Canadian Dollar Flexes Muscles

The GBPJPY is in a triple top formation and a divergence on MACD and RSI. There’s a very promising short but before that happens sellers need to break the neckline of this pattern.

The AUDCAD broke the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation and later tested it as a closest support.

The EURCAD bounced off a crucial horizontal resistance with two shooting stars. That’s usually very pessimistic.

The Canadian Dollar Index is in a false breakout from the head and shoulders formation. That is promising for the CAD.

The USDCAD bounced off long-term down trendlines and broke the lower line of the rectangle.

The USDJPY is possibly in a very dangerous bearish reversal.

The AUDUSD denied the long-term sell signal and is aiming lower.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S Jobless Claims and Retail Sales Put the Greenback in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quieter start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning.

For the Aussie Dollar

Employment figures were in focus this morning.

According to the ABS,

  • The unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.6% in March, while the participation rate rose from 66.1% to 66.3%.
  • In March, employment increased by 70,700 following an 88,700 rise in February. Economists had forecast a more modest 35,000 increase.
  • Full employment declined by 20,800, however, partially reversing an 89,100 rise from February.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.77377 to $0.77253 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.09% to $0.7721.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥108.88 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.10% to $0.7148.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized April inflation figures for Germany, France, and Italy are due out later today.

Barring a marked upward revision from prelim figures, however, we don’t expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, news updates on COVID-19 and vaccination rates will continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1975.

For the Pound

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the latest easing of lockdown measures in focus along with next steps.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.3775.

Across the Pond

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers are in focus.

Industrial production, business inventories, and NY Empire State manufacturing numbers are also due out. We don’t expect these stats to have an impact on the broader market, however.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 91.671.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Manufacturing sales figures for February are due out later today.

Barring particularly dire numbers, however, we don’t expect too much influence from the stats.

Expect market risk sentiment and economic data from the U.S to have a greater impact market risk sentiment and the Loonie.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.2520 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Another Test Of Support At 1.2525

USD/CAD Video 14.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle below the support at 1.2525 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the 50 EMA at 91.80 and is moving towards the support at 91.50. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to get to the test of this level, USD/CAD will find itself under more pressure.

Today, foreign exchange market traders followed the developments in commodity markets which moved higher and provided support to commodity-related currencies like Canadian dollar.

WTI oil gained strong upside momentum after Iran stated that it would enrich uranium up to 60% purity because of the recent attack on its nuclear facility. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the $63 level. If this attempt is successful, Canadian dollar may get more support.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields moved higher, providing some support to the U.S. dollar. However, this support was not sufficient enough to offset the impact of strong commodity markets so USD/CAD moved lower.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 14 2021

USD to CAD managed to get below the support at 1.2550 and is trying to settle below the next support level which is located at 1.2525. This support level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

In case USD to CAD declines below the support at 1.2525, it will gain downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 1.2500. RSI is in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If USD to CAD settles below the support at 1.2500, it will move towards the next support at 1.2470. A successful test of the support at 1.2470 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2450.

On the upside, the previous support at 1.2550 will likely serve as the first resistance level for USD to CAD. A move above this level will lead to a test of the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2560. If USD to CAD gets above the 20 EMA, it will move towards the next resistance which is located near the 50 EMA at 1.2590.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Australian Dollar On The Rise

Gold traders are fighting to keep the bullish dream alive and they’re trying to create the right shoulder of the Inverse head and shoulders pattern. A breakout of the neckline can possibly bring serious bullish sentiment.

Silver bounced from a crucial support on the 24.8 USD/oz.

Brent oil broke the mid-term down trendline and is aiming higher.

The Dow Jones is in the third wedge pattern in a row. The previous two ended in an upswing.

The EURUSD climbed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci.

The GBPUSD wasted a great chance for an upswing and failed to break the neckline of the inversed head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD on the other hand, is very close to activating the buy signal from its own inversed head and shoulders formation.

The USDCAD is locked in a tight rectangle below major down trendlines.

The GBPAUD is in a sweet long-term sell signal, after the price created a head and shoulders pattern at the end of the wedge. A breakout of the lower line of the wedge opens a way towards new mid-term lows.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and Central Bank Commentary Keep the EUR and Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in focus this morning, with the RBNZ also in action.

For the Japanese Yen

Core machinery orders were in focus this morning.

In February, core machinery orders slid by 8.5% month-on-month, following a 4.5% decline in January. Year-on-year, orders were down by 7.1%. In January, core machinery orders had been up by 1.5%.

Economists had forecast core machinery orders to increase by 2.8% in the month and to rise by 2.3% year-on-year.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.927 to ¥108.861 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.18% to ¥108.86 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Kiwi Dollar

While there were no material stats to consider, the RBNZ delivered its April monetary policy decision this morning.

In line with market expectations, the RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%.

Salient points from the RBNZ Rate Statement included:

  • The global growth outlook has improved, though the recover in growth is uneven across countries.
  • COVID-19 mutations continue to provide uncertainty over the economic outlook.
  • Economic activity in NZ slowed over the summer before a rebound in domestic activity.
  • December quarter GDP was weaker than expected and more recent indicators suggest that momentum has reduced.
  • Members noted that supply chain disruptions could constrain economic domestic economic activity near-term.
  • Business credit growth and investment also remains subdued.
  • New government housing policies will likely dampen house price growth. It may take time, however, to see any implications on price inflation and employment.
  • Near-term price increases are likely and these will see headline inflation exceed 2% for a period. Price increases are likely to be temporary, however.
  • Employment is below its maximum sustainable level and expect employment to increase gradually.
  • Overall risks to the economic outlook remain balanced, supported by ongoing stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies.
  • The Committee agreed to maintain its current stimulatory monetary settings until it is confident that consumer price inflation will be sustained at the 2% per annum target midpoint, and that employment is at or above its maximum sustainable level.
  • A prolonged period of time is expected to pass before these conditions are met.
  • The Committee agreed that it was prepared to lower the Official Cash Rate if required.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70580 to $0.70556 in response to the rate statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.14% to $0.7063.

For the Aussie Dollar

Consumer confidence was in focus following business confidence figures on Tuesday.

In April, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose by 6.2% to 118.8, its highest level since Aug-2010. In March, the index had risen by 2.6% to 111.8.

According to the latest Westpac Report,

  • Family finances vs a year ago jumped by 13.4% to 103.5, with family finances next 12-months up by 5.4% to 117.6.
  • Economic conditions next 12-months increased by 10.3% to 125.5, with conditions next 5-years up by 4.1% to 123.8.
  • Significantly, the economic conditions next 12-months was up 133.8% year-on-year.
  • The Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 5.6% to 118.4, however, with time to buy a dwelling falling by 7.9%.
  • Time to buy a major household item slipped by 0.2% in the month, while up 61.9% year-on-year.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76455 to $0.76445 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.08% to $0.7647.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Industrial production figures for the Eurozone are due out along with finalized inflation figures for Spain.

Expect February industrial production figures to have a greater influence on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde could also move the dial in a scheduled speech later in the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.1959.

For the Pound

It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar.

4th quarter labor productivity figures are due out later today. With the UK government easing COVID-19 restrictions, however, we don’t expect the numbers to have an impact.

Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news to influence, however.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.07 to $1.3759.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Import and export price index figures are due out later today. We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers.

Any FOMC member commentary and chatter from Capitol Hill will need monitoring, however.

FED Chair Powell is due to speak and will garner plenty of interest late in the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 91.789.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers and market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.2542 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.2625 Remains Strong

USD/CAD Video 13.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle back below the support at 1.2550 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle below the support at the 92 level. In case this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the 50 EMA at 91.80 which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, U.S. reported that Inflation Rate increased by 2.6% year-over-year compared to analyst consensus which called for growth of 2.5%. Core Inflation Rate grew by 1.6% compared to analyst consensus of 1.5%.

The reports indicated that inflation was rising a bit faster than expected but failed to provide additional support to the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market. Treasury yields have moved lower after the release of U.S. inflation reports, which served as a bearish catalyst for USD/CAD.

In addition, commodity markets moved higher today which was a bullish development for commodity-related currencies including Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 13 2021

USD to CAD has recently made another attempt to settle above the resistance at 1.2625 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back towards the support at 1.2550. Currently, USD to CAD is trying to settle below this support level.

In case this attempt is successful, USD to CAD will head towards the support at 1.2525. A move below this level will push USD to CAD towards April lows at 1.2500. If USD to CAD declines below 1.2500, it will move towards the support at 1.2470.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for USD to CAD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.2560. A move above the 20 EMA will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2590. The next resistance level is located at the 50 EMA near 1.2600. In case USD to CAD manages to get back above the 50 EMA, it will move towards the resistance at 1.2625.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Extends the Drop

Gold extends the bearish correction giving chance to bulls, who missed the initial buying opportunity from the beginning of the month.

Silver bounces from a crucial mid-term horizontal support.

Brent Oil breaks the upper line of the triangle but the breakout itself is not very convincing.

Indices are ready to make another all-time highs.

The GBPUSD testing the neckline of the mid-term inverse head and shoulders pattern.

The AUDUSD with a flag just below the neckline of the H&S pattern.

The NZDUSD with a very similar situation.

The USDCAD consolidates below crucial long-term down trendlines.

The GBPAUD breaks two major short-term resistances but the main sentiment still looks rather negative.

The EURRUB stays bullish despite two dangerously looking shooting stars on an important horizontal resistance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

A Busier Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, the GBP, and the Greenback in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar were in action this morning, with economic data from China also in focus.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Business confidence and electronic card retail sales were in focus in the early hours.

In the 1st quarter, a net 11% of businesses expect a worsening in general economic conditions in the coming months.

According to the NZIER, this was a modest improvement from 16% of businesses that were pessimistic in the previous quarter.

Electronic card retail sales rose by 0.9% in March, partially reversing a 2.5% decline from February. The upside came in spite of spending constraints in the 1st week of March.

According to NZ Stats,

  • Card spending increased in four of the six retail industries.
  • Sales of durables increased by 1.8%, while spending on consumables slid by 3.3%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.70293 to $0.70324 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.20% to $0.7016.

For the Aussie Dollar

In March, the NAB Business Confidence Index fell from 18 to 15. In February, the index had risen from 13 to 18.

According to the March survey,

  • In spite of the fall in confidence, confidence remained at a high level suggesting that firms are optimistic that the strength in activity will continue.
  • While confidence declined, business conditions rose by 8 points to a record high +25 in March.
  • Strong increases in all the sub-components, which are all now also at record highs drove the conditions index higher.

Looking at the sub-components:

  • The employment sub-index climbed from +9 to +16, with the capacity utilization rate rising from 81.8% to 82.3%.
  • Profitability also improved, with the sub-index rising from +18 to +26.
  • A pickup in inflationary pressures was also evident. The labor costs sub-index rose by 1.9% following a 1.1% increase in February. Purchases costs increased by 1.8%, following a more modest 0.7% rise in February.
  • Forward orders were also on the rise, with the sub-index climbing from +10 to +17.
  • The trading sub-index saw the largest increase, however, jumping from +23 to +35 in March.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76095 to $0.76109 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.7608.

From China

Trade data was in focus this morning.

In March, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from $103.25bn to $116.35bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to $52.05bn.

Exports surged by 49.0% year-on-year, following a 60.60% jump in March, with imports rising by 38.1%. In February, imports had risen by 22.2%.

Economists had forecast for exports to increase by 35.5% and for imports to rise by 23.3%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76105 to $0.76116 upon release of the figures.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.22% to ¥109.62 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out later today.

Expect both sets of numbers to provide the EUR with direction. EUR sensitivity to the numbers has picked up recently, so we expect the numbers to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and progress on the vaccination front will also continue to influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.11% to $1.1898.

For the Pound

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar.

3-month rolling GDP, manufacturing and industrial production and trade data are due out later today.

While we will expect the GDP and manufacturing production figures to have the greatest interest, trade data will draw more interest.

The markets will be looking to assess the ongoing effects of Brexit on UK trade terms.

At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3741.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. March inflation figures will be in focus later today.

With market sensitivity to inflation continuing to linger in spite of the FED’s assurances, expect plenty of influence from the numbers.

Away from the economic calendar chatter from Capitol Hill and FOMC member commentary will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.08% to 92.211.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats from Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.10% to C$1.2575 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Retreats At The Start Of The Week

USD/CAD Video 12.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle back above the resistance at 1.2550 while the U.S. dollar is losing some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get below the support at 92.15 but failed to settle below the next support level at 92. If the U.S. Dollar Index gets back above 92.15, it will head towards the 20 EMA at 92.30 which will be bullish for USD/CAD.

Today, the Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey which indicated that Business Outlook Survey Indicator increased from 1.3 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.9 in the first quarter of 2021.

The report did not provide additional support to the Canadian dollar on the foreign exchange market, and Canadian currency found itself under some pressure against U.S. dollar at the beginning of the week.

While WTI oil made an attempt to settle above the psychologically important $60 level after an attack on Iran’s nuclear plant which caused an electricity outage, other commodities were under pressure which was bearish for commodity-related currencies. Meanwhile, the situation with coronavirus in India is getting worse which may serve as an additional bearish catalyst for commodity-related currencies like Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 12 2021

USD to CAD failed to settle below the support at 1.2525 and is trying to settle above the nearest resistance at 1.2550. The next resistance level is located at the 20 EMA at 1.2565.

If USD to CAD gets above the resistance at the 20 EMA, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.2590. A successful test of this resistance level will push USD to CAD towards the 50 EMA which is located at 1.2600.

On the support side, the nearest support level for USD to CAD is still located at 1.2525. If USD to CAD declines below this level, it will move towards the next support at 1.2500. A successful test of the support at 1.2500 will push USD to CAD towards the support at 1.2470.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Eurozone Retail Sales and the BoC Business Survey Put the EUR and Loonie in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats for the markets to consider in the early hours.

The Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.72 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.11% to $0.7025. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.7607.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. February retail sales for the Eurozone are due out later today.

With the ECB looking for consumer spending to support the economic recovery, we can expect some sensitivity to the numbers. Fresh lockdown measures reintroduced across a number of member states in recent weeks, however, could limit the impact of any positive numbers.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and progress on the vaccination front will also influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.07% to $1.1891.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of COVID-19 and vaccine news updates.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.3701.

Across the Pond

It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of news from Capitol Hill and FOMC member commentary.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.06% to 92.216.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey is due out later today.

With little else for the markets to consider, we can expect plenty of influence from the survey.

Away from the economic calendar, crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand will also influence.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.13% to C$1.2546 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Dollar May be at an Inflection Point

The dollar’s inability to gain after the much stronger than expected March employment data may have encouraged a bout of profit-taking. Next week offers a test on the hypothesis that the dollar-bullish divergence meme has been fully discounted. After a brief hiatus, US coupon sales will return ($110 bln), and a string of high-frequency data is likely to confirm an acceleration of prices and activity.

On balance, we expect the US dollar and long-term interest rates to rise next week. US rates fell, with the 10-year yield falling to two-week lows near 1.60%. This means that there is no concession to next week’s supply that begins with a $58 bln sale of three-year notes on Monday. The US will be raising $110 bln in coupon sales, while the data will likely show a jump in prices (base effect and more).

There will also be a surge in real sector data, partly reflecting the recovery from February’s weather-induced weakness and the new stimulus. Meanwhile, new restrictions in Japan and Europe mean that divergence with the US may extend deep into Q2. In fact, if the dollar does not trade higher next week, the bears, who seemed to go into hibernation in Q1, will re-emerge on ideas that investors are moving beyond its focus on the stimulus-driven US recovery and yawning divergence.

Dollar Index

Last week’s pullback met the (38.2%) retracement target of the leg up since the late February low (~89.70) found near 92.00. A convincing break could signal a return to the 91.00-91.30 band. A move now above the 92.50 area would lift the tone, with an initial target in the 92.85-93.00 band, and, perhaps, to the five-month high set at the end of last month closer to 93.50. The MACD and Slow Stochastic point lower, while the RSI is turning higher. The 200-day moving average, which the Dollar Index begins the new week a bit above, is found around9 2.35. The recent decline has seen the five-day average slip below the 20-day moving average for the first time in a little more than a month.

Euro

The outside up day on April 5, which seemed to complete a small head and shoulders pattern with the close above $1.18. It set the technical tone for the rest of the week, and the euro met the minimum objective of a bit more than $1.19. However, disappointing European industrial production figures and a jump in US rates (before the US PPI jump that was twice the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey) stalled the euro’s recovery.

A little shelf has emerged near $1.1860. A bit lower is the (38.2%) retracement of the bounce since the end of March and the 20-day moving average (~$1.1840). A break of the $1.1790-$1.1800 area would signal a retest on $1.17. Some think a new range may be emerging, roughly $1.17-$1.20.

Japanese Yen

The 15 bp decline in the US 10-year yields from its March 30 peak above 1.77% seemed to drag the dollar lower against the yen. Speculators in the futures market had jumped with both feet into short yen positions. The gross short yen position by non-commercials jumped from 13.3k contracts, a multi-year low, in the first half of January to 84.7k contracts as of April 6. Last week was only the third (weekly) decline in the dollar since the end of January.

The dollar peaked in the last session of Q1, just shy of JPY111.00. It hit JPY109 on April 8 before jumping back to almost JPY110 ahead of the weekend as higher US (and China) inflation lifted yields. The JPY110.20 area is the next retracement (61.8%) of the dollar’s pullback. It takes more than a pre-weekend dollar bounce to turn the momentum indicators. A break of last week’s low could spur a move toward the JPY108.30-JPY108.40 area.

British Pound

Sterling fell for the fifth week of the past seven. It flirted with the lows from late March, near $1.3670 ahead of the weekend, before recovering back to almost $1.3750. The MACD remains in its trough, while the Slow Stochastic is turning lower from the mid-range. The five-day moving average has held below the 20-day since early March. Cable also appeared influenced by the dramatic recovery of the euro against sterling. The euro fell to its lows level since March 2020 against sterling at the start of last week (~GBP0.8470).

It recovered smartly to almost GBP0.8700 before the weekend, which corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the leg lower that began on January 6 near GBP0.9085, where it met strong selling pressure. It was the biggest euro advance against sterling in about seven months. While we cast a jaundiced eye over many seasonality claims in the foreign exchange market, we note April tends to be a good month for sterling. In the past 20 years, sterling has risen in 17 Aprils. However, May is cruel and sterling has fallen in 16 of the past 20 years in May.

Canadian Dollar

The US snapped a three-week advance against the Canadian dollar that lifted it from a three-year low (~CAD1.2365) to around CAD1.2650 at the end of March. That late March high was retested last week. A robust Canadian jobs report blew away expectations and gave the Loonie a bid. The greenback settled on its lows, and a break of CAD1.25 will open up the downside.

The MACD is trying to turn lower, while the Slow Stochastic already has rolled over. The Bank of Canada meets on April 21. Even though Ontario has reintroduced social restrictions, and the excess fatalities in Canada may rival the US on a per capita basis, the central bank will likely be increasingly confident of a strong economic rebound.

Australian Dollar

The Aussie peaked in late February at a little over $0.8000. It fell to around $0.7600 and has spent most of the past three weeks confined to around a half of a cent range around it. While there appears to be little momentum, the MACD is trying to turn up from overextended territory, and the Slow Stochastic is already trending higher.

Upticks last week were capped by the 20-day moving average, which begins the new week near $0.7660. Australia lost around 350k full-time positions from March through June last year. In the eight months since, it has recouped them all, plus. On the other hand, the unemployment rate was at 5.8% in February, up from 5.1% at the end of 2019. The March figures are the highlight of next week’s data.

Mexican Peso

The dollar eased by around 0.7% against the peso last week. It was the second consecutive weekly decline and the fourth in the past five weeks. This largely mirrors the performance of the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index. Mexico reported a jump in inflation (CPI 4.67%, up from 3.76% in February, and the bi-weekly readings warn it may not have peaked. Mexico also reported a 0.4% rise in industrial output (economists had projected a decline).

A recovery in auto production and sales seems to be critical and linked to the strengthening US economy. The greenback peaked in early March near MXN21.6350 and last week recorded a low around MXN20.0650, its lowest level in almost two months. The move is stretched. The MACD is at its lows for the year, while the Slow Stochastic is poised to turn higher from oversold terrain. The MXN20.40-MXN20.50 area offers the first hurdle for a dollar bounce.

Chinese Yuan

The yuan rose for the first time against the dollar in seven weeks. It has completely unwound its earlier gains and is now off about 0.4% for the year. More trackers of flows into different funds are seeing outflows from Chinese bonds. The yuan’s weakness seems to be fundamentally driven, and the PBOC is not leaning hard against it. Last week, the dollar traded inside the previous week’s range (~CNY6.54-CNY6.58).

The offshore yuan is a little softer than the onshore yuan, which is understood as offering insight into the direction of the underlying pressures. Beijing is expected to report lending figures, trade, investment, retail sales, and industrial production figures for March, culminating in the first look at Q1 GDP. The economy has lost some of its mojo, and the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey projects that growth nearly halved from the Q4 20 pace (2.6%) to around 1.4%.

This article was written by Marc Chandler, MarctoMarket.

The Week Ahead – Economic Data, COVID-19, and Corporate Earnings in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 63 stats in focus in the week ending 16th April. In the week prior, 36 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

After a quiet Monday, March inflation figures will get things going on Tuesday. In spite of the FED’s assurances of unwavering support, a pickup in inflationary pressure will be a test for the markets.

The focus will then shift to a particularly busy day on the economic calendar.

Key stats include March retail sales, jobless claims, and Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers.

Business inventory and industrial production figures are also due out but will likely have limited impact.

At the end of the week, prelim consumer sentiment figures for April will also draw attention on Friday.

In the week ending 9th April, the Dollar Spot Index slid by 0.92% to 92.163.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Early in the week, Eurozone retail sales and economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will be in focus.

Expect Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment figures to have the greatest impact.

Mid-week, industrial production figures for the Eurozone.

Wrapping up the week, March inflation and trade data for the Eurozone will draw attention.

Other stats in the week include inflation figures for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. We don’t expect the numbers to have an impact on the EUR, however.

The EUR ended the week up by 1.19% to $1.1899.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Retail sales figures are due out early Tuesday ahead of industrial and manufacturing production figures later in the day.

February trade figures will also be in focus on Tuesday. Expect more interest in the numbers, as the markets look for the effects of Brexit on trade terms.

The Pound ended the week down by 0.90% to $1.3707.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

The markets will have to wait until Thursday for manufacturing sales figures. With little else to consider, the numbers will draw attention ahead of wholesale sales numbers on Friday.

Mid-week, OPEC and the IEA’s monthly report, crude oil inventory numbers will also influence.

From the Bank of Canada, the Business Outlook Survey will provide direction at the start of the week.

Away from the economic calendar, expect economic data from China to also influence…

The Loonie ended the week up 0.38% to C$1.2530 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead.

Key stats include business and consumer confidence figures in the 1st half of the week.

In the 2nd half of the week, March employment numbers are also due out.

Expect plenty of Aussie Dollar sensitivity to the numbers. Business investment and consumer spending are both key to the economic recovery. Any weakening in consumer or business confidence will test support for the Aussie Dollar.

Improving labor market conditions will also be a must.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.17% to $0.7623.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.

Key stats include electronic card retail sales and business PMI numbers.

While we can expect the numbers to influence, the RBNZ monetary policy decision is the main event of the week.

With the markets expecting the RBNZ to stand pat, the focus will be on the RBNZ Rate Statement.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.01% to $0.7033.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quiet week ahead.

There are no material stats to provide the Yen with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Yen in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.92% to ¥109.67 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead.

Early in the week trade data for March will be in focus. Expect plenty of interest in the numbers. The markets will be looking for a sustained improvement in trade terms.

At the end of the week, 1st quarter GDP numbers and March industrial production figures will be in focus.

Other stats include retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment figures. While the numbers tend to draw attention, 1st quarter GDP numbers will overshadow these stats at the end of the week.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.22% to CNY6.5526 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics and COVID-19

U.S foreign policy will remain the main area of focus for the markets, with U.S – China relations key.

For the Eurozone, vaccination roll-outs and COVID-19 news updates will also be in focus in the week ahead.

Corporate Earnings

Earning season also kicks off in the week ahead.

Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo are big names delivering results in the week

The Weekly Wrap – A Dovish FED Pegs Back the Greenback

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar, in the week ending 9th April.

A total of 36 stats were monitored, following 60 stats from the week prior.

Of the 36 stats, 23 came in ahead forecasts, with 11 economic indicators coming up short of forecasts. There were 2 stats that were in line with forecasts in the week.

Looking at the numbers, 24 of the stats reflected an upward trend from previous figures. Of the remaining 12 stats, 11 reflected a deterioration from previous.

For the Greenback, it was a first weekly loss in 4-weeks. In the week ending 9th April, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.92% to 92.163. In the previous week, the Dollar had risen by 0.28% to 93.022.

A dovish FED left the Dollar in the red for the week.

Out of the U.S

It was a quieter week on the economic data front.

Key stats included service sector PMI, factory orders, and weekly jobless claim figures.

It was a mixed set of numbers for the Greenback.

The market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 55.3 to 63.7 in March. It was the only positive, however.

In February, factory orders fell by 0.8%, partially reversing a 2.7% rise from January.

Jobless claims figures were also disappointing, with initial jobless claims rising from 728k to 744k in the week ending 2nd April. Economists had forecast a fall to 680k.

Other stats in the week included JOLTs job openings, trade data, wholesale inflation, and Markit service PMIs.

These stats had a relatively muted impact on the Dollar and the broader markets, however.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes reaffirmed FED Chair Powell’s stance on low for longer. Late in the week, Powell also delivered a speech talking of the need for unwavering monetary policy support.

In the equity markets, the NASDAQ rallied by 3.12%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining 1.95% and 2.71% respectively.

Out of the UK

It was a quiet week on the economic data front.

Finalized service and composite PMI numbers for March were in focus.

Downward revisions from prelim figures had a relatively muted impact on the Pound, however. Service sector and the broader private sector returned to growth in March, delivering Pound support.

Government plans on easing COVID-19 containment measures thanks to progress on the vaccination front also remained Pound positive.

In the week, the Pound fell by 0.90% to end the week at $1.3707. In the week prior, the Pound had risen by 0.31% to $1.3832.

The FTSE100 ended the week up by 2.65%, reversing a 0.05% loss from the previous week.

Out of the Eurozone

It was another particularly busy week on the economic data front.

Mid-week, service sector PMIs for March were in focus after impressive manufacturing numbers from the week prior.

The stats were skewed to the positive, with only Italy reporting a decline in its services PMI.

For the Eurozone, the composite PMI increased from 48.8 to 53.2, which was up from a prelim 52.5. A return to growth across the private sector came in spite of containment measures across a number of Eurozone member states.

From Germany, factory orders, industrial production, and trade data were also in focus.

Orders rose for a 2nd consecutive month, albeit at a slower pace, driven by domestic demand.

Industrial production and trade data disappointed, however.

Industrial production fell by 1.6% in February, month-on-month, following a revised 2% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 1.5% rise.

In February, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed from €22.2bn to €19.1bn, versus a forecasted narrowing to €20.0bn.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB meeting minutes were also in focus. While highlighting downside risks to the economy near-term, optimism was evident over the medium-term outlook.

In line with Lagarde’s assurances from the press conference, the minutes revealed a plan to ramp up bond purchases in the near-term. The minutes did discussed a quarterly review, however…

For the week, the EUR rose by 1.19% to $1.1899. In the week prior, the EUR had fallen by 0.30% to $1.1759.

The DAX30 rose by 0.84%, with the CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 ended the week with gains of 1.09% and 1.16% respectively.

For the Loonie

It was a busier week.

Trade data for February and March Ivey PMI numbers were in focus mid-week.

The stats were mixed. While the Ivey PMI jumped from 60.0 to 72.9, the trade surplus narrowed from C$1.21bn to C$1.04bn.

At the end of the week, employment figures for March were more significant, however.

Employment surged by 303.1K at the end of the quarter, following an impressive 259.2k jump in February.

The unemployment rate fell from 8.2% to 7.5% as a result of the surge in hiring.

In the week ending 9th April, the Loonie rose by 0.38% to C$1.2530. In the week prior, the Loonie had fallen by 0.01% to C$1.2578.

Elsewhere

It was a relatively bullish week for the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar.

In the week ending 9th April, the Aussie Dollar rose by 0.17% to $0.7623, with the Kiwi Dollar ending the week up by 0.01% to $0.7033.

For the Aussie Dollar

It was a particularly quiet week.

There were no material stats to provide the Aussie with direction.

While there were no stats, the RBA was in action early in the week.

In line with market expectations, the RBA stood pat on policy.

The Rate Statement talked of a hold on the cash rate until wage growth is substantially higher and inflation is sustainably within the 2% to 3% target range. According to the statement, the Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.

For the Kiwi Dollar

It was also a particularly quiet week.

There were no material stats in the week to provide the Kiwi with direction.

For the Japanese Yen

It was a relatively quiet week.

At the start of the week, finalized service PMI figures were in focus. In March, the services PMI increased from 46.3 to 48.3, its highest reading since 2020.

In spite of the continued contraction, optimism hit its highest level since 2013 on vaccine hopes.

Household spending figures for February also provided some hope. Month-on-month, spending increased by 2.4%, partially reversing a 7.3% slump from January.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.92% to ¥109.67 against the U.S Dollar. In the week prior, the Yen had fallen by 0.96% to ¥110.69.

Out of China

It was a relatively quiet week on the data front.

The Caixin Services PMI for March was in focus early in the week.

Following softer growth across the manufacturing sector, service sector activity picked up in March.

The Services PMI rose from 51.5 to 54.3.

At the end of the week, inflation figures also drew attention, with the PMI surveys highlighting a marked increase in input price.

In March, consumer prices fell by 0.5%, reversing a 0.6% increase in February. In spite of the fall in March, inflationary pressure returned. The annual rate of inflation accelerated from -0.2% to 0.4%. Economists had forecast consumer prices to fall by 0.4%, month-on-month, and to rise by 0.3% year-on-year.

Wholesale inflationary pressures surged at the end of the 1st quarter. The producer price index increased by 4.40%, year-on-year, which was well above a forecasted 3.5% increase. The PPI had risen by 1.7% in February.

In the week ending 9th April, the Chinese Yuan rose by 0.22% to CNY6.5526. In the week prior, the Yuan had fallen by 0.40% to CNY6.5670.

The CSI300 slid by 2.45%, with the Hang Seng ending the week down by 0.83%.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Gains Ground After Strong Employment Reports

USD/CAD Video 09.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle below the support at 1.2550 while the U.S. dollar is moving higher against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently made an attempt to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 92.35 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and declined towards the support at 92.15. If the U.S. Dollar Index settles below this level, it will get to the test of the next support at the 92 level which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, Canada provided Employment Change report for March which indicated that the Canadian economy added 303,100 jobs compared to analyst consensus of 100,000. Unemployment Rate declined from 8.2% in February to 7.5% in March while analysts expected that it would decline to 8%. Stronger-than-expected employment reports provided material support to the Canadian dollar.

The yield of 10-year Treasuries has recently made an attempt to settle above 1.68% but lost momentum and declined closer to the 20 EMA at 1.63%. If the yield of 10-year Treasuries settles below the 20 EMA, it will continue its downisde move which will be bearish for the U.S. dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 9 2021

USD to CAD is currently testing the support at 1.2550. In case this test is successful, USD to CAD will move towards the next support level at 1.2525.

A move below the support at 1.2525 will open the way to the test of the support which is located at the lows of the previous pullback at 1.2500. If USD to CAD manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the support at 1.2470.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for USD to CAD is located at the 20 EMA at 1.2565. A successful test of this resistance level will push USD to CAD towards the next resistance at 1.2590. If USD to CAD gets above this level, it will head towards the resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.2605.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Loonie in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. Economic data from China was in focus this early morning.

Out of China

Inflation figures were in focus this morning.

In March, consumer prices fell by 0.5%, reversing a 0.6% increase in February. In spite of the fall in March, inflationary pressure returned. The annual rate of inflation accelerated from -0.2% to 0.4%. Economists had forecast consumer prices to fall by 0.4%, month-on-month, and to rise by 0.3% year-on-year.

Wholesale inflationary pressures surged at the end of the 1st quarter. The producer price index increased by 4.40%, year-on-year, which was well above a forecasted 3.5% increase. In February, the PPI had risen by 1.7%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.76504 to $0.76435 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.08% to $0.7647

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥109.30 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.06% to $0.7052.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. German industrial production and trade figures for February are due out later this morning.

Following Germany’s impressive private sector PMI numbers for February and March, the markets will be looking for the stats to be aligned.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and progress on the vaccination front will also influence.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1911.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. House price figures for March are due out later today. We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.

Government easing measures and success on the vaccination front remain key drivers for the Pound near-term.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.01% to $1.3737.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures for March are due out later today.

The markets are expecting a pickup in wholesale inflationary pressures, which would be in line with the latest PMI surveys.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill will also need monitoring later in the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 92.036.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Employment figures for March are due out later today. With little else for the markets to consider on the day, expect the employment change figures to be the key driver.

Market risk sentiment and sentiment towards crude oil demand will also need considering on the day, however.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.2570 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

 

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – U.S. Dollar Is Under Pressure After Yesterday’s Upside Move

USD/CAD Video 08.04.21.

Canadian Dollar Rebounds Against U.S. Dollar

USD/CAD failed to settle above the resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.2605 and declined below the support at 1.2590 while U.S. dollar lost ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to settle below the support at the 20 EMA at 92.35 and is currently trying to settle below the next support at 92.15. A successful test of this level will push the U.S. Dollar Index towards the 92 level which will be bearish for USD/CAD.

Today, the U.S.  reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased from 728,000 (revised from 719,000) to 744,000 compared to analyst consensus of 680,000. Continuing Jobless Claims declined from 3.75 million (revised from 3.79 million ) to 3.73 million compared to analyst consensus of 3.65 million.

The reports were weaker than expected but foreign exchange market traders remained focused on dovish FOMC Minutes which were released on Wednesday. Treasury yields continued to move lower which was bearish for the American currency. If the current pullback in Treasury yields continues, USD/CAD will find itself under more pressure.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 8 2021

USD to CAD did not manage to settle above the resistance at the 50 EMA at 1.2605 and is trying to settle below the nearest support level at 1.2590. In case this attempt is successful, USD to CAD will head towards the next support level which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.2570.

If USD to CAD manages to settle below the 20 EMA at 1.2570, it will continue its downside move and head towards the support at 1.2550. A successful test of the support at 1.2550 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.2525.

On the upside, the nearest resistance level for USD to CAD is located at the 50 EMA at 1.2605. If USD to CAD gets above the 50 EMA, it will move towards the resistance at 1.2625. A move above this level will push USD to CAD towards the next resistance which is located at 1.2665.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Precious Metals Keep Shining

Gold is not slowing down and continues to aim higher in an extremely handsome bullish price action setup.

Silver isn’t far behind and is moving higher after breaking the mid-term uptrend line.

The EURUSD is aiming for the 23,6% Fibonacci after bouncing from 38,2%.

The GBPUSD is in a big flag formation. Breakout to the upside is very probable.

The EURPLN is showing us how great false breakouts can be. The price collapsed after a fake rise above the horizontal resistance of 4.63.

The AUDUSD is in a long-term head and shoulders formation and a short-term inverted head and shoulders. Which one will win?

The USDCAD has slowed down below two major downtrend lines.

The NZDCHF’s sentiment is negative after the price dropped below the long-term up trendline.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data and the ECB Minutes Put the EUR back in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a particularly quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats for the markets to consider in the early part of the day.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥109.78 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.05% to $0.7610, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.01% to $0.7014.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German factory orders for February are due out later this morning.

Later in the day, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are also due out. Following the ECB’s promise to ramp up bond purchases to curb increasing borrowing costs, expect any resistance to test support.

Away from the economic calendar, lockdown and vaccine news will also need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1865.

For the Pound

It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Construction PMI figures for March are due out.

With the market focus on the government’s easing of lockdown plans, however, we don’t expect the PMI to influence.

Away from the economic calendar, the focus will be on news from the government on what lies ahead vis-à-vis reopening the UK economy.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.03% to $1.3741.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Weekly jobless claim figures are due out later today.

We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however, with positive market sentiment towards the economy likely to offset any negative numbers.

Away from the economic calendar, any chatter on U.S and China relations will need monitoring.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 92.470.

For the Loonie

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.09% to C$1.2620 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Canadian Dollar Declines As Commodities Move Lower

USD/CAD Video 07.04.21.

U.S. Dollar Gains Ground Against Canadian Dollar

USD/CAD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.2625 while the U.S. dollar is flat against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index made an attempt to gain downside momentum below the support at the 20 EMA at 92.35 but this attempt yielded no results. In case the U.S. Dollar Index settles back above the 20 EMA, it will head towards the resistance at 92.50 which will be bullish for USD/CAD.

Today, Canadian dollar and other commodity-related currencies found themselves under pressure due to negative dynamics of commodity markets. WTI oil managed to get below the support at the 50 EMA at 59.10 and is moving towards the $58 level.

Copper, which often serves as an important indicator of the mood of commodity investors, is also under pressure. In case the current sell-off continues, Canadian dollar will continue to move lower.

Foreign exchange market traders will also keep an eye on FOMC Minutes which will be published today. Treasury yields have pulled back from recent highs which is bearish for the U.S. dollar, but any signs that the Fed is not as dovish as expected may push yields higher and provide support to the American currency.

Technical Analysis

usd cad april 7 2021

USD to CAD managed to get above the 50 EMA at 1.2610 and is testing the next resistance level at 1.2625. In case this test is successful, USD to CAD will head towards the next resistance at 1.2665.

If USD to CAD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.2665, it will move towards the next resistance level which is located at 1.2700.

On the support side, a move below the 50 EMA will push USD to CAD back towards the support at 1.2590. If USD to CAD declines below this level, it will head towards the support at the 20 EMA at 1.2570. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2550.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Loonie in the Spotlight, with COVID-19 also in Focus

Earlier in the Day:

It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats for the markets to consider in the early part of the day.

The lack of stats left the markets to take direction from the U.S session and from news wires.

For the Majors

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥109.75 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.01% to $0.7663, with the Kiwi Dollar flat at $0.7059.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Service sector PMIs for Italy and Spain are due out later today.

Finalized numbers are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Expect Italy and the Eurozone’s numbers to have the greatest impact on the EUR.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will also influence.

Late in the session, the FOMC meeting minutes are also due out. The minutes should provide the markets with little else to consider from the projections and Powell testimony.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.02% to $1.1874.

For the Pound

It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized services and composite PMI numbers for March are due out later today.

The markets will be looking for any revisions to the services PMI.

Away from the calendar, with the UK making good progress on the vaccine front, news from the UK government on easing measures will also draw attention.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.01% to $1.3825.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Trade data is due out later today that should have a relatively muted impact on the Greenback.

Late in the session, the FOMC meeting minutes are due out that will draw some attention as will any chatter from Capitol Hill.

On Tuesday, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.28% to 92.335.

For the Loonie

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Ivey PMI figures for March and trade data for February are due out.

We can expect today’s stats to influence, though crude oil inventory numbers may have the final say late in the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.2571 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.