USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 9, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is exchanging at 6.2858

 Yuan took their biggest tumble in three weeks on speculation that a worsening outlook for exports will dissuade China from allowing its currency to gain value. Later this week, there are a slew of eco reports due from China. Markets are hoping to see a slight improvement, or at least some support of a soft landing. With the eurozone deep in recession and the US spring stall in full effect, investors are worried about the overall affects it will have on growth and exports from China.

The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, lowered its daily reference rate by 0.22 percent, the most since March 12, to 6.2858 a dollar on Monday.

Export orders at China’s Canton Fair dropped 2.3 percent from a year ago, the first decline since 2009, the newspaper China Securities Journal reported on Monday. 

Economic Reports for May 7-8, 2012 actual v. forecast

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

7.4%

 

3.1% 

 

-8.8% 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.0% 

   

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

2.2%

 

0.5% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

4.7%

 

-1.5% 

 

7.6% 

   

May 08

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-19%

 

-10% 

 

-10% 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.59B

 

-1.40B 

 

-0.75B 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and CNY

May 08

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.59B

 

-1.40B 

 

-0.75B 

   

 

16:45

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May 10 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

 

 

-5.5K 

 

44.0K 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

 

 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

Tentative

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

 

7.93B 

 

5.35B 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

 

 

-0.2% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

 

 

-50.0B 

 

-46.0B 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

369K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3278K 

 

3276K 

 

 

 

14:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

 

 

30.0B 

 

-198.2B 

 

 

 May 11 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

-0.3% 

 

 
 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

20.9% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

11.9% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

 

 

15.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

14:55

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

 

 

76.4 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3028 as the USD has picked up momentum against all of its trading partners in early trading on Monday. With Asia back from a on again off again week of holidays markets are now seeing normal volume again. The elections in France are over with the upset as expected with Hollande defeating Sarkozy.

After a negative jobs report in the US, speculators found a silver lining and are now looking for more “accommodation” from the US Federal Reserve, where last month Ben Bernanke said that the Fed’s would be willing to offer additional policy changes if it was required.

At the end of the week and through the Asian session on Monday, crude oil continued to fall trading at the 96.00 range, which is a huge positive for the USD.

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Construction Index 

34.9

 

 

 

36.2 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

1.44%

 

1.40% 

 

1.25% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

7.4%

 

3.1% 

 

-8.8% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.9%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-3.10%

 

 

 

0.70% 

   

 

IDR

 

 

 

Indonesian GDP (YoY) 

6.3%

 

6.3% 

 

6.5% 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

Economic Events for May 8, 2012

00:01   GBP              RICS House Price Balance                           -10%               -10%

02:30   AUD             Trade Balance                                              -1.40B             -0.48B

06:45   CHF               GDP                                                                                        0.1%

06:45   CHF              SECO Consumer Climate                            -18                   -19

13:15   CAD             Housing Starts                                               202K             216K

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Weekly Fundamental Analysis May 7 – 11, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  For years, other countries have been asking China to let the yuan, also called then renminbi, to float more freely on the currency market. It appears that China is doing that now, with an announcement that the yuan will be allowed to float more freely against the US dollar.

China announced that it will allow the yuan to float a little more freely against the US dollar, allowing the currency to move one per cent to either side of the US dollar currency peg. The yuan will not be a truly free floating currency as a result of the new policy, but it will have a little more flexibility.

For years, Western countries, especially the United States, have charged that the Chinese undervalue their currency, keeping it artificially low against the US dollar. This allows for an edge in exports, as a weaker yuan makes goods cheaper to purchase by consumers in other countries. Many expect that if Chinese policymakers were to ever let the yuan freely float, it would appreciate quite quickly.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CNY ended the week at 6.2928

Highest: 6.3111

Lowest: 6.2767

Difference: 0.0344

Average: 6.2901

Change %: 0.09

Business conditions for Chinese manufacturers improved further in April although overall activity still declined, according to the final reading of a monthly survey by HSBC released Wednesday.

Chinese manufacturing expanded for a fifth straight month in April, prompting optimism about a moderate improvement in economic activity.

The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Tuesday its purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, rose 0.2 percentage points to 53.3 per cent in April, up from March’s 53.1 and February’s 51.0. A reading above 50 signifies expansion. China’s economic growth declined to 8.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year after Beijing increased interest rates and tightened other controls to cool inflation. Chinese leaders reversed course in December and promised more bank lending to help companies cope with a slump in global demand, but changes have been gradual.

Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.75%

 

4.00% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

54.8

 

53.0 

 

53.4 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

119K

 

177K 

 

201K 

   

 

NZD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

6.7%

 

6.3% 

 

6.4% 

   

 

EUR

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

 

380K 

 

392K 

   

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

115K

 

170K 

 

154K 

   

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Ivey PMI 

52.7

 

61.0 

 

63.5

   

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD,JPY,NZD and USD

May 7

1:30

AUD

 

Building Approvals m/m

   

-7.8%

1:30

AUD

 

Retail Sales m/m

   

0.2%

May 8

1:30

AUD

 

Trade Balance

   

-0.48B

9:30

AUD

 

Annual Budget Release

     

21:00

NZD

 

RBNZ Financial Stability Report

     

May 9

23:50

JPY

 

Current Account

   

0.85T

May 10

1:30

AUD

 

Unemployment Rate

   

5.2%

TBD

CNY

 

Trade Balance

   

5.4B

12:30

USD

 

Trade Balance

   

-46.0B

12:30

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

   

365K

May 11

1:30

CNY

 

CPI y/y

   

3.6%

12:30

USD

 

PPI m/m

   

0.0%

13:55

USD

 

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

   

76.4

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Monthly Fundamental Forecast May 2012

Outlook and Recommendation

The USD/CNY  has been relatively stable all year as forecasts for current account surpluses have narrowed, the central bank has made subtle shifts to their tone and the voice of those looking for CNY appreciation have faded. We have shifted our USDCNY forecast to reflect this, still looking for appreciation, but at a slower pace. We hold a USDCNY year-end target of 6.18. 

The pair ended the month at 6.3108

Highest: 6.3236

Lowest: 6.2776

Difference: 0.0460

Average: 6.3035

Change %: -0.15

China advanced the process of capital account liberalization in April by widening the trading band of the Chinese Renminbi (CNY) versus the USD. Nevertheless, there is no express guarantee that CNY appreciation is the preferred policy for the country’s authorities. In fact, with US$3.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the central bank maintains the ability to place the USDCNY exchange rate at whatever level is needed to ensure trade competitiveness. In fact, non-deliverable forward contracts discount that the CNY will depreciate further over the next 12 months. However, we are of the view that the yuan will gradually strengthen and close the year at 6.18 per USD.

On the growth front, we believe that the economic deceleration bottomed out during the first quarter of the year (real GDP expanded at a year-over-year rate of only 8.1%) and that the economy will expand by 8.4% as suggested by positive manufacturing activity trends since the beginning of the year. Given the growing political sensitivities associated with China’s currency regime during an election year in the United States, bilateral trade and rhetorical friction may intensify in the months ahead. Despite initial steps to introduce more flexibility into China’s exchange rate arrangement, we firmly believe that China will not alter the course of reforms drastically to destabilize the global financial system and that the USD will maintain its role as the world’s preeminent reserve currency. 

Central Bank Name: Peoples Bank of China

Date of next meeting or last meeting: TBD

Current Rate: 6.56 % (+ 0.25)

Statement highlights of last meeting: The participants analyzed current economic and financial situations at home and abroad. In their view, both the real sector and financial sector in China were moving in the direction intended by the macroeconomic management policy, the economy grew in a stable manner, while the growth of the general price slowed down. On the international side, although the European debt crisis abated and the global economy recovered moderately, uncertainties remained.

 

Important Economic events for the month of May affecting AUD, CNY, JPY, NZD and USD

Tuesday, May 01

00:30

 AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

 

 

00:30

 AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00

 USD

 

ISM Manufacturing Index

54.8

53.0

53.4

 

 

Wednesday, May 02

08:15

 USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

177K

209K

 

 

18:45

 NZD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

6.3%

6.3%

 

 

Thursday, May 03

08:30

 USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

380K

388K

 

 

Friday, May 04

08:30

 USD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

8.2%

 

 

08:30

 USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls

 

170K

120K

 

 

Thursday, May 10

21:30

 CNY

 

Chinese CPI (MoM)

 

 

0.2%

 

 

21:30

 CNY

 

Chinese CPI (YoY)

 

 

3.6%

 

 

Wednesday, May 16

19:50

 JPY

 

GDP (QoQ)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

 

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 7, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY has seen the dollar gain trading at 6.3001. As more and more data is shows an overall slowdown in the Chinese economy, the yuan continues to lose strength against the dollar, even though the Chinese economy is stronger in the short and long term, as they are simply slowing down to reduce huge growth, while the US is having a difficult time sustaining a slow recovery.

Recent data from the US showed that manufacturing is expanding above estimates, which in the short term will help push the recovery.

Today, we will see the numbers from the all important Nonfarm report.

Earlier this week, the HSBC PMI report showed a larger contraction in manufacturing in China then the official report earlier. 

Economic events for May 3-4, 2012 actual v. forecast

May 3

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

1.52%

 

1.18% 

 

0.41% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

53.3

 

54.6 

 

55.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-4.0% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

1.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

 

380K 

 

392K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

2.0%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3276K

 

3311K 

 

3329K 

   
 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.5

 

55.5 

 

56.0 

 

 

Economic Events for May 7, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

02:30   AUD               NAB Business Confidence                                                    3         

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.

02:30   AUD               Retail Sales                                                     0.2%                0.2%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

02:30   AUD               Building Approvals                                        3.0%               -7.8%

Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 4, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3023 as the USD climbs against the yuan. Data out of China over the past week continues to show an overall slowdown in growth, as predicted, but still the data is slightly below forecast.

China’s factory activity slowed  for a sixth straight month, with the slowdown beginning to drag noticeably on employment conditions, although the larger trend pointed to stabilizing conditions, according to a survey released Wednesday.

HSBC’s monthly manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 49.3 on a 100-point scale, up from a preliminary “flash” reading of 49.1 and a full point higher than March’s 48.3.

The HSBC report tends to contradict Chinese official data fairly regularly, and markets give more credence to this data.

Economic events for May 2-3, 2012 Actual v. Forecast

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

46.9

 

50.5 

 

51.1 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.9

 

47.3 

 

47.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.2

 

46.4 

 

46.3 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.7% 

 

6.8% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

19K

 

-10K 

 

-18K 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.9

 

46.0 

 

46.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.9%

 

10.9% 

 

10.8% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

119K

 

177K 

 

201K 

   

May 3 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

6.7%

 

6.3% 

 

6.4% 

   

 

Economic Events for May 4, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

12:30   USD               Nonfarm Payrolls                                         170K    120K   

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

 12:30  USD               Unemployment Rate                                    8.2%    8.2%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 3, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.2986 up from yesterday. The dollar was able to pick up some strength on an exceptional ISM Manufacturing report that showed that US manufacturing was expanding above forecast.

The report showed a rate of 54.8, when economists has forecast 53.0. Weak data from the US over the past two weeks had markets worrying that the US had hit s spring stall. In China today the HSBC Manufacturing PMI was released showing 49.30, any number under 50 is viewed as negative.

Also today, the Chinese central bank set the midpoint of the yuan’s daily trading range at a record high against the dollar. Although global dollar strength prevented the greenback from breaking below the 6.3-yuan level, the downward creep of the dollar’s range signals that China has no problems with a stronger yuan.

Economic Data for May 1 – 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

( Most markets were closed for “May Day” Holiday)

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

50.5

 

51.4 

 

51.9 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

54.8

 

53.0 

 

53.4 

 

 

May 02

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.30

 

 

 

49.10

   

Economic Events for May 3, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

8:30am            USD     Unemployment Claims                                             

Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.

8:30am            USD     Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q                          

Measures annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked – a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage. When businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

8:30am            USD     Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q                                    

This measures annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

10:00am          USD     ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI                                              

The Institute for Supply Management measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

1:00pm            USD     FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.       

9:30pm            AUD     RBA Monetary Policy Statement                

Released quarterly the Statement on Monetary Policy provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation – the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 03  08:30  Spain

May 03  08:50  France 

May 03  09:10  Sweden 

May 03  09:30  UK 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 2, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is up at 6.2923 as the yuan fell after disappointing manufacturing data and the greenback has been gathering strength on the hopes of monetary accommodations from the Fed in view of the poor eco data numbers in the past weeks.

Chinese manufacturing expanded for a fifth straight month in April, prompting optimism about a moderate improvement in economic activity.

The state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said on Tuesday its purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, rose 0.2 percentage points to 53.3 per cent in April, up from March’s 53.1 and February’s 51.0. A reading above 50 signifies expansion.

China’s economic growth declined to 8.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year after Beijing increased interest rates and tightened other controls to cool inflation.

Chinese leaders reversed course in December and promised more bank lending to help companies cope with a slump in global demand, but changes have been gradual.

Still, trading is likely to be subdued with much of Asia and Europe is closed on Tuesday for the May Day holiday.

Economic Data for April 30- May 1, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Chicago PMI 

56.2

 

61.0 

 

62.2 

 

 
 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Labor Cost Index (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

May 01  

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

53.30

 

53.60 

 

53.10 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

House Price Index (QoQ) 

-1.10%

 

-0.50% 

 

-0.70% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.75%

 

4.00% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

Economic Events for May 1, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

01:30     JPY         Labor Cash Earnings                                                                                                       

Indicator released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare shows the average income, before taxes, per regular employee. It includes overtime pay and bonuses but it doesn’t take into account earnings from holding financial assets or capital gains. Higher income puts upward pressures over consumption; therefore an increasing trend in earnings is inflationary for the Japanese economy.

02:30     CNY       HSBC Manufacturing PMI                                                                                         

The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics is an early indicator of economic health in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.

12:15     USD       ADP Employment Change                                                                                       

The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking; a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. 

14:00     USD       Factory Orders                                                                                                                  

The Factory orders released by the US Census Bureau is a measure of the total orders of durable and non durable goods such as shipments (sales), inventories and orders at the manufacturing level which can offer insight into inflation and growth in the manufacturing sector. 

22:30     AUD       AIG Performance of Services Index                                                                      

AIG Performance of Services Index released by the Australian Industry Group presents business conditions in the Australian service sector. The group surveys 200 manufacturers on their assessment of the business situation including employment, production, orders, prices, and inventories, and their short-term planning. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

22:45     NZD       Unemployment Rate                                                                                                     

The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 02  09:10  Sweden 

May 02  09:30  Portugal 

May 02  13:00  US 

May 03  08:30  Spain

May 03  08:50  France 

May 03  09:10  Sweden 

May 03  09:30  UK 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis May 1, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3108. Chinese markets are closed for the May Day Holiday.

 The yuan experienced its biggest daily fluctuation despite the central bank setting central parity at a record high for a second straight day – a sign that the currency is gaining in flexibility.

The People’s Bank of China set the central parity rate at 6.2787 against the dollar, the highest since 2005 when the yuan’s peg to the greenback was scrapped.

The currency fell 0.07 percent to close at 6.3102 per dollar in Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. In intraday trading, the yuan dropped as low as 0.53 percent, the first time it had tumbled more than 0.5 percent since April 16 when China doubled the yuan’s daily trading band to 1 percent from 0.5 percent to lend the currency more flexibility.

The central bank sets the central parity rate each day and the value of the yuan can rise or fall as much as 1 percent during intraday trading. The rate usually reflects China’s attitude toward the currency’s value.

Economic Data for April 29-30, 2012 actual v. forecast

NZD

 

 

 

Building Consents (MoM) 

19.8%

 

6.0% 

 

-6.2% 

   

NZD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

134M

 

445M 

 

202M 

   

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Service Output  

-1.00%

 

 

 

1.20% 

   

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production

-3.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.6% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.3%

 

 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Business Confidence 

35.80

 

 

 

33.80 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

3.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Unemployment Rate 

2.1%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Bank Landing (MoM) 

432.60B

 

 

 

426.40B 

 

 

 

                                   

Economic Events for May 1, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

02:00     CNY                      Chinese Manufacturing PMI                                          53.60                      53.10       

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

02:30     AUD                      House Price Index                                                             -0.50%           -1.00%

The Australian House Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s eight state capitals. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

05:30     AUD                      Interest Rate Decision                                                       4.00%                    4.25%

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

15:00     USD                       ISM Manufacturing Index                                               53.5                        53.4

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. 

23:45     NZD                      Employment Change                                                        0.4%                      0.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

23:45     NZD                      Unemployment Rate                                                         6.3%                      6.3%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Date  Time  Country 

May 01  09:30  UK 

May 02  09:10  Sweden 

May 02  09:30  Portugal 

May 02  13:00  US 

May 03  08:30  Spain

May 03  08:50  France 

May 03  09:10  Sweden 

May 03  09:30  UK 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

 

USD/CNY Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 30 – May 4, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  For years, other countries have been asking China to let the yuan, also called then renminbi, to float more freely on the currency market. It appears that China is doing that now, with an announcement that the yuan will be allowed to float more freely against the US dollar.

China announced that it will allow the yuan to float a little more freely against the US dollar, allowing the currency to move one per cent to either side of the US dollar currency peg. The yuan will not be a truly free floating currency as a result of the new policy, but it will have a little more flexibility.

For years, Western countries, especially the United States, have charged that the Chinese undervalue their currency, keeping it artificially low against the US dollar. This allows for an edge in exports, as a weaker yuan makes goods cheaper to purchase by consumers in other countries. Many expect that if Chinese policymakers were to ever let the yuan freely float, it would appreciate quite quickly.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CNY ended the week at 6.3015 ahead of the US GDP numbers. Most of the week the yuan had traded lower against the USD. Prior data from China had shown a slowdown in economic growth and rising property prices. Investors are now beginning wonder if the US economy has hit a standstill.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Apr 27, 2012

6.3015

6.2962

6.3090

6.2920

0.08%

Apr 26, 2012

6.2962

6.3025

6.3054

6.2951

-0.10%

Apr 25, 2012

6.3025

6.3063

6.3090

6.3006

-0.06%

Apr 24, 2012

6.3063

6.3067

6.3117

6.3011

-0.01%

Apr 23, 2012

6.3067

6.3084

6.3101

6.3037

-0.03%

 

Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast

 

 CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

0.5%

1.0%

-0.8%

 

 

 

 USD

 

New Home Sales

328K

320K

353K

 

 

 

 GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

0.1%

-0.3%

 

 

 

 GBP

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

0.3%

0.5%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-1.1%

0.5%

1.9%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Interest Rate Decision

0.25%

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

 NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

 

 

 

 USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

388K

375K

389K

 

 

 

 USD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

2.2%

2.5%

3.0%

 

 

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yuan, Yen, Aussie and the Kiwi

 

Apr 29

9:00pm

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

   

33.8

 

Apr 30

9:00pm

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

 

53.6

53.1

 

May 1

12:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

 

4.00%

4.25%

12:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

     

10:00am

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

53.0

53.4

 

May 2

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

179K

209K

6:45pm

NZD

Employment Change q/q

 

0.5%

0.1%

6:45pm

NZD

Unemployment Rate

 

6.2%

6.3%

 

May 3

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

382K

388K

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

55.5

56.0

9:30pm

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

     

 

May 4

8:30am

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

176K

120K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

8.2%

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

May 01  09:30  UK 

May 02  09:10  Sweden 

May 02  09:30  Portugal 

May 02  13:00  US 

May 03  08:30  Spain

May 03  08:50  France 

May 03  09:10  Sweden 

May 03  09:30  UK 

May 08  09:15  Austria 

May 08  09:30  Belgium 

May 08  14:30  UK 

May 08  15:30  Italy  

May 08  17:00  US 

May 09  09:10  Sweden 

May 09  09:30  Germany 

May 09  09:30  Swiss 

May 09  09:30  UK 

May 09  14:30  Sweden 

May 09  15:30  Italy  

May 09  17:00  US 

May 10  15:00  US 

May 10  17:00  US 

May 11  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

May 11  10:00  Belgium

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 30, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY, also called the Renminbi, or the yuan, strengthened by 42 basis points to 6.2787 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.

The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar is based on a weighted average of prices before the opening of the market each business day. 

US jobs reports disappointed the markets yesterday, bringing into question the strength of the recovery.

Economic Data for April 26-27th, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

53

 

42 

 

44 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

31.9K

 

34.3K 

 

32.8K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

-6

 

-4 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

 

375K 

 

389K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K

 

3295K 

 

3312K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

4.1%

 

1.0% 

 

0.4% 

   

Apr. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.5%

 

4.5% 

 

4.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

2.4% 

 

-1.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

10.3%

 

9.8% 

 

3.4% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

Economic Events for April 30, 2012 for the Asian and US Markets

13:30     USD                       Core PCE Price Index    

The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

14:45     USD                       Chicago PMI                                                                      

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

18:45     NZD                      Labor Cost Index                                                                                            

The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

21:00     CNY                      Chinese Manufacturing PMI                                                                     

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making. 

21:30     AUD                     House Price Index                                                                                            

The Australian House Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s eight state capitals. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

May 01  09:30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

May 02  09:30  Portugal  Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02  13:00  3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y Bonds on May 10

May 02  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

May 03  08:50  France  OAT auction

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 27 , 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY known as the Renminbi, or the yuan, strengthened by 94 basis points to 6.2829 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.

The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar is based on a weighted average of prices before the opening of the market each business day.

The greenback weakened on FOMC comments and on disappointing Durable Goods orders which fell unexpectedly.

Economic Data for April 25-26th, 2012 actual v. forecast

   

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-6 

 

-8 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-4.2%

 

-1.7% 

 

1.9% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

2.50%

 

2.50% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

Apr. 26

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

0.9% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean GDP (YoY) 

2.8%

 

3.0% 

 

3.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Nationwide Consumer Confidence 

53

 

42 

 

44 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 27, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

01:00     AUD       HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)                                       

HIA New Home Sales released by the Housing Industry Association presents the number of new home sales in Australia. It indicates the housing market condition. House buyers spend money on furnishing and financing their homes, which stimulates the demand for goods, services, and the employees

05:00     JPY         Housing Starts (YoY) (Mar)                                        

The Housing Starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport captures how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. It shows the strength of the Japanese housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts” sensitivity to changes in the business cycle

05:00     JPY         Annualized Housing Starts (Mar)                            

The Annualized Housing Starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport captures how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. It shows the strength of the Japanese housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts’ sensitivity to changes in the business cycle

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1)                            

The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing.

12:30     USD       Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index (Q1)                       

The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise.

12:30     USD       Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q1)

The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation.

13:55     USD       Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Apr)

The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money.

Government Bond Auctions (this week and first week in May)

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   Eur 1.5-2.5bn 4.75% May 2017 & Eur 1.5-2.5bn 5.5% Sep 2022 & Eur

0.75-1.25bn 3.75% Apr 2016 & 4.25% Feb 2019 BTPs

May 01  09:30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 Conventional Gilt

May 02  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

May 02  09:30  Portugal  Eur 1.25-1.5bn new Nov 2012 & new May 2013 T-bills

May 02  13:00  US  Announces details of 3Y Notes on May 08, 10Y Notes on May 09 & 30Y

Bonds on May 10

May 02  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on May 09

May 03  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

May 03  08:50  France  OAT auction

In The Eyes of the Experts – 25/4/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • EUR
  • CHF

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • GBP
  • USD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 15:30 ,19:30 ,21: USD
  • 23:15 CAD

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD    1.3112    1.3153    1.3185    1.3226    1.3258
GBPUSD 1.6082 1.6123 1.6137 1.6166 1.6192
USDJPY 80.64 81.01 81.22 81.59 81.80
USDCHF 0.9060 0.9082 0.9112 0.9131 0.9164
USDCAD 0.9824 0.9845 0.9886 0.9908 0.9949
AUDUSD 1.0215 1.0274 1.0304 1.0364 1.0393   

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 26, 2012 Forecast


Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3077 as the USD has shown a bit of weakness with negative eco data this week.

U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in nearly a decade, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite fell 0.8% compared to January levels

 A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence has declined for a second month, ticking down in April on lower expectations, even as views on the present situation increased, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The consumer-confidence index fell to 69.2

New homes in the U.S. were sold at an annual rate of 328,000 in March, slightly above market forecasts. Yet sales fell by 7.1% last month because purchases of new homes in February were revised sharply higher, according to Commerce Department

Cross-border trade settled in yuan increased 61% from a year earlier to CNY580.4 billion ($92.2 billion) in the first quarter, the state-run China Securities Journal reported, citing Assistant Commerce Minister Li Rongcan.

The main event this week—the Federal Open Market Committee meeting/Ben Bernanke press conference—kicks off today and concludes tomorrow, which may overshadow [other] releases.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to only tweak its economic forecasts at its two-day meeting this week, keeping all its options on the table given cross currents in recent economic data, analysts say.

Economic Reports for April 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 

CPI (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

0.6% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

Finnish Unemployment Rate 

7.50%

 

 

 

7.40% 

 

 

 

HUF

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.40%

 

0.60% 

 

0.60% 

 

 

 

SEK

 

Swedish Unemployment Rate 

7.70%

 

8.00% 

 

7.80% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

Industrial New Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

-2.9% 

   

 

CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

CAD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence 

69.2

 

69.7 

 

69.5 

   

 

USD

 

New Home Sales 

328K

 

320K 

 

353K 

   


Economic Events scheduled for April 26, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, JPY and CNY

00:00     AUD       Conference Board Australia Leading Index (Feb)                                              0.2%     

The Conference Board Australia leading Index released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It forecasts short to mid-term growth in the Australian economy.

04:30     JPY         All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Feb)                                                -0.2%     -1%

The All Industry Activity Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry captures the monthly change in overall production by all industries of the Japanese economy. The index indicates the Japanese GDP and the overall growth figures, providing insight into current levels of Japanese economic expansion.

23:30     JPY         National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)                                                       0.3%

The National Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau and it’s a measure of price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. CPI is the most significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation.

23:30     JPY         Overall Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)                                            4.2%      2.3%     

The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth.

23:30     JPY         Unemployment Rate (Mar)                                                                     4.5%      4.5%

The Unemployment Rate which comes from the Ministry of Health, Labor and welfare and it’s published by the Japan Statistics Bureau, is a measure of the percentage of unemployed in Japan. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market which influences the strength and direction of the Japanese economy.

23:50     JPY         Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)                                                                        1.5%

The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector.

23:50     JPY         Retail Trade (YoY) (Mar)                                                                           11.5%    3.5%

The Retail Trade released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry captures the aggregate sales made through a business location (usually a store) in which the principal activity is the sale of merchandise and related services to the general public, for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy.

23:50     JPY         Large Retailer’s Sales (Mar)                                                                                   0.2%

The Large Retailers’ Sales released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry” captures the total value of goods sold in large stores, chain convenience stores, and supermarkets. It indicates the level of consumption and consumer confidence. A high level of Large Retailers´ Sales stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3003.

The Chinese currency Renminbi, or the yuan, weakened by 33 basis points to 6.3003 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.

The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar is based on a weighted average of prices before the opening of the market each business day. 

Disappointing manufacturing figures from China added weakness to the Chinese currency. Traders have begun to position themselves before the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. The decisions are due to be released on Wed.

Also political turmoil in Europe has helped strength the greenback

Economic Data for April 23 & 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

47.3

 

47.2 

 

46.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

49.0 

 

48.4 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

48.2 

 

47.7 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

1.6%

 

-1.0% 

 

-1.1% 

   

Apr. 24

 

AUD

 

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

0.6% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 25, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

13:30     USD       Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                        0.5%                      1.8%

Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.

13:30     USD       Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                                   -1.5%                     2.4%       

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

 17:30    USD       Interest Rate Decision                                                                                                  

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation

 22:00    NZD       Interest Rate Decision                                                                   2.50%                    2.50%   

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 25  09:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Apr 25  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Jul 2044 Bund

Apr 25  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on May 02

Apr 25  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Central Banks Take Center Stage

This is going to be a busy week for the central bank committees and the markets will be waiting on news, announcements and indications of what the banks are going to decide.

On Wednesday we will hear the Federal Open Markets Committee Interest Rate Announcement. There is a clear division among the FOMC policy makers on when the Fed should start tightening monetary policy.

Some policy makers have called for an exit and rate hikes as early as this year, while a couple of committee members felt that policy accommodation should continue until 2016. With some of the recent U.S. economic data beginning to show signs of weakness and forecasts predicting slower economic growth, it would not be surprising to see the Fed maintaining a dovish stance and expressing a cautious outlook on the economy and the labor market, but stopping short of announcing another round of quantitative easing at this meeting.

However, QE3 will not be completely out of the picture and will remain as a viable option, especially if the occasional soft spots in the U.S. economic data become a persistent trend of deteriorating economic conditions lasting for at least a couple of months. Although additional quantitative easing may not come until the second half of the year or simply not at all, the future fate of the U.S. dollar will continue to depend on QE3 expectations and the Fed’s next move.

Following the FOMC the markets will get news from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. With the inflation gauge lower than expected, the global economy slowing and the EU debt crisis far from over, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not be in any hurry to start hiking rates and is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current 2.50% level. The RNZ will try to anticipate the upcoming RBA move and also interpret the April 3rd decision.

The announcement that the markets have been waiting for will be heard on Friday when the  Bank of Japan offers their interest rate decision and statement. Everyone expects that the Bank of Japan will announce additional expansion of its quantitative easing operations, but not everyone is betting on the bank lifting its inflation target to 2%.

Such move would make sense, especially because in February the combination of more QE with a 1% inflation target has proven to be an effective tool in the Bank of Japan’s campaign to weaken the yen. Considering that a decision to make additional asset purchases may be already priced in, the Japanese central bank will need to deliver a “shock and awe” type of an announcement in order to trigger another leg of significant yen weakness.

A failure to do so could see the yen quickly erasing some of its recent losses against the U.S. dollar and other currency majors. It will be a difficult call for the bank, but they will be watching the FOMC release earlier in the week.

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 24 , 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY traded at 6.3048 as the yuan weakened on disappointing manufacturing data from China.

China’s manufacturing activity contracted further in April, although the sector improved from levels seen in March, a preliminary reading from HSBC showed Monday. HSBC’s so-called “flash” Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 49.1 in April, compared with a final reading of 48.3 in March. A reading below 50 shows contraction, while one above 50 indicates an expansion. The improvement in factory conditions in April suggests that the earlier easing measures have started to work and hence should ease concerns of a sharp growth slowdown.

Eco data for Monday April 23, 2012 actual v. forecast that affect the ANZ, JPY, NZD and CNY

Apr. 23

 

AUD

 

 

 

PPI (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.10

 

 

 

48.30 

   

Economic Events scheduled for April 24, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, JPY and CNY

02:30     AUD      CPI (QoQ)                                                                                                            0.6%       

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

02:30     AUD      Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)                                           0.6%                      0.6%

The Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items. This data helps illustrate underlying inflation trends. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

15:00     USD       CB Consumer Confidence                                            70.3                        70.8

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

15:00     USD       New Home Sales                                                             320K                      313K     

New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 24  00:30  Japan  Auctions 20Y JGBs

Apr 24  08:30  Holland  Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jul 2014 & Jan 2037 DSL auction

Apr 24  08:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Apr 24  09:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Apr 24  14:30  UK  Details Conventional Gilt auction on May 01 & I/L auction on May 03

Apr 24  17:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Apr 25  09:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Apr 25  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Jul 2044 Bund

Apr 25  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on May 02

Apr 25  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

USD/CNY Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 23-27, 2012, Forecast

Introduction:  For years, other countries have been asking China to let the yuan, also called then renminbi, to float more freely on the currency market. It appears that China is doing that now, with an announcement that the yuan will be allowed to float more freely against the US dollar.

China announced that it will allow the yuan to float a little more freely against the US dollar, allowing the currency to move one per cent to either side of the US dollar currency peg. The yuan will not be a truly free floating currency as a result of the new policy, but it will have a little more flexibility.

For years, Western countries, especially the United States, have charged that the Chinese undervalue their currency, keeping it artificially low against the US dollar. This allows for an edge in exports, as a weaker yuan makes goods cheaper to purchase by consumers in other countries. Many expect that if Chinese policymakers were to ever let the yuan freely float, it would appreciate quite quickly.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CNY closed the week at 6.3047 after bouncing around all week on worries over Chinese and US economic recovery. The yuan traded as low as 6.2924 and hit a high of 6.3202.

As the weekends, worries over Euro Zone debt and economic growth in the US and China continue to grip commodities and were seen trading in a very tight range waiting for fresh cues for further directional moves. In a lackluster trading, spot gold held steady. Base metals in LME traded mostly flat as investors remained cautious after weak economic indicators from the U.S. Though, successful French and Spanish bond auction allayed concerns over Euro Zone’s deteriorating financial health to some extent. Unexpected rise in German business climate assessed by Ifo lifted the sentiments too. LME copper managed to hang above $8000 a ton.  In tandem with the international market, movements in MCX base metal complex and bullions were dreary.  Crude oil rose for the first time in three days supported by positive German data. Meanwhile, G-20 finance ministers and central bankers are to meet in Washington later today. The Indian rupee was seen bouncing off a 3-month low it hit during previous session at 52.11 up 0.17 percent

Market emotions remained rather subdued in the wake of persistent debt concerns in the Euro region in spite of a strong German business sentiment. Looking into the evening, no major economic data is slated for release. The ongoing G-20 finance minister’s meet in Washington would be the key event markets would be looking up to take cues from.  With Chinese economy going through a lean patch, possible Chinese Central bank liquidity action in the coming days could be a marquee event and have a real impact on the commodities.

The manager of China’s massive foreign exchange reserves and lenders are working together to ease funding for overseas investments. But major state-owned enterprises are preferred and financing is only available for projects that fit the government’s “going out” strategy

China’s yuan meanwhile took a slight drop lower against the dollar after the country’s central bank widened the daily trading band for the closely-controlled currency to 1.0 percent above and below a daily midpoint, double the previous 0.5 percent.

The operator of Hong Kong’s stock and futures exchange said late Thursday it plans to introduce offshore yuan futures in the third quarter to provide a way for investors to hedge their exposure to the Chinese currency.

The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits totaled 386,000 last week, keeping claims at a four-month high, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 388,000 from an initial reading of 380,000. Economists had projected claims would drop to a seasonally adjusted 374,000 in the week ended April 14, so the number is likely to disappoint investors. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 5,500 to 374,750, the highest level since late January. Continuing claims increased by 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.3 million in the week ended April 7, the Labor Department said. 

Sales of existing homes fell 2.6% in March, the second monthly drop though the sales pace in the first quarter was the best in five years, according to data released Thursday. The National Association of Realtors said.

 A gradual improvement in U.S. economic growth is expected past the summer, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in March, led by the interest rate spread.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yuan, Yen, Aussie and Kiwi

 AUD

 

CPI (QoQ)

 

0.6%

 

 

 

 AUD

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)

 

0.6%

0.6%

 

 

 USD

 

New Home Sales

 

320K

313K

 

 

 USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence

 

70.3

70.8

 

 

 USD

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

 

-1.5%

2.4%

 

 

 USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

 

0.5%

1.8%

 

 

 USD

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

 

 

 

 

 NZD

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

2.50%

2.50%

 

 

 JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

 

-0.4%

-0.3%

 

 

 JPY

 

Unemployment Rate

 

4.5%

4.5%

 

 

 JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY)

 

9.8%

3.5%

 

 

 JPY

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

 

0.10%

 

 

 

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 23, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is trading at 6.3057 slightly up in the Asian session today recovering some lost ground.

Investors will be looking to this weekend’s Group of 20 nations, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank meetings in Washington DC for clarity on how policymakers plan to deal with Europe’s debt crisis.

Weak US data also added to investors’ pessimism.

Figures showed sales of previously owned US homes in March unexpectedly fell, while more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Another report showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slower pace in April as orders and sales cooled.

Economic Data for April 19 & 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

08:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Dutch Unemployment Rate 

5.90%

 

6.00% 

 

5.90% 

   

 

09:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

5.743%

 

 

 

5.338% 

 

 

 

13:10

 

CAD

 

 

 

BoC Gov Carney Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

386K

 

370K 

 

388K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3297K

 

3280K 

 

3271K 

   

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

4.48M

 

4.62M 

 

4.60M 

   

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

8.5

 

12.0 

 

12.5 

 

 

Apr. 20

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.8% 

 

-0.6% 

   

Economic Events scheduled for April 23, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

01:30:00               AUD       Producer Price Index (QoQ)                                                                        0.30%

The Producer Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statisticsmeasures the average changes in prices in the Australian markets by producers of commodities. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

 01:30:00              AUD       Producer Price Index (YoY)                                                                          2.90%

The Producer Price Index released by the Statistics measures the average changes in prices in the Australian markets by producers of commodities. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 23-27  n/a  UK  Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication (further details tba)

Apr 23  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Apr 2013 (12M) Bubill

Apr 23  10:00  Belgium  OLO Auction cancelled

Apr 23  15:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Apr 27

Apr 24  00:30  Japan  Auctions 20Y JGBs

Apr 24  08:30  Holland  Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jul 2014 & Jan 2037 DSL auction

Apr 24  08:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Apr 24  09:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Apr 24  14:30  UK  Details Conventional Gilt auction on May 01 & I/L auction on May 03

Apr 24  17:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Apr 25  09:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Apr 25  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Jul 2044 Bund

Apr 25  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on May 02

Apr 25  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 20, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY is at 6.3062 with the greenback moving up some 53 pips with the spot market open brining a bid into USDCNY to push it well above the 6.30 level. We mentioned yesterday the attractiveness of playing a steepening in the NDF curve via along 12 month USDCNY, short 3mth USDCNY position. We will  have see this trade move further over the past 24 hours and would recommend looking at an initial target spread of ‐330 pips between the 3mth NDF and 12mth NDF as the market continues to fret about China’s economy, and the longer term implications of a more variable onshore renminbi regime.  

Economic Data for April 18 & 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.1%

 

1.3% 

 

1.3% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

3.6K

 

7.0K 

 

4.5K 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

Apr. 19

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.62T

 

-0.43T 

 

-0.32T 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-1.00

 

 

 

1.00 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 20, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

13:00:00                               G20 Meeting                    

Government Bond Auction Schedule:

Apr 20  15:30  Italy   Details CTZ/BTPei on Apr 24 & BOT on Apr 26

Apr 23-27  n/a  UK  Re-opened 3.75% 2052 Conventional Gilt syndication (further details tba)

Apr 23  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Apr 2013 (12M) Bubill

Apr 23  10:00  Belgium  OLO Auction cancelled

Apr 23  15:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Apr 27

Apr 24  00:30  Japan  Auctions 20Y JGBs

Apr 24  08:30  Holland  Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jul 2014 & Jan 2037 DSL auction

Apr 24  08:30  Spain  3 & 6M T-bill auction

Apr 24  09:10  Italy   Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Apr 24  14:30  UK  Details Conventional Gilt auction on May 01 & I/L auction on May 03

Apr 24  17:00  US  Auctions 2Y Notes

Apr 25  09:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Apr 25  09:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Jul 2044 Bund

Apr 25  14:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on May 02

Apr 25  17:00  US  Auctions 5Y Notes

Apr 26  00:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Apr 26  09:10  Italy   BOT auction

Apr 26  14:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on May 03

Apr 26  17:00  US  Auctions 7Y Notes

Apr 27  09:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction