Dollar Has to Make one More Small Step for a Major Buy Signal

Indices continue the buying bonanza.

Commodities fall down, mostly due to the stronger USD.

Dollar Index creates an iH&S pattern.

EURUSD breaks the neckline of the H&S formation.

AUDUSD bounces from the upper line of the triangle.

USDCHF with almost identical setup as the Dollar Index.

CADCHF breaks the upper line of the triangle and aims higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

American Dollar Close to a Major Buy Signal

GBPUSD reaches and bounces from a crucial horizontal resistance.

USDCHF creates a right shoulder of the iH&S pattern.

NZDUSD, on the other hand, creates a right shoulder of the H&S pattern; we are close to the neckline.

NZDCAD is in an even better spot as here the price is breaking the neckline as we speak.

CADCHF locked inside of a big symmetric triangle. Waiting for the breakout.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Speculators Bet on a Continued Commodity Rally in 2021

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last Tuesday, December 8. A week where vaccine and stimulus optimism continue to propel stock markets higher and the dollar lower while bonds held steady. Commodities traded mixed with continued profit taking across agriculture commodities and a big setback for natural gas more than offsetting gains in oil, fuel products and metals, both precious and industrials.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded lower by 1.2%, hurt by continued profit taking in agriculture commodities led by soybeans, wheat, cocoa and cattle together with a 16.7% drop in the price of natural gas. Overall these developments helped drive a 3% reduction in the total net long held by speculators across 24 major commodities to 2.3 million lots, but not far from the February 2017 record of 2.4 million lots. A clear sign that speculators expect more to come from the commodities in 2021 as the reflation trade gathers momentum and the dollar potentially continues to weaken.

It is also worth noting that speculative positions, compared with recent peaks in 2017 and 2018, are much more spread out across all sectors, with net long positions held in all but one (CBOT Wheat) commodity. In February 2017 when the net-long hit the mentioned record, the energy sector accounted for 56% of the total length while today that share is down to 42%.

graph 1

Energy

The combined net long in Brent (+27k lots) and WTI (-1.6k lots) reached 602k lots, the highest since January. This after Brent began toying with $50/b as the market, despite current Covid-19 lockdowns and loss of mobility, continued to price in a vaccine-led recovery next year. The natural gas long was cut by 26% by in response to a dramatic 16.7% sell-off on demand concerns driven by unseasonal warm weather across the U.S.

Metals

Gold was bought for a second week in response to the rally that followed the failed break below $1800/oz. The bulk of the 19k lots of buying was driven by fresh longs, something that also helps to explain the increased volatility seen last week when the move above and subsequent failure to hold $1850/oz triggered a 45 dollar correction last Wednesday. Net platinum buying extended into a fifth week and during this time, the white metal has outperformed its yellow big brother by 17%.

Speculators in silver meanwhile maintained a net long close to 43k lots for a fourth consecutive week. Thereby extending the lack of price response in a week where the metal rallied by close to 3%. During a week of sideways trading before popping to a fresh seven-year high, the net long in HG copper rose by 5% to 90.4k lots, not far from the 91.6k lots record high recorded two months ago.

Agriculture

For a second week, a broad but relatively small amount of selling was seen across the sector with the soybeans complex and sugar accounting for the bulk of the 58k lots reduction to 1 million lots. Only short position was held in CBOT wheat before a post-WASDE and Russia export tax and quota threats gave the crop a strong end of week boost.

graph 2

Forex

Dollar bears continued to be awarded in the week to December 8 as the Greenback spiraled lower to reach the lowest against both the euro and the Bloomberg Dollar Index since April 2018. The tumble being part of a broader vaccine optimism led move across financial markets pricing in a recovery in global growth for 2021 and the potential for better investment opportunities outside the U.S.

These developments helped drive a 14% increase in the combined dollar short against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to $30.7 billion, a ten-week high. The bulk of the $3.7 billion of net dollar selling occurred against the euro which saw a 12% rise in the euro net-long to 156,429 lots (€19.6 billion). The other and more surprising contribution came from Sterling which despite trading lower on the week saw 13,609 lots of net buying which swung the net back to a long for the first time in three months.

The Swiss franc together with the Mexican Peso and Russian Ruble saw net selling while the net long in Japanese yen reached a fresh four year high at 48,166 lots.

graph 3

Financials

graph 2

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

COT

This article is provided by COT, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Trading Currencies: One Down, One Still Very Much Standing

The 2 major risk events of the past 9 months continue to be the key drivers of FX risk trading.

  1. Caseloads of COVID-19 and a possible vaccine to it.
  2. The US presidential election.

The second point has now officially been ‘declared’ with President Trump finally allowing a transition process to President-Elect Biden to begin. This was probably seen as an ‘unexpected’ outcome considering the Trump team is still pursuing legal challenges in several of the swing states yet to official declare.

However, with Georgia officials declaring this week if there will be any legal challenge remaining, that could, in theory, be successful in the remaining states. Yet, it would still not be enough to get Trump to 270 electoral colleague votes that are needed to be re-elected. This ‘risk event’ is now officially over. However, the Trump presidency is not – that is still official until January 19 and there are still some risks here.

Is it time to go for risk-on markets?

The reaction to Trump’s concession was one of risk-on, the equity market made record highs in the US and the USD fell against all G10 currencies on the news, with risk currencies in the form of the AUD, NOK and SEK being the biggest movers.

AUD/USD is again through $0.73. While FX strategists at UOB group predicts that the pair may break above 0.7400 in 1-3 weeks’ time, the question for it over the final week of 2020 is will the risk levers continue to push it higher? And, will that mean a year-end target of $0.75 is still possible? The macrothematics suggest yes, but real events could still be a headwind.

Namely COVID-19 cases.

That first point is really the major catalyst now for further risk rallies or pull backs, and as discussed in last week’s note caseloads are still growing almost exponentially in the US and Europe, not to mention that global cases have already surged past 60 million, which is weighing on short-term confidence.

Beware of short-term risks

Case-in-point: the US consumer confidence fell to back into pessimism in November to 96.1 from 101.4 (100 is equilibrium). Future expectations deteriorated (fell to 89.5 from 98.2) specifically due to a resurgence in COVID cases and the subsequent restrictions. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for November fell more than expected, to 15 versus estimates of 20 and well down on last month’s record high of 29, most components slipped and the most notable was new orders down to 12 from 32.

This must be seen as a short-term risk for FX. Watch for possible switching to the JPY and CHF as traders cover possible volatility to end the year.

Key dates before the end of 2021

Major events that can bring volatility to the markets in the remaining weeks of this year:

  • December 10 – Vaccine Development: Some sources suggest that Emergency Use Authorization for both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may potentially be approved on this date
  • December 14 – US Presidential Election: Members of the Electoral College will meet and cast their ballots for president and vice president
  • December 31 – Brexit: End of the transition period

This article is prepared by Lucia Han from Mitrade and is for reference only. We do not represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete. The article content neither takes into account your personal investment objects nor your financial situation, and therefore it should not be relied upon as such. You should seek for your own advice.

Join the “Classics without Borders” Contest and Get Real Money Prizes

FXOpen has been pleasing traders with its Forex contests for many years, and this time it is launching the contest for beginners and those who have registered with FXOpen no earlier than January 2020. 10 best traders will share the prize fund of 1500 USD.

The “Classics without borders” contest starts on November 30, 2020 and will last until December 24, 2020. Registration is open now and will be closed on December 13, 2020.

Terms of the contest:

  • Start deposit: 5000 USD;
  • Leverage: 1:100;
  • Trading instruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and stocks;
  • Account type: contest demo ECN;
  • Advisors and locking: allowed.

Terms for receiving the prize:

It is required to increase the initial deposit by at least 20%, and to make at least 10 trades with total volume of 10 lots. The winners will be the best 10 Equity traders who have met the above conditions.

How to join the contest?

New users must register in ForexCup and join the contest with data from your personal account. Existing FXOpen clients have to pass verification in MyFXOpen and join the competition with data from MyFXOpen or ForexCup. It should be noted that all contest accounts are blocked until the contest starts.

Please visit FXOpen broker official website to learn more.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 93.275, Strengthens Over 93.775

The U.S. Dollar is on the defensive again versus a group of major currencies on Tuesday as rising optimism that U.S. lawmakers could agree on new fiscal stimulus to blunt the economic impact of the coronavirus dampened demand for safer assets.

Risk appetite also improved after U.S. President Donald Trump left the hospital and returned to the White House following treatment for COVID-19, a development viewed as reducing political uncertainties in the near-term.

At 14:20 GMT, December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 93.475, down 0.070 or -0.07%.

The lead taken by Trump’s presidential opponent Joe Biden in electoral polls ahead of next month’s election is also seen as negative for the U.S. currency, according to Reuters.

Daily December U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 92.755. A move through 94.795 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through 94.090 will change the minor trend to up.

The first minor range is 92.755 to 94.795. Its 50% level at 93.775 is resistance.

The second minor range is 91.750 to 94.795. Its 50% level at 93.275 is potential support. It’s also the last support before the 92.755 main bottom.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The December U.S. Dollar Index is currently hovering above 93.275. This suggests that buyers are coming in to defend the uptrend. Trader reaction to this level will determine the intraday direction of the market.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 93.275 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 93.775. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the minor top at 94.090.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 93.275 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 92.755 the next likely downside target. A trade through this price changes the trend to down.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Risk Appetite Firms as Signs of Trump’s Improving Health Soothes Markets

The early trade in the financial markets on Monday indicate a slight rise in demand for riskier assets, suggesting that investors are pinning their hopes on a quick recovery from President Donald Trump and a discharge from the hospital later in the day, easing some of the political uncertainty that rattled global markets during Friday’s session.

Trump Could Return to White House on Monday

President Trump was helicoptered to Walter Reed Hospital for treatment for the coronavirus on Friday, but his doctors say he has responded well and could return to the White House on Monday.

Doctors treating Trump say they are pleased with his progress. Relief about his health could fuel a rally in equities and other risky assets as investors prepare for the run-up to next month’s U.S. presidential election.

Global investors were stunned late Thursday/early Friday after Trump announced that he and the first lady had tested positive for coronavirus.

With less than a month until the presidential election on November 3, Trump’s contraction of the coronavirus is another source of market volatility that makes the outcome of the vote even more difficult to predict, Reuters said.

Global Equity Markets Edge Higher in Early Trade

Early Monday, Asian-Pacific stock indexes were trading higher with the Australian S&P/ASX 200 futures up 1.16%, Japanese stock futures rising 0.75%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures up 1.38%.

In the U.S., the e-mini S&P 500 Index futures are up about 0.45% in early trading, while NASDAQ futures gained about 0.58%.

US Dollar Struggling Against Most Majors

The U.S. Dollar is losing ground against the riskier commodity-currencies. The AUD/USD is trading up 0.33%. The NZD/USD is gaining 0.18% and the Canadian Dollar is posting a 0.22% gain.

The Euro is up 0.14% and the British Pound is trading 0.07% higher. Surprisingly, the Swiss Franc is also up 0.41%. The best indication that today may be shaping up to be a “risk-on” session is the 0.20% gain by the Dollar/Yen.

Overall Assessment

Equities and other risk-on currencies should remain firm throughout the session by easing concerns about Trump’s health. Meanwhile, for the U.S. Dollar, the direction is not that clear cut. It could fall against most majors if risk appetite increases, but it could rise against the Japanese Yen if the currency loses its appeal as a safe-haven asset.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dollar and Stock Markets Mature for a Correction

DAX makes contact with the first important resistance

SP500 corrects massive upswing from Monday

CAC stays above the major support after the false bearish breakout

Dollar Index goes lower after the head and shoulders pattern

EURUSD tests the first crucial horizontal resistance

USDCHF on the other hand, tests important support

EURJPY reverses higher after the false bearish breakout from the rectangle

Gold on the way to test the 1906 USD/oz

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – In Position to Test Retracement Zone at 94.770 – 95.480

The U.S. Dollar is trading flat against a basket of currencies on Thursday after hitting its highest level since July 24 earlier in the session as it continued to edge towards a major retracement zone on the daily chart.

The safe-haven rally continued following another tech-driven sell-off on Wall Street and while concerns for the global economic recovery amid mounting coronavirus cases continued to weigh on sentiment.

At 07:44 GMT, December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 94.410, down 0.033 or -0.03%. This is down slightly from the intraday high of 94.560.

The greenback is being supported this week by a plunge in risk assets as tech stocks tumbled once again, with investors also spooked by uncertainty around the resurgence in coronavirus cases and prospects of further federal stimulus measures.

Although Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday vowed to keep interest rates near zero and retain an accommodative monetary policy stance for years, it also called for greater help from Congress.

Meanwhile, U.S. business activity slowed in September with manufacturing gains offset by a reversal in the services sector as the recovery appears to be losing momentum at the end of the third quarter.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out Wednesday’s high. A trade through 92.755 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 97.785 to 91.750. Its retracement zone at 94.770 to 95.480 is the primary upside target. Aggressive counter-trend sellers could come in on the first test of this area.

The current minor range is 92.755 to 94.560. Its 50% level at 93.660 is a potential downside target. This level will move up as the index moves higher.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Thursday’s close at 94.445.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 94.445 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the index into the main 50% level at 94.770. Look for sellers on the initial test of this level. Overcoming it, however, could trigger an acceleration into the main Fibonacci level at 95.480.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 94.445 will signal the presence of sellers. This would put the index in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top that could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The first downside target is the 50% level at 93.660, followed by a second 50% level at 93.155.

Side Notes

Thursday’s focus will shift to the latest jobless claims report from the Labor Department, due at 12:30 GMT, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new unemployment filings last week to come in at 840,000, down from 860,000 the previous week. Continuing claims are also expected to fall.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will resume testimony before Congress at 14:00 GMT, while August’s new home sales figures are published at the same time.

Keep an eye on the jobless claims report for any surprises that could create a volatile response by the U.S. Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Stocks Surge Higher. Dollar Give Backs the Gains

 

Dollar Index is giving back the gains. Wedge promotes a further drop

USD/CAD goes under 1.33 again

GBP/USD aims 1.32

AUD/NZD tries to establish presence above 1.084

DAX breaks crucial resistance on 12800

S&P 500 close to the all-time highs

CAC breaks the neckline of the H&S pattern

EUR/USD breaks mid-term down trend line

USD/JPY tries to close the day above 106

Gold drops and tests the 1980 USD/oz support

USD/PLN breaks the lower line of the wedge

USD/CHF on the other hand, breaks the lower line of the flag

GBP/JPY tests the upper line of the sideways trend

Dollar Short at Nine-Year High

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators such as hedge funds and CTA’s across forex, bonds and stocks up until last Tuesday, August 4. Appetite for risk during this period remained strong with dollar weakness and rising negative real yields feeding a rise in prices across global asset markets. The S&P 500 Index added 2.7% to reach a fresh cycle high while the dollar weakened further against a basket of major currencies. The yield on U.S. ten-year notes dropped 7 bp to 0.50%, thereby supporting a further fall in real yields to a fresh record low at -1.06%.

Continued dollar weakness, albeit at a slowing pace, helped boost the net-short against ten IMM currencies and the Dollar Index to a nine-year high at $29.5 billion. However, just like the previous five weeks the expanding dollar short position was almost solely driven by another rise in the euro net-long to a fresh record of 180,648 lots (€22.6 billion). The 15% increase occurred as the cross challenged and eventually later in the week retraced from €1.19.

Other noticeable changes were a rise in the Swiss franc net-long to 11,660 lots, the highest since March 2014 as well as an almost doubling of the Canadian dollar short to 23,195 lots.

Leveraged fund positions in bonds, stocks and VIX

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Start trading now

This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Surge in Euro Could Drive Index into 94.670

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against a basket of major currencies on Monday with the heavily-weighted Euro leading the way. The greenback is also under pressure against the British Pound and Canadian Dollars, while edging higher versus the safe-have Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.

At 09:26 GMT, September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 95.790, down 0.099 or -0.10%.

The U.S. Dollar is being pressured after EU summit chairman Charles Michel said a recovery fund to revive economies hit by the COVID-19 pandemic could contain 390 billion Euros in grants.

EU leaders made progress toward an agreement over the weekend in Brussels after three days of talks, but they remain at odds over how to carve up the proposed 750 billion Euros ($858.98 billion) recovery fund designed to help Europe cope with its deepest recession since World War Two.

Traders also said the index was being pressured by renewed demand for risk after an early session setback in U.S. stock markets. This move was being fueled by expectations of more stimulus from Europe and also the United States.

Daily September U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 95.720 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out the next main bottom at 95.570 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 97.810. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 96.380 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 95.570 to 97.810. Its 50% level at 96.690 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

We’re going to be watching trader reaction to last week’s low at 95.72. Holding this level could trigger a short-covering rally, but it won’t mean much until buyers can take out the nearest minor top at 96.380.

If overtaking 96.380 can create enough upside momentum then this could set off buy stops over 96.67, 96.69 and 96.960.

A sustained move under 95.720 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the main bottom at 95.570. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the March 9, 2020 bottom at 94.671.

Side Notes

Look for the movement in the Euro to dictate the price action in the September U.S. Dollar Index.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 16, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is falling towards 1.1385 and may later correct to reach 1.1416. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.1340.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading downwards to reach 1.2539 and may later correct towards 1.2591. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1.2454.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling to break 70.60. Possibly, today the pair may break this level and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.96. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to test 70.50 from below and then start a new decline with the target at 69.80.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the descending structure at 106.86; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 107.12 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 106.55.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 0.9444, USDCHF is consolidating around this level; this entire movement is considered as an upside continuation pattern. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9517.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling towards 0.6981 and may later grow to reach 0.0.7009. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6922.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent has broken 43.50 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range and grow with the short-term target at 45.00, After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 43.50 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating above 1804.00. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach 1819.55. Later, the market may start another correction with the target at 1752.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 9150.00, BTCUSD is correcting towards 9210.00. After that, the instrument may resume falling to break 9000.00 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After completing the ascending wave at 3240.5, the S&P 500 Index is falling towards 3200.0. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 3220.4 and then start a new decline to break 3184.5. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 3111.1.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 15, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has extended the wave up to 1.1420. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1.1373 and then start another growth to reach 1.1390, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1330.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, передний, освещенный Автоматически созданное описание

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.2480, GBPUSD is correcting upwards with the target at 1.2588. Later, the market may start a new decline to reach the short-term target at 1.2454.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, компьютер, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating below 71.23. Today, the pair may fall to break 70.55 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.90. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 71.27.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, большой, зеленый, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 107.20. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 107.00 and then start another growth to reach 107.50. Later, the market may resume falling towards 106.94 or even deeper, 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, освещенный, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9400. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 0.9415, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9440 or even higher, 0.9550; if to the downside at 0.9388 – form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9366.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, компьютер, ноутбук, большой Автоматически созданное описание

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.7017, AUDUSD is expected to fall towards 0.6967 and then grow to reach 0.6991, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6924.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, экран, играет, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is moving not far from the upside border of the range. Possibly, the pair may break 43.30 and then continue moving upwards with the target at 45.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to return to 43.30 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, легкий, темный, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1805.00, Gold is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1791.33 or even 1777.17; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 1819.55.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, часы, легкий Автоматически созданное описание

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 9260.00 and testing it from below, BTCUSD is expected to fall to break 9160.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 9000.00 or even 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, телевидение, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After the ascending structure towards 3185.0 and a gap up this morning, the S&P 500 Index is expected to reach 3240.4 and then fall to return to 3185.0, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction with the target at 3111.1; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure towards 3300.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 13, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.1255, EURUSD is moving upwards to reach 1.1338. Possibly, the pair may reach it and then form a new descending structure towards 1.1300. After that, the instrument may start another growth to reach 1.1380 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1225.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.2694 and then fall towards 1.2640. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2712 and then start a new decline with the target at 1.2585.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still falling towards 70.20. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 70.90 and then start a new decline with the first target at 69.50.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the ascending wave at 106.93; right now, it is falling. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 106.55 and then start another correction to the upside with the first target at 107.17.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.9399, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9377. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.9440 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to return to 0.9399.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6960 to the upside, AUDUSD is still growing and may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.6994. Later, the market may start a new decline towards 0.6965 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.7000.

AUDUSD

BRENT

After finishing the correction at 41.41, Brent has completed another ascending impulse towards 43.50. Today, the asset may form a new descending structure towards 42.50 and then grow to break 43.50. After that, the instrument may continue moving upwards with the short-term target at 44.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After falling and reaching 1794.00, Gold is correcting towards 1805.50. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1792.50 and then start another correction to return to 1805.50.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9260.00. Today, the pair may fall towards 9060.00 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 9190.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the short-term target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After breaking 3180.1 to the upside, the Index may continue growing towards 3240.5. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 3180.1 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 3300.5. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the first target at 3100.6.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Week Ahead – COVID-19, Earnings, the Economic Calendar, and Trump in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 73 stats in focus in the week ending 17th July. In the week prior, just 30 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic data front plenty of stats for the markets to consider.

June industrial production and July NY Empire State Manufacturing figures are due out on Wednesday.

Expect the numbers to provide direction ahead of June retail sales and July Philly Manufacturing Index numbers on Thursday.

The weekly jobless claims figures will also provide riskier assets with direction on Thursday. Another decline will be needed to support the unbreakable optimism.

At the end of the week, the focus will then shift to prelim consumer sentiment figures for July.

Following the numbers from May and June, this week’s stats will need to continue to impress. Expect any disappointing numbers to also test the market’s optimistic outlook on the economic recovery…

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.54% to 96.652.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the early part of the week, July’s ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out.

Tuesday’s figures will influence ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.

Expect the ECB policy decision to have a material influence. The markets will be looking for the promise of more support, if not the delivery of more on the policy front.

Following news earlier in the month of disagreement amongst policymakers, it will be an interesting press conference…

Finalized inflation figures from member states and the Eurozone will likely have a muted impact.

Expect May’s industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone to also be brushed aside…

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.46% to $1.1300.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Tuesday, May’s manufacturing and industrial production and 3-month average GDP figures are due out.

Expect the GDP and manufacturing production figures to garner the most interest.

The focus will then shift to employment figures due out on Thursday. June’s claimant counts and May’s unemployment rate will likely have the greatest impact on the Pound.

We don’t expect May trade and June inflation figures due out on Tuesday and Wednesday to have any influence, however.

Away from the calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 will remain key drivers in the week.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 1.11% to $1.2622.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, but an important one.

On the data front, Manufacturing and Wholesale sales figures are due out on Wednesday and Friday.

Don’t expect too much influence from the May numbers, however.

The main event of the week is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. With the FED having thrown in the kitchen sink, is there anything more?

Crude oil prices have picked up and economic data has delivered a more optimistic outlook on demand.

A pause in the reopening of economies will be of concern, however. There are also rising tensions between the U.S and China to test market resilience.

On the crude oil price front, OPEC’s monthly report will also draw attention on Tuesday…

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.33% to C$1.3592 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead for the Aussie Dollar.

June business confidence and July consumer sentiment figures are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In case the Aussie needed more direction in the week, June employment figures will wrap up the week…

Another slide in employment and expect the Aussie Dollar to come under pressure. COVID-19 news from Australia and beyond will also influence in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.16% to $0.6950.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

2nd quarter inflation figures are due out on Thursday ahead of June’s business PMI on Friday.

While we would expect inflation figures to influence, the Business PMI should have a greater impact.

Away from the calendar, COVID-19 and geopolitics will provide direction throughout the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.66% to $0.6574.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Economic data is limited to finalized industrial production figures for May.  Don’t expect the numbers to have any impact on the Yen, however.

COVID-19, Geopolitics, and market sentiment towards the economic outlook remain key.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.54% to ¥106.93 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include June trade figures due out on Tuesday and industrial production and fixed asset investment figures on Thursday.

Of greater influence, however, will be 2nd quarter GDP numbers due out on Thursday.

These will be the 1st set of 2nd quarter GDP numbers for the markets to receive from a major economy. So expect plenty of influence.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.95% to CNY6.9994 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

Following last week’s optimism, news from the week was less so. Brexit will remain the key driver as we move through mid-July. An agreement on fisheries and a blueprint of a trade agreement will need to be in place by the end of the month. A lack of progress on either could test the Pound’s newfound support…

U.S Politics:

With the number of new COVID-19 cases on the rise across the U.S, Trump may need to take more steps to distract voters.

China is as good a distraction as any, particularly with corporate earnings season kicking off…

Over the weekend, the U.S President ruled out a phase 2 trade agreement…

The EU Recovery Fund

EU member states meet in the week to discuss the Recovery Fund. A failure for member states to agree on focusing on the most adversely affected member states would be a test for the EUR.

Corporate Earnings

The U.S banks are in focus this week, with the markets likely to be particularly interested in forward guidance.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo deliver on Tuesday, with Goldmans on Wednesday, and Bank of American and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.

We’ve also got the likes of United Health (Wed), Netflix (Thurs), and Delta Air Lines (Tues) rolling out results.

The Coronavirus:

Over the weekend, news of further spikes in new COVID-19 cases will test market risk appetite. Trends throughout the week will need monitoring as will any news of progress towards a vaccine.

Hong Kong closed schools last week, with the Australian government closing the Victoria-NSW border.  News from the U.S of some states planning to reverse reopening plans will also be negative for riskier assets…

From the market’s perspective, the 3 key considerations have been:

  1. Progress is made with COVID-19 treatment drugs and vaccines.
  2. No spikes in new cases as a result of the easing of lockdown measures.
  3. Governments continue to progress towards fully opening economies and borders.

For now, the first scenario is the only one that could offset the worst-case scenarios that are now being reported. Both scenarios ii) and iii) are now in question, which would diminish any hope of a sustained economic recovery.

At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 12,842,112. Monday to Saturday, the total number of new cases increased by 1,306,584. Over the same period in the previous week, the total number had risen by 1,339,869.

Monday through Saturday, the U.S reported 372,491 new cases to take the total to 3,355,646. This was up from the previous week’s 361,375. On Saturday 11th July, there were 70,096 new cases, the highest for the week.

For Germany, Italy, and Spain, there were 6,758 new cases Monday through Saturday. This took the total to 743,627. In the previous week, there had been 6,397 cases over the same period.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 9, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300 to the upside, EURUSD may continue growing towards 1.1380. Later, the market may correct to reach 1.1280 and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.1410.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2525 and finishing another ascending wave at 1.2626, GBPUSD is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the pair may expand this range up to 1.2646. However, if the price breaks 1.2600 to thttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/gbp-usdhe downside, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the first target at 1.2440.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing the descending impulse at 71.05, USDRUB is consolidating above this level. Possibly, thehttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/usd-rub pair may correct towards 71.67 and then form a new descending structure to break 71.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 70.10.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 107.40 to the downside; right now, it is still falling towards 106.99. Later, the market may correct to return to 107.40 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9383 to the downside, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9333. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to test 0.9383 from below and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 0.9320.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6971 to the upside, AUDUSD may choose an alternative scenario and form another ascending wave to reach 0.7017. Later, the market may start another decline towards 0.6972 and then resume growing with the target at 0.7023.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent is growing towards 43.90 and may later start a new correction to reach 42.50. After that, the instrument may resume moving upwards with the target at 45.02, at least.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After reaching 1800.00 and forming an upside continuation pattern around this level, Gold has broken it upwards to extend the wave up to 1817.80; right now, it is falling to test 1801.90 from above and may later return to 1810.10, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1780.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After breaking 9350.00 to the upside and expanding the range up to 9450.00, BTCUSD has returned to 9350.00 to test it from above. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9500.00 or even 9550.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3160.0. Possibly, today the air may expand the range up to 3200.5 and then down to 3120.5. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 3240.4; if to the downside – start a new correction with the target at 3050.5.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 7, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300, EUR/USD is consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction towards 1.1250; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 1.1380.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2490 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.2545; if to the downside – start another correction to reach 1.2435.

Изображение выглядит как монитор, экран, сидит, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling towards 71.11 and may later grow to reach 71.55, thus forming a new consolidation range between these levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 69.69; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend to reach 72.15.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, держит Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking 107.41, USDJPY is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may fall with the short-term target at 107.07 and then start another growth to return to 107.07 and test it from below. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, компьютер, часы, счетчик Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching its downside target at 0.9387, USDCHF is correcting towards 0.9425. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 0.9404, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9470; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 0.9330.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, стол, маленький, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the ascending wave at 0.6990; right now, it is moving downwards to break 0.6949. Later, the market may continue falling with the target at 0.6900.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is trading around 43.00. Today, the pair may expand the range up to 43.80 and then fall to reach 42.48. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 45.05.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1786.90, Gold is expected to fall to test 1777.00 from above. After that, the instrument may grow to break 1787.77 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1799.19 or even 1800.00. Later, the market may form a new descending wave to reach 1750.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 9126.00 and breaking it to the upside, BTCUSD has reached 9350.00; right now, it is falling towards 9245.00 and may later grow to reach 9300.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9550.00; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After breaking 3166.5 to the upside, the Index is consolidating above it. Possibly, today the asset may reach 3200.5 and then correct towards 3120.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 3240.5.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 2, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 1.1184, EUR/USD is growing towards 1.1287, thus forming a new consolidation range around 1.1240. After reaching 1.1287, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.1204.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, экран, маленький Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range around 1.2373 and breaking it upwards, GBP/USD continues growing to reach 1.2500. Today, the pair may reach it and then resume trading downwards to break 1.2408. Later, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2319.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is still trading downwards to reach 69.96. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to break 70.50 and then continue growing with the target at 72.00. However, if the price falls and breaks 69.90 to the downside, the market may continue moving inside the downtrend to reach 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, монитор, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The market may form a new descending structure with the first downside target at 106.80; if to the upside – resume trading upwards to reach 108.20 and then start a new decline with the above-mentioned target.

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the descending wave at 0.9444, USD/CHF is forming another consolidation range not far from the lows. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 0.9440, the market may continue the correction with the target at 0.9400; if to the upside at 0.9490 – resume trading upwards to reach 0.9540.

Изображение выглядит как счетчик, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD has formed the consolidation range around 0.6902. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 0.6971; if to the downside – resume trading downwards to reach 0.6783.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 41.70. Possibly, today the pair may trade upwards to reach 43.80 and then fall to return to 41.70. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 45.20.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, стол, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is back to consolidating around 1770.00. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1750.00, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1734.34; if to the upside at 1778.50 – resume trading upwards to reach 1795.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, зеленый, держит, играет Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 9280.00, BTC/USD is expected to start a new decline to break 9000.00. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. And that’s just a half of another descending wave.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, темный Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3076.0 without any particular direction. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 3150.5 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3076.0.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, цветной, стол, большой Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 1, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing another correctional structure at 1.1260, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.1215. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then form a new consolidation range around it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1170. After that, the instrument may correct to test 1.1215 from below and then form a new descending structure to reach 1.1144.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, телевидение, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2300 upwards, GBP/USD has completed another ascending wave at 1.2370, which may be considered as a correction. Today, the pair may consolidate around 1.2370. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1.2350, the market may resume trading downwards to break 1.2300 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2200.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, компьютер, экран, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After extending the ascending structure up to 71.31, USD/RUB is expected to correct towards 69.69. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to reach 71.81 and then start another decline with the target at 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, большой, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching another upside target at 108.15, USD/JPY is expected to fall towards 107.50. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 108.22, thus forming the third ascending wave within the correction.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, цветной, играет, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After forming another consolidation range around 0.9515 and breaking it to the downside, USD/CHF has reached 0.9460; right now, it is forming a new range above this level. Possibly, the pair may resume trading upwards to break 0.9540 and then continue growing within the uptrend with the target at 0.9660.

Изображение выглядит как компьютер, звезда

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.6832, AUD/USD has completed the ascending structure at 0.6900. Today, the pair may start a new decline to break 0.6850 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 0.6787.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, передний, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 40.70 within a Triangle pattern. Possibly, today the pair may test 40.70 from above, rebound from it, and then resume trading upwards to break 42.20. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 43.80. However, there might be another scenario, according to which the price may break 40.70 to the downside and then continue the correction to reach 37.70.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, стол

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1775.00, Gold has reached 1785.50. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 1775.50 and then start another growth with the target at 1791.55 or even 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, часы, счетчик

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is still consolidating around 9100.00. Possibly, today the pair may start another growth to reach 9280.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. Later, the market may correct towards 9200.00..

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After attempting to break 3076.0 to the upside, the Index is expected to continue growing towards 3145.5 or even 3233.3. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3075.5.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, большой, играет

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.