Crypto.Com Capital’s Newest Partner Calls it ‘The Most Ambitious Company in Web3’

The ever-expanding world of crypto continues to drive more and more companies to make the space more approachable as well as more advanced, and Crypto.com is contributing to that with the help of its newest partner.

Crypto.com Welcomes…

Jon Russel, as their newest partner for the company’s investment arm Crypto.com Capital. After working as a technical journalist for companies such as TechCrunch and The Ken, Russel intends on diverting his focus towards web3 and aims to have it touch as many people as possible.

Upon the announcement of his decision of taking up the role as a partner at the company, Russel explained that according to him “Crypto.com is the most ambitious company in web3″. This is the exact reason why he joined Crypto.com in particular despite being offered multiple opportunities before.

He further stated:

The Crypto.com Capital fund brings a very unique advantage to help the world’s best web3 founders and startups to realise their potential and I can’t wait to play my part.” (sic)

This holds true for a lot of reasons as Crypto.com Capital has managed to provide investment to more than 20 different start-ups in less than a year since its launch in March 2021.

The investments which have varied between $1 million to $10 million in Series A stages along with $1 million for seed rounds have helped companies like Efinity, Genies, Matter Labs, and many more to gain an advantage of this investment to further the cause of web3.

Efinity even won the 6th slot at the Polkadot Parachain auctions in December.

An interesting observation has been that Crypto.com Capital’s aim of advancing web3 isn’t limited just to Decentralized Finance (DeFi). The 20 projects it has invested in include ventures from metaverse, blockchain gaming, and NFTs amongst DeFi.

But Crypto.com isn’t the only company looking to make the most of this developing market. Just recently even FTX announced their new Venture Capital arm ‘FTX Ventures’ which is being launched with $2 billion in funds and plans on investing in similar web3 startups.

How Is CRO Reacting To This?

At the time of this report, Crypto.com’s token CRO displayed no immediate reaction to this news. Expect no sudden bullishness in the near future as the present bearishness might take a while to subside given CRO is in an active squeeze release.

Going forward, $0.492 will continue to be a critical resistance but sustained support from investors and external factors might help CRO recover its 49% drop from its all-time high soon.

CRO is yet to break its $0.492 resistance

Tennis Australia Goes Metaverse as the Australian Open Gets Underway

While Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market have struggled at the turn of the year, NFTs and the Metaverse continue to flourish.

In recent months, sport has taken far more interest in both NFTs and the Metaverse. Earlier this month, news hit the wires of the Australian Open (AO) planning the release of 6,776 Art Ball NFTs on the The AO Art Ball NFT marketplace. The 6,776 AO Art Ball NFTs were reportedly sold out in just a matter of minutes of release.

Since then, the Australian Open has been in the news for very different reasons. Over the weekend, news hit the wires of world #1 and 9 times AO Champion Djokovic’s deportation.

For the Australian Open and tennis fans, a shift in focus was needed.

The Australian Open and the Metaverse

For the first time in major tennis sporting history, a major tournament has partnered with a virtual reality platform. This morning, the 2022 Australian Open got underway, with the AO launching its highly anticipated metaverse tournament on Decentraland (MANA). The AO plans to replicate Melbourne Park and allow tennis fans from around the world to access the tennis tournament.

As part of the AO’s fan engagement program, there will reportedly be player drop-ins and footage from more than 300 cameras around Melbourne Park.

This morning, AOmetaverse hit Twitter, giving fans a look at what’s to come in this year’s tournament.

Metaverse Linked Price Predictions for 2022

According to a report published late last year, SAND and MANA are two leading projects in the Metaverse space. Both tokens were amongst the best performers last year. The markets are expecting more of the same as interest in the Metaverse grows. Morgan Stanley analysts reportedly see the Metaverse potentially growing to an $8tn market.

At the time of writing, MANA was down by 0.10% to $3.117. A move back through a current month high $3.44 would bring December’s high $4.82 and November’s ATH $5.91 into play. While the broader crypto market has been under pressure, pegging MANA back, AOmetaverse will likely put MANA back on the investor radar after last year’s breakout.

MANAUSD 170122

3 Trending (Twitter) Altcoins You Probably Never Heard of

The broader cryptocurrency market has performed well over the weekend, with Bitcoin now trading above the $43k mark while Ether could breach $3,400 soon.

What are Altcoins?

Altcoins is short for alternative coins. This is a term used to describe all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. The term was derived from the fact that the coins are alternatives to Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

Altcoins are an important component of the cryptocurrency market. There are several types of altcoins, including meme coins, stablecoins and more.

Lesser-Know Altcoins that are Trending

Twitter is perhaps the number one social media platform for cryptocurrency projects and their followers. The crypto community regularly talks about cryptocurrency projects on Twitter more than other major social media platforms.

These lesser-known altcoins are currently trending on Twitter.

Marlin (POND)

Marlin (POND) is an open protocol designed to provide a high-performance programmable network infrastructure for Web3 and the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. The project aims to ensure that applications secured via the blockchain don’t differ in terms of performance from the apps on Web 2.0.

POND, the native token of the Marlin Network, is used for operating validator nodes via staking, voting on governance proposals and several other functions.

Marlin is currently trending following the conclusion of the Flashbots event last week. Supragya Raj from Marlin gave a good speech during the event regarding Maximal Extractable Value (MEV).

POND has been performing excellently over the past few hours. At press time, POND is trading at $0.07296, up by more than 10% in the last 24 hours. The RSI of 61 shows that POND is currently heading into the oversold region if the rally is sustained. POND is also trading above its 50-day moving average of 0.05646.

POND is trading above its 50-day moving average. Source: Coingecko

SpookySwap (BOO)

SpookySwap is an automated market-making (AMM) decentralized exchange (DEX) that is hosted on the Fantom network. The team said it focuses on building a strong foundation via its BOOK token as a governance token. It is also working on having a built-in bridge, built-in limit orders and user-centered service.

SpookySwap is one of the top trending altcoins at the moment, thanks to its latest milestone. Earlier today, the total value locked (TVL) on the SpookySwap ecosystem topped $1.8 billion for the first time ever.

As a result of this latest milestone, BOO has been rallying over the past few hours. BOO is currently trading at $36.50 per token, up by more than 17% over the past 24 hours, making it one of the top performers in the market.

BOO’s technical indicators show that the coin is currently recovering from a recent slump. BOO is trading below its 50-day moving average of $37. The RSI of 45 shows that BOO is getting out of its oversold region and could rally higher soon.

BOO’s RSI is below 50. Source: Coingecko

Metis (METIS)

Metis is building Metis Rollup, an easy-to-use, highly scalable, low-cost, and fully functional Layer 2 framework. The L2 framework is designed to support the application and business migration from Web2 to Web3.

It is a scalable protocol that currently supports numerous use cases, including DeFi platforms, nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, open-source developer communities, freelancer communities, crowdfunding, yield farming, and more.

METIS has been trending over the past few hours, thanks to the latest milestone achieved by the team. The Metis Token team announced that it had reached a TVL of $500 million, roughly eight weeks after launching its Andromeda Layer 2 network.

METIS’s MACD line is above the neutral zone. Source: Coingecko

METIS is trading at $300, up by 7% in the last 24 hours. The METIS/USD daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency is currently bullish. METIS’s RSI of 61 shows that it could soon reach the overbought region. METIS is trading above its 50-day moving average of $215, indicating a bullish trend.

Relative Strength Chart Reveals Nasdaq Is Losing Its 20 Years of Leadership

After the burst of the dot-com bubble in early 2000 as shown in the monthly ratio chart (IXIC/SPX) between Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq was underperformed S&P 500 until the swing low formed in 2002. Refer to the relative strength chart (IXIC/SPX) below:

Relative Strength Between Nasdaq & S&P 500

Despite IXIC/SPX is a ratio chart, Wyckoff price structure together with Wyckoff events can be observed throughout. After the selling climax (SC) formed in April 2001 as reflected in the huge bearish price spread with acceleration to the downside, an automatic rally stopped the downtrend and into a trading range.

After a secondary test in September 2002, a sign of strength rally (SOS), which is classified as the best rally within the trading range broke above the resistance followed by a shallow backup action (BU) trading range until 2009. This is a classical Wyckoff accumulation structure pending the start of the markup phase, which is the beginning of the uptrend.

Nasdaq composite started to lead the S&P 500 since 2002 as it formed a higher high and a higher low subsequently.

The uptrend manifested after a breakout from the backup trading range in 2009 and accelerated in 2014-2018. After the COVID-19’s bottom in March 2020, there was a potential final speculative run up forming a buying climax (BC) in February 2021, barely touch the swing high formed in 2000, which acted as a resistance.

Next, a change of character, which is the largest down wave (as highlighted in orange) since the bottom in 2002 kicked in followed by an inability to rally up (as highlighted in blue) between May to November 2021, suggested more weakness ahead in Nasdaq Composite against S&P 500.

Should the relative strength chart (IXIC/SPX) break below the support (as annotated in horizontal brown line), it is likely to head down to test the lower support (as annotated in horizontal green line).

This could be a market rotation scenario as shown in my video last week or it could mean Nasdaq will drop more than S&P 500 should a market correction begin. Either way, Nasdaq Composite is expected to underperform S&P 500 and losing its 20-years of leadership since 2002 based on the relative chart (IXIC/SPX).

Price Target for IXIC/SPX with Point & Figure Chart

As relative strength chart is still unfolding and the support is not broken yet, it is still possible for the price to bounce up to higher target. Point and Figure (P&F) chart is a tool in price action trading with Wyckoff Method as traders can project the price target based on the causes built according to the Wyckoff’s Law – Cause and Effect. Let’s examine if there is enough fuel in the tank for the price to go higher in this relative strength chart.

As shown in the point and figure chart above, the original segment (in blue) was used in the calculation. The price targets based on the blue segment, which is the accumulation structure, are 3.5-3.75. The next segment (in orange) based on the re-accumulation structure, works out to be 3.45-3.65, which acted as a confirming count to the original segment.

The price targets from these two segments coincide with the resistance at 3.6 as formed by the previous high during the internet dot-com bubble in 2000. The fuel in the tank for the upside price target has been consumed as confirmed by the pullback in February 2021 once it hit the price targets.

It is crucial to pay attention to the next price action to confirm if the support will be broken with more weakness ahead or another trading range will be formed from here on to build up more causes for the next up move.

Predictions For Gold 2022

It is worth taking a look back at some earlier predictions to help put things in perspective.

EXAMPLE NO. 1

Gold Forecast $6000, And Gold Mining Analysis Through Visualization January 23, 2012

Quote: “If the current gold bull market was to follow the timing and extent of the 70s bull market, the gold price would reach $6000 before 2014.”

The price of gold on the day the article appeared in print was $1679 oz. In March 2014 the price of gold was down to $1382 oz. and by year end 2014 gold was priced at $1181 oz.

How far off base can a price prediction be? Not only did gold not reach the target price, it went in the opposite direction – beginning that same month – and proceeded to decline by thirty percent over the next two years, ending at $1205.00 per ounce on December 31, 2014.

The problem is not the plausibility of $6000.00 gold. It is both plausible and possible. However, the prediction was specifically time-oriented and horrendously misjudged in terms of timing and direction.

EXAMPLE NO. 2

JPMorgan Forecasts Gold $1,800 By Mid 2013 February 1, 2013

Quote: “JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said gold will rise to $1,800 an ounce by the middle of 2013, with the mining industry in South Africa “in crisis,” according to Bloomberg.“

The price of gold on the date the headline appeared was $1667.00 per ounce. Five months later on June 29, 2013, the price of gold was $1233.00 per ounce.

The call for $1800.00 gold was a ‘safe’ prediction. Only an eight percent increase from the existing (then) level of $1667.00 would have resulted in a gold price of $1800.00.

But, as in the previous example, the price went south with a vengeance. In this case, gold’s price dropped twenty-six percent in five short months.

FINANCIAL MARKETS ARE THE NEW CASINOS

The time periods which we consider and focus on with respect to analysis and investing – be it gold, stocks, real estate, etc. – have become increasingly short-term. In fact, the financial markets seem to be more characteristic of casino-type activity. Investing has become speculation.

Also the volatility is exponentially greater. At times it seems more like a crap-shoot than fundamental investing, with products such as leveraged ETFs, options on futures, and more.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not against speculating. Speculators serve the markets well and provide liquidity which otherwise might not be there. Their role is critical to the orderly function of the markets. Things would always be worse without speculators. But the nature of the financial markets has changed radically and investors need to recognize that fact.

The single most serious factor of concern with regard to orderly functioning of today’s financial markets is systemic risk. This is true on a world-wide basis and no country or market is immune.

With these things in mind, can anyone really make predictions with any degree of reliability or accuracy? I think not. And the predictions that are made seem to be either too traditionally conservative given the explosive – and implosive – nature of the markets; or they tend to be just plain ridiculous.

CURRENT UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR GOLD

The average monthly closing price for gold in July 2020 was $1971 oz. which was followed the next month by an intraday peak of $2058 oz.

Due to the additional loss in US dollar purchasing power since that time, the inflation-adjusted gold price peak for August 2020 is now $2114 oz.

With gold at $1820 oz. the current upside potential is limited to approximately $290 oz., ($2114 oz. – $1820 oz), or sixteen percent. (see The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top)

On the other hand, with near-term potential downside for gold at $1375-1400 oz. (see Gold Has Lots Of Potential Downside), the risk reward ratio is unfavorable for bets on the long side.

SUGGESTIONS FOR 2022

A suggestion to the gold ‘swamis’: rather than more predictions, how about new resolutions? Some possibilities might include:

  1. Resolve to view gold for what it is – real money; not an investment.
  2. Study and learn the history of gold as money.
  3. Stop expecting gold to be the “next big thing”.
  4. Scale back your unrealistic expectations.
    Have a fabulous 2022!

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

The Week Ahead – Earnings, Central Bank Chatter and a Busy Economic Calendar in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 63 stats in focus in the week ending 21st January. In the week prior, 44 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Key stats include Philly FED Manufacturing and initial jobless claims due out on Thursday.

Other stats include NY Empire State Manufacturing and housing sector data. These stats should have a muted impact on the markets, however.

In the week ending 14th January, the Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.58% to 95.165.

For the EUR:

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will be the key stats early in the week.

Finalized December inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone in the week will also draw interest.

At the end of the week, however, expect Eurozone consumer confidence figures to also influence. The markets will be looking for the effects of rising consumer prices on sentiment.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Thursday, with ECB President Lagarde scheduled to speak on Friday.

For the week, the EUR rose by 0.44% to $1.1411.

For the Pound:

It’s an important week ahead on the economic calendar.

On Tuesday, claimant counts and the UK’s unemployment rate will be in focus.

Inflation and retail sales figures due out on Wednesday and Thursday will also be key, however.

The stats through the week should give the BoE the numbers it needs to decide what’s next on the policy front.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Gov. Bailey is scheduled to speak on Wednesday.

The Pound rose by 0.64% to end the week at $1.3675.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Inflation figures will be in focus on Tuesday, ahead of retail sales and employment figures on Friday.

With the markets expecting a hawkish BoC, this week’s stats could seal the fate of the Loonie near-term.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.72% to C$1.2552 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

Westpac consumer sentiment and employment figures will be in focus. While consumer sentiment is important, expect the employment numbers to be key. Another sharp pickup in hiring could force the RBA to reconsider its current stance on cash rates.

The Aussie Dollar rose by 0.36% to $0.7207.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Business confidence figures for the 4th quarter get things started on Tuesday. We have seen business confidence wane recently, so the markets will be expecting some weak numbers.

Of greater significance will be electronic card retail sales figures due out on Wednesday.

At the end of the week, Business PMI numbers will also draw interest, however.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.37% to $0.6804.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead. Key stats are limited to trade data on Thursday and inflation figures on Friday. We don’t expect the numbers to move the dial, however.

On Tuesday, the BoJ also delivers its first monetary policy decision of the year. No surprises are expected…

The Japanese Yen rallied by 1.19% to ¥114.190 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a big week, with 4th quarter GDP numbers due out on Monday. Expect the numbers to set the tone for the week. Disappointing growth figures could bring into question market optimism towards the global economic outlook.

Other stats on Monday include fixed asset investments, industrial production, and retail sales figures. Barring dire numbers, however, these should have a limited impact on the markets.

On the monetary policy front, the PBoC will also be setting loan prime rates on Thursday.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.39% to CNY6.3528 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Nothing new to consider in the week ahead, with China and Capitol Hill and Russia continuing to be the key areas of focus.

COVID-19

COVID-19 news updates will remain a key area focus. Risk aversion could hit should a new strain of the virus appear in a developed economy.

Corporate Earnings

It’s also corporate earnings season, with a number of big names releasing results that could test support for riskier assets.

S&P 500 Trying to Hang On for The Week

The S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the course of the week as we continue to hang on to a major uptrend line. The uptrend line of course is something that a lot of traders will be paying attention to, and it is obvious that we have bounced from there during the course of the week. The neutral candlestick that we have formed, with a slightly negative body, does not necessarily mean anything one way or the other at the moment. Having said that, the market looks as if it is trying to continue grinding higher, and as long as we can stay above that uptrend line it is very likely that we will eventually go looking towards the highs. The 4800 level above has been significant resistance.

S&P 500 Video 17.01.22

A breakdown below the bottom of the weekly candlestick would of course be very negative, and that could open up fresh selling to reach down towards the 4500 level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, as traders are trying to assess whether or not the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy is going to continue to cause problems. At this point, it looks like we are hanging on by our bigger nails, so there is at least hope at this point in time. I would not be surprised to see more consolidation than anything else over the next couple of weeks, as we try to figure out what it is we are going to do. If we do break down, I would be a buyer of puts but I would not get aggressively short of this market. I would also probably pay close attention to the 4500 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Markets Exploded to the Upside for the Week

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied during the course of the week to break above the $83 level. We are well above the $80 level as well and breaking above there during the course of the week is a very bullish sign. At this point in time, markets are more than likely going to get a little bit of a pullback, but that pullback should end up being a buying opportunity. After all, crude oil continues to strengthen due to the fact that omicron is not as serious as people had been concerned, and now it looks like OPEC+ continues to struggle to pump out enough oil. With this being the case, every time we get a bit of a pullback it more than likely will not be in a nice buying opportunity.

WTI Oil Video 17.01.22

Brent

Brent markets have a course rallied as well, reaching towards the $86 level. We are a little bit overextended at this point, so what am hoping to see is some type of pullback that I can take advantage of. It is possible that I may have to wait for a little bit of value. The $80 level should be supportive, but if we break to a fresh, new high, then you cannot argue with that, and it is likely that the market could go higher to reach towards the $90 level above. Furthermore, you should also pay attention to the US dollar, because if it continues to fall then it is likely that oil will probably continue to get a bit of a boost due to that as well.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Bounces After Initial Selloff

The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the course of the trading session on Friday to reach down towards the 4600 level. The 4600 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, which does offer a certain amount of support. After that, the 4500 level offers support from a psychology standpoint, and of course the fact that it is an area that we have seen buyers at previously. If we break down below that level, then I might be a buyer of puts, but I do not short this market regardless of what happens due to the fact that the Federal Reserve will step in sooner or later.

S&P 500 Video 17.01.22

Speaking of the Federal Reserve, the market is likely trying to price in those four interest-rate hikes, that a lot of people have been spooked by. This obviously has heard a lot of the technology highflyers, but the S&P 500 is full of more than just tech. Because of this, it is probably going to outperform other indices such as the NASDAQ, but at this point in time it is likely that we will see a lot of back and forth chopping behavior, but as long as we can hang onto the uptrend line, it is very likely that we will continue to find buyers.

The market is likely to continue to struggle to go higher, but I do not necessarily see some type of meltdown as being imminent. Because of this, position sizing will be crucial, but it is more than likely going to continue to be a situation where buyers will return on dips in the short term at the very least.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Markets Continue to Grind Higher

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied again during the course of the trading session as we have seen the market reach above the $83.50 level. That being said, the market is likely to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at the end of the day it is still very bullish. I would love to see some type of pullback in order to find some type of value as we have been so strong for so long. Nonetheless, there is no way you can short this market and I would be very interested in it near the $80 level if we get some type of opportunity. Otherwise, if we break the $85.50 level, we are simply going to continue going higher.

Crude Oil Video 17.01.22

Brent

Brent markets have also rallied significantly to test the $86 level, an area that of course will attract a certain amount of attention, but at the end of the day this is a market that continues to find buyers on dips and that is exactly how I want to get involved, on dips. The market will continue to see a lot of value hunting out there, and I believe that the $80 level is going to be a major support level that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. That being said, I like the idea of finding value any time we get an opportunity, and therefore you need to pay close attention to any type of support after a pullback. All things being equal, this is a market that I do like and I think as long as the US dollar continues to have trouble, it is likely that will only be yet another tailwind for this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Markets Bounce to Carve Out Potential Range

Silver markets have rallied a bit during the course of the week to show signs of strength again as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. Quite frankly, this is a market that I think given enough time will have to make up its mind but right now it does not seem to be necessarily concerned about it. Because of this, I think it is probably a situation where we could be trying to carve out a range for shorter-term traders, with the $22 level underneath kicking off significant support that extends all the way down to the $21.50 level.

SILVER Video 17.01.22

On the other hand, the $23.50 level above offers significant resistance, which we have seen tested three times in a row on the weekly chart. Once we break out of one of these ranges, then we can get some type of situation where we can decide whether or not we are going to have a bigger move, which to the upside could be as high as $25. To the downside, if we break down it is very likely we could go looking towards the $20 level.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, and of course negative correlation to the US dollar. Because of this, you need to pay close attention to the US Dollar Index, and what it is doing. Quite frankly, it just trades in the opposite direction most of the time and that something you need to keep in the back of your mind.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Markets Give Up Gains to Form Ugly Candlestick

Natural gas markets initially gapped higher to kick off the week, and then shot towards the bottom of the massive descending triangle that we had previously formed. By doing so, the market is very likely to see plenty of selling pressure, and if we break down below the 50 week EMA, it is very likely that the market goes looking towards the $3.50 level, possibly down to the $3.00 level underneath, as it is the so-called “measured move” of the descending triangle that is sitting above.

NATGAS Video 17.01.22

All things being equal, if we do rally it is likely that we will see plenty of sellers above due to the fact that the natural gas markets have suggested that there are plenty of reasons to see this market drop. Quite frankly, the natural gas markets are oversupplied from a longer-term standpoint, so although it does tend to trade on the short-term weather patterns of the northeastern United States, the reality is that we are already trading the February contract and will soon start to focus on the month of March. That is when temperatures warm up in the US, so thereby it drives down the demand for natural gas going forward.

The only way I would be a buyer of this market is if we were to break above the top of the massive shooting star for the week, something that I just do not see happening anytime soon. All things been equal, this is a market that is a “fade the rallies” situation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Markets Carving Out a Consolidation

Gold markets have rallied during the course of the weekend as you can see the market has seen a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, this is a market that is trying to figure out where to go next, and quite frankly I think what we have here is a situation where we are simply spinning our wheels and try to figure out where to go next. If we can break above the $1835 level, then I think the market really starts to take off and it goes looking towards the $1875 level. Alternately, if we break down below the $1780 level, that would be extraordinarily negative for gold.

Gold Price Predictions Video 17.01.22

Either way, it looks as if we are simply going sideways in the short term, so I think that it this is a short-term trader type of environment at this point. However, if we break out of this box that I have drawn on the chart, it is a longer-term trading opportunity. If we break down, I could see a $50 drop right away, perhaps followed by a move down to the $1700 level. All things been equal, this is a market that seems as if it is just killing time, just as it has been doing for the last several months. In fact, you could even say that the volatility is shrinking, which if you are a trader of something like the Bollinger Band indicator, you probably see quite a bit of compression, which suggests that we will eventually take off, but right now we just do not seem to be that interested.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Markets Struggle With 50 Day EMA

Silver markets have initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday to reach towards the $23.50 level before pulling back again. All things been equal, this is a market that seems as if it is struggling with the 50 day EMA, so I think at this point in time we probably get a bit of a pullback. This pullback is almost certainly going to be paying close attention to the $22 level underneath, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and extends down to the $21.50 level. That is a massive support level that continues to be closely watched.

SILVER Video 17.01.22

On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the $23.50 level, that could send this market much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 200 day EMA which sits just below the $24 level. The $24 level is just a psychological barrier though, because quite frankly I think if we do rally like that, we will see the $25 level be targeted. Having said that, a lot of what we have seen has been in reaction to the US dollar and the way it is behaving, so it will be interesting to see whether or not the US dollar strengthens or weakens.

I would anticipate that we would see an inverse relation continue between these two markets, and therefore it is likely that we will see that continue. All things being equal, this is a market that could be carving out a bit of a consolidation area between the $23.50 level above and the $22 level below. The 50 day EMA of course is somewhat flat, so that does suggest that perhaps we are taking a look at the market through the prism of choppy and back and forth.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Markets Bounce From 200 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have fallen significantly during the course of the trading session on Friday, to reach down towards the 200 day EMA. By doing so, the market looks as if it is trying to hang onto some bullish pressure, but quite frankly at this point in time I think the last couple of sessions have shown you just how weak the buyers are. If we rally for any significant amount of time at this point, it is very likely that we will see this market find plenty of sellers.

NATGAS Video 17.01.22

Natural gas is getting a bit of a pop due to the cold temperatures in the northeastern part of the United States, but that is a temporary phenomenon. At this point in time, any time that this market rallies, I am looking for an opportunity to short it. On the other hand, if we break down below the 200 day EMA, then it is likely we go looking towards the gap underneath, finally filling it. Nonetheless, I have no interest in buying natural gas, and most certainly not at this time of year. Even if you told me that we were going to gain 5% in the next 24 hours, I would simply be looking for an opportunity to short the market.

All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but quite frankly we will eventually break down significantly at this point and I think that a lot of traders will be aiming for the $3.50 level underneath, perhaps even the $3.00 level after that as it is the “measured move” of the massive descending triangle above.

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Gold Markets Stumble at Resistance

Gold markets have initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday but have given up gains as the 1830 level continues to be very difficult to break above. With this being the case, the market is very likely to continue seeing noisy behavior going forward, as the markets have seen so much in the way of volatility. The $1830 level continues to be almost impossible to break above, and therefore it is not a huge surprise to see how we have failed yet again.

Gold Price Predictions Video 17.01.22

The market continues to be very noisy, and range bound, and that is probably the most important thing to pay attention to. With that being said, the $1800 level underneath will probably be important, due to the fact that it has been attractive as a large, round, psychologically significant figure and of course the fact that we have the 50 and the 200 day EMA sitting right there in the same area. Because of this, I think it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where we break through there, but if we do then we go looking towards the $1780 level, an area that has been rather supportive in the past as well.

Keep in mind that there is a lot going on with the US dollar right now, so it does make a certain amount of sense that gold will be volatile. Furthermore, people out there are freaking out about everything with the Federal Reserve tightening, something that a lot of traders have never seen. Because of this, it is difficult to imagine how the markets will behave in the short term, but one has to assume that we remain range bound.

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US Dollar Gets Hammered Against Japanese Yen in Safety Bid

The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the trading week, to break through the ¥115 level handily, and then go looking towards the ¥113.50 level at the time of writing. That being said, this is a nasty candlestick and quite frankly it is probably the beginning of something kind of ugly. With that in mind, I will be looking for signs of exhaustion on any rally to start shorting, and if we break down below the ¥112.50 level, I will become much more aggressive. At that point in time, I believe it is probably only a matter of time before we would drop towards the ¥110 level and beyond. Keep in mind that although the US dollar is doing well against most currencies, the Japanese yen is considered to be the “safer” than the greenback, and that is how we are playing this out.

USD/JPY Video 17.01.22

When you look at the size of this candlestick, it is essentially wiping out the previous three weeks, and that is not a good look. It typically means trouble and most of the time you get to candlesticks like this you will get a certain amount of follow-through. With that in mind, I do not have any interest in trying to catch this market to the upside unless of course we get some type of weekly supportive candlestick like a hammer. It would be ideal to see it near the ¥112.50 level, but if it does not hold, look out below as people will be running for the exits.

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British Pound Slams Into Resistance

This pound has rallied rather significantly during the course of the trading week to slam into the 1.37 level. This is an area where I would anticipate a lot of noise based upon all of that choppy behavior in this general vicinity, so it is not a huge surprise to see how this has played out. Ultimately, it is also worth noting that perhaps there is more of a “risk off attitude” out there, so I do not know whether or not we can continue this move to the upside. Keep in mind that the Thursday candlestick was a shooting star, while the Friday candlestick seems to be mirroring that behavior.

GBP/USD Video 17.01.22

When I look at this chart, I recognize that we have seen a strong rally, and it is not a huge surprise to think that there could be a desire to buy this market, but at this point I think we need to clear the weekly candlestick to the upside, as we have so much in the way of noise at the moment, and especially fear. With this being the case, I do think that it is probably a situation where we need to be cautious, but I think a pullback makes the most sense. The 1.35 level would obviously be an area that probably causes a bit of attention. With that being said, it will be interesting to see if we can hold that area. If we cannot, then this market almost certainly will fall apart at that point.

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British Pound Pulls Back Against Yen Toward Support

The British pound has initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found resistance at the familiar ¥157.50 level to pull back against the Japanese yen. It should be kept in the back of your mind that the Japanese yen is considered to be a major safety currency, so therefore if there is a run towards safety, this pair will fall. Furthermore, you can make a strong argument that the British pound itself is a little overbought, not only against the Japanese yen, but against almost all other currencies. Because of this, it is not a huge surprise to see how this market is behaving. If we continue to see the fear out there that we have seen over the last several sessions, this pair will almost certainly slice through the ¥155 level and then go much lower.

GBP/JPY Video 17.01.22

To the upside, if we can take out the ¥157.50 level to the upside, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign and have this market looking towards the ¥160 level given enough time. I do not necessarily think that is going to be easy to do, but it is a very real possibility that you need to keep in the back of your mind. I think the most important thing you can do with this pair right now is keep your position size small, because quite frankly it is going to get thrown around like a ragdoll in this type of environment. The pair used to be known as the “Dragon”, and I think we may see more Dragon like behavior going forward, so it is probably worth being as cautious as possible.

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Euro Makes Attempt at 1.15

The Euro has shown itself to be very noisy during the course of the trading week, as we initially fell rather hard, only to turn back around and test the 1.15 level. That being said, there is a lot of confusion and fear out there due to the Federal Reserve looking to tighten monetary policy. This should in theory help the US dollar overall, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out. After all, the market has been rather shocked by the absolute turnaround in the Federal Reserve policy, but at the same time it looks like Europe is trying to pick up its economy again.

EUR/USD Video 17.01.22

If it does, then it is very likely that we could see this pair continue to go higher. If we can break the 1.15 handle, then I believe that the market goes looking towards 1.16 level where a significant selloff began. It will be interesting to see how this plays out but if we do get the opportunity to test the 1.16 level, I think that is where the “rubber meets the road.”

One thing is for sure, I think that the volatility is going to continue to be a major issue in this pair, and other ones involving the US dollar. The bond market is a mess right now, as it is pricing in the idea of the Federal Reserve making a major mistake, so therefore the dollar will probably continue to be all over the place. Because of this, the EUR/USD pair is probably going to be extraordinarily noisy more than anything else.

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