The GBP/USD pair took off this past week, and even managed to break above the 1.60 level – an area that had been very resistive. The market shot straight up to the 1.6150 area, which was supportive several months ago. This area could produce some resistance, and with the parabolic nature of this move – provide a much needed pullback. Until we close on the daily below 1.60 though, we are not willing to sell this pair. We like the idea of seeing a daily candle close somewhere near 1.60 showing a supportive tone – and then buying. If we break below 1.60, this pair becomes another selling pair at that point.
The USD/CHF fell during the week, and is currently heading down towards the all-important 0.85 level. The area is the beginning of the Swiss National Bank’s intervention candle, and as such we feel that the pair should be supported in this area. We are looking for supportive candles in the 0.85 zone, and will wait until then to buy. We cannot sell – the SNB will make sure to punish those that do. A daily candle will do just as well as a supportive weekly one at the 0.85 level it should be said.
The EUR/CHF pair fell again over the previous week. The pair looks like it is willing to go back and retest the 1.20 level. The area is a “floor” in this pair as the Swiss National Bank has announced that it can “no longer tolerate the EUR/CHF below the 1.20 level.” As a result, we think that will be the area to look for longer-term buy signals, but with all of the problems and news risk coming out of Europe, we think that the buy signal might be some time form here.
AUD/USD shot straight up during the past week, and eclipsed the all-important 1.05 level in the process. Because of this, the market looks very bullish all of the sudden and we think that it should be bought on dips. The 1.05 level will be our “line in the sand’ as it tells us which side of the trade we want to be on at this point. If we get a pullback to that level and see supportive action – we want to buy. If we see price break down past it, we would sell. We don’t want to buy at these levels, the market looks a bit overbought at this point.
The USD/CAD pair smashed through the parity level this past week and into the 0.99 support level with relative ease. The preceding week’s shooting star was the hint, but the parity level was just below. Now that we are under that level, we think the easiest route is to the downside. However, we expect the down move to be a slow grind, not a fast move. We like selling rallies until we close above the parity level, but would have to do that on shorter time frames, but keeping the longer-term weekly charts in mind. A weekly close above the parity level is needed to think about longs.
The natural gas markets exploded to the upside on Friday to end the week slightly higher. However, the trend is so far to the downside that we simply cannot in good faith even suggest that the idea of going long is a wise one. We think that any bounce is an opportunity to sell from higher levels. The $4 mark should continue to be a resistive area, and we would be looking for signs of weakness in that area. We think that even if the bounce gets above that area, $42.5 will certainly be too much for this market to overcome. The market is to be sold only, and rallies with a hint of weakness at the end of them are perfect chances to sell.
The gold markets had a strong upward over the last few days. The issues in Europe are finally being addressed, and the Fed has hinted that QE3 isn’t necessarily off the table at this point. Status Quo – gold goes up, Euro goes up, and Fed kills the USD. However, there are serious questions in the EU about CDS and other such issues. Because of this, we think that gold could also get a “safe haven” play out of the market as well. Either way – gold should go up. We have found the market stalling at $1,750 at the end of the week, so a pullback could be coming. This should give you a better buying opportunity if you are willing to wait for the pullback.
Light Sweet Crude
CL had a negative day on Friday, but the high from the shooting star on Tuesday is in sight. A breaking of that level, $95, should send the market back up to the $100 mark before it is all said and done. We like buying, but not until we close above $95, or on dips at this point.
The Brent markets fell on Friday as traders retreated from the $112.50 level. The market is finding that area massively resistive, and as such we aren’t buying in this area. However, we need to see the market fall a bit lower before we are ready to sell. The $107.50 level should be the support area that we are to watch. The breaking of that level on the daily close gets us selling.
The natural gas markets exploded to the upside on Friday as traders took a positive tone into the weekend. In reality, the $3.75 has been very supportive, so a bounce in this area isn’t a complete surprise. Also, we must keep in mind that the $4 level is just above, and should be massively resistive. The market looks like it will perhaps pop a little bit more, but with the massive downtrend we feel that this will only provide another selling opportunity. We sell rallies on signs of weakness, and never buy this market.
The gold markets had a very quiet day on Friday after a large move upwards over the last few days. This is common as a parabolic move will often consolidate as traders take a breath. The market probably has a pullback in it, but with the recent action, we would have to think that a pullback will certainly be nothing more than a buying opportunity at this point. We can’t sell the market, at least not until we get below $1,600 – which is a long way below. We like buying dips, and will aggressively do so.
Light Sweet Crude
CL exploded to the upside on Thursday as euphoria overcame the market in response to the EU bailout agreement. As the US dollar got sold off, commodities gained overall during the session. The highs from the Tuesday session need to be broken in order for us to get massively bullish, and we see that shooting star as the next hurdle that has to get broken in order to buy. We think that the market will more than likely climb – but until it gets over that level – we will wait. $100 is massive resistance, and it seems that the market might settle in a range below it, perhaps from $90 to $100.
Brent markets acted in a very similar manner on Thursday as they shot straight up as well. The $112.50 level is keeping a cap on the action, and the level is the start of massive resistance all the way up to $120. Until the $120 level is broken above, we can’t buy Brent, even though it looks strong at this point. Selling isn’t possible until we get below $107.50 or so on a daily close.
Natural gas markets had a wild swing in both directions during the Thursday session as it was reported that there was a larger build in the inventory numbers in America than previously expected. The market continues to look weak, and the trend is still massively to the downside at this point in time. We are selling rallies, and see the $3.75 level as the biggest hurdle for shorts now, but cannot buy. We like selling the rallies based upon weakness below $4, and on shorter time frames at this time.
The gold markets rocketed again on Thursday as traders continued to buy into the “risk on” trade now that the EU has come out with at least the start of some kind of plan now. The concerns of course are that the measures aren’t enough, and that would weaken the value of currency as well. Because of this, safety trade or risk on trade – either one is going to be good for gold, and as we have stated over the last several days, gold is entering another massive bull run, as we suspect the market will run to the highs again. The market should be bought on dips, and we will continue to do so as long as we are above the $1,600 level.
The USD/JPY had another down day on Thursday, but bounced yet again around the 75.50 area. The pair looks like it is trying to base at this area. The pair looks like it is trying as hard as possible to stay in the recent range, but the Bank of Japan has been quite vocal about its dislike of the falling value of this pair, and one has to wonder how long it will be before they intervene. The pair cannot be sold because of that, but the lows are starting to get lower. At best, this pair should be bought in small quantities, but avoiding this pair altogether isn’t necessarily a bad idea either.
The USD/CHF pair fell hard on Thursday as the USD was sold off against almost all other currencies around the world. This was in response to the EU finally releasing the bailout plan that has been long awaited. The EUR/USD rose, and the USD fell against all else. The selling of the USD even spilled into this market, one that is artificially being propped up. The Swiss National Bank is actively working against the Franc, and to see it strengthen against the USD shows just how bad the Dollar is right now. We see 0.85 as massive support at this point, and are looking to see if supportive daily candles form here in the next couple of days. We don’t sell, as we don’t want to tempt the Swiss into action.
The USD/CAD sliced right through the parity level on Thursday as the EU finally came out with a bailout plan. The commodities markets took off as the US dollar was sold off against everything. The oil markets really took off, and as a result – the CAD became much desired. The closing on a daily candle well below the parity level has us thinking sell now, but it should be noted that the next 200 pips or so are likely to be a grind as there are a lot of orders in this area. We like selling rallies, at least until we close above parity on the daily chart.
The GBP/USD rose again on Thursday as it reacted to the good news of a EU bailout agreement. The pair has now broken above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and now look set to move much higher. Based upon the Wednesday candle, it looks as though the 1.60 level should end up being supportive at this point, and buying can only be done as long as we are above that area. Buying on dips is probably going to be the best way to go about this pair until we get lower than the 1.60, and as the world gets more and more comfortable with the results of that bailout, this pair should continue to rise.
The EUR/USD pair shot up during the Thursday session as the EU finally came out with a bailout plan, and so far it looks like the markets like it. The move was quick and strong, and it appears the trend has change, at least for the short-term. The pair looks to have a floor in it at this point in time – somewhere near the 1.39 level. The pair should continue to provide a good “buy on the dips” scenario for a while at least. The final details for the plan aren’t out yet, so there are going to be numerous headline risks in this pair. Tight stops are recommended, but a positive tone is certainly surrounding the pair at the moment. We cannot sell until we close below 1.40 on the daily chart again.
The EUR/CHF pair sat fairly still during the Thursday session, which was odd considering how the Euro absolutely took off against the Dollar. This in concert with the Italian debt yields still leaves some real doubts as to the length of this relief. The Swiss National Bank has put in a “floor” at the 1.20 level, and this could keep this pair higher. But knowing this, the market still didn’t buy this pair at all. Odd, and worrisome to be honest. The pair could be a harbinger of more Euro troubles to come. Maybe you cannot trade this pair right now, but the truth is that it can be an indicator for the overall strength of the Euro, no matter what it does against the USD.
The AUD/USD rose absolutely skyrocketed on Thursday as the EU presented a bailout package finally. The commodity trade was on in all markets as the US dollar got sold off. The pair has reached a gap that appeared in August, and found it resistive. However, the most important level has been broken – the 1.05 level. This is very bullish for the AUD, and we think that the trend upward should continue. As long as we stay above the 1.05 level, this pair should continue to be a “buy only” pair. We like buying dips on shorter time frames.