The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – September 26th, 2020

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slipped by 0.41% on Friday. Following a 4.75% rally on Thursday, Bitcoin ended the day at $10,708.0.

It was a bearish start to the day. Bitcoin fell from an early morning intraday high $10,774.0 to an early afternoon intraday low $10,580.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,370, Bitcoin recovered to match the intraday high $10,774.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,990, however, Bitcoin eased back to sub-$10,750 and into the red.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Cardano’s ADA led the way, surging by 17.41%.

Chainlink and Ripple’s XRP also found strong support, with the pair rising by 8.67% and by 3.73% respectively.

Binance Coin (+0.41%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.79%), Crypto.com Coin (+1.59%), Ethereum (+0.85%), Litecoin (+2.38%), and Polkadot (+1.23%) also found support.

Bitcoin Cash SV joined Bitcoin in the red, however, falling by 1.96%.

In the current week, the crypto total market rose to a Monday high $334.04bn before sliding to a Wednesday low $300.97bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $323.67bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance fell to a Monday low 60.89% before rising to a Wednesday high 62.31%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 61.07%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.07% to $10,700.4. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning high $10,731.0 before falling to a low $10,693.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Binance Coin (-0.34%), Bitcoin Cash ABC (-0.15%), Ethereum (-0.06%), and Polkadot (-0.14%) saw red early on.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Cardano’s ADA was up by 1.73% to lead the way.

BTC/USD 26/09/20 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the $10,687 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $10,795.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Bitcoin to break out from Friday’s high $10,744.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at $11,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level at $10,881 would likely cap any upside, however.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $10,687 pivot would bring the first major support level at $10,601 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$10,500 levels. The second major support level sits at $10,493.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – September 26th, 2020

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 0.85% on Friday. Following on from an 8.89% jump on Thursday, Ethereum ended the day at $352.11.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall to a late morning intraday low $337.63 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $330.63, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $358.12.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $360.39, Ethereum eased back to wrap up the day at $352 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.19% to $352.78. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $351.31 before rising to a high $353.34.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETH/USD 26/09/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the $349.29 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $360.94.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from Friday’s high $358.12.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $349.29 pivot would bring the first major support level at $340.45 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$330 levels. The second major support level sits at $328.80.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $340.45

Pivot Level: $349.29

First Major Resistance Level: $360.94

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $257

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $367

62% FIB Retracement Level: $543

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.38% on Friday. Following a 4.66% rally on Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $46.02.

It was a bearish start to the day. Litecoin fell to a late morning intraday low $44.00 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $43.28, Litecoin rallied to a late morning intraday high $46.55.

The rally saw Litecoin break through the first major resistance level at $45.92.

In the 2nd half of the day, Litecoin slipped back to sub-$45.50 levels before finding late support.

Litecoin broke back through the first major resistance level to wrap up the day at $46 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was up by 0.43% to $46.22. A bullish start to the day saw Litecoin rise from an early morning low $46.02 to a high $46.23.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTC/USD 26/09/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $45.52 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $47.05.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s high $46.55.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $45.52 pivot level would bring the first major support level at $44.50 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off on the day, however, Litecoin should steer clear of sub-$43 levels. The second major support level sits at $42.97.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $44.50

Pivot Level: $45.52

First Major Resistance Level: $47.05

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $54

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $71

62% FIB Retracement Level: $100

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 3.73% on Friday. Following on from a 5.23% rally on Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.24168.

Tracking the broader market, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late morning intraday low $0.2299 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2231, Ripple’s XRP rallied to a late intraday high $0.24470.

Ripple’s XRP broke through the first major resistance level at $0.2389 and the second major resistance level at $0.2448.

A late pullback, however, saw Ripple’s XRP fall back through the second major resistance level to end the day a $0.24168.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.42% to $0.24269. A bullish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP rise from an early morning low $0.24174 to a high $0.24269.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRP/USD 26/09/20 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2388 pivot to support a run at the first major resistance level at $0.2476.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Friday’s high $0.2447.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2388 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2328 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.23 levels and the second major support level at $0.2240.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2329

Pivot Level: $0.2388

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2476

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3638

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.4800

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6678

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Find Footing Late in the Week

The S&P 500 has shown itself to be rather resilient during the week, even though we sold off quite drastically. It looks as if the 3200 level is offering support, an area that has been previous resistance so at this point even though it has been rather ugly, it has been a simple pullback to support. The question now is whether or not we can hang on to the 3200 level? If we do not, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 3100 level which is where the 50 week EMA sits. Underneath there, the 3000 level is worth paying attention to as well, because not only is it structurally important in the past, but it is also a large, round, psychologically significant figure.

S&P 500 Video 28.09.20

A lot of the selling may have been due to US dollar strengthening, I think at this point it is worth paying attention to the fact that we had formed an inverted hammer during the previous week, so it certainly has a lot of resistance above it. Chopping back and forth between now and the election would not be completely out of the realm of possibility, as traders are bit concerned about what happens next. The VIX has settled down a bit, so that could help the markets as well, as we are starting to see the pullback decelerate at the very least. While I am not bullish yet, I think that opportunities will present themselves to the long side if you are patient enough. We may have a week or two of choppy going nowhere, but eventually a decision will be made.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Collapsed

Silver markets have fallen apart to the downside, overreacting as per usual. As the candlestick is rather brutal looking, the reality is that the market is still bullish. We had a parabolic move to the upside so a resumption of that trend would be asking quite a bit of effort to continue. I think at this point it is likely that we will see a bit of volatility, but I certainly think that there are plenty of buyers underneath. After all, the market went straight up in the air.

SILVER Video 28.09.20

One of the biggest killers a silver is the strength of the US dollar that we have seen, and if that continues to be the case silver will continue to crater lower. Longer-term though, I do believe that it is a market that you want to own, mainly because central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy and of course central banks are also buying precious metals. While they are not necessarily step in to buy silver, it does tend to react based upon gold but with more volatility.

I believe that this market could drop as low as $20 over the next couple of weeks, but on shorter-term charts, mainly the daily timeframe, it looks like we might get a short-term bounce. Longer-term, I am more than willing to buy-and-hold silver and recognize that eventually we will explode to the upside yet again because all of the reasons that have driven silver higher are still out there. This was simple overbought conditions getting pushed over by the US dollar strengthening. Markets do not typically go straight up in the air and not pull back drastically, so this should not be a huge surprise that we have seen this.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Print Red Candle

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell during the course of the week but did recover slightly towards the weekend. At this point, the market looks as if the $40 level is creating a lot of interest in both directions, so therefore we are coiling up like a spring. Given enough time, I anticipate an impulsive candlestick that will lead the way. If we get a weekly close above the 50 week EMA, then it is likely that we go looking towards the $50 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the green candlestick from the previous week, it is likely that we go much lower.

WTI Oil Video 28.09.20

Brent

Brent markets initially fell during the course of the week as well but continue to see a lot of interest at the $40 level, and therefore I think it is only a matter of time before we break down below there. Having said that, the weekly candlestick does look a little bit more supportive over here than it does in the WTI market, so we may get a short-term bounce. That bounce will more than likely get sold into until we get a weekly close above the 50 week EMA. Pay attention to the US dollar, if it strengthens that will more than likely play havoc with the pricing power of crude oil overall. One thing that is worth paying attention to also is the fact that there is a serious lack of demand and there are a lot of concerns when it comes to global economic strength.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continue to Power Higher

Natural gas markets have initially dipped during the week but found plenty of support near the $2.50 level to turn around and rally yet again. This is a market that has been very bullish as of late, and it should continue to be as the colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere will drive up demand for natural gas. Furthermore, we have seen a lot of bankruptcies when it comes to this industry, so supply will start to dwindle a bit. Do not get me wrong though, because the market is going to be supplied with plenty of natural gas eventually, as prices rise.

NATGAS Video 28.09.20

With this, I believe that we have a short-term opportunity to pick up natural gas and make profits to the upside, as it is a cyclical and seasonal trade. If we can break above the $3.00 level, that could open up another $0.50, possibly even $1.00 to the upside over the next couple of months. To the downside, if we break down below the $2.50 level then we probably have to reset the entire situation and take a look at everything again. As a general rule, it is not a good idea to short natural gas heading into the winter months in America and the European Union, and this year looks like it is going to be more of the same. This does not mean that we cannot break down a bit occasionally, but it is possible that people will look at that as an opportunity to pick up value.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Have a Rough Week

Gold markets have broken down significantly during the course of the week, slicing through the $1900 level. By doing so, the market is likely to go looking towards even more substantial support at the $1800 level, an area that has previously been resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that is still in an uptrend, but still finds plenty of support near the $1800 level from what I can see. The 50 week EMA is racing towards that area as well, so I think that the convergence could cause some issues. The gold markets are definitely pressing higher over the longer term, based upon central bank buying and of course lots appear around the world.

Gold Price Predictions Video 28.09.20

One of the biggest killers of gold recently has been the US dollar rallying, but both of these can rally over the longer term given enough time. Despite what you may have heard, both markets can move in the same direction. The entire 1980s were a prime example that. That being the case, I do believe that both of these markets, the US dollar and gold will go higher over the longer term based upon what I am seeing. However, even if the US dollar does not rise, that will only help gold. I think buying dips will continue to be the way most people look at this, and therefore I am simply going to wait more of a pullback in order to take advantage of “cheap gold”, as we have certainly seen a huge change in the overall attitude of the market during the last couple of years.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/CAD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.3450 In Sight

USD/CAD Video 25.09.20.

Canadian Dollar Remains Under Pressure

USD/CAD is trying to develop upside momentum above the nearest resistance level at 1.3400 as the U.S. dollar continues to gain ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index managed to get above the significant resistance level at 94.65 and continues its upside move. If the U.S. Dollar Index moves towards the 95 level, USD/CAD will get additional support.

WTI oil continues to trade near the $40 level but fails to provide any support to Canadian dollar.

Today, U.S. reported that Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.4% which was significantly lower than the analyst consensus of 1.5%. While this news is not inspiring, the U.S. dollar gained additional ground as traders increased their purchases of safe haven currencies.

At this point, the upside trend of the U.S. dollar looks strong, and the Canadian dollar will need some positive catalysts to have a chance to rebound against the American currency.

There are no notable reports scheduled to be released in Canada in the upcoming days so USD/CAD will remain in the hands of general market sentiment and data from U.S. If the flight from risk continues, the U.S. dollar will have a chance to gain more ground against the Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

usd cad september 25 2020

USD to CAD managed to get above the resistance at 1.3400 and is moving towards the next resistance level at 1.3450.

If the test of the resistance at 1.3450 is successful, USD to CAD will head towards the major resistance level at 1.3500. This level served as strong support for USD to CAD back in June – July so I’d expect a lot of interest at 1.3500.

In case USD to CAD manages to settle above 1.3500, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.3610.

On the support side, a move below 1.3400 will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3330.

If USD to CAD gets below the support at 1.3330, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at the 50 EMA at 1.3265.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Continue to Put Traders to Sleep

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has done nothing again during the day on Friday, as we continue to dance around the $40 level. Quite frankly, if you are a short-term scalper, this is a great market for you. Otherwise, you are simply waiting for some type of impulsive candlestick to tell you which direction to trade. We had seen that on Monday but have not had any follow-through. In other words, nobody knows what they are doing, and it seems like we have quite a bit of balance right here at the $40 handle. All things being equal though, it should be noted that the most recent high was lower than the one before it, so one would have to assume that the sellers are trying to at least push things lower.

Crude Oil Video 28.09.20

Brent

Brent markets of course with the same, as we have been relatively sideways, but I suppose you could have at least the idea of slight bullishness for the last 24 hours, but the 50 day EMA sitting above offers resistance. Ultimately, I think that this is a market that will continue to see a lot of choppiness, but it is not until we break above the $45 level that I am comfortable going long. Short-term scalps to the downside will probably continue to be the way this market behaves. Furthermore, pay attention to the US dollar because of it starts to strengthen rather drastically, that will weigh upon the oil markets given enough time.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Showing Signs of Stability

The S&P 500 has shown itself to be rather resilient over the last couple of trading sessions, and the 3200 level now looks to be significant support. Looking at this chart, you can see that the market has bounced a bit during the day, after forming a very neutral candlestick on Thursday. The 200 day EMA sits at the 3132 level, so that is also an area that you should be paying attention to for potential support. Longer-term, it is very likely that this market will continue to go higher, but the question is whether or not it is going to take up right away? I do not think so. I think we probably get a bit of grinding back and forth, which quite frankly is good because that builds confidence in the market.

S&P 500 Video 28.09.20

One of the biggest problems we have going forward as the fact that we are heading into the election, and there are a lot of concerns about the uncertainty of that situation. Beyond that, we also have the coronavirus figures to continue to cause issues, so I am not overly excited about putting a ton of money into the market right now. Buying short-term dips makes sense, as long as we can stay above the 3200 level but keep in mind that it might be a bit difficult to break above the 50 day EMA at 3314. If we do, then we have the ability to go looking towards the 3400 level, but I anticipate this is going to be more choppy behavior for the next several weeks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Continue to Try and Build Base

Silver markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the $22.50 level before finding a bit of support. Ultimately, the market is likely to see a big fight here, and silver of course is in a bullish trend. Looking at the candlestick from the Thursday session, it is a nice-looking hammer, and a break above the top of the hammer does suggest that perhaps the market is ready to go higher. To the downside, the $22 level offers support and if we were to break down below there, then it is likely that the market could go down towards the 200 day EMA.

SILVER Video 28.09.20

The 50 day EMA above at the $25 level could cause a bit of resistance, as it is not only a technical signal that people will pay attention to, it is also a large, round, psychologically significant figure to boot. I think that this all comes down to the US dollar, and whether or not it is strengthening. The US dollar has shown itself to be rather resilient and strong over the last week or so, and that has punished silver, and to a lesser extent gold. That being the case, commodities all have taken a significant hit and the question is whether or not the US dollar can strengthen?

The biggest problem that we have here is that there are a lot of moving pieces, but it certainly looks as if the to cause a significant amount of issues, and of course should have you keep your position size relatively small. A bounce from here is likely, but I do not know that it is the long term “buy-and-hold” type. If we can break above the 50 day EMA then I would be much more convinced.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Choppy

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session after initially gapping lower on Friday, testing the $2.80 level for support, and the $2.90 level as resistance. It looks as if we are ready to go and attacking the $3.00 level given enough time, so therefore the uptrend is very much intact. I believe that pullbacks will continue to offer buying opportunities, especially as we are in the cycle way and seasonally bullish time of year, as we are trading the November contract. As demand increases, price rises, or at least that is the way it is supposed to work.

NATGAS Video 28.09.20

There is a gap underneath that extends all the way down to roughly $2.40 that needs to be paid attention to, so I do think that it is almost impossible to short this market at this point in time. Do not get me wrong, I know that there will be plenty of supply out there given enough time, but this time a year is almost always bullish for the market and it is worth noting that the natural gas markets rallied in the face of a very strong US dollar, something that most other commodities have not been able to do.

With all of that in mind, I am a “buy on the dips” type of trader and I think that if we can break above the $3.00 level, we will probably initially go looking towards the $3.20 level, and then possibly as high as $3.50 over the longer term. That being said, look for value and do not simply chase the trade.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to Pressure Downside

Gold markets have broken down towards the bottom of the candlestick from the hammer on Thursday. At this point, if we can break down below the $1850 level it is likely that we continue to go down towards the $1800 level. The $1800 level was an area of importance previously, so I do think that there would be a lot of buyers there. With this, I would be a buyer of the large quantities in that area if we get some type of bounce, because it is the first time, we will have retested the previous resistance.

Gold Price Predictions Video 28.09.20

Looking at this chart, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, but I do think that longer-term gold is something that will appreciate in value. The 200 day EMA is sitting at the $1754 level and racing towards the $1800 level as well, as the convergence of both a technical and structural support should be an excellent opportunity. Having said that, the market was to break down below the 200 day EMA, then the market could fall apart.

This is all about the US dollar, so make sure you pay attention to it, as the strengthening US dollar could continue to cause major issues with commodities. Quite frankly, the most important indicator that you can use for this market is the US Dollar Index, and trading in the opposite direction, lease for the time being. To the upside, if we were to clear the 50 day EMA which is closer to the $1917 level, gold should take off again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Oil Little Changed Ahead Of The Weekend

Oil Video 25.09.20.

Oil Stays Near The $40 Level Despite Virus Worries And Strong U.S. Dollar

Oil continues to trade near the $40 level amid worsening situation with coronavirus in Europe and strong U.S. dollar.

Despite the above-mentioned negative catalysts, oil has not developed any significant downside momentum. The recent decrease in inventory levels together with the increase in gasoline demand provided significant support to oil which offsets the negative catalysts, at least for now.

In addition, traders do not believe that European governments will follow Israel’s example and impose second lockdowns. There is a broad consensus that Europe cannot afford to impose severe restrictions for the second time in a row so the market does not price in this scenario.

Interestingly, oil ignored the recent strength of the U.S. dollar. Typically, strong dollar is bearish for commodities but the market got so excited about the rebounding U.S. gasoline demand that oil managed to stay near the $40 level despite the dollar’s best week in many months.

Recent U.S. Economic Reports Show That Economy May Be Slowing Down

On Thursday, U.S. reported that Initial Jobless Claims increased from 866,000 to 870,000 while analysts expected that Initial Jobless Claims would drop to 840,000. This report may be the first sign that the easy part of the job market recovery is done, and the economy struggles to make another step forward.

Today, U.S. Durable Goods Orders report indicated that Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.4% month-over-month in August compared to analyst consensus of 1.2%.

Durable Goods Orders show producers’ desire to invest in business which may be slowing down after the initial strong rebound.

These reports are certainly uncomfortable for oil bulls. If U.S. lawmakers fail to reach consensus on the next coronavirus aid package, the economic rebound may slow down and put pressure on oil demand.

As I noted above, oil bulls are encouraged by the recent increase in U.S. gasoline demand. However, the recent upside trend in gasoline consumption may find itself under pressure if economic activity stalls.

In my opinion, the upcoming economic reports present some danger for oil bulls as oil may find it hard to stay near the $40 level if additional signs of a slowdown emerge.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US Dollar Bounces for The Week

The US dollar initially fell a bit during the week, but then turned around to break above the ¥105 level for the week. At this point, the market is likely to see continued upward pressure, at least in the short term. I believe that the ¥106 level above continues offer resistance, so fading that area makes quite a bit of sense. Ultimately, I do think that this pair breaks down not necessarily because I am bearish on the US dollar, just that I recognize that the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate “safety currency”, and therefore this is the one place that I am looking to short the greenback. If the greenback starts to sell off in general, it is likely that will only exacerbate this move as well.

USD/JPY Video 28.09.20

If you look above the ¥106 level, there are several wicks that suggest selling pressure. At this point, I am looking for an opportunity to short this pair closer to the ¥106 level, and then possibly even the ¥107 level. Longer-term, I anticipate that the market is going to go looking towards the ¥104 level, possibly even the ¥102 level. If fear enters the market hand over fist again, it is likely that this pair will sell off the less it is all about the US dollar, then it will grind higher. Nonetheless, the US dollar will gain less against the Japanese yen then it will other currency such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swedish krona, etc.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Continues to Drift Lower

The British pound has fallen again during the week, as we continue to see a lot of noise out there when it comes to Brexit and a whole host of other issues. This is a market that continues to be very noisy and of course focused on Brexit, but it is also focused on the fact that the United States dollar continues to show signs of strength. After all, the US dollar picking up strength in a time where there is so much uncertainty is not necessarily a novel idea, and therefore it should not be a huge surprise. At this point, I look at the 1.30 level as a major resistance barrier that needs help to get crossed above.

GBP/USD Video 28.09.20

Looking at the underneath, it is likely that the market goes looking towards the 1.25 level. At this point time, the market is likely to make a bigger decision, and at that point it will have to decide whether or not we are going to completely fall apart. There are a lot of concerns out there globally, so it does make sense that we may make an attempt to do that. However, you should also keep in mind that one day you could wake up after some Brexit rumor or headline has come out and see the British pound break above that 1.30 level just as easily. Because of this, it is going to be very difficult to trade this market and therefore you need to keep your position size relatively small. All things being equal, this is a market that is going to remain very difficult but when you look at the pullback that we have seen, it certainly looks like several of the others in the past.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British Pound Looking for Support

The British pound has fallen significantly during the week, showing signs of weakness. Ultimately, we did see a bit of a bounce later in the week, so that does suggest that perhaps the British pound is going to fight against the Japanese yen. It is worth noting that the previous weekly candlestick was a bit of an inverted hammer, and that does suggest that we could have a bit of back-and-forth trading in this area and could be trying to form some type of short-term range. It is also worth noting that there is a lot of support underneath its upon previous action, so it is likely that we could see an attempt that a bounce, if we can break above the weekly candlestick from the previous week, the market is likely to go looking towards the ¥140 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the candlestick for this previous week, we more than likely go looking towards the ¥132 level.

GBP/JPY Video 28.09.20

The biggest problem you are going to have trading this market is the fact that the British pound is going to be thrown around by rumors and headlines involving Brexit, and of course this pair does tend to move back and forth based upon risk appetite in general. If risk appetite starts to fall off, that weighs upon this market, and if we get some type of negative Brexit headline, that could be a bit of a “one-two punch” for this pair. On the other hand, if we suddenly get a huge “risk on move”, that could send this pair higher. Keep your position size small as the most important take away.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Gets Crushed

The Euro has broken through the 1.17 level, an area that had been supportive in the past and perhaps we are looking at a scenario where we had just gotten far too in too short of an area, and as we have been looking at this chart over the last several weeks, it has been showing signs of a lack of momentum. Whether or not we can continue the uptrend is a completely different question, and right now I do not think it happens in the short term. This candlestick of course shows a sudden change in direction, and I think we need to test lower areas in order to find buyers again, especially as we are concerned about the European Union with its coronavirus numbers and the economic numbers simply do not look well.

EUR/USD Video 28.09.20

Rallies at this point in time will be looked at with suspicion, until we can get a weekly close above the 1.17 level and even then, I will have to take a look at the overall macroeconomic conditions. Overall, I believe that the 1.15 level will offer support, but if we were to break down below there then the next support level is closer to the 1.1350 level. All things being equal, I think this is a pair that does need to go lower but that does not mean that we are going to be falling apart right away. The pair tends to be choppy and noisy most of the time, so therefore I would not expect anything different from this pair. As we go into the weekend, I think we have clearly seen a “shot across the bow.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Daily Forecast – Support At $22.30 Showed Its Strength

Silver Video 25.09.20.

Strong U.S. Dollar Continues To Put Pressure On Silver

Silver failed to continue yesterday’s rebound as the U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies and put pressure on precious metals.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to get to the test of the major resistance level at 94.65. If the U.S. Dollar Index moves above this level, it will gain more upside momentum which will be bearish for silver.

Meanwhile, gold continues its attempts to settle below $1850. Gold’s RSI is still in the moderate territory so there is more room to gain downside momentum if the U.S. dollar moves higher. If this happens, silver will find itself under increased pressure.

Gold/silver ratio has found support at 80.40 and managed to get above the 81 level. Yesterday, gold/silver ratio tested the 85 level but pulled back. If gold/silver ratio moves closer to 85, silver will test the recent lows at $21.65.

The recent U.S. economic reports including Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders were disappointing which increased pressure on silver. Industrial demand is a very important part of the total demand for silver so silver is sensitive to the general state of the economy.

Technical Analysis

silver september 25 2020

Silver faced resistance at $23.30 and pulled back closer to the support at $22.30. However, the support at $22.30 showed its strength, and silver rebounded closer to the resistance level at $22.90.

If silver manages to settle above $22.90, it will head towards the next resistance level at $23.30. This level has just been tested, and silver will likely need additional upside catalysts to continue its rebound above $23.30.

In case silver gets above the resistance at $23.30, it will move towards the 50 EMA at $24.90 although it may face additional resistance at lower levels along the way.

On the support side, silver needs to settle below the support at $22.30 to gain more downside momentum. In this scenario, silver will quickly get to the test of the next support level at the recent lows at $21.65.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Breaks Down

The Australian dollar has broken down significantly during the week, reaching down towards the crucial 0.70 level. That is an area that has been important more than once, and as a result it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of volatility in choppiness in this area. The question now is whether or not the Australian dollar can hold the support level? I do not necessarily know that I would be a buyer here based upon this level alone, and the length of the candlestick suggests that we probably see more selling pressure eventually. On a daily close below the 0.70 level, one would have to think that the market is going to drop even further.

AUD/USD Video 28.09.20

The 50 week EMA is currently near the 0.6850 level, so I would be paying attention to that as a potential target on a breakdown. In the short term, it would not surprise me at all to see this market bounce a bit, only to offer selling opportunities later. Do not get me wrong, if you want to buy the US dollar, there are much easier places to do it than the AUD/USD pair. Honestly, this pair falls you are probably better off buying the USD/CAD pair instead of this one as it is also the “anti-commodity trade” without the strength of China backing the non-US currency.

This is not to say that you cannot make money shorting the Australian dollar, just that you will have an easier time in other markets. The Australian dollar is most certainly overbought for the last several months, but that does not necessarily mean you should be shorting it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.