the $1.0319 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0366. Economic data would need to be EUR/USD positive to support a breakout from the Monday high of $1.03586.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0406 and $1.0450. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0493.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0279 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the EUR/USD pair should avoid sub-$1.02. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0232 should limit the downside.

The third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0144.

EUR/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
EURUSD 151122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bullish signal. The EUR/USD sits above the 50-day EMA ($1.01102). The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($1.01102) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.036) to bring R2 ($1.0406) and $1.0450 into view. However, a fall through S1 ($1.0279) would bring S2 ($1.0232).

Barring a flight to safety, the EUR/USD should avoid S3 ($1.0144) and the 50-day EMA ($1.01102) into play. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.99546.

EMAs bullish.
EURUSD 151122 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busier day ahead on the US economic calendar, with wholesale inflation and NY Empire State Manufacturing numbers in focus. We expect the wholesale inflation figures to have more influence.

Following last week’s CPI report, a spike in wholesale inflation could bring into question the market’s bets of the December Fed pivot.

With the probability of a 75-basis point December rate hike sliding to 19.4%, hawkish Fed chatter could catch the markets by surprise. FOMC member Barr and Fed Governor Cook speak today.

On Sunday, FOMC member Christopher Waller reportedly said that the market focus should be on the “endpoint” of rate hikes and not the pace adding that the Fed is ‘a ways off’ the endpoint.

 

Binance Announces Crypto Recovery Fund to Deliver ETH and BTC Rebounds

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) saw red on Sunday, with ETH revisiting sub-$1,200 before ending the week at $1,219.
  • FTX news updates and contagion fear continued to grip the crypto market on Sunday.
  • However, sentiment shifted this morning on the news of Binance launching a recovery fund to shield the market from the anticipated fallout of the FTX collapse.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.87% on Sunday. Following a 2.33% loss on Saturday, ETH ended the week down 22.3% to $1,219.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,272. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,284, ETH slid to a low of $1,199. EHT fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,231 and briefly through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,207.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.80%. Following a 1.37% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the week down 21.9% to $16,345. Notably, BTC logged the seventh loss from eight sessions and ended the day at sub-$17,000 for the third time since 2020.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,956. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $17,068, BTC slid to a late low of $16,255. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,597 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,381 to end the day at $16,345.

FTX updates and contagion fear continued to weigh on BTC and ETH on Sunday. A lack of progress toward an FTX bailout added to the bearish sentiment.

Binance Announces the Launch of an Industry Recovery Fund

However, market conditions turned bullish this morning. Binance CEO CZ announced the launch of an industry recovery fund. CZ said,

“To reduce further cascading negative effects from FTX, Binance is forming an industry recovery fund, to help projects who are otherwise strong, but in a liquidity crisis. More details to come soon. In the meantime, please contact Binance labs if you think you qualify,”

CZ added,

“Also welcome other industry players with cash who wants to co-invest. Crypto is not going away. We are still here. Let’s rebuild.”

The crypto market responded favorably to the announcement, jumping by $41.6 billion in response to the news. A bearish morning had seen the crypto market tumble to a low of $757.9 billion before hitting a high of $799.5 billion.

Binance news delivers crypto market support.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 3.25% to $1,295. A mixed morning saw ETH fall to a low of $1,169 before rallying to a high of $1,259.

ETH turns bullish
ETHUSD 141122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,230 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,261. An ETH move through R1 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, ETH moves through the afternoon session will depend on the details of the Binance recovery fund.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,303 and resistance at $1,350. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,376.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,188 back into play. However, barring another extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,150. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,157 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level sits at $1,084.

ETH resistance levels in play.
ETHUSD 141122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,328. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($1,261) would bring R2 ($1,303) and the 50-day EMA ($1,328) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ETH under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
ETHUSD 141122 4 Hourly Chart

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

BTC was up 2.86% to $16,812. A mixed morning saw BTC fall to a low of $15,822 before rebounding to strike a high of $16,850.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,782.

BTC targets return to $17,000.
BTCUSD 141122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to hold above R1 and the $16,519 pivot to target $17,000 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $17,220. A return to $17,000 would signal a bullish afternoon session. Further details of the Binance recovery fund would draw plenty of interest.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC would likely test resistance at $17,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,921.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,081 back into play. Barring another extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$15,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $15,818 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,117.

BTC resistance levels in play.
BTCUSD 141122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $17,866. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A BTC move through R2 ($17,220) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($17,866). However, BTC would need further details on the recovery fund to break down resistance at $17,500. Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave BTC under pressure and S1 ($16,081) in view.

EMAs bearish.
BTCUSD 141122 4 Hourly Chart

US Mortgage Rates Return to 7% Following the October CPI Report

In the week ending November 10, mortgage rates rose for the tenth time in twelve weeks. 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased by 13 basis points to 7.08%. In the week prior, 30-year fixed rates fell by 13 basis points to 6.95%.

Following the latest increase, rates are up 209 basis points from the August 3 most recent low of 4.99%. 30-year fixed rates were up 410 basis points year-over-year.

Economic Data from the Week

It was a particularly quiet first half of the week on the economic calendar, with no economic indicators influencing US Treasuries and yields.

The lack of stats left the markets to consider Fed pivot bets ahead of Thursday’s heavily anticipated US CPI report.

Ahead of the CPI report, bets of a 75-basis point rate hike were evenly split, allowing the upswing in mortgage rates. Hawkish Fed Chair Powell comments from the week prior resonated.

However, while rates were up in the week, the US CPI report for October will likely sink mortgage rates this week. The US annual inflation rate softened from 8.2% to 7.7% in October. The markets responded strongly to the numbers, with the probability of a December 75-basis point interest rate hike falling from 48% to 17.0%.

Freddie Mac Rates

The weekly average rates for new mortgages, as of November 10, 2022, were quoted by Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates increased by 13 basis points to 7.08%. This time last year, rates stood at 2.98%. The average fee increased from 0.8 points to 0.9 points.
  • 15-year fixed rates rose by nine basis points to 6.38%. Rates were up by 411 basis points from 2.27% a year ago. The average fee decreased from 1.2 points to 1.0 points.
  • 5-year fixed rates increased by 11 basis points to 6.06%. Rates were up by 353 basis points from 2.53% a year ago. The average fee remained unchanged at 0.2 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • The housing market is the most interest-sensitive segment of the US economy.
  • Homebuyers continue to face the impact of rates as home sales slide at the year-end.
  • Freddie Mac does not see housing market conditions improving before the end of the year.

Mortgage Bankers’ Association Rates

For the week ending November 4, 2022, the rates were:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed with conforming loan balances increased from 7.06% to 7.14%. Points rose from 0.73 to 0.77 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates backed by FHA rose from 6.70% to 6.86%. Points increased from 1.18 to 1.37 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year rates for jumbo loan balances decreased from 6.55% to 6.50%. Points rose from 0.70 to 0.78 (incl. origination fee) for 80% LTV loans.

Weekly figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased by 0.1% in the week ending November 4. The Index increased by 1% in the week prior.

The Refinance Index fell by 4% and was 87% lower than the same week one year ago. In the previous week, the Index increased by 0.2%.

The refinance share of mortgage activity declined from 28.6% to 28.1%. The refinance share increased from 28.2% to 28.6% in the previous week.

According to the MBA,

  • Mortgage rates increased in response to the Fed rate hike to tackle inflation.
  • The 30-year fixed rate remained above seven percent for the third consecutive week.
  • Purchase applications rose for the first time in seven weeks but remained close to 2015 lows.
  • Higher rates and economic uncertainty left prospective homebuyers on the sidelines.

For the week ahead

It is a quiet start to the week on the economic data front. On Tuesday, wholesale inflation figures will draw interest ahead of retail sales on Wednesday.

However, following last week’s US CPI report and bets of a December pivot, the numbers are unlikely to offset the effects of the CPI report on yields and mortgage rates.

In contrast, FOMC member chatter could shift sentiment. While the markets have bet on a Fed pivot, inflation remains elevated. With an unemployment rate of 3.7% and better-than-expected economic growth in Q3, the hawks may talk up the need for another 75-basis point hike before taking the foot off the gas.

FOMC members Waller, Brainard, Cook, Barr, and Williams speak this week.

DOGE Targets a Return to $0.10 on Elon Musk Plug and Twitter Plans

Key Insights:

  • Dogecoin (DOGE) bucked the broader market trend on Saturday, while shiba inu coin (SHIB) fell for the seventh time in eight sessions.
  • News of an FTX hack left SHIB in the red, while an Elon Musk plug delivered a bullish DOGE session.
  • However, the technical indicators remain bearish, with the EMAs signaling further losses.

On Saturday, dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 3.66%. Partially reversing a 5.25% loss from Friday, DOGE ended the day at $0.08790. Notably, DOGE ended the day at sub-$0.10 for the fifth consecutive session.

A bearish start to the day saw DOGE fall to a mid-morning low of $0.0783. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0786, DOGE rallied to a late morning high of $0.0948. DOGE briefly broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0921 before ending the day at sub-$0.0900.

Shiba inu coin (SHIB) fell by 3.24% on Saturday. Following a 3.14% loss on Friday, SHIB ended the day at $0.00000955.

A bearish start to the day saw SHIB fall to a mid-morning low of $0.00000925. SHIB fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000935 before rising to a late morning high of $0.00000992. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00001042, SHIB slipped back to end the day at $0.00000955.

Elon Musk delivered a DOGE boost on Saturday. Discussing the FTX collapse on Twitter Space, Musk plugged dogecoin, “DOGE to the Moon.”

Twitter (TWTR) remains the key price driver for DOGE. Investors anticipate the resumption of the crypto integration plan, which would bring DOGE on board and drive adoption.

Earlier this month, Twitter paused crypto integration plans, sending DOGE tumbling ahead of the FTX collapse, but a resumption is likely, which has cushioned the downside.

While DOGE found support, SHIB saw yet more losses. FTX news updates continued to pressure SHIB and the broader crypto market. On Saturday, news hit the wires of an FTX hack, with FTX affirming unauthorized account activity.

Today, FTX remains the focal point, with contagion news likely to put DOGE and SHIB under selling pressure.

Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Action

At the time of writing, DOGE was up 1.02% to $0.0888.

DOGE holds steady.
DOGEUSD 131122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

DOGE needs to avoid the $0.0870 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.0957. A move through the Saturday high of $0.0948 would signal a possible breakout. However, FTX updates need to be crypto-friendly to support a return to $0.09.

In the event of an extended afternoon breakout session, the bulls could take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.1035. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.1200.

A fall through the pivot ($0.0870) would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.0792 into play. However, barring another extended sell-off, DOGE should avoid sub-$0.0750 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.0705.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.0540.

DOGE resistance levels in play above the pivot.
DOGEUSD 131122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs sent a bearish signal, with DOGE sitting below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.0900. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA. The price signals were bearish.

A move through the 200-day EMA ($0.0900) would bring R1 ($0.0957) and the 50-day EMA ($0.0965) into play. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($0.0900) would bring S1 ($0.0792) into view.

EMAs bearish.
DOGEUSD 131122 4 Hourly Chart

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Price Action

At the time of writing, SHIB was up 1.15% to $0.00000966. A mixed start to the day saw SHIB fall to an early low of $0.00000949 before rising to a high of $0.00000968.

SHIB finds support.
SHIBUSD 131122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

SHIB needs to avoid the $0.00000957 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.00000990 and the Saturday high of $0.00000992. A move through the Saturday high of $0.00000992 would signal a bullish afternoon session.

In case of an extended rally, SHIB would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.00001024. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.00001091.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.00000923 into play. Barring another extended sell-off, SHIB should avoid sub-$0.00000900 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.00000890.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.00000823.

SHIB resistance levels in play above the pivot.
SHIBUSD 131122 Hourly Chart

The EMAs send a bearish signal, with SHIB sitting below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.00001051. This morning, the 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through R1 ($0.00000990) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.00001024) and the 50-day EMA ($0.00001051). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave SHIB under pressure.

EMAs bearish.
SHIBUSD 131122 4 Hourly Chart

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – XRP and SOL Enjoy NASDAQ Support

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten, with XRP and SOL leading the way.
  • US economic indicators delivered perfect numbers for the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market.
  • The crypto market cap surged by $53.5 billion to end the day at $1,010 billion.

It was a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten. SOL and XRP led the charge. BTC rose for the second time in six sessions and returned to $21,000 for the first time since October 29.

US economic indicators delivered the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market support. The all-important US jobs report was perfect for riskier assets.

In October, average earnings rose by 4.7% year-over-year versus 5.0% in September, with the unemployment rate up from 3.5% to 3.7%. The unemployment rate rise came despite the participation rate falling from 62.3% to 62.2% and a 261k increase in nonfarm payrolls.

Notably, the earnings figures showed early signs of easing price pressure that could allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas.

In response, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day up 1.28%, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.36%.

NASDAQ correlation.
Total Market Cap – NASDAQ – 051122 Daily Chart

Crypto Market Hits $1 Trillion for Second Time Since September 13

It was a bullish Friday session. The crypto market surged from an early low of $953.0 billion to a late high of $1,021 billion before easing back. The US jobs report drove demand for cryptos on hopes that easing wage growth and rising unemployment could allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas.

While coming off the day’s high, the crypto market surged by $53.5 billion to end the day at $1,010 billion. It was only the second visit to $1 trillion since September 13, which coincided with the bearish August US CPI report.

Crypto market cap returns to $1 trillion.
Total Market Cap 051122 Daily Chart

The Crypto Market Movers and Shakers from the Top Ten and Beyond

It was a bullish Friday session for the crypto top ten.

SOL and XRP led the way, with gains of 9.38% and 11.20%, respectively.

ADA (+8.21%), BNB (+7.62%), BTC (+4.66%), and ETH (+7.43%) also found strong support, while DOGE (+2.83%) trailed.

From the CoinMarketCap top 100, it was a bullish session.

Loopring (LRC) and polygon (MATIC) led the way, rallying by 33.95% and 22.74%, respectively, with chainlink (LINK) up 12.99%.

However, UNUS SED LEO (LEO) and Chain (XCN) bucked the broader market trend, falling by 8.53% and 2.30%, respectively.

24-Hour Crypto Liquidations Spike on US Jobs Report

Over 24 hours, total liquidations jumped in response to the US jobs report that hit ETH short positions. At the time of writing, 24-hour liquidations stood at $254.03 million, up from $87.96 million on Friday morning.

Liquidated traders over the last 24 hours also increased. At the time of writing, liquidated traders stood at 90,998 versus 66,960 on Friday morning. Liquidations were down over one and four hours while up over 12 hours.

Crypto liquidations spike.
Total Crypto Liquidations 051122

According to Coinglass, 12-hour liquidations rose from $42.88 million to $185.40 million. However, four-hour liquidations fell from $16.75 million to $13.58 million, with one-hour liquidations down from $6.86 million to $1.92 million.

The chart below shows market conditions throughout the session.

Crypto market steadies late in the session.
Total Market Cap 051122 Hourly Chart

5 Things to Know in Crypto Today – NASDAQ Composite Delivers $1 Trillion

Key Insights:

  • XRP and the broader crypto market are in rally mode, with the crypto market cap returning to $1 trillion for the second time since September 13.
  • The US jobs report delivered the perfect combination of numbers for the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market.
  • Mainstream players continue the expansion into the crypto space, with MoneyGram and Fidelity in the news.

US Jobs Report Drives Demand for Riskier Assets and a Dollar Slide

On Friday, the all-important US jobs report delivered perfect numbers for the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market.

In October, average earnings rose by 4.7% year-over-year versus 5.0% in September, with the unemployment rate up from 3.5% to 3.7%. The unemployment rate rise came despite the participation rate falling from 62.3% to 62.2% and a 261k increase in nonfarm payrolls.

Notably, the wage growth figures showed early signs of easing price pressure that could allow the Fed to take its foot off the gas.

In response, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended the day up 1.28%, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.36%.

Beyond the US equity markets, the crypto market is up $53.5 billion to $1,010 billion, with 85 minutes (UTC) of the session remaining. The return to $1 trillion is only the second since the US CPI report on September 13.

Crypto market cap returns to $1 trillion.
Total Market Cap 041122 Daily Chart

The probability of a 75-basis point Fed rate hike in December also tumbled alongside the Dollar Spot Index (DXY), which slid by 1.82%.

According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75-basis point rate hike stands at 38.5%, down from 43.4% one week earlier.

Fed Pivot Bets Rise
FedWatch Tool 041122

Polygon (MATIC) Continues the Charge on News of Instagram NFTs

Today, polygon (MATIC) is up 24.15% to $1.1805 as bullish sentiment allowed investors to respond further to Wednesday’s Instagram news.

On Wednesday, Meta (META) updated a May 2022 announcement, stating,

“Creators will soon be able to make their own digital collectibles on Instagram and sell them to fans, both on and off Instagram.”

The announcement went on to say,

“They’ll have an end-to-end toolkit – from creation (starting on the Polygon blockchain) and showcasing, to selling.”

MATIC hit a day high of $1.1979, its highest level since $1.2455 on April 29.

MATIC on the Instagram journey.
MATICUSD 041122 Daily Chart

XRP Revisits $0.50 on Investor Sentiment Toward the SEC v Ripple Case

Today, XRP is up 9.58% to $0.4985. Notably, XRP revisited $0.50 for the first time since October 14.

While the US jobs report drove demand for riskier assets, XRP and solana (SOL) lead the top ten responses.

Investor optimism toward the SEC v Ripple case supported the return to $0.50. Court rulings in favor of Ripple Labs and executives have provided an XRP price cushion, reflecting investor sentiment toward the SEC v Ripple case. XRP last visited sub-$0.40 on September 21.

XRP has enjoyed an upward, albeit choppy, trend since the early Motions for Summary Judgment filings on September 17.

XRP on the move.
XRPUSD 041122 Daily Chart

Robinhood (HOOD) Faces a New Rival in the Crypto Space

This week, Fidelity Digital Assets reportedly announced zero commission crypto trading on the Fidelity Investments App. Fidelity will also launch a crypto educational program to draw in new crypto investors as signs emerge of a possible end to the crypto winter.

Fidelity’s plans will be a headache for Robinhood (HOOD), which released its Q3 2022 results on Tuesday. According to the press release, cryptocurrency transaction-based revenues fell 12%, while revenues increased for options (10%) and equities (7%).

Payment Platform MoneyGram Enters the Crypto Trading Space

This week, MoneyGram (MGI) announced the introduction of a new crypto service. According to the statement,

“Consumers in the US can now trade and store bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), and litecoin (LTC) by using the Company’s leading mobile app.”

The news created renewed investor interest in LTC, which has struggled over the crypto winter. Up 8.97% today, LTC is up 22% for the week.

Chart Description automatically generated

 

GBP/USD and Sub-$1.10 in the Hands of Huw Pill and the US Jobs Report

It is a quiet day for the GBP/USD. According to the economic calendar, UK construction PMI numbers for October are due. However, following Thursday’s Bank of England monetary policy decision, the numbers are unlikely to impact the GBP/USD.

While the Bank of England delivered an anticipated 75-basis point rate hike on Thursday, fears of a lengthy recession left the Pound at sub-$1.12. Economic indicators need to suggest otherwise for the Pound to begin a sustainable recovery.

While the stats are on the lighter side, the Bank of England will remain in the spotlight. BoE Chief Huw Pill speaks later in the day. The markets will look for policy views and further comments on the economic outlook and inflation.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.06% to $1.11636. A mixed start to the day saw the GBP/USD fall to an early low of $1.11490 before rising to a high of $1.11668.

GBP/USD finds early support.
GBPUSD 041122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The Pound needs to move through the $1.1244 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1336. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill would need to provide optimism toward the economic outlook to support a GBP/USD return to $1.13.

In the case of a BoE-fueled extended rally, the GBP/USD would likely test resistance at $1.14 and the Thursday high of $1.1422 but fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1514. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.1785.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.1065 in play. However, barring another sell-off, the Pound would likely avoid sub-$1.10 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0973. US economic indicators will influence later today.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.0702.

GBP/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
GBPUSD 041122 1 Hour Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The GBP/USD sits below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1.13674. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would bring S1 ($1.1065) into play. However, a GBP/USD move through R1 ($1.1336) would give the bulls a run at the 200-day (1.13674) and the 100-day ($1.13715) EMAs.

EMAs bearish.
GBPUSD 041122 4-Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busy day ahead on the US economic calendar.

The US jobs report will be in the spotlight. Following hawkish Fed Chair Powell chatter from Wednesday, a strong jobs report would fuel bets of another 75-basis point rate hike in December.

With the FOMC blackout period ending, FOMC member chatter also needs monitoring.

Going into the Friday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of a December rate hike at 50.4%. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 34.1%.

 

EUR/USD Faces Sub-$0.97 as Market Focus Shifts to the US Jobs Report

It is a busy day for the EUR/USD on the economic calendar. Germany factory orders will draw interest ahead of the service sector and composite PMIs for member states and the Eurozone.

We expect the factory order numbers and the Eurozone’s PMI figures to impact the EUR/USD

Stats from Thursday provided few surprises, with the Eurozone unemployment rate sitting at 6.6%, which was in line with forecasts. However, another round of weak stats could sound alarm bells.

While the economic data will influence, central bank chatter will also need consideration.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB members Luis de Guindos and Andrea Enria speak today. Expect any views on the economic and inflation outlook and the impact on monetary policy to influence.

On Thursday, ECB President Lagarde said inflation was too high and that the ECB would do what is needed to return inflation to target.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was up 0.04% to $0.97495. A range-bound start to the day saw the EUR/USD rise to an early high of $0.97552 before falling to a low of $0.97424.

EUR/USD finds early support.
EURUSD 041122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD needs to move through the $0.9772 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.9814 and the Thursday high of $0.98396. Hawkish ECB member chatter and upbeat German factory orders should support a return to $0.98.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.9881 and $0.99. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.9991.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.9704 in play. In the case of an extended sell-off, the EUR/USD pair would likely test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.9662 and support at $0.9650.

The third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.9553.

EUR/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
EURUSD 041122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The EUR/USD sits below the 100-day EMA ($0.98719). The 50-day EMA crossed through the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A EUR/USD move through R1 ($0.9814) would bring the EMAs and R2 ($0.9881) into play. However, failure to break through R1 ($0.9814) and the 100-day EMA ($0.98632) would leave S1 ($0.9704) in view.

EMAs bearish.
EURUSD 041122 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busy day ahead on the US economic calendar.

The US jobs report will be in the spotlight. Following hawkish Fed Chair Powell chatter from Wednesday, a strong jobs report would fuel bets of another 75-basis point rate hike in December.

With the FOMC blackout period ending, FOMC member chatter also needs monitoring.

Going into the Friday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of a December rate hike at 50.4%. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 34.1%.

 

GBP/USD Faces the Risk of Sub-$1.13 as the BoE Takes the Stage

It is a big day for the GBP/USD. According to the economic calendar, finalized UK manufacturing PMI numbers for October are due. However, unless there is a sizeable revision from prelim figures, the PMI is unlikely to impact the Pound.

The Bank of England is in the spotlight, which delivers its monetary policy decision today. The markets expect the BoE to hike interest rates by 75 basis points to 3%. However, economic conditions and the UK government’s plans to balance the books have raised the bets for a dovish move that could weigh on the Pound.

A dovish rate hike would continue tilting the scales in favor of the Greenback.

While the monetary policy decision and minutes will influence the Pound, BoE Governor Bailey will have the final say. The Bank of England’s economic outlook and monetary policy plans will also impact the Pound.

Monetary Policy Committee member Catherin Mann will also speak later in the day.

GBP/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.18% to $1.14095. A mixed morning saw the GBP/USD fall to an early low of $1.13747 before rising to a high of $1.14220.

GBP/USD finds early support.
GBPUSD 031122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The Pound needs to move through the $1.1447 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.1508 and the Wednesday high of $1.1565. A hawkish BoE rate hike would support a return to $1.15.

In the case of a BoE-fueled extended rally, the GBP/USD would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1626. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.1805.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.1329 in play. However, barring another sell-off, the Pound would likely avoid sub-$1.1250. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.1268 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.1089.

GBP/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
GBPUSD 031122 1 Hour Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The GBP/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.14558. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would bring sub-$1.13 support levels into play. However, a breakout from the 50-day EMA ($1.14558) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($1.1508).

EMAs bearish.
GBPUSD 031122 4-Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busy day ahead on the US economic calendar.

Factory orders, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number are due. Unless there is a sharp increase in jobless claims, the ISM numbers will draw the most interest.

While the headline figure will be the key, we expect the markets to consider employment, new orders, and price sub-components. A rise in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment and Price Index would tip the scales in favor of a 75-basis point December rate hike.

No FOMC members will speak to guide the markets following today’s stats, leaving Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to resonate. The FOMC blackout period started on October 22 and ends today.

Going into the Thursday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of a December rate hike at 38.5%. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 34.1%.

BTC Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-30 Despite a NASDAQ Composite Slump

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.63% to end the day at $20,165.
  • Fed Chair Powell sent the NASDAQ Composite Index, BTC, and the broader crypto market into the red.
  • However, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100 despite hawkish Powell chatter.

On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.63%. Following a 0.04% loss on Tuesday, BTC ended the day at $20,165. Notably, BTC wrapped up the day at $20,000 for the ninth consecutive session while avoiding sub-$20,000 for the eighth day in a row.

After a range-bound morning, BTC responded to the FOMC Statement, rising to a high of $20,817. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,686 before sliding to a late low of $20,078. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,327 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $20,154.

Hawkish Fed Chair Powell chatter sent BTC into the deep red. A partial recovery saw BTC move back through S2 to end the day at $20,165.

US economic indicators tested buyer appetite ahead of the all-important FOMC policy decision and press conference.

The Fed lifted rates by 75 basis points, which was in line with expectations. Bets of a December Fed pivot also appeared justified, with the FOMC Statement suggesting a possible policy shift.

However, Fed Chair Powell poured iced water over hopes of a pivot, talking of inflation being too high and the need to press ahead. Powell also noted that the ‘ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.’

In response, the NASDAQ Composite Index slid by 3.36%, dragging BTC into the red.

Today, US factory orders, jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will draw interest. We expect the PMI and sub-components to have the most impact.

BTC’s sensitivity to US economic indicators and the FED leaves the correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index in place near term. This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 21 points.

NASDAQ correlation.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 031122 Daily Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady Despite Powell’s Talk of More Hikes

This morning, the Fear & Greed Index held steady at 30/100 for a second session. The Index avoided sub-30 despite the NASDAQ Composite Index sliding for a third session. While falling short of $21,000, BTC continued to avoid sub-$20,000, suggesting a bottoming out.

However, following the Fed’s policy decision and forward guidance, US economic indicators will provide direction near term. Fed Chair Powell removed hopes of a Fed pivot, leaving riskier assets at the mercy of the US economic calendar.

The Index will need to target 40/100 and the neutral zone to support a BTC bearish trend reversal. A fall to sub-20/100 would signal a BTC slide to sub-$18,000.

Fear & Greed Index holds steady.
Fear & Greed 031122

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.08% to $20,182. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $20,139 before rising to a high of $20,189.

BTC under pressure.
BTCUSD 031122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $20,353 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,629 and the Wednesday high of $20,817. A BTC return to $20,500 would signal a possible breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $21,092 and $21,500 would likely come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $21,831. BTC movement will hinge on US economic indicators.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,900 in play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$19,500. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,614 should limit the downside. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI could send BTC into another slide.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $18,875.

BTC support levels in play below the pivot.
BTCUSD 031122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 100-day EMA, currently at $20,101. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA to deliver mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($20,359) would give the bulls a run at R1 ($20,629) and $21,000. However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($20,101) would bring the 200-day EMA ($19,918) and S1 ($19,900) into view.

EMAs bullish.
BTCUSD 031122 4 Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Faces an Uphill Battle to Parity as Economic Conditions Sour

It is a quieter day for the EUR/USD on the economic calendar. Economic indicators for the Eurozone will be in the spotlight, with the September unemployment rate in focus. However, barring a jump from 6.6%, the number should have a muted impact on the EUR.

Economic data from Wednesday revealed worsening manufacturing sector conditions. In October, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.4 to a 29-month low of 46.4. Despite sliding new orders and rising operating costs, firms continued to hire, suggesting an unlikely surge in unemployment.

However, labor market conditions could change drastically based on the surveys, which could give the ECB another thing to consider.

With today’s stats unlikely to influence, chatter from the ECB will draw interest following Tuesday’s PMIs.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and ECB members Fabio Panetta and Mr. Elderson speak today. Expect any views on the economic and inflation outlook and the impact on monetary policy to influence. Until now, the ECB has remained coy about its plans for December.

EUR/USD Price Action

At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $0.98149. A mixed start to the day saw the EUR/USD fall to an early low of $0.98138 before rising to a high of $0.98315.

EUR/USD under early pressure.
EURUSD 031122 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The EUR/USD needs to move through the $0.9868 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.9923 and the Wednesday high of $0.99759. With the economic calendar on the lighter side, ECB chatter has to be hawkish to support a breakout session.

In the case of an extended rally, the bulls will likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0031. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.0194.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.9760 in play. In the case of an extended sell-off, the EUR/USD pair would likely test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.9704 and support at $0.97.

The third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.9541.

EUR/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
EURUSD 031122 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send a bearish signal. The EUR/USD sits below the 100-day EMA ($0.98757). The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A EUR/USD move through the 100-day ($0.98757) and the 200-day ($0.98785) EMAs would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($0.98988) and R1 ($0.9923). However, failure to move through the 100-day ($0.98757) would leave S1 ($0.9760) in view.

EMAs bearish.
EURUSD 031122 4 Hourly Chart

The US Session

It is a busy day ahead on the US economic calendar.

Factory orders, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number are due. Unless there is a sharp increase in jobless claims, the ISM numbers will draw the most interest.

While the headline figure will be the key, we also expect the markets to consider employment, new orders, and price sub-components. A rise in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment and Price Index would tip the scales in favor of a 75-basis point December rate hike.

No FOMC members will speak to guide the markets following today’s stats, leaving Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to resonate. The FOMC blackout period started on October 22 and ends today.

Going into the Thursday session, the FedWatch Tool had the probability of a December rate hike at 43.2%. One week ago, the likelihood of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 35.6%.