USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 9, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY was trading at 82.22, down 0.17% as markets closed; down from ¥82.57

The pair was likely to find support at 81.56, Monday’s low, and resistance at 83.30.

A rally on Chinese equity markets has helped the Australian dollar to recover from a three month low.

The currency had received some support from Chinese stock markets, which reopened after three days of public holidays.

Tepid demand at a Spanish government bond auction spooked investors who had been upbeat about global growth prospects and sparked a sell-off in higher-yielding, or riskier, assets.

Reflecting the negative risk sentiment, the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese Yen strengthened against all of the major currencies pushing the kiwi dollar down.

Against the Japanese yen, the euro   fell 0.7% to ¥107.62.

Most Western Markets are Closed on Friday April 6, 2012 and many are Closed on Monday April 9, 2012.

Economic Events April 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

CHF

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Dutch CPI (YoY) 

2.50%

 

2.20% 

 

2.50% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.6% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing Production

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.3% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

BOE QE Total 

325B

 

325B 

 

325B 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

5.2%

 

5.4% 

 

5.8% 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.5%

 

3.0% 

 

-11.4% 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

82.3K

 

10.0K 

 

-2.8K 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

357K

 

355K 

 

363K 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.2%

 

8.0% 

 

7.4% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3338K

 

3350K 

 

3354K 

   

 

CAD

 

 

 

Ivey PMI 

63.5

 

66.0 

 

66.5 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.1%

 

 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 9, 2012

02:30     CNY      Chinese CPI (YoY)           3.3%                      3.2%

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                            

02:30     CNY      Chinese PPI (YoY)                                           -0.2%      

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.                                    

 10:00    EUR       Greek CPI (YoY)                                              2.10%

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. 

USD/JPY Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

 

The USD/JPY pair fell for much of the session on Friday, only to pop back up to form a hammer just above the 82 support level. The pair looks strong still, and we are long of it. Each one of these little pullbacks has produced a chance to buy, and we will look at this pair like that going forward as well. In fact, we are almost looking at a bullish flag at the moment that would have the 90 level being hit if completed on the break out.

With the Non-Farm Payroll coming out today, there is a real chance this pair moves in a strong manner. The pair generally will gain with good jobs numbers, and as the labor market in the United States has been improving, and the Bank of Japan is still buying massive amounts of bonds – we think the real risk is to the upside in this pair. A break of the highs from Thursday would also confirm this. Selling isn’t even a thought at the moment.

USD/JPY Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast April 6, 2012, Technical Analysis

In The Eyes of the Experts – 5/4/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • JPY
  • USD

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • GBP
  • EUR
  • CHF

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 14:00 GBP
  • 15:30 USD
  • 15:30, 17:00 CAD

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD 1.3034    1.3088 1.3160 1.3214 1.3286
GBPUSD    1.5803 1.5852    1.5880 1.5929 1.5957
USDJPY 81.63 82.03 82.47 82.87 83.31
USDCHF 0.9062 0.9108 0.9145    0.9190 0.9227
USDCAD 0.9882 0.9922 0.9947 0.9987    1.0010
AUDUSD 1.0209 1.0243 1.0276 1.0311 1.0344   

USD/JPY Forecast April 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the session on Friday as the risk off trade came back. The pair did manage to hold above the 82 level, and this is a good sign for the bulls. The hammer that was printed isn’t necessarily the most attractive one, but it is at the right place. It is now obvious that the 82 handle is becoming more and more important. The breakout that we have seen recently suggests to us that the Yen will continue to weaken, and the chart shows no real change in that thesis. We are buying this pair on dips as long as we are above the 80 handle. Selling isn’t a thought at the moment. 

USD/JPY Forecast April 5, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast April 5, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 6, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

REMEMBER MARKETS MOST MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON FRIDAY APRIL 6, 2012 AND MANY REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY APRIL 12, 2012

 The USD/JPY  strengthened, with the dollar buying ¥82.19, down from ¥82.49 Wednesday.

There is no scheduled economic data due from Japan today and the USD will be releasing the weekly unemployment claims report. If the number continues to fall as expected, the USD should show some additional gains. This pair will be waiting for Chinese numbers due on next week.

Remember, with markets closing for the holiday weekend volume will be light and traders will be repositioning themselves to cover for the Friday release of the NFP in the US.

Economic Reports for April 4 & 5, 2012 actual v. forecast that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Apr. 04

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Services Index 

47.0

 

 

 

46.7 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 

-1.7%

 

 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.48B

 

1.00B 

 

-0.97B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

4.8%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

209K

 

200K 

 

230K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

56.0

 

57.0 

 

57.3 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Crude Oil Inventories 

9.0M

 

2.2M 

 

7.1M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Gasoline Inventories 

-1.5M

 

-1.4M 

 

-3.5M 

 

 

Apr. 05

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese HSBC Services PMI 

53.30

 

 

 

53.90 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 6, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

There are no local or regional reports due on April 6, 2012 and most markets are closed

13:30     USD      Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

13:30     USD      Private Nonfarm Payrolls

Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.  Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.                                   

13:30     USD      Nonfarm Payrolls

13:30     USD      Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

There are no government bond auctions scheduled for Friday April 6, 2012

In The Eyes of the Experts – 4/4/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • JPY
  • GBP
  • USD

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • EUR
  • AUD
  • NZD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 14:45, 15:30 EUR
  • 15:15 , 17:00 USD

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD    1.3112    1.3167    1.3266    1.3321    1.3421   
GBPUSD 1.5791 1.5846 1.5945 1.6001 1.6106
USDJPY 81.11 81.97 82.48 83.34 83.84
USDCHF 1.8964 0.9036 0.9074 0.9147 0.9185
USDCAD 0.9867 0.9889 0.9908 0.9929 0.9949
AUDUSD 1.0191 1.0247 1.0356 1.0412 1.0520

USD/JPY Forecast April 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair shot straight up on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve minutes made no real mention of any form of quantitative easing coming in the near future. The release solidified the bullishness of this pair as the US Dollar got a boost from this release.

The pair has several things working for it at the moment, and as a result we are only buying it. The Bank of Japan has massively expanded its bond buying program, and this is akin to printing Yen and throwing them into the markets. The Yen overall should continue to weaken over the long term as the situation in the United States seems to be improving at the same time.

The economic numbers in the US have been trending higher, and the Japanese ones have been weak. There is a positive swap in this pair – albeit a small one – but this is another reason to own the Dollar over the Yen. The 82 level has been broken to the upside again, and it looks as if the momentum is picking back up.

Certainly the Federal Reserve looks more likely to raise interest rates before the Japanese, and this should continue to bring money into this pair. Also, the US stock markets should continue to outperform the Japanese ones as there is simply far weaker than the majors in America. Also, the fact that there may not be a pressing need to ease in America, suggests that the underlying economic conditions in America may be strengthening and therefore we should see even more investment going forward in the US.

The 83 level above should produce some decent resistance, but the overall trend of this pair seems to be changing right before our eyes, and certainly the bulls are running the show now. Because of this, we like buying pullbacks as long as we are above the 80 level. It isn’t until we get below that mark that we would even consider selling this pair. The 85 level should be resistive as well, but if it gives way – we are going to go much, much higher. 

USD/JPY Forecast April 4, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast April 4, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 5, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/JPY is trading at 82.71. The dollar was trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday; erasing earlier gains after the Federal Reserve said it was growing increasingly unlikely to roll out monetary stimulus programs to spur the economy, which sparked a global dollar rush. 

In Asian trading on Wednesday, USD/JPY traded from a low of 82.63 and off a high of 82.94.

The pair sought to test support at 81.63, Tuesday’s low, and resistance at 83.30, Monday’s high.

The dollar soared upon release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes of its last meeting, which revealed voting members are increasingly inclined to forgo fresh monetary stimulus measures.

Since the recession and ensuing sluggish recovery, the Federal Reserve has swollen its balance sheet by well over 2 trillion USD via buying assets from banks like bonds in order to steer the economy away from deflationary contraction and closer towards growth and hiring.

Such moves weaken the dollar, and until recently, the Fed was mum on the need for more such measures, even refusing to rule them out until just prior to Asia’s opening on Wednesday, as the labor market remains weak.

Economic Events April 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

-0.2%

 

12.6% 

 

11.3% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.9% 

   

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

0.41%

 

0.59% 

 

0.56% 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish PPI (MoM) 

0.36%

 

0.74% 

 

-0.09% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Construction PMI 

56.7

 

53.5 

 

54.3 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 

2.22%

 

 

 

2.18% 

 

 

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian Industrial Production (YoY) 

-3.9%

 

-5.8% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Redbook (MoM) 

0.70%

 

 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

New York NAPM 

551.80

 

 

 

543.10 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Factory Orders (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5% 

 

-1.1% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Global Semiconductor Sales (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

   

 

 

Economic Events for April 5, 2012 that affect the AUD, NZD and the JPY

As the Easter holiday draws closer and with several Asian Markets closed mid week for local holidays volume is down and there are no economic events scheduled for the Asian Markets.

In the US we will see:

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    355K       359K                    

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3350K     3340K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

In The Eyes of the Experts – 3/4/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • USD
  • CHF

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • AUD
  • NZD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 21:00 USD

 

Important rates:

In The Eyes of the Experts – 3/4/2012
In The Eyes of the Experts – 3/4/2012

USD/JPY Forecast April 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair had a rough day on Monday as the bears sold this pair off. The resulting candle is a long red one, and it is sitting right on the 0.82 support level. The pair looks weak at this point, but the area it is sitting in is significant support. We like buying this pair only, and will do so on supportive candles. We are at the right spot, but we haven’t seen the right candle yet. We also like buying at the 80 handle as well, so supportive candles at that point will be bought as well. Selling isn’t an option until sub-80 on a daily close. 

USD/JPY Forecast April 3, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast April 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 4, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session) 

The USD/JPY  was changing hands at ¥81.97 in early Asian trade, down from ¥82.06 and above ¥83.00 a day earlier.

The strong yen could weigh on market sentiment. A strong yen hurts Japanese exporters and dampens the stock market.

There were several economic reports released in Japan today, the monetary base reported in below forecast but the Average Cash Earning came in at 0.7% when the markets were expecting 0.2%

Economic Reports for April 3, 2012 actual v. forecast (Asian Session)

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Base (YoY) 

-0.2%

 

12.6% 

 

11.3% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.7%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

Economic Data for April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-4

 

-1 

 

-4 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.8%

 

0.3% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-15.2B

 

-13.0B 

 

-14.8B 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-1.7% 

 

-3.3% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.8%

 

3.2% 

 

4.7% 

   

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

51.1

 

49.5 

 

49.0 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.7

 

47.6 

 

47.6 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

48.4

 

48.1 

 

48.1 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.7

 

47.7 

 

47.7 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

52.1

 

50.5 

 

51.5 

   

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.8%

 

10.8% 

 

10.7% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

53.4

 

53.0 

 

52.4 

 

 

 

Economic Data Monday April 4, 2012 actual v. forecast that affects the NZD, AUD, and JPY

02:30     AUD      Trade Balance                                                 1.00B                     -0.67B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.                       

13:00     USD      Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks     

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (January 2009 – January 2013) is to speak. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments.                                                                         

13:15     USD      ADP Nonfarm Employment Change        200K                     216K     

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.              

15:00     USD      ISM Non-Manufacturing Index                  57.0                                    57.3

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

In The Eyes of the Experts – 2/4/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • JPY
  • GBP

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • AUD
  • NZD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 15:00 USD

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD    1.3272    1.3304    1.3340    1.3371    1.3407   
GBPUSD 1.5911 1.5952 1.5994 1.6034 1.6076
USDJPY 81.44 82.11 82.48 83.15 83.52
USDCHF 0.8981 0.9003 0.9029 0.9051 0.9077
USDCAD 0.9928 0.9950 0.9974 0.9996 1.0021
AUDUSD 1.0308 1.0332 1.0373 1.0397 1.0438

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 3, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/JPY  has been climbing since early morning trading, as the yen continues to lose strength. Currently trading at 8305 the pair climbed as high as 83.30 before losing steam.

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “tankan” business survey disappointed the markets and economists. The top category, covering major manufacturing firms, remained unchanged from December’s reading of -4, missing median expectations for a -1 result from surveys. A negative result indicates more pessimism than optimism among those surveyed. The large manufacturers expected conditions to improve just slightly in the current quarter, predicting a -3 reading for the next tankan in June.

On Sunday, the Chinese manufacturing PMI report got a mixed assessment onas the official survey for March improved to its highest in a year and a competing survey by HSBC showed the sector moving deeper into contraction.

The report showed:

  • „ Reduced factory output reflects falling new business from home and abroad
  • „ Manufacturing employment down at sharpest rate in three years
  • „ Input price inflation ticks higher, but remains modest overall

Japan is a major trading partner with China and relies heavily on its income from this trade. The entire pacific is down today after negative sentiment has set in.

 

Economic Data Monday April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast that affects the NZD, AUD, and JPY

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Manufacturing Index 

49.5

 

 

 

51.3 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-4

 

-1 

 

-4 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index 

5

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.5%

 

 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.8%

 

0.3% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

IDR

 

 

 

Indonesian Trade Balance 

0.70B

 

0.93B 

 

0.92B 

 

 

 

Economic Calendar April, 3 2012 events that affect the NZD, AUD and JPY

02:30     AUD      Retail Sales (MoM)                                        0.3%                      0.3%     

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.      

05:30     AUD       Interest Rate Decision                                4.25%                    4.25%                   

05:30     AUD       RBA Rate Statement     

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monthly rate statement contains the outcome of bank’s interest rate decision and discusses the economic conditions that influenced the decision. It can also give investors clues to the outcome of future decisions.                                                                                                

19:00     USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

USD/JPY Forecast April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair rose after originally falling for the Friday session as the support level at 82 held true yet again. The pair has recently enjoyed resurgence in the bullish case, and as long as the Bank of Japan continues to buy JBGs, they are essentially printing Yen and flooding the market. This should continue to weaken demand for the Yen, and as a result we expect this pair to continue to gain overall. We are buyers of dips, adding to our core long positions at this point. It would take a sub-80 daily close in order to get us selling this pair. 

USD/JPY Forecast April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast for the Week of April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair had a slightly bullish week overall this past week. The pair has recently broken above several long-term bearish factors, and as a result we only buy it now. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level form the support found at 80 has held overall, and we like the look of this pair for longs now. The 85 level is resistive, but we think it will eventually give way. There is a positive swap in this pair, albeit small, but that will simply reward traders who are willing to hang on. As long as we are above the 80 level, we are buyers and adding on dips. 

USD/JPY Forecast for the Week of April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Forecast for the Week of April 2, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis April 2-6, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment. 

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
  • Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

 

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY ended the month at 82.87 climbing from the low of 81.35.

The yen rose towards the end of the week and then fell as the month closed, not just as a traditional destination for safe-haven seekers but potentially as Japanese companies and investors may be selling foreign investments and repatriating profits as the end of the nation’s fiscal year is at hand.

Risk aversion continues to be the main theme in the foreign-exchange market towards the yen. Exporters need the yen to trade higher than 82.00¥ to be profitable.

Japan had some strong economic reports this week with unemployment dropping and Industrial Production exceeding forecast.

This one is a tough call for the beginning of the month. The pair are sitting right about where they should be

 

Economic Reports March 25-30, 2012 that affect the AUD, JPY & NZD actual v. forecast

 NZD

 

Trade Balance

161M

153M

-159M

 

 

 AUD

 

RBA Financial Stability Review

 

 

 

 

 

 JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY)

3.5%

1.4%

1.8%

 

 

 NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM)

-6.7%

 

8.1%

 

 

 KRW

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)

14.4%

3.4%

-2.1%

 

 

 KRW

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ)

0.3%

0.8%

0.4%

 

 

 JPY

 

Unemployment Rate

4.5%

4.6%

4.6%

 

 

 JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

 JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.9%

1.4%

1.9%

 

 

 AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

3.0%

 

-7.3%

 

 

 

Last week’s market highlights

The Good Stuff

  • Eurozone Finance Ministers finalizes the temporary combination of the EFSF and ESM. Italy and Spain get to contribute to their own bailout fund if needed
  • German unemployment falls more than expected and rate falls to lowest since reunification
  • German IFO business confidence up slightly to the highest since July
  • Italian business confidence up slightly from lowest since Dec ’09 and consumer confidence rises to 8 month high
  • Consumer confidence rises a touch to best since Feb ’11
  • Personal Spending in Feb rises .8% m/o/m, above estimates of up .6%
  • UK said purchase apps rose 3.3% to a 10 week high.
  • Crude finally drops but not enough

 

The Disappointing

  • Inflation expectations in both the Michigan (3.9%) and Conference Board (6.3%)confidence figures rise to the highest since May,
  • Chicago, Richmond, Dallas and KC manufacturing survey’s all fall more than expected in Mar from Feb
  • Real income falls in Feb by .1%, savings rate drops to 3.7%, the lowest since Aug ’09
  • Initial Jobless Claims 4 week avg 365k after benchmark revisions vs 355k prior
  • Feb Durable Goods orders grow less than expected after Jan’s weakness
  • UK said refinances fell 4.6% to lowest since early Dec
  • Home price index falls to cheapest since Jan ’03
  • Pending Home Sales in Feb unexpectedly falls .5% but from most since Apr ’10
  • German retail sales in Feb fall for 4th month in past 5
  • Shanghai index closes down for the 3rd straight week due to continued concerns with economic growth
  • Bernanke Feds will do more, possible monetary easing
  • Gasoline prices rise another .035 on the week to $3.93.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi. 

Apr. 02

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr. 03

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

05:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Rate Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apr. 04

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

             

 

Summary of this week’s highlights for the Asian Markets

On Monday, the ABS will announce building approvals data for February, while TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute will release their monthly inflation gauge for March.

Analysts are tipping the data to show approvals fell by 3 per cent in the month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will again come under close scrutiny this week when it meets Tuesday to vote on the level of the official cash rate.

Investors will watch proceedings closely, but recent comments from the RBA suggest the bank is happy with the current cash rate level.

The central bank said in its financial stability report last week that global financial markets have stabilized since last year and local banks are in a good position to address any future turmoil.

Analysts are expecting the RBA to leave rates on hold at 4.25 per cent, which would be the third consecutive month the level has been left unchanged.

February retail trade data is due from the ABS on Tuesday, and experts are tipping the figures to show a 0.5 per cent rise in sales.

Wednesday brings February trade balance data from the ABS, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group will release their performance of services index for March.

In China, HSBC will release its March performance of manufacturing index for Services in China, which will captivate investors’ right across the globe.

On Friday, most western markets will be closed for the Good Friday public holiday.

Government Bond Auctions this week

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Economic Indicators And Reports For The Last Day Of The Week, Month And Quarter.

These are the notes from my desk as the day passed ending with US markets and moving back to European markets and all the way back to Asia.

These are simply notes that I collected throughout the day from numerous sources.

Consumer sentiment in March reached the highest in more than a year, as consumers grew more confident about their current economic conditions.

The University of Michigan said the final reading for the consumer-sentiment gauge in March hit 76.2 — the highest since February 2011. Last month sentiment was at 75.3.

The Chicago PMI, or Chicago business barometer by its formal name, decelerated in March but marked its fifth straight month above 60%. The PMI fell to 62.2% in March from 64.0% in February, 

Americans spent money in February at the fastest pace in seven months, but a good chunk of their cash went to pay for higher energy costs and incomes rose at a much slower clip, government data showed.

Personal spending jumped 0.8% in February as personal income edged up 0.2%, the Commerce Department said.

With income growth unable to keep up, the faster pace of spending in the first two months of 2012 pushed down the personal savings rate to 3.7% in February from 4.7% at the end of 2011. That’s the lowest savings rate since August 2009.

Euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen on Friday agreed to temporarily boost the size of the firewall designed to contain the spread of the region’s debt crisis to 800 billion euros ($1.1 trillion) from a previously planned 500 billion euros.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Friday said she welcomed the decision by euro-zone finance ministers to temporarily boost the effective lending capacity of the region’s bailout funds to 700 billion euros 

Spanish government bond prices added to gains Thursday, pushing down yields, after Spain announced 27 billion euros ($36 billion) of austerity cuts in its 2012 budget. 

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos on Friday said the country was working to ensure it won’t need a third bailout but said the potential need for further aid couldn’t be ruled out, news reports said. “Some form of financial assistance might be required.

France posted a 2011 budget deficit equal to 5.2% of gross domestic product, coming in under the government’s initial target of 5.7%, French President Nicolas Sarkozy reported.

Inflation in the 17-nation euro zone slowed to a 2.6% annual pace in March, down from 2.7% in February, the European Union statistical agency Eurostat released today.

China’s central bank said Friday it will maintain a reasonable expansion of social financing, a measure of overall new credit, as it pursues prudent monetary policies this year.

The People’s Bank of China said it will also ensure relatively fast and steady economic growth, while keeping overall prices stable.

The central bank’s statement, posted on the website of its Shanghai branch, repeated standard language on its policy stance and mentioned no specific targets.

Total social financing is a measure designed by the central bank and launched in the first quarter of 2011 to better gauge the supply of credit in the economy beyond the traditional measure of new yuan loans.

Speculation is growing that China will trim the ratio of cash that its lenders must keep in reserve to encourage credit growth, amid signs the world’s fastest-growing major economy is losing steam.

The RBA is expected to slash its cash rate by 73 basis points over the next 12 months, according to the Overnight Index Swap curve, narrowing the gap with New Zealand’s record low official cash rate of 2.5 per cent.

New Zealand’s central bank is seen lifting the OCR by 26 basis points in the next 12 months.

Fitch on Thursday cut its view on Japan’s 2012 economic growth outlook to 1.9% from its December forecast of 2.2% growth, citing statistical changes in base year calculations using national accounts. 

Japan’s industrial output data for February offered a mixed picture Friday, with production down but expectations trending higher. Industrial production fell 1.2% last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. The result was far below forecasts for a 1.3% gain.

Japanese data surprised to the upside Friday, as consumer prices rose, unemployment eased, and household spending increased more than expected. The February jobless rate slipped to 4.5% from January’s 4.6%, the Internal Affairs Ministry reported.

 

In The Eyes of the Experts – 30/3/2012

What is this report?

In the morning the experts meet in the dealing room in order to prepare themselves for another trading day. They read the business press, and note relevant economic announcements expected during the day. They also consider the support and resistance lines and discuss the important rates in the major pairs; they indicate which pairs may strengthen and those which could weaken. Afterwards they wish everyone a successfully day of trading and turn on the computer screens…

Below you can find pairs the experts assume may be strengthen and weaken during the trading day; support and resistance lines relevant to the day’s trading and critical time for trading each day (important news etc.).

Currencies to watch for Long:

  • JPY
  • NZD

 

Currencies watch for Short:

  • EUR
  • CAD

 

Today’s important times (GMT+2):

  • 14:30 : CAD

 

Important rates:

Pair R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
EURUSD    1.3209 1.3261 1.3303 1.3354 1.3397
GBPUSD 1.5821 1.5887 1.5925 1.5992 1.6029
USDJPY 81.37 81.83 82.34 82.79 83.31
USDCHF 0.8998 0.9025 0.9059 0.9086 0.9119
USDCAD 0.9924 0.9946 0.9981 1.0003 1.0039
AUDUSD 1.0227    1.03193    1.03576    1.04113    1.0449   

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis April 2, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/JPY  has fallen to 81.95¥

The yen rose, not just as a traditional destination for safe-haven seekers but potentially as Japanese companies and investors may be selling foreign investments and repatriating profits as the end of the nation’s fiscal year is at hand.

The dollar pared losses to ¥82.45 compared with ¥82.78 late Wednesday. The euro followed suit, dropping to ¥109.36 from ¥110.43.

Risk aversion continues to be the main theme in the foreign-exchange market towards the yen. Trading in the currency may also be swayed by discussions of raising the country’s sales tax to cut its deficit, though such a move risks slowing consumption and the economic recovery.

Exporters need the yen to trade higher than 82.00¥ to be profitable

 

Economic Data March 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.8%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Private Loans (YoY) 

0.7%

 

1.3% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian Business Confidence 

92.1

 

91.7 

 

91.7 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-3.3%

 

-5.4% 

 

-5.6% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Current Account 

-8.5B

 

-8.4B 

 

-10.5B 

   

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 6-Month BOT Auction 

1.12%

 

 

 

1.20% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

-2.7%

 

 

 

-7.4% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.0% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

2.2%

 

3.0% 

 

-3.6% 

   

 

USD

 

 

 

Crude Oil Inventories 

7.1M

 

2.5M 

 

-1.2M 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Gasoline Inventories 

-3.5M

 

-1.7M 

 

-1.2M 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 1 & 2, 2012 that affect the JPY, AUD, and NZD

02:00                    CNY       Chinese Manufacturing PMI                                                                      51.00    

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making

02:30                    AUD       Building Approvals (MoM)

Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market. 

00:50                    JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Index        

The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 large manufacturers.                                                        

15:00                    USD       ISM Manufacturing Index

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. 
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.        

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Economic Events scheduled for April 1 & 2, 2012 that affect the JPY, AUD, and NZD

02:00                    CNY       Chinese Manufacturing PMI                                                                      51.00    

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making

02:30                    AUD       Building Approvals (MoM)

Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market. 

00:50                    JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Index        

The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 large manufacturers.                                                        

15:00                    USD       ISM Manufacturing Index

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. 
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.        

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12