The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 21st, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 8.93% on Monday. Following a 2.24% decline on Sunday, Bitcoin ended the day at $43,025.0.

A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high $47,327.0 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $48,127, Bitcoin tumbled to a midday intraday low $42,567.0.

Bitcoin fell through the day’s major support levels before briefly revising $44,000 levels.

Coming up against the third major support level at $44,416, however, Bitcoin slid back to end the day at sub-$44,000 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest return to $42,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need a sustained fall through the 62% FIB of $27,237 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a bearish day on Monday.

Chainlink slumped by 13.82% to lead the way down, with Bitcoin Cash SV (-12.60%) and Ripple’s XRP (-12.16%) close behind.

Things were not much better for Binance Coin (-10.91%), Cardano’s ADA (-8.87%), Crypto.com Coin (-10.28%), Ethereum (-10.58%), Litecoin (-10.55%), and Polkadot (-8.15%).

Early in the week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $2,122bn before sliding to a Tuesday low $1,863bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $1,870bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 41.89% before rising to a Monday high 42.76%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 42.38%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 2.51% to $41,943.0. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $43,028.0 to a low $41,935.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a bearish start to the day.

At the time of writing, Crypto.com Coin was down by 4.89% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the $44,306 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $46,046 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from $45,000 levels.

Barring a broad-based crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $47,000 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rebound, Bitcoin could test resistance at $50,000 levels before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $49,066.

Failure to move through the $44,306 pivot would bring the 38.2% FIB of $41,592 and the first major support level at $41,286 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off on the day, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$40,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $39,546.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 21st, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum slid by 10.58% on Monday. Following a 3.14% loss on Sunday, Ethereum ended the day at $2,976.48.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning intraday high $3,346.58 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of 23.6% FIB of $3,369 and the first major resistance level at $3,431, Ethereum slid to a mid-day intraday low $2,911.81.

Ethereum fell through day’s major support levels to end the day at sub-$3,000 levels.

Through the afternoon, Ethereum had broken back through the third major support level at $2,996 before easing back.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.67% to $2,956.40. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $2,977.52 before falling to a low $2,952.09.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the $3,078 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $3,245 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $3,200 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,513.

Failure to move through the $3,078 pivot would bring the first major support level at $2,810 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the second major support level at $2,644.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $2,810

Pivot Level: $3,078

First Major Resistance Level: $3,245

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 10.55% on Monday. Following a 3.08% decline on Sunday, Litecoin ended the day at $157.23.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $176.13 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the 23.6% FIB of $178 and the first major resistance level at $181, Litecoin slid to a mid-day intraday low $153.49.

The reversal saw Litecoin fall through the day’s major support levels.

Through the afternoon, Litecoin had broken back through the third major support level at $160 before falling back.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.90% to $155.81. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $157.86 before falling to a low $155.75.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $162 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $171 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from $165 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at the 23.6% FIB of $178 and $180. The second major resistance level sits at $185.

Failure to move through the $162 pivot would bring the first major support level at $148 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$140. The second major support level at $140 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $148

Pivot Level: $162

First Major Resistance Level: $171

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP tumbled by 12.16% on Monday. Following a 2.51% fall on Sunday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.92113.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to an early morning intraday high $1.04991 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0312, Ripple’s XRP slid to a mid-day intraday low $0.87506.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the day’s major support levels.

Steering clear of the 23.6% FIB of $0.8533, however, Ripple’s XRP briefly revisited $0.95 levels before easing back.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 1.96% to $0.9031. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall from an early morning high $0.92162 to a low $0.90310.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 210921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the $0.9487 pivot to bring the first major resistance level at $1.0223 into play. Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to move back through to $1.00 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Monday’s high $1.04991 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $1.1236. Ripple’s XRP would need plenty of support, however, to breakout from the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659.

Failure to move through $0.9487 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $0.8533 and the first major support level at $0.8475 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.80 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.7739.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.8475

Pivot Level: $0.9487

First Major resistance Level: $1.0223

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

S&P 500 Update: Anticipated Correction Unfolding. Low-4000s on Tap as Expected

In my last update, see here, I showed by using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) that the S&P500 (SPX) had most likely completed a significant-top (wave-iii of 3) and would be heading down to the low-4000s on a break below the August low at SPX4368. Nine days later and the index is already trading at SPX4345. Thus the anticipated correction is unfolding, and the low-4000s remain IMHO in tap with an ideal target of SPX4250+/-20. Allow me to explain below.

Figure 1. S&P500 daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators

Today’s break below the August low makes for a lower low

In my last update, I showed that “since the early May low, the SPX has been in an overlapping set of regular interval rallies, lasting about 20 TDs with 3-day corrections, all bottoming around the 18th of each month. Each low and high was a higher low and a higher high: a Bullish pattern. Hence, because the most recent string of down days is already five, a drop below the August low at SPX4368 (orange wave-4 at the green arrow) will confirm a (red) intermediate wave-iv to ideally SPX4030-4235 is underway. I prefer the upper end of the target zone because, in Bull markets, the downside often disappoints, and the upside surprises.

Well, we got the break lower. Thus we have a lower low, and now SPX4030-4235 must be respected as the logical target zone with SPX4250+/-20 as the preferred narrowed-down level to watch. My premium major market members were already ahead of the curve as I identified five waves down last week and anticipated SPX4400-4300 after a bounce (see my tweet here, for example).

The beauty of the EWP is that we know with certainty in an impulse, the 3rd wave up is followed by a 4th wave correction down and then another 5th wave higher. Intermediate wave-iii of major-3 has topped, and wave-iv is now underway, which means wave-v of major-3 is still pending.

For now, I anticipate the SPX to bottom out soon (green minor wave-a in Figure 1 above) at ideally SPX4310-4335, and at a minimum, provide us with a strong bounce (green minor wave-b) before heading lower again. However, there are by then already enough waves in place to call the correction complete: three waves (a,b,c). Besides, I expect wave-v of wave-3 to complete around SPX4800-5000. Thus it is soon time to look for higher price, be it for a bounce (to possibly as high as SPX4600) or a new rally.

Bottom line: the correction I anticipated nine days ago is unfolding. I am now looking for a bottom soon in the SPX4310-4335 region before expecting a significant bounce at a minimum, possibly already a new rally. Namely, ideally, this correction should last longer and reach SPX4250+/-20, but there are soon enough waves in place to consider it complete. And in a Bull market, it is prudent to respect the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Break Trendline

The S&P 500 has fallen hard during the trading session on Monday, breaking below a major trendline. Furthermore, the market is below the 50 day EMA, something that catches a lot of people’s attention. With this being the case, it is very likely that the 4350 level is an area where we have seen a little bit of support. At this point though, it looks as if the market is trying to break down rather significantly, and if that is going to be the case, then I might be a buyer of puts. I will not get crazy to the short side, because quite frankly it is just so difficult to imagine a scenario where I am comfortable shorting a market that is so highly manipulated. At this point, the market is struggling overall, and I would be cautious about anything the Federal Reserve says or does.

S&P 500 Video 21.09.21

The 4300 level being broken probably opens even more stringent selling, but again, I would not be short of this market, rather I would be a buyer of puts. If we turn around to take out the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, that would be a very bullish sign, and eventually make this a “false breakout”, something that causes a lot of trouble for short sellers.

Regardless, this is a market that I think will eventually find a reason to go higher, if for no other reason than the Federal Reserve stepping in and jawboning the market, or perhaps getting involved in the bond market. Yes, there are a lot of concerns out there when it comes to credit situations in China, but that being said Wall Street always seems to have a narrative that it hangs on to to start buying again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Bounce From $22

Silver markets have fallen rather hard during the course of the trading session on Monday but found enough support at the $22 level to turn things around and show signs of life again. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility in this area, due to the fact that the $22 level is so important from a longer-term standpoint. Quite frankly, if we break down below the $22 level, it is likely that we could see massive selling pressure jump into this market, perhaps reaching down towards the $20 level.

SILVER Video 21.09.21

To the upside, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick it is likely that we could go looking towards the $23 level. That is an area that has offered support in the past, so it should in theory at least offer resistance going forward. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be very noisy, and you need to pay close attention to the US dollar as it tends to move in a negative correlation to silver.

The market has been drifting lower for a while, and even though we have bounced a bit during the trading session on Monday, it is likely that we are going to see a little bit of a bounce in order to find more selling pressure. I would be a seller of signs of exhaustion to the upside, but I also recognize that at the US dollar suddenly gets sold off, that could provide a little bit of “rocket fuel” to send silver much higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Pull Back Towards 50 Day EMA

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday, to reach down towards the 50 day EMA. If we can break above the highs of the trading session, it is very likely that we continue to see the momentum to the upside. At that point, the market is likely to test the $74 level, possibly even the $75 level given enough time.

To the downside, the 50 day EMA and the downtrend line both offer a significant amount of support, so there is no way that I can justify shorting this market until we break down below the $67.50 level underneath, which had been a major support level.

Crude Oil Video 21.09.21

Brent

Brent markets also fell initially during the trading session but have turned around to show signs of life again. Because of this, I think that the buyers will continue to jump into this market to pick up any signs of value. For whatever reason, traders still believe that there is going to be a huge move into the energy sector, and at this point in time it is very unlikely to see a massive selloff. At this point, I think we probably go looking towards the $77.50 level over the next couple of days but pay close attention to the risk appetite out there. That of course could have a major influence on where we go next. As long as we stay above the $70 level, it is likely that there will be plenty of buyers in this market to take advantage of “cheap oil.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin Price Follows Stocks, Buckles Under Pressure

The bitcoin price is under pressure and it is dragging down the broader cryptocurrency market with it. With a dominance rate of 42.3%, bitcoin and most of the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading in the red. Bitcoin has moved further away from the $50,000 threshold and has fallen below $44,000.

Investors are treating bitcoin similar to stocks as they abandon risk assets amid China-related fears. Bitcoin is supposed to serve as a hedge to investors as a store-of-value asset but has been buckling under pressure instead.

Short Term, Long Term

Nonetheless, bitcoin is still one of the top-performing asset classes over short-term and long-term time horizons. Year-to-date, the bitcoin price has advanced more than 50% compared to the S&P 500’s 18% gains. In the past 12 months, bitcoin is up over 300%. And in the past decade, bitcoin’s returns have trounced those of rival asset gold as well as stocks and bonds, as pointed out by Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors.

Bitcoin Adoption

The bitcoin price sell-off is taking place even as the adoption of the leading cryptocurrency is on the rise. El Salvador, which recently made bitcoin legal tender in the Central American nation, has taken the opportunity during the cryptocurrency market downturn to buy more bitcoins, bolstering its holdings in the process.

President Nayib Bukele has revealed that the country has purchased 150 additional bitcoins, which at the current price suggests they doled out $6.6 million. The latest investment brings El Salvador’s tally to 700 bitcoins.

President Bukele went on to say, “They can never beat you if you buy the dips.” He is taking a page out of the book of MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who similarly has been on a buying spree. Saylor recently argued that bitcoin is a “superior store of value” to gold. He pointed to bitcoin’s returns over the past 12-months of more than 300% compared to gold’s 10% drop in the same period.

Despite the bitcoin market downturn, bullish investors are fully expecting the leading cryptocurrency to finish the year on a high note. One of the more ambitious forecasts is for the bitcoin price to hit $100,000 by the end of the year. Based on bitcoin’s history, however, it would not be out of the question.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Pull Back Towards the $5.00

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday to slice through the $5.00 level, but as you can see you, the market has turned around to show signs of support. Previously, the market had shot straight up in the air, but quite frankly the market has gotten far too ahead of itself. The $4.80 level underneath should be supportive, so if we were to turn around a break down below that level, then it is likely that we go much lower.

NATGAS Video 21.09.21

The market breaking down below that level opens up the possibility of $4.50 being targeted, as well as the 50 day EMA underneath there. Ultimately, the market would have a massive “floor” in it at the $4.00 level. That being said, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then we could go looking towards the $5.50 level above.

The European Union is hurting for natural gas at the moment, so that has a lot to do with what we are seeing. That being said, there has also been a serious slowdown of refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico due to the recent hurricane. There is also a tropical storm floating around now, so at this point in time it is a bit of a “perfect storm” going forward. Nonetheless, chasing the trade is a great way to lose money so you need to see this market prove itself to the upside, or find value at much lower levels as mentioned previously.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Continue to Look at $1750 as Support

Gold markets have initially fallen during the course of the trading session on Monday but found enough support just below the $1750 level to show signs of support. This is an area that has been important more than once, so do not be surprised at all to see a little bit of a bounce. Nonetheless, it certainly looks as if there is much more interest in shorting gold than going long. That being said, a nasty candlestick like we had seen on Thursday is very rarely seen in a vacuum.

Gold Price Predictions Video 21.09.21

If we break down below the lows of the Monday candlestick, then it is likely that we could go looking towards the $1680 level. The $1680 level has been a massive support level more than once, and therefore I think it makes for a good target. Rallies at this point in time still looks suspicious, at least until we can take out the 200 day EMA to the upside, and quite frankly we would need to see the US dollar get hammered. Until then, it is very unlikely that the gold markets can be bought.

Fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion will be the way that I get involved in this market, as I do believe that the gold markets continue to show a favorability to the downside. Nonetheless, if we do take out the 200 day EMA, then I would have to believe that the market goes looking towards the $1835 level. Either way, keep an eye on the US Dollar Index chart, because it does tend to move in a negative correlation to what price does when it comes to the yellow metal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Gives Up Early Gains

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but gave back gains near the ¥110 level. The market continues to look at the ¥110 level as an area of importance, so it should not surprise you at all to see that we have rolled over again. At this point in time, the ¥109 level underneath continues to be an area of support, right along with the ¥110.75 offering a significant amount of resistance. With the ¥110 level in the middle being a bit of a magnet for price, it looks as if nothing has really happened quite yet to discern where we are going longer term.

USD/JPY Video 21.09.21

That being said, it is worth noting that the market is currently looking at the 200 day EMA underneath as significant support, although it should also be noted that the 50 day EMA has gone sideways for quite some time, meaning that we are still stuck in the same meaningless range. Eventually we will break out, but until then it simply going to be a short-term range bound type of situation. With this being the case, the market is going to continue to be very noisy, so you will have to be somewhat nimble to take advantage of a well-defined range.

I do believe that it is only a matter of time before we get a bigger move, probably coinciding with the overall risk appetite of the markets. The pair does tend to favor the Japanese yen it in times of concern, so that of course could be something worth paying attention to as the Chinese credit situation continues to become headline news.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Slices Through 200 Day EMA

The British pound has gotten hammered during the trading session on Monday, as there was a general “risk off” attitude around the world. Credit contagion issues in China are starting to take front and center with the headlines, and one would not be surprised at all to see the US dollar be a big winner as traders try to get back into bonds for safety. Furthermore, there will be a flood of money coming out of emerging markets, so that in and of itself will help the greenback.

GBP/USD Video 21.09.21

The fact that we sliced through the 200 day EMA and the 1.37 level at the same time suggests there is quite a bit of significant selling pressure, and therefore we could go looking towards the 1.36 handle. The 1.36 handle has been crucial for keeping the market somewhat afloat, and if we were to break down through that level, then I think it opens up a new flood of selling as it will almost certainly kick off a lot of stop losses. At that point, I would not surprise me at all to see this entire trend change again to reach much lower.

Alternately, if we turn around and recapture the 200 day EMA then I would not be surprised to see this market go looking towards the 50 day EMA above, an area that has offered a significant amount of resistance in the past. In other words, we are either going to break down or we are going to bounce back into the same consolidation. That being said, you probably need to pay attention to the fact that we have been drifting lower in general over the last several months.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Testing ¥150

The British pound has broken down significantly during the course of the trading session on Monday as it was a “risk off” type of scenario. Ultimately, this is a market that looks as if it is trying to press lower to break through a significant support. The ¥150 level extends support all the way down to the ¥149 level, and if we break down below there then it really starts to break down quite drastically.

GBP/JPY Video 21.09.21

The size of the candlestick certainly suggests that we have quite a bit of negativity here, and therefore I think it is probably only a matter of time before we break through the bottom. If we do, that is a sign that we are going to go much lower, as it could very well open up a move down to the ¥145 level, maybe even the ¥140 level over the longer term.

On the other hand, if we took out the candlestick from the Monday session to the upside, that could be a very bullish sign. Nonetheless, I think the one thing you can probably count on is a lot of noisy behavior, so I think that if we rally from here, it is very likely that it is time to start fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. Keep in mind that the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, and therefore you need to pay close attention to risk appetite in general. As the Americans are starting to lift risk appetite higher, I suspect that this will be more or less a “fade the rallies” type of market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Descend

The Euro has fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday, to reach down towards the 1.17 level. This is an area that would attract a certain amount of attention, but quite frankly I think the main reason that we have bounced at all is due to the pair being oversold at this point. Because of this, I think this is a market that you will be looking for rallies to sell into or break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the session on Monday to signify there is even more selling coming.

EUR/USD Video 21.09.21

The US dollar of course is thought of as a safety currency, so this suggests that we are going to see a lot of noisy behavior of the next couple of days, as people worry about the credit situation in China. If that begins to become an even bigger issue, the US dollar will spike as a result. As far as Europe is concerned, the energy shortage on the continent at the moment is going to work against the currency itself, but I also recognize that we probably have somewhat limited downside anyway. The 1.16 level is massive support, so I think that comes into the picture as a potential “floor the market” even if we do see a lot of selling. To the upside, if we can take out the 1.19 level, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign but that is not something that we will be doing anytime soon, as it would take a Herculean effort to get above there.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues Volatility

The Australian dollar continues to be very noisy as we have seen a lot of risk on/risk off type of behavior around the world. The Chinese credit issues are the latest headlines have people paying close attention to, and as a result is not a huge surprise to see that there would be a lot of selling of the Aussie dollar as it is so highly levered to the Chinese economy. After all, Australia has a huge export situation when it comes to China, with hard commodities such as iron, gold, and the like. With this being the case, the market is likely to see a major correlation to what happens on the Chinese mainland and this currency pair.

AUD/USD Video 21.09.21

Furthermore, the US dollar is considered to be a “safety currency”, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the market’s favorite when there are times of uncertainty. To the downside, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, that probably opens up a bigger move towards the 0.71 level. To the upside, if we turn around and take out the inverted hammer from the Friday session, then we can start to think about the 50 day EMA.

Regardless, this is going to be a very noisy and messy situation, so I think you need to be cautious about your position size, at least not until we get a bit of clarity going forward. Because of this, we need to be very cautious about how much money you put to work right away, but ultimately this is a market that I do think probably will make an impulsive move sooner or later, that we can start following.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Pfizer Close to Long-Term Buying Opportunity

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BioNTech SE (BNTX) released positive data on their COVID-19 vaccine for ages 5 to 11 on Monday but the stock is losing ground with the broad market, adding to a five-week slide that’s already relinquished more than 16%.  The decline is roughly tracking the slow rollover of U.S. Delta infections and another slowdown in daily vaccinations. Last week’s FDA advisory meeting didn’t help, with the group declining to recommend broad-based booster shots.

Pulling Back from August Breakout

The pharmaceutical giant has gained 17% so far in 2021 despite the latest downturn, with a good portion of selling pressure generated by a rotation out of pandemic plays. However, the last six months have proved how difficult it will be to transition from pandemic to endemic, especially with billions around the world still unvaccinated. Taken together with Pfizer’s bullish breakout pattern, the current decline should offer a low risk buying opportunity.

Approval for ages 5 to 11 will open eligibility to more than 50 million new vaccinations in the EU and USA. As the business partners noted on Monday, “Pfizer and BioNTech plan to share these data with the FDA, European Medicines Agency (EMA) and other regulators as soon as possible. For the United States, the companies expect to include the data in a near-term submission for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) as they continue to accumulate the safety and efficacy data required to file for full FDA approval in this age group.”

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus is surprisingly lukewarm, with a ‘Hold’ rating based upon 4 ‘Buy’, 15 ‘Hold’, and 1 ‘Underweight’ recommendation. No analysts are recommending that shareholders close positions. Price targets currently range from a low of $39 to a Street-high $61 while the stock is set to open Monday’s session on top of the median $44 target. While this placement indicates that Pfizer is fairly-valued, it’s also likely that analysts are underestimating the vaccine’s long-term revenue potential.

Pfizer topped out at 44.05 in 2018 and sold off to a six-year low during 2020’s pandemic decline. A volatile recovery finally reached the prior peak in August 2021, setting off an immediate breakout that posted an all-time high at 51.86 less than three weeks later. The pullback into September is now approaching a zone of strong support near 40, raising odds for a buy-the-dip wave that confirms the breakout and sets the stage for strong 2022 upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication. 

Commodity Supercycle Sets New Record Highs – Where Next For Prices?

Commodities are currently on an unstoppable run with everything from the metals, energies to agriculture markets setting new record highs as the supercycle firmly gathers pace.

Last week, a wide number of commodities blasted through all-time highs.

Aluminium prices soared to 13-year highs. Nickel prices hit 7-year highs and Uranium prices surged to 9-year highs – surpassing a record 6-year high, set only a week ago.

The bullish momentum also split over into other commodities with Natural Gas rallying to a 7-year high. Sugar prices hitting 4-year highs and Lithium prices climbing to an all-time record high.

In total 27 Commodities ranging from the metals, energies to soft commodities have tallied up double to triple digit gains within the in the past year.

Uranium, Natural Gas and Lithium prices are up 219%, 240% and 215%, respectively.

But the best performing commodity, so far this year, is Crude Oil.

Crude Oil prices have quadrupled this year and are setting new record highs almost every month. Crude Oil prices are currently up over 287% from their 2020 lows.

There are plenty of reasons why commodities are on the move, but the key driver is rapidly surging global inflation, tightening supply, logistical bottlenecks and booming demand across many highly essential commodities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Say Bye-Bye to Major Supports. We May Not See Those Levels for a While

And it happened! The bears were talking about this for a long time and it finally happened; a bearish correction. The price broke the long-term up trendline on the SP500 and is aiming lower. The target for the drop is still far away, so it might be nice to buckle up.

The DAX also dropped like a rock after the breakout of the long-term up trendline and the neckline of the triple top formation. The next target: 14100 points.

Although indices are sliding, gold is not climbing higher. A stronger dollar is definitely not helping.

The GBPUSD came back inside the falling wedge pattern. That’s definitely negative.

The CADJPY is aiming for the 38,2% Fibonacci to test it as a crucial support.

The EURNZD is inside a small sideways trend. A breakout from it, will show us a direction.

The EURJPY has failed to create the inverse head and shoulders pattern and dropped lower.

The USDJPY bounced from the upper line of the triangle and brought us a sell signal with the target being on the lower line of this pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Still Waiting On Silver

Below is a chart (source) of SLV prices for the past week:

Silver prices gapped significantly lower at the open on both Thursday and Friday. The combined loss for the two days is almost six percent.

It’s true that two days price action doesn’t tell the whole story, but contrary to what usually happens in fairy tales, this story isn’t likely to end in similar fashion. The phrase “happily ever after” does not apply.

Nor can it be said with any conviction that there is a positive side to silver’s recent price action. No matter how optimistic silver investors are, false hopes are still “false”.

Below is a two-year chart of SLV:

While it is not drawn on the chart, there is an uptrend line of support which dates back to March 2020 and which was decisively broken earlier this summer in June. At that time, silver prices gapped down sharply, too; and again in August.

At this point silver prices are down more than 25 percent from their highs last August and appear to be headed lower. It isn’t unreasonable to expect SLV to land somewhere around $18 and spot silver at $19-19.25 – at least temporarily.

IS SILVER REALLY CHEAP?

In May 2021, I published an article titled “Are Silver Prices Really Cheap; And Does It Matter?” At the time, spot silver prices were approximately $27 oz.

The February Reddit false alarm was in the rear view mirror, and the silver price seemed to be consolidating at about ten percent below its high from last August which was in the vicinity of $30 oz…

“On an inflation-adjusted basis, most of the price history for silver is still under $20 oz. Even on an inflation-adjusted basis, silver is still more expensive than almost any other time in the past one hundred years.”

Silver back below $20 oz. is like returning home after a fun vacation. Familiar territory, but not much to get excited about.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

Bitcoin and Ethereum – Weekly Technical Analysis – September 20th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 2.61% in the week ending 19th September. Partially reversing an 11.09% slide from the week prior, Bitcoin ended the week at $47,239.0.

A bearish start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to a Monday intraweek low $43,444.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $41,877, Bitcoin rallied to a Saturday intraweek high $48,819.0.

Falling short of the 23.6% FIB of $50,473 and the first major resistance level at $51,545, Bitcoin slid back to sub-$47,000 levels before ending the week at $47,200 levels.

4 days in the red that included a 2.34% fall on Monday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid the $46,501 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $49,557 and the 23.6% FIB of $50,473.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from last week’s high $48,819.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the 23.6% FIB would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $52,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $51,876.

A fall through the $46,501 pivot would bring the first major support level at $44,182 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of the 38.2% FIB of $41,592. The second major support level sits at $41,126.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.29% to $47,103.0. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to an early Monday high $47,327.0 before falling to a low $46,792.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

BTCUSD 200921 Daily Chart

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 2.21% in the week ending 20th September. Following a 13.87% slide from the previous week, Ethereum ended the week at $3,328.59.

A mixed start to the week saw Ethereum fall to a Monday intraweek low $3,111.14 before making a move.

While steering clear of the first major support level at $3,077, Ethereum fell through the 23.6% FIB of $3,369.

Finding Tuesday support, however, Ethereum rallied to a Thursday intraweek high $3,675.92 before sliding back into the red.

Ethereum broke back through the 23.6% FIB and also broke through the first major resistance level at $3,642.00 before falling back to sub-$3,320 levels.

4-days in the red that included a 4.73% slide on Friday delivered the downside in the week.

For the week ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 and the $3,372 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $3,633.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from $3,550 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s high $3,675.92 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $4,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,937.

Failure to move through the 23.6% FIB and the $3,372 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3,068.

Barring an extended sell-off in the week, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$3,000 support levels. The second major support level sits at $2,807.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.54% to $3,310.78. A choppy start to the week saw Ethereum rise to an early Monday high $3,346.58 before falling to a low $3,259.03.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

ETHUSD 200921 Daily Chart

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 20th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum fell by 3.14% on Sunday. Reversing a 1.07% gain from Saturday, Ethereum ended the week down by 2.21% to $3,328.59.

A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to a mid-morning intraday high $3,457.22 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $3,530, Ethereum slid to a late intraday low $3,278.00.

Ethereum fell through the 23.6% FIB of $3,369 and the first major support level at $3,356.

Finding support at the second major support level at $3,276, Ethereum ended the day at $3,300 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 1.33% to $3,284.31. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum rise to an early morning high $3,346.58 before falling to a low $3,283.01.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 200921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to move through the $3,355 pivot and the 23.6% FIB to bring the first major resistance level at $3,431 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $3,400 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $3,457.22 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $3,600 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $3,534.

Failure to move through the $3,355 pivot would bring the first major support level at $3,252 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$3,100 levels. The second major support level at $3,175 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $3,252

Pivot Level: $3,355

First Major Resistance Level: $3,431

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $3,369

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $2,740

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1,725

Litecoin

Litecoin slid by 3.08% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.77% gain from Saturday, Litecoin ended the week down by 3.94% to $175.76.

A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning intraday high $181.72 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $186, Litecoin slid to a late intraday low $173.17.

The reversal saw Litecoin fall through the first major support level at $178 and the 23.6% FIB of $178.

Finding support at the second major support level at $174, however, Litecoin avoided sub-$170 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.95% to $172.34. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $176.13 before sliding to a low $171.76.

Litecoin tested the first major support level at $172 early on.

LTCUSD 200921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to move through the $177 pivot to bring the 23.6% FIB of $178 and the first major resistance level at $181 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from the 23.6% FIB.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and Sunday’s high $181.72 would likely cap the upside.

In the event of another breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $190. The second major resistance level sits at $185.

Failure to move through the $177 pivot would bring the first major support level at $172 back into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$165. The second major support level at $168 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $172

Pivot Level: $177

First Major Resistance Level: $181

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $178

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $223

62% FIB Retracement Level: $296

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP fell by 2.51% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.84% gain from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended the week down by 6.41% to $1.04805.

A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise to a mid-morning intraday high $1.08399 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $1.0946, Ripple’s XRP slid to a late intraday low $1.04075.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 and the first major support level at $1.0569.

Steering clear of the second major support level at $1.0379, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $1.04 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was down by 3.16% to $1.01497. A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP slide from an early morning high $1.40991 to a low $1.00001.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $1.0312 and briefly through the second major support level at $1.0144.

XRPUSD 200921 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP would need to move through the $1.0576 pivot to bring the 38.2% FIB of $1.0659 and the first major resistance level at $1.0744 into play. Support would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to move back through the first major support level to $1.05 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap the upside.

In the event of a broad-based crypto rally, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance level at $1.1008.

Failure to move back through the first major support level at $1.0312 would bring the second major support level and sub-$1.00 levels back into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of the third major support level at $0.9711.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1.0312

Pivot Level: $1.0576

First Major resistance Level: $1.0744

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.8533

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $1.0659

62% FIB Retracement Level: $1.4096

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob