Marketmind: Hitting the Buffers

A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.

Yet there is no dismissing the brewing concerns — we seem to be past peak liquidity and peak growth, yet inflationary pressures show no sign of abating. Chinese factory gate prices have hit 13-year highs, the ECB just upped inflation projections and later on Friday, we will see what U.S. producer prices looked like in August. Remember last month brought the biggest annual increase in over a decade.

Warnings about input costs are coming through from companies too, with Nestle warning of even higher factory prices in 2022. The question is when these costs trickle down to consumers and their earnings; wage inflation, as we know, tends to be less easily tamed.

It comes as the post-pandemic growth rebound fizzles. Data shows Britain’s economy barely grew in July (versus expectations for a 0.6% expansion), even as tax hikes loom.

What of stimulus? The Bank of England appears well on the road to a 2022 interest rate rise while the Bank of Canada on Thursday flagged plans to stop adding new stimulus and to raise interest rates.

Policy has long been tightening across emerging markets and later on Friday, Russia will likely raise interest rate for the fifth time this year.

Finally, there is no getting away from the fact that the ECB — among the more dovish central banks — has hit peak QE, even though it was at pains on Thursday to describe its stimulus slowdown as recalibration rather than tapering.

So while equity futures signal a more cheerful session in Europe and Wall Street, stocks may face a rocky ride from here.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Friday:

-U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke for 90 minutes

-China Evergrande bonds rebound as loan payment extensions ease default worries

-Willis Towers Watson has $5 bln of capital, possibly for M&A

-Euro zone finance ministers meet

-Fed speakers: Cleveland President Loretta Mester 1300 GMT

Russia central bank meeting

Ratings: S&P: Ukraine, Ghana, Jordan, Malta; Moody’s: Montenegro

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

Russia: Near-Term Economic Stabilisation Contrasts with Slow Reform Momentum, Climate Challenges

A recently proposed carbon levy by the EU, Russia’s largest trading partner, could potentially have a sizeable impact on the government’s budget that relies heavily upon oil and gas exports.

Strengthened public finances and accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves have enabled the Russian economy to withstand imposition of international sanctions and the Covid-19 crisis thus far comparatively well.

Russia’s output levels already recovered close to those pre pandemic. GDP ought to grow 4-4.5% for the calendar year 2021, revised up from 3% under our June 2021 forecasts, before 2.7% growth next year.

Greater economic stability has been met, however, with sidestepping of addressing structural weaknesses

Greater economic stability nearer term has, however, coincided unfortunately with an overlooking of the economy’s longer-run structural weaknesses.

Real disposable income of households declined by nearly 10% between 2013-2020. Russia’s growth prospects over this next decade are weak, of 1.5-2% annually, despite already comparatively low income per capita.

Structural reforms aimed at addressing underinvestment will prove crucial to increasing longer-run growth prospects, while global climate policies make the focusing upon of environmental issues a high priority.

Implementation of national investment projects has been sluggish

The government’s implementation of USD 360bn of national investment projects has thus far been sluggish. As of 1 August, only half of planned annual budgetary allocations have been executed. Delays of implementation weigh on the long-run health of the economy.

Fiscal vulnerability to Western environmental legislation

The economy’s carbon intensity and government reliance on energy exports for revenue make budgeting vulnerable to Western environmental legislation. Russia is the world’s fourth-largest carbon emitter, accounting for approximately 4.7% of world CO2 emissions.

Russia’s exports to the EU will be materially affected by the proposed carbon levy, designed to accelerate an EU switch to a lower-carbon energy mix and which could contribute to less demand for fossil fuel products.

The potential cost of an EU levy is still small compared to the overall size of the Russian economy, at around half a percent of Russian annual GDP, but this cost could, nevertheless, increase should EU expand the levy to include oil and gas.

Russia will gradually integrate climate-related issues into economic policymaking, as new regulations come into force in key export markets. In response to the EU, we see Russia potentially combining legal challenges to the planned carbon levy with offers of environmental-policy cooperation with Brussels in order to avoid the full impact of EU policies on its exports.

Download Scope Ratings’ full research report

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Levon Kameryan is Senior Analyst in Sovereign and Public Sector ratings at Scope Ratings GmbH.

Stretched Dollar Remains Firm

Sterling fell to new six-month lows while the euro recorded its lowest level since late March, and the Australian dollar fell to new lows for the year. Led by a 2% fall in the South African rand, with the bulk of the sell-off coming after the central bank kept policy rates unchanged, which is now lower on the year, most emerging market currencies weakened. The Russian rouble was the strongest in that space, though the lion’s share of the gains came before the central bank hiked its key rate by 100 bp to 6.5% ahead of the weekend.

The dollar had seemed to track short-term US interest rates until recently, and its strength has come in the face of softer rates. The implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract finished the week near 42 bp, down 13 bp over the past few weeks. The 10-year yield fell to about 1.125% before recovering to trade closer to 1.30% at the end of last week.

The dollar and interest rates are behaving as one would expect in a risk-off environment. The contagious Delta variant appears to be dampening activity economic activity in Australia, Japan, and parts of Europe. Several US states are recording multi-month highs in cases, and weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level in two months (in the week through July 16).

Floods in Germany, Belgium, and China could also impact economic activity and prices. Droughts in North America may boost food prices and boost natural gas prices as an alternative for a decline in hydroelectric output. A freeze in Brazil sent coffee prices sharply higher, while wildfires in Canada saw lumber prices rise dramatically (almost 22% over the past three sessions) after trending lower in recent weeks.

On the other hand, equities are harder to fit into the risk-off narrative. Most of the large Asia Pacific equity market fell, but Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rallied and will take a four-day advance into next week. The benchmark is within striking distance of the record high it set earlier this month. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ advanced and have only fallen in two of the past eight weeks. They are both poised to set fresh recorded highs.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index recorded a key reversal in the middle of last week. After rising to its best level in three months (~93.20), it reversed lower and settled below the previous day’s low. Follow-through selling the next day took it to 92.50 and the 20-day moving average. It recovered by stalled near 93.00 before the weekend. Neither the MACD nor the Slow Stochastic confirmed the new high, but the underlying tone remains constructive and buying on dips seems stronger than the selling pressure into rallies. Moreover, the five and 20-day moving averages cross-over has caught the major moves this year since February, and the five-day average is still above the 20-day.

The year’s high was set in late March near 93.45. A break above there could target the high from early last November near 94.30, and the 94.50 area corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the drop since the panic-driven high in March 2020 near 103.00.

Euro

The downside momentum of the euro seemed to pause in recent days ahead of $1.1750. However, the bounces have been brief and shallow. The momentum indicators have not confirmed the recent lows. The risk is for a test on the year’s low set in late March near $1.1700, and a break of it could signal a return to the low set near $1.16 on the night of the US election last November.

The ECB’s lower for longer forward guidance could attract funds into the asset markets, but the euro itself is unloved, and speculators in the futures market are still scaling out of a net long position. A move above $1.1830, where the 20-day average is found, would lift the tone. The euro has not closed above the 20-day moving average since early June.

Japanese Yen

The dollar began last week testing JPY109.00, its lowest level since late May as the US 10-year note yield slumped below 1.20%. By the end of the week, the yield was back near 1.30%, and the greenback was around JPY110.60. It settled above its 20-day moving average (~JPY110.40) for the first time in a couple of weeks. The MACD and Slow Stochastic have turned up from oversold territory. Overcoming chart resistance near JPY110.65 could see a push above JPY111.00. The year’s high was set earlier this month near JPY111.65.

British Pound

Sterling fell to five-month lows near $1.3570 on July 20, just shy of the (50%) retracement of the rally from last November, found near $1.3550. In the second half of the week, a recovery attempt stalled near $1.3785 in front of the 20-day moving average (~$1.38). This area presents an important technical hurdle, which overcoming would lift the tone. The momentum indicators look constructive as they try to turn higher. A move below $1.3680 warns of a return to the lows.

Canadian Dollar

The greenback reached 5.5-month highs against the Canadian dollar at the start of last week, near CAD1.28. It pulled back to the CAD1.2525 area before buyers re-emerged, and it consolidated mostly below CAD1.26. The MACD has turned down, as has the Slow Stochastic, without confirming the high. Still, a push back above the CAD1.2650 area could warn of another run at the highs. The 20-day moving average is near CAD1.25, and the US dollar has not closed below it since early June. Doing so now would likely confirm that a top is in place.

Australian Dollar

The elevated covid cases in Sydney and the weakest composite PMI (preliminary reading) since May 2020 (45.2) illustrate headwinds for the Australian economy. The minutes from last month’s RBA meeting showed that officials have a flexible stance toward bond purchases. It is likely to use that flexibility at its August 3 meeting to boost its bond purchases. Ahead of that, investors expect a jump in Australia’s Q2 CPI, with the headline rising above 3.5% year-over-year from 1.1% in Q1.

The underlying measures will likely firm toward 1.5%-1.6% from 1.1%-1.13%. The Aussie posted a key reversal in the middle of the week by falling to new lows for the year (~$0.7290) and then recovered to finish above the previous day’s high. Sellers were lurking in front of $0.7400 and drove it back to $0.7350 ahead of the weekend. The pre-weekend price action was poor, and the close was near session lows. The next important support area is near $0.7300.

Mexican Peso

Although the dollar set four-day lows ahead of the weekend, it still managed to close high (0.5%) on the week for the third consecutive week. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index fell for the fourth consecutive week and the sixth weekly fall in the past seven weeks. The greenback peaked against the peso in the middle of the week, slightly above the 200-moving average (~MXN20.21). Initial support now is seen near MXN19.95 and a stronger shelf in the MXN19.80-MXN19.83 area.

The Slow Stochastic is trending higher and is approaching overbought territory. The MACD has flatlined near the trough. In the slightly bigger picture, the dollar has mostly been confined to a range set on June 24 (~MXN19.7150-MXN20.2150).

Chinese Yuan

The US dollar posted a minor gain of about 0.15% against the yuan ahead of the weekend to secure another weekly advance. The advance covers the last eight weeks without fail. While that is statistically true and no doubt has not been lost on official and private observers, it is also true that the greenback has been mostly in a CNY6.45-CNY6.50 range. Rather than see a depreciation of the yuan, it has gone essentially nowhere.

The dollar has not traded above the high set in late June near CNY6.4910 this month, though it was approached a couple of times. It is also true that the yuan’s 0.7% gain against the dollar this year make it one of the strongest emerging market currency so far this year and stronger than all the major currencies but the Canadian dollar (~1%). Moreover, by focusing on the eight-week decline of the yuan against the dollar, one misses the fact that the yuan is at five-year highs on a trade-weighted basis (CFETS).

This article was written by Marc Chandler, MarctoMarket.

Speculators Bet on a Continued Commodity Rally in 2021

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last Tuesday, December 8. A week where vaccine and stimulus optimism continue to propel stock markets higher and the dollar lower while bonds held steady. Commodities traded mixed with continued profit taking across agriculture commodities and a big setback for natural gas more than offsetting gains in oil, fuel products and metals, both precious and industrials.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded lower by 1.2%, hurt by continued profit taking in agriculture commodities led by soybeans, wheat, cocoa and cattle together with a 16.7% drop in the price of natural gas. Overall these developments helped drive a 3% reduction in the total net long held by speculators across 24 major commodities to 2.3 million lots, but not far from the February 2017 record of 2.4 million lots. A clear sign that speculators expect more to come from the commodities in 2021 as the reflation trade gathers momentum and the dollar potentially continues to weaken.

It is also worth noting that speculative positions, compared with recent peaks in 2017 and 2018, are much more spread out across all sectors, with net long positions held in all but one (CBOT Wheat) commodity. In February 2017 when the net-long hit the mentioned record, the energy sector accounted for 56% of the total length while today that share is down to 42%.

graph 1

Energy

The combined net long in Brent (+27k lots) and WTI (-1.6k lots) reached 602k lots, the highest since January. This after Brent began toying with $50/b as the market, despite current Covid-19 lockdowns and loss of mobility, continued to price in a vaccine-led recovery next year. The natural gas long was cut by 26% by in response to a dramatic 16.7% sell-off on demand concerns driven by unseasonal warm weather across the U.S.

Metals

Gold was bought for a second week in response to the rally that followed the failed break below $1800/oz. The bulk of the 19k lots of buying was driven by fresh longs, something that also helps to explain the increased volatility seen last week when the move above and subsequent failure to hold $1850/oz triggered a 45 dollar correction last Wednesday. Net platinum buying extended into a fifth week and during this time, the white metal has outperformed its yellow big brother by 17%.

Speculators in silver meanwhile maintained a net long close to 43k lots for a fourth consecutive week. Thereby extending the lack of price response in a week where the metal rallied by close to 3%. During a week of sideways trading before popping to a fresh seven-year high, the net long in HG copper rose by 5% to 90.4k lots, not far from the 91.6k lots record high recorded two months ago.

Agriculture

For a second week, a broad but relatively small amount of selling was seen across the sector with the soybeans complex and sugar accounting for the bulk of the 58k lots reduction to 1 million lots. Only short position was held in CBOT wheat before a post-WASDE and Russia export tax and quota threats gave the crop a strong end of week boost.

graph 2

Forex

Dollar bears continued to be awarded in the week to December 8 as the Greenback spiraled lower to reach the lowest against both the euro and the Bloomberg Dollar Index since April 2018. The tumble being part of a broader vaccine optimism led move across financial markets pricing in a recovery in global growth for 2021 and the potential for better investment opportunities outside the U.S.

These developments helped drive a 14% increase in the combined dollar short against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index to $30.7 billion, a ten-week high. The bulk of the $3.7 billion of net dollar selling occurred against the euro which saw a 12% rise in the euro net-long to 156,429 lots (€19.6 billion). The other and more surprising contribution came from Sterling which despite trading lower on the week saw 13,609 lots of net buying which swung the net back to a long for the first time in three months.

The Swiss franc together with the Mexican Peso and Russian Ruble saw net selling while the net long in Japanese yen reached a fresh four year high at 48,166 lots.

graph 3

Financials

graph 2

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

COT

This article is provided by COT, part of Saxo Bank Group through RSS feeds on FX Empire

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 20, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is moving not far from the upside border of a wide consolidation range. Possibly, today the pair may update 1.1455 and then fall towards the downside border at 1.1350. After that, the instrument may grow towards 1.1395. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 1.1550; if to the downside – start a new decline with the target at 1.1250.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating around 1.2550. Today, the pair may trade downwards to reach 1.2477 and then resume growing to test 1.2550 from below. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1.2450.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After breaking 71.31 to the upside, USDRUB is expected to continue the correction towards 72.20. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then fall to break 71.28. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 70.00.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the ascending wave and reaching the target at 107.50, USDJPY is expected to continue growing towards 107.60 and then form a new descending structure to break 107.06. After that, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 106.60.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9444. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.9370 and then grow to break 0.9444. Later, the market may continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9474.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.6982. Today, the pair may fall towards 0.6944 and then return to test 0.6982 from below. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to break 0.6944 and then continue falling with the target at 0.6900.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent is still correcting towards 42.58. The main scenario suggests that the price may complete this correction and grow with the target at 43.23. After that, the instrument may start a new decline towards 42.95 and then form one more ascending structure to break 43.50. Later, the market may continue trading upwards to reach 44.44.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1803.50. Possibly, today the pair may test this level from above and then form one more ascending structure towards 1812.97. Later, the market may start another decline to return to 1803.50 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1819.22.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 9212.00, BTCUSD is trading downwards to reach 9136.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to complete this wave at 9300.00. Later, the market may resume falling to break 9000.00 and then continue moving inside the downtrend with the target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

The S&P 500 Index is consolidating above 3200.5. Possibly, the asset may break this level to the downside and continue the correction towards 3111.1. However, if the price grows and breaks 3235.5, the market may continue trading upwards to reach 3300.3 and then start a new decline with the target at 3111.1.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 16, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is falling towards 1.1385 and may later correct to reach 1.1416. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.1340.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading downwards to reach 1.2539 and may later correct towards 1.2591. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1.2454.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling to break 70.60. Possibly, today the pair may break this level and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.96. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to test 70.50 from below and then start a new decline with the target at 69.80.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed the descending structure at 106.86; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 107.12 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 106.55.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 0.9444, USDCHF is consolidating around this level; this entire movement is considered as an upside continuation pattern. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 0.9517.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling towards 0.6981 and may later grow to reach 0.0.7009. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6922.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent has broken 43.50 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range and grow with the short-term target at 45.00, After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 43.50 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating above 1804.00. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach 1819.55. Later, the market may start another correction with the target at 1752.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 9150.00, BTCUSD is correcting towards 9210.00. After that, the instrument may resume falling to break 9000.00 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After completing the ascending wave at 3240.5, the S&P 500 Index is falling towards 3200.0. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 3220.4 and then start a new decline to break 3184.5. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 3111.1.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 15, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has extended the wave up to 1.1420. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1.1373 and then start another growth to reach 1.1390, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1330.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, передний, освещенный Автоматически созданное описание

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.2480, GBPUSD is correcting upwards with the target at 1.2588. Later, the market may start a new decline to reach the short-term target at 1.2454.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, компьютер, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating below 71.23. Today, the pair may fall to break 70.55 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 69.90. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 71.27.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, большой, зеленый, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 107.20. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 107.00 and then start another growth to reach 107.50. Later, the market may resume falling towards 106.94 or even deeper, 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, сидит, освещенный, темный Автоматически созданное описание

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9400. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 0.9415, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9440 or even higher, 0.9550; if to the downside at 0.9388 – form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9366.

Изображение выглядит как легкий, компьютер, ноутбук, большой Автоматически созданное описание

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.7017, AUDUSD is expected to fall towards 0.6967 and then grow to reach 0.6991, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6924.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, экран, играет, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is moving not far from the upside border of the range. Possibly, the pair may break 43.30 and then continue moving upwards with the target at 45.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to return to 43.30 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 45.55.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, легкий, темный, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1805.00, Gold is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1791.33 or even 1777.17; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 1819.55.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, часы, легкий Автоматически созданное описание

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 9260.00 and testing it from below, BTCUSD is expected to fall to break 9160.00. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 9000.00 or even 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, телевидение, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After the ascending structure towards 3185.0 and a gap up this morning, the S&P 500 Index is expected to reach 3240.4 and then fall to return to 3185.0, thus forming a new consolidating range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction with the target at 3111.1; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure towards 3300.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 13, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.1255, EURUSD is moving upwards to reach 1.1338. Possibly, the pair may reach it and then form a new descending structure towards 1.1300. After that, the instrument may start another growth to reach 1.1380 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1225.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.2694 and then fall towards 1.2640. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2712 and then start a new decline with the target at 1.2585.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still falling towards 70.20. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 70.90 and then start a new decline with the first target at 69.50.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the ascending wave at 106.93; right now, it is falling. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 106.55 and then start another correction to the upside with the first target at 107.17.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.9399, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9377. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.9440 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to return to 0.9399.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6960 to the upside, AUDUSD is still growing and may form one more ascending structure to reach 0.6994. Later, the market may start a new decline towards 0.6965 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.7000.

AUDUSD

BRENT

After finishing the correction at 41.41, Brent has completed another ascending impulse towards 43.50. Today, the asset may form a new descending structure towards 42.50 and then grow to break 43.50. After that, the instrument may continue moving upwards with the short-term target at 44.55.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After falling and reaching 1794.00, Gold is correcting towards 1805.50. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1792.50 and then start another correction to return to 1805.50.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9260.00. Today, the pair may fall towards 9060.00 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 9190.00. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the short-term target at 8700.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After breaking 3180.1 to the upside, the Index may continue growing towards 3240.5. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 3180.1 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 3300.5. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the first target at 3100.6.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 9, 2020

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300 to the upside, EURUSD may continue growing towards 1.1380. Later, the market may correct to reach 1.1280 and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.1410.

EURUSD

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2525 and finishing another ascending wave at 1.2626, GBPUSD is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, the pair may expand this range up to 1.2646. However, if the price breaks 1.2600 to thttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/gbp-usdhe downside, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the first target at 1.2440.

GBPUSD

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing the descending impulse at 71.05, USDRUB is consolidating above this level. Possibly, thehttps://www.fxempire.com/currencies/usd-rub pair may correct towards 71.67 and then form a new descending structure to break 71.00. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 70.10.

USDRUB

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 107.40 to the downside; right now, it is still falling towards 106.99. Later, the market may correct to return to 107.40 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

USDJPY

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9383 to the downside, USDCHF is expected to continue falling towards 0.9333. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to test 0.9383 from below and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 0.9320.

USDCHF

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After breaking 0.6971 to the upside, AUDUSD may choose an alternative scenario and form another ascending wave to reach 0.7017. Later, the market may start another decline towards 0.6972 and then resume growing with the target at 0.7023.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent is growing towards 43.90 and may later start a new correction to reach 42.50. After that, the instrument may resume moving upwards with the target at 45.02, at least.

BRENT

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After reaching 1800.00 and forming an upside continuation pattern around this level, Gold has broken it upwards to extend the wave up to 1817.80; right now, it is falling to test 1801.90 from above and may later return to 1810.10, thus forming another consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1780.00.

GOLD

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After breaking 9350.00 to the upside and expanding the range up to 9450.00, BTCUSD has returned to 9350.00 to test it from above. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9500.00 or even 9550.00.

BITCOIN

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3160.0. Possibly, today the air may expand the range up to 3200.5 and then down to 3120.5. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 3240.4; if to the downside – start a new correction with the target at 3050.5.

S&P 500

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 8, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300 to the downside and starting a new correction towards 1.1250, EUR/USD has reached the short-term correctional target at 1.1260 and returned to test 1.1300 from below. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1250 and finish the correction. Later, the market may resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.1380.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, сидит, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBP/USD has finished the ascending wave at 1.2580; right now, it is falling to reach 1.2515 and may later grow towards 1.2555, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.2460.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, монитор, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing the ascending wave at 72.20, USD/RUB is about to finish the first descending impulse towards 71.20 and may later grow to reach 71.70, thus forming a new consolidation range between these levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 70.60.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, сидит, большой, летит Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USD/JPY is still consolidating around 107.50. Today, the pair may fall towards 107.40 and then start another growth to reach 107.80. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 106.90.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 0.95450 along with the correction towards 0.9415, USD/CHF is expected to form one more ascending structure to break 0.9460 and then continue trading upwards with the predicted short-term target at 0.9510. However, there might be an alternative scenario, which implies that the price may break 0.9410 to the downside and continue trading inside the downtrend to reach 0.9380.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, держит, мужчина, удаленный Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD is forming another descending wave to reach 0.6905, Later, the market may start another growth towards 0.6940 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 0.6860.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, телевидение, сидит Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is still correcting towards 42.42 and may later form one more ascending structure to reach 43.80. After that, the instrument may start another decline to return to 42.42 and then resume moving upwards with the target at 45.02.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, сидит, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1786.00 to the upside, Gold is expected to test it from above and then continue growing with the short-term target at 1799.17. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 1777.77 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, темный, легкий, освещенный Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is falling towards 9126.00 and may later correct to reach 9250.00 thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9550.00; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, сидит, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After forming the consolidation range above 3160.0 and breaking it to the downside, the Index is expected to correct towards 3120.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 3240.3.

"Изображение

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 7, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1300, EUR/USD is consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new correction towards 1.1250; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 1.1380.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has broken 1.2490 to the upside; right now, it is still consolidating above it. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.2545; if to the downside – start another correction to reach 1.2435.

Изображение выглядит как монитор, экран, сидит, ноутбук Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is falling towards 71.11 and may later grow to reach 71.55, thus forming a new consolidation range between these levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 69.69; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend to reach 72.15.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, держит Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking 107.41, USDJPY is consolidating below this level. Possibly, the pair may fall with the short-term target at 107.07 and then start another growth to return to 107.07 and test it from below. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 106.60.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, компьютер, часы, счетчик Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching its downside target at 0.9387, USDCHF is correcting towards 0.9425. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 0.9404, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9470; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 0.9330.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, стол, маленький, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the ascending wave at 0.6990; right now, it is moving downwards to break 0.6949. Later, the market may continue falling with the target at 0.6900.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is trading around 43.00. Today, the pair may expand the range up to 43.80 and then fall to reach 42.48. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 45.05.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, сидит, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1786.90, Gold is expected to fall to test 1777.00 from above. After that, the instrument may grow to break 1787.77 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1799.19 or even 1800.00. Later, the market may form a new descending wave to reach 1750.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending impulse at 9126.00 and breaking it to the upside, BTCUSD has reached 9350.00; right now, it is falling towards 9245.00 and may later grow to reach 9300.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9550.00; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, сидит, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After breaking 3166.5 to the upside, the Index is consolidating above it. Possibly, today the asset may reach 3200.5 and then correct towards 3120.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 3240.5.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 6, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EUR/USD is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 1.1290 and then start a new correction towards 1.1262. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.1305 and then start another correction to return to 1.1262.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, цветной, играет

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBP/USD is trading upwards to break 1.2485 and may later continue growing towards 1.2512. Later, the market may correct to return to 1.2485 and then start another growth to reach 1.2533. After that, the instrument may resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2424.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, монитор, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing another ascending structure towards 71.66, which may be considered as the third wave to the upside, USD/RUB is expected to correct to reach 70.00, at least. After that, the instrument may resume growing with the target at 72.12.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, ноутбук, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USD/JPY is consolidating around 107.57. Today, the pair may grow to reach 107.81 and then start a new decline to return to 107.57. If later the price breaks this range to the upside the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 108.01 or even 108.22.

Изображение выглядит как игра

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USD/CHF is moving close to the downside border of the range. Possibly, today the pair may form another ascending wave towards 0.9450. After that, the instrument may fall to break 0.9430 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 0.9387.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, сидит, компьютер, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD is moving upwards; it has already broken 0.6945 to the upside. Possibly, the pair may test this level from above and then form another ascending structure with the target at 0.6988 or even 0.7000.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, ноутбук, экран, компьютер

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is trading upwards and may reach 43.80. Later, the market may correct to reach 42.44 and then start another growth towards 45.20 to complete this ascending wave. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the first target at 41.50.

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1777.00. Today, the pair may test 1768.15 from above and then resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 1786.00 or even 1798.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, компьютер

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending impulse at 8900.00, BTC/USD is still consolidating and growing towards 9100.00. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 9550.00; if to the downside at 0.9490 – resume trading inside the downtrend to reach 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, монитор, телевидение

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is moving upwards. Possibly, the asset may reach 3200.4 and then correct towards 3119.0. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 3240.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, компьютер, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 2, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 1.1184, EUR/USD is growing towards 1.1287, thus forming a new consolidation range around 1.1240. After reaching 1.1287, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.1204.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, экран, маленький Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After forming another consolidation range around 1.2373 and breaking it upwards, GBP/USD continues growing to reach 1.2500. Today, the pair may reach it and then resume trading downwards to break 1.2408. Later, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2319.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, компьютер, экран Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is still trading downwards to reach 69.96. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to break 70.50 and then continue growing with the target at 72.00. However, if the price falls and breaks 69.90 to the downside, the market may continue moving inside the downtrend to reach 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, монитор, телевидение Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The market may form a new descending structure with the first downside target at 106.80; if to the upside – resume trading upwards to reach 108.20 and then start a new decline with the above-mentioned target.

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the descending wave at 0.9444, USD/CHF is forming another consolidation range not far from the lows. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 0.9440, the market may continue the correction with the target at 0.9400; if to the upside at 0.9490 – resume trading upwards to reach 0.9540.

Изображение выглядит как счетчик, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD has formed the consolidation range around 0.6902. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form another ascending structure with the target at 0.6971; if to the downside – resume trading downwards to reach 0.6783.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, монитор, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 41.70. Possibly, today the pair may trade upwards to reach 43.80 and then fall to return to 41.70. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 45.20.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, стол, компьютер Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is back to consolidating around 1770.00. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1750.00, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1734.34; if to the upside at 1778.50 – resume trading upwards to reach 1795.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, зеленый, держит, играет Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 9280.00, BTC/USD is expected to start a new decline to break 9000.00. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. And that’s just a half of another descending wave.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, темный Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3076.0 without any particular direction. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 3150.5 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3076.0.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, цветной, стол, большой Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for July 1, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing another correctional structure at 1.1260, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.1215. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then form a new consolidation range around it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1170. After that, the instrument may correct to test 1.1215 from below and then form a new descending structure to reach 1.1144.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, телевидение, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2300 upwards, GBP/USD has completed another ascending wave at 1.2370, which may be considered as a correction. Today, the pair may consolidate around 1.2370. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 1.2350, the market may resume trading downwards to break 1.2300 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2200.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, компьютер, экран, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After extending the ascending structure up to 71.31, USD/RUB is expected to correct towards 69.69. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards to reach 71.81 and then start another decline with the target at 68.00.

Изображение выглядит как экран, сидит, большой, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After reaching another upside target at 108.15, USD/JPY is expected to fall towards 107.50. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to reach 108.22, thus forming the third ascending wave within the correction.

Изображение выглядит как воздушный змей, цветной, играет, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After forming another consolidation range around 0.9515 and breaking it to the downside, USD/CHF has reached 0.9460; right now, it is forming a new range above this level. Possibly, the pair may resume trading upwards to break 0.9540 and then continue growing within the uptrend with the target at 0.9660.

Изображение выглядит как компьютер, звезда

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.6832, AUD/USD has completed the ascending structure at 0.6900. Today, the pair may start a new decline to break 0.6850 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 0.6787.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, передний, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 40.70 within a Triangle pattern. Possibly, today the pair may test 40.70 from above, rebound from it, and then resume trading upwards to break 42.20. Later, the market may continue growing with the target at 43.80. However, there might be another scenario, according to which the price may break 40.70 to the downside and then continue the correction to reach 37.70.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, ноутбук, компьютер, стол

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1775.00, Gold has reached 1785.50. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure to return to 1775.50 and then start another growth with the target at 1791.55 or even 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, часы, счетчик

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is still consolidating around 9100.00. Possibly, today the pair may start another growth to reach 9280.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 8700.00. Later, the market may correct towards 9200.00..

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, компьютер, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

After attempting to break 3076.0 to the upside, the Index is expected to continue growing towards 3145.5 or even 3233.3. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 3075.5.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, большой, играет

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 25, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EUR/USD continues falling with the predicted target at 1.1181. After that, the instrument may correct towards 1.1244 and then may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1144.

Изображение выглядит как телевидение, монитор, сидит, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading downwards with the predicted target at 1.2280. Later, the market may start another correction towards 1.2411 and then resume falling to reach 1.2277.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, сидит, черный, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 69.60 and then fall towards 69.25. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 70.00 and then start a new correction.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, монитор, черный, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the ascending wave at 107.25 without any corrections, USD/JPY is consolidating around 107.15. Possibly, today the pair may continue growing to reach 107.88 and then start another correction to return to 107.25. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 108.20.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, компьютер, играет, держит

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the upside target at 0.9475, USD/CHF is consolidating around this level. Today, the pair may break this range to the upside and reach 0.9515. Later, the market may correct to return to 0.9475 and then trading upwards with the first target at 0.9530.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, монитор, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUD/USD is falling towards 0.6818. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to reach 0.6895 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6800.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, экран, сидит, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT Oil

Brent has completed the descending wave at 40.00; right now, it is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the pair may grow towards 42.58 and then fall to reach 41.20, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing towards 45.00; if to the downside – continue the descending correction with the target at 36.70.

Изображение выглядит как внутренний, сидит, ноутбук, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling towards 1752.00. Later, the market may grow to reach 1765.00 and then fall towards 1750.00. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to return to 1765.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, белый, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTC/USD is falling; it has already broken 9240.00. Possibly, the pair may continue forming the third descending wave with the target at 8700.00.

Изображение выглядит как черный, сидит, экран, висит

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is falling; it has already broken 3060.0. Possibly, today the pair may form a continuation pattern below this level. The short-term target is at 2960.5. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure towards 3050.5 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 2955.5.

Изображение выглядит как экран, монитор, черный, сидит

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 24, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.1280 to the upside and then reaching 1.1345, EUR/USD has finished the descending impulse at 1.1300 along with the correction towards 1.1325. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1260 and then resume continue trading upwards with the target at 1.1350.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, экран, телевидение

Автоматически созданное описание

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After expanding the consolidation range up to 1.2540, GBP/USD is trading downwards to reach 1.2420. After that, the instrument may start another growth towards 1.2482, thus forming another consolidation range between the two latter levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.2277.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, компьютер, монитор

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is still falling towards 68.40. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 69.20 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 67.80.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, легкий, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After finishing the descending wave at 106.06, USD/JPY has completed the ascending impulse towards 106.55; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may continue growing to reach 106.90 and then fall towards 106.50. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 107.25.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, легкий, компьютер, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the downside target at 0.9420, USD/CHF has completed the ascending impulse towards 0.9453 along with the correction at 0.9435, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing towards 0.9550; if to the downside – form a new descending structure with the target at 0.9419.

Изображение выглядит как объект, сидит, компьютер, экран

Автоматически созданное описание

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.6975, AUD/USD has finished the descending impulse towards 0.6923 along with the correction at 0.6960, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 0.7022; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6800.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, экран, легкий, ноутбук

Автоматически созданное описание

BRENT

Brent has completed the ascending wave towards 43.90; right now, it is falling to reach 41.37. Later, the market may start another growth towards 42.60 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 40.30.

Изображение выглядит как ноутбук, сидит, компьютер, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1763.00 to the upside, Gold is expected to continue growing towards 1776.20. Later, the market may fall to return to 1763.00 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1800.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, компьютер, белый

Автоматически созданное описание

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 9600.00. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 9500.00 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 9850.00. After that, the instrument may resume falling inside the downtrend with the target at 9500.00.

Изображение выглядит как сидит, черный, экран, легкий

Автоматически созданное описание

S&P 500

The Index is still consolidating around 3114.0. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 3165.5 and then fall to return to 3114.0. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 2958.5; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 3233.3.

Изображение выглядит как экран, телевидение, монитор, черный

Автоматически созданное описание

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for June 23, 2020

EUR/USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending structure at 1.1255, EUR/USD is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.1310 and then fall to break 1.1200. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1100.

EURUSD

GBP/USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 1.2500, GBP/USD is consolidating below this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside to 1.2500, the market may continue the correction towards 1.2545; if to the downside at 1.2440 – form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2380.

GBPUSD

USD/RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USD/RUB is falling towards 69.01. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 69.49 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 68.40.

USDRUB

USD/JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USD/JPY has completed the ascending structure at 107.20. Today, the pair may fall towards 106.95 and then start another growth to reach 107.25, thus forming a new consolidation range. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and resume trading upwards with the target at 108.20.

USDJPY

USD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USD/CHF is still correcting towards 0.9450. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to break 0.9500 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9550.

USDCHF

AUD/USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.6915, AUD/USD is expected to consolidate around it. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 0.6780; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6975.

AUDUSD

BRENT

Brent continues forming the ascending wave towards 43.43. Later, the market may start a new correction towards with the first target at 41.65 and then resume growing to reach 42.50.

BRENT

XAU/USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 1762.50, Gold has completed the descending impulse towards 1747.50, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may correct to reach 1735.65; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 1800.00.

GOLD

BTC/USD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending structure at 9700.0, BTC/USD is expected to start a new decline to break 9255.00 and then continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 8800.00

BITCOIN

S&P 500

After returning to 3115.5, the Index is still consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 3060.5, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 2958.6; if to the upside at 3150.0 – form one more ascending structure with the target at 3235.5.

S&P 500

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex


Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Week Ahead – Market Recovery Under Threat?

The New Normal

This could be a sign of the fragility that remains in the markets but then, the NASDAQ hit new record highs in each of the prior four days and breached 10,000 for the first time ever. This comes before the end of what could be the worst quarter in a century for the economy. Incredible.

Speculation around new waves of coronavirus cases is going nowhere any time soon, as countries look to reopen their economies and save businesses and jobs. But next week also brings a plethora of interest rate decisions as well which means more rate cuts and more asset purchases. In other words, more fuel for the fire. The disconnect between the markets and the global economy isn’t going to improve any time soon.

Key Economic Releases and Events

Monday 15th June

Time (UK) Country Indicator Name Period
00:01 United Kingdom House Price Rightmove MM May
03:00 China (Mainland) Urban Investment (YTD)YY May
03:00 China (Mainland) Industrial Output YY May
03:00 China (Mainland) Retail Sales YY May
03:30 Singapore Unemployment Rate Final SA Q1
Indonesia Trade Balance (Bln of $) May

Tuesday 16th June

07:00 United Kingdom Claimant Count Unem Chng May
07:00 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Employment Change Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Apr
07:00 United Kingdom Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) Apr
09:30 Hong Kong Unemployment Rate May
10:00 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun
13:30 United States Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM May
13:30 United States Retail Sales MM May
13:30 United States Retail Ex Gas/Autos May
14:00 Russia Industrial Output May
14:15 United States Industrial Production MM May
14:15 United States Capacity Utilization SA May
14:15 United States Industrial Production YoY May
15:00 United States Business Inventories MM Apr
21:30 United States API weekly crude stocks 8 Jun, w/e
Japan JP BOJ Rate Decision 16 Jun

Wednesday 17th June

00:50 Japan Trade Balance Total Yen May
01:30 Singapore Non-Oil Exports MM May
01:30 Singapore Non-Oil Exports YY May
07:00 United Kingdom Core CPI YY May
07:00 United Kingdom CPI YY May
08:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate May
08:30 Sweden Total Employment May
10:00 Euro Zone Construction Output MM Apr
10:00 Euro Zone HICP Final MM May
10:00 Euro Zone HICP Final YY May
12:00 South Africa Retail Sales YY Mar
13:30 United States Building Permits: Number May
13:30 United States Housing Starts Number May
13:30 Canada CPI Inflation MM May
13:30 Canada CPI Inflation YY May
14:00 Russia GDP YY Quarterly Revised Q4
15:30 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 12 Jun, w/e
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based QQ, SA Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based YY, SA Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Prod Based, Ann Avg Q1
23:45 New Zealand GDP Exp Based QQ, SA Q1

Thursday 18th June

02:30 Australia Employment May
02:30 Australia Full Time Employment May
02:30 Australia Participation Rate May
02:30 Australia Unemployment Rate May
08:30 Switzerland SNB Policy Rate Q2
09:00 Norway Key Policy Rate 18 Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE Bank Rate Jun
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Prog Jun
12:00 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Gilts Jun
12:00 United Kingdom GB BOE QE Corp Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Hike Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Unchanged Jun
12:00 United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Cut Jun
13:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 8 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 8 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Continued Jobless Claims 1 Jun, w/e
13:30 United States Philly Fed Business Indx Jun
14:00 Russia Cbank Wkly Reserves 8 Jun, w/e
15:00 United States Leading Index Chg MM May
Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Jun
Indonesia Deposit Facility Rate Jun
Indonesia Lending Facility Rate Jun

Friday 19th June

00:30 Japan CPI, Core Nationwide YY May
00:30 Japan CPI, Overall Nationwide May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales MM May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales YY May
07:00 United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY May
11:30 Russia Central bank key rate Jun
13:30 Canada Retail Sales MM Apr
13:30 Canada Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Apr
Russia GDP YY Monthly May
Russia Retail Sales YY May
Russia Unemployment Rate May
Russia Real Wages YY Apr

Country

US

It seems a second wave of the coronavirus is hitting the US and could very well derail a lot of the reopening momentum that was taking place.  As states reopen and Americans return to pre-pandemic behavior, it is expected that a rise in new coronavirus cases would occur.

The White House is convinced they have yet to see any relationship between reopening and increased cases.  If hospitalizations continue to increase, you could see many individuals decide to remain a part of the stay-at-home economy.  If the virus spread intensifies, restrictions will be tightened and that will put a damper on the economic recovery prospects.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will follow his downbeat FOMC presser with his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee.  With little time between events, it is unlikely for Powell to deviate from Wednesday’s rate decision.  Traders will also pay close attention to the release of US retail sales, which is expected to show a rebound from the record low seen in April.

US Politics

Economic jitters and virus concerns will likely push the Trump administration into supporting a second round of stimulus payments for Americans.  Coronavirus relief talks were not supposed to happen until late July, but that should change given the recent jump in cases throughout the country.

On Friday, President Trump returns to the campaign trail in Oklahoma, his first live rally since March.

Democrats are eagerly awaiting former-VP Biden’s decision on his running mate.  Prior to COVID-19, the Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled in July, meaning we should have found out his decision by June.  Since the convention was delayed till August 17th, he will have more time to evaluate his candidates.  Biden will turn 78 a few weeks after the election, so his VP selection will be critical for many voters.

UK

The UK experienced its sharpest contraction on record in April, the first full month of the lockdown. The economy contracted by 20.4% at the start of the second quarter which is expected to be the worst month of the three.

Next week the Bank of England is expected to increase its bond buying in response to the pandemic, with £100-200 billion added to its quantitative easing program. This comes as government borrowing spikes to fund the crisis which would have otherwise risked pushing up borrowing costs.

Brexit

High level talks between Boris Johnson and Ursula Von Der Leyen are expected to take place next week, possibly as early as Monday, as the two sides look to reconcile the significant differences ahead of the 31 December transition expiry. As it stands, no deal is the default and the UK is expected to formally rule out an extension once again. We’ve seen this all before though and compromise tends to come late in the day. Still, business could very much do without this in a pandemic year.

Russia

The Central Bank of Russia is expected to cut interest rates by 50-100 basis points when it meets next week, from 5.5% where it currently stands. Like many others, the economy has been ravaged by the coronavirus crisis and contracted 12% in April, and May is not expected to be any better.

Switzerland

The SNB is not expected to cut interest rates next week, with the main policy rate remaining at -0.75%. The central bank is active in FX markets, with its holdings of foreign currencies recently rising above 800 billion Swiss francs – greater than the output of its economy – as it seeks to stop the currency rising too far as a result of safe haven flows. The central bank hasn’t set an official floor for the EURCHF pair – hopefully learning lessons of the past – but 1.05 is believed to represent the informal level.

Norway

The Norges Bank is not expected to cut interest rates next week, with the main policy rate currently sitting at 0%.

China

China Industrial Production (4.5%E) and Retail Sales (-2.0%E) on Monday. Poor number could see Asian markets weaken depending on Wall Street’s friday performance. Ongoing tensions with the US over HK, trade and Covid-19.

No other significant data this week.

Hong Kong

Protests have died down for now over the securities law. Possible resurgence this weekend. HSBC and Stan Chart under fire for backing China’s HK security law. No significant data this week.

India

Economy continues reopening but Covid-19 cases are spiking, markets negative. Standoff with China continues in the Himalayas but negotiations continue.

Australia

Australian stocks and Australian Dollar sold heavily on equity correction into the week’s end. Negative results on Friday for Wall Street should see that trend continue into the first part of the week. Australian markets are among most vulnerable to deep bull market correction. RBA minutes Tuesday. Will look for talk about negative interest rates.Potentially bullish for stocks. Unemployment Thursday (6.9% E) will drive intraday volatility. Otherwise what happens in the US will drive sentiment.

Japan

BOJ policy meeting Tuesday. Unchanged at -0.10% but looking out for more stimulus measures. Stocks positive. Tankan and Trade Balance Wednesday. Unlikely to impact markets. Markets will be led by Wall Street after sell-offs this week.

Market

Oil

Oil didn’t escape yesterday’s backlash, with crude falling more than 5% on apparent fears around rising case numbers. Again, we have to take this in the context of an asset class that has done rather well over the last couple of months. It’s been some rebound and I think some serious profit taking may have kicked in. It’s creeping higher again today but $40 may remain an upside barrier for WTI.

Gold

Gold has been range-bound for the last couple of months since it first tried to break $1,750 only to quickly run out of steam. It’s tried again a few times since, each as unsuccessful as the last, and it looks to be suffering the same fate again this time. It’s pushing a little higher again as it looks to capitalize on dollar weakness but we could see it run into difficulties once again, unless the greenback continues its journey south.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our Economic Calendar.

Craig Erlam, Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

USD, RUB, and Oil: Trader’s Treasure

Oil’s contribution

Until 2015, while the oil price was above $20 per barrel and kept rising sometimes to cosmic highs like $140, the USD/RUB has been trading stable at 30. Eventually, the WTI oil price lost more than half its value dropping from $100 to $40. Simultaneously, the USD/RUB gained more than 100% flying from 30 to 70. Interestingly enough, both the oil price and the USD/RUB are now where they were in 2015 right before the “sudden” change. In any case, that was the end of Russia’s “gold era” of sky-high oil prices, and hence the RUB got substantially marked down.

The recent Russia-Saudi oil price war made the USD/RUB take yet a higher baseline level. The most recent spike in the USD/RUB is exactly where the WTI dropped to $20 (and even below 0 in some markets). In fact, it is visible that the shape of the chart after 2015 (marked by the green vertical line) is almost perfectly inverted between the oil price and the USD/RUB.

That’s why, specifically with the USD/RUB, one of the main fundamental factors defining this currency pair is the oil price. The higher it is – the better for the oil-exporting Russian economy, and hence, the stronger (or at least more stable) the RUB may be. This comes as a big facilitator to predict the USD/RUB: just keep your hand on the pulse of the oil price, and you will know where the USD/RUB goes. For a trader, what can be more convenient?

Source: tradingview.com

Fundamental

The strategic outlook for the USD/RUB is an uptrend in any case. That is dictated by the supremacy of the American economy against the Russian – the latter simply cannot stand the competition and is doomed to lose, just as any developing economy with the currencies such as the MXN, BRL, and TRY. As we can see on the chart above, even after a bullish rally, an uptrend was rarely challenged – rather, tested, at times. For example, the years 2000-2015 can be taken as a period of a relative stability of the USD/RUB at or below the resistance of 30, with 2003-2008 showing a slow decline. That was ended with the mentioned plunge in the oil price that pushed the USD/RUB far beyond 30.

The weekly chart of USD/RUB below presents a volatile picture with an underlying upward trajectory. While the price may keep going down for a while, it is unlikely it would break the larger uptrend. More probably, it will come to test the uptrend’s bottom at 62-63 and will get back up to 69-70.

In any case, fundamentally speaking, there is little ground to expect the RUB to gain value against the USD in the long term. At maximum, it will stay stable where it is now. That should serve as an ideal background for trading that may rely on this guaranteed fundamentality. Hence, unless the oil price makes a substantial drop once again

This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments. 

The views and ideas shared in this article are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the article may be subject to change without prior notice. 

Trading Oil Right Now Is Crazy. Commodity Currencies as an Alternative. USD/CAD, USD/RUB and USD/MXN

The oil-market-crash saga continues and traders are trying to decide what’s the right move under these conditions. The thing is, it’s very tempting to buy oil for around 5 USD per barrel but it’s also a highly risky move and best left to traders who can handle exceptional volatility.

Some traders are jumping in on buying oil and see this as a bargain of a lifetime, but more reasonable traders are taking into account the ripple effect such a big crash can have on the market and they are eyeing other instruments on the market which are presenting trading opportunities thanks to this historic market crash.

If you haven’t figured out these instruments then you’re in luck, because we’re about to highlight the star assets which have showed the most potential since Monday. What we’ll focus on are commodity currencies, these are currencies of countries which heavily depend on oil export and hence are affected by the crash. So, the Russian Ruble, the Mexican Peso and the Canadian Dollar will take the spotlight today.

First let’s look at the USDCAD; the US and Canadian dollar pair has been weakening since the very beginning of 2020 and its bear run lasted until the middle of March. Most recently the pair saw a bearish correction, but that correction seems to be coming to an end. Why do we think so? The price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern and the neckline has already been broken. As long as the price stays above the neckline, sentiment remains positive.

Next let’s look at the USDMXN; the pair surged in the second half of February, and the situation with oil does not look terrible for the Mexican Peso. In the long term, the price created a head and shoulders pattern and the breakout of the neckline is a potentially positive sign for the Mexican currency.

Lastly, we’ve got the USDRUB; the upswing for this pair started in January. After a small correction in March, the pair is back on an uptrend, which means the Russian currency is weakening against the USD. Sentiment for the pair remains positive.

Some may say that the movement of emerging markets’ currencies is simply because of the effect the coronavirus lockdown has had on the world, and this does play a part, however these movements are magnified by the low prices of oil and the effect this has on export value. For example, as you see on the chart there’s a comparison between the USDMXN and the USDPLN. While the PLN is weaker than the USD, it’s not as weak as the MXN is against the USD, why? Because Mexico is a crude exporter and hence is losing money on its oil exports with such low prices, which is affecting its currency, while Poland which is a crude importer, is paying less for receiving oil, and hence its currency isn’t as affected.

Throwing new instruments in the mix is a great way to look at the market, especially in such volatile times in order to take advantage of the market without incurring unusually high risks.