Gold Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell hard on Thursday, losing more than $50 an ounce. The selloff was in concert with a move down in many of the larger commodity markets dues to fears of European debt contagion and the impasse that the US “Super Committee” seems to be in at the moment. As a result, many markets sold off. The long term outlook for gold is still very good, but because of this new round of fear, we could see some more room to the downside in this market. We still like buying gold at lower levels. The $1,700 level is the first mark that would interest us, and depending on what the daily candle looks like in that area, we could buy. For now, the market looks like it needs to have a few days to shake out the weak longs and as a result we are flat of this market for a few sessions.

USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY fell again on Thursday as traders continue to express a real lack of confidence in the global markets. The Bank of Japan has been intervening in the markets, pushing prices higher form time to time. The pair is in “No Man’s Land” at the moment, and cannot be bought or sold at these levels. The lower area around the 76 mark could invite intervention again, and a buy position down there could be enticing. Until we get down there, we don’t have much in the way of desires to trade this pair though.

USD/CHF Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair had a fairly quiet day on Thursday, but did form a small hammer of sorts. The pair is approaching the recent highs, and if the 0.93 handle gives way – this pair should continue much higher. If that is the case, our first target is 0.95, and then parity. The Swiss Franc simply cannot be bought at this point because of the SNB and its threats of intervention. We like buying dips in this pair going forward.

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pushed higher on Thursday, testing the 1.03 handle again. The 1.03 level is the top of the recent consolidation area, and the sight of massive resistance. The breaking of this area on a daily close would have us buying again, and a break of the 1.07 level has us holding onto a longer-term position. The pair could pullback, but the last two days have shown the real pressure is to the upside at the moment as the highs have pressed the 1.03 level.

NZD/USD Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell on Thursday as traders continue to sell risk-related assets around the world. The Kiwi will be especially sensitive to the commodity markets as it is one of the well documented “Com Dolls”, and moves with the overall sentiment of commodity markets in general. As long as there are issues in the global debt markets, especially Europe, this pair falls. The 0.75 level below looks very supportive, and if it gives way – 0.70 is more than likely going to be seen. We can’t buy this pair right now as there is simply far too much headline risk out there.

GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair rose during the Thursday session, although it did manage to fall late in the day. The pair punched through the 1.57 level, only to fall back below it by the end of the day. The pair is presently under serious pressure, and a break of the Thursday lows should send this pair much lower over time. The 1.55 level is supportive in our minds, so we expect a stop at that point in the down move. However, with the risk profile in the global markets – this pair could fall much lower.

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD rose back above the 1.35 level on Thursday, only to fall back below it. The resulting candle for the session is a shooting star at the bottom of a down move – always a bad sign as it shows a rally that failed. Because of this, we would sell even more Euros if the bottom of the Thursday range gives way to the downside. It has become obvious that rallies are to be sold as well in this market. The poor bond auctions in the EU continue, and as long as they do – there will be serious pressure on the Euro in general.

EUR/CHF Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF rose slightly during the Thursday session, but still remains under the 1.25 level. The 1.25 area looks like a buy area for us if we can close above it. The breaking on a daily close has us holding onto a long position for a long-term move. The biggest problem is that in order to buy the Euro, you would have to think the EU has got it all together…..which it clearly doesn’t. Someday this is a long-term buy and hold, but that day isn’t today. The SNB has put in a floor to this pair at 1.20, and any break below that would certainly invite intervention. Because of this, the downside is limited at best.

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 18th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair broke below the parity level on Thursday, and continued its bearish tone overall. The 0.99 level below should be somewhat supportive, and if that area gives way – this pair should fall much, much lower. The upside is going to be difficult in this pair at this point in time as it is so risk sensitive. The world’s markets are getting nervous, and this is never a good thing for the Aussie. We like selling a break below 0.99, and any rallies that present themselves.

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD finally broke below the 1.35 level on Wednesday as traders continue to worry about the debt crisis which seems to be getting worse each day in Europe. The Italian 10 year bonds started to fall in yield to just above 7%, but only because of the buying by the ECB. In fact, it seems the only buyer is the ECB presently. Spanish bonds are selling off, as well as French and Dutch. The EU is quickly seeing the effects of financial contagion. The Euro has to be thought of as toxic now, and any rally should be a selling opportunity at this point. As long as we can stay below 1.35, this market should fall much farther.

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell slightly during the session on Wednesday, but only slightly so. The Bank of Japan is still supporting this pair, and as long as they do – the selloff will be slow. The pair cannot be bought, and quite frankly – cannot be sold at this point either. Because of this, we feel waiting until much lower levels to buy could be the next trade, as we would be getting in line to be there when the Bank of Japan intervenes yet again. In the mean time, there is no trade.

USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair has fallen again on Wednesday as the Bank of England reiterated fears of a weak economy, and the EU situation affecting the UK. Europe is good for 30% of the United Kingdom’s exports, and the UK banks are heavily exposed to EU debt and banks as well. Because of this, there is talk of another round of quantitative easing in the UK, and the Pound should get hit for this.

With this in mind, we have switched to a short position as the 1.58 level gave way. We think the 1.55 is the next area this pair will head to, and perhaps even lower to the 1.50 before it is all said and done. Also of note is support at the 1.53 level. We are selling rallies and will not buy the Pound at this point.

GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair had a back and forth session on Wednesday essentially ending the session at unchanged. The pair has been grinding higher lately as a run to the Dollar continues. The Swiss National Bank is presently working against a higher Franc, so the correct direction is up in this pair. The breaking of 0.93 sends this pair much higher with the first target at 0.95, and a longer-term target at parity.

USD/CHF Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis USD/CHF Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast Nov. 17, 2011, Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair has sat still again on Wednesday as the market is essentially frozen. The pair is being supported by the Swiss National Bank and now has a “floor” of 1.20 as stated by the SNB. With this being said, the Euro could rise to astonishing heights if the debt crisis could be solved. Unfortunately, the EU just doesn’t seem to be up to the task at this point. The pair cannot fall too far, with the floor being put in. Because of this, we aren’t interested in trading this pair at the moment.

EUR/CHF Forecast Nov. 17, 2011, Technical Analysis EUR/CHF Forecast Nov. 17, 2011, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF Forecast Nov. 17, 2011, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell again on Wednesday as traders sell off risky assets. The pair is presently supported at the parity level, and that will be the key to our next trade in this pair. At present levels, we have no trade, but would be interested in buying on supportive candles at parity, or selling if we close below that level. Until then, we are sitting tight in this pair. Even with a pop higher, we think that the 1.05 level is the top of the market for a while.

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical AnalysisAUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair had a wild day during the Wednesday session as various factors continue to push and pull at it. The oil markets broke well above the $100 level, which is very bullish for the Canadian dollar. However, the possible downgrading of US banks as a result of exposure to EU banks by Fitch has spooked the markets into buying the Dollar for its “safe haven” status. At the end of the day, a long-legged doji was formed. The 1.03 held as resistance, but if it gives – this pair could go much farther. The parity level should be supportive, and probably so down to the 0.99 level. The pair remains range bound at the moment, and as such – we trade it as a scalper’s pair and only aim for a few dozen pips at a time.

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD fell again on Wednesday as traders continue to shrug off risk assets, of which the Kiwi is very much tied to. The pair seems like it is making a beeline to the 0.75 level, and could see it in short order. The pair should be sold on rallies, and if the 0.75 level gets broken through, we could see a massive move down at this point. We are not willing to buy the Kiwi at all anymore, at least until the debt issues worldwide are taken care of.

NZD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical AnalysisNZD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The CL contract broke out during the Wednesday session as traders continue to plow into the oil trade. The inventory drawdown number was better than expected, so this continues to press for the bullish case in this market. Even with the EU growth problems, it appears the oil markets are in full bull mode. The $100 level should now be support, and we are willing to buy pullbacks at this point.

Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

 

Crude Oil Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Brent

The Brent markets fell during the Wednesday session, and retested the $110 level as support. The market is presently consolidating just above this level, and the market looks like it is quite comfortable in this arrange. Because of this, and the fact that the CL has risen and broke out, we much prefer trading the CL over this contract.

Brent Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Natural gas continued to fall on Wednesday as the trend press on. The downward momentum in this market is momentous at this point as well. The $3.50 gave way a few days ago, and as such we entered into a new range. The downward pressure should continue to press on, and we are willing to sell any and all rallies at this point. The $4 level is considered crucial to the downtrend, and if we somehow break above that – we would have to rethink things. Until then – we are massively bearish.

Natural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical AnalysisNatural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

 

Natural Gas Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell slightly on Wednesday as traders continue to mull the various issues coming out of the EU. The gold markets are decidedly in an uptrend at the moment, and have been for over 10 years. Because of this, buying is the way to go in this market, and we think that pullbacks are simple invitations to buy more at this point. The $1,750 level should be supportive in the market, and we will continue to buy dips until that area, and perhaps even the $1,700 level gets broken to the downside. $1,800 could be somewhat resistive, but should only be so in a temporary and minor way.

Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis

 

Gold Forecast Nov. 17th, 2011, Technical Analysis