USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 9, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell on Monday, but managed to bounce a bit towards the end of the session as the Dollar got a little bit of a bid at the 0.75 level. The pair is in a bearish trend, and the truth is that we will not buy this pair, and as a result we wait to see if we can get a bounce in which to sell. A break to new lows gets us selling as well.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 9, 2011

On Monday, the dollar fell to record low versus the Swiss franc after S&P cut toU.S.sovereign rating by one step to AA+, losing its top rating for the firs time since 1941.  Yet, the dollar managed to rebound from its lowest record on expected actions from the SNB to halt the franc’s advance.

Regarding fundamentals fromSwitzerland, unemployment remained at its lowest level in 2 1/2 years in July at 3%, marking the Swiss economy is showing progress which may encourage the SNB to take more monetary measures to stop the franc’s appreciation.

Meanwhile, the SNB is facing a daunting challenge as investors still resort to the franc as a safe haven currency amid the undergoing tensions. However, with the purchase of the ECB to Italian and Spanish bonds on Monday, which pushed their record-high yields down, thereby easing some of the tensions stemming from the escalating debt woes, demand on the franc, which benefited from the escalation of debt crisis, retreated.  

On Tuesday, eyes will  be on the FOMC rate decision , due 18:15 GMT, in case of any surprise from the Fed that may announce a third round of stimulus to reinvigorate growth that started to slowdown after the end of QE2 in June, especially after the monetary interventions seen last week by the SNB, BoJ and ECB. Yet expectation refer to no change on monetary policy as the Fed will probably keep interest rate unchanged and will not announce new stimulus.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 8, 2011

The USD/CHF pair had a wild day during the Friday session, but eventually ended up fairly unchanged in the end. The pair is a “sell only” pair as far as we are concerned, and as such are waiting to see one of two things: Either a break of the Friday lows in order to get short or a bounce to 0.80 in order to sell. We will not buy this pair as the trend is far too strong to fight.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of August 8, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell hard this past week, and has decidedly increased the bearish pressure. The pair has fallen past the 0.76 mark, and we like selling it because of the almost one-way nature of this pair. The pair could bounce however, and if it does – we will be here to sell. A bounce to 0.80 would be very welcome for this. A fresh new low could also trigger more selling as well.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for August 8 – 12, 2011

The USD/CHF continued its original southern journey in the week ended August 5 as worries in markets enhanced demand on the Swiss franc as favorable safe haven, where the Swiss National Bank (SNB) borrowing cost cut could not change the direction to the upside on the weekly charts.

With the S&P warning that theU.S.may still lose its top credit rating, record-high rise in Italian and Spanish bond yields and slowdown in global growth in addition to the improvement in the Swiss economy, the franc remained the most attractive refuge, especially after the intervention of the BoJ in the FX market through selling the yen.

The SNB unexpectedly cut the three-month Libor interbank rate to a range between 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the prior 0.00-0.75 percent range. Also, the SNB said it would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days to halt the franc’s rise which is deemed as overvalued according to the SNB which pledged to use further measures if necessary. The impact of the decision did not last long as investors continued to resort to the franc amid the worries prevailing in markets.

Regarding the main highlight of the previous week, the non-farm payrolls report showed improvement as theU.S.economy added 117,000 jobs in July from 46,000 in June while unemployment slipped to 9.1% from 9.2%.

The outlook for the pair is bullish as the monetary measures announced by the SNB are predicted to take its effect in the coming period, especially after the SNB President Philipp Hildebrand announcement that the bank will adopt all “effective measures” to halt the franc’s appreciation.

This week, the spotlight will be on unemployment from the Swiss economy, where the main focus in theU.S.will be the FOMC rate decision.

The Fed is predicted to keep interest rate at its low level between 0.00% and 0.25% in August to boost recovery that started to wane as seen by the most recent data, where there are talks that the U.S. is in a need of a third round stimulus.

For this week, the release of the data will be as follows:

Monday August 8:

As of 05:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its only data for the week which is unemployment for July with expectations referring to steadiness in the seasonally adjusted reading at 3.0%. On the other hand, the U.S.has no releases.

Tuesday August 9:

Eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , due 18:15 GMT, in case of any surprise from the Fed may announce a third round of stimulus to reinvigorate growth that started to slowdown after the end of QE2 in June, especially after the monetary interventions seen last week by the SNB, BoJ and ECB. Yet expectation refer to no change on monetary policy as the Fed will probably keep interest rate unchanged and will not announce new stimulus.

Wednesday August 10:

TheUSwill release MBA mortgage applications for August 5 at 11:00 GMT followed by monthly budget statement at 18:00 GMT.

Thursday August 11:

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release trade balance which is expected to show a narrowed deficit of $47.5 billion in June from $50.2 billion deficit a month earlier. At the same time, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 5 and continuing claims for the week ended July 30 will be available.

Friday August 12:

The week ends with the release of some fundamentals from theU.S.which are retail sales for July,UniversityofMichiganconfidence for August and business inventories for June at 12:30 GMT, 13:55 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 8, 2011

As of 05:15 GMT, the Swiss economy will release its only data for the week which is unemployment for July with expectations referring to steadiness in the seasonally adjusted reading at 3.0%. On the other hand, the U.S.has no releases.

Data from Switzerland may not have a significant impact on the pair’s movements unless it comes out with a surprise. In general, the latest data from the Swiss economy is showing progress relative to other major economies which gained the franc additional strength and made it more favorable safe haven.

The outlook for the pair is predicted to be to bullish, especially after the SNB pledge to use all measures to curb the franc’s advance and as the measures adopted the previous week by the SNB are expected to have effect in the coming period, yet the franc may face some difficulties in depreciating as it will still have strong demand from investors seeking refuge.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for August 5, 2011

The USD/CHF rose, and then fell as the markets around the world were rocked on Thursday. The 0.76 level looks like it is holding the pair up at the moment, so if that area gives way – we think it falls much farther. The trend is certainly down, so a breaking of that level wouldn’t be a surprise to us. The daily close below that level gets us short. Any and all rallies will also be sold.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2011

On Thursday, the Swiss franc continued its drop against the dollar, where the pair was still affected by the unexpected rate decision and interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB cut the three-month Libor interbank rate; in addition, policy makers said they would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days which is expected to have continuing effect on the franc. The SNB pledged to use further measures if necessary, thus further depreciation in the franc is expected to be seen in the coming period, yet some bet that the effect will not last long as the worries in the markets will increase demand on the franc as a refuge.  

On the other hand, the dollar was not much affected by the initial claims data which showed slight improvement as initial jobless claims inched down to 400,000 in the week ended July 30 from the revised prior 401,000.  

On Friday, the week ends with the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls report from theUnited States, due at 12:30 GMT. Expectations refer that change in non farm payrolls will reach 95,000 in July from the previous 18,000 while unemployment will linger at 9.2%. InSwitzerland, CPI for the year ending July will be out with expectations referring to a rise to 0.7% from 0.6%.

The non-farm payrolls report is predicted to have significant impact on the pair as investors are waiting for the data to see whether there is improvement or further deterioration after the drop seen in June. The market is full of tensions as the recent data from the U.S. provided some clues that the world’s largest economy is signaling a slowdown in growth pace, hence an improvement may help the dollar to continue its rebound against the franc while downbeat figures are predicted to push the pair to the downside.

The Swiss data are not expected to have remarkable effect on the pair as inflation is already constant, even if it rose on the back of the SNB’s cut to borrowing it would still move within secure ranges as it is far from the bank’s targeted level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 4, 2011

USD/CHF rose sharply after SNB rate cuts on Wednesday, but only to fall again. The candle shape shows how weak this pair really is, and that the Swiss National Bank has lost all control of its currency. At this point, it looks like nothing will stem the flow of money into Switzerland except taking the Franc off of the exchanges! We still like selling rallies.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 4, 2011

On Wednesday, the Swiss franc lost ground against majors, including the dollar, where the pair rebounded from a record low after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut the three-month Libor interbank rate to a range between 0.00-0.25 percent compared with the prior 0.00-0.75 percent range. Also, the SNB said it would increase the supply of francs in the market over the next few days to halt the franc’s rise which is deemed as overvalued according to the SNB which pledged to use further measures if necessary. The dollar, on the other hand, was downwardly affected by Moody’s warns that the U.S. may still lose its AAA top rating. Regarding fundamentals, U.S. ADP report showed that the private sector added 114,000 jobs in July, lower than 157,000 jobs added in June yet better than forecasts of 100,000. On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended July 30 and continuing claims for the week ended July 23, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals. The U.S. data is predicted to have an impact on the pair as it comes after the ADP report and before the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. With the expansionary monetary policy seen by the SNB along with the other possible interventions, the pair is predicted to show some rise, to halt its southern bearish direction.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 3, 2011

USD/CHF fell hard on Tuesday as the trading world looked for safe havens. The Swiss Franc seems to be the ultimate safe haven, and as such – the pair fell drastically. In fact, it is currently testing the 0.76 level at the end of the New York session, which of course is an all-time low. If you sell here, you are simply chasing the trade. We prefer to sell bounces.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 3, 2011

On Tuesday, tensions returned once again to markets as the approval of raisingU.S.debt ceiling and budget deficit cut raised concerns theU.S.would lead global economies into sluggish growth, therefore investors resorted to low-yielding currencies, led by the franc which benefited from the improvement in data.  

Swiss retail sales for the year ending June bounced 7.4% compared with the revised 3.9% drop, while PMI manufacturing rose to 53.5 in July from 53.4 in June.

On Wednesday, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, the U.S will release important data. As of 11:00 GMT, MBA mortgage approvals for July 29 will be available. At 12:15 GMT then 14:00 GMT, the U.S economy is to release ADP employment change where it is expected to decrease to 100,000 in July from the previous 157,000, while ISM non- manufacturing will decline to 54.0 in July from 53.3, according median forecasts.

The U.S. data is predicted to be carefully watched as the ADP employment may give an indication to the status of the U.S. labor sector before the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Also, the ISM non-manufacturing is expected to have an impact on the market after the sharp drop in manufacturing to 50.9 in July from 55.3.

Amid the worries persisting in market and progress in Swiss data, the pair is expected to continue its downside direction.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis August 2, 2011

The USD/CHF pair fell hard on Monday as the US stock exchanges fell. The pair did manage to bounce however, and as such – is forming a candle that looks somewhat like a hammer. This shows that although there is a significant downtrend in play at this point, there may be some support in the 0.77 area. We are waiting to see a bounce in order to sell this pair.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 2, 2011

On Monday, optimism prevailed in markets after the approval of raising U.S. debt ceiling before an August 2 deadline which prompted investors to sell low-yielding currencies, led by the yen and dollar, where the franc remained solid against majors. Chinese manufacturing boosted hopes after it showed better-than-estimated ease in expansion. On Tuesday, the Swiss economy will release retail sales for the year ending June at 07:15 GMT followed by PMI manufacturing for July, as of 07:30 GMT, which is expected to show an ease in expansion to 52.8 from the previous 53.4 recorded in June. After the slowdown in manufacturing expansion in July in all major economies, the sluggish pace is predicted to take place also in Switzerland, yet the extent of ease of expansion is going to detect the impact on the pair. On the other hand, the U.S. economy will release personal income and spending for June, where the former is predicted to inch down to 0.2% from 0.3% while the later is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.0%.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis Aug 1, 2011

The USD/CHF pair finally broke through the 0.80 level on Friday, and now begins a new leg down. Because we are in uncharted territory, this pair is likely to have reactions at major round numbers, so expect a slight bounce every one hundred pips or so. The market could also retest the 0.80 level to see if it is now resistance, which would also confirm the next down move.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of Aug 1, 2011

USD/CHF has broken through the formidable 0.80 barrier as traders are rushing to find safe haven assets to own. Currently, the Swiss Franc is way overvalued, but that means little in the present situation of panic and uncertainty. The pair could bounce slightly here to retest the 0.80 level, which we feel could present a selling opportunity. A break of the week’s lows could also be used as a signal to sell as well. We won’t buy this pair under any circumstances.

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis for August 1 – 5, 2011

The USD/CHF continued its southern journey in the week ended July 29 after having a breather in the week before.  The greenback fell to record low against the Swiss franc on concerns stemming from the delay of raisingU.S.debt ceiling which sparked demand on refuges. With the improvement seen in the Swiss economy relative to other major economies, the franc remained favorable over the dollar as a safe haven currency.

Regarding fundamentals, the main highlight was on U.S. GDP data which showed a strong slowdown in growth to 1.3% from the revised 0.9% which was 1.9% initially; while the Swiss data did not have remarkable effect on the pair’s movements as the main concentration was theU.S.debt limit issue.

This week the main focus will be the infamous jobs report in theUnited Stateswhere estimations are in favor of improvement in July as theUSeconomy is expected to add more jobs but unemployment is predicted to steady at 9.2%. On the flip side, the Swiss economy will release important data such as retail sales, PMI manufacturing and CPI.

For this week, the release of the data will be as follows:

Monday August 1:

The week starts with the release of no data from the Swiss economy, yet the U.S will release important data, at 14:00 GMT, which is ISM manufacturing for July; the reading is expected to show an ease in expansion to 55.0 compared with June’s reading of 55.3, noting that a reading above 50 means expansion and vice versa. TheU.S.data may have a significant impact on the pair if it signaled any surprise.

Tuesday August 2:

The Swiss economy will release retail sales for the tear ending June at 07:15 GMT followed by PMI manufacturing for July, as of 07:30 GMT, which is expected to show an in expansion to 52.8 from the previous 53.4 recorded in June. On the other hand, theU.S.economy will release personal income and spending for June, where the former is predicted to inch down to 0.2% from 0.3% while the later is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.0%.

Wednesday August 3:

While the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals, the U.S will release important data. As of 11:00 GMT, MBA mortgage approvals for July 29 will be available. At 12:15 GMT then 14:00 GMT, the U.S economy is to release ADP employment change where it is expected to decrease to 100,000 in July from the previous 157,000, while ISM non- manufacturing will decline to 54.0 in July from 53.3, according median forecasts.

Thursday August 4:

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S economy will release initial jobless claims for the week ended July 30 and continuing claims for the week ended July 23, while the Swiss economy lacks fundamentals.

Friday August 5:

The week ends with the release of the awaited non-farm payrolls report from theUnited States, due at 12:30 GMT. Expectations refer that change in non farm payrolls will reach 95,000 in July from the previous 18,000 while unemployment will linger at 9.2%. InSwitzerland, CPI for the year ending July will be out with expectations referring to a rise to 0.7% from 0.6%.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for August 1, 2011

The week starts with the release of no data from the Swiss economy, yet the U.S will release important data, at 14:00 GMT, which is ISM manufacturing for July; the reading is expected to show an ease in expansion to 55.0 compared with June’s reading of 55.3, noting that a reading above 50 means expansion and vice versa. The U.S. data may have a significant impact on the pair if it signaled any surprise.

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In the week ended July 29, the market sentiment was negative on concerns the U.S. may be prone to a downgrade to its AAA credit rating as well as possible default due to the delay ofU.S.officials to approve debt-ceiling increase plan.

Also, U.S. GDP data showed a strong slowdown in growth to 1.3% from the revised 0.9% which was 1.9% initially, adding to the mounting concerns.

On Monday, the attention will be towards manufacturing data which may give some indication about the status of the economy in the third quarter after strong ease in expansion witnessed in the second quarter.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for July 29, 2011

The USD/CHF pair continued to tread water on Thursday as the markets are seemingly focused on only one thing right now: the US debt talks. As long as this thing plays out in a stalemate, the more likely we are to see this pair fall. Of course, the same can be said about it anyway – it is a wicked downtrend that has been intact for years now, and as such, we only sell this pair. We are looking for a bounce to sell, or a close below 0.8000 in which to short as well.

USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for July 29, 2011

The week ends with the release of important data from the U.S. as 2q annualized GDP, due at 12:30 GMT, will show an ease to 1.7% from 1.9% in the first quarter, according to median forecasts.UniversityofMichiganconfidence will be available at 13:55 GMT with projections referring to an incline to 64.0 in July from the prior 63.8.

Despite that all attention is on theU.S.debt ceiling issue, the U.S. GDP data is expected to have an impact on the pair’s movements if it held any surprise, especially if it came lower than expectations as this will add to theU.S.agony.

A slowdown in growth is expected, as second-quarter data showed deterioration, thus in the case of worse than expected the dollar is predicted to face some downside pressure.

Yet, news related to the debt ceiling are expected to have more effect on the pair, where further indecision amongU.S.policy makers is predicted to push the dollar towards more record lows.

On Thursday, data released from the U.S. showed that initial jobless claims slipped to 398,000 on July 23 from 422,000 a week before, while pendi