Stocks Surge Higher. Dollar Give Backs the Gains

 

Dollar Index is giving back the gains. Wedge promotes a further drop

USD/CAD goes under 1.33 again

GBP/USD aims 1.32

AUD/NZD tries to establish presence above 1.084

DAX breaks crucial resistance on 12800

S&P 500 close to the all-time highs

CAC breaks the neckline of the H&S pattern

EUR/USD breaks mid-term down trend line

USD/JPY tries to close the day above 106

Gold drops and tests the 1980 USD/oz support

USD/PLN breaks the lower line of the wedge

USD/CHF on the other hand, breaks the lower line of the flag

GBP/JPY tests the upper line of the sideways trend

Dollar Short at Nine-Year High

Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators such as hedge funds and CTA’s across forex, bonds and stocks up until last Tuesday, August 4. Appetite for risk during this period remained strong with dollar weakness and rising negative real yields feeding a rise in prices across global asset markets. The S&P 500 Index added 2.7% to reach a fresh cycle high while the dollar weakened further against a basket of major currencies. The yield on U.S. ten-year notes dropped 7 bp to 0.50%, thereby supporting a further fall in real yields to a fresh record low at -1.06%.

Continued dollar weakness, albeit at a slowing pace, helped boost the net-short against ten IMM currencies and the Dollar Index to a nine-year high at $29.5 billion. However, just like the previous five weeks the expanding dollar short position was almost solely driven by another rise in the euro net-long to a fresh record of 180,648 lots (€22.6 billion). The 15% increase occurred as the cross challenged and eventually later in the week retraced from €1.19.

Other noticeable changes were a rise in the Swiss franc net-long to 11,660 lots, the highest since March 2014 as well as an almost doubling of the Canadian dollar short to 23,195 lots.

Leveraged fund positions in bonds, stocks and VIX

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.

In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.

In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.

Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.

They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

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This article is provided by Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Pty. Ltd, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Surge in Euro Could Drive Index into 94.670

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against a basket of major currencies on Monday with the heavily-weighted Euro leading the way. The greenback is also under pressure against the British Pound and Canadian Dollars, while edging higher versus the safe-have Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.

At 09:26 GMT, September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 95.790, down 0.099 or -0.10%.

The U.S. Dollar is being pressured after EU summit chairman Charles Michel said a recovery fund to revive economies hit by the COVID-19 pandemic could contain 390 billion Euros in grants.

EU leaders made progress toward an agreement over the weekend in Brussels after three days of talks, but they remain at odds over how to carve up the proposed 750 billion Euros ($858.98 billion) recovery fund designed to help Europe cope with its deepest recession since World War Two.

Traders also said the index was being pressured by renewed demand for risk after an early session setback in U.S. stock markets. This move was being fueled by expectations of more stimulus from Europe and also the United States.

Daily September U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 95.720 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out the next main bottom at 95.570 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 97.810. This is highly unlikely but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 96.380 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 95.570 to 97.810. Its 50% level at 96.690 is resistance.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

We’re going to be watching trader reaction to last week’s low at 95.72. Holding this level could trigger a short-covering rally, but it won’t mean much until buyers can take out the nearest minor top at 96.380.

If overtaking 96.380 can create enough upside momentum then this could set off buy stops over 96.67, 96.69 and 96.960.

A sustained move under 95.720 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the main bottom at 95.570. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the March 9, 2020 bottom at 94.671.

Side Notes

Look for the movement in the Euro to dictate the price action in the September U.S. Dollar Index.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 16, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is falling towards 1.1385 and may later correct to reach 1.1416. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.1340.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading downwards to reach 1.2539 and may later correct towards 1.2591. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1.2454.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling to break 70.60. Possibly, today the pair may break this level and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.96. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to test 70.50 from below and then start a new decline with the target at 69.80.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the descending structure at 106.86; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 107.12 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 106.55.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 0.9444, USDCHF is consolidating around this level; this entire movement is considered as an upside continuation pattern. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9517.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling towards 0.6981 and may later grow to reach 0.0.7009. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6922.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent has broken 43.50 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range and grow with the short-term target at 45.00, After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 43.50 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating above 1804.00. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach 1819.55. Later, the market may start another correction with the target at 1752.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 9150.00, BTCUSD is correcting towards 9210.00. After that, the instrument may resume falling to break 9000.00 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After completing the ascending wave at 3240.5, the S&P 500 Index is falling towards 3200.0. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 3220.4 and then start a new decline to break 3184.5. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 3111.1.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 15, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has extended the wave up to 1.1420. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1.1373 and then start another growth to reach 1.1390, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1330.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, передний, освещенный Автоматически созданное описание

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.2480, GBPUSD is correcting upwards with the target at 1.2588. Later, the market may start a new decline to reach the short-term target at 1.2454.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, компьютер, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating below 71.23. Today, the pair may fall to break 70.55 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.90. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 71.27.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, большой, зеленый, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 107.20. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 107.00 and then start another growth to reach 107.50. Later, the market may resume falling towards 106.94 or even deeper, 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, освещенный, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9400. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 0.9415, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9440 or even higher, 0.9550; if to the downside at 0.9388 – form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9366.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, компьютер, ноутбук, большой Автоматически созданное описание

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.7017, AUDUSD is expected to fall towards 0.6967 and then grow to reach 0.6991, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6924.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, экран, играет, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is moving not far from the upside border of the range. Possibly, the pair may break 43.30 and then continue moving upwards with the target at 45.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to return to 43.30 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, легкий, темный, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1805.00, Gold is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1791.33 or even 1777.17; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 1819.55.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, часы, легкий Автоматически созданное описание

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 9260.00 and testing it from below, BTCUSD is expected to fall to break 9160.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 9000.00 or even 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, телевидение, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After the ascending structure towards 3185.0 and a gap up this morning, the S&P 500 Index is expected to reach 3240.4 and then fall to return to 3185.0, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction with the target at 3111.1; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure towards 3300.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 13, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.1255, EURUSD is moving upwards to reach 1.1338. Possibly, the pair may reach it and then form a new descending structure towards 1.1300. After that, the instrument may start another growth to reach 1.1380 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1225.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.2694 and then fall towards 1.2640. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2712 and then start a new decline with the target at 1.2585.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still falling towards 70.20. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 70.90 and then start a new decline with the first target at 69.50.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the ascending wave at 106.93; right now, it is falling. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 106.55 and then start another correction to the upside with the first target at 107.17.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.9399, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9377. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.9440 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to return to 0.9399.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6960 to the upside, AUDUSD is still growing and may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.6994. Later, the market may start a new decline towards 0.6965 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.7000.

AUDUSD

BRENT

After finishing the correction at 41.41, Brent has completed another ascending impulse towards 43.50. Today, the asset may form a new descending structure towards 42.50 and then grow to break 43.50. After that, the instrument may continue moving upwards with the short-term target at 44.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After falling and reaching 1794.00, Gold is correcting towards 1805.50. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1792.50 and then start another correction to return to 1805.50.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9260.00. Today, the pair may fall towards 9060.00 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 9190.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the short-term target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After breaking 3180.1 to the upside, the Index may continue growing towards 3240.5. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 3180.1 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 3300.5. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the first target at 3100.6.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Week Ahead – COVID-19, Earnings, the Economic Calendar, and Trump in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 73 stats in focus in the week ending 17th July. In the week prior, just 30 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic data front plenty of stats for the markets to consider.

June industrial production and July NY Empire State Manufacturing figures are due out on Wednesday.

Expect the numbers to provide direction ahead of June retail sales and July Philly Manufacturing Index numbers on Thursday.

The weekly jobless claims figures will also provide riskier assets with direction on Thursday. Another decline will be needed to support the unbreakable optimism.

At the end of the week, the focus will then shift to prelim consumer sentiment figures for July.

Following the numbers from May and June, this week’s stats will need to continue to impress. Expect any disappointing numbers to also test the market’s optimistic outlook on the economic recovery…

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.54% to 96.652.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the early part of the week, July’s ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone are due out.

Tuesday’s figures will influence ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.

Expect the ECB policy decision to have a material influence. The markets will be looking for the promise of more support, if not the delivery of more on the policy front.

Following news earlier in the month of disagreement amongst policymakers, it will be an interesting press conference…

Finalized inflation figures from member states and the Eurozone will likely have a muted impact.

Expect May’s industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone to also be brushed aside…

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.46% to $1.1300.

For the Pound:

It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Tuesday, May’s manufacturing and industrial production and 3-month average GDP figures are due out.

Expect the GDP and manufacturing production figures to garner the most interest.

The focus will then shift to employment figures due out on Thursday. June’s claimant counts and May’s unemployment rate will likely have the greatest impact on the Pound.

We don’t expect May trade and June inflation figures due out on Tuesday and Wednesday to have any influence, however.

Away from the calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 will remain key drivers in the week.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 1.11% to $1.2622.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, but an important one.

On the data front, Manufacturing and Wholesale sales figures are due out on Wednesday and Friday.

Don’t expect too much influence from the May numbers, however.

The main event of the week is the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. With the FED having thrown in the kitchen sink, is there anything more?

Crude oil prices have picked up and economic data has delivered a more optimistic outlook on demand.

A pause in the reopening of economies will be of concern, however. There are also rising tensions between the U.S and China to test market resilience.

On the crude oil price front, OPEC’s monthly report will also draw attention on Tuesday…

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.33% to C$1.3592 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead for the Aussie Dollar.

June business confidence and July consumer sentiment figures are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In case the Aussie needed more direction in the week, June employment figures will wrap up the week…

Another slide in employment and expect the Aussie Dollar to come under pressure. COVID-19 news from Australia and beyond will also influence in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.16% to $0.6950.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

2nd quarter inflation figures are due out on Thursday ahead of June’s business PMI on Friday.

While we would expect inflation figures to influence, the Business PMI should have a greater impact.

Away from the calendar, COVID-19 and geopolitics will provide direction throughout the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.66% to $0.6574.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Economic data is limited to finalized industrial production figures for May.  Don’t expect the numbers to have any impact on the Yen, however.

COVID-19, Geopolitics, and market sentiment towards the economic outlook remain key.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.54% to ¥106.93 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Key stats include June trade figures due out on Tuesday and industrial production and fixed asset investment figures on Thursday.

Of greater influence, however, will be 2nd quarter GDP numbers due out on Thursday.

These will be the 1st set of 2nd quarter GDP numbers for the markets to receive from a major economy. So expect plenty of influence.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up 0.95% to CNY6.9994 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

UK Politics:

Following last week’s optimism, news from the week was less so. Brexit will remain the key driver as we move through mid-July. An agreement on fisheries and a blueprint of a trade agreement will need to be in place by the end of the month. A lack of progress on either could test the Pound’s newfound support…

U.S Politics:

With the number of new COVID-19 cases on the rise across the U.S, Trump may need to take more steps to distract voters.

China is as good a distraction as any, particularly with corporate earnings season kicking off…

Over the weekend, the U.S President ruled out a phase 2 trade agreement…

The EU Recovery Fund

EU member states meet in the week to discuss the Recovery Fund. A failure for member states to agree on focusing on the most adversely affected member states would be a test for the EUR.

Corporate Earnings

The U.S banks are in focus this week, with the markets likely to be particularly interested in forward guidance.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo deliver on Tuesday, with Goldmans on Wednesday, and Bank of American and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.

We’ve also got the likes of United Health (Wed), Netflix (Thurs), and Delta Air Lines (Tues) rolling out results.

The Coronavirus:

Over the weekend, news of further spikes in new COVID-19 cases will test market risk appetite. Trends throughout the week will need monitoring as will any news of progress towards a vaccine.

Hong Kong closed schools last week, with the Australian government closing the Victoria-NSW border.  News from the U.S of some states planning to reverse reopening plans will also be negative for riskier assets…

From the market’s perspective, the 3 key considerations have been:

  1. Progress is made with COVID-19 treatment drugs and vaccines.
  2. No spikes in new cases as a result of the easing of lockdown measures.
  3. Governments continue to progress towards fully opening economies and borders.

For now, the first scenario is the only one that could offset the worst-case scenarios that are now being reported. Both scenarios ii) and iii) are now in question, which would diminish any hope of a sustained economic recovery.

At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 12,842,112. Monday to Saturday, the total number of new cases increased by 1,306,584. Over the same period in the previous week, the total number had risen by 1,339,869.

Monday through Saturday, the U.S reported 372,491 new cases to take the total to 3,355,646. This was up from the previous week’s 361,375. On Saturday 11th July, there were 70,096 new cases, the highest for the week.

For Germany, Italy, and Spain, there were 6,758 new cases Monday through Saturday. This took the total to 743,627. In the previous week, there had been 6,397 cases over the same period.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 9, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300 to the upside, EURUSD may continue growing towards 1.1380. Later, the market may correct to reach 1.1280 and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.1410.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2525 and finishing another ascending wave at 1.2626, GBPUSD is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the pair may expand this range up to 1.2646. However, if the price breaks 1.2600 to thttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/gbp-usdhe downside, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the first target at 1.2440.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing the descending impulse at 71.05, USDRUB is consolidating above this level. Possibly, thehttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/usd-rub pair may correct towards 71.67 and then form a new descending structure to break 71.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 70.10.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 107.40 to the downside; right now, it is still falling towards 106.99. Later, the market may correct to return to 107.40 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9383 to the downside, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9333. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to test 0.9383 from below and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 0.9320.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6971 to the upside, AUDUSD may choose an alternative scenario and form another ascending wave to reach 0.7017. Later, the market may start another decline towards 0.6972 and then resume growing with the target at 0.7023.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent is growing towards 43.90 and may later start a new correction to reach 42.50. After that, the instrument may resume moving upwards with the target at 45.02, at least.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After reaching 1800.00 and forming an upside continuation pattern around this level, Gold has broken it upwards to extend the wave up to 1817.80; right now, it is falling to test 1801.90 from above and may later return to 1810.10, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1780.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After breaking 9350.00 to the upside and expanding the range up to 9450.00, BTCUSD has returned to 9350.00 to test it from above. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9500.00 or even 9550.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3160.0. Possibly, today the air may expand the range up to 3200.5 and then down to 3120.5. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 3240.4; if to the downside – start a new correction with the target at 3050.5.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 7, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300, EUR/USD is consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction towards 1.1250; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 1.1380.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2490 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.2545; if to the downside – start another correction to reach 1.2435.

Изображение выглядит как монитор, экран, сидит, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling towards 71.11 and may later grow to reach 71.55, thus forming a new consolidation range between these levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 69.69; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend to reach 72.15.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, держит Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking 107.41, USDJPY is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may fall with the short-term target at 107.07 and then start another growth to return to 107.07 and test it from below. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, компьютер, часы, счетчик Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching its downside target at 0.9387, USDCHF is correcting towards 0.9425. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 0.9404, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9470; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 0.9330.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, стол, маленький, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the ascending wave at 0.6990; right now, it is moving downwards to break 0.6949. Later, the market may continue falling with the target at 0.6900.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is trading around 43.00. Today, the pair may expand the range up to 43.80 and then fall to reach 42.48. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 45.05.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1786.90, Gold is expected to fall to test 1777.00 from above. After that, the instrument may grow to break 1787.77 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1799.19 or even 1800.00. Later, the market may form a new descending wave to reach 1750.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 9126.00 and breaking it to the upside, BTCUSD has reached 9350.00; right now, it is falling towards 9245.00 and may later grow to reach 9300.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9550.00; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After breaking 3166.5 to the upside, the Index is consolidating above it. Possibly, today the asset may reach 3200.5 and then correct towards 3120.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 3240.5.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 2, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 1.1184, EUR/USD is growing towards 1.1287, thus forming a new consolidation range around 1.1240. After reaching 1.1287, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.1204.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, экран, маленький Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range around 1.2373 and breaking it upwards, GBP/USD continues growing to reach 1.2500. Today, the pair may reach it and then resume trading downwards to break 1.2408. Later, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2319.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is still trading downwards to reach 69.96. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to break 70.50 and then continue growing with the target at 72.00. However, if the price falls and breaks 69.90 to the downside, the market may continue moving inside the downtrend to reach 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, монитор, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The market may form a new descending structure with the first downside target at 106.80; if to the upside – resume trading upwards to reach 108.20 and then start a new decline with the above-mentioned target.

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the descending wave at 0.9444, USD/CHF is forming another consolidation range not far from the lows. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 0.9440, the market may continue the correction with the target at 0.9400; if to the upside at 0.9490 – resume trading upwards to reach 0.9540.

Изображение выглядит как счетчик, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD has formed the consolidation range around 0.6902. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 0.6971; if to the downside – resume trading downwards to reach 0.6783.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 41.70. Possibly, today the pair may trade upwards to reach 43.80 and then fall to return to 41.70. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 45.20.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, стол, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is back to consolidating around 1770.00. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1750.00, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1734.34; if to the upside at 1778.50 – resume trading upwards to reach 1795.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, зеленый, держит, играет Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 9280.00, BTC/USD is expected to start a new decline to break 9000.00. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. And that’s just a half of another descending wave.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, темный Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3076.0 without any particular direction. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 3150.5 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3076.0.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, цветной, стол, большой Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 1, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing another correctional structure at 1.1260, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.1215. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then form a new consolidation range around it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1170. After that, the instrument may correct to test 1.1215 from below and then form a new descending structure to reach 1.1144.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, телевидение, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2300 upwards, GBP/USD has completed another ascending wave at 1.2370, which may be considered as a correction. Today, the pair may consolidate around 1.2370. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1.2350, the market may resume trading downwards to break 1.2300 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2200.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, компьютер, экран, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After extending the ascending structure up to 71.31, USD/RUB is expected to correct towards 69.69. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to reach 71.81 and then start another decline with the target at 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, большой, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching another upside target at 108.15, USD/JPY is expected to fall towards 107.50. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 108.22, thus forming the third ascending wave within the correction.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, цветной, играет, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After forming another consolidation range around 0.9515 and breaking it to the downside, USD/CHF has reached 0.9460; right now, it is forming a new range above this level. Possibly, the pair may resume trading upwards to break 0.9540 and then continue growing within the uptrend with the target at 0.9660.

Изображение выглядит как компьютер, звезда

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.6832, AUD/USD has completed the ascending structure at 0.6900. Today, the pair may start a new decline to break 0.6850 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 0.6787.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, передний, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 40.70 within a Triangle pattern. Possibly, today the pair may test 40.70 from above, rebound from it, and then resume trading upwards to break 42.20. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 43.80. However, there might be another scenario, according to which the price may break 40.70 to the downside and then continue the correction to reach 37.70.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, стол

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1775.00, Gold has reached 1785.50. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 1775.50 and then start another growth with the target at 1791.55 or even 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, часы, счетчик

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is still consolidating around 9100.00. Possibly, today the pair may start another growth to reach 9280.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. Later, the market may correct towards 9200.00..

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After attempting to break 3076.0 to the upside, the Index is expected to continue growing towards 3145.5 or even 3233.3. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3075.5.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, большой, играет

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Trade Through 97.700 Changes the Main Trend to Up

The U.S. Dollar is trading nearly flat against a basket of major currencies early Friday as investors continue to assess risk sentiment. Despite two solid days of gains, the index is trading lower for the week, but still in a position to change the main trend to up.

The primary driver of the rapid turnaround in the Dollar Index since Wednesday has been a possible shift in risk sentiment. The catalysts behind the volatile price action are concerns that the increasing number of coronavirus cases around the world and especially the United States could slow down the pace of the economic recovery.

At 07:48 GMT, September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 97.425, up 0.037 or +0.04%.

As far as the components of the index are concerned, the U.S. Dollar is losing ground to the Euro, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and the Japanese Yen, while posting a slight gain versus the British Pound.

Liquidity is one of the reasons why investors are buying the U.S. Dollar. Investors have been betting heavily on the stock market amid expectations of a recovery in the global economy, so any sharp breaks in equities will raise liquidity issues. We’ve seen since March that during times of stock market uncertainty, investors have been treating the dollar as a popular safe-haven asset.

Daily September U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 97.700 will change the main trend to up, while a move through 95.570 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through the new minor bottom at 96.320 will indicate renewed selling pressure after a two-day counter-trend rally.

The minor range is 95.570 to 97.700. Its 50% level at 96.635 is support. This stopped the selling earlier in the week.

The short-term range is 99.885 to 95.570. Its retracement zone at 97.730 to 98.240 is the primary upside target. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the U.S. Dollar Index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

There are two levels in focus on Friday. The first is last week’s close at 97.580. A close over this level will form a weekly closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week rally.

The second important level to watch is 97.700. Taking out this level will change the main trend to up on the daily chart.

Traders have to be careful buying strength on a breakout because of the potential resistance zone at 97.730 to 98.240. The market may have to grind through this zone before breaking out above 98.240. This could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target coming in at 99.760.

If sellers continue to defend the downtrend at 97.700 then prices could retrace back to the minor 50% level or pivot at 96.635.

Side Notes

The price action in the September U.S. Dollar Index is being driven by risk sentiment and liquidity needs. Another plunge in global equity markets could send the index soaring, first through 97.700 then 98.240.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 25, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EUR/USD continues falling with the predicted target at 1.1181. After that, the instrument may correct towards 1.1244 and then may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1144.

Изображение выглядит как телевидение, монитор, сидит, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading downwards with the predicted target at 1.2280. Later, the market may start another correction towards 1.2411 and then resume falling to reach 1.2277.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, сидит, черный, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 69.60 and then fall towards 69.25. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 70.00 and then start a new correction.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, черный, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the ascending wave at 107.25 without any corrections, USD/JPY is consolidating around 107.15. Possibly, today the pair may continue growing to reach 107.88 and then start another correction to return to 107.25. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 108.20.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, компьютер, играет, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the upside target at 0.9475, USD/CHF is consolidating around this level. Today, the pair may break this range to the upside and reach 0.9515. Later, the market may correct to return to 0.9475 and then trading upwards with the first target at 0.9530.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, монитор, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD is falling towards 0.6818. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to reach 0.6895 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6800.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, сидит, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT Oil

Brent has completed the descending wave at 40.00; right now, it is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the pair may grow towards 42.58 and then fall to reach 41.20, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing towards 45.00; if to the downside – continue the descending correction with the target at 36.70.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, сидит, ноутбук, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling towards 1752.00. Later, the market may grow to reach 1765.00 and then fall towards 1750.00. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to return to 1765.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, белый, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is falling; it has already broken 9240.00. Possibly, the pair may continue forming the third descending wave with the target at 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как черный, сидит, экран, висит

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is falling; it has already broken 3060.0. Possibly, today the pair may form a continuation pattern below this level. The short-term target is at 2960.5. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure towards 3050.5 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 2955.5.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, черный, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 24, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1280 to the upside and then reaching 1.1345, EUR/USD has finished the descending impulse at 1.1300 along with the correction towards 1.1325. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1260 and then resume continue trading upwards with the target at 1.1350.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, экран, телевидение

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After expanding the consolidation range up to 1.2540, GBP/USD is trading downwards to reach 1.2420. After that, the instrument may start another growth towards 1.2482, thus forming another consolidation range between the two latter levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.2277.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, компьютер, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is still falling towards 68.40. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 69.20 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 67.80.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, легкий, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the descending wave at 106.06, USD/JPY has completed the ascending impulse towards 106.55; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may continue growing to reach 106.90 and then fall towards 106.50. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 107.25.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, легкий, компьютер, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the downside target at 0.9420, USD/CHF has completed the ascending impulse towards 0.9453 along with the correction at 0.9435, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing towards 0.9550; if to the downside – form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9419.

Изображение выглядит как объект, сидит, компьютер, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.6975, AUD/USD has finished the descending impulse towards 0.6923 along with the correction at 0.6960, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 0.7022; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6800.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, легкий, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent has completed the ascending wave towards 43.90; right now, it is falling to reach 41.37. Later, the market may start another growth towards 42.60 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 40.30.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, сидит, компьютер, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1763.00 to the upside, Gold is expected to continue growing towards 1776.20. Later, the market may fall to return to 1763.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, компьютер, белый

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9600.00. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 9500.00 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 9850.00. After that, the instrument may resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 9500.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, экран, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3114.0. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 3165.5 and then fall to return to 3114.0. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 2958.5; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 3233.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, телевидение, монитор, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Mid-week Technical Outlook: G10 Currencies Gain as Dollar Stumbles

The mighty Dollar has weakened against every single G10 currency this week after positive data from Europe revived hopes for global economic recovery and boosted appetite for riskier assets.

As investors refocused their attention towards stock markets and riskier currencies, buying sentiment towards the Dollar dropped. The Dollar Index (DXY) which measures the value of the Greenback relative to a basket of foreign currencies, extended losses yesterday with prices sinking as low as 96.32.

In regards to the technical picture, the DXY remains in a downtrend on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. A solid breakdown and daily close below 96.00 may open a path back towards 94.70 in the medium term.

Alternatively, a rebound back towards 97.80 could be on the cards if a daily breakout above 97.15 is achieved.

USDSEK breaks below 9.3050

The Swedish Krona has appreciated over 2% against the Dollar this week with prices back below 9.3050 on the charts.

Sustained weakness below 9.3050 may send the USDSEK towards 9.1430. Lagging indicators such as the MACD and 20 Simple Moving average points to further downside if 9.1430 is breached.

More upside for the AUDUSD?

The AUDUSD is in the process of breaking out above the 0.7000 resistance level. Once this move is confirmed, prices are seen rising towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 in the short to medium term. If 0.7000 proves to be reliable resistance, prices may slip back towards 0.6850.

GBPUSD hovers around 1.2500

Who would have thought that the Pound would stage a sharp rebound after the taking a beating last week? Given how the primary driver behind the GBPUSD’s rebound is based around Dollar weakness, the GBPUSD has scope to sink lower. If 1.2500 proves to be a strong resistance level, the currency pair may descend back towards 1.2340. On the other hand, an intraday breakout above 1.2550 may trigger a jump towards 1.2650 and 1.2700, respectively.

USDCHF approaches 0.9400

It looks like the USDCHF is gearing for a steep decline on the daily charts. Prices are trading comfortably below the 20 Simple Moving Average while the MACD also trades to the downside. A solid daily close below 0.9400 may signal a move lower towards 0.9315.

USDJPY bearish trend confirmed

The solid breakdown and daily close below 107.00 have confirmed the bearish trend on the USDJPY. Expect the 107.00 to become a dynamic resistance that encourages a decline towards 105.90 and 105.00, respectively.

USDCAD balances above 1.3500

Expect the USDCAD to stage a modest rebound towards 1.3600 as bullish investors exploit the 200 Simple Moving Average around the 1.3500 support. Prices are likely to range in the short term until a fresh directional catalyst is brought into the picture. If prices end conquering the 1.3500 support level, the next key point of interest will be around 1.3300.

Alternatively, an intraday breakout above 1.3630 could open a path back towards 1.3730.

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Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 23, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1.1255, EUR/USD is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.1310 and then fall to break 1.1200. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1100.

EURUSD

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1.2500, GBP/USD is consolidating below this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside to 1.2500, the market may continue the correction towards 1.2545; if to the downside at 1.2440 – form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2380.

GBPUSD

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is falling towards 69.01. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 69.49 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 68.40.

USDRUB

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USD/JPY has completed the ascending structure at 107.20. Today, the pair may fall towards 106.95 and then start another growth to reach 107.25, thus forming a new consolidation range. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and resume trading upwards with the target at 108.20.

USDJPY

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USD/CHF is still correcting towards 0.9450. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to break 0.9500 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9550.

USDCHF

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.6915, AUD/USD is expected to consolidate around it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 0.6780; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6975.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent continues forming the ascending wave towards 43.43. Later, the market may start a new correction towards with the first target at 41.65 and then resume growing to reach 42.50.

BRENT

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 1762.50, Gold has completed the descending impulse towards 1747.50, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may correct to reach 1735.65; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 1800.00.

GOLD

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 9700.0, BTC/USD is expected to start a new decline to break 9255.00 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 8800.00

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After returning to 3115.5, the Index is still consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 3060.5, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 2958.6; if to the upside at 3150.0 – form one more ascending structure with the target at 3235.5.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Markets Finding it Difficult to Rebuild Bullish Momentum

Asia Pacific equities were mixed, though, of note, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Indian markets rose. European bourses are down small, and US stocks have turned lower as well. Bond markets firm, though and peripheral bonds are outperforming after the results of the ECB’s TLTRO operation. The US 10-year yield is hovering around 71 bp.

The dollar has a firmer bias. The currency market showed little reaction to the Swiss National Bank and Norway’s Norges Bank leaving policy unchanged, while sterling is around 0.5% lower ahead of the Bank of England meeting outcome. Emerging market currencies are firm.

The South Korean won recouped most of yesterday’s losses, and the Indian rupee and Indian bonds shrugged off Fitch’s decision to cut its outlook to negative from stable (BBB-). Gold has edged up but is flat on the week, and oil prices are recovering from yesterday’s decline. July WTI is near $38.40, putting it up about $2 on the week.

Asia Pacific

There is too much being made of the fact that China did not appeal the WTO decision that it is not automatically a market economy. On procedural grounds, we have to recognize that the appellate process has been eviscerated by the US, blocking the appointment of new judges. On substantive grounds, nothing changes. Europe and the US act as if China is not a market economy, which means it is easier to take anti-dumping action against it.

The US tariffs, mostly still in place under the two-year Phase 1 agreement, seem to make China’s market status a moot point. While Europe has not erected new tariff barriers, it is tightening its direct investment rules, making it more difficult for (Chinese) state-owned businesses. Meanwhile, US officials have indicated they will change their WTO tariff schedule. The real take away is that in the new Cold War will be waged on many fronts, including the multilateral institutions.

Some link the demand for yen that saw the dollar fall to JPY106.70 to approach last week’s lows in early Tokyo to the news that Softbank may repatriate the proceeds from its sale of 2/3 of its holding in T-Mobile (~$20 bln). Separately, the Nikkei reported that the Japanese government may lift its economic assessment that will be issued tomorrow.

Australia’s jobs data was worse than expected. The country lost almost three times more jobs than economists projected. Employment fell by nearly 228k jobs in May. It has lost a revised 607k jobs in April. The unemployment rate was revised to 6.4% in April from 6.2% and rose to 7.1% in May. The participation rate fell to 62.9% from 63.6%. The job losses were concentrated among part-time positions (~-138k), but the 89k loss of full-time positions was greater than the total job loss economists forecast. Separately, New Zealand reported Q1 GDP contracted by 1.6% compared with forecasts of a 1% decline.

It is the seventh session that the dollar has not traded above JPY108, and today it is struggling to sustain upticks above JPY107.00. Below the JPY106.70 session low are the one-month lows set last week a little under JPY106.60. However, stronger support is not seen until closer to JPY106.00. The Australian dollar recovered from the initial selling that took it to about $0.6840.

The week’s low, seen Monday near $0.6775, and the 20-day moving average is around $0.6825 today. Resistance is seen ahead of $0.6925, where a A$530 mln option is set to expire. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate a little above the bank models, but the greenback is softer for a third consecutive session. Hong Kong Monetary Authority continues to intervene to support the dollar at the lower end of the band. Still, the smaller amount may be among the first signs that pressure is easing following the recent IPOs.

Europe

The Bank of England is expected to keep its base rate at 10 bp, but increase the amount of bonds it is buying. While two dissents last month favored a GBP100 bln increase, many expect a larger amount to be agreed upon shortly. Note that the earlier this week, the Bank of Japan boosted the zero-rate loans it will make to corporations from JPY75 trillion to JPY110 trillion. The Federal Reserve announced the launching of the Main Street lending facility for small and medium-sized businesses, and its corporate bond-buying program would include individual issues (not just ETFs) according to a new index it created. And then there is the ECB.

The ECB allotted 1.31 trillion euros in its three-year targeted lending program. The three-year loans will be at a rate of minus 100 bp if certain lending targets are achieved. The loans can also be repaid after one year. Banks rolled previous loans into this new generous facility, but there was net new borrowing of 548.5 bln euros, which was a bit more than expected (~400 bln). The ECB’s balance sheet will rise by this net figure.

The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate at minus 75 bp and underscored that its main tool to counter the franc’s strength will be intervention. The euro found support near CHF1.0660, just above the low for the month near CHF1.0650 seen last week. Norway’s Norges Bank also did not change policy and indicated that it anticipated neither asset purchases nor negative rates. However, the forward guidance it provided implies no change in rates for two years. Separately, recall that the central bank sells krone every day. Here in June, it sells NOK2.3 bln a day after NOK2.1 bln a day in May. The krone rallied after the central bank announcement.

The euro is trading in a 15-tick range on either side of $1.1245, where a 640 mln euro option expires today. Another option for a little more than 710 mln euros is struck at $1.1260 and also expires today. The narrowing peripheral bond premium over Germany coincides with a firmer euro. Yesterday’s high was a little below $1.13, and that may be sufficient to cap the single currency today. Sterling is slipping through $1.25 ahead of the outcome of the BOE meeting.

The week’s low was set Monday near $1.2455, but then it was above the 20-day moving average, which now is near $1.25, which is also the (50%) retracement objective of the rally since May 25. The next retracement is near $1.2415, but we suspect sterling will stabilize after the BOE meeting.

America

The US formally announced it was withdrawing from negotiations on efforts to coordinate a digital tax. It is important because it is a front in the US-Europe trade confrontation that is simmering below the surface. It erupted recently as part of the US decision to withdraw troops from Germany. The geopolitical signal was exaggerated. The US troops act as a tripwire, and the precise number is not so important. The importance of the move lies in how it was done (unilaterally) and the reasons (German not respecting its commitment to boost NATO spending, the gas pipeline from Russia, and unspecified German trade practices).

Most countries considering a digital tax are in Europe, but there are a few, including India, which broadened theirs a couple months ago, Indonesia, and Brazil. The US appears to be blocking efforts to coordinate under the OECD. Countries want to tax internet companies based on the sales within their borders and have a minimum global tax to minimize incentives for tax arbitrage.

While Canada and Mexico’s calendars are light, the US reports the June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, which is expected to rise for the second consecutive month, and the weekly jobless claims that will likely continue to decline from still high levels. May’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators is expected to have jumped by around 2.4%. During the session, OPEC will report is compliance assessment, and it should improve now that Iraq seems to be adhering to the agreement. Lastly, we note that as anticipated, Brazil delivered a 75 bp rate cut yesterday and seemed to suggest that there was still room for another small cut. Talks between Argentina and its creditors stalled again.

The US dollar continues to trade within Tuesday’s range against the Canadian dollar (~CAD1.3505-CAD1.3625). The week’s high was set on Monday, near CAD1.3685. The intraday technicals suggest the greenback’s upside may be favored in the early North American activity. Meanwhile, the US dollar is near the middle of this week’s range against the Mexican peso (~MXN21.8950-MXN22.75), and that range is likely to hold.

Lastly, turning to the S&P 500, we note that the gap created by the lower opening a week ago remains unfilled and casts a pall over the market. The gap extends to 3181.50. Also adding to the technical caution is the fact that the five-day moving average has slipped below the 20-day moving average for the first time since early April, illustrating the corrective/consolidative phase it has entered.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was written by Marc Chandler, MarctoMarket.

Week Ahead – Market Recovery Under Threat?

The New Normal

This could be a sign of the fragility that remains in the markets but then, the NASDAQ hit new record highs in each of the prior four days and breached 10,000 for the first time ever. This comes before the end of what could be the worst quarter in a century for the economy. Incredible.

Speculation around new waves of coronavirus cases is going nowhere any time soon, as countries look to reopen their economies and save businesses and jobs. But next week also brings a plethora of interest rate decisions as well which means more rate cuts and more asset purchases. In other words, more fuel for the fire. The disconnect between the markets and the global economy isn’t going to improve any time soon.

Key Economic Releases and Events

Monday 15th June

Time (UK) Country Indicator Name Period
00:01 United Kingdom House Price Rightmove MM May
03:00 China (Mainland) Urban Investment (YTD)YY May
03:00 China (Mainland) Industrial Output YY May
03:00 China (Mainland) Retail Sales YY May
03:30 Singapore Unemployment Rate Final SA Q1
Indonesia Trade Balance (Bln of $) May

Tuesday 16th June

07:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Unem Chng May
07:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Employment Change Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) Apr
09:30 Hong Kong Unemployment Rate May
10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun
13:30 United States Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM May
13:30 United States Retail Sales MM May
13:30 United States Retail Ex Gas/Autos May
14:00 Russia Industrial Output May
14:15 United States Industrial Production MM May
14:15 United States Capacity Utilization SA May
14:15 United States Industrial Production YoY May
15:00 United States Business Inventories MM Apr
21:30 United States API weekly crude stocks 8 Jun, w/e
Japan JP BOJ Rate Decision 16 Jun

Wednesday 17th June

00:50 Japan Trade Balance Total Yen May
01:30 Singapore Non-Oil Exports MM May
01:30 Singapore Non-Oil Exports YY May
07:00 United Kingdom Core CPI YY May
07:00 United Kingdom CPI YY May
08:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate May
08:30 Sweden Total Employment May
10:00 Euro Zone Construction Output MM Apr
10:00 Euro Zone HICP Final MM May
10:00 Euro Zone HICP Final YY May
12:00 South Africa Retail Sales YY Mar
13:30 United States Building Permits: Number May
13:30 United States Housing Starts Number May
13:30 Canada CPI Inflation MM May
13:30 Canada CPI Inflation YY May
14:00 Russia GDP YY Quarterly Revised Q4
15:30 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 12 Jun, w/e
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ, SA Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY, SA Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Exp Based QQ, SA Q1

Thursday 18th June

02:30 Australia Employment May
02:30 Australia Full Time Employment May
02:30 Australia Participation Rate May
02:30 Australia Unemployment Rate May
08:30 Switzerland SNB Policy Rate Q2
09:00 Norway Key Policy Rate 18 Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE Bank Rate Jun
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Prog Jun
12:00 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Gilts Jun
12:00 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Corp Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Hike Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Unchanged Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Cut Jun
13:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 8 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Continued Jobless Claims 1 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Philly Fed Business Indx Jun
14:00 Russia Cbank Wkly Reserves 8 Jun, w/e
15:00 United States Leading Index Chg MM May
Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Jun
Indonesia Deposit Facility Rate Jun
Indonesia Lending Facility Rate Jun

Friday 19th June

00:30 Japan CPI, Core Nationwide YY May
00:30 Japan CPI, Overall Nationwide May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales MM May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales YY May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY May
11:30 Russia Central bank key rate Jun
13:30 Canada Retail Sales MM Apr
13:30 Canada Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Apr
Russia GDP YY Monthly May
Russia Retail Sales YY May
Russia Unemployment Rate May
Russia Real Wages YY Apr

Country

US

It seems a second wave of the coronavirus is hitting the US and could very well derail a lot of the reopening momentum that was taking place.  As states reopen and Americans return to pre-pandemic behavior, it is expected that a rise in new coronavirus cases would occur.

The White House is convinced they have yet to see any relationship between reopening and increased cases.  If hospitalizations continue to increase, you could see many individuals decide to remain a part of the stay-at-home economy.  If the virus spread intensifies, restrictions will be tightened and that will put a damper on the economic recovery prospects.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will follow his downbeat FOMC presser with his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee.  With little time between events, it is unlikely for Powell to deviate from Wednesday’s rate decision.  Traders will also pay close attention to the release of US retail sales, which is expected to show a rebound from the record low seen in April.

US Politics

Economic jitters and virus concerns will likely push the Trump administration into supporting a second round of stimulus payments for Americans.  Coronavirus relief talks were not supposed to happen until late July, but that should change given the recent jump in cases throughout the country.

On Friday, President Trump returns to the campaign trail in Oklahoma, his first live rally since March.

Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate.  Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June.  Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.

UK

The UK experienced its sharpest contraction on record in April, the first full month of the lockdown. The economy contracted by 20.4% at the start of the second quarter which is expected to be the worst month of the three.

Next week the Bank of England is expected to increase its bond buying in response to the pandemic, with £100-200 billion added to its quantitative easing program. This comes as government borrowing spikes to fund the crisis which would have otherwise risked pushing up borrowing costs.

Brexit

High level talks between Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen are expected to take place next week, possibly as early as Monday, as the two sides look to reconcile the significant differences ahead of the 31 December transition expiry. As it stands, no deal is the default and the UK is expected to formally rule out an extension once again. We’ve seen this all before though and compromise tends to come late in the day. Still, business could very much do without this in a pandemic year.

Russia

The Central Bank of Russia is expected to cut interest rates by 50-100 basis points when it meets next week, from 5.5% where it currently stands. Like many others, the economy has been ravaged by the coronavirus crisis and contracted 12% in April, and May is not expected to be any better.

Switzerland

The SNB is not expected to cut interest rates next week, with the main policy rate remaining at -0.75%. The central bank is active in FX markets, with its holdings of foreign currencies recently rising above 800 billion Swiss francs – greater than the output of its economy – as it seeks to stop the currency rising too far as a result of safe haven flows. The central bank hasn’t set an official floor for the EURCHF pair – hopefully learning lessons of the past – but 1.05 is believed to represent the informal level.

Norway

The Norges Bank is not expected to cut interest rates next week, with the main policy rate currently sitting at 0%.

China

China Industrial Production (4.5%E) and Retail Sales (-2.0%E) on Monday. Poor number could see Asian markets weaken depending on Wall Street’s friday performance. Ongoing tensions with the US over HK, trade and Covid-19.

No other significant data this week.

Hong Kong

Protests have died down for now over the securities law. Possible resurgence this weekend. HSBC and Stan Chart under fire for backing China’s HK security law. No significant data this week.

India

Economy continues reopening but Covid-19 cases are spiking, markets negative. Standoff with China continues in the Himalayas but negotiations continue.

Australia

Australian stocks and Australian Dollar sold heavily on equity correction into the week’s end. Negative results on Friday for Wall Street should see that trend continue into the first part of the week. Australian markets are among most vulnerable to deep bull market correction. RBA minutes Tuesday. Will look for talk about negative interest rates.Potentially bullish for stocks. Unemployment Thursday (6.9% E) will drive intraday volatility. Otherwise what happens in the US will drive sentiment.

Japan

BOJ policy meeting Tuesday. Unchanged at -0.10% but looking out for more stimulus measures. Stocks positive. Tankan and Trade Balance Wednesday. Unlikely to impact markets. Markets will be led by Wall Street after sell-offs this week.

Market

Oil

Oil didn’t escape yesterday’s backlash, with crude falling more than 5% on apparent fears around rising case numbers. Again, we have to take this in the context of an asset class that has done rather well over the last couple of months. It’s been some rebound and I think some serious profit taking may have kicked in. It’s creeping higher again today but $40 may remain an upside barrier for WTI.

Gold

Gold has been range-bound for the last couple of months since it first tried to break $1,750 only to quickly run out of steam. It’s tried again a few times since, each as unsuccessful as the last, and it looks to be suffering the same fate again this time. It’s pushing a little higher again as it looks to capitalize on dollar weakness but we could see it run into difficulties once again, unless the greenback continues its journey south.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our Economic Calendar.

Craig Erlam, Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Correction time! – NZD/USD, EUR/PLN, CHF Index Technical Analysis.

It seems that Tuesday is a correction day. Indices are giving up Monday gains, safe havens are climbing higher and Oil is declining towards the mid-term up trendline. This is perfectly normal and should not ring any bells, at least for now. Today, we will focus on the currency market only. We can see few setups worth your precious 5 minutes.

We start with the NZDUSD, where in the past few weeks, the price was climbing up like crazy. The upswing stopped this week and the place, where it happened was totally not random. NZDUSD is bouncing from the crucial long-term down trendline. Also, they don’t do it just like that but by creating a great looking shooting star candlestick formation. As long, as we stay below the top of this candle, the sentiment is negative.

Small update about the EURPLN, where the price is currently finishing the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is all happening on the 4,4, so absolutely crucial support. As long as we stay above, the sentiment is positive. For the legitimate buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the neckline first.

We will finish with the Swiss Franc index, which we mentioned yesterday. The price was sharply going lower but we said, that the reversal is very probable, due to the combination of a dynamic and a horizontal support. CHF Index shows us today that we were right. Price perfectly bounces from those supports and climbs higher. That is an interesting short-term buying opportunity.

Monday Starts With More Optimism

New week starts without any excessive fireworks. Risk ON mode continues, so safe havens are trading lower and global indices are flirting with the new mid-term highs. Optimism can be widely seen across the globe. If we could name a one reason why it is all happening, we would say: NFP. The Friday’s number shocked and probably killed all the remaining bears (if they were still any left).

SP500 starts this week on the front foot. We have a small sideways movement but it should not concern the buyers. Bears probably can see a head and shoulders pattern here but we had so many of them on this chart that I guess, that no one believes in them anymore. In general, they are great, trustworthy formations but in order to trade them, one should wait for the breakout of the neckline, which was not happening here.

Quick update about the EURCAD, which we mentioned few days ago. We were above crucial support on the 1.505 and we said, that from this point, the upswing should start. It did but unfortunately it did not last long. Buyers managed only to test the upper line of the flag and that was it. Currently, the price is about to test the 1.505 again and for the range traders, this can be an interesting mid-term buying opportunity, again.

Interesting situation can be seen on our very own Swiss Franc index, which perfectly shows you the sentiment towards the CHF. Last few weeks are terrible but it seems that Franc has found a place to rest. This is the long-term up trendline connecting higher lows since the April 2019. We have also one horizontal support, which worked for some time but was eventually broken on Friday. Comeback above the orange area can be an interesting buying opportunity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.