USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis June 5, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0392. Friday’s weak GDP (0.1%m/m and 1.9% for Q1 annualized) combined with the escalation in Europe, has cemented a more dovish expectation from the BoC this week. In the last statement, it was noted that: “The external headwinds” facing Canada have abated somewhat, with the U.S. recovery more resilient and financial conditions more supportive than previously anticipated”, this is likely no longer true, which has helped push the expectation for interest rates in Canada from pricing in a rate hike to a 56% chance of a rate cut in the next 9‐months. Friday’s CFTC FX sentiment report highlights that traders are net long CAD , a position that is likely to be unwound and aggravate CAD weakness. This week’s focus is global central banks, the potential for a shift in tone could help contain CAD losses, even with a more dovish BoC.

The flagging economic indicators from the U.S and China are proving to be a headwind for investors, who are already unnerved by the escalating debt concerns in the Euro region. Looking into this week, key central bank actions are scheduled, which could entice market forces. After a disappointing payroll numbers from the U.S on Friday, market onlookers would be keenly looking forward to the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Congress on Thursday, where a possible hint of QE3 could be on cards. With European economies battered by rising debts, all eyes would be on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, where President Draghi is expected to retain the rates at 1 percent but could initiate bond buying action amid spreading contagion. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to meet EU commissioner Jose Barroso in Berlin today evening to discuss on current situation in Europe, including the preparation for the next European Council meeting June 28-29 in Brussels. Overall, the week could be held hostage to events unfolding in Europe, although hopes of a QE3 could rejuvenate market entities.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 4, 2012 actual v. forecast (virtually no eco data in Europe or the US today)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 04

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

2.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.0%

 

 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Company Gross Profits (QoQ) 

-4.0%

 

-2.0% 

 

-6.5% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-2.40%

 

 

 

-0.80% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 5

12:30

CAD

Building Permits m/m

 

4.7%

13:00

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

   

13:00

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

 

Jun 7

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

CAD

Ivey PMI

 

52.7

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

12:15

CAD

Housing Starts

 

245K

12:30

CAD

Employment Change

 

58.2K

12:30

CAD

Trade Balance

 

0.4B

12:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

7.3%

12:30

CAD

Labor Productivity q/q

 

0.7%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan 

Jun 05  09:30  Belgium

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

In The Eyes of the Experts – 04/06/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • NZD
  • AUD

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • JPY
  • USD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • None

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD 1.2218 1.2318 1.2386 1.2468 1.2557
GBPUSD 1.5185 1.5273 1.5354 1.5442 1.5524
USDJPY 77.11 77.62 78.16 78.67 79.20
USDCHF 0.9565 0.9617 0.9693 0.9745 0.9821
USDCAD 1.0277 1.0335 1.0388 1.0446 1.0499
AUDUSD    0.9520    0.9602    0.9662    0.9745    0.9805   

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 4 – 8, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%. 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD broke records this week, closing at 1.0411

With crude oil prices plunging to trade close to 83.00 losing close to 20% of its value and future demand being reduced by slow growth, Canada’s economy will see negative effects as they are dependent on their oil exports to the US.

Crude oil inventories in the US hit a 22 year high, showing a huge glut in the US but also the worldwide market is over supplied.

Compounding the negative outlook for Canada with the strength of the USD as risk aversion and safe havens remain the investors cry this week. There has been little chance for the CAD to gain.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 01, 2012

1.0411

1.0332

1.0443

1.0332

0.76%

May 31, 2012

1.0332

1.0302

1.0366

1.0262

0.28%

May 30, 2012

1.0303

1.0238

1.0311

1.0232

0.63%

May 29, 2012

1.0238

1.0257

1.0270

1.0208

-0.19%

May 28, 2012

1.0257

1.0260

1.0267

1.0224

-0.03%

This will be a big week for Canada watchers in that there are two major domestic risks that could swing market pricing beyond global influences, and other developments of less significance to markets but which nonetheless provide an evolving picture of the performance of the Canadian economy.  Both of those risks are likely to be dovish to the Canada curve and CAD in our opinion. 

Expect the BoC to take a moderately more dovish approach, but the biggest risk is whether they repeat their commitment to raising rates without providing a hint at a timeline to their views.  A fuller re-write of the April 17th statement will likely wait until the July 5th statement and MPR following Greek elections and when the BoC can revisit its quarterly forecasts and underlying domestic and foreign assumptions. 

Canada also releases job figures for May on Friday.  Look for a flat employment report as recent gains are consolidated.  Canada is coming off the strongest back-to-back monthly job gains since 1981 when 143,000 jobs were created in January and February of that year versus 140.5k in March and April of this year.  It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary lift following weakness dating back to last Fall, or whether this is sustainable.  Canada also releases housing starts for May and trade figures for April on Friday. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Major Economic Events for the week of May 28- June 1 actual v. forecast for the Canadian Dollar

Time

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Thursday, May 31

08:30

 CAD

 

Current Account

-10.3B

-11.0B

-9.7B

 

 

Friday, June 01

08:30

 CAD

 

GDP (MoM)

0.1%

0.3%

-0.2%

   

Major Economic Events for the week of May 28- June 1 actual v. forecast for the US Dollar

Time

Cur.

 

     Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

Tuesday, May 29

 

10:00

 USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

70.0

68.7

 

 

Wednesday, May 30

 

10:00

 USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM)

-5.5%

0.1%

3.8%

 

 

Thursday, May 31

 

08:15

 USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

133K

148K

113K

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Continuing Jobless Claims

3242K

3250K

3278K

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

383K

370K

373K

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9%

1.9%

2.2%

 

 

09:45

 USD

 

Chicago PMI

52.7

56.5

56.2

 

 

Friday, June 01

 

08:30

 USD

 

Average Weekly Hours

34.4

34.5

34.5

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

82K

160K

87K

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.1%

8.1%

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM)

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls

69K

150K

77K

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

 

 

10:00

 USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Index

53.5

53.9

54.8

 

 

                             

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on Nov 01, 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on Jan 26, 2011.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Canadian and US Markets

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 4

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

 

-1.5%

 

Jun 5

12:30

CAD

Building Permits m/m

 

4.7%

13:00

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

   

13:00

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

 

Jun 7

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

CAD

Ivey PMI

 

52.7

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

12:15

CAD

Housing Starts

 

245K

12:30

CAD

Employment Change

 

58.2K

12:30

CAD

Trade Balance

 

0.4B

12:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

7.3%

12:30

CAD

Labor Productivity q/q

 

0.7%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

USD/CAD Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair shot straight up for the session on Friday as the Non-Farm Payroll number came out very weak. The mere 69 thousand jobs that America added suggests that the demand for Canadian crude will be very weak in the near term. The Canadians send over 80% of their exports to the United States, and it looks as if their biggest customer is struggling to keep a job. This is never good news economically for an exporter, and as a result this punished the Canadian dollar.

The break out above the 1.03 level was a significant move, and the Chinese slowing down is a bit of a “double whammy” at this point, as the Canadians will simply find themselves selling less crude overall. The Canadian economy is highly leveraged to the commodity sector, and as long as the commodities like oil, gold, and natural gas all suffer, the Loonie will be soft in general. If the United States continues to be weak – the pair should shoot straight up.

The pair is known to grind sideways for long periods of time only to make sudden and violent moves. It looks as though we are in one of those periods now, and as long as the markets can stay above the 1.03 level, we should be in supercharged bullish mode. Of course, a break below that still has to contend with the 1.01 to parity level as support, and we would be willing to buy candles that looked supportive in the area. In fact, it isn’t until we break below the parity level that we would suddenly think of selling in this pair as the breakout above the 1.01 level was so significant. The breaking of the 1.03 level was simply an exclamation point on the bullish move that continues to impress us.

The buying of hammers after small dips is one of our favorite trades, and we think we may see a few. The 1.03 level should be supportive, and a break of the candle form the Friday session would force us to buy as well. 

USD/CAD Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair had a very bullish week as the oil markets fell apart. The lack of demand around the world in a global slowdown will continue to punish the Canadian dollar as oil prices fall. The United States and China both have produced poor economic numbers at the end of the week, and this only puts an exclamation point on the bearish case in oil. 

However, the 1.05 level above does in fact look resistive, so we think that any move higher will have to contend with this area. None the less, we still believe in the bull case, and are buying pullbacks in this pair. 

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of June 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis June 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD climbed today, as crude prices continued to fall, creating more weakness for the CAD, which closed at 1.0391

CAD has weakened further, losing another 0.5% since yesterday’s close or a total of 6% since its high on April 27th. Previous periods of risk aversion have typically been relatively short and violent and it is increasingly evident that we are in the midst of just such a period. Unless there is an attempt to relieve some of the European uncertainty, CAD losses are likely to continue.

Eco data in the US was and has been very negative, but has not put a dent in the strength of the USD.

To sum up the US for the past few days, there is just one thing to say, “spring stall” most of the indicators from the US have been negative or lackluster.

Employment data is terrible, Unemployment data is just as bad, Housing data is negative overall. Durable goods and retail sales, consumer confidence and manufacturing have all turned negative.

If it wasn’t for the mess in Europe, investors would be fleeing the US. Today, the Nonfarm data showed that the US only added 69,000 jobs, when it needs to average 200,000 additions per month. Unemployment has climbed back to 8.2%. GBP was revised downward this week and ISM manufacturing reported below forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jun. 01

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Capital Spending 

3.30%

 

1.30% 

 

7.60% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

50.40

 

52.20 

 

53.30 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Man PMI 

48.40

 

 

 

48.70 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.1%

 

2.0% 

 

4.7% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

45.4

 

46.4 

 

46.9 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

 

44.4 

 

44.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.2

 

45.0 

 

45.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

 

45.0 

 

45.0 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.9

 

49.7 

 

50.2 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.0%

 

11.0% 

 

11.0% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

69K

 

150K 

 

77K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.2%

 

8.1% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

82K

 

160K 

 

87K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

53.5

 

53.9 

 

54.8 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Forecast

Previous

 

Jun 4

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

 

-1.5%

 

Jun 5

12:30

CAD

Building Permits m/m

 

4.7%

13:00

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

   

13:00

CAD

Overnight Rate

1.00%

1.00%

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

53.5

 

Jun 6

12:30

USD

Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   

18:00

USD

Beige Book

   

 

Jun 7

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

383K

14:00

CAD

Ivey PMI

 

52.7

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Jun 8

12:15

CAD

Housing Starts

 

245K

12:30

CAD

Employment Change

 

58.2K

12:30

CAD

Trade Balance

 

0.4B

12:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate

 

7.3%

12:30

CAD

Labor Productivity q/q

 

0.7%

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-51.8B

14:00

USD

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

   

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 31  14:30  Sweden 

Jun 04  10:00  Norway 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan 

Jun 05  09:30  Belgium

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

USD/CAD Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair rose and cleared the 1.03 level on Thursday as the resistance finally gave way. The oil markets continue to look weak, and as a result of this CAD is hurting. This should continue as there is no real support for oil at the present level, and the resistance area breaking is a serious change of momentum.

However, today’s Non-Farm Payroll number will more than likely have a large effect on this pair as well. Typically, if the jobs number is strong in America, this pair will sell off as there is an implied demand for oil from Canada. If the number is weak, this normally has a detrimental effect on oil markets, and in turn has a positive effect on this pair. Because of this, the USD/CAD pair is one of our favorites on Non-Farm Payroll Fridays.

The pair has recently broken out above the 1.01 level to become bullish all of the sudden. The 1.03 level was the first major resistance area to overcome, and as it has we have a bullish bias now. If the pair falls, we think that the 1.01 to parity area should provide support for a potential buy in this market as well. The breaking of the Thursday candle to the upside will simply show a continuation of the bullish momentum.

The 1.05 level above will more than likely invite some kind of reaction as the area is a “large round number.” However, the area isn’t a major one, and this should give way eventually as well. The 1.10 level is a major area, and this may be where we end up if the economic situation truly gets worse in the next few months. Because of this, we still have a bullish bias as long as we can stay above the parity level.

A break above the parity would be a massive reversal that we couldn’t ignore. At that point we would have to be sellers, but this seems fairly unlikely as the problems with the global economy continue, especially in the European Union.

 

USD/CAD Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast June 1, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis June 1, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0319 as the USD continues to gather momentum. Markets shrugged off disappointing eco data, and decided to wait for the all important Nonfarm payroll report to verify the ADP and unemployment figures released today. The US revised down their GDP estimates but the Current Account surprised markets coming in substantially lower with is positive for the USD.

No major negative news headlines, an increased focused and support for the ERF initiative, a weaker than expected European CPI (2.4%), expectation that Ireland will vote in favor of the fiscal compact, worries that markets are oversold and the upcoming release of China’s PMI, Eurozone PMIs and nonfarm employment have markets vaguely more positive today. In this environment equities are stronger, commodities are off their lows, bond yields are mixed and the USD has lost some of yesterday’s strength, that was until late morning in US trading when investors sentiment turned negative, commodities fell, equities turned bearish and the USD picked up momentum as the euro fell below the 1.24 price again.

Risk reversals remain elevated, suggesting there is still the desire to protect against USD strength.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-8.7%

 

0.7% 

 

6.0% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

6.1%

 

4.0% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.5% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-2.6% 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.7%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

0K

 

-5K 

 

18K 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.5% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

133K

 

148K 

 

113K 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Current Account 

-10.3B

 

-11.0B 

 

-9.7B 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

383K

 

370K 

 

373K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3242K

 

3250K 

 

3278K 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Chicago PMI 

52.7

 

56.5 

 

56.2 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

Jun 1

TBD

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

4.2%

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

46.9

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.8

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

50.5

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10.9%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.0%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

0.3%

14:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

54.8

 

 

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair has been ripping higher for a couple of weeks now. This pair is actively tracking the weakness in oil, and the oil markets gave way on Wednesday. Oddly enough, the 1.03 resistance level has held prices down though. The USD/CAD and oil markets can sometimes lag each other by a day or two. It is because of this that we think the pair goes higher, but would be a bit cautious until we see that daily close above the 1.03 resistance area. At that point, we are more than comfortable buying this pair as the Dollar is king at the moment, and the “risk off” trade should continue to push this pair higher.

USD/CAD Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast May 31, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD continues to skyrocket, on risk aversion and safe haven movement. The pair is now trading at 1.0308 as the USD continues to climb. The Dollar Index is holding just under 83.00 at 82.98.

Risk Aversion has exploded today as the euro is falling and has hit a low below 1.24 and continues to drop. The EU turned into a three ring circus, with Spain as the main attraction and a lot of he said, she said as the Spanish Prime Minister tried to clarify his statements of earlier in the week, about funding the Spanish banks. Rumors are that the ECB declined the offer, while the ECB is claiming they have never been officially approached by Spain. Interest rates in Spain and Italy soared today, with Spain at 6.7% and Italy right behind. In the third ring is Greece where new polls show the anti-euro party now in the lead.

Unfortunately for the CAD, there has been no support for the Looney and with oil prices trading below 89.00 the overall sentiment for the CAD is negative.

In the US today, the housing data was negative well under forecast, but it hardly made a ripple in the strength of the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 30

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5%

 

3.0% 

 

-3.4% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

0.81

 

0.48 

 

0.43 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

6.03%

 

 

 

5.66% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

Government Bond Auctions

May 31  14:30  Sweden 

Jun 04  10:00  Norway 

Jun 05  00:30  Japan  Jun 05  09:30 

Jun 05 14:30  Sweden 

Jun 06  09:30  Germany 

Jun 06  09:30  Portugal 

Jun 06 14:30  UK 

Jun 07  00:30  Japan 

Jun 07  08:30  Spain 

Jun 07  08:50  France 

Jun 07  09:10  Sweden 

Jun 07  15:00  US 

Jun 08  10:00  Belgium 

Jun 08  15:30  Italy 

USD/CAD Forecast May 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell on Tuesday in order to form a bearish engulfing candle for the session. Although this could be a sell signal, we cannot help but notice how far this market had come up to this point. With that in mind, it is almost impossible to think about selling at these higher levels, and we think that this will simply be a pullback from which to buy this market. It isn’t until we see a close below the parity level that we think this market is able to be sold. In the meantime, we just assume this is a pullback from a parabolic move that will eventually offer a nice supportive candle to buy.

USD/CAD Forecast May 30, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast May 30, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 30, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0220 on a cautious day, as investors sit on the sidelines.

There is no domestic data, leaving CAD vulnerable to broader trends. The most significant upcoming domestic risk is the June 5th BoC meeting, where Governor Carney is expected to dampen his hawkish tone. Currently the OIS market is pricing in no chance of an interest rate move in the next 9‐months. G7 currency volatility has dropped off its recent highs which are positive for CAD; however with ongoing extreme uncertainty in Europe the bias remains that vol will continue to climb higher putting temporary downward pressure on CAD. Oil prices remain depressed and risk aversion remains the theme, expect the CAD to continue to trade in this range.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 29

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.6%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.8%

 

6.3% 

 

10.3% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

6.9%

 

 

 

-9.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

21

 

-7 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

64.9

 

70.0 

 

68.7 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair had a bearish session on Monday as the thin volume provided an opportunity for the sellers to take the ball for a day. The pair has been extremely bullish lately, and the move impressive. However, the move has been a bit overdone so a pullback is more than reasonable. In fact, this is exactly what this session looks like. 

We still see the 1.01 to parity level as massive support on the retest. Because of this, we are willing to let this pair fall all the way down to that area to look for supportive candle to buy. However, if we get a nice looking supportive candle between now and then – we would also be forced to buy. A daily close above the 1.03 level is also a buy signal. Selling isn’t done until below the parity level. 

USD/CAD Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast May 29, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 29, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0253 slightly down at present. With US markets closed today, the no eco data from Europe investors created their own fantasy world in early trading, as sentiment turned positive on hopes from Greece but later were awakened by growing problems in Spain. The DI dropped in the morning and climbed back to its prior level before markets in Europe closed.

EUR rallied in the Asian session after a weekend poll suggested that the Greek pro‐bailout New Democracy had gained an advantage over the radical left anti‐bailout Syriza; however polls remain tight and risk is high, even with a ND win. News reports this weekend suggest that Greece will run out of cash on June 20th. This combined with ongoing reports of bank withdrawals poses a major problem for the country. The IMF is unlikely to extend their requirement that Greece reach a debt level of 120% by 2020, leaving Greece increasingly vulnerable to another round of debt relief or default. However, this time the public sector would be more materially hit, since there is limited debt held by the private sector.

Spanish yields are moving rapidly higher as the banking sector is under pressure and potential recapitalization costs are large.

There is no US data today, leaving the market to focus on how sustainable today’s rally is and upcoming events, including President Draghi’s comments on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 29

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-3.5%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

 

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair had an interesting week as the initial move was lower, but by the Friday close we had this pair slamming into the 1.03 level. The area is massive resistance at the moment, and we think that a lot could be settled at this price if we get a significant breakout.

The candle for the week is a bit of a hammer-like shape, and the pressure certainly looks as if the pressure for the bulls is increasing. The oil markets are falling apart, and it should bode well for the Dollar in Canadian dollar terms. The CAD is highly sensitive to the price of oil, and as the oil markets have been absolutely soft, the value of the CAD has fallen. The most interesting an obvious level on the Light Sweet Crude is the $90 level at the moment. If it gives way, the Loonie will suffer and this pair will break above the 1.03 level in reaction.

The risk off attitude of the markets certainly isn’t helping the CAD either. Although it is highly correlated to the United States and its economy, it is considered to be “riskier” than the Greenback. As forex is a relative market, the CAD should continue to suffer as long as there is a sense of impending bad news. Certainly the situation in Europe isn’t going to be a help for the CAD as the biggest trade at the moment is to buy US Treasuries, which of course need US dollars to be bought.

The economy in the United States is doing relatively better than most places around the world at the moment, and this should keep the Loonie somewhat buoyant, just not in this pair. The oil markets simply have to find a footing in order for the CAD to gain in value again for any significant amount. We are buying a daily close above the 1.03 level, and supportive candles in the parity to 1.01 levels, as the zone looks very supportive. It isn’t until a close below the parity level that we could sell this pair.

 

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair has been on a massive bull run as of late, and the Friday session will have done little to change that perception. The 1.03 level was breached during the session, and although the market was repelled at that level, this still shows the overall bullishness in this market.

The oil markets are certainly going to have a massive input into the attitude of this pair, and as a result anyone trading this market needs to be aware of what is going on in the oil pits. For example, the Light Sweet Crude markets have been showing a lot of support at the $90 level lately, and as a result the selling has slowed down over the last couple of sessions.

However, if the $90 level gives way, the Canadian dollar will be sold off as a result. The 1.03 level is a big resistance area, so a break above it would certainly mean something. The breaking of this level and the close above it on the daily chart will have us buying as it shows a resumption of the bullish momentum. Obviously, there is a real chance that the level could hold as well, but with the recent bullish behavior, it would take an obvious signal for us to sell.

The parity to 1.01 level giving way as support would be such a signal, and this shows just how bullish this pair suddenly is. The oil markets will more than likely have to spike in order for this area to give way as support, so again – a lot of this depends on oil markets.

The US dollar has simply been far too strong lately as the European Union’s problems keep forcing investors out of that area, and into the United States. The demand for Treasuries continues, and as a result this should continue to drive demand for the USD. This in turn will continue to hurt the price of oil, and as such the Canadian dollar.

We feel that the next move is up, but we need confirmation in the form of that daily close above the 1.03 level. As a result, we are sitting tight at the moment, but willing to buy without hesitation if this happens. Also, there is the possibility of a pullback, in which we would buy supportive candles near the 1.01 to parity support zone.

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast May 28, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 28 – June 1, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%. 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD closed out the week before the US holiday at 1.0293. Markets shifted based on position squaring, particularly as there is hope for a European solution and the European Redemption Fund comes back into the headlines. As the global growth outlook softens and the European crisis escalates, it becomes increasingly clear that the need for more than a band aid solution is rising and threatening global financial market stability.  In this environment, equities are quiet

Highest: 1.0312

Lowest: 1.0152

Difference: 0.0160

Average: 1.0244

Change %: 1.14

As the Euro‐crisis escalates traders have rapidly pared their bets for interest rate hikes by the BoC. As the top chart details, at the end of April there was one hike fully priced in over the next 9‐months; this has now fallen to just a 10% chance of a hike. Rising vol, dropping oil, increasing uncertainty on the global growth picture are all weighing heavily on Canadian interest rate expectations and CAD.

Canada Q1 GDP will be released on June 1, and markets are anticipating GDP growth of 2% with an increase of 0.4% in the monthly income-approach number. We think that Canadian consumers slowed down their shopping during Q1 2012. Retail sales data indicate that the contribution to growth from retail trade will be just about zero on the quarter — after retail sales grew at an annualized rate of 6.9% from Q3 2011 to Q4 2011. The pace of retail sales is the principal proxy that we use in order to estimate changes in consumption as measured in the ‘expenditure-approach’ GDP numbers which markets typically focus on. Slower consumption would allay concerns that Canadian consumers are ramping up their shopping, thereby posing a threat to the macro economy and necessitating ‘prudential’ action to defuse their binging. Rather, Canadian consumers have already binged, with Canada’s aggregate consumption having expanded post-2008 even as most of the developed world economies have retrenched. The question now is whether the slow-down will be gradual or abrupt. Aside from watching the consumption numbers, we’ll be looking to see the extent to which construction continues to drive growth. The other major issue is the contribution to growth from oil and gas extraction, which looked fairly weak through the first two months of 2012

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Major Economic Events for the week of May 21-25 actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar

Currency

 

Actual

Forecast

Previous

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.62M

4.62M

4.47M

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.1%

0.5%

0.4%

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

0.4%

0.4%

-0.2%

USD

New Home Sales

343K

335K

332K

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

0.8M

2.1M

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

-0.6%

1.1%

-0.8%

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

372K

372K

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

0.5%

-3.7%

USD

Revised UoM Consumer

79.3

77.7

77.8

 Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on 01 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on 26 Jan 2011.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the American and Canadian Markets.

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 28

Tentative

USD

Treasury Currency Report

 

 

May 29

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-3.5%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

 

May 31

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment

119K

12:30

CAD

Current Account

-10.3B

12:30

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

2.2%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

370K

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

56.2

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M

 

Jun 1

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

-0.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment

115K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.2%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.8

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 28, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD saw a stronger US dollar push upwards again today, trading at 1.0286 up 0.0017 in mid day trading.

With oil prices continuing to decay and no eco data from Canada, the pair is at the sentiment of the US. Spikes in risk aversion tend to prove temporary, typically measured in weeks not months. We are firm believers that the current downside pressure on CAD will continue as long as risk aversion remains high; but that this is an interruption and not a reversal in the strong CAD trend. As the Euro‐crisis escalates traders have rapidly pared their bets for interest rate hikes by the BoC

The week has seen encouraging numbers from the U.S but the situation in Europe continue to weigh on investors. Next week could give a better indication of the U.S economic recuperation with the Nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for release. Also in line, next week is the U.S GDP figures; both heavyweight numbers could have a significant bearing on the currency and commodity prices. The recent string of weak numbers from China is raising fresh concerns about the pliability of the Chinese economy amid softening global demand and in that regards, policy easing from China could be on cards in the coming days.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 25

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.7

 

5.6 

 

5.7 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Employment Level 

4.05M

 

4.02M 

 

4.04M 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.90%

 

12.80% 

 

13.30% 

 

 

 

 

MXN

 

 

 

Mexican Unemployment Rate 

4.9%

 

4.9% 

 

4.6% 

 

 

 

 

MXN

 

 

 

Mexican Trade Balance 

0.560B

 

1.000B 

 

1.575B 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Previous

 

May 28

Tentative

USD

Treasury Currency Report

 

 

May 29

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-3.5%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

69.2

 

May 30

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.6%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

4.1%

USD/CAD Forecast May 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair rose during the session, but ended up almost unchanged by the end of Thursday. The pair is being moved around by the oil markets, and those commodity markets found a little bit of a bid during the day, and this gave the Canadian dollar a bit of a reprieve. The 1.03 level looks resistive and strong, so we are waiting to see a close above the level in order to go long again. As for selling, we won’t do this as we think a fall will simply be a pullback to the 1.01 level or so as the recent move is a bit overextended.

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 25, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/CAD Forecast May 25, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis May 25, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD in early trading continues to climb, with the Looney having no strength to combat the risk aversion mode of the markets. The pair is trading for 1.0263 with the USD picking up 0.0010.

In this environment equities are higher even as equity volatility has also shifted higher, oil dropped briefly below $90 before recovering (low oil prices helps to offset the negative growth outlook on the back of weak PMIs); bond yields are mixed and the USD is shifting weaker at this time against most of its partners.

US eco data showed a drop in durable goods which came in below forecast along with a lackluster jobless report, but the CAD still was not able to push against the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 24

03:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Mfg PMI 

48.70

 

 

 

49.30 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

07:58

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.4

 

47.0 

 

46.9 

 

 

 

08:28

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

47.0 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate

106.9

 

109.4 

 

109.9 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.0

 

46.1 

 

45.9 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

113.3

 

117.4 

 

117.5 

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

100.9

 

102.0 

 

102.7 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

32.4K

 

32.3K 

 

31.9K 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

3.6%

 

3.2% 

 

-3.3% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders

-0.6%

 

0.9% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

-3.7% 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K

 

370K 

 

372K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3260K

 

3250K 

 

3289K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

May 25

TBD

ALL

 

G8 Meetings

     

13:55

USD

 

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment