AUD/USD Daily Forecast – Australian Dollar Gains Ground At The Start Of The Week

AUD/USD Video 25.01.21.

Australian Dollar Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar

AUD/USD is testing the resistance at 0.7740 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is slowly moving towards the nearest support level at 90. In case the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below this level, it will head towards the support at 89.75 which will be bullish for AUD/USD.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the U.S. and Australia today so foreign exchange market traders will likely focus on general market sentiment and Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.

While some Republicans have already raised concerns about the huge size of the new stimulus package, the stimulus plan is expected to get enough votes which is bullish for riskier assets like Australian dollar.

Oil is rebounding after the recent sell-off and other commodities are also receiving some support from investors which is an additional bullish catalyst for the Australian currency.

Technical Analysis

aud usd january 25 2021

AUD/USD received support at the 20 EMA at 0.7710 and gained upside momentum. Currently, AUD/USD is trying to settle above the nearest resistance level at 0.7740. RSI is in the moderate territory so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If AUD/USD settles above the resistance at 0.7740, it will head towards the next resistance level at 0.7760. A successful test of this level will push AUD/USD towards the resistance which is located at 0.7780. If AUD/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 0.7780, it will move towards the next resistance level at 0.7800.

On the support side, the nearest support level for AUD/USD is located at 0.7725. If AUD/USD declines below the support at 0.7725, it will get to the test of the next support at the 20 EMA at 0.7710. A move below the 20 EMA will be a worrisome development for AUD/USD bulls as it will signal that AUD/USD will try to develop additional downside momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Schlumberger Shares Gain as Earnings Top Estimates

Shares in Schlumberger Limited (SLB) bucked broader weakness in the energy sector Friday, gaining nearly 1% after the oilfield services provider delivered a better-than-expected fourth-quarter report.

The Houston-based company reported quarterly earnings of 22 cents per share, comfortably above the 17 cent figure analysts had expected. Meanwhile, revenues of $5.5 billion topped estimates by $300 million. Notably, sequential sales rose across all four of the company’s business divisions during the period, indicating recovering economic activity. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, top-and bottom-line growth declined 33% and 44%, respectively. Management credited increasing contributions from digital solutions and growing multiclient seismic license sales for the encouraging results.

Cash flow also improved during the quarter, coming in at $554 million despite shelling out $144 million in severance payments. Moreover, the company sees the trend continuing this year. “We are confident in our ability to further improve cash flow generation in 2021, which will allow for debt reduction,” CEO Olivier Le Peuch told investors during the earnings call, per the company’s website.

Through Friday’s close, Schlumberger shares have a market capitalization nearing $34 billion, offer a 2.05% dividend yield, and trade 33% lower over the past 12 months. However, since the start of the year, the stock has gained almost 12%. From a valuation standpoint, the shares have a forward-earnings multiple of 25.7 times, 25% below their five-year average multiple of 34.5 times.

Wall Street View

Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber remains bullish on the stock. “Schlumberger remains our top pick in oilfield services given their leverage to recovery abroad, margin expansion prospects, and free cash flow generative business model,” he wrote in a client note cited by Barron’s.

Other sell-side firms overwhelmingly share Gruber’s view. The stock receives 21 ‘Buy’ ratings, 2 ‘Overweight’ ratings, and 8 ‘Hold’ ratings. Just one analyst currently recommends selling the shares. Twelve-month price targets range widely from a Street-high $37 to a low of $17, with the median sitting at $27.

Technical Outlook and Trading Tactics

Schlumberger shares initially sold off after releasing results but staged an impressive intraday turnaround to complete a piercing line bullish reversal pattern. As added confluence, the bounce occurred at the $24 level, where price finds crucial support from the June and December swing highs. Furthermore, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed back above the 200-day SMA in early December to form a “golden cross” – a technical signal often marking the start of a new uptrend.

Active traders who enter here should consider placing a stop-loss order slightly beneath Friday’s low at $23.45 and target a move up to longer-term resistance at $31.

For a look at today’s earnings schedule, check out our earnings calendar.

EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Is Flat Against U.S. Dollar At The Start Of The Week

EUR/USD Video 25.01.21.

Euro Tries To Move Higher Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is currently trying to settle above the resistance at 1.2175 while the U.S. dollar remains under pressure against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently moving towards the nearest support level at 90. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next support at 80.75 which will be bullish for EUR/USD.

The recent Euro Area PMI data was a bit better than expected as Manufacturing PMI decreased from 55.2 in December to 54.7 in January compared to analyst consensus of 54.5 while Services PMI decreased from 46.4 to 45 compared to analyst consensus of 44.5. Numbers below 50 show contraction.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package proposal. The proposal faced opposition from some Republicans due ot its huge size. However, markets believe that it would get enough support so riskier assets enjoy solid demand while safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar are under pressure.

Technical Analysis

eur usd january 25 2021

EUR/USD managed to get above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2165 and is trying to settle above the next resistance level at 1.2175. EUR/USD has already made several attempts to settle above this level in recent trading sessions but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum.

In case EUR/USD settles above the resistance at 1.2175, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.2220 although it may also face some resistance near 1.2190. A successful test of the resistance at 1.2220 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level which is located at 1.2250.

On the support side, the previous resistance at the 20 EMA at 1.2165 will likely serve as the first support level for EUR/USD. In case EUR/USD declines below the 20 EMA, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2155.

A move below the support at 1.2155 will push EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.2130. If EUR/USD manages to settle below this level, it will get to the test of the 50 EMA at 1.2120.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Resistance At 1.3745 In Sight

GBP/USD Video 25.01.21.

British Pound Moves Higher At The Start Of The Week

GBP/USD managed to get above the resistance at 1.3710 and is moving towards the next resistance level at 1.3745 while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index faced resistance at the 20 EMA at 90.30 and is moving towards the support at the 90 level. If the U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the support at 90, it will gain additional downside momentum and head towards the next support level at 89.75 which will be bullish for GBP/USD.

On Friday, UK reported that Manufacturing PMI declined from 57.5 in December to 52.9 in January while Services PMI decreased from 49.4 to 38.8. Numbers below 50 show contraction.

Meanwhile, Retail Sales grew by 0.3% month-over-month in December compared to the analyst consensus which called for growth of 1.2%.

The reports indicated that the country’s problems on the coronavirus front have put significant pressure on the services segment while the consumer activity has started to slow down.

There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released today in the U.S. and UK, so foreign exchange market traders will focus on coronavirus-related news and Biden’s stimulus plan.

Technical Analysis

gbp usd january 25 2021

GBP/USD gained upside momentum and is trying to get to the test of the resistance level at 1.3745. If GBP/USD manages to settle above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.3785. A move above the resistance at 1.3785 will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance at 1.3800.

It should be noted that GBP/USD has not visited this territory for several years so it remains to be seen whether previous levels will be relevant for today’s trading.

On the support side, a move  below 1.3710 will open the way to the test of the support at 1.3665. In case GBP/USD declines below the support at 1.3665, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3625. A successful test of the support at 1.3625 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3575.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bitcoin and Ethereum – Weekly Technical Analysis – January 25th, 2021

Bitcoin

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slid by 9.97% in the week ending 24th January. Following on from a 6.02% decline from the previous week, Bitcoin ended the week at $32,320.0.

A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin rise to a Tuesday intraweek high $37,936.6 before hitting reverse.

Falling well short of the first major resistance level at $40,389, Bitcoin slid to a Friday intraweek low $28,989.0.

The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the first major support level at $31,023.

It was Bitcoin’s first visit to sub-$30,000 levels since 5th January.

Finding support on Friday, Bitcoin broke back through the 23.6% FIB before ending the day at sub-$32,500 levels.

4 days in the red that included an 13.08% tumble on Thursday delivered the downside for the week.

For the week ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the $33,082 pivot to support a run the first major resistance level at $37,175.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $37,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and last week’s high $37,936.6 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Bitcoin could test resistance at the swing hi $41,969 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $42,029.

Failure to move through the 23.6% FIB and the $33,082 pivot would bring the first major support level at $28,227 into play.

Barring a crypto meltdown, however, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $24,134. The 38.2% FIB of $27,465 should limit the downside in the event of an extended sell-off.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.68% to $32,863.4. A mixed start to the week saw Bitcoin fall to an early Monday low $32,253.0 before rising to a high $32,919.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

BTCUSD 250121 Daily Chart

Ethereum

Ethereum rose by 13.09% in the week ending 24th January. Reversing a 1.76% loss from the previous week, Ethereum ended the week at $1,394.00.

It was a bullish start to the week. Ethereum rose to a Tuesday intraweek high and a new swing hi $1,440.0 before hitting reverse.

The breakout saw Ethereum break through the first major resistance level before sliding to a Friday intraweek low $1,039.62.

While steering clear of the first major support level at $994, Ethereum fell through the 23.6% FIB of $1,119.

A recovery on Friday and a bullish weekend, however, saw Ethereum break back through the 23.6% FIB to end the week at $1,390 levels.

6-days in the green included an 8.71% rally on Tuesday, an 11.07% jump on Friday, and a 12.92% breakout on Sunday delivered the upside in the week. A 19.34% slump on Thursday pared some of the gains, however.

For the week ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,291 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,543.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break through to $1,500 levels.

Barring another extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,750 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,692.

Failure to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,291 would bring the first major support level at $1,142 and the 23.6% FIB of $1,119 into play.

Barring a crypto meltdown, however, Ethereum should steer clear of the 38.2% FIB of $921 and the second major support level at $891.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 3.31% to $1,440.19. A mixed start to the week saw Ethereum fall to an early Monday low $1,384.15 before striking a new swing hi $1,477.30.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested at the start of the week.

ETHUSD 250121 Daily Chart

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – January 25th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by 0.69% on Sunday. Partially reversing a 2.81% fall from Saturday, Bitcoin ended the week down by 9.97% to $32,320.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $31,709.0 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $31,174, Bitcoin rose to a mid-morning intraday high $33,174.0.

Bitcoin broke back through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $33,289, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $31,011.0.

Bitcoin fell through the first major support level at $31,174 before recovering to close out the day in the green.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest sell-off. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $18,504 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Sunday.

Polkadot (-4.65%) saw red to buck the trend on the day.

It was a bullish day for the rest of the majors.

Ethereum rallied by 12.92% to lead the way.

Binance Coin  (+2.28%), Bitcoin Cash SV (+1.59%), Cardano’s ADA (+2.21%), Crypto.com Coin (+1.40%), and Litecoin (+2.43%) also found strong support.

Chainlink (+0.01%) and Ripple’s XRP (+0.62%) trailed the front runners on the day.

For the week, it was also a mixed week for the majors.

Polkadot rallied by 16.97% to lead the way.

Chainlink (+6.47%) and Ethereum (+13.09%) also found support to buck the trend in the week.

It was a bearish week for the rest of the majors.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 22.52% to lead the way down.

Binance Coin (-8.64%), Cardano’s ADA (-7.06%), Crypto.com Coin (-7.98%), Litecoin (-1.14%), and Ripple’s XRP (-11.96%) also joined Bitcoin in the red.

In the week, the crypto total market cap rose to a Tuesday high $1,080.72bn before sliding to an early Saturday low $812.79bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $971.22bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 67.47% before falling to a Sunday low 62.84%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 62.75%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.29% to $32,736.5. A mixed start to the day saw Bitcoin fall to an early morning low $32,253.0 before striking a high $32,835.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Polkadot bucked the trend early on, falling by 0.68%.

It was a bullish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 4.02% to lead the way.

BTCUSD 250121 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $32,168 to bring the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the first major resistance level at $33,326 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $33,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $33,500 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $35,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $34,331.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $32,168 pivot would bring the first major support level at $31,163 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $30,005.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – January 25th, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 12.92% on Sunday. Following a 0.09% gain on Saturday, Ethereum ended the week up by 13.1% to $1,394.00.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning intraday low $1,221.66 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $1,197, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $1,401.92.

Ethereum broke through the day’s major resistance levels before easing back to $1,394 levels.

In spite of the late pullback, Ethereum avoided a fall back through the third major resistance level at $1,384.95.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was up by 0.91% to $1,406.62. A mixed start to the day saw Ethereum fall to an early morning low $1,384.15 before rising to a high $1,409.00.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 250121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,339 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,457.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break out from the swing hi $1,440.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the swing hi and the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,550 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,520.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,339 pivot would bring the first major support level at $1,277 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of 23.6% FIB of $1,119. The second major support level at $1,159 should limit the downside.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,277

Pivot Level: $1,339

First Major Resistance Level: $1,457

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,119

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $921

62% FIB Retracement Level: $600

Litecoin

Litecoin rose by 2.43% on Sunday. Following a 0.01% gain on Saturday, Litecoin ended the week down by 1.14% to $141.13.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall to an early morning low $136.34 before making a move.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Litecoin rose to a mid-morning intraday high $142.63.

Coming up against the first major resistance level at $142.53, Litecoin slid to a late intraday low $133.86.

Litecoin fell through the first major support level at $133.99 before a late recovery to end the day at $141 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 0.25% to $140.78. A mixed start to the day saw Litecoin rise to an early morning high $141.78 before falling to a low $140.78.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 250121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $139.21 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $144.55.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Sunday’s high $142.63.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and resistance at $145 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test the second major resistance level at $147.98 and the 23.6% FIB of $148. Resistance at $150 would likely cap the upside, however.

Failure to move through the $139.21 pivot level would bring first major support level at $135.78 into play.

Barring an extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $130.44.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $135.78

Pivot Level: $139.21

First Major Resistance Level: $144.55

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $148

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $125

62% FIB Retracement Level: $87

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 0.62% on Sunday. Reversing a 0.12% decline from Saturday, Ripple’s XRP ended week down by 12% to $0.27357.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.26850 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $0.2638, Ripple’s XRP rose to a mid-morning intraday high $0.27789.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2818, Ripple’s XRP fell to a late intraday low $0.26800.

Continuing to avoid the major support levels, Ripple’s XRP recovered to end the day at $0.273 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.40% to $0.27466. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.27336 before rising to a high $0.27529.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 250121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2732 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2783 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break out from Sunday’s high $0.27789.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance and resistance at $0.28 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test resistance at $0.29 before any pullback. The second major resistance sits at $0.2830.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2732 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2684 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of the second major support level at $0.2633.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2684

Pivot Level: $0.2732

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2783

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6274

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5285

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3687

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

Mixed Messages Ahead of Starbucks Report

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) reports Q1 2021 earnings after Tuesday’s closing bell, with analysts expecting a profit of $0.55 per-share on $6.91 billion in revenue. If met, earnings-per-share (EPS) will mark a 30% profit decline compared to the same quarter in 2020.  The stock sold off in October after the company guided Q1 EPS below consensus but it recovered quickly and has now broken out to an all-time high in triple digits.

Looking for a Q2 Recovery

The coffee king expects U.S. business to fully recover by the end of the March (Q2) quarter. The projection could prove optimistic, given the ongoing second pandemic wave and painfully slow vaccine rollout. In addition, the company is struggling to get through the winter months, with fiscal Q1 revenue projected to fall 5% to 6% overall and 7% to 10% in December, driven by increased restrictions and tougher comparisons during the 2020 holiday season.

Credit Suisse analyst Lauren Silberman posted upbeat comments ahead of the report, noting “We continue to like SBUX on both near-term & long-term fundamentals. Near-term, SBUX should benefit from reopening & increased commuter traffic, a reduction in industry supply, and easy comparisons. Long-term, we remain positive SBUX can return to outperformance, noting strong resilience amidst a challenging breakfast backdrop, with beverage innovation and a powerful digital ecosystem to drive the most meaningful contribution”.

Wall Street and Technical Outlook

Wall Street consensus reflects skepticism about the 2021 outlook, with a ‘Moderate Buy’ rating based upon 14 ‘Buy’, 18 ‘Hold’, and 0 ‘Sell’ recommendations. Price targets currently range from a low of $94 to a Street-high $122 while the stock closed Friday’s U.S. session $8 below the median $111 target. This humble placement reflects ongoing concerns about the restaurant sector, with investors keeping their power dry while the world awaits vaccine distribution.

Starbucks’ stock completed a round trip into resistance at the 2019 high near 100 in November and broke out in early December, posting an all-time high at 107.75 on the first trading day of 2021. It’s carved a rectangular consolidation since that time and is now trading just three points above the breakout level. The company has done a good job setting expectations ahead of the report, but odds are now equally weighted between a rally continuation and failed breakout.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Disclosure: the author held no positions in aforementioned securities at the time of publication.

The Week Ahead – The FED, 4th Quarter GDP Numbers, COVID-19, and U.S Politics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 55 stats in focus in the week ending 29th January. In the week prior, 74 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a busier week ahead.

On Tuesday, consumer confidence figures for January will draw interest.

Another fall in consumer confidence would test support for riskier assets early on.

Mid-week, core durable goods and durable goods orders for December will provide direction.

The focus will then shift to 4th quarter GDP figures due out on Thursday. While growth will be slower than the 3rd quarter rebound, what impact the 2nd wave of the pandemic has had remains to be seen.

Weekly jobless claims figures will also draw interest on Thursday. A marked decline would support riskier assets.

On Friday, December inflation and personal spending figures, along with January’s PMI for Chicago wraps things up.

Other stats including housing sector and trade figures and finalized consumer sentiment figures should have a muted impact on the markets.

On the monetary policy front, however, the FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday is the main event.

Following FED Chair Powell’s assurances of no rate hikes or tapering of bond purchases, the statement will need to be aligned.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.59% to 90.238.

For the EUR:

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

In the 1st half of the week, German business Sentiment and consumer confidence figures will be in focus.

Expect plenty of EUR sensitivity to the numbers.

The focus will then shift to 4th quarter GDP numbers on Friday. French, German, and Spanish GDP numbers are due out.

Expect Germany and France’s GDP numbers to have the greatest impact on the EUR.

French consumer spending and German unemployment numbers will also provide direction on Friday.

Other stats include prelim inflation figures for January. Barring a marked slide in consumer prices, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak on Monday. Expect any forward guidance to move the dial.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.74% to $1.2171.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include claimant count figures for December and the unemployment rate for November, due out on Tuesday.

Earnings and 3-month rolling employment figures should have less influence on the day.

With no other stats to consider in the week, COVID-19 will remain a key driver.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.71% to $1.3686.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Building permit, GDP, and RMPI figures.

Expect November GDP and December RMPI figures on Friday to have the greatest influence on the Loonie.

From elsewhere, 4th quarter GDP numbers together with COVID-19 news updates will likely be the key drivers, however.

The Loonie ended the week down by 0.01% to C$1.2733 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a busy week on the economic data front. The markets will need to wait until Wednesday for the first set of numbers, however.

Business confidence and inflation figures will draw interest on Wednesday.

At the end of the week, private sector credit numbers are also due out. Barring dire numbers, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on the Aussie Dollar on Friday.

From elsewhere, GDP figures from the U.S and the EU and COVID-19 news updates will also be key drivers in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.16% to $0.7715.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Economic data is limited to December trade data, due out on Thursday.

With little else for the markets to consider, expect the numbers to influence.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.79% to $0.7189.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a busy week ahead.

December retail sales figures on Thursday will draw plenty of interest.

At the end of the week, inflation and prelim industrial production figures will also provide direction.

Ultimately, however, vaccination rates and the trends in new COVID-19 cases will remain key drivers.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.07% to ¥103.78 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s quiet week ahead.

There are no material stats due out of China to provide the markets with direction.

Following the recent spike in new COVID-19 cases, expect COVID-19 updates from China to influence, however.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.02% to CNY6.4819 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

 

U.S Politics

Stimulus talk and other policy moves by U.S President Joe Biden will be key in the week.

Progress on Biden’s vaccination target of 100 million vaccinations in the 1st 100 days should support riskier assets.

COVID-19

Vaccination rates and availability of vaccines will be key areas of interest.

An upward trend in vaccination rates and a downward trend on infection rates would support riskier assets in the week.

Corporate Earnings

A number of big names deliver results in the week ahead.

From the U.S

Key names include but are not limited to:

American Express (Tuesday)

General Electric (Tuesday)

Verizon Communications (Tuesday)

Microsoft Corp. (Tuesday)

Johnson & Johnson (Tuesday)

Apple Inc. (Wednesday)

Boeing Co. (Wednesday)

Facebook Inc. (Wednesday)

Tesla Inc. (Wednesday)

Visa (Wednesday)

 

 

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – January 24th, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 2.81% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 7.02% rally from Friday, Bitcoin ended the day at $32,099.0.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $32,138.0 before making a move.

The early pullback saw Bitcoin fall through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008.

Steering clear of the major support levels, however, Bitcoin rose to a mid-morning intraday high $33,554.0.

Bitcoin broke back through the 23.6% FIB before hitting reverse.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $34,942, Bitcoin slid to an early afternoon intraday low $31,439.4.

Bitcoin fell back through the 23.6% FIB, while steering clear of the first major support level at $30,081.

Finding support late in the day, Bitcoin briefly revisited $32,500 levels before easing back.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest sell-off. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $18,504 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Saturday.

Chainlink and Polkadot jumped by 14.87% and by 12.53% respectively to lead the way.

Binance Coin  (+0.09%), Ethereum (+0.09%), and Litecoin (+0.01%) also ended the day in the green.

It was a bearish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Bitcoin Cash SV slid by 4.55% to lead the way down.

Cardano’s ADA (-0.90%), Crypto.com Coin (-2.72%), and Ripple’s XRP (-0.12%) also joined Bitcoin in the red.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose to a Tuesday high $1,080.72bn before sliding to an early Saturday low $812.79bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $919.19bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 67.47% before falling to a Saturday low 64.14%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 64.33%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 0.88% to $31,815.0. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $32,099.0 to a low $31,709.0.

Bitcoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV and Crypto.com Coin bucked the trend early on, with gains of 1.59% and 0.84% respectively.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Chainlink was down by 0.97% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 240121 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to move through the pivot level at $32,364 to bring the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the first major resistance level at $33,289 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break back through to $33,000 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the 23.6% FIB and the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $35,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $34,479.

Failure to move through the $32,364 pivot would bring the first major support level at $31,174 into play.

Barring an extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$30,000 levels. The second major support level at $30,250 should limit the downside.

The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers – January 23rd, 2021

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rallied by 7.02% on Friday. Partially reversing Thursday’s 13.06% tumble, Bitcoin ended the day at $33,058.0.

It was a bearish start to the day. Bitcoin slid to an early morning intraday low $28,989.0 before making a move.

Coming within range of the first major support level at $28,840, Bitcoin rallied to a late intraday high $33,850.0.

While falling short of the first major resistance level at $34,260, Bitcoin broke through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008.

A late pullback saw Bitcoin fall back through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 before wrapping up the day at $33,050 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained intact, in spite of the latest sell-off. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $18,504 to form a near-term bearish trend.

The Rest of the Pack

Across the rest of the majors, it was a mixed day on Friday.

Crypto.com Coin fell by 0.27% to buck the trend on the day.

It was a particularly bullish day for the rest of the majors, however.

Chainlink surged by 17.19% to lead the way, with Cardano’s ADA (+13.60%), and Ethereum (+11.07%) close behind.

Binance Coin  (+6.02%) and Litecoin (+6.26%) also made solid gains.

Bitcoin Cash SV, (+2.42%), Polkadot (+0.25%) and Ripple’s XRP (+1.80%) trailed the front runners, however.

In the current week, the crypto total market cap rose to a Tuesday high $1,080.72bn before sliding to an early Friday low $812.79bn. At the time of writing, the total market cap stood at $926.91bn.

Bitcoin’s dominance rose to a Monday high 67.47% before falling to a Friday low 64.63%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 65.20%.

This Morning

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down by 1.28% to $32,634.0. A bearish start to the day saw Bitcoin fall from an early morning high $33,036.0 to a low $32,472.0.

While leaving the major support and resistance levels untested, Bitcoin fell through the 23.6% FIB of $33,008.

Elsewhere, it was a mixed start to the day.

Bitcoin Cash SV and Ripple’s XRP were up by 0.76% and by 0.07% to buck the trend early on.

It was a bearish start for the rest of the majors, however.

At the time of writing, Binance Coin was down by 1.47% to lead the way down.

BTCUSD 230121 Hourly Chart

For the Bitcoin Day Ahead

Bitcoin would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $31,966 to bring the 23.6% FIB of $33,008 and the first major resistance level at $34,942 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed for Bitcoin to break out from Friday’s high $33,850.0.

Barring an extended crypto rally, first major resistance level and resistance at $35,000 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended crypto rally, Bitcoin could test resistance at $37,000 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $36,827.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $31,966 pivot would bring the first major support level at $30,081 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Bitcoin should steer clear of sub-$28,000 levels and the 38.2% FIB of $27,465. The second major support level sits at $27,105.

Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – January 23rd, 2021

Ethereum

Ethereum rallied by 11.07% on Friday. Partially reversing Thursday’s 19.35% slump, Ethereum ended the day at $1,233.60.

A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum slide to an early morning intraday low $1,039.62 before making a move.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $998, Ethereum rallied to a late intraday high $1,275.99.

While coming up short of the first major resistance level at $1,307, Ethereum broke through the 23.6% FIB of $1,119.

A bearish end to the day saw Ethereum ease back to end the day at sub-$1,240 levels.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down by 0.99% to $1,221.43. A bearish start to the day saw Ethereum fall from an early morning high $1,233.89 to a low $1,206.10.

Ethereum left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

ETHUSD 230121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ethereum would need to avoid a fall through the pivot level at $1,183 to support a run at the first major resistance level at $1,327.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ethereum to break back through to $1,300 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended crypto rally, Ethereum could test resistance at $1,400 before any pullback. The second major resistance level sits at $1,419.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $1,183 pivot would bring the 23.6% FIB of $1,119 and the first major support level at $1,090 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, however, Ethereum should steer clear of sub-$1,000 levels. The second major support level sits at $947.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $1,090

Pivot Level: $1,183

First Major Resistance Level: $1,327

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $1,119

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $921

62% FIB Retracement Level: $600

Litecoin

Litecoin rallied by 6.26% on Friday. Partially reversing a 13.40% tumble from Thursday, Litecoin ended the day at $137.76.

A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin slide to an early morning intraday low $122.25 before making a move.

The sell-off saw Litecoin fall through the 38.2% FIB of $125.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $119.98, Litecoin rallied to a late intraday high $142.00.

While coming up short of the first major resistance level at $144.93, Litecoin broke back through the 38.2% FIB.

A bearish end to the day saw Litecoin fall back to end the day at sub-$140 levels.

At the time of writing, Litecoin was down by 1.05% to $136.31. A bearish start to the day saw Litecoin fall from an early morning high $137.75 to a low $135.00.

Litecoin left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

LTCUSD 230121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Litecoin would need to avoid a fall through the $134.00 pivot level to support a run at the first major resistance level at $145.76 and the 23.6% FIB of $148.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Litecoin to break out from Friday’s high $142.00.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance level and 23.6% FIB would likely cap any upside.

In the event of an extended breakout, Litecoin could test resistance at $150. The second major resistance level sits at $153.75.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $134.00 pivot level would bring first major support level at $126.01 and the 38.2% FIB of $125 into play.

Barring another extended sell-off, Litecoin should steer clear of the second major support level at $114.25.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $126.01

Pivot Level: $134.00

First Major Resistance Level: $145.76

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $148

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $125

62% FIB Retracement Level: $87

Ripple’s XRP

Ripple’s XRP rose by 1.80% on Friday. Partially reversing a 9.43% slide from Thursday, Ripple’s XRP ended the day at $0.27282.

A bearish start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP slide to an early morning intraday low $0.24000.

Ripple’s XRP fell through the first major support level at $0.2497 before striking a late intraday high $0.27801.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $0.2968, Ripple’s XRP eased back to end the day at $0.272 levels.

At the time of writing, Ripple’s XRP was up by 0.03% to $0.27290. A mixed start to the day saw Ripple’s XRP fall to an early morning low $0.27028 before rising to a high $0.27293.

Ripple’s XRP left the major support and resistance levels untested early on.

XRPUSD 230121 Hourly Chart

For the day ahead

Ripple’s XRP will need to avoid a fall through the $0.2636 pivot level to bring the first major resistance level at $0.2872 into play.

Support from the broader market would be needed, however, for Ripple’s XRP to break back through to $0.28 levels.

Barring an extended crypto rally, the first major resistance and resistance at $0.29 would likely cap any upside.

In the event of another extended rally, Ripple’s XRP could test the second major resistance at $0.3016 before any pullback.

Failure to avoid a fall through the $0.2636 pivot would bring the first major support level at $0.2492 into play.

Barring another extended crypto sell-off, Ripple’s XRP should steer clear of sub-$0.24 levels. The second major support level sits at $0.2256.

Looking at the Technical Indicators

First Major Support Level: $0.2492

Pivot Level: $0.2636

First Major Resistance Level: $0.2872

23.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.6274

38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.5285

62% FIB Retracement Level: $0.3687

Please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Thanks, Bob

S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Look Bullish

The S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of the week, breaking out to a fresh, new high. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of buyers on dips, which of course offers value every time we get one. The stimulus has been on everybody’s mind, and therefore headlines coming out when it comes to stimulus suggests that we will continue to look higher. The US dollar of course has been all over the place, so therefore it continues to cause some havoc here.

S&P 500 Video 25.01.21

When you look at the uptrend line underneath, that suggests that we are going to continue to find buyers on a dip. Longer-term, I believe that we are going to go looking towards the 4000 level based upon the consolidation area that we had previously been bouncing around and. The 400 point range underneath was important, so I think that we will continue to look at that as a potential measuring move. A short-term pullback will offer buying opportunities for traders going forward, and I believe that there is a massive support level underneath at the 3600 level as well.

I have no interest in shorting this market, because quite frankly this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility, but more than anything else it will see people looking to take advantage of all of that cheap and free money that seems to come towards Wall Street occasionally. Stimulus, quantitative easing, and the like have been going on for 13 years and I do not see that changing anytime soon as the cycle has repeated multiple times.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Gives Up Early Gains

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied initially during the course of the week, only to turn things around and show signs of exhaustion. The candlestick for the week is a shooting star, just as the previous week was. This tells me that the crude oil market is almost certainly running out of steam, and I do think that it is only a matter of time before we perhaps make a move down to the $50 level. After that, the market could go bit lower, perhaps reaching down to the $47.50 level before finding significant support from the weekly timeframe. At this point, a lot of people are concerned about stimulus, and therefore crude oil markets may drop as a result.

WTI Oil Video 25.01.21

Brent

Brent markets have also tried to rally during the course of the week, showing signs of strength to reach towards the 200 week EMA. The 200 week EMA has offered enough resistance to turn things around and show signs of exhaustion. At this point, the Brent market looks as if it is ready to fall towards the $50 level, an area that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and is also where we are starting to see the 50 week EMA reach towards. That being the case, I think it makes sense that we trying to give back some of the initial gains from the last couple of weeks as stimulus looks to be more difficult to achieve than originally thought, and the size of it certainly is going to be smaller than the $1.9 trillion that Joe Biden asked for.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Show Demand

The S&P 500 initially fell during the course of the trading session on Friday to reach towards the 3800 level. The 3800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that did cause a lot of noise previously as far as resistance is concerned. The fact that we pulled back there to only find buyers again suggests to me that we are ready to continue with the next leg higher. The candlestick suggests that we are going to find plenty of buyers underneath. To the upside, the market is likely to continue to look forward due to the idea of stimulus more than anything else.

S&P 500 Video 25.01.21

When you look at the chart from a longer-term standpoint, the 4000 level is the target for longer-term traders, due to the fact that we have been consolidating in a 400 point range between 3200 and 3600 above. That 400 point range extrapolates from the breakout to reach towards that 4000 level. Furthermore, the market does tend to like these big figures as targets and therefore it all is somewhat tidy. I do not know how long it takes to get there, but one thing that Wall Street might be concerned about down the road is that stimulus is perhaps threatened as far as size is concerned, and of course the timing as there are some objections to all of that.

Nonetheless, longer-term Wall Street knows that if it throws a big enough tantrum the Federal Reserve and Congress will bail them out. With that in mind, buying the dips should continue to work over the longer term with such bullish pressure underneath.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Undulate on Friday

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. By forming the candlestick that it did, it does suggest that perhaps market participants are going to continue to see a lot of volatility, but one thing you should pay attention to now is the weekly chart. The weekly chart has formed the second shooting star in a row. This does not suggest strength at this point, and I believe we are going to have to pay very close attention to the longer-term big picture. The stimulus was the original driver of oil going higher, but quite frankly the “reflation trade” is starting to find some doubters now.

Crude Oil Video 25.01.21

Brent

Brent markets also fell during the trading session on Friday, breaking below the $55 level one point. We have formed a bit of a hammer, so this shows that there continues to be a bit of resiliency in this market. Having said that, this also has formed a couple of shooting stars and I think it is only a matter of time before we break down. This is mainly due to the fact that stimulus looks to be very threatened at the moment, not necessarily as to whether or not it is going to happen, but how big it is going to be. If we can break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the Friday session, then I think we go looking towards the 50 day EMA underneath which sits just above the $50 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Has Been All Over the Place

Silver markets have been back and forth during the course of the week, testing the $24 level for support. The $26 level above offers significant resistance, so at this point in time I think we continue to chop around in general. The candlestick does suggest that there might be a little bit of support here, and for what it is worth on the daily chart we have seen significant support right around the $24 level. I think ultimately this is a scenario where we continue to see choppy behavior but with more of an upward tilt than anything else.

SILVER Video 25.01.21

Stimulus is a bit of an open question right now, and that of course has a major influence on what happens with the US dollar. By extension, the US dollar greatly influences what happens next with silver. The silver market continues to be sensitive to stimulus because there is also a significant amount of industrial demand that could possibly come into play as well. The choppiness that we have seen over the last couple of months will more than likely continue to be the way this market moves, based upon the indecision that is almost certainly going to be part of the stimulus, but at the end of the day there will be a certain amount.

It is more about the size and timing of the stimulus at this point than anything else. Central banks around the world continue to flood the markets with liquidity, thereby driving up the price of hard assets such as silver. I have no interest in shorting this market until we can break down below the $22 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Has Rough Week

Natural gas markets have broken down significantly during the course of the week to slice through the $2.60 level, and then reaching towards the $2.40 level. All things being equal, when you look at the longer-term chart you can make an argument for a bit of a head and shoulders, and therefore we could see a bit of a sellout. This makes quite a bit of sense as we are trading the March contract.

NATGAS Video 25.01.21

A breakdown below the $2.30 level could open up a move down towards the lows again, perhaps reaching as low as the $1.60 level. That being said, it does not necessarily mean that we get there right away, but as temperatures rise, demand for natural gas will of course plummet. Furthermore, the entire idea of stimulus making natural gas take off to the upside is a bit of a laugh, as it has not done it over the years and of course we are still oversupplied when it comes to natural gas it is not even funny.

I believe that rallies are to be sold into, especially near the $2.80 level which is already seen a significant amount of selling pressure in the past. At this point, any time we get a bit of a rally, it should be looked at with suspicion because the oversupply of natural gas is more of a longer-term structural problem than anything else. With this being the case and of course warmer temperatures, I only sell natural gas and have no interest in trying to buy it. In fact, I do not even have a scenario where I would be a buyer of this commodity.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Show Support

Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week, showing signs of volatility yet again, reaching down towards the 50 week EMA. However, we have bounced from there and formed a candlestick that is essentially a hammer. This suggests that we are possibly going to see a bit of a bounce but as long as stimulus is all over the place and we are not sure what is going to happen with that scenario, it is obvious that we need to be very patient with the trade if we are involved in it.

Gold Price Predictions Video 25.01.20

If we can break above the highs of the week, that more than likely opens up the possibility of a move towards the $1900 level. Above there we then could see a move towards the $1960 level, but it may take some time to make that happen. After all, we are not completely sure about what happens next with the stimulus, just that there will be one. The stimulus probably will not be as big as originally thought, and that of course is something to pay close attention to. That could give a little bit of a lifeline to the US dollar in the short term, as it is oversold anyway.

As far as selling gold is concerned, I have no interest in doing so until we break below the $1700 level which would be a pretty significant move. Longer-term, I believe that we are going to go looking towards the $2100 level, but it may take a significant amount of effort to finally get there. Gold continues to be choppy, but it seems as if it is trying to form some type of bottoming pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Silver Price Forecast -Silver Markets Bounce From 50 Day EMA

Silver markets have plunged below the 50 day EMA during the trading session on Friday to show signs of weakness, but we have turned around to continue the overall push to the upside from the recent bounce. When you look at the candlestick, it does make a little bit of a hammer, but given enough time I think what we are struggling with is the $26 level. If we can break above, there then it is likely that silver will continue much higher. Keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to the value of the US dollar, and the overall idea of stimulus. Stimulus is a main driver of expectations when it comes to interest rates, which by default will drive down the value of currency over the longer term.

SILVER Video 25.01.21

Another thing stimulus will do is drive up the demand use for industrial silver, which will also more than likely drive up the price. That being said, if we can break above the $26 level it opens up a move towards the $27.50 level, and then eventually the $28 level. Alternately, if we were to break down below the candlestick for the trading session on Friday, then we probably go looking towards the $24 level again, an area that has been important recently. I do not have any interest in selling silver, but I do recognize that you need to pick your spots due to the fact that silver contracts can be quite volatile and cause massive problems for people’s accounts if they are not careful. In general, this is a market that I think eventually goes higher but we probably have a lot of wood to chop in the meantime.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.